ADB Water Week 13 March 2013 Where is the progress in IWRM application?

Integrated Flood Risk Management in a Seamless Manner
Kuniyoshi Takeuchi
International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management under the auspices of UNESCO (ICHARM) Public Works Research Institute (PWRI) Tsukuba, Japan

Evolution of IWRM
 

Many historical WRDs, TVA (1930s) etc. Mal del Plata Action Plan (1977) use & efficiency, natural
hazards, environmental & pollution control, planning & management, public information, education, cooperation • the first internationally coordinated approach to IWRM

Dublin Conference and Agenda 21 (1992)
• Finite Finite, vulnerable & essential to be managed in an integrated manner, participatory approach, women’s role, economic good

 

GWP Technical Advisory Committee (2000) B Bonn C f (2001) & Johannesburg Conf J h b WSSD (2002)  From Principle to Implementation

Integrated Water Resources Management

IWRM is a process which promotes t the th co-ordinated di t d development and management g of water, land and related resources, in order to maximize the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising i i th the sustainability of vital y (GWP TAC, ( ecosystems. 2000)

Hydrological Cycle

IWRM

Land Use & EcoEnvironmental System

SocioEconomic & Institutional System Human society & Decision Making

Integrated g Flood Risk Management g
 

IFRM IFM IWRM IFRM is a process which promotes the co-ordinated co ordinated development and management of floodplain to reduce flood risk while maximizing the benefit of floodplain in an equitable manner within ecological and societal sustainability by the best mix of structural and nonstructural means to control floods, , mitigate g flood damages or adapt society for the nature. Integrated with: environmental management, f forestry, t roads, d transportation, t t ti underground d d develop, d l sewerage, city/land use planning/regulation, capacity development, awareness raising, community preparedness, …

Needs of IFRM in a seamless manner

Seamless in what? hat?
• Temporal and spatial hydrological scales • Developed and developing worlds
• In availability of capacity, data & other resources.

• Water-land-climate-environmantal and human Key is a hydrosocietal boundaries environmental • Disciplinary boundaries simulation model model. • Socio-economic S i i sectorial t i lb boundaries d i • Institutional & administrative boundaries • Trans-boundaries

Advanced Technology for Early Warning & Hazard Mapping

IFAS
Integrated Flow Analysis System

20120101-20120930

Jun Magome

Rainfall

GSMaP/JAXA

River discharge
Jun Magome, 2012

 version

Flood preparedness for all

Philippines
Hazard: FID area
0 m < Hmax _50 50 year < 4.18 4 18 m

YJ KWAK

Affected People

3,552,000

Map of Flood Waters over the Affected Districts of Machanga and Govuro, Lower Savi River, Mozambique

By model

By satellite

Potential flood area UNOSAT (17.Jan.2008)

2010 Pakistan flood
29 July
Kabul river

Nowcasts by IFAS

Seishi Nabesaka

IFAS modeling schematics
satellite  based rainfall(mm) 30,000 25,000 20,000 discharge(m3/s) 0

Satellite based rainfall GSMaP ICHARM modified

15,000 10,000 5,000

15 July to 18 August Kabul river at Nowshera
15‐Ju ul 16‐Ju ul 17‐Ju ul 18‐Ju ul 20‐Ju ul 21‐Ju ul 22‐Ju ul 23‐Ju ul 25‐Ju ul 26‐Ju ul 27‐Ju ul 28‐Ju ul 30‐Ju ul 31‐Ju ul 1‐Aug 2‐Aug 4‐Aug 5‐Aug 6‐Aug 7‐Aug 9‐Aug 10‐Aug 11‐Aug 12‐Aug 14‐Aug 15‐Aug 16‐Aug 17‐Aug

5

10

13 September Kabul OCHA river
Target area

0

15

60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 , 10,000 0

satellite  based rainfal(mm)

discharge(m3/s)

0

15 July to 18 August 5
10

Indus river at Kalur Kot
15‐Jul 16‐Jul 17‐Jul 18‐Jul 20‐Jul 21‐Jul 22‐Jul 23‐Jul 25‐Jul 26‐Jul 27‐Jul 28‐Jul 30‐Jul 31‐Jul 1‐Aug 2‐Aug 4‐Aug 5‐Aug 6‐Aug 7‐Aug 9‐Aug 10‐Aug 11‐Aug 12‐Aug 14‐Aug 15‐Aug 16‐Aug 17‐Aug

15

10

13 Oct, 2011 by MODIS

Tyhoon Nock-ten in July July. 145% of av (J,A,S) ’08-’10

Simulation on Oct 18, 2011 by ICHARM

5m

Nakhon Sawan

A tth Ayutthaya

Bangkok

1 : July 2 31 : Aug 1 62 : Sep 1 92 : Oct 1 123 : N Nov 1 152 : Nov 30 11 Sayama’s RRI model 0m by satellites & NWF

Promoting local ownership of flood forecasts
System ICHARM’s ICHARM s Challenge: Localism Training

