Second Annual Report

:

Teacher Supply and Demand in New York State in 2005-2006

The University of the State of New York The New York State Education Department Office of Higher Education March 2007

Questions and comments about this report are welcomed at NCLBNYS@mail.nysed.gov.

THE UNIVERSITY OF THE STATE OF NEW YORK Regents of The University
ROBERT M. BENNETT, Chancellor, B.A., M.S. ................................................................. ADELAIDE L. SANFORD, Vice Chancellor, B.A., M.A., P.D. ........................................... SAUL B. COHEN, B.A., M.A., Ph.D. ................................................................................ JAMES C. DAWSON, A.A., B.A., M.S., Ph.D. ................................................................. ANTHONY S. BOTTAR, B.A., J.D. .................................................................................... MERRYL H. TISCH, B.A., M.A., Ed.D. ............................................................................ GERALDINE D. CHAPEY, B.A., M.A., Ed.D. ................................................................... ARNOLD B. GARDNER, B.A., LL.B. .................................................................................. HARRY PHILLIPS, 3rd, B.A., M.S.F.S. ............................................................................. JOSEPH E. BOWMAN, JR., B.A., M.L.S., M.A., M.Ed., Ed.D........................................... JAMES R. TALLON, JR., B.A., M.A. ................................................................................. MILTON L. COFIELD, B.S., M.B.A., Ph.D. ...................................................................... JOHN BRADEMAS, B.A., Ph.D. ........................................................................................ ROGER B. TILLES, B.A., J.D............................................................................................... KAREN BROOKS HOPKINS, B.A., M.F.A.......................................................................... Tonawanda Hollis New Rochelle Peru North Syracuse New York Belle Harbor Buffalo Hartsdale Albany Binghamton Rochester New York Great Neck Brooklyn

President of The University and Commissioner of Education RICHARD P. MILLS Senior Deputy Commissioner of Education: P-16 JOHANNA DUNCAN-POITIER Assistant Commissioner JOSEPH P. FREY Special Projects Coordinator NANCY WILLIE-SCHIFF

Executive Summary This second annual report on teacher supply and demand is part of the ongoing evaluation of the Regents 1998 teaching policy. It contains multiple indicators of teacher shortages in school year 2005-2006 for New York State as a whole and for the Big Five Cities, the Rest of State, 13 geographic regions and 18 subject areas. Workforce: Core Classes Not Taught by Highly Qualified Teachers. Federal law defines “highly qualified teachers” as teachers who have a bachelor’s or higher degree, meet State certification standards and have demonstrated that they know the subject(s) they teach. In 2005-2006, 5.5 percent of New York State’s classes in core academic subjects were taught by teachers who were not “highly qualified,” down from 7.9 percent in 2004-2005. However, high poverty schools still had a higher percent of core classes not taught by highly qualified teachers than low poverty schools. Workforce: Experienced Teachers. In 2005-2006, 5.1 percent of New York State’s full-time equivalent (FTE) teaching assignments were held by teachers with no prior teaching experience, compared to 4.8 percent in 2000-2001. New York City had 9.1 percent with no prior teaching experience, compared to 6.4 percent in 20002001. New York City’s 9.1 percent was nearly three times the rate of the Big Four Cities (3.0 percent) and other districts (3.4 percent) in 2005-2006. Workforce: Teaching Assignments Held by Teachers without Appropriate Certification. In 2005-2006, 7 percent of New York State’s full-time equivalent (FTE) teaching assignments were held by teachers without appropriate certification, down from 8 percent in 2004-2005 and from the peak of 13 percent in 2001-2002. The percent varied by subject area and geographic region. Subject Areas: New York State. Statewide, in 2005-2006, subject areas with 10 percent or more FTE teaching assignments held by teachers without appropriate certification included the arts, bilingual education, career and technical education, English as a second language, library and school media specialist and bilingual special education. Nearly all subjects in New York State had at least 5 percent of FTE teaching assignments held by teachers without appropriate certification. The only subject areas below 5 percent, which were not shortage subjects, were elementary and early childhood general education and elementary and early childhood special education. Geographic Regions. In 2005-2006, every region in New York State had a lower percent of FTE teaching assignments held by teachers without appropriate certification than in 2000-2001. In 2005-2006, the percent exceeded 5 percent in three of the Big Five Cities: New York (15 percent, down from 27 percent in 2000-2001), Rochester (8 percent, down from 15 percent in 2000-2001) and Syracuse (9 percent, up from 7 percent in 2000-2001).

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Supply of New Teachers: Program Completers and Certificates Issued to New Teachers. In 2005-2006, 24,300 certification candidates completed college teacher preparation programs, compared to 20,800 in 2004-2005, a one-year increase of 3,500 teacher candidates. In addition, more certificates were issued to new teachers (defined as teachers with no prior teaching experience in the prior 5 years) in 2005-2006 than in the prior year, with 20,600 issued via the College Recommended pathway and 10,200 via other pathways. Demand for New Teachers: Vacancies. In 2005-2006, there were 11,200 FTE teaching assignments filled by teachers with no prior teaching experience, 5.1 percent of the total, and an indicator of vacancies (demand) for new teachers. Vacancies for new teachers rose in nearly every subject area between 2000-2001 and 2005-2006, with the largest increases in subjects such as the arts, English, English as a second language, mathematics, and elementary special education. Increased vacancies were due primarily to “baby boomers” aging out of the workforce. Shortages and Surpluses: Certificates Issued to New Teachers per Vacancy for a New Teacher. In 2005-2006, New York City did not have enough new teachers to fill vacancies for new teachers in 10 subject areas. The Rest of State had enough teachers in every subject area, provided that all new teachers in the Rest of State were available to work wherever they were needed, which was unlikely to be the case. If the Individual Evaluation pathway to certification is eliminated in all subject areas in 2009 as planned and nothing else changes, there will be more shortages in every region of the State. In 2005-2006 there were statewide surpluses of new teachers in three subject areas: elementary and early childhood education; reading and literacy; and elementary and early childhood special education. Future Demand for New Teachers. Demand for new teachers in 2005-2006 is a good indicator of future demand because “baby boomers” will continue to age out of the workforce for some time. In 2005-2006, 17 percent of the workforce was age 55 or older (an increase over 2000-2001) and another 26 percent were age 45 to 54. In addition, policies – such as Universal Pre-kindergarten, full-day kindergarten, longer high school enrollment for students who need more time to meet State Learning Standards and more intensive academic support services – will increase total demand for teachers. Improved retention of new teachers, due to first-year mentoring, could moderate demand for new teachers. Meeting the Need. The Department is implementing three aligned plans (Statewide Plan for Higher Education; New York State’s Plan to Enhance Teacher Quality; and P-16 Education: A Plan for Action) to address gaps in teacher quality and increase the supply to meet demand. Each plan has both short-term and long-term approaches to meeting the need for certified and highly qualified teachers. Short-term approaches include, but are not limited to: - advocacy for a retirement bill to bring retired teachers back to the classroom in shortage areas for a limited time; ii

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financial incentives for teacher recruitment and retention in shortage areas, through Teachers of Tomorrow, the Teacher Opportunity Corps, federal loan forgiveness and other funding sources; increased opportunities for alternative teacher preparation in shortage areas with transitional, internship and supplementary certificates and with innovative teacher recruitment, such as the IBM initiative with industry partners; technical assistance for teacher recruitment and retention in high-need, lowperforming districts; and a review of teacher certification to find opportunities to add flexibility without compromising quality and to increase the supply of teachers in shortage areas.

Long-term approaches include, but are not limited to: - reports, interactive data tools and technical assistance to support teacher workforce planning by regional partnerships of P-12 districts and higher education; - external research on the effectiveness of teacher preparation and teacher certification as part of the ongoing evaluation of the Regents 1998 policy, and use of research findings to inform policy change; - new teacher preparation programs and teacher certification pathways for teaching assistants and paraprofessionals in high-need communities with teacher shortages; and - Planting the Seed, a multimedia approach to recruit teachers and licensed professionals from high-need, underserved communities. The Governor’s 2007-2008 Executive Budget and associated budget bills propose additional initiatives that would extend the three plans. Data uses. The 2004-2005 data in the Department’s first annual teacher supply and demand report were well-received and are being used by the P-16 education community, which is anticipating this second annual report with more recent data. The 2005-2006 data in this second report will be shared with college presidents, deans and directors of teacher education programs, BOCES District Superintendents, School District Superintendents and regional partnerships of P-12 and higher education leaders. The data will also be posted online. The 2005-2006 data will be used to help individuals make career choices and to help regional and statewide leaders improve teacher recruitment and retention initiatives. Individuals’ career decisions. The data will be used to inform college students about their chances of obtaining teaching jobs in specific subject areas and geographic regions. When used as part of high school and college advisement, the data will help encourage students to become teachers in subject areas where there are shortages and good chances for employment.

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Teacher workforce planning by regional partnerships. The data will be used by regional partnerships of teacher education institutions, school districts and BOCES to (1) identify immediate workforce needs and plan for alternative teacher preparation programs to meet them; and (2) identify longer term workforce needs and plan for recruitment of future teachers in shortage areas. The Department’s funding allocations. The data in this report can assist the Department in targeting its discretionary funds, including Teachers of Tomorrow and NCLB Title II discretionary funds, to help address teacher shortages. Regents policy decisions on certification requirements. The data in this report show the subject areas where revised supplementary certificate requirements could, without compromising quality, enable teachers to become certified in additional subject areas when they are certified in surplus subject areas and/or assigned to do out-of-field teaching. (Revised supplementary certificate requirements could help districts meet federal teacher quality requirements.) Regents policy decisions on the teacher certification structure. The data in this report will assist the Department’s and Regents examination of the certification structure that took effect in February 2004. Work is currently underway to examine the certification structure in special education to ensure that the structure itself is not contributing to shortages of special education teachers in Grades 7-12. The Department will continue to examine other certification areas and propose adjustments to the structure as warranted. Department’s future analysis of teacher supply and demand. The data in this report will guide analyses in future reports on teacher supply and demand as the Department tracks the impact of: o the “aging out” of baby boomers in all subject areas; o policies on universal Pre-Kindergarten; and o policies that encourage class size reduction.

