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Oil Market Report

Brent downside risk well into Q2

15 MARCH 2013

SEB Oil Market Report

Crude oil market


While Brent has fallen below $110/b and previous large net long speculative positions have fallen back sharply, we still expect further downside in the price over the next 1-2 months, albeit relatively brief and fairly transitory, due to seasonal weakness and high OPEC crude oil production, provided MENA risks do not escalate significantly. In its March report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its average 2013 call-on-OPEC forecast by 100 kb/d to 29.7 mb/d. Conversely, it estimated production of 30.49 mb/d in February, up 150 kb/d from January and around 1.3 mb/d above the call-on-OPEC for Q2-13. The cartel must therefore cut production substantially going into Q2 unless it wishes global crude oil stocks to increase. However, Saudi Arabia certainly does not want an oil price of around $120/b, such as we saw earlier this year, as it would, on the one hand, stimulate further rapid increases in US oil production and, on the other, hurt still fragile global growth. Consequently, OPEC generally and Saudi Arabia in particular are likely to maintain high production to prevent the oil price rallying due to bullish equity markets and the US recovery. This year we expect growth in oil production (or at least oil capacity) to exceed consumption. The IEA anticipates demand rising by up to 820 kb/d y/y in 2013 due to continued weak global growth. On the other hand, nonOPEC supply is projected to increase by 1.1 mb/d this year, with the US accounting for a substantial share. In addition, Iraq will continue to expand oil production. Overall, we forecast an improving OPEC reserve capacity buffer in 2013. While IEA estimates suggest OPECs reserve capacity could rise towards 5 mb/d at the end of this year, the US Energy department is far more cautious, expecting OPEC reserve capacity of only 3.4 mb/d in 2014. While the precise figure is difficult to project, both agencies believe the buffer will increase during 2013. Of course, the MENA region is extremely unstable at present, so any disruptions locally could rapidly exhaust market capacity. Latest OECD composite leading indicators suggest its growth will improve over the next six months, even in the Euro-zone. On the other hand, they also signal weaker activity in both China and India. Slower economic expansion in China, if it occurs, will certainly adversely affect the outlook for Brent.

Crude oil price


(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, daily closing)
10 3 15 2 10 2 15 1 10 1 15 0 10 0 9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 ja -11 n fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -11 n ju l-11 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -12 n fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -12 n ju l-12 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -13 n fe -1 b 3 m r-1 a 3 7 0 N EXW I YM T IC Bre t E n

IEA global crude oil demand estimates


(mb/d)
9 ,5 1 9 ,0 1 9 ,5 0 9 ,0 0 8 ,5 9 8 ,0 9 8 ,5 8 8 ,0 8 8 ,5 7 8 ,0 7 8 ,5 6 8 ,0 6 8 ,5 5 8 ,0 5 8 ,5 4 se -1 p 0 ju 0 l-1 2 11 0 2 12 0 2 13 0

n v-1 o 0

n v-1 o 1

m r-1 a 1

m r-1 a 2

n v-1 o 2

Chart Sources: IEA, Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

Current global crude oil demand estimates


2012 (mb/d) 89.8 89.12 88.83 Revision (kb/d) -40 -40 -20 2013 (mb/d) 90.6 90.13 89.67 Revision (kb/d) -60 -80 -10

IEA EIA OPEC

SEB average Brent crude oil price forecast


($/b) 2013 2014 2015 Q1 112 Q2 107.5 Q3 110 Q4 110 Full Year 109.9 110.0 115.0

m r-1 a 3

se -1 p 1

se -1 p 2

m j-1 a 1

m j-1 a 2

ju 1 l-1

ja -1 n 1

ja -1 n 2

ju 2 l-1

ja -1 n 3

1 1

1 3

1 5

1 7

1 9

2 1

2 3

2 5

2 7

2 9

19 1 17 1 15 1 13 1

10 5 15 4 10 4 15 3 10 3 15 2 10 2 15 1 10 1 15 0 10 0 9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0

