Health Strategy

Green Development Agenda Policy Reform Unit Pakistan Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf

Pakistan - A Gift of Allah
• Unique Natural Heritage and assets :
– Most inclined countries in the world – World’s highest mountains & Largest plateau – Four full seasons – Extensive river and largest canal system – 10 ecological zones
– 225 Protected Areas (PAs) – 14 national parks – 99 wildlife sanctuaries / 96 game reserves.

– Forests & wetlands – Diverse biodiversity & wildlife
– 174 species of mammals and 668 species of birds – 198 native and introduced freshwater fish species – More than 5500 species of vascular plants

Pakistan – Wasted potential !
• Natural resources under stress and environmental inefficiencies not being plugged
– Water - Scarcity going up : • Storage capacity at 9% while world average is 40% – Water - Delivery efficiency : • 35-40% from canal head to root zone – Forests – High rate of deforestation – Energy - Thermal generation efficiency low • 25-35% while world average is 55% – Energy- Distribution losses high : • 23% which is very high – Energy Security - Capacity of strategic energy reserves low : • 29 days compared to 60 days (US) and 90 days (EU)

• Overall : • inefficient economy but with a high inherent potential for win-win improvements

Development pathway – unsustainable
• Environmental costs – show alarming situation:
– Environmental degradation costs 6% of GDP
(Rs 365 billion/annum)

– Air pollution (indoor/urban air) – 50% – Water pollution (sanitation/hygeine) – 30% – Land degradation (reduce agri productivity) – 20%
• Estimates do not include degradation of coastal/marine environment

• Climate Change further exacerbating the situation..

Pakistan – where we are on climate front?
A very low emitter but one of the worst victims of climate change:
•Maple-croft vulnerability index places us in High/Extreme category •German-watch places Pakistan as “Most affected” for 2010 and in “Top 10” for 1990-2010
Ran k 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Country CRI Score 3.5 6.33 8.0 11.0 14.67 17 17.83 19.67 23.50 24.17 Death Toll 1891 229 320 56165 139 24 151 47 2889 27 Deaths per 100000 inhabitants 1.1 1.59 0.70 39.3 1.73 0.81 0.40 0.44 0.22 0.35 Absolute Losses (M $ PPP) 25316 1969 7544 5537 220 1314 4745 1749 33395 262 Losses per unit GDP in % 5.42 2.80 1.73 0.25 0.65 1.73 0.66 0.71 0.33 1.77 HDI

Pakistan Guatemala Colombia Russia Honduras Oman Poland Portugal China Tajikistan

145 131 87 66 121 89 39 41 101 127

Basis of Vulnerability ?
Glacial Melting Zone

…….In a neighborhood of Unavoidable “vulnerability” with main issue being “WATER”...…too much and too little both cause serious consequences

Natural Disasters
• Maximum natural disasters (90% in the Table) are climate related.
– The damage costs of these natural disasters is going up with the top three disasters occurring in the past three years – The frequency of these natural disasters is going up with 60% occurring in the past 10 years.
Disaster 1 Flood 2 Earthquake 3 Storm 4 Flood 5 Flood 6 Flood 7 Flood 8 2007 327118 1976 505000 1973 661500 1992 1000000 2007 1620000 2005 5200000 2010 9500000 Date Damage (000 US$)

Drought
9 Flood 10

1999
2001

247000
246000

Flood

2008

103000

The price tag !
Method Time period
Cost of adaptation per annum

Actual (2010)

One year (2010)

9.7++

As a percent of GDP

2010-2050

10.71

Per Capita Basis Disaster Modeling (Floods only * 3)

2010-2050 7.12 to 14.0 2010-2050 6.09 to 11.3

• Adaptation to climate change is going to be a high value figure in the future • (U$ 6-14 bn/yr)

Pakistan – mirroring the wrong global trends…..
54% growth in population from 1990 to 2008 …. Already the 6th most populous country (WB)

10,000 BC 1 AD 1800 AD 1950 AD 2000 AD 2011 AD 2050 AD

= = = = = = =

5 million 150 million 1 billion 2.5 billion 6.1 billion 7 billion 9 billion

Pakistan – mirroring the wrong global trends…..
•Pakistan ’ s GHG emissions, though still very low, show a rising trend •Poised to go up 15 times in next 40 years based on a coal based growth projection

GHG Emissions at 42 GtCO2e/ annum are 5 times what Earth can absorb (UNEP) Energy is main culprit

UNEP ETB

Pakistan – mirroring the wrong global trends…..
The urbanization challenge :
•Pakistan has highest urbanization rate in South Asia (1990-2025) •Searching for sustainable cities to absorb influx

Our foot is stuck on the accelerator and we are……………..…..

