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years

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

dep old
11666.66667
7777.777778
5185.185185
3456.790123
2304.526749
1536.351166
1024.234111
682.8227404
455.2151603
303.4767735

-450000
170866.6667
94811.11111
79440.74074
69193.82716
62362.55144
57808.36763
54772.24508
52748.16339
51398.77559
75499.18373
14.20%

dts old
5833.333
3888.889
2592.593
1728.395
1152.263
768.1756
512.1171
341.4114
227.6076
151.7384

dep new
150000
100000
66666.67
44444.44
29629.63
19753.09
13168.72
8779.15
5852.766
3901.844

dts new deffirence of dts NCF after debt diff in NWC


75000
69166.66667
48,700
-32,000
50000
46111.11111
48,700
0
33333.33
30740.74074
48,700
0
22222.22
20493.82716
48,700
0
14814.81
13662.55144
48,700
0
9876.543
9108.367627
48,700
0
6584.362
6072.245085
48,700
0
4389.575
4048.16339
48,700
0
2926.383
2698.775593
48,700
0
1950.922
1799.183729
48,700
0

sv
inves. Allow tax Old
New
Net sv
total cash flow PVF(13.41%)
45,000
0
40,000
40,000
170,867
0.881756459
0
0
0
0
94,811
0.777563015
0
0
0
0
79,441
0.685681671
0
0
0
0
69,194
0.604657558
0
0
0
0
62,363
0.533207723
0
0
0
0
57,808
0.470200814
0
0
0
0
54,772
0.414639166
0
0
0
0
52,748
0.365643003
0
0
0
0
51,399
0.322436511
0
15,000
40,000
25,000
75,499
0.284335548
NET PV
Investment
INCRE CASH FLOW

PV(CV)
150662.7869
73721.6134
54471.05985
41838.57057
33252.19407
27181.54152
22710.71802
19286.99689
16572.84187
21467.10175
461165.4249
450,000
11,165

PVF for 14.20%


0.875656743
0.766774731
0.671431463
0.587943488
0.514836679
0.45082021
0.394763756
0.345677545
0.302694873
0.265056806

PV(CV)
149620.5487
72698.7642
53339.01278
40682.06007
32106.5289
26061.18041
21622.0972
18233.85561
15558.14584
20011.57252
449933.7663
450,000
-66

npv
years

IRR

dep old

dts old

dep new

1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

8.75
6.5625
4.921875
3.69140625
2.768554688
2.076416016
1.557312012
1.167984009
0.875988007
0.656991005
0.492743254
0.36955744
0.27716808
0.20787606
0.155907045

3.0625
2.296875
1.72265625
1.291992188
0.968994141
0.726745605
0.545059204
0.408794403
0.306595802
0.229946852
0.172460139
0.129345104
0.097008828
0.072756621
0.054567466

2010

-85

-85

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

33.11550781
16.68713086
15.44034814
14.50526111
11.80394583
13.27795937
12.88346953
1259%
12.36570161
12.19927621
12.07445716
18.48084287
18%

26.11550781
16.68713086
15.44034814
14.50526111
11.80394583
13.27795937
12.88346953
12.58760215
12.36570161
12.19927621
12.07445716
18.48084287
16%

22.69
17.0175
12.763125
9.57234375
7.179257813
5.384443359
4.03833252
3.02874939
2.271562042
1.703671532
1.277753649
0.958315237
87.88505429

dts new
0
0
0
7.9415
5.956125
4.46709375
3.350320313
2.512740234
1.884555176
1.413416382
1.060062286
0.795046715
0.596285036
0.447213777
0.335410333
30.759769

deffirence of dts
-3.0625
-2.296875
-1.72265625
6.649507813
4.987130859
3.740348145
2.805261108
2.103945831
1.577959373
1.18346953
0.887602148
0.665701611
0.499276208
0.374457156
0.280842867

includin the ef
suppose of total revenue

inflation on other things is 6%

80% due to fuel


20% from others
New machine Old machine
2.12
5.936

total Cash flow in old machine


total Cash flow in new machine

inflation on fuel price is 10%


Net incremental increase in profit
previous incremental increase in profit
increase in cash flow due to inflation
Percentage increase due to inflation

years

IRR

dep old

dts old

8.8
10.92
19.656
18
1.656
0.092

dep new

1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

8.75
6.5625
4.921875
3.69140625
2.768554688
2.076416016
1.557312012
1.167984009
0.875988007
0.656991005
0.492743254
0.36955744
0.27716808
0.20787606
0.155907045