(ICE, $/b)

Crude oil

Crude oil price

SEB Oil Market Report

Brent futures curve

11 1 19 0 17 0 15 0 13 0 11 0 9 9

Speculative positions WTI

9 7 9 5 9 3 9 1

20 07

20 08

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

20 09

21 00

IC Bre t E n

(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)

N EXW I YM T

(NYMEX, lots, futures and options, vs. open interest, weekly data)

Nt e
1 -0 -1 3 3 4 1 -0 -1 3 2 4 1 -0 -1 3 1 4

Ln og

Sh rt o

21 01

21 02

ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -1 n 3 fe -1 b 3 m r-1 a 3
m j-1 a 3 ag 3 u -1 n v-1 o 3 fe -1 b 4 m j-1 a 4 ag 4 u -1 n v-1 o 4 fe -1 b 5 m j-1 a 5 ag 5 u -1 n v-1 o 5 fe -1 b 6 m j-1 a 6 ag 6 u -1 n v-1 o 6 fe -1 b 7 m j-1 a 7 ag 7 u -1 n v-1 o 7 fe -1 b 8 m j-1 a 8 ag 8 u -1 n v-1 o 8 fe -1 b 9 m j-1 a 9

21 03

(NYMEX, $/b)

(daily closing)
10 0 9 9 9 8 9 7 9 6 9 5 9 4 9 3 9 2 9 1 9 0 8 9 8 8 8 7 8 6 8 5 8 4 a r-1 p 3 ju 3 l-1 o 3 kt-1 ja -1 n 4 a r-1 p 4 ju 4 l-1 o 4 kt-1 ja -1 n 5 a r-1 p 5 ju 5 l-1 o 5 kt-1 ja -1 n 6 a r-1 p 6 ju 6 l-1 o 6 kt-1 ja -1 n 7 a r-1 p 7 1 -0 -1 3 3 4 1 -0 -1 3 2 4 1 -0 -1 3 1 4

WTI futures curve

Benchmark spreads

12 month time spread

(NYMEX/ICE, %, daily closing, >0: contango, <0: backwardation)

8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -1 0 -1 2 -1 4 -1 6 -1 8 -2 0 -2 2 -2 4 -2 6 -2 8

1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2

-4 -6 -8 -1 0

1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2

IC B n E re t

N EXW I YM T

W I m u Bre t T in s n Bre t m u D b i n in s u a Bre t m u U ls n in s ra

ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -1 n 3 fe -1 b 3 m r-1 a 3

ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -1 n 3 fe -1 b 3 m r-1 a 3

SEB Oil Market Report

Crude oil
US crude oil inventories
(DOE, mb, weekly data)
3 90 3 80 3 70 3 60 3 50 3 40 3 30 3 20 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 yea a era r v ge 20 12 20 13

OECD total industry oil stocks


(mb, monthly data)
22 85 20 80 27 75 25 70 22 75 20 70 27 65 25 60 22 65 20 60 27 55 25 50 22 55 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 03 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

OECD Europe industry oil stocks


(mb, monthly data)
14 00 13 00 12 00 11 00 10 00 90 9 90 8 90 7 90 6 90 5 90 4 90 3 90 2 90 1 90 0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 03 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

OECD North America industry oil stocks


(mb, monthly data)
10 40 17 35 15 30 12 35 10 30 17 25 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 15 20 12 25 10 20 17 15 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 03 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

OECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocks


(mb, monthly data)
40 4 45 3 40 3 45 2 40 2 45 1 40 1 45 0 40 0 35 9 30 9 35 8 30 8 35 7 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye r ra g to a n e, p 5 ye r ra g b tto a n e, o m 21 03 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

OPEC production
(kb/d, Bloomberg estimate, monthly data)
300 30 300 20 300 10 300 00 200 90 200 80 200 70 200 60 200 50 200 40 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 21 02 21 03 O EC 2 p d ctio P -1 ro u n O EC 1 p d ctio P -1 ro u n