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Contents Part 1 2 3 Page Background ........................................................................................................ 1 Methodology ........................................................................................................ 2 Findings ............................................................................................................... 5 Workforce Indicator 1 ........................................................................................... 5 Percent of core classes not taught by highly qualified teachers Workforce Indicator 2 ........................................................................................... 6 Percent of FTE teaching assignments held by teachers with no prior teaching experience Workforce Indicator 3 ........................................................................................... 6 Percent of FTE teaching assignments held by teachers without appropriate certification Supply and Demand Indicator 1 ......................................................................... 14 Potential supply of new teachers Supply and Demand Indicator 2 ......................................................................... 18 Demand for new teachers Supply and Demand Indicator 3 ......................................................................... 20 Certificates issued to new teachers per FTE vacancy for a new teacher All Indicators ...................................................................................................... 27 Summary of shortages in subject areas 4 5 Future Demand for New Teachers ..................................................................... 28 Meeting the Need ............................................................................................... 33

Appendices A B C D Counties within Regions ..................................................................................... 35 Subject Areas ..................................................................................................... 36 Percent of Core Classes Not Taught by Highly Qualified Teachers in 2005-2006 ...................................................................................................... 41 References ...................................................................................................... 45

Part 1 Background To raise student achievement and close achievement gaps, all teachers must be qualified to help all children learn. This relationship is the basis of State and federal teacher policies. State policy. The Board of Regents 1998 teaching policy, Teaching to Higher Standards: New York’s Commitment, and its implementing regulations set high standards for New York State’s teachers. They must: be prepared to teach all students to meet State Learning Standards; be assigned to teach classes for which they are appropriately certified; and have annual professional development and performance reviews. Federal policy. The No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 (NCLB) and the 2004 reauthorization of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) raised standards for teachers. All public school classes in core academic subjects must be taught by highly qualified teachers who: - have a bachelor’s or higher degree; - meet State certification standards; and - demonstrate they know the subjects they teach using one of the methods prescribed in law. Low-income and minority students must be taught at the same rate as other students by qualified, in-field and experienced teachers. Shared responsibility. Meeting these standards requires a foundation of public support and the coordinated efforts of: colleges and universities; local, state and federal government; local schools, districts and BOCES; and the private sector (unions, business, philanthropy and others). Evaluation. The Regents 1998 teaching policy called for evaluations to “assure that New York has enough qualified teachers statewide.” The Department issued: the first annual report on teacher supply and demand in May 2006; a gap analysis of 2004-2005 highly qualified teachers in the September 2006 teacher quality plan submitted to the U.S. Department of Education pursuant to federal law and a January 2007 updated gap analysis of 2005-2006 highly qualified teachers; and a February 2007 report on projected shortages of special education teachers. Compared to the May 2006 report on teacher supply and demand, this report has new definitions suggested by the teacher preparation community that yield more accurate estimates of teacher supply and more regional data to support teacher workforce planning by regional partnerships of P-12 education and higher education. It also has new indicators of future demand for new teachers. 1

Part 2 Methodology Multiple indicators were used to estimate teacher shortages in 2005-2006. Three indicators were based on the 2005-2006 public school workforce. Three others were based on the supply of new teachers in 2005-2006, demand for new teachers in 20052006 and comparisons of supply and demand. Data sources. The New York State Education Department’s Basic Educational Data System (BEDS) Personnel Master File (PMF) was the source of teacher workforce data. BEDS workforce data were not available for 2002-2003 so that year is omitted from this report. The Department’s TEACH system was the source for teacher certification data. Program completer data came from teacher preparation institutions by way of National Evaluation Systems, the contractor for New York State Teacher Certification Examinations. Geographic regions. Geographic regions were defined to support regional planning. The counties in each region are shown in Appendix A. Subject areas. Eighteen subject areas, listed in Appendix B, were used to classify both teaching assignments and certificates issued, more than in the 2006 report in order to provide more detailed information. The four special education subject areas used in this report, which are explained fully in Appendix B, include the following. Special Education All Grades (Not Bilingual) includes assignments and certificate titles for specific disabilities (e.g., speech and language, hearing, sight) that were not subject to the 2004 reforms that added developmental levels to other special education certificates and were not included in the February 2007 Regents Item on shortages of special education teachers. Special Education Elementary (Not Bilingual) includes assignments and certificates titles for Early Childhood and Childhood Education. These certificate titles were included in the February 2007 Regents Item. Special Education Middle/Secondary (Not Bilingual) includes assignments and certificate titles for Middle Childhood and Adolescence Education. These certificate titles were included in the February 2007 Regents Item. Special Education All Grades (Bilingual) includes assignments in special education delivered in bilingual format. There is no special education bilingual extension, so there is no certificate data for this subject area. Workforce indicators of teacher shortages Purposes. These indicators show what actually happened in the public school workforce as a result of both teacher shortages and administrative decisions about teaching assignments. Federal laws require workforce indicators to: determine whether schools and districts are meeting federal teacher quality goals; and

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identify subject areas that make teachers eligible for selected federal student aid benefits such as loan cancellation. Definitions of shortages. For our purposes, workforce data indicates shortages when: five percent or more of all classes in core academic subjects are not taught by highly qualified teachers (Workforce Indicator 1); a higher than average percentage of full-time equivalent (FTE) teaching assignments are held by teachers with no prior teaching experience (Workforce Indicator 2); and five percent or more of all FTE teaching assignments are held by teachers without appropriate certification for their assignments (Workforce Indicator 3). The definition of FTE teaching assignments changed slightly since the 2006 report. In the earlier report, they included subject-specific non-teaching assignments such as department chairmanships or curriculum leaders. The 2007 report is limited to teaching assignments only. To estimate shortages, it is better to count FTE teaching assignments than teachers because FTE assignments provide a way to measure out-of-field teaching done by certified teachers as part of their total teaching duties. Full-time equivalent (FTE) teaching assignments held by teachers without appropriate certification include: classes in approved “incidental” subjects, due to demonstrated shortages, as permitted by State regulation; before September 1, 2005, classes taught by individuals with temporary or modified temporary licenses, as permitted by State regulation; classes taught by uncertified charter school teachers, as permitted by State law; classes taught by certified teachers doing out-of-field teaching beyond approved “incidental” teaching, due to shortages or administrative decisions; classes taught by uncertified individuals serving as long-term substitutes, as permitted by State regulation; and classes taught by uncertified individuals for unknown reasons. Supply and demand indicators of teacher shortages and surpluses Supply and demand indicators require estimates of teacher supply, estimates of demand for teachers and a method for comparing the two estimates. In this report, all estimates are limited to the supply of and demand for new teachers. These estimates ignore demand for experienced teachers that is met when experienced teachers transfer from one district to another or become certified in new subject areas.

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Potential supply of new teachers. The potential supply of new teachers is measured as certificates issued to new teachers. (Supply and Demand Indicator 1) Supply is “potential” because not all new teachers are available to work wherever they are needed. “New teachers” are those who were not in New York State’s public school workforce during the five years prior to certification, a change from the 2006 teacher supply and demand report that yields better estimates of the supply of new teachers, especially in the subject area of Literacy. Certificates issued to new teachers can be issued to candidates from one of three pathways: − the College Recommended Pathway, which includes traditional, transitional and internship routes; − the Individual Evaluation pathway, for candidates who complete educational requirements at multiple institutions or have a supplementary certificate; and − the Interstate Reciprocity pathway for candidates certified in other states. Supply is “placed” in geographic areas based on the mailing address in a teacher’s certification record and demand is “placed” in the same areas based on the locations of schools with vacancies for new teachers. Teachers’ mailing addresses are likely to be “home” addresses but there is no way to be sure. To the extent that they are “home” addresses, they are likely to indicate where teachers would be available to work because at least 85 percent of all teachers employed in New York State’s public schools teach within 40 miles of where they went to high school (Boyd, 2005). Demand for new teachers. Demand for new teachers is measured as FTE teaching assignments held by teachers with no prior experience. These assignments represent vacancies filled by new teachers. (Supply and Demand Indicator 2) Supply compared to demand. The indicator that compares supply and demand is a simple ratio representing the number of certificates issued to new teachers divided by the number of FTE vacancies for new teachers. (Supply and Demand Indicator 3) For this report: a shortage occurs when there are fewer than 1.5 certificates issued to new teachers for each FTE vacancy for a new teacher; a possible balance of supply and demand occurs when there are 1.6 to 3.0 certificates issued to new teachers for each FTE vacancy for a new teacher; and a possible surplus occurs when there are 3.1 or more certificates to new teachers for each FTE vacancy for a new teacher. A shortage is defined as fewer than 1.5 certificates issued to new teachers for each vacancy for a new teacher, rather than 1.0 certificate per vacancy, because some new teachers receive multiple certificates in the same year and one certificate does not necessarily equate to one teacher. 4

Part 3 Findings Workforce Indicator 1 Percent of core classes not taught by highly qualified teachers New York State’s public schools reduced the percent of core classes not taught by highly qualified teachers to 5.5 percent in 2005-2006, down from 7.9 percent in 20042005, a 2.4 percentage point improvement. In 2005-2006: high poverty elementary schools had 8.1 percent of core classes not taught by highly qualified teachers, down from 18.3 percent in 2004-2005, a 10.2 percentage point improvement; and high poverty middle and secondary schools had 17.4 percent of core classes not taught by highly qualified teachers, down from 19.7 percent in 2004-2005, a 2.3 percentage point improvement. (Figure 1) Federal law defines low poverty and high poverty schools as the top and bottom onefourth (quartiles) of schools when schools are sorted by their poverty level. Teachers in high poverty schools were identified as not highly qualified primarily because they did not have appropriate certification for their assignments. For more detailed information about the subject areas and districts that had 5 percent or more of their core classes not taught by highly qualified teachers in 2005-2006, please refer to the tables in Appendix C of this report and to the January 2007 press release at http://www.emsc.nysed.gov/irts/press-release/20070108/home.htm.

Figure 1

New York State Percent of Classes in Core Academic Subjects Not Taught by Highly Qualified Teachers

19.7% 18.3% 17.4%

7.9% 5.5%

8.1%

2.8% 1.9% 0.9%

2.2%

All schools

High poverty elementary schools

Low poverty elementary schools

High poverty Low poverty middle & middle & secondary schools secondary schools

2004-2005

2005-2006

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Workforce Indicator 2 Percent of FTE teaching assignments held by teachers with no prior teaching experience Federal law requires low-income and minority students to have teachers with the same qualifications and experience as other students. Teachers with no prior teaching experience are less likely than more experienced teachers to be effective at improving student achievement, and low-income and minority students are more likely than other students to have inexperienced teachers (Peske and Haycock, 2006). The percent of FTE teaching assignments held by teachers with no prior teaching experience in New York State rose from 4.8 percent in 2000-2001 to 5.1 percent in 2005-2006, primarily because of New York City. New York City students were nearly three times as likely to have inexperienced teachers as students in the Big Four Cities or other regions. In 2005-2006, New York City had 9.1 percent of FTE teaching assignments held by teachers with no prior experience compared to 3.0 percent in the Big Four Cities and 3.4 percent in other regions of the State. (Figure 2)

Figure 2

New York State Percent of FTE Teaching Assignments Held by Teachers with No Prior Experience in Any District
9.1%

2000-01

2005-06

6.4%

4.8%

5.1%

5.1% 4.0% 3.4% 3.0%

New York State

New York City

Big 4 Cities

Rest of State Excl Big 4

Workforce Indicator 3 Percent of FTE teaching assignments held by teachers without appropriate certification New York State’s public schools reduced the percent of all FTE assignments (which includes core classes and non-core classes) taught by teachers without appropriate certification to 7 percent in 2005-2006, down from a peak of 13 percent in 2001-2002. (Figure 3) Multiple strategies account for this progress: The Regents eliminated temporary licenses and modified temporary licenses as of September 2005. 6

The Regents established new pathways to certification to enable school districts to recruit career changers as new teachers. The Regents required all first year teachers to receive mentoring to help them succeed and encourage them to remain in the classroom. The Teachers of Tomorrow program and other State and federal programs provided resources to school districts for teacher recruitment and retention. Federal teacher quality requirements and federal funding enhanced local and State efforts to recruit and retain teachers.