Global trends demand a re-think Green Economy
• The original growth model being revisited, revised and improved….but…

Still searching for a definition ?

PTI endeavors to lead Pakistan in this direction…

Harnessing the Strengths

A shifting global view
The Most Dangerous Nation - 2008 The World’s Bravest Nation – 2010-11

Why?
• Growing recognition of Pakistan as a “strong and resilient nation” and a “survival economy” which in the past decade has absorbed and sustained :
– Two mega-floods (2010-11) – Two cyclones in the South – Massive Earthquake – Influx of IDP ’ s and continuing stream of Afghan refugees

• Moreover, a country which has braved the “security spillover” and associated economic drain of the War in Afghanistan.

Shaping a new “development governance”
– Partnership between Government-Business-Citizen – Citizen Sector - Emerging, independent and assertive
• Don’t wait –step in when Government slow or absent

– Backed by Indigenous philanthropy – one of the main pillars of social support and rising every year
• Rs 70 – 100 billion/year (1998)

– Sets the right priorities

Pakistan...a country with a BIG heart !
• Host to the largest number of refugees in the world (1.7 Million)

• Sustaining Highest number of refugees vis-à-vis its economic capacity

Pakistan …..innovating

• On ‘ Innovation Efficiency ’ Pakistan ’ s economy ranks an impressive 4th, ahead of all developed and developing countries except China “INSEAD Innovation Index 2011” • Pakistani businesses and entrepreneurs have shown extreme resilience and ingenuity in a very adverse environment - working with minimum resources to get impressive results. • Depicts Pakistan’s strong ‘can do’ attitude in the face of a wanting enabling environment

Pakistan in Next-11 (Goldman Sachs)……BUT
5 years back
Pakistan termed a country…. “ having a high latent potential of becoming, along with the BRICs, the world largest economies of the 21st century”

5 years of misrule and poor governance / eco mismgmt..
…… Still not being written off …….Still considered an Economy “waiting to happen”

Tipping Point
• Point demanding change …. make sustainable choices.
“Change is inevitable…..Growth is optional”
(John Maxwell)

• PTI aims to deliver change and sustainable growth

Where does PTI stand ?
• Pakistan’s only Political Party to :
– Include environmental conservation in its party Constitution Objectives:
– “To protect the environmental resources and ensure clean air, clean water and a sustainable growth in Pakistan in the face of emerging threats such as climate change”

• Entrust environmental responsibility within party structure • Include a focus on Environment in its election manifesto • Clearly outline its green development/environmental policy

What PTI is aiming for ?
Lead to an improved quality of life for citizens of Pakistan. Shift away from “BAU” growth trajectory resource inefficient and pollution laden

Provide opportunities for poverty eradication, encouraging innovation and creation of green jobs

Balance the needs of development and nature conservation

How PTI will “make it happen”?

Keys to Implementation Create the political “buy in”: Political ownership
• Party Constitution • Election Manifesto • Political mandate • Public obligation • Economic incentive

• Translate for Public appeal • Define in economic terms

State the “Obvious”
• Challenges and Solutions • Action not sloganeering

Contours of the Green Development Agenda

Policies and Plans – No dearth !
• Recent overarching Framework for Economic Growth (2011) • Vision 2030 National Planning Blueprint • Other relevant :
• • National Environment Policy National Sanitation Policy

• 5 year plans • MTDF (Medium Term Dev Framework 2005-10) • ADP (Annual Development Plans) • PRSP (Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper)-2001-3-7


• • • • • •

National Energy Conservation Policy
National Environmental Action Plan National Health Policy National Education Policy National Forestry Policy National Biodiversity Action Plan National Action Plan to combat desertification

National Climate Change Policy

Solutions – Not “rocket science”
• Problems are known • Strategies are plenty • Solutions are common sense

BUT Still…. The “obvious” still needs to be : Clearly stated Politically owned Backed by a solution driven approach

Defining “Green”…………….
Forestry Agriculture Climate Change Biodiversity • National Parks

Energy • Transport • Buildings • Industry Waste

Air

Valuing Nature

Water
• Wetlands

Green Development Agenda

Environmentl Awareness & Governance

Valuing Nature to Preserve Nature
• Properly Value the “life support systems” that nature provides (National Ecosystem Assessment) • Internalize and integrate true environmental costs in all economic decision making
– National “Eco budget” to be prepared with national budget to reflect the impacts on nature – Make natural CBA an integral part of EIAs