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, IEA, SEB Commodity Research

SEB Oil Market Report

European oil product markets


Refinery economics have deteriorated since the end of February with gasoline, the key driver behind the sharp upturn at the beginning of the year, once again involved. Meanwhile, crack spreads in all other products have posted smaller but divergent changes in recent weeks. US refinery maintenance will peak this month, with activity expected to rise sharply in April. While European maintenance outages will stay high this month, they are unlikely to peak until April. Consequently, we foresee little downside in current regional refinery economics. Based on the latest information available Asian refinery activity will follow a trajectory similar to the European. Light ends: Naphtha and gasoline cracks have been moving in opposite directions lately with the former again high but the latter down sharply. A plentiful gasoline supply on the US east coast has limited US demand for European barrels. In addition, low ethanol availability and the Renewable Fuel Standard have collectively created a regulatory situation that limits US import demand. Going forward, Easter holiday driving and maintenance could support the crack despite high inventories. The switch to summer specifications will occur in April, prompting refiners to sell off surplus winter grade fuel. Naphtha appears to have been running ahead of itself, given its still low petrochemical industry competitiveness compared to propane, and reports that gasoline blenders have already stocked up. We question whether refinery maintenance can support the crack at its current level. Middle distillates: Middle distillate market activity remains fairly low. However, with cracks neutral at the best, most refinery maintenance still to come and a late winter cold snap in progress, downside risk is probably limited. Demand for diesel is relatively healthy and may receive additional support from Easter holiday driving. However, the regulatory situation discussed earlier concerning the US ethanol shortage could increase US incentives to ship diesel to Europe in coming months. Currently, the diesel market is sufficiently strong and the jet fuel market weak enough to justify refiners maximising diesel output. To some extent at least, the jet fuel crack should find support in few arriving arbitrage cargoes and the approaching travel season. Heavy ends: Relative to crude oil, fuel oil prices have moved steadily higher from low levels, particularly for high sulphur fuel oil, mainly due to the slightly stronger Singapore market. Despite high volumes of arbitrage cargoes scheduled eastbound from Europe in March and April, they are mainly intended for further processing rather than end use. Moreover, given upcoming maintenance in both Asia and Europe, the fuel oil crack appears on firmer ground again.

European light end benchmarks


($/t, daily closing)
10 20 15 10 10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 ja -11 n fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -11 n ju l-11 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -12 n fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -12 n ju l-12 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -13 n fe -1 b 3 m r-1 a 3 J fu l et e D se 1 p m ie l 0 p G so 0 % a il .1 60 5 N p th ah a G so e a lin

European middle distillate benchmarks


($/t, daily closing)
15 10 10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5

European fuel oil benchmarks


($/t, daily closing)
75 7 70 5 75 2 70 0 65 7 60 5 65 2 60 0 55 7 50 5 55 2 50 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -1 n 3 fe -1 b 3 m r-1 a 3 45 7 H h su h r fu l o (3 % ig lp u e il .5 ) L w su h r fu l o (1 % o lp u e il .0 )

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -1 n 3 fe -1 b 3 m r-1 a 3

SEB Oil Market Report

Oil products
US gasoline and distillate inventories
(DOE, mb, weekly data)
20 4 20 3 20 2 20 1 20 0 10 9 10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 j f m a m j j a s o n d G so e 5 ye r a e g a lin a v ra e G so e 2 1 a lin 0 3 D istilla fu l o 5 ye r a e g te e il a v ra e D istilla fu l o 2 1 te e il 0 3

US product benchmarks
(NYMEX, /gal, front month, daily closing)
30 6 30 5 30 4 30 3 30 2 30 1 30 0 20 9 20 8 20 7 20 6 20 5 20 4 20 3 G lin aso e H a go e tin il

US refinery utilization
(%, weekly data)
9 1 9 0 8 9 8 8 8 7 8 6 8 5 8 4 8 3 8 2 8 1 8 0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 2 0 -2 1 a g 08 0 2 v. 21 03

