Human Development Report 2013

The Rise of the South:
Human Progress in a Diverse World
Empowered lives. Resilient nations.

W N

S E

The 2013 Human Development Report is the latest in the series of global Human Development Reports published by UNDP since 1990 as independent, empirically grounded analyses of major development issues, trends and policies. Additional resources related to the 2013 Human Development Report can be found online at http://hdr.undp.org, including complete editions or summaries of the Report in more than 20 languages, a collection of Human Development Research Papers commissioned for the 2013 Report, interactive maps and databases of national human development indicators, full explanations of the sources and methodologies employed in the Report’s human development indices, country profiles and other background materials as well as previous global, regional and national Human Development Reports.

Human Development Report 2013
The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World

Published for the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
Empowered lives. Resilient nations.

Human Development Reports 1990–2013
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007/2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 Concept and Measurement of Human Development Financing Human Development Global Dimensions of Human Development People’s Participation New Dimensions of Human Security Gender and Human Development Economic Growth and Human Development Human Development to Eradicate Poverty Consumption for Human Development Globalization with a Human Face Human Rights and Human Development Making New Technologies Work for Human Development Deepening Democracy in a Fragmented World Millennium Development Goals: A Compact among Nations to End Human Poverty Cultural Liberty in Today’s Diverse World International Cooperation at a Crossroads: Aid, Trade and Security in an Unequal World Beyond Scarcity: Power, Poverty and the Global Water Crisis Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World Overcoming Barriers: Human Mobility and Development The Real Wealth of Nations: Pathways to Human Development Sustainability and Equity: A Better Future for All The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World

Regional Human Development Reports: Over the past two decades, regionally focused HDRs have also been produced in all major areas of the developing world, with support from UNDP’s regional bureaus. With provocative analyses and clear policy recommendations, regional HDRs have examined such critical issues as political empowerment in the Arab states, food security in Africa, climate change in Asia, treatment of ethnic minorities in Central Europe and challenges of inequality and citizens’ security in Latin America and the Caribbean. National Human Development Reports: Since the release of the first national HDR in 1992, national HDRs have been produced in 140 countries by local editorial teams with UNDP support. These reports—some 700 to date—bring a human development perspective to national policy concerns through local consultations and research. National HDRs have covered many key development issues, from climate change to youth employment to inequalities driven by gender or ethnicity.

Copyright © 2013 by the United Nations Development Programme 1 UN Plaza, New York, NY 10017, USA All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission. ISBN 978-92-1-126340-4 A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library and the Library of Congress. Printed in Canada by Gilmore Printing Services Inc. on Forest Stewardship Council certified and elemental chlorine-free papers. Printed using vegetable-based inks and produced by means of environmentally compatible technology. Editing and production: Communications Development Incorporated, Washington DC Design: Melanie Doherty Design, San Francisco, CA For a list of any errors or omissions found subsequent to printing, please visit our website at http://hdr.undp.org

Alan Fuchs. Jonathan Hall. Mamaye Gebretsadik and Fe Juarez-Shanahan | iii . Scott Lewis and Samantha Wauchope National Human Development Reports Eva Jespersen (Deputy Director). Diane Bouopda. Mary Ann Mwangi and Paola Pagliani Operations and administration Sarantuya Mend (Operations Manager). Ekaterina Berman. Cecilia Calderón. José Pineda and Swarnim Waglé Communications and publishing William Orme (Chief of Communications). Amie Gaye. Milorad Kovacevic (Chief Statistician). Subhra Bhattacharjee. Carlotta Aiello. Christina Hackmann. Iana Konova. Arthur Minsat. Astra Bonini. Botagoz Abdreyeva. Eleonore Fournier-Tombs. Shivani Nayyar. Jean-Yves Hamel.Human Development Report 2013 Team Director and lead author Khalid Malik Research and statistics Maurice Kugler (Head of Research).

climate change. France. the Report examines the strategies which enabled them to perform well. The crises of recent years—food. The Report argues that the striking transformation of a large number of developing countries into dynamic major economies with growing political influence is having a significant impact on human development progress. and increasingly development cooperation partners for other developing countries. and as a convener of partners—governments. In this respect. The Report notes that. Much of this expansion is being driven by new trade and technology partnerships within the South itself. Germany. the combined economic output of three leading developing countries alone—Brazil. according to projections developed for this Report. We have a key role too in facilitating learning and capacity building. climate— which have blighted the lives of so many point to this. The Report also suggests that as global development challenges become more complex and transboundary in nature. health. including on the gender dimension. the United Kingdom and the United States. the Report calls for new institutions which can facilitate regional integration and South–South cooperation. Pro-poor policies and significant investments iv | Human Development Report 2013 in people’s capabilities—through a focus on education. the 2013 Report makes a significant contribution to development thinking by describing specific drivers of development transformation and by suggesting future policy priorities that could help sustain such momentum. there was notable convergence in HDI values globally. By 2020. migration. A key message contained in this and previous Human Development Reports. and managing demographic change. civil society and multinational companies—to share experiences. over the last decade. Looking specifically at countries which lifted their HDI value substantially between 1990 and 2012 on both the income and non-income dimensions of human development. although progress was uneven within and between regions. This Report offers very useful insights for our future engagement in South–South cooperation. as this Report also shows. is essential. The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World looks at the evolving geopolitics of our times. Italy. UNDP is able to play a useful role as a knowledge broker. or peace and security. China and India—will surpass the aggregate production of Canada. confronting environmental pressures. and their experiences and South–South cooperation are equally an inspiration to development policy. and to the importance of working to reduce people’s vulnerability to shocks and disasters. and income dimensions as measured in the Human Development Index (HDI)—to the extent that no country for which data was available had a lower HDI value in 2012 than in 2000. investment. and employment skills—can expand access to decent work and provide for sustained progress. however. is that economic growth alone does not automatically translate into human development progress. all countries accelerated their achievements in the education. As faster progress was recorded in lower HDI countries during this period. The 2013 Report identifies four specific areas of focus for sustaining development momentum: enhancing equity. expertise. As countries are increasingly interconnected through trade. including youth. and information and communications technologies. and development thinking in the South. nutrition and health. . coordinated action on the most pressing challenges of our era. enabling greater voice and participation of citizens. Emerging powers in the developing world are already sources of innovative social and economic policies and are major trade. examining emerging issues and trends and also the new actors which are shaping the development landscape. financial.Foreword The 2013 Human Development Report. it is no surprise that policy decisions in one place have substantial impacts elsewhere. whether they be poverty eradication. To harness the wealth of knowledge. Many other countries across the South have seen rapid development.

I hope many will take the time to read this Report and reflect on its lessons for our fast-changing world. The Report refreshes our understanding of the current state of global development. As discussion continues on the global development agenda beyond 2015.Finally. the Report also calls for a critical look at global governance institutions to promote a fairer. more equal world. which do not reflect the new economic and geopolitical reality described. It points to outdated structures. Helen Clark Administrator United Nations Development Programme Foreword | v . and considers options for a new era of partnership. who are often the poorest and most vulnerable people in our world. and highlights the role of global civil society in advocating for this and for greater decision-making power for those most directly affected by global challenges. It also calls for greater transparency and accountability. and demonstrates how much can be learned from the experiences of fast development progress in so many countries in the South.

undp. Preparation of this Report was guided by a careful re-reading of the first Human Development Reports by Mahbub ul Haq. Throughout the preparation of the Report. Sir James Alexander Mirrlees. the Report opens with a review of the current “state of human development”. Nora Lustig. Many of our UNDP colleagues around the world—as members of the HDRO Readers Group and the Executive Group—provided invaluable insights into the preparation and final drafting of the Report. Peter Harper. Barry Hughes.Acknowledgements The Human Development Report is the product of a collective effort by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Report Office (HDRO) and many valued external advisors and contributors. Mahbub’s close collaborators. are those of the authors alone. Kilele. Madi . Nader Fergany. Shantanu Mukherjee. especially Edward S. Abdoulaye Mar Dieye. Miguel Székely and Kandeh K.M. Geneva. To ensure accuracy and clarity. Pedro Conceição. The publication of this Report in March 2013 represents a return to the original schedule of the Human Development Reports. The consultations held around the world during preparation of the Report relied on the generous support of many institutions and individuals who are too numerous to mention here. Brasilia. The Report’s composite indices and other statistical resources rely on the expertise of the leading international data providers in their specialized fields. analysis and policy recommendations of this Report. Hendrik Van der Pol. Charles McNeill. and we express our gratitude for their continued collegial collaboration with the Human Development Report. the Report’s statistical analysis also benefited from an external review of statistical findings by Akmal Abdurazakov. looking at key human development trends and issues in the world today. Gustav Ranis. Peter Kragelund. Yumkella. listed at http://hdr. Anthony K. Virginija Cruijsen. Rabat. Patrick Heller. who generously provided both critical advice and written contributions.org/ en/reports/hdr2013/consultations. Rachid Benmokhtar Benabdellah. We would like to express special gratitude to the authors of research papers commissioned by HDRO. Selim Jehan. It also benefited greatly from the wise counsel of Amartya Sen and Frances Stewart. the findings. Santiago and Tokyo. Ayensu. Samir Radwan. Inge Kaul. Olav Kjørven. New York. we received invaluable insights and guidance from our distinguished HDRO Advisory Panel. We would also like to thank HDRO’s statistical panel. Wolfgang Lutz. Enrico Giovannini. Nanna Hvidt. Frances Stewart. We would especially like to thank Adel Abdellatif. Kamal Malhotra. Support from partnering institutions. is acknowledged with much gratitude. Jayati Ghosh. including UNDP country and regional offices. Bonn. among others. Kenneth Harttgen and Claudio Montenegro. Rima Khalaf. Ben Paul Mungyereza. This timing allows the Report’s composite indices to incorporate the most current statistical indicators and provides greater opportunity for discussions of the Report’s key findings and messages during the year. Cristovam Buarque. Leonce Ndikumana and Ngaire Woods. Colombo. However. Marcia Quintsler and Eduardo Sojo Garza-Aldape. as with previous Reports. Sabina Alkire. In that spirit. Pachauri. Michael Elliott. Khalil Hamdani. Heraldo Muñoz. who greatly enriched our understanding of the issues we set out to address: Fred Block. We are pleased that this Report features signed contributions from New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Japan International Cooperation Agency President Akihiko Tanaka and Turkey’s Minister of Development Cevdet Yılmaz. Ajay Chhibber. George Ronald Gray Molina. Shiva Kumar. Natalia Linou. which provided expert advice on methodologies and data choices related to the calculation of the Report’s human development indices: Anthony Atkinson. Rebeca Grynspan. Patrick vi | HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2013 Guillaumont. Consultations were held between September 2011 and June 2012 in Addis Ababa. with its global launch and distribution in the first part of the year. Deepak Nayyar. Ilene Grabel. Rizal Ramli. Rajendra K.

we are grateful for the painstaking work of our editors at Communications Development Incorporated. Heather Simpson. Apart from a critical read of the draft Report by Frances Stewart and Jomo Kwame Sundaram and extensive review by Khalil Hamdani. and of designer Melanie Doherty. Pedro Conceição and Peter Stalker.Musa. The Report has been blessed with many “friends of HDRO” who have gone out of their way to help strengthen it. Thangaval Palanivel. Wanshan Li. Khalid Malik Director Human Development Report Office Acknowledgments | vii . Shiva Kumar. Joshua Greenstein. Ni Gu. I am profoundly grateful to the HDRO team for their dedication and commitment in producing a report that meets the highest standards of scholarship. talented young colleagues made important contributions to the thorough fact checking of the Report. Several hard working. Mounir Tabet. Turhan Saleh. Antonio Vigilante and Kanni Wignaraja. Diana Jimenez. Veronica Postal and Alyssa Vladimir. Most of all. Terry McKinley. with Meta de  Coquereaumont. Ben Slay. led by Bruce Ross-Larson. Anuradha Rajivan. These include Philip Bastian. Christopher Trott and Elaine Wilson.

1980–2012 Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index Gender Inequality Index Multidimensional Poverty Index Command over resources 144 148 152 156 160 162 166 170 174 178 182 186 190 194 140 143 Chapter 1 The state of human development Progress of nations Social integration Human security 21 23 34 38 Chapter 2 A more global South Rebalancing: a more global world.5 Decent work in a competitive world 2.7 Brazil.5 Inequality holds back human development 22 22 24 31 Chapter 4 Sustaining momentum Policy priorities for developing countries Modelling demography and education Impact of the rate of population ageing The need for ambitious policies Seizing the moment 87 87 97 100 101 102 1.1 History and initial conditions matter. China and India at work in Zambia 3. but they are not destiny 3.Contents Foreword Acknowledgements Overview Introduction iv vi 1 11 Notes References 125 131 Statistical annex Readers guide Key to HDI countries and ranks.6 Final assembly is about more than low wages 2.2 What is a developmental state? Need it be authoritarian? 3.2 Short-term cuts have long-term consequences: rising fertility rates in Africa 1.3 What is it like to be a human being? 1.7 Social competencies: human development beyond the individual 1. a more global South Impetus from human development Innovation and entrepreneurship in the South New forms of cooperation Sustaining progress in uncertain times 43 43 49 54 56 60 7 Health 8 Education 9 10 11 12 14 Social integration International trade flows of goods and services International capital flows and migration Innovation and technology Population trends 13 Environment Chapter 3 Drivers of development transformation Driver 1: a proactive developmental state Driver 2: tapping of global markets Driver 3: determined social policy innovation Regions 198 63 66 74 77 Statistical references Technical appendix: explanatory note for projections exercise 199 200 Boxes 1.4 Mobile phones and the Palapa Ring: connecting Indonesia 2. new mechanisms Conclusions: partners in a new era viii | Human Development Report 2013 105 106 109 110 112 116 117 119 2.8 Poverty’s structural dimensions 2.4 Investing in agriculture 3.5 Eastern Europe and Central Asia: where North meets South .4 Subjective indicators of well-being: increased acceptance in thinking and policy 28 1.1 The South’s integration with the world economy and human development 2.2 Acquisitions by the South of brands in the North 2. macroeconomics and human development 1. 2012 Statistical tables 1 2 3 4 5 6 Human Development Index and its components Human Development Index trends.1 Fairness.3 Japan and triangular cooperation 3.6 Education quality: achievement on the Programme for International Student Assessment 33 1.3 Ties that bind: the mutual dependence of North and South 36 37 44 48 49 51 53 54 57 65 67 68 69 70 Chapter 5 Governance and partnerships for a new era A new global view of public goods Better representation for the South Global civil society Towards coherent pluralism Responsible sovereignty New institutions.

2010–2015.1 HDI and components. 2012 1.2 Top five countries that rank better on the HDI than on gross national income per capita in 2012 1.4 There is notable variation among countries in the gap between income poverty and multidimensional poverty 1. 2010–2050 75 89 90 96 99 103 Contents | ix .1 Selected developing countries that registered large reductions in HDI shortfall or high rates of growth in gross national income per capita.6 Emerging market economies have amassed large foreign exchange reserves since 1995 58 3.1 Under-five mortality rate and total fertility rate by mother’s education level 4.3 .7 Few countries show both the high HDI and low ecological footprint required for sustainable human development 1. 2000–2001 and 2010–2011 2. 2025–2030 and 2045–2050 4. by region.3.3 Population in extreme poverty under the environmental disaster scenario.2 In most countries.7 Bangladesh makes dramatic advances in child survival 3.1 Income per capita is rising to varying degrees in all four HDI groups 1. .9 Conditional cash transfer programmes and Mexico’s Oportunidades 3. the largest projected increases in the Human Development Index are in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia 5. . Internet use grew more than 30% a year in around 60 developing countries 2.8 Strengthening social protection in Turkey 3. up from 10% in 1950 The middle class in the South is projected to continue to grow The exponential rise in Internet use in the South has been most notable over the past decade At least 15 developing countries have substantial trading relationships with more than 100 trade partners as both exporters and importers Official foreign exchange reserves by country group 12 4. especially for low HDI countries 94 98 101 101 102 103 118 4.3 Between 2000 and 2010.1 Under the accelerated progress scenario.1 Why population prospects will likely differ in the Republic of Korea and India 4.5 Number of people in extreme poverty by region and selected countries. as are current child survival and previous public expenditure on health 4.6 India’s Supreme Court issues a progressive verdict mandating seats for disadvantaged children in private schools 3. . 1995–2011 45 1.5 Losses due to inequality in HDI and its components 1. while North–North trade declined 2.5 Current foreign direct investment is positively associated with achievements in health and education in previous years Tables 1. by region and HDI group.1 Under the fast track scenario.3 Inequality and satisfaction with freedom of choice and community 2.2 Projected number of deaths of children under age 5. employment opportunities have not kept pace with educational attainment 93 4.2 Current HDI values and previous public expenditures are positively correlated .3 The lower the HDI value.2 Different models of development partnerships 25 27 38 46 56 3.1 There is a small negative connotation between homicide rates and HDI values 39 2. South–South trade more than tripled over 1980–2011. 2010–2050 4.1 Some countries have performed well on both the nonincome and the income dimensions of the HDI 3.3 Regional finance in Asia: Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization and the Asian Development Bank 5. by education scenario. 71 4. 1990–2012 64 3.6 Populations are ageing more rapidly in developing countries 4. base case and accelerated progress scenarios.9 Advances in GDP per capita through 2050 are especially strong under the accelerated progress scenario 5.8 Human development outcomes through 2050 improve more under the accelerated progress scenario 4.2 Foreign direct investment flows to and from the South have veered sharply upward since the 1990s 2. the larger the gap between income poverty and multidimensional poverty 1. .2 A world parliament for global democracy? 5. 1970–2050 4.6 Most regions show declining inequality in health and education and rising inequality in income 1.1 Thailand’s export expansion.2 China and Ghana: who benefits from the demographic dividend? 5.2 Allocating a small fraction of the international reserves of the nine G20 countries of the South could provide substantial additional resources for public investment in infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia 12 13 14 15 16 18 26 26 29 30 31 32 35 40 46 47 50 52 53 3 4 5 6 7 118 Maps 1.5 Education policies can alter dependency ratios 4.2 Sub-Saharan Africa has sustained income growth over the last decade 1.1 Least developed countries’ trade with China. some countries have greater carbon productivity than others 4. 1985–1990 and 2005–2010 4.2 Share of world exports of goods and services of high achievers in human development.8 Development is not always accompanied by a rise in military spending 2.3 At each HDI level.4 Export earnings per capita and human development are highly correlated 2. education outcomes are enhanced 63 71 92 3.7 Human development prospects for 2050 are greater under the accelerated progress scenario.1 As a share of world merchandise trade.4 Different environmental scenarios have different impacts on extreme poverty 96 Figures 1 2 Acceleration of growth on the HDI More than 40 countries of the South had greater gains on the HDI between 1990 and 2012 than would have been predicted from their previous performance on the HDI Brazil. selected countries.4 Trends in dependency ratios.10 Why New York City looked South for antipoverty policy advice 4. China and India combined are projected to account for 40% of global output by 2050.1 The shifting line between public and private in transportation 5.4 CAF: a Latin American development bank 79 81 83 84 85 88 100 106 112 114 115 2.

” Dag Hammarskjold .“It is when we all play safe that we create a world of utmost insecurity.

Over the past decades. facilitated by globalization. national averages hide large variations in human experience. with faster progress in low and medium HDI countries.1 By 2050. educational attainment and command over the resources needed for a decent living. There are also deeper problems. China. Stronger voices from the South are demanding more-­ representative frameworks of international governance that embody the principles of democracy and equity. Even so. Mauritius. Wide disparities remain within countries of both the North and the South. Chile. a composite measure of indicators along three dimensions: life expectancy. During these uncertain times. Ghana. a dedication to improving human development (including by supporting education and social welfare) and an openness to trade and innovation. lifting other developing economies. reducing poverty and increasing wealth on a grand scale. a more global South To the casual observer. a large number of countries have done particularly well—in what can be called the “rise of the South”. as shown by the Human Development Index (HDI). A changing world. This growing diversity in voice and power is challenging the principles that have guided policymakers and driven the major post–Second World War institutions. India. South Africa and Turkey. Brazil. Indonesia. But they have demonstrated how pragmatic policies and a strong focus on human development can release the opportunities latent in their economies. notably Brazil. many developing countries are reshaping ideas about how to attain human development. All groups and regions have seen notable improvement in all HDI components. which threatens global recovery and the sustainability of future progress Overview | 1 . shared by North and South: growing inequality in many countries. For example. The South has risen at an unprecedented speed and scale.Overview One of the most heartening developments in recent years has been the broad progress in human development of many developing countries and their emergence onto the global stage: the “rise of the South”. and income inequality within and between many countries has been rising. They still face formidable challenges and are home to many of the world’s poor. the state of affairs in 2013 may appear as a tale of two worlds: a resurgent South—most visibly countries such as China and India. Nevertheless. the world is becoming less unequal. future progress will require policymakers to play close attention to such issues as equity. China and India combined are projected to account for 40% of world output in purchasing power parity terms. Just as important. Some of the largest countries have made rapid advances. countries across the world have been converging towards higher levels of human development. but from applying pragmatic policies that respond to local circumstances and opportunities—including a deepening of the developmental role of states. Although most developing countries have done well. the current economic takeoffs in China and India began with about 1 billion people in each country and doubled output per capita in less than 20 years—an economic force affecting a much larger population than the Industrial Revolution did. Rwanda and Tunisia. where there is much human development progress. The rise of the South has resulted not from adhering to a fixed set of policy prescriptions. voice and accountability. both developed and developing. But there has also been substantial progress in smaller economies. such as Bangladesh. growth appears to remain robust and the prospects for poverty reduction are encouraging—and a North in crisis—where austerity policies and the absence of economic growth are imposing hardship on millions of unemployed people and people deprived of benefits as social compacts come under intense pressure. countries of the South are collectively bolstering world economic growth. environmental risks and changing demography. On this basis.

and openness to trade and innovation. While the rise of the South is reshaping power relations in many important respects. If the US recovery hesitates and Europe is unable to pull itself out of its current economic and social doldrums. driven in large measure by the rise of the South. accounted for nearly 60% of global output. key drivers and principles of development begin to emerge from the diversity of development paths that include deepening the developmental role of states. Global institutions appear unable to accommodate changing power relations. These principles require reconsideration. and increasingly the North needs the South. and the emergence of global. which. Elites. worsening climate change and growing social unrest. China and India. The headline story of a resurgent South is both uplifting and in some ways misleading. Developing countries have played a big part: between 1980 and 2010. as well as less well recognized success stories such as Bangladesh. presents an opportunity: the principles that have driven post–Second World War institutions and guided policymakers need recalibration. this Report is also about this changing world. one can go further and state that there is a “south” in the North and a “north” in the South. Yet the United States remains the largest economy in the world in monetary terms and will remain so for the foreseeable future. Mauritius and Turkey. Developing regions have also been strengthening links with each other: between 1980 and 2011. not less. ensure adequate provision of global public goods to meet global and regional challenges and respond to the growing need for greater equity and sustainability. the growing diversity in development patterns is creating space. if not a reset. The success of these countries calls into question the notion of “right” policies. The world is getting more connected. The changing global economy is creating unprecedented challenges and opportunities for continued progress in human development. more just world. The developmental paths of Brazil. Indeed. by 2011. There is scope then for innovation. whether from the North or the South. with much more destined for international trade. as well as serious concerns about the environment. This phenomenon. regional and national governance frameworks that embody principles of democracy. are reshaping ideas about how to attain human development.The South needs the North. to accommodate the growing diversity in voice and power and to sustain development progress over the long term. While focusing on the rise of the South and its implications for human development. and they benefit the most from the enormous wealth generation over the past decade. coupled with the diverse development paths followed by these countries from the South. it also underlines the imperatives of ensuring that concerns of equity and sustainability are fully incorporated into future policies and strategies. are increasingly global and connected. They are educated at the same universities and share similar lifestyles and perhaps values. Global challenges such as climate change and stressed ecosystems require countries to cooperate even more than before. even demands. On the contrary. equity and sustainability. the challenges arising (some as a result of that very success) and the opportunities emerging for representative global and regional governance. And while this Report acknowledges the positive aspects of the rise of the South. Global economic and political structures are in flux at a time when the world faces recurrent financial crises. Potentially. they increased their share of world merchandise trade from 25% to 47% and their share of world output from 33% to 45%. but that does not mean that valuable lessons cannot be drawn from the experiences of these successful countries. It examines the progress being made. dedication to human development and social welfare. hard-won gains in human development will be more difficult to protect if cooperation fails and difficult decisions are postponed. for such a global dialogue and restructuring. South–South trade increased from less than 8% of world merchandise trade to more than 26%. The South needs the North. As the 2011 2 | Human Development Report 2013 . there will be a large knock‑on effect on the developing world. and global institutions need greater flexibility to reinforce directions that put people first and nudge institutions to aim forcefully at a fairer. in part due to accelerating globalization. Recent years have seen a remarkable reorientation of global production. and increasingly the North needs the South and limits poverty reduction.

Brazilian and South African companies are having a similar impact. for example.2 Many countries have also benefited from spillovers into important human development sectors. while essential. education and income. measures and analytics are needed that broaden the human development concept. Indian firms. Individual achievements in health. investment. annual consumption in emerging markets is estimated Individual achievements in health. Yet there are examples of industrial revival following such competitive jolts. Increasingly. In both the North and the South. Furthermore. To some extent. do not guarantee progress in human development if social conditions constrain individual achievements and if perceptions about progress differ Overview | 3 .Human Development Report also stressed. especially those that are landlocked or distant from world markets. concerns and perceptions. finance and technology transfer. the promotion of social cohesion and social integration. Large countries generate competitive pressures that might stifle economic diversification and industrialization in smaller countries. are supplying affordable medicines. The middle class is growing in size and median income. many of these countries have also begun to benefit from South–South trade.1 percentage points lower in 2007–2010 had growth fallen at the same rate in China and India as in developed economies. in the majority of the 49 least developed countries. who are better educated and healthier than previous generations put a high premium on meaningful employment. The pace of change is slower. Moving from competition to cooperation seems to depend on policies that enable local agents to make the most of the new situation. particularly close trading partners. there have been positive growth spillovers from China to other countries. especially health. To support policymaking and research that adequately address these contemporary and emerging global realities. while essential. continued human development progress is unlikely if inequality and environmental destruction are not moved to the forefront of policy discussions. do not guarantee progress in human development if social conditions constrain individual achievements and if perceptions about progress differ. Growth income countries would have been an in low-­ estimated 0. medical equipment. the arrival of exports from larger countries can also have disadvantages. a business as usual approach to development combined with environmental crises could reverse human development gains in the South or make this progress unsustainable. facilitated by the explosion of social media. For example. and information and communications technology products and services to countries in Africa. where low economic growth. This finding is borne out by studies in both developed and developing countries. A competitive role today may easily turn into a complementary role in the future. for instance. given the rising call for fairness and accountability—from citizens. Helping other countries catch up All developing countries are not yet participating fully in the rise of the South. Nevertheless. Concerns for the future apply in the North as well. Under worst case scenarios. this has offset slackening demand from developed countries. By 2025. communities and civil organizations at home and abroad.3–1. the most important engine of growth for countries of the South is their domestic market. education and income. The Human Development Report and the family of human development indices must meet this challenge by moving beyond a focus on measuring individual capabilities to incorporate society-level capacities. Rising competitive pressures Nevertheless. Moreequal societies tend to do better in most measures of human development—from teenage pregnancies to suicide rates—than do unequal societies. high unemployment rates and austerity measures threaten the high levels of human development. These society-level aspects of development have been underappreciated in past conceptualizations of development but are proving to be essential elements of any viable and desirable long-term development path. especially the young. a stated objective of development strategies of countries such as Brazil. ruling elites cannot afford to ignore these threats to social inclusion and social welfare. on exercising a voice in affairs that influence their lives and on being treated with respect. The turmoil in several countries in the Arab States is a reminder that people. is based on evidence of the positive development impact of a unified society.

the South will account for three-fifths of the 1 billion households earning more than $20. not least by creating social and political tensions. such expansion will be hampered as well as marred by significant pockets of deprivation. they challenge preconceived and prescriptive approaches: on the one hand. centrally managed precepts. they diverge from the unfettered liberalization espoused by the Washington Consensus. institutions and policy recommendations that can secure the next steps in creating a more just and sustainable world. Despite posing some risks of rent seeking and cronyism. Policies. In large and complex societies. and rules and institutions that build trust and cohesion. Some features stand out: for instance. there have been three notable drivers of development: a proactive developmental state. partnerships. Instead of having a centre of industrialized countries and a periphery of less developed countries. By then. education and other public services—is not an appendage of the growth process but an integral part of it. institutions and infrastructure Driver 2: tapping of global markets Global markets have played an important role in advancing progress. they also not only un­ undermine the sustainability of progress. Priorities need to be people-centred and to promote opportunities while protecting people against downside risks. reduce or even eliminate poverty and advance progress for all. Governments can nurture industries that would not otherwise emerge because of incomplete markets. principles How have so many countries in the South been able to transform their human development prospects? Across most of these countries. tapping of global markets. countries that have succeeded in igniting and sustaining growth in incomes and human development have not followed one simple recipe. making shared assessments difficult and collective action elusive. returns from global markets tend to be limited. industrial development and technological progress. However. Nevertheless. Developmental states therefore need to be pragmatic and test a range of different approaches.to rise to $30 trillion. These trends are leading to a more balanced world. This Report contributes to this conversation by critically assessing the contemporary global context and by promoting principles and concepts that can help a diverse world move towards human development strategies that meet the new challenges of the 21st century. While there is much awareness at the global and regional levels that the world is in transition. leaders. Rapid expansion of quality jobs is a critical feature of growth that promotes human development. on the other hand. These disparities in the South’s expansion are desirable in themselves. export promotion. rather. shared norms and values. Investing in people’s capabilities—through health. Driver 1: a proactive developmental state A strong. they have adopted varying policies dealing with market regulation. Success is likely to be the result of gradual integration with the world economy and accompanied by investment in people.000 a year. this has enabled several countries of the South to turn inefficient industries into early drivers of export success as their economies became more open. Achieving enduring transformation requires countries to chart a consistent and balanced approach to development. But even more important are the terms of engagement with these markets. institutions and academics seemingly find it difficult to put forward principles. Indeed. people-friendly developmental states have expanded basic social services. All newly industrializing countries have pursued a strategy of “importing what the rest of the world knows and exporting what it wants”. Without investment in people. they are demonstrated by the transformational development experiences of many countries in the South. and determined social policy innovation. the outcome of any particular policy is inevitably uncertain. proactive and responsible state develops policies for both public and private sectors—based on a long-term vision and leadership. Faced with different challenges. These drivers do not spring from abstract conceptions of how development should work. Success is more likely to be the result not of a 4 | Human Development Report 2013 . they set aside a number of collectivist. This may be in part because the world is changing so rapidly and on so many fronts. there is now a more complex and dynamic environment.

This Report makes a strong case for policy ambition. is not only essential in itself. and governments do not always ensure that services actually reach everyone. This Report points to the high cost of policy inaction and argues for greater policy ambition. engage in public debate and make demands on government for health care. Education also has striking impacts on health and mortality.402 to 0. health care.527 to 0. It involves communities in setting budget priorities and holding leadership accountable. Research for this Report shows that a mother’s education level is more important to child survival than is household income. according to national circumstances. An accelerated progress scenario suggests that low HDI countries can converge towards the levels of human development achieved by high and very high HDI countries. but also in health and education Enhancing equity Greater equity. and accompanied by investment in people. Smaller economies have successfully focused on niche products. Sectoral balance—especially paying attention to the rural sector—and the nature and pace of employment expansion are critical in determining how far growth spreads incomes.sudden opening but of gradual and sequenced integration with the world economy. Projections also show that policy interventions have a greater impact in countries and regions where education outcomes are initially weaker. The aim should be to create virtuous circles where growth and social policies reinforce each other. Not all such services need to be provided publicly. particularly among different religious. Growth is generally much more effective in reducing poverty in countries where income inequality is low than in countries with high inequality. Promoting equality. which boosts people’s self-­ confidence and enables them to find better jobs. One of the most powerful instruments for this purpose is education. also helps minimize social conflict. aggregate HDI could rise 52% in Sub-Saharan Africa (from 0. Driver 3: determined social policy innovation Few countries have sustained rapid growth without impressive levels of public investment —not just in infrastructure. enabling voice and participation. The poor fringes of society struggle to voice their concerns. An agenda for development transformation is thus multifaceted. This has profound policy implications.714). But even in the higher achieving countries. Such Overview | 5 . Education. But even these basic policy instruments may not empower disenfranchised groups. social security and other entitlements. potentially shifting the emphasis from efforts to boost household income to measures to improve girls’ education. It reduces bureaucratic and social constraints on economic action and social mobility. but also important for promoting human development. By 2050. It improves the functioning of state and social institutions to promote both growth Few countries have sustained rapid growth without impressive levels of public investment—not just in ­ infrastructure. confronting environmental challenges and managing demographic change. How can countries in the South continue their progress in human development. legal empowerment and social organization all enable poor people to participate in growth. But the state should ensure that all citizens have secure access to the basic requirements of human development. and equity. whose success is often the fruit of years of state support built on existing competencies or the creation of new ones. ethnic or racial groups. institutions and infrastructure. but also in health and education. social protection. It expands poor people’s assets by increasing public expenditures on basic services. including between men and women and among other groups. Sustaining the momentum Many countries of the South have demonstrated much success. educated labour force. Social policy has to promote inclusion—ensuring nondiscrimination and equal treatment is critical for political and social stability—and provide basic social services that can underpin long-term economic growth by supporting the emergence of a healthy. future success is not guaranteed. and how can the progress be extended to other countries? This Report suggests four important areas to facilitate this: enhancing equity.612) and 36% in South Asia (from 0.

The longer the inaction. It is hard to predict when societies will reach a tipping point. which are more vulnerable. world population increased from 3. Climate change is already exacerbating chronic environmental threats. tend to erupt when people feel excluded from political influence and when bleak economic prospects lower the opportunity cost of engaging in such protests. and natural disasters affect everyone. however.6  billion to 7  billion. By contrast. Mass protests. and ecosystem losses are 6 | Human Development Report 2013 . Such upheaval can derail human development—as unrest impedes investment and growth and autocratic governments divert resources to maintaining law and order. An increasingly critical concern is a country’s dependency ratio—that is. especially in low HDI countries. the richer regions of the South confront a very different problem: as their population ages. The rate of population ageing matters because developing countries will struggle to meet the needs of an older population if they are still poor. new policies and structural changes are needed that align human development and climate change goals in low-emission. deforestation. national human development paths will be neither desirable nor sustainable. Moreover. but only if there is strong policy action. In part this is a response to limited employment opportunities for educated young people. climate-resilient strategies and innovative public-private financing mechanisms. Educated women tend to have fewer. Some poorer regions could benefit from a “demographic dividend” as the share of the working-age population rises. This Report presents Confronting environmental challenges Environmental threats such as climate change. They can be altered through education policies in particular. By contrast. Enabling voice and participation Unless people can participate meaningfully in the events and processes that shape their lives. in many countries educated women also enjoy higher salaries than do uneducated workers. History is replete with popular rebellions against unresponsive governments. But they hurt poor countries and poor communities most. the share of the working-age population falls. Dissatisfaction is increasingly high in both the North and the South as people call for more opportunities to voice their concerns and influence policy in order to ensure basic social protection and social progress.policy interventions will also have a positive impact on the fight against poverty. These effort-intensive forms of political participation are then easily coordinated by new forms of mass communication. Among the most active protesters are young people. especially by educated people. development prospects are influenced not just by the total number of people. People should be able to influence policymaking and results—and young people in particular should be able to look forward to greater economic opportunities and political participation and accountability. the costs of inaction will rise. constraining livelihood opportunities. healthier and better educated children. For instance. the higher the cost. As that population becomes more educated. the number of younger and older people divided by the working-age population ages 15–64. The cost of inaction will likely be high.3 Girls’ education is a critical vehicle of a possible demographic dividend. its growth rate will slow. Demographic trends are not destiny. Although low HDI countries contribute the least to global climate change. with dire implications for agricultural production and livelihoods. To ensure sustainable economies and societies. they are likely to endure the greatest loss in annual rainfall and the sharpest increase in its variability. Many developing countries now have only a short window of opportunity to reap the full benefits of the demographic dividend. national human development paths will be neither desirable nor sustainable Unless people can participate meaningfully in the events and processes that shape their lives. Managing demographic change Between 1970 and 2011. but also by the population’s age structure. The magnitude of such losses highlights the urgency of adaptation measures. air and water pollution. failing to implement ambitious universal education policies will adversely affect many essential pillars of human development for future generations. especially for poor people.

particularly among women and older workers. use of global commons. this focus can encourage zero-sum thinking. According to this view. multilevel and fragmented tapestry of institutions. technological and human resources as well as valuable solutions to critical world problems Overview | 7 . The challenge therefore is to ensure “coherent pluralism”—so that institutions at all levels work in a broadly coordinated fashion. International governance institutions can be held to account not just by member states. Among the areas meriting urgent attention are those related to trade. Addressing these demographic challenges will require raising educational attainment levels while expanding productive employment opportunities—by reducing unemployment. Indeed. and regulation of trade. international institutions need to be more representative. in which current education trends continue. transparent and accountable. health and climate change. public goods can be delivered by regional institutions. regional and global processes. which can avoid the polarization that sometimes slows progress in larger. joining in collective endeavours that enhance global welfare. Governance and partnerships for a new era The rise of the South is providing both opportunities and challenges for the formidable problems of an increasingly interconnected world. the decline in the dependency ratio under the fast track scenario is more than twice that under the base case scenario. but also to bring the substantial experience gained through their human development achievements and pragmatic policies in many of these areas. Many of the current institutions and principles for international governance were designed for a world very different from today’s. whereby countries engage in fair. In all of this. And they may become even more diverse: international cooperation is likely to involve an ever more complex web of bilateral. technological and human resources as well as valuable solutions to critical world problems. today’s systems of international governance are a mosaic of old structures and new arrangements. The South has promoted new arrangements and institutions such as bilateral and regional trade agreements and financial mechanisms. finance and migration have cross-border consequences. Ambitious education policies can enable medium and high HDI countries to curb projected increases in their dependency ratio. Responsible sovereignty also requires that states ensure the human rights security and safety of their citizenry. But increasing regional cooperation may have ­ disadvantages—adding to a complex. all intergovernmental processes would be invigorated by greater participation from the South. For low HDI countries. thus easing the demographic transition towards an ageing population. migration and climate change. and a fast track scenario. Networks of civil society now take advantage of new media and new communications technologies. One consequence is that they underrepresent the South. Some elements of global public goods can be provided at the regional level. all intergovernmental processes would be invigorated by greater participation from the South. but also by global civil society. Neither the North nor the newly influential South can sit out the regional or global dialogues needed to forge agreement on these issues. rule-based and accountable international cooperation. which can bring substantial financial. human rights. To survive. promoting labour productivity and increasing labour force participation. Civil society organizations have already influenced global transparency and rule setting on such issues as aid. Consequently. Challenges such as management of climate change. which can bring substantial financial. multilateral forums. The current context has profound implications for the provision of public goods. In some cases. sovereignty is not just a right. A better strategy would be “responsible sovereignty”. but effective provision usually requires considerable multilateral coordination and cooperation. Yet civil society organizations also face questions about their legitimacy and accountability and may take undesirable forms.two scenarios for 2010–2050: a base case scenario. but also a responsibility. in which the countries with the lowest initial levels embrace ambitious education targets. Countries of the South are in a position not just to contribute financial resources towards strengthening regional and multilateral processes. While appropriate in some cases. debt. governments are understandably concerned with preserving national sovereignty.

Nevertheless, the future legitimacy of international governance will depend on institutions’ capabilities to engage with citizen networks and communities.

Priorities for a new era
Through all this, the fundamental principles of human development remain critical. As ever, the aim is to expand choices and capabilities for all people, wherever they live. Many countries of the South have already demonstrated what can be done. But they have gone only part of the way. For the years ahead, this Report suggests five broad conclusions.

investment flows can leverage foreign markets in new ways that enhance development opportunities, such as by participating in regional and global value chains. Burgeoning South–South trade and investment in particular can lay the basis for shifting manufacturing capacity to other less developed regions and countries. Recent Chinese and Indian joint ventures and startup manufacturing investments in Africa could be a prelude to a much expanded force. International production networks provide opportunities to speed development by allowing countries to leap-frog to more sophisticated production modes.

Rising economic strength in the South must be matched by a full commitment to human development
Investments in human development are justified not only on moral grounds, but also because improved health, education and social welfare are key to success in a more competitive and dynamic world economy. In particular, these investments should target the poor— connecting them to markets and increasing their livelihood opportunities. Poverty is an injustice that can and should be remedied by determined action. Good policymaking also requires a focus on enhancing social capacities, not just individual capabilities. Individuals function within social institutions that can limit or enhance their development potential. Policies to change social norms that limit human potential, such as gender discrimination, early marriages and dowry requirements, open up opportunities for individuals to reach their full potential.

New institutions can facilitate regional integration and South–South relationships
New institutions and partnerships can help countries share knowledge, experiences and technology. This can be accompanied by new and stronger institutions to promote trade and investment and accelerate experience sharing across the South. One step would be to establish a new South Commission to bring a fresh vision of how the South’s diversity can be a force for solidarity.

Greater representation for the South and civil society can accelerate progress on major global challenges
The rise of the South is leading to a greater diversity of voice on the world stage. This presents an opportunity to build governance institutions that fully represent all constituencies and that would make productive use of this diversity in finding solutions to world problems. New guiding principles for international organizations are needed that incorporate the experience of the South. The emergence of the Group of 20 is an important step in this direction, but the countries of the South also need more equitable representation in the Bretton Woods institutions, the United Nations and other international bodies. Active civil society and social movements, both national and transnational, are using the media to amplify their calls for just and fair governance. The spread of movements and the increase in platforms for vocalizing key

Less developed countries can learn and benefit from the success of emerging economies of the South
The unprecedented accumulation of financial reserves provides an opportunity to accelerate broad-based progress

The unprecedented accumulation of financial reserves and sovereign wealth funds in both the North and South provides an opportunity to accelerate broad-based progress. A small portion of these funds should be dedicated to human development and poverty eradication. At the same time, South–South trade and

8 | Human Development Report 2013

messages and demands challenge governance institutions to adopt more-democratic and more-inclusive principles. More generally, a fair and less unequal world requires space for a multiplicity of voices and a system of public discourse.

progress in determining what is public and what is private will require strong, committed personal and institutional leadership. *    *    * This Report presents the contemporary global context and charts a path for policymakers and citizens to navigate the increasing interconnectedness of the world and to face the growing global challenges. It describes how the dynamics of power, voice and wealth in the world are changing—and identifies the new policies and institutions necessary to address these 21st century realities and promote human development with greater equity, sustainability and social integration. Progress in human development requires action and institutions at both the global and national levels. At the global level, institutional reforms and innovation are required to protect and provide global public goods. At the national level, state commitment to social justice is important, as is the understanding that onesize-fits-all technocratic policies are neither realistic nor effective given the diversity of national contexts, cultures and institutional conditions. Nevertheless, overarching principles such as social cohesion, state commitment to education, health and social protection, and openness to trade integration emerge as means of navigating towards sustainable and equitable human development.

The rise of the South presents new opportunities for generating a greater supply of public goods
A sustainable world requires a greater supply of global public goods. Global issues today are increasing in number and urgency, from mitigation of climate change and international economic and financial instability to the fight against terrorism and nuclear proliferation. They require a global response. Yet in many areas, international cooperation remains slow and at times dangerously hesitant. The rise of the South presents new opportunities for more effectively providing global public goods and for unlocking today’s many stalemated global issues. Publicness and privateness are in most cases not innate properties of a public good but social constructs and as such represent a policy choice. National governments can step in when there is underprovision at the national level. But when global challenges arise, international cooperation is necessary—and can happen only through the voluntary actions of many governments. Given the many pressing challenges,

The rise of the South presents new opportunities for more effectively providing global public goods and for unlocking today’s many stalemated global issues

Overview | 9

“Across the globe, people are uniting in a common struggle: to participate freely in the events and processes that shape their lives.”
Mahbub ul Haq

Introduction
When developed economies stopped growing in the 2008–2009 financial crisis but developing economies kept on growing, the world took notice.1 The rise of the South, seen within the developing world as an overdue global rebalancing, has been much commented on since. This discussion has typically focused narrowly on gross domestic product (GDP) and trade growth in a few large countries. Yet there are broader dynamics at play, involving many more countries and deeper trends, with potentially far-reaching implications for people’s lives, for social equity and for democratic governance at the local and global levels. As this Report shows, the rise of the South is both the result of continual human development investments and achievements and an opportunity for still greater human progress for the world as a whole. Making that progress a reality will require informed and enlightened global and national policymaking, drawing on the policy lessons analysed in this Report.
The rise of the South is unprecedented in its speed and scale. Never in history have the living conditions and prospects of so many people changed so dramatically and so fast. Great Britain, where the Industrial Revolution originated, took 150 years to double output per capita; the United States, which industrialized later, took 50 years.2 Both countries had a population below 10 million when they began to industrialize. In contrast, the current economic takeoffs in China and India began with about 1  billion people in each country and doubled output per capita in less than 20 years—an economic force affecting a hundred times as many people as the Industrial Revolution did.3 The rise of the South must be understood as the story of a dramatic expansion of individual capabilities and sustained human development progress in the countries that are home to the vast majority of the world’s people. When dozens of countries and billions of people move up the development ladder, as they are doing today, it has a direct impact on wealth creation and broader human progress in all countries and regions of the world. There are new opportunities for catch-up for less developed countries and for creative policy initiatives that could benefit the most advanced economies as well. A close look at the diverse pathways that successful developing countries have pursued enriches the menu of policy options for all countries and regions while providing insights into values and world views that can inform future development cooperation and constructive responses to the most severe global challenges. The goal, as always, is to accelerate, wherever possible, broad-based progress that raises standards and expands people’s choices in all countries and communities in all key dimensions of human development, from health and education and livelihoods to the personal freedom to control and improve one’s own life. Transforming the South requires changing the rules that underpin global relationships. Most multilateral organizations were designed to reflect an international order newly emerging from the Second World War. That world view no longer resonates with the 21st century rebalancing of global demographics, wealth and geopolitical influence. The growing policy-­ shaping influence of the South is visible in the international response to the 2008 financial crisis. In the past, financial decisions were made by the major industrial powers alone, as in the 1985 Plaza Accord. This time, a more extensive group, the Group of 20 (G20), which includes the largest developing economies, played a key role. People in the South are also increasingly taking leadership positions in long-established international organizations.4 These are just preliminary signs of change in international institutions and of the possibility that the new actors in the South may help resume efforts to provide better global public goods. Indeed, the rise of the South adds to the urgency with which governments and international organizations will need to confront challenges that are likely to loom large in the future: equity in opportunities, civic engagement in governance, environmental sustainability and the demographic bulge, to name a few. The next sections elaborate on specific features of the rise of the South.
Introduction | 11

The number of countries with a Human Development Index (HDI) value below the 25th percentile in 1990 dropped from 33 to 30 between 1990 and 2000 and was halved from 30 to 15 between 2000 and 2012 (figure 1). Lao PDR and Viet Nam in East Asia and the Pacific.1 0. telecommunications and civic engagement in national governance.439 to <0. education and income more in the past decade than in the preceding one. more than 500 million people have been lifted out of poverty in China alone. no country had a lower HDI value in 2012 than in 2000. almost all countries improved their human development status. education.1 HD I1 99 0= 0. Chile Mexico Malaysia Turkey Brazil Tunisia Thailand Mauritius China Indonesia Viet Nam India Lao PDR Bangladesh Uganda Rwanda Ghana 0.9 Korea.7 0. The human development consequences have been profound: the proportion of people living in extreme poverty fell from 43. Global rebalancing For the first time in 150 years. 120 100 80 60 33 43 59 HDI ≥ 0. transportation. At the upper end of the distribution.439 1990 2000 2012 Note: Thresholds are the 25th.615 to <0. the combined output of the developing world’s three 12 | Human Development Report 2013 .615 33 40 20 0 33 30 15 HDI <0. the number of countries with an HDI value above the 75th percentile rose from 33 to 43 between 1990 and 2000 and from 43 to 59 between 2000 and 2012. Of 132 countries with a complete data series.3 HD I2 01 2 0. 2012 0. China. Tunisia in the Arab States. Source: HDRO.6 This includes countries as diverse as Ghana. Overall. Chile and Mexico in Latin America and the Caribbean (figure 2). Source: HDRO calculations. Blue and grey markers indicate countries with significantly larger than predicted increases in HDI value between 1990 and 2012 given their HDI value in 1990.4% in 2008. Figure 2 More than 40 countries of the South had greater gains on the HDI between 1990 and 2012 than would have been predicted from their previous performance on the HDI HDI. Progress was particularly rapid in more than 40 countries of the South.5 0. only 2 had a lower HDI value in 2012 than in 1990 (Lesotho and Zimbabwe). Rep.5 Countries at low levels of human development accelerated their achievements in health. Bangladesh and India in South Asia. and Brazil.1% in 1990 to 22. Rwanda and Uganda in Sub-Saharan Africa. whose increases in HDI value were significantly larger than predicted for countries that were at a similar level of HDI value in 1990.731 33 36 33 HDI 0.5 0. 1990 Highlighted 18 Big improvers Others Note: Countries above the 45 degree line had a higher HDI value in 2012 than in 1990. These countries were identified based on residuals obtained from a regression of the change in log of HDI between 2012 and 1990 on the log of HDI in 1990.7 0.731 30 HDI 15 0. Countries that are labelled are a selected group of rapid HDI improvers that are discussed in greater detail in chapter 3. when 18 countries had a lower HDI value in 2000 than in 1990.9 HDI. The picture is more mixed in the middle quartiles of the HDI.3 0. in contrast to the prior decade. Between 1990 and 2012. 50th and 75th percentiles of HDI values for 132 countries in 1990.Figure 1 Acceleration of growth on the HDI Number of countries Broad-based progress The 21st century transformation of the South has been accompanied by major advances in public health.

This major increase in share of economic output would not mean much in human development terms. China and India have all dramatically reduced the proportion of their people who are income poor—Brazil from 17.57 billion people.11 a measure of both Today. up from 10% in 1950 Share of global output (%) 60 PROJECTION 50 40 30 20 10 0 1820 1860 1900 Brazil. The first Millennium Development Goal of halving the proportion of people living on less than $1.7% in 2010. by 2050 Brazil China and India will together account for 40% of global output (figure 3). China and India 1940 1980 2010 2050 Canada. China. Indonesia.9 As recently as 2005. France.10 Broader development challenges. the United Kingdom and the United States. South Africa and Turkey—now equals the GDP of the United States. Brazil. up from about a third in 1990 Brazil. if it had not been accompanied by an unprecedented reduction in deprivation and expansion of human capabilities.2% in 1990 to 13. Germany. Brazil. An estimated 1. while the six traditional economic leaders of the North accounted for roughly half.1% in 2009. Italy. far surpassing the projected combined production of today’s Group of Seven bloc. According to projections in this Report. In 1950. India. or more than 30% of the population of the 104 countries studied for this Report. China and India combined are projected to account for 40% of global output by 2050. however. Introduction | 13 . the combined economic weight of those eight Figure 3 countries was barely half that of the United States. Italy.2% of the population in 1990 to 6. This is primarily because of the success of some of the most populous countries in eradicating extreme poverty: Brazil.8 Today.7 This represents a dramatic rebalancing of global economic power. Source: HDRO interpolation of historical data from Maddison (2010) and projections based on Pardee Center for International Futures (2013). have not diminished. Mexico. the United Kingdom and the United States Note: Output is measured in 1990 purchasing power parity dollars. China from 60. up from about a third in 1990. China and India—is about equal to the combined GDP of the long-­ standing industrial powers of the North—Canada.1% in 2008 and India from 49. The combined GDP of eight major developing countries alone—Argentina.25 a day relative to 1990 has been met three years before the target date. Germany.4% in 1990 to 32. the South as a whole produces about half of world economic output. still by far the world’s biggest national economy. live in multidimensional poverty. China and India together accounted for only 10% of the world economy.leading economies—Brazil. however. the South as a whole produces about half of world economic output. France.

Massive expansion of the middle class The middle class in the South is growing rapidly in size.032 .525 1. Between 1990 and 2010. and South Asia in education. the share of the world’s people older than 15 who lack formal schooling is projected to shrink from 12% in 2010 to 3% in 2050.13 The Asia– Pacific Region will host about two-thirds of the world’s middle class by 2030. has seen income inequality fall since 2000 the number and the intensity of over­ lapping human deprivations in health. almost a quarter of HDI value. education and standard of living. This is creating new business models.181 . the South’s share of the global middle class population expanded from 26% to 58%. with the South home to three-fifths of the 1 billion households earning more than $20.313 2030 World: 4. And income inequality is on the rise in many countries. Furthermore. Assuming a robust increase in school enrolment rates. The rise of the South is also diffusing technology through new models of extensive coverage with low margins. Sub-Saharan Africa has the most inequality in health. which serve lower income households and reach a large number of consumers in markets that have weak support infrastructure. Based on calculations for the Inequality-adjusted HDI for 132 countries in 2012. Within Asia. Central and South America about 10% and Sub-Saharan Africa 2% (figure 4).884 billion . has seen income inequality fall since 2000 but still has the most unequal distribution of all regions. in contrast to overall global trends. companies and international institutions in the South. the population living in multidimensional poverty exceeds that living in income poverty.14 The continued expansion of the middle class is certain to have a profound impact on the world economy. China and India will account for more than 75% of the middle class as well as its share of total consumption.845 billion .680 Europe Central and South America Asia–Paci c Middle East and North Africa North America Sub-Saharan Africa Note: The middle class includes people earning or spending $10–$100 a day (in 2005 purchasing power parity terms). income and expectations. Inequality-­ adjusted HDI trends for 66 countries show that overall inequality declined only marginally. But South−South interactions have enabled companies in the South to adapt and innovate with products and processes that are better suited to local needs. annual consumption in emerging market economies will rise to $30 trillion. giving people from everywhere 14 | Human Development Report 2013 .165 .Latin America.322 .338 .234 . Another estimate is that by 2025.664 .107 .251 . For many of the rapidly growing countries of the South.105 . is lost to inequality. The world is also becoming more educated. and the share with secondary or tertiary education will climb from 44% in 2010 to 64% in 2050. By 2030. from $12 trillion in 2010. The South is now emerging alongside the North as a breeding ground for technical innovation and creative entrepreneurship. as companies develop products that can reach customers with lower disposable incomes. more than 80% of the world’s middle class is projected to be residing in the South and to account for 70% of total consumption expenditure.228 2020 World: 3. Between 1990 and 2005. The sheer number of people in the South— the billions of consumers and citizens— multiplies the global human development consequences of actions by governments.740 3.000 a year.333 . the digital divide is rapidly narrowing.057 .703 . 23%. Source: Brookings Institution 2012.12 Latin America. In North−South trade the newly industrializing economies have built capabilities to efficiently manufacture complex products for developed country markets.249 billion . in contrast to overall global trends. Figure 4 The middle class in the South is projected to continue to grow Middle class population (billions) 2009 World: 1. because declining inequality in health and education was offset by rising inequality in income.

as tourists and as migrants. South–South foreign investment now accounts for 30%–60% of all outside investment in the least developed countries. a dramatic increase over the estimated The rapid expansion of educated people in much of the South adds to the urgency of job creation on a mass scale The exponential rise in Internet use in the South has been most notable over the past decade Internet users (millions) South 1. with 75% of them expected to be intraregional. Countries of the South that experience low dependency rates in the future can create a “demographic dividend” only if the increase in the labour force is matched by equally rapid expansion of employment opportunities.16 There has been an exponential rise in the number of people in the South with access to the world wide web (Internet). The global trade to GDP ratio.comparable access to information.15 Nearly half of remittances sent home by emigrants from the South come from workers living in other developing countries.6 billion tourist arrivals globally. or more than 215  million people—a three-fold increase since 1960. the consequences are likely to include rising civil unrest. from Ugandan banana exporters to shrimp farmers on the Mekong River. The rapid expansion in the educated population in much of the South adds to the urgency of job creation on a mass scale. as business professionals. Between 2000 and 2010. In 2010.17 Interdependence in commerce is allowing more people to participate in the global marketplace. a conventional measure of trade integration. The takeoff has been especially notable in the past decade (figure 5).500 1. especially through increasingly affordable mobile broadband Internet.200 900 North 600 300 0 1990 Source: World Bank 2012a.3  billion connections among “friends”. travel and telecommunication exchanges are expanding worldwide at an unprecedented pace. Figure 5 Countries of the South are also hosting more tourists than ever from other developing countries: by 2020. as demonstrated by the youth-led insurrections of the Arab Spring. 1994 1998 2002 2006 2011 Introduction | 15 . reached 22% in 1913. People are moving between countries in numbers never seen before. the online social networking website Facebook recorded 1 billion monthly active users. If enough decent jobs are not available to meet this demographic demand. The share of South– South trade in world commerce has more than tripled over the past three decades to 25%. four of the five countries with the greatest number of Facebook users are in the South: Brazil. average annual growth in Internet use surpassed 30% in around 60 developing countries with a population of 1 million or more. Unprecedented connectedness Trade. first-generation immigrants accounted for nearly 3% of the world’s population. Indonesia and Mexico. there will be nearly 1. In September 2012. with 140. India.

2% in 1800.18 Today the ratio exceeds 56%.19 At least 15 developing countries have substantial trading relationships with more than 100 trade partners as both exporters and importers, up from about 6 in 1996 (figure 6). The South now accounts for half of global trade flows, up from barely a quarter 30 years ago. These increasing trade connections are deepening even basis, faster “horizontally”, on a South–South ­ than on the traditional North–South axis. A substantial share of South−South trade continues to be driven by demand in the North, but the opposite is also true: developing countries are major importers from the North. Since 2007, for example, US exports to established partners in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have risen 20%, but US exports to
Figure 6

Latin America and the Caribbean and China have risen more than 50%. The South needs the North, but, increasingly, the North also needs the South. Countries of the South are also emerging as natural hubs for absorbing technologies and developing new products. There is now greater potential for human development thanks to technology transfer from the South. Technology transfer from the North often requires costly adaptation due to differences in absorptive capacity. Technological transfer from the South has been more amenable to direct adoption. 20 And technological adaptation by the South has also led to new kinds of innovation with immediate human development benefits. Take the uses to which Africans are putting affordable Asian-built

At least 15 developing countries have substantial trading relationships with more than 100 trade partners as both exporters and importers
1995–1996 Number of export markets Number of export markets 2010–2011

200

200
Thailand Turkey

China India Malaysia Indonesia

175
China India Brazil

175

Brazil

150
Malaysia

Thailand

150

South Africa Ukraine Egypt Pakistan

Viet Nam

125

Turkey

125

United Arab Emirates Morocco Mexico

100

100

75

75

50

50

25

25

0 0 50 100 150 200
Number of import markets

0 0 50 100 150 200
Number of import markets Others

Developing countries with more than 100 trade partners as both importers and exporters
Note: Values are averages for 1995 and 1996 and for 2010 and 2011. Includes only countries with bilateral trade exceeding $1.5 million in 1995–1996 and $2 million in 2010–2011. Source: UNSD 2012.

16 | Human Development Report 2013

mobile phones: cellular banking is cheaper and easier than opening a traditional bank account, farmers can obtain weather reports and check grain prices and entrepreneurs can provide business services through mobile phone kiosks. These and other transformations multiply the possibilities of what people can do with technology: participating in decisions that affect their lives; gaining quick and low-cost access to information; producing cheaper, often generic medicines, better seeds and new crop varieties; and generating new employment and export opportunities. These new technologies are connecting people in formerly isolated and marginalized rural communities and in poor urban neighbourhoods. They also give them access to valuable tools, resources and information and enable them to more actively participate in the wider national and even global society.

Pragmatic development policies
The rise of the South spans diverse country experiences, showing that there are multiple ways to achieve and sustain human development. Countries were pragmatic in adopting policies suited to their unique circumstances: for example, between 1979 and 1989, no fewer than 40% of China’s national regulations were deemed experimental.21 There were broadly shared common approaches as well. Most fast-developing countries of the South opened up to foreign trade, investment and technologies. But that opening alone did not guarantee success. They also invested in their own human development capabilities, strengthened domestic institutions and built new areas of comparative advantage. The critical combination of external openness with internal preparedness allowed countries to prosper in the global marketplace, with positive human development outcomes for the population at large. Active government leadership was crucial in accelerating economic progress and minimizing social conflict. Growth created the needed fiscal space for investment in health and education and paved the way for a virtuous synergy between economic and social policy. Well known innovative programmes in Brazil, India and Mexico—conditional cash transfer programmes and rural employment guarantee

programmes—exemplify active interest in fostering a more equitable distribution of economic and social opportunities. China has also stressed the importance of such an approach in its strategic pursuit of a “harmonious society”. Elements of these programmes have been emulated by many other countries in the South. A common emphasis of these social initiatives has been to promote equity and social integration, aspects that were underappreciated in past development models but are proving to be essential elements of any sustainable path for human progress. Ruling elites are increasingly recognizing that social and economic progress can profoundly influence their own legitimacy. Investments in social welfare and public goods have become building blocks for long-term development. These exemplary ­ initiatives— which combine health, education and economic policies in a broader agenda of equity, empowerment and participation—highlight the importance of supporting social justice not only on moral grounds, but also as a crucial means of advancing human development.

New partners for development
The South is now in a position to influence, even reshape, old models of development cooperation with augmented resources and home-grown lessons, but it also exerts new competitive pressures on other aspects of bilateral cooperation. The rise of the South is spurring innovation in bilateral partnership and regional cooperation, resulting in greater options within the South for concessional finance, infrastructural investment and technology transfer. The growing assistance from the South is often without explicit conditions on economic policy or approaches to governance. The development emphasis on improved infrastructure, for example, has been rediscovered because of the domestic experience and lessons of some emerging economies. Over the past decade, nearly half of financing for infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa was provided by governments and regional funds from elsewhere in the South.22 Furthermore, the extraordinary increase in capital accumulation in the fastest growing economies of the South—exemplified most
The South is now in a position to influence old models of development cooperation with augmented resources and home-grown lessons, but it also exerts new competitive pressures on other aspects of bilateral cooperation

Introduction | 17

New development partnerships have opened opportunities for bilateral trade and investment exchanges, sustaining the rise of the South

notably by the surge in foreign exchange reserves—represents a largely untapped store ­ of development capital. Three-quarters of the increase in foreign exchange reserves between 2000 and 2011 was accumulated by countries of the South, partly as self-insurance against future financial downturns and crises (figure 7). As early as 1995, the United Nations Development Programme identified 23 developing countries as being pivotal to South– South cooperation. Over the past decade, those countries have accelerated their engagement with other developing countries.23 Outside the OECD, Brazil, China and India are the three largest donors.24 Other countries such as Malaysia, Thailand and Turkey are also important in regional development. New development partnerships, fashioned on “win-win” for all parties, have supported development efforts and opened opportunities for bilateral trade and investment exchanges, sustaining the rise of the South. In the process, international regimes are realigning, and international organizations are reorienting to the shifts in global economic power due to the rise of the South. *    *    * This Report examines in greater detail many aspects of the rise of the South and their implications for human development. Chapter 1 takes stock of the current status of human development globally and regionally, with an emphasis on trends, challenges and advances in such key interrelated areas as poverty, inequality, social integration and human security. Chapter 2 shows how countries of the South are emerging as significant players in the world economy, becoming both drivers of growth and catalysts for change in other developing

Figure 7 Official foreign exchange reserves by country group
Official foreign exchange reserves ($ trillions)

12 10 8 6 4 2

World total: $10.18 trillion

EMERGING ECONOMIES

ADVANCED ECONOMIES

0 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011a

a.Preliminary third-quarter data. Note: The classification of countries follows that used by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); it includes 34 advanced economies and 110 emerging and developing economies that report to the IMF’s Currency Composition of Official Foreign Reserves database. Source: Grabel 2013.

countries, and identifies some of the emerging challenges. Chapter 3 looks at the policies and strategies that have underpinned progress in some of the more successful countries of the South. Chapter 4 asks two basic questions: can this progress be sustained, and what are likely to be the future challenges to sustaining human development? Chapter 5 looks at prospects for policies and principles for a new framework of global and regional governance that fully represents and responds to the rise of the South in the long-term interests of the South and North alike. As the Report shows, the increasingly complex challenges of the 21st century require new partnerships and new approaches that reflect the realities of this rapidly changing world.

18 | Human Development Report 2013

” John Maynard Keynes . Social Justice and Individual Liberty.“The political problem of mankind is to combine three things: Economic Efficiency.

the quality of the labour force and the state of scientific research and innovation for years to come (box 1. economic stagnation reduces the tax revenues that governments need to finance social services and public goods. “The boom. but are also undermining the human development prospects of millions of other people across the world. however. a fiscally neutral change in the composition of government revenues and expenditures designed to foster employment and promote human development could create 1.8 As John Maynard Keynes put it succinctly nearly 75 years ago. The first Human Development Report in 1990 laid out a vision of economic and social progress that is fundamentally about people enlarging their choices and capabilities. The world has known similar crises: in Europe and the United States in the 1930s. Fiscal consolidation has already had contractionary effects on private domestic demand and gross domestic product (GDP)6 while weakening economic conditions and increasing un­ employment. Governments are imposing austerity programmes because of a legitimate concern about the sustainability of sovereign debt. the global economic recession would have been deeper. with some notable exceptions. In 2012. The state of human development From Brazil to South Africa to India to China. more than the GDP of the world’s 50 poorest countries Chapter 1  The state of human development | 21 . This could put progress in human development on a lower trajectory for some time (box 1. Struggling to emerge from a debt crisis and large budget deficits.3 Nevertheless. eroding the human development and social welfare foundations that enable economies to grow.2). there has been substantial progress: many developing economies continue to grow rapidly and raise standards of human development. led by China and India. with real concern that in an interconnected world the crisis in the North may slow developing countries’ progress. for many there is ample scope for reprioritization. In industrialized countries.8–2. not the slump. But there is a risk that short-term measures will cause longterm damage. there are signs of contagion. The South now accounts for almost a third of world output1 and consumption. Much of this damage is avoidable. Moreover. education and other public services are likely to impair the health of the population.1).5 There is also evidence that deploying drastic austerity programmes too quickly can deepen and prolong recessions. military spending worldwide exceeded $1.1 million jobs in 33 advanced economies over the next year or two. even the most vigorous economies of the South began to be affected by the financial problems of the North.10 While countries have different degrees of freedom to adjust their spending priorities. But this time around. the crisis is again happening in the heart of Europe. the largest developing countries have become major drivers of the global economy. well into the second decade of the 21st century. Living standards are declining for many people in the developed world. many developed countries are imposing severe austerity programmes that are not only causing hardship for their own citizens. is the right time for austerity. According to the International Labour Organization. Since then. democracies to flourish and societies to be less unequal and less vulnerable to shocks.2 Without the robust growth in these economies.”9 It is also vital to consider not just the quantity of public expenditure.4 leading to hardship and exacerbating economic contractions. governments are introducing harsh austerity measures that reduce the government’s welfare role and cut back on spending and public services.7 Rollbacks of health. For instance. Several countries have seen major street demonstrations and general disillusionment with politicians and economic management as a result. but also its composition and how it can be changed. Historical evidence indicates that the best time to cut deficits is after economic growth has taken off.1.4  trillion in 2010. in Latin America in the 1980s and in Asia in the 1990s. The rise of the South is a feature of a rapidly changing world.

Continuing demand from the South has also helped sustain many developing country exports. especially countries where girls lack secondary education. Consolidation through enhanced efficiency and reduced subsidies on fossil fuels. Almost universally. Stiglitz 2012. many developing countries continue to invest in long-term human development. Sub-Saharan Africa saw a partial reversal in the progress towards demographic transition. constrained in their use of policy instruments. women with higher levels of education have fewer children. This is partly because they have been more pragmatic. made as part of structural adjustment programmes in the 1980s.Box 1. macroeconomics and human development The rising income inequality in the United States and some European countries highlights fairness in how incomes are distributed and who benefits from growth.12 At the same time. HM Treasury 2010. Between 1980 and 1986. it need not involve cuts in welfare services. In the 1980s. transition and still have high overall fertility rates. despite considerable pressure from civil society. cannot use monetary policies to devalue (or inflate) their way out of a crisis. After transitory setbacks following the 2008 crisis. though with limited impact on policies so far. Block 2013.1 Fairness. Cuts in education not only limit human capabilities. along with new financial instruments and lax regulation. If economies keep contracting. caused a bubble that eventually led to the current financial crisis. and a large share of the workforce has had no significant increase in real wages over the last few decades. but also affect the age structure of the population years later because of their impact on birth rates. which. In the quest for full employment. when public investment is at a historic low. enrolment in primary education dropped from 79% to 73% for the region as a whole (falling in 16 countries and rising in 17). The call for austerity measures is not limited to countries in the euro area. Cutting spending reduces aggregate demand. Sen 2012. Rose 1995. taking countercyclical measures and postponing debt reduction for more appropriate times. Nayyar 2012. while the richest deciles have seen a substantial increase in income. causing average female combined primary and secondary gross enrolment rates to increase more slowly than in the period before the structural adjustment programmes. coupled with high income inequality. could leave social spending relatively unaffected. successive rounds of debt reduction will do little to further debt sustainability. It is surprising that in democracies. particularly in education. This call for austerity comes Source: Atkinson 2011. makes it challenging to revive the economy and put people back to work. with real expenditure per capita on education falling nearly 50% on average. The United Kingdom plans to reduce public investment by about 2% of GDP under the current austerity programme. For instance. Increasing inequality has been accompanied by demands by many of the better-­ off for smaller government and fiscal restraint: the well-off have not only benefited disproportionately from earlier growth. African and Latin American countries have resumed their upward trajectories of human development and 22 | Human Development Report 2013 growth. Cutting social spending to reduce public debt can have long-term effects. 2012. combined. for instance. offsetting the effects of sluggish economic activity in the North. Education reduces fertility rates by enhancing information. In the United States (and other industrialized countries) this was achieved through low interest rates. tend to have higher fertility rates. These concerns are entering the mainstream political discourse in developed countries. government agendas are dominated by austerity programmes rather than social protection programmes. Countries with lower levels of education. Countries in the euro area. A continued push for reduced government and social expenditures may well worsen the prospects for recovery and growth. Unemployment in developed countries is at its highest level in years. Even where fiscal consolidation is necessary. Box 1. reduced aggregate demand has to be compensated for.2 Short-term cuts have long-term consequences: rising fertility rates in Africa Why did fertility rates rise between 1970 and 1990 in many Sub-Saharan African countries despite falling in every other region? The evolution of fertility rates appears to be associated with social expenditure cuts. changing the incentives for behaviour and empowering people to better pursue their own preferences. This effect is particularly strong in countries that are early in their demographic Source: Lutz and KC 2013. net public investment in the United Kingdom for fiscal year 2011/2012 is less than 2% of GDP. They recognize a clear positive correlation between past public investment in social and physical infrastructure and progress . but also appear committed to protecting their gains. Macroeconomic policies can have large consequences for human development.11 The countries of the South have shown greater resilience in the face of the current global economic crisis. The reduced education expenditures had a negative impact on female education. which.

The HDI in 2012 reveals much progress.8 years). most of the disparity arises from substantial differences in income per capita (with a ratio of 70. the main driver is differences in income per capita. over the past few decades. followed by the Arab States. about equal to the current years of schooling among adults in high HDI countries (8.741). Progress of nations Every Human Development Report has monitored human progress. countries across the world have been converging towards higher levels of human development. and mean years of schooling (with a ratio of 4. Life expectancy in very high HDI countries is a third higher than in low HDI countries. notably through the HDI.3).13 Governments in the South have also appreciated that sustainable progress must be based on social integration.694. involving accelerated human development among countries with lower HDI values. Overall.475). Europe and Central Asia had the highest HDI value (0. but the link is not automatic. Over the past decades. mean years of schooling and income. have supported aspects of human development underappreciated in past development models by introducing cash transfer programmes and right-to-work programmes. followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (0. most low HDI countries have achieved or are advancing towards full enrolment in elementary school and more than 50% enrolment in secondary school. One way of assessing disparities within country groups is to compare the ratio of the highest to the lowest HDI values among countries in the group. educational attainment. Yet progress requires more than average improvement in HDI value.on the Human Development Index (HDI). with a ratio of 10. The pace of progress on the HDI has been fastest in countries in the low and medium human development categories. growth may have little impact on other important human development priorities such as participation and empowerment. which better reflect changing education opportunities in developing countries. There are large disparities in achievements within HDI groups and regions.1). It will be neither desirable nor sustainable if increases in HDI value are accompanied by rising in­ equality in income.5 years of school. All HDI groups and There is a clear positive correlation between past public investment in social and physical infrastructure and progress on the Human Development Index Chapter 1  The state of human development | 23 .0). and command over the resources needed for a decent living. Growth may generate resources to invest in health and education. However. HDI values for 2012 are presented in statistical table 1. Overall. the global average HDI value was 0. followed by South Asia (0. Other indices have delved into inequality. for example. and to a lesser extent Latin America and the Caribbean. In Sub-Saharan Africa. many countries of the South have made substantial strides in HDI performance.7. Brazil and India.114) and mean years of schooling (with a ratio of 7. In 2012.558). and Latin America and the Caribbean. Overall. but also making large gains in health and education (discussed in greater detail later in the chapter). the disparities also arise primarily from differences in income per capita. not only boosting economic growth and reducing poverty. Now more than ever. unsustainable patterns of consumption. present a much more hopeful picture: the average incoming elementary school student in a low HDI country is expected to complete 8. There are large differences across HDI groups and regions in the components of the HDI— life expectancy. Sub-Saharan Africa had the lowest HDI value (0. a composite measure that includes indicators along three dimensions: life expectancy. indicators are needed to capture these dimensions as well as the environmental sustainability of development pathways. Average gross national income (GNI) per capita in very high HDI countries is more than 20 times that in low HDI countries (table 1. This is good news. poverty and gender deficits. Moreover. the last decade has seen greater convergence in HDI values. In the Arab States.8).771). This ratio is highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. In South Asia. Among developing regions. while average years of schooling among adults over 25 are nearly three times greater in very high HDI countries than in low HDI countries. This broad-based achievement is notable because income growth does not necessarily translate into gains in other aspects of human development. South Asia. high military spending and low social cohesion (box 1. expected years of schooling.

in any case.3 What is it like to be a human being? Almost half a century ago. must also include representing the interest of the people who are not here to express their concerns in their own voice. in dialogue with others. and mass movements elsewhere in the world. Nobel Laureate in Economics The recognition of complexity has other important implications as well. and through that advancing fairness and justice in the world. The Human Development Reports can continue to contribute to this broadening through explication as well as presenting tables of relevant information. with faster progress in low and medium HDI countries. the difficult problem of assessing the richness of human lives. for the sake of convenience. Between 2000 and 2012. The cutting edge of the human development approach is also based on a distinction­ —but of a rather different kind from Nagel’s basic epistemological contrast.5 years between 1990 and 2000. is matched by the epistemic importance of people expressing themselves. only for current wellbeing and freedom)—but it certainly is a matter of making sure that the discussions of human development include those other concerns. and only marginally about bats. but we are also capable of thinking and talking about the many-­ sided nature of our lives and those of others—today and tomorrow— in ways that may not be readily available to bats. which is also an inescapable part of what has come to be called “the human development approach. Among other points. The dialogic responsibilities.1 years in very high HDI countries. while Sub-Saharan Africa saw more rapid progress in the last decade. partly because we should not be side-tracked into changing the question: that was the central point that moved Mahbub ul Haq’s bold initiative to supplement—and to some extent supplant—GDP. no matter how judicious is the selection of variables to be included. the much easier exercise of keeping track of incomes and other external resources that persons—or nations—happen to have. Another important influence on the HDI.1 years. and their connection with fairness and justice in the world. Nagel expressed deep scepticism about the temptation of observational scientists to identify the experience of being a bat—or similarly. But human beings do have the capacity to think about others. Amartya Sen. use many simple indicators of human development. life expectancy stagnated at 49. The political significance of such initiatives as the so-called Arab Spring. The human development approach is a major advance in the difficult exercise of understanding the successes and deprivations of human lives. Only the wearer may know where the shoe pinches. however. when properly appreciated across the lines of governance. on what ails their lives and what injustices they want to remove.Box 1. and the choice of the procedure of weighting. on the one hand. The crucial role of public reasoning. Assessing the quality of life is a much more complex exercise than what can be captured through only one number. The approach that Mahbub ul Haq pioneered through the series of Human Development Reports which began in 1990 is that between. the philosopher Thomas Nagel published a famous paper called “What Is It Like to Be a Bat?” The question I want to ask is: what is it like to be a human being? As it happens. Differences across countries are even wider. based on only three variables with a very simple rule for weighting them—but the quest cannot end there. The importance of various elements in evaluating well-being and freedom of people can be adequately appreciated and assessed only through persistent dialogue among the population. But human well-being and freedom. which the present Human Development Report particularly emphasizes.1 years in Sierra Leone and a high of 83. and their lives. The sense of being a bat or a human can hardly be seen as just having certain twitches in the brain and of the body. regions saw notable improvement in all HDI components. including the freedoms that human beings have reason to value.1 years in low HDI countries and 80. We should not spurn workable and useful shortcuts—the HDI may tell us a lot more about human quality of life than does the GDP—but nor should we be entirely satisfied with the immediate gain captured in these shortcuts in a world of continuous practice. as many people are tempted to do. and the art of responsible and accountable politics is to broaden dialogues from narrowly self-centred concerns to the broader social understanding of the importance of the needs and freedoms of people in the future as well as today. East Asia and the Pacific and South Asia saw continuing progress from earlier decades. and one of the most sensitive indicators of .” We may. This is not a matter of simply including those concerns within one single indicator—for example. Tom Nagel’s insightful paper in The Philosophical Review was also really about human beings. In SubSaharan Africa. it increased 5. Human development cannot be indifferent to future generations just because they are not here—yet. but pinchavoiding arrangements cannot be effectively undertaken without giving voice to the people and giving them extensive opportunities for public discussion. There is much to discuss—with each other and with the public servants that make policy. with a low of 48. cannot be reduced simply to the measurement of GDP and its growth rate. and in appreciating the importance of reflection and dialogue.5 years. One of the principal components of the HDI is life expectancy. The intrinsic complexity of human development is important to acknowledge. by overcrowding the already heavily loaded HDI (which stands. In 2012. We may be much like bats in not being readily accessible to the measuring rod of the impatient observational scientist. Being a human being is both like being a bat and very unlike it. a result of the HIV and AIDS pandemic. with wide differences 24 | Human Development Report 2013 across HDI groups: 59. a human being—with the associated physical phenomena in the brain and elsewhere in the body that are within easy reach of outside inspection. and on the other. But along with that came a more difficult point. The convergence in HDI values has become more pronounced in the last decade. arises partly from the recognition of this complexity. with an impact on the making of public policy. Gross domestic product (GDP) is much easier to see and measure than the quality of human life that people have.6 years in Japan. such as the HDI. The complexity of the former cannot be resolved by the easier tractability of the latter (tempting though it may be to do just that). average life expectancy was 70.

the most recent year for which subnational data are available.4 69. the highest HDI value in 2000.5 8.17 Income and human development Another essential component of human development and the HDI is command over resources.343 2.874 12. The range in human development is also wide in some developing countries. for example.47).5 74.7 66.000 live births).1 HDI and components.3 4.633 10. though spread unevenly across HDI groups.1 70.466 0.1 11.6 11. though in varying degrees (figure 1.694 80. as measured by income per capita. Low HDI countries had the highest rate (110 deaths per 1.7 71. national averages hide large variations in human experience.7 4. for example. The HDI value for residents of Latin American origin was close to 0. The United States. and Tibet at the bottom (0.70 in 2010–2011.63). The highest average annual growth in income per capita was recorded in China and Equatorial Guinea.5 16.300 3.4 7.8 13.0 72.475 71.7 10. high HDI countries (18) and very high HDI countries (6). Poor child health can permanently damage a child’s cognitive development and later affect labour productivity as an adult. by region and HDI group.000 live births. HDI comparisons are typically made between countries in the North and the South.184 Note: Data are weighted by population and calculated based on HDI values for 187 countries.7 10.9 6.5 11.2 7.4 8. Nevertheless. China has similar. with Shanghai at the top (0. ranking it third globally.640 0.3 13. See statistical table 1 for detailed data sources. the global under-five mortality rate was 55 deaths per 1.75. while the HDI value for African-Americans was close to 0.92).652 0.317 6. while the lowest was in Manari in the state of Pernambuco (0. human well-being.Table 1. is child survival.8 6. both over 9%. In Brazil. PPP is purchasing power parity. if less marked.2 9.47. and wide disparities remain within countries of both the North and the South. 2012 Gross national income per capita (2005 PPP $) Region and HDI group Region Arab States East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa HDI group Very high human development High human development Medium human development Low human development World HDI Life expectancy at birth (years) Mean years of schooling (years) Expected years of schooling (years) 0. One of the most striking achievements has been in Sub-Saharan Africa.9 59.391 11.010 0. followed by medium HDI countries (42).905 0.91).7 13. was in São Caetano do Sul in the state of São Paulo (0.2 54. had an HDI value of 0.1). Only 12 countries surpassed 4% growth.15 But the average HDI value for an African-American in Louisiana was 0. From 2003 to 2008—the five years preceding the global HDI comparisons are typically made between countries in the North and the South.94 in 2012. and on this basis the world is becoming less unequal.16 Similar ethnic disparities in HDI achievement in very high HDI countries can be seen in the Roma populations of southern Europe.1 73.9 11. Source: HDRO calculations.771 0.6 33.243 10. while 19 saw income per capita fall. and on this basis the world is becoming less unequal Chapter 1  The state of human development | 25 .741 0.501 5. provincial variations.2 10.558 0. Between 1990 and 2012.758 0.428 1.683 0.8 4. income per capita rose in all four HDI groups. In 2010.0 7.3 8.

