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How Stock markets work? pg. 7 What does GDP mean? How is it measured? pg.12
6. Inflation kills. Assuming an annual inflation of 6% (over long term), in 40 years you need $11 for every $1 you have now to have a comparable lifestyle. 7. Diversify enough. Always spread your money in 5-7 different types of investments (bank deposits, tech stocks, broad market index, bonds, etc.). 8. The Rule of 72. If you have put your money in an investment earning 9%, how do you calculate when your investment doubles without a calculator? There is a simple rule of thumb. Just divide 72 by your interest rate and that gives you the number of years it takes to double your investment. Thus, if your investment gives 9%, you will double it in 8 years (72/9).
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Brokers: Conceptually, a stock exchange is similar to eBay. They allow companies to be listed and connect buyers and sellers. Since millions of people trade in the market and it is practically impossible for these exchanges to deal with all these individuals, they have assigned brokers who act between the exchanges and the individuals. Part 2: How does one value a stock? Basic Terminology: We will use a term EPS (Earnings per share), which is exactly as it sounds. EPS is the profits of the company divided by number of shares. For instance, Apple has $41 billion in profits and about 950 million shares, giving an EPS of about 41000/950 = $44/share. Thus, if you own a share of Apple, you are entitled to 44 bucks of Apples profits this year. Calculating Share price: To evaluate how much you need to pay for that one Apple stock, you need to do a simple addition of all the earnings you will get Stock Price = EPS in Year 1 + EPS in Year 2 +... Now, you know that a dollar earned 10 years from now is not the same as a dollar earned now because there is an interest rate i involved and money you get in 10 years is less worthy than the money you have now. Therefore, you need to adjust that formulae. Stock Price = ((EPS in Year 1)/1+i)+ (EPS in Year 2/(1+i)^2) +... Now, there is a whole bunch of math involved (starting from the compound interest formula) and for the sake of simplicity, I will get you to the final results and reduce the stock price to two cases:
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To do this collective prediction, we constantly get new inputs and project that to the future. For instance, if the company management gets new hot-shot engineers, then we predict the future will be bright. What are other news that investors typically use? 1.Periodic financial results of the company that gives us a view into the companys workings and its financial position. 2.Periodic results of similar companies that help us guess this companys results. Thus, when Apple sneezes everyone else catches a cold. 3.Changes in the sector. If a new report comes that people are more inclined to using mobile phones, we predict growth of these companies will be high. 4.Changes in the broader market. 5.Changes in the international economy. Market Estimation: In short, we try to use all possible information to guess the future growth of the company, plug that into our formula, and find out the stock price. For instance, if Apple comes out with a report saying people are buying less iPads, we might ding Samsung too as we believe their Galaxy Tabs might sell less too. Estimating growth rate is an art rather than a science, and is collectively done by millions of humans in a place called the stock market. Since we need to constantly adjust the growth rate based on new information, stock prices constantly fluctuate. Main advantages of a stock market: 1. The market allows companies to get money from a large number of people. That means there are more options to get your money for building your business. 2. Spread risk. The stock market lets you spread the risk of your business into a large number of people. Since, each person is investing only a small portion of his/her income in the stock of a particular company, the risk of a single company collapsing doesnt significantly affect investors.
Look for market cues when estimating the stock price. Market Psychology matters too.
3. Collectively estimate value. Summary: Modern corporations require a lot of capital beyond the wealth of a few individuals. Markets help companies raise money from a large number of people and together these investors value their company. The theory is that when a large number of people do their independent valuation, the companys price comes closer to its ideal worth. In the short term, the market is a voting machine. But, in the long term, the market is a weighing machine. -- Buffett
(Disclaimer: This is an answer targeted at beginner-intermediate level investor and not high frequency traders or experts. I deliberately approximated a few things to improve clarity).
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What does GDP mean? How is the Gross Domestic Product of a country measured?
If you follow business news, it is hard to miss this acronym: GDP. It is thrown in almost all economic news. What does GDP mean? How is it measured? GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is a measure of a countrys production or income. You can simply understand this as the sum of incomes of all people living in a particular country. For instance, the GDP of US is $15 trillion. This is the sum total of incomes of 313 million Americans (at an average of $50,000 per person). This is one of the simplest and most intuitive measures to track the economy. If incomes go up, wellness goes up. Thus, most governments prioritize maximizing this measure. The annual growth in GDP is the most used metric to figure out if an economy is going up or going down. How is the GDP measured? The village of utopia has 6 cows (generating 100 liters of milk everyday), 100 acres of wheat field (generating 100 tons of Wheat every year), 100 acres of cotton fields, 1000 sets of clothing (at an average price of $10 each). Assuming that nothing else is produced in the village, the GDP of the village is: 1.100 liters *365 = 36500 at $1/liter. Annual product: $36500 2.100 tons of Wheat at $500/ton. Annual product: $50000 3.1000 sets of clothing at $10 each. Annual product: $10000 The total GDP of this village is: $365000+$50000+$10000 = $96500. (Note: We dont take the value of cotton produced here, as it will be accounted in the Textile production).
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Recessions The annual increase in GDP is called the growth rate. To make sure you account for inflation, you subtract the inflation from the growth rate to get the real rate. When an economy goes through a period of negative growth (wages going down), the economy is said to be in a recession (this is an unofficial use of the term though). Here is the 80-year GDP growth rate of the US. You can see the massive drop in GDP in the 1930s (Great Depression) and in the period immediately post-World War II (1940s). Since then, governments and economists have learned a lot in managing the economy and have taken immediate measures to manage GDP through active intervention (such as government spending).
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At Zingfin we are constantly striving to help investors understand the markets and invest with the big picture in mind. We are planning to launch our full tool set in the next few weeks and the tool will help you: 1. Understand the relationship between multiple markets. 2. Perform statistical anaysis in a simple, straight-forward way. 3. Discover new investment trends. 4. Manage your risk better. Send us an email at info@zingfin.com if you have any questions or would just like to get in touch.