TREASURY FINANCING REQUIREMENTS

$ Billions October - December 2003
(Projected)
Deficit Funding (Def + / Surplus -) Means of Financing Change in Cash Balance Compensating Balances Net Non-Marketable Financing Net Marketable Financing Other** Net Marketable Financing Bills Nominal Notes TIPS Bonds Notes: Starting Cash Balance Ending Cash Balance 35 35 35 33 33 20 0 7 5 117 10 117 2 7 1 113 6 113 11 106 9 -12 13 n.a.* 5 177 8 177 140

January - March 2004
(Projected)
203

(Actuals)
129

* By December 31, 2003 Compensating Balances were replaced with Depositary Compensation Securities, which have no cash impact. ** Includes direct loan activity, changes in accrued interest and checks outstanding and minor miscellaneous transactions. Note: Totals may not add due to rounding
Department of the Treasury Office of Debt Management Office of Fiscal Projection February 2, 2004-1

TREASURY DAILY OPERATING CASH BALANCE
$Bil. FY 2003 50 FY 2004 50 $Bil.

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0 Oct
Department of the Treasury Office of Debt Management

0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
February 2, 2004-2

Source: Daily Treasury Statement, data through January 28, 2004.

THE AVERAGE MATURITY OF TOTAL OUTSTANDING MARKETABLE DEBT AND A 1-YEAR MOVING AVERAGE OF THE AVERAGE MATURITY OF ISSUANCE 1
Months Average Maturity of Issuance Months 90 90

80

80

70

70

60

56.3

60

50 Average Maturity 40 As of December 31, 2003 Assumptions: FY05 Budget and coupon issuance maintained at current level.

50

40

30

30 28.4 20 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

20 1980
1

1982

1984 1986

1988

1990 1992

1994

The average maturity of issuance is the ultimate average maturity achieved if coupon issuance in any given quarter is held constant going forward and the balance of financing needs are met with changes in bill issuance.
February 2, 2004-3

Department of the Treasury Office of Debt Management

MATURITY PROFILE
Treasury Marketable Coupon Securities $Bil. Actual Projected 1000 4th Quarter 3rd Quarter 2nd Quarter 800 1st Quarter

1

$Bil. 1000

800

600

600

400

400

200

200

0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

0

Calendar Year
Note: Where applicable, maturities represent first call date.
1
Department of the Treasury Office of Debt Management

Issued or announced through January 30, 2004. Assumes coupon pattern and issuance amount maintained at current levels.
February 2, 2004-4

FINANCING RESIDUALS GIVEN CURRENT ISSUANCE CALENDAR
Assumes current coupon issuance pattern and issuance amount — Bill issuance at levels required to maintain outstanding FY$ amounts nearly equal to September 30, 2003 total outstanding

$Bil. 600 500 400
FY05 OMB Budget Forecast Deficits minus Deficits plus Average Absolute Error

$Bil. 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100
Bars Indicate Estimated Additional Financing Required in Given Year for Different Deficit Outcomes

300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300

Average Absolute Error

-200 -300

2004

2005

2006 Fiscal Years

2007

2008

2009

Note: Bars represent estimated financing changes from current pattern
Department of the Treasury Office of Debt Management

Lines represent FY 05 Budget Estimates

February 2, 2004-5

Percent 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 Percent 80 60 40 20 0 1950

SURPLUS/DEFICIT AND DEBT TO GDP
Surplus/Deficit % of GDP

1

Percent 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 Percent

Debt to GDP (%)

80 60 40 20 0

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

'09

1 FY 2004-09 estimates from OMB Budget of the United States Government FY 2005.

Source: Budget Historical Tables 1.2 & 7.1.
Department of the Treasury Office of Debt Management February 2, 2004-6

DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL CREDIT MARKET AND TREASURY DEBT
$Bil. 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Percent
Treasuries Muni's Corporates Home Mortgages Other Mortgages Consumer Credit

$Bil. Nonfinancial Credit Market Treasuries 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Percent Other 30 20,000