21 Note: PPP is purchasing power parity.7%).400 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Poverty One of the world’s main priorities is to eradicate poverty and hunger. Table 1. 2.100 2. gas. what matters is not only the level of income.900 1.25 a day relative to 1990. and Cuba tops the list for high human development countries.1 Income per capita is rising to varying degrees in all four HDI groups Gross national income per capita (2005 PPP $) 35.25 a day went from 17.4% to 32. Despite commodity price increases. many net commodity-importing countries.2% to 13.19 New Zealand tops the list for very high human development countries. as measured by the largest positive difference between GNI per capita and HDI ranks. Individuals can spend their income on essential foods or on narcotics.500 1. This is the first of the eight Millennium Development Goals. Sub-Saharan African economies were also partly shielded from global shocks by greater regional integration. Figure 1.000 1. oil.2 Sub-Saharan Africa has sustained income growth over the last decade Gross national income per capita (2005 PPP $) financial crisis—income per capita in the region grew 5% a year.20 As a result. continued to grow fast. primarily because of the success of some of the most populous countries: Brazil (where the percentage of the population living on less than 2005 PPP $1. led by China. As most Human Development Reports have underscored. But growth was also widespread in other countries. China (from 60. but how they choose to convert income into human development.Figure 1.800 1. For both societies and individuals. Rwanda and Uganda. such as Ethiopia. A society can spend its income on education or on weapons of war. more than twice the rate of the 1990s (figure 1.2).000 15.1%) and India (from 49.2 shows country successes in this respect. Source: HDRO calculations.000 Very high HDI 30. with strong performance among more diversified economies and agriculture-­ based economies.000 5. 26 | Human Development Report 2013 . particularly in East Africa.000 25. for which the target for 2015 was to halve the proportion of people living on less than $1. Source: HDRO calculations based on a panel of the same 161 countries and territories. This goal was achieved three years before that target date.2% to 6. For example. minerals and agricultural products—thanks mostly to strong demand from the South.000 20. but also how that income is used.18 This upward trend was led by resource-rich countries that benefited from price increases in Africa’s main commodity exports—notably. many fewer people are poor. what is decisive is not the process of wealth maximization.1%).000 Medium HDI Low HDI 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Note: PPP is purchasing power parity.600 1. China alone lifted a remarkable 510  million people out of poverty.000 High HDI 10.700 1. between 1990 and 2008.

471 7.703 0.3).671 34. a low HDI country. Moreover.928 4. but also by providing public goods such as health care and education.710 0.397 0.4).791 0.622 0.780 0. See statistical table 1 for detailed data sources.770 5.512) because it has the highest intensity of deprivation among countries with data.25 a day. Mozambique has a higher MPI value (0. including whether the poor can “appear in public without shame”. with deficits in health and education.005 10.25 Poverty can be measured more comprehensively using the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI).358 28.244 26 19 15 15 13 High human development Cuba Georgia Montenegro Albania Grenada Medium human development Samoa Tonga Fiji Kyrgyzstan Ghana Low human development Madagascar Togo Kenya Zimbabwe Nepal b 0. Mozambique Table 1. How income is converted into well-being. Focusing on the intensity of poverty enables the MPI to provide a more complete picture of poverty within a country or a community than is available from headcount measures alone. Source: HDRO calculations.14 billion people in those countries who live on less than $1. education. about 1.340 28. all very high HDI countries. The MPI is the product of the multidimensional poverty headcount (the share of people who are multidimensionally poor) and the average number of deprivations that each multidimensionally poor household experiences (the intensity of their poverty).2 Top five countries that rank better on the HDI than on gross national income per capita in 2012 GNI rank minus HDI rank HDI group and country Very high human development New Zealand Ireland Australia Korea. although it is below the proportion who live on less than $2 a day. (79%) and Sierra Leone (77%. also depends on environmental circumstances. The countries with the highest headcount percentages based on the MPI are in Africa: Ethiopia (87%). Despite having a smaller proportion of multidimensional poor (lower headcount ratio) than Liberia does.24 Translating income into a decent standard of living depends on a range of assets and capabilities.137 28 16 15 14 11 a. Liberia (84%).22 In the early and middle 20th century. see statistical table 5).702 0. The difference between GNI and HDI ranks is also 11 for Liberia.483 0.23 When considering relative poverty levels.541 424 1. The countries with the highest intensity of poverty (deprivations in at least 33% of weighted indicators) are Ethiopia and Mozambique (about 65% each in 2007–2011). In the 104 countries covered by the MPI.916 0.938 0.558 3.909 0.822 9. an estimated 10% of the global population is afflicted by some form of disability. potentially limiting their standard of living regardless of income.684 28 26 24 24 22 0. European countries reduced poverty not only by increasing incomes.26 This exceeds the estimated 1. though the difference is larger in low HDI countries than in medium of high HDI countries (figure 1. Chapter 1  The state of human development | 27 . Senegal (59%) and Liberia (58%). Israel a HDI value Gross national income (GNI) per capita (2005 PPP $) 0. for example. it is also important to consider the social and political arenas. Estonia and Greece. which looks at overlapping deprivations in health.Poor people do not just suffer from a lack of income. Rep. followed by Burkina Faso (64%).745 0.231 26.56 billion people—or more than 30% of their population—are estimated to live in multidimensional poverty. particularly for the poor.257 44 37 24 21 21 0.153 4.4). and public and personal safety (box  1.459 0.463 828 928 1. b.087 2. education and standard of living. The difference between GNI and HDI ranks is also 13 for Chile.009 1.27 The pattern holds true for all four HDI groups.919 0.749 0. Poverty has multiple dimensions. These are all issues in which the state has an important role facilitating access to health. This also holds true for many of the rapidly growing countries of the South (figure 1.519 0.900 24.539 5.

5 4. Other important subjective indicators of human well-being are satisfaction with the quality of health care and education. with a low of 2. Dolan. 65% of respondents indicated satisfaction with health care quality. 2007–2009a (% answering “yes”) 61.3 on a scale of 0–10 (see table). An important subjective indicator of well-being that can be gleaned from surveys is overall life satisfaction. Sen and Fitoussi 2009. Subjective data can complement but not substitute for objective data.2 b Satisfaction with education quality. Source: Kahneman and Krueger 2006. They further note that subjective approaches allow for a distinction between quality of life dimensions and the objective factors that shape them. They point out that the approach has strong links to the utilitarian tradition but also has broader appeal.0 64. They are ordinal in nature and usually are not comparable across countries and cultures or reliable across time. Stiglitz.8 61. For instance. with a low of 19% in Ethiopia and a high of 90% in Luxembourg (see statistical table 7).0 68.9 4.8 56. there is no observed measure of happiness. By contrast. Not surprisingly.1 61. Kahneman and Krueger (2006) lay the analytical basis for measuring subjective well-being on the fact that people often depart from the standards of the “rational economic agent”.5 4. Krueger and Schkade (2008) note that over 2000–2006.3 52.7 4. Average global satisfaction with education quality was 64%. However. not updating beliefs in the light of new information. Sen and Fitoussi (2009) adopt subjective well-being as one of their three conceptual approaches to measuring quality of life.4 5.3 58.8 50.8 in Denmark (see statistical table 9). life satisfaction tends to be higher in countries with higher human development. 28 | Human Development Report 2013 .4b 73.9 4.0 54. Stiglitz. Overall life satisfaction and satisfaction with health care and education Overall life satisfaction.4 Subjective indicators of well-being: increased acceptance in thinking and policy Interest in using subjective data to measure well-being and human progress and to inform public policy has grown in recent years.Box 1. the government committed itself to explore the use of subjective indicators of well-being. Subjective measures are not without problems. Average global satisfaction with health care quality was 61%. whereas inflation can be measured as either actual or perceived inflation.7 64.7 5. Sen and Fitoussi (2009). the case for relying exclusively on objective data is weakened. 2011 (% answering “yes”) 61.0 69. with Pakistan at 41% and Sri Lanka at 83%. In South Asia.5 50.1 b HDI group and region HDI group Very high human development High human development Medium human development Low human development Region Arab States East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa World Satisfaction with health care.5 b 5. Survey results indicate that high-quality health care and education can be delivered at a wide range of income and human development levels. Value is not displayed in the statistical tables because data are not available for at least half the countries covering at least two-thirds of the population of the group. Layard and Metcalfe 2011.9 55. Dolan. Bhutan has integrated the subindicators that constitute the Gross National Happiness Index into its public policy measures. Subjective measures of quality of life. however. particularly at the national level. If the assumed link between observed data and actual preferences is tenuous. most satisfied) 6. 2007–2011a (0.3 44. 1. 157 papers and numerous books were published in the economics literature using data on life satisfaction or subjective well-being. and there exists a greater case for using subjective data as well.3b 79. as suggested by Stiglitz.1 In the United Kingdom. Data for 149 countries place average life satisfaction globally at 5. with a low of 35% in Mali and a high of 94% in Cambodia (see statistical table 8). health care satisfaction is 45% in Europe and Central Asia. b. these indicators— appropriately measured and carefully used—can be valuable supplements to objective data to inform policy.2 68. least satisfied. Thus it can be misleading to use subjective indicators such as happiness as the only or main policy criterion.3 6.8 in Togo and a high of 7. Stewart 2013. 10. Source: HDRO calculations based on Gallup (2012).0 b b a.8 5.2b 51.7b 50. Making inconsistent choices. Data refer to the most recent year available during the period specified. Layard and Metcalfe 2011. do not have objective counterparts. the latter showing that even at comparatively low levels of income it is possible to reinforce social perceptions about community and the state. desisting from gainful exchanges: all violate the assumption of rationality that underlies the translation of observed behaviour into a theory of revealed preferences in economics.2 56.

Most No one should be doomed to a short life or a miserable one because he or she happens to be from the “wrong” class or country.In South Asia. the greater the inequality. and the intensity of deprivation is 50% in Bangladesh.3 The lower the HDI value. Virtually all studies agree that global income inequality is high. followed by Pakistan (0. Figure 1.264 with data for 2007) and Nepal (0. Note: Data refer to 2002–2011. Every person has the right to live a fulfilling life according to his or her own values and aspirations. Although a larger proportion of the population (headcount) lives in multidimensional poverty in Bangladesh than in Pakistan.217 with data for 2011).32 Other studies conclude the opposite. almost a quarter of HDI value. the IHDI equals the HDI. 49% in Pakistan and 44% in Nepal.29 Based on IHDI calculations for 132 countries in 2012. inequality has not.28 The effects of inequality on human development can be captured by the Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI). though there is no consensus on recent trends. Low HDI countries suffer most because they tend to have greater inequality in more dimensions. A difference between the two denotes inequality.25 a day) Multidimensional poverty Equity and human development An essential part of human development is equity. the highest MPI value is in Bangladesh (0. No one should be doomed to a short life or a miserable one because he or she happens to be from the “wrong” class or country. reinforcing the conclusions of several studies of developed countries. where the effects are more substantial in high and very high HDI countries. there is no upper limit. But for income.31 One study that integrated the income distribution of 138 countries over 1970–2000 found that although mean income per capita has risen. the “wrong” ethnic group or race or the “wrong” sex. the intensity of deprivation is higher in Pakistan. or 23% is lost to inequality (see statistical table 3).34 IHDI trends for 66 countries over 1990– 2005 show that overall inequality declined marginally due to declines in health and education inequality being offset by increases in income inequality (figure  1. Where there is no inequality. Inequality Inequality reduces the pace of human development and in some cases may even prevent it entirely.30 This is partly because of the measures used—life expectancy and mean years of schooling have upper bounds to which all countries eventually converge. the living standards dimension contributes more than the health and education dimensions. the “wrong” ethnic group or race or the “wrong” sex Chapter 1  The state of human development | 29 . Low HDI countries lose a third of HDI value to inequality. whereas very high HDI countries lose only 11%. the greater the difference. the larger the gap between income poverty and multidimensional poverty High HDI Medium HDI Low HDI 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Percent Extreme income poverty (less than $1. which examines the average level of human development and its distribution along the dimensions of life expectancy. there have been much greater reductions in inequality in health and education in the last two decades than in income. An analysis of 132 developed and developing countries for this Report finds an inverse relationship between inequality and human development (box 1.5). but in Pakistan. Moreover. the health dimension contributes more than the other two dimensions. This is most marked for inequality in health and education and less so for inequality in income. educational attainment and command over the resources needed for a decent living. Source: HDRO calculations.5). 53% in Pakistan and 49% in Nepal.33 Still others find no change at all. Globally.292 with data for 2007). The proportion of the population living in multidimensional poverty is 58% in Bangladesh. The population-weighted averages are based on 22 countries for the high HDI group and 36 countries each for the medium and low HDI groups. in Bangladesh and Nepal.

regions show rising inequality in income and declining inequality in health and education (figure  1. East Asia and the Pacific (34%) and Latin America and the Caribbean (32%).25 a day equals population in multidimensional poverty.25 a day (%) 90 80 70 Nigeria Tanzania 60 50 Bangladesh 40 India Ethiopia 30 Ghana Nepal 20 Georgia China South Africa Indonesia Pakistan 10 Brazil Peru Argentina Thailand Morocco Egypt 0 Tunisia 0 Azerbaijan 10 20 Kyrgyzstan 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Population in multidimensional poverty (%) Note: Data refer to 2002–2011. but it still has the most unequal distribution of all regions. for example. Sub-Saharan Africa has the most inequality in health. And more children are finishing school. Latin America has seen income inequality fall since 2000. the average enrolment ratio for primary education is nearly 100%.Figure 1.4 There is notable variation among countries in the gap between income poverty and multidimensional poverty Population living on less than $1. Declines in inequality in both health and education may reflect corresponding government priorities and innovations in social policy. In both developed and developing countries. There is also a link between health and education. while South Asia has the most inequality in education. The world has made much progress in reducing inequality in educational attainment in both enrolment ratios and expected years of schooling over 1990–2010. . particularly in 30 | Human Development Report 2013 Europe and Central Asia (loss due to inequality in education declined almost 68%). Diagonal line indicates where population living on less than $1.6). Bubble size is proportional to the number of people in multidimensional poverty. Better education for women. Source: HDRO calculations.

Source: HDRO calculations using data from Milanovi´ c (2010). systems. which restricts their freedoms. progress in reducing the GII value has been virtually universal.5 32.463 (see statistical table 4).5 Losses due to inequality in HDI and its components Loss due to inequality (%) Gender and women’s status Gender equality is both a core concern and an essential part of human development.5 1990 1995 Education Note: Based on a population-weighted balanced panel of 66 countries. several countries have huge gender gaps in Chapter 1  The state of human development | 31 . education and the labour market. can lead to social instability.5 37.568). empowerment and labour market participation. A different regression was used for each explanatory variable. and particularly taxation. Overall inequality in human development. All too often.tends to result in better health outcomes for them and for the next generation. education and income) due to four explanatory variables: overall inequality in human development. income inequality has declined as a result of cash transfer programmes. compared with 50% of men) and low labour force participation (31% of women are in the labour force. Sub-Saharan Africa (0. The rise in income inequality to some extent reflects a failure of national fiscal. The higher the GII value. women are discriminated against in health. Even in this group. the three driving factors are low female representation in parliament (18.747 (in Yemen). regression analysis showed the effects of multidimensional inequality (measured as the loss in the Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index relative to the HDI) on the HDI and each of its components (health.5 22. Persistence of inequality often results in a lack of intergenerational social mobility. The extent of discrimination can be measured through the Gender Inequality Index (GII).5 17. however. which can also lead to social unrest. Thus life expectancy and educational attainment may move in tandem. high and very high). In South Asia. This can be offset by social protection.5%).35 Rising inequality. driven mostly by inequality in health and education rather than in income. and all regressions included dummy variables to control for the level of human development (low.577) and the Arab States (0. Figure 1. with the well-off attending good schools and universities. Results were robust to different specifications. High gender disparities persist in South Asia (0.5 Inequality holds back human development HDRO research using Human Development Index (HDI) data yields robust findings of an inverse relationship between inequality and subsequent improvement in human development. inequality in educational attainment and inequality in income per capita. especially between groups. the GII shows large variations across countries. 42. gender imbalances in educational achievement (28% of women have completed at least secondary education.36 Countries in the very high human development group outperform those in other human development groups and demonstrate greater parity between women and men in educational attainment and labour market participation. for example. Most inequality in education today reflects disparities in quality (box 1. Source: HDRO. medium.5 27. and the poor attending inadequate. Using data on 132 countries for 2012.045 (in Netherlands) to 0.6): many developing countries have dual-track systems. compared with 81% of men). ranging from 0. which captures the loss of achievement due to gender inequality in three dimensions: reproductive health. 2000 Health Income 2005 Total Between 2000 and 2012. In Latin America. but uneven. mostly privately funded.555). including grouping countries with low and medium human development on the one side and countries with high and very high human development on the other. with an average of 0. the greater the discrimination. but inequality in income per capita showed no correlation. inequality in life expectancy. Box 1. Based on 2012 data for 148 countries. undermining longterm human development progress. inequality in life expectancy and inequality in educational attainment showed a highly statistically significant (at the 1% level) negative correlation. mostly publicly funded facilities.

Though many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa showed improvement in their GII value between 2000 and 2012. Data on income inequality from Milanovi´ c (2010) are available through 2005. and the dowry system in some countries. but women still occupy only around a fifth of all seats (20. sex-selective abortion and infanticide are artificially altering the demographic landscape. women outnumber men in parliamentary representation (52% compared with 48%). education data from Barro and Lee (2010) and income inequality data from Milanovi´ c (2010).37 In some countries. This is not just a concern for gender justice and equality.38 In recent . female parliamentary representation is still below 20% while in Rwanda.7%).08–1. which is deteriorating in some fast-growing countries. they still perform worse than countries in other regions.Figure 1.05 (or 105 boys to 100 girls). mainly because of higher maternal mortality ratios and adolescent fertility rates and huge gaps in educational attainment.18. entrenched patriarchal mores and prejudices. for example. In Ireland. the changing aspirations of urban and rural societies. the average was 1. The 32 | Human Development Report 2013 natural ratio for children ages 0–4 is 1. leading to a shortage of girls and women.6 Most regions show declining inequality in health and education and rising inequality in income Health Loss due to inequality (%) Education Loss due to inequality (%) Income Loss due to inequality (%) 60 60 60 50 50 50 40 40 40 30 30 30 20 20 20 10 10 10 0 1990 1995 2000 Arab States 0 2005 2010 East Asia and the Paci c 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 South Asia 1990 1995 Sub-Saharan Africa 2000 2005 Developed countries Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Note: Based on a population-weighted balanced panel of 182 countries for loss due to health inequality.07. which are an aspect of deep-rooted sociocultural beliefs. Source: HDRO calculations using health data from United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs life tables. it also has major implications for democracy and could lead to social violence. Italy. managed to increase female representation more than 50%. The high male sex ratio at birth reflects women’s status in society. One of the most disturbing trends concerns the sex ratio at birth. 144 countries for loss due to education inequality and 66 countries for loss due to income inequality. But in the 175 countries for which 2012 data are available. parliamentary representation. and 13 countries had a ratio of 1.

41 Key to improving gender equity are political and social reforms that enhance women’s human rights. But even more than years of schooling. share of low-performing schools and consistency of quality outcomes. although there was substantially more gender balance at all education levels in these countries for girls and young women currently of school attendance age. Investments by some countries in education quality will likely bring future payoffs in a more knowledge-driven globalized world. Finland and Hong Kong. Standard policies to enhance women’s income do not take into account gender differences within households. Japan and the Republic of Korea) reach and surpass the qualifications found in the United States. The key driver. They were followed by students from the Republic of Korea. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) collects internationally compatible data on the educational attainment of students and allows for cross-country comparison of average learning scores. and Finland. This would include effectively ending the exploitative dowry system. catching up from very low levels of performance. In absence of the latter—for instance. 2009 600 500 400 300 200 0. sharing 15th place with Iceland and Poland. 2012 Non-OECD OECD Source: HDI values.39 generating greater economic opportunities for women. The United States performed below average in mathematics. Redressing this imbalance will involve changing many social norms. OECD (2010b). in addition to its intrinsic value in expanding women’s choices.6 0. Singapore. even though they create economic prosperity. slightly above average in science. in African countries—patriarchal prejudices alone do not manifest in high male sex ratio at birth.6 Education quality: achievement on the Programme for International Student Assessment The education component of the Human Development Index has two measures: mean years of schooling and expected years of schooling. appear to be eroding as young cohorts in other countries (such as Ireland. China (SAR) in reading. China.7 0. outperformed students from 62 countries in reading. Brazil. China (SAR) and the Republic of Korea in mathematics. mathematics and science skills. It has often been argued that improving education for women helps raise their levels of health and nutrition and reduces fertility rates. In the most recent PISA. HDRO calculations. conducted in 63 countries and territories in 2009. Programme for International Student Assessment scores. Important as education and job creation for women are. is the combination of patriarchal mores and greater economic value of boys in the presence of a dowry system. and above average in reading. the problem has been exacerbated by the spread and misuse of ultrasound technologies that enable parents to exercise age-old preferences for boys. quality of education is a key factor in expanding human capabilities (see figure). dignity. Programme for International Student Assessment scores in reading positively correlate with HDI values Reading score. participation. In this respect. including those that affect the economic incentives of the household to have boys rather than girls. education also has an instrumental value in enhancing health and fertility outcomes of women and children. sharing 29th place with Ireland and Portugal. Indonesia and Peru have seen impressive gains. Students from Shanghai. including freedom.40 Thus. the advantages of a highly educated labour force. creating conditions for women to have greater control over their lives and enhancing their political participation and decisionmaking within households. in 21st place. women’s greater burden of unpaid work and gender division of work as per cultural norms. Chile. low and medium HDI countries still have some way to go. autonomy and collective agency.42 Box 1. Hong Kong. For example. There was also a gender imbalance among the uneducated population in high and very high HDI countries in 1970–2010.8 0.9 HDI. which countries such as the United States have traditionally had. many countries showed impressive strides in quality of learning outcomes. Hong Kong. however. Chapter 1  The state of human development | 33 . they are not enough. China (SAR) and Singapore in science. Policies based on economic theory that does not take these factors into account may have adverse impacts on women.years.

for example. Integrating different groups can be as critical for well-­being 34 | Human Development Report 2013 .46 Few countries are following an ecologically sustainable path now. Over time.47 Figure 1. Social integration Human development involves expanding individual capabilities. Poor countries cannot and should not imitate the production and consumption patterns of rich countries. how individuals relate to each other is important in building cohesive and enduring societies. Better ways to monitor environmental sustainability are also needed. it is easy to lose perspective about important long-term consequences of current actions. underscoring the need for technological innovations and shifts in consumption that can facilitate movement towards sustainable human development. “All postponed debts mortgage sustainability. Thus.7 plots the ecological footprint of consumption of 151 countries against their HDI value in 2012. The objective should thus be both intragenerational and intergenerational equity. As the 1994 Human Development Report underscores. whether alive or not yet born. People care not only about the choices open to them. Progress in human development achieved sustainably is superior to gains made at the cost of future generations. Investing in people today requires a prudent balance between debts incurred today and the obligations they impose on future generations. with the brunt of them borne by poor countries and poor communities.Intergenerational equity and sustainability When one crisis follows another. On the environmental front.79 global hectares per capita in 2008). It is thus important to bear in mind that today’s choices can have a large and decisive influence on the choices available for decades in the future. when economies are not growing.48 Very few countries have both a high HDI value and an ecological footprint below the world average biocapacity (1. This does not bode well for the world.”44 The recent economic crisis has brought to the fore the sustainability of economic debt. Clearly a balance is needed.” 45 a point repeated in the 2012 Report of the UN Secretary General’s High Level Panel on Progress in human development achieved sustainably is superior to gains made at the cost of future generations Global Sustainability. poverty and misery today have negative consequences for the future. their footprints have been increasing over time. has an equal right to live a comfortable. Sustainable human development is about understanding the links between temporal choices of different generations and about assigning rights to both present and future generations. Such measures should monitor the accumulation of economic and environmental debt based on the premise that every citizen on the planet. fulfilling life. Of particular concern now are the global challenges of climate change and fragile ecosystems. Indeed. public and private. These measures should also highlight planetary boundaries or “tipping points”. the situation is becoming more dire. The 2012 UN Conference on Sustainable Development called for measures that address the connections between present and future sets of choices. whether economic debts. And rich countries must reduce their ecological footprint because from a global perspective their per capita consumption and production are not sustainable. Yet individuals are also bound up with others. already imposes substantial costs. a proper accounting system for sustainable human development would include both future human development and current achievements. there is already extensive evidence of severe damage to ecosystems from the choices of past and current generations. While some high HDI countries have an ecological footprint below the world average. An influential study concluded that “Humanity has already transgressed at least three planetary boundaries. Enhancing people’s capabilities now—especially the capabilities of those who are poor or live with multiple deprivations—is vital as a matter of basic rights and part of the universalism of life claims. recognizing that climate change. but also about how those choices are secured. while tending to draw attention away from the critical issues of social and ecological debts.43 Moreover. by whom and at whose expense. social debts or ecological debts.

79 LOW AND MEDIUM HDI HIGH AND VERY HIGH HDI 0.35 0.55 Low HDI SUSTAINABLE HUMAN DEVELOPMENT WORLD AVERAGE BIOCAPACITY. The impact of inequity can persist over generations. To differentiate them from individual capabilities. They influence individual human development outcomes. as well as norms and rules of behaviour. Clearly income growth alone cannot achieve social cohesion.7). the functioning of these institutions and their impact on people can be described as “social competencies” (box 1. informal associations and cooperatives. But this commodity-centric view of inclusive growth does little to end the economic and social discrimination that often has long-standing historical and cultural roots.45 0. Such discrimination may be widespread even in countries with high income per capita. Inequity and exclusion are social injustices that fundamentally weaken human freedoms.25 0. enhancing trust and solidarity between groups. It depends on the average productivity of biologically productive land and water in a given year. and social stability as economic success. 2007 (global hectares per capita) 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0.49 In Chapter 1  The state of human development | 35 . Source: HDRO calculations and Global Footprint Network (2011). These institutions include formal nongovernmental organizations. social cohesion and social stability. 2012 Very high HDI Note: Ecological footprint is a measure of the biocapacity of the earth and the demand on biocapacity. An integrated society relies on effective social institutions that enable people to act collectively. active policies are needed.95 HDI. Some developing countries have sought to address social exclusion by distributing the benefits of growth more evenly in a refinement of the growth with redistribution strategy. 2008 1. For instance.85 0.75 Medium HDI High HDI 0.Figure 1.65 0.7 Few countries show both the high HDI and low ecological footprint required for sustainable human development Ecological footprint. The extent to which social competencies foster more-­ cohesive societies can be assessed by their success at achieving social inclusion and social stability. a study of eight developed countries found that more-unequal countries usually had lower social mobility.

institutions that promote social cohesion and human development show low levels of disparity across groups (for example. In some instances antidiscriminatory measures can ease the burden of marginalization and partially mitigate the worst effects of exclusion. In this struggle. political freedom and so on. India. For instance. producer associations. effectiveness and consequences of their social competencies. but because of groups that are effective in supporting change. thus influencing outcomes in the whole community. Societies vary widely in the number. Central to the human development perspective is that societal norms affect people’s choices and behaviours towards others.7 Social competencies: human development beyond the individual Individuals cannot flourish alone. Social action favouring human development (such as policies to extend education. intergenerational mobility declined. Development then has to be assessed not only for the short-run impact on individual capabilities.51 Such persistence of income distribution patterns across generations is also evident in Chile and Mexico. while affirmative action in a range of countries (including Brazil. Institute for Economics and Peace 2012. stifling opportunities for individuals at the . Social institutions change over time. progressive taxation and minimum wages) happens not spontaneously. Families trapped in poverty by informal norms that support early marriage and dowry requirements might reject changes to such entrenched social norms. They include formal nongovernmental organizations. they involve more than one person). but also those of future generations. The 2010 Latin America and the Caribbean Human Development Report highlighted the link between the lack of social mobility and persistent inequality. Yet there are aspects of societies that affect individuals but cannot be assessed at the individual level because they are based on relationships. or place of birth. So one task of the human development approach is to explore the nature of social institutions that are favourable for human flourishing. Latin America suffers from low social mobility. strong family bonds can provide individuals with support during upheavals. ethnic. Broadly speaking. These organizations are especially crucial for poorer people. Social conditions affect not only the outcomes of individuals in a particular society today. attitudes towards employment affect material well-being. such as how well families or communities function. functions. interactions between groups and individuals. The study of social institutions and social competencies must form an essential part of the human development approach—including the formation of groups. assuming that development is the expansion of individuals’ capabilities or freedoms. ostracizing. politics and policy outcomes. South Africa and the United States) has improved the situation of deprived groups and contributed to social stability. the role of norms in influencing behaviours. incentives and constraints to collective action. who improved their conditions and self-respect by joining together and exerting collective pressure. summarized for society as a whole in the ideas of social cohesion and social inclusion. sports clubs. we can use the term social competencies. and how norms are formed and changed. as demonstrated by a group of sex workers in Kolkata. neighbourhood associations. informal associations. empowerment. US law mandating that hospital emergency rooms offer treatment to all patients regardless of their ability to pay partly mitigates the impact of an expensive health care system with limited coverage. The human development approach. To describe what those institutions can be and do. however. at least a quarter of inequality in earnings is associated with household circumstances. according to the Global Peace Index. race or ethnicity. as inequality rose. South Africa. which results in solidarity and the absence of violent conflict. together they can acquire power collectively.52 Generally. It is fundamental to identify and encourage those that promote valuable capabilities and relationships among and between individuals and institutions. or in extreme cases killing.Box 1. They also consist of norms and rules of behaviour affecting human development outcomes. but by joining Source: Stewart 2013. discrimination. although Mexico has seen increased intergenerational mobility in recent years. For example. they cannot function alone. indeed. has been essentially individualistic. those ­ who make choices that contravene social rules. Social institutions affect individuals’ identities and choices. Being a member of a healthy society is an essential part of a thriving existence. Individuals are bound up with others. social movements and political parties. It is not a coincidence that 5 of the 10 most peaceful countries in the world in 2012. Some social institutions (including norms) can support human development in some respects but not in others: for example. unorganized individuals are generally powerless. the relationship among groups. Malaysia.50 In Brazil. savings associations and many more. Community norms and behaviours can constrain choice in deleterious ways from a human development perspective—for example. Institutions and norms can be classified as human development–promoting. but also for whether society evolves in a way that supports human flourishing. religious or gender groups) and high levels of interaction and trust among people and across groups. Social institutions are all institutions in which people act collectively (that is. such as producer groups. and norms of hierarchy and discrimination affect inequality. and to understand how they affect individuals. other than profit-making market institutions and the state. cooperatives. such 36 | Human Development Report 2013 as parents’ educational attainment. the United Kingdom in particular. Policy change is the outcome of a political struggle in which different groups (and individuals) support or oppose particular changes. are also among the most equal societies as measured by loss in Human Development Index value due to inequality. and women in a squatter community in Cape Town. worker associations. human development–neutral and human development–undermining. and those changes may be accompanied by social tension if they hamper the interests of some groups while favouring others. but may constrain individual choices and opportunities. They are also characterized by the absence of discrimination and low levels of marginalization.

for example. While such public initiatives are to be encouraged. Unequal access to assets Inequitable access to wealth and knowledge disempowers the excluded from competing in the marketplace. some groups have been left behind. present in all 27 EU member states. Most are EU citizens but continue to suffer discrimination and social exclusion. Capital markets have failed to provide sufficient credit to the excluded. The results of such restrictive interventions are reduction of income poverty to varying degrees and some improvement in human development. Chapter 1  The state of human development | 37 . who then use office to enhance their wealth and perpetuate their hold over power. The main agents of production tend to be the urban elite. But across much of the South. The distribution process must elevate the excluded beyond their inherited role as primary producers by enabling them to move upmarket through greater opportunities to share in adding value through collective action. Such agendas should reposition the excluded within the processes of production. Box 1. not its sources. The production process needs to graduate the excluded from living out their lives exclusively as wage earners and tenant farmers by investing them with the capacity to become owners of productive assets.8). at the lowest end of the production and marketing chains. for example. policy agendas need to be made more inclusive by strengthening the capacity of the excluded to participate on more equitable terms in the market economy and the democratic polity. The governance process must increase the active participation of the excluded in representative institutions. leaving them with little opportunity to share in market economy opportunities for adding value to their labour. By contrast. the resource-poor remain excluded from more-dynamic market sectors. Often the excluded remain voiceless in the institutions of governance and thus underserved by public institutions. the excluded partake only as primary producers and wage earners. even though they have demonstrated their creditworthiness through low default rates in the microcredit market. Unjust governance This inequitable and unjust social and economic universe can be compounded by unjust governance. The prevailing structures of land ownership remain inimical to a functioning democratic order. they are Europe’s biggest ethnic minority. lack of access to capital and property perpetuates urban poverty. essential for satisfactory and sustainable human progress. both in the design of policy agendas and in the selection of electoral candidates.53 The presence of inequalities can adversely affect social interactions and restrict freedom The presence of inequalities can adversely affect social interactions and restrict freedom of choice The traditional agendas for reducing poverty recognize but inadequately address its structural sources. originates in insufficient access to land and water for less privileged segments of rural society. social disparities have widened and injustice remains pervasive.8 Poverty’s structural dimensions Even in the European Union. Representative institutions thus tend to be monopolized by the affluent and socially powerful. who own the corporate assets that power faster growing economic sectors. The institutions of democracy remain unresponsive to the needs of the excluded. And formal capital markets have Source: Sobhan. not provided financial instruments to attract the savings of the excluded and transform them into investment assets in the faster growing corporate sector. distribution and governance. Land ownership has been not only a source of economic privilege. where a large part of the population has seen rising prosperity. which is crucial to enhancing their voice in decisionmaking and providing access to the institutions of governance. income inequalities have increased. R. as members of deprived groups find it particularly difficult to progress. 2010. Contemporary interventions to promote inclusive growth have tended to focus on the outcomes of development through expanding and strengthening social safety nets. Rural poverty. Challenging the Injustice of Poverty. Inequity and exclusion endure when the excluded and those at the lower ends of the distribution lack the political voice to seek redress. have been part of European civilization for more than a thousand years. integral to empowering the excluded. but also a source of social and political authority. the Roma are often trapped in a vicious cycle of social exclusion that has persisted generation after generation. More-equal and more-just societies. Similarly. while the structural sources of poverty remain intact. Any credible agenda to end poverty must correct the structural injustices that perpetuate it. The Roma. The problem is particularly intractable in heterogeneous societies. Unequal participation in the market With the prevailing property structures of society.bottom of the income distribution for whom performance in society is determined largely by background characteristics beyond their control. thus require greater voice and political participation and more-accountable governments (box 1. Promoting structural change To correct these structural injustices. With an estimated 7–9 million people. Access to assets and markets must be backed by equitable access to quality health care and education. As two regional Human Development Reports have revealed. they address the symptoms of poverty.

0 58. human rights violations 38 | Human Development Report 2013 .0 83. 55 The 2012 Caribbean Human Development Report.2 79.8 61. b.7 c 67. A few studies have also used homicide rates to assess civic engagement and trust.1 35. for example.6 80.4 21.6 24.4 79.56 In recent years. satisfaction with freedom of choice and community. reduces the competitiveness of industries and services by imposing burdensome security costs and damages the investment climate. undermining progress in child nutrition.0 23. as earnings are lost and medical expenses are incurred. of choice.57 with a low of 0 in Monaco and a high of 91. specifically low homicide rates. In the countries of the North. Crime Freedom from fear should be reflected in low crime rates. 2007–2011a inequality. particularly for women. Data refer to the most recent year available during the period specified. Subjective data can provide an insight into the state of social integration within a country or community. rich and poor.5 77.6 in Honduras Human security The 1994 Human Development Report argued that the concept of security must shift from the idea of a militaristic safeguarding of state borders to the reduction of insecurity in people’s daily lives (or human insecurity).9 per 100. crime.9 69.b 2007–2011a (% answering yes) HDI group and region HDI group Very high human development High human development Medium human development Low human development Region Arab States East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa World 10. c. The intensity of these threats differs across the world.6 78. And diverting resources to control crime reduces the funds available to invest in health care and education.5 66. Another major cause of impoverishment in many countries.9 a.1c 76. and military spending. Perspectives on security need to shift from a misplaced emphasis on military strength to a well rounded. And in the South.54 In every society. particularly homicides. Crime may also lead to a brain drain from the country or affected community. thus slowing social integration and dampening development. unemployment.3 54. Value is not displayed in the statistical tables because data are not available for at least half the countries covering at least two-thirds of the population of the group. Ill health in the household (especially of the head of the household) is one of the most common sources of impoverishment. with many adverse effects.8 85.9 25. millions of young people are now unable to find work.Table 1. but human security remains a universal quest for freedom from want and fear.000 people.2 25. the global average homicide rate for 189 countries with data was 6. argues that violent crime erodes confidence in future development prospects. Evidence suggests a small negative correlation between losses due to inequality and satisfaction with freedom of choice and with the community.1 73. Progress in this shift can be gleaned in part from statistics on crime.9 72. Many developing country households faced with high food prices cannot afford two square meals a day. 2012 (%) (% satisfied) Satisfaction with community.2 65. HDRO calculations based on Gallup (2012). HDRO calculations based on the Inequality-Adjusted HDI.8 20. and environmental challenges. people-centred view.3 77.7 29.9 76. disease.3 Inequality and satisfaction with freedom of choice and community Satisfaction Overall loss in with freedom of HDI value due to choice. millions of farmers have been unable to earn a decent livelihood and forced to migrate.5 79.2 33. Closely related to insecurity in livelihoods is insecurity in food and nutrition. Exploring these associations can offer important policy lessons for countries (table 1. Evidence also suggests that people in countries with a high HDI value are generally more satisfied with their freedom of choice and with the community. is unequal access to affordable health care.5 81. Consider economic insecurity.3). human security is undermined by a variety of threats. including hunger.9 72. Source: Overall loss in HDI value due to inequality. Based on the Gallup survey question on overall satisfaction with city.3 12.

the city has also had a system of basic public services. For several decades.000  people).5 Arab States 4.3 per 100.8 Latin America & the Caribbean 22.2 Venezuela 45.Map 1.000 people 0 to <10 10 to <20 20 to <30 30 to <40 40+ No data Sub-Saharan Africa 20. the number of intrastate conflicts has increased since the mid-20th century. without ethnic or income separation between neighbourhoods.0).”58 This is also true for homicide: Kolkata’s average incidence of murder. high HDI countries at 13.7) and East Asia and the Pacific (2. schools.4) and New York (5. poor vendors commonly travel side by side with wage labourers and white-collar workers. including government hospitals. colleges and a low-cost public transport system.5 5. 0. the Arab States (4. There is a small negative correlation between homicide rate and HDI value. (see statistical table 9).000 people. Amartya Sen notes that Kolkata “is not only one of the poorest cities in India.59 Sen argues that Kolkata has benefited from its long history as a “mixed” city. followed by Sub-Saharan Africa (20.0 and very high HDI countries at 2. but it also has the lowest violent crime rate of all Indian cities. and indeed in the world.1.5). Contrary to popular perception.6 per 100.4 World 6.61 Military spending Since the end of the Cold War. Chapter 1  The state of human development | 39 . with low HDI countries at 14.5).2 Homicide rate per 100. there has been no overall intensification of militarization. partly because of changes in the threats to national security. It can also be instructive to look at the homicide rates for cities.7 El Salvador 69. measured by military expenditure as a proportion of GDP. In local trains. But when people do not have access to services. they may be more prone to crime. crime is not generally higher in poorer cities. Homicide rates are highest in Latin America and the Caribbean (22.000 people. is lower than in much more affluent London (2.8).4).1 There is a small negative connotation between homicide rates and HDI values Eastern Europe & Central Asia 5. South Asia (3.9 East Asia & Pacific 2. While interstate conflicts appear to be on the decline since the early 1990s. A UK study of reoffending criminals. for example.1 Côte d’lvoire 56.9 Source: HDRO calculations based on UNODC 2012. Europe and Central Asia (5.5 Honduras 91.6 South Asia 3. noted that many prisoners are victims of a lifetime of social exclusion60 and are effectively excluded from access to basic services. which have dampened the impacts of economic and social exclusion.2 per 100.

Yet much work remains. their military expenditures have been increasing. Particularly with respect to internal conflicts.8). Of particular concern is that some developed countries. Ireland and Luxembourg. HDI. Such choices contributed to its progress on the HDI from 0. for example.66 Although development is often accompanied by a rise in military spending. As the 1991 Human Development Report noted.64 Moreover. 40 | Human Development Report 2013 .621 in 1980 to 0.4  trillion. in response to the debt crisis. HDRO calculations. are pursuing austerity policies that could foreclose or reduce future choices and options for people in the South.4 0. military spending worldwide for the 104 countries with data available was more than $1. particularly medium HDI countries. has not had an army since 1948. and many of them rely on external powers for national security. for example.68 In 2009.773 in 2012. Today.6 0. but most have scope for substantial slowing in their military spending Today the majority of security threats come not from other countries but from insurgencies. more of the conflicts have been in the poorer regions of those countries than elsewhere. Most of the spending was by very high HDI countries. India has shown that while policing may be more effective in curbing violence in the short term. Between 1990 and 2010.8 1. terrorism and other civil conflicts.62 Conflicts in the post–Cold War era have claimed more than 5 million casualties. 2012 Low HDI Medium HDI High HDI Very high HDI Source: Military expenditure. This is of particular significance for the rising countries of the South. Nevertheless. redistribution and overall development are better strategies to prevent and contain civil unrest in the medium term. 95% of them civilians. and the Arab States saw it rise 43%–388%. They tend to possess small territories. around 20 countries have small or no armed forces. the increase was slower than GDP growth.8 Development is not always accompanied by a rise in military spending Military spending.2 0. military spending more than tripled in medium HDI countries. Not all countries have the preconditions for complete demilitarization. while South Asia. The only viable path to higher human development is through active investment in enhancing capabilities and enlarging opportunities.67 It spends nothing on the military and has thus been able to earmark more funds for social programmes and social investments.6% of world GDP. it invested 6. But as other countries’ economies have grown.0 HDI. “People who are healthier. These aggregates hide considerable diversity.65 In 2010. Europe and Central Asia saw military spending decline 69% between Figure 1. among them Austria. but some very high HDI countries have a share below 1% of GDP.63 In South Asia.3% of GDP in education and 7% in health. Iceland. Almost every country has challenges to overcome and opportunities for further progress. and skilled will be in a much better position to cope with a fast-changing environment and meet the 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0. since 2001. The highest shares of military spending as a proportion of GDP are in very high and high HDI countries. all nine countries have experienced internal conflict in the last two decades. while rising close to 50% in low HDI countries and 22% in very high HDI countries and falling almost 47% in high HDI countries.69 *    *    * This analysis of the state of human development is positive and hopeful. in the three HDI groups where total military expenditure grew. but most have scope for substantial slowing in their military spending. confident. Costa Rica. or 2. and the resulting casualties have outnumbered those from interstate conflicts.Not all countries have the preconditions for complete demilitarization. this is not always the case (figure 1. 2010 (% of GDP) 1990 and 2010. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. East Asia and the Pacific.

”70 The next chapter documents the extent to which many countries of the South have been able to follow this route. as well as the global impact they are having.technological and competitive demands of the international marketplace. Later chapters will consider how they have done this and examine the implication of the rise of the South for international governance and for reshaping global power relations. Chapter 1  The state of human development | 41 .

” Mahatma Gandhi .“When the music changes. so does the dance. I want the cultures of all the lands to be blown about my house as freely as possible.” African proverb “I do not want my house to be walled in on all sides and my windows to be stuffed. But I refuse to be blown off my feet by any.

such as curbing climate change. developing countries account for a third of value added in world production of manufactured goods. Developing countries. It may seem that increasing the number of participants will make it more difficult to arrive at a global consensus.7 And changes in information technology have made services increasingly tradable. the production of manufactures is fragmented across borders. In 1800. And all this is happening as people and continents are connected on a previously unimaginable scale. Brazil and Bangladesh. geography and history: for example. More than 2 billion people use the Internet. reducing poverty and increasing wealth on a grand scale. people and ideas has been remarkable. and every year more than 1 billion people travel internationally.1). social structures. a more global South Global production is rebalancing in ways not seen for 150 years. and by 1960 it was still less than 25%.9 Between 1990 and 2010. Rebalancing: a more global world.4 The proportion remained small right after the Second World War. This wave of developing countries encompasses countries with very different endowments. and Malaysia and Mozambique. particularly in Asia.2 New and improved technologies. The rapidly expanding connections between these countries are also leading to a more balanced form of globalization. These countries demonstrate that rapid people-centred development can take root in a wide range of contexts. The leading countries of the South played a crucial role in responding to the 2008 financial crisis. developing rules for stable financial markets. Between 1980 and 2010. During these uncertain times. Dialogue is intensifying on the appropriate provisioning of global public goods. India and Indonesia. have ridden these shifts to great advantage. By 2011. Today. Ghana and Guyana. trade accounted for nearly 60% of global output. A more global South A striking feature of the world scene in recent years is the transformation of many developing countries into dynamic economies that are doing well in economic growth and trade and progressing rapidly on human development. as a result of reduced trade barriers and lower transport costs. advancing multilateral trade negotiations and agreeing on mechanisms to finance and produce green technologies. The result has been a remarkable rise in intraindustry and intrafirm trade. trade accounted for 2% of world output. They still face formidable challenges and are home to many of the world’s poor.5 The expansion it represents is widely distributed. lifting other developing economies. services. are boosting people’s productivity and enabling production to be shared across borders. adapted to local conditions. Algeria and Argentina.6 Today.1 But they have demonstrated how pragmatic policies and a strong focus on human development can release the opportunities latent in their economies. they increased their share of world merchandise trade from about 25% to 47%8 and their share of world output from 33% to 45%. with many countries trading intermediate goods. facilitated by globalization. China and Chile. from about Chapter 2  A more global South | 43 . But the rise of the South could help break stalemates on some of today’s global issues and lead to more development-­friendly global agreements.2. the merchandise exports of eight developing country members of the Group of 20 (G20) increased 15-fold. New trade routes are flourishing: countries as diverse as Morocco. Turkey and Viet Nam each have substantial export and import relationships with more than 100 economies. however. they are collectively bolstering world economic growth. South Africa.3 This transformation is affecting the dynamics of regional and global relationships. with at least 89 developing countries increasing their trade to output ratio over the past two decades (box 2. Growth in the cross-border movement of goods. The rise of the South is noteworthy for its diversity. And their experiences and knowhow are an expanding source of best practice that should enable other developing countries to catch up. Thailand.

Indonesia.2 0. three large countries that are considered global players in world markets. More than four-fifths of these developing countries increased their trade to output ratio between 1990 and 2012.0 0. such as BRICS (Brazil. All countries that had substantial improvement in HDI value and increased their trade to output ratio between 1990 and 2012 are highlighted in the upper right quadrant of the figure.12 .2 0.Box 2. 3. 0. South Korea [Republic of Korea] and Turkey).6 0. have many substantial trading partnerships1 and maintain a high trade to output ratio relative to countries at comparable income levels. Thus they constitute a Human progress and trade expansion in the South Relative improvement in HDI value. Countries in the lower right quadrant (including Kenya. Countries with open circles in the upper right and lower right quadrants had modest relative improvement in HDI value between 1990 and 2012 but increased their trade to output ratio or maintained a large number of substantial trading ties. Turkey and South Africa) and MIST (Mexico. Brazil and South Africa). just 15 years later it had three times as many.2 0. Egypt. Almost all developing countries that made the most improvement in HDI value relative to their peers between 1990 and 2012 (at least 45 in the sample here) have integrated more with the world economy over the past two decades. While not all globally integrated developing countries have made rapid gains in Human Development Index (HDI) value.2 0. about 87% can be considered globally integrated: they increased their trade to output ratio. their average increase in trade to output ratio is about 13 percentage points greater than that of the group of developing countries with more modest improvement in HDI value.0 1. 1990–2012 larger and more varied group than the emerging market economies often designated by acronyms. 1990–2010 1.3 0. Mexico Turkey Brazil Ghana China Bangladesh India High HDI improvers. trade to output ratios from World Bank (2012a).2 Change in trade to output ratio. IBSA (India. Pakistan and Venezuela.4 0. Two smaller countries whose trade to output ratio declined (Mauritius and Panama) continue to trade at levels much higher than would be expected for countries at comparable income levels.6 0. but also dozens of smaller and least developed countries. The figure below plots improvement in HDI value4 against the change in trade to output ratio. India. See Rodrik (2001).2 All these developing countries are also much more connected to the world and with each other: Internet use has expanded dramatically. Source: HDRO calculations.1 0 0. merchandise exports per capita from Sub-Saharan Africa were more than twice those from India. Bilateral trade exceeding $2 million in 2010–2011.3 The increasingly integrated countries with major improvement in HDI value include not only the large ones that dominate the headlines.10 But trade has also increased for many other countries. with the median annual growth in the number of users exceeding 30% between 2000 and 2010. This is consistent with earlier findings that countries tend to open more as they develop.4 0. China and South Africa).11 44 | Human Development Report 2013 In 1995–1996 Thailand had around 10 trading partners to which it exported more than $1 billion in goods each. Viet Nam. Relative HDI improvement is measured by residuals from a regression of the change in the log of HDI value between 1990 and 2012 on the log of initial HDI value in 1990. the converse is true.8 1. 2.1 The South’s integration with the world economy and human development In a sample of 107 developing countries over 1990–2010. globally integrated Modest HDI improvers. Five countries with black dots in the upper left quadrant made substantial improvement in HDI value but reduced their trade to output ratio between 1990 and 2010. Among the exceptions in the subgroup that also made substantial improvement in HDI value are Indonesia.1 0. In 2010. CIVETS (Colombia.3 0.4 0.1). the Philippines and South Africa) increased their trade to output ratio but made modest improvement in HDI value. though they either maintained a large number of substantial trading ties globally or traded more than predicted for countries at comparable levels of income per capita. spread across the globe (map 2. Based on results from a cross-country regression of trade to GDP ratio on income per capita that controls for population and landlockedness. Russian Federation. globally integrated Others $200 billion to $3 trillion. Indonesia. 4. exporting or importing from at least 80 economies. an indicator of the depth of participation in global markets.

and those exports are more intensive in skills and technology. Indian companies are investing in African industries ranging from infrastructure to hospitality and Chapter 2  A more global South | 45 .1 Thailand’s export expansion. China’s trade with Sub-Saharan Africa rose from $1  billion to more than $140  billion. with growth particularly remarkable in the 2000s (figure 2. Countries of the South are exporting more merchandise (and manufactures) to each other than to countries of the North. Global rebalancing has been accompanied by an unprecedented linking of developing regions.13 South–South trade has been an important growth stimulus during the recent economic downturn.000 No data Note: Data are averages for 1995 and 1996 and for 2010 and 2011. Between 1992 and 2011. Source: UNSD 2012.Map 2.000 1.1% to 26. South–South trade as a share of world merchandise trade rose from 8. Over the same period. the share of North–North trade declined from about 46% to less than 30%. Between 1980 and 2011.14 Sub-Saharan Africa has become a major new source and destination for South–South trade.7%. 1995–2011 1995–1996 2010–2011 Thailand’s exports ($ millions) 0 to <15 15 to <100 100 to <1.1). These trends hold even when exports and imports of natural resources are excluded.000 to <25.

programming. while Brazilian firms are some of the largest employers in Angola. South–South trade more than tripled over 1980–2011.415 3. as in call centres and data entry. and high-skill work. adopted and imitated.806 6.1 Least developed countries’ trade with China.089 323 2. as reported by China. In 2010. The largest import category was textiles and leather. crucial inputs for augmenting productive capacity and infrastructure—road vehicles and equipment.18 In 2010–2011. professional equipment and fixtures. capital goods such as electrical machinery. Consumer electronics and apparel and footwear accounted for less than 20% of least developed countries’ imports from China.244 93 138 1 540 1 7 1 129 34 Note: Export values are averaged for 2000 and 2001 and for 2010 and 2011 and rounded to the nearest whole number. Source: HDRO calculations based on UNSD (2012). ticketing and billing. medium-skill work. Developing countries have also seized opportunities for trade in services. China’s fourth-largest turbine producer.691 2.642 3.5 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity in India. industrial machinery.17 This still does not reflect the full dynamism of such exchanges. while North–North trade declined Share of world merchandise trade (%) telecommunications. recently acquired 55% of India’s Global Wind Power. which accounts for as much as 30% of world exports of commercial 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011 North–North South–South South–North Note: North in 1980 refers to Australia. ores and metals Chemicals Textiles and leather Iron and steel Other material-based manufactures Industrial machinery Electronics Road vehicles and equipment Apparel and footwear Professional equipment and fixtures 2000–2001 16 164 42 232 1. with the aim of installing 2.126 1 14 0 44 1 3 0 4 1 2010–2011 1. 46 | Human Development Report 2013 . import values include cost. insurance and freight. as in architectural design. nuclear reactors and boilers dominated India’s imports from China (60%) and cost an estimated 30% less than if they had been sourced from richer countries.Figure 2.965 841 44. the United States and Western Europe.15 Trade in capital goods and services South–South trade offers developing countries access to affordable capital goods that are often more appropriate to their needs than are capital goods from richer countries and that are therefore more likely to be acquired. digital animation. Advances in information technology have facilitated services trade at different skill levels: lower skill work.132 4. Source: HDRO calculations based on UNSD (2012).291 Exports to China 2000–2001 243 378 3. as in back office accounting.974 1. One of the largest internationally traded services is tourism. medical tests and software development. chemicals.1).577 2. Canada. Japan. and iron and steel—made up nearly half of least developed countries’ imports from China (table 2.1 As a share of world merchandise trade. For example. This trend is expected to intensify as developing countries take advantage of the benefits of scale from servicing their own expanding consumer markets. Table 2. Mingyang. New Zealand.323 61 236 400 382 266 266 147 2010–2011 105 1.16 Even India has benefited. including yarn and fabric that are used as inputs for least developed countries’ exports of apparel to markets in the North.178 8. 2000–2001 and 2010–2011 ($ millions at current exchange rates) Imports from China Sector Agricultural raw materials Food and beverages Fuel.

21 Figure 2. a size­ able share of inward FDI now originates in other developing countries.5 billion tourist arrivals will occur within the same geographic region.24 They are augmenting their competitiveness by acquiring strategic assets such as brands. Developing countries engage initially in the labour-­ intensive segments. typically in product assembly. developing countries have been able to diversify their industrial structures and participate in complex production processes. these manufacturing plants create demand for domestic firms to supply inputs and producer The increase in trade and investment by multinational corporations and others can be likened to a third industrial revolution Chapter 2  A more global South | 47 . with most investments in countries in the same region.2). with an investment stock of $1. Data are converted to US dollars at current exchange rates. companies in the South made up only 4% of the Fortune Global 500 ranking of the world’s biggest corporations. in 2011. they are numerous: there are now more Korean than Japanese multinational companies. Mexico. especially in Asia. 20 FDI flows into developing countries have been a forerunner of outward FDI from developing countries. Thailand and Turkey. Malaysia.2). three-fourths of more than 1. The UN World Tourism Organization projects that by 2020. along with Egypt. the less complex production relocates to less advanced neighbouring economies. There is some evidence of a strong regional dimension to South–South FDI. China was among the most popular destinations (more than 57 million arrivals). Though the enterprises may be smaller. These investments generally involve links with local firms and transfers of technology that make intensive use of labour and local content.19 Tourists spent roughly $1 trillion in 2010. especially from the fast-growing multinational corporations based in the South. and then graduate to component fabrication and equipment manufacture. The growth rate of the South’s FDI inflows and outflows rose rapidly in the 1990s and early to mid-2000s (figure 2. 800 Production networks In ows 600 400 Out ows 200 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 Note: Data are for developing and transitional economies as defined by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. technology and distribution networks (box 2. As a result.2 Foreign direct investment flows to and from the South have veered sharply upward since the 1990s Foreign direct investment ($ billions) In many least developed countries. 25 these networks split production processes into multiple steps that cross national borders. Source: HDRO calculations based on UNCTAD (2011a). and more Chinese ones than US ones. their share was 22%. FDI from the South destined for other countries in the South grew 20% a year over 1996–2009. The increase in trade and investment by multi­ national corporations and others has been linked to the expansion of international production networks.services. Foreign direct investment The increase in output and trade in many developing countries has been assisted by large inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI): between 1980 and 2010. the countries of the South increased their share of global FDI from 20% to 50%. often to neighbours and to countries with shared languages. Likened to a third industrial revolution.23 In 1990.22 The biggest outward investor from the South is China. Meanwhile. one in four transnational corporations is based in the South.2 trillion. At the same time. Today. Enterprises from the South are going global earlier than firms from developed countries did at a similar stage of development.

just as the South is contributing to the North’s recovery from the economic slowdown (box 2. 8 were Indian and 7 Brazilian.30 Diasporas are also a source of information about market opportunities.32 Links can also be strengthened when migrants return to their home country. The Economist 2011a. hospitals and businesses. and Shandong Heavy Industry Group bought a 75% stake in Italy’s Ferretti Group. 2012a. India’s Tata Group acquired the Anglo-Dutch steel firm Corus for $13.28 Almost 80% of South–South migration takes place between bordering countries. facilitating the diffusion of business information. bought for $850 million by Yildiz Holding. a Belgian chocolate manufacturer. In the long run. In 2011. Between 2000 and 2010. The acquiring companies lower their cost base by diversifying and globalizing supply chains and gain the technology and tacit knowhow (such as risk management or credit rating in the case of financial institutions) to enhance operating capabilities. the Chinese company Lenovo bought IBM’s laptop division for $1.33 Other flows of information are made possible by the widening penetration of the Internet and new social media. India 5 and Brazil 3.Box 2. the Russian Federation and South Africa. and China spent $9. US multinational firms with a high proportion of employees from particular countries have less need to rely on joint-venture partners in countries with which their employees have cultural ties. Acquiring an established. Turkish companies made 25 deals worth nearly $3 billion. In 2005. have taken their ideas. India. In 2010. Luedi 2008. JBS Friboi bought Swift. (Many big purchases are also South–South. Ltd. One of Turkey’s famous acquisitions is Godiva. India’s Bharti Airtel acquired the African operations of Zain for $10. International production networks have been driven mainly by final demand in the North. however.27 and close to half of them lived in developing countries. albeit struggling.7 billion. In this way. The surge in integrated production networks within Asia alone resulted in a high-technology export boom of nearly $320 billion between 1995 and 2005.8  billion in 27 deals across Brazil. In 2005. The acquisition of venerated brands from the North by companies in lower and upper middle-income countries is a portent of the rise of the South. The South is going global through outward investment using mergers and acquisitions. a US rival. 61 of the world’s biggest corporations on the Fortune 500 list were Chinese. capital and networks back with them when they return to their home countries. for example. In 2010. Deloitte 2012a. a bankrupt Korean carmaker. acquired Putzmeister.) South–North acquisitions are often interpreted in patriotic terms. a luxury yacht maker.3).25  billion and took over $500  million of its debt.3  billion in 2007 and Jaguar Land Rover for $2. average annual growth in Internet use . brand from the North gives companies from the South a foothold in mature markets. the strategic motives (outside the resource sector) appear to be about acquiring proprietary knowledge. There are scores of lesser known purchases of smaller brands from the North by companies in Southeast Asia and the Arab States. universities. to ease its entry into the United States. Returning entrepreneurs stay in touch with former colleagues. China in the 1990s and Viet Nam today.31 For example. Brazil’s food companies have also been active: in 2007. an estimated 3% of the world’s people (215 million) were first-generation immigrants. In 2010. Diasporas can be associated with increased bilateral trade and FDI. Many information technolog y professionals in California’s Silicon Valley. The North has played an important role in this rise of the South. South–South 48 | Human Development Report 2013 remittances were estimated at 30%–45% of worldwide remittances. Germany’s largest concrete pump maker. Thailand in the 1980s.6  billion in 2008.9 billion on an eclectic mix of more than 200 acquisitions: Sany Heavy Industry Co. Just five years earlier. China Daily 2012. skills and competencies that will help companies expand abroad and at home.2 Acquisitions by the South of brands in the North In 2011.b. purchased the Polish construction equipment manufacturer Huta Stalowa Wola. The Aditya Birla Group bought US aluminium firm Novelis in 2007 and Columbian Chemicals in 2011. Whether the deals help short-run profitability and value creation is unclear. In 2011 alone. Other returnees are building new infrastructure. China had 16 on the list. Chinese firms spent $42. Liugong Machinery Co.26 Personal networks Many transnational opportunities in both trade and investment arise through personal connections. services. Source: HDRO. Crossborder scientific collaboration also disproportionately involves scientists with diaspora ties.b. Zhejiang Geely purchased the Swedish car company Volvo. Mahindra and Mahindra acquired Sangyong. opportunities to participate in international production have widened for new entrants—as for Malaysia in the 1970s. often between international migrants and their countries of origin.29 Migrant diasporas are a huge source of foreign exchange.

Emerging markets have also revived the US role as a commodity producer (of grains. Some governments may be reluctant to expand worker rights. a large company that makes online games and mobile applications. In this regard. Since 2007. The Economist 2012b.5).34 Of the 10 countries with the most users of popular social networking sites such as Facebook.3). This positive association between FDI inflows and achievements in health and education is evident for a sample of 137 countries (figure 2. many resource-rich African countries where FDI contributed substantially to economic growth saw some of the lowest nonincome Human Development Index (HDI) values.000 people whose creations are easily exported across borders. relatively Host countries need to invest in the capacity of their people to identify and use the knowledge embedded in foreign capital and ideas Chapter 2  A more global South | 49 . is driven by demand in the North. for instance. The more successful countries in the upper right quadrant of the figure also tend to have better economic opportunities for women. But there are outliers.Box 2. Between 2003 and 2009. engineering and finance. especially in manufactured parts and components. a third of it from players outside the United States. machinery. These new workers do not always benefit from good working conditions. as illustrated by the association between high export earnings per capita and achievement in education and health (figure 2. structural engineers. US exports to China and Latin America and the Caribbean have grown two and a half times faster than US exports to traditional markets in the North. Furthermore. for instance.35 While these rates reflect in part the low base in 2000. This makes the countries of the South sensitive to shocks in the North. Helped by a weak dollar and increasing purchasing power in the South.36 The capacity of people and institutions also affects the benefits from FDI. FDI could still flow to countries with modest achievements in human development if they are exceptionally well endowed in natural resources. Spillover benefits from FDI are unlikely to be widespread if there is no sustained investment in people’s capabilities. high-value services such as architecture. such as three-dimensional printing. Impetus from human development Successful performance in trade. assimilate and develop the useful knowledge embedded in foreign capital and ideas.5). many are recapturing markets once lost to imports. investment and international production also depends on rising levels of human development.37 Indeed. The impact of a growing consumer class in the South is felt not only in services.3 Ties that bind: the mutual dependence of North and South A substantial share of South–South trade. often women. just as the recession in the North hit the South. 6 are in the South. recorded $1. if they believe it would raise production costs and reduce competitiveness (box 2. Facebook and Google employs more than 300. who are drawing an ever-increasing share of fees and royalties from services exported to Brazil. A third of US exports are now accounted for by firms employing fewer than 500 people. expanding their choices. which will be the country’s tallest building in 2015) are US designers and Source: HDRO.4). software and Hollywood movies. but also new. an educated and healthy workforce is often a key factor in influencing the decision of foreign investors on where to locate. Increased trade draws new workers.39 However. a growing “app economy” supported by such companies as Apple. efforts to keep costs low can put pressure on wages and work environments. The North is also increasingly relying on the South to power its own rebound. but also in manufacturing and commodities. Host countries need to invest in the capacity of their people to identify. China and India. the impact on development is limited when such investments are confined to enclaves and delinked from the rest of the economy. After the 2008 global financial crisis. the European Union and the United States fell about 20% between 2008 and 2009. through new techniques. was exceptionally high in around 60 developing countries (figure 2. The percentage drop in China’s exports to these economies was also in double digits. the spread and adoption of new media have revolutionized many sectors across diverse countries (box 2. for example).38 This relationship between a skilled populace and inward foreign investment tends to be mutually reinforcing. exports from Southeast Asia to Japan. into the labour market. These shifting trade patterns suggest that a slowdown in the South would halt growth in the newly dynamic exports from the North. expansion of US exports involved not only traditional sectors such as aircraft.1  billion in revenue in 2011. Behind Shanghai’s booming architectural wonders (including Shanghai Towers. Zynga.4).

Widespread benefits accrue only when activities are scaled up (box 2. training and policy support. Source: ITU 2012.7 million in Viet Nam.6).3 Between 2000 and 2010. for instance.5 3. with limited ties to the domestic economy.0 Peru Tunisia Colombia Brazil 2. Basic human capabilities are also crucial. The pace of change is slower.5 Saudi Arabia Russian Federation 2.5 India Malawi Libya Angola 0 Viet Nam Azerbaijan 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Internet users. it should also be noted that in trade of parts and components. However. especially those that are landlocked or far from world markets.Figure 2. World Bank 2012a.0 Ukraine Sri Lanka Uzbekistan Tanzania Yemen Syrian Arab Republic 0. Human development is vital for participating in global supply chains. requiring individual skills and social competencies to coordinate and organize on a large scale. 2000 (per 100 people) 4. People can learn such skills with appropriate education.000 in Angola and 6. the share of value added by any one country is generally low.41 Helping other countries catch up All developing countries are not yet participating fully in the rise of the South. Costa Rica and Mexico in Latin America and the Caribbean. the Philippines and Thailand in East Asia.5 Ecuador Pakistan China Bosnia and Herzegovina Egypt Kazakhstan Morocco 1. Internet use grew more than 30% a year in around 60 developing countries Internet users. Human development is also vital for participating in global supply chains. Only developing countries exceeding the 75th percentile of compound annual growth in Internet users are shown.0 Dominican Republic 3. In countries where production takes place almost entirely in enclaves connected to overseas supply chains. Malaysia. 2010 (per 100 people) Note: Bubble size is proportional to total Internet subscriptions in 2010 (320. in the majority of the 49 least developed countries. Even assembling components made elsewhere can be complex. and Morocco and Tunisia in the Arab States have some of the highest trade shares in parts and components. an abundance of lowwage and low-skill labour is not enough. an abundance of low-wage and low-skill labour is not enough resource-poor Ethiopia and Tanzania are noteworthy for their large increase in nonincome HDI value between 2000 and 2010 and for their above-average FDI over the same period.0 Belarus 1. many of these countries have also begun to benefit from South–South 50 | Human Development Report 2013 . Nevertheless. Brazil. Contrary to popular perception. for reference). the benefits to the rest of the economy are limited.40 China.

6% of Indonesia’s GDP. Landline telephones were few. Between 2003 and 2009.5) and Sudan (0. The more recent investments from East and Chapter 2  A more global South | 51 . The contribution was also high in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (1. Chile.0 percentage point). The human development benefits of this digital revolution are apparent. Malaysia. Cheap imports also increase the purchasing power of low-income consumers and the competitiveness of export-­oriented producers. Indonesia faced formidable obstacles in its transition to the digital age.5).Box 2. Some African countries may. A recent study of trends over 1988–2007 finds positive growth spillovers from China to other developing countries. China. with online public information services expanding since the 2010 passage of a far-ranging access to information law. just an estimated 13 million had regular Internet access. Nigeria (0. By 2010. Indonesia has become a country where cabinet ministers send daily tweets to constituents. with mobile phones giving rural communities access to public health information. which reduces the potential gains from South–South trade and exposes economies to the risk of Dutch disease. however.43 FDI from a single source country. however. The economy is profiting too.4 million registered Facebook users in greater Jakarta alone—the second most of any city in the world. finance and technology transfer. construction. Growth in low-income countries would have been an estimated 0. and environmentalists use online databases and Google Earth mapping tools to publicize deforestation. As recently as 2008. mostly through mobile phones. Dewan Teknologi Informasi dan Komunikasi Nasional (DETIKNAS). more than 55 million people did. was credited with contributing substantially to growth rates in several African countries.6%) and India (3.3–1.9 percentage points in Zambia. A December 2011 study by Deloitte Access Economics calculated that the Internet economy already accounts for 1. In July 2012.5%) and the Russian Federation (1. Possibilities include agroindustry and logistics infrastructure. trade. the estimated contribution to growth from Chinese FDI ranged from 0. though still less than in China (2. Indonesia. after Bangkok’s 8. as state encouragement and market competition slashed the prices of handsets and phone service alike. but also through the country’s 260.44 Commodity producers in Sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere have benefited from a prolonged commodity boom arising in East and South Asia. With a diverse population stretched across a vast archipelago of nearly a thousand inhabited islands. as well as demand for services (in food processing and distribution. The number of Indonesian Internet users has also grown exponentially. including in 2008– 2009 when other growth impulses were dissipating. a substantial contributor to Indonesia’s International Monetary Fund–predicted annual GDP growth rate of 6%–7% through 2016. Civic engagement has benefited. income and learning and can enable entrepreneurs to begin new cycles of innovation and investment. In all of Indonesia.42 These benefits have to some extent offset slackening demand from developed countries.1 percentage points lower in 2007–2010 had growth fallen at the same rate in China and India as in developed economies. An estimated 85% of adults owned phones.2%). there were 7. there were 44 million Facebook accounts—almost as many as India’s 49 million. particularly close trading partners. greater than the value of natural gas exports and comparable to the share in Brazil (1. It has the third most Twitter subscribers in the world. Perhaps most striking is the explosion of social media. It is closing in on its goal of wiring schools in a thousand Source: Karimuddin 2011. Madagascar (0.9). Deloitte 2011.4 Mobile phones and the Palapa Ring: connecting Indonesia Indonesia used telecommunications technology to connect its large cluster of far-flung islands and to open the country to the outside world in ways unimaginable a generation ago. Indonesian analysts say.6%). The majority of young Indonesians in urban areas now enjoy Internet access. available to most ordinary Indonesians only in major cities and at high cost.7 million. Communications between islands was limited. building what it calls a Palapa Ring of fibre-optic cables throughout the archipelago. Deloitte projects an increase to at least 2.000 Internet cafes (warnets). 220 million mobile phones were registered in a country of 240 million people.5% of GDP in five years.3). banking services and agricultural market information. the primary sector can generate sizeable backward and forward links. remote rural villages with Internet service and has introduced e-budgeting and e-procurement systems for its own business operations. By late 2011.04 percentage point in South Africa to 1. Through DETIKNAS the government has made Internet access a national priority. be hampered by the enclave character of extractive industries. Nevertheless. and Trinidad and Tobago have shown. all of which create jobs. investment. as Brazil. Niger (0. Several encouraging signs are evident. according to industry surveys. This transformation was not spontaneous: it required extensive private and public investment and prescient policy guidance from the state-run information and communications technology council. repair and maintenance).

Indian 52 | Human Development Report 2013 . resulting in large-scale layoffs 0. Brazilian and South African companies are doing the same in their regional markets. and information and communications technology products and services to countries in Africa. To check the adverse consequence of rising exports on some of its partners.0 Nonincome HDI. medical equipment. Brazil formally submitted a proposal to the World Trade Organization to examine trade remedies for redressing currency fluctuations that lead to import surges. While supporting industrial clusters and economic zones and expanding regional trade and investment.46 Even larger countries are not immune from competitive pressures. And many governments in the South are being more pragmatic. for example. skill formation and technology upgrading. Rising competitive pressures Nevertheless.6 MEDIAN 75TH PERCENTILE Malta Hungary Malaysia Italy firms.49 China has encouraged its mature industries such as leather to move closer to the supply chain in Africa and its modern firms in telecommunications. Chinese exports affect Brazilian manufacturing through imports of cheaper manufactures and indirectly through competition in third markets. for example.50 Moreover. Many countries have also benefited from technology transfer and FDI into sectors that contribute to human development. exports from larger countries can also have disadvantages. they are also creating finance and credit facilities for small and medium-size enterprises. electronics and construction to enter joint ventures with African businesses. Asian FDI in Africa has also expanded utility and telecommunications infrastructure. Others South Asia in the African commodity sector show fewer enclave characteristics. while smart industrial policy strenghtens domestic links and enhances market multipliers. are supplying affordable medicines. was initially displaced by cheap East Asian imports. Sound macroeconomic policy helps manage the risks of large foreign exchange inflows. Ethiopia’s footwear industry. Source: HDRO calculations and World Bank (2012a). clothing in Kenya and Senegal and textiles in South Africa. Large countries generate competitive pressures in smaller countries that can stifle economic diversification and industrialization.8 1.4 Export earnings per capita and human development are highly correlated Log of exports per capita. they are actively engaging in industrial policy and promoting entrepreneurship. 2005 Countries with relatively low labour force participation rates for women (less than 45% in 2009–2010) Note: Bubble size is proportional to the share of the nonprimary sector in output.2 0. strengthening institutions and becoming more open. pharmaceuticals. education. 48 India has long sought reciprocal market access for its automobiles in China.4 0. there are instances where competitive jolts have been followed by industrial revival. China is providing preferential loans and setting up training programmes to modernize the garment and textile sectors in African countries. While adopting sound macroeconomic policies.47 As an indirect response. Examples span the electrical industry in Zambia. in September 2011.Figure 2. 2008–2010 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 0.45 Clothing exports from Africa would struggle to retain their trade share in major markets without the trade preferences and liberal rules of origin available through the US African Growth and Opportunity Act and the EU Everything But Arms initiative.

insecurity and social conflict.Box 2. Some Chapter 2  A more global South | 53 .8 1. Consider the recent case of one of the world’s most valuable companies. At least 150 countries have signed on to core International Labour Organization conventions on such matters as freedom of association and discrimination in the workplace. to investigate. When the association published its findings of low pay. The view that more regulation is always bad for business has been discredited. Labour laws on minimum wage. Duhigg and Greenhouse 2012.0 Nonincome HDI. Berg and Cazes 2007. metals and ores made up more than 96% of least developed countries’ exports to China. social security and forms of contracts all aim to reduce inequality. especially in the lower end of the market traditionally catered to by Ethiopian microenterprises. Apple asked a monitoring group. From both a human development and a business perspective.5 Decent work in a competitive world The availability of decent. In Africa.2 0. well paying jobs is economically empowering. Over the longer term.1). even finding its way into the international market. 33 of which are in Africa. which ranked countries on the leniency of measures related to hiring and firing workers.52 Another concern is that the current patterns of demand from other countries in the South could accentuate the chronic specialization by many African economies in primary commodities. But the industry soon rebounded. The experience of the least developed countries. seems to bear out this concern (see table 2. and its contractor. employment protection. This outcome was possible only in an era when trade.51 One survey found that 78 of the 96 Ethiopian firms that reported in 2006 being hit hard by import competition had adjusted and become competitive within a few years. and telecommunications. manufactured imports from China exceeded $38 billion. After a series of media exposés that documented terrible labour conditions in Foxconn factories. was discontinued because it falsely implied that fewer regulations were always preferable. working hours. As China’s largest private sector employer. Heller 2013. In 2011. International retailers and sourcing agents have a responsibility to ensure that working conditions in the firms they source inputs from comply with international standards. especially for women. 2000 Note: Inward FDI (in millions of US dollars) is averaged for 2001–2010. however. and business closures.5 Current foreign direct investment is positively associated with achievements in health and education in previous years Log of foreign direct investment inflows. Total exports of manufactures by least developed countries to China were less than $1 billion.4 0. Foxconn had the power to directly improve and indirectly influence the working conditions of millions of people. eventually reducing the average workweek to 49 hours as required by Chinese law. as well as in services such as finance Figure 2. Foxconn. they also provide incentives for businesses to pursue high-road management strategies. Nigeria’s plastics industry experienced a similar revival. after years of neglect by governments and traditional donors. One of the World Bank Group’s core Doing Business indicators on employing workers. Source: HDRO calculations and UNCTAD (2011a). 2001–2010 27 25 23 21 19 17 15 0. agricultural raw materials and fuel. Apple. business practices and ethics and the universality of basic human rights are coalescing into a global norm. competitiveness is best achieved by raising labour productivity. long hours and hazardous working conditions. Nigeria’s nonincome HDI is for 2005. infrastructure has again become a priority. Labour flexibility should not mean adhering to practices that compromise decent working conditions.6 0. Notable in this episode was that public opinion in a country of the North (US media and advocacy groups) pressured a corporation headquartered in that country to nudge a partner in a country of the South to uphold that country’s own labour standards. Competitiveness squeezed out through lower wages and longer working hours is not sustainable. Source: HDRO. Yet today’s competitive global environment pressures workers to do more in less time for a lower wage. Foxconn agreed to substantial reforms. the Fair Labor Association. drawing on the experiences and support of the region’s new development partners. South–South cooperation could undo this pattern by fostering sequential investments outside natural resource industries in agriculture and manufacturing.

