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Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | March 21, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Day’s overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam – Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update
Thursday | March 21, 2013 News and Analysis

International Commodities
Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

French Flash Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged in March German Flash Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.9-level in March UK's Retail Sales increased by 2.1 percent in February Europe Flash Manufacturing PMI declined to 46.6-level in March Europe Flash Services PMI dropped to 46.5-level in Current month European markets are trading lower on account of unfavorable economic data from euro region coupled with concerns over Cyprus bailout. Asian markets closed on mixed note. US stock futures are trading on mixed note. French Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remained unchanged at 43.9-mark in the month of March. German Flash Manufacturing PMI declined by 1.4 points to 48.9-level in March from previous rise of 50.3-mark in February. Europe Flash Manufacturing PMI declined by 1.3 points to 46.6-level in present month with respect to increase of 47.9-mark in last month. Europe Flash Services PMI dropped by 0.8 points to 46.5-level in existing month when compared to 47.3-mark in February. UK's Retail Sales increased by 2.1 percent in February from earlier decline of 0.6 percent in January. Spot gold prices are trading higher as the US Fedral Reserve decided to continue with its bond buying program. Further, worries over Cyprus bailout, driving investors to buy gold as safe haven. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee added downside pressure on the prices on MCX. Taking cues from rise in the gold prices coupled with upside movement in base metals pack, Spot silver prices increased by 0.52 percent today. Further, positive retail sales data from UK coupled with weakness in DX supported prices to trade positive. However, negative economic data from Europe capped sharp gains in prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Indian Rupee prevented sharp upside movement in prices. The base metals group traded on a positive note on the back of expectation of positive economic data from US. Further, positive retail sales data from UK coupled with weakness in DX supported prices to trade green. However, mixed LME inventories along with unfavourable economic data from Europe capped sharp rallies in prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation, in the Indian Rupee capped sharp gains in the prices. Nymex crude oil prices decreased by 0.02 percent on the back of worries over Cyprus bailout coupled with unfavourable economic data from Europe. However, expectation of favourable economic data from US , weakness in DX along with positive retail sales data from UK prevented sharp decline in prices. Additionally, negative crude oil inventory in yesterday’s trade cushioned sharp downfall in prices. On MCX, appreciation in the Indian rupee added downside pressure on the prices. .

as at 4.30 pm – 21 March ’13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5705.90 18926.21 12592.00 1969.30 15985.73

5757.75 19082.29 12650.26 1973.26 16042.28

5647.95 18756.65 12586.06 1950.82 15896.73

5658.75 18792.87 12635.69 1950.82 15896.73

-0.63 -0.48 1.34 -0.44 0.01
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm – 21 March ’13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

83.00 1.2931 54.34

83.19 1.2955 54.37

82.88 1.2879 54.185

82.89 1.2919 54.29

-0.07 -0.10 -0.06
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm – 21 March ’13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Mar’13 MCX Gold – Apr’13 Spot Silver Comex Silver May’13 MCX Silver – May’13 Crude Oil Nymex – Apr ‘13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil* MCX Crude Oil Mar’ ’13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper April’13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Mar’13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Mar’13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Mar’13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Mar’13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl

1605.97 1610.00 29662.00 28.78 28.23 54392 93.36 108.48 5085 7606.00 417.60 1935.00 104.30 2188 118.45 16815 916.70 1942.00 104.50

1609.46 1613.00 29695.0 28.92 28.88 54450 93.53 108.75 5095 7750.00 420.00 1954.00 104.80 2221 119.20 16950 919.50 1958.00 104.70

1604.04 1606.20 29613.0 28.72 28.425 54150 92.79 108.12 5070 7606.00 416.10 1931.00 103.70 2188 118.50 16815 912.70 1938.00 104.00

1608.76 1607.50 29681.0 28.91 28.783 54331 93.17 108.31 5092 7640.50 417.15 1945.00 103.90 2203 118.20 16868 915.40 1942.00 104.05

0.18 -0.24 -0.06 0.52 -0.09 0.16 -0.02 -0.38 -0.08 0.28 0.02 0.52 0.43 0.87 0.47 0.32 -0.11 -0.05 -0.05

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update
Thursday | March 21, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metal, base metals and crude oil prices to trade on the positive note on the back of expectation of favourable economic data from US coupled with weakness in DX. Further, positive manufacturing data from china and rise in retail sales data from UK will support prices to trade on higher side. However, unfavourable economic data from Europe coupled with expectation of rise in initial jobless claims data from US will prevent sharp gains in prices or even reversal in prices.

Technical Outook for evening session – 21 March ’13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)
Commodity Gold April '13 Spot Gold Silver May’13 Spot Silver Brent Crude Mar’13 Crude Oil Mar’13 Nymex Crude Oil Apr’13 Natural Gas Mar’13 LME Copper Copper April’13 Zinc Mar’13 Lead Mar’13 Aluminum Mar’13 Nickel Mar’13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 29548 1592 53800 28.40 5872 5021 91.95 209 7545 414.4 103.15 116.95 103.3 905 Support 1 29614 1599 54171 28.69 5893 5060 92.65 212.2 7600 416.1 103.7 117.9 103.7 911 CMP 29678 1609 54430 28.91 5961 5085 93.1 214.9 7640 417.4 104.35 118.7 104 914.8 Resistance1 29748 1614 54652 29.06 5936 5122 93.8 217.4 7723 420 104.8 119.2 104.7 921 Resistance 2 29840 1621 54990 29.32 5958 5149 94.3 219.6 7770 421.6 105.65 119.85 105.4 927

Important Events for Today
Indicator FOMC Press Conference Trade Balance HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Services PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI Retail Sales m/m Public Sector Net Borrowing CBI Industrial Order Expectations Unemployment Claims Flash Manufacturing PMI Existing Home Sales Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Country US Japan China Europe Europe Europe Europe Europe Europe UK UK UK US US US US Time (IST) 12:00am 5:20am 7:15am 1:30pm 1:30pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 3:00pm 3:00pm 3:00pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 7:30pm 7:30pm Actual -1.09T 51.7 43.9 41.9 48.9 51.6 46.6 46.5 2.1% 4.4B Forecast -1.01T 51.2 44.4 44.1 50.8 54.9 48.2 48.2 0.5% 8.4B -16 343K 55.1 5.02M -1.6 Previous -0.68T 50.4 43.9 42.7 50.3 54.1 47.9 47.3 -0.6% -9.9B -14 332K 54.3 4.92M -12.5 Impact High Medium High High Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium High High