3.0625
2.296875
1.72265625
1.291992188
0.968994141
0.726745605
0.545059204
0.408794403
0.306595802
0.229946852
0.172460139
0.129345104
0.097008828
0.072756621
0.054567466

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

-85.2
34.19190781
18.93895966
18.97574519
19.44231469
18.27160834
21.41704683
22.84775303
24.54499973
26.49957978
28.70987116
31.18042685
40.42096177
27%

-85.2
27.19190781
18.93895966
18.97574519
19.44231469
18.27160834
21.41704683
22.84775303
24.54499973
26.49957978
28.70987116
31.18042685
40.42096177
25%

22.69
17.0175
12.763125
9.57234375
7.179257813
5.384443359
4.03833252
3.02874939
2.271562042
1.703671532
1.277753649
0.958315237
87.88505429

24.64
30.576

dts new
0
0
0
7.9415
5.956125
4.46709375
3.350320313
2.512740234
1.884555176
1.413416382
1.060062286
0.795046715
0.596285036
0.447213777
0.335410333
30.759769

deffirence of dts
-3.0625
-2.296875
-1.72265625
6.649507813
4.987130859
3.740348145
2.805261108
2.103945831
1.577959373
1.18346953
0.887602148
0.665701611
0.499276208
0.374457156
0.280842867

overhauling values afte

overhauling values afte


years

dep old

dts old

dep new

1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

8.75
6.5625
4.921875
3.69140625
2.768554688
2.076416016
1.557312012
1.167984009
0.875988007
0.656991005
0.492743254
0.36955744
0.27716808

3.0625
2.296875
1.72265625
1.291992188
0.968994141
0.726745605
0.545059204
0.408794403
0.306595802
0.229946852
0.172460139
0.129345104
0.097008828

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

-25
8.633307813
6.290865459
6.308657578
6.468328447
4.747870443
7.132016358
7.610668239
8.177729499
8.830240449
12.56774245
26%

-25
6.445807813
6.290865459
6.308657578
6.468328447
4.747870443
7.132016358
7.610668239
8.177729499
8.830240449
12.56774245
24%

9.94
7.455
5.59125
4.1934375
3.145078125
2.358808594
1.769106445
1.326829834
0.995122375
0.746341782
87.88505429

dts new
0
0
0
3.479
2.60925
1.9569375
1.467703125
1.100777344
0.825583008
0.619187256
0.464390442
0.348292831
0.261219624
30.759769

deffirence of dts
-3.0625
-2.296875
-1.72265625
2.187007813
1.640255859
1.230191895
0.922643921
0.691982941
0.518987206
0.389240404
0.291930303
0.218947727
0.164210795

npv of using new machine


NCF after debt/ATCs

IATS

Old

11.7
11.7
11.7
11.7
11.7
11.7
11.7
11.7
11.7
11.7
11.7
11.7

7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

New
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Net sv
0
0
0
7.766
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6.5

0
0
0
7.766
0
0
0
-2
0
0
0
0
0
0
6.5

includin the effect of inflation and fuel price rise

otal Cash flow in old machine


otal Cash flow in new machine

28
10

total cash flow


-3.0625
-2.296875
-1.72265625
33.11550781
16.68713086
15.44034814
14.50526111
11.80394583
13.27795937
12.88346953
12.58760215
12.36570161
12.19927621
12.07445716
18.48084287

NCF after debt/ATCS


IATS
11.7
11.7
11.7
12.7764
13.9518288
15.23539705
16.63705358
18.16766251
19.83908746
21.6642835
23.65739759
25.83387816
28.21059496
30.80596969
33.6401189

Old

7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

New
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Net sv
0
0
0
7.766
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6.5

0
0
0
7.766
0
0
0
-2
0
0
0
0
0
0
6.5

total cash flow


8.6375
9.403125
9.97734375
34.19190781
18.93895966
18.97574519
19.44231469
18.27160834
21.41704683
22.84775303
24.54499973
26.49957978
28.70987116
31.18042685
40.42096177

ing values after including inflation and price of fuels

ing values after including inflation and price of fuels


NCF after debt/ATCS

4.2588
4.6506096
5.078465683
5.545684526
6.055887502
6.613029153
7.221427835
7.885799196
8.611292722
9.403531652