The set of technical standards that China requires of exporters. But South– South interactions have enabled companies in the South to adapt and innovate in ways that are more suited to developing countries. backed by supplies of commodities. however.” Consider this incident from mid-2007. which has reoriented itself from serving a predominantly European market towards China. companies is managing global supply chains that involve procuring parts and components from hundreds of companies. these labels should not be applied rigidly. African writers such as Dambisa Moyo are positive about the mutually beneficial role of new actors in the continent. Under the 2005 GSM Emerging Markets Initiative. There is no evidence so far that the shift towards emerging markets is being accompanied by a ratcheting up of the technical standards they require. Duhigg and Bradsher 2012. Moving from competition to cooperation seems to depend on policies for dealing with new challenges. such as those based on the global system for mobile (GSM) communications standard. Japan. accounts for less than 2% of the cost of an iPad. often with low margins. While Asia is attractive because of cheaper wages.53 Neither the complementary nor the competitive perspective is sufficient to explain South–South interactions. which would have required upgrading workers’ skills and capabilities.56 Innovation and entrepreneurship in the South In North–South trade.54 The shift from traditional to emerging markets is also affecting countries in ways that are difficult to predict. Because a competitive role today may easily turn into a complementary role tomorrow. The first delivery of a new load of strengthened. which is good for focusing business on it. The value of labour performed in China. while just 3. the newly industrializing economies developed capabilities for efficiently manufacturing complex products for developed country markets. flexibility. Apple had sold a million iPhones.55 In sheer volume China is the most important market. when Apple hastily redesigned the glass for the iPhone’s screen. scratch-free glass arrived at a Foxconn plant in the middle of the night. The rest of the value is earned by suppliers of parts and components headquartered in Germany. the Republic of Korea and the United States. This requires a rare combination of industrial skills. Korean firms LG and Samsung make the display and memory chips.Box 2.700 industrial engineers to oversee the 200. are assembled in a firm in Shenzen. Countries of the South are also natural locations for experimentation in new technologies and products. The low share of value captured by workers in China could give the impression that assembly does not require much sophistication. Xing and Detert 2010. This includes new business models whereby companies develop products for a large number of low-income customers. Standards range from product specifications to accreditation from third-party 54 | Human Development Report 2013 certification schemes for forest sustainability and health regulations governing formaldehyde emissions. an Apple executive told The New York Times that “the US has stopped producing people with the skills we need.000 assembly-line workers eventually involved in manufacturing iPhones. is less onerous than those the European Union requires. manufacturers slashed the price of mobile handsets by more than half and expanded the GSM subscriber .6% of the wholesale cost of an iPhone went to Chinese workers. countries have even resorted to unique credit arrangements to fund infrastructure. This is misleading. It took 15 days to hire 8.6 Final assembly is about more than low wages The iPhone and iPad. and the assembly firm is owned by a company from Taiwan Province of China. and sold worldwide at retail prices in the hundreds of dollars. Within three months. which demonstrate an ability to advance despite or maybe because of competition. Apple retains the product design. Kraemer. a more important challenge for technology Source: HDRO. Take the timber industry in Africa. at under $10. In this regard. speed and diligence at both the individual and collective levels. software development and marketing functions in the United States. Linden and Dedrick 2011. China. two popular technology products. especially for semiskilled workers. For instance. More pessimistic pronouncements that there is no hope for industrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa have been overtaken by realities on the ground. and work started immediately. Apple’s internal estimate was that a similar feat in the United States would have taken nine months.

Nokia. TI India. Technolog y diffusion through South– South investment is also unleashing entrepreneurial spirit. and Wipro has marketed a low-power desktop computer for basic Internet connectivity. Countries in South Asia and East Asia and the Pacific will alone account for 60% of the middle class population and 45% of total consumption expenditure. low-cost mobile phones. often generic medicines. and entrepreneurs can provide business services through mobile phone kiosks. For example. Greater reliance on domestic markets will boost internal dynamism and companies doing well in the South tend to be longterm risk-takers and agile in adapting and innovating products for local buyers Chapter 2  A more global South | 55 . Intel has developed a handheld device for rural banking. the most important engine of growth for countries of the South is likely to be their domestic market. Indeed.60 Since 2008. In such ways. creating buyer–seller relationships and becoming entrepreneurs to fill unmet needs in spontaneously sprouting markets. in cooperation with TI.57 Mobile phone manufacturers have also re-engineered products for the needs of lower income consumers. Increasingly. To respond to the changing needs of middle class consumers. university and public research institutions. and Ugandan farmers are using mobile phones to obtain higher prices for their bananas. This is evident in the uses to which Africans are putting affordable Asian-built mobile phones: cellular banking. mobile operators. 80% of the world’s middle class is projected to live in the South. The middle class is growing in size and income. South Africa and the United Arab Emirates. companies doing well in the South tend to be long-term risk-takers and agile in adapting and innovating products for local buyers. including affordable digital display monitors and medical ultrasound machines. Chinese. for example. exportable in kits for assembly by local technicians. The use of mobile phones in Niger has improved the performance of the grain market. reaching down to the grassroots. Tata announced the ultra-low-cost Nano car. By 2030. These and other transformations multiply the possibilities of what people can do with technology: participating in decisions that affect their lives. are often first-time shoppers for modern appliances with distinct in-store habits and are usually more receptive to branding. innovation and its benefits spread. For example. began to market the Indianmade one-chip handsets in India and Africa. a research and development centre of Texas Instruments in Bengaluru. Single-chip designs have also emerged for other devices. gaining quick and low-cost access to knowledge.59 Another estimate is that by 2025. farmers can obtain weather reports and check produce prices. These possibilities cut across income classes. a majority of the 1  billion households earning more than $20. In 2005. producing cheaper. designed a single-chip prototype for use in high-quality. in 2004. spawning faster change. This in turn stimulated investment: in 2007. the spectacular increase in phone connectivity in Africa has been driven almost entirely by companies based in India. People are often self-organizing. Companies in emerging market economies have the advantage of different management approaches from those dominant in the North: majority shareholders have greater power and redeploy resources more speedily than those in companies in the North. There is greater appreciation of a broader role for the state in stimulating research and development and in nurturing synergies stemming from cooperation among private. including South Africa’s MTN and Kuwait’s Zain. particularly in Africa. better seeds and new crop varieties. is cheaper and easier than opening a bank account.58 Some of these developments are based on interactions among research and development institutions. many African countries have emulated the early success of Mauritius in attracting East Asian FDI by creating export processing zones. businesses and community stakeholders. and generating new employment and export opportunities. And in 2008. Indian and Turkish apparel firms have shifted production from shrinking global markets to expanding domestic markets.base by 100 million connections a year. announced a five-year plan to invest an additional $50  billion in Sub-Saharan Africa to improve mobile coverage and expand it to 90% of the population. Malaysia’s investment promotion policies have also been widely copied.000 a year will live in the South. Consumers in the South tend to be younger. selling more than 20 million units.

A rising number of developing countries provide aid bilaterally and through regional development funds. finance. tourism and manufacturing—particularly light manufacturing industries in which African countries have latent comparative advantage. Countries of the South provide grant aid on a smaller scale than traditional donors do but also give other forms of assistance. China and India are important providers of development assistance. technology. developing countries are participating actively in multilateral forums—the G20. concessional finance and technical assistance. Maoists evolved from an ill-equipped militia to become the country’s largest political party within 12 years. Although South Asia.62 In project-based lending.25 a day (in 2005 purchasing power parity terms) from 61% in 1981 to 36% in 2008. trade. Development assistance The rise of the South is influencing development cooperation bilaterally. and there are pioneering efforts to deliver regional public goods. the Maoist rebels are active in a large swathe of the country’s hinterlands. which has already begun to play out in the past decade and in other regions. Globally. In India. regionally and globally. they may not always have been very transparent. Brazil. but they do give greater priority to the needs identified by receiving countries. African consumers will continue to benefit from increased imports of affordable products. In this scenario. the Bretton Woods institutions and others— and giving impetus to reforms in global rules and practices. often without explicit conditions on economic policy or approaches to governance. loans. countries are innovating through partnerships that bundle investment.61 These disparities undermine the sustainability of progress because they create social and political tensions. Often. reduced the proportion of the population living on less than $1. telecommunications. opening up opportunities for less developed countries of the South to catch up and leading to a more balanced world. and indigenous industry responds to competitive pressure from imports and investment inflows by upgrading production. technology sharing and direct investments that promote economic growth with some degree of self-reliance. finance and intellectual property and establishing new arrangements. Given current trends. Regionally. which is substantial for countries in Sub-Saharan Table 2. But the process is proving difficult in countries where technological capabilities and infrastructure are less well developed. there is now a more complex and dynamic environment. this involves entwining conventional development assistance with trade.2 Different models of development partnerships Paris Declaration principle Ownership Harmonization Managing for results Mutual accountability Source: Adapted from Park (2011). in neighbouring Nepal. Countries of the South are reshaping global rules and practices in trade. there is now a more complex and dynamic environment contribute to more-­ inclusive growth. Bilaterally. policy conditionality eschewed 56 | Human Development Report 2013 .2). Instead of having a centre of industrialized countries and periphery of less developed countries. Traditional donors National development strategies outline priorities for donors Shared arrangements to minimize burden on recipients Recipient-led performance assessment practices Greater accountability through targets and indicators New development partners National leadership articulates need for specific projects Fewer bureaucratic procedures to minimize burden on recipients Focus on delivering aid quickly and at low cost Mutual respect of sovereignty. for example.Instead of having a centre of industrialized countries and periphery of less developed countries. trade and monetary arrangements are proliferating in all developing regions. ensuring a high degree of national ownership (table 2. host economies undergo structural change. Such expansion of domestic markets will be hampered by substantial pockets of deprivation and lagging regions within large developing countries. Flourishing local markets are likely to breed local entrepreneurs and attract more investment in extractive industries as well as in infrastructure. institutions and partnerships. New forms of cooperation Many developing countries are emerging as growth poles and drivers of connectivity and new relationships. more than half a billion people there remained extremely poor.

73 Trade and financial agreements Africa.7).74 There is scope to strengthen regional integration through practical measures such as streamlining transit. Source: HDRO. new partners have in recent years invested heavily in new infrastructure across low-income countries—resulting in. is in a joint venture with the South African company Rainbow in copper prospecting and mining in Zambia.70 Some of the largest financiers of infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa between 2001 and 2008 were regional banks and funds based in Arab States. The scale of their financial assistance. The regional development assistance architecture is also evolving through the regional development banks: the African Development Bank.65 The Export-Import Bank of India has extended $2. to Zambia for the development of small and medium-size enterprises.67 The new development partners from the South follow their own model of bilateral cooperation (box 2. In 2010. subregional and regional. But they have indirectly introduced competitive pressures for traditional donors and encouraged them to pay greater attention to the needs and concerns of developing countries. playing a countercyclical role. combined with their approach to conditionality. Of the total $3 billion in grants and loans that Zambia received between 2006 and 2009. There is much scope to strengthen regional integration through practical measures such as streamlining transit and transport procedures Chapter 2  A more global South | 57 . In November 2009.72 Box 2. Development partners in the South have not sought to engage with or overturn the rules of multilateral development assistance.69 This expands their choices.8 million loan to Zambia to procure nine mobile hospitals. a 10% increase in rail capacity and reduced price of telecommunications services. transport and customs procedures and harmonizing national regulatory schemes. China and India at work in Zambia The model of bilateral cooperation being practiced by new development partners from the South has been changing rapidly.68 Less developed countries can now look to more emerging partners for development support. disbursements by Brazil. these regional agreements have trumped political differences. Brazil has invested heavily in mining equipment at the Konkola Copper Mines in the Northwestern province of Zambia (managed by an Indian company). reaching $6  billion in 2008. it had 53 bilateral health agreements with 22 African countries.7 Brazil. followed by another line of credit of $50 million. the contribution of the new partners to Zambia’s overall development finance was small.4% ($3. Brazil and Zambia have also signed technical cooperation agreements covering livestock and health.64 China has complemented its investment flows and trade arrangements with finance and technical assistance for building hard infrastructure. countries and institutions from the South met 47% of official infrastructure financing for Sub-Saharan Africa. as foreign powers compete for influence. China and India made up less than 3%. Vale. China pledged to double concessional loans to $20 billion over the next three years.63 Brazil has transplanted its successful school grant programme and its programme for fighting illiteracy to its African partners. In 2011. the Export-Import Bank of China extended a $57. Until recently. for instance. a 35% improvement in electricity supply. to finance a hydroelectric power project. Development assistance from the Arab States has also made important contributions. In July 2012.66 Between 2001 and 2008.9 billion in lines of credit to Sub-Saharan African countries and has pledged to provide an additional $5  billion over the next five years. In contrast to many traditional donors’ focus on social sectors. Asia and Latin America have seen an expansion of trade agreements—bilateral. with an initial investment of about $400 million. This is the equivalent of 40% of Zambia’s total public external debt stock. access to local consumers and favourable investment terms. in tranches. Also in 2010.4 billion) of the aid provided by all multilateral institutions. the Asian Development Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank. greater regional integration has helped shield economies from global shocks. can enhance policy autonomy in less developed countries. India announced a line of credit of $75 million. In East Africa.Africa. the regional development banks together provided 18.71 Development assistance from regional development banks may become more important to low-income countries in the coming years (as may South–South development assistance) if policymakers in wealthy countries curtail aid commitments because of domestic economic and political challenges. The large Brazilian mining company. China and Zambia announced that China would extend a $1 billion concessional loan. In 2009. Kragelund 2013. In South Asia. There is also scope to lower tariffs on South–South trade in final products. a 42% increase over 2005.

Source: World Bank 2012a. According to data by the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute.6). China and India. China (SAR) Singapore Germany Thailand Algeria France Italy Mexico Malaysia Libya Indonesia 0 500 1.6 Emerging market economies have amassed large foreign exchange reserves since 1995 China Japan United States Russian Federation Saudi Arabia India Korea.000 2. to provide capital to projects that enhance productive capacities and economic and human development and 58 | Human Development Report 2013 .77 As of March 2011. Large foreign exchange reserves and sovereign wealth funds are not the most efficient insurance against financial shocks. Between 2000 and the third quarter of 2011. In a reversal of roles. these funds had an estimated $4. the global financial architecture is being shaped by the rising South’s vast financial reserves. not just Brazil. A number of countries. several countries of the South developed new monetary arrangements.500 3.5  trillion held by developing and emerging economies and $800 billion in East Asia alone.75 In the aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial crisis.3 trillion in assets at the end of 2010. Thailand and others have amassed pools of foreign exchange reserves as self-insurance against future financial downturns and crises (figure 2.000 Foreign exchange reserves ($ billions) 1995 Note: Includes holdings of gold. Developing countries with large reserve holdings generally transfer part of these to sovereign wealth funds. developing and emerging economies held 41 sovereign wealth funds. In addition. 2010 which are higher than those on North–South trade. 10 with assets of $100–$627 billion. which are transforming the financial architecture and creating space for countries to craft homegrown policies. Rep. The new lending arrangements emphasize pragmatism over ideology and conditionality.1 trillion. Mexico. This unprecedented accumulation of foreign exchange has opportunity costs both for the countries holding the reserves and for other developing countries. whose reserves totalled $6.Figure 2.78 The resources could be deployed in more productive ways to support the provision of public goods. Malaysia. these funds have been sought by the International Monetary Fund for assistance with the financial crisis in Europe. global foreign exchange reserves rose from $1.76 Some of these countries used their reserves to stimulate growth in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis. with a dominant share of the increase accumulated by emerging and developing countries.500 2. but also Indonesia.000 1. the Republic of Korea. Brazil Switzerland Hong Kong.8 trillion.9 trillion to $10. with $3.

nonbinding processes dedicated to finding common ground among countries.84 The rise of the South is also reflected in an array of bilateral arrangements to tackle climate change. will protect the Coral Triangle.to promote regional and subregional financial stability by increasing the resource pools of regional institutions. all G20 countries. understand each other’s perspectives and identify common solutions. Moreover. the African Union and the Common Market of the South have added migration to their agendas. reaching 47.82 Environmental protection The UN Conference on Sustainable Development in Rio de Janeiro demonstrated the promise of regional arrangements. the world’s richest coral reef that stretches from Malaysia and Indonesia to the Solomon Islands and provides food and livelihoods to more than 100 million people.80 ways intended to enable capacity building. tasked with ensuring greater accountability in institutions that set international financial standards. the voting power of developing and transition economies rose 3. which are informal. With climate-related natural disasters and rising sea levels threatening to undermine human development progress. Some of this activity is through regional consultations. advance aims consistent with human development and expand national policy space. reducing transaction costs associated with migration. The G20 has expanded its participation in such key global financial governance institutions as the Financial Stability Board. They have lowered barriers to communication and provided a venue for countries to come together. support the development of long-run productive capacities. enabling benefits from internal mobility and making mobility an integral part of national development strategies. Overall. The South is also gaining influence in the International Monetary Fund. multilayered and more heterogeneous financial architecture for the South. the emerging institutions and arrangements complement the global financial architecture. Likewise. These arrangements sometimes substitute for the Bretton Woods institutions. negotiated by governments from the Asia–Pacific region. most ambitiously the Berne Initiative 2001–2005.13 percentage points in 2010. emerging economies are having a transformative effect by pressing the Bretton Woods institutions to respond to concerns about representation.79 At the World Bank. such efforts could improve outcomes for migrants and destination communities by liberalizing and simplifying channels that allow people to seek work abroad. a group of regional development banks announced a $175 billion initiative to promote public transportation and bicycle lanes in some of the world’s largest cities. The changing financial landscape in the South has the potential to promote financial stability and resilience.81 As the 2009 Human Development Report recommended.19%. the rise of the South is infusing new patterns of resource accumulation into the global financial system and building a denser. the 2006 High Level Dialogue on Migration and Development hosted by the UN General Assembly and the subsequent creation of the Global Forum on Migration and Development. ensuring basic rights for migrants. These dialogues can be credited with paving the way for subsequent successful efforts on migration.83 At Rio+20. In the Congo River Basin. countries recognize that they have little choice but to formulate policies on adapting to climate change now and mitigating climate change for the future Chapter 2  A more global South | 59 . but in most cases. Many of these processes are interregional and straddle origin and destination regions in With climate-related natural disasters and rising sea levels threatening to undermine human development progress. One initiative. Migration policy Regional organizations such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. governance principles and the use of conditionalities. technical standardization and agreements on issues such as readmissions. are now represented in the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and the International Organization of Securities Commissions. as governments from the South showed how they are coming together to manage the resources they share. countries are working together against the illegal timber trade to conserve the world’s second largest rainforest. among others. where China has filled a newly created deputy managing director post and stands to become the third largest shareholder.

the rise of the South has been dramatic but is still in its early stages. for example. technology sharing through peer learning. is the world’s largest producer of solar panels and wind turbines. China.85 Countries in the South are also developing and sharing new climate-friendly technologies. Many of the fastest growing economies in this century rank low on human development. Regional collaboration and agreement may be a step in this direction. The rise of the South has underpinned rapid economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa and enhanced opportunities there for human development progress. even commodities. South–South trade blocs remain riddled with nontariff barriers that constrict the scale of trade possibilities. and provision of affordable products and innovative uses that meet the needs of the emerging entrepreneurial class. Policies that build human capabilities and domestic productive capacity will enable countries to avoid “the commodities trap” and diversify economic activity. South–South cooperation can help bring out the learning and diffusion potential in trading. The cooperation and participation of rising economies of the South in such agreements are vital to their success. the economic slowdown in developed countries has nudged the South to look towards regional demand. South–South partnerships can facilitate industrial diversification through FDI and joint ventures. economic. while India and the United States have forged a partnership to develop nuclear energy in India. Recently. indicating genuine interest in tackling the climate challenge. But climate change and the environment are inherently global issues that require global resolution through multilateral agreements. the fourth largest producer of wind energy in 2008.88 Already. While some have made progress on nonincome indicators. Multiply each story by the number of people in developing countries and the cumulative potential for a rising South across all regions is astounding. and this trend can go much further. others have not. investing and partnering in all industries. The daily headlines may carry dismal messages about world events. There is potential to expand development partnerships and regional and interregional cooperation.87 Regional. agreeing to cooperate on technology development and to establish region-specific carbon markets. India’s National Solar Mission helped spur a 62% increase in investment in solar energy to $12  billion.86 In 2011. This cooperation is already happening and can be scaled up substantially in the years ahead. Brazil made an 8% increase in investment in renewable energy technology to $7 billion. Chapter 3 explores this potential by identifying some of the core drivers that have enabled leading countries of the South to make rapid progress. and this trend can go much further there are higher returns and more-­ s ecure opportunities for South–South investment. 60 | Human Development Report 2013 . developing countries trade more among themselves than with the North. All said. The breadth of social. More than 100 developing countries recorded growth in income per capita of more than 3% in 2007. Governments should seize the growth momentum and embrace policies that convert rising incomes into human development. offering inspiration to other countries that might follow. A partnership between China and the United Kingdom will test advanced coal combustion technologies. Large foreign exchange reserves remain idle when developing countries trade more among themselves than with the North. Countries are. Sustaining progress in uncertain times The rise of the South was facilitated by a historic global expansion of trade and investment. bilateral and national initiatives in the South to mitigate climate change and protect environmental resources are positive steps. technological and entrepreneurial connectedness among developing countries today is unprecedented.countries recognize that they have little choice but to formulate policies on adapting to climate change now and mitigating climate change for the future. the fastest investment expansion of any large renewables market. But interspersed among these discouraging notes are frequent snippets reporting on entrepreneurial ventures and common-sense applications of new technologies by enterprising people in unexpected places.

With the right reforms. Chapter 2  A more global South | 61 . and the economic downturn in the North is adversely affecting the South. including a shift in policy orientation.Global prospects are uncertain.89 the promise of sustained human progress is stronger as a result of the shift within the world economy brought about by the rise of the South. however.

” Octavio Paz .“We cannot expect that all nations will adopt like systems. but in the dialectic between the two. for conformity is the jailer of freedom and the enemy of growth. Kennedy “Wisdom lies neither in fixity nor in change.” John F.

1990–2012 0. Tunisia. Uganda and Viet Nam (figure 3. Mali.3 0.04 0. several high achievers have not only boosted national income. Nevertheless. such as Bangladesh.2 Table 3. These high achievers include some of the largest countries—Brazil. Some countries were more successful in one aspect than the other: Brazil and Turkey did better on the nonincome dimensions of the Human Development Index (HDI).2 0. This chapter analyses the performance of a set of countries that. Mexico.10 Growth in GNI per capita. but also had better than average performance on social indicators in areas such as health and education.02 0 0. as mentioned in chapter 1. whereas China’s performance over 1990–2010 was dominated by growth in income (in part because when reforms began in the late 1970s.06 0.1 0. the group of countries whose improvements on the HDI stood out relative to the performance of peers between 1990 and 2012 includes least developed countries. Mauritius. Another way of identifying high achievers in human development is to look for countries that have been more successful in closing the “human development gap. Rep. Yet some underlying themes have been consistent.02 0.” as measured by the reduction in their HDI shortfall (the distance from the maximum HDI score).1 Some countries have performed well on both the nonincome and the income dimensions of the HDI Deviation from expected performance of nonincome dimensions of the HDI. Ghana. One way to identify high achievers is to look at countries with positive income growth and good performance on measures of health and education relative to other countries at comparable levels of development. their capacity to tap into global markets and their focus on social policy innovation. Indonesia. have substantially improved both income growth and the nonincome dimensions of human development. reduced its HDI shortfall more than all other countries Figure 3. China. Mozambique.04 0.4 0.3.1 lists 26 countries that were among either the top 15  developing countries that registered the largest reduction in HDI shortfall over 1990–20123 or the top 15 that registered the highest rates of annual growth in income per capita during the same period.3 0.1 Furthermore. 1990–2012 (%) High achievers in human development Note: Based on a balanced panel of 96 countries. Thailand. Many countries have made substantial progress over the past two decades: the rise of the South has been fairly broad-based.1 0 0.08 0. for instance. especially the poor. such as Lao PDR. Viet Nam Ghana Malaysia India Thailand Mauritius Chile China Others Chapter 3  Drivers of development transformation | 63 .1). their trajectories have often diverged. Rwanda and Uganda. namely health and education. Malaysia. the Republic of Korea. China’s achievements in health and education were already high). Source: HDRO calculations. This chapter looks at the experience of some of the more successful countries and at three of their common drivers: their proactive developmental states.2 0. The first set of countries successfully supplemented fast economic growth with social policies that benefit society more broadly. Chile. since 1990. Drivers of development transformation How have so many countries in the South transformed their human development prospects? Given their social and political diversity and their contrasting natural resource endowments. Uganda Tunisia Indonesia Brazil Turkey Bangladesh Mexico Korea. Turkey. China and India—as well ­ as smaller countries.

faster growth can enable countries to reduce debts and deficits and generate additional public revenues to step up investment in basic goods and services. And at the household level. Bangladesh. to improve living standards.617 0. since it is difficult to achieve much poverty reduction through redistribution alone at low income.305 0.3 1. despite lower economic growth than China. however. Nevertheless.502 0. Note: Based on a balanced panel of 96 developing countries.1 23.5 24.6 4.9 3. China Chile Saudi Arabia Argentina Malaysia Tunisia Turkey Qatar Mexico Algeria Panama Brazil Brunei Darussalam Viet Nam Mauritius Dominican Republic Myanmar Sri Lanka Guyana Lao PDR India Bangladesh Trinidad and Tobago Mozambique 1990 0. with much slower economic growth and half India’s per capita income. There is a lesson here: countries cannot rely on growth alone.666 0.569 0.715 0.2 2.410 0.775 0.498 0.6 35.834 0. is less impressive than its growth performance. Indeed.4 5.608 0. especially in health and education. improve living standards and enhance quality of life. 1990–2012 Average annual growth in gross national income per capita (%) Rank HDI (value) Country Korea.701 0.654 0.3 36. Iran.653 0. Their experience points to the second broad strategy that has paid human development dividends: giving primacy to state investment in people’s capabilities—especially their health. At the national level. higher income does not necessarily produce a corresponding improvement in .811 0.400 in 2012.3 34.3 26.6 43. environmental and other threats and shocks. This is not to say that economic growth does not matter.712 0. Rep.361 0.4 37.5 35. education and nutrition—and making their societies more resilient to economic.635 0. Brazil and Mexico. except Iran and the Republic of Korea.515 0.4 India’s economic performance has also been impressive.0 3.4 4. too.5 24. it will need further growth.626 0. the link between growth and human development is not automatic. India’s performance in accelerating human development.4 3.819 0.9 7. The Republic of Korea.379 0.5 It needs to be forged through pro-poor policies by concurrently investing in health and education. even though their growth in income per capita averaged only 1%–2% a year over 1990– 2012.4 31.439 0.Table 3.554 0.9 36.9 2. averaging nearly 5% income growth a year over 1990–2012. preventing the depletion and overexploitation of natural resources. had the biggest gains in HDI value.699 0.769 0.760 0.9 1. Source: HDRO calculations.6 35.1 33.543 0.202 2012 0.6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 21 25 28 30 31 36 39 45 47 49 72 1990–2012 4.3 4.9 15.722 0.782 0.782 0.2 1.636 0.6 3. India’s per capita income is still low. income growth helps meet basic needs.3 35.553 0.540 0.5 9.909 0.495 0.5 3.742 0.8 29. Islamic Rep. Among the top 15 countries in reducing HDI shortfall are Algeria.584 0.702 0.780 0.1 8 32 1 13 77 18 17 29 33 22 58 69 11 50 87 3 14 12 2 7 4 6 5 10 15 9 a.713 0. does nearly as well—and better on some indicators.8 27.4 34.5 3.749 0.8 0.3 27.6 2.5 39.0 34. Poor countries with many poor people need higher incomes.4 3.7 26.9 40. expanding decent jobs.1 Selected developing countries that registered large reductions in HDI shortfall or high rates of growth in gross national income per capita. Reduction in the distance from the maximum HDI score. As the 1993 and 1996 Human Development Reports argued. Nevertheless. ranking third in income growth and among the top 20 in HDI improvement.743 0.730 0.7 3. Sri Lanka.855 0.9 3. Viet Nam also fared well. ensuring gender balance and equitable income distribution and avoiding unnecessary displacement of communities. around $3.685 0.702 0.4 5.7 –0.327 Reduction in HDI shortfalla (%) Rank 1990–2012 63.590 0. has had high income growth as well as a notable 64 | Human Development Report 2013 reduction in HDI shortfall despite years of internal conflict.562 0.737 0.9 4.8 28.

most adult men operated as independent proprietors. On the eve of its revolution in 1790. In the northern parts of the Americas the native population was not abundant. elites can establish a legal framework that locks in their influence. Chapter 3  Drivers of development transformation | 65 . there was reliance on labourers of European descent with Source: Engerman and Sokoloff 2002. Haiti today is the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere. after the Seven Years War between the British and the French (1756–1763). the links between economic growth and human development have snapped several times. farming households may see income grow while lacking a village school or health centre. Populations in large cities. but also often perpetuated by institutions and policies. Take. This new perspective recognizes that development does not happen automatically and that transformation cannot be left to markets alone. Initial conditions have considerable influence on the pace of countries’ current and future development. rootless growth. advantaging the elite who could assemble large companies of slaves. Several centuries later the former proved to be more successful than other economies in the hemisphere. we can infer that it is national forces policies. which is based on unbridled exploitation of environmental resources. where three distinct types of colonies took shape in the 1700s. it was probably the richest country in the New World. or Liberia and Senegal—have ended up with different outcomes. for example. abundant in minerals and natives. with ownership of large tracts of land being a requirement for citizenship. which does not increase employment opportunities. In Spanish America. as in many other countries.1). About half the progress in development. • Determined social policy innovation. In fact. the This chapter identifies three drivers of transformation: a proactive developmental state. depending on the initial conditions of soil. the Americas. pollution and traffic congestion. high human capital and more equal distribution of wealth. severe horizontal inequalities persist between indigenous populations and those of European descent. but they are not destiny “Initial conditions” have profound impacts. Chile and Venezuela.6 What accounts for the superior generation of growth and its conversion into human development? What are the policy lessons from Box 3. Yet history and initial conditions are not insurmountable barriers. In societies that began with high inequality. Hoff 2003. climate and native inhabitancy. No country remains a prisoner of history for long if it wants to break out. tapping of global markets and determined social policy innovation History and initial conditions matter. and futureless growth. The distribution of wealth and human capital was extremely unequal. rather. institutions. In rural areas. Countries that start at a similar level—such as India and Pakistan. Thorp and Paredes 2011. Because of abundant land and low capital requirements. soil and climate made colonies suited for the production of large-scale lucrative commodities. • Tapping of global markets. centrally managed precepts. the British debated whether to take Canada or Guadeloupe as reparation. as certain characteristics are not only difficult to change.human well-being. they challenge preconceived and prescriptive approaches: on the one hand. social context and idiosyncratic shocks that drive national development outcomes. Malaysia and the Philippines. Thus. they are demonstrated by the transformational development experiences of many countries in the South. Instead. The 1996 Human Development Report identified six unwelcome types of growth: jobless growth. they diverge from the unfettered liberalization espoused by the Washington Consensus. they are not the only things that matter (box 3. typically report high income per capita. Similarly. Elites served the Spanish crown and maintained their status after independence. Income inequality persisted across racial lines. but they also have high levels of crime. Indeed. In the Caribbean. which is accompanied by rising inequality. These drivers suggest an evolution towards a new approach. These drivers are not derived from abstract conceptions of how development should work.1 the diverse human development experiences of these countries? Indeed. over the past 30 years is unexplained by the initial HDI value in 1980. but average global achievements have not changed. authorities distributed land resources to the Spanish colonists. In Peru today. in which the state is a necessary catalyst that pragmatically adjusts its policies and actions in line with new realities and the challenges of global markets. measured by the HDI. which denies the participation of the most vulnerable communities. on the other hand. if countries with similar starting points go on divergent development paths. and soil and climate did not lend themselves to economies of scale. what are the drivers of transformation? This chapter identifies three: • A proactive developmental state. ruthless growth. which in turn enables them to maintain high inequality to their benefit. voiceless growth. Nonetheless. As the 2010 Human Development Report argued. they set aside a number of collectivist. for example. UNDP 2010a. which uses inappropriate models transplanted from elsewhere.

the state operates differently from the conventional welfare state. developmental states have been proactive: initiating and monitoring transformations in people’s lives. However. like the recent commodity boom as a result of the rise of the South. that their views are taken into account in decisionmaking and that they are actively involved in setting the agenda. have faced different sets of challenges and adopted varying policies on market regulation. can help begin growth acceleration but not sustain it. broad A common feature of countries that have brought about transformational development is a strong.14 Rather than merely being market-friendly.8 Policies must be aimed at facilitating transformation by identifying barriers to and potential catalysts of changes. Although not pursued everywhere. institutions. Some countries go further and add an additional feature: a bureaucracy with the power and authority to plan and implement policies. focused economic and institutional reforms appear to have statistically and quantitatively significant impacts on how sustained growth accelerations are. not by implementing a long list of policies and reforms. The term refers to a state with an activist government and often an apolitical elite that sees rapid economic development as their primary aim. these states have been development-friendly. In this process.state needs to mobilize society through policies and institutions that advance economic and social development. Instead. However.12 When a country is already growing fast. Driver 1: a proactive developmental state Development is about changing a society to enhance people’s well-being across generations— enlarging their choices in health.7 In some notable cases.2). shared norms and values. The state has a critical role in that. industrial development and technological adaptation and progress. this is not a universal prescription. innovative social programmes are often also people-friendly­ —a necessary progression in the move from a focus on growth to human development. High growth rates and improved living standards in turn provide the state apparatus and the ruling elites their legitimacy. The way these three elements are translated into policies is context-specific. proactive state—also referred to as a “developmental state”. 66 | Human Development Report 2013 . development progress is guided by a long-term vision. depending on country characteristics.13 In many high-performing developing countries. 11 Successful countries have grown fast by gradually removing binding constraints to progress. education and income and expanding their freedoms and opportunities for meaningful participation in society. export promotion. viewing development as transformation demands consideration of these intangible factors as well as an understanding of how they affect the organization of society and interact with individual policies and reforms. strong bureaucratic capacities and appropriate policies are essential elements that together shape the transformation process. Those with strong. Countries that have succeeded in igniting sustained growth. the challenge is to remove or anticipate future constraints as they become actually or potentially binding. and rules and institutions that build trust and cohesion. proactive state —also referred to as a “developmental state” participation of people. A common feature of countries that have brought about such transformations is a strong. is conducive to sustainable long-term development—as is consistent political leadership backed by strong technocratic teams that can ensure institutional memory and continuity of policy (box 3. Positive terms of trade shocks. which aims to correct market failures and build social safety nets while promoting market-led growth. societies and individuals need to set their own objectives and identify the strategies and policies that can achieve them. in the sense that they are being listened to. Country ownership of development strategy. government capacities and relationships with the rest of the world. Further.10 One study using cross-country data for 1950–2005 found that the vast majority of takeoffs in growth are not generated by substantial economic reforms and that most substantial economic reforms do not yield takeoffs in growth.9 There is no simple recipe for connecting human development and economic growth or for accelerating growth.

such as direct taxes and subsidy interventions favouring specific industries. Common traits include promoting economic development by explicitly favouring certain sectors. 16 Nonetheless. when the United States had attained industrial supremacy. China (SAR). Singapore and Taiwan Province of China in the second half of the 20th century. But evidence of the relationship between authoritarianism and development is mixed. Even after the Second World War. However. By the 1870s. In the same period it invested heavily in infrastructure (Pacific railways. aircraft.3). Yet. railways. promoting research and development. Recently. It also encouraged domestic production by raising import tariffs on many industrial products. Evidence across industries from studies of the benefits of industry protection is ambiguous. such as improving infrastructure and technological adoption. Chang 2010. In many sectors. • Republic of Korea. industries.17 Many subsequent reforms created the infrastructure of a modern country. It also provided targeted protection to support the emergence of heavy industries. Midwestern canals and agricultural infrastructure). and hydroelectric power). Between 1830 and 1945. it can be difficult to attribute the success or failure of a particular industry to specific trade policies because government interventions are guided by multiple motives. Edigheji 2010. the state may foster industries believed to have a latent comparative advantage or seek to elevate those that are stuck in static comparative advantage. is widely considered the father and inventor of the infant industry argument. public education and banking laws. the first US treasury secretary. After the Second World War France initiated planning by the Planning Commission. higher education. telegraphs and telephone. although limited in scope due to a lack of legitimacy. Since the 1950s. railroads. there is a distinction between the general desirability of “soft” industrial policies. Japan has long acted as a developmental state. There is no global prescription. going back to the early days of the republic. Its welfare policy Source: Evans 2010.Box 3. As a result. The government built and operated state-owned plants in industries ranging from cotton to shipbuilding. The Swedish state developed strategic sectors through public-­ private partnerships (iron and steel. Internet) and health (drugs. commanding competent bureaucracies. competent public institutions at the centre of development strategies. Block 2008. including a unified currency. universities and research institutions. Another characteristic of developmental states is their pursuit of industrial policies to redress coordination problems and externalities by “managing” comparative advantage. with sectoral industrial policy led by elite bureaucrats and the aggressive use of stateowned enterprises. Block (2008) argues that the state has focused on translating cutting-­edge technological research into commercial use through cooperation among a network of people with high levels of technological expertise situated in state agencies. Between 1960 and 1980. was closely integrated with strategies to promote structural change towards high-productivity sectors. genetic engineering).15 For example. Developmentalism has lived in the shadows of US policy because acknowledging the state’s central role in promoting technological change is inconsistent with the claim that the private sector should be left alone to respond to market signals autonomously. unstable funding and other limitations caused by its “hidden” nature. the Republic of Korea had significant One characteristic of developmental states is their pursuit of industrial policies to redress coordination problems and externalities by “managing” comparative advantage Chapter 3  Drivers of development transformation | 67 . the developmental state survived. and “hard” industrial policies. from revenue generation to protection of special interests. the Republic of Korea. several industries that benefited from tariff protection subsequently succeeded in world markets. the United States had some of the highest trade barriers in the world. whose efficacy depends on country circumstances. patriotic businessmen and merchants and government that were focused on economic modernization”. Alexander Hamilton. Since the end of the Second World War. clearly articulating social and economic goals. and research and development. That some East Asian developmental states were not democracies has prompted many to think that the developmental state model is also autocratic. The United States has a long history of being a developmental state. the US developmental state has been quite successful.2 What is a developmental state? Need it be authoritarian? The recent literature on developmental states has grown out of the experiences of the East Asian “miracle” economies: Japan before the Second World War and Hong Kong. Japan has undergone a fundamental transformation from aid recipient to donor (box 3. the Scandinavian countries have also acted as a type of developmental state. and deriving political legitimacy from their record in development. Democratic countries such as Japan and the United States have functioned as developmental states. it had a group of “well-educated. and despite the rise of market fundamentalism. • Japan. though: what worked in East Asia may not work in Latin America. the United States has developed international competitiveness through public funding for research and development and through public procurement for defence (computers. placing robust. where political legitimacy is derived from the welfare state and full employment rather than from rapid growth. China and Viet Nam (as well as Cambodia and Lao PDR) can be seen as developmental states.

President. supported by revenues from newfound oil wealth. promoting opportunities while protecting against downside risks success.4 for the transformative potential of strategic investments in agriculture). They have outgrown their traditional role as complements to North–South cooperation and are now an indispensable source of knowledge sharing and innovation for many developing countries. having strong political leadership. They should be people-centred. Japan International Cooperation Agency number of years before finally becoming only a donor as the first Asian member of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in 1964. making it a leading producer of soybeans and other agricultural products. for example. As early as 1975. South–South cooperation and triangular cooperation have grown rapidly in recent years. An emerging challenge now is to scale up South–South and triangular cooperation as a central approach in development cooperation. Governing institutions and policies are profoundly and inextricably linked.3 Japan and triangular cooperation Bolstered by the remarkable economic performance of emerging countries. From the mid-1970s. • Indonesia. one cannot succeed without the other. known as the Cerrado. a developmental state must get policy priorities right. the government achieved a position of dominance over its business class through a series of reforms. After 1961. nurturing selected industries. including measures that increased the institutional coherence of the state. and developing countries’ rapidly emerging as new donors. Indonesia complemented import-­ substituting industrialization with a major thrust in agriculture and rural development (see box 3. a developmental state must get policy priorities right. thus reducing unemployment and increasing real wages. with the South in the driver’s seat. when the supply of surplus labour had been exhausted. Setting policy priorities More important than getting prices right. Japan and Mozambique. Subsequently. which offered higher wages. There are four virtues and merits of South–South and triangular cooperation: the benefits accrued from sharing knowledge and experience among peers to find more effective solutions. committing to long-term reforms. It also avoided the capture of state policies on subsidies. knowledge and appropriate technology among developing countries can play a very useful role in development cooperation and thus warranted donor support. many countries prioritize job creation and poverty reduction. but centred on control over finance. promoting opportunities while protecting against Box 3. They should be people-centred. having first been a net foreign aid recipient then playing a dual role as aid recipient and emerging donor for a downside risks. The two countries now extend collaborative support to Mozambique to develop that country’s vast savannah. it was able to guide a shift from import substitution to export promotion. By the early 1990s. Governments have partnered with the private sector to develop comparative advantage in the most promising sectors while ensuring effective macroeconomic management and promoting innovation. 68 | Human Development Report 2013 . respecting real ownership. fostering state-market complementarities. such as the creation of the Economic Planning Board. 19 Then in the mid-1980s.More important than getting prices right. Japan recognized the value of South–South and triangular cooperation and began a large-scale triangular training programme. This strategy of balanced growth increased the demand for labour. Getting policies and policy priorities right raises the equally important issue of getting policymaking right. They have also paid special attention to expanding social opportunities by setting policy priorities. while avoiding excessive aid fragmentation among an increasing number of development actors. Japan had experienced a development trajectory similar to that of some emerging countries today. learning by doing and boosting public investment. This development pathway led Japan to believe that sharing development experience. drawing in surplus labour from agriculture to work in manufacturing. Policies also change at different stages of development: at early stages. A prime example is the cooperation among Brazil.18 Other rising countries of the South have pursued similar policies. Japan helped Brazil develop its own tropical savannah region. poverty reduction continued primarily through wage increases. as oil income began to decline. Indonesia shifted from import substitution to outward-oriented industrialization. It is thus important to have policy processes managed by committed people in effective and responsive government structures. sharing appropriate technology and experience that can promote convergence with North–South cooperation goals. Akihiko Tanaka.

Also. such as agricultural extension services and irrigation systems. Fan and Saurkar 2006. Such outcomes naturally depend on a country’s stage of development and on how well the money is spent.2). education and infrastructure development in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa than in the high-­ performing countries of East and Southeast Asia. on the other hand. governments can make useful contributions in this area. Its research is based at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences. Similarly.4 Investing in agriculture Strategic investments in the agricultural sector can have transformative effects. Consequently. demands that improvement in poor people’s lives not be postponed. The System for Agricultural Research and Innovation has contributed greatly to the nearly fourfold growth in agricultural efficiency per worker. The Brazil Agricultural Research Corporation. Higher crop yields not only lead to improved livelihoods for farmers. as emphasized by the “Washington Consensus”. they also increase demand for goods and services in rural areas. A human development approach. is also beneficial. farmers must respect zoning laws. to qualify for price support and credit programmes. higher previous public spending per capita on health is associated with better child survival and lower under-five child mortality rates (figure 3. reducing the share of food in household expenditures and creating markets for other sectors of the economy. From the lower levels of health. Stads and Beintema 2009. Thus.100 research institutions. A global cross-country analysis shows a positive correlation between previous public expenditure per capita on health and education and current human development achievement (figure 3. Moderagro. education and other public services—is not an appendage of the growth process but an integral part of it. Each phase thus involved a people-­ centred approach in which the growth strateg y was modified in response to changing conditions. Countries should put in place checks and balances to prevent reckless borrowing sprees and wasteful spending. education and other public services—is not an appendage of the growth process but an integral part of it Chapter 3  Drivers of development transformation | 69 . their composition and the efficiency with which they are delivered. a state-owned enterprise. Produsa provides credit for planting on agricultural land that has degraded soil and Propflora uses credit to encourage the planting of forests (particularly palm oil). 2011a. Nestorova and Olofinbiyi 2010. In addition to the levels of public expenditures. For example. World Bank 2012a.3). Asian and Latin American countries show that increased public spending on agriculture is particularly good for promoting growth. China is becoming a leader in South–South cooperation with African countries. arguing that other human development improvements would follow. Disaggregating agricultural expenditure into research and nonresearch spending shows that research spending is especially effective. performs a critical role. many of Brazil’s agricultural programmes were developed with sustainability in mind. people-friendly developmental states are those that expand a number of basic social services (box 3. provides farmers with credit to improve agricultural practices and preserve natural resources. investing in people’s capabilities—through health. where an estimated 41% of 2006 agricultural research spending in Latin America occurred. China has the world’s largest agricultural research and development system in the world. Both outcomes are possible because of the many different uses of public capital in developing countries.20 In this view. Provision of other public goods. influence the effective delivery of public services and expansion of capabilities. it is reasonable to infer that public investment. Another programme. investing in people’s capabilities—through health. Source: OECD 2006. The effectiveness of public expenditure differs across countries.Box 3. Bangladesh has sustained growth in part by increasing the rate of public investment over time while avoiding the fiscal deficits that have plagued the rest of the region. many of which are now benefiting from its research. Fan. • Bangladesh. universities and the Chinese Academy of Science.5). giving rise to new opportunities for economic development. Agricultural technology has also been a strength of Brazil. There has been much debate about whether public investment crowds in or crowds out private investment. which together comprise of more than 1. has been instrumental in increasing the land area used for cultivation. Recent studies on several African. as well as its composition. Enhancing public investment Traditional economic and social policy thinking. They may also lead to lower food prices. focused on getting economic fundamentals right as a precondition for economic growth. all taken together. Agricultural research is a public good and tends to be underprovided by the private sector.

5% in 2011–2012.Box 3. Following the reforms of Nurturing selected industries the 1990s. these investments paid off when India was unexpectedly able to capitalize Governments can encourage a market-­ on its stock of skilled workers in emergent disciplined private sector by adopting a information technolog y–enabled indusdynamic view of comparative advantage. reforms to strengthen national institutions’ transparency and accountability and to limit the scope of corruption are necessary to improve the quality of governance and efficiency of governments. On the contrary. India increased central government spending on social services and rural development from 13.24 Similar tales of capacity building can be told for India’s automobile.4% in 2006–2007 to 18. it has enabled sevpatents only to processes.1% in 2009–2010 and to 25% in 2011–2012. India granted rent seeking and cronyism. Poland has helped Iraq with small and medium-­ size enterprise development. 70 | Human Development Report 2013 . It noted that economic variables accounted for less than a third of the risks contributing to individual exclusion. chemidrivers of export success once their economies cal and service industries. tapping into world markets.21 And social services as a proportion of total expenditure rose from 21. For decades after independence in 1947. corruption and lengthy procedures for business startups were associated with high social exclusion.6% in 2006–2007 to 24. import-substituting industrialization. functional and accessible labour market institutions were found to be important. For long stretches.5 Eastern Europe and Central Asia: where North meets South Connecting the North and the rising South is the transforming East. Labour  informality. the Russian Federation and Turkey. Kazakhstan. nomic strategies. tries. A dynamic view of comparative advantage has enabled several countries to turn inefficient industries unable to withstand foreign competition into drivers of export success once their economies became more open controlled trade and investment. The first phase of the transformation began with a sharp drop in living standards and human development. • India. India followed a strategy of state. for inclusive growth and societies. which by 2011–2012 were generating nurturing sectors that would not other$70  billion in export earnings. the overall experience underscores the importance of social inclusion and a responsible role of the state. creating a system that became increasingly laden with bureaucratic intricacies (the “licence Raj”). While each country managed a subsequent recovery under varying political and economic conditions. not to products. have also become emerging donors. there was a deliberate policy to build human capabilities and invest in world-class tertiary education. During these periods. eral countries of the South to turn industries which encouraged firms to reverse engipreviously derided as inefficient and unable neer and become world leaders in generic to withstand foreign competition into early drugs. Many countries of the region are now active members of the European Union. They. Another 22 wise emerge due to incomplete markets. however.• Brazil. industry built during the inward-looking Although this poses some political risks of years is pharmaceuticals. now vigorously became more open. By contrast.23 During these years. In recent years Romania has shared its experience conducting elections with Egypt and Tunisia. The  2011  Regional Human Development Report for Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States showed a negative correlation between Human Development Index values and measures of social exclusion in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. A major lesson from two decades of transition is that the state has a critical role in creating an environment Source: HDRO. The emerging donors are also active in bilateral or trilateral exchange of knowledge with countries with common heritage or beyond. Its experience in managing a rapid transition from centrally planned to market economies holds useful policy lessons for developing countries elsewhere. UNDP 2011b. Abruptly abandoning areas of responsibility by the state or insisting on rapid privatization of all state-owned companies may prove very costly for societies in the long run. with aid disbursements exceeding $4 billion in 2011. though perhaps neglecting primary education. because employment facilitates inclusion. the Czech Republic has cooperated with Azerbaijan on environmental impact assessments and Slovakia has assisted Moldova and Montenegro in public finance management. retaining these responsibilities does not mean keeping the earlier structures intact. together with Croatia. Yet at the same time. Eastern Europe and Central Asia accounts for 5% of world population and output. Brazil also experimented with inward-oriented ecoled. It inhibited the private sector while beindividual firms that benefited from large stowing wide powers on technocrats who • India.

especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. 2012 1.domestic markets were not encouraged to export and compete globally.28 With proactive government policies in labour-­ intensive subsectors of manufacturing and agriculture. over the past 10 years. .5 0. . Such patterns of growth were often led by small-scale agriculture as in Taiwan Province of China and by labour-intensive export-oriented manufacturing in Hong Kong. for example.7 0.29 Such policies. Africa’s labour force expanded by 91 million people but added only 37 million jobs in wage-paying sectors. Republic of Korea. Singapore and Taiwan Province of China— expanded employment 2%–6% a year before the 1990s. Analysing the performance of Mauritius Chapter 3  Drivers of development transformation | 71 .2 Current HDI values and previous public expenditures are positively correlated . This was true for Malaysia and Thailand in the 1970s. but also Figure 3. the Republic of Korea and Singapore. require not only investing in young people’s education and training. Africa is projected to create up to 72 million jobs by 2020.3 .8 0. .26 The first generation of fast-growing Asian economies—Hong Kong. 2000 Source: HDRO calculations based on World Bank (2012a).27 The success of some Asian countries— such as the Republic of Korea and later Thailand—holds lessons for less developed economies. 2000 Source: HDRO calculations and World Bank (2012a). 2010–2011 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Log of public expenditure on health per capita. China and Indonesia in the 1980s and India and Viet Nam in the 1990s. Prioritizing job creation Pragmatic policies aimed at creating secure and remunerative jobs are likely to strengthen the link between economic growth and human development. hospitality and construction. Embraer. while raising productivity and wages.9 0.0 0. as well as retail. as are current child survival and previous public expenditure on health Log of under-five mortality rate. improving infrastructure aimed at economic diversification and removing obstacles to private entrepreneurship. is now the world’s leading producer of regional jet commercial aircraft of up to 120 seats. But when they did so. Figure 3.6 0.30 • Mauritius. an additional 18  million jobs over present growth levels.25 The country’s steel and shoe industries also grew under public ownership. they were able to rely on capacities built up over decades.4 0. such as lack of finance and onerous regulations. The possibilities of labour-­ intensive growth are higher when countries are at a lower level of industrialization. HDI. with research and development augmenting capabilities for domestic innovation.2 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Log of public expenditure on health and education per capita. however. .3 0. Evidence from Asia suggests that countries with simultaneously high rates of growth and poverty reduction also rapidly expanded employment. because they created jobs two to three times faster when they were at a comparable level of development. For example. China (SAR). China (SAR).

35 • Uganda.32 • Bangladesh. Developmental states. as well as in commercial farming : the number of stable jobs in agriculture increased from 519.2% a year. jobs in tourism services have increased over the past decade. even though its share in total output typically declines over time. Expansion in jobs does not always have to come from export-oriented manufacturing. The stimulus.9% and the share of workforce in agriculture declined from 55. The more rapid decline in poverty in the 1990s compared with the 1980s33 was attributed to both the expansion of labour-­ intensive exports (such as garments and fisheries) and the increase in employment in the rural nonfarm sector (comprising small and cottage industries.39 As these examples suggest. one study finds that during the first decade (1982–1990). Most successful developmental states have introduced industrial and related policies that enhance the private sector’s potential to contribute to human development. however.1% of the workforce to 37.31 Unemployment dropped from 20% to below 3%. Thailand increased its share of stable jobs by 11 percentage points (as Brazil did between 1970 and 1988). Like Rwanda’s. Uganda’s high growth during the 1990s was poverty alleviating because of income growth in agriculture through large scale absorption of labour. 80% of annual economic growth was accounted for by new employment and capital accumulation. Development progress cannot be left to markets alone. The larger point is that human development–oriented policies require both growth and an equitable expansion of opportunities. for example. an inflow of remittances and growing exports. such as formal education and industry-specific training.37 • Indonesia. construction and other nontradable services). Indonesia before the 1997 Asian financial crisis stood out for pursuing growth that had a high labour intensity. hospitality and construction. therefore. While Thailand has since become a manufacturing powerhouse. patterns of growth are rarely consistently pro-poor over consecutive decades. Skilled and unskilled jobs. This is because developmental transformation is synonymous with the change in the structure of production and sectors differ in their capacities to create jobs.000 in 1960 to nearly 3  million in 2008. have to be conscious that the nature of growth (and the intensity of labour use in sectors that drive growth) evolves as the economy transforms. however.34 • Rwanda. millions of stable jobs continue to be created in nonmanufacturing sectors such as retail. In Rwanda. when some of the development gains were reversed. Some markets not only fail to function. The sector now sees export earnings that exceed those from coffee and tea and employs nearly 75. Economic growth in the next decade (1991–1999).000 people. Fostering state–market complementarities Both markets and governments can fail. but may not exist at all at early stages of development. with the number of jobs growing 5.5%. and to respond with matching investments in people’s skills over two decades. came less from productivity improvements within this sector than from rising demand facilitated by an increase in crop production. especially in the cash crops sector that was buoyed by world prices and improvement in agriculture’s terms of trade.1% to 43.states have to be conscious that the nature of growth (and the intensity of labour use in sectors that drive growth) evolves as the economy transforms. but there are synergies when they work together. and they need then to respond with matching investments in people’s skills.38 Post-crisis. 72 | Human Development Report 2013 . require a different mix of complementary inputs. especially by creating jobs in new sectors. Overall.36 • Thailand. was driven less by accumulation of capital and more by the productivity growth of workers. whose employment pattern of the 1960s is comparable to that of many Sub-Saharan African countries today. Between 1990 and 1996 alone. Developing countries endowed with arable land can continue to create stable jobs in agriculture. in the 1990s alone. formal nonagricultural employment increased from 28. Real wages increased at an average annual rate of 5% for two decades preceding the crisis. This is the case in Thailand. a result of investment in human capabilities. the proportionate increase in poverty was lowest for agricultural workers.

But the institutional innovations that went on to underpin China’s transformation resembled Deng Xiaoping’s approach to “crossing the river People-friendly developmental states need strong political leadership committed to equity and sustainability Chapter 3  Drivers of development transformation | 73 . Tunisia has relied on financial and fiscal incentives to attract foreign and domestic capital to export-oriented industries. • China. from rural to urban. linking career development to the achievement of central objectives of modernization and economic progress.42 It also has the potential to export health services by providing treatment to visitors from neighbouring countries. Since the early 1970s.48 Trade openness and prudent monetary and fiscal policy followed. the government had implemented macroeconomic reforms to control hyperinflation through the Real Plan and concluded the trade liberalization that had begun in 1988 with tariff reductions and the removal of other restrictions. China has experienced a “complex and interlocking set of changes: from a command to a market economy. from a fragmented set of fairly self-sufficient provincial economies to a more integrated economy. and the education levels of officials have risen continuously.45 The scale of these changes required a committed state pursuing a long-term vision to build the necessary institutions and capacities.44 Committing to long-term development and reform Achieving enduring transformation is a longterm process that requires countries to chart a consistent and balanced approach to development. • China.• Turkey.43 • Chile. food and automobiles—all industries with a high capacity to absorb labour. to a value equivalent to a quarter of Tunisia’s private health sector output. The leadership deliberately replaced the old guard. from agriculture to manufacturing and services. a remarkable 90% of officials above the county level had been appointed since 1982. the outcome of any particular policy is inevitably uncertain. The state created favourable economic conditions that encouraged construction and the manufacture of furniture. After returning to democracy in the 1990s. China’s reform and opening resulted from an explicit choice in the late 1970s to relax constraints on people’s participation in economic decisions. particularly for garment production.40 • Tunisia. with a younger. Chile encouraged investment and technological upgrading in sectors where the country had an intrinsic comparative advantage. from informal to formal economic activities. This requires a balanced approach to development and an ability to convert crises into opportunities for introducing broad-based economic reforms. Tunisia is among the top five exporters of apparel to the European Union. Turkey’s export basket has since moved towards products that involve more processing. Developmental states need to be pragmatic and test a range of different approaches. Since market-oriented reforms in the late 1970s. By the time the Brazilian transformation to a developmental state began (around 1994).41 Various forms of business–­ g overnment relations have enhanced industrial upgrading and promoted industry clusters. In large and complex societies. who might have been expected to resist change. but they are generally inadequate. It subsidized the formation and operation of innovation-based consortia between private firms and universities and engaged in other innovation-promoting activities. higher technology content and the use of skilled labour. Some technical or managerial solutions may appear to be attractive quick fixes. By 1988. more open and better educated government bureaucracy.46 Capacity upgrading is still a priority. The Chinese bureaucracy has been designed with a strong results orientation. Effective leadership aligns the long-term goals of policymakers and enables constituencies to appreciate the state’s work in fostering individual capabilities and social integration for human development. Today. as did innovative social programmes that reduced poverty and income inequality. textiles. • Brazil. and from an economy that was fairly shut off from the world to a powerhouse of international trade”.47 People-friendly developmental states need strong political leadership committed to equity and sustainability.

successful and sustained progress is more likely to be the result As countries develop.50 The gradual approach reflected the pragmatism of Chinese leaders. according to national circumstances. submit a share of produce at fixed prices to the state and sell the surplus. and there is no evidence that in the post-war period inward-looking economies have systematically developed faster than those that have been more open. growth cannot be sufficiently explained by average tariff and nontariff barriers. which have vigorously tapped opportunities presented by globalization by expanding their share of exports in world markets between 1990 and 2010. Some influential cross-national studies in the 1990s purported to show that rapidly opening up would automatically lead to high economic growth.59 As countries develop. Next came the expansion of the township and village enterprises.57 Country studies confirm that what is needed is a package that involves the interaction of reforms in trade.61 As the more populous countries deepen their 74 | Human Development Report 2013 . they tend to dismantle trade barriers and become more open of gradual and sequenced integration with the world economy. the countries that were considered to have implemented such policies posted growth rates that were 1. few countries have developed successfully by shunning international trade or long-term capital flows. very few have sustained growth without increasing their trade to output ratio. however. Driver 2: tapping of global markets A common element of the fast-developing countries of the South has been to strengthen the capabilities of people and the competencies of firms while embracing global markets.by feeling the stones”. institutions and infrastructure. one of the first countries in the South to pursue an export-oriented development strategy. exchange rates. the average increase in trade to output ratio of countries considered to be rapid improvers on the HDI between 1990 and 2012 was about 13 percentage points higher than that of more modest improvers.2 reconfirms this for a selected group of high human development–achieving countries discussed in this chapter.1 in chapter 2. The only exception in this group is Mauritius.52 Indeed. Table 3. In a sample of 95 developing countries and transitional economies.1 in chapter 2). that countries can ignite growth simply by dismantling trade and investment barriers.55 Actual development experiences from the South have demonstrated a more nuanced consensus. adopt foreign knowhow and technology and use them to sell to global markets. investment rates that were 1. no fewer than 40% of China’s national regulations were deemed experimental.49 Between 1979 and 1989.60 HDRO analysis of the association between the change in trade openness and relative improvement in HDI value between 1990 and 2010 supports this conclusion (see box 2.54 In particular. monetary and institutional policies.5–2 percentage points higher and trade to output ratios that were 5 percentage points higher. Another reason for this pragmatism was the perception that the transition was impossible to plan. As discussed in box 2. and accompanied by investment in people.53 This experience does not mean. But these were subsequently found to have significant methodological limitations. whose share in world exports peaked in 2001.5 percentage points higher. This has enabled them to source intermediate inputs and capital goods at competitive world prices. But those that did make big improvements in HDI value typically increased their trade to output ratio or established a global network of trade links of substantial bilateral value. compounded by disillusionment with the whole planning system.56 In this view.51 All newly industrializing countries have pursued a strategy of “importing what the rest of the world knows and exporting what it wants”. The first set of agrarian reforms permitted farmers to lease land. almost all countries with substantial improvement in HDI value over the past two decades have also become more integrated with the world economy. 58 A recent study finds that more decisive benefits come from trade liberalization embedded in broader reforms: in the post-liberalization period between 1950 and 1998. they tend to dismantle trade barriers and become more open. and fiscal. Not all countries that increased trade openness made big improvements in HDI value relative to their peers.

042 0. China was ready to expand its external interactions. iron and steel.integration with the world economy. By the early 1990s.232 1. China was already the destination of more than 10% of worldwide FDI inflows. transfer technology or meet high requirements for domestic content. up from only 15. as the situation demanded.041 1.852 Gradual and sequenced integration Rather than opening suddenly to world markets. helping lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty in a few decades. 10 years after the reforms began. but further cuts were spread Note: Values are averages for 1985–1990 and for 2005–2010.519 0.116 0. A rapid opening up in China would have shut down state enterprises without creating new industrial activities. To attract foreign direct investment (FDI). up from less than 0.66 Quantitative restrictions on manufactured capital goods were ended in 1993. Between 1993 and 1996. Tariffs on manufactured goods were reduced quickly from 76.089 1. often in less built-up areas.6% of GDP in 2008. 1985–1990 and 2005–2010 (%) Country Bangladesh Brazil Chile China Ghana India Indonesia Malaysia Mauritius Thailand Tunisia Turkey 1985–1990 0. China increased the competencies of its workers and firms by requiring foreign firms to enter joint ventures.029 0. Domestic reforms began in India in the mid-1980s and expanded after the 1990–1991 external payments crisis. Several countries have built up industrial competencies under periods of import substitution that they have subsequently used to supply overseas markets Chapter 3  Drivers of development transformation | 75 . • Turkey. a substantial jump for a middle-­ income country with a large domestic market.7% in 1980 to about 42% in 1993–1994. they have accelerated their structural diversification in manufacturing and services and boosted agricultural productivity. over the next two decades to reach about 8% in 2009.095 0.2 Share of world exports of goods and services of high achievers in human development.565 0. so the state reformed gradually.69 Between 1990 and 2010. Source: World Bank 2012a.3% in 1990 to 42. China had completed 10 years of membership in the World Trade Organization and overtaken Germany as the second-largest exporter of goods and services. and household appliances and consumer electronics—were all from industries that had grown under trade protection.449 2000–2010 0. Table 3.62 At the same time. building on investments in health and education during the 1960s and 1970s and on the newly acquired competencies of farmers and firms.3%. the state established special economic zones. India had import quotas and high tariffs on manufactured goods and banned imports of manufactured consumer products. its trade to GDP ratio rose from 32% to 48%.7% in 1990.63 Its trade to GDP ratio nearly doubled.038 0. 65 Early reforms focused on dismantling the systems of licences for industrial activity and ending restrictions on investment. FDI also reached a peak of 3.132 0. Restrictions on manufactured consumer products were gradually lifted and phased out by 2001.9% in 1992.1% in 1990.197 0. some of the more successful countries have opened gradually.803 1. By 2011.027 1. create jobs and promote exports. • China.64 • India. Trade performance after the 1980s rested on production capacities built in the pre-1980 era of import-substituting industrialization in Turkey. from 21.609 0.68 Building up industrial competencies for global markets Several countries have built up industrial competencies under periods of import substitution that they have subsequently used to supply overseas markets.624 0.118 0.420 8.67 In 2010.123 0.685 0. the top exports—automobiles. India’s trade to output ratio was 46.267 0. Before the reforms.946 0. In 2011.

81 By 2010. it could easily have squandered the opportunity. In 1978. however. Indonesia today stands out for effectively managing its commodity exports. With active support from the state. For example. Malaysia’s pre-eminence in the electronics industry began in the early days of the international division of labour. to avoid the high costs associated with aspects of protection. 76 Having weathered the Asian financial crisis in 1997. There has also been a long history of subsidized plantations in forestry. • Thailand.78 Similar support from a nonprofit corporation.75 • Indonesia. there was substantial public research and development in the cultivation of grapes for wine production. When countries felt they lacked that capacity. not only a cluster for logistics. they chose to import technology under licensing agreements and to develop links with multinational firms. Fundación Chile.80 But without the initiative of its entrepreneurs.70 Even when they were ambivalent about FDI in the 1980s. bonded warehouses and duty drawback systems—all requiring a competent bureaucracy.72 helped the country develop rapidly between the 1970s and the 1990s. Indonesia today stands out for effectively managing its commodity exports • Republic of Korea.79 • Bangladesh. and furniture cluster into a major export industry. • Chile. In 2009–2010. When the Republic of Korea and some of the other East Asian economies went through a phase of moderate import substitution for consumer goods. Thailand’s manufacturing prowess continues to strengthen through the country’s participation in international production networks. The goal was to build indigenous capabilities for the long haul by borrowing and assimilating foreign technologies. Indonesia and some other East Asian countries established export processing zones. established primarily for manufacturing electronic goods.74 Malaysia’s good record in secondary education does not seem to have produced a strong enough base for an innovation-driven economy: Malaysia’s future progress is hampered by inadequate research and development capacity and a lack of design and process engineers and technical and production workers. pulp and paper. they resorted to unconventional approaches. Daewoo trained Desh employees in production and marketing in the Republic of Korea. it is often the result of years of state support and facilitation that build on existing competencies or the creation of new ones. Within a year. universities and the public sector.73 The government’s own advisory council is concerned that a slowdown in FDI inflows could affect the prospects for graduating to high-income status. Chilean firms have had major success in expanding exports of processed agricultural food and beverages and forestry and fish products. has helped make the country’s commercial salmon cultivation one of the most prolific in the world. Today.71 • Malaysia. in the 1960s. and the state has made major efforts to turn the wood. The government is keen to establish Thailand as the “Detroit of Asia”. Malaysia’s economy is seen to be in a “middle-income trap”. that connected Bangladesh to international standards and a network of apparel buyers. 115 of the 130 trainees had left Desh to start their own garment export firms. Bangladesh took advantage of market distortions in world apparel trade.77 Piggybacking on niche products One option for smaller economies is to tap into world markets for niche products. no longer able to compete with low-cost production in neighbouring countries and lacking the skills for high-end tasks in global production networks. For a period Indonesia even privatized its customs administration. The choice of successful products is not accidental. a quarter of its merchandise exports. a Korean company.Having weathered the Asian financial crisis in 1997. the Desh Company signed a five-year collaboration agreement with Daewoo. Free trade zones. In the 1990s. but also a high-tech hub that forges research collaboration among firms. with its courting of multinational companies from countries in the North. Bangladesh’s share of world apparel 76 | Human Development Report 2013 . they did not protect domestic producers of capital goods. its exports of parts and c ­ omponents—notably in the automotive and electronics industries—were valued at $48  billion.

Moreover. Ghana has also diversified into services.92 The exceptions seem to be China and Brazil. In the 1970s and early 1980s. A recent survey found that around 61% of cocoa farmers owned mobile phones. Countries that have sustained high long-term growth have generally put considerable effort into educating their citizens and deepening human capital.82 • Mauritius. China has reduced poverty despite increasing income inequality. especially by devaluing the currency. as measured by the performance of students on mathematics and science tests. Over the last 30 years. The countries discussed here began from diverse initial conditions and have become adept at tailoring nurtured domestic strengths to reap external opportunities presented by world markets. the lesson is that development cannot be sustained without adequate investment in people’s skills to constantly upgrade the quality of products and production techniques. may provide an unexpected opening into export markets. it is usually considered unsustainable. Growth is also less effective in reducing poverty when the distribution of income worsens over time. there is strong multicountry evidence that promoting higher human development levels helps accelerate economic growth.88 However. Tariff reform. and giving farmers a much higher share of prices received.exports had increased to about 4. giving everyone a fair chance to enjoy the fruits of growth Chapter 3  Drivers of development transformation | 77 .85 A common thread that runs through the economies that have had meaningful engagement with the world is their investment in people.89 Similarly. Between 1983 and 2006. poor social cohesion and slow reduction in poverty. Asian garment exporters. Until the 1990s. the sector faced near-collapse. however. particularly to girls. were attracted to the country.91 Thus the aim should be to create virtuous cycles in which growth and social policies reinforce each other. from about 0. at home or in partner countries. Similarly. Ghana restored its international competitiveness with reforms begun in 1983.86 A good test of a government’s commitment to equality of opportunity is its determination to provide education.87 Investing in education is important for improving cognitive skills. Mauritius had to seek a larger. However.83 • Ghana. but it provided duty-free access to imported inputs. known as horizontal Development strategies cannot succeed without a commitment to equality of opportunity. Indeed. Growth has frequently been much more effective at reducing poverty in countries with low income inequality than in countries with high income inequality. Driver 3: determined social policy innovation Evidence shows that substantial public investment—effectively deployed not just ­ in infrastructure. Brazil used targeted policies to reduce poverty despite high income inequality—though income distribution be­ came more equal over this period. Promoting equality—especially equality across groups.90 Growth accompanied by high or rising inequality generally involves slower advances in human development. giving everyone a fair chance to enjoy the fruits of growth.8% in 1990. improvements in public health help growth by boosting labour productivity. including supporting the entry of women into labour-intensive jobs in the export processing zones. but also in health and education—is key to achieving and sustaining ­ human development. increasing the capacity of the private sector in procurement and marketing. as a result of very high rates of growth. constrained by quotas.84 Over the past 10 years. tax incentives and flexible labour market conditions. with the telecom sector growing fast and augmenting the capacity of farmers to connect to sources of market information. some countries may enjoy resource windfalls or ride a wave of shortterm success by mimicking others. With limited arable land. an expanding population and overreliance on one commodity (sugar). overseas market. in the early 2000s.000 people. the country doubled its production of cocoa per hectare. Cocoa has been at the heart of Ghana’s economy for decades.8%. and today the sector supports the livelihoods of 700. the benefits derive from investment not so much in the production of specialist skills but in “education for all”. Development strategies cannot succeed without a commitment to equality of opportunity. Mauritius was one of the most protected economies.

reducing the likelihood of political unrest and strengthening the legitimacy of governments. However.95 On balance. increasing income inequality has slowed the pace of poverty reduction. advanced countries. educated labour force. social protections. To bridge inequalities and correct historical disadvantages.97 Nonmarket discrimination can be equally severe and destabilizing. a series of macroeconomic reforms. different levels of achievement often have historical or colonial origins—for instance. in India. In the South. Promoting inclusion All countries have. problems are exacerbated by external shocks. Developing countries sometimes receive policy advice urging them to view public expenditures on basic services as luxuries they cannot afford. to a greater or lesser extent. multireligious. On average.5% in 2009–2010. these investments pay off. but in many cases policies are implemented where local institutional capacity and community involvement are low. notably by enhancing the consistency of goals and approaches across government agencies.94 Often. legal empowerment and social organization all enable poor people to participate in growth. however. between upper and lower castes. Over the long term. is becoming increasingly critical for political and social stability.96 In turn. Even in 78 | Human Development Report 2013 Access to high-quality education Growth in HDI value is associated with growth in public spending on education. and governments do not always evaluate whether services intended to reach everyone actually do. too. Chinese and Indians. with poor quality government institutions that had less capacity to ensure the rule of law. Uganda went on to become one of the few Sub-Saharan African countries to have halved extreme poverty before the Millennium Development Goal deadline of 2015. reducing the likelihood of political unrest and strengthening the legitimacy of governments equality—also helps reduce social conflict. among Bumiputras (Malays). The sharpest contractions in growth after 1975 occurred in countries with divided societies (as measured by indicators of inequality and ethnic fragmentation). multicultural. Ensuring nondiscrimination and equal treatment. Poor people on the fringes of society struggle to voice their concerns. including providing special programmes for disadvantaged groups. and different groups generally have different levels of human development. . Such measures also help build national stability. health care. pluralistic societies. In post-conflict Uganda.93 Education. Although not all services need be publicly provided. and in Malaysia. Providing basic social services States can underpin long-term economic growth by providing public services that contribute to a healthy. educated labour force helps build national stability. historical discrimination has long-lasting effects. education and social security needs to be established to ensure that all citizens have secure access to the basic requirements of human development. from the loosening of price control and exchange rates to changes in state-owned enterprises and the civil service. democratic rights and social safety nets. Moreover. such progress can have a profound influence on the legitimacy of leaders and their governments. both India and Malaysia have adopted deliberate policy interventions. from 56. Compulsory public primary and secondary education has contributed decisively to human development in Europe and in some developing countries. the economic success of these efforts show that programmes are more effective when the national leadership is committed to reducing poverty. such as affirmative action.providing public services that contribute to a healthy. Economic prosperity alone cannot end group discrimination that leads to horizontal inequality. • Uganda. But even these basic policy instruments may not empower disenfranchised groups. a minimum universal level of basic health. They also suffered from weak institutions for conflict management. paved the way for a wide-ranging poverty reduction plan in 1997.4% in 1992–1993 to 24. there is persistent discrimination against certain ethnic groups in labour markets. such as Costa Rica. whether from public or private providers.