Figure 3

New York State FTE Teaching Assignments Held by Teachers Without Appropriate Certification
13%

12%

8%

8% 7%

x

27,200

27,700
x

16,500

16,700

14,400

2000-01

2001-02

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

The percent of all FTE assignments (core and non-core) held by teachers without appropriate certification declined in all 18 subject areas in New York State between 2001-2002 and 2005-2006. (Data for 2002-2003 is omitted throughout this report because workforce data are not available for that year.) (Figure 4)

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Figure 4

New York State Percent of FTE Teaching Assignments Held by Teachers without Appropriate Certification
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Art, Music, Theatre, Dance Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) Career & Technical Education Elementary & Early Childhood English ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) Languages Other Than English Library & School Media Specialist Mathematics Other Teaching Physical Education Reading & Literacy Sciences Social Studies Sp.Ed. All Grades (Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. All Grades (Not Bilingual) Grand Total

2000-2001

2005-2006

In the context of statewide progress, there was considerable variation among the large cities and the 13 regions of the State. (Figures 5-12) New York City. New York City made progress in many subject areas between 2000-2001 and 2005-2006. However, 15 percent of all FTE teaching assignments were held by teachers without appropriate certification in 20052006. The least progress was made in Career and Technical Education and middle and secondary level Special Education. (Figures 5 and 6) Big Four Cities. Each of the Big Four Cities had FTE teaching assignments held by teachers without appropriate certification in 2005-2006. Rochester and Syracuse had the largest percentages. (Figures 7 and 8) Rest of State Excluding Big Four Cities. The Rest of State outside the Big Four Cities had lower percentages of FTE teaching assignments held by teachers without appropriate certification than the Four Big Cities and New York City. In 2005-2006, four subject areas still had 5 percent or more, an indicator of shortages. They were Bilingual Education, Special Education, Languages other than English (LOTE), Career and Technical Education (CTE) and English for Speakers of Other Languages (ESOL). (Figures 9 and 10) Thirteen Regions. Every region had some FTE teaching assignments held by teachers without appropriate certification in 2005-2006. New York City had 80 percent of all such assignments and the highest percentages of any region. (Figures 11 and 12)

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Figure 5

New York City Percent of FTE Teaching Assignments Held by Teachers without Appropriate Certification
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Art, Music, Theatre, Dance Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) Career & Technical Education Elementary & Early Childhood English ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) Languages Other Than English Library & School Media Specialist Mathematics Other Teaching Physical Education Reading & Literacy Sciences Social Studies Sp.Ed. All Grades (Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. All Grades (Not Bilingual) Grand Total

2000-2001

2005-2006

New York City: Shortage Subjects in 2005-2006 Percent of FTE Teaching Assignments Subject Areas Held by Teachers Without Appropriate Certification Library & School Media Specialist Art, Music, Theatre, Dance Over 30% Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) Career & Technical Education Physical Education Sciences 21 to 30% Sp.Ed. All Grades (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. All Grades (Bilingual) Reading & Literacy Languages Other Than English ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) English Mathematics 11 to 20% Social Studies Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) Other Teaching Elementary & Early Childhood Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) 5 to 10% Shortage subjects have 5% or more FTE teaching assignments held by teachers without appropriate certification.

Figure 6

%

47% 38% 36% 31% 23% 22% 22% 20% 20% 19% 17% 15% 15% 12% 12% 10% 7% 5%

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Figure 7
Art, Music, Theatre, Dance Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) Career & Technical Education Elementary & Early Childhood English ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) Languages Other Than English Library & School Media Specialist Mathematics Other Teaching Physical Education Reading & Literacy Sciences Social Studies

Big Four Cities Percent of 2005-2006 FTE Teaching Assignments Held by Teachers without Appropriate Certification
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Buffalo CSD
Rochester CSD
Syracuse CSD
Yonkers CSD

100%

Sp.Ed. All Grades (Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. All Grades (Not Bilingual) Grand Total
The 100% in Syracuse was due to 6 FTE assignments.

Figure 8

Big Four Cities: Shortage Subjects in 2005-2006 Percent of FTE Teaching Assignments Subject Areas Held by Teachers Without Appropriate Certification Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) 21 to 30% Sp.Ed. All Grades (Bilingual) Languages Other Than English 11 to 20% Career & Technical Education Library & School Media Specialist Reading & Literacy Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) Sciences 5 to 10% Other Teaching ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) Mathematics Art, Music, Theatre, Dance English Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) Less than 5% (not shortage subjects) Social Studies Sp.Ed. All Grades (Not Bilingual) Elementary & Early Childhood Physical Education

% 32% 20% 19% 15% 14% 10% 9% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2%

Shortage subjects have 5% or more FTE teaching assignments held by teachers without appropriate certification.

Grey shading denotes subject areas without shortages as defined by this workforce indicator.

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Figure 9

Rest of State Excluding Big Four Cities Percent of FTE Teaching Assignments Held by Teachers without Appropriate Certification
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Art, Music, Theatre, Dance Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) Career & Technical Education Elementary & Early Childhood English ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) Languages Other Than English Library & School Media Specialist Mathematics Other Teaching Physical Education Reading & Literacy Sciences Social Studies Sp.Ed. All Grades (Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. All Grades (Not Bilingual) Grand Total

2000-2001

2005-2006

Rest of State Excluding Big Four Cities: Shortage Subjects in 2005-2006 Percent of FTE Teaching Assignments Subject Areas Held by Teachers Without Appropriate Certification Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) 11 to 20% Sp.Ed. All Grades (Bilingual) Languages Other Than English 5 to 10% Career & Technical Education ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) Sciences Reading & Literacy Library & School Media Specialist Other Teaching Sp.Ed. All Grades (Not Bilingual) Art, Music, Theatre, Dance Less than 5% English (not shortage subjects) Mathematics Social Studies Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) Physical Education Elementary & Early Childhood Shortage subjects have 5% or more FTE teaching assignments held by teachers without appropriate certification.

Figure 10

% 14% 12% 7% 6% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Grey shading denotes subject areas without shortages as defined by this workforce indicator.

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Figure 11

FTE Teaching Assignments Held by Teachers without Appropriate Certification in 2005-2006
S o u th e r n T ie r - C e n tr a l G e n e s e e -F in g e r L a k e s U p p e r M o h a w k V a lle y L a k e C h a m p la in -L a k e G e o rg e S o u th e r n T ie r - W e s t S o u th e r n T ie r - E a s t

Subject Areas Art, Music, Theatre, Dance Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) Career & Technical Education Elementary & Early Childhood English ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) Languages Other Than English Library & School Media Specialist Mathematics Other Teaching Physical Education Reading & Literacy Sciences Social Studies Sp.Ed. All Grades (Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. All Grades (Not Bilingual) Grand Total - All Subjects
Shaded column headings denote regions with a Big Five City.

7 22 4 4 4 17 3 4 6 0 4 13 7 2 5 99

19 4 48 44 12 8 39 9 19 17 3 16 19 9 6 20 27 6 324

23 39 76 51 16 6 36 16 32 27 9 22 35 15 3 19 22 9 457

6 27 5 5 0 19 1 4 6 5 4 12 8 3 3 3 112

60 10 86 81 46 21 89 18 52 48 21 29 91 36 31 71 12 803

35 14 77 66 22 28 65 7 16 29 11 31 54 18 0 15 32 5 525

1,331 467 586 1,482 771 388 292 311 821 402 554 287 1,003 526 61 618 1,025 42 10,965

3 12 4 3 1 10 2 4 2 1 0 6 3 4 7 3 63

11 32 8 14 3 22 2 9 5 2 12 29 11 11 31 3 204

5 26 2 6 2 12 1 4 5 3 5 10 3 4 8 0 97

38 46 45 26 7 36 11 16 14 8 28 34 13 18 25 1 364

6 1 13 10 4 7 16 6 7 5 0 3 8 3 1 8 5 104

19 7 37 29 10 7 33 3 13 30 3 11 30 15 16 17 4 283

Appendix A describes regions. Appendix B explains Subject Areas.

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N e w Y o r k S ta te 1,564 541 1,087 1,830 939 483 685 390 1,002 595 618 453 1,344 666 70 761 1,281 94 14,403

N a s s a u -S u ffo lk

B la c k R iv e r -S t L a w re n c e

Upper H udson

N e w Y o r k C ity

M id -H u d s o n

W e s te r n

C e n tr a l

Figure 12

Percent of FTE Teaching Assignments Held by Teachers without Appropriate Certification in 2005-2006
N e w Y o rk S ta te 11% 33% 11% 3% 6% 12% 10% 12% 6% 6% 6% 7% 9% 5% 20% 5% 8% 2% 7% N a s s a u -S u ffo lk S o u th e r n T ie r C e n tra l S o u th e r n T ie r East S o u th e r n T ie r W est Upper M ohaw k V a lle y 2% 100% 5% 1% 2% 19% 13% 8% 3% 2% 0% 3% 3% 1% 0% 3% 7% 3% B la c k R iv e r -S t L a w re n c e Upper Hudson N e w Y o r k C ity G eneseeF in g e r L a k e s Lake C h a m p la in L a k e G e o rg e M id -H u d s o n W e s te rn 2% 14% 5% 1% 1% 7% 6% 1% 1% 5% 0% 3% 3% 2% 0% 2% 1% 1% 2%

Subject Areas Art, Music, Theatre, Dance Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) Career & Technical Education Elementary & Early Childhood English ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) Languages Other Than English Library & School Media Specialist Mathematics Other Teaching Physical Education Reading & Literacy Sciences Social Studies Sp.Ed. All Grades (Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. All Grades (Not Bilingual) Grand Total - All Subjects
Shaded column headings denote regions with a Big Five City.

2% 7% 0% 2% 34% 12% 5% 2% 3% 0% 2% 5% 3% 1% 2% 0% 2%

C e n tra l 2% 36% 8% 2% 2% 11% 10% 5% 3% 3% 1% 5% 3% 1% 100% 3% 4% 2% 3%

2% 58% 8% 1% 2% 3% 6% 6% 3% 3% 1% 5% 3% 2% 24% 2% 2% 2% 3%

2% 10% 1% 2% 2% 14% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 5% 3% 1% 1% 2% 3%

3% 9% 7% 1% 2% 4% 8% 4% 3% 4% 1% 3% 5% 2% 0% 2% 3% 2% 3%

1% 13% 5% 1% 1% 4% 4% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 6% 1% 1% 0% 1%

38% 36% 31% 7% 15% 17% 19% 47% 15% 10% 23% 20% 22% 12% 20% 12% 22% 5% 15%

2% 6% 1% 2% 60% 11% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 3% 2% 2% 3% 4% 2%

2% 8% 0% 3% 6% 9% 1% 2% 2% 0% 4% 6% 2% 3% 5% 2% 3%

2% 10% 0% 2% 11% 9% 2% 1% 2% 1% 3% 3% 1% 2% 3% 0% 2%

4% 6% 1% 3% 9% 7% 4% 2% 2% 1% 5% 4% 2% 2% 2% 0% 3%

Appendix A describes regions. Appendix B explains Subject Areas.

