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DAILY I FOREX REPORT

6TH MARCH 2013

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HEADLINES

Aussie to Build on Rally as Yen Reverses if ISM Surprises Higher Dollar Suffers Mild Retreat on Volumeless Dow Advance, Fed Remarks

TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3075 tgs 1.3095/1.3115 sl 1.3045

Dollar Index Outlook Bullish Ahead of RBA, Chinese News


Australian Dollar Gains as RBA Pours Cold Water on Rate Cut Outlook Japanese Yen Follows 10yr JGB Yields Higher on Bond Sale Demand Drop Upside Surprise on USNon-Mfg ISM May Drive Swell in Risk Appetite The Japanese Yen advanced as yields on the benchmark 10-year government bonds pushed sharply higher, adding 2.6 percent to record the largest daily advance in over two weeks. The move followed a poor showing at an auction of 10-year notes, where the bid-tocover measure of demand fell to 2.37 compared with 2.75 at a sale of similar paper a month ago, marking the weakest uptake since July 2009. The surge in borrowing costs appears to have eroded the Yens near-term appeal as a cheap funding vehicle, forcing an unwinding of carry trades financed in the perennially low-yielding currency.

SELL USDJPY BELOW 92.90 tgt 92.70/92.50 SL 93.20

SELL GBPUSD BELOW 1.5105 tgt 1.5085/1.5065 SL 1.5135

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HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.3035 HIGH: 1.3075 LOW: 1.3023 CLOSE: 1.3040

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND : BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD =>-.000(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 50(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 93.41 HIGH: 93.52 LOW: 92.91 CLOSE: 93.14

USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD => -0.02( BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>44(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5129 HIGH: 1.5199 LOW: 1.5106 CLOSE: 1.5151

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD => .005( BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 65(BEARIISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8616 HIGH: 0.8635 LOW: 0.8588 CLOSE: 0.8596

EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>-.003(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>33(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 82.1270 HIGH: 82.1750 LOW: 81.9000 CLOSE: 82.0310

USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD =>0.79(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>47(BULLISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALENDER

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Notes

Mon Mar 4

GBP BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Mths (FEB) 00:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price (FEB) GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (FEB) GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (FEB) GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (FEB) JPY Confirmation Hearing for BoJ Governor Nominee Kuroda AUD Inventories (4Q) AUD Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (4Q) AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (JAN) AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (JAN) AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (FEB) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (MAR) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JAN) EUR Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels USD ISM New York (FEB)

Medium

3.5%

Low

1.0%

0.3%

00:01

Low

13

15

00:01

Low

-0.1%

-0.3%

00:01

Low

0.1%

0.0%

00:30

Medium

00:30

Low

0.2%

0.6%

1.2%

00:30

Low

-1.0%

-1.0%

-2.7%

00:30

Low

9.9%

8.1%

12.4%

00:30

Low

-2.4%

2.8%

-1.7%

00:30

Low

3.0%

0.6%

09:30

Medium

46.8

49

48.7

09:30

Medium

-10.6

-4.3

-3.9

10:00

High

1.9%

1.9%

2.1%

10:00

Medium

0.6%

0.5%

-0.2%

14:00

High

14:45

Low

56.7

22:30
Tue Mar 5

AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (FEB) GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (FEB) GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (FEB)

Medium

45.3

Low

0.2%

-0.2%

Low

1.7%

1.3%

00:01

GBP BRC Sales Like-ForLike YoY (FEB) AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JAN) AUD Current Account Balance (Australian Dollar) (4Q) AUD Australia Net Exports of GDP (4Q) JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JAN) HSBC Services PMI (FEB) AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (MAR 5) EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB F) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (FEB F) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB) GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN) USD ISM NonManufacutring Composite (FEB) USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MAR) NZD Value of All Buildings SA (4Q)

Low

1.0%

1.9%

00:30

Medium

0.4%

-0.2%

00:30

Medium

-15300M

-14900M

00:30

Low

0.5

0.1

01:30

Medium

-1.7%

01:45

Medium

54

03:30

High

3.00%

3.00%

08:45

Medium

43.5

43.9

08:50

Medium

42.7

42.7

08:55

Medium

54.1

54.1

09:00

Medium

47.3

47.3

09:00

Medium

47.3

47.3

09:30

Medium

51

51.5

09:30

Low

$565M

10:00

High

-2.9%

-3.6%

10:00

Medium

0.3%

-0.9%

15:00

Medium

55

55.2

15:00

Low

47.2

47.3

21:45

Low

3.0%

9.6%

Wed Mar 6

JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (FEB) GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (FEB) 00:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (FEB) AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q) AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (4Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (4Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Household Consumption (QoQ) (4Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Fixed Capital (QoQ) (4Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) (4Q P) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 1) USD ADP Employment Change (FEB) USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Economic Outlook in Lancaster, PA CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision (MAR 6) USD Factory Orders (JAN) Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA (FEB) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 1) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 1) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 1) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 1) USD U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (FEB) NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-5.2%

Low

11.5%

Low

0.6%

00:30

High

3.0%

3.1%

00:30

High

0.6%

0.5%

10:00

High

-0.9%

-0.9%

10:00

High

-0.6%

-0.6%

10:00

Medium

0.0%

10:00

Medium

-0.7%

10:00

Low

-0.2%

12:00

Low

-3.8%

13:15

Medium

168K

192K

13:15

Low

15:00

High

1.00%

1.00%

15:00

Medium

-2.2%

1.8%

15:00

Medium

58.9

15:30

Low

-1857K

15:30

Low

557K

15:30

Low

1130K

15:30

Low

-75K

19:00

Medium

22:30

Medium

36.2

23:00

Low

6.2%

23:50

JPY Official Reserve Assets (FEB) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 1) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 1) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 1) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 1) JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (MAR 7) EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (FEB) EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