The most significant aspect of the curriculum reform was to provide children with literacy in three languages—two Ghanaian languages and English—as well as modern farming skills. boys are sent to private schools. creating a society in many countries divided between public and private school students. private schools are reimbursed for either their tuition charge or the expenditure per student in government schools. Second. BOX 3. Chapter 3  Drivers of development transformation | 79 . ethnicity or race.6 the focus came back to access. • Mauritius. poor access. the Supreme Court of India upheld the constitutional validity of the act. the average years India’s Supreme Court issues a progressive verdict mandating seats for disadvantaged children in private schools Most schools in developing countries are government run. vocational skills and practical mathematics skills. Parents with enough money send their children to private schools. Following the constitutional amendment to make education a fundamental right for every child.” Private. schools must be sites for social integration. In 1986. government employees and the growing middle class—are sent to private schools. teacher shortages and absenteeism. overcrowded classrooms. especially in rural areas. whichever is lower. although local variations may remain. the state has the freedom to decide whether it shall fulfil its obligation through its own schools. the social obligation of private schools cannot be waived by contending that only children whose parents pay their fees have a right to be in these schools and the requirement to admit at least 25% of students from disadvantaged groups is fair given that these groups constitute around 25% of the population. secondary and tertiary schooling free of charge. In the early 1970s. • India. The 2009 act is “child-centric” and not “institution-­ centric”. But most children from elite households—the rich. this time for secondary education. broadened coverage. • Bangladesh. Between 1966 and 1970. The Ministry of Primary and Mass Education was established in 1992 with the goal of universalizing primary education and eliminating gender and poverty gaps in primary education in Bangladesh. The government of Mauritius developed a national consensus on providing high-quality primary. In a landmark judgement on 12 April 2012. First. since the act obligates the state to provide free and compulsory education to all children ages 6–14. • China. unaided schools supplement the primary obligation of the state to provide free and compulsory education to the specified category of students.countries with higher government expenditures on health and education have experienced high growth in human development. and it places an affirmative burden on all stakeholders in our civil society. Supreme Court of India 2012. but demand for private schools is expanding in response to the failures of public schools: bad infrastructure. From 1990 to 2000. the public discourse on education moved from access to quality. aided schools or unaided schools. • Ghana. In many instances. and in the following decade public expenditure on education more than doubled. • Indonesia. particularly for girls. It requires private schools to admit at least 25% of students from socially disadvantaged and low-income households. India has made education free and compulsory for children ages 6–14. the government funded the construction of schools for basic education through development programmes. In turn. making two points in support of its decision. The vast majority of children are enrolled in government schools. and girls to free government schools. Enrolment in public elementary schools doubled over the next six years. China’s National People’s Congress passed a law proclaiming the compulsory provision of nine-year basic education regardless of gender. India has taken progressive steps towards ending discrimination in its school system (box 3. India passed the Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education Act in 2009.6). the political class. such as the Female Secondary School Assistance Program and the Food for Education programme. Demand-side interventions. The act was based on the following rationales: Source: Government of India 2009. the right to education “envisages a reciprocal agreement between the state and the parents. which aimed at a massive expansion of primary and middle school education. To reduce these trends towards segregation. The 1961 Education Act removed fees for elementary education so that households had to pay only a modest amount for textbooks. private schools do not exist independently of the state that provides them land and other amenities. One of the earliest initiatives in independent Ghana was the 1951 Accelerated Development Plan for Education. The next major round of reforms took place in 1987. During Indonesia’s economic boom years (from 1973 onwards).

Workers in the informal sector are more difficult to provide for. language of instruction and quality standards. Access to high-quality health care Advancing health requires more than high-quality health services. improving women’s social status. disseminating public health knowledge. better access to improved water and sanitation. The early drops in quality and completion rates have since been reversed.98 To improve quality. increasing the resources for primary students in the Northeast. particularly in municipally run schools. Previous Human Development Reports have shown that human poverty is multidimensional. while the nonpoor get better health care services from the private sector. the third-largest leap on record. the Ministry of Education emphasized five areas: curriculum development.of schooling for people ages 15 and older in rural areas rose from 4. often in public facilities. providing a significant incentive for school systems to expand enrolment. generally resulting in a health care system in which poor people receive inferior quality services. guaranteed national minimum spending per student in primary education. Algeria. social mobilization and community participation. Many countries are discovering that they need simultaneous interventions on multiple fronts Advancing health requires more than high-quality health services. and the gains have been solidified and extended. increased energy provision.100 80 | Human Development Report 2013 . states were required to share resources across municipalities so that all state and municipal schools could reach the per student spending threshold.7). In India. • Uganda. To improve child survival rates. Those with greatest access to health care have been workers in the formal sector. Funding “followed the student”. created in 1996. widespread vaccinations. and providing effective. Governments also attempt to finance health care through user fees. special insurance schemes for the poor miss the advantages of pooling risks across the whole population and are thus likely to become financially unviable. State-led investments in education have dramatically improved development outcomes in Brazil. However. basic learning materials. Bangladesh has taken a multisectoral approach: expanding education and employment opportunities for women. Morocco and Tunisia.8. Health services targeted to the poor generally remain underfunded partly because the more powerful people who are not poor have no stake in making the system better. Health service provision has been heavily skewed towards the better-off. • Brazil. Possible explanations include improvements in health and drug technology. increasing political participation. and public and private investments in health. who have been more likely to have good access to the public services and pay for private ones. School fees for primary education were abolished in Uganda in 1997 with the aim of universalizing primary education.99 Everyone should be entitled to the same quality of health care. who have partly financed their needs with annual contributions. The transformation of education started with the equalization of funding across regions. there are no clearly identified regular employers who can contribute on behalf of the estimated 93% of the workforce in the informal sector. states and municipalities. Some have done so through public health services targeted to the poor. especially for the poor. teacher training. Many countries are discovering that they need simultaneous interventions on multiple fronts. community-based essential health services (box 3. have seen striking gains in life expectancy in the last 40 years. They discourage the poor from using services and generally mobilize little in terms of resources. for example. North and Centre West states. This is neither desirable nor efficient. often diverting resources from preventive and primary care to more-expensive tertiary care. Similarly. there is near unanimous consensus now that such fees have adverse consequences.7 years to 6. As a result of this investment. • Bangladesh. Initially this strained the education infrastructure. Also. Brazil’s math scores on the Programme for International Student Assessment rose 52 points between 2000 and 2009. information technology advances. The national Development Fund for Primary Education. and several countries have attempted to provide and finance universal health coverage. for example.

the Grameen system has familiarized borrowers with election processes. girls’ enrolment in schools exceeds that of boys (15 years ago. The lesson from global experience is that the main source of financing for universal health care should be taxation. a public insurance scheme that provides access to comprehensive health care for poor households formerly excluded from traditional social security. This unprecedented employment opportunity for young women has narrowed gender gaps in employment and income. The vast majority of women in the garment industry are migrants from rural areas. and new economic opportunities have opened up as a result of easier access to microcredit. World Bank 2012a.102 • Mexico. BRAC also provided community-based instruction to more than 13 million women about rehydration for children suffering from diarrhoea. With injectable contraceptives.103 Mexico is a leader in moving rapidly towards universal health coverage by adopting an innovative financing mechanism. family planning and contraception. Almost 95% of children in Bangladesh are fully immunized against tuberculosis. The scheme is fully financed by the government. Most countries in Southeast Asia. Governments have sought to reduce private out-of-pocket spending.74 billion to 8 million borrowers.9% of the national budget. and resource-poor developing countries such as Lao PDR and Viet Nam have relied heavily on donor-supported health equity funds. economic empowerment of women through employment in the garment industry and access to microcredit transformed their situation. By 2009. • Thailand. marriage and pregnancy. First. centre-chiefs and deputy centre-chiefs. and the schools have retention rates over 94%. Postponed marriage and motherhood are direct consequences of women’s empowerment. and gender issues.Box 3. Access to health services has been expanded in Rwanda by introducing community-­ based health insurance. For example. Even adult tuberculosis cases fare better in Bangladesh. Nearly 53% of women ages 15–40 now use contraceptives. By 2004. 97 deaths per 1. were registered in the Universal Health Coverage Scheme. with BRAC-sponsored community volunteers treating more than 90% of cases. was 16% higher than India’s 81. Women’s empowerment has gone hand-in-hand with substantial improvements in health services and promotion. which most do. 20 million poor people were benefiting from the scheme. contraceptive use has surged. 95% of them women. This experience has prepared many women to run for public office. Thailand’s 2002 National Health Security Act stipulated that every citizen should have comprehensive medical care. students can join the formal schooling system. as well as board member elections every three years. often through services provided by community outreach workers. smoking and substance abuse.. Informal schools run by the nongovernmental organization BRAC offer four years of accelerated primary schooling to adolescents who have never attended school. which provides free inpatient and outpatient treatment. as are the effects on child survival. Financial protection indicators have improved. A recent analysis suggests Source: BRAC n. maternity care. increase pooled health finance and improve the reach and quality of health services. Monthly reproductive health sessions are integrated into the regular school curriculum and include such topics as adolescence. have embraced the idea. the situation was reversed. • Rwanda . although coverage varies. reproduction and menstruation.101 Identifying and reaching poor people remain challenges. Third. about 48  million people. the Mexican state approved Seguro Popular. Women have also been socially empowered through participation in the banks. The spread of microcredit has also aided women’s empowerment. Today Bangladesh has the world’s highest rate of oral rehydration use. After graduation. 76% of the population. According to recent estimates. these small loans have enabled more than half of borrowers’ households to cross the poverty line. since members participate in annual elections for chairperson and secretaries.7 Bangladesh makes dramatic advances in child survival In 1990. In 2003.d. Three main factors seem to explain the dramatic improvements. Public resources for health have increased and are being distributed more fairly. with a budget in 2011 of $34 million—$70 for each insured person— which accounts for 5. Access to and use of health care services have expanded. only 40% of school attendees were girls). much better knowledge about health among participants in credit forums than among nonparticipants.. dental care and emergency care. the higher participation of girls in formal education has been enhanced by nongovernmental organizations. and diarrhoea no longer figures as a major killer of children. Grameen Bank alone has disbursed $8.d. while India struggles to reach 70% through the formal health system. Today. for example. social and political empowerment of women has occurred through regular meetings of women’s groups organized by nongovernmental organizations. compared with only 73% in India. Health Chapter 3  Drivers of development transformation | 81 . Grameen Bank n. Second. with Bangladesh’s infant mortality rate (38) 21% lower than India’s (48). By the end of 2007. the infant mortality rate in Bangladesh.000 live births.

illustrate the possibilities of ensuring that basic services are universal and of reasonable quality. One concern in a number of countries is the emergence of dual-track services. covered 69% of the population. aware of the risks. Chile’s health system was publicly financed through social security and public funds. Individual capabilities are embedded in a broader social system whose health requires enhanced social competencies (see box 1. and market mechanisms began to regulate levels of protection. involvement and consistency over time. In 2004. The National  Health Care Fund. And there were visible improvements in health outcomes. reduce social integration and undermine sustainable human development. This dual system has been criticized because it leaves low-income and high-risk populations to be treated mainly in the public system. Much of China’s health care success took place between 1950 and 1980. In many parts of the country quality health care has become unaffordable for the poor. risk insurance was introduced. however. which is poorly resourced and thus tends to provide lower quality service. As a result. New programmes. Increasing social cohesion by broadening development Transforming development requires that all citizens feel vested in the broader goals of society. After health reform in 1981. the health sector has been driven by a fee-for-service model. Poor people have no alternatives to a public system. When financial resources are adequately provided. Private  health  insurance companies covered 17% of the population. As a result. while wealthier people can pay for private services. driving people towards expensive private providers. Globalization has contributed to the dismantling of some aspects of social protection and social insurance. Before 1980. quality and access may be poor. Under-five mortality fell from 196 deaths per 1. township health centres and county hospitals in rural areas and health centres and district hospitals in urban areas. Rwanda is on track to reach the Millennium Development Goal for maternal health. which guarantees a medical benefits package consisting of a prioritized list of diagnoses and treatment for 56 health conditions. Since the 1980s. • China. publicly provided services need not be inferior to private services. The challenge for countries in the South is to ensure equity in access to health and education services and basic quality standards to prevent a dual-track service industry that provides low-quality public services (or none at all) to the poor and higher quality private services to the rich. while China’s overall health status has continued to improve. • Chile. funded by federal government tax revenues and by premiums from beneficiaries.000 live births in 2000 to 103 in 2007. the state introduced El Plan de Acceso Universal de Garantías Explícitas. Such dynamics entrench inequalities. but its resource constraints have prevented it from ensuring timely and quality services. disparities have grown between the eastern and western provinces and between rural and urban areas. however. as well as universal coverage for all citizens. Providing universal health care and at least nine years of compulsory education requires strong state commitment.Universal public health and education policies can be designed and implemented without sacrificing quality for the sake of greater coverage care providers were given incentives by linking resources to performance. Even if public provision is universal in principle. and the maternal mortality ratio declined more than 12% a year over 2000–2008. showing respect and compassion for others and a commitment to building social cohesion. This requires that states and citizens understand that human development is about more than just enhancing individual capabilities. More effective social protection systems are also needed to help individuals and communities manage risks to their welfare. Universal public health and education policies can be designed and implemented without sacrificing quality for the sake of greater coverage. when the government established a three-level system of village clinics.7 in chapter 1). Mexico and Thailand. such as those in China. The National  Health Care Fund offers a universal health plan. health care became more affordable in rural areas. By 2006. especially for systems relying on universal 82 | Human Development Report 2013 . a dual system of coverage was in place.

104 In many parts of the South. particularly in the less-developed eastern regions of the country. social security reforms and an ambitious transformation of the national public health system. is what these improvements already mean to the lives of ordinary Turkish families. Turkey As recently as 2002. an estimated 30% of Turkey’s people lived below the government’s poverty threshold of $4. as fluctuations in economic activity become more frequent. new approaches to in-kind and cash assistance. The goals of the programme’s several thousand projects to date go beyond job creation in these lower income regions to include support for young people and women to express themselves through cultural. they can supplement resources of the poor. Cash transfer programmes—important in reducing poverty and improving income inequality—cannot substitute for public provision of essential goods and services Cevdet Yılmaz. prompting criticism that Turkey’s social support systems were both fragmented and insufficient. pro-poor approach to social policies and targeted assistance with greater resources have helped accelerate poverty reduction. Chapter 3  Drivers of development transformation | 83 .7% in 2010. states have introduced and provided social protection programmes to integrate poor people into the new economy. Iron and vitamin D supplements are provided without charge to mothers and children. stronger links to job opportunities and continuing consultations with targeted communities and households. social policies become as important as economic policies in advancing human development. Key policy changes include systematic strengthening of social assistance programmes. however. parents and children alike can now look forward to healthier. Health insurance is now available to the entire population.8). artistic and athletic accomplishments.coverage and large government expenditures. down from 29 in 2003. India’s National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme provides up to 100 days of unskilled manual labour to eligible rural poor at the statutory minimum agricultural labour wage. But transfers cannot substitute for public provision of essential goods and services (box  3.30 a day fell sharply. To increase their effectiveness. And expenditures on social assistance for the poor accounted for only 0. Over the past decade. For the first time. the share of the population living on less than $4. more than 1 million children have received health care support. conditional cash transfers. to 3. The share of social expenditures in Turkey’s GDP is still less than the EU average. to 1. launched in 2003. according to government figures. measurable impact on public health. • India. Infant mortality rates have fallen sharply.8 Strengthening social protection in Turkey health care is in short supply.000 live births in 2010. In fact. As a result of these and other initiatives. Under the Health Transformation Programme launched in 2003. Nor can cash transfers substitute for incomes earned through decent work. Under the conditional cash transfer programme alone. and nearly 1 million now get free transportation to school. More important. the expansion and modernization of health services have had a direct. and the share of GDP devoted to poverty assistance and related social services nearly tripled.2%. This two-thirds drop greatly exceeds the reduction targeted under the Millennium Development Goals. At the same time. the government is working on new methods of poverty measurement and social protection. almost all children are getting free regular vaccinations. Throughout the country. Minister of Development. The results have been swift and encouraging. to broader assistance for their home communities. to 10 per 1. Cash transfer programmes have been particularly important in reducing poverty and improving income inequality through redistribution.30 a day. though. Its projects aim to increase participation in national economic and social life by disadvantaged people marginalized by poverty and social exclusion. Government spending on social protection accounted for just 12% of GDP. The scheme has innovative design features such as social audits and advanced monitoring and information systems. giving cash to households so that they can choose their school is unlikely to help the poor if few schools offer high-­ quality education. less than half the EU average of 25%. family practitioners were assigned to families to strengthen basic health services. social and economic policies can hardly be disentangled because their goals and instruments are analogous. This initiative is promising because it provides access to income and some insurance for the poor against the vagaries of seasonal work and affords individuals the self-respect and empowerment associated with work. and social assistance schemes have not yet had the desired impact on poverty rates. Similarly. with primary and emergency health care provided free of charge. Similarly. more secure. more fulfilling lives—the underlying goal and core principle of human development. School children have received more than 1. it aims to help build economies in rural areas by developing infrastructure.5% of GDP. and about 2. it has increased the need for social protection.3 billion textbooks since 2003 under a new free schoolbook programme. Pro-child policies go beyond health care and education. Seven million schoolchildren get free milk every day.105 In addition.2 million have benefited from education aid. Offering cash so that households can buy health care of their choice is unlikely to work where high-­ quality Box 3. Turkey’s strong economic performance. At best. Thus. The government started a new Social Support Program in 2008 to develop social cohesion and ensure social integration.

it takes the view that extreme poverty is multidimensional. the programmes can be designed to allow rigorous impact evaluation. given bimonthly to female heads of household. conditional on family members obtaining preventive medical care. The programme is designed to break the intergenerational transmission of poverty. In 2003 Bolsa Escola was expanded to Bolsa Familia by folding several other cash and in-kind transfer programmes into a Box 3.9). They target certain beneficiaries (typically individuals from low-income or disadvantaged households) and provide support in cash instead of as in-kind benefits. followed the conceptual foundation of others in Latin America. It guarantees a minimum income in urban areas by filling the gap between actual income and a locally set poverty line. Furthermore. So. extending equal rights to migrants in cities can have a decisive impact on their ability to access comparable social services. unified targeting system under streamlined administration. The result has been substantial declines in poverty and extreme poverty and reduced inequality. Ribas. such as ATM cards for low-income mothers without bank accounts. Together with other social policies. the two largest programmes in Latin America. Beneficiary children also receive money for school supplies once a year. which started in 1997. is one of the largest conditional cash transfer programmes in the world. It rises substantially after graduation from primary school and is higher for girls than for boys during secondary and tertiary school. the programme has increased Oportunidades transfers. In addition. Mexico’s Oportunidades is a conditional cash transfer programme targeted to poor households conditional on children’s school attendance and medical checkups and parents’ attendance at community meetings where information is provided on personal health and hygiene. and is intended to help families spend on more and better nutrition. By 2009. received by all beneficiary households. with the transfers conditional on activities related to health and education.9 Conditional cash transfer programmes and Mexico’s Oportunidades Conditional cash transfer programmes are designed to increase beneficiaries’ incomes and their access to health and education by making transfers conditional on requirements such as visits to health clinics and school attendance. extending beyond low income to include other deprivations in basic capabilities such as health and education. Veras Soares and Hirata 2008. box 3. In some cases they have been perceived as tools to provide access to universal basic rights such as health and education. For instance. Brazil has reduced inequality by introducing a poverty reduction programme. such as sickness. accidents and unemployment. The education stipend provided for each child under age 18 enrolled in school between the third grade of primary school and the third (last) grade of junior high varies by grade and gender. Originally called Progresa. education and poverty reduction without having negative impacts on labour supply. Brazil’s Bolsa Familia and Mexico’s Oportunidades. is a fixed food stipend. Its conditional cash transfer programme Bolsa Escola. Source: Hailu and Veras Soares 2008. The first. The Minimum Livelihood Guarantee Scheme is the Chinese government’s main response to the new challenges of social protection brought about by increasing privatization and engagement with the global market. Focusing on household assistance. launched in 2001. despite increasing income inequality in China. such as Mexico’s Progresa (now called Oportunidades. it aims to alleviate current and future poverty by giving parents financial incentives (cash) to invest in the health and education of their children.3% of the target population. health. poverty reduction requires the mitigation of vulnerability to common events. distributing about $3 billion to some 5 million beneficiary households in 2012. 84 | Human Development Report 2013 . have two parts. cost less than 1% of GDP. extending education and raising the minimum wage.• China. These programmes have also broken ground in terms of programme administration and female empowerment by developing innovative distribution channels. or 97. Moreover.106 • Chile. Chile Solidario was launched in 2002 to reach the extreme poor with a combination of aid and skill development. The second comes in the form of education scholarships and is conditional on children attending school a minimum of 85% of the time and not repeating a grade more than twice. • Brazil. Bolsa Familia covered more than 12  million households across the country. In response to findings that state subsidies were not reaching the extreme poor. the Tekopora programme in Paraguay has been shown to have positive impacts on nutrition. Despite slower economic growth than in China and India. Conditional cash transfer programmes cost less than traditional inkind social assistance interventions. The programme. but in others they have led to the exclusion of some localities due to the inadequate supply of services. there is potential for redistributive policies to reduce poverty and enhance food security.

10 protecting common resources. Oportunidades. Its mission is to identify strategies to help break the cycle of poverty through innovative education. Many countries of the South have demonstrated what can be achieved through a developmental state. That is why the centre began its work by conducting a national and international survey of promising antipoverty strategies. The next chapter addresses these threats and considers what is needed to sustain future progress in human development. New York City Why New York City looked South for antipoverty policy advice In New York City. social inequality and limited social integration (box 3. Box 3. The centre’s findings are then shared across government agencies. No one has a monopoly on good ideas. they also include innovative approaches to urban transportation. education and job training. especially the poor. institutional failures. We have improved New Yorkers’ health by reducing smoking and obesity. By the end of our three-year pilot. the first conditional cash transfer programme in the United States. We have also sought to reduce poverty by finding new and better ways to build self-sufficiency and prepare our young people for bright futures. Before we launched Opportunity NYC: Family Rewards. poor health. we established the Center for Economic Opportunity. It involves communities in setting budget priorities and disseminating information. Unsuccessful programmes are discontinued. Mexico.10). In 2007. continuing success is not guaranteed. while playing a countercyclical role in economic downturns by providing a much needed safety net to the poor. *    *    * An agenda for development transformation that promotes human development is multifaceted. Mexico and dozens of other countries. health and employment initiatives. And as we adapt and evaluate new programmes in our own city. It improves the functioning of state and social institutions to promote equitable growth where the benefits are widespread. with nonprofit partners and private donors and with colleagues across the country and around the world who are also seeking new ways to break the cycle of poverty. In designing Family Rewards. but we recognize there is much to learn from programmes developed elsewhere. and resources reinvested in new strategies. and introducing land reform where relevant. Countries across the world are facing a series of challenges. a broader social and poverty reduction agenda is needed in which policies to address inequalities. we had learned which programme elements worked in New York City and which did not. Based on similar programmes operating in more than 20 other countries. We continue to improve the quality of education in our schools. To lead this effort. from rising inequality to spreading environmental degradation. we remain committed to returning the favour and making a lasting difference in communities around the world. It reduces bureaucratic and social constraints on economic action and social mobility. It has developed a customized evaluation strategy for each of these pilots. we drew on lessons from Brazil. It holds leadership accountable. The rising South is thus developing a broader social and poverty reduction agenda in which policies to address inequalities. It prioritizes rapid growth in employment and works to ensure that jobs are of high quality. And it focuses on social priorities. We also participated in a North–South learning exchange hosted by the United Nations. social barriers and personal vulnerabilities are as central as promoting economic growth. Family Rewards reduces poverty by providing households with incentives for preventive health care. South Africa and Turkey. Our international learning exchanges are not limited to these cash transfer initiatives. the Organization of American States and other institutions and international policymakers to exchange experiences on conditional cash transfer programmes in Latin America. social barriers and personal vulnerabilities are as central as promoting economic growth Michael Bloomberg. And we have enhanced the city’s landscape by adding bike lanes and planting hundreds of thousands of trees. which is why New York will continue to learn from the best practices of other cities and countries. extending credit to the population. It expands people’s assets by universalizing access to basic social services. I visited Toluca. Over the last six years. institutional failures. they also include lack of access to education. the centre launched Opportunity NYC: Family Rewards. Successful programmes are sustained with new public and private funds. Chapter 3  Drivers of development transformation | 85 . But even in higher achieving countries. as well as in Indonesia. This follows from an increased understanding that social challenges extend beyond income poverty. monitoring their performance. information that is now helpful to a new generation of programmes worldwide.the take-up of health and education services during boom times. the centre has launched more than 50 pilot programmes in partnership with city agencies and hundreds of community-­ based organizations. for a firsthand look at Mexico’s successful federal conditional cash transfer programme. comparing outcomes and determining which strategies are most successful at reducing poverty and expanding opportunity. We worked with the Rockefeller Foundation. with policymakers. Mayor. the World Bank. new education initiatives and other programmes. New York is fortunate to have some of the world’s brightest minds working in our businesses and universities. we are working to better the lives of our residents in many ways.

” Chinese proverb “We have to free half of the human race.” Emmeline Pankhurst . so that they can help to free the other half. the women.“Each generation will reap what the former generation has sown.

3 • Enabling voice and participation. Strong political participation by the relatively deprived provides an important source of support for pro–human development policy change. including volatile commodity prices. they will need to address their own urgent policy priorities. especially their accelerated progress in human development. In an increasingly globalized world. people are demanding more participation in political . and can other countries in the South share in the benefits? Yes. notably the economic slowdown. challenging decisionmakers to be more accountable and expand opportunities for open public discourse. At the core of these negative relationships is gender inequality: women’s health and education are crucial to addressing demographic and other human development challenges. these and other Chapter 4  Sustaining momentum | 87 Policy priorities for developing countries Four policy priorities stand out for developing countries over the next few years if they are to continue the gains of recent decades and if the benefits are to extend to countries still lagging behind: • Enhancing equity. In other countries. proxied and measured as disparities in health and education outcomes. Restricted opportunities for political participation. are important for expanding capabilities. Over the next few years. But what of the future? Can these countries continue to advance human development at the same rapid pace. future progress in human development will be threatened. this Report argues for aggressive action nationally and internationally to tackle these challenges. Sustaining momentum Much of the news about developing countries in recent decades has been positive. the share of working-­ age people in the population is falling as the share of elderly rises. • Confronting environmental pressures . Equity and social justice. Unless action is taken urgently.1 Progress in human development is difficult to sustain in the face of growing or persistent inequity. policymakers in developing countries will need to follow an ambitious agenda that responds to difficult global conditions. notably in East Asia. New policy interventions are needed to generate sufficient productive employment while meeting the growing demand for social protection. processes. Expanded opportunities for political participation. can foster human freedoms and sustain human development. enabling voice and participation. In some developing countries. Building on scenarios developed for Human Development Report 2011. regardless of their stage of development. not all countries recognize the importance of addressing inequality in health. Although some countries in Latin America and elsewhere have greatly reduced income inequality. especially for food and fuel. as well as in income—also impedes progress in human development. These include enhancing equity. At the same time. Policymakers will need to strive for greater policy ambition and to understand the high cost of policy inaction. valuable in their own right. can fuel civil unrest. There will be other challenges to human development.4. though the effects may be less pronounced. which has decreased demand from the North. along with greater government accountability in ensuring that basic human needs are met. education and income. As education levels rise and access to information and communication technologies spreads. mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa.2 Inequity in specific capabilities—for example. with the right policies. at a time when unemployment is rising and the economic environment is deteriorating. Climate change and local stresses on natural resources and ecosystems are increasing pressure on the environment in almost all countries. large cohorts of young people are entering the workforce. confronting environmental pressures and managing demographic change. • Managing demographic change.

young Korean women are among the best educated women in the world: more than half have completed college. which assumes education expansion similar to Korea’s. engage in public debate and make demands on government for health care.1 Why population prospects will likely differ in the Republic of Korea and India Educational attainment has risen rapidly in the Republic of Korea. Evidence worldwide establishes that For India.concerns will make for a complex environment with attendant risks.1 on differences in education futures in the Republic of Korea and India). Even under an optimistic fast track scenario. will build a very well educated young adult labour force. social security and other entitlements. the proportion of the population younger than age 14 will drop from 16% in 2010 to 13% in 2050. Before 2000. rising insecurity and greater inequality. that can dramatically change both production and personal possibilities. is not only valuable in itself. however. the picture looks very different. fast track scenario 50 TERTIARY TERTIARY 2. The rapid expansion in tertiary education under this scenario. Comparative population and education futures in the Republic of Korea and India Republic of Korea. particularly among women. As a consequence. In the 1950s a large proportion of school-age children received no formal education. There will also be a marked shift in the population’s education composition. but also essential for promoting human development. elderly Koreans of the future will be much better educated than elderly Koreans of today (see figure). with the proportion having a tertiary education projected to rise from 26% to 47%. Assuming that enrolment rates (which are high) remain constant. Education also has striking benefits for health and mortality (see box 4. including between men and women and across groups (religious. constant enrolment ratios Population (millions) Population (millions) India. Despite the recent expansion in basic schooling and impressive growth in the number of better educated Indians (undoubtedly a key factor in India’s recent economic growth). and because of the positive correlation between education and health. others). Partly because of this lower level of education. One of the most powerful instruments for advancing equity and human development is education. India’s education distribution in 2050 will still be highly unequal. including progress reversals. 88 | Human Development Report 2013 . the proportion of the adult population with no education will decline only slowly. racial and Box 4.500 TERTIARY SECONDARY PRIMARY 30 PRIMARY NO EDUCATION SECONDARY 1.000 20 PRIMARY 10 500 NO EDUCATION 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: Lutz and KC 2013. such as technological progress. Today. which builds people’s capacities and expands their freedom of choice. they are also likely to be healthier. India’s population is projected to grow rapidly. Education boosts people’s self-confidence and makes it easier for them to find better jobs. more than half the adult population had no formal education. modelling scenarios are helpful for illustrating policy choices and their implications.000 40 SECONDARY 1. Nevertheless. with India surpassing China as the most populous country. Forecasting is difficult in such a complex environment because modelling may miss key variables. with a sizeable group of uneducated (mostly elderly) adults. Enhancing equity Greater equity.

2 6.0 5.2 7. the mortality rate is Table 4.7 2.6 3.6 2.1).9 3. This has profound policy implications.2 5. thus reducing the incentive to have a larger family.9 Overall 2.1 7.7 3. for example. The “fast track” scenario assumes much more ambitious education policy targets. 4 Educated women also have healthier children who are more likely to survive (table 4.0 6.2 Total fertility rate (births per woman) Primary 2.1 4. such as Liberia and Uganda. improves child survival.0 2.better education of parents.1 7. most notably Mali and Niger.8 4.9 3.7 7.1 Secondary or higher 2.1 6. Many African countries.6 5. much lower child mortality is associated with primary education.0 3.5 5.0 2.4 7. potentially shifting emphasis from efforts to boost household income to measures to improve girls’ education. in others.5 3. Moreover.7 8. Source: Lutz and KC 2013.3 7.4 4.9 2.0 3.2 7. In some countries.6 2.7 5. A modelling exercise conducted for this Report projects the impact of differences in education levels on child mortality over 2010– 2050 under two scenarios.0 5.3 6. the proportion of each group of children—­ categorized by age and gender—advancing to the next education level remains constant (see Technical appendix). similar to those achieved in recent decades by the Republic of Korea.4 3.1 2.000 live births) Country Bangladesh Egypt Ethiopia Ghana India Indonesia Liberia Mali Niger Nigeria Rwanda Uganda Zambia Survey year 2007 2008 2005 2008 2005/2006 2007 2009 2006 2006 2008 2007/2008 2006 2007 No education 93 44 139 103 106 94 164 223 222 210 174 164 144 Primary 73 38 111 88 78 60 162 176 209 159 127 145 146 Secondary or higher 52 26 54 67 49 38 131 102 92 107 43 91 105 Overall 74 33 132 85 85 51 158 215 218 171 135 144 137 No education 3.5 6.1).0 7. especially of mothers. such as Nigeria.8 4.2 3.6 Drawing on Demographic and Health Surveys and micro-level surveys.1 lower among better educated mothers.9 6. most recent year available since 2005 Under-five mortality rate (per 1.2 Note: Data refer to the period 10 years before the survey year. working women and more-educated women (who tend to complete their schooling before bearing children) are likely to have fewer children. But in every country.5 Educated women also have better access to contraception and use it more effectively. the decisive difference is associated with secondary education.8 4.0 2.0 3. Chapter 4  Sustaining momentum | 89 . This relationship can be illustrated by data on child mortality (see table 4. with the proportion of schoolchildren advancing to the next education level steadily increasing a mother’s education is more important to her child’s survival than is household income or wealth Under-five mortality rate and total fertility rate by mother’s education level In selected countries. Under this assumption. have a high under-five mortality rate.7 6. finding mother’s education to be more important to child survival than household income or wealth is. research for this Report reinforces these arguments.6 7.4 6.8 6. The “base case” scenario assumes that current trends in educational attainment at the national level continue without substantial new funding commitments or policy initiatives.

716 7.964 11. Source: Lutz and KC 2013. China has more people than India but is projected to have less than a quarter (1. as Table 4.2).552 15.707 920 8 519 1. would rise from about 582. And due to China’s advances in education.A greater emphasis on education can substantially reduce child deaths in all countries and regions over the years. 2025–2030 and 2045–2050 (thousands) 2010–2015 Country or region Country Brazil China India Kenya Korea. much better. by education scenario.7 million) the number of child deaths over 2010–2015.192 162 11 18.9 million.6 million in 2045–2050. These results underscore the importance of reducing gender inequality. especially in education and in low Human Development Projected number of deaths of children under age 5. the number of deaths over 2045–2050 would drop to 371. If China follows the fast track scenario. The projections also show that policy interventions have a greater impact where education outcomes are initially weaker.029 276 1.681 187 413 152 10 328 1.000.676 134 102 526 3. nearly 6.064 371 7 150 773 93 Base case 2025–2030 Base case Fast track 2045–2050 Base case Fast track Note: See Technical appendix at the end of this Report for a discussion of the base case and fast track scenarios. Projections are less optimistic for some other countries.225 165 161 625 6. Mali Pakistan South Africa Region Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean North America Oceania 16. Under the fast track scenario.872 582 9 488 1. The results from the fast track scenario show substantially fewer child deaths as mother’s level of schooling rises. less than a third of the current level.924 204 704 155 11 24. almost 7.715 209 963 160 11 12. as a direct result of improvements in girls’ education (table 4.1 million) under the fast track scenario. Under the base case scenario.641 198 177 871 4. 2045–2050. for example. accounting for about half the deaths among children under age 5 in Asia.1 million children are projected to die under the base case scenario but just half that many (3. 90 | Human Development Report 2013 . The projected declines in child deaths reflect the combined effects of better educated women having fewer children and of fewer of those children dying. child deaths in Kenya. child deaths will decline to about half a million by 2045–2050.096 1.927 288 224 897 6. Rep.561 196 950 165 12 7. projections look optimistic under both scenarios.000 in 2010–2015 to about 1.095 8.7 In the final projection period. India has the most projected child deaths over 2010–2015. The model also shows that a greater emphasis on progress in education would substantially and continually reduce child deaths in all countries and regions.552 7 541 1.806 482 9 318 1.2 seems likely. but not far below the level in 2010–2015.495 5. 2010–2015.185 10.

Mahbub ul Haq highlighted that unless people can participate meaningfully in the events and processes that shape their lives. in part a response to job shortages and limited employment opportunities for educated young people. In a sample of 48 countries.13 • Environmental pollution . China. Autocratic regimes impose restrictions that directly counter human development by restraining essential freedoms.15 Among the most active protesters are youth. poor people and poor groups often have limited access to information. unemployment and pollution: • Rising food prices. This is not to say that the educated have greater rights. especially on basic social protection Chapter 4  Sustaining momentum | 91 . Spain and the United Kingdom. Riots in response to high food prices in 2008 challenged stability in more than 30 countries in Africa and the Arab States.9 People in the North have been protesting against austerity measures and reductions in public spending and jobs. Gender inequality is especially tragic not only because it excludes women from basic social opportunities. measured by the Social Unrest Index.1). youth unemployment was more than 20% in 2011. Workers are demanding that governments respond to their needs. According to a recent International Labour Organization report. People should be able to influence policymaking and results. But unless governments give greater priority to job creation. Yet in many countries.10 Other focuses of unrest have included food prices. for example. Citizens have challenged governments to address the social consequences of their policies. Exclusion from this process limits people’s ability to communicate their concerns and needs and can perpetuate injustices. But even in democracies. government dissatisfaction. Dissatisfaction is on the rise in the North and the South as people call for more opportunities to voice their concerns and influence policy.16 Youth discontent in response to rising unemployment is even more likely in areas with an educated population. voice or public participation. well above the 9. youth and the poor. they are likely to face increasing youth dissatisfaction as education coverage expands (figure 4. Democracies can also extend accountability from what is often a narrow constituency of elites to all citizens. 17 Education alters people’s expectations of government and instils the political skills and resources needed to challenge government decisions. organizations representing the poor are not supported but discouraged. but also because it gravely imperils the life prospects of future generations.6% overall rate. especially on basic social protection. such as women. pointing out that the burden of austerity is being borne disproportionately by the poor and socially disadvantaged. fought a proposed wastewater pipeline.11 • Unemployment and low wages. Mass protests against environmental pollution are also widespread.14 and in Malaysia local residents have been opposing the construction of a rare earth metal refinery in their neighbourhood. Poor people need to work together to effectively exercise their political voice. national human development paths will be neither desirable nor sustainable. followed by those in the Arab States and SubSaharan Africa.18 At the same time.Index (HDI) countries. The unemployed are voicing their dissatisfaction in many countries. Greece. mobile broadband Internet and other modern technologies are opening Dissatisfaction is on the rise as people call for more opportunities to voice their concerns and influence policy. The largest increases were in countries of the North. Italy.12 In Viet Nam strikes doubled in 2011 as workers struggled to gain higher wages in the face of inflation. Equitable and sustainable human development requires systems of public discourse that encourage citizens to participate in the political process by expressing their views and voicing their concerns. Governments that do not respond to citizens’ needs or widen opportunities for political participation risk losing their legitimacy. as in France. Enabling voice and participation In the 1995 Human Development Report. Protesters in Shanghai. particularly those who have been underrepresented in public discourse. and young people should be able to look forward to greater economic opportunities and political accountability. rose in 57 of 106 countries from 2010 to 2011.

but this does not always result in political transformations that benefit the broader society. point out that such movements can favour policies that may not be supported by the wider electorate. also improve the quality of policies and their implementation and reduce the probability of future upheaval new channels through which citizens. bringing them closer together. ranging from systemic discrimination to unfair and unjust exclusion. Participation and inclusivity. Failure to build an accountable and responsive polity may foment discontent and civil strife.20 Social movements and media draw attention to specific issues. In India. valuable in their own right. They are also enabling people in different countries to share values and experiences. Source: HDRO calculations based on Lutz and KC (2013).Figure 4. China’s two major microblogs (weibos) had distributed some 26  million messages commenting on the accident and expressing concerns about safety. In China. politically aware and outspoken on social media. education outcomes are enhanced Base case scenario Population (billions) Population (billions) Fast track scenario 8 TERTIARY 8 TERTIARY 6 SECONDARY 6 SECONDARY 4 PRIMARY 4 PRIMARY 2 NO EDUCATION AGES 014 2 NO EDUCATION AGES 014 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Note: See Technical appendix for a discussion of the base case and fast track scenarios. valuable in their own right. as “low-cost aggregators” of public opinion. Critics. as unrest deters investment and impedes growth and governments divert resources to maintaining law and order.19 Less than a week after the July 2011 high-speed train accident in Wenzhou. In recent years. it is important to institutionalize participatory processes that can adjust the political balance by providing a platform for excluded citizens to demand accountability and redress of inequities. One way to foster peaceful change is to allow civil society to mature through open 92 | Human Development Report 2013 . This can derail human development. also improve the quality of policies and their implementation and reduce the probability of future upheaval. are amplifying people’s voices. Yemen has embarked on an internationally brokered political transition. History is replete with popular rebellions against unresponsive governments. the post-1990 generation is highly educated. for example. however. Libya and Tunisia have seen autocratic governments deposed. for example. As a result. Millions of people in the Arab States have risen to demand opportunities. the Anna Hazare movement against corruption created pressure for change. can demand accountability. The Internet and social media. Thus.21 Participation and inclusivity. particularly young people. respect and dignity as well as fuller citizenship and a new social contract with those who govern in their name.1 Under the fast track scenario. countries in both the North and the South have faced escalating crises of legitimacy that have pitted citizens against their institutions. Jordan and Morocco have undertaken political reforms and Syrian Arab Republic is in the throes of civil war. Egypt.

for example. modernization can be destabilizing. Diverse experiences show that changes in political regimes do not automatically enhance voice.23 It is hard to predict when societies will reach a tipping point.practice. Of the 20 countries with the largest increases in mean years of schooling over 1980–2010. Egypt and Tunisia. employment opportunities have not kept pace with educational attainment Employment to population ratio (%) 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 1 0 1 2 Sudan Syrian Arab Republic Qatar United Arab Emirates Bahrain MEDIAN Morocco Yemen Iraq Libya Saudi Arabia Egypt Tunisia Jordan Algeria MEDIAN 3 4 5 6 7 Change in mean years of schooling. Even under autocratic governments. through promoting job creation and social inclusion.2. Many factors precipitate demands for change.22 This is not to suggest that Figure 4. especially among young people. had fairly well developed associational structures and self-­ d isciplined political opposition movements. By contrast. Accountability and inclusion are vital not only in the political sphere.2). but also in economic and social areas. When educated Accountability and inclusion are vital not only in the political sphere. Most countries that were part of the recent unrest in the Arab States are in the lower right quadrant of figure 4. employment opportunities failed to keep pace with educational attainment. which contributed to an all-out civil war. through promoting job creation and social inclusion In most countries. especially in societies with a large and growing educated population. This requires effective mediating institutions. inclusion or accountability or make states work more effectively. otherwise. because they had major gains in educational attainment but below-median employment to population ratios. 1980–2010 (years) Select Arab States Note: Analysis covers 141 countries. but also in economic and social areas. Employment to population ratios are for the most recent year available during 2006–2010. Building political cohesion after conflict is difficult in countries that lack a tradition of civic participation. 8 were in the Arab States (figure 4. In most of these countries.2 people should be educated only if there are jobs for them—in the human development paradigm. Libya lacked such experience. access to knowledge and education is an end in itself—but recent social upheavals show that a mismatch between education and economic opportunity can lead to alienation and despair. Source: Adapted from Campante and Chor (2012) using updated data. participation. Others Chapter 4  Sustaining momentum | 93 .

To sustain progress in human development. where governments in the North responded to demands from civil society and labour unions to regulate the market and extend social protection so that the market served society rather than society being subservient to the market. The public can be angry. The goal is high human development and a low ecological footprint per capita (the lower right quadrant of figure 1.275 0. Guatemala’s carbon productivity ($5. but if people believe that the cost in time and effort to engage in political action outweighs the likelihood of real change.575 0. tend to erupt when bleak prospects for economic opportunities lower the opportunity cost of engaging in political activity. some countries have greater carbon productivity than others.875 0. they may not act. 2008 (PPP $ per kilogram) 40 30 20 10 0 0. Governments also assumed power over macroeconomic policy and introduced some restrictions on international trade.28 Confronting environmental pressures A major challenge for the world is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Karl Polanyi documented the Great Transformation of 1944.25 Mass protests. Around the world people are calling on governments to become more accountable to citizens and to expand public opportunities to influence policymaking.3 At each HDI level. PPP is purchasing power parity. 24 Yet grievances alone do not trigger upheavals. especially by educated people. as in China.975 HDI Low HDI Medium HDI High HDI Very high HDI Note: Carbon productivity is GDP per unit of carbon dioxide.475 0. they tend to feel aggrieved.775 0.7 in chapter 1). At each HDI level. The time may be right again for a transformation. While it might seem that carbon productivity (GDP per unit of carbon dioxide) would rise with human development.60). Source: HDRO calculations based on World Bank (2012a). Meeting this challenge on a global scale requires that all countries adjust their development pathway: developed countries will need to reduce their ecological footprint. Only a few countries come close to creating such a globally reproducible high level of human development without exerting unsustainable pressure on the planet’s ecological resources. the correlation is quite weak (figure 4. Innovative clean technologies will pay an important part in this.3). Differences can be just as great among provinces or states within countries. countries with nearly identical HDI values.29 These findings reinforce the arguments that progress in human development need not worsen carbon use and that improved environmental policy can accompany human development. some countries have greater carbon productivity than others Carbon productivity. 94 | Human Development Report 2013 . appropriate for 21st century concerns and conditions. Consider medium HDI Guatemala and Morocco.675 0. far more attention needs to be paid to the impact human beings are having on the environment. Average years of schooling have risen over the past 30 years in all countries with data available.27 Many governments introduced regulations to constrain the activities of firms and improve working conditions and extended social services and social protection. Such transformations have taken place in the past. while developing countries will need to raise their HDI value without increasing their ecological footprint.375 0. These “effort-­ intensive forms of political participation”26 are then easily coordinated through new forms of mass communication.Around the world people are calling on governments to become more accountable to citizens and to expand public opportunities to influence policymaking young people cannot find work.00 per kilogram in purchasing power parity terms) is nearly twice that of Morocco ($2. Figure 4. For example.

31 For example. Under the base case scenario. Under a more severe “environmental disaster” scenario. The 2011 Human Development Report highlighted that equity and sustainability are inextricably linked.7 billion more people would live in extreme income poverty under the environmental disaster scenario than under the base case scenario.1 billion more people would live in extreme income poverty in 2050 under an environmental disaster scenario than under the accelerated progress scenario Managing demographic change Between 1970 and 2011. Some 3.33 The impact has been severe for small island developing states. Development prospects are influenced by the age structure of the population. Under this scenario. Second. by contrast. Lucia.000 deaths and damages totalling $365  billion. including loss of homes for about a million people. and ecosystem losses are constraining livelihood opportunities.35 Declining fertility rates and shifts in Chapter 4  Sustaining momentum | 95 . effectively halting or even reversing decades of human development progress in both regions. they hurt poor countries and poor communities most. the world population swelled from 3. Most dramatically. the average global HDI value would be 8% lower by 2050 than under the “base case” scenario. deforestation. In 2011 alone. they are likely to experience the greatest loss in annual rainfall and the sharpest increases in its variability. with dire implications for agricultural production and livelihoods. Some 3. the global HDI value in 2050 would fall 15% below that under the baseline scenario—22% below in South Asia and 24% below in SubSaharan Africa. and natural disasters affect everyone. The magnitude of such losses highlights the urgency of adopting coping measures to increase people’s resilience to global climate change. This Report looks more specifically at the impact of these environmental scenarios on the number of people living in extreme income poverty (figure 4. some of which have incurred losses of 1% of GDP—and some as much as 8% or even multiples of their GDP. environmental calamities would keep some 800 million poor people from rising out of extreme income poverty. and their consequences for poverty are likely to be high. Sustainable societies need policies and structural changes that align human development and climate change goals through low-emission.34 The 2011 Human Development Report examined several environmental scenarios. the higher the cost will be.30 Most disadvantaged people contribute little to global environmental deterioration. as well as its size. although low HDI countries contribute the least to global climate change. not a privilege.32 Natural disasters. First.1  billion more people would live in extreme income poverty in 2050 under the environmental disaster ­scenario than under the accelerated progress scenario (table  4. for example.9 billion people in extreme income poverty due to environmental degradation. A clean and safe environment should be seen as a right.4). landslides and ground settlements) resulted in more than 20. but they often bear the brunt of its impacts. the number of people in extreme income poverty worldwide would decline by 2050. as they would otherwise have done under the base case scenario (see Technical appendix).While environmental threats such as climate change. especially for poor people.6  billion to 7  billion. climate-resilient strategies and innovative public-private financing mechanisms. and pollution. cause enormous economic damage and loss of human capabilities. Some 2. which assumes a continuation but not a worsening of current environmental trends. St. access to clean water and improved sanitation. a consequence of two interrelated factors. lost almost four times its GDP in 1988 from Hurricane Gilbert. These outcomes underscore a central message of this Report: environmental threats are among the most grave impediments to lifting human development. The longer action is delayed.3). Climate change is already exacerbating chronic environmental threats. natural disasters accompanying earthquakes (tsunamis. the average regional HDI value in both South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa would be 12% lower under the environmental challenge scenario than under the base case scenario. which are increasing in frequency and intensity. The “environmental challenge” scenario factored in the anticipated adverse effects of global warming on agricultural production. air and water pollution. the model shows an increase of 1. and Granada lost twice its GDP in 2004 from Hurricane Ivan.

dependency ratios are likely to rise in medium.3 Population in extreme poverty under the environmental disaster scenario. where it fell 34%. such as South Asia and SubSaharan Africa.938 128 501 41 135 1. . 2010–2050 (millions) Difference From From accelerated Increase.36 Over 1970–2010.293 2050 145 530 45 167 1. high and very high HDI countries. 2050 scenario. however.Figure 4.055 3. by region.000 800 600 400 200 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 Environmental disaster scenario Base case scenario 2050 Note: Extreme poverty is defined as $1.720 144 522 44 155 1. Source: HDRO calculations based on Pardee Center for International Futures (2013). See Technical appendix for a discussion of the base case and fast track scenarios.129 2030 39 211 17 90 738 496 1.25 a day in purchasing power parity terms.150 Note: Extreme poverty is defined as $1.194 995 3. dependency ratios will continue to fall. 96 | Human Development Report 2013 Over 2010–2050. Table 4. the dependency ratio (the ratio of younger and older people to the working-age population ages 15– 64) declined sharply in most r ­egions—most dramatically in East Asia and the Pacific. base case progress 2010–2050 scenario.200 1. age structure can have considerable effects on economic growth.212 2020 25 142 6 50 530 377 1. particularly in developed countries and in East Asia and the Pacific.200 1.000 800 600 400 200 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Base case scenario Environmental disaster scenario 1.4 Different environmental scenarios have different impacts on extreme poverty Sub-Saharan Africa Population in extreme poverty (millions) South Asia Population in extreme poverty (millions) 1.592 2040 73 363 32 138 978 709 2. Changing demography will profoundly affect most countries in the South in coming decades.126 788 2. followed by Latin America and the Caribbean and the Arab States. where it dropped 39. 2050 120 319 30 134 650 685 1.054 Region Arab States East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa World 2010 25 211 14 34 557 371 1. See Technical appendix for a discussion of the base case and fast track scenarios.5%. but more slowly. Source: HDRO calculations based on Pardee Center for International Futures (2013).207 1. In poorer regions.25 a day in purchasing power parity terms.

say. 20. and a fast track scenario.4). In East Asia and the Pacific.41 Over 2010–2050. 17. South Asia and SubSaharan Africa. a 15. The challenges differ considerably by country under the two scenarios. the dependency ratio rises 15. Under the base case scenario.6 percentage points under the base case scenario but only 10.7 percentage point increase for very high HDI countries (figure 4. for example.3 percentage points. Chile would see a similar increase.2 percentage points and 17. The base case scenario projects a 9. as seen in many countries in recent years. The failure of economic opportunity and productivity to keep pace with these demographic changes can not only keep countries from benefiting from the demographic dividend. In the Arab States. For low HDI countries. it can also threaten social stability.8 percentage points. In the long term. Thailand (23. by education policies and sometimes by migration policies. In Sub-Saharan Africa.8 percentage points under the base case scenario and 25. Europe and Central Asia. at least indirectly.9 percentage points for low HDI countries.5).3 percentage points for very high HDI countries. the share of the elderly in the population rises for all HDI groups: 3. both demographic challenges can be mitigated by raising educational achievement.9 percentage points) or Indonesia Demographic trends are not deterministic. governments will need to foster job creation more actively to expand opportunities for productive employment for younger and older workers alike. in which enrolment ratios remain constant at each level of education. and Latin America and the Caribbean.7 percentage points for medium HDI countries. China would experience a more rapid increase (27. this rise is less pronounced for very high HDI countries.but in very different ways. however. however. the share of the young population is projected to fall in all HDI groups.39 Two scenarios for 2010–2050 illustrate the impact of different policy responses: the base case scenario.8 percentage points under the fast track scenario (table 4. education accelerates reductions in fertility rates where they are still high.37 Richer regions of the South. a 9 percentage point increase for medium HDI countries. in which countries with the lowest initial education levels embrace ambitious education targets. the dependency ratio is projected to decline under the base case scenario and even faster under the fast track scenario.2 percentage points for high HDI countries and 22.9 percentage points). Under the base case scenario. Modelling demography and education Demographic trends are not deterministic. At the same time.40 The dependency ratio is an increasingly critical concern.38 Effective policy options can be identified by modelling demographic and education trends. the dependency ratio for low HDI countries drops 21. education can boost labour productivity in richer countries with smaller workforces. Second.1 percentage points over 2010–2050. the dependency ratio is projected to increase.2 percentage point increase for high HDI countries and a 28. the dependency ratio falls 11.1 percentage points) and high HDI countries (4. First.3 percentage points) than. The dependency ratio rises more slowly under the fast track scenario than under the base case scenario for medium HDI countries (6. They can be influenced by education policies and sometimes by migration policies Chapter 4  Sustaining momentum | 97 .7 percentage point decline in the dependency ratio over 2010–2050 for low HDI countries. will confront the challenge of rising dependency ratios. A high dependency ratio can impoverish a country and lead to reversals in human development. In Brazil. They can be influenced. however. Under the fast track scenario. East Asia and the Pacific will see a striking increase in the share of the elderly—up 25. which is an even greater rise than in very high HDI countries. with ageing populations and full school enrolment mirrored by a decline in the number of people earning incomes. more than twice the decrease under the base case scenario. the dependency ratio will decrease because the decline in the share of the young population is greater than the rise in the share of the elderly population. Some poorer countries will benefit from a demographic dividend as the share of the population in the workforce rises. Brazil and Chile demonstrate the potential for ambitious education policies to alter dependency ratios. 20.7 percentage points under the fast track scenario.

55 0. and that differences in youth dependency ratios between rich and poor dissipate over time.85 0.95 0.45 1970 1990 2010 High HDI Dependency ratio Base case 0.42 Without proper policy measures. especially in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa. a recent study finds that youth dependency ratios tend to be higher for poor households and lower for wealthier ones.5 Education policies can alter dependency ratios Low HDI Dependency ratio Dependency ratio Medium HDI 0.7 percentage points).65 0. They can also outsource work to offshore production and attract international migrants.75 0. Source: HDRO calculations based on Lutz and KC (2013).Figure 4.85 0.55 0.85 0. demographic dynamics can increase inequality in 98 | Human Development Report 2013 the short run.65 0.95 0.55 0.95 0.55 0.75 0.45 2030 2050 1970 1990 2010 Very high HDI Dependency ratio Base case Fast track Fast track 2030 2050 0.43 Reinforcing the cross-country analysis conducted for this Report. given that differences in the speed of the demographic transition across households give richer households an initial advantage.45 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 0.95 0. .75 0. (8.75 0.65 0. particularly among women and older workers. They can reduce unemployment.44 During demographic transitions.65 0.45 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Base case Fast track Base case Fast track Note: See Technical appendix for a discussion of the base case and fast track scenarios. promote labour productivity and foster greater labour force participation. Countries can respond to a declining labour force in various ways. Declining fertility rates and shifts in age structures can affect economic growth.85 0. countries where even a more ambitious education policy would have only a limited impact on dependency ratios because education levels are already high.

637 0.807 0.491 0.759 0.904 0.796 0.467 0. indicating greater gender balance in the labour market.531 0. Eventually fertility is lower across all income groups.850 0.724 0.434 0.859 2000 0.434 0.457 0.422 0.673 0. Additional policy measures are needed to promote labour market conditions that offer productive opportunities for a more qualified and expanded labour force.450 0.499 0. Chapter 4  Sustaining momentum | 99 .462 0.504 0.501 0.457 China 0.929 1980 0. it fell most in the middle of the income range.656 0.656 0.300).800).510 0.451 0.4 Trends in dependency ratios.655 0.46 This short-term rise in inequality is not inevitable. the female labour participation rate grew faster than the overall labour participation rate over 2000–2004 to 2005–2010.481 0.736 India 0. it fell across the board in roughly equal amounts. In 13 of 18 countries with a declining dependency ratio and rising female education over 1970–2010.868 0.417 Turkey 0.946 1990 0.457 0.443 2040 0. Employment.671 0. Consider the three countries with the largest declines in child dependency ratios: Côte d’Ivoire (with a GDP per capita in 2011 of $1.463 0.686 0.704 0.481 0.460 0.571 0.458 0.433 0. the labour market situation became tighter for better educated female workers. in Namibia.630 0.946 0.474 0. did not necessarily become easier as education levels rose. especially in education and reproductive health. the dependency ratio fell most among the rich and least among the poor.478 Source: HDRO calculations based on Lutz and KC (2013).467 0.887 0. rising labour productivity over 1980–2008 and falling unemployment over 2005–2010.418 0.382 Ghana 0.549 0.587 0. and can be influenced by public policies.496 0. Then the middle class catches up as its members educate daughters and plan families. See Technical appendix for a discussion of the base case and fast track scenarios.564 0.717 0.437 0.756 0.811 0.483 Thailand 0.800) and Peru ($10.567 0.773 0.488 0.595 0. and the economic benefits of the demographic dividend are spread more evenly.560 0. and in Peru.560 Scenario Base case Fast track Base case Fast track Base case Fast track Base case Fast track Base case Fast track Base case Fast track Base case Fast track Base case Fast track Base case Fast track 2020 0.426 0. however.480 Chile 0.685 0.628 0.659 0. Indeed.585 0.846 0. followed by the poor. in some countries.562 0.404 0.447 0.540 0.609 0. In Côte d’Ivoire.504 0.47 See box 4.540 0.650 0.Table 4.645 0. the wealthiest people tend to lead the decline in fertility.656 0.454 0.589 0.638 0.514 0. 1970–2050 Country Bangladesh 1970 0.511 0.629 0.532 0.465 0.643 0. producing a short-term increase in income inequality as they capture the benefits of demographic change first.408 0.473 2050 0.570 0.799 0. selected countries.548 0.2 for a discussion of the distribution of the benefits of the demographic dividend in China and Ghana.704 2010 0.934 0.480 0.443 0.452 0.425 0.45 This is consistent with previous studies for Latin America and Africa.787 0.547 0.582 0.450 2030 0.547 Brazil 0.484 0.540 0.484 0.576 0. however. Namibia ($6. that enable the benefits of the demographic transition to reach all income groups at the same time.551 Indonesia 0.471 0.518 0.532 0.

The only . which assumes constant enrolment ratios over 2010–2050. with a large share of young people and a high dependency ratio (0. Impact of the rate of population ageing Populations are ageing faster than in the past.6). See Technical appendix for a discussion of the base case and fast track scenarios. China In 1970. Education levels. had improved considerably. Ghana had a population of 8. Ghana’s population pyramid would remain triangular. The population is projected to reach 65. at 0.645. the share of the working-age population rose faster than the share of the youth population. The cases of China and Ghana illustrate what can happen.382. figure 2). however. but just 48. base case scenario 2050. The youth population.4 million. See Technical appendix for a discussion of the base case and fast track scenarios. with strong education policies.736. especially among women. youth constituted the largest share of China’s population.2 China and Ghana: who benefits from the demographic dividend? The global trend towards slower population growth and population ageing is driven partly by China. with 1. At retirement. remained large. Figure 1  Demographic prospects for China Age 100+ 90 75 60 45 30 15 0 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Men (millions) Women (millions) Ages 0–14 No education 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Men (millions) Women (millions) Secondary education Tertiary education Ghana In 1970. as fertility rates decline and life expectancy rises. By 2030.06. By 2010. the ratio of boys to girls will fall to 1. The largest share of the population was young people. fast track scenario Primary education Primary education Source: Lutz and KC 2013. 83 in Australia and 69 in the United States. provided that job creation matches the labour supply of these new cohorts. with the population ages 60–64 becoming the largest cohort. mainly because of the decrease of the youth as a share of Ghana’s total population. China will thus face the challenge of an ageing population. to 24. As fertility rates fell. which is going through a demographic transition. Ageing is progressing faster still in developing countries.Box 4. for the share of the elderly population to double from 7% to 14% took 100 | Human Development Report 2013 more than a century (from 1865 to 1980) in France. with 1. The share of working-age people with no education would also fall. the age structure of China’s population in 2050 will be transformed. The productive-age population (ages 35–50). close to the global average. the world’s most populous country. The education level of the working-age group will rise considerably. A more skilled and productive workforce could offset some of the negative effects of a high dependency ratio and a large share of older people.6 million in the base case scenario.7  million. 85 years in Sweden. implying a rise in productivity and improved capacity for benefiting from the demographic dividend. the demographic outlook would change considerably as falling fertility rates lower the dependency ratio to 0. and the dependency ratio was still high.2 million in the fast track scenario. The gender imbalance became more pronounced among infants.18 boys for each girl. By 2010. In this scenario. currently the largest population share. For Sub-Saharan Africa. Its age structure had changed little. Ghana’s population had nearly tripled. a fast track education policy with incremental enrolment gains could accelerate the demographic transition and generate a demographic dividend for the region. The share of the population without formal education was also high. will reach retirement in 15–25 years. Source: Lutz and KC 2013. this cohort will have a higher educational attainment than its predecessors 40 years ago. although improvements in life expectancy rounded out the middle of the pyramid.770. Ghana’s prospects for 2050 differ markedly under the two education policy scenarios. Under the fast track scenario. In the base case. In eight of a sample of nine developing countries. Figure 2  Demographic prospects for Ghana 2050 Age 100+ 90 75 60 45 30 15 0 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Men (millions) Ages 0–14 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Women (millions) No education 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Men (millions) Women (millions) Secondary education Tertiary education 2010 2050. though smaller than in 1970. and the share of people with primary and secondary education had increased. Under the fast track scenario.48 For example.934). contributing to a more productive workforce. China’s population pyramid looked completely different.08 boys for each girl among infants ages 0–4 (figure 1). the share of the elderly population is projected to reach 14% in 30 years or less (figure 4.532. resulting in a high dependency ratio of 0. lowering the dependency ratio to 0. putting more pressure on the social sector and raising the dependency ratio. resulting in a high dependency ratio (0.

Countries that act promptly to take advantage of the demographic dividend and avoid further environmental damage can reap substantial gains. Low HDI India Indonesia Thailand Turkey 0 10 20 30 40 50 Years until share of population ages 65 and older reaches 14% Source: HDRO calculations based on Lutz and KC (2013).9 1.49 Figure 4. Many developing countries have only a brief window of opportunity to reap the full benefits of the demographic dividend of a larger working-age population. The importance of bold. Countries that do not could face high costs that would be compounded over time. The base case scenario assumes continuity with historical trends and policies in recent decades. a 20% expansion in infrastructure over 30 years and a 20% improvement in governance over 10 years.exception is Ghana.8 0.714). Countries do much better under the accelerated progress scenario. Aggregate HDI rises 52% in Sub-Saharan Africa (from 0. countries need to adopt ambitious policies that expand women’s education and that have cross-cutting benefits for human development. prompt policy action can be demonstrated through two more scenarios that show the impact of different policy measures on projected HDI and its components in 2050. they will struggle to meet the needs of an older population. The accelerated progress scenario sets some of the choices and targets along 12 policy dimensions for aggressive but reasonable interventions to reduce poverty. Figure 4.50 a 20% increase in health spending over 10 years. with progress most rapid in low HDI countries (figure 4. The projections of the base case scenario are fairly optimistic in that they carry forward the momentum of advances over recent decades. especially for low HDI countries Very high HDI High HDI Medium HDI Low HDI World 0.7).7 Human development prospects for 2050 are greater under the accelerated progress scenario.6 0. Timing is critical.5 0.0 Projected HDI in 2050 Base case Accelerated progress Note: See Technical appendix for a definition of the base case and accelerated progress scenarios. expand infrastructure and improve governance. a 50% increase in migration over 20 years. Chapter 4  Sustaining momentum | 101 .527 to 0.7 0. The rate of population ageing matters because if developing countries are still poor after the demographic transition. See Technical appendix for a discussion of the base case and fast track scenarios.4 0.402 to 0.612) and 36% in South Asia (from 0.6 Populations are ageing more rapidly in developing countries Bangladesh Brazil Chile China Ghana 2030–2050 2010–2035 2000–2025 2000–2030 2050–2100+ 2025–2055 2025–2040 2005–2025 2020–2040 The need for ambitious policies To accelerate and sustain development progress. including dramatic improvements in human development. Source: HDRO calculations based on Pardee Center for International Futures (2013). where it is expected to take 50 years or more. Examples of ambitious targets are a doubling of lending by international financial institutions over 10 years.

In Sub-Saharan Africa. medium and high HDI countries Base case scenario: low. In Sub-Saharan Africa. South Asia would see a stunning rise from $2. The effects are strongest for Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Figure 4. GDP per capita would rise from $8. income poverty almost disappears in China but decreases only marginally in SubSaharan Africa. Failing to act boldly to avert the environmental disaster scenario.9 under the accelerated progress scenario. would severely inhibit poverty reduction. nearly disappearing in some countries and regions (table 4. the average years of formal education in Sub-Saharan Africa are projected to rise from 4. Over the same period. improving governance has the next greatest impact through progress on reducing corruption.5).1 under the accelerated progress scenario. In most regions. life expectancy rises from 53. for instance. for example.70 0. ambitious policies raise HDI value in 2050 from 0.612 under the base case scenario to 0.873 in 2050 under the base case scenario and to $27. as the population continues to grow.80 0. but to 72.871 to $23. the greatest impacts result from policy interventions in health and education.4 in 2050 under the base case scenario. GDP per capita would rise from $1. which would still have more than 130 million poor people in 2030. Substantially reducing poverty by 2050 depends on ambitious policy measures. but to 8. Under the accelerated progress scenario.75 0.7 under the base case scenario.85 0. fully integrated policies can thus provide strong leverage for advancing human development (figure 4. strengthening democratic institutions and empowering women. where differences across scenarios are considerable in both cases. followed by the Arab States and Latin America and the Caribbean.8).7 years in 2010 to 69. medium and high HDI countries The two scenarios show notable differences in the individual dimensions of the HDI. This is true for all HDI groups. In Sub-Saharan Africa. Across all regions. The gains under the accelerated progress scenario are even larger for GDP per capita (figure 4. partly in response to sustained progress against HIV/AIDS and other communicable diseases.995 under the accelerated progress scenario.730 in 2050 under the base case scenario and to an impressive $13.651.55 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Accelerated progress scenario: low.210 under the accelerated progress scenario—more than double the level under the base case scenario. The differential rise in income directly influences poverty reduction.770 in 2010 to $17. In South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Source: HDRO calculations based on Pardee Center for International Futures (2013).00 0. Under the base case scenario.769 in 2010 to $5. But accelerating Note: See Technical appendix for a definition of the base case and accelerated progress scenarios.65 0.8 Human development outcomes through 2050 improve more under the accelerated progress scenario HDI Accelerated progress scenario: very high HDI countries Base case scenario: very high HDI countries 1. the number of poor people falls much more rapidly. Ambitious.60 0. Seizing the moment Greater progress in human development is both possible and imperative. however. The impacts are weaker in Europe and Central Asia and in East Asia and the Pacific.661.95 0. The largest differential gains would be in SubSaharan Africa and South Asia. 102 | Human Development Report 2013 . Under the accelerated progress scenario.3 to 6.9).countries thus converge towards the levels of human development achieved by high and very high HDI countries. and remains high in India.90 0. infrastructure investment is even more important. Globally.

See Technical appendix for a discussion of the base case and fast track scenarios. particularly of women. accelerated progress 1 9 0 1 13 13 2 60 96 Region or country Arab States East Asia and the Pacific China Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia India Sub-Saharan Africa World 2010 25 211 94 14 34 557 416 371 1.5 Figure 4.progress will require coordinated policy measures across development fronts. Most of the opportunities for sustaining and even accelerating the momentum in human development lie in the hands of national governments. Other major issues are environmental and demographic change. Chapter 4  Sustaining momentum | 103 . base case and accelerated progress scenarios. medium and high HDI countries Base case scenario: low. Table 4. especially people’s meaningful participation in the processes that shape their lives. countries need to act during brief windows of opportunity to avoid high costs in forgone human development. medium and high HDI countries 20 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Note: See Technical appendix for a definition of the base case and accelerated progress scenarios.25 a day in purchasing power parity terms. however. Source: HDRO calculations based on Pardee Center for International Futures (2013). Another is reducing child mortality: rapid progress is possible in all countries through education. Demand for participation grows as people become more educated and more connected. Source: HDRO calculations based on Pardee Center for International Futures (2013). base case 17 29 1 4 32 81 21 267 430 Note: Extreme poverty is defined as $1. 2010–2050 (millions) 2050. Policies also need to consider other forces that will influence development. governments do not act alone. The final chapter considers the complex web of international arrangements with which national governments need to engage and how regional and global institutions can work more effectively for sustainable human development. One of the most important of these is equity. because more-­ equitable societies fare better in most aspects of well-being and are more sustainable.9 Advances in GDP per capita through 2050 are especially strong under the accelerated progress scenario GDP per capita (2000 PPP $ thousands) 60 Accelerated progress scenario: very high HDI countries 50 Base case scenario: very high HDI countries 40 30 Accelerated progress scenario: low. In an increasingly globalized world.212 2020 19 74 13 2 29 382 270 333 841 2030 17 42 5 3 26 243 134 297 627 2040 16 29 1 3 27 135 53 275 485 2050. Number of people in extreme poverty by region and selected countries.

” Aung San Suu Kyi “The forces that unite us are intrinsic and greater than the superimposed influences that keep us apart.“Let us join hands to try to create a peaceful world where we can sleep in security and wake in happiness.” Kwame Nkrumah .

The rise of the South will make these systems more diverse: international cooperation is likely to involve an even more complex web of bilateral. as well as to a wider group of stakeholders. Civil society networks can now take advantage of new media and new communications technologies that make it easier to establish links between local and transnational activists and allow people to share ideas and concerns and to generate collective perspectives in a global public sphere. Civil society organizations have already influenced global transparency and rule setting on aid. India and other emerging economies have forged deeper and stronger economic relations with their neighbours and across the developing world: they are rapidly expanding their global markets and production. Country groups are in flux. At the same time. Some major challenges can be addressed constructively at the regional or bilateral level. they have presented innovative complements to the Bretton Woods financing institutions. Duplication of effort and failure to agree on common norms and goals are not just inefficient. progress has become more difficult. their coordination mechanisms have become increasingly unwieldy and in many cases deliberations among groups have come to a near standstill. peace and security. and many are much more actively engaged on the world stage. they are increasingly influential in global regulation of trade. every country’s actions have implications for its neighbours and. regional and global processes. Brazil. however. investment and health—sometimes directly and sometimes indirectly through alternative regional and subregional systems. The new arrangements promoted by the South and the resulting pluralism are challenging existing institutions and processes in the traditional domains of multilateralism—finance.2 New voices from the South are calling for more accountability and broader representation. But these issues also require longer term international solutions. today and in the future. Global and regional governance is becoming a multifaceted combination of new arrangements and old structures that need collective nurturing in multiple ways. for people everywhere.1 The growing diversity of voices in international governance thus brings both opportunities and challenges for human development. and they are influencing culture. In some respects. setting back human progress. often very much on their own terms. human rights. Governance and partnerships for a new era Today’s systems for international development and global governance are a mosaic of old structures and new arrangements. there are signs of a more diverse global civil society. All these structures. money and finance. including regional trade and security issues. The accountability of organizations must be extended to a wider group of countries.5. This chapter considers options and offers conclusions for this new era of partnership. Reforms in global institutions must be complemented by stronger cooperation with regional institutions—and in some cases broader mandates for those regional institutions. but potentially counterproductive. will need to work better in concert­ —particularly for the provision of public goods. It is vital to strengthen both global and regional organizations while extending representation and accountability to a wider group of states and stakeholders to reflect the emergence of these new forces. China. health and climate change. The continuing impasse in negotiations at the Doha World Trade Organization (WTO) round impedes progress towards agricultural self-sufficiency and the Chapter 5  Governance and partnerships for a new era | 105 . particularly regional arrangements and bilateral partnerships that permit them to engage on issues of their choosing. debt. science. Responsible sovereignty requires carefully and conscientiously taking into account the global and regional consequences of national behaviour. They have been pursuing their individual and collective interests through a variety of channels. ultimately. Countries of the South have been developing rapidly. In an interconnected world. the environment. trade.

importantly. when taking collective action. about 230 public-private partnership projects costing $15. what our respective responsibilities are. Public provision of goods is important at the national and global levels.eradication of poverty and hunger in Africa and elsewhere in the developing world. the Doha round remains stalled while an increasingly complex web of bilateral Box 5.3 Desirable global public goods include a stable climate and a healthy global commons. migration. To that end. progress on trade reforms (such as those involved in the Doha round of trade negotiations) and mechanisms to finance and produce green technologies. Cost savings from economies of scale are passed on to the public in the form of relatively cheap access to public transportation. the answer is to make public transport less of an inferior good by ensuring safety. For example. green technological breakthroughs are one of the most essential global public goods and must remain in the public domain.d. a much greener fuel than gasoline (the buses are run by both the public and the private sectors). Each area. oil and water. n.8  billion were implemented. Environmentally conscious societies tend to incentivize the use of public over private transport through congestion and carbon taxes on private vehicles. but coexistence of the public and the private is inevitable (box 5. The public partner safeguards property rights. has been significantly altered by the rise of the South A new global view of public goods This changing world has profound implications for the provision of public goods such as clean air and other shared resources that the market alone produces or allocates insufficiently or not at all and for which state mechanisms are essential. Areas of global international concern meriting urgent attention include trade. Mass public transport can minimize the congestion and carbon emissions from vehicles traditionally associated with private transportation. New Delhi mandates the use of compressed natural gas in public buses. Hu and Zhao 2009.1 The shifting line between public and private in transportation Whether mass transportation is provided publicly or privately has an important bearing on shared development goals of sustainability and affordable access. the elderly and the disabled. migration. Trade Countries throughout the South would benefit from the completion of the far-reaching international trade agreements envisioned by the Doha development round of the WTO. Because Source: World Bank 2003. Spurred by increasing gas prices. as in London. along with its governance. Other urgent issues such as climate change can be resolved only globally. it can be more amenable to the quick introduction of greener technologies. public funding and incentives are also required to ensure socially optimal levels of research into greener fuels and technologies. Public-private partnerships could be one way forward. more-affluent people generally prefer private transport. including students. The idea is to reduce the excludability of transportation services. Each area. the new position of the South presents opportunities for agreement and improved cooperation. private companies are likely to conduct research on greener fuels and technologies on their own account. what is best provided unilaterally and what multilaterally.. China has extensively used the build-­ operate-­transfer model of public-private partnerships for toll roads and other infrastructure. Most railway projects in Latin America and the Caribbean have been implemented through public-private partnerships. and. Cheng. Areas of global international concern meriting urgent attention and cooperation include trade. A society more concerned with equitable outcomes is more likely to provide greater amounts of public transportation. Making public transportation affordable is not the only challenge. They tend to result in more efficient construction and operation of projects. between 1995 and 2006. climate change and development. governments have partnered with the private sector to invest in research and development for alternative sources of energy. In more egalitarian societies. However. we need to rethink what is public and what is private. efficiency and reliability. low-earning groups. India has one of the most rapidly expanding public-private partnership programmes in transport. especially since the 2000s. and failing to act on them collectively today will make them even more acute and costly in the future. However. 106 | Human Development Report 2013 . along with its governance. For example. are likely to receive further discounts and subsidies. When a sizeable public transportation system already exists. At the same time. Milan and Singapore (and considered by San Francisco). Indeed.1). has been significantly altered by the rise of the South. They require rules for more stable financial markets. in responding to climate change and the depletion of natural resources such as coal. provides the regulatory framework and sometimes uses subsidies to meet the gap between private and social returns. climate change and development.

trading blocs tend to erect barriers to free trade with each other.7 Migration In 2010. The beneficial impact of these dialogues could be multiplied by global initiatives on migration issues.10 In 2012.6 As research for this Report has shown. international coordination mechanisms could provide a supporting framework for the emerging networks of regional and bilateral agreements. involving fewer and sometimes more-homogeneous players. While encouraging freer trade among members. for example. by destination countries or bilateral. originating largely from the South—there is a growing need for rules to protect the rights of migrants and provide agreed international norms for the flow of immigrants between source and host countries. while the costs of inaction will continue to mount. While remittances provide income for poor households. migration patterns are changing.4 Still. in both economic and social terms. without the deadlock encountered at the multilateral level. such as the Economic Community of West Africa States and the Common Market of the South. such as the negotiation of voluntary best-practice guidelines for new regional trade agreements and modifications of existing ones: the WTO could. There are few mechanisms for multilateral coordination. regional organizations and economic integration processes have added migration to their agendas. all-too-common mistreatment in the workplace and the unnecessary and indefensible degradation of human With the rise of the South. Yet governance of migration is largely unilateral. In recent years. While the governance of migration is not inevitably or exclusively a multilateral issue. Multilateral mechanisms could liberalize and simplify channels that allow people to seek work abroad. the rights of migrants. from security to water resource management. freer and fairer trade rules can accelerate human development when coupled with sustained public investment in human capabilities—including health. Nearly half of remittances sent home to countries in the South come from emigrant workers in other developing countries.11 Such rules would benefit all parties. organize a hierarchy of guidelines for North– North. nondiscriminatory trade regime are best overseen by a stronger. one way forward is to gradually “multilateralize regionalism”. migration patterns are changing. North–South and South–South regional trade agreements. have facilitated greater economic interaction and policy cooperation in other areas as well. These bilateral and regional arrangements offer opportunities for further South–South economic integration and provide a training ground for building competitive strengths. reduce transaction costs associated with migration and improve outcomes for migrants and destination communities alike. Subregional trade and investment groups.9 With the rise of the South. These include the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. ensure basic rights for migrants. most importantly. Many aspects of a freer. the Global Forum on Migration and Development held discussions on South–South migration for the first time.and regional trade arrangements has developed.8 Real human development concerns are at stake. but since regionalism may be here to stay. education and other social services—and essential infrastructure—such as modern transportation and telecommunications links. can align interests and realize mutual gains for those engaged. the African Union.5 Other efficiency losses can result from the increased market power that countries gain by consolidating into trading blocs. despite the benefits of bilateral and regional trade agreements. This would involve the WTO’s initiating “soft-law” ideas. ultimately reducing global welfare. These arrangements. without better global trade rules and coordinating mechanisms there are considerable efficiency costs. With the continuing growth in annual international migration—from an estimated 70  million four decades ago to more than 200  million today. social upheaval and disruption also come with large-scale migration. the Common Market of the South and the Southern African Development Community. reinvigorated set of multilateral agreements. Nearly half of remittances sent home to countries in the South come from emigrant workers in other developing countries Chapter 5  Governance and partnerships for a new era | 107 . at least 25 economies of the South reported remittance inflows from migrants exceeding 10% of GDP. These costs are not solely or even primarily financial: they include the profound human costs of forcibly prolonged family separation.

said it would obtain 85% of its energy needs in Mexico from renewable resources. on the one hand. this partnership would establish an international governing mechanism and indicators for assessing progress. Traditional Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) donors recognized that a different governance structure would be needed to support a broader partnership and accommodate emerging economies. through the Consumer Goods Forum. Unilever. China and India. and the modest reductions promised. the Latin American soft drink bottler.15 Addressing climate change requires true multilateralism. coupled with a demand on behalf of partner countries to explain any deviance.dignity when foreign resident workers are not accorded basic legal rights. the North and the South have to reach a mutually acceptable and fair agreement on how to share responsibilities while ensuring that the legitimate development aspirations of the South can be met. Coca-Cola and Walmart were among 20 large multinational corporations that committed. on the other. new development partners. the OECD’s Development Assistance Committee and the United Nations Development Programme are to jointly support the new Global Partnership for Effective Development Cooperation Climate change Climate change is perhaps the most widely recognized issue that requires global cooperation through multilateral agreements. inclusive development partnerships.12 In 2010. a wide gap remains between the emissions reductions needed. commitments and actions agreed in Busan shall be the reference for south-south partnerships on a voluntary basis”.18 Based on the core principles of national ownership and capacity. endorsed the principles of national ownership and capacity building. mutual accountability and transparency were selected as the underlying pillars for a new global monitoring framework. Mozambique announced a new Green Economy Roadmap. to reduce global greenhouse emissions by the amount required.16 Microsoft promised to go carbon-neutral by 2012. The 2012 UN Conference on Sustainable Development in Rio de Janeiro created opportunities for collaboration and alliances among groups of rich and poor. aiming to cut emissions and build the renewable energy sector.19 Moving forward. including Brazil. And FEMSA. through new financing arrangements and technological cooperation that offer alternatives to or complement the approaches of traditional donors and strengthen choices for aid recipients. Republic of Korea. Stronger emphasis was placed on country systems as the way of doing business. Addressing climate change requires true multilateralism 108 | Human Development Report 2013 . and civil. focus on results. The South is going beyond bilateral approaches by incorporating ways to tackle climate change into national development strategies. Along with traditional donors. However. to eliminating deforestation from their supply chains. And Mexico recently enacted the world’s first comprehensive climate change law. India announced voluntary targeted reductions of 20%–25% in carbon intensity. This was reflected in the text of the declaration.13 Korean lawmakers approved a national emissions trading programme in March 2012 to reduce emissions from factories and power plants. In 2011. Development cooperation An essential component of more-inclusive international governance should be more-­ inclusive and more-­ effective forms of development cooperation. the Busan Declaration noted that these partners have domestic development challenges of their own and have their established methods of foreign cooperation. corporate and state bodies. For example.17 Despite many promising initiatives though. which stated that for these countries the “principles. developing countries and civil society organizations endorsed the Busan Partnership for Effective Development Cooperation at the 4th High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness in Busan. For example. public and private. China has pledged to reduce its carbon intensity (carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP) 40%–45% from 2005 levels by 2020. Ownership.14 At the UN Conference on Sustainable Development in Rio de Janeiro in 2012. Developing countries are increasingly providing development assistance and investment bilaterally and regionally.

once common understanding is reached at the global level. the rising South has to assume more responsibility on the global stage. with its universal membership. Agreement on these goals gave impetus to a wide range of activities and institutions by highlighting a simple truth: enhancing the capabilities of people and advancing the development of all societies are important global public goods.through the UN Development Cooperation Forum. Better representation for the South The current institutions and principles for international governance require rethinking or at least recalibrating to accommodate the growing diversity in voice and power and to sustain long-term development progress. One of the main tasks is to achieve better alignment between North–South and South–South development cooperation and global norms. the regional development banks and even the UN system all risk diminishing relevance if they fail to represent all member states and their people adequately. despite changing global economic realities. Similarly. But some intermediate priorities have surfaced. Greater transparency and accountability in global institutions. is well positioned to engage partners from the South in such trilateral development cooperation through the UN Development Cooperation Forum. Developing countries are already playing a greater role in the Bretton Woods institutions and in global dialogues through the summits for Group of 20 (G20) heads of state. At the same time.22 The major international institutions need to be more representative. China. including by contributing more resources to multilateral organizations. The Busan agreement marks a first step in reshaping development cooperation so that it can be more effective and better harness the potential of emerging countries. who can contribute knowledge and experience from a developing country perspective. As with other global public goods. The post-Busan architecture has yet to take shape. through national initiatives and ownership. long before the rise of the South. The OECD has opened membership to some current institutions and principles for international governance require rethinking to accommodate the growing diversity in voice and power and to sustain long-term development progress Chapter 5  Governance and partnerships for a new era | 109 . Take the Millennium Declaration of September 2000 and the global agreement on the Millennium Development Goals that eventually emerged. Despite signatories’ commitment to transparency.23 The South has to take larger leadership roles at both the regional and global levels. Latin America and such unrepresented developing country powers as India. One is for traditional donors to meet their commitments from the 2005 Group of Eight Gleneagles summit to increase aid and to deliver on better coordination and alignment. these institutions greatly underrepresent the South. transparent and accountable. the United Nations Security Council makes decisions on global peace and security with a permanent membership that reflects the geopolitical structure of 1945. There have been some positive moves in this direction.20 Traditional donors can also work with emerging donors. has had a smaller voting share in the World Bank than both France and the United Kingdom. These bodies need to respect and draw constructively on the experiences of both the South and the North and to aim for equitable and sustainable outcomes for present and future generations. The Bretton Woods institutions. will facilitate more such participation by the South. several heads of government from the South again voiced their long-standing demands for permanent seats on the council for Africa. while desirable in and of themselves. Voting quotas in the Bretton Woods institutions are weighted towards countries in the North. At the 2012 United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York. which is the world’s second largest economy and holds more than $3  trillion in foreign reserves. for a post–Second World War order that does not match contemporary reality. The United Nations. For example. in line with its increasing economic power and political clout. operationalizing the principles can in most cases be decentralized to national governments using the agreed common policy frameworks. the outcome document does not contain any other time-bound measurable commitments or targets to which citizens can hold them to account.21 The actual progress in the achievement of these goals has been very much at the country level. As a consequence. Many were designed.