13

Supply and Demand Indicator 1 Potential supply of new teachers New teachers are teachers who were not in the public school workforce for the five years prior to their certification. The supply of new teachers is “potential” because not all new teachers are available to work where there are vacancies for them. Potential supply can be measured as teacher education program completers and as certificates issued to new teachers from all pathways to certification. Pathways to certification are: the College Recommended pathway, which includes traditional, transitional and internship routes to certification; the Individual Evaluation pathway for candidates who meet educational requirements for certification at multiple institutions or have a supplementary certificate; and the Interstate Reciprocity pathway for candidates certified in other states. Certificates issued. The potential supply of new teachers from all three certification pathways rose slightly between 2000-2001 and 2005-2006, from nearly 27,400 in 20002001 to over 30,800 in 2005-2006, with an unusual peak in 2003-2004 before a major policy change took effect in 2004. In 2005-2006, the College Recommended pathway accounted for a larger share of all certificates issued to new teachers than it did in 20002001, up from 63 to 67 percent. (Figures 13 and 14) Figure 13

Pathways to Certification for New Teachers
2000-2001 NUMBER OF CERTIFICATES ISSUED College Recommended Individual Evaluation Interstate Reciprocity PERCENT OF TOTAL College Recommended Individual Evaluation Interstate Reciprocity 27,360 17,190 8,050 2,130 100% 63% 29% 8% 2005-2006 30,830 20,610 7,930 2,300 100% 67% 26% 7%

Numbers rounded to nearest 10.

Program completers. The number of program completers provides a less reliable estimate of supply than certificates issued because program completers are individuals who may or may not seek certification in New York State and who can receive more than one certificate in the same year. The number of program completers rose from 18,600 in 2000-2001 to 24,300 in 2005-2006. New York State has more teacher education program completers than any other single state (U.S. Department of Education, 2006). The relationship between teacher education program completers and certificates issued to new teachers is not the same each year, as shown in Figure 14.

14

Figure 14

New York State Potential Supply of New Teachers

29,900 27,200

24,100 18,600
17,200

24,300 20,800
20,600 16,800

19,200
17,000

10,200 8,100 9,200

10,200

2000-01

2001-02

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

College Recommended teacher education program completers

Certificates issued to new teachers from College Recommended pathway

Certificates issued to new teachers from other pathways
"New teachers" were not in the public school workforce in the 5 years prior to receiving their certificate(s).

Data for 2002-2003 were omitted from Figure 14 and this entire report because workforce data are not available for that year. On the following pages, the potential supply of new teachers indicated by certificates issued to new teachers is shown for each subject area and for each of the 13 regions of the State. All pathways to certification. In New York State, more than 30,800 certificates were issued to new teachers from all pathways in 2005-2006. They were issued to teachers whose certification records had mailing addresses in every region of the State. (Figure 15) College Recommended pathway to certification. More than 20,600 certificates were issued to new teachers from the College Recommended pathway in 20052006. These certificates were issued to teachers with mailing addresses in every region of the State, but there were some subject areas and regions with no certificates issued through this pathway. (Figure 16)

15

Figure 15

Certificates from All Pathways Issued to New Teachers in 2005-2006
N e w Y o r k S ta t e 1,262 266 638 11,539 1,903 576 638 215 1,779 370 814 951 1,485 1,638 1,788 4,097 863 30,822 S o u th e r n T ie r C e n tr a l S o u th e r n T ie r East N a s s a u -S u ffo lk S o u th e r n T ie r W est Upper M ohaw k V a lle y 15 14 172 36 1 6 1 29 4 16 13 23 16 24 49 10 430 B la c k R iv e r -S t L a w re n c e Upper Hudson N e w Y o r k C ity G eneseeF in g e r L a k e s Lake C h a m p la in L a k e G e o rg e M id -H u d s o n W e s te r n 117 3 85 829 170 13 38 19 134 54 83 40 143 155 165 189 34 2,271 C e n tr a l 54 39 468 84 9 22 17 66 9 28 50 64 80 63 186 23 1,264

Subject Areas Art, Music, Theatre, Dance Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) Career & Technical Education Elementary & Early Childhood English ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) Languages Other Than English Library & School Media Specialist Mathematics Other Teaching Physical Education Reading & Literacy Sciences Social Studies
SPECIAL ED-ALL GRADES SPECIAL ED-ELEMENTARY-NOT BILINGUAL SPECIAL ED-MIDDLE/SEC-NOT BILINGUAL ---------------------

Grand Total - All Subjects

31 9 222 38 13 6 26 5 19 27 19 35 27 41 9 528

111 1 73 780 144 28 44 25 142 39 112 85 144 159 146 357 111 2,507

17 12 139 30 9 5 23 3 9 28 32 31 25 36 5 405

172 16 70 1,538 220 62 102 31 209 35 94 127 184 237 209 467 97 3,870

306 42 159 2,696 351 104 162 56 403 116 242 221 387 366 422 1,094 132 7,267

289 203 61 3,495 635 341 179 27 589 77 108 127 309 326 552 1,421 391 9,114

17 9 110 14 5 4 3 4 10 24 13 16 16 19 6 274

25 23 303 50 15 3 38 7 22 41 58 47 38 56 13 742

21 12 164 22 3 8 5 27 5 17 25 24 37 20 37 14 442

87 1 70 623 108 14 36 14 89 10 53 142 84 131 82 143 18 1,708

Shaded column headings denote regions with a Big Five City. Certificates assigned to regions based on mailing address in certification records. Out-of-state addresses distributed into regions.

Appendix A describes regions. Appendix B explains Subject Areas.

16

Figure 16

Certificates from the College Recommended Pathway Issued to New Teachers in 2005-2006
S o u t h e r n T ie r C e n tra l S o u t h e r n T ie r East S o u t h e r n T ie r W est N e w Y o rk S ta te 772 160 219 8,137 1,260 385 282 119 1,234 121 507 719 850 1,107 675 3,428 628 20,603 N a s s a u - S u f f o lk Upper M ohaw k V a lle y 8 8 125 25 4 15 3 12 10 17 14 12 37 4 296 B la c k R iv e r - S t L a w re n c e Upper Hudson N e w Y o r k C it y G eneseeF in g e r L a k e s Lake C h a m p la in L a k e G e o rg e M id - H u d s o n W e s te rn 77 3 40 623 124 2 17 14 109 16 57 25 84 114 63 128 10 1,503 C e n tra l 33 15 346 59 1 10 13 45 7 19 37 42 55 28 153 17 881

Subject Areas Art, Music, Theatre, Dance Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) Career & Technical Education Elementary & Early Childhood English ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) Languages Other Than English Library & School Media Specialist Mathematics Other Teaching Physical Education Reading & Literacy Sciences Social Studies
SPECIAL ED-ALL GRADES SPECIAL ED-ELEMENTARY-NOT BILINGUAL SPECIAL ED-MIDDLE/SEC-NOT BILINGUAL ---------------------

Grand Total - All Subjects

19 1 162 32 5 3 16 1 15 20 13 28 7 29 7 357

77 1 45 621 94 22 20 12 99 19 79 74 92 117 87 325 86 1,872

9 2 79 20 3 4 8 1 5 18 15 17 2 30 1 214

105 10 10 1,028 140 35 34 21 142 6 56 105 118 151 61 389 71 2,483

208 30 40 1,851 202 71 71 32 253 47 159 155 207 258 134 915 71 4,708

152 114 12 2,552 447 247 91 6 451 7 41 99 178 201 242 1,241 347 6,413

9 2 53 5 1 1 1 3 7 18 1 12 4 14 133 -

9 8 206 33 8 3 20 4 12 31 24 28 17 30 5 439

11 2 109 16 3 2 3 20 3 12 19 15 30 6 16 267

56 1 33 381 62 3 16 7 56 4 32 109 45 81 13 122 8 1,036

Shaded column headings denote regions with a Big Five City. Certificates assigned to regions based on mailing address in certification records. Out-of-state addresses distributed into regions.
Appendix A describes regions. Appendix B explains Subject Areas.

17

Supply and Demand Indicator 2 Demand for new teachers Demand for new teachers is defined as FTE teaching assignments held by teachers in their first year of experience in any district. These FTE teaching assignments represent FTE vacancies that were filled by new teachers. Between 2000-2001 and 2005-2006, the total number of FTE vacancies for new teachers in New York State rose 11 percent from over 10,100 to over 11,200, after a peak of more than 11,600 in 2004-2005. In that same period, the number of FTE vacancies rose in 11 out of 18 subject areas. (Figure 17) Figure 17
0 Art, Music, Theatre, Dance Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) Career & Technical Education Elementary & Early Childhood English ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) Languages Other Than English Library & School Media Specialist Mathematics Other Teaching Physical Education Reading & Literacy Sciences Social Studies Sp.Ed. All Grades (Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. All Grades (Not Bilingual)

New York State FTE Vacancies for New Teachers
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

2000-2001 2005-2006
Vacancies for new teachers are defined as FTE teaching assignments held by teachers with no prior experience in any district.

The more than 11,200 FTE vacancies for new teachers in 2005-2006 were distributed among all the regions of New York State. More than half of them were in New York City and another tenth were in Nassau and Suffolk counties on Long Island. (Figure 18)

18

Figure 18

FTE VACANCIES FOR NEW TEACHERS: FTE Teaching Assignments Held by Teachers with No Prior Teaching Experience in 2005-2006
S o u th e r n T ie r - E a s t L a k e C h a m p la in L a k e G e o rg e G e n e s e e -F in g e r Lakes N e w Y o r k S ta te 647 134 339 2,889 1,017 295 353 105 1,163 527 359 115 800 766 21 947 684 85 11,245 N a s s a u -S u ffo lk S o u th e r n T ie r C e n tr a l S o u th e r n T ie r W est Upper M ohaw k V a lle y 13 9 37 20 6 1 11 12 7 2 9 9 9 6 151 B la c k R iv e r -S t L a w re n c e Upper Hudson N e w Y o r k C ity

M id -H u d s o n

Subject Areas Art, Music, Theatre, Dance Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) Career & Technical Education Elementary & Early Childhood English ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) Languages Other Than English Library & School Media Specialist Mathematics Other Teaching Physical Education Reading & Literacy Sciences Social Studies Sp.Ed. All Grades (Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. All Grades (Not Bilingual) Grand Total - All Subjects
Shaded column headings denote regions with a Big Five City.

6 4 33 7 6 3 6 7 2 3 6 4 9 4 3 103

9 1 20 63 31 2 17 8 36 29 12 7 25 24 30 20 3 337

47 6 38 132 51 6 17 17 56 34 20 9 45 47 1 43 25 6 598

5 9 19 8 6 6 13 6 11 6 9 9 11 4 1 122

61 1 33 162 69 13 38 9 93 40 34 10 81 64 76 44 11 838

117 7 70 217 100 31 69 21 129 72 72 14 114 90 71 64 12 1,268

288 120 83 1,882 634 237 137 14 690 245 149 31 420 443 20 610 444 39 6,485

10 4 32 6 6 1 9 6 2 0 8 6 5 6 99 -

11 13 58 21 11 6 23 10 9 5 17 15 20 16 1 234

8 10 30 9 1 10 1 13 11 8 6 9 4 10 12 1 143

40 23 120 33 1 18 13 44 25 14 12 29 32 22 18 4 449

Appendix A describes regions. Appendix B explains Subject Areas.

