Freedonia Focus Reports

US Collection

Macroeconomy:
United States

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March 2013

Highlights

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Macroeconomy Overview
GDP Trends | GDP Segmentation | Retail Sales Segmentation | Labor Force Trends
Interest Rate Trends | NAFTA Overview

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Resources

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Macroeconomy Forecasts
GDP Forecasts | Retail Sales Forecasts | Labor Force Forecasts

www.freedoniafocus.com

Macroeconomy: United States

ABOUT THIS REPORT

Scope & Method
This report forecasts US gross domestic product (GDP) and retail sales in nominal or
current US dollars, and the size of the labor force to 2017. GDP is segmented in terms
of expenditures by:







durables
nondurables
services
net exports
nonresidential fixed investment
residential fixed investment
federal government
state and local government.

Retail sales are segmented in terms of durables and nondurables by:











general hardware
automotive dealers
furniture and furnishings
electronics and appliances
other durables such as sporting goods
general merchandise
food and beverage stores
gasoline service stations
apparel and accessory stores
eating and drinking places
healthcare and drug stores
other nondurables such as pet supplies.

To illustrate historical trends GDP, retail sales, the labor force, and selected segment
categories (eg, durables in aggregate for retail sales) are provided in annual series from
2002 to 2012. The full complement of segments listed above is reported at five-year
intervals for 2007 and 2012.
Forecasts emanate from the identification and analysis of pertinent statistical
relationships and other historical trends/events as well as their expected
progression/impact over the forecast period. Changes in quantities between reported
years of a given total or segment are typically provided in terms of five-year compound
©

2013 by The Freedonia Group, Inc.

Macroeconomy: United States

annual growth rates (CAGRs). For the sake of brevity, forecasts are generally stated in
smoothed CAGR-based descriptions to the forecast year, such as “demand is projected
to rise 3.2% annually through 2016.” The result of any particular year over that period,
however, may exhibit volatility and depart from a smoothed, long-term trend, as
historical data typically illustrate.
Other various topics, including interest rates and NAFTA GDP, are covered in this
report. A full outline of report items by page is available in the Table of Contents.

Sources
Macroeconomy: United States represents the synthesis and analysis of data from
various secondary, macroeconomic, and demographic sources including:





government/public agencies
national, regional, and international non-governmental organizations
trade associations and their publications
the business and trade press
The Freedonia Group Consensus Forecasts dated December 2012
and January 2013
the findings of other industry studies by The Freedonia Group.

Specific sources and additional resources are listed in the Resources section of this
publication for reference and to facilitate further research.

Copyright and Licensing
The full report is protected by copyright laws of the United States of America and
international treaties. The entire contents of the publication are copyrighted by The
Freedonia Group, Inc.

©

2013 by The Freedonia Group, Inc.

Macroeconomy: United States

Table of Contents
Section

Page

Highlights....................................................................................................................................................... 1
Macroeconomy Overview.............................................................................................................................. 2
GDP Trends ............................................................................................................................................. 2
Chart 1 | United States: GDP Trends, 2002-2012 .............................................................................. 2
GDP Segmentation .................................................................................................................................. 3
Chart 2 | United States: GDP Trends by Expenditure Segment, 2002-2012 ..................................... 3
Personal Consumption. ...................................................................................................................... 3
Investment. ......................................................................................................................................... 5
Government. ....................................................................................................................................... 7
Net Exports. ........................................................................................................................................ 8
Retail Sales Segmentation..................................................................................................................... 10
Chart 3 | United States: Retail Sales Trends by Type, 2002-2012................................................... 10
Durables. .......................................................................................................................................... 10
Nondurables. .................................................................................................................................... 12
Labor Force Trends ............................................................................................................................... 14
Chart 4 | United States: Civilian Labor Force Trends, 2002-2012, million people ........................... 14
Interest Rate Trends .............................................................................................................................. 16
Chart 5 | United States: Federal Funds Rate Trends, 2002-2012 .................................................... 16
NAFTA Overview ................................................................................................................................... 17
Chart 6 | NAFTA: GDP Trends by Country, 2002-2012 ................................................................... 17
Macroeconomy Forecasts ........................................................................................................................... 18
GDP Forecasts ...................................................................................................................................... 18
Table 1 | United States: GDP by Expenditure Segment (billion dollars) .......................................... 18
Personal Consumption. .................................................................................................................... 18
Investment. ....................................................................................................................................... 19
Government. ..................................................................................................................................... 20
Net Exports. ...................................................................................................................................... 20
Retail Sales Forecasts ........................................................................................................................... 22
Table 2 | United States: Retail Sales by Type (billion dollars) .......................................................... 22
Durables. .......................................................................................................................................... 22
Nondurables. .................................................................................................................................... 23
Labor Force Forecasts ........................................................................................................................... 25
Table 3 | United States: Civilian Labor Force (million people) ......................................................... 25
Employed. ......................................................................................................................................... 25
Unemployed. ..................................................................................................................................... 25
Resources ................................................................................................................................................... 26
To return here, click on any Freedonia logo or the Table of Contents link in report footers.
PDF bookmarks are also available for navigation.

©

2013 by The Freedonia Group, Inc.

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