Global civil society International governance institutions can be held to account not just by member states. state and nonstate. articulate diverse concerns and embrace an almost endless variety of political messages but share the basic concern of making transnational power and governance accountable to civil society. which can bring substantial financial. Encouraging global leaders.International governance is increasingly influenced by a multitude of voices and actors through global movements and transnational activist networks developing countries. Indeed. to exercise leadership to assist the international community on issues that are caught in global policy stalemates and problems that are reaching crisis proportions. which cut across a range of issues. innovating in climate change mitigation and concluding the Doha development round. • Citizen participation. today’s multilateral institutions are encouraged to recalibrate their representation and guiding principles. which can shape the exercise of power and act as a countervailing force to states and markets. unions and community groups—have used channels of influence such as elections. There is scope for renewed multilateralism. technological and human resources. Matching the circles of stakeholders and decisionmakers so that all have an effective voice in global matters that concern them. technical assistance and finance. However. To this end. as the success of the South extends benefits to the North and advances the prosperity of all. Developed countries should welcome these changes. the Sanitarista movement of health care professionals played a central role in developing the country’s public health care system and expanding services to the poor. Global organizations that are more representative of the world’s countries would in principle be accountable to the world’s people through national governments. The United Nations Economic and Social Council. for example. • Leadership. More-determined reform is needed for multilateral institutions to facilitate cross-national collaboration on stalemated global issues in ways viewed as fair and just by all countries. However. • Public goods. social movements. multisector. has established the Development Cooperation Forum to promote more broadbased discussion of development assistance. In Brazil. some intergovernmental processes would be invigorated by greater participation from the South. Indeed. Realigning existing organizations to reflect changing global economic and political realities. Egypt. but also by global civil society. Emerging economies could lead in achieving the Millennium Development Goals. this has been the thrust of antiglobalization movements. there have been only modest governance reforms at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. multiactor production that many global public goods require. International governance is increasingly influenced by a multitude of voices and actors through global movements and transnational activist networks. International organizations are becoming more inclusive and sensitive to the requirements of a rapidly changing world. lobbying. Drawing on the wealth of ideas and views emerging from citizen networks and from participants previously sidelined from the global discourse. and vesting them with the authority and expertise to effectively mediate among different stakeholders. The United Nations Security Council’s core structure remains unchanged.24 National civil society groups are increasingly using their experience engaging with national governments to open up independent 110 | Human Development Report 2013 . individually or collectively. In the Indian state of Kerala a rich history of civic engagement influenced the government to prioritize extensive social rights and equity-­ promoting public policies. • Information and resources. media and public campaigns to become drivers of social change within many leading countries of the South—including Brazil. Building bridges across organizational lines to facilitate the multilevel. India and South Africa. advocacy groups. despite decades of debate. • Convening. state mediation alone is inadequate. Helping poorer countries in the South participate more effectively in global governance through better access to information. in areas such as: • Voice. sometimes self-described as “global democracy” movements. All kinds of voluntary associations—including nongovernmental organizations.

civil society activity may magnify rather than reduce inequalities and instability. rather than social rights. more open access to AIDS medicines and campaigns opposing violence against women. Indeed. unmediated by state power or markets. but the rapid sharing of information across social networks clearly sways public opinion on issues that matter to the global citizenry and ultimately influences international governance. which are of particular concern to civil society in Eastern Europe. one of the most valuable tools of global civil society is the ability to diffuse new norms that transform the behaviour of state and private actors.28 The future legitimacy of international governance will depend on the capabilities of institutions to engage with citizen networks and communities—understanding their concerns and borrowing from their ideas and approaches to find direction for their own efforts and energies. These transnational networks are laying the groundwork for an emerging global civil society that is pushing for action on issues ranging from climate change to migration policy to human rights. The idea of ecological citizenship.networks of North–South and South–South dialogues outside traditional official international governance channels.25 There may be disagreement over the legitimacy of particular concerns and platforms. the likely contribution of civil society organizations and transnational networks should be kept in perspective. international organizations need to form productive partnerships with social media communities and nongovernmental organizations in the South and North alike. have shown that social media is a force that world leaders and global institutions ignore at their peril. Limitations on civic space as well as other constraints can affect the capacity of civil society organizations to function. While global civil society holds much potential for influencing international governance norms and decisionmaking. Higher levels of resourcing lead the international nongovernmental organizations of the North to wield disproportionate influence in the global civil society space. for example. The rapid spread and wide response to the video Kony 2012. economic influence or traditional authority. The recent uprisings in several Arab States countries. which figure much more centrally in the demands of popular movements in the South. global civil society networks have been influential in institutionalizing anti–land mine legislation.27 A further consideration is one of transparency. which enables hyperconnectivity of disparate groups and offers platforms for citizens’ ideas and concerns to spread rapidly around the globe. the culmination of complex historical developments. about indicted war criminal Joseph Kony of the Lord’s Resistance Army. When civil society organizations become extensions of state power. civil society networks can put new issues on the table and influence government and international action towards new treaties. often emphasizes civil and political rights. People can speak to people. Such engagement will maximize the legitimacy of their actions and ensure accountability to the citizens of member states (box 5. the antislavery movement and the Red Cross movement that led to the production of the Geneva conventions and the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. and communities of scientists and other professionals can share ideas. Classic examples of civil society influence on global norms include the global diffusion of the women’s suffrage movement. 26 The international human rights regime. showed that social media can engage many millions of people in discussion of important issues within days. stronger enforcement mechanisms and even direct intervention. By taking up and framing issues and pressuring states. may be a promising way to construct from the ground up global public opinion on the provisioning of global public goods. They should engage with citizen groups to support policy changes and a transition towards more-equitable principles and institutions of global civil society has the ability to diffuse new norms that transform the behaviour of state and private actors Chapter 5  Governance and partnerships for a new era | 111 . for example. This new ease of global communication is fuelling creative partnerships.2). The potential for global civil society to influence decisionmaking on critical global issues has been greatly magnified by the Internet revolution. as it can be unclear how autonomous civil society groups are from state and market forces. empowering individuals and social organizations. More recently. leading to new forms of solidarity and allowing people to interact and express their values internationally.29 To be effective.

A world parliament would serve as a link between national policymaking and global decisionmaking. As noted in chapter 2. during which it would issue recommendations and add agenda items to the UN General Assembly and. This idea is not new.Box 5. Jo Leinen. the quest for equity and sustainability and the urgency of addressing defining challenges for our planet require the engagement of the global citizenship. In many areas. has had to manage state interests carefully and adjust to the emphasis on privatizing health services that became dominant in the 1980s. protecting shared ecosystems and removing barriers to intraregional commerce. such 1. it makes sense for like-minded neighbouring states to address these challenges cooperatively while pursuing global responses to these issues where needed. it is receiving increasing support from civil society actors and regional parliaments (including the European. programmes for eradicating endemic diseases. regional institutions have the potential to complement global structures. submit agenda items to the UN Security Council for debate and decisions. have enabled it to continue to pursue policies that emphasize a rights-based approach to health. however. although the final decisionmaking power would remain with national governments. but as it matures. It is integrating. even if that kind of coordination seems rare or inadequately synchronized today. Beeston 2012. Since the great majority of national parliaments are democratically elected.1 A world parliament would be composed of delegates from national parliaments. representing multiple political parties from each country. A world parliament would complement the United Nations General Assembly—either formally integrated in the UN system or instituted as a separate body.30 The challenge facing the multilateral system is not a false choice between older structures devised by the North and newer arrangements responding to the needs of the developing world. an approach considerably different from international bodies where voting quotas are based on monetary contributions. for example. by a qualified majority. with all the attendant risks of exclusion. it is integrating. Diversity and flexibility in global governance mechanisms can be net positives for the international system but cannot substitute for the global pursuit of solutions to problems that are inherently global in nature. Its core commitments to public health and its ties to civil society.2 A world parliament for global democracy? Legitimacy and representativeness of the world’s people in global decisionmaking are imperative for the governance of global issues. Latin American and African Parliaments) and was recently highlighted in the Manifesto for Global Democracy put forward by a multinational group of intellectuals. At a time when intergovernmental decisionmaking has shown its limits. duplication and interagency competition. providing incentives for national parliaments and governments to consider the implications of decisions beyond national borders and instilling national parliaments with knowledge and experience on governing global issues. Global governance arrangements must respect the mixed strategies that countries are choosing. Member of the European Parliament a body would have a high level of representativeness and political accountability. The deliberations would possess a high moral and political authority. The composition of each national delegation could be determined either by national parliaments or through special elections allowing citizens to choose representatives for the world parliament. but global decisionmaking bodies have no institutional mechanisms for effective and influential citizen participation. Rather. The World Health Organization. It is clear that developing and emerging economies are choosing to cooperate in different ways—bilaterally. Increasing regional cooperation can also have disadvantages—adding further complexity to an already diverse array of multilateral institutions. coordinating and in some cases reforming these institutions so that they can work more effectively together Towards coherent pluralism The challenge facing the multilateral system in response to the rise of the South is not a false choice between globalism and regionalism or between older structures devised and managed by the traditional powers of the North and newer arrangements responding to the needs of the developing world. Recent experience in much of the South has shown that some public goods can be effectively provided at the regional level. In such c ­ ases. regionally and 112 | Human Development Report 2013 . regional institutions can sometimes respond to regional needs faster and more efficiently than can global forums—for example. international governance. with shared norms and goals supporting varied yet complementary regional and global development initiatives. This assembly could have one extended annual session. Policymakers working both regionally and internationally should strive towards a more coherent pluralism in multilateral governance. coordinating and in some cases reforming these institutions so that they can all work more effectively together. Delegation size would be proportional to a country’s population.

these emerging institutions and arrangements could substitute for some of the functions of the Bretton Woods institutions. which allows members to draw on the multilateral swap facility to address balance of payments and short-term liquidity difficulties. The South has already developed several alternative institutions and approaches. multilateralism will need to be more flexible to deal with new challenges and geopolitical realities. they should be encouraged. The international regime needs to be pluralist while ensuring that cooperation at the regional and subregional levels is consistent with mechanisms and policies at the international level. taking the form of a series of swap arrangements among Asian countries. International institutions can also provide guidance on human rights and other universal principles and arbitrate in such areas as public international law. However. In finance. aligning interests and sharing responsibilities. avoiding duplication to the greatest extent possible. even if it may appear fledgling and inadequate at present. To fully engage the South. Over time. • The Arab Monetary Fund. countries have created new forms of governance to deal with these. support longrun productive capacities. some organizations will survive. Moreover.internationally. for example. to analyse and respond to often divergent interests and to propose workable and mutually beneficial outcomes. This could promote financial stability and resilience. duplication and inefficiency occur among the plethora of new organizations. In a coherent pluralistic system. they need the mandate and sufficient expertise and resources to mediate and facilitate. has some $2. and others will be deemed redundant. countries want to diversify their exposure and their “insurance policies”.3  billion. including regional monetary and support arrangements: • The Chiang Mai Initiative emerged in the wake of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Where new arrangements and new partnerships arise to meet the gaps left by old arrangements. The South in turn is more likely to use and fully support multilateral institutions that are seen to be acting as much in the interests of the South as in the interests of developed countries. but in most cases. many international organizations need updating and transforming. founded in 1976 by the 22 member countries of the League of Arab States. playing a catalytic or convening role for all stakeholders. There is also an aspiration for a unified Arab currency. private and civil society organizations. Financial architecture: redesign for the rising South The rise of the South is creating new patterns of resource accumulation. as new sets of challenges have emerged. they complement the existing global financial architecture. New arrangements at all levels must work in concert with each other and in step with existing multilateral organizations. They seek to use a mixture of national reserves.32 • The Latin American Reserve Fund. It evolved into the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization. The complementarity not just between global and regional institutions. The ultimate purpose of this “coherent pluralism” is to ensure that institutions at all levels work in a coordinated fashion to provide global public goods. The governance of global public goods for sustained progress in human development requires effective multilateralism. regional arrangements and the IMF. Moving towards a coherent structure.7 billion to support emergency financing for member countries as well as broader monetary cooperation. It also guarantees third-party loans and The ultimate purpose of “coherent pluralism” is to ensure that institutions at all levels work in a coordinated fashion to provide global public goods Chapter 5  Governance and partnerships for a new era | 113 . In some cases. offers balance of payments support to members. international institutions can serve as coordinating bodies. governance principles and conditionalities. advance human development and enlarge national policy space. To do this. bilateral credit lines. but also across public. has the potential to be constructive. While pluralism and greater diversity are welcome developments. emerging institutions may prove transformative by prodding the Bretton Woods institutions to respond to concerns about representation. with a capitalization of about $2. potentially leading to a denser.31 • The Reserve Bank of India recently announced a $2  billion swap facility for members of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. multilayered and more heterogeneous financial architecture.

however. In May 2012. In April 2009. 2012. and it introduced new types of temporary rapid financing programmes and countercyclical lending facilities to support developing and low-income countries. Some institutions. the ADB responded more quickly and with larger loans than the IMF and the World Bank did. with benefits at least as large as those providing greater access to markets in the North. Indonesia proposed that a portion of the IMF’s new financing be devolved to the ADB.) The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office opened on 30 January 2012 to conduct IMF Article IV–type monitoring of members. The evolving regional financial architecture fostered by countries of the South offers renewed space for policies that emphasize pragmatism rather than ideology and ensures that conditionality is narrow and appropriate to the country (box 5. Japan and the Republic of Korea (ASEAN+3). the ADB’s lending commitments grew 42% and its disbursements 33%. such as the Latin American Reserve Fund. the ADB introduced the Countercyclical Support Facility to provide up to $3 billion to economies in Asia affected by the crisis. 114 | Human Development Report 2013 .4). even as the Doha round of global trade negotiations has stalled. And for the first time. Chin 2010. implementation of remedial actions and effective decisionmaking by the initiative. OECD estimates Regional finance in Asia: Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization and the Asian Development Bank The current financial crisis has been a powerful impetus for expanding the scope of the Chiang Mai Initiative.36 renounce conditionality altogether. and it remains a point of discussion among members. nearly all of which are developing countries (except Portugal and Spain). Its potential is limited by its incomplete regional membership. such as the nascent Bank of the South. does not participate. The crisis accelerated this trend. allowing members to draw on swaps governed by a formula based on country size. do not necessarily reduce the role of the IMF. AMRO 2012. Its purposes are to monitor and analyse regional economies and to contribute to the early detection of risks. a regional agreement among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. pending the outcome of current discussions). Some observers have noted the tensions over the mandate and the continuing reluctance in Asia to criticize the policies of regional neighbours and thus the obstacles to conducting firm surveillance. Prior to the global financial crisis. In early 2009. The maturity of both the IMF-linked and the delinked swaps were lengthened. Multilateralization”. including the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization and the Arab Monetary Fund. With Group of 20 backing.35 Regional institutions that lend closer to home are also more likely to design programmes that are more sensitive Box 5.33 • The Andean Development Corporation is gaining attention due to its fourfold growth in lending over 1991–2007 and almost exclusive ownership by members. a precautionary credit line facility was introduced. ADB 2009. Ocampo and others 2010.facilitates reserve investments and regional coordination of monetary policies. ASEAN+3 members have continued to deepen the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization. as with the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (box 5. apply surveillance but do not use the IMF’s top-down approach and instead collaborate with borrowing governments. Regional trade agreements Regional and subregional trade arrangements have expanded and deepened in Africa.3). At that time. (The Asian Bond Market Initiative was also expanded in May 2012. the size of the currency swap pool was doubled to $240 billion. Other regional development banks quickly followed the ADB’s example and were granted a portion of the new funds committed to the IMF to establish new regional lending facilities to promote rapid counter­ cyclical support within their region. the Asian Development Bank (ADB) was already lending more in the region than the World Bank was. the region’s largest economy. Between 2008 and 2009. use conditionality only in specific circumstances.34 Such regional arrangements.3 to political concerns and economically appropriate. In some cases. Asia and Latin America. Ciorciari 2011. It describes itself as the “regional surveillance unit of the Chiang Mai Initiative Source: Woods 2010. the initiative was multilateralized and renamed the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization. disbursements of more than 20% of the credits available to a country required that the borrowing country be under an International Monetary Fund (IMF) surveillance programme to address the difficult task of devising and implementing regional surveillance. For 2012–2013. Brazil. Agreements that open up South–South trade hold enormous potential. Large disbursements from the funds can require borrowing countries to be under IMF surveillance programmes. Others. plus China. with light-touch surveillance and less emphasis on conditionality. the need to be under an IMF programme does not become operative until the swap drawn equals 30% of the maximum for the country (40% in 2014. Still others.

there is huge potential for increasing the trade of the region’s many and diverse crops. CAF obtained its first credit ratings in 1993 from the three main rating agencies. negotiations aimed at reducing the massive production and export subsidies in agriculture given mainly by developed countries. providing a useful example of pragmatic financial integration. together with its member countries. La Paz. Montevideo. in which 22 developing countries agreed to reduce tariffs at least 20% on about 70% of the trade among themselves. and it obtains most of its funding in global financial markets. nondiscriminatory trade could be overseen by a global multilateral institution like the WTO or by regional bodies. with approvals of more than $10 billion at the end of 2011. the maintenance of prudent financial policies (especially in times of economic stress) and its policy of nonconditionality. However. Bilateral arrangements can facilitate trade flows when multilateral negotiations stall. CAF’s countercyclical role in times of economic turbulence in international markets and its support to shareholders when financing has become scarce have been especially valuable. In this regard. In addition to channelling funds from international markets to the region. the Caribbean and Europe as well as 14 private banks. through grants and technical cooperation. Since its foundation. even during economic crises in the region. Europe Latin America and the United States. Lima. grants and technical support and offers financial structuring to public and private sector projects in Latin America. which allows developing countries to provide concessions to each Box 5. An example of a successful regional arrangement is the Sao Paulo Round in 2010. CAF’s performance has been distinguished due to capacity to adapt to a changing and challenging environment. CAF has provided substantial financing at times when markets were “dry” and other international financial institutions were imposing stringent conditions on their financing. Over the last decade. Bogota. Member countries have always supported the institution. CAF borrows in international capital markets through a funding strategy that aims to diversify sources of financing to mitigate interest rate and currency risks while matching the average maturity of its assets and liabilities to maintain sufficient liquidity in its portfolio. CAF is one of the main sources of multilateral financing for infrastructure and energy in the region. Of particular importance has been its governance structure. for example. CAF is recognized as an institution run by and for Latin America. this issue is almost impossible to settle satisfactorily in a bilateral or regional setting. even during economic crises. Since 1993 CAF has borrowed more than $13. Its headquarters are in Caracas. CAF promotes sustainable development and regional integration through credit operations. Never in CAF’s history has a member country defaulted on its obligation.4 CAF: a Latin American development bank other without jeopardizing their most favoured nation obligations.9 billion through 87 bond issues in the most important international capital markets in the Asia. to improve the quality of institutions and to promote environmental conservation. Buenos Aires. CAF When established in 1970. has designed and implemented an ambitious agenda of programmes and projects supported by grants aimed at tackling some of Latin America’s major obstacles to growth. CAF’s shareholders have given the institution the autonomy to design and implement operational policies without political pressure. Peru and Venezuela). Those subsidies distort world trade and expose farmers in developing countries to unfair competition. its shareholders include 18 countries from Latin America. CAF. or some 30% of total multilateral lending for Latin America (compared with and $12. Among the reasons for CAF’s success in the region are its Latin American essence. Take. Brasilia. Today.37 Even within Africa. CAF is now the highest rated frequent bond issuer in Latin America. Prudent financial policies have made CAF a profitable institution that reinvests. which has resulted in higher commodity prices. it requires Enrique Garcia. see Ocampo and Titelman 2012). the multilateral bank CAF had five Andean country members (Bolivia.9 billion for the World Bank. Other options such as preferential trade arrangements for furthering the goal of freer. a stable macroeconomic environment and greater domestic demand due to poverty reduction and higher income. Latin America has experienced rapid economic growth thanks to a favourable external environment. Chapter 5  Governance and partnerships for a new era | 115 . established to take advantage of the enabling clause within the agreements of the WTO. Madrid. The reductions were negotiated within the 1989 framework of the Global System of Trade Preferences.a welfare gain for the South of $59 billion if South–South tariffs were lowered to that of North–South levels. and it has offices in Asuncion. Ecuador. CAF has helped its member countries take advantage of these favourable economic conditions through a comprehensive development agenda that includes projects and programmes designed to support the region’s productive transformation and its competitive participation in the global economy. and its ratings have steadily improved.4 billion for the Inter-American Development Bank and $13. directed mainly to infrastructure projects. President. CAF has avoided the conflicts that have arisen in other multilateral institutions where donors’ and recipients’ aims are not always aligned. With an ownership that is almost entirely Latin American (Portugal and Spain are minority shareholders due to their historical ties to the region). the strong political and financial commitment of its member countries. Quito and Panama City. Colombia. in programmes and projects to support its member countries. Today. given appropriate institutional arrangements for more open agricultural trade.

and the costs of inaction will mount. Overly strict adherence to the primacy of national sovereignty can encourage cross-border rivalries and zero-sum thinking. the initiative lacks procedures to ensure that the principles are upheld. National action does not ensure that a country’s citizens have access to global public goods. If national leaders are unable to look beyond narrowly conceived immediate national interests. In this view. one way forward is to gradually “multilateralize regionalism”. the potential gains from cooperation will be lost.39 There are no agreed thresholds of violations or atrocities that would automatically activate international interventions. Countries and regional and multilateral organizations must come together and align national policies towards common international goals. due to its rising economic stature and political influence. is an increasingly important partner in global decisionmaking. Responsible sovereignty includes taking steps towards collective endeavours—such as trade liberalization and ­ climate change mitigation—that. National policies have regional and global consequences. Most global public goods depend on the effective management of cross-border consequences and an adequate provision of national and regional public goods. responsible sovereignty takes the long-term interests of the world as a whole into account when formulating national policy regional and global policies provide a context for national policymaking. they are also understandably concerned with preserving national sovereignty. is an attempt to develop a new international security and human rights norm that can address the international community’s failures to prevent and stop genocides. makes decisionmaking more interdependent than ever. The Responsibility to Protect initiative. Responsible sovereignty also requires that states honour agreed universal human rights and obligations towards people residing in their territories and ensure their security and safety. sovereignty is seen not just as a right. such as through pollution or other abuses of the global or regional commons. Most countries accept the necessity of a strong multilateral body to referee the rules of world trade while knowing that regionalism is here to stay. A better strategy is responsible sovereignty—that is. In a highly interconnected world. if designed effectively. At the same time. The rise of the South. Examples include public spending and stimulus policies in the wake of the global financial crisis: coordination by central banks around the world to lower interest rates in concert helped avert further deepening of the worldwide recession. This mismatch between principles and procedures highlights the importance of building capacities into 116 | Human Development Report 2013 . In an increasingly globalized and interconnected world. this is a matter of enlightened self-­ interest: decisions taken at the national level today can affect people in all countries for generations to come. but also as a responsibility. ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity.multilateral disciplines that can be negotiated only at the WTO. examples include protectionist national responses to international economic downturns and the failure to regulate over­ fishing and ocean pollution. Some governments are unable to sufficiently protect the human rights of their citizenry. Countries on their own are less able to defend themselves from the contagion effects of financial crises or the ill effects of global warming. The North and the South must find common ground for meaningful progress on today’s pressing global problems. war crimes. for example. Countries must take into account their respective international responsibilities in providing public goods and avoid undermining the collective welfare and the well-being of other countries. and thus on national institutional capacity and a willingness to cooperate regionally and globally. could greatly enhance global collective welfare.38 Responsible sovereignty While most governments support the principles of multilateralism. taking the long-term interests of the world as a whole into account when formulating national policy. effective national decisionmaking cannot be carried out in isolation from regional and global policies. While a positive step towards establishing guiding principles on global governance in human security. The South. National policies will undermine rather than reinforce and complement each other. accompanied by stronger cross-border links.

for example. investing in developing The rise of the South presents opportunities for innovative new structures for development partnerships and new approaches to development policy.1). An important use for such reserves would be building infrastructure. allocating just 3% of liquid international reserves of the nine G20 countries of the South would increase the share of public investment in these countries 4. the legitimacy of institutions such as the United Nations Security Council is brought into question. equity and guarantees.8–$2. compared with current levels of $0. elimination of solid fuels as the primary source for heating and cooking in the home by 2030. This scenario assumes about 20% improvement in infrastructure by 2050. Infrastructure development banks The rise of the South is also creating new possibilities for financing equitable and sustainable human development. The countries of the South themselves could take greater leadership roles in the global policy dialogue about the most urgent international development needs and about the most effective ways to meet these 21st century challenges. The substantial foreign reserves accumulated by the leading economies of the South could be leveraged for development financing in less developed countries. or about 3% of GDP. or about 6%–8% of GDP. both globally and regionally Chapter 5  Governance and partnerships for a new era | 117 . have proposed a BRICS Development Bank that would draw upon their considerable reserves to finance projects in developing countries. public investment would rise 17.42 New institutions will be more effective if they work in concert with existing regional and global institutions. close to the average level of public investment for all developing countries.43 Allocating a small fraction of the international reserves of the nine G20 countries of the South could provide substantial additional resources for public investment in infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia (figure 5. In fact. Current average public investment in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia is around 7.44 For reserve-holding countries and their sovereign wealth funds.international governance systems to hold governments and political systems accountable to the people they represent. New mechanisms for aid.2). the Russian Federation and South Africa. 40 Like the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. India.8%. Because borrowers need to be concerned about debt sustainability. infrastructure spending in developing countries must reach $1. figure 5. New institutions. A new institution could crowd in the right type of capital through guarantees and other instruments.6%– 52. both globally and regionally. renewable energy production 50% above the base case by 2050 and universal access to mobile telephone and broadband by 2030. trade and technology exchange within regions of the developing world can usefully parallel and complement existing arrangements. Depending on the share of reserves allocated. Chapter 4 presented an accelerated progress scenario that set ambitious targets for raising the Human Development Index (HDI) value in all regions by 2050 through a series of public spending initiatives.3 trillion a year by 2020. universal access to electricity by 2030. for example. Without binding mechanisms for holding states accountable to their citizens.8–$0.1%–11. To meet urgent needs. such a bank could offer a range of instruments. In addition to financing productive projects. Brazil.7% of GDP. filling gaps in funding and investment. But agreement on a principle of responsible and mutually supportive sovereignty will be forthcoming only if the preconditions of global fairness and justice are met.41 One means of enabling and facilitating such investments would be through a development bank for infrastructure and sustainable development. efforts are required to go beyond domestic government borrowing by leveraging other forms of financial assistance. China. That could bolster developing country borrowing to finance economically productive infrastructure.9 trillion a year. including loans. The largest projected increases in HDI value under this scenario are in Sub-Saharan Africa (65%) and South Asia (47%. new mechanisms The rise of the South presents opportunities for innovative new structures for development partnerships and new approaches to development policy.7% of GDP. this flow of resources would also assist with global financial rebalancing.

Source: HDRO calculations based on Pardee Center for International Futures 2013. 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 17. then-president of Tanzania.9 HDI 2010 2050 (projected) Note: See chapter 4 for discussion of the accelerated progress scenario.0 0.47 Institutions from the South.2 Allocating a small fraction of the international reserves of the nine G20 countries of the South could provide substantial additional resources for public investment in infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia Additional resources for public investment ($ billions) countries is financially attractive.Figure 5. the South Commission looked closely at the then-emerging possibilities of greater South–South cooperation in aid.1 0. have considerable potential to influence international governance.8 0. Since many give priority to social over private returns.46 The governance challenge is to operationalize socially responsible investment. define suitable benchmarks and provide sovereign wealth funds easier access to investments with a high human development impact. Figure 5. 118 | Human Development Report 2013 . future prime minister of India. social exclusion and the widening gap between rich and poor.5 0.45 Sovereign wealth funds have long investment horizons and low risk of redemption. enabling them to make longterm investments.8% rise (4. collective development. trade and other aspects of international policymaking. ranging from the BRICS Bank to the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization to the African Union. the largest projected increases in the Human Development Index are in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia Arab States East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 28% 24% 18% 16% 47% 65% 0. For example.6 0.1 Under the accelerated progress scenario.4% of GDP) 35. Its final report in 1990.6% rise (1. Norway has applied global sustainability criteria to its sovereign wealth fund investments through the Norges Bank Investment Management. allowing them to diversify while gaining higher profits without added risks.49 Equally important.7 0.48 It identified climate change as a priority and underscored challenges that stubbornly persist today.4 0. The Challenge to the South.2% rise (2.1% of GDP) 1% 2% 3% Share of reserves allocated Note: Numbers in parentheses are the increase in public investment as a share of GDP.2 0. leaders of the Non-Aligned Movement established the South Commission to explore policy options and areas for cooperation for the countries of the South. The proliferation of regional and other arrangements shows that governments recognize the benefits of. and the economist Manmohan Singh. Source: HDRO calculations based on World Bank (2012a). such as poverty. A new South Commission? In 1987. produced under the leadership of Julius Nyerere. and have a commitment to. was a seminal and prescient analysis. committing to the UN Global Compact Norms and investing in initiatives to reduce deforestation in Guyana. Collective action requires a shared vision. Indonesia and Tanzania.7% of GDP) 52. The premise for this vision cannot be taken for granted. they can also take socially responsible positions.3 0.

The economic links within the South and the mutual benefits of cooperation are likely to provide further incentives to establish such a body. however. Such examples can inspire similar policies in other countries. This Report has summarized some of the most effective drivers of development: a proactive developmental state. with the financial resources and political clout to sway international decisionmaking. Now the countries of the North are looking to those of the South to keep the global economy moving forward. social. aimed at accelerating human development progress for decades to come. One consequence is that rather than looking to the North for inspiration. Businesses from the South number among the world’s largest. from investments in public health and education to conditional cash transfer programmes. agreement on this cannot be taken for granted. The institutions for South–South operation—the Group of 77. The previous. institutions and needs. In many respects. they can examine what has worked. but with understandings of specific national conditions.The world and the South have been thoroughly transformed over the past two decades. In practice. and choose the most appropriate tools. is that even at lower levels of human development. the capacity to tap into global markets and the promotion of social inclusion and broad-based human development. under what circumstances. and cultural bonds among the emerging countries of the developing world. But the situation came into sharper relief after 2008. as China and other emerging economies accumulated vast reserves. The South of the 21st century is led by fast-growing economies with trillions of dollars of foreign exchange reserves and trillions more to invest outside their borders. This was already evident during the early years of the 21st century. and the commitment to South solidarity common to their elders is in many cases now giving way to the pursuit of national interests. that is still the case: average HDI values are substantially lower in many countries of the South. Within each of these there are multiple options but no universal solutions. The North needs the most vigorous countries of the South to sustain demand for exported goods and services. based on recognition of how the diversity of the South can be a force for a new kind of solidarity. could provide a fresh vision. the Nonco­ Aligned Movement and South Summits— were forged in the crucible of decolonization. economic. rather than looking to the North for inspiration. building on the legacy of the first commission but reflecting the strengths and needs of the South today. effectively propping up the US dollar. Here. The possibilities for collective action have never been greater. especially as a number of their own economies and societies are weakened by fierce austerity programmes. which created strong political. if unspoken. That formative experience is increasingly distant from the current generation. The new realities of the 21st century require a fresh look at these issues and at institutions led by the countries of the South themselves. leading position. What has caught the world unawares. rather than seeing a sterile menu of ideological options. A new South Commission. but also as a source of innovation and complex technologies. assumption was that developing countries would steadily approach the standards of human development in industrialized countries (“convergence”) but that the industrialized countries would remain in a strong. developing countries are looking to their peers in the South for appropriate development models. The rise of the South demonstrates that the world has become more diffuse and cross-­ connected. Chapter 3 provided examples of programmes and policies that have worked to improve human development in emerging economies of the South. the countries of the South are now weighty players on the global stage. Conclusions: partners in a new era The rise of the South has to some extent caught the world by surprise. however. which they held as US Treasury bonds. each group of countries needs the other more than ever. following the banking crisis and subsequent economic shocks that pushed some of the richer countries into recession and threatened the survival of one of the world’s major currencies. developing countries are looking to their peers in the South for appropriate development models Chapter 5  Governance and partnerships for a new era | 119 . The South needs the North not only as a mature market.

wherever they live. As ever. Through all this. its conditional cash transfer programmes have sparked interest around the world. such as new legal strictures against early marriages or dowry requirements. it is possible to reduce poverty dramatically in Sub-Saharan Africa—a region where baseline scenarios show a likely future increase in the number of poor people 120 | Human Development Report 2013 . Similarly. Many countries of the South have already demonstrated what can be done. Others may take any number of new institutional forms. As this chapter has argued. but as the case of Mexico illustrates. The countries of the South have thus been using their own ideas and energy to create a new momentum for human development. Individuals function within social institutions that can limit or enhance their development potential. In particular. this Report suggests five broad conclusions. but also because good health. education and social welfare are key to success in a more competitive and dynamic world economy. That is why this Report has also focused on what is needed to ensure that human development proceeds in ways that are both productive and sustainable. not just individual capabilities. Addressing these issues will demand considerable skill and commitment from national governments and civil society. enabling voice and participation. In a complex global political. international organizations and a nascent global civil society feel their way towards new models of mutual understanding and cooperation. Good policymaking also requires greater focus on enhancing social capacities. it will also demand much more fruitful global cooperation as national governments. the most successful countries have demonstrated that innovative and sometimes counterintuitive options can work. Nevertheless.Good policymaking requires greater focus on enhancing social capacities. This includes measures aimed at enhancing equity. Projections presented in chapter 4 reinforce this point. but they have gone only part of the way. For the years ahead. confronting environmental pressures and managing demographic change. There are sufficient global resources to achieve that goal. however. not just individual capabilities What worked in one country might have stood little chance in another. this dynamism may still not yield sustainable outcomes. Some of these will involve refashioning existing institutions to accommodate a new global power balance. More countries are unencumbered by conditionalities often attached to international aid and resource transfers. the aim is to expand the choices and capabilities for everyone. economic and social environment. can open up additional opportunities for individuals to reach their full potential. Policies that change social norms that limited human potential. and the recent rise in commodity prices has reversed the long decline in terms of trade faced by many primary goods producers. Paying parents to take their children to health clinics may seem unnecessary. if they are directed towards that purpose. And there are serious concerns that overexploitation of global resources combined with the effects of climate change could wreck the earth for future generations. the fundamental principles of human development endure. it can work to improve children’s health. push for full employment commitments and innovate towards low-carbon pathways. They show that with strong commitment to human development and prudent macroeconomic policies. Poverty is an injustice that can and should be remedied by determined action. As this Report highlights.50 This provides a cushion of resources that can be managed in ways that enhance national human development by governments committed to avoiding the “resource curse”. these investments should target the poor—­ connecting them to markets and increasing their livelihood opportunities. one consequence of the rise of the South is that most countries now have growing policy and fiscal space to set bold targets—to eliminate poverty. Already there are signs of rising inequality and frustrated expectations that could lead to violent social strife. Rising economic strength in the South must be matched by a full commitment to human development Investments in human development are justified not only on moral grounds. using a mobile phone for banking made eminent sense in Kenya and the Philippines to people who had never had a personal bank account before and often lived nowhere near a bank office.

To harness the full extent of this potential. Building infrastructure would be an important use of such reserves. but more can be done to accelerate and deepen these relationships and ensure inclusiveness Chapter 5  Governance and partnerships for a new era | 121 . Importantly. China. At the same time. while innovators create jobs and develop producer capabilities. Regional alternatives to the IMF. including food. South–South development cooperation and technology transfer hold immense potential to support human development. such as participating in regional and global value chains to facilitate the spread of ideas and technologies. new and innovative institutions may be called for. Less developed countries can learn and benefit from the success of emerging economies in the South The unprecedented accumulation of financial reserves and sovereign wealth funds in the South ($6. Burgeoning South– South trade and investment in particular can lay the basis for shifting manufacturing capacity to other less developed regions and countries. In finance and aid. but more can be done to accelerate and deepen these relationships and ensure inclusiveness. such as the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization and the Latin American Reserve Fund. As wealthy countries have curtailed aid to address domestic issues. Even a small portion of these funds dedicated to human development and poverty eradication could have a large effect. Such production can be adapted to the income levels and tastes of local consumers. have freed up policy space for countries to protect national priorities while also addressing balance-­ of-payments problems and short-term liquidity issues. Expanded The foundations exist for strong regional institutions. and these exports are increasingly skilland technology-intensive. appliances and motor vehicles. Stronger institutions are now needed to facilitate these South– South trade and investment links. These new aid mechanisms also tend to emphasize pragmatism over ideology. New institutions and new partnerships can facilitate regional integration and South–South relationships New institutions and partnerships can help countries share knowledge. Technology transfers from the North require costly adaptation due to differences in absorptive capacity. The foundations exist for strong regional institutions. International production networks provide opportunities to speed up the development process by allowing countries to leap-frog to more sophisticated production nodes while offering the double benefit of protection against the vagaries of foreign exchange fluctuations. Brazil. the sharp drop in the price of capital goods as a result of intense global competition led by China and India could accelerate the creation of manufacturing production capacities in many developing countries. experiences and technology. but technological transfers within the South are more likely to need little adaptation and to involve more-appropriate technologies and products.because population growth outpaces economic growth. the South is already actively establishing regional governance institutions. regional development banks and bilateral aid relationships provide additional resources for development projects. Growing markets in developing countries provide companies in the South an opportunity to mass market innovative and affordable versions of standard products. South–South trade and investment flows can leverage foreign markets in new ways. India. Recent Chinese and Indian joint ventures and startup manufacturing investments in Africa serve as a prelude to a much expanded force that this potential represents. As mentioned. This dynamic has the potential to provide the poor access to consumer goods.7% of GDP using just 3% of international reserves from some of the largest economies in the South. Trade with other developing countries now accounts for a majority of merchandise and manufactures exports from developing countries. for example. Infrastructure development banks. the Russian Federation and South Africa have proposed a development bank to mobilize their considerable reserves to finance projects across developing countries.8 trillion) as well as the North ($3. clothing. public investment in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa could increase to 11. offer new possibilities for development finance.3  trillion) provides an opportunity to accelerate broad-based progress.

Global issues today are increasing in number and urgency. they represent a policy choice. a fair and less unequal world requires space for a multiplicity of voices and a system of public discourse. committed. the United Nations and other international bodies. Yet in many areas. Lowering such tariffs could yield collective gains of an estimated $59 billion for the economies of the South. propelled by interaction with the wider world through trade. diverse experiences are ripe for sharing. Active civil society and social movements. The key elements are there: different endowments provide a basis for expanded exchange. Global discussions of this phenomenon so far have focused almost exclusively on economic growth in the biggest developing countries. international cooperation is necessary and can happen only by voluntary action of many governments. As such. Greater representation for the South and civil society can accelerate progress on major global challenges The rise of the South is leading to a greater diversity of voice on the world stage. both national and transnational. a fair and less unequal world requires space for a multiplicity of voices and a system of public discourse 122 | Human Development Report 2013 . The G20 incorporates their experience. They require a global response.51 A new South Commission for the early 21st century could help bring a fresh vision of how the strength and diversity of the South can be a global force for development solidarity. above all. The spread of movements and increasing platforms for vocalizing key messages and demands challenge governance institutions to adapt more-democratic and more-inclusive principles. from mitigation of climate change and international economic and financial instability to the fight against terrorism and nuclear proliferation. harmonizing regulatory schemes. “Publicness” and “privateness” are in most cases not innate properties of a public good but social constructs. personal and institutional leadership. National governments can step in when there is underprovision at the national level. investing in regional transport infrastructure. travel and telecommunications in ways that were not possible before. the recognition and implementation of win-win strategies can motivate new forms of South–South cooperation. More generally. New guiding principles for international organizations are needed that incorporate the experience of the South. new cross-border partnerships can compete in world markets and. but when global challenges arise. This Report uses a human development lens to cast a wider net and show that the impacts are widespread in terms of the large number of developing countries involved and the intertwining of ever-growing global challenges and possibilities—from environmental sustainability and equity to poverty eradication and the reform of global institutions. progress in determining what is public and what is private will require strong. The rise of the South presents new opportunities for providing global public goods more effectively and for unlocking today’s many stalemated global issues. and lowering tariffs on South–South trade in final products. The rise of the South presents new opportunities for generating a greater supply of public goods A sustainable world requires both better governance and a greater availability of global public goods.South–South trade and investment can reduce vulnerability to economic downturns in the North and provide opportunities to leverage foreign markets in new ways. Given the many pressing challenges. This represents an opportunity to build governance institutions that fully represent all constituencies that would make productive use of this diversity in finding solutions to world problems. Regional trade and investment relationships can also be strengthened by streamlining transit. *    *    * The rise of the South is fundamentally the story of the fast-paced transformation of the developing world and its profound impact on diverse facets of human development. transport and customs procedures. but the countries of the South also need more-equitable representation in the Bretton Woods institutions. inter­ national cooperation continues to be slow— and at times dangerously hesitant. The changes are occurring at unprecedented speed and scale. are using the media to amplify their calls for just and fair governance.

People are sharing ideas and experiences through new communications channels and seeking greater accountability from governments and international institutions alike. economic exchanges are expanding faster ­ “horizontally”—on a South–South basis—than on the traditional North–South axis. The South as a whole is driving global economic growth and societal change for the first time in centuries. In fact. Yet they share important characteristics. The South’s progress is propelled by inter­ connections with developed countries and increasingly with the developing world. but. And they have developed their own domestic policy approaches with increasing autonomy. The South still needs the North.The fast-developing countries chose their own distinct development pathways. from social inequalities to environmental risks. including effective leadership from governments. open engagement with the world economy and innovative social policies addressing domestic human development needs. increasingly. They also face many of the same challenges. the North also needs the South. without the strictures of enforced conditionality or imposed external models. for their own sovereign national reasons. Chapter 5  Governance and partnerships for a new era | 123 .

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6% in the Middle East and North Africa and 2. World Bank 2012a. Dobbs and others 2012. sometimes a positive difference between GNI per capita and HDI rank can emerge when a country has built up its development achievements but its income falls in the short term (as in Zimbabwe). 8 9 10 11 12 Introduction 1 2 3 4 5 6 According to World Bank (2012a). 3. Central African Republic and Gambia. on the one hand. Leigh and Pescatori 2011. A country can reap the benefits of increased productive capacity associated with the lower proportion of dependents. For some countries confronting high debt levels (such as Greece. leaving little fiscal space to postpone fiscal consolidation. These policies run the risk of creating new asset bubbles and exporting inflationary pressures to countries in the South. Estevadeordal. in the European Union. Smith 1776. OECD (2011b) shows that in the context of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Notes | 125 . HDRO calculations based on data on general government expenditure on social protection from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development show that some industrialized countries. say. Japan is not included in the long-term historical comparison between the other Group of Seven economies and Brazil. the trade to GDP ratio is the sum of exports and imports of goods and services divided by total output. pp. By 2012. however. As fertility levels fall in a demographic transition. See Naqvi and Acharya (2012 . the number of children declines while the working-age population increases. World Bank 2012b. who counted people earning $10–$50 a day in purchasing power parity terms as belonging to the middle class. the standard GDP and GNI calculus in Human Development Reports. the solutions implemented (such as fiscal consolidation and easy monetary policies) have been criticized for reaching their limits.445 in 1870 in the United States. In some countries.615) and the Democratic Republic of Congo ($319). Austria. Heilmann 2008. the solutions have caused the economy to contract. 13 HDRO calculations show that 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 countries as disparate as China and the United States have benefited in the long term from government investment in health and education (see chapter 3 for more details). Hamdani 2013. UNDP 2011a. Zuckerberg 2012. Since income is a flow variable and education and health outcomes are stock variables. These disparities are of a similar order of magnitude as the disparity between the HDI values of Belgium (0.72) on the one hand. p. Estimates refer to years between 2002 and 2011. thus accounting for child mortality. 11–12) for more detail. For example. These disparities are of a similar order of magnitude as the disparity between the HDI values of. Uganda’s HDI (0. according to World Bank (2012a).47).9%. illiteracy and income poverty better than the Gini coefficient. Central African Republic’s from 0. not as GDP in purchasing power parity terms) does not make up for the lower consumption contribution of advanced economies on their own. Wilkinson and Pickett (2009). 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 In purchasing power parity terms. As fertility levels continue to decline.456. United Nations 2012a. dependency ratios eventually rise with the increase in retired workers. Sen 2012. Makino and Jung (2011) and extrapolation thereafter.312 to 0. in 1990. obtained from World Bank (2012a). they have pushed short-term interest rates in key money markets close to zero. the subprime crisis spiralled into a sovereign debt crisis. a substantial improvement compared with its peers (and statistically significant at the 95% level). 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Chapter 1 1 This is in nominal terms. Guajardo. Denmark and Norway. United Nations 2012a. it argues that although the share of emerging and developing countries’ consumption (measured as consumption in constant US dollars. The measures used—life expectancy and mean years of schooling—have upper bounds towards which developing countries tend to eventually converge. In addition. 7. Iley and Lewis (2011).Notes Overview 1 2 3 7 Atsmon and others 2012. In purchasing power parity terms.63). the South has held leadership positions at the International Labour Organization.323 to 0.25 a day (in 2005 purchasing power parity terms). while in normal times fiscal consolidation would lower debt to GDP ratios. World Bank 2010a. The demographic dividend is considered a window of opportunity for additional economic growth when the proportion of the working-age population increases.352 and Gambia’s from 0. suggest that there are up to 600 million people in the middle class in the developing G20 countries. for example. Estimates refer to years between 2002 and 2011. Uganda’s HDI had increased to 0. The middle class includes people earning or spending $10–$100 a day in 2005 purchasing power parity terms. IMF 2011b. which takes into account inequality in distribution within and across groups consistently. Given by the ratio of GNI per capita for Seychelles ($22. and in others. Subnational HDI values are not directly comparable with national HDI values because they consist of different indicators and are for different years. it will likely lead to higher debt to GDP ratios in the region in 2013. and Nigeria. Frantz and Taylor (2003). it is large enough to rebalance when combined with US (or European) consumption. There is no upper threshold of convergence for income. See. The current trade ratio is a five-year average from 2006 to 2010. United Nations 2012a. UNCTAD 2010. Proportion of the population living on less than $1. in recent years. under current circumstances. According to Maddison (2010). using car ownership as a proxy for the middle class. the average GDP growth rate in 2009 for high-income members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development was –3. 29) points out that “emerging and developing economies account for about half of global output and two-thirds of global growth in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. HDRO calculations based on BurdSharp and Lewis (2010). compared with 7. and Honduras or Kiribati (0.90).250 in 1700 to $2. In addition to increased voting shares and senior appointments at the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Based on a balanced panel comparison and data from World Bank (2012a). Sen 2007.25 a day poverty line. including Australia.314 to 0. China and India because it did not industrialize until late in the 19th century and did not emerge as a major world economic power until the second half of the 20th century. Italy and Japan). ILO 2012.” Moreover.78) or Ecuador (0. GDP per capita (in international dollars) rose from $1.257 in 1820 to $2. the share is about 46%. the World Trade Organization and the World Intellectual Property Organization.1% in Sub-Saharan Africa. with the exception of Ireland. Senegal or Mauritania (0. Benin’s increased from 0. on the other. Atsmon and others 2012. Throughout the crisis. Based on data between 2005 and 2008 from Kharas. for their secondary effects and for their transitory nature.5% in East Asia and Pacific. lowering the dependency ratio. see also IMF (2011b). about 50% more than previous estimates by Milanovi´ c and Yitzhaki (2002). on the other. it puts more weight on the lower end of the distribution. Keynes 1937. HDRO calculations based on Brookings Institution (2012). Mexico (0. In current US dollars.436. the World Health Organization. UNDP 2009. ILO 2012.330 in 1850 in the United Kingdom and from $1. Holland and Portes (2012) suggest that. increased expenditure on social protection between 2007 and 2010.4% in South Asia. Inequality in the HDI components is measured by the Atkinson inequality index. Chen and Ravallion (2012) using the $1.306) was comparable to that of Benin.439. IMF (2011b. Ali and Dadush (2012). United Nations Enable 2012. Samake and Yang 2011.

Made in the World. HDRO calculations based on UNSD (2012).1% in 2011 and that the share of North–North trade declined from 50. Data refer to the most recent year available between 2005 and 2012.0 in São Paulo and an astonishing 34.4 in London. Many prisoners have been socially excluded all their lives. De Hoyos. World Bank 2012a. there are no official records of their expenditure on armaments. An estimated 50% of prisoners had no physician before coming into custody. the Republic of Korea. Estevadeordal. the provision of health care.14). Bird 1981. Gupta and Wang 2012. Indonesia. 80% of them had never received any drug treatment services (United Kingdom. such as India. Smaller countries tend to engage more in international trade than larger ones such as India. Its category of developing economies. Mexico. Office of the Deputy Prime Minister. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has an ongoing initiative.08) and Suriname (1. the practice continues. Based on 78 countries for which the GII is available. For instance. tourism data are from UNWTO (2011). p. and in at least one instance. South–South FDI does not necessarily displace North–South FDI. Green 2010. The Supreme Court in India recently upheld a government mandate that private schools offer a quarter of their seats to underprivileged children.31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 countries. from less than $20 billion to $150 billion. Sen 2007.3% of overall FDI inflows in 1990–1991 and 8% in 2009–2010. Frantz and Taylor 2003. Since a large number of participants in internal conflicts are nonstate actors. Milanovi´ c 2009. Data on military expenditure refer to expenditure by governments alone and not expenditure by nonstate actors.5 in Johannesburg. Among a range of public services. 141 of 144 economies (for which data are available) increased trade with the South between 1990–1991 and 2010–2011 (the exceptions were the small economies of Dominica. Internet-related data are from World Bank (2012a).08). Relative to the general population. Romero 2012.10).09). the incidence is 2. p. Martinez de la Calle and Székely 2009. Cleland 2002. prisoners are more than 20 times more likely than the general population to have been excluded from 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 school.15). Contrary to popular perception.0 in New York. Branczik 2004. Elson 2002. By similar logic. Rosenfeld.08).18). especially among population groups at high risk of poverty. Ferreira and Menéndez 2007. Papua New Guinea (1. The traditional classification of goods as high or low technology has become less meaningful as trade in parts and components has increased. As indicated in the 1994 Human Development Report (UNDP 1994). South–South FDI is less deterred by differences in institutional quality between host and receiving countries. Martin and Juarez 1995. He uses population-weighted GDP per capita to calculate the mean of countrylevel distributions and obtains the dispersion around each mean from micro surveys. education and acceptable living standards have important direct and indirect redistributive effects. Blanden and others (2005). a measure with the potential to substantially dilute the economic segregation in access to education. Iyer 2009. Global Footprint Network 2011. The ecological footprint is a measure of humanity’s demand on nature that takes into account the quantity of land and water area that a country uses to provide all it takes from nature. real prices of air and maritime transport have not changed much since the 1970s. Because the motives for investing and selecting sectors often differ. 11 12 13 Chapter 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Three-quarters of the 1. Serbia (1. Many prisoners were effectively excluded from access to services. African exports are dominated by commodities whose prices increased in the 2000s. 10 The eight countries are Argentina. World Bank (2008). 8. HDRO calculations based on UNSD (2012). the Dowry Prohibition Act of 1961 makes giving or receiving dowry illegal in India. to be unemployed (13 times). However. Fukuda-Parr 2003. 37. Bourguignon. Georgia (1. Dahal and others 2003. prisoners are much more likely to have been in state care as a child (13 times). 21.11).6 billion people who are multidimensionally poor live in middle-income countries of the South. South Africa and Turkey. not value added in exports and imports. although 70% of those entering the prison had a drug misuse problem. Furthermore. UNDP 1994. Armenia (1. China (1. it can even attract more of it (Bera and Gupta 2009. which includes Hong Kong.4% in 2011. the space for accommodating its buildings and roads. UNDP 1991. Justino 2008. 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Brazil. among other problems. However.9 in Delhi.7 per 100. 24. Messner and Baumer (2001) hypothesized that civic engagement and trust. Montenegro (1. Azerbaijan (1. Bourguignon and Morrisson 2002. China (SAR). Dowry here refers to the payment of cash and gifts by a woman’s family to her husband’s family at the time of the wedding.08). AfDB and others 2011. accounted for 5.5 times) and to be HIV positive (15 times). China (SAR). Singapore and Taiwan Province of China but excludes Commonwealth of Independent States countries. Many countries have dowry systems that involve small or moderate gifts.08). These ratios are based on gross values. p. but in some countries.08). Center for Systemic Peace 2012. After estimating a distribution of income for each country and year. health and education contribute by far the most to reducing inequality. are associated with strong social organization and therefore are indicators of low criminal violence. 92 decreased trade with the North. Based on HDRO calculations. Based on a balanced panel of 127 developing countries. not equality of income—though in a civilized society a basic minimum income should be guaranteed to everyone. whose intranational trade is high. Office of the Deputy Prime Minister. he constructs the world distribution of income by integrating all country distributions. 106. UNDP 2010b. including areas used to produce the resource it consumes. 32. to measure and analyse trade in value added. the Maldives and Tuvalu). 46 United Nations Secretary-General’s 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 High Level Panel on Global Sustainability 2012. Samoa (1. Tourism-related statistics in this paragraph draw on UNWTO (2011). 5. Based on 2011 nominal values adjusted to be comparable to 1996 values. the difference in export earnings per capita between Sub-Saharan Africa and India narrows from $221 to $130.3% in 1980 to 26. p. United Kingdom. exorbitant amounts can be extracted in dowry from the bride’s family during marriages. 126 | Human Development Report 2013 . Wilkinson and Pickett (2012). UNDP 1994. Republic of Korea (1. Removing fuel. Based on United Nations Conference on Trade and Development data. Sala-i-Martin 2006. Anand and Segal 2008. Pinker 2011. In comparison. This figure is for 2010 and includes Hong Kong. the universalism of life claims advocates equality of opportunity. sporadically fuelling both female feticide and dowry deaths of new brides. Aleksynska and Havrylchyk 2011). processed food and electronics. but the decreasing weight to value ratio of international shipments and the growing use of air transport have favoured time-sensitive goods such as fashion. Rockström and others 2009.000 people across all Indian cities and 2. the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (1. Homicide data suffer from reporting errors in the Supplementary Homicide Reports and inconsistency among reporting systems at the country level. in contrast. 18. India. UNDP 2012. The evidence in this paragraph draws on Hamdani (2013). Ivanov and others 2006. Hook and Clark 2012. Furthermore. China. World Bank (2012a).9 in Rio de Janeiro. UNCTAD 2011b. Social Exclusion Unit 2002. the least developed countries saw only about an eightfold increase.8 in Los Angeles. employment of local personnel and lower overhead costs are likely to make South–South FDI more resilient to local crises.08). Solomon Islands (1. to have had a family member convicted of a criminal offence (2. Social Exclusion Unit 2002). When service exports are added to merchandise exports. The average incidence of murder is 2.6% in 1980 to 31. Ivanov and others 2003. India (1. when the trade to output ratio is adjusted to cover only trade with the South. for which globally comparable data are not yet available. core elements of social integration. Drèze and Murthi 1999. metals and ores from aggregate trade statistics means that the share of South–South trade in world trade rose from 6. and the ecosystems for absorbing its waste emissions such as carbon dioxide (Global Footprint Network 2011).

Nigeria. Done 2011. since the global financial crisis. will make China the third largest voteholder (IMF 2010). Kamau. under their prevailing charters. Chibber 1999. For elaboration of the concepts of ownership and capacity for development. See Whalley and Weisbrod (2011) for estimates of the contribution to annual growth rates attributed to inward Chinese FDI in resource-rich countries such as Angola. India. China (SAR). Mexico and the United States.9 in 1981 (UNDP 2008). These regional institutions have tended to draw their policy inspiration from the Bretton Woods institutions. Hansen 2010. McCormick and Pinaud 2009. Niger. The internal armed conflict also meant that national statistics often excluded the northeast of the country. UNDP 2009. Romero and Broder 2012. Notes | 127 . Singapore and countries from Central and Eastern Europe that have joined the European Union. The Brazilian Cooperation Agency was established in 1987. Lopes and Malik (2002). boosting demand for heavy machinery and other capital imports. United Nations 2012b. Based on data for 2005 and 2008 in Kharas. UNDP 1993. A more recent update by Zuckerberg (2012) is that there are now 1 billion active monthly users of Facebook. Keohane and Victor 2010. Kaplinsky. the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa. World Bank 2010a. Kragelund 2013. The estimate of South–South remittances is higher (30%) when flows are a function of migrant stock and lower (18%) when they are a function of migrant stock plus average incomes of host and sending countries. with the largest number of users located in Brazil. which has narrowed the policy space in the two organizations. China has the fifth largest voting share. UNIDO 2009. The United States retains veto power over changes in the capital base. Israel. Its wide-ranging technical assistance initiatives include. Grabel 2013. UNDP 2009. Opportunity costs capture the benefits that can be obtained from alternative uses of these resources. See Felbermayr and Jung (2009) and other citations in Kugler and Rapoport (2011). Democratic Republic of Congo. China now accounts for a third of the world furniture market. Chinese infrastructure companies in Africa are. Such success can come at a net welfare cost to the economy and fail the “Bastable” test. which requires the discounted future benefits to compensate for short-term costs of protection. Serra and Stiglitz 2008. According to Hiemstra-van der Horst (2011). World Bank 2012a. Indonesia. 1996. socialbakers. India and the Republic of Korea (Sobhan 2013). if modest. three times as important for consumers in Egypt than in the United Kingdom or the United States. Abe 2006. A country is said to have comparative advantage in an economic activity if it can undertake that activity at a lower opportunity cost than another country can.66 to 0. United Nations 2012b. Rodrik (2004) emphasized that no short list of evident policy reforms can be applied to yield growth in developing countries. IMF 2011a. Akoten and Otsuka 2009. Vos 2010. established in 2000 (Kragelund 2013). 9. Whalley and Weisbrod 2011. Terheggen and Tijaja 2011. among others. it would need to reconstitute its ownership structure by assigning much larger contributions and voting rights to countries such as China. for instance. Succeeding in world markets is just one criterion (“Mill” test) for justifying government support. if implemented. See Harrison and Rodriguez-Clare (2010) for single-industry. These HDRO calculations are based on the bilateral migration matrix in World Bank (2010a). Bräutigam 2009. Pritchett and Rodrik 2005. surveys found that positive product recommendations from friends and family were. but an agreement reached in 2010 by the Board of Governors. Kaplinsky and Morris (2009). World Bank 2010c. See Kamau. the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development. the Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development. UNCTAD 2003. UNDP 1996. According to United Nations (2012b). Zuzana and Ndikumana forthcoming. The labour force consists of employed people and unemployed people actively seeking employment. HDRO calculation based on data for 144 countries from World Bank (2012a) and ITU (2012).com 2012. Rodrik 2012. broadband connectivity of African health and education institutions with centres in India and bringing some 1. Arrighi (2007) argues that selfregulating markets are not the means to development and that governments must play a leading role in organizing market exchange and divisions of labour. World Bank 2010d. See Jacob (2012). Akyuz (2012) argues that large countries need to change course. South–South aid amounted to $15. Bremmer 2012. Ranis and Stewart 2005. REN21 2012. though it is now formalized in the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation. HDRO calculations based on Brookings Institution (2012). more instances of industrial policy satisfy the Mill test than the Bastable test. But identifying rapid improvers by calculating simple percentage improvement on the HDI provides a bias towards countries with low HDI values. As explained in World Bank (2006). See Das (2000) and DeLong (2004). ICTSD 2011. estimates of South–South remittances depend on which explanatory variable is used to apportion the aggregate remittance received by each country among the destination countries of its migrant nationals. These points draw on Dobbs and others (2012). When the sample excludes developed countries. Leape 2012. Foley and Kerr 2011. Bräutigam 2009. see Fukuda-Parr. the Saudi Fund for Development and the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development. Grabel 2013. Rodrik 2005. for example. Pasha and Palanivel 2004. Rodrik and Velasco 2005. Excluded from this list are all developed economies in 1990 as well as Hong Kong. the Asian Development Bank were to be reconstructed as a fully Asian entity that retained the flexibility to establish its own policy space. Samake and Yang 2011. Hazard and others 2009. Sudan and Zambia. United Nations 2012b. Moyo 2012.3 billion—about 10% of total aid flows (UNDESA 2010). 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 Jenkins and Barbosa 2012. Makino and Jung (2011) and extrapolated for later years.4 billion in 1990–2000 to $9 billion in 2001–2011.600 young Africans to study in India each year (United Nations 2012b). For example. If. development assistance programmes to Africa. In 2008. McCormick and Pinaud (2009) for the Kenyan case. According to Harrison and Rodriguez-Clare (2010). Hausmann. Developing countries benefited unusually in the 2000s from the unsustainable consumption patterns in advanced economies. Average FDI inflow into these six countries nearly quadrupled from $2. Osmani 2005. 2 One caveat is that the identification of rapid improvers on the HDI through this method is biased towards countries with high HDI values. the correlation coefficient remains statistically significant but drops from 0. Neither the Asian Development Bank nor the Inter-American Development 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 Bank. is empowered to modify their ownership structure in any substantial way. Between 1996 and 2005 Embraer delivered 710 regional jets around the world (Baer 2008). Davies 2011. 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Chapter 3 Life expectancy. See The Economist (2011a) and works cited therein. according to UNCTAD (2011a). had nearly doubled from 35 years in 1949 to 67. Hausmann.48. The upper limit of 45% is obtained when Saudi Arabia is counted as a developing country. p.25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 Blinder 2006. This gives a balanced panel of 96 countries between 1990 and 2012. developing countries have relied more on domestic demand. Kaplinsky 2008. for example. they were the Islamic Development Bank. Bradsher 2010. India’s Technical and Economic Cooperation Programme was launched in 1964. Jones and Kierzkowski 2001. China’s cooperation with Africa has an even longer history. India Ministry of Finance 2012. Li 2010. Neither 1 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 method is completely satisfactory (Ranis and Stewart 2005). Dobbs and others 2012. cross-industry and cross-country evidence on infant industry protection and other forms of industrial policy. Mwase and Yang 2012. United Nations 2012b. Fu 2008. for example. See Commission on Growth and Development (2008). See Rodrik (2006) and IMF (2011b). Ratha and Shaw 2007. The larger developing countries have had long-standing. Developing countries could gain an estimated $59 billion from lowering South–South tariffs to North–South levels (OECD 2010a). Sonobe.

World Bank 2010b. China (excluding Hong Kong. For faster economic growth. The figures for Thailand and Brazil in this paragraph draw on Fine and others (2012). Chuhan-Pole and Angwafo 2011. Subramanian and Roy 2001. they find that for a one standard deviation decrease in infant mortality rate. Edwards (1998) and Frankel and Romer (1999). with the termination of quotas that governed world trade in textiles and clothing and the reduction of EU sugar protocol prices.9 percentage points. as well as the share of students who perform at very high levels. Islam (2002) discussed in Khan (2005). Sharma 2012. UNCTAD 2006. Similarly. or the infant mortality rate. 96 Foster and Mijumbi 2002. Bloom. Commission on Growth and Development 2008.2% of global FDI inflows (UNCTAD 2011a). General Motors. it had dropped to 40% (Osmani and others 2006). Unfortunately. See also Hori (2011). Wacziarg and Welch 2008. Khan 2005. data and methodological weaknesses inherent in most cross-country regressions were ignored. Inequalities across racial. 105 Ravallion 2009. 104 Kanbur 2004. over the short term. Athukorala and Waglé 2011. 93 Rodrik 1998. 1 percentage point higher annually over the following 40 year period. Agosin 1997. Chapter 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 The distinction between equity and equality is linked to the difference between what can be observed and what cannot be. NEAC 2010. the evaluation of whether a society is equitable can only be approximated based on the degree of prevailing inequality. Foreign firms are noticing the strengthening of competencies in Thailand despite political instability in recent years. bonded manufacturing warehouses. Mauritius sought to diversify more into light manufacturing and services such as offshore banking and ICT (Zafar 2011). Hwang and Rodrik 2007). Ravallion 2009. Between 1980 and 2000. As Arrighi (2007) argues. Ofosu-Asare 2011. 95 Ssewanyana. 91 Stern 2003. Khan 2005. In 2010. 101 Tangcharoensathien and others 2011. In the 2000s. China [SAR]) attracted an average of 7. Cammett 2007. Hanushek and others (2008) measured the share of students in each country who reach a threshold of basic competency in mathematics and science. followed by the Multi-Fibre Arrangement between 1974 and 1994 and the World Trade Organization Agreement on Textiles and Clothing until 2004. In particular. which are not observable. This indicator is more commonly reported as deaths per 1. new investment plans were announced by Ford. Rodrik 2011. See Athukorala (2011) for a detailed study of Penang’s rise as an export hub. Mauritius embraced global markets early in the 1970s by fully using trade preferences and quotas. Agosin 1997. accessing world markets alone is not enough: the sophistication of exports matters equally. a closing wage gap between skilled and unskilled workers and conditional cash transfers (see López-Calva and Lustig 2010). Kabeer and Mahmud 2004. This distorted world trade but benefited such countries as Bangladesh and Mauritius in their efforts to diversify into manufacturing. 92 Cornia 2004. 106 Glewwe and Kassouf 2008. Based on mirrored trade data from the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database. by 2000. 98 Essama-Nssah 2011. 103 Frenk.000 live births. Hussain and Stern 2006. Ahluwalia 2002. Winters 2004. export promotion measures were also used to further industrial development. Taylor. Celasun 1994. Canning and Sevilla (2007) found that a one year increase in a population’s life expectancy contributes to a 4% increase in output. UNDESA 2007. AfDB and others 2012. privatization of customs administration and direct export subsidies. Similar positive effects are also associated with improvements in reproductive health. Cochrane (1979). Malik 2006. Population Reference Bureau 2000. 28 Fine and others (2012). with new investors such as BMW and Tata also expected to join. while a one standard deviation increase in secondary enrolment rate over a decade increases growth 1. The headcount poverty rate fell from 52% in 1983–1984 to 50% in 1991–1992. the steps taken in China’s reforms included gradualism. However. p. the use of the market as an instrument of governance. China consolidated its industrial base without facing the constraints imposed by the international rules of the World Trade Organization (which it joined in 2001). nontariff barriers and import-restricting licences until the mid-1990s. Radelet. Lautier 2008. Suri and others 2011. Howell 2004. whose clas- 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 sification of Africa includes North Africa as well as Sub-Saharan Africa. notably to 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 export sugar and clothing. tax breaks. Rodrik 2011. they found that a country whose test score performance was 0. 94 Stern 2003. Chuhan-Pole and Angwafo 2011. Rodrik 2001. Newman and Kelly 1976.7 percentage point increase in growth. 100 Tsounta 2009. Rodrik 2004. In addition to import protection. Mazda and Toyota. World Bank 2011a. a one standard deviation increase in life expectancy over a decade implies a 2. on average. On average. cross-country results indicate only average effects. Analysis is limited to countries that reported data for apparel exports in each year. education does not necessarily immediately affect reproductive behaviour.37 percentage point. Malik 2012. The case for the use of in-depth country-specific case studies to understand and evaluate policy regimes is best articulated by Bhagwati and Srinivasan (2001). 22). masking differences in individual country responses. Hanushek and others (2008) found that across the 50 countries they studied. See Rodriguez and Rodrik (2001) for a critique of four influential works in this vein: Dollar (1992). World trade in apparel and textiles was governed by quotas for more than 40 years. OECD 2007. Between 2008 and 2010. for which constant upgrading with the aid of foreign knowhow is key (see Hausmann. 102 UNESCAP 2011. they were replaced by tariffs.27 UNDP 1993. 1996. Serbessa (2002). 128 | Human Development Report 2013 . Rodrik 2001. Kabananukye and others 2004. Matovu and Twimukye 2011. Nielsen and Spenceley 2011. Commission on Growth and Development (2008. See Baldwin (2004) and references therein to notable country case studies. While the state monopolies were abolished early. making capitalists compete among themselves. To address this question. ethnic and religious groups are particularly likely to cause political violence and tend to be extremely persistent unless confronted by comprehensive policies (Stewart 2013). Ahluwalia 2002. each additional year of average schooling in a country increased the average 40 year growth rate of GDP about 0. beginning in the 1960s 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 with the Short Term and Long Term Arrangements Regarding International Trade in Cotton Textiles. 14. In a study of 97 countries. 99 Sivananthiran and Venkata Ratnam 2005. Bloom and others (2009).2 percentage point increase in economic growth. Gómez-Dantés and Knaul 2009. These included subsidized credit. Bloom and others (2009) found that higher fertility is associated with lower labour force participation of women during their fertile years. Ayadi and others 2005. export processing zones. Cleland 2002. the initial reforms occurring in agriculture and then moving to industry and foreign trade. China can be viewed as a case that shows the usefulness of a gradual approach. Diamond. They note that even if the theoretical. Sachs and Lee 1997. Equity is associated with equal opportunities. Subramanian and Roy 2001. Psacharopoulos and Tzannatos (1992). over a decade there would be a 2. duty drawbacks. The MultiFibre Arrangement in particular forced many successful exporting economies (especially from East Asia) to shift investment to countries less restrained by bilateral quotas. Martin and Juarez (1995) argue that in some cases. Clapp 1995. Sachs and Warner (1995). each additional child reduces female labour force participation 5–10 percentage points for women ages 20–44.5 standard deviation higher than another country during the 1960s had a growth rate that was. p. World Bank 2012a. This beneficial trend in Latin America is driven by declining labour income inequality. as only outcomes can be observed and measured. 97 Bertrand and Mullainathan 2003. Kaminski and Ng 2006. Newby and Varle 1999. products belonging to Standard International Trade Classification (Revision 3) Division 84 were classified as apparel exports. Fine and others 2012.