19

W e s te r n 31 25 104 29 5 12 6 41 29 19 10 29 19 31 21 5 417

C e n tr a l

Supply and Demand Indicator 3 Certificates issued to new teachers per FTE vacancy for a new teacher By comparing the potential supply of new teachers to FTE vacancies for new teachers, estimates can be made of shortages, possible balances and possible surpluses of new teachers. Comparisons were made for three geographic areas: New York City; the Rest of State including the Big Four Cities; and the 13 regions of New York State. For each comparison, potential supply is considered to be available everywhere within the geographic area. It was not feasible to separate the Rest of State and the Big Four Cities because the Big Four Cities recruit teachers from their metropolitan areas and teachers’ mailing addresses could not be “placed” definitively in city boundaries except in New York City where city and county boundaries are the same. Estimates of shortages, possible balances and possible surpluses were based on specific criteria. • Shortages were defined as fewer than 1.5 certificates issued to new teachers with mailing addresses in the geographic area per FTE vacancy for a new teacher in the same geographic area. The threshold of 1.5 certificates was used to account for the fact that one certificate does not equate to one teacher because some new teachers receive more than one certificate in the same year. Possible balances were defined as from 1.6 to 3.0 certificates issued per FTE vacancy. Balances are only “possible” because not every teacher with a mailing address in a geographic area was actually available to fill vacancies in that area. Possible surpluses were defined as more than 3.0 certificates issued to new teachers with a mailing address in a geographic area per FTE vacancy for a new teacher in the same geographic area. Surpluses are only “possible” because not every teacher with a mailing address in a geographic area was actually available to fill vacancies in that area.

Shortages, possible balances and possible surpluses were estimated under two scenarios: what actually happened in 2005-2006, based on all pathways to certification; and what would have happened if only the College Recommended pathway had been available because the Individual Evaluation pathway was terminated as planned in 2009 and nothing else changed. Shortages could have been worse than those estimated in this report. Some new teachers would not have been available to fill vacancies in their geographic area because they were unable to relocate, went to graduate school, taught in public schools in another area of New York State, taught in non-public schools in New York State, taught outside New York State or pursued other careers or personal goals.

20

New York City In 2005-2006, 10 subject areas had fewer than 1.5 certificates issued to new teachers with mailing addresses in New York City for each vacancy for a new teacher in New York City. If new teachers had only come from the College Recommended pathway to certification, 13 subject areas would have had shortages. (Figure 19)

Figure 19

NEW YORK CITY Shortage and Surplus Subjects in 2005-2006 Number of certificates issued to new teachers per vacancy for a new teacher

SHORTAGE CATEGORY

0 to 1.0 = SEVERE SHORTAGE

Certificates from All Pathways Physical Education Sciences Career & Technical Education Social Studies Mathematics Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) English Art, Music, Theatre, Dance

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0

1.1 to 1.5 = SHORTAGE 1.6 to 3.0 = POSSIBLE BALANCE MORE THAN 3.0 = POSSIBLE SURPLUS

Languages Other Than English ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) Elementary & Early Childhood Library & School Media Specialist Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual)

1.3 1.4 1.7 Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) 1.9 1.9 2.3

Certificates from College Recommended Pathway Only Career & Technical Education 0.1 Physical Education 0.3 Sciences 0.4 Library & School Media Specialist 0.4 Social Studies 0.5 Art, Music, Theatre, Dance 0.5 Mathematics 0.7 Languages Other Than English 0.7 English 0.7 Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) 0.8 Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) 1.0 ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) 1.0 Elementary & Early Childhood 1.4 2.0

Reading & Literacy

4.1 Reading & Literacy

3.2

Certificate supply based on mailing address on certification records. Shortages, balances and surpluses assume that only new teachers with a mailing address in New York City were available to fill vacancies for new teachers in New York City and that all new teachers were available to fill any vacancy for a new teacher in New York City.

21

Rest of State including Big Four Cities In 2005-2006, there were no subject areas with fewer than 1.5 certificates issued to new teachers with mailing addresses in the Rest of State (including the Big Four Cities) for each vacancy for a new teacher in the Rest of State. If new teachers had only come from the College Recommended pathway to certification, the following four subject areas would have had shortages: Career and Technical Education, Languages other than English, Middle/Secondary Special Education and Library and School Media Specialist. Shortages in the Rest of State were likely to have been worse than estimated here because the Rest of State is a large geographic area and teachers would not have been likely to have moved to wherever there were vacancies. (Figure 20) Figure 20
REST OF STATE (INCLUDING BIG 4 CITIES) Shortage and Surplus Subjects in 2005-2006 Number of certificates issued to new teachers per vacancy for a new teacher
SHORTAGE CATEGORY 0 to 1.0 = SEVERE SHORTAGE 1.1 to 1.5 = SHORTAGE Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) Library & School Media Specialist Languages Other Than English Career & Technical Education Mathematics Art, Music, Theatre, Dance 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.4 4.1 4.1 4.3 7.9 8.0 9.8 Certificates from All Pathways College Recommended Certificates Only Career & Technical Education 0.8 Languages Other Than English 0.9 Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) 1.2 Library & School Media Specialist 1.2 Mathematics 1.7 Art, Music, Theatre, Dance 1.7 Sciences 1.8 English 2.1 Physical Education 2.2 ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) 2.4 Social Studies 2.8 Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) 3.1 Elementary & Early Childhood 5.5 Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) 6.5 Reading & Literacy 7.4

1.6 to 3.0 = POSSIBLE BALANCE

Sciences English Physical Education Social Studies MORE THAN 3.0 = POSSIBLE ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) SURPLUS Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) Elementary & Early Childhood Reading & Literacy

Certificate supply based on mailing address on certification records. Shortages, balances and surpluses assume that only new teachers with a mailing address in the Rest of State were available to fill vacancies for new teachers in the Rest of State and that all new teachers were available to fill any vacancy for a new teacher in the Rest of State, regardless of location.

Regions The potential supply of new teachers was “placed” in each of 13 regions based on mailing addresses in certification records and compared to vacancies for new teachers in the same regions. These comparisons assume no mobility of new teachers from one region to another. Most regions had some shortages and some possible surpluses of new teachers. There would have been more shortages and fewer possible surpluses if the College Recommended pathway to certification had been the only one. (Figures 21 through 24)

22

Figure 21

SHORTAGES: ALL PATHWAYS TO CERTIFICATION Regions and Subject Areas with 1.5 or Fewer Certificates from All Pathways Issued to New Teachers for Each Vacancy for a New Teacher in 2005-2006
S o u th e r n T ie r - E a s t L a k e C h a m p la in L a k e G e o rg e G e n e s e e -F in g e r Lakes N e w Y o r k S ta te 0.7 1.3 N a s s a u -S u ffo lk S o u th e r n T ie r C e n tr a l S o u th e r n T ie r W est Upper M ohaw k V a lle y 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.3 B la c k R iv e r -S t L a w re n c e Upper Hudson N e w Y o r k C ity

M id -H u d s o n

Subject Areas Art, Music, Theatre, Dance Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) Career & Technical Education Elementary & Early Childhood English ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) Languages Other Than English Library & School Media Specialist Mathematics Other Teaching Physical Education Reading & Literacy Sciences Social Studies ------------------------------Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) ------------------------------Grand Total - All Subjects

1.0 0.2 1.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.7

1.2 1.5 0.7 0.3 1.1

1.4 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.9

0.9 0.4 0.7

1.4 0.5 0.7

0.8 1.1 0.5 0.4

1.1

1.3

0.9 1.4

1.1

0.8

1.2

1.0

Certificates assigned to regions based on mailing addresses in certification records.

Appendix A describes regions. Appendix B explains Subject Areas.

In 2005-2006, shortages were not widespread, but 11 of 13 regions had shortages in at least one subject area. 23

W e s te r n

C e n tr a l

Figure 22

POTENTIAL SHORTAGES: COLLEGE RECOMMENDED PATHWAY Regions and Subject Areas with 1.5 or Fewer Certificates from the College Recommended Pathway Issued to New Teachers for Each Vacancy for a New Teacher in 2005-2006
S o u th e rn T ie r - E a s t L a k e C h a m p la in L a k e G e o rg e G e n e s e e -F in g e r Lakes N e w Y o rk S ta te 1.2 1.2 0.6 1.2 1.3 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.2 1.4 1.1 1.4 0.9 N a s s a u -S u ffo lk S o u th e rn T ie r C e n tra l S o u th e rn T ie r W est Upper M ohaw k V a lle y 0.6 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.4 1.4 1.4 0.2 1.5 0.3 1.5 0.9 0.6 1.3 0.2 0.8 1.4 0.3 0.4 1.4 0.7 Upper Hudson B la c k R iv e r-S t L a w re n c e N e w Y o rk C ity

M id -H u d s o n

Subject Areas Art, Music, Theatre, Dance Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) Career & Technical Education Elementary & Early Childhood English ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) Languages Other Than English Library & School Media Specialist Mathematics Other Teaching Physical Education Reading & Literacy Sciences Social Studies ------------------------------Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) ------------------------------Grand Total - All Subjects

0.3

0.8

0.2 1.2

0.2

0.3

0.6

0.9 1.1 0.1

0.7 0.5 1.2 0.2 1.5

1.1 0.7 0.5

0.5 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.5

0.9 1.5 0.2

1.0 1.5 0.6

0.5 1.0 0.1 1.4 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5

0.9 0.5 0.9 0.2 1.1 0.1 0.5

0.8 0.6

1.4 0.2

1.4 1.5

1.4

0.1

0.9

0.3

1.1

0.8 1.0

1.3

1.5 0.3

-

0.5

Certificates assigned to regions based on mailing addresses in certification records.

Appendix A describes regions. Appendix B explains Subject Areas.

More shortages would have occurred in 2005-2006 if the College Recommended pathway to certification had been the only pathway. Teacher preparation institutions will need to prepare more new teachers if the Individual Evaluation pathway is terminated in 2009 as planned and nothing else changes. 24

W e s te rn 0.5 0.5

C e n tra l

Figure 23

POSSIBLE SURPLUSES: ALL PATHWAYS TO CERTIFICATION Regions and Subject Areas with More Than 3.0 Certificates from All Pathways Issued to New Teachers for Each Vacancy for a New Teacher in 2005-2006
B la c k R iv e r -S t L a w re n c e G eneseeF in g e r L a k e s Lake C h a m p la in L a k e G e o rg e N e w Y o r k S ta te 4.0 8.3 4.3 N a s s a u -S u ffo lk S o u th e r n T ie r C e n tr a l S o u th e r n T ie r East S o u th e r n T ie r W est Upper M ohaw k V a lle y 4.7 6.3 5.2 Upper Hudson N e w Y o r k C ity M id -H u d s o n

Subject Areas Art, Music, Theatre, Dance Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) Career & Technical Education Elementary & Early Childhood English ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) Languages Other Than English Library & School Media Specialist Mathematics Other Teaching Physical Education Reading & Literacy Sciences Social Studies ------------------------------Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) ------------------------------Grand Total - All Subjects

5.6

C e n tr a l

5.8

3.1 15.5 6.1 12.4 3.5 3.4 3.5 5.2 5.4 6.7 4.3 3.1 5.7 9.5 3.2 3.4 8.4 4.4 4.2 3.4 16.3 3.4 4.1 15.4 4.5 72.4 3.9 11.4 4.0 6.3 5.4 3.1 5.2 3.2 14.5

6.6 5.5

7.4 5.9

5.9 4.6

7.3 3.7

9.5 3.2 4.8 3.6

4.2 8.6 10.1 3.2 7.8 4.6

7.0 3.4 6.3

5.0 3.7 3.4 3.1

13.1 3.7 6.1

4.1

8.9 3.5 3.2

3.9 8.9 3.8

4.0

5.1

3.8

3.3

4.6

5.7

3.2

3.1

3.8

Certificates assigned to regions based on mailing addresses in certification records.