ICE Gasoil and European premiums to Gasoil


($/t, daily closing)
10 10 17 05 15 00 12 05 10 00 95 7 90 5 95 2 90 0 85 7 80 5 85 2 80 0 75 7 70 5 IC G so 0 % (le E a il .1 ft) J t fu l p m m (rig t) e e re iu h D se 1 p m p m m (rig t) ie l 0 p re iu h 10 1 10 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 0

European product cracks


($/b, daily closing)
3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5 -2 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m 1 ar-1 a 1 pr-1 m 1 aj-1 ju -1 n 1 jul-1 1 au -1 g 1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n ov-1 1 de 1 c-1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m 2 ar-1 a 2 pr-1 m 2 aj-1 ju -1 n 2 jul-1 2 au -1 g 2 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n ov-1 2 de 2 c-1 ja -1 n 3 fe -1 b 3 m 3 ar-1 -2 5 N h a ap th J t fu l e e Lo su u fue oil w lph r l D se 1 p ie l 0 pm G asolin e G asoil 0 % .1 H su u fue oil igh lph r l

European low - high sulphur fuel oil differential


($/t, daily closing)
7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -1 n 3 fe -1 b 3 m r-1 a 3

ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -1 n 3 fe -1 b 3 m r-1 a 3

ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -1 n 3 fe -1 b 3 m r-1 a 3
0

SEB Oil Market Report

Oil products
Regional 3-2-1 cracks
($/b, daily closing)
4 2 4 0 3 8 3 6 3 4 3 2 3 0 2 8 2 6 2 4 2 2 2 0 1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Asia (M a in s) U (W I) S T Eu p (Bre t) ro e n Pe n G lf (D b i) rsia u ua

European naphtha stocks


(kt, monthly data)
10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye r ra g , top a ne 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 03 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

European gasoline stocks


(kt, monthly data)
15 10 10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 50 0 40 5 40 0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 03 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -1 n 3 fe -1 b 3 m r-1 a 3

European jet fuel stocks


(kt, monthly data)
80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 50 0 40 5 40 0 30 5 30 0 20 5 20 0 10 5 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 03 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

European gasoil stocks


(kt, monthly data)
30 10 30 00 20 90 20 80 20 70 20 60 20 50 20 40 20 30 20 20 20 10 20 00 10 90 10 80 10 70 10 60 10 50 10 40 10 30 10 20 10 10 j f

European fuel oil stocks


(kt, monthly data)
15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 50 0 40 5 40 0 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 03 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 03 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, PJK International, SEB Commodity Research

SEB Oil Market Report

Oil products
US implied crude oil demand
(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
1 ,8 5 1 ,6 5 1 ,4 5 1 ,2 5 1 ,0 5 1 ,8 4 1 ,6 4 1 ,4 4 1 ,2 4 1 ,0 4 1 ,8 3 1 ,6 3 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ag y v. 21 02 21 03

US implied gasoline demand


(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
9 ,7 9 ,6 9 ,5 9 ,4 9 ,3 9 ,2 9 ,1 9 ,0 8 ,9 8 ,8 8 ,7 8 ,6 8 ,5 8 ,4 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 av . y g 2 2 01 2 3 01

US implied distillate demand


(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
5 ,4 5 ,2 5 ,0 4 ,8 4 ,6 4 ,4 4 ,2 4 ,0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5y av . g 20 12 20 13

Gasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New York


($/t, daily closing)
4 4 4 0 3 6 3 2 2 8 2 4 2 0 1 6 1 2 8 4 0 -4 -8 -1 2 -1 6 -2 0

Middle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New York


($/t, daily closing)
2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5 -2 0 H a g o a il e tin il/G so J t fu l/Ke se e e e ro n

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -1 n 3 fe -1 b 3 m r-1 a 3

-2 5

ja -11 n fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -11 n ju l-11 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -12 n fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -12 n ju l-12 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 d c-1 e 2 ja -13 n fe -1 b 3 m r-1 a 3

