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STA 4321 Introduction to Probability Spring 2013

Exam 1

Name: UF-ID:

Instructions: There are 100 total points. You must show your work to receive credit. Read each part of each question carefully. There are 5 problems on 6 pages. You are responsible for checking that your exam is complete.

You may use the following facts/formulas without proof: Mean and Variance: If X is a random variable, then E(X) = and Var(X) = E[(X E(X))2 ] = E(X 2 ) [E(X)]2 .
yRange(X)

y pX (y)

Binomial Distribution: If X Bin(n, p), then the probability mass function (pmf) of X is pX (j) = n j p (1 p)nj , j j {0, 1, ..., n}.

Also, E(X) = np and Var(X) = np(1 p). Geometric Distribution: If X Geometric(p), then pX (j) = p(1 p)j , Also, E(X) =
1p p

FX (j) = 1 (1 p)j+1 ,
1p . p2

j {0, 1, 2, ...}.

and Var(X) =

Bayes Theorem For Two-Set Partitions: If A and B are events, then P (A|B) = P (B|A)P (A) , P (B|A)P (A) + P (B|A)P (A)

provided that all of the conditional probabilities above are well-dened. Counting Rules: The number of ways of choosing r objects from a set A containing N objects is: With Replacement Nr
N +r1 r

Order Matters Order Doesnt Matter Where

N r

Without Replacement P N r
N r

N! r!(N r)!

and P

N r

N! . (N r)!

STA 4321, Exam 1 1. Suppose that X is a random variable such that P (X = 1) = p and P (X = 0) = 1 p for some 0 < p < 1. (a) (4 points) What is the name of the distribution that X follows? (b) (6 points) Graph the cdf of X when p = 2 . (Recall the cdf of X is FX (a) = 5 P (X a) for a (, ).) (c) (5 points) Show that E(X) = p. (d) (5 points) Show that Var(X) = p(1 p).

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STA 4321, Exam 1 2. A box contains one fair coin and one coin with a head on each side. Suppose that a coin is selected at random and that it is tossed three times. Let X = the number of heads observed. (a) (3 points) What theorem can we use to determine the probability that the coin is fair, given that X = 3? (b) (10 points) What is the probability that the coin is fair, given that X = 3? (c) (4 points) What is the pmf of X? (d) (3 points) What is E(X)?

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STA 4321, Exam 1 3. Darryl receives a shipment consisting of many boxes of paper. He knows that 10% of all paper shipments are bad. For the bad shipments, an individual box is defective with probability 1 , independently of the other boxes in the shipment, while for the 3 1 good shipments an individual box is defective with probability 10 , independently of the other boxes in the shipment. Darryl checks 4 boxes from the shipment at random. Let X be the number of defective boxes Darryl nds. Suppose he nds that X = 2 of the boxes are defective. (a) (3 points) What is the name of the distribution of X? (b) (3 points) If the shipment was a good shipment, what is the probability that X = 2? (c) (3 points) If the shipment was a bad shipment, what is the probability that X = 2? (d) (5 points) Given that X = 2, what is the probability that the shipment is bad? (You do not have to simplify your answer; if you werent able to answer parts (b) and (c), you can get partial credit on this by just writing down the appropriate formula.) Suppose the shipment is a bad shipment, and instead of checking 4 boxes Darryl decides to check boxes until he nds a defective box. Let Y = the number of nondefective boxes Darryl opens before nding a defective box. (e) (3 points) What is the name of the distribution of Y ? (f) (3 points) What is E(Y )?

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STA 4321, Exam 1 4. A four digit number abcd between 0000 and 9999 is chosen at random. (a) (7 points) What is the probability that all digits of abcd are dierent? (b) (7 points) What is the probability that |a d| = 4? (c) (6 points) What is the probability that abcd contains exactly 3 distinct digits (by exactly 3 distinct digits I mean number like 4322 or 1312)? Hint: a 4 digit number with exactly 3 distinct digits occurs if and only if one digit occurs exactly twice, and the two remaining digits occur exactly once each.

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STA 4321, Exam 1 5. Suppose that 10 cards, of which 5 are red and 5 are green, are placed one each into 10 envelopes, of which 5 are red and 5 are green. Let X = the number of letters placed in envelopes of matching colors. (a) (6 points) What is P (X = 2)? (Hint: this was a homework problem.) (b) (4 points) What is P (X = 3)? (Hint: this is easy.) (c) (4 points) What is Range(X)? (d) (4 points) What is P (X = 4)? (e) (2 points) Write down the pmf of X (you do not have to show your work).

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