Becker. ILO 2012. With fewer children to support. The proportion of the population in each five-year cohort changes with trends in fertility. The previous section discussed the role of migration on demographic trends. National governments. financial flows. Huntington (1968). secondary education or tertiary education. For developed countries. And these attainments can be differentiated by gender. Older adults (ages 65 and older) require health care and retirement income. 50% lower secondary education by 2030 and 90% by 2030. LaFraniere 2011. Jenkins and Wallace (1996). Tejada 2012. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction defines resilience as “the ability of a system. Galor 2006. absorb. are unable to produce sufficient quantities of global public goods. This is called trade diversion. Dissatisfaction is highest in Central and Eastern Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa. another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force” to come into effect from 2020. Daniell and Vervaeck 2012. and 60% tertiary education by 2050. UNDP 1995. See UNDP (2011a) for more detail.1). Between now and 2050. and Dalton. down from 12% in 2010.000 live birth per year. the share of the population with secondary or tertiary education will rise to either 50% or 64% depending on the scenario. WTO n. (Broder 2012. This suggests that important discussions about the retirement age will take place in many countries where the population is ageing quickly. In a world where trade. 175. FitzGerald. See Campante and Chor (2012). was extended until 2020. At the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 18th Conference of the Parties in Doha in December 2012.d. this window will close in a matter of decades. community or society exposed to hazards to resist. who find a strong positive correlation between education levels and protest involvement across a wide range of developed and developing countries. As a result. Harvey 2012) Heller 2013. In SubSaharan Africa. but Guangdong has more than three times the carbon productivity of Liaoning (UNDP 2010c). See The Economist (2012b) for a discussion of the main results of the Bloom and others (2012) study. the share of the global population older than age 15 that is uneducated is projected to fall to either 3% or 8% depending on the scenario. international migration is unlikely to ease the economic impacts of an ageing population because the volume of migration needed is much larger than is politically feasible. See Krugman (1991). as well as markets. Minsat and Pineda [2013] for a detailed analysis of demographic trends based on projections by Lutz and KC 2013.72 for the wealthiest 20%. Young people (ages 0–14) require investments in health and education. Van Sickle and Weldon (2010). Canning and Sevilla 2003). Bland 2012. Chapter 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 The Doha round for trade negotiations at the World Trade Organization have been at an impasse since 2008 (Castle and Landler 2008. Bloom and others 2012. the Kyoto Protocol. the main legally binding global agreement on climate change. regional arrangements can help empower poorer regions in their negotiations with richer ones. sex and 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 educational attainment. For example.) But countries can reap these dividends only if they provide productive employment for the large number of new entrants to the labour force. for example. ILO 2012. if the current age of retirement is unchanged. UNDESA 2007. The International Labour Organization constructed the index using Gallup survey data. the majority of people in nearly all regions of the world are not satisfied with the availability of quality jobs. Lutz and KC 2013. in 2015.7 million for France to more than 10 million each for Japan and the United States. This analysis uses a dataset that disaggregates each country’s population by age. the ratio is 0. acting on their own. UNDP 2011a. Lowering of tariff barriers that leads to more trade is called trade creation. According to International Labour Organization estimates based on Gallup data.07 for the poorest 20% of households but 0. Westaway 2012. Bloom and others 2012. multilateral cooperation for the provision of global public goods becomes crucial for human development (Kaul 2013). Hausmann and Székely (2001) found that the demographic transition in Latin America accentuated existing inequality trends. See Krugman (1991). Gooch 2012. See Pardee Center for International Futures (2013). who find an association between education and protest involvement. Global public goods are those that have cross-border consequences. Bertrand and Bar-Yam 2011. Giroux (2008) found that although fertility differentials associated with education have remained relatively stable in Sub-Saharan African countries as national fertility has fallen. IPCC 2012. the youth dependency ratio is 1. In scenario III of the study. inequality has increased. here the role of migration is more comprehensive. economic growth accelerates. Canning and Sevilla 2003). Stewart and Venugopal 2006. Countries reiterated that they are determined to adopt. A scenario of education level distribution where universal primary education is complemented by broadbased secondary education brings the highest annual economic growth rates for a typical low HDI country with a large share of young people (IIASA 2008). Amartya Sen makes this distinction: unfair exclusion means that some people are kept out or left out. HDRO calculations based on Lutz and KC (2013). The Food and Agriculture Organization food price index topped 180 in 2008. followed by the Middle East and North Africa. p. any agreement on the structure of the new protocol and financing mechanisms was left until next year. In many countries. mortality and migration. Campante and Chor 2012. each five-year cohort’s population share can be described as having no education. Hook 2012. parents invest more in their children’s education (Becker. Unlike mean years of schooling. Polanyi 1944. and women increasingly participate in the formal labour market (Bloom and others 2009). A country’s age structure thus alters its challenges and opportunities. with faster and earlier demographic shifts among the wealthiest population groups widening the gap between the rich and the poor. They show that changes in the education composition of the population have shaped 47 48 49 50 recent variations in reproductive inequality in the region. Each age group in a population faces different needs and behaves differently.91 for the poorest households and 0. World Bank 2011c. Murphy and Tamura 1990. who argues further that the net effect on world efficiency is unlikely to be negative Notes | 129 . However. A low dependency ratio can generate a demographic dividend. up from 44% in 2010 (see figure 4. environmental resources and pollution increasingly transcend national borders. given the low demand for spending from dependents. Canning and Sevilla 2003. Governing this scenario are several key targets: near universal (99%) primary education by 2015. health and income attainments have been reversed during this period in some countries. yielding what has been called “the demographic dividend” (Bloom. This approach is consistent with that of the Millennium Development Goals and the Education for All initiative. In Latin America. Lagi. since it is fully integrated into a model in which demographic trends are just one part of several modules used in these projections exercise.57 for the wealthiest. including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions” (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction 2009). and collective intergovernmental action is needed. education and income attainments in 78 countries over 1980–2011. accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner.8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 which is 61. Murphy and Tamura 1990. Bloom and others 2009. Based on health.). save more for their retirement (Bloom. unjust inclusion means that some people are included on deeply unfavourable terms (APRI 2003). the migration needed to halt the expected increase in the ratio of the elderly over 1995–2050 ranges from an average annual net inflow of 1.7 deaths per 1. Working-age adults (ages 15–64) require jobs and financial infrastructure to support production and savings. Campante and Chor 2012. under varying assumptions. (See Abdurazakov. primary education. working-age and elderly populations will thus also change over time. ILO 2012. The proportion of the young. Galor 2006). Thus. a new “protocol. Guangdong Province and Liaoning Province have similar HDI 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 values. Wines and LaFraniere 2011. See.1 million people for the United Kingdom and 1. While bilateral arrangements can sometimes disadvantage the weaker partner. since the increase in the labour force can spur economic growth and greater investment. cited in Campante and Chor (2012). Bloom.

See United Nations Security Council (2011). Mwase and Yang 2012. Romani and Stern 2012. Chorev 2012. as developed by the government of Brazil. Grabel 2013. British political theorist Andrew Dobson developed the idea of an “ecological citizenship”. Glennie 2011.7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 because trading blocs consist of geographical neighbours. 24 25 26 27 28 29 the Russian Federation and South Africa announced contributions of $75 billion towards International Monetary Fund resources. Reserve Bank of India 2012. The International Organization for Migration. Bhattacharya. generating a greater return on investment than they could at home (Harding 2012). General Assembly addresses by heads of government Sept. Public-private partnerships and community-level initiatives can also help broaden the scope and impact of sovereign wealth fund investments. among others. China. has the broadest mandate for migration issues of any international institution. Burawoy 2003. Samama and Stiglitz 2011. Heller 2013. The money was also given in anticipation that “all the reforms agreed upon in 2010 will be fully implemented in a timely manner. HDRO calculations based on World Bank (2012a) data on average spending for each country in the region between 2005 and 2010. Thinking ecologically implies a broad notion of citizenship. Given that international reserves play a prominent 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 role in monetary and exchange rate policy. Baldwin 2006. See Hamdani (2013) and South Commission (1990). it has become an increasingly prominent forum for discussions on international migration.un. Leape 2012. The same principle applies to investment by emerging economies. For a useful summary see also Lamberte and Morgan (2012). OECD 2010a. Ecological citizenship goes beyond individual responsibility. which contains the concept note on responsibility while protecting. It found that the South is not well organized at the global level and has been unable to effectively mobilize its combined expertise. 130 | Human Development Report 2013 . Bhattacharya. This takes many forms—­ restrictive nongovernmental organization laws. The report made practical suggestions to be carried out by concerned policymakers. The International Center for Non-profit Law and CIVICUS have consistently been reporting on and analyzing this situation worldwide. Based on HDRO calculations using World Bank (2012a) data on international reserves. Hansen 2010. not a part of the UN system.1 (UN News Service www. registration requirements and the like—and is justified by governments on grounds such as national security. Bolton. Initially envisaged with a very broad mission. Ocampo 2010. 25-Oct. Some have proposed a global infrastructure initiative whereby rich countries channel investment funds to developing countries. albeit not through its sovereign wealth fund. Brazil. The Bank of the South was founded in 2007 by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and officially launched in 2009. by the time of its launch in 2009. At the Group of 20 Summit in Los Cabos in 2012. following years of informal discussion among leaders from the South. India Ministry of External Affairs 2012. Betts and others 2013. including a comprehensive reform of voting power and reform of quota shares” (Chowla 2012). Grabel 2013. accounting failures by nongovernmental organizations. They can be called upon only after existing resources are substantially used. With 146 member states. Romani and Stern 2012. the losses from trade diversion are small. Romero and Broder 2012. coordination and control. Richards and Tyldesley 2011. These ideas draw on Baldwin (2007). Multilateralizing regionalism also requires harmonizing a diverse array of trade regulations (such as varying rules of origin for determining local content) and expanding regional agreements to include as many developing country partners as possible. The video received more than 100 million views and is one of the most “viral” videos of all time. G8 2005. Ocampo and Titelman 2009. The South Commission was formally established in 1987. UNDP 2009. Chandhoke 2009. Its precise functions and goals are still being debated among member countries. The report of the South Commission (1990) emphasized that developing countries have many problems and much experience in common. Castells 2003. it may be too ambitious to expect a larger proportion of the reserves to be allocated for other purposes. UNDP 2011a. foreign currency and taxation regulations. Since these countries would be natural trading partners even without special arrangements. one that includes the goal of reducing ecologic footprints. King. experience and bargaining power. OECD 2010a. India. Grabel 2013. Han 2012. since 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 ecological thinking views citizens as products of and influences on their communities (and their ecosystems) (Revkin 2012). Heller 2013. OECD 2011c. Leape 2012. while gains from trade creation are large. its mandate had been narrowed to project finance in the South American region (Chin 2010). These funds come with several conditions. Norway has also offered $1 billion to Brazil for its deforestation efforts.org/news/).

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2012 Statistical tables Human development indices 1 Human Development Index and its components 2 Human Development Index trends.Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World Statistical annex Readers guide Key to HDI countries and ranks. 1980–2012 3 Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index Experimental indices 4 Gender Inequality Index 5 Multidimensional Poverty Index Human development indicators 6 Command over resources 162 7 Health166 8 Education170 9 Social integration 10 International trade flows of goods and services 11 International capital flows and migration 12 Innovation and technology 14 Population trends 174 178 182 186 194 156 160 144 148 152 140 143 144 13 Environment190 Regions 198 Statistical references Technical appendix: explanatory note for projections exercise 199 200 Statistical annex | 139 .

For the HDI.org/en/statistics. When HDRO becomes aware of discrepancies. are available online at http://hdr. Definitions of indicators and sources for original data components are given at the end of each table. trends using consistent data ­ calculated at five-year intervals for 1980–2012 are presented in table 2. with full source details in Statistical references. The composition of each region is presented in Regions. Data for Sudan include South Sudan unless otherwise noted.0 Nil or negligible — Not applicable Discrepancies between national and international estimates National and international data estimates can vary because international agencies harmonize national data for comparability across countries.. Regional groupings Regional groupings are based on United Nations Development Programme regional classification. resources and expertise to collect national data on specific indicators. Comparisons over time and across editions of the Report Because national and international data agencies continually improve their data series. Moene and Willumsen 2011). along with the technical notes on the calculation of composite indicators and additional sources of information. as in 2005/2012. All indicators. Not available 0 or 0. high.undp. indicates average for the period defined. as in 2005–2012. A slash between years. indicates that the data are the most recent year available in the period specified. Macao Special Administrative Region of China or Taiwan Province of China. unless otherwise noted. the data—­ including the HDI values and ranks—­ presented in this Report are not comparable to those published in earlier editions. Country groupings and aggregates Several weighted aggregates are presented in the tables. these are brought to the attention of national and international data authorities. The following symbols are used in the tables: . an aggregate is shown only when data are available for at least half the countries and represent at least two-thirds of the available population in that classification. produce an estimate of missing data or do not incorporate the most recent national data. Aggregates for each classification represent only the countries for which data are available. Growth rates are usually average annual rates of growth between the first and last years of the period shown.Readers guide The 14 statistical tables provide an overview of key aspects of human development. Symbols A dash between two years. In general. The tables include composite indices estimated by the Human Development Report Office (HDRO) using data available to the HDRO on 15 October 2012. For this reason countries with the same HDI value at the third decimal place are listed with tied ranks. Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States are defined according to UN classifications. Country notes Data for China do not include Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China. Sources and definitions The HDRO uses data from international data agencies with the mandate. unless otherwise noted. Human development classification HDI classifications are relative—based on quartiles of HDI distribution across the 187 countries denoted as very high. Robustness and reliability analysis has shown that for most countries the HDI is not statistically significant at the third decimal place (see Aguna and Kovacevic 2011 and Høyland. Countries and territories are ranked by their 2012 HDI value. medium (each with 47 countries) and low (with 46 countries). 140 | Human Development Report 2013 .

The IHDI can be interpreted as the actual level of human development (accounting for inequality). International Energy Agency. is presented in table 5. expressed as a percentage. The nonincome HDI is calculated to provide an additional means of cross-­ country comparison and to order countries by achievements in the nonincome dimensions. The difference between rank by gross national income and HDI indicates whether a country is efficiently using its income for advancement in the two nonincome HDI dimensions. These indicators can be used to examine priorities in public spending and the pattern of expenditure and how it relates to human development outcomes. The consumer price index is presented as a measure of inflation.Statistical acknowledgements The Report’s composite indices and other statistical resources draw on a wide variety of the most respected international data providers in their specialized fields. Table 3 presents the IHDI. United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. A time series of HDI values based on data available in 2012. International Union for Conservation of Nature. World Health Organization. and World Intellectual Property Organization. which goes beyond a country’s average achievements in health. World Bank. The difference between the HDI and IHDI. Countries are presented alphabetically in two groups according to the year of the survey used to estimate the MPI. empowerment and the labour market. The contributions of deprivations in each dimension to overall poverty are included to provide a comprehensive picture of people living in poverty. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. Inter-Parliamentary Union. Table 4 presents the Gender Inequality Index. The difference in ranking by the HDI and the IHDI indicates that taking inequality into account would either lower a country’s rank (negative value) or improve it (positive). youth and adults as well as two indicators of health care quality are presented Readers guide | 141 . During economic uncertainty or recession. is presented in table 2 . Statistical tables The first five tables contain the composite human development indices and their components. gross fixed capital formation and the consumer price index with public spending indicators. International Monetary Fund. Food and Agricultural Organization. education and income to show how the achievements are distributed among residents by discounting the value of each dimension according to its level of inequality. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. health and living standards. Gallup. The GII is designed to provide empirical foundations for policy analysis and advocacy efforts. Indicators of public spending are given for two points in time to allow for analysis of change in spending. the Gender Inequality Index (GII) and the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)—have been presented since the 2010 Human Development Report. Eurostat. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. educational attainment and income are presented in table 1. HDI values along with values of the four component indicators on life expectancy. ICF Macro. The change in HDI rank over the last five years and between 2011 and 2012 as well as the average annual HDI growth rate across four time periods allow for easy assessment of the direction and speed of HDI changes. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. United Nations World Tourism Organization. the Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI). Several indicators on the health of children. Table 6 combines macroeconomic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP). thus using the most recent revision of historical data and methodology. Four composite human development indices—the Human Development Index (HDI). The MPI gives both the incidence of nonincome multidimensional poverty (a headcount of those in multidimensional poverty) and its intensity (the relative number of deprivations people experience at the same time). The GII and the MPI remain experimental indices. an experimental measure designed to capture the overlapping deprivations that people face in education. Countries are ranked according to HDI value. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. gross fixed capital formation typically declines. We are particularly grateful to the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Department of Energy. The Multidimensional Poverty Index. an experimental composite measure of inequality in achievement between women and men in three dimensions: reproductive health. while the HDI is the potential human development that could be obtained if achievements were distributed equally among residents. International Telecommunication Union. United Nations Office on Drug and Crime. United Nations Educational. The international educational database maintained by Robert Barro (Harvard University) and Jong-Wha Lee (Korea University) is another invaluable source for the calculation of the Report’s indices. United Nations Children’s Fund. A high value indicates high inequality between women and men. It is the only means for comparing HDI values for 2012 with those for past years. International Labour Organization. the remaining nine tables present a broader set of indicators related to human development. Luxembourg Income Study. Scientific and Cultural Organization Institute for Statistics. defines the loss in potential human development due to inequality.

It shows the proportion of fossil fuels and renewable energy sources in the energy supply. Complementary objective indicators and perception-based indicators allow for a more nuanced picture of social integration. Table 9’s data on social integration indicate whether a society is inclusive and integrated. Life. which have important policy implications for the growth of world trade and for economic development in countries of the South. In particular. mathematics and science. including average test scores (and deviations from the average scores) in reading. Statistics on median age of the population. The education quality indicators are based on standardized tests assigned to 15-year-old students by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development–managed Programme on International Student Assessment using the 2009 dataset for 63 UN Member States. The extent to which a country is integrated into the global economy is reflected in table 10. presents three ways of looking at carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emissions data and shows important measures for ecosystems and natural resources. A distinction between trade in final goods and trade in parts and components is made to capture the phenomenon of global value added and production sharing.in table 7. Deviations from the natural sex ratio at birth have implications for population replacement levels and indicate gender bias and potential future social and economic problems. Table 13 sheds light on environmental sustainability. Two additional indicators of education quality. Table 12 captures the importance of investment in research and development to advancing human development and building country capacities to effectively adopt and use technologies. while trust in people and government. overall inequality. give insight into people’s satisfaction with broader society. and trust and community satisfaction. human safety. Increasing foreign investment is one measure of growing economic globalization. indicators show the extent of equal rights and opportunities for employment. freedom and job satisfaction focus on individuals’ views of their personal conditions. Migration is an opportunity for work and to send funds back home while expanding the labour force in recipient countries. Human mobility in all forms is also a potential factor in cross-cultural understanding. The table also presents indicators on the direct human impacts of changes to the physical environment. primary education teachers trained to teach and a perception-based indicator of satisfaction with the quality of education. Indicators on two aspects of globalization: capital flows and human mobility are shown in table  11. complement the testbased quality indicators. Table 8 comprises standard education indicators along with indicators on education quality. along with community satisfaction. dependency ratios and total fertility rates can be compared to assess the burden on the labour force and the ability of societies to sustain themselves. 142 | Human Development Report 2013 . Major population indicators needed to understand current population conditions and the direction of changes are presented in table 14.

United Republic of The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 116 152 78 Tajikistan125 Thailand103 Timor-Leste134 Togo159 Tonga95 Trinidad and Tobago 67 Tunisia94 Turkey90 Turkmenistan102 Uganda161 Ukraine78 United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United States 41 26 3 Chad184 Chile40 China101 Colombia91 Comoros169 Congo142 Congo. Islamic Republic of 76 Iraq131 Ireland7 Israel16 Italy25 Jamaica85 Japan10 Jordan100 Kazakhstan69 Kenya145 Kiribati121 Korea. Republic of 117 113 Norway1 Oman84 Pakistan146 Palau52 Palestine. Bolivarian Republic of Viet Nam 71 127 Yemen160 Zambia163 Zimbabwe172 Key to HDI countries and ranks. Plurinational State of Bosnia and Herzegovina 108 81 Georgia72 Germany5 Ghana135 Greece29 Grenada63 Guatemala133 Guinea178 Guinea-Bissau176 Guyana118 Haiti161 Honduras120 Hong Kong.Key to HDI countries and ranks. 2012 Afghanistan175 Albania70 Algeria93 Andorra33 Angola148 Antigua and Barbuda 67 Argentina45 Armenia87 Australia2 Austria18 Azerbaijan82 Bahamas49 Bahrain48 Bangladesh146 Barbados38 Belarus50 Belgium17 Belize96 Benin166 Bhutan140 Bolivia. China (SAR) 13 Hungary37 Iceland13 India136 Indonesia121 Iran. Federated States of Moldova. Democratic Republic of the Costa Rica Côte d’Ivoire 186 62 168 Croatia47 Cuba59 Cyprus31 Czech Republic 28 Denmark15 Djibouti164 Dominica72 Dominican Republic 96 Ecuador89 Egypt112 El Salvador Equatorial Guinea 107 136 Mongolia108 Montenegro52 Morocco130 Mozambique185 Myanmar149 Namibia128 Nepal157 Netherlands4 New Zealand 6 Nicaragua129 Niger186 Nigeria153 Eritrea181 Estonia33 Ethiopia173 Fiji96 Finland21 France20 Gabon106 Gambia165 Uruguay51 Uzbekistan114 Vanuatu124 Venezuela. State of Papua New Guinea 110 156 Panama59 Paraguay111 Peru77 Philippines114 Poland39 Portugal43 Qatar36 Romania56 Russian Federation Saint Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Sao Tome and Principe Saudi Arabia 55 72 88 83 144 57 Rwanda167 Samoa96 Botswana119 Brazil85 Brunei Darussalam Burkina Faso 30 183 Bulgaria57 Burundi178 Cambodia138 Cameroon150 Canada11 Cape Verde Central African Republic 132 180 Senegal154 Serbia64 Seychelles46 Sierra Leone 177 Singapore18 Slovakia35 Slovenia21 Solomon Islands South Africa Sri Lanka 143 121 92 Spain23 Sudan171 Suriname105 Swaziland141 Sweden7 Switzerland9 Syrian Arab Republic Tanzania. 2012 | 143 . Republic of 12 Kuwait54 Kyrgyzstan125 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 138 Latvia44 Lebanon72 Lesotho158 Liberia174 Libya64 Liechtenstein24 Lithuania41 Luxembourg26 Madagascar151 Malawi170 Malaysia64 Maldives104 Mali182 Malta32 Mauritania155 Mauritius80 Mexico61 Micronesia.

3 16.4 12.900 0.8 79.9 c 10.1 79.5 11.818 0.934 0.724 15.9 16.518 26.7 12.461 11.791 0.895 0.909 0.0 13.816 0.6 76.805 144 | Human Development Report 2013 .0 81.913 0.7 15.805 0.3 11.796 0.3 10.158 48.358 28.999 25.840 0.6 c 12.919 0.850 0.5 18.2 13.835 0.920 0.3 16.9 16.776 14.8 14.8 10.3 14.527 32.2 74.419 19.6 78.836 0.8 81.938 0.821 0.860 0.826 0.347 22.184 33.3 11.9 70.851 0.401 13.7 d 18.806 0.788 0.231 45.7 81.7 15.4 l 9.385 13.696 87.793 0.3 g 10.5 11.6 10.937 0.2 12.775 81.912 0.5 15.0 14.8 75.987 16.0 78.7 80.5 l 8.6 c 12.814 0.839 0.0 76.8 9.872 0.901 0.913 0.874 0.2 81.2 13.819 0.7 48.855 0.2 14.892 0.6 7.1 74.4 e 12.7 69.8 72.6 82.4 c 11.1 79.4 8.892 0.3 14.0 c 13.6 81.3 15.869 0.333 10.885 0.0 c 11.825 21.1 c 10.943 0.1 17.893 0.846 0.906 0.431 24.0 75.9 8.5 83.690 23.538 22.510 23.3 77.2 14.4 11.4 10.3 82.7 e 14.0 78.8 80.1 11.3 15.7 11.2 9.5 16.6 77.0 9.794 0.9 10.3 77.856 0.616 5.978 0.1 80.0 16.875 0.3 11.011 11.463 m 52.0 10.3 11.5 76.850 0.818 0.277 32.1 13.8 80.834 0.5 c 9.837 0.3 9.960 0.761 0.4 i 12.977 0.5 l 12.402 19.894 0.810 0.883 0.6 79.945 0.5 74.978 0.480 37.1 79.777 0.808 0.671 36. China (SAR) 13 Iceland 15 Denmark 16 Israel 17 Belgium 18 Austria 18 Singapore 20 France 21 Finland 21 Slovenia 23 Spain 24 Liechtenstein 25 Italy 26 Luxembourg 26 United Kingdom 28 Czech Republic 29 Greece 30 Brunei Darussalam 31 Cyprus 32 Malta 33 Andorra 33 Estonia 35 Slovakia 36 Qatar 37 Hungary 38 Barbados 39 Poland 40 Chile 41 Lithuania 41 United Arab Emirates 43 Portugal 44 Latvia 45 Argentina 46 Seychelles 47 Croatia High human development 48 Bahrain 49 Bahamas 50 Belarus 51 Uruguay 52 Montenegro 52 Palau 54 Kuwait 55 Russian Federation 56 Romania 57 Bulgaria 57 Saudi Arabia 59 Cuba 59 Panama 61 Mexico 0.7 15.780 0.7 12.907 0.892 0.539 n 13.7 10.615 15.940 0.1 Human Development Index and its components Human Development Index (HDI) Value Life expectancy at birth (years) 2012 Mean years of schooling (years) 2010a Expected years of schooling (years) 2011b Gross national income (GNI) per capita (2005 PPP $) 2012 2012 GNI per capita rank minus HDI rank Nonincome HDI Value 2012 Table HDI rank 2012 Very high human development 1 Norway 2 Australia 3 United States 4 Netherlands 5 Germany 6 New Zealand 7 Ireland 7 Sweden 9 Switzerland 10 Japan 11 Canada 12 Korea.4 15.3 14.863 0.831 0.908 0.8 80.4 15.3 16.285 32.0 81.5 81.2 15.3 d 16.790 0.067 20.613 30.9 10.9 79.9 15.7 15.176 33.511 45.9 16.911 0.5 19.3 15.716 19.8 16.0 81.1 16.791 0.6 c 7.4 11.847 0.8 82.0 81.1 12.0 14.4 8.859 0.471 11.848 0.829 0.782 0.1 9.688 34.8 10.8 16.0 15.9 16.2 73.918 j 17.840 0.474 22.780 0.811 0.7 10.9 80.282 35.7 10.936 0.919 0.598 29.6 77.438 52.6 14.5 c 10.5 14.4 c 10.816 0.340 43.924 0.1 c 10.6 c 10.224 33.2 6.1 11.949 0.806 0.886 0.3 10.730 0.545 35.1 73. Republic of 13 Hong Kong.478 k 16.8 76.916 0.369 28.6 80.5 17.792 0.880 0.858 0.7 c 11.825 0.846 0.7 83.1 80.1 c 8.8 c 9.308 17.955 0.6 d 16.783 0.958 0.1 74.2 75.3 79.4 f 16.154 27.786 0.6 74.947 84.3 d 16.3 76.1 14.947 4 15 6 8 10 26 19 6 2 11 5 15 –6 12 4 13 3 –5 –15 4 2 12 8 –22 5 –20 –5 10 13 –23 4 9 –15 13 9 –35 13 10 7 13 7 –31 0 10 7 –9 4 –3 –21 11 11 24 18 –51 0 16 12 –21 44 1 4 0.143 40.782 0.906 0.919 0.942 0.942 0.793 14.7 16.832 0.7 80.9 7.774 0.4 e 19.2 13.1 75.880 h 26.911 0.917 0.6 9.926 0.3 72.0 80.088 17.519 12.858 42.832 0.948 0.848 0.921 0.830 0.6 12.897 0.0 11.7 9.7 73.876 0.7 79.899 0.2 15.873 0.8 15.875 0.0 14.429 36.907 14.916 0.895 0.912 0.881 0.6 11.

9 12.713 8.170 7.8 11.0 12.6 77.7 6.3 8.3 c 7.774 0.6 5.971 7.827 0.720 0.4 e 10.8 p 8.769 0.497 5.3 13.7 65.3 73.731 0.740 0.629 79.1 72.4 77. Islamic Republic of 77 Peru 78 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 78 Ukraine 80 Mauritius 81 Bosnia and Herzegovina 82 Azerbaijan 83 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 84 Oman 85 Brazil 85 Jamaica 87 Armenia 88 Saint Lucia 89 Ecuador 90 Turkey 91 Colombia 92 Sri Lanka 93 Algeria 94 Tunisia Medium human development 95 Tonga 96 Belize 96 Dominican Republic 96 Fiji 96 Samoa 100 Jordan 101 China 102 Turkmenistan 103 Thailand 104 Maldives 105 Suriname 106 Gabon 107 El Salvador 108 Bolivia.478 7.2 l 8.7 73.741 0.770 0.364 12.734 0.723 0.787 0.533 13.5 13.761 0.776 0.777 0.444 4.791 0.2 73.5 10.327 12.699 0.8 11.1 70.2 12.748 0.754 0.745 0.5 76.4 11.769 0.813 0.676 9.2 o 7.711 5.8 74.367 24.9 12.683 0.2 73.521 5.4 14.690 0.3 77.8 73.762 0.698 0.977 5.Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World Human Development Index (HDI) Value HDI rank 2012 Life expectancy at birth (years) 2012 Mean years of schooling (years) 2010a Expected years of schooling (years) 2011b Gross national income (GNI) per capita (2005 PPP $) 2012 GNI per capita rank minus HDI rank Nonincome HDI Value 2012 2012 62 Costa Rica 63 Grenada 64 Libya 64 Malaysia 64 Serbia 67 Antigua and Barbuda 67 Trinidad and Tobago 69 Kazakhstan 70 Albania 71 Venezuela.0 13.695 0.3 9.9 75.2 74.451 7.102 3.7 c 8.8 13.634 0.7 11.103 4.2 c 10.845 0.6 69.745 0.5 69.629 0.4 13.5 75.722 0.1 74.5 c 13.742 0.672 0.7 11.4 69.713 0.3 13.712 0.768 0.2 8.594 12 21 –8 –7 16 –12 –28 8 21 –2 –1 37 –5 –5 –1 6 2 22 –17 13 5 –1 –51 –8 14 16 1 7 –32 –6 18 4 –6 26 8 –11 24 28 8 –11 –10 –10 –9 –7 –40 –5 7 10 20 4 –6 19 11 19 –2 14 11 –55 8 –3 13 –42 0.3 11.608 Table 1  Human Development Index and its components | 145 .1 75.6 12.8 73.7 13.8 68.9 c 10.9 14.2 10.724 0.684 0.794 0.0 72.791 0.8 7.765 13.1 11.792 0.645 0.092 10.7 e 11.722 7.428 13.257 13.2 c 8.791 0.636 0.3 c 8.6 6.760 0.9 72.6 73.1 o 7.743 0.4 74.0 68.780 0.6 76.9 9.715 0.654 0.8 70.2 9.460 10.4 10.822 11.694 0.6 e 12.4 12.3 73.387 13.680 0.5 73.792 0.6 13.2 53.153 5.0 12.740 0.7 8.724 0.7 l 12.300 7.6 14.733 0.751 0.079 9.8 8.766 0.319 3.426 4.1 73.4 76.377 6.596 0.6 10.9 68.755 0.087 3.9 72.471 13.710 0.4 8.7 15.755 0.418 8.8 70.632 0.780 0.7 13.3 7.715 0.728 0.701 0.730 0.6 13.5 14.5 5.506 4.327 8.807 0.695 9.359 q 4.745 0.8 75.5 7.703 0.6 c 7.4 8.730 0.769 0.3 74.719 0.2 13.7 12.4 7.8 c 7.4 13.7 72.245 3. State of 111 Paraguay 112 Egypt 113 Moldova.807 0.941 10.702 0.745 0.669 0.688 0.3 11.7 72.772 0.1 e 10.8 63.2 o 11.782 7.4 66.153 9.735 0.7 13.4 e 7.3 12.5 12.702 0.306 9.752 3.8 73.773 0.6 7.729 0.272 7.675 0.747 0.767 0.0 69.8 16.9 13.9 p 6.3 11.6 69.675 0.0 73.662 0.740 0.6 13.2 13.9 15.749 0.6 11.6 e 5.771 0.746 0.475 10.702 0.9 l 8.5 12.816 0.2 70.5 l 7.5 9.7 12.702 0.4 53.715 0.700 0.352 m 3.0 o 5.725 0.823 0.005 12.0 68.8 e 8.0 13.3 l 11.745 0.763 0.702 0.670 0.7 73.4 14.746 0.3 67.760 0.9 13.5 74. Republic of 114 Philippines 114 Uzbekistan 116 Syrian Arab Republic 117 Micronesia.8 8.7 12.808 0.737 0.3 9. Bolivarian Republic of 72 Dominica 72 Georgia 72 Lebanon 72 Saint Kitts and Nevis 76 Iran.4 12.674 r 3.727 0.5 8.5 10.5 73.710 0.2 75.800 0.726 0. Federated States of 118 Guyana 119 Botswana 120 Honduras 121 Indonesia 121 Kiribati 121 South Africa 0.5 14.654 0.740 0.710 8.7 c 10.648 0.201 4.540 7.6 e 7.730 0.4 74. Plurinational State of 108 Mongolia 110 Palestine.719 0.3 e 7.7 13.660 0.2 8.701 5.5 12.883 21.0 l 7.2 13.928 5.629 0.0 c 7.4 9.154 3.3 l 8.863 9.4 72.668 0.152 6.2 12.401 3.0 74.692 0.8 73.3 13.769 0.945 7.2 74.1 12.767 0.7 8.6 6.5 9.915 4.1 12.5 7.9 6.

3 2.9 57.7 51.1 8.567 0.3 8.344 0.581 0.386 0.534 0.3 4.6 48.6 10.9 5.492 0.566 4.355 0.009 2.4 65.9 58.5 6.715 3.495 0.812 1.542 0.6 12.4 10.8 3.538 0.386 1.5 4.9 62.343 0.5 55.1 5.0 51.572 0.350 1.8 75.470 0.6 e 11.4 e 2.7 1.8 4.4 62.384 3.358 2.476 0.5 6.3 10.557 3.355 0.684 21.515 0.359 0.653 2.8 11.817 2.473 0.6 11.4 4.246 5.527 0.425 0.515 0.9 11.9 5.8 e 8.686 0.5 65.553 0.9 4.8 63.388 0.4 69.2 s 3.9 52.7 6.731 0.168 1.482 0.508 0.516 0.147 1.617 0.1 7.501 0.439 0.4 9.7 11.474 0.8 4.4 10.7 52.591 0.5 65.436 0.534 0.434 0.646 0.530 0.1 9.6 58.7 56.1 12.9 10.5 11.5 p 4.1 9.5 3.554 0.554 0.536 0.380 0.463 0.623 0.202 1.448 0.042 881 544 941 722 531 853 1.432 0.8 5.095 2.6 74.1 8.114 828 1.5 7.0 8.3 68.435 0.396 0.351 0.738 0.7 57.2 2.1 69.608 0.439 1.4 10.3 49.543 0.7 7.332 0.569 0.2 p 5.368 0.7 10.934 2.5 10.456 0.446 1.8 10.5 p 1.0 67.5 e 8.5 5.5 49.9 7.1 2.2 3.340 0.9 54.3 59.7 11.483 0.626 0.3 s 7.7 e 9.137 1.5 3.1 48.672 0.364 0.429 0.445 0.4 62.352 0.543 0.820 1.327 71.8 56.2 10.7 10.7 59.498 0.2 3.463 0.393 0.017 480 1.8 4.588 0.8 67.6 67.476 0.3 71.7 s 3.9 64.3 58.table 1  Human Development index and its components Human Development Index (HDI) Value HDI rank 2012 Life expectancy at birth (years) 2012 Mean years of schooling (years) 2010a Expected years of schooling (years) 2011b Gross national income (GNI) per capita (2005 PPP $) 2012 GNI per capita rank minus HDI rank Nonincome HDI Value 2012 2012 124 Vanuatu 125 Kyrgyzstan 125 Tajikistan 127 Viet Nam 128 Namibia 129 Nicaragua 130 Morocco 131 Iraq 132 Cape Verde 133 Guatemala 134 Timor-Leste 135 Ghana 136 Equatorial Guinea 136 India 138 Cambodia 138 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 140 Bhutan 141 Swaziland Low human development 142 Congo 143 Solomon Islands 144 Sao Tome and Principe 145 Kenya 146 Bangladesh 146 Pakistan 148 Angola 149 Myanmar 150 Cameroon 151 Madagascar 152 Tanzania.7 3.7 8.9 4.7 57.1 62.2 2.7 s 7.3 2.5 10.172 1.9 3.1 66.515 0.458 0.1 4.373 0.502 0.119 2.599 0.1 5.537 0.258 906 –1 24 19 9 –27 10 –13 –4 –6 –14 –29 22 –97 –3 9 2 –31 –30 –5 1 7 15 9 –9 –35 5 –4 28 10 –6 4 –12 –15 11 –8 16 –7 7 5 0 –22 –9 –5 0 –9 4 10 –19 14 –2 11 –3 –6 0 4 –4 1 3 –4 –18 –20 –9 0.879 928 1.848 424 t 1.1 9.520 0.586 0.9 4.7 6.3 9.671 0.7 10.3 e 11.4 58.6 48.617 0.519 0.324 0.8 52.4 54.8 61.9 49.960 2.9 63.0 5.542 0.1 5.4 5.3 o 1.7 3.0 4.5 49.521 0.0 12.383 2.359 0.285 2.4 9.327 146 | Human Development Report 2013 .597 0.466 0.418 0.2 65.423 0.464 0.864 1.611 0.590 0.609 4.397 0.459 0.9 50.476 0.1 50.3 72.070 1.576 0.471 0.7 69.7 10.2 s 4.2 3.8 p 4.3 10.6 7.483 0.456 0.970 5.9 55.104 2.4 5.461 0.4 7.1 48.973 2.435 5.6 74.000 1.2 5.8 6.405 0.9 c 5.0 61.511 0.3 10.622 0.2 9.6 2.608 0.6 8.9 57.6 s 3.9 6.596 0.2 5.0 c 1.601 0.5 54.235 5.7 9.2 64.584 0.444 0.558 0.9 10.9 3.448 0.8 4.4 s 7.8 o 2.374 0.5 10.3 o 3.731 1.579 0. United Republic of 153 Nigeria 154 Senegal 155 Mauritania 156 Papua New Guinea 157 Nepal 158 Lesotho 159 Togo 160 Yemen 161 Haiti 161 Uganda 163 Zambia 164 Djibouti 165 Gambia 166 Benin 167 Rwanda 168 Côte d’Ivoire 169 Comoros 170 Malawi 171 Sudan 172 Zimbabwe 173 Ethiopia 174 Liberia 175 Afghanistan 176 Guinea-Bissau 177 Sierra Leone 178 Burundi 178 Guinea 180 Central African Republic 181 Eritrea 182 Mali 183 Burkina Faso 184 Chad 185 Mozambique 0.551 4.541 1.414 0.102 1.479 0.785 2.2 8.525 0.467 0.174 2.9 9.6 3.418 0.459 0.6 51.4 10.1 7.4 o 4.1 8.593 986 774 1.575 0.2 10.5 e 4.526 0.8 68.622 0.484 0.

11.475 0.874 12. . .712 0. g Assumes the same adult mean years of schooling as Switzerland before the most recent update. .2 6..5 10.475 0.. . p Based on data on years of schooling of adults from household surveys in the World Bank’s International Income Distribution Database. .397 10.8 16. See Technical note 1 at http://hdr.8 4. ..5 4. h Estimated using the purchasing power parity (PPP) rate and the projected growth rate of Switzerland. .1 73. Table 1  Human Development Index and its components | 147 . A negative value means that the country is better ranked by GNI than by the HDI.. Nonincome HDI: Value of the HDI computed from the life expectancy and education indicators only.652 0.3 82.7 55.pdf for details on how the HDI is calculated. converted from educational attainment levels using official durations of each level. .7 11... projected growth rate based on ECLAC (2012) and UNDESA (2012c) projected growth rates..9 59.Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World Human Development Index (HDI) Value HDI rank 2012 Life expectancy at birth (years) 2012 Mean years of schooling (years) 2010a Expected years of schooling (years) 2011b Gross national income (GNI) per capita (2005 PPP $) 2012 GNI per capita rank minus HDI rank Nonincome HDI Value 2012 2012 186 Congo. of Marshall Islands Monaco Nauru San Marino Somalia South Sudan Tuvalu Human Development Index groups Very high human development High human development Medium human development Low human development Regions Arab States East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Least developed countries Small island developing states World 0. 33. ... .9 59. . .6 11.6 319 701 .. f Calculated by the Singapore Ministry of Education... .304 0.7 .3 7.5 . knowledge and a decent standard of living.905 0.. Expected years of schooling: Number of years of schooling that a child of school entrance age can expect to receive if prevailing patterns of age-specific enrolment rates persist throughout the child’s life. . . . .385 5. s Based on data from ICF Macro (2012).4 8.5 74..479 0.313 . Column 6: Calculated based on data in columns 1 and 5. .4 7. .5 1. GNI per capita rank minus HDI rank: Difference in rankings by GNI per capita and by the HDI. . 11.0 72.3 13..577 0..2 9.184 0 –4 .466 0..0 81.1 71. Column 3: Barro and Lee (2011) and HDRO updates based on data on educational attainment from UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2012) and on methodology from Barro and Lee (2010).640 0.8 70... 0. .5 10.771 0. r Based on projected growth rates from UNDESA (2012c).7 7. 10.487 0.801 0. . . ..7 66.. m Based on projected growth rates by ADB (2012).3 80.. MAIN DATA SOURCES Column 1: HDRO calculations based on data from UNDESA (2011).758 0.1 3. .7 3.4 .9 11..5 8. World Bank (2012a) and IMF (2012).5 69. less the incomes paid for the use of factors of production owned by the rest of the world. UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2012).343 2. t Based on PPP data from IMF (2012).391 11. i Assumes the same adult mean years of schooling as Spain before the most recent update.5 80.317 6. .4 .0 7.673 0. e Based on cross-country regression.927 0..5 2... .404 0.781 0. Column 5: HDRO calculations based on data from World Bank (2012a). Life expectancy at birth: Number of years a newborn infant could expect to live if prevailing patterns of age-specific mortality rates at the time of birth stay the same throughout the infant’s life.. d For the HDI calculation this value is capped at 18 years. q Based on an unpublished estimate of the PPP conversion rate from the World Bank and projected growth rates from UNESCWA (2012) and UNDESA (2012c).5 8.undp.449 0.2 54. o Based on data from UNICEF Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys for 2002–2012.. b Data refer to 2011 or the most recent year available..0 72. c Updated by HDRO based on UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2012) data. ..558 0. 3 and 4.. Gross national income (GNI) per capita: Aggregate income of an economy generated by its production and its ownership of factors of production. ..770 0. — — — — — — — — — — — — — 0.428 1. n PPP estimate based on cross-country regression. Barro and Lee (2011).010 1.304 . Democratic People’s Rep. l Based on the UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2012) estimate of educational attainment distribution.694 48. converted to international dollars using PPP rates. IMF (2012) and UNSD (2012a).658 0..3 4. Democratic Republic of the 186 Niger Other countries or territories Korea. 9. Column 7: Calculated based on data in columns 2. ..633 8. Mean years of schooling: Average number of years of education received by people ages 25 and older. ..7 10. k Based on implied PPP conversion factors from IMF (2012).243 10.683 0.3 12.7 13.648 0. . j Estimated using the PPP rate and the projected growth rate of Spain.org/ en/media/HDR_2013_EN_TechNotes.2 10. 67.4 69.9 .741 0.300 3..8 6. Column 2: UNDESA (2011)..7 71.. . Column 4: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2012).. 0.661 0.. ...9 51.. .690 Notes a Data refer to 2010 or the most recent year available.3 8.7 4.1 69. divided by midyear population.501 5.. DEFINITIONS Human Development Index (HDI): A composite index measuring average achievement in three basic dimensions of human development—a long and healthy life.8 13.

875 0.834 0.735 0.709 0.800 0.801 0.735 0.862 0..16 .840 0. Republic of 13 Hong Kong.908 0..773 0.912 0.916 0.755 0.899 0.779 0.. 0.55 .953 0.892 0. 0.872 0.59 .802 .. 0.792 0. 1980–2012 Human Development Index (HDI) Value HDI rank Change 2007 2010 2011 2012 2007–2012a a Average annual HDI growth (%) HDI rank 1980 1990 2000 2005 2011–2012 1980/1990 1990/2000 2000/2010 2000/2012 Very high human development 1 Norway 2 Australia 3 United States 4 Netherlands 5 Germany 6 New Zealand 7 Ireland 7 Sweden 9 Switzerland 10 Japan 11 Canada 12 Korea.817 0.638 .25 1.841 0.765 0.780 0.804 0. .813 0.14 0. ..35 0.852 0.17 0.828 0...796 0.797 0.809 0..801 . 0. 0.02 .875 0.. 1.830 0.793 0.33 0.22 0.67 0.890 0.717 0...816 0.12 0.836 0.796 0.780 0.85 0.874 0.86 0.781 0.30 0. .911 0.916 0.781 .883 0..787 0. .921 0. 0.905 0.575 0.745 0.35 0.728 0.42 0..67 0.823 0.852 0.901 0.65 .854 0.877 0.841 0.49 0..799 0.881 0.802 .93 0.906 0.912 0.706 0.804 0. .63 0.910 0.875 0.654 0.766 .60 1..758 0.756 0.34 0.787 0.732 0.900 0.738 0.900 0.772 0.664 .22 0..811 0.749 0.903 0.892 0. 0.59 0.879 0.791 0. 0. 0. 0.936 0.738 0.901 0.626 0.64 0.808 0.89 0..831 0.770 0.. .948 0.55 0..825 0. .816 0.715 0.644 .747 .770 0. 0.833 0.723 0.79 0.871 0.784 0.885 0. 0.27 0. .60 0. .790 0..64 0.869 0. 0. –2 –5 2 –1 0 0 4 2 .29 0.37 0. China (SAR) 13 Iceland 15 Denmark 16 Israel 17 Belgium 18 Austria 18 Singapore 20 France 21 Finland 21 Slovenia 23 Spain 24 Liechtenstein 25 Italy 26 Luxembourg 26 United Kingdom 28 Czech Republic 29 Greece 30 Brunei Darussalam 31 Cyprus 32 Malta 33 Andorra 33 Estonia 35 Slovakia 36 Qatar 37 Hungary 38 Barbados 39 Poland 40 Chile 41 Lithuania 41 United Arab Emirates 43 Portugal 44 Latvia 45 Argentina 46 Seychelles 47 Croatia High human development 48 Bahrain 49 Bahamas 50 Belarus 51 Uruguay 52 Montenegro 52 Palau 54 Kuwait 55 Russian Federation 56 Romania 57 Bulgaria 57 Saudi Arabia 59 Cuba 59 Panama 61 Mexico 62 Costa Rica 0.922 0..52 0.38 .952 0.875 0.67 0.673 0.76 1.80 . 0.898 0.857 0.78 0.723 0.29 0.773 0.921 0.27 0. 0. 0.937 0.744 0.759 0.76 148 | Human Development Report 2013 .862 0.882 0.681 0.894 0.938 0.798 0.882 0..848 0.. 0.10 0.52 . 0..89 0.837 0.839 0.96 .818 0.11 0..62 0.663 0.792 0. 0.831 0.67 0..887 0.790 0.794 0.848 0.766 0.54 0.827 0.756 0..882 0.756 0.826 0.758 0.899 0. 0.693 .791 0.877 0. 0.68 0.760 .892 0..64 0.. ..713 0.817 0.756 0.24 0.955 0. 0.904 0.847 0.85 1.835 0.62 0.35 0.787 0. 1..51 0.28 0.706 .916 0.05 0.846 0.56 0..824 0.781 0.701 ..48 0..38 .68 .644 0..830 0. 0.81 0.721 0.878 0.846 0.804 0..936 0.35 0.58 0.897 0.848 0.. .771 0.75 0.847 0.916 0. . 0.76 0. 0.70 .879 0.791 0.59 0.65 0. 0.817 0. 0.02 0.865 0.748 .832 0.73 .865 0.907 0.634 0.54 .861 0.818 0.36 0.905 0.770 0.699 0.805 0.786 0.712 0.99 0..784 0.893 0.62 0.875 0.891 0.883 0.785 0.730 0.29 0.728 0.818 0. –2 –1 –3 1 2 3 5 –2 –5 –1 –4 4 1 –1 –4 .33 0. 0.27 0.68 .830 0.912 0.917 0.741 .897 0.885 0.743 0.853 0.802 0.849 0.41 0.23 0.792 0..62 0.806 0.46 ..785 0. 0. 12 3 0 –4 –4 0 –3 0 5 –4 1 –1 4 0 0 –1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 –1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 –1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 –1 –3 1 –1 0 –1 0 0 1 0 –2 2 –1 0 –1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.901 0.53 0.892 0.794 0.867 0.875 0.844 0.915 0..724 0.87 0.907 0.896 0.31 0.756 0..770 0.827 0.14 0.931 0.93 0.65 0.42 .02 0. 0.901 0..41 0.914 0. 0.795 0.789 0.04 0.59 0. 0..786 0..78 0.62 0. .913 0..918 0.775 0..702 0. .02 0..745 0.675 0.92 .81 0.37 .00 0.780 0.93 0.704 0..77 0.33 0.48 0.775 0.825 0.807 0.896 0.28 0.32 0.18 0. 0.874 .48 0. ..85 0.884 0.865 0.839 0.842 0..757 . 0.38 0. 0.881 0.830 0.855 0. 0.85 0.909 0.860 0.695 .653 0. 0...45 0.798 0.15 . 0.92 –0.74 1.919 0.774 0.935 0.04 0.896 0.12 0.805 0.730 0.598 0.817 0.805 0.714 0.52 0.792 0.817 0.771 0.785 0.887 0.823 0. 0.61 0. 0.49 0.783 0.729 0.49 0.885 0.2 Table Human Development Index trends.47 .79 0.748 0.865 .82 0...44 0. 0.775 0.675 .806 0.819 0.756 0...712 0.43 0.833 0.901 0.884 0.952 0.888 0.666 0.909 0.854 0.827 .898 0.48 1.52 0.713 .690 0.39 0.827 0...857 0..782 0.799 0..810 0.853 0.56 0. 0. 0.45 .89 0. 0.769 0..881 0.713 .81 1.58 1.25 0.33 0.814 0. 0.33 0.46 0.909 0..705 0.34 0.40 0.782 0.778 0.773 0 0 0 2 5 –1 –3 0 3 1 –4 4 10 –4 –2 –2 –2 2 7 –1 –5 –3 1 .816 0.893 0.899 0..907 0.33 0.911 0.772 0.884 0.909 0.37 0.640 0.910 0.792 0.32 . 0.845 0.790 0.789 0.788 0..58 ..714 0.879 .820 0.777 0.870 0.68 0.621 0.780 0.789 0.815 0.821 0.814 0.817 0. .58 0.814 0..913 0.38 0.826 0.791 0. 0.67 0.869 0.878 0.716 0.901 0.810 0.86 0.62 0.892 0.23 0. 0.792 0.934 0.891 0.804 0.78 0.790 0.786 0.33 0.83 0...892 0..867 0.786 0.801 .808 0.798 0.15 .810 0.40 0.76 1.787 0.756 .873 0.50 0. 0. 0. 0.31 0.. 0. 0.809 0..908 0.927 0..829 .776 0..784 0.33 0.32 0.849 0.786 0.67 0.29 0.915 0. .869 0.803 0.907 0.14 0.18 0.890 0.34 0.74 .893 0.909 0.24 0.698 .782 0.843 0.07 0.45 1.77 0.27 0.770 0.817 0.48 0.885 0. 0.862 0.875 0.756 . 0.45 0.842 0.819 0.755 0.48 0.878 0...16 0.34 0.56 0..838 0.905 0.. .815 0.912 0.793 0.890 0..63 0.844 0.808 0.919 0. .50 0. 1.895 0.840 0..57 .824 0.846 0.84 0.777 0.768 0. 0.25 .892 0. 0.918 0.47 0.46 0.866 0.29 0. 0.871 0.895 0.906 0.782 0.865 0.847 .709 0.22 0.. .64 0.923 0.726 0.06 0.788 0.42 0.. .788 0.732 .788 0.43 .903 0.746 0.744 0.894 0.929 0.783 0.829 0.62 0..64 0.920 0.880 0.810 0.754 0. 0.806 0.891 0.46 0..34 0.764 0.93 0.14 0.765 0.66 ..771 0.32 0.892 0.784 .778 0.784 0.906 0.796 0.57 0.753 0..919 0.33 0.779 0.846 0.876 0.00 0.

711 0.699 0.582 0.01 . .. 1980–2012 | 149 .. ..766 0. .. 0.743 0.89 1..753 0.43 0.635 0.683 0.662 0.724 0.575 ..728 . –1 1 –2 0 –3 0 4 .87 ..40 0.722 .732 0.749 0.595 . . 10 –1 0 5 5 2 –7 –4 4 –3 –3 –7 4 ..26 . . 0.608 0.710 0.760 0.744 0.621 .728 0.619 .671 0.58 0. .459 .. 0.95 1.668 0.653 0.449 0.732 0.623 0. 1.33 .620 0.01 . 0.675 0. 0 4 –7 .629 0. 0.593 0.661 0.625 0.85 0.. 0. 0...559 .592 0. 0.31 . . .735 0.91 0... 0...654 0.01 0..679 0. 0.737 0.710 0. 0.14 1.29 0.725 0..731 0.723 .700 0.21 ...626 0.00 0..769 0...742 0. 0.07 1.76 0..622 .633 0..08 0..641 0.669 0.540 .684 0. 0..08 0.41 ... 0.729 0.604 .698 0.740 0.. . 0. . 0.685 0. –3 –1 23 b 1 0 –1 –1 –1 –1 –1 0 3 0 –1 –2 –1 –2 0 –1 –1 –1 –2 –1 0 –2 –1 0 0 0 0 0 –1 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 –1 0 0 –1 0 2 1 –2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 –1 0 3 0 1 –2 0 .693 0..725 0. 0. 1..67 ...679 0..699 0.630 0.699 0.744 0. .. 0.97 1.65 . ..634 0. .639 0.21 .719 0.763 0. .649 0.618 ..711 0.549 0.745 0.96 0.625 0...738 0..92 0.720 0..629 .51 1. 0..54 0.21 2..70 1.773 0.702 0..721 0. 0.689 0. .663 0. .751 . 0. State of 111 Paraguay 112 Egypt 113 Moldova..636 0.662 0...634 0.62 1.617 0.738 0.694 0..690 0.75 0.. 0.682 0.625 0. ...528 0.03 0. 0.689 0.85 0.87 . 1... .. 0. 0.578 0. 0.10 0.640 0. 0. 0.08 0.657 0.08 .726 0.686 0.679 0.52 0. 1....580 ...57 0. ..769 0.712 0..563 . 0. . –0. 1.733 0. 0. 0.474 0. .642 0.654 0... .83 1.. 0.37 1.731 0.662 0....737 0.557 . 0. .691 0.79 0.668 0. . .615 0.60 1.610 .42 .592 0.732 0.701 0.627 0.632 0... 0..569 0.699 0.51 0..719 0...683 0. .407 ..49 . .713 0. 0.39 0.69 0.636 0.743 0..702 0.754 0. 0.693 0.81 .626 .666 0. 0.79 1.654 0.12 .746 0. .64 0. .66 1.760 0.662 0. 0.77 .649 0..650 0.68 –0. .770 0.657 0.684 0. 0. .672 0.526 0...698 0.711 0. 0. 0.407 .732 0..61 0.32 .700 0. 0.676 . 0. 0...646 0.609 .680 0.708 0.. 0. 0. 0.693 0.670 0.23 0. 0.647 0.728 0.04 0.732 0.695 0. .572 .. 1. –0.47 . ....707 0.680 0..75 0. –1 2 0 9 –3 0 3 .. 0.625 0. 0. 0. 0.761 0.705 0.632 0. 0.563 0..683 0..636 0.695 0..78 . 0..620 0.33 1.722 0.82 0. 0.95 0.08 .502 0.637 .635 .666 0.710 0.639 0.569 ..655 0.596 0. .73 0.604 0.676 0.70 .685 .699 0.622 .701 0.688 0.93 0.730 0.622 .740 0. Bolivarian Republic of 72 Dominica 72 Georgia 72 Lebanon 72 Saint Kitts and Nevis 76 Iran. .670 0.760 0.. 0.704 0. 1.737 0.705 0.596 .669 0.702 0. .35 .93 1....729 .620 0.93 0...733 0..686 0..644 0.746 0. 0.648 .520 0..73 .629 0..96 .. –0. . .. .722 0..768 0.07 0..714 0.769 0.681 0. . 0. .54 .590 0. 0.456 0.734 0.733 0.726 . ..729 0..93 0.628 . . 0.729 0.619 0.630 0.733 0.. .26 0...25 0.11 .. . 0.739 0.69 1.489 . 0.736 0.625 0..715 0.39 ..735 0.650 0.71 1.586 0. 0..594 0.662 .745 0..... 0.734 0.720 0. 1.553 0. .688 0.714 0.82 1.49 .80 ..748 0. 0..43 ..87 .52 2..719 0.. 0.600 0..699 0. 0 .652 0. 7 3 1 –5 –2 –6 . 0. –5 1 –5 . Republic of 114 Philippines 114 Uzbekistan 116 Syrian Arab Republic 117 Micronesia.45 .. –1 0 –2 0 1 0 .522 0.58 . 1..80 0.694 0.. 0.760 . 0.710 0. 0.88 2.557 0. 1.730 0. .49 0.671 0.78 0.612 0.. 0.25 0.48 0.660 0. 0. 0.422 .584 0.695 0.495 ..695 .640 0.669 0.741 0. 0.78 .699 0. .676 0.Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World Human Development Index (HDI) Value HDI rank 1980 1990 2000 2005 2007 2010 2011 2012 HDI rank Change 2007–2012a a Average annual HDI growth (%) 2011–2012 1980/1990 1990/2000 2000/2010 2000/2012 63 Grenada 64 Libya 64 Malaysia 64 Serbia 67 Antigua and Barbuda 67 Trinidad and Tobago 69 Kazakhstan 70 Albania 71 Venezuela.624 0.564 . Plurinational State of 108 Mongolia 110 Palestine.646 0.590 ..628 0..745 0.94 0.490 .. .... 0.581 .15 0. .49 1.742 0.86 0. 0.76 0.621 0. 0.51 . ...717 0..702 0.641 0.614 ..767 0.701 0.740 0.770 0.684 0.629 0.501 . .561 .72 1....709 0. . . 0..85 0...587 0.. 1. .617 0.695 0.05 0.94 .99 0.71 1.745 0. 0..744 0. .630 0.712 0. 0.697 0..645 0..98 .723 0.759 0.90 0..01 1.562 0.55 . .76 1.56 .653 0.07 .750 0.. .79 0.656 0. 0.745 0.617 0..72 1.679 0.673 0. 0..744 0. ..582 ..28 1....659 0.679 .83 0.08 .680 .653 0.644 0..694 0.769 0.66 1..712 0.710 0..670 0.683 0.610 0.27 1.752 0. .645 0.740 0.668 0....628 0.681 0.557 0.26 . 0. 0..35 0. 1.93 . 0. .734 0.67 0.75 1..551 .716 0.26 0.443 0.612 .621 0.77 1. 0.54 .621 0.735 0.687 0. ...41 0.724 .28 0.28 ..578 0...50 .662 0..732 0.629 0.700 0.. 0.26 .746 0.17 0.627 0.726 0.748 0.718 0..648 0. 0. Islamic Republic of 77 Peru 78 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 78 Ukraine 80 Mauritius 81 Bosnia and Herzegovina 82 Azerbaijan 83 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 84 Oman 85 Brazil 85 Jamaica 87 Armenia 88 Saint Lucia 89 Ecuador 90 Turkey 91 Colombia 92 Sri Lanka 93 Algeria 94 Tunisia Medium human development 95 Tonga 96 Belize 96 Dominican Republic 96 Fiji 96 Samoa 100 Jordan 101 China 102 Turkmenistan 103 Thailand 104 Maldives 105 Suriname 106 Gabon 107 El Salvador 108 Bolivia.11 .72 0..698 0. .689 0.688 0... 0. .652 0.. . Federated States of 118 Guyana 119 Botswana 120 Honduras 121 Indonesia 121 Kiribati 121 South Africa 124 Vanuatu 125 Kyrgyzstan .724 0..709 0.63 1. 0. 0. 0.715 0. .. 1 –1 3 1 .635 .73 .679 0.82 0.. 0.678 0..650 0.56 Table 2  Human Development Index trends.734 0.28 ..545 0. 0..609 . 0.. 0..78 1..570 . 0.. 0.758 0.623 .713 0.695 0. 0.658 0..742 0.. .. .661 0.714 .638 ..727 0.610 0.601 .525 0. –0.722 0.759 0. 0.12 1.729 0.672 0.661 0. 0. . 1..663 0.. 0..556 0.502 0.. 0.61 . .59 1.15 . ..700 0.66 0.706 0.540 0.741 0.461 0.62 1.642 0.513 0.696 0.592 .663 0..28 . 0.71 .675 0.651 0.745 0..702 0. ..471 0.79 1.479 .

458 0.580 0.381 0.424 0. 0.323 0.277 0... . 0..247 0.615 0.80 .412 0.281 0.398 .395 0.454 0. .217 .... 0.77 . 0.450 0.368 0.353 .348 0.581 0..20 1.586 0.581 0.35 0. 1.532 0.298 0...553 0.73 0. .470 0.401 0.361 0.456 0. 0.47 1.61 1...519 0.571 0.. –0.346 0. .342 0.483 0.583 0.512 0.448 0.554 0.55 0. 0.470 0. 0.24 2.492 0.97 2.515 0.376 0.567 ..390 0.68 1.572 0.479 0..425 0.383 . 0.275 0..419 0..461 0.453 .83 1. 1.246 .82 . .29 2.340 0.59 .340 0..355 0.414 0. 1.65 1. 1. 0.348 0.348 0.304 3 0 –2 0 0 1 .34 1.506 0. 0.606 0. . 0.452 0..285 .69 1.295 0.81 0.352 0.14 2.53 .428 0..543 0.357 0.16 –1.315 0..37 0.287 0..35 . 0.95 1.368 0. 0..405 .234 0.09 2.02 2.511 0.471 0.522 0.56 2.364 0.36 .23 1..323 0.10 1.495 0.50 1. .377 0.234 0.344 0.420 0..08 0.427 .379 .432 .. .. .511 0. 1.474 0.513 0.368 0.381 0. 0.464 0. ..03 2. 0.391 . 0..392 0. 0.66 .558 0.462 0.501 0...510 .508 0. 1.592 0.15 –0.217 0.05 0.298 0..47 2..523 0.70 0..428 0. 0..453 0.438 0.520 0.84 1..392 . –3 –1 –6 0 1 1 –1 1 1 1 –3 15 1 –2 –3 1 2 2 –2 –4 –6 0 3 0 5 –3 2 –3 –7 1 –3 0 1 3 0 –4 1 2 –2 2 .443 0.352 0.204 .494 .314 0.484 0.34 1..506 0.397 0.298 0.460 0.33 1. .318 0. Democratic Republic of the 186 Niger ..459 0.56 ..07 0.554 0. 0.46 . 0.364 0.431 .65 1. .16 0.20 150 | Human Development Report 2013 .532 0.579 0..61 0.94 0..472 0.442 0.348 0.286 0. .95 3.622 0.350 0.411 0. 1.425 0. –0.425 0.502 0.01 1.551 0. 0. 0.435 0.41 . 0.64 1.247 0.56 2. 1.44 1.343 0... . 0.316 .58 0.357 .413 0.32 2..427 .75 .62 1.96 1.432 0..59 –0. 0.462 0.558 0...88 1.97 1.617 0.510 0.345 .48 1.441 0..543 0.99 1.. 0.591 0.444 0...440 .22 0. –0.418 0.61 1.582 0.67 1.258 0.04 3.299 0. 0..371 0. –0.37 2. 1..70 .387 0.576 0..99 1.440 0.272 .272 0.348 . 1.28 3.380 0.78 1.538 0.463 0.86 ..15 1. 0.490 0.322 0. 0. .20 .290 0. .529 0.411 0.614 0.04 .352 0.488 0.408 0. 1980–2012 Human Development Index (HDI) Value HDI rank 1980 1990 2000 2005 2007 2010 2011 2012 HDI rank Change 2007–2012a a Average annual HDI growth (%) 2011–2012 1980/1990 1990/2000 2000/2010 2000/2012 125 Tajikistan 127 Viet Nam 128 Namibia 129 Nicaragua 130 Morocco 131 Iraq 132 Cape Verde 133 Guatemala 134 Timor-Leste 135 Ghana 136 Equatorial Guinea 136 India 138 Cambodia 138 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 140 Bhutan 141 Swaziland Low human development 142 Congo 143 Solomon Islands 144 Sao Tome and Principe 145 Kenya 146 Bangladesh 146 Pakistan 148 Angola 149 Myanmar 150 Cameroon 151 Madagascar 152 Tanzania.396 0.34 .529 0.540 0.. –0.294 ..64 1. .233 0. 0. 0.78 0.05 .520 0..511 0. –1 5 7 –2 –1 –1 3 .364 0.308 .59 .. 1.21 0.317 0..50 1.369 ..31 .442 0. 3.270 .533 0.401 0. 2.375 0.35 2. 0. 0.360 0..486 .335 . 0.593 0.331 0.67 .60 0.86 .59 .399 0..422 0.578 0.478 0. 0.279 0.83 0.74 0..534 0.456 0.234 0.488 0..551 0. .429 0.427 0.198 0. 1..367 .09 1.406 0...571 0.65 1. –0..53 .328 0.49 1. 0.22 –0.07 .269 0.45 . 0.470 0.515 0.374 0.405 0..618 0.20 .458 0.466 0..297 0.47 2..512 .520 0.314 0.37 1.15 1.529 0..202 0..437 0. 0..02 3. –0...536 0.24 1. 0.502 0.337 . .488 0.314 0.452 0..433 0.429 0.586 0.525 0.29 3.459 0. 0.255 0.71 .43 .418 0..522 0.27 –0.49 1.18 0. 0.551 0.408 0.507 0.374 0. 0.62 –0.42 1..471 0.426 0..304 0.341 0.383 0.419 0. 0.342 0.349 0.29 1.61 2. –2 1 –2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 –1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 –1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 –2 0 0 0 1 1 –2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 –1 1 –1 1 –1 0 0 0 2 –1 –1 –1 1 –1 0 0 0 0 1 . 0.81 . .522 0.32 0. 0.494 0. 0.536 0. .444 ..437 0. 1.434 0.52 1.85 . 1.244 0.455 0.436 0.346 0.04 0.498 0.472 0..306 0.361 0.209 ..89 2. .415 0.533 0.301 0.280 0. 1...89 –1.426 0. 1.53 0..82 1.547 0.426 0.. 0.334 0.36 1.464 .388 0..466 0..270 . –0.454 .176 .04 3.312 0..322 0.06 –0.00 –2.464 0.367 0.599 0.456 0. 0.399 0.498 0. . .344 0.347 0.88 4.538 0....461 0. . United Republic of 153 Nigeria 154 Senegal 155 Mauritania 156 Papua New Guinea 157 Nepal 158 Lesotho 159 Togo 160 Yemen 161 Haiti 161 Uganda 163 Zambia 164 Djibouti 165 Gambia 166 Benin 167 Rwanda 168 Côte d’Ivoire 169 Comoros 170 Malawi 171 Sudan 172 Zimbabwe 173 Ethiopia 174 Liberia 175 Afghanistan 176 Guinea-Bissau 177 Sierra Leone 178 Burundi 178 Guinea 180 Central African Republic 181 Eritrea 182 Mali 183 Burkina Faso 184 Chad 185 Mozambique 186 Congo.439 0.464 0.22 1.564 .570 0.590 0.28 2.508 0.46 . 1.604 0.351 0.. 0.611 0.04 1.06 1.387 0.359 0.569 0.565 0.26 ...458 0.440 0.26 .525 0..410 . 0.355 0. 1.324 0.375 0.72 1.301 0.60 2..382 0. 2.54 ..415 0.427 0.504 0.419 0..425 0. 1.352 0. .86 0.436 0.304 0.91 .589 0.523 0.564 0.... 0.37 0..253 0.405 0.587 0.89 .441 0. 0.52 ...319 0.297 0.29 .375 0.. 0..498 0. .450 0.336 0.. 3.376 .531 0.418 0. 2.373 .519 0.434 0.583 0. 0.467 0..50 .72 ..466 0.483 0.470 .90 1. 1.530 0.573 0.434 0..269 0.305 0.459 0.98 –1.608 0.336 0. 2.344 0..74 2.66 0.15 .448 0..46 1.. 0. 0.491 0.534 0.485 0.584 0.50 1..405 0..346 0.340 0.331 0.422 0.547 0.301 0..98 –0.472 0.454 0.83 1.25 0..54 .515 0..504 0.334 0.534 0.18 .355 0.414 0.429 0.360 .312 .526 0..77 ..532 0.85 1.352 0.table 2  Human Development Index trends.538 0..58 2.179 0.316 0.363 0.510 .96 1.. 0.612 0.432 0.597 0..461 0.445 0.58 0.. 0..590 0. 0.400 0. 2.11 2.447 0.376 0.236 .23 .431 0.295 0.355 0.532 0. 0. 0. 1. 0.327 0.429 0.. .301 0.94 .90 .491 0.88 1.50 . 0.463 0.56 .92 0.429 0.476 0.503 0.431 0.382 0.461 0.371 ..63 . 0..312 0.46 3..463 0.. 0.429 0. . 1.286 0.579 0.. 0.482 0.57 2..467 0.278 0..19 2.439 0.453 0.467 0.322 0.71 1.. 1.71 .428 0.525 0.

.694 .633 0.605 c 0..pdf for details on how the HDI is calculated. 0.555 0.514 0. .95 1.464 0. .600 .67 1. ...77 0..622 0. .432 0... 0..29 1.472 0..15 0.574 0.93 1.743 0.867 0.645 0. ....481 0.701 c 0. ..771 0.758 0..421 0. 0.43 0..73 0. . .466 0. Democratic People’s Rep....817 0.442 0..648 0.773 0. .59 0. . . .902 0. .405 0.708 0.. .... .07 1. . ..623 0.905 0. . . .31 0.571 c 0.. ..64 . . Columns 9–14: Calculated based on HDI values in the relevant year.401 0. ... .502 c 0.443 0..695 0. .. .769 0.475 0.21 1.50 0.41 1..600 c 0. .. ..56 0...739 0.. Table 2  Human Development Index trends.589 0. . 0. . .736 0.94 1..757 0. .678 .651 c 0. .51 0. . . . .. .. ..82 1. .531 0. .683 0.896 0.609 0...75 0... .419 c 0.. .36 0. .58 1. . . . — — — — — — — — — — — — — ...636 0.446 0.43 1. UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2012)..666 .. . .undp.. 0.631 0.656 c 0. 0..... .449 0.904 0.725 0.91 0. ...44 1. .678 0. .. .387 0.. .753 0. 0.80 1.366 0. .83 1... . Average annual HDI growth: A smoothed annualized growth of the HDI in a given period calculated as the annual compound growth rate.315 0.449 0.. .561 c ... . knowledge and a decent standard of living..432 c 0.741 0.58 0. .583 0.. . See Technical note 1 at http://hdr. .40 0.... . . .673 0.68 NOTES a A positive value indicates an improvement in rank. . .74 0. . World Bank (2012a) and IMF (2012).468 0.648 0. .56 1.290 c 0..47 1.81 1. . .650 0.22 0.623 0. .. .658 0.70 0.. ...738 0.461 0.722 0. .640 0...639 . ..709 0.05 1.. .org/ en/media/HDR_2013_EN_TechNotes..470 0.549 0..51 0. c Based on fewer than half the countries in the group or region.72 1. .70 0.. 0...558 0..367 0. 0.. of Marshall Islands Monaco Nauru San Marino Somalia South Sudan Tuvalu Human Development Index groups Very high human development High human development Medium human development Low human development Regions Arab States East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Least developed countries Small island developing states World . . . 1980–2012 | 151 ...889 0. .38 1.... . .683 0. b The substantial change in rank is due to an updated International Monetary Fund estimate of Libya’s GDP growth in 2011. ..60 1.. .649 0.690 . ... ...77 . .647 0.755 0.. ...Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World Human Development Index (HDI) Value HDI rank 1980 1990 2000 2005 2007 2010 2011 2012 HDI rank Change 2007–2012a a Average annual HDI growth (%) 2011–2012 1980/1990 1990/2000 2000/2010 2000/2012 Other countries or territories Korea.327 c 0.418 0..443 0.692 .34 1.530 c 0.552 0.12 0.. ..350 0.766 0. .424 0. .626 0.65 0..... DEFINITIONS Human Development Index (HDI): A composite index measuring average achievement in three basic dimensions of human development—a long and healthy life.58 1. — — — — — — — — — — — — — .. 0.68 .357 0.385 0. . .19 0.32 0.. Barro and Lee (2011). . ..74 1..652 0.. .62 0. 0.517 0. . MAIN DATA SOURCES Columns 1–8: HDRO calculations based on data from UNDESA (2011).. 0..584 0.

. 0.769 . 40.9 31.928 0...0 ..882 0.2 34..9 19.930 ....758 . 5.741 . Republic of 13 Hong Kong.903 0. 0.879 0.838 .751 0.825 0.0 28.. .897 0..3 .3 Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index Human Development Index (HDI) Value Value 2012 Inequality-adjusted HDI (IHDI) Overall loss (%) 2012 Difference from HDI ranka 2012 Inequality-adjusted life expectancy index Value 2012 Loss (%) 2012 Inequality-adjusted education index Value 2012b Loss (%) 2012 Inequality-adjusted income index Value 2012b Loss (%) 2012 2000–2010c 2000–2010c Quintile Income Gini income ratio coefficient Table HDI rank 2012 Very high human development 1 Norway 2 Australia 3 United States 4 Netherlands 5 Germany 6 New Zealand 7 Ireland 7 Sweden 9 Switzerland 10 Japan 11 Canada 12 Korea. 0.. 6..832 0..856 . 0. 17.837 0.2 14..3 .8 . 0.0 4.788 0.4 .856 . 12. 7.540 0..873 0.860 0. . .3 18.. 0.839 0.779 0.7 6.431 12.0 .9 1.3 11.0 4. 13.5 6.881 0.894 0.889 0.0 . 0.683 .727 0. 40. 34. 0.0 11.3 .5 3. 32. 9.. 10.7 4.2 5.830 . .7 .6 13.7 11.776 0. 17..8 6. 2. .5 5. 0.764 0..0 33.634 0..893 0. 0.4 .. 13.7 9. 0.9 7..0 6.791 0. 0.0 6.772 0.673 0.4 11. 0. –4 –18 .2 .2 3.909 0.1 31.1 20.. .658 .. 39..1 3.803 ..2 8. ..1 6.883 0.6 44.679 .0 10.687 0..778 .920 0.812 0. 8.919 0. 3 .837 .919 0.1 . 0.776 0.4 ..662 0.815 0.9 4. 0. 0. .8 5.6 11.. 15.712 0.609 2. 5.5 ..4 6.6 7.3 . 13.9 3.3 4. 3.7 10.803 0..898 0.821 0.1 11... 5.4 9..9 6. 0.790 0.846 0.....806 0. 0.3 5.9 34.729 0.0 23.942 0.1 34.6 16.906 0.. 2 6 ...1 27.3 16.840 0.681 0.682 0. . ..1 .7 11..892 0..9 19.. .916 0..815 0.8 . 7. 34. 0..814 0.488 0.8 2. .8 .4 10.780 0.9 10.7 16. 17.834 0.766 0.965 0. 9..845 0.5 .2 . 11.9 4. –4 3 . –3 . 0.718 0. .935 0. . ..767 0.. . 0...915 0.2 33.899 0.895 0.7 . 28.6 7.6 3. 3. .794 0.4 2...811 0. 13..2 ..854 ..788 .0 . China (SAR) 13 Iceland 15 Denmark 16 Israel 17 Belgium 18 Austria 18 Singapore 20 France 21 Finland 21 Slovenia 23 Spain 24 Liechtenstein 25 Italy 26 Luxembourg 26 United Kingdom 28 Czech Republic 29 Greece 30 Brunei Darussalam 31 Cyprus 32 Malta 33 Andorra 33 Estonia 35 Slovakia 36 Qatar 37 Hungary 38 Barbados 39 Poland 40 Chile 41 Lithuania 41 United Arab Emirates 43 Portugal 44 Latvia 45 Argentina 46 Seychelles 47 Croatia High human development 48 Bahrain 49 Bahamas 50 Belarus 51 Uruguay 52 Montenegro 52 Palau 54 Kuwait 55 Russian Federation 56 Romania 57 Bulgaria 57 Saudi Arabia 59 Cuba 59 Panama 0..797 0.704 .3 2.5 4.4 .894 0. 0 3 1 . .8 4.709 0.727 0. 0 –10 –1 .. 6..893 ....8 9..5 .0 .5 .720 0..856 . 0.0 5. .818 0. 9. 4..6 ... 5.3 4..5 .854 0.818 0..846 0.8 0...1 .893 0.700 0.605 .. –4 4 2 9 –3 .892 0.756 0.9 7..6 9.. 0.921 0.0 ..689 0. . .703 .627 0.836 0.. 0.760 .5 .5 . 5..819 0.8 . ...6 24.2 1..9 7. 4..6 4.904 0.905 0.588 6... 0. . 0..0 5. .911 0. 20. .2 2.659 .729 0.906 0.716 ...6 0 0 –13 0 0 .1 d 12.2 .859 0.. 0..726 0..5 .5 . 16..900 0.9 4.4 7..901 0. –2 6 7 –1 .955 0. 0.845 0.5 3..6 . .672 0.6 4...848 0. 13.592 .583 0. .3 5. 27..760 .968 0. 9.5 .916 0.759 ..2 4. 7.831 0. 0. 17. 3.4 3..7 .7 7.0 6.5 6.619 0.8 6...1 7. .1 . 0.8 20.. 11. .0 41.8 11.937 0.9 4..733 . 8..653 .825 0..0 5.9 .9 .9 152 | Human Development Report 2013 . 6..915 0.4 12.760 . .5 13..689 0.6 .740 0.937 0...945 0.4 3. 0. .636 0.3 .8 16.2 45.647 0. . 12...903 0..965 0.4 6..5 65.6 1..6 2..916 0.895 0.487 .4 3.7 5..7 .826 0.813 0..1 . 12.3 4.913 0.7 . 6.822 0.757 0.698 0.767 0..887 0.8 33. . . 0.9 .770 0.6 .7 .1 18.600 .3 .3 4.909 0.0 26..891 0.2 11.3 4.863 0. 6.6 .. 36.... 8..9 12.6 .3 .. 11. 0. 0.2 5.2 . 0..3 3.737 0.796 .9 4.2 7.729 0.814 0.3 13.740 0.885 0.2 12. ..7 .783 0.834 0.9 7.2 15.848 0.1 52.8 5. 3.819 0.. 2..3 8.912 0. ..727 .937 0.8 4. 0. 5. .5 4.933 0.796 .771 .810 0. 7.913 0..840 0. 1 –1 –8 ...5 8.878 0.813 0.8 10. . 40...875 0.790 0.941 0.782 0.907 0.2 10..0 30.3 25..805 0.857 0..1 .644 ...9 4.938 0. 0.7 4.. 26.760 .807 0.786 0. 2 5 ...2 3.. 0. ...816 0.862 0..962 0..537 ..3 .806 0.4 7. 5.3 4..793 0...7 5. .0 5.0 6.792 0.3 3. 6.9 22.4 0.. 0.9 12.3 11.3 6. 0.1 37.850 0.. 4.2 . 0.1 . 24.3 5.8 .754 0. 0.8 2. 0.8 .732 0.930 0.821 0.7 18..1 9.... . 3 3 –8 –1 3 . 51..871 0.1 .1 5.692 .4 .. 17.796 0..5 ..930 0.521 0.875 0.4 4.935 0. 0.4 .913 0. ..859 0.874 0..901 0. 6. 34.702 .3 30.0 29.6 13.817 ..915 0..627 0. .9 3...823 .847 0.864 0. . 36.. 3 –4 8 ..6 .2 ..784 0. 27. ..8 11.1 30.780 0..897 0.776 3. ..825 0.9 12..3 14.. .664 0.2 6.788 0. ..782 0.840 0.1 4..683 .2 6...855 0.8 3.770 0.5 5. –15 0.6 1.719 0.927 . . 18.3 9.4 ..1 25..3 2.791 0.1 .8 .2 25.4 .. 0.8 10. 0.5 . 36.9 19.849 . 6.6 12.802 0. .. 10.