Appendix A describes regions. Appendix B explains Subject Areas.

In 2005-2006, with all pathways to certification, many subject areas and regions had possible surpluses of new teachers, defined as 3.0 or more certificates issued to a new teacher with a mailing address in the region for each vacancy for the new teacher in the same region. 25

W e s te r n 3.7 3.4 7.9 5.8 3.1 3.4 3.3 4.4 3.9 4.9 8.0 6.1 5.4

Figure 24

POSSIBLE SURPLUSES: COLLEGE RECOMMENDED PATHWAY ONLY Regions and Subject Areas with More Than 3.0 Certificates from the College Recommended Pathway Issued to New Teachers for Each Vacancy for a New Teacher in 2005-2006
L a k e C h a m p la in L a k e G e o rg e G e n e s e e -F in g e r Lakes N e w Y o r k S ta te 6.3 5.9 5.4 4.0 4.2 3.6 N a s s a u -S u ffo lk S o u th e r n T ie r C e n tr a l S o u th e r n T ie r East S o u th e r n T ie r W est Upper M ohaw k V a lle y 3.4 5.2 B la c k R iv e r -S t L a w re n c e Upper Hudson N e w Y o r k C ity M id -H u d s o n

Subject Areas Art, Music, Theatre, Dance Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) Career & Technical Education Elementary & Early Childhood English ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) Languages Other Than English Library & School Media Specialist Mathematics Other Teaching Physical Education Reading & Literacy Sciences Social Studies ------------------------------Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) ------------------------------Grand Total - All Subjects

3.4

3.6 10.1 4.4 8.5 3.6 3.6 6.7 3.2 3.2 3.4 6.0 4.2

4.8 4.6

5.5

4.7 3.7

4.2

6.4

6.6 7.3 6.3 3.2

5.2

4.0 8.2

3.1

10.8

11.4

3.2

3.1 52.9

6.8 7.2

8.7

5.2

7.6 3.4

5.1

12.9

1.0

1.3

Certificates assigned to regions based on mailing addresses in certification records.

Appendix A describes regions. Appendix B explains Subject Areas.

There would have been fewer possible surpluses in 2005-2006 if the College Recommended pathway had been the only pathway and nothing else had changed.

26

W e s te r n 3.0

C e n tr a l

All Indicators Summary of shortages in subject areas Workforce indicators and supply and demand indicators do not necessarily yield the same estimates of shortages because they are completely different measures. However, there were some subject areas in 2005-2006 that had shortages in both New York City and in the Rest of State based on both types of indicators. These subject areas were the Arts, Career and Technical Education, Languages Other Than English, Library and School Media Specialist, Mathematics and Middle/Secondary Special Education. (Figure 25) Districts and schools in each region may have more recent and more detailed data about their teacher shortages. They can use their own data in the context of this report in order to identify and address shortages in partnerships with colleges and universities. Figure 25

Summary of Teacher Shortage Areas in 2005-2006
Workforce Shortages Subject Areas Rest of State New York City Big 4 Cities excluding Big 4 Art, Music, Theatre, Dance Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) Career & Technical Education Elementary & Early Childhood English ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) Languages Other Than English Library & School Media Specialist Mathematics Other Teaching Physical Education Reading & Literacy Sciences Social Studies Sp.Ed. All Grades (Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. All Grades (Not Bilingual)
x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 1 of 4 x 3 of 4 x 1 of 4 x x x x x 2 of 4 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 2 of 4 x x x x x x

Supply & Demand Shortages: All Pathways to Certification

New York City
x

Rest of State including Big 4
x

Workforce shortages were defined as (1) at least 5 percent of FTE teaching assignments held by teachers without appropriate certification or (2) at least 5 percent of core classes not taught by highly qualified teachers. Supply and demand shortages were defined as 1.5 or fewer certificates issued to new teachers per vacancy for a new teacher.

27

Part 4 Future Demand for New Teachers The current level of demand for new teachers is likely to persist for years as “baby boomers” age out of the public school teaching workforce. The age distribution of public school teachers changed between 2000-2001 and 2005-2006 as “baby boomers” began to reach retirement age and younger teachers replaced them. However, in 2005-2006, there were still nearly 38,000 teachers over age 54 and more than 55,000 teachers between the ages of 45 and 54. (Figure 26)

Figure 26
New York State Age Distribution of FTE Public School Teachers
80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 Age under 35 yrs Age 35-44 yrs Age 45-54 yrs Age over 54 yrs

2000-01

2001-02

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

Between 2000-2001 and 2005-2006, the percent of teachers age 55 or older rose in every subject area in New York State. (Figure 27) Demand for new teachers will persist in every subject area and region for more than five years as teachers who were age 45-54 years in 2005-2006 reach retirement age. (Figure 28) Every region will have demand for new teachers due to retirements. (Figures 29 and 30) 28

Figure 27
0% Art, Music, Theatre, Dance Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) Career & Technical Education Elementary & Early Childhood English ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) Languages Other Than English Library & School Media Specialist Mathematics Other Teaching Physical Education Reading & Literacy Sciences Social Studies Sp.Ed. All Grades (Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. All Grades (Not Bilingual) Grand Total

New York State Percent of FTE Teaching Assignments Held by Teachers Age 55 or Older
10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

2000-2001

2005-2006

Figure 28
0% Art, Music, Theatre, Dance Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) Career & Technical Education Elementary & Early Childhood English ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) Languages Other Than English Library & School Media Specialist Mathematics Other Teaching Physical Education Reading & Literacy Sciences Social Studies Sp.Ed. All Grades (Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. All Grades (Not Bilingual) Grand Total

New York State Percent of FTE Teaching Assignments Held by Teachers Age 45 or Older
10%
31% 29% 35% 22% 19% 26% 25% 34% 22% 27% 26% 30% 26% 18% 32% 31% 31% 37% 26% 17% 15% 17% 17% 16% 19% 15% 12% 25% 17% 20% 16% 23% 19% 35% 16%

20%

30%

40%
16% 19% 23%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Percent Age 45-54

Percent Age 55+

29

Figure 29

FUTURE DEMAND: Percent of FTE Teaching Assignments Held by Teachers Age 55 or Older in 2005-2006
N e w Y o rk S ta te 16% 19% 23% 16% 16% 23% 19% 35% 17% 20% 12% 25% 15% 16% 19% 15% 17% 17% 17% N a s s a u - S u f f o lk S o u t h e r n T ie r C e n tra l S o u t h e r n T ie r East S o u t h e r n T ie r W est Upper M ohaw k V a lle y 15% 0% 18% 21% 16% 24% 24% 29% 16% 20% 13% 24% 15% 19% 13% 14% 16% 18% B la c k R iv e r - S t L a w re n c e Upper Hudson N e w Y o r k C it y G eneseeF in g e r L a k e s Lake C h a m p la in L a k e G e o rg e M id - H u d s o n

Subject Areas Art, Music, Theatre, Dance Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) Career & Technical Education Elementary & Early Childhood English ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) Languages Other Than English Library & School Media Specialist Mathematics Other Teaching Physical Education Reading & Literacy Sciences Social Studies Sp.Ed. All Grades (Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. All Grades (Not Bilingual) Grand Total - All Subjects
Shaded column headings denote regions with a Big Five City.

14% 16% 18% 16% 29% 21% 33% 11% 14% 12% 17% 9% 16% 10% 10% 11% 15%

18% 0% 22% 20% 19% 27% 16% 33% 15% 16% 11% 23% 12% 19% 17% 12% 13% 11% 17%

14% 18% 19% 16% 15% 24% 14% 32% 13% 18% 10% 20% 13% 13% 15% 11% 14% 14% 15%

17% 22% 17% 18% 0% 14% 37% 15% 19% 7% 16% 12% 14% 9% 14% 17% 16%

17% 20% 27% 18% 18% 22% 22% 42% 18% 20% 14% 30% 18% 16% 0% 15% 19% 19% 19%

15% 10% 22% 15% 14% 22% 16% 31% 17% 19% 11% 23% 13% 13% 0% 13% 13% 14% 16%

19% 20% 28% 15% 15% 24% 22% 40% 18% 23% 15% 32% 17% 18% 21% 19% 25% 27% 19%

13% 22% 17% 21% 0% 25% 35% 16% 20% 9% 31% 11% 10% 11% 11% 11% 16%

16% 22% 19% 18% 30% 19% 34% 15% 19% 9% 23% 14% 17% 10% 15% 8% 17%

13% 16% 19% 21% 13% 16% 30% 17% 20% 14% 27% 13% 17% 8% 13% 5% 17%

16% 20% 18% 16% 18% 16% 31% 17% 17% 11% 21% 13% 16% 10% 12% 15% 16%

Appendix A describes regions. Appendix B explains Subject Areas.

30

W e s te rn 12% 16% 20% 17% 15% 21% 16% 36% 14% 15% 10% 20% 14% 14% 0% 10% 12% 14% 15%

C e n tra l

Figure 30

FUTURE DEMAND: Number of FTE Teaching Assignments Held by Teachers Age 55 or Older in 2005-2006
G eneseeF in g e r L a k e s Lake C h a m p la in L a k e G e o rg e N e w Y o rk S ta te 2,347 312 2,169 9,810 2,323 938 1,320 1,110 2,604 2,117 1,168 1,625 2,140 2,095 65 2,090 2,884 753 37,875 N a s s a u - S u f f o lk S o u t h e r n T ie r C e n tra l S o u t h e r n T ie r East S o u t h e r n T ie r W est Upper M ohaw k V a lle y 45 43 221 40 9 30 21 43 52 24 24 39 44 27 39 13 715 B la c k R iv e r - S t L a w re n c e Upper Hudson N e w Y o r k C it y M id - H u d s o n

Subject Areas Art, Music, Theatre, Dance Bilingual Education (Not Sp.Ed.) Career & Technical Education Elementary & Early Childhood English ESOL (Not Sp.Ed.) Languages Other Than English Library & School Media Specialist Mathematics Other Teaching Physical Education Reading & Literacy Sciences Social Studies Sp.Ed. All Grades (Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Elem (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Mid/Sec (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. All Grades (Not Bilingual) Grand Total - All Subjects
Shaded column headings denote regions with a Big Five City.

40 48 204 40 3 30 24 31 28 24 29 24 41 22 32 11 631

143 135 584 134 20 60 65 105 83 60 71 85 121 1 79 98 36 1,885

166 12 178 663 153 44 77 88 132 164 81 94 135 128 2 106 203 66 2,495

44 61 154 45 20 22 40 47 13 18 30 32 22 46 22 620

357 22 333 1,329 344 118 253 196 358 235 192 275 358 298 278 478 118 5,545

442 11 373 1,533 331 155 258 195 429 287 196 304 344 284 314 393 138 5,990

677 259 523 3,225 789 537 338 265 1,017 899 364 465 754 762 62 995 1,175 244 13,350

28 43 131 35 23 18 28 26 14 33 18 17 18 27 7 470

89 84 347 87 13 47 43 70 69 31 59 66 73 42 85 10 1,215

39 41 205 56 3 22 20 51 43 31 45 36 44 19 41 4 705

155 147 606 133 14 83 74 162 97 74 122 120 133 81 125 39 2,165

Appendix A describes regions. Appendix B explains Subject Areas.