IATS

Old

2.1875
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

New
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0

Net sv
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-2
0
0
0
0
3

total cash flow


-3.0625
-2.296875
-1.72265625
8.633307813
6.290865459
6.308657578
6.468328447
4.747870443
7.132016358
7.610668239
8.177729499
8.830240449
12.56774245

PVF(16%)

0.862068966
0.743162901
0.640657674
0.552291098
0.476113015
0.410442255
0.35382953
0.305025457
0.26295298
0.226683603
0.1954169
0.168462844
PVCash Flow
Investment
INCRE CASH FLOW

PV(CV)
0
0
0
28.54785156
12.40125658
9.891977521
8.011126583
5.620012244
5.449835583
4.558551967
3.839539095
3.251598088
2.76537589
2.359552981
3.113335357
89.81001345
85
5

total cs without IATS


-3.0625
-2.296875
-1.72265625
26.11550781
16.68713086
15.44034814
14.50526111
11.80394583
13.27795937
12.88346953
12.58760215
12.36570161
12.19927621
12.07445716
18.48084287

PV(CV)
0
0
0
22.5133688
12.40125658
9.891977521
8.011126583
5.620012244
5.449835583
4.558551967
3.839539095
3.251598088
2.76537589
2.359552981
3.113335357
83.7755307
80
3.775530696

PVF(16%)

PV(CV)

0.862068966
0.743162901
0.640657674
0.552291098
0.476113015
0.410442255
0.35382953
0.305025457
0.26295298
0.226683603
0.1954169
0.168462844
PVCash Flow
Investment

0
0
0
29.4757826
14.07473221
12.15695677
10.73781732
8.699350543
8.79046099
8.084209715
7.486849756
6.968143471
6.50805705
6.09318234
6.809430194
125.884973
85.2

INCRE CASH FLOW

40.68497296

f fuels

total cs without IATS


8.6375
9.403125
9.97734375
27.19190781
18.93895966
18.97574519
19.44231469
18.27160834
21.41704683
22.84775303
24.54499973
26.49957978
28.70987116
31.18042685
40.42096177
326.4591436

PV(CV)
0
0
0
23.44129984
14.07473221
12.15695677
10.73781732
8.699350543
8.79046099
8.084209715
7.486849756
6.968143471
6.50805705
6.09318234
6.809430194
119.8504902
85.2
34.6504902

f fuels
PVF(20%)

PV(CV)

0.833333333
0.694444444
0.578703704
0.482253086
0.401877572
0.334897977
0.279081647
0.232568039
0.193806699
0.161505583
PVCash Flow
Investment

0
0
0
7.194423177
4.368656569
3.650843506
3.119371358
1.908062646
2.388497848
2.123997829
1.901878516
1.711359757
2.02976057
30.39685177
25

INCRE CASH FLOW

5.396851774

total cs without IATS


-3.0625
-2.296875
-1.72265625
6.445807813
6.290865459
6.308657578
6.468328447
4.747870443
7.132016358
7.610668239
8.177729499
8.830240449
12.56774245

PV(CV)
0
0
0
5.37150651
4.368656569
3.650843506
3.119371358
1.908062646
2.388497848
2.123997829
1.901878516
1.711359757
2.02976057
28.57393511
25
3.573935108

years

dep buy
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

DTS

18.75
14.0625
10.546875
7.91015625
5.932617188
4.449462891
3.337097168
2.502822876
67.49153137
7.508468628

6.5625
4.921875
3.69140625
2.768554688
2.076416016
1.557312012
1.167984009
0.875988007

buying machine
NCF after debt/ATCs
Net sv
total cash flow
11.7
0
18.2625
11.7
0
16.621875
11.7
0
15.39140625
11.7
0
14.46855469
11.7
0
13.77641602
11.7
0
13.25731201
11.7
0
12.86798401
11.7
6.525
19.10098801