2 12. 27. 0.567 0..5 . 24.1 .6 37.4 ..549 .510 .2 5. .458 0.3 11..4 14.720 0..3 . 0..9 ...526 0. 19.. .424 0..1 18. .393 . .602 0. Bolivarian Republic of 72 Dominica 72 Georgia 72 Lebanon 72 Saint Kitts and Nevis 76 Iran.784 0.634 0.731 0.2 20.0 20.2 16..9 40..0 Table 3  Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index | 153 . .. 6.. ...9 .649 .7 35.0 55.727 0. 0.722 0..730 0.385 .660 0..3 14.0 36.524 0.732 0..6 9..760 0.710 0.8 9..713 0.. 9.735 ..3 –12 –10 .745 0.8 22.694 0...7 .543 . .2 15.8 .463 0. ..710 0..534 0.801 0. 47.8 6.754 .814 0.9 15..2 27. . 15. 0.7 40.1 31.749 0.9 30.. 0.6 .631 0. 0.411 0.0 30..3 6.. 5.606 ..503 0.. 0. 0.5 .7 30..7 9.709 .669 0.724 0. 0.1 ..781 0.3 .618 0. 46.733 0. 0. 0..693 0. Federated States of 118 Guyana 119 Botswana 120 Honduras 121 Indonesia 0. 34.5 9.4 31.648 0.2 26.. 40. –2 –9 .680 0.728 0. 0. .680 0.639 0.1 .6 19..7 . 0.5 12.729 0.9 ..4 21.8 22.5 14.. 24.461 .777 0.662 0.2 .4 13.718 0.537 0.3 . 0.603 .489 0. ..3 27.1 6.428 0. 7. 0..652 0..808 0.2 8..8 20.3 11..0 34..335 0. 8. . .1 7.706 0. .0 .570 0.3 44. . .6 13.458 .1 13.670 0.3 48.4 .740 0.7 9. 0.575 .9 ..2 ..3 17.. 0.1 18.5 27. –15 .6 6. . 38.. –7 18 4 13 3 .372 .698 0.... –3 3 0 –17 .769 0. .3 56.654 0.... Islamic Republic of 77 Peru 78 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 78 Ukraine 80 Mauritius 81 Bosnia and Herzegovina 82 Azerbaijan 83 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 84 Oman 85 Brazil 85 Jamaica 87 Armenia 88 Saint Lucia 89 Ecuador 90 Turkey 91 Colombia 92 Sri Lanka 93 Algeria 94 Tunisia Medium human development 95 Tonga 96 Belize 96 Dominican Republic 96 Fiji 96 Samoa 100 Jordan 101 China 102 Turkmenistan 103 Thailand 104 Maldives 105 Suriname 106 Gabon 107 El Salvador 108 Bolivia.624 0.3 4.0 ..1 12. 26. 0.735 0.5 18.654 0.561 0.7 6.489 0. ..5 26..4 21.710 0. 29..4 23. 0....9 .8 ..725 0.9 11. 0...769 0.645 0..8 .782 0...9 26..8 . . 29.798 0..578 0.660 0...2 .. State of 111 Paraguay 112 Egypt 113 Moldova..0 41. 0. 15.7 .550 0. .652 10.9 18.541 0.8 26.5 . 8 .504 0.745 0.752 0.584 0.688 0.645 0.564 0.3 13.. 39.702 0. .2 21. 16.620 .786 0.8 0.696 .5 52. .5 44. 0.719 0.2 11.560 0. –10 2 13 5 11 11 .5 7.690 0... 27..725 0.. 0. 10.. 3.5 35.4 0.2 33.9 17.5 .7 11. 11.. .0 19.712 0.518 0.415 0.0 37.5 3.6 14.1 47.5 26. 22...8 15. 12.0 34.636 0..717 0.. . 4.5 .568 0.7 24. .434 0...2 32. .6 8.5 1. 19.773 0.8 13..7 .521 0.. .2 23.. 2 .697 .1 29.4 27.1 6. 16.652 0.745 0. 0.5 21...1 27. .335 0.0 27.748 0.5 5.9 15...687 0..1 43..587 0. 10. 37.6 4. ..760 0...793 0.718 ...8 17.. –8 –1 –11 11 .607 .8 61.. 0.3 10. .754 0.672 0.514 23.5 20..8 13.668 0.702 0.754 0.4 16.3 10..2 24.0 13. ...0 19.623 0. 21. .6 9.491 0...6 12..6 .. 24. 7.515 .3 15.1 17.529 0.5 . 6. .452 0. 8.4 14.644 0.9 11.1 .426 0. . .650 . 7.7 8. 32.9 7. .556 0.3 .. 33.3 25.3 . 35. .543 0. 25. 25.4 ..3 14.455 .593 0.797 0.670 0.6 13.773 0.538 0.294 0..3 24.3 18.9 . 41.715 0.6 3.3 8. .768 0.2 20.6 16. .531 0.498 . .4 .524 0..2 .4 . 27.Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World Human Development Index (HDI) Value HDI rank 2012 Value 2012 Inequality-adjusted HDI (IHDI) Overall loss (%) 2012 Difference from HDI ranka 2012 Inequality-adjusted life expectancy index Value 2012 Loss (%) 2012 Inequality-adjusted education index Value 2012b Loss (%) 2012 Inequality-adjusted income index Value 2012b Loss (%) 2012 Quintile Income Gini income ratio coefficient 2000–2010c 2000–2010c 61 Mexico 62 Costa Rica 63 Grenada 64 Libya 64 Malaysia 64 Serbia 67 Antigua and Barbuda 67 Trinidad and Tobago 69 Kazakhstan 70 Albania 71 Venezuela.5 5...553 0...531 .636 0.4 19. –3 3 0.8 14...374 0. . 0.3 36. . .548 0.712 0.1 7.3 4.410 . .0 13.760 0.725 0. .740 0.409 0.4 30. 36. . 0.732 0. 5 0 . 24..731 0..2 14.7 10.. 11.654 0...6 20.390 0..8 13...8 12. .. 41. 54.775 0.429 0.611 0.4 14.481 .. Republic of 114 Philippines 114 Uzbekistan 116 Syrian Arab Republic 117 Micronesia.9 .4 42. 38. 35.632 0..1 11.....568 ..0 13. .2 42.629 0.2 19.699 0.7 9. .6 . 0.625 0. .0 23. .2 5. 40.834 0.3 ..737 0.. –12 2 13 .9 . 21.741 0.8 33.519 0. 0. .703 0. .794 0.375 0. 0.459 21.661 .8 9.5 .510 ..770 0.4 . 0.640 0...444 .3 50..618 .4 15...5 9.. 57.. . 28.514 .3 22.6 34.7 5. ..394 0..8 9.724 0.523 0.745 0.8 .8 17.499 0.430 .. Plurinational State of 108 Mongolia 110 Palestine.5 30.8 .. 0. .734 0.4 5. 0.4 . .5 ...537 0...464 . . 0.... 9.6 .5 44.601 .743 0.. .3 39..1 13.1 13.8 10.7 ..742 0..862 0..631 0.3 ... 25.675 0. . .526 0. 49..559 . .5 11.9 6.5 .8 . 18.3 32.699 0.2 17.9 10.5 48.700 0..505 0.5 .675 0. .1 10. 0.. . 0. 0 –8 –2 6 –11 –12 13 .. .3 8.1 14..5 .769 0.503 0.1 13. . 20.702 0.413 0.0 7.9 .650 0.3 6..730 0. ..1 ..2 15.669 0. 0.7 45. 15.551 0.366 0...0 22.462 0.1 ...708 0.681 0.591 0.777 0.9 ..621 0..702 0.2 13.429 0.683 0.6 19.684 0.2 5...612 0.444 0..1 13.4 10... .. 0.788 .9 16.9 20... .1 48. . . 0.799 0.0 43.442 0.3 .2 4.3 14.676 0. 22..2 25.453 35.8 15.8 .. 41.515 0.347 0.571 . 21. .

7 46.205 0.1 27.. 34.456 0.4 31.2 12.3 33.145 0.330 0.7 32.534 0.286 0.3 38.2 25..498 0.8 19.1 33. 0. 44. .9 33.0 29..1 51.469 0. 6...303 .6 63.458 0. 31.3 41.182 0..8 32.409 0. 5.0 ...405 0.1 30.3 30.476 0.418 0.358 0. 0.247 0.9 36.548 0.581 0.7 39. 0 –1 3 6 –7 3 –2 1 .3 .380 0. .590 0.3 .448 0.241 0.1 18.430 0. 36.8 34.3 39.1 15. 31.303 0..374 0.6 39.1 13. 0.2 .287 ..251 .1 4.2 27.9 50.686 0.. 0. 33.3 . 42. 5 1 0 .589 0.2 40.8 30.307 0.. 42.346 0.310 0.0 19.4 37. 15.6 6.9 .1 35.351 0.. 37.6 36.392 0.1 ..334 ..189 0.735 0..6 27.7 24.303 .. 23.9 39..0 35. 33.1 30.242 0.225 0..391 0.1 . 0.4 30....330 0.243 0.374 0.325 0.331 0.519 0.659 0..7 20.5 27.. 0.7 27.2 47. 0..576 0.358 0.623 0.7 16.9 40. .270 0. 0.8 7.280 0..3 45. 0.6 42.202 0.8 11. . 0 –2 .554 0..6 7.440 0.538 0.5 64.234 0.755 0.402 0..483 0.3 46.301 0.280 0.507 0..1 .0 .346 ..3 39.6 50.746 0.364 0.6 48.3 54.1 37. 0.304 0. .1 28.383 0.0 35.353 0.626 0.1 .4 47.2 . 32.467 0. 0..6 .2 7.2 19.8 33.383 0. –1 6 –3 ..5 26.171 ..434 0.629 0..6 23.6 32.516 0.344 .414 0.259 0. 20.6 23.352 0. 28.515 0..508 0.5 40..306 . 0.4 41.368 . –1 1 5 –13 2 1 .7 8.568 0. 0.250 0.3 46.5 55.217 0.0 5.3 40. 0.445 0. .210 . 0..6 .5 12.434 0.. 23...4 27.0 4.9 21.318 0.1 42.2 34.525 0.309 .622 0.1 40.0 25.7 11. 0.6 4.6 53.305 0..549 0.191 0..263 0. 35.1 28. 24.536 0.0 . . 28.0 37.3 45.0 26.1 47.537 0...5 42.317 0..404 0..356 0.5 32.6 30. 36.265 . 33.5 .0 34..386 0.9 . 0.0 47.285 0.9 30.384 .397 0.4 43.1 45.346 0. 0. .296 0..4 68.5 33.439 0.8 .2 29.9 30.3 41.351 0.9 16. .table 3  Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index Human Development Index (HDI) Value HDI rank 2012 Value 2012 Inequality-adjusted HDI (IHDI) Overall loss (%) 2012 Difference from HDI ranka 2012 Inequality-adjusted life expectancy index Value 2012 Loss (%) 2012 Inequality-adjusted education index Value 2012b Loss (%) 2012 Inequality-adjusted income index Value 2012b Loss (%) 2012 Quintile Income Gini income ratio coefficient 2000–2010c 2000–2010c 121 Kiribati 121 South Africa 124 Vanuatu 125 Kyrgyzstan 125 Tajikistan 127 Viet Nam 128 Namibia 129 Nicaragua 130 Morocco 131 Iraq 132 Cape Verde 133 Guatemala 134 Timor-Leste 135 Ghana 136 Equatorial Guinea 136 India 138 Cambodia 138 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 140 Bhutan 141 Swaziland Low human development 142 Congo 143 Solomon Islands 144 Sao Tome and Principe 145 Kenya 146 Bangladesh 146 Pakistan 148 Angola 149 Myanmar 150 Cameroon 151 Madagascar 152 Tanzania.558 .0 11. 0. 42.432 0..9 .. 17.429 0.217 0. .9 42.8 47.8 .471 0.0 20.4 37.285 .8 40.188 .3 37..352 0. 0..415 .7 5.508 0. –3 –3 ..8 .470 0.1 28.459 0.7 59.2 23.8 27.3 . 35.0 6.312 0.4 39.3 19.3 25. 20.2 13.6 23.487 0..1 20. . 41. 42.4 33...515 0.5 47.374 0.342 0.379 0.291 0.531 0.7 .9 40.0 ...5 17.389 0...6 46..365 .8 .137 0.4 7.367 0.2 35.4 30.257 0. 17.6 12. 43.9 9..9 33.0 4..0 30.0 58.9 24.9 6. 38. 36.3 6.371 0..283 0.8 35.463 0.9 44.. 0.7 38.6 19.350 0.4 4.6 7. 35..287 0. 0.296 0.166 ..541 0.430 .1 5.269 0.2 25..2 .327 0.311 0..0 .674 0.8 35.525 0.4 .344 0.352 .599 0.7 .359 0.9 50.212 .4 37..0 32.617 0.461 0.5 .681 0.602 0. 0.432 0.0 ..355 0.5 31.251 0..7 18. 1 –2 5 2 –12 .0 .6 47.269 .162 .213 0.390 0..622 0..315 0.335 0.4 28.1 41. 0.6 12.185 0...6 12.297 0.6 24.9 36.543 0.285 .466 0.461 0...622 0.586 0.2 27..232 ..434 0.409 0.622 0.495 0...402 0.8 20.508 0.558 0..3 26.4 .7 4.414 0. 4.1 41....2 36. 0.436 0.295 0. .221 0.0 30.6 e 21.2 . .9 .6 8.379 0. 38.8 14. 31..311 0.8 20...595 0. 0.488 0.3 31.5 34.. .8 25.264 0.1 25. 0.2 44. .2 34.2 30. .286 . 29.9 31.7 36.0 20.4 30.271 0.346 0.252 0.1 23..4 45.6 30. 0.5 29.8 7.376 0. 5..6 9.3 . .4 .0 43.223 0.2 30. 4.3 12.606 0. .. 0.355 0. 0.343 0.9 38. .343 0.329 0.9 33. 8 2 14 –16 1 0 ...9 34..456 0.0 17.450 0. 0.4 56.344 0.3 7.209 .0 154 | Human Development Report 2013 . 25. United Republic of 153 Nigeria 154 Senegal 155 Mauritania 156 Papua New Guinea 157 Nepal 158 Lesotho 159 Togo 160 Yemen 161 Haiti 161 Uganda 163 Zambia 164 Djibouti 165 Gambia 166 Benin 167 Rwanda 168 Côte d’Ivoire 169 Comoros 170 Malawi 171 Sudan 172 Zimbabwe 173 Ethiopia 174 Liberia 175 Afghanistan 176 Guinea-Bissau 177 Sierra Leone 178 Burundi 178 Guinea 180 Central African Republic 181 Eritrea 182 Mali 0..7 28.1 .372 0.444 0.7 36.374 0. .485 0.. .251 0.5 34.276 0.8 38.2 . ..7 6. 10.503 0.447 0..426 0.6 35.9 .396 0.6 6. 33.471 0.0 50.5 21.3 47.3 45..7 11.. .4 15.284 0..225 0.8 39. 0.224 0.9 6..336 0.4 .8 40..608 0..404 0.228 0.2 32. 6.241 0.8 52.6 .8 33.2 44.9 8.0 5.230 0.8 33.176 . 0.3 43.5 49...8 21.7 .7 33.440 0.9 36.9 35.485 0.4 43.2 33..379 . 29.388 0.348 . 63.0 17.197 0.554 0.543 0.222 . 32.8 47...4 21.267 0. –3 –3 –3 .0 ..3 18.9 29.6 40.5 31..199 0.7 20. 19. 6.210 .3 ...273 0.3 4.528 0.9 43.229 0.361 0.0 45. .4 .3 40. .179 0..6 42.629 0.4 14.3 20. 50.3 37.326 0.3 .8 38.268 .156 0.288 0.213 0.5 45..264 0.269 0.3 .357 0. 0.8 27..3 41. 7 ..530 0.7 32.591 0.0 10.2 17.6 .6 40.. 1 3 4 8 –3 1 .

.531 0..406 0..683 0. .3 38..undp.6 19. .7 16.897 0. . Column 5: Calculated based on abridged life tables from UNDESA (2011)..550 0.558 0.466 0. Quintile income ratio: Ratio of the average income of the richest 20% of the population to the average income of the poorest 20% of the population. Column 4: Calculated based on data in column 2 and recalculated HDI ranks for countries with the IHDI. f Based on simulated income distribution from the 2009 Demographic and Health Survey.. 0. .6 21.182 0.pdf for details on how the HDI is calculated.453 36...303 0.694 0. . . Column 2: Calculated as the geometric mean of the values in columns 5. . Inequality-adjusted education index: The HDI education index adjusted for inequality in distribution of years of schooling based on data from household surveys listed in Main data sources..4 27..688 0. Column 8: Calculated based on data in column 7 and the unadjusted education index.0 32.5 27..200 .8 28..335 0..308 0. ..2 16. Democratic People’s Rep. 19. .304 . ..8 39. . . .538 0.240 0. . — — — — — — — — — — — — — 39. UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2012).412 0. In the 2011 Human Development Report inequality in consumption was based on the 2002–2003 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey.0 0.5 29. ..7 39.317 .7 52.226 0. Barro and Lee (2011). 0.205 0.. .4 26. .2 23.594 0.2 38. .395 0. . 6. .2 40. .744 0.669 0.. Inequality-adjusted life expectancy index: The HDI life expectancy index adjusted for inequality in distribution of expected length of life based on data from life tables listed in Main data sources. .226 0... . .1 32. DEFINITIONS Human Development Index (HDI): A composite index measuring average achievement in three basic dimensions of human development—a long and healthy life..716 0.5 23.undp.537 0. A value of 0 represents absolute equality. e Based on simulated income distribution from the 2007 Demographic and Health Survey.183 0.2 31.0 40.9 .633 0.Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World Human Development Index (HDI) Value HDI rank 2012 Value 2012 Inequality-adjusted HDI (IHDI) Overall loss (%) 2012 Difference from HDI ranka 2012 Inequality-adjusted life expectancy index Value 2012 Loss (%) 2012 Inequality-adjusted education index Value 2012b Loss (%) 2012 Inequality-adjusted income index Value 2012b Loss (%) 2012 Quintile Income Gini income ratio coefficient 2000–2010c 2000–2010c 183 Burkina Faso 184 Chad 185 Mozambique 186 Congo.905 0.. ..9 30. a value of 100 absolute inequality..459 0.... .5 . c Data refer to the most recent year available during the period specified. .8 45.455 0.3 36. . World Bank (2012a) and IMF (2012)..672 0.4 21. MAIN DATA SOURCES Column 1: HDRO calculations based on data from UNDESA (2011). . See Technical note 1 at http://hdr.7 25.295 0...3 4 –1 5 –1 0 . Income Gini coefficient: Measure of the deviation of the distribution of income (or consumption) among individuals or households within a country from a perfectly equal distribution.304 0. 7 and 9 using the methodology in Technical note 2. ... ..0 39.343 0. .. ..org/ en/media/HDR_2013_EN_TechNotes.2 23. .329 0.2 43.249 0. .8 17. Column 3: Calculated based on data in columns 1 and 2. 10.3 12.1 35. .7 44.. b The list of surveys used to estimate inequalities is available at http://hdr.. .. ..203 0.org/en/media/HDR_2013_ EN_TechNotes..267 0.6 24.5 25....395 0.2 39.4 19. See Technical note 2 at http://hdr.. ..285 0..0 0.851 0..0 42.4 18.532 34. ..2 30.0 37.736 0.287 0. ..6 17.281 0.5 . 0.0 42.638 41.9 30. .236 . In the 2011 Human Development Report inequality in consumption was based on the 2003 National Household Survey of Living Conditions..421 0. Columns 11 and 12: World Bank (2012a). 5.7 29.475 0. ...4 21.771 0. of Marshall Islands Monaco Nauru San Marino Somalia South Sudan Tuvalu Human Development Index groups Very high human development High human development Medium human development Low human development Regions Arab States East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Least developed countries Small island developing states World 0. World Bank (2012b). .107 ..org. Eurostat (2012).. .. . UNICEF Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys for 2002–2012 and ICF Macro (2012) using the methodology in Technical note 2. .4 34.. .246 0..395 0.8 9.652 0.3 . .532 0.... Columns 7 and 9: Calculated based on data from LIS (2012).. .....500 0.. ..226 0.486 0. knowledge and a decent standard of living..9 25.8 19. .307 0. Overall loss: The loss in potential human development due to inequality.713 0.1 37. .7 14. 45.0 f 36.6 .640 0. .9 34..6 .2 12.....4 9. .633 0. ... . calculated as the percentage difference between the HDI and the IHDI.3 35. . In the 2011 Human Development Report income inequality was based on the 2005 American Community Survey (from the World Bank’s International Income Distribution Database).2 19. 0. Column 6: Calculated based on data in column 5 and the unadjusted life expectancy index.pdf for details on how the IHDI is calculated. Inequality-adjusted HDI (IHDI): HDI value adjusted for inequalities in the three basic dimensions of human development....125 0.8 50.5 7. 0.8 20.807 0..5 15. Table 3  Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index | 155 ..9 10.310 0.. . — — — — — — — — — — — — — 0.3 5. . d Based on the 2010 Current Population Survey (from the Luxembourg Income Study database)..0 34. . .220 0. . Inequality-adjusted income index: The HDI income index adjusted for inequality in income distribution based on data from household surveys listed in Main data sources. . ...108 0.2 11.286 0.2 .0 7..449 0.456 0.. .. .7 13.758 0. ..485 0. .. .126 0.522 23. . The two sources seem to be inconsistent.340 0.711 0. . ..480 0.6 22..0 35.648 0.. .592 0.309 0. . Democratic Republic of the 186 Niger Other countries or territories Korea. .. — — — — — — — — — — — — — NOTES a Based on countries for which the Inequalityadjusted Human Development Index is calculated.7 39.undp. Column 10: Calculated based on data in column 9 and the unadjusted income index.. .2 33.370 0.1 27..436 0.327 0.602 0.320 0. . .741 0. . ..

59. 10 3 25 12 14 13 9 6 8 15 .2 g 78.7 23.089 0.6 70.4 69.219 0.1 g 40.119 0.115 0.6 99.3 75. 4 20 12 5 3 24 10 8 .6 8.7 99.6 g 71.8 28.7 25.0 16.3 94.1 71.5 51.9 6.6 57.3 0.6 70.8 14.2 9.9 93.2 17.8 43.1 93.5 28.6 96.1 55.4 . 0.6 99.098 0. 82.6 65.9 g 63..0 97.7 93. 0.9 84.1 20..0 76.5 25.5 11.3 53..6 72..3 g 80.7 15.2 63.316 .7 87..7 12.5 68. .3 100.075 0.0 99.9 81.. 69 .8 .9 49.2 .3 4.0 77.7 8.7 58. Republic of 13 Hong Kong.8 13.2 28.0 79..4 71.114 0.1 69.057 0.9 82..7 53.1 78.3 66.367 .0 21.3 20.3 49. China (SAR) 13 Iceland 15 Denmark 16 Israel 17 Belgium 18 Austria 18 Singapore 20 France 21 Finland 21 Slovenia 23 Spain 24 Liechtenstein 25 Italy 26 Luxembourg 26 United Kingdom 28 Czech Republic 29 Greece 30 Brunei Darussalam 31 Cyprus 32 Malta 33 Andorra 33 Estonia 35 Slovakia 36 Qatar 37 Hungary 38 Barbados 39 Poland 40 Chile 41 Lithuania 41 United Arab Emirates 43 Portugal 44 Latvia 45 Argentina 46 Seychelles 47 Croatia High human development 48 Bahrain 49 Bahamas 50 Belarus 51 Uruguay 52 Montenegro 52 Palau 54 Kuwait 55 Russian Federation 56 Romania 57 Bulgaria 57 Saudi Arabia 59 Cuba 59 Panama 5 17 42 1 6 31 19 2 3 21 18 27 .4 100.2 19.8 7..1 61.0 49.2 64.083 0.000 live births) 2010 Adolescent fertility rateb (births per 1.1 54.1 99.3 68.4 32.2 g 89.5 .1 h 45.3 74.360 0.0 58.9 49.153 . 17 20 47 4 29 8 .380 .1 67..5 82.4 76.4 60.8 19.6 17.7 100. 50.6 29..0 85.6 21.075 0..0 g 100.8 32.236 .6 97.3 82.7 71.2 11.6 61.8 64. 29 32 117 42 61 24 66 28 40 16 36 71 .2 54.6 82..5 12.2 55.7 6.7 43. 53..274 0.0 37.9 28.9 .7 g 61.9 75. 2 6 7 21 51 5 25 8 12 8 34 77 .1 9.9 100.4 90.8 66.9 56..9 92.4 29..122 0.000 women ages 15–19) 2012d Seats in national parliamentc Population with at least secondary education (% ages 25 and older) (% female) 2012 Female 2006–2010e Male 2006–2010e Labour force participation rate (% ages 15 and older) Female 2011 Male 2011 Rank HDI rank 2012 Value 2012 Very high human development 1 Norway 2 Australia 3 United States 4 Netherlands 5 Germany 6 New Zealand 7 Ireland 7 Sweden 9 Switzerland 10 Japan 11 Canada 12 Korea.9 57.0 g 66.7 26.5 71.101 0.2 9.5 94.2 47.4 85.6 5.3 70.094 0.9 64. 37.2 .5 59.0 71.2 65.. 0.5 10.0 94.2 56.1 96.4 4.682 0.3 g 100.6 67.0 20.5 74.7 92.5 96.0 9.0 70..8 23.1 43.179 0. 14 34 27 11 24 73 92 7.9 50..7 14.136 .8 55.7 91.1 51.4 69.2 55.5 g 83.205 0.4 56.3 17.1 h 8.0 39.2 94.4 28.3 g 40.256 0..1 62.4 g 68.4 61.8 12.8 74.8 16.5 67.5 68.2 16.6 52. 22 39 .1 68.5 156 | Human Development Report 2013 .0 4. 0.7 29.3 50.5 55.9 24. 78.8 18.3 74.8 57..4 12.7 20.5 57..5 56.171 0.2 68.5 58.157 0..140 0.0 19.6 40. 5 12 7 8 4 3 8 5 12 6 ..1 87.343 0.3 6.546 0. 0.1 14.144 0. 56.9 6.7 50.4 .2 58.103 .0 ..6 44.8 36.158 0.7 73.9 g 80..2 22.8 17.5 94.0 91.1 21.0 78.6 76.7 5.3 12.4 12.5 13.6 12.3 62.7 6. .327 0.216 0.7 g 76.7 23.9 73.312 0.7 87.8 12.8 0.8 18.6 22.3 5.3 g 73.0 14.1 80.0 15.0 f 37.6 g 99.2 51.102 0.4 g 60.4 g 74.3 48.503 7 7 21 6 7 15 6 4 8 5 12 16 .2 35..2 51.055 0.0 61.7 66.8 6.045 0.9 19.9 g 66.8 52.2 98.1 75..5 95.4 91.241 0.5 g 76.4 g 98.1 67.8 57.6 49. 68..2 8.0 11.0 22.1 43.9 53. 43. 59.2 63.1 95.7 .131 0.4 g 87.7 43. 39.7 39.1 62.0 71..6 .8 54. 10.1 72.3 71.3 49.3 90.8 4.8 48..121 0.1 78.2 82.4 g 91.6 .1 69.4 95. 11 26 34 20 23 .0 67.5 27.256 0. 0.2 65. 68.6 48.8 99.8 98.0 11.149 0.4 57. 46.2 47.6 g 83.5 3. 33 45 53 . 46.4 23.6 61.7 g 87.4 60.7 51.0 44. 47 51 55 38 145 63 108 0.6 92.3 .0 38.164 0.9 98.8 13.080 0.1 23.9 39.3 11.4 68..5 47.7 6. 48.1 17.134 0.4 Table Gender Inequality Index Gender Inequality Index Maternal mortality ratioa (deaths per 100.1 34.065 0.5 96.2 68.5 .6 76..6 59....8 84.1 42.7 9.7 .3 79.5 75.8 59. .9 72.2 74.0 64.4 96.6 .057 0.3 .2 g 90.2 47. ..9 60.2 94.258 0.6 49.3 6.356 0..0 8. 0.5 g 94.5 23.7 76..

4 74.328 .7 6..8 19.5 g 73...4 81.4 33.5 13..0 81.1 12. 0.7 33.7 g 32.418 .6 9.459 0.2 51.8 22.474 0.0 17.7 48.6 9.5 53. 27. 78.5 53.590 0.9 87.4 .3 59.. 95 126 49 77 .2 32.4 85. 54 .8 19.8 103.8 .0 91.4 79.5 15.0 12.5 68. 47. 57.9 19.6 15.3 g 95.496 0. Islamic Republic of 77 Peru 78 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 78 Ukraine 80 Mauritius 81 Bosnia and Herzegovina 82 Azerbaijan 83 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 84 Oman 85 Brazil 85 Jamaica 87 Armenia 88 Saint Lucia 89 Ecuador 90 Turkey 91 Colombia 92 Sri Lanka 93 Algeria 94 Tunisia Medium human development 95 Tonga 96 Belize 96 Dominican Republic 96 Fiji 96 Samoa 100 Jordan 101 China 102 Turkmenistan 103 Thailand 104 Maldives 105 Suriname 106 Gabon 107 El Salvador 108 Bolivia..4 64.9 35.6 26.6 g 35.1 59. 62.8 84.3 16..9 29.3 57..5 23.508 . .0 .7 .1 55.4 42.1 31. .2 54.5 27. 0.4 99.0 18.1 35.2 70. 54.7 53.0 76.6 20. 74. 0.7 43.1 79.7 17. 83 68 88 75 74 46 90 79 109 ..6 29. 48.. 118 .340 0.3 19.7 71.4 76. 55.3 51. 90. 13. 69. 81 78 .8 71. 0.9 53.000 women ages 15–19) 2012d Seats in national parliamentc Population with at least secondary education (% ages 25 and older) Labour force participation rate (% ages 15 and older) Female 2011 Male 2011 Rank HDI rank 2012 Value 2012 (% female) 2012 Female 2006–2010e Male 2006–2010e 61 Mexico 62 Costa Rica 63 Grenada 64 Libya 64 Malaysia 64 Serbia 67 Antigua and Barbuda 67 Trinidad and Tobago 69 Kazakhstan 70 Albania 71 Venezuela.5 14.8 g .6 i 13.1 21.9 8.2 99.5 74.8 42.441 0.6 67.3 45.3 36.9 23.312 0.346 .5 78.0 20.5 56.6 17.5 30.382 0. 104 102 100 106 0.0 25.8 13.360 0.9 g .442 0.6 48.438 0..7 3.7 58.7 40.357 0.6 g 66. 0.8 70.9 37.6 5.. 0.. 29. 36 42 .1 47.4 g .0 10.8 g 77.2 80..8 76.7 76..0 35.7 17..8 g 41.9 43.0 59...6 30.1 43..0 70.6 . State of 111 Paraguay 112 Egypt 113 Moldova.8 g 90.3 96. .4 64. 36.340 .9 65..7 40.6 75.3 80.6 25.8 44.7 17..4 19.3 42.482 0.323 .366 0.9 71.4 67.2 .1 22.5 g 45.7 3.0 g 94.8 36.2 74. 4.8 23.4 .4 49. 0.1 57.9 80.7 40..9 80.8 39.1 .462 0.3 7.9 81.387 0. 21 67 10 32 60 8 43 48 32 56 110 30 35 110 20 92 35 97 56 110 53 150 26 . 79.7 13.3 47.1 9..2 71. Republic of 114 Philippines 114 Uzbekistan 116 Syrian Arab Republic 117 Micronesia.251 0.000 live births) 2010 Adolescent fertility rateb (births per 1.3 71. 0.6 80.7 55.4 .7 26.9 66. 72.3 51.3 16.5 12.5 84.1 34.1 46.0 78.8 .1 76..1 47.256 .1 g 52.483 0. 38.7 g ..4 54..0 48.3 66.6 42.458 0.2 30.447 0.7 ..1 19.0 .8 15. 59 85 87 59 .2 g . 0.213 .0 69.8 g ...3 44.3 44.3 68.2 25.6 26.5 11..1 21.551 .2 49.1 4.7 89.7 68.8 15.6 2.3 46.6 g 20.6 80.2 32. 95..8 55.4 31....8 g 34..435 0.3 15.1 g .8 25.2 Table 4  Gender Inequality Index | 157 .6 .0 80..162 0.391 0.0 49.7 18. Federated States of 118 Guyana 119 Botswana 120 Honduras 121 Indonesia 72 62 . 59. 0.466 . Plurinational State of 108 Mongolia 110 Palestine.1 6.1 .8 72. 30. 67 25 ..494 50 40 24 58 29 12 .2 19.2 15.. 63 37 67 48 60 130 230 81 190 63 64 99 66 41 99 28 70 100 280 160 100 220 65.1 31. ..5 18.0 43. .9 66..6 3.2 34.8 78.2 54.. .5 58.8 g 56.8 85..5 78..9 .377 .3 82.5 77.8 49.4 27.. 50 51 41 93 .3 76.7 38.4 63.9 54. 46 51 27 92 ..1 60..7 g 40.3 18.7 47.6 68. 35.6 30.6 65.2 39.433 .8 25.7 ..3 74.1 48.8 34.2 ...7 28.8 68.3 28.9 42.9 39.402 0.485 0.8 22.7 15..8 16.7 81.0 g 72. 0. 61.1 6.0 49.. 41.0 0.5 64.5 g 18.0 g 48.6 52.1 81. 59. 55.3 63..3 14..303 0.3 78..6 82. 44.472 0.1 16.5 6.1 11.1 .492 0.3 77. 76.6 49.7 70.2 55.0 75.2 57. 16.7 46..7 42.Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World Gender Inequality Index Maternal mortality ratioa (deaths per 100.5 66...6 56..7 36. 99 35 .7 9.8 g ..8 83.4 g ..3 86.8 65. Bolivarian Republic of 72 Dominica 72 Georgia 72 Lebanon 72 Saint Kitts and Nevis 76 Iran.1 54.2 g 43.0 39.0 76.9 70.1 31.1 .3 72. 66 64 94 105 82 97 56 .4 2.5 53.6 55.4 18.5 18.467 0.8 46.4 9.1 85.0 52.4 75.9 16.2 92.261 0.8 55.311 0.9 71.2 50.8 26.9 .2 61.0 77.2 77.. 107 73 30 57 70 .0 38. 36..4 18.1 29.490 0.2 13.6 79.6 42.338 0.4 g 91.5 61.5 10.2 12..1 g 94.216 0. 0.9 g .7 71.5 71.7 65.0 g 80..

5 105.6 96.2 .6 80.5 66... 5.6 71. 9.2 g 24.9 21.2 g .444 0. . 4.8 92.2 36.0 11. 18.2 58.8 13.3 85..2 14.3 66.. .7 98..0 86.4 57.338 0.6 g 8..4 52.7 g 33. l 12.0 13.. 16..3 24.5 76.9 83.9 g 34.2 2.1 122.3 83. 80 137 .556 . 17.7 g .2 85..1 68. 39.2 g 62..1 82.2 g 34.9 g 11...4 67.6 73.6 29. 11.1 76.7 62.9 15. 121 .3 83..539 . 0.2 .0 22.0 40..618 0...567 ..6 46.7 86. 0..7 69. 0.9 80.4 86.9 80.455 0.0 g 93.5 89.7 g .414 0.0 115.0 10.573 0.610 .8 79.0 g 6.2 60.1 81...4 50.1 41.6 8.5 65.1 44. 20.5 11.628 . 0.1 g 22..1 38.2 26. 45.7 68.4 50.4 98.7 54.462 .4 g 12.6 g .3 83..8 72.4 g 9.1 11.4 g 13.0 53.7 65.5 13.0 10. 0.3 g 43..8 g .2 20.8 36..6 67.8 35. 20.3 30..6 19.7 78.2 80..3 62.6 .0 3.7 4..8 g 34.544 . 12.8 30.9 25.5 85.5 57.2 69.5 22.1 g 48. 52.2 60.3 . 90 . 0.5 46.8 84.7 .9 g 19..8 45.2 43..0 25. 50.7 168.8 43. 64 57 48 86 89 84 120 .9 97.2 g 85. 81..6 55.5 89.9 15.5 8.7 33.9 30.6 13.604 0.0 25.4 51.3 63.6 79.2 83.2 g .1 105.9 ...4 48.8 g 20.9 g 21. 17.7 128.473 0.2 69. 114 ..2 ..8 g .6 36. 10.8 g .4 73.7 22.2 k 4.0 6.6 22.3 39..9 8.6 64.8 g 48. 142 ..485 0.7 21. 119 .6 g 11.0 70.9 36. 0.1 g 24.0 g 30.8 g 17.8 g .7 g .4 51.2 47.0 73.8 . 0.3 62.9 g ..1 78.0 49.1 0.0 64..9 11.9 79.6 75.3 g 23.1 g ..3 74.8 49.3 80.712 .1 17.000 women ages 15–19) 2012d Seats in national parliamentc Population with at least secondary education (% ages 25 and older) Labour force participation rate (% ages 15 and older) Female 2011 Male 2011 Rank HDI rank 2012 Value 2012 (% female) 2012 Female 2006–2010e Male 2006–2010e 121 Kiribati 121 South Africa 124 Vanuatu 125 Kyrgyzstan 125 Tajikistan 127 Viet Nam 128 Namibia 129 Nicaragua 130 Morocco 131 Iraq 132 Cape Verde 133 Guatemala 134 Timor-Leste 135 Ghana 136 Equatorial Guinea 136 India 138 Cambodia 138 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 140 Bhutan 141 Swaziland Low human development 142 Congo 143 Solomon Islands 144 Sao Tome and Principe 145 Kenya 146 Bangladesh 146 Pakistan 148 Angola 149 Myanmar 150 Cameroon 151 Madagascar 152 Tanzania.4 g 25. 44.1 .4 25.4 114. 128 135 76 138 .5 g 5.1 87. 18.3 g 42. 0.1 12.1 78..3 g 7.3 17.3 g .517 0.0 g . 139 98 .1 g 39.0 g ..9 69.4 66.565 .4 104..7 71.7 27.6 33.9 112.3 88.0 74.0 g 29. 124 129 116 .5 g 23.4 53.7 70..table 4  Gender Inequality Index Gender Inequality Index Maternal mortality ratioa (deaths per 100.0 38..299 0. 143 147 . 115 139 134 102 113 122 148 127 110 136 .608 0.1 28.6 74.534 0.0 g 21.1 82.2 83.643 0..0 25.566 0.9 ..557 .3 38.0 70. 15.437 0.9 23. 31.594 0.2 28..5 79.4 25.4 79. 26.4 72.540 0.. 10.654 .9 76.1 84.8 g 14..5 57. 0.7 51.8 64.3 123.3 76.9 80.2 g 7. 26... 9.8 g 18..5 70.0 78.518 0.2 102.4 58.9 15.483 0. 72. 25.464 0.7 g 36. 11..0 g 44.9 9. 0. 141 .4 88.2 9.0 g . 0.0 61.0 72.8 7.476 .8 85..1 j 1.7 g 5.4 g 20..000 live births) 2010 Adolescent fertility rateb (births per 1.8 g 28.610 0.9 10. .0 79. United Republic of 153 Nigeria 154 Senegal 155 Mauritania 156 Papua New Guinea 157 Nepal 158 Lesotho 159 Togo 160 Yemen 161 Haiti 161 Uganda 163 Zambia 164 Djibouti 165 Gambia 166 Benin 167 Rwanda 168 Côte d’Ivoire 169 Comoros 170 Malawi 171 Sudan 172 Zimbabwe 173 Ethiopia 174 Liberia 175 Afghanistan 176 Guinea-Bissau 177 Sierra Leone 178 Burundi 178 Guinea 180 Central African Republic 181 Eritrea 182 Mali .6 ..632 .9 g 43.6 10.. 0.2 104.5 19.3 89.3 88..1 148. 132 96 100 92 112 132 ..7 61.2 20.3 78.2 g .4 g 18.747 0.0 35..9 67.6 g 22.5 24.9 75.461 0.2 g .1 90.0 35..649 ..617 0.658 0. 61.7 41.7 90.1 25.2 11. .4 81.4 88.4 81.8 19.4 .4 80.357 0.0 20.1 71.7 26.7 32. 300 110 71 65 59 200 95 100 63 79 120 300 350 240 200 250 470 180 320 560 93 70 360 240 260 450 200 690 240 460 630 370 510 230 170 620 300 200 350 310 440 200 360 350 340 400 280 460 730 570 350 770 460 790 890 800 610 890 240 540 16.623 . 68.2 76.5 50.4 g 36. 0.3 126.9 g .2 . 60. 0.0 g 34. 9.7 111.9 133.1 77.5 8.0 66.2 74.6 53.592 0.3 55.0 12..7 g .643 0.4 81.6 53.4 138.0 158 | Human Development Report 2013 .9 66.7 79.9 34.525 0.2 22.3 77.3 10. 81.6 68..4 72.6 g 34.8 54. 130 111 123 ..9 18...7 41.3 ...0 99.9 44.

org/en/media/ HDR_2013_EN_TechNotes.193 0. .2 .9 105. Adolescent fertility rate: Number of births to women ages 15–19 per 1.9 81.000 women ages 15–19.0 g 36.2 82.5 23.0 79.3 12. .6 81.3 23. . .. .8 49. UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2012) and ILO (2012).5 68.pdf for details on how the Gender Inequality Index is calculated..000 women ages 15–19) 2012d Seats in national parliamentc Population with at least secondary education (% ages 25 and older) Labour force participation rate (% ages 15 and older) Female 2011 Male 2011 Rank HDI rank 2012 Value 2012 (% female) 2012 Female 2006–2010e Male 2006–2010e 183 Burkina Faso 184 Chad 185 Mozambique 186 Congo.. .. expressed as a percentage of the working-age population.1 27.2 g 7.8 65.1 18. .9 77. 6.4 22.0 44.. . . 0..5 g 10. one woman was appointed to the cabinet.5 18.419 0.0 51. of Marshall Islands Monaco Nauru San Marino Somalia South Sudan Tuvalu Human Development Index groups Very high human development High human development Medium human development Low human development Regions Arab States East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Least developed countries Small island developing states World NOTES a Data were computed to ensure comparability across countries and are thus not necessarily the same as official country statistics. ... Population with at least secondary education: Percentage of the population ages 25 and older that have reached secondary education.7 46.582 0.9 . ..7 .... Column 5: IPU (2012).3 79. ..8 53.3 64.376 0.7 75.3 22.5 64. . .8 39.2 13.000 live births.7 24.7 86..681 0.. .6 53..2 90. Table 4  Gender Inequality Index | 159 .0 76. no rounding.9 44.7 16. .000 ..2 39.7 35. Democratic People’s Rep. Column 4: UNDESA (2011).6 193. . which may be based on alternative rigorous methods. .. .3 3.2 13. . .481 0..5 18. .1% was used... 0.8 ..577 0.0 18. .6 0.6 37.9 71.7 25...5 23. . Columns 6 and 7: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2012).4 138. Seats in national parliament: Proportion of seats held by women in a lower or single house or an upper house or senate.. . Barro and Lee (2010).2 19.. ..9 77. 37.. c For countries with bicameral legislative systems the share of seats in national parliament is calculated based on both houses.4 18... . ..6 3.4 170.9 74. .000. ..8 28. .0 .6 .9 48...6 g ..100 490 540 590 81 .8 32.. 52.280 0.0 85.4 73. . .568 0. 84.. .3 6.0 17.463 300 1.5 20.8 51..undp..7 62.1 49. rounded to the nearest 100. . . .. Democratic Republic of the 186 Niger Other countries or territories Korea.2 8.1 70. a value of 0. Columns 8 and 9: ILO (2012). 100–999.000 live births) 2010 Adolescent fertility rateb (births per 1. ... expressed per 100. Maternal mortality ratio: Ratio of the number of maternal deaths to the number of live births in a given year. See Technical note 3 at http://hdr.. 1.7 31. UNDESA (2011)..8 50.0 19. 21.566 0.9 72. .0 52. rounded to the nearest 10.. IPU (2012). 15 47 121 405 176 73 28 74 203 475 394 193 145 117.2 15.Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World Gender Inequality Index Maternal mortality ratioa (deaths per 100..2 82.7 64.. . empowerment and the labour market. b Based on medium-fertility variant. 1.. however.0 62..1 124. 131 .5 g ..4 49.578 0. k Estimate is for prior to the 31 August 2012 elections..2 18.8 24..457 0.0 70. j Does not include the 36 rotating delegates appointed on an ad hoc basis..9 83.7 ..1 18.7 63.6 69. d Data are annual average of projected values for 2010–2015..9 79.. e Data refer to the most recent year available during the period specified..0 31.3 90. 87.2 g Barro and Lee (2011) estimate for 2010.5 89. .9 20.707 . Labour force participation rate: Proportion of a country’s working-age population that engages in the labour market. . and greater than 1..7 45.4 80.1 51...4 86.7 1.3 15.555 0. . .0 39.9 61.6 66.0 0. DEFINITIONS Gender Inequality Index: A composite measure reflecting inequality in achievements between women and men in three dimensions: reproductive health.3 13. 76.2 49..333 0. 68. Data are rounded according to the following scheme: less than 100. 0.3 0..2 58. 125 144 146 .1 65. .1 53. . h For calculating the Gender Inequality Index.5 56.1 80. expressed as percentage of total seats.. .9 42. f The denominator of the calculation refers to voting members of the House of Representatives only. . i No women were elected in 2010. l The parliament was dissolved following the December 2008 coup.. . MAIN DATA SOURCES Columns 1 and 2: HDRO calculations based on WHO and others (2012)..0 20.7 g 2. either by working or actively looking for work. . . ..0 2.7 16.. Column 3: WHO and others (2012).. .609 .

3 d 64.1 0.8 33.7 50.3 33.3 49.8 33.7 14.4 40.0 87.4 31.0 d 8..3 19.3 5.310 0.2 2.2 7.0 0.0 42.018 0.8 66.1 53.2 54.972 13.2 39.5 4.7 39.9 0.4 35.25 a day 2002–2011c National poverty line 2002–2012c Population in multidimensional poverty Multidimensional Poverty Index Yearb Valuea Headcount (%) (thousands) Intensity of deprivation (%) a Population vulnerable to poverty (%) Population in severe poverty (%) Contribution of deprivation to overall poverty (%) Education Health Living standards Estimates based on surveys for 2007–2011 Albania 2008/2009 (D) Armenia 2010 (D) Bangladesh 2007 (D) Bhutan 2010 (M) Bolivia.5 37..7 35.2 50.8 8.127 855 13.8 31.0 25.1 35.7 63.011 0.6 27.9 9.5 36.3 50.5 5.9 5.9 2.530 0.1 31.439 0.9 31.8 7.2 8.5 Table Multidimensional Poverty Index Population below income poverty line (%) PPP $1.3 d 60.1 48.9 46.3 26.8 21. 28. 40.4 3.8 27.9 24.0 9.9 38.4 .7 27.9 35.3 43.699 72.6 37.6 49.2 64.740 4.3 62.6 25.6 71.6 57.9 30.075 6.8 44.1 34.0 31.1 d 45.9 59.4 40.000 0.0 35.4 52.0 44.8 14.5 23.0 39.122 67 3..552 749 1.3 0.3 21.2 39.1 22.0 30.6 .500 1.5 .9 f 5.6 29.0 4.9 31.2 22.7 38.083 6.9 54.7 7.242 83.2 8.352 d 0.1 68.030 0.2 54.9 36.5 40.8 18.7 17.5 13.6 0.9 15.3 39.5 7.7 53.160 f 461 0 16 5.001 0.1 45 6 83.512 0.4 31.1 49.0 6.3 34.4 20.8 15.422 12.8 38.8 31.1 21.218 13.1 25.0 14.415 7.2 19.3 46.334 0.4 24.0 33.4 38.0 57.010 1.9 34.0 16.4 65.089 0.5 50.5 0.9 28.9 49.0 20.0 91.208 0.2 26.3 50.292 0.3 31.6 f 39.485 0.5 51.0 5.7 5.9 18.4 13.5 84.2 31.5 16.463 9.008 0.4 2.7 18.1 51.6 74.7 84.8 10.8 19.3 d 9.3 83.4 33.2 14.3 9. 0.1 43.003 0.2 61.367 0.2 6. 15.0 45.5 .8 36.1 57.7 44.287 0.5 46.6 53.9 64.1 4.6 29.0 33.8 68. 12.2 21.9 32.6 47.6 1.011 f 0.9 24.8 34.2 49.8 54.2 69.5 25.9 29.5 48.9 0.2 27.021 0.7 17.2 45.7 58.2 61.7 52.0 25.0 9.6 31.7 53.9 5.095 0.1 8.128 9.2 44.9 55.7 22.7 39.1 27.758 161.144 0.9 66. 33.1 22.4 3.129 0.7 40.8 27.7 9.2 47.7 20.8 56.6 17.1 30.8 11.5 10.3 21.8 5.056 0.024 0.154 0.9 17.4 40.1 34.4 30.119 0. 23.022 0.1 47.1 57.600 48.4 44.4 77.8 3.0 38.9 55..4 50.5 35.264 d 0.2 31.2 f 0.3 12.6 35.258 58 48.9 66.321 6.0 34.4 0.8 2.9 56.3 4.5 0.2 10.5 27.352 145 18.9 18.9 27.7 46.9 33.1 d 12.7 44.6 13.7 32.287 d 18.5 42.0 71.2 50.6 47.877 1.9 66.7 34.2 1.9 23.0 21.5 23.4 15.7 15.0 56.016 0.834 6.0 21.5 74.0 1.9 27.1 49.7 34.982 d 3.7 41.2 1.0 .9 39.6 43.6 19..1 0.9 53.4 50.4 35.2 17.2 39.2 42.328 0.8 33.3 73.4 0.4 d 1.5 39.7 1.2 33.1 37.8 45.018 24.2 15.3 11.4 55.7 49.2 0.1 21.4 41.5 28.4 66.2 .1 0.3 45.7 33.8 60.6 44.4 63.6 63.1 .. Plurinational State of 2008 (D) Burkina Faso 2010 (D) Cambodia 2010 (D) Colombia 2010 (D) Congo 2009 (D) Congo.0 18.4 18.236 d 52 4.4 47.6 7.6 57.1 0.3 10.9 12.2 50.9 44.9 50.4 32.2 6.6 12.690 7.7 4.2 23.0 21.2 60.0 0.0 26.9 45.064 0..5 52.9 57.2 22.8 31.1 71.392 0.564 0.2 59.535 0.344 0.0 39.0 13.412 0.0 4.652 30 5.5 59.4 24.1 18.207 198 1.3 28.2 7.8 17.9 51.4 37.360 0.5 21.0 42.086 0.1 81.7 10.4 46.9 26.1 4.3 40.7 46.057 0.1 .018 0.4 49.2 45.1 11.9 23.7 d 3.187 0.8 65.7 2.1 19.9 30.0 37.9 37.0 28.5 30.633 16 1. 12.4 4.8 0.9 32.6 19.6 27.8 68.1 17.9 64.4 61.8 11.6 68.066 0.4 0.2 50.1 40..005 0.3 72.350 0.8 35.3 33.0 2.1 57.3 0. 18. Democratic Republic of the 2010 (M) Dominican Republic 2007 (D) Egypt 2008 (D) Ethiopia 2011 (D) Ghana 2008 (D) Guyana 2009 (D) Indonesia 2007 (D) Jordan 2009 (D) Kenya 2008/2009 (D) Lesotho 2009 (D) Liberia 2007 (D) Madagascar 2008/2009 (D) Malawi 2010 (D) Maldives 2009 (D) Mauritania 2007 (M) Morocco 2007 (N) Mozambique 2009 (D) Namibia 2006/2007 (D) Nepal 2011 (D) Nigeria 2008 (D) Pakistan 2006/2007 (D) Palestine.3 19.3 0.332 0.2 39.0 39.439 0.4 26.4 3.1 2.5 53.156 0.2 6.6 32.3 0.1 0.4 1.9 45.4 17.1 17.0 32.6 61.1 ..8 2..5 45.4 0.7 40.8 11.8 81.212 0.8 40.5 44.7 20.5 25.6 46.8 f 12.2 25.5 23.7 0.149 5.6 12.1 87.1 2.2 1.0 54.0 19. State of 2006/2007 (N) Peru 2008 (D) Philippines 2008 (D) Rwanda 2010 (D) Sao Tome and Principe 2008/2009 (D) Senegal 2010/2011 (D) Sierra Leone 2008 (D) South Africa 2008 (N) Swaziland 2010 (M) Tanzania.8 40.6 d 79.7 99.7 64.8 25.4 23.7 13.4 d 0.2 18.357 0.642 4.1 19.609 242 28.7 52.4 6.7 13.048 d 0.1 42.7 56.2 33.1 5.863 759 3.3 20. 47.675 196 316 37.3 62.0 7.415 2. 42.1 51.9 25.6 9.2 53.1 21.3 0.578 81.7 34.4 7.008 0.4 53.1 .172 0.4 43.3 27.5 0.0 44.0 0.5 29. 160 | Human Development Report 2013 .6 6.0 69.1 22.6 0.4 83.6 67.8 11.3 25.3 53.7 49.7 32.900 56 7.1 3.217 0.6 44.9 43.5 .1 81.0 1.3 41.229 0..4 17.4 d 37.1 54.6 15.1 21.6 22.7 d 10..9 .9 13.8 31.017 0.4 48.5 53.815 439 4.6 22.8 35.3 45.0 53.4 43.0 7.7 21.5 4.2 37.4 22.3 27.5 0. United Republic of 2010 (D) Timor-Leste 2009/2010 (D) Ukraine 2007 (D) Uganda 2011 (D) Vanuatu 2007 (M) Viet Nam 2010/2011 (M) Zambia 2007 (D) Zimbabwe 2010/2011 (D) Estimates based on surveys for 2002–2006 Argentina 2005 (N) Azerbaijan 2006 (D) Belarus 2005 (M) Belize 2006 (M) Benin 2006 (D) Bosnia and Herzegovina 2006 (M) Brazil 2006 (N) Burundi 2005 (M) Cameroon 2004 (D) Chad 2003 (W) China 2002 (W) Croatia 2003 (W) Czech Republic 2002/2003 (W) 0.2 41.3 47.0 12.4 15.4 16.2 20.6 27.3 57.2 54.024 0.4 19.005 0.3 42.4 69.5 13.5 7.6 12.7 15.1 0.

6 35.8 42.0 .139 0.009 0.2 .3 2.1 50.9 47.3 4. 8.1 0. W indicates data are from World Health Surveys and N indicates data are from national surveys.3 37.5 11. health and living standards from various household surveys as listed in column 1. e Upper bound estimate.2 7.2 3.5 20.9 47.0 9.5 42.5 0.757 37 d 11.4 1.0 15. Conconi and Roche (2012)..undp.4 94.2 12.0 31.281 466 612.8 21.1 56.1 13.1 0.1 19.002 0.8 22.000 e 0.021 e 0.0 0.2 27. see Alkire and others (2011) and Alkire.065 0.7 69.0 0.1 11. 1.8 56.0 .7 26.6 .1 37.0 d 68.4 24.2 30.506 0.6 1.8 Multidimensional Poverty Index: Percentage of the population that is multidimensionally poor adjusted by the intensity of the deprivations.0 38.4 96.5 e 3. .1 0...020 0.7 45.1 45.5 34.3 1.0 0.4 0.8 .3 0.3 32.0 38. Intensity of deprivation of multidimensional poverty: Average percentage of deprivation experienced by people in multidimensional poverty.1 84.0 48.5 0.8 22.1 27.0 38.3 5.8 36.7 8.019 0.0 32.0 .4 14.3 41.7 36.0 39.7 27.0 18.5 18.1 11.7 d 47.9 36.7 7.1 31.5 53.3 53. 1.5 40. indicator weights are adjusted to total 100%.0 34.8 25.3 1.1 0.6 36.006 d 0.2 57.6 5.9 0.3 16.0 14.9 d 64.8 6.2 5.2 59.008 0.3 45.0 41.7 51.0 47.642 0.0 42.2 81.9 47.8 10.6 24.9 d 40.9 0.1 56.5 43.8 0. 48.0 1.6 3. f Refers to only part of the country.3 52.2 6.5 43..346 2.015 0.0 1.3 11.2 6.4 . . MAIN DATA SOURCES Columns 1 and 2: Calculated from various household surveys.9 6.3 36.4 0.0 38.1 3.1 .1 9.8 41.0 23.6 15.299 0.5 27.2 35.0 0.0 .514 0.2 49.064 0.7 2.0 53.039 0.5 29.5 38.007 0.3 36. M indicates data are from Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys.0 e 65.6 19.4 21.3 94.0 e 0.3 2.4 38.1 0.016 0.0 2. including ICF Macro Demographic and Health Surveys.9 28.5 23.003 74 272 d 4. 46.1 8..026 0.006 0.6 33.8 d 3. Republic of Mongolia Montenegro Nicaragua Niger Paraguay Russian Federation Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Somalia Sri Lanka Suriname Syrian Arab Republic Tajikistan Thailand The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Togo Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey United Arab Emirates Uruguay Uzbekistan Yemen NOTES a Not all indicators were available for all countries.006 0. 34.0 26.9 35.2 33.7 15.4 e 9. Population below PPP $1. c Data refer to the most recent year available during the period specified.5 19. 32.6 0.134 d 7.7 11.0 21.3 d 0.284 0.25 (in purchasing power parity terms) a day.4 0.6 14.0 9.3 18.6 4. 2005 (D) 2006 (M) 2003 (W) 2003 (W) 2005/2006 (M) 2005 (M) 2003 (W) 2005 (D) 2005/2006 (D) 2005/2006 (D) 2003 (W) 2005/2006 (D) 2006 (M) 2006 (M) 2005/2006 (M) 2006 (M) 2003 (W) 2006 (D) 2006 (N) 2005 (D) 2005 (M) 2005/2006 (M) 2006/2007 (D) 2006 (D) 2002/2003 (W) 2003 (W) 2005/2006 (M) 2003 (W) 2003 (W) 2006 (M) 2003 (W) 2006 (M) 2006 (M) 2005 (M) 2005/2006 (M) 2005 (M) 2006 (M) 2006 (M) 2003 (W) 2003 (D) 2003 (W) 2002/2003 (W) 2006 (M) 2006 (M) DEFINITIONS 0.6 d 3.. Columns 11 and 12: World Bank (2012a).558 0.027 d 41 1..0 16.4 23.6 35.941 1.9 35.267 0.0 e 63.9 17.5 56.4 0.002 0. Columns 3–10: Calculated based on data on household deprivations in education. Where data are missing.8 43.3 5.4 51.3 25.9 58.996 92 249 2.0 e 0.5 d 62.4 0.5 0.128 0.2 33.1 32.0 34.8 d 6.3 13.5 51.2 0.1 7.0 e 0.5 41. which is the poverty line deemed appropriate for a country by its authorities.9 28.7 40. National estimates are based on populationweighted subgroup estimates from household surveys.021 d 0.0 e 0.6 2.3 21.4 20.4 0.1 e 23.2 35. those with a deprivation score of 50% or more.3 28.9 15.000 e 0. Population in severe poverty: Percentage of the population in severe multidimensional poverty—that is.2 d 0.4 18.3 0.067 39 3.104 1.9 13.9 d 7.0 38.003 0.6 0. .8 1.5 28. 17.6 d 86. b D indicates data are from Demographic and Health Surveys.5 27.313 72 403 9 1.7 59.8 47.0 12.4 32.5 37.8 0. United Nations Children’s Fund Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and World Health Organization World Health Surveys conducted between 2000 and 2010.2 5.7 24.5 33.25 a day: Percentage of the population living below the international poverty line $1. For details on countries missing data.3 27.083 241 286 97 935 36 3.9 34.5 43.041 e 1.7 14.8 d 9.4 18.9 8..5 29.4 d 6. 60.4 48.9 d 82.0 92.0 0.7 0.8 4.176 57.6 5.3 11.Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World Population in multidimensional poverty Multidimensional Poverty Index Yearb Valuea Headcount (%) (thousands) Intensity of deprivation (%) a Population vulnerable to poverty (%) Population in severe poverty (%) Contribution of deprivation to overall poverty (%) Education Health Living standards Population below income poverty line (%) PPP $1.459 5.9 27.2 60.127 d 0.0 0.159 0.3 9.3 29.203 3.2 33. Population below national poverty line: Percentage of the population living below the national poverty line.1 d 61.283 0.6 2.pdf for details on how the Multidimensional Poverty Index is calculated.2 30.3 46.9 88.6 55.4 28.7 . See Technical note 4 at http://hdr.7 33.0 0. 29.4 13.0 39.3 34.9 15.2 58.6 5.9 32.9 .5 95.5 40.1 0.2 5.010 d 0.1 d 42.283 61.6 45.6 53. d Lower bound estimate.5 14. Contribution of deprivation to overall poverty: Percentage of the Multidimensional Poverty Index attributed to deprivations in each dimension.1 1.4 35.2 32. caution should thus be used in cross-country comparisons.771 4.3 1.7 6.3 37.6 35.437 755 1.7 41.378 20 57 603 11.3 38.5 38.7 .4 39.9 38.1 2.3 47..0 0.5 e 17.6 7.2 1.008 0.6 1. Population vulnerable to poverty: Percentage of the population at risk of suffering multiple deprivations— that is..2 0.2 37.6 0.6 91.6 36.8 6.9 54. 0.538 12.0 61.1 0.5 14.1 1.3 0.3 12.5 e 40.6 1.8 25.7 40.6 46.25 a day 2002–2011c National poverty line 2002–2012c Côte d’Ivoire Djibouti Ecuador Estonia Gambia Georgia Guatemala Guinea Haiti Honduras Hungary India Iraq Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Lao People’s Democratic Republic Latvia Mali Mexico Moldova.8 18.2 14.006 0..5 0. those with a deprivation score of 20%–33%.005 d 0.0 0.2 0.0 28.7 32.6 21.1 .2 d 1.3 .2 0.6 0...6 0.9 43.0 0..353 0.6 13..5 4. 3.1 0.3 38. Table 5  Multidimensional Poverty Index | 161 .7 .6 3.4 4.3 d 8. 0.9 52.028 0.8 18..003 0. 18.0 0.8 36.7 41.2 0. Multidimensional poverty headcount: Percentage of the population with a weighted deprivation score of at least 33%.1 18.2 53.org/en/media/ HDR_2013_EN_TechNotes.4 27.3 17.1 6.4 47.7 42.4 35. 17.0 23.0 35.4 4.068 0.0 e 81.3 52. 7.324 0.6 4.4 0.2 23.3 28.9 34.6 35.2 45.883 d 79 0e 0e 6..3 0.6 0.7 2.3 0.2 ..6 0..4 37.7 21.3 78.0 d 7.1 0.059 0.

8 20.. . . 19. ..6 8...459 32.5 1.2 19..9 c 112 116 112 108 108 115 107 108 104 100 109 116 112 149 111 114 111 109 114 108 110 115 112 .7 1.9 26.8 30..8 3. . . 21. .7 10.6 1..6 ..0 9..5 2. .2 18.5 364.1 d 1. 1.8 21.127 36..7 3.2 5.0 4. .808 10.6 19.7 7.9 4.8 15.. .. .4 5.6 7.5 22.8 5.7 5...4 3.. 19. .3 .. 7. .293 21.4 3. 5.0 19.6 2.7 .5 1.5 13. .935 14.7 6.0 35.0 44.3 1.. 5.8 3.8 ..5 8.4 7.0 26.2 25...5 22.2 2.8 .3 19..437 24.0 10.3 .4 22.8 18.6 631.1 . .905 11.6 20.2 .5 12.8 8.7 .8 1..7 3. .9 25.5 9.8 .1 11.1 5.9 145. 3...4 2.9 1.6 5.162 21..2 0.1 17..2 27.1 2.9 0.1 d 21.7 2..7 21.819 32.7 .. 4...0 . 21. 0.0 18.. 43.4 5.0 10.9 4.6 .773 15.3 18.8 13.2 18..7 5..3 300.7 .5 4.4 19.9 3. .2 . 130 163 135 138 129 . . .9 3..4 5. .9 c 23.7 781.951..4 108.0 112..1 7.0 0.0 5..8 c 18.7 6.2 17..6 5.1 c 22.5 1.254 24..1 15...9 8. ...9 c 11.9 .7 .564 d 18.6 12.9 5.4 20.6 6.9 6.660 35..6 3. .4 c 25.9 20.2 5..1 22.877 42.8 4.3 4..1 0.814.9 18.7 7.5 1.. .3 1..1 ..8 6.231...1 c 28.9 20.3 19. .. .. .1 5.6 4.8 233.4 3.238.3 .3 23..239 13. 5. 19..4 6.402 13.4 2.7 8..3 15. 2.... 24. .3 17. .1 0..0 29.6 18.2 6.8 11.3 c 18.9 .7 20..0 .3 5.5 8.. 27. .8 5.8 17..7 306.5 15.... 5.0 310. .2 601. .6 21.0 20.4 12.2 c 20. .5 6. 46.2 2.8 19. 5.1 2..9 . 2.5 6.7 2.1 2.8 d 10. .3 6.. 4.0 4. ..0 4. 5.8 51..5 20.4 3. ..4 39.1 277.5 21.8 d 691.. .6 4. 2..7 5..1 32.3 1.063 .885 20. .1 .. 1. 4.6 2.2 .5 4..3 8.3 ..6 6.4 1.5 ..0 20.6 6.558 45.2 23.7 180.7 226.0 8. China (SAR) 13 Iceland 15 Denmark 16 Israel 17 Belgium 18 Austria 18 Singapore 20 France 21 Finland 21 Slovenia 23 Spain 24 Liechtenstein 25 Italy 26 Luxembourg 26 United Kingdom 28 Czech Republic 29 Greece 30 Brunei Darussalam 31 Cyprus 32 Malta 33 Andorra 33 Estonia 35 Slovakia 36 Qatar 37 Hungary 38 Barbados 39 Poland 40 Chile 41 Lithuania 41 United Arab Emirates 43 Portugal 44 Latvia 45 Argentina 46 Seychelles 47 Croatia High human development 48 Bahrain 49 Bahamas 50 Belarus 51 Uruguay 52 Montenegro 52 Palau 54 Kuwait 55 Russian Federation 56 Romania 57 Bulgaria 57 Saudi Arabia 59 Cuba 232.4 1.6 23.9 7..7 2.. .1 6.7 5. 19. . .. 1.3 24.176 47.4 1.0 4.371. .315 10.. .4 5.7 5.7 7. 1.9 4..0 13.9 4.6 1.9 ..3 e 1. 1.5 20. 17.9 6. 4.9 3.3 5.. .5 5.987 17. .8 125.0 8.4 .4 c 159.191 13.6 23.2 .5 2.2 5.918.7 3.6 Table Command over resources ECONOMY GDP (2005 PPP $ billions) GDP per capita (2005 PPP $) 2011 Gross fixed capital Consumer formation Price Index (% of GDP) 2011 (2005 = 100) 2010 2000 General government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP) 2011 Health (% of GDP) 2010 2010 PUBLIC SPENDING Education (% of GDP) 2000 2005–2010b Militarya (% of GDP) 2000 2010 Total debt service (% of GDP) 2000 2009 HDI rank 2011 Very high human development 1 Norway 2 Australia 3 United States 4 Netherlands 5 Germany 6 New Zealand 7 Ireland 7 Sweden 9 Switzerland 10 Japan 11 Canada 12 Korea. 18. 17.9 2.0 14.9 3.2 3..7 4...5 1.4 3.0 1. .. ...8 2.5 18.5 16.6 7.6 8.1 1..7 10.9 2.1 7.8 1.9 .034.9 c 9.0 d 21.0 4.7 4. .3 135.4 25.172 16.2 28. 19.5 18.5 13.8 37. 4.8 4..6 11.7 6..757 77. .5 22.2 173.0 .5 3.9 .1 24.8 5.2 23..6 6.4 5.3 c 18.6 3.6 20...6 5. 110 111 114 115 117 105 113 112 .0 .0 5. . .4 4. .9 3.6 4.8 21.0 15.2 11.3 5.1 4.5 23.4 .9 1.618 32..5 4.6 2. 0.7 54. .045 23.. .9 1. ..9 21.0 17. .8 5.3 1. 2. .0 37.251 34.9 4.7 9. 13.716 27.0 22.1 6.6 9.6 10..5 d 15.2 .7 14.9 15.1 2.1 0..048 37.7 2.9 2.353 53.3 3.1 3..2 5.4 3.3 14. ..507 c 26.7 6..5 19.1 8.272 16.2 15.0 1.9 331.8 6. .2 3... 9.7 9.4 1.0 1.4 1. .1 4.4 ..1 6. 162 | Human Development Report 2013 .2 2.1 19.3 5.2 4.1 18. .9 5.7 5.007 .3 . .8 5.2 6.7 5.. .5 c 18.3 c 8..1 6.0 17.6 5.1 1.295 17. 1..0 1.. . .0 1.5 c 28.2 24..4 9..3 88.5 22.474 23.7 2.2 7..4 8.7 2.1 16.4 .8 1.1 6. . . .1 23. .7 0. 1.5 2. 8.720 33.9 c 26.7 .1 1.0 71...6 15.6 0.967 27. .0 5.9 .8 255.4 c 19.4 4. .6 3.3 ..6 1.6 d 16.3 621.2 9.5 1.818 c 35.2 263.0 0.0 7. 2. 4.501 23..4 5.1 5. 5..7 . ..399 26.. 20.548 42...1 19.2 17.8 4..1 4. ..317 13.9 5. 20.4 6. Republic of 13 Hong Kong.9 9..7 c 18. . ...1 23.1 5..5 c 19.982 34.9 c 6.3 0.5 16. 7..0 5.4 1. . . 7.844 33..6 207..2 26.1 . 7.6 .6 c 19.9 c 18.6 3.2 5..087 15.5 5..5 4.9 1.0 3. .8 d 23.4 21..967 22. . .3 3.9 17.1 19.8 6.5 3.2 1.6 . 4. .8 8.0 3.3 2.0 .251.1 2.9 10.1 25.486 37..4 ..6 22.5 2. .0 8.. .7 9..0 1.799 21.9 . .0 1. .. .1 3.6 1.2 1.979 30.0 9.6 18.6 1.8 7.640 35. ..8 24.8 4.1 14..0 5.8 172.2 c 21..0 4.6 d 26. 1.5 c 14.7 ..7 5.6 12.3 6.430 .1 4. . 126 115 136 130 132 115 101 129 115 109 139 154 185 117 114 113 162 142 122 .4 9. .6 c 21.0 .2 3.6 7.8 16. 7.5 21.5 1.9 2.8 1.0 3..6 2.4 3.9 24.1 19. .1 333...0 5..9 .3 22.2 19.7 1.3 2. .4 5..101.9 1.9 2.1 4..9 6.1 1.2 5.9 14.9 c 20.4 ..9 22.7 17..0 2. .4 20.9 c 11. .345 c 28.7 c 21.3 4.0 6.6 1. .1 5.9 6.5 2.0 18.8 c 15.0 3. .8 .1 ..4 c 15..0 .6 3.069 68.4 5. 6...4 3.3 10. 6.8 1..6 6. 1.6 14.8 5. .7 . . 1.645.0 18.3 2.1 6. .2 2.7 2. 3.2 0.1 7.4 4.7 3.3 2.591 29.4 2. 1..541 43.7 1.4 2.8 5.6 .0 9.4 5..2 252.

3.4 20.2 3.2 14. 20.6 3.1 3.861 4.9 1.1 7.7 .3 5.3 2.3 5.5 10..092 5.1 .9 3.2 1.4 .7 5.466 8.8 5.3 1.7 17..7 .8 18.1 .0 3.6 2.3 2.1 1.6 .737 7.0 3.7 ..0 3.6 .0 1.. 1..6 3.0 1. 6.5 c 20.4 .5 8.4 .120 4. . ... 19.2 d 13.2 2. 3.0 5.6 2.3 c 119 Botswana 26. 9.9 7.. 3.6 101 China 9. 10.7 5.0 30.0 3.. 6.3 c 27.2 2.0 3.2 67 Antigua and Barbuda 1.8 4.9 37.9 4.5 2.4 4.9 1..2 .8 3.1 3. .8 11. 4.1 4.2 .0 17.1 13.1 0.7 9. 0.3 d 24.8 113 Moldova.6 11.7 25.7 10.1 3.5 .1 10.6 102 Turkmenistan 41. . 3..2 4...1 7..8 1.5 1. 18.1 1.8 4.7 c 106 Gabon 21.8 14.4 7.4 108 Mongolia 11.5 2.0 3.7 1.269 7.4 2.139 22.3 .6 3.0 2. 1.5 2.9 3.8 9.5 14.4 4.2 8..5 4.0 22.6 72 Dominica 0. .929 7.3 11.3 10.2 0.900 13.4 20. 1. 5.3 3. 1.0 2.6 12. Federated States of 0. 1.9 5.2 2.8 1.3 7.2 c 9.0 84 Oman 72.7 .6 2.9 6.499 4.9 1.9 .5 .5 c 24.834 7.2 3.2 116 Syrian Arab Republic 96.5 3.0 2.7 3.3 .5 9.2 1.5 107 El Salvador 37.1 1.3 2.1 1.3 22.2 3...4 18.5 1..1 .0 12.9 c .4 4.6 5.4 .8 14.651 4.5 2. 3.2 .2 11.4 81 Bosnia and Herzegovina 28.6 5.6 0..7 19.9 2.1 11.199 4. 18.8 92 Sri Lanka 102.3 4.9 4.0 0.5 6.1 3.9 93 Algeria 275..1 Medium human development 95 Tonga 0.8 5..0 c 15.2 3..9 .2 20..3 19.9 11.2 8.7 12. 136 156 13.2 87 Armenia 15..3 67 Trinidad and Tobago 30.2 8.. .3 ...5 3..4 89 Ecuador 109.1 2.8 2.9 2.5 .0 78 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 19.5 3.1 . 3.0 .5 Table 6  Command over resources | 163 .970.8 ..2 6.... 1. 8.8 5..8 1.0 64 Libya 96.008 5.643 8. .2 3.6 108 Bolivia. 8.9 72 Saint Kitts and Nevis 0. 2.896 8.861 11.998 6. 4..4 .8 1.7 3..8 8.4 .258 11.2 1.8 11.9 5.2 3.9 5..Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World ECONOMY GDP (2005 PPP $ billions) HDI rank 2011 GDP per capita (2005 PPP $) 2011 Gross fixed capital Consumer formation Price Index (% of GDP) 2011 (2005 = 100) 2010 2000 General government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP) 2011 Health (% of GDP) 2010 PUBLIC SPENDING Education (% of GDP) 2000 2005–2010b Militarya (% of GDP) 2000 2010 Total debt service (% of GDP) 2000 2009 2010 59 Panama 49.4 4.9 0.4 11.1 c .021.7 1.568 7.0 9.4 .2 4.1 0.0 21.4 23.2 112 Egypt 457..547 2.2 1...9 15.7 11.9 24.9 .3 3.1 8. 4. .9 . 0..0 96 Fiji 3.7 0.9 1..5 0.3 c 25.8 19. 3.443 13. 4.4 9.4 6.9 2.6 19. 116 138 145 113 119 137 168 .4 .5 1.7 1.2 4..3 18.4 1.1 .4 1.074 5. 1. State of ..4 3.8 4.359 12.2 4.4 7.. 142 .2 16.3 3.7 4.1 2.278 7.4 2.9 4.7 18.1 11.7 2.6 1..1 .5 ...1 1. 2. 4.291 10.8 10.3 27.1 1.9 2.9 1..631 2.1 4.5 9.7 10.7 . 0.2 19.2 ..3 22.7 16.2 3.1 5. 0.1 1.776 10. 23.4 114 Uzbekistan 85.3 16..9 c 117 Micronesia...9 2.4 2.6 3.2 2.7 76 Iran.4 96 Belize 2.2 . .2 10. 10. 5.1 8.0 25.. 5.3 .0 .. 6.5 3.5 105 Suriname 3...482 25.3 3.0 4.0 0...6 13.9 14.1 1..8 ..0 1.6 72 Lebanon 54.3 .. 12. 5.6 114 Philippines 344.049 9...7 63 Grenada 1.8 7.3 1. 1.6 10.3 71 Venezuela. 4..0 4.6 64 Serbia 71.3 c 17.2 90 Turkey 991.7 2.330 d 10.. .2 1.2 0.7 .5 82 Azerbaijan 81.4 5.0 5.3 d .3 24.1 96 Dominican Republic 87.0 22. ..9 4.8 4.8 88 Saint Lucia 1. 9..2 2.9 1.809 14.1 2.. .055 7.6 69 Kazakhstan 191.9 4. 23.5 d 19.3 13...4 5. 3.0 .7 4.6 1.7 2..1 4.6 3.4 18. .8 0.7 100 Jordan 32..2 5.6 18.7 3.8 .7 1.8 2..633 7.3 .6 2..6 1.5 .8 2. 0.3 1.9 30..8 3..3 d .6 3..607 8.231 7.3 8.2 4.4 7.4 11. 2. .9 5.9 d 20.7 110 Palestine.. 1.6 .5 70 Albania 25.0 3.3 2.8 .. .3 6.6 2.7 1.9 3.5 16. Plurinational State of 45.2 16.6 16.3 c .9 .8 2.7 1.732 9.9 33.6 c 48.7 6. 1.462 d 9.3 12.6 7.7 2. 3.0 4..6 3.1 4.3 .5 18..5 78 Ukraine 290.3 . 26.258 4.8 2.7 2.9 .2 . .6 d .3 3.8 23.2 4..5 5.3 45.4 5.8 11. 15..5 60. 5.. 5. 111 Paraguay 31.3 3.7 17.8 2.6 80 Mauritius 16.0 0.903 4. 6. Bolivarian Republic of 329.3 3.2 11.7 7.5 5.975 3.9 7..017 3.9 2.5 5.9 8.178 ..9 3.3 11..3 11.6 d . 3.1 .1 3.1 11.4 2.5 2.5 1.. 23.2 3.7 1. 3.9 12.6 5.1 2.8 17.9 2.4 2..2 1. 9. . 1.8 8.752 5. 21.766 12.9 34.2 d 64 Malaysia 394.1 2.2 d 77 Peru 266.1 6.6 3.3 0.8 5.4 19.9 2.6 10.9 4. 3.7 15. 2.8 7.8 16.8 c . .0 94 Tunisia 88.6 .5 1.8 e 1. 10.8 21.4 1.9 17. 5. 24.5 3.0 4. 6.8 4.5 .6 1.9 5.4 2.8 1.3 118 Guyana 2.3 6..8 8.0 7.672 9. .1 3.0 0.5 19.3 .1 2.9 2. 32.2 16.7 6.8 .2 9.6 10.6 38.1 103 Thailand 530. 9.3 3.1 d .0 .2 c 12..9 123 124 158 121 125 114 153 112 155 162 115 163 116 143 105 122 206 115 115 195 137 118 164 124 131 126 179 131 115 124 153 126 172 122 123 131 113 136 127 131 134 115 .418 8. ..8 3.5 1.8 .5 13.2 4.4 5. 3.0 24. 2. .3 17.3 1.4 17..2 14..4 6. 2.8 3.0 3.112 8. 3.1 13.4 2.8 4.7 91 Colombia 415.2 12. .361 d 13.7 c 18..5 1..4 0.2 17.7 5. Republic of 10.3 1.3 3. .2 1. 6.0 .. 25.2 4.5 4..826 12.0 18..3 22.8 0.2 30...2 11. 6.2 1.7 8.8 23.1 .2 2.0 .9 5.4 ..1 13.6 62 Costa Rica 50.6 104 Maldives 2.761 11.1 2.6 0. 21.2 61 Mexico 1.8 5..5 15.3 2.4 1.3 85 Jamaica 19.8 72 Georgia 21.3 .6 0..6 0.741 c 3.5 .7 3.2 23.4 0.5 83 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 1.1 c 85 Brazil 2. .9 4.8 3. 16.2 .939 27..6 2.0 5. 5. Islamic Republic of 765...0 2.0 d .4 18.7 11.9 6. 2.1 c 19.7 20.6 0.104 c 12.110 c 13.0 2.2 ..4 3. 3.8 18.2 20.890 9.4 2.6 c 15.4 3.2 2.5 d .6 8.9 13.032 4. 4.2 e 1..3 2.5 .0 10..3 1.4 12.5 17.7 6..0 3.0 .8 1.451 6..6 96 Samoa 0..466.806 15.1 14.9 10.8 9. 3..0 5..2 .1 5. 140 173 153 127 .3 2.2 14.5 .3 22.0 3.7 5.8 7.