31

W e s te rn 123 8 159 608 136 21 80 79 139 87 64 86 129 120 86 144 43 2,115

C e n tra l

In addition to the aging of the teaching workforce, policies can increase demand for new teachers. School enrollments. School enrolments will increase, even with no change in the school-aged population, if New York State adopts policies to support universal Pre-Kindergarten, full-day Kindergarten and longer high school programs for students who need more time to meet State Learning Standards, such as recently arrived immigrant students who are English Language Learners. If students become eligible to attend school for more years, total enrollment will increase and more teachers will be needed. Fewer students per teacher. Schools’ efforts to meet each individual student’s learning needs – through class size reduction, Academic Intervention Services (AIS), Supplementary Educational Services (SES), Response to Intervention (RTI) and other diagnostic, tutoring and student support services – tend to reduce the ratio of students per teacher. When there are fewer students-per-teacher, total demand for teachers goes up, even with no change in the school-aged population. There are some forces that could reduce demand for public school teachers. For example, resource constraints could limit the capacity of public schools to employ more teachers. Similarly, if public school enrollment declined because of population loss or alternate schooling models – such as home schooling, private schooling or online schooling – total demand for teachers would decline. Finally, if the Regents requirement for all districts to provide mentoring for every first year teacher reduced attrition among new teachers, demand for new teachers would decline, while the teaching workforce would remain the same size but have a higher percentage of experienced teachers. On balance, the forces that would sustain or increase current demand for new teachers – driven by the age distribution of the public school workforce and by federal and State policy initiatives – appear to be stronger than the forces that would reduce demand for new teachers. If this is indeed the case, demand for new teachers will persist or rise.

32

Part 5 Meeting the Need With partners in the P-16 education community and beyond, the Board of Regents and the State Education Department are implementing three aligned plans to assure that there are enough qualified teachers for all public schools. The plans were developed in consultation with schools, districts and the higher education community and are available online. • July 2005 Statewide Plan for Higher Education http://www.highered.nysed.gov/Quality_Assurance/statewideplan/page1.htm September 2006 New York State’s Plan to Enhance Teacher Quality (approved by the U.S. Department of Education) http://www.ed.gov/programs/teacherqual/hqtplans/index.html#ny November 2006 P-16 Education: A Plan for Action http://usny.nysed.gov/summit/p-16ed.htm#aims

Each plan has both short-term and long-term approaches to meeting the need for certified and highly qualified teachers. Short-term approaches include, but are not limited to: • a retirement bill to bring retired teachers back to the classroom in shortage areas for a limited time; financial incentives for teacher recruitment and retention in shortage areas, through Teachers of Tomorrow, the Teacher Opportunity Corps, federal loan forgiveness and other funding sources; increased opportunities for alternative teacher preparation in shortage areas with transitional, internship and supplementary certificates and with innovative teacher recruitment, such as the IBM initiative with industry partners; technical assistance for teacher recruitment and retention in high-need, lowperforming districts; and a review of teacher certification requirements to find opportunities to add flexibility without compromising quality and to increase the supply of teachers in shortage areas.

Long-term approaches include, but are not limited to: • reports, interactive data tools and technical assistance to support teacher workforce planning by regional partnerships of P-12 districts and higher education; external research on the effectiveness of teacher preparation and teacher certification as part of the ongoing evaluation of the Regents 1998 policy, and use of research findings to inform policy change; 33

new teacher preparation programs and teacher certification pathways for teaching assistants and paraprofessionals in high-need communities with teacher shortages; and Planting the Seed, a multimedia approach to recruit teachers and licensed professionals from high-need, underserved communities.

The Governor’s 2007-2008 Executive Budget and associated budget bills propose additional initiatives that would extend the three plans being implemented by the Board of Regents and the State Education Department. The Governor’s proposals include: as part of a multi-year plan to increase school aid, a one-year increase in school aid of over $1.41 billion for school year 2007-2008 that would be available for strategies with demonstrable records of success and that would be linked to accountability for improved student achievement in Contracts for Excellence; the continuation of $68 million of State support for programs to attract, retain and support teachers, with a requirement that the State Education Department assist school districts in developing incentives for highly trained teachers to work with low performing schools; a 2007-2008 review of the means of expanding the availability of alternative teacher preparation programs in the future, while maintaining teacher quality, and the development of programs to assist in the expansion of alternative teacher preparation programs, including the development of experimental teacher preparation programs; and math and science initiatives to increase the supply of qualified math and science teachers in schools across the State and recognize and reward talented middle school students in math and science. The Governor’s proposals also call for the Board of Regents and State Education Department to examine the feasibility and costs of measuring and reporting on the effectiveness of teacher education programs and public school teachers.

34

Appendix A Counties within Regions

Black River-St. Lawrence Franklin Jefferson Lewis St. Lawrence Central Cayuga Cortland Madison Onondaga Oswego Genesee-Finger Lakes Genesee Livingston Monroe Ontario Orleans Seneca Wayne Yates Lake Champlain-Lake George Clinton Essex Hamilton Warren Washington

Mid-Hudson Dutchess Orange Putnam Rockland Sullivan Ulster Westchester Nassau-Suffolk Nassau Suffolk New York City New York Bronx Kings Queens Richmond Southern Tier-East Broome Chenango Delaware Otsego Tioga Tompkins

Southern Tier-Central Chemung Schuyler Steuben Southern Tier-West Allegany Cattaraugus Chautauqua Upper Hudson Albany Columbia Fulton Greene Montgomery Rensselaer Saratoga Schenectady Schoharie Upper Mohawk Valley Herkimer Oneida Western Erie Niagara Wyoming

35

Appendix B Subject Areas
Subject Areas for Teacher Supply and Demand Subject Areas 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Art, Music, Theatre, Dance Bilingual Eduation All Grades (Not Sp.Ed.) Career & Technical Education Elementary & Early Childhood Education English ESOL All Grades (Not Sp.Ed.) Languages Other Than English Library & School Media Specialist Mathematics Other Teaching Physical Education Reading & Literacy Sciences Social Studies Sp.Ed. All Grades (Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Elementary (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. Midle/Secondary (Not Bilingual) Sp.Ed. All Grades (Not Bilingual) Worforce Indicators x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Supply & Demand Indicators x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

Teaching assignments and certificate titles were classified into 18 subject areas. Some subject areas are composed of separate subjects that may have different shortage profiles than the subject area as a whole. For example, Table C-2 in this report shows different shortage profiles for the separate science subjects of biology, chemistry, earth science, physics and other sciences. Subject areas that contain multiple subjects are the Arts, Career and Technical Education, Elementary and Early Childhood Education, Languages Other Than English, Other Teaching, Sciences and each of the Special Education subject areas. “Other teaching” includes assignments with multiple subjects (e.g., humanities), safety education, health education, alternative education in unspecified subjects, gifted and talented education and other assignments with unspecified subjects. Data were not sufficiently aligned for supply and demand indicators in two of the four subject areas in special education.

36

Categories for Special Education Subject Areas Table B-1 shows the four special education subject areas and their codes for this analysis. Table B-2 shows how teaching and non-teaching assignments in special education in the 2005-2006 BEDS Personnel Master File were classified into the four special education subject areas for estimating shortages and vacancies for new teachers. Table B-3 shows how certificates issued to new teachers in special education were classified into three of the four special education subject areas with codes 16 through 18. The fourth subject area, code 19, is not applicable because special education certificates and bilingual extensions are two separate credentials that are coded separately. Table B-3 includes certificate titles that existed for many years and the new titles that took effect in 2004. The older titles would not have been issued in 2005-2006 but are shown for completeness. Subject area 16 includes special education certificates for specific disabilities that were not adjusted for developmental levels in February 2004. These certificates were not included in the February 2007 report to the Board of Regents on shortages of special education teachers. Subject areas with codes 17 and 18 were included in the February 2007 Regents Item on shortages of special education teachers because they are the subject areas with certificates at four specific developmental levels, with code 17 for Birth-Grade 2 and Grade 1-6 and with code 18 for Grade 5-9 and Grade 7-12. Data on the supply of teachers for subject areas 17 and 18 in the February Regents Item and this report will not exactly match because the Regents Item defined teacher supply as all first level certificates issued (excluding permanent and professional certificates) and this report defines supply as all certificates of any level issued to new teachers who were not in the public school workforce in the prior five years. For 2005-2006, the Regents Item reported that 5,298 first-level certificates were issued in subject areas 17 and 18; in contrast, this report shows that 4,965 certificates were issued in subject areas 17 and 18 to new teachers.
Table B-1 Special Education Subject Areas and Their Codes Subject Area Code 16 17 18 19 Subject Area Name Special Education All Grades (Not Bilingual) Special Education Elementary (Not Bilingual) Special Education Middle/Secondary (Not Bilingual) Special Education All Grades (Bilingual)

37

Table B-2 2005-2006 Special Education Teaching and Non-Teaching Assignments by Subject Area Code Subject Area Assignment Code Assignment Name Code 16 1502 DIRECTOR/COORDINATOR SPEC EDUC 16 1504 ASST DIR/COORD OF SPECIAL ED 16 1505 SPECIAL ED-INSERVICE TRAINER 16 1506 SPECIAL EDUCATION SUPERVISOR 16 1507 SPEC ED-CHAIR-COMM ON SPEC ED 16 1508 SPEC ED-DEPT HEAD/CHAIRPERSON 16 1509 SPEC ED-ASST PRINCIPAL-NYC 16 1510 CHAIR/COMM-PRESCHOOL SPEC EDUC 16 1512 SCHOOL BASED SUPPORT TEAM-NYC 16 1514 EDUCATION EVALUATOR 16 1516 OTHER-NOT SPECIAL ED TEACHER 16 1599 SPECIAL EDUCATION ADMINISTRATOR 16 7727 SPEC ED HOME INSTRUCTION 16 7751 TCHR OF DEAF/HARD OF HEARING 16 7753 TCH OF BLIND/PARTIALLY SIGHTED 16 7755 TCH OF SPEECH/HEARING IMPAIRED 16 7799 SPECIAL EDUCATION 16 8616 ESL SPECIAL EDUCATION 17 7712 PRESCHOOL SPECIAL ED ITINERANT 17 7713 SPECIAL CLASS - PRESCHOOL 17 7715 RESOURCE ROOM- ELEMENTARY 17 7731 CONSULTANT TEACHER - ELEM 17 7761 SPECIAL CLASS - ELEM 15:1 17 7763 SPECIAL CLASS - ELEM 12:1 + 1 17 7765 SPECIAL CLASS - ELEM 8:1 + 1 17 7767 SPECIAL CLASS - ELEM 6:1 + 1 17 7769 SPECIAL CLASS -ELEM 12:1 + 3:1 18 7717 RESOURCE ROOM - MIDDLE/JR. HS 18 7719 RESOURCE ROOM - SENIOR HIGH 18 7733 CONSULTANT TEACHER-MIDDLE/JHS 18 7735 CONSULTANT TEACHER - HS 18 7771 SPECIAL CLASS(MIDDLE/JHS) 15:1 18 7773 SPEC CLASS-MIDDLE/JHS 12:1 + 1 18 7775 SPEC CLASS-MIDDLE/JHS 8:1 + 1 18 7777 SPEC CLASS (MIDDLE/JHS)6:1 + 1 18 7779 SPEC CLASS-MIDDLE/JHS 12:1+3:1 18 7781 SPECIAL CLASS (SR HS) 15:1 18 7783 SPECIAL CLASS (SR HS) 12:1+1 18 7785 SPECIAL CLASS (SR HS) 8:1+1 18 7787 SPECIAL CLASS (SR HS) 6:1+1 18 7789 SPECIAL CLASS (SR HS) 12:1+3:1 18 7914 SPECIAL EDUCATION WORK STUDY 19 5616 CHINESE BILINGUAL SPECIAL ED 19 5622 SPANISH BILINGUAL SPECIAL ED 19 5628 HAITIAN-CREOLE BILN SPECIAL ED 19 5634 KOREAN BILING SPEC ED 19 5640 VIETNAMESE BILING SPEC ED 19 5652 RUSSIAN BILINGUAL SPECIAL ED 19 5697 OTHER BILINGUAL SPECIAL ED