Lease
year

Cost of rent

Main

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

-14
-14
-14
-14
-14
-14
-14
-14
0

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

-75
56.625
-18.375
-18.375
-18.375
-18.375
-18.375
-18.375
-18.375
0
26.0221%

Total
0
-1.75
-1.75
-1.75
-1.75
-1.75
-1.75
-1.75
-1.75

ATCS
-14
-15.75
-15.75
-15.75
-15.75
-15.75
-15.75
-15.75
-1.75

NCF
-9.1
-10.2375
-10.2375
-10.2375
-10.2375
-10.2375
-10.2375
-10.2375
-1.1375

0
11.7
11.7
11.7
11.7
11.7
11.7
11.7
11.7

Hiring
IRR

IRR
Years

DTS
0
1
2

installment
DIC
0
-18.375
6.5625
-18.375
4.921875
-18.375

Period

Install
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Sv
-11.94375
-11.94375
-11.94375

18.375
18.375
18.375
18.375
18.375
18.375
18.375

NCF
0
0
0

0
11.7
11.7

3
4
5
6
7

3.69140625
2.768554688
2.076416016
1.557312012
1.167984009

-18.375
-18.375
-18.375
-18.375
0

-11.94375
-11.94375
-11.94375
-11.94375
0

0
0
0
0
0

11.7
11.7
11.7
11.7
11.7

buying machine
PVF(9.5%)
0.913242009
0.834010967
0.761653851
0.695574293
0.635227665
0.580116589
0.52978684
0.483823598
PVF
Inves
NPV

PV(CV)
16.67808219
13.86282605
11.72292385
10.0639547
8.751160582
7.690786628
6.817288579
9.241508738
84.82853132 IRR
75
9.828531317

-75
18.2625
16.62188
15.39141
14.46855
13.77642
13.25731
12.86798
18.57599
13%

Lease
Total Cash Flow
-9.1
1.4625
1.4625
1.4625
1.4625
1.4625
1.4625
1.4625
10.5625

PVC

PV(CV)

1
0.913242009
0.834010967
0.761653851
0.695574293
0.635227665
0.580116589
0.52978684
0.483823598
PV(CV)

-9.1
1.335616438
1.21974104
1.113918758
1.017277404
0.92902046
0.848420512
0.774813253
5.110386751
3.249194616

Hiring
Interest
14.733825
13.78749584
12.59373161
11.08932506
9.19344055
6.804207371
3.793245908

Capital
Principal outstanding at the end
3.641175
52.983825
4.587504164
48.39632084
5.781268385
42.61505245
7.285674943
35.32937751
9.18155945
26.14781806
11.57079263
14.57702543
14.58175409
-0.004728663

interest

DIC

0
14.733825 5.15683875
13.78749584 4.825623542

Total Cash Flow

PVC

PV(CV)
-18.375
1
-18.375
5.04433875 0.913242 4.606702
3.072498542 0.834011 2.562497

12.59373161 4.407806065
11.08932506 3.88126377
9.19344055 3.217704193
6.804207371 2.38147258
3.793245908 1.327636068

1.424212315
-0.025181542
-1.380879792
-2.736215409
14.19562008

0.761654 1.084757
0.695574 -0.01752
0.635228 -0.87717
0.580117 -1.58732
0.529787 7.520653
PV(CV)
-5.0824

prob
a
b
c
d

r1
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.2

r2
5
7
-4
15

r1*prob
-1
6
2
20

0.5
2.8
-1.2
3
5.1

r1*prob r1-mean of r1
-0.1
-0.1
2.4
1.9
0.6
-9.1
4
9.9
6.9
2.6

r2-meanof r2 square of( r1- mean r1)


square of( r2- mean r2)
r1^2 *prob
r2^2 * prob
-7.9
0.01
62.41
0.001
6.241
-0.9
3.61
0.81
1.444
0.324
-4.9
82.81
24.01
24.843
7.203
13.1
98.01
171.61
19.602
34.322
-0.6
184.44
258.84
45.89
48.09
Standard Deviation
6.774215822 6.934695379

correlation

0.752854667

0.824018105

0.939923954

(r1-meanof r1)(r2-meanof r2)


prob*(r1-meanof r1)(r2-meanof r2)
0.79
0.079
-1.71
-0.684
44.59
13.377
129.69
25.938
-1.56
38.71

Covareince

38.71