Water – the primary challenge……
Water Needs are going up
160 140 120
3000 2700 2400

Percapita Water Availibility (Cubic Meter)

Population

2100 1800 1500 1200 900

100 80 60 40 20

Existing storage capacity going down (18 MAF to 12 MAF)

600 300

0 0 1940-41 1950-51 1960-61 1971-72 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01

Years
Population Water Ava

Source: PCRWR, 2001

Climate change adding another Uncertain dimension - shrinking glaciers / Freshwater reserves
Rate of Glacial Receeding in Himalaya m/year
25 23

Yet….we are flushing more water into sea
meters

20

18

Annual Fresh Water Flow into Sea

15

Summers
1970-1990 1990-2000 34 MAF/yr 47 MAF/yr (40% increase)

Winter
1.86 MAF/yr 3.28 MAF/yr (76% increase)

10

7.3

5

0 1842- 1935 1935- 1990 1985- 2001

Period

Water – drinkable, clean and plenty
• Value water and treat as a precious resource • Improve water conservation
• Expand canal lining • Rainwater and flood harvesting

• Plug water wastage and improve storage capacity
• Build new water reservoirs / dams • Flood water management

• Clean Drinking water provision :
• Water filtration plants at each UC

• Clean up the sources
• Enforce water pollution standards • CETP facilities at ALL Industrial estates • Install water sewerage and drainage systems in ALL towns

• Ensure Minimum Indus discharge to prevent sea water intrusion

Wetlands – Restore and Preserve
Where we are ? • Constitute 8.5% of land area • Recognized by Ramsar for sustaining regional ecological processes and global biodiversity • 4 regions :
• (Northern alpine / Salt Range / Central Indus and Makran Coastal) • 22 different types covering a total of 220 wetlands

Rising to the challenge …. • Recognize as critically important ecosystems delivering multiple benefits :
– – – – Watersheds for reservoirs Regulation of water quality and quantity Natural habitat for various birds and fish Storehouses and sustainers of biodiversity – Tourism and recreation – Blue Carbon Storage – Biodiversity protection

• Under threat from water pollution and climate change

• Expand protection with proper management planning

Air – clean and breathable
• •

• •

Where we are ? Rising to the challenge …… Deteriorating air quality in all • Clean and affordable fuels – CNG big cities /LPG / Cleaner gasoline Air pollution is estimated to be • Clean-up Transport / Vehicles – Retirement of polluting vehicles 20 times higher than WHO – Establish and implement vehicle standards manufacturing standards Indoor air pollution (biomass – Improve traffic fuels) is also a big issue management/pedestrian/cycle paths – Vehicle check up system for air High and rising direct & indirect pollution – Yearly certificates economic costs
– Transport, industry, energy and deforestation the main sources of • Urban forestry sinks air pollution • Air monitoring system in all

• Mass Transit Systems – PP Partners

• Choking our population with major cities slow poisoning ? • Strict enforcement of industrial standards with incentives (SMART)

Energy – Affordable and sustainable
• • • Where we are ? A low GHG emitter but poised for major growth 15 fold increase expected in next 40 years Shift to coal powered electricity generation (imported + Thar coal) Huge losses in distribution and transmission Inefficiencies in industry and household use A cleaner growth is possible Rising to the challenge …..
• Clean Coal power generation the priority (Imported + Indigenous)
– Get “ best available clean coal process (transport/handling/usage) and technologies ” and capitalize on carbon credits – Carbon Capture and Storage options

Enhance share of RE in national grid mix:
– Wind Power in south wind corridor – Solar power -solar thermal / tubewell pumps – Small hydro potential in KPK/NAs


• •

Nuclear and Large Hydro as clean energy Energy Conservation – “win-win”
– – – – – Energy labeling , Smart Grids Energy audits and ESSCOs for buildings Inefficient Tube well replacement Solar water geysers program Consumer awareness building program

Efficiency enhancements of power plant

Buildings – Livable, affordable and green
• Shift towards efficient building designs
– Large potential for energy savings

• Establish and comply with Green building codes • ESSCO ’ s concept with carbon crediting to be employed:
» » » » » Energy efficiency construction Efficient lighting Insulation enhancement Solar water heating Natural lighting maximizing

Agriculture – Producing more with less
• Enhance efficiency of irrigation Water use
• • • • • Conservation / Canal lining Hill torrent irrigation system Rain water harvesting Solar powered water pumping Recycle/reuse agriculture water

• Expand Organic farming and reduce intensive pesticide use
– IPM, biological pest management