38

Table B-3 Special Education Certificate Titles from All Years by Subject Area Code Subject Area Code 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 Certificate Title Code 9100 9017 9021 9171 9018 9070 9060 9052 9040 9030 9990 9080 9090 9160 9130 9120 9112 9150 9140 9010 9020 6026 1134 1135 1132 9050 9041 102 1196 9012 9011 9014 9013 9045 9022 9023 9024 9025 9026 9027 9028 9029 9015 9054 9055 9056 Certificate Title PHYS HAND-ORTHO EXT DEAF & HARD OF HEARIN SPCH & LANG DISABLED SEVERE/MULT DIS ANNO BLIND & VIS IMPAIRED LEARNING DISABILITIES EMOTIONALLY DISTURBED PERCEPTIONALLY HANDIC BLIND DEAF SOCE- SPEC ED MULTIPLY HANDICAPPED MENTALLY RETARDED EXT SP CLASSES ORTHO/SIM. DEAF CHILD/YTH EXT BLIND CHILD/YTH EXT SIGHT SAVING CLASS DEAF AND HEAR IMPRD BLIND AND PART SIGHTE SPECIAL EDUCATION SPEECH & HEARING HAND DEPT HEAD SPEECH HRG COORD SPEC HELP CTR COORD TCHR SP ED COORD SPECIAL CLASS BLIND & VIS. HAND SUPERVISOR OF BLIND COORD CLIN SERV SP ED DIR SPECIAL EDUCATION ADM ASST SPECIAL ED SUPV SPECIAL EDUCATION SWD 1-6 SWD B-2 SWD ASL 7-12 SWD BIOLOGY 5-9 SWD CANTONESE 5-9 SWD CHEMISTRY 5-9 SWD CHINESE 5-9 SWD ENG LANG ARTS 5-9 SWD EARTH SCIENCE 5-9 SWD FRENCH 5-9 SWD GERMAN 5-9 SWD MID CHILDHOOD 5-9 SWD FRENCH 7-12 SWD GERMAN 7-12 SWD GREEK 7-12

39

18 9057 SWD HEBREW 7-12 18 9053 SWD EARTH SCIENCE 7-12 18 9059 SWD JAPANESE 7-12 18 9019 SWD ASL 5-9 18 9061 SWD LATIN 7-12 18 9062 SWD MANDARIN 7-12 18 9063 SWD MATHEMATICS 7-12 18 9064 SWD PHYSICS 7-12 18 9065 SWD RUSSIAN 7-12 18 9066 SWD SOC STUDIES 7-12 18 9067 SWD SPANISH 7-12 18 9068 SWD URDU 7-12 18 9058 SWD ITALIAN 7-12 18 9048 SWD CHEMISTRY 7-12 18 9044 SWD URDU 5-9 18 9043 SWD SPANISH 5-9 18 9047 SWD CANTONESE 7-12 18 9042 SWD SOC STUDIES 5-9 18 9031 SWD GREEK 5-9 18 9033 SWD ITALIAN 5-9 18 9046 SWD BIOLOGY 7-12 18 9034 SWD JAPANESE 5-9 18 9035 SWD LATIN 5-9 18 9036 SWD MANDARIN 5-9 18 9037 SWD MATHEMATICS 5-9 18 9049 SWD CHINESE 7-12 18 9039 SWD RUSSIAN 5-9 18 9038 SWD PHYSICS 5-9 18 9032 SWD HEBREW 5-9 18 9051 SWD ENG LANG ARTS 7-12 Subject Area Code 19 No certificate title could be associated with Subject Area Code 19, Special Education All Grades (Bilingual), because the bilingual credential is an extension that must be added to a base special education certificate and is not identified as a special education bilingual extension.

40

Appendix C Percent of Core Classes Not Taught by Highly Qualified Teachers in 2005-2006 The three tables in this appendix show the percent of core classes not taught by highly qualified teachers in 2005-2006 for New York State, New York City, each of the Big Four Cities and each of New York State’s standard Need / Resource Capacity Categories of districts. The tables were originally issued in a January 2007 Regents Item on meeting federal teacher quality goals and in a January 2007 press release available at http://www.emsc.nysed.gov/irts/press-release/20070108/home.htm. The tables are included in this appendix because they contain a workforce indicator of teacher supply and demand that could have significant consequences for school districts by the end of school year 2006-2007, when the U.S. Department of Education requires all core classes to be taught by highly qualified teachers. The tables also provide more detailed information about core classes in the sciences and special education than other data presented in this report. Table C-1 All Subject Areas in 2005-2006: Percent of Core Classes Not Taught by Highly Qualified Teachers Table C-2 Science Subjects in 2005-2006: Percent of Core Classes Not Taught by Highly Qualified Teachers Table C-3 “Special Classes” for Students with Disabilities in 2005-2006: Percent of Core Classes Not Taught by Highly Qualified Teachers

41

Table C-1 All Subject Areas in 2005-2006: Percent of Core Classes Not Taught by Highly Qualified Teachers
New York State – All Public Schools 3.1 7.8 4.9 8.7 5.7 4.7 8.0 Need/Resource Capacity (N/RC) Categories High N/RC Districts New York City 6.4 30.8 13.3 17.4 15.2 18.2 20.3 Buffalo Rochester Syracuse Yonkers Urban/ Suburban Districts 1.5 2.2 2.4 7.0 2.3 1.5 3.0 Rural Districts 0.8 2.0 1.7 9.4 2.3 2.9 3.4 Average N/RC Districts Low N/RC Districts Charters, BOCES & State Schools 17.3 27.0 9.0 44.7 12.1 10.2 17.9

Core Subject Areas

Elementary (one or more subjects) Arts English Languages Other Than English Mathematics Reading Science Social Studies (including civics and government, economics, geography & history) All other core assignments (multiple subjects, unspecified subjects, etc.)

0.8 0.7 0.8 12.9 1.4 1.8 9.8

6.0 9.4 7.1 21.5 17.2 44.9 16.0

7.4 9.1 8.8 48.3 7.3 16.1 9.7

0.2 1.4 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 1.7

0.9 1.7 1.4 5.1 1.5 1.7 1.9

0.8 1.7 1.2 4.5 0.9 0.6 1.7

3.9

9.9

1.0

8.0

3.3

0.0

1.7

1.7

1.2

1.3

13.8

9.0

20.1

5.9

16.2

13.4

0.5

3.7

3.5

2.5

2.6

7.1 13.3

5.5 13.0 2.8 10.6 10.6 0.6 2.4 2.2 1.6 1.5 Total NOTE Core classes in “other core subjects” are in multiple core subjects or unspecified subjects in Career and Technical Education (CTE), special education or bilingual education.

42

Table C-2 Science Subjects in 2005-2006: Percent of Core Classes Not Taught by Highly Qualified Teachers
New York State – All Public Schools Biology Chemistry Earth Science Physics Other Sciences Total 6.2 7.0 15.6 10.2 6.8 8.0 Need/Resource Capacity Categories High N/RC Districts New York City 14.4 20.4 51.8 28.6 16.5 20.3 Buffalo Rochester Syracuse Yonkers Urban/ Suburban Districts 2.6 2.7 5.0 2.2 2.7 3.0 Rural Districts 2.5 2.9 5.9 11.8 2.2 3.4 Average N/RC Districts Low N/RC Districts Charters, BOCES and State Schools 9.4 17.6 17.0 11.1 22.6 17.9

Science Subject

5.5 32.1 22.4 6.1 2.1 9.8

8.5 7.3 21.7 11.5 21.3 16.0

4.3 14.8 13.3 28.6 10.1 9.7

3.3 0.0 6.5 0.0 0.0 1.7

1.7 2.3 3.8 4.3 1.0 1.9

1.2 1.4 2.5 3.6 1.4 1.7

NOTE “Other sciences” includes general science, life science, and physical science as well as science electives such as astronomy.

43

Table C-3 “Special Classes” for Students with Disabilities in 2005-2006: Percent of Core Classes Not Taught by Highly Qualified Teachers
Class Level for Special Classes for Students with Disabilities in Core Subjects Need/Resource Capacity (N/RC)Categories High N/RC Districts New York City 14.0 24.6 2.9 19.0 Buffalo Rochester Syracuse Yonkers Urban/ Suburban Districts 3.3 2.5 1.3 2.4 Rural Districts 3.5 2.7 0.2 2.4 Average N/RC Districts 1.5 2.5 0.8 1.9 Low N/RC Districts 1.6 5.3 1.7 3.6 Charters, BOCES and State Schools 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.2

New York State – All Public Schools 7.9 10.3 1.7 8.2

Elementary Middle/secondary Other Total

7.7 3.8 0.6 3.8

12.1 15.2 7.4 13.4

8.9 15.4 3.5 10.6

0.0 0.3 0.0 0.2

NOTES Elementary assignments are special classes in Grades K-6 or special classes in which all students are eligible to take the New York State Alternate Assessment. Middle/secondary assignments are special classes in Grades 7-12.

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Appendix D References Boyd, Donald; Lankford, Hamilton; Loeb, Susanna; and Wyckoff, James (2005) The Draw of Home: How Teachers’ Preferences for Proximity Disadvantage Urban Schools. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Winter 2005, Vol. 24, No.1, 113-132. http://www.teacherpolicyresearch.org/ResearchPapers/tabid/103/Default.aspx New York State Board of Regents and New York State Education Department (1998) New York’s Commitment: Teaching to Higher Standards. http://www.nysed.gov/facmtg/paper20.pdf Peske, Heather and Haycock, Kati (2006) Teaching Inequality: How Poor and Minority Students Are Shortchanged on Teacher Quality. The Education Trust. http://www2.edtrust.org/EdTrust/Product+Catalog/subject+search (Select Teacher Quality) U.S. Department of Education, Office of Postsecondary Education, The Secretary’s Fifth Annual Report on Teacher Quality: A Highly Qualified Teacher in Every Classroom, Washington, D.C., 2006. http://www.ed.gov/about/reports/annual/teachprep/index.html

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