SEB Oil Market Report

Related energy markets


US natural gas price
(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)
1 4 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

UK natural gas price


(ICE, front month, weekly closing)
1 5 1 4 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 $ M /M Btu (le a ft xis) G p e (rig t a B /th rm h xis) 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0 1 5

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

21 03

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

Nordic power price


(Nord Pool, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
8 0 7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0

Continental power price


(EEX, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
10 0 9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

21 03 n v-1 o 2

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

EUA price
(ECX ICE, /t, December current year, weekly closing)
3 5 3 3 3 1 2 9 2 7 2 5 2 3 2 1 1 9 1 7 1 5 1 3 1 1 9 7 5 3

21 03

Coal price
(CIF ARA steam coal, API#2, daily closing)
15 3 10 3 15 2 10 2 15 1 10 1 15 0 10 0 9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0

n v-1 o 0

m r-1 a 0

ja -1 n 1 m r-1 a 1

n v-1 o 1

m r-1 a 2

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

21 02

ja -1 n 3 m r-1 a 3

m j-1 a 0

m j-1 a 1

m j-1 a 2

se -1 p 0

se -1 p 1

se -1 p 2

ju 0 l-1

ju 1 l-1

ja -1 n 0

ja -1 n 2

ju 2 l-1

21 03

SEB Oil Market Report

Market indicators
MSCI World equity market index
(weekly closing)
10 70 10 60 10 50 10 40 10 30 10 20 10 30 10 10 10 00 90 0 80 0 70 0 60 0 10 20 10 10 10 00 90 0 80 0

UBS Bloomberg CMCI commodity market index


(price index, weekly closing)
10 80 10 70 10 60 10 50 10 40

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

21 03

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

JPM global manufacturing PMI


(monthly, PMIs >50 expansive)
5 8 5 6 5 4 5 2 5 0 4 8 4 6 4 4 4 2 4 0 3 8 3 6 3 4

Regional PMI:s
(monthly data)
6 2 6 0 5 8 5 6 5 4 5 2 5 0 4 8 4 6 4 4 4 2 4 0 3 8 3 6 3 4 3 2 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00

U S Eu zo e ro n C in h a R fe n e re ce

21 01

21 02

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

Regional industrial production growth


(%, y/y, monthly data)
2 0 1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -1 0 -1 2 -1 4 -1 6 -1 8 -2 0 -2 2 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00

21 03

OECD composite leading indicators


(monthly, 100 corresponds to long term trend growth in industrial production)
14 0 13 0 12 0 11 0 10 0 9 9 9 8 C in h a Eu zo e ro n O C E D U SA R fe n e re ce

U S E ro n u zo e C in h a

9 7 9 6 9 5 9 4

21 01

21 02

21 03

9 3 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 21 02 21 03

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, OECD, SEB Commodity Research

10

21 03

21 03

SEB Oil Market Report

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Opinions, projections and estimates contained in this report represent the authors present opinion and are subject to change without notice. Although information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to its correctness, completeness or accuracy of the contents, and the information is not to be relied upon as authoritative. To the extent permitted by law, SEB accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this document or its contents.

Disclosures
The analysis and valuations, projections and forecasts contained in this report are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertainties; different assumptions could result in materially different results. The inclusion of any such valuations, projections and forecasts in this report should not be regarded as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the SEB Group or any person or entity within the SEB Group that such valuations, projections and forecasts or their underlying assumptions and estimates will be met or realized. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report. This document does not constitute investment advice and is being provided to you without regard to your investment objectives or circumstances. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of this document is urged to base investment decisions upon such investigations as they deem necessary. This document does not constitute an offer or an invitation to make an offer, or solicitation of, any offer to subscribe for any securities or other financial instruments.

Conflicts of Interest
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SEB Commodity Research


Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodity Analyst bjarne.schieldrop@seb.no +47 9248 9230 Filip Petersson, Commodity Strategist filip.petersson@seb.se +46 8 506 230 47

www.seb.se