• Undertake responsive land use planning
– Control urban encroachments

• Develop Climate resistant crop varieties

Waste – Manage + profit to “zero” waste
• Develop integrated waste mgmt plan targeting “zero” waste :
– Waste collection, handling and disposal including recycling / reuse – Utilization for energy + fertilizers + carbon credits – Localized action – facilitative finance

• Public private mechanism • Ban on plastic bags
– Strict enforcement with alternate reusable or biodegradable bags manufacturing

• Shared hospital waste incineration • E-waste – regulate for disposal

Forestry – Restore and expand
Where we are ? • Highest rate of deforestation (1.8-2%)
– Coniferous forest decline (40000 ha/year)

• Low area coverage of forests (Less than 5%) • Low survival rates - afforestation • campaigns • Poor valuation of forest eco• services • Precious Mangrove forests under • threat from fuelwood use pressure, although • – Largest found in any arid climate – Coastal protectors •

Rising to the challenge…… • Aim to double the country’s dismal forest cover in 5 years • True Forest valuation to be done
• Timber, watersheds, biodiversity, carbon sinks, flood protection

Public-private mechanisms
– REDD+ through proper regulations – Community based stewardship

Tackle timber mafias Promote non-traditional forestry
– Urban / Riverine / Catchment / Mangroves / Farm forests

Halt conversion of forest lands Provide alternate fuels

Biodiversity – Preserving nature’s gifts
• Commit to a comprehensive valuation / inventory of our treasure of biodiversity (flora/fauna/threatened species with ranking)
– Snow Leopard / Markhors / Houbara Bustard / Blind Dolphin / Green Turtles / Tragopan pheasants

• Need to document and preserve our natural heritage for future generations • Community engagement/empowerment for management of natural treasures
– True custodians and stakeholders

• Treat genetic diversity as global assets

National Parks / Green Areas
Repositories of biodiversity and living “lungs”

• Translate from “paper” to efficiently manage eco parks
– Eco tourism promotion – Medicinal plants – Trophy hunting for conservation – Community based management

• Public parks for each small town with publicprivate management
– Eco parks or safari parks for entertainment – Public land to be leased

Climate Change – Adapt and mitigate
• Transform from “Most Vulnerable” to “Most Adaptive”
– Mainstream climate risks + costs into decision making – Vulnerability mapping of country to understand the challenge – Climate proof existing infrastructure – Climate resilient development for the future – Community based adaptation schemes

• Climate Fund Development
– Leverage funds for adaptation/mitigation

Environmental Awareness
• Environmental education to start at primary level • Inform and motivate public :
– “Green Youth” volunteers program / Clean up classes in school – Responsible custodians of nature – Utilize religious platforms - message of sustainable consumption and conservation – Encourage Media to promote sustainable values

Finally..Environmental Governance
• Environment to be placed at core of the PTI development agenda – Strong EIA enforcement / Government to lead • Commit to include “environmental rights” as basic human rights under constitution • “Green Benches” – institutionally support with knowledge based network • Technical cadres to be set up at Ministry level

Selling the PTI “Green” Agenda
• Shift towards a “new” alternate economy built upon parameters defined : – Promise of clean air and clean water to people – Deliver “green” jobs with benefits to people all across Pakistan

“Green jobs” possibilities ?…..huge !

Green Jobs …… reality check !
In UK – a Green Economy of GBP 122 billions a reality of 2011-12
•(Source “Green Economy – A success story)

Almost a million “Green Jobs” have been created in an, otherwise weak, economy •Almost equal to financial services •More than telecom sector

Green Jobs …… reality check !
In USA… growth of green jobs nearly two and a half times faster than overall jobs
(between 1998 and 2007 in USA (PEW Report)

1. Renewable promotion 2. Energy efficiency improvements 3. Pollution control and waste recycle / reuse 4. Organic agriculture, sustainable forestry 5. Environmental education

3.1 million green jobs created in 2010-11
(BLS Survey 2012)

Five Million “Green” Jobs in 5 years
An alternate growth pathway

Clean, Sustainable, Achievable

Financing the transition…..
• No “money from the sky”
– Set “green” priorities for internal financing after CBA ! – Mostly incremental financing

• Re-align PSDP financing
– Prioritize “freed fiscal space” towards a green focus !

• Public-private partnerships
– Capitalize on “win-win” investment opportunities

• Leverage through a “Green Development Fund”
– Tie up with global funds (GCF, REDD+, Bilateral donors)

Delivering Hope – With Passion and Planning !

Sar-sabz Pakistan

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