$1267.3B

23:50

Low

-106.4B

23:50

Low

-665.4B

23:50

Low

190.4B

23:50
Thu Mar 7

Low

-82.6B

High

0.10%

0.10%

Low

2.3%

Low

0.3%

00:30

AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (JAN) JPY Leading Index (JAN P) (JAN P) JPY Coincident Index (JAN P) (JAN P) AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (FEB) EUR French Mainland Unemployment Change (4Q) EUR French ILO Unemployment Rate (4Q) EUR French ILO Mainland Unemployment Rate (4Q) CHF SNB Final Result for 2012 CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (FEB) CHF Unemployment Rate (FEB) EUR French Trade Balance (euros) (JAN) CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (FEB) EUR Italian Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN) EUR Italian Producer Price Index (MoM) (JAN) EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN) EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

-427M

05:00

Medium

93.4

05:00

Low

92.6

05:30

Low

A$46.5B

06:30

Medium

29K

06:30

Medium

10.3%

06:30

Medium

9.9%

06:30

Medium

06:45

Medium

3.1%

3.1%

06:45

Medium

3.4%

3.4%

07:45

Low

-4700M

-5349M

08:00

Low

-4700M

427.0B

09:00

Low

2.0%

09:00

Low

-0.2%

11:00

Medium

1.6%

-1.8%

11:00

Low

0.6%

0.8%

12:00

GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (MAR 7) GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (MAR) USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (MAR) USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (FEB) EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (MAR 7) EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (MAR 7) USD Trade Balance (JAN) USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 3) USD Unit Labor Costs (4Q F) USD Non-Farm Productivity (4Q F) USD Continuing Claims (FEB 24) CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (JAN) CAD Building Permits (MoM) (JAN) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 1) USD Household Change in Net Worth (4Q) USD Consumer Credit (JAN) NZD Manufacturing Activity (4Q) NZD Manufacturing Activity Volume SA (QoQ) (4Q) JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F) JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F) JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (4Q F) JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (JAN) JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (JAN)

High

0.50%

0.50%

12:00

High

375B

375B

12:30

Low

49.5

12:30

Low

-24.4%

12:45

High

0.8%

0.75%

12:45

Medium

0.00%

0.0%

13:30

Medium

-$43.0B

-$38.5B

13:30

Medium

355K

344K

13:30

Low

4.3%

4.5%

13:30

Low

-1.5%

-2.0%

13:30

Low

3110K

3074K

13:30

Low

-0.55B

-0.90B

13:30

Low

-11.2%

15:30

Low

-171

17:00

Low

$1722B

20:00

Medium

$14.500B

$14.595B

21:45

Medium

1.6%

21:45

Low

2.6%

23:50

High

-0.4%

23:50

High

-0.1%

23:50

High

-0.4%

23:50

Medium

-1512.3B

-567.6B

23:50

Low

-626.0B

-264.1B

23:50

JPY Current Account Balance (YoY) (JAN) JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (FEB) JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (FEB) JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (JAN) JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (4Q F) JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (FEB) JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (FEB) EUR Bank of France Business Sentiment (FEB) CNY Trade Balance (USD) (FEB) CNY Imports (YoY) (FEB)

Low

34.2%

-199.4%

23:50

Low

23:50

Low

1.6%

23:50

Low

112.2B

98.1B

23:50
Fri Mar 8

Low

-0.6%

Medium

56.5

Medium

49.5

Medium

96

95

Medium

-$8.85B

$29.15B

Low

-8.2%

28.8%

CNY Exports (YoY) (FEB) EUR French Central Government Balance (euros) (JAN) CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB) CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (FEB) CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB) CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB) EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (JAN) EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JAN) CAD Housing Starts (FEB) USD Unemployment Rate (FEB) USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (FEB) CAD Unemployment Rate (FEB) CAD Net Change in Employment (FEB)

Low

7.6%

25.0%

07:45

Low

-87.2B

08:15

Medium

-0.30%

-0.3%

08:15

Medium

-0.1%

08:15

Low

0.30%

-0.3%

08:15

Low

-0.5%

11:00

Medium

-1.2%

-1.1%

11:00

Low

0.4%

0.3%

13:15

Medium

172.0K

160.6K

13:30

High

7.9%

7.9%

13:30

High

155K

157K

13:30

High

7.1%

7.0%

13:30

High

7.5K

-21.9K

13:30

USD Change in Private Payrolls (FEB) USD Average Hourly Earning All Employees (YoY) (FEB) CAD Participation Rate (FEB) CAD Part Time Employment Change (FEB) CAD Full Time Employment Change (FEB) Average Hourly Earning All Employees (MoM) (FEB) USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (FEB) USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (FEB) USD Change in Household Employment (FEB) USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (FEB) CAD Labor Productivity (QoQ) (4Q) USD Wholesale Inventories (JAN)

Medium

167K

166K

13:30

Medium

2.1%

2.1%

13:30

Medium

66.6

13:30

Medium

-1.4

13:30

Medium

-20.6

13:30

Low

0.2%

0.20%

13:30

Low

14.4%

13:30

Low

10K

4K

13:30

Low

17

13:30

Low

3440.0%

34.4

13:30

Low

-0.5%

15:00

Low

0.3%

-0.1%

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