IFAS

Global Data

Local Data

ADB-ICHARM TA7276-REG

Bangladesh: Whole Nation - Review & recomm of Early Warning Systems - Capacity building Cambodia: Lower Mekong Basin - Develpmnt of flood vulnerability indices Indonesia: Solo basin - Implementation of satellitebased flood forecasting system - Community-managed C it d flood fl d risk management - Capacity building

Philippines: Pampanga & Cagayan basins - Application of IFAS - Capacity devlpmnt & training

Installation of IFAS
R l ti Real-time Fl Flood d Alert Al t System S t

Indonesia Component component

Near Real time Flood Alert System

Data collection by SMS (hourly)

Automatic access

Courtesy of JAXA

Satellite based rainfall

Data pick up

Output

Automatic access
Alert Alert

Automatic Alert e-mail

14

IFAS installation in Solo river basin in Indonesia
Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS)
•Geological data for modeling (free) •Elevation data, Land use data and soil data (free) •Satellite‐based rainfall data (free)
Target Area: Solo River River basin Area : 16,100km2 Length : 540km

Solo River

input
Surface model

Aquifer model

River course model

Creation Runoff module Run‐off analysis

Output; River discharge,  Water level, Rainfall distribution Alert message by E‐mail  and PC display

E Evacuation ti  W Warning i

Judgment  by River  managers
measured Q

Reach to the  warning level

Tech + Localism + Cap Build 
rainfall 3000

Better Combination
IFAS discharge

Community based flood management
0
Semen Pinggir Kedung Sumber The pilot villages

Discharge Q (m3/s)

2500

5

2000

10

Demonstration activities: (1) facilitation for community hazard and risk  assessment and mapping,  (2) facilitation for preparing risk maps, FRM  action plans and the manual for early  warning system and evacuation plan  (3) support community in technical aspects  for carrying out emergency drills and  exercises 

1500

15

Warning stage 3 Warning stage 2 Warning stage 1
500 1000 20

25

0 12/25 12:00

12/25 18:00

12/26 0:00

12/26 6:00

12/26 12:00

30 12/26 18:00

IFAS installation and identifying flood causes in Pampanga and Cagayan river basins in the Philippines
P Pampanga Ri River
10,454km2 18 rainfall stations 11 water level stations

Ü
" Tuguegarao " Tumauini Gamu

C Cagayan Ri River
27,280km2 5 rainfall stations 5 water level stations

" Maris Dam

"

"

Pangal

- 195 - 0 0 - 50 50 - 100 100 - 200 200 - 300 300 - 400 400 - 500 500 - 1,000 1,000 - 2,000 2,000 - 3,000

Mayapyap station
25

Ground

GSMaP original

25 20

Ground
0 10 20 40 60 80

GSMaP
100 km

3B42RT

Gamu station

Rainfall (mm/hr)

20 15 10 5 0 2011/9/26 2011/9/27 2011/9/28 2011/9/29 Measured Q 2011/9/30 2011/10/1 2011/10/2 GSMaP original 2011/10/3 2011/10/4 Ground with dam 0

Rainfall (mm/hr)

15 10 5 0 2006/1/23 14000

2006/1/24 R i Rain

2006/1/25

2006/1/26 M Measured d  Q

2006/1/27

2006/1/28 G Ground d

2006/1/29

2006/1/30

2006/1/31 3B42RT 0 5 10

Rain (Ground) 7000

Ground

GSM P GSMaP

6000

5

12000

5000

10000 10 15

Discharge (m3/s) D

Ra ainfall (mm/hr)

Di ischarge (m3/s)

4000 3000

8000

20 25 30

15

6000

20 2000 25

4000 35

1000

2000

40 45 2006/1/24 2006/1/25 2006/1/26 2006/1/27 2006/1/28 2006/1/29 2006/1/30 2006/1/31

0 2011/9/26

30 2011/9/27 2011/9/28 2011/9/29 2011/9/30 2011/10/1 2011/10/2 2011/10/3 2011/10/4

0 2006/1/23

IFAS results at Mayapyap station

IFAS results at Gamu station

Rain nfall (mm/hr)

16

Dates of Rice Planting and Harvesting

Planting: when total rain reached to 500mm

500mm

Mekong River Basin Kamponchum District
CR0 : planting 90 days FMMP, MRC

Water Lev vel (m)

Rice production depends p on when floods come

Land Elevation

Water level of the Mekong

稲作不適地域:平年(平均洪 Flood-fed Flood fed rice 水)でも被害(50cm以上浸水) を受けるところ

Rain-fed rice

Harvesting: 90 days after planting

0

30km

Flood Vulnerability Assessment in Lower Mekong River Basin

Results

Average e age year yea

Relative Difference between Extreme 2000 - Normal 2006 floods

Agricultural damages

FVI‐AvFl

FVI‐ExFl

FVIs for Agricultural Damages: Kandal Province

居安思危 Be aware of risk while we are safe 思則有備 Awareness leads us preparedness 有備無患 Preparedness p leaves us no regret g
「春秋」左氏伝 Source: Zuo Qiuming “Zuoshi Commentary” in Confucius ed. ”Spring and Autumn”, 480BC

Let us ally for waterrelated DRR
UNSGAB/HLEP

www.icharm.pwri.go.jp
Future Earth

ICHARM preparedness for floods

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