30

20

20

10

10

0 1960
Department of the Treasury Office of Debt Management

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

0

Source: U.S. Federal Reserve Board of Governors Flow of Funds.
February 2, 2004-7

TREASURY BILLS AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE MONEY MARKET
Percent 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 1969

1

Percent 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25

1973
1

1977

1981

1985 1989 Quarterly

1993

1997

2001

Money market = Treasury bills, nonfinancial commercial paper, and financial open market paper. Source: U.S. Federal Reserve Board of Governors Flow of Funds statistical release Z.1.
February 2, 2004-8

Department of the Treasury Office of Debt Management

PRIMARY DEALER TRADING VOLUME
Outright Transactions, 3-Month Moving Average $Bil. 450 Bills 400 350 MBS 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Corp
1

$Bil. 450 Notes/Bonds Agencies 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 400

1995

1996

1997
1

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

04

Data available beginning September 26, 2001 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
February 2, 2004-9

Department of the Treasury Office of Debt Management

TREASURY QUARTERLY NET MARKET BORROWING
Calendar Quarter $Bil. 120 47.0 80 40 0 -40 -80 -120 -113.8 -160 -163.4 -200 I II III IV I -192.1 II III 2000 IV I II III 2001 IV I II III 2002 IV I II III 2003
February 2, 2004-10

52.1 74.4 17.8 52.5 5.8 15.1 84.2 111.3 82.6 113.4

$Bil. 120 60.3 81.5 80 40 0

-15.9

-20.1 -47.7 -26.1 Coupons Buybacks Over 10 yrs 5 - 10 yrs 2 - under 5 yrs Bills

-40 -80 -120 -160 -200 IV

1999
Department of the Treasury Office of Debt Management

TREASURY QUARTERLY NET BORROWING FROM NONMARKETABLE ISSUES
$Bil. 10 State and Local Series Foreign Series 1.6 5 0.8 0 -1.7 -0.9 -5 -6.9 -8.0 -10 -10.1 -10.6 -8.4 -10 -3.6 -5.0 -2.2 -1.4 -5.5 -0.1 -0.7 0.8 0 Savings Bonds 5 7.6 7.6 $Bil. 10

-2.4 -5

-15

I

II

III 1999

IV

I

II III 2000

IV

I

II

III 2001

IV

I

II

III 2002

IV

I

II

III 2003

IV

-15

Department of the Treasury Office of Debt Management Office of Fiscal Projection

February 2, 2004-11

PRIVATELY HELD TREASURY MARKETABLE DEBT
Percent Distribution By Maturity Percent Coupons Over 10 years 2-10 years 1-2 years 1 year & under Bills

1

Percent

100 15 80 33 60 17 12 16 20 26 19 0 1995 1996 1997
1
Department of the Treasury Office of Debt Management

100 17 15 80 28 32 60 14 40 15 20 24 0

40

17

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Calendar Year End Data
Privately held marketable debt excludes holdings of the Federal Reserve and non-interest-bearing matured debt.
February 2, 2004-12

FOREIGN HOLDINGS AS A PERCENT OF1 TOTAL PRIVATELY HELD PUBLIC DEBT
Percent 45 45% 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1993
1 2 3
Department of the Treasury Office of Debt Management

Percent 45 40 35 Benchmark revision of June 2003 Benchmark revision of March 2000
2 2

30 25% 25 20 15 10

Estimated Foreign Holdings Foreign and International Institutional Holdings at FRBNY
3

5 0

1994

1995

1996

1997 1998 1999 Calendar Quarter

2000

2001

2002

2003

Privately held debt excludes holdings of the Federal Reserve. Series for estimated foreign holdings. Data through November 30, 2003. See http://www.treas.gov/tic/index.html. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York statistical release H4.1.
February 2, 2004-13

AUCTION RELEASE TIMES
8 Minutes from Closing to Release 8

7

Target Release Range

7

6

6

5

5

4

Data Through January 30

4

3 Current Quarter 2
(November 3 - January 30)

3

2

1

1

0 Feb-03 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-04

0

Department of the Treasury BPD - Office of Financing

February 2, 2004-14