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Dilruk Gallage University of Colombo Sri Lanka

March 21, 2013

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 1 / OF 13 D

Table of contents

1

Overview Transmission model for dengue disease without the eﬀect of EIP Equilibrium points Transmission model for dengue disease with the eﬀect of EIP Transmission model of ﬁxed the eﬀect of EIP Transmission model of varying the eﬀect of EIP Future study

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Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 2 / OF 13 D

Overview

Background

About 100 million people infected by dengue disease. About 35,000 cases recorded in Sri lanka in 2009.

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 3 / OF 13 D

Overview

Background

About 100 million people infected by dengue disease. About 35,000 cases recorded in Sri lanka in 2009. Why do we handle this research? speciﬁc Treatment hasn’t been found yet. No vaccine is available. Virus is spread by mosquitoes. Outbreak occurrence depends on many factors, such as rainfall, temperature,..ect.

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 3 / OF 13 D

Overview

Background

About 100 million people infected by dengue disease. About 35,000 cases recorded in Sri lanka in 2009. Why do we handle this research? speciﬁc Treatment hasn’t been found yet. No vaccine is available. Virus is spread by mosquitoes. Outbreak occurrence depends on many factors, such as rainfall, temperature,..ect. We’re going to control the transmission of dengue and choosing a suitable mathematical model to control spreading dengue virus.

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 3 / OF 13 D

Overview

Background

About 100 million people infected by dengue disease. About 35,000 cases recorded in Sri lanka in 2009. Why do we handle this research? speciﬁc Treatment hasn’t been found yet. No vaccine is available. Virus is spread by mosquitoes. Outbreak occurrence depends on many factors, such as rainfall, temperature,..ect. We’re going to control the transmission of dengue and choosing a suitable mathematical model to control spreading dengue virus. Considering SIR- model.

Overview

Background

About 100 million people infected by dengue disease. About 35,000 cases recorded in Sri lanka in 2009. Why do we handle this research? speciﬁc Treatment hasn’t been found yet. No vaccine is available. Virus is spread by mosquitoes. Outbreak occurrence depends on many factors, such as rainfall, temperature,..ect. We’re going to control the transmission of dengue and choosing a suitable mathematical model to control spreading dengue virus. Considering SIR- model.

Transmission model for dengue disease without the eﬀect of EIP

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 4 / OF 13 D

Transmission model for dengue disease without the eﬀect of EIP

**Normalizing above system of diﬀerential equations by letting S = Ih Sv Iv v v h I =N ,R=R N , S = Nv and I = Nv then dS = λ − γh SI v − µh S dt dI = γh SI v − (µh + r )I dt dI v = γv (1 − I v )I − µv I v dt
**

v where γv = b βv and γh = nβh with n = D /µ N and conditions, S + I + R = 1 and S v + I v = 1.

Sh N,

(1)

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 5 / OF 13 D

Transmission model for dengue disease without the eﬀect of EIP

Equilibrium points

**Evaluating equilibrium points for each state
**

The positively invariant set

v E = {(S , I , I v ) ∈ R3 + |S + I ≤ 1 and I ≤ 1}.

**For virus free state E0 = (1, 0, 0). For endemic disease state E1 = (S ∗ , I ∗ , I v ∗ ) where S∗ = where β =
**

b βv µv ,

L+β , β + LR0 L=

µh +r µh ,

I∗ =

R0 − 1 , β + LR0

Iv∗ =

β (R0 − 1) R0 (β + L)

and R0 =

b 2 βh βv n µv (µh +r ) .

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 6 / OF 13 D

Transmission model for dengue disease without the eﬀect of EIP

Equilibrium points

**Evaluating Jacobian matrix of (2), we have −γh I v − µh 0 −γh S γh I v −(µh + r ) γh S J= v 0 γv (1 − I ) −µv − γv I For virus free state E1 JE1
**

Eigenvalues of JE1 are −µh , −(µv + µh + r ) ± (µv + µh + r )2 − 4µv (µh + r )(1 − R0 ) 2

−µh 0 −γh −(µh + r ) γh = 0 0 −γv −µv

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 7 / OF 13 D

Transmission model for dengue disease without the eﬀect of EIP

Equilibrium points

**For endemic disease state E2 , γh β (R −1) 0 − R (β + − µh 0 L) 0 γh β (R0 −1) − R −(µh + r ) JE2 = 0 (β +L) β (R0 −1) 0 γv 1 − R (β +L)
**

0

γh (L+β ) −( β +LR ) γh (L+β ) −( β +LR )

0 0

−µv −

γv (R0 −1) β +LR0

The characteristic polynomial of above matrix is P (λ) = λ3 + Aλ2 + B λ + C where µh (β + LR0 ) L+β + µh L + µv R0 [ ] L+β β + LR0 β + LR0 µv µh β L B = µ2 ] + µh µv R0 + (R0 − 1)( ) h L[ L+β β + LR0 A= C = µv µ2 h L(R0 − 1)

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 8 / OF 13 D

Transmission model for dengue disease with the eﬀect of EIP

Transmission model for dengue disease with the eﬀect of EIP

dS = λ − γh S (1 − k )I v − µh S dt dI = γh S (1 − k )I v − (µh + r )I dt dI v = γv (1 − I v )I − µv I v dt where k = 1 − exp−µv τ is the percentage of infected mosquitoes which are not infectious. So (1 − k )I v is the number of infectious mosquitoes.

(2)

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 9 / OF 13 D

Transmission model for dengue disease with the eﬀect of EIP

Transmission model of ﬁxed the eﬀect of EIP

With ﬁxed eﬀect of EIP for k=.1

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21, 2013 DYNAMICS 10 / OF 13 D

Transmission model for dengue disease with the eﬀect of EIP

Transmission model of ﬁxed the eﬀect of EIP

With ﬁxed eﬀect of EIP for k=.6

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21, 2013 DYNAMICS 11 / OF 13 D

Transmission model for dengue disease with the eﬀect of EIP

Transmission model of varying the eﬀect of EIP

With varying the eﬀect of EIP

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21, 2013 DYNAMICS 12 / OF 13 D

Future study

Future study

want to ﬁnd parameters which are most responsible for the disease transmission. want to ﬁnd an optimal solution of objective functional to reduce infectious humans and cost of expenses such as medical treatments, pesticide,...ect.

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21, 2013 DYNAMICS 13 / OF 13 D

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