8 60..1 0.0 5.4 3.7 .6 3.034 1.6 10.8 .0 5. 3.8 e .6 1.5 .6 .1 2.3 ..0 1..5 112.4 0.2 34..7 6.8 64.2 11. 7.9 0. ..0 6.8 6. 2.4 1.2 2.2 2.7 .5 16.5 9.8 3.0 4.9 0..5 12. 3. 2. 11. 24..2 4.7 e 0.9 0. 0.. 1.0 4.0 3.4 .8 21..5 .5 29.6 0.2 59..3 1..3 2.7 3.7 2.3 264..... 5.0 2. 2. .0 . .1 4.8 .3 1.3 2.7 31.. 1. .423 2.. 6.1 1.5 .5 29.1 0.6 3.7 2.2 1.2 3. 3.. 1..5 .6 2. 1.4 1.7 7.1 3. .7 1.6 0..013 5.4 2.. . 979 506 1.6 0. 2.2 17. 2.3 d 15.7 1.0 1.0 428..4 1.3 2.3 3.805 1.080 2. 0. 4.. 33.6 3.616 4.652 32. 1.4 1.5 ...2 0.5 0.8 c .6 3..2 5.4 2.0 1.5 4.8 5.9 0.0 0.4 0.363 1.6 51.3 1.255 2.3 1.1 3..4 1.2 2.3 5..2 .7 6.3 9..0 7.6 3.4 11...2 1.2 2.6 2.4 23.0 4.6 1.4 8. 4.8 24.581 980 805 1.3 62..9 11..5 2.2 0.2 2.table 6  Command over resources ECONOMY GDP (2005 PPP $ billions) HDI rank 2011 GDP per capita (2005 PPP $) 2011 Gross fixed capital Consumer formation Price Index (% of GDP) 2011 (2005 = 100) 2010 2000 General government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP) 2011 Health (% of GDP) 2010 PUBLIC SPENDING Education (% of GDP) 2000 2005–2010b Militarya (% of GDP) 2000 2010 Total debt service (% of GDP) 2000 2009 2010 120 Honduras 121 Indonesia 121 Kiribati 121 South Africa 124 Vanuatu 125 Kyrgyzstan 125 Tajikistan 127 Viet Nam 128 Namibia 129 Nicaragua 130 Morocco 131 Iraq 132 Cape Verde 133 Guatemala 134 Timor-Leste 135 Ghana 136 Equatorial Guinea 136 India 138 Cambodia 138 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 140 Bhutan 141 Swaziland Low human development 142 Congo 143 Solomon Islands 144 Sao Tome and Principe 145 Kenya 146 Bangladesh 146 Pakistan 148 Angola 149 Myanmar 150 Cameroon 151 Madagascar 152 Tanzania.0 31.2 1.4 1.5 9.8 164 | Human Development Report 2013 . 2.8 14.7 7.6 4.9 0. 2.9 4. 2.3 .5 . .0 5.8 0..0 1.9 .0 1.3 1.0 35.5 6..4 1.5 .2 6.9 .6 .7 0.2 6.0 8.7 .581 1.6 1.8 22.6 .7 .0 .4 102.9 3.2 .3 .7 4. 18.4 0.9 19.5 2.3 5.6 1.8 2.8 .8 . 3.3 1. 2.6 3. 140 119 167 170 167 141 159 111 171 121 134 134 189 129 152 148 127 134 144 130 152 260 180 145 181 186 225 117 159 151 161 115 133 130 155 141 116 167 150 150 167 129 123 119 155 114 118 156 166 .393 1.2 1. 1.2 3.5 .7 20. 7.7 2.094 2.6 1.1 1. . .102 1.8 .6 24.351 1.0 14. 13.1 1..1 .3 11.6 4.5 1..9 3..5 3.5 c 9.1 3..220 9.349 3.2 .2 .2 .0 2.1 20..9 15.7 2.083 c 1. 11.0 2.4 0. 2.9 .7 3.4 2.. 17.7 1.4 4. 21. .8 5. 5.8 0.9 18.1 0.873 1.4 3.4 .9 d 11..3 3.6 1.3 3. ...4 2.8 0.4 2.5 0.885 2. 3.0 4..4 3.5 0. 3.7 4.. 0..6 3.0 .8 18.566 4..9 1.7 ..3 9..9 0.8 4.7 14. ....6 2.203 2.5 .8 3.1 26.737 2.3 .2 11.0 12.9 0.1 2.1 .5 c 3.. .0 3.1 1.9 2.8 .7 17. 7. 1.5 1.4 0..1 3.3 3.3 . United Republic of 153 Nigeria 154 Senegal 155 Mauritania 156 Papua New Guinea 157 Nepal 158 Lesotho 159 Togo 160 Yemen 161 Haiti 161 Uganda 163 Zambia 164 Djibouti 165 Gambia 166 Benin 167 Rwanda 168 Côte d’Ivoire 169 Comoros 170 Malawi 171 Sudan 172 Zimbabwe 173 Ethiopia 174 Liberia 175 Afghanistan 176 Guinea-Bissau 177 Sierra Leone 178 Burundi 178 Guinea 27.4 0.6 13.4 21.6 1. 9..6 4.0 5.1 .1 0.6 25.0 33.6 1.2 1. 11.2 1.6 1.5 .507 1.0 6.6 3.. 3.5 3.5 5.986 2.5 4.7 6.6 0. ..0 2.8 360.062 2.1 3.1 8.4 3.9 0.4 23.1 28.1 2.0 11.7 7.2 10.3 4.2 .090 853 1. 5.3 1.0 7.3 0.6 .7 ..8 1.0 d 28.568 2..4 d 20. 8.9 0.7 1. .0 0.3 1.9 3.4 .4 9..6 8.3 16.4 d 19.6 3.4 ...6 0.0 2.2 10.4 12..4 9.9 8.7 18.4 83.6 1.8 15.0 3.8 .8 17.1 3..1 0.2 1. 3.7 12. 14. 24.412 3.5 4.4 .5 29.3 8.3 24.096 5.097 1.7 0.060 1.5 4..7 4.8 2..1 1..3 c .8 12.8 .2 18.4 7.4 0.6 7.0 4...2 1.4 .1 0.6 7. .3 23..1 15.5 27.7 30.7 10..9 0...6 33. 36.2 6.8 .8 2.2 4. 1.5 0. 11.8 8. 9.3 17. 18.0 2. 3.6 5.3 d 10.3 0.0 .5 1.0 0. .9 .2 489.9 1..0 19.8 2.1 .9 5...464 5..8 4.7 236.7 4.678 4.2 6. .9 3.7 .5 41.1 37.7 0.7 14.9 14.4 6.7 11..1 15.7 c .6 12.9 e 0.8 10.0 0.6 .5 2.8 2.3 8.1 10.6 5.097 769 533 990 22.8 .0 8.5 . 4.5 10..3 ..2 6.8 20.6 32. 14. .3 13.6 4.7 12.3 3.6 5.5 1.6 10.7 21.8 20..3 8.7 6..1 .3 0.. 83.2 c 1. 1..026 3.2 2.6 .3 15. 1.9 1.0 16. 5. 5.5 14.0 c 16. 30..6 8.7 4.0 1.579 4.4 18.9 26.9 1.2 0..1 1.9 .5 .126 2.2 4.0 .6 0.373 3.1 2.1 3.9 18.. 3. 1.1 3.4 6.1 9.3 6.7 .5 3.6 .0 20. 4.5 .2 0.9 1.7 13.3 9.5 4.9 7.5 19.4 0.3 7.5 3.5 3.3 1.0 1.2 32.6 1..3 2.1 1.4 21.0 9.087 d 1.9 1.1 4.1 2.052 3.0 2.3 .4 .5 2.2 16.. 15.6 4.3 1. 24.1 143. ..7 1.7 3. 3. 15.3 1.4 1.0 1.1 ..2 3.4 9.5 2.6 41.5 1..9 0.7 ..7 2.7 992. . 223 162 141 119 163 163 237 13.7 3.9 1.3 4.9 3.4 . 4.. 2.3 c 9. 4.2 ..9 2.7 1. 30.0 11.1 d 29.976..5 2.3 7.878 .7 2.4 0.1 . 1.1 2. 5. 1.6 7.221 1.9 3.5 2.3 .2 1.3 4.2 . 1.5 13.4 41..3 2.8 1.2 ..0 e 1.6 4.3 1.9 2.4 4...7 10. 41.7 16.3 1. 7.2 2. .0 1.5 5.6 .6 4.5 5..6 1.2 1.188 1.0 1.. 11.7 .5 4.1 .7 1.3 3.2 ..1 2.6 3..6 12.9 18. 5.7 2.2 c 27.. 6.1 0.8 21.428 1. 19.0 5.9 0.. 12. 20.7 3.9 5.9 ..334 2. 21.9 2.424 5.4 20.5 3..6 11.7 11.8 1.4 5....6 0.6 7. 8..5 8.4 1. 5.2 11.3 1...6 7.7 1.201 .6 0. .7 c .6 d 18.2 8.0 5.4 2. 2..3 1.2 14.3 1...9 1.8 4.8 3.504 914 2.0 11.5 3.3 5.0 c 139 146 .9 0.5 . 0.7 25.3 4.. . 4..3 3.0 1.9 41.

. . .6 d ..1 1. . 2... expressed as a percentage of GDP. .8 15. 1..3 2. ..3 2.7 9.5 2.8 8.2 .8 2.3 0.0 5. 4.6 22.. .458 10.org/research/ armaments/milex/milex_database. .. ..7 3. 3... expressed as a percentage of GDP.5 20.9 . expressed as a percentage of GDP.0 1.8 2. and social (or compulsory) health insurance funds.5 6.... .Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World ECONOMY GDP (2005 PPP $ billions) HDI rank 2011 GDP per capita (2005 PPP $) 2011 Gross fixed capital Consumer formation Price Index (% of GDP) 2011 (2005 = 100) 2010 2000 General government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP) 2011 Health (% of GDP) 2010 PUBLIC SPENDING Education (% of GDP) 2000 2005–2010b Militarya (% of GDP) 2000 2010 Total debt service (% of GDP) 2000 2009 2010 180 Central African Republic 181 Eritrea 182 Mali 183 Burkina Faso 184 Chad 185 Mozambique 186 Congo. . . expressed in 2005 international dollars using purchasing power parity rates.6 2.103 10. 6.7 2.0 2.095. . GDP per capita: Sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. .6 20.3 0.. . 116 115 117 157 ..8 7... ...8 1.094 1..4 ...2 3. 4... MAIN DATA SOURCES Columns 1–10: World Bank (2012a).6 .691. . ..5 2. .4 . .9 223. .1 2..9 16. .2 .6 0. .. see the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s Military Expenditure database at www. c Refers to 2010.. . .6 20...3 19.740..1 .346 5..8 . ..3 28.8 . Public spending on health: Current and capital spending from government (central and local) budgets. .3 10.065. . 5.3 2.5 1.2 5. ..6 5.6 .3 . 8.4 1..2 1. 32..9 1..6 4.1 3. .5 2.... or services on long-term debt.4 1.. .9 .3 2. . .5 . 22.1 0. . 117 .343 861 329 642 .. . 1.8 . General government final consumption expenditure: All government current expenditures for purchases of goods and services (including compensation of employees and most expenditures on national defense and security but excluding government military expenditures that are part of government capital formation). . NOTES a For country-specific footnotes.8 18.3 . .6 2. .4 3.5 .3 16. ...2 0.. .. 2.8 2. ..4 2..6 1.. expressed as a percentage of GDP.3 4. 15.. 19.5 13. .0 6. Total debt service: Sum of principal repayments and interest actually paid in foreign currency.2 . . goods.0 . Democratic People’s Rep.2 .3 3. . .4 1.. ..sipri.948.931 11.6 .2 3.7 2.3 1..9 .1 15.231.0 2.1 4.1 1.9 10.8 5.4 2.6 ... .340 10. .3 3..9 1.4 2..3 .1 3.580. ..8 d .623 8. external borrowings and grants (including donations from international agencies and nongovernmental organizations).104 6.. ..2 69. Table 6  Command over resources | 165 .5 1. . Gross fixed capital formation: Value of acquisitions of new or existing fixed assets by the business sector. 16.2 1. 2..7 1. 32.6 1.2 3.7 1.... Columns 11 and 12: SIPRI (2012).203 1.7 11..9 9.3 . . d Refers to 2009. .8 ...9 2.4 21..8 1... 17...0 2. expressed as a percentage of GDP.. 4.2 2...9 ..241 2.2 1.2 2.. Columns 13 and 14: HDRO calculations based on data on total debt service as a percentage of GNI from World Bank (2012a). DEFINITIONS Gross domestic product (GDP): Sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. .7 3....7 15.9 ...7 3.. 37. .. . 18.2 2.3 1.. .6 0. .4 15.6 1.. .8 15...2 ....5 3.. . . interest paid on short-term debt.8 c 24....4 1.5 1.9 ..5 .5 13.8 1..1 4. 2.5 .. ..1 19.3 7.0 2.4 1.6 1.572 5.4 16...4 5. Consumer Price Index: An index that reflects changes in the cost to the average consumer of acquiring a basket of goods and services that may be fixed or changed at specified intervals. . 15.. 6.7 3.5 d ..9 1.4 18. . 2.. 2. .016.946..4 11.8 .0 12. .149 1. . b Data refer to the most recent year available during the period specified..5 3..0 7. 12.5 20.1 27. .. 6.6 3.. 114 .2 8. . governments and households (excluding their unincorporated enterprises) less disposals of fixed assets..8 1.4 716 516 964 1..7 d .7 2.. .. ..2 1.7 0.8 8.2 5...5 0.2 c 12.7 3.7 .6 2.808. 31. .2 1...046.0 3. .. ..9 d 1. .7 17. . .8 . .2 3. .5 1. of Marshall Islands Monaco Nauru San Marino Somalia South Sudan Tuvalu Human Development Index groups Very high human development High human development Medium human development Low human development Regions Arab States East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Least developed countries Small island developing states World 3. 4. .9 1.5 3...3 124 . .. . . .. 8..3 3. .8 12.0 2. . .3 4. 13.0 0.. 2.3 2.8 1.429 3. No adjustment is made for depreciation of fixed assets. .3 .7 4.2 3.3 1.5 4..0 63.586. expressed in international dollars using purchasing power parity rates and divided by total population during the same period. expressed as a percentage of GDP..5 15...1 3..... 15.0 2.1 5... .. Public spending on education: Total public expenditure (current and capital) on education.4 24..5 3. . .1 1.4 38. .8 1. .1 6. 14. . such as yearly. . ..5 4. 0. . 4... Public spending on the military: All expenditures of the defense ministry and other ministries on recruiting and training military personnel and on the construction and purchase of military supplies and equipment.3 11..3 6. — — — — — — — — — — — — — 14. . and repayments (repurchases and charges) to the International Monetary Fund.7 1.8 2. e Refers to 2008. Democratic Republic of the 186 Niger Other countries or territories Korea..1 .7 14.7 3. ....616 12.. . . 22.0 . 14. .2 2.1 10. 1. .. . 19.0 2.

0. 69 42 66 . ...1 0.1 0.1 0.. 0 .0 2.0 0...0 0.8 2.4 1..0 0. . .1 0. .0 0.0 . ..1 . ..0 .. 98 99 98 99 99 98 99 97 99 96 99 98 99 95 99 93 98 94 99 97 98 99 98 99 99 99 98 97 99 98 99 99 93 94 92 96 96 91 90 96 90 94 93 98 .1 0. .0 0. .1 0.1 0.....0 0..0 3.1 0. 0.1 0.0 0..1 .0 ....3 3.9 3..0 0. .8 4.1 0.0 0. 3.1 0. .4 0.7 . 50 . .3 0. .9 3.. ..0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. .7 3.1 0..1 0.6 3..0 0. .1 0. 128 150 133 258 186 284 188 175 . .3 0... . .1 2..1 0. 0.... . ...1 1.0 0. . .0 0..1 0. .6 1.7 1. Republic of 13 Hong Kong.2 3.1 0...0 0. 98 93 96 99 93 98 99 99 98 99 .0 0..3 0.3 0. 0 0 0 0 .. 90 96 93 98 99 94 87 73 99 95 98 99 99 85 98 93 96 94 96 93 99 99 95 99 94 99 95 90 75 98 98 95 .1 0.1 1. 2.1 3.0 0. ... 0 . 3.6 6.0 0.1 0.1 0.9 0..000 people) 2008 (% satisfied) 2007–2009b Very high human development 1 Norway 2 Australia 3 United States 4 Netherlands 5 Germany 6 New Zealand 7 Ireland 7 Sweden 9 Switzerland 10 Japan 11 Canada 12 Korea.1 0. 45 77 . .. .2 .. .0 0.9 2.7 1. .5 3.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0...0 0..3 .8 3.1 0. .6 4.0 0. . . ..4 3.8 3..1 0.. 1. .1 0..0 0.1 ..1 0.1 0.1 0..1 0.. 0.. 0... .2 0.9 3.3 5.1 0... .1 3.1 0. . . 342 343 195 324 233 283 156 375 277 154 420 207 ..9 3. .3 1. 77 95 95 138 106 105 81 76 94 234 184 69 229 136 197 116 274 84 123 284 160 227 153 127 202 324 156 161 229 66 391 219 0. 47 .4 2. . . ... .1 0..1 . .4 . 0 . . ..7 2.3 .0 0. 0 0 .4 3. ... 0..2 0. ... .0 0..0 0.0 0.. 0..3 c .1 0..0 1..5 2..1 0.1 1.1 . .1 0.1 .1 0.2 1.0 0. .. 35 44 166 | Human Development Report 2013 .1 ..1 0.7 . . . ..3 0. 60 81 ... YOUTH Adult Male Infant Underfive Female Male Due to malaria (per 100. .. 121 143 116 131 155 140 98 157 168 113 .0 0. 0 ....1 0..1 0. .0 0.1 ... 0..1 0. 0.2 2...1 3 4 7 4 3 5 3 2 4 2 5 4 .. 65 107 78 105 102 76 117 124 131 94 .0 0. .. 3.. 93 85 98 94 76 95 90 98 95 95 ... .9 2. 0 . 41 57 58 63 44 82 41 44 44 77 74 48 99 80 76 59 95 66 54 105 88 108 60 87 126 117 84 85 110 50 144 90 83 79 134 75 99 86 97 74 74 86 87 109 .1 .7 3.7 Table Health IMMUNIZATION COVERAGE HIV PREVALENCE..000 people per year) 2008 MORTALITY RATES Cause-specific Due to cholera Due to cardiovascular diseases and diabetesa Physicians (per 1.1 .1 0.1 0...1 0.1 3.0 0..0 0.2 0.1 0. 4. 274 580 398 4.0 0... 0.. 0 .. 124 112 156 122 170 138 141 141 114 91 121 141 . .. 0 . .0 0.. 0 0 0 0 0 ... 0. .... .... 2 3 4 4 4 2 3 2 2 4 2 3 2 5 3 3 6 3 5 3 4 7 7 5 17 5 8 5 6 3 8 12 12 5 9 14 4 9 7 15 10 9 11 3 5 8 4 4 6 4 3 5 3 6 5 .2 0.0 0.7 ..1 0.. .0 0. China (SAR) 13 Iceland 15 Denmark 16 Israel 17 Belgium 18 Austria 18 Singapore 20 France 21 Finland 21 Slovenia 23 Spain 24 Liechtenstein 25 Italy 26 Luxembourg 26 United Kingdom 28 Czech Republic 29 Greece 30 Brunei Darussalam 31 Cyprus 32 Malta 33 Andorra 33 Estonia 35 Slovakia 36 Qatar 37 Hungary 38 Barbados 39 Poland 40 Chile 41 Lithuania 41 United Arab Emirates 43 Portugal 44 Latvia 45 Argentina 46 Seychelles 47 Croatia High human development 48 Bahrain 49 Bahamas 50 Belarus 51 Uruguay 52 Montenegro 52 Palau 54 Kuwait 55 Russian Federation 56 Romania 99 97 99 99 97 95 98 99 98 99 92 96 ..1 0.. .. .9 68 60 56 77 47 64 47 81 81 54 73 60 67 87 82 70 88 89 86 84 85 68 84 .0 0..2 0. 0.. . . . .2 0.. . .... 0..0 0. . .0 0.2 ...4 3.2 0. 1.7 3.0 0. .0 0.2 0.1 0..8 3..5 2.2 0.. .0 2.000 adults) 2009 2009 (number) 2005–2010b (per 1..1 . 4.1 0..1 0.0 0. . .5 0.0 0.1 0. .0 0.1 0.....0 0. 294 339 239 525 211 419 . 0.3 1. 45 45 29 ..0 0.1 0.1 0.000 live births) 2010 2010 (per 1. 0.0 0.0 0.. 0. .0 0. 43 65 45 59 50 42 54 56 54 43 ..000 people) 2005–2010b HEALTH CARE QUALITY Satisfaction with health care quality DTP Underweight children (moderate Measles and severe) Female (% of children under age 5) 2006–2010b (% of oneyear-olds) HDI rank 2010 2010 (% ages 15–24) 2009 2009 (deaths per 1.2 0. 1.1 0. 59 90 81 63 45 . . . 2 4 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 5 2 4 3 5 4 4 7 4 6 4 5 8 8 6 20 6 9 7 7 4 10 14 14 6 10 16 6 11 8 19 11 12 14 50 45 78 56 53 57 57 47 43 42 53 46 .5 2.0 0.1 1.. ...1 0.0 4.2 .

..3 0.9 1....0 .. . 1.8 0. 1..6 0.. 11 .0 0.. 61 50 ..7 2.2 .0 4. .7 ..1 1. .. 1. 0 ..2 .1 0..5 4.9 2. 0 ...2 1. .. .1 0...0 0..0 3. .. .2 0.1 ..8 c 8. 64 67 63 83 52 80 . 4.0 0.0 0. 0..0 0. .1 3.. 464 456 215 174 237 159 299 396 278 422 .1 ..0 0. 32 49 .9 3..0 0.0 0..3 2. .7 0. .1 .5 0.4 0...1 . 61 .. 54 69 75 ..4 .1 0. .1 0..2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0. 44 .1 .0 0.1 0.2 1.. . .1 . 0.0 0.6 . 75 .1 0..7 .Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World IMMUNIZATION COVERAGE HIV PREVALENCE. 505 332 ..8 .1 0. 427 696 443 237 . . 0. .2 . 0.4 3. 0. 69 .9 ..5 .0 0.2 3.2 ..2 0.1 . 0.0 0.2 0. Plurinational State of 108 Mongolia 110 Palestine.0 0. 89 .3 1... 0. 4.. 0.. .0 0. .. .000 people) 2008 (% satisfied) 2007–2009b 57 Bulgaria 57 Saudi Arabia 59 Cuba 59 Panama 61 Mexico 62 Costa Rica 63 Grenada 64 Libya 64 Malaysia 64 Serbia 67 Antigua and Barbuda 67 Trinidad and Tobago 69 Kazakhstan 70 Albania 71 Venezuela.. 1.5 1. .000 people) 2005–2010b (% of oneyear-olds) HDI rank 2010 2010 (% ages 15–24) 2009 2009 (deaths per 1.1 0.2 .. 0. 6.5 . Bolivarian Republic of 72 Dominica 72 Georgia 72 Lebanon 72 Saint Kitts and Nevis 76 Iran..8 .0 0.1 0..1 0..2 0. 98 130 134 205 186 120 145 157 115 248 175 175 184 197 225 432 126 196 192 235 166 185 144 123 144 395 219 145 221 204 157 205 224 246 188 173 134 166 275 135 129 135 202 172 263 198 195 142 380 270 97 217 321 281 203 305 .1 2. 1.3 0.1 .4 0. ..4 0. 0... 0.. .4 1. 385 135 465 593 444 398 619 340 455 264 248 537 278 167 362 186 312 277 257 396 256 320 457 427 468 287 773 311 351 351 370 203 290 379 . 0 ...0 0. 0.1 0. 2.. .9 2.7 0..5 3...1 0. . . 0.. 1.8 .4 0.7 3.. 3.1 0.3 7.1 0.1 .9 3.7 0.5 1....0 0.3 1..9 6..1 0.1 . 53 ..1 0.1 . . 0.. 4.0 17.1 .8 0..0 0. 73 48 .. 0.4 21..000 live births) 2010 2010 (per 1.2 0...9 0.3 7.0 0. 59 59 52 50 66 53 41 Table 7  Health | 167 . 2 . . . .. 0 .... .1 0.3 .0 0.2 1.. 1.. . .1 0...7 0.0 0. ..1 0.0 0.3 5. 0.5 3... 66 .2 0.9 0. 249 406 525 3.0 0. 0.1 . 12.0 0.1 .. . 1.0 0.6 . ....1 0.. .1 0.0 0. Islamic Republic of 77 Peru 78 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 78 Ukraine 80 Mauritius 81 Bosnia and Herzegovina 82 Azerbaijan 83 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 84 Oman 85 Brazil 85 Jamaica 87 Armenia 88 Saint Lucia 89 Ecuador 90 Turkey 91 Colombia 92 Sri Lanka 93 Algeria 94 Tunisia Medium human development 95 Tonga 96 Belize 96 Dominican Republic 96 Fiji 96 Samoa 100 Jordan 101 China 102 Turkmenistan 103 Thailand 104 Maldives 105 Suriname 106 Gabon 107 El Salvador 108 Bolivia.4 .1 . .. ..3 0.1 .0 0. . 0. 0. ...1 11 15 5 17 14 9 9 13 5 6 7 24 29 16 16 11 20 19 7 22 15 10 11 13 8 39 19 8 17 20 18 14 18 14 17 14 31 14 13 14 22 15 17 18 16 47 11 14 27 54 14 42 26 20 21 19 16 13 18 6 20 17 10 11 17 6 7 8 27 33 18 18 12 22 22 8 26 19 12 13 15 8 46 21 9 19 24 20 16 20 18 19 17 36 16 16 17 27 17 20 22 18 56 13 15 31 74 16 54 32 22 25 22 19 86 102 78 82 88 69 143 101 95 90 158 120 185 88 92 103 97 85 90 90 96 79 148 99 67 134 110 85 102 131 103 90 96 73 80 82 105 70 233 129 149 157 167 111 87 212 139 70 124 262 128 132 141 .3 0. 2. 0. . 3.6 1.1 .0 0.....0 0.7 .0 0. .2 3..4 3... .0 0. ..4 7.4 2... 168 215 309 0.1 ... 0 . 0 ..1 .1 0. ....9 1.1 0. 5.3 0.0 0.1 . 0. 0..1 . 4 . 1. ..7 0. 0.0 0. 0.... .0 0. Republic of 96 98 98 98 96 96 99 98 98 97 99 96 99 99 90 99 99 83 98 99 97 98 96 99 95 80 99 99 99 99 98 98 99 97 96 99 99 98 99 99 96 99 97 98 99 99 99 97 99 69 97 87 98 ... 8.. 0 0 .2 7.1 .0 0.0 0.4 0..1 0.4 6. 0 .1 0..5 31.9 1.3 0.0 0.1 0...4 0..0 ... .5 0.2 0..... 0.. .0 0.000 people per year) 2008 Due to cholera HEALTH CARE QUALITY Satisfaction with health care quality DTP Underweight children (moderate Measles and severe) Female (% of children under age 5) 2006–2010b Male Due to cardiovascular diseases and diabetesa Physicians (per 1.. .. 50 58 .3 . 3.0 0.1 0.9 5.1 0.9 0. ..5 1. 85 .. YOUTH Adult Male Infant Underfive Female MORTALITY RATES Cause-specific Due to malaria (per 100.5 .6 1. 0..0 0...0 0.1 ... 0 ..0 .2 0. .7 0.1 .8 2.9 3. . 96 97 93 97 98 99 95 95 83 95 98 96 95 98 92 99 99 79 99 94 53 99 99 94 98 94 99 93 67 99 97 99 88 97 95 98 97 88 99 95 97 99 98 79 94 61 98 99 99 98 97 89 55 92 79 97 .9 2. 1... 94 96 97 . ..... .0 . 1. .0 0..1 1.7 .. 23 . State of 111 Paraguay 112 Egypt 113 Moldova. .1 ... . 0. 0 . 0 . . ..000 adults) 2009 2009 (number) 2005–2010b (per 1.2 3.

0 15. 19 .8 0.0 1.8 13.1 0.1 0.7 103.2 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.2 0. 15. 8..8 0.3 5. 74 .0 0.5 8.0 9.1 12.3 0.3 0. 60 .2 0.0 1.6 22. 0.9 ..7 0.6 13. YOUTH Adult Male Infant Underfive Female MORTALITY RATES Cause-specific Due to malaria (per 100. 51 33 6 0 3 .3 0. 52 78 .9 0.1 0.9 0..2 15.0 0.6 0.1 0.9 3. .2 0. 12.2 0.6 0.3 ..1 0..1 . 67 75 69 .9 0... 0. United Republic of 153 Nigeria 154 Senegal 155 Mauritania 156 Papua New Guinea 157 Nepal 158 Lesotho 159 Togo 160 Yemen 161 Haiti 161 Uganda 163 Zambia 164 Djibouti 165 Gambia 166 Benin 167 Rwanda 168 Côte d’Ivoire 169 Comoros 170 Malawi 89 99 89 90 99 98 99 94 97 73 78 99 95 93 87 99 99 81 99 96 75 96 65 83 93 81 94 95 90 85 98 93 98 90 97 93 92 78 98 77 80 82 80 85 93 97 94 83 83 99 90 99 94 92 95 81 97 88 98 82 80 95 94 99 89 89 65 52 99 94 98 75 99 98 73 96 93 66 93 51 74 93 64 95 94 76 68 92 86 94 86 93 88 79 67 92 71 60 67 55 86 85 84 73 59 55 91 85 97 69 82 70 72 93 21.1 18.1 83.0 0. .0 . 0 0 .0 0. 0 0 1 110 0 94 174 458 70 0 0 0 15 3 3.3 0.0 36. 22 . ..1 0..7 13.2 5..0 4.9 1. 0..0 1.3 31...0 0.1 3.0 10.. 4. 57 64 74 68 66 .1 0.1 15.5 .0 48..1 0.3 0.9 . 35 48 53 56 . 24 0 .3 4.1 0..3 3.1 14.2 8.6 43.1 0.9 0.0 0.0 0. 56 . 63 ..4 38.3 0..0 8.5 11. .1 3.7 c . 33 21 .1 0.. .. 44 .3 0..1 41..1 0.6 . 54 82 30 55 57 31 .2 0.2 0.2 0. 0 ..1 1. ..2 0...6 . 0.0 20.0 116.2 2..9 . 0 .0 0.6 2.1 16.9 1.3 2.2 0.8 11.2 93..0 c 44.1 1.1 5.5 0.3 5....1 2. .4 0.5 0.3 ..4 0. ..1 17.0 1.1 0.9 14.1 2.8 23. .3 15. 0.4 0. 0..0 121. 0.3 0..5 1. 62 69 41 62 .4 0. 13.. 0 0 ..6 16. .2 2. 34 . 0.000 people) 2008 (% satisfied) 2007–2009b 114 Philippines 114 Uzbekistan 116 Syrian Arab Republic 117 Micronesia. ..1 0.0 2 .1 0.5 87.1 0.7 1.4 ..6 .9 2.7 15.0 0.3 121.6 2.9 2.9 0.1 .1 0.0 0..2 8..000 people) 2005–2010b (% of oneyear-olds) HDI rank 2010 2010 (% ages 15–24) 2009 2009 (deaths per 1..0 81 ..2 0...0 98.6 c 22..8 0.. 10.1 .3 1.0 105.0 0.6 89.7 14.2 2.000 people per year) 2008 Due to cholera HEALTH CARE QUALITY Satisfaction with health care quality DTP Underweight children (moderate Measles and severe) Female (% of children under age 5) 2006–2010b Male Due to cardiovascular diseases and diabetesa Physicians (per 1..5 0. 63 72 68 79 . .1 0.5 .4 11.6 0.8 0.1 0.8 11.1 0.8 0.4 15.1 29..4 0.000 adults) 2009 2009 (number) 2005–2010b (per 1..1 6.5 0..2 0.6 0.1 0.8 0. 1. Federated States of 118 Guyana 119 Botswana 120 Honduras 121 Indonesia 121 Kiribati 121 South Africa 124 Vanuatu 125 Kyrgyzstan 125 Tajikistan 127 Viet Nam 128 Namibia 129 Nicaragua 130 Morocco 131 Iraq 132 Cape Verde 133 Guatemala 134 Timor-Leste 135 Ghana 136 Equatorial Guinea 136 India 138 Cambodia 138 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 140 Bhutan 141 Swaziland Low human development 142 Congo 143 Solomon Islands 144 Sao Tome and Principe 145 Kenya 146 Bangladesh 146 Pakistan 148 Angola 149 Myanmar 150 Cameroon 151 Madagascar 152 Tanzania. 13.table 7  Health IMMUNIZATION COVERAGE HIV PREVALENCE.0 34.1 0..3 .0 31.5 1.0 30.2 0..3 0.1 0.2 .1 0.2 0. 321 399 605 523 339 495 234 355 424 300 190 318 386 484 336 408 430 425 499 463 367 308 363 418 422 483 369 498 376 427 456 373 422 428 350 452 403 494 411 473 518 490 417 454 408 536 450 587 1.1 6.0 0.4 0...0 0.6 5.2 0.8 0. .. 2..2 12.0 87.1 65. 0.5 0.0 146.5 28.9 5.0 45. 28 .7 1.0 1.1 3.7 5.9 18.0 58.2 .6 0. 0.7 c 18.1 0.0 76.. 0.1 13..1 .0 104. 4.1 0.1 .2 0..6 c 4.8 0. 1. 0.0 0..7 0.8 8....7 2. 80 . 1.6 5.1 0.4 11.3 4.1 0.4 .0 0..2 0.8 0.6 6.3 0.2 16.2 16.1 23 44 14 34 25 36 20 27 39 41 12 33 52 19 29 23 30 31 29 25 46 50 81 48 43 42 44 55 61 23 53 55 38 70 98 50 84 43 50 88 50 75 47 41 65 66 57 70 63 69 73 57 73 59 86 63 58 29 52 16 42 30 48 24 35 49 57 14 38 63 23 40 27 36 39 36 32 55 74 121 63 51 54 56 78 93 27 80 85 48 87 161 66 136 62 76 143 75 111 61 50 85 103 77 165 99 111 91 98 115 91 123 86 92 130 139 95 161 224 324 134 143 173 479 159 162 160 107 357 122 87 145 111 151 154 253 355 169 190 251 194 560 320 119 104 282 222 189 353 188 409 198 311 365 218 262 221 159 573 278 180 227 348 477 271 246 246 258 456 229 496 240 220 159 183 286 372 237 234 325 521 200 327 183 173 540 210 126 292 272 280 233 402 373 250 350 289 256 674 409 170 161 358 246 225 377 275 420 273 456 377 266 315 274 234 676 338 237 278 539 580 326 296 385 304 528 284 691 0. 42.990 98 7 27 13 11 0 6 0 11 345 641 400 412 452 346 376 350 .6 0.1 .8 0.000 live births) 2010 2010 (per 1.1 0.6 1.0 0. . 66 168 | Human Development Report 2013 .6 .7 0.1 18.3 0.1 ..

1 15. . 0.. .. ...0 239. . 46 47 31 .0 0.8 24. 0.000 live births.. Column 12: HDRO calculations based on data on female deaths and male deaths due to cardiovascular diseases and diabetes from WHO (2012b) and population data from UNDESA (2011).1 0.. expressed per 1. . . 50 ..0 0. Infant mortality rate: Probability of dying between birth and exactly age 1. Cause-specific deaths: Deaths attributable to a certain disease or cause. of Marshall Islands Monaco Nauru San Marino Somalia South Sudan Tuvalu Human Development Index groups Very high human development High human development Medium human development Low human development Regions Arab States East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Least developed countries Small island developing states World 99 94 90 75 86 92 96 99 75 64 99 90 98 71 77 67 80 94 99 99 99 95 55 .. 10. 33 6 18 42 110 48 24 21 23 65 120 108 70 55 275 574 379 337 352 369 363 407 337 470 179 218 262 384 434 331 224 126 386 51 303 48 350 ..6 0..3 .3 1.5 0.0 235. 11 and 13: WHO (2012b)...0 40. 9.2 0.2 c 18.0 0.7 33.2 1.. . . .0 192.0 98...1 0.3 24... Columns 3–5: UNICEF (2012). expressed per 1. Satisfaction with heath care quality: Percentage of respondents who answered “yes” to the Gallup World Poll question.0 0. .6 1. 548 324 508 437 675 513 440 464 520 498 383 406 463 500 512 477 381 303 .3 .5 1. .0 40. ..0 0. 66 51 68 74 103 92 114 88 81 106 42 99 93 99 92 112 73 26 22 3 32 2 108 . ..3 1.9 2. . .. 1.3 0. Column 7: Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (2012).0 3. YOUTH Adult Male Infant Underfive Female MORTALITY RATES Cause-specific Due to malaria (per 100. 44 50 42 69 .. . .. .. . Democratic Republic of the 186 Niger Other countries or territories Korea.0 .000 live births) 2010 2010 (per 1. Column 14: Gallup (2012). 45 57 65 .. 22.0 193.. . . 255 114 221 204 346 198 168 281 181 245 430 357 207 211 23. 4.1 21. .. . 99 98 97 90 87 93 97 98 96 86 84 88 89 91 90 84 81 64 62 61 82 92 51 62 99 63 94 46 70 68 71 99 97 99 99 93 46 . .4 0... . ..2 2.5 3.6 12..7 30. .0 0.5 .. .0 184..4 . . regional cause of death patterns.4 48 27 19 38 46 . .2 0. .. HIV prevalence: Percentage of the population ages 15–24 who are infected with HIV... ..5 26. 1... expressed per 1..000 adults. ... .000 people.9 c 32.0 0.7 .5 0.3 18. 31.6 2. ..6 ...8 . 0..Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World IMMUNIZATION COVERAGE HIV PREVALENCE. .6 .. 0.3 65..0 171.6 .0 1.8 . NOTES a Estimates are age-standardized and based on a combination of country life tables.4 1.. Adult mortality rate: Probability that a 15-year-old person will die before reaching age 60.7 .0 0. . . expressed per 1.6 . 0.. .7 26.8 20. 8 and 9: WHO (2012a).000 people) 2008 (% satisfied) 2007–2009b 171 Sudan 172 Zimbabwe 173 Ethiopia 174 Liberia 175 Afghanistan 176 Guinea-Bissau 177 Sierra Leone 178 Burundi 178 Guinea 180 Central African Republic 181 Eritrea 182 Mali 183 Burkina Faso 184 Chad 185 Mozambique 186 Congo.. cause of death models.3 0.0 1.0 0..0 0. 0.. ...1 28.. 150 357 324 450 409 305 492 236 360 447 459 342 323 0. 0. .2 0..8 0... ... 1.8 2.7 . . Columns 6. b Data are for the most recent year available during the period specified.2 14. .0 0.. 0.7 131. Under-five mortality rate: Probability of dying between birth and exactly age 5.0 0....5 8....0 3.2 21. .. “In this country...182 ..0 0.. .1 0.1 .4 3.2 1. and World Health Organization and Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS estimates for some major causes (not including chronic diseases). 46 .1 0..0 221. 138 .0 0.0 0.2 0. 4.000 people per year) 2008 Due to cholera HEALTH CARE QUALITY Satisfaction with health care quality DTP Underweight children (moderate Measles and severe) Female (% of children under age 5) 2006–2010b Male Due to cardiovascular diseases and diabetesa Physicians (per 1.5 2. 572 .9 18. ...0 165...000 people) 2005–2010b (% of oneyear-olds) HDI rank 2010 2010 (% ages 15–24) 2009 2009 (deaths per 1.011 26 0 18 0 399 0 18 107 0 0 76 16 14 24 244 55 .3 203. 0.... 0.6 98.0 28.. 27 5 16 33 73 36 20 17 18 50 76 71 41 40 103 80 106 103 149 150 174 142 130 159 61 178 176 173 135 170 143 33 26 4 40 2 180 . . .1 .0 .000 adults) 2009 2009 (number) 2005–2010b (per 1.. .1 0. 280 60 105 132 287 139 103 118 99 173 355 282 155 137 291 672 445 389 440 431 414 424 474 461 249 357 443 412 557 442 229 207 429 112 448 57 382 . .2 40.. 2. Immunization coverage for measles: Percentage of one-year-olds who have received at least one dose of a measles vaccine..9 2.4 1. . ... c Data differ from standard definition or refer to only part of the country.1 62. tetanus toxoid and pertussis (DTP) vaccine. ..0 0. .000 live births. 62 .2 .0 0. 2.4 34.2 27...0 0. ......0 0...2 0.. 0.2 3.0 9. 0. 0. do you have confidence in the healthcare or medical systems?” MAIN DATA SOURCES Columns 1.1 0... Democratic People’s Rep. DEFINITIONS Immunization coverage for DTP: Percentage of one-year-olds who have received three doses of the combined diphtheria. ....0 39. Physicians: Number of physicians (both generalists and specialists). ... . . . . .5 1.. .3 .6 1. Table 7  Health | 169 .. Underweight children: Percentage of children under age 5 falling two standard deviations or more below the median weight-for-age of the reference population.. . .. .3 6. 85 94 95 85 78 87 95 96 93 78 75 78 72 85 27.6 .1 . 86 190 ...9 . .0 10.1 0.2 0. .0 1.7 25.

98..4 6.4 ... ..0 45..0 78.5 64.0 117.4 69.0 104.6 3.2 92.7 99. 46..0 104. .0 89.9 94. .9 .5 58..0 95. 60. 67.0 129.6 1.7 h 90.7 64.2 94.0 104.9 51.8 63.9 70.5 49.6 e 69.0 84. . .9 59.4 55.0 99.0 101.2 15..0 75. .. 459 424 498 514 487 526 513 519 487 494 534 529 527 546 555 507 503 447 515 496 562 497 541 501 483 536 483 489 492 493 466 .0 100.0 106.0 97..0 74......7 h 97.. .9 73. 99.. . . 0... .0 107. ...3 .4 94..0 105.0 96...1 6.8 h 91.0 107.0 .2 64. .0 99.3 99.0 102.0 99.3 99. .8 ..6 e 64.0 94.0 33.7 91.0 96.. 91 85 .4 2. .0 97.9 4. 100..0 103.0 104.. .2 e 38.9 99. .0 119.5 67. 64.0 98..0 103. ..0 97. 97..3 0..0 108. .8 99. .0 1..0 83.4 50. . 99.0 119..0 99. .0 102. Republic of 13 Hong Kong.6 3.0 107.0 101.6 . . 87.1 79. 1.8 76..0 99..6 75.1 71.. 4.7 54. . 427 401 .5 e ..2 .0 70. 42. 508 447 491 466 j 493 494 401 .6 99..6 98.. .. ..8 f 88.8 10.9 .0 100.7 .0 106...8 77. .4 56. .2 77..0 106.0 101.5 59. 54.0 108.0 102. ... 58.0 73.6 h 97. .0 118.0 103.1 g .0 120. China (SAR) 13 Iceland 15 Denmark 16 Israel 17 Belgium 18 Austria 18 Singapore 20 France 21 Finland 21 Slovenia 23 Spain 24 Liechtenstein 25 Italy 26 Luxembourg 26 United Kingdom 28 Czech Republic 29 Greece 30 Brunei Darussalam 31 Cyprus 32 Malta 33 Andorra 33 Estonia 35 Slovakia 36 Qatar 37 Hungary 38 Barbados 39 Poland 40 Chile 41 Lithuania 41 United Arab Emirates 43 Portugal 44 Latvia 45 Argentina 46 Seychelles 47 Croatia High human development 48 Bahrain 49 Bahamas 50 Belarus 51 Uruguay 52 Montenegro 52 Palau 54 Kuwait 55 Russian Federation 56 Romania .0 10.6 61..0 103. 85 79 90 101 98 96 101 107 97 100 96 100 90 82 87 95 92 107 105 102 104 103 89 94 87 87 97 104 99 97 92 .0 119.1 .0 106.3 f 40. .0 . 91.9 96. ..3 62. 81 96 98 92 .0 91. 99.4 f 72.0 117.0 62.. ...0 102.0 98.3 4...9 85..7 f 86. .. 65.9 63.4 66.9 113.4 .6 f 80. 460 .4 47. 99.5 0.6 ...9 75..6 37.0 103..6 . 48...5 2. 4.8 62. .7 65.0 63.9 99.8 51. . .4 f 78. 97 87 .5 0.0 97. 83.0 114.. .0 95. 90 79 .5 62..4 98....0 102. 83 90 115 90 . 87 81 85 106 j 83 78 102 .. 96.4 .8 98.5 58.8 Table Education EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT GROSS ENROLMENT RATIO Primary school teachers trained to teach EDUCATION QUALITY Performance of 15-year-old students Satisfaction with education quality Primary school dropout rate (% of primary school cohort) 2002–2011d Population with at least Adult literacy secondary education Primary Secondary Tertiary rate (% ages 15 and older) HDI rank 2005–2010d Mean score Deviation from mean (% ages 25 and older) 2010 d (%) d d (%) d Readinga 2009 Mathematicsb 2009 Sciencec 2009 Reading 2009 Mathematics 2009 Science 2009 (% satisfied) 2011 2002–2011 2002–2011 2002–2011 2005–2011 Very high human development 1 Norway 2 Australia 3 United States 4 Netherlands 5 Germany 6 New Zealand 7 Ireland 7 Sweden 9 Switzerland 10 Japan 11 Canada 12 Korea.6 . 63. 95. ..4 62. 100. ..5 49. .0 105.. .1 .7 h 95.0 89.3 .8 111. .0 85.6 86. 90 90 85 94 91 89 98 96 86 94 99 94 88 89 95 91 87 104 104 96 104 101 82 95 91 88 93 98 87 93 89 .0 93. .0 102.8 f 74.2 52..9 56.7 80.. 89 83 86 107 j 87 80 108 . . ..4 100.0 88.. .. . .. .0 f 89.0 114.0 108.2 60.2 2.. .0 70..7 73.6 2.0 100.9 h ..8 . .2 34. .7 74.8 .9 83. 486 .0 95.9 72..6 2..0 102.1 74. 85 ..0 96..0 102. 528 490 379 503 . ..5 60.5 ..5 1.5 81.3 65..0 90. .4 11.8 58..0 98. 1.8 81.0 95.9 .0 92.. 427 403 . 503 515 500 508 497 521 496 497 501 520 524 542 533 500 495 474 506 470 526 496 536 483 481 499 486 472 494 478 483 .0 110.0 111.0 51. . ..6 58..0 100.0 98.6 59. .7 20. 1..0 117.3 .0 106.5 0.0 .7 .0 104.0 101.... .4 2. . .0 120...5 59.3 0. 478 428 91 99 97 89 95 103 95 99 93 100 90 79 84 96 84 112 102 100 97 106 86 91 88 83 96 104 95 92 95 . .9 . 99.2 62... 88 .. .6 66.1 80.2 h 98..6 61.9 21..5 . 49....0 99.5 88.5 .. 82. .... .3 91..0 96. . 84 95 104 86 . .8 44.0 f 66.0 62.0 103.4 h .........0 99. 72..0 60...2 71.. .0 100. .0 95.1 98. 501 477 372 494 .0 96..4 . 49.0 108. 99 93 ...0 87.0 .6 .8 64..2 0.. . 100.... .. 512 497 368 490 . 96.3 4..4 84. .0 61.0 113.9 h .3 6.0 95.1 1. 476 .0 107.0 .8 h ..0 54.0 101..4 2.8 60.2 i 99.2 10.0 89.8 h 91. . ..9 e 71.3 47. 88 .4 100. ....0 101..0 ..0 100.4 94.5 f 98. 93. ...7 89.0 3...0 90.. .0 100.0 106. 0. 468 427 500 527 502 522 520 532 508 495 517 539 529 538 549 496 499 455 507 494 542 498 554 512 488 520 489 484 514 500 470 . .. 94.5 60..0 95. .8 62. . .. . . .0 i ..0 113.5 i 98. .8 h 97. ..9 94.4 .0 101. .5 62.4 22...2 0.0 101. 88 80 88 99 j 91 79 93 . 55.5 99..0 110. 5.9 4..0 98. 500 449 468 459 j 489 484 398 ..5 91.2 h 95. ...8 98.. ..8 75.5 83.1 63.. . ... 495 421 477 453 j 487 482 388 . .5 18..3 h 92. .0 63.2 .5 0..0 107.3 .0 90.0 95. 426 408 .2 .. .9 170 | Human Development Report 2013 ..1 f 100. 49..0 97..4 17. 61. 6.0 105.. .. 0.8 62.

.7 52...0 . 404 ..5 54..0 75.0 80. 94 .0 .0 . 113 . 99....6 e . Plurinational State of 108 Mongolia 110 Palestine...3 .1 73. 85 .. .. . 370 .7 ..4 86. .... 24. Islamic Republic of 77 Peru 78 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 78 Ukraine 80 Mauritius 81 Bosnia and Herzegovina 82 Azerbaijan 83 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 84 Oman 85 Brazil 85 Jamaica 87 Armenia 88 Saint Lucia 89 Ecuador 90 Turkey 91 Colombia 92 Sri Lanka 93 Algeria 94 Tunisia Medium human development 95 Tonga 96 Belize 96 Dominican Republic 96 Fiji 96 Samoa 100 Jordan 101 China 102 Turkmenistan 103 Thailand 104 Maldives 105 Suriname 106 Gabon 107 El Salvador 108 Bolivia..5 h 92.2 54..6 90.8 h 92.0 98..0 .0 96.. .0 105... ...4 38. ..0 100.... 421 ...0 109.. .. 91 .3 88..0 103.0 103...6 30.. . .3 7. 91.0 92.0 88..0 36..4 91.0 87. ... .2 4.0 100.. .. .8 h 94.2 84.2 54. 445 381 . . 46.1 f 62...1 96.0 106.7 .7 .9 35.4 40.7 6. 369 . . . ... . .6 89.0 53..7 h 95. ...3 h 99. ..4 6.0 106.0 182. 100..6 77..2 26..6 f . . . 401 ...7 88. ... .0 105. 36. .. .5 24.... 68...5 16.1 61.0 89.1 15... ... . .0 54.... 91 80 k .8 95.4 8. .4 h 94.6 34..0 111... .4 f 85.. . ...0 .5 ..0 114. 92.1 ... . 439 .9 49.0 f 34.. 83 103 k .0 90.2 i 93..9 67.3 2..9 97.. ..8 94. 414 405 377 .5 5. 74.2 6.9 100.0 90.6 100. .5 34.. Republic of 98..... 91. 376 416 ..0 100. .9 54.9 19.3 86. 387 600 k .9 ... 81 79 ....6 f 69... . 108 87 89 . 61... . .3 h 99...0 108... . .3 .9 42.1 37. . 360 419 .0 113.0 105. 431 ..0 96. 12.0 81..9 53.... .. .. 66. ..0 78. . . .0 83. . . . State of 111 Paraguay 112 Egypt 113 Moldova. .6 97..0 86.0 94.0 121. 70. 99 83 91 . 454 402 .0 100.9 1..6 h . .. . ..0 108...6 f 94.4 11..0 . .1 . 88... . . .6 h 93.0 99.7 68... 386 . 91...3 62...0 74.. 79 .. 371 . .0 90.. .0 96. 2.9 63.1 7. ..8 6. 72 . . .0 16. 81 .0 93. . .6 98. . .0 .2 25.0 85.0 80. .. . .8 35.8 .5 86...0 105.4 f 52.4 60.3 99.9 95.5 21. . .0 86.0 . .1 29... ... 85.9 3.8 39.2 f 93. .0 75.6 .0 89.. .2 49... .0 89....7 h 89. ..0 86. 59.0 112. .3 .0 94. . . 13.6 h 99...0 65.2 h .7 .. 4. .. ....2 6. .5 57. .. ..1 83.0 101... 365 .0 f .3 5.5 2.. 415 575 k .. 429 .0 85.. 81 81 . .0 109.. 443 .. 10. 49.5 80..4 f 37..5 91. ... . ..0 87.5 36. 65. .5 65. . .0 85.5 41.. 428 .0 96.9 ....8 18..3 71... .0 92.7 73.8 34..2 64.0 115.Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT GROSS ENROLMENT RATIO Primary school teachers trained to teach EDUCATION QUALITY Performance of 15-year-old students Satisfaction with education quality Primary school dropout rate (% of primary school cohort) 2002–2011d Population with at least Adult literacy secondary education Primary Secondary Tertiary rate (% ages 15 and older) HDI rank 2005–2010d Mean score Deviation from mean (% ages 25 and older) 2010 d (%) d d (%) d Readinga 2009 Mathematicsb 2009 Sciencec 2009 Reading 2009 Mathematics 2009 Science 2009 (% satisfied) 2011 2002–2011 2002–2011 2002–2011 2005–2011 57 Bulgaria 57 Saudi Arabia 59 Cuba 59 Panama 61 Mexico 62 Costa Rica 63 Grenada 64 Libya 64 Malaysia 64 Serbia 67 Antigua and Barbuda 67 Trinidad and Tobago 69 Kazakhstan 70 Albania 71 Venezuela. .0 88.0 91.... .7 . .0 97.9 53. 9. .4 43. .0 114.5 67..3 e 62.0 115..8 3.0 52...4 58.0 110.4 5. .7 81.. 77. . . . . . .. 94. 99 85 .. 84 .8 Table 8  Education | 171 ..0 108.. .6 50.. 45... 84 . 23.6 99.8 2....0 68.0 103. 9..8 54..4 79.2 36.....5 f 49.. . . . .. ..7 f .. 53.0 105. .9 72.6 e 53.0 110.5 .1 73. 74 .2 26..0 84.8 93.0 108... 371 425 .0 108.0 110.0 114..3 103. .0 99.3 81.0 11. 67...5 91. . 63.9 h 99..0 71...0 102..0 100. ..5 21. 89.7 3. .0 110.0 105..7 44.. .8 h 99. . . .7 77. ..1 16.0 107. 97.0 102.... .0 e 53..9 78...0 101. . 32. ..8 e ...9 24.6 27.9 93. .. 410 400 391 ..0 95. .0 109. 373 .. 100. . 98 .7 ..8 45. 405 556 k . 78 .2 97.4 61.0 103. .0 40.6 .. ..2 15. 416 390 385 . . 93 75 .. . .. .6 93. 86.2 42..0 89. .6 54.. 113 91 100 . ...0 89..5 44.8 . ... . .8 88... .5 1. .0 88. 89.9 19... 76 ..0 91.0 97. 412 ..9 90.0 83.1 .5 40. .1 e 54...4 .4 38.0 67. ...1 3. ... 84 .0 98. .0 111....3 1.6 . .. 81 . 47. . 73. . 99.6 f 77. 362 .. .8 82.5 h 97.5 72... .1 36... .0 109. . ..8 8. 89 82 k . .0 98.0 94.. ..8 62. 442 ... .0 93. . .4 .3 9. .3 39.. 2.9 49. .2 44..4 26.7 .. 442 ..4 i 84.2 . .6 74. 99.5 30.9 11.. .0 84.3 50.0 . 90 77 .. 464 413 ....0 . . .0 53. .6 95.. .. 91. ... .2 57..0 5.3 49..6 94.0 f 42. .....6 i 99. 64 ..7 45.6 .3 h 99. 83. 90 .. .8 e . ..7 67.. 6.4 94. .. 77.6 52...4 78. .. .0 76..0 74. .1 .1 99. .2 . . 92...0 96.0 25..5 11.1 f 53.0 93.. . . 405 . 106 .7 h 88... .0 91. Bolivarian Republic of 72 Dominica 72 Georgia 72 Lebanon 72 Saint Kitts and Nevis 76 Iran..2 . ..6 . 82 87 . 419 ..8 7.4 f . .5 82....6 9. . .7 24.5 100.0 99. 425 . .. .6 53.0 .0 81.. . ..0 .5 98. 35..5 72.5 43.6 0. .9 51.3 4.. .. .0 100.9 .0 18. 99 .0 127.. 98.0 101.1 100. .5 e 66.8 25.. 2. .0 87.2 72.0 51.6 28. . 89 . .. . 79..7 .1 93.0 105.0 89....0 91. 80 .

. ...8 16.1 63..0 68. .0 118..2 88.7 76..4 .0 104..... . .4 87.0 32..1 96.5 73..2 h 58. ..0 64. .. ...0 106. ....7 22.3 16..... .. ... ....4 95.0 143.1 78.0 84.0 59. . .4 80.0 108.5 42.. .3 h 49...0 27.0 127.0 46....2 e 39.8 f 27.. .. 69 ..4 h 56.5 8. .. ...9 .5 ..7 f 15. ..0 85. .. ..9 4.0 110..3 30. .0 24.0 h 42...0 18. . 38..1 f 31..8 . ..5 13.0 41.6 .. 68..0 57.0 54. . ...0 88.0 28. United Republic of 153 Nigeria 154 Senegal 155 Mauritania 156 Papua New Guinea 157 Nepal 158 Lesotho 159 Togo 160 Yemen 161 Haiti 161 Uganda 163 Zambia 164 Djibouti 165 Gambia 166 Benin 167 Rwanda 168 Côte d’Ivoire 169 Comoros 170 Malawi 95..4 63.table 8 Education EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT GROSS ENROLMENT RATIO Primary school teachers trained to teach EDUCATION QUALITY Performance of 15-year-old students Satisfaction with education quality Primary school dropout rate (% of primary school cohort) 2002–2011d Population with at least Adult literacy secondary education Primary Secondary Tertiary rate (% ages 15 and older) HDI rank 2005–2010d Mean score Deviation from mean (% ages 25 and older) 2010 d (%) d d (%) d Readinga 2009 Mathematicsb 2009 Sciencec 2009 Reading 2009 Mathematics 2009 Science 2009 (% satisfied) 2011 2002–2011 2002–2011 2002–2011 2005–2011 f 114 Philippines 114 Uzbekistan 116 Syrian Arab Republic 117 Micronesia.9 7..0 11... ..0 117... . .5 96. . .0 126.4 .0 53...6 40.0 115. 24. .4 f ..0 102. 4. ....8 4..4 3.0 91. .9 35. .. .4 27. .0 87....5 73.0 f 29. 66.0 111. 44.0 59.4 18..7 .. .. .. .0 85... 330 ..6 3.. . .1 47.1 h 56.0 ...6 5.. 50..1 6.4 . .0 124... . .. . .0 115.1 78.0 80. . . .. .0 .9 ..9 48.4 4..0 114.. .. .. 32...3 7..8 65..2 45.0 83... . . .9 8..9 47.2 23..0 105... 89.. .7 h 93. ..0 120. .. ... . .. ....2 46.8 47. ...7 2. 15.8 46.0 ..0 88.. . 89. .0 55.9 35.8 h 64.2 33.0 87. . .... . . Federated States of 118 Guyana 119 Botswana 120 Honduras 121 Indonesia 121 Kiribati 121 South Africa 124 Vanuatu 125 Kyrgyzstan 125 Tajikistan 127 Viet Nam 128 Namibia 129 Nicaragua 130 Morocco 131 Iraq 132 Cape Verde 133 Guatemala 134 Timor-Leste 135 Ghana 136 Equatorial Guinea 136 India 138 Cambodia 138 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 140 Bhutan 141 Swaziland Low human development 142 Congo 143 Solomon Islands 144 Sao Tome and Principe 145 Kenya 146 Bangladesh 146 Pakistan 148 Angola 149 Myanmar 150 Cameroon 151 Madagascar 152 Tanzania...2 11. . ..4 1. .0 59.. 36.9 h 74.0 e 65. ...1 34.5 f 19. .2 7.9 57.5 3.8 19.0 60..5 5. . 100. ...2 h 87...0 44. 80. ... 81. . .6 9. ..0 66...2 1.4 38...3 .3 35.7 82... ... . . .3 . .0 95.4 29. .7 83..0 116.4 5.9 100.. . . 81 . 77.1 86. 100.. . 14.6 80. .. . . 81..2 172 | Human Development Report 2013 .9 5...9 98. . .0 87....0 9. 44.. . .. 17.8 3. .0 36... 70 ..7 52. .8 . . ..0 103. 41. .0 56.9 10.2 e . .7 63... . . ..7 f 34.... .1 10.0 f 32.0 109.7 38.. ..7 8. . . .7 f 26. .. .8 .8 h 54...6 60......2 33. .. .7 .0 46. .0 60. . .0 21.. . .. . .. .. .2 h 84. 66.. .0 39.4 17. . .2 24. . ..9 29. . .9 48.0 39. .7 63. .3 14.2 .. . .. .2 25.4 f 7... 99 . .9 0..1 f ..5 4...8 92. 4.. .4 94.4 84.0 140. . . 34.7 . ... ..0 27. .. . 47.. ... .6 .0 f 18. . . . 59.4 36..0 87.0 56...8 13.. . .2 45. .8 58. .8 68.0 .7 40.0 118.0 135...3 67. .0 31.. ...0 100..0 107. .. . 32.... . 66 ...7 73.. .3 h 70.. .0 102.0 77. 79. 71...4 .1 40.. .4 . ... . ....4 8.0 54.8 h 78. . 50. 314 .5 .. . . ....6 99.9 100......4 92.. . 53. .4 35. 331 .. . .. 73.2 71.. 74.. . .1 .. .. .. .0 13. . . .. 84.....6 h 57. . 7.. . ..2 2. ..0 59. 42. 402 ... ... .0 60...0 69. .4 37.1 . .8 .8 94. .6 45.4 76. . 121.0 126..0 .9 7.1 f 89.. ..0 .... ..2 .2 h 61.. . .0 16. ... . ...6 e 38.. .0 .0 106.6 81....3 f 106. . . . .. 5. ..4 h 83.9 91. .3 9. 99..8 f 16. .0 73. ..1 45..0 ... . .4 h . . ... .5 2.. 383 ....1 h 92.. .5 100..5 33.0 72..6 h 60..0 31..8 .6 91. .5 66.2 99... ...0 121..2 33.0 42. . 70. 69. .......0 37.3 95.. 85. .5 33. .0 117. ..2 16. 371 .9 h 62.8 17... .0 27....9 70..3 h 75. . .1 e .4 h .. .3 .1 f 46..5 f 14. .0 118.8 38. . . .4 99.. ...0 94.0 70.... . ..9 17.3 h 93.7 f 29.. ... . . 60..0 h 60.8 20.1 7.. . .0 . . . . . . . 55.9 . .7 11.1 25.0 56.. . .5 f 37... 7. . 38..6 f 75.0 10. .. .1 f 23. . .. ..4 48. . .3 f 20..2 .1 29.0 118..0 .0 46..2 h 74.0 5. .7 58..8 41. .0 32.0 58.4 100... . . . . .. . 88. 40.4 ... .. ..3 h 89...8 44. . 4.9 35..0 134.0 ..0 113. .5 f 28. .... 28. .4 f .0 58.6 . ...0 116.2 f 10. ..8 77.. 95..0 115......0 83. . .0 86.6 72.6 20...0 107. ... .. .0 83.0 77.8 38. . ..5 68.. . . . . ..0 . 91 .. . 99. . ...9 4. 46..7 48. . .0 102.0 45.. 90. .4 h 71. .9 ..1 90. . ..7 64. .5 84.. . . . .. 62. .2 85..8 87.2 .. . 57. 16.. . ..3 f 33. .0 45.0 .6 f 28.4 18...1 23.2 f .8 23.9 f . . ... . .8 f .0 46..0 113. .0 ..0 28.4 51.0 102.4 .7 f 22. ..... . 14... .0 f . .0 149. . . .... .0 110. .... . ..2 . . . .6 74. . .0 43.1 97.0 116.. .. .0 37. . . . .

4 37. .8 74.2 5.4 .. Column 13: Gallup (2012). Table 8  Education | 173 ..5 36. .0 32. 64.. .. expressed as a percentage of the official school-age population for the same level of education. .. .2 110. .2 56. ..7 96..... . Democratic Republic of the 186 Niger Other countries or territories Korea. . .2 h 39. . .8 50..1 78.. . 10... .. . .2 ..0 32.3 75. . Democratic People’s Rep.0 96..0 60. 39. ... . . .2 h 41.0 97... 85..3 60.. 18. .1 h 66... 63. .8 97. .. . 57. . . . .0 . .. MAIN DATA SOURCES Columns 1. 46.5 93..8 .8 7. 27. .0 26.. .2 h 42. .. 74.. . .0 38..4 ..3 f .0 . .7 82.7 6... .2 28. .. .. 36.6 f 23.2 39..2 9. . — — — — — — — — — — — — — .3 h 15.9 f ...5 113. which is based on national data since 2000. ...0 94.. 17.5 50. — — — — — — — — — — — — — . ..8 i .7 .9 57.8 3.0 24.3 36.2 ..7 73... j Refers to Dubai only... 16. f Barro and Lee (2011) estimates for 2010. 93..6 58. . .0 i UIS estimate derived from its Global Age-specific Literacy Projections Model.5 55.. mathematics and science: Score obtained in testing of skills and knowledge of 15-year-old students in these subjects essential for participation in society.. . . 52...3 53.2 1. . 100.0 104..... . . ...1 31..6 45.. ..8 91.0 60.1 f ... . ..2 f 5... .0 115..0 156.7 64. k Refers to Shanghai only.0 40. .. ..1 92... 16..0 66.....2 73. .5 h 56. .0 39.. ... ..0 93. ...3 .1 6. .1 f . 83. .... .3 58..2 97..5 54.0 13.2 . .. . . ..8 34. 38.0 94. . .7 .3 101...4 71. 73..0 125. — — — — — — — — — — — — — ... 54. 92...0 .0 23.. . which is based on national data from before 2000... 102.. ... . .. .4 98.. 34.9 48.... . .1 63.0 85.8 h 31..2 .2 50. .5 6. Deviation from mean: Spread of scores in reading....3 52. — — — — — — — — — — — — — 43. . 3.2 90. ... 99.7 45..... — — — — — — — — — — — — — . .2 29.. . secondary or tertiary)...9 89.... .... g Refers to 2011.3 55.3 2.0 60.9 71.8 98. .. .. ..3 2. .0 . . .4 39.0 71. mathematics and science relative to the average scores. DEFINITIONS Adult literacy rate: Percentage of the population ages 15 and older who can.8 24.0 h 67.0 123.9 91. .0 82. .9 64..7 111.2 1.0 .0 . 93.. 71. Performance in reading.0 38.7 22. 102..0 58.0 79. . . 25... .. . ... — — — — — — — — — — — — — .6 100. . . ...7 100. . ... ...... Columns 7–12: OECD (2010).. .... Scientific and Cultural Organization Institute for Statistics (UIS) estimate derived from its Global Age-specific Literacy Projections Model.2 65. . ..6 45..8 h 28. .8 7. . . ....1 91..0 .8 41..0 ... 2–6 and 14: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2012)... . .8 40. . with understanding.4 76.7 ..6 53.8 63. ..0 94.0 . 35.7 9.7 . . Gross enrolment ratio: Total enrolment in a given level of education (primary.0 h 56. .5 .0 97.. .... 61. . .7 34.7 .1 . 100.2 6. 43.9 .. ... 49.. .8 48.0 .. b Average score in mathematics for OECD countries is 495... .3 62.. 81..2 14.9 .Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT GROSS ENROLMENT RATIO Primary school teachers trained to teach EDUCATION QUALITY Performance of 15-year-old students Satisfaction with education quality Primary school dropout rate (% of primary school cohort) 2002–2011d Population with at least Adult literacy secondary education Primary Secondary Tertiary rate (% ages 15 and older) HDI rank 2005–2010d Mean score Deviation from mean (% ages 25 and older) 2010 d (%) d d (%) d Readinga 2009 Mathematicsb 2009 Sciencec 2009 Reading 2009 Mathematics 2009 Science 2009 (% satisfied) 2011 2002–2011 2002–2011 2002–2011 2005–2011 f 171 Sudan 172 Zimbabwe 173 Ethiopia 174 Liberia 175 Afghanistan 176 Guinea-Bissau 177 Sierra Leone 178 Burundi 178 Guinea 180 Central African Republic 181 Eritrea 182 Mali 183 Burkina Faso 184 Chad 185 Mozambique 186 Congo... .1 28.8 . .. .. . .5 25. . of Marshall Islands Monaco Nauru San Marino Somalia South Sudan Tuvalu Human Development Index groups Very high human development High human development Medium human development Low human development Regions Arab States East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Least developed countries Small island developing states World NOTES a Average score in reading for Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries is 493.0 69. . .0 70. ......0 99.9 39...0 77.. . 539 .0 13. . ..5 .. 4..7 2..0 . . .6 40. 92. .... . .1 67..3 18. . .. .0 45.. .6 2..5 2.. . .5 42.7 59. .0 90. ... .9 39...2 .. . .. ... ..0 . . e Average of two or more surveys during the period.4 f . . . It is calculated as 100 minus the survival rate to the last grade of primary education and assumes that observed flow rates remain unchanged throughout the cohort life and that dropouts do not re-enter school.. .1 3. .. . both read and write a short simple statement on their everyday life.1 6.9 113.3 70. .. d Data refer to the most recent year available during the period specified. Satisfaction with education quality: Percentage of respondents who answered “satisfied” to the Gallup World Poll question.4 .2 30. 3.9 115. .5 19.. . . c Average score in science for OECD countries is 501. h United Nations Educational. .2 38. .0 71... .5 ... . .1 26.7 37.0 36..4 40. . .1 57. .1 3. .4 91.4 ... .. . . . 51.. regardless of age.0 . 14. .0 5.3 f 20. .. . “Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the education system?” Primary school dropout rate: Percentage of students from a given cohort that have enrolled in primary school but that drop out before reaching the last grade of primary education. ..2 6.3 77.0 107.3 2. School teachers trained to teach: Percentage of primary school teachers that have received the minimum organized teacher training (pre-service or in-service) required for teaching at the primary level. . ....0 8.0 91.4 .2 9... .5 50.. . .. .. .. .. Population with at least secondary education: Percentage of the population ages 25 and older that reached at least secondary education..0 25.5 15. . 75. . 73.3 21.

46.0 35.0 26. 11.0 58..2 71.0 60.7 1..2 94.7 7.4 ..2 12.2 54.0 0.6 40. .3 . 7.7 84..1 62.0 16.0 9.1 72.2 90.4 .0 52..6 7. .6 0.2 66. .0 79.0 61.5 7. .9 4.0 24.0 90.7 1.. 88.9 27.7 .1 10. 64.2 5. .0 88.1 7.0 .7 86.8 61.5 0.9 5.0 29. 58.7 0.0 20.0 73.0 57.0 60.0 38..0 .0 70.5 7. .0 . 77.0 42.9 6.6 22.. 6..5 0.8 9.3 12. 5.0 15. . 42.0 16....5 84.9 54.0 89.0 .9 88.9 Table Social integration EMPLOYMENT.8 10.0 86.9 6. 34.3 5...8 15.0 18.5 7.7 0.0 .1 0.2 5.4 .0 52.3 1.2 55.....0 .2 61.5 6.6 8.3 .5 10...0 6.4 93.0 95.. .8 17.0 55.0 13.1 62.3 26.0 4.0 79.0 48..2 5.5 62.2 78. .0 80.8 0. 7.1 14.0 33.0 18.2 1...1 5.0 .5 93.7 62..3 66.0 85.0 78. 2.0 .2 35. 1.0 77.8 31. .0 44.0 2.5 0.0 16. ... .0 90..1 93. 55.4 84. .9 23.0 .2 6. 76.7 29.2 3..0 .0 55.7 88.2 . 25..1 1.0 18.0 53.0 49. 4.0 46.9 53.3 7.8 62.8 22.4 .8 ..8 3.1 ..2 .....0 25.0 .3 86.6 6..7 80.1 69.5 10.0 27.0 18. least satisfied.0 89. 40.6 .4 8.7 . .0 93.0 57.5 3.4 22.4 6. 60.9 174 | Human Development Report 2013 .0 41.0 39. 6.0 78..2 7.4 1.0 6.. .0 77.9 21... . 84.5 ... 88..7 64.1 10.0 58.1 51.1 6.0 .4 65.8 33.8 2. 94.7 1.9 ... 32.0 68. 16.3 16.9 58.0 31.0 95..0 94. 70.3 1.7 49.4 6. 28....0 ..0 53.8 18.3 3.8 94.0 52.0 79.0 47..6 87.8 89. 5.0 . 87.6 92.0 .0 54.5 93.0 63.5 5.2 . 11.9 54.3 11.5 17.0 87.8 91.8 7.9 67.. 11. . 10.3 .. ..2 7.0 6.8 68.6 11...3 0.8 6.6 69.5 59.9 2.0 6..2 3... .0 89.6 5.5 6.6 21..0 .4 6. 5.2 8. 1.0 . .0 .4 .0 78. .5 .0 67.8 1..0 21. 7..0 21.0 78.7 7.0 59.3 23. 30. .1 11...9 3.4 87. 76.6 8.2 1.0 .8 .7 11.7 8.6 90.0 0. 5.2 49.5 ...0 5.2 .4 6.0 90. 7.0 54...1 .0 29.0 91.4 0...5 59...0 .5 ..5 1.0 28. 81.0 .0 92.6 0.7 9.9 .8 90. 6.0 11.2 1.9 24.5 1.0 73.7 40.9 6.0 . VULNERABILITY AND EQUITY PERCEPTIONS OF INDIVIDUAL WELL-BEING PERCEPTIONS OF SOCIETY HUMAN SAFETY Overall loss in Human Satisfaction Development with Employment to population Youth Child Index due to Overall life freedom Satisfaction inequality satisfaction of choice ratio unemployment labour with job (0..6 ...0 85.. 21.9 55.0 4.3 .5 .0 .1 19.0 4..5 84. .. 11. 56... 21. . 10.4 7.7 13.1 74. .. .3 11.4 5...9 .. .9 55.4 15.0 5.4 74.3 79. 81.5 65.2 1.7 .4 13.6 4.0 87.0 64. 7..0 55.1 3.8 6.0 64.0 6.8 9.0 23.0 7.0 6..0 16.5 8. . 11.6 4...0 26.0 18..6 0.6 80. .0 28.0 77.3 1. 52.4 7. 40...3 16.8 11..2 .0 93. 33.1 84. 59. 6.0 54.3 . 9.2 3..0 10.2 .0 .0 34.9 19.1 17. 27.4 7. 1.3 5.6 66. 20.9 7.5 0. 15.6 4.7 94.0 63.5 6.9 83.1 78.0 .0 80.7 16. 75.0 27. 23. .0 66.2 93. 7..5 57.7 78..0 50..7 78.000 a community government of safety people) rate (% answering “yes”) (per 100.0 90. 47.3 94.5 ..0 76.6 83.4 58.1 84.6 91.6 88. 9.9 12.1 34.9 7.0 .1 3.0 8.5 87.6 86. 79.4 1...4 61.9 1.4 94.9 18..4 7.5 4.0 82. 80..0 93. .0 46.1 7.3 . .0 94.8 59. 15..9 19.5 17..2 91.4 57. 23.0 7. . . 87. most satisfied) Trust in people Satisfaction Trust in Suicide rate with national Perception Homicide (per 100.0 93..0 30.0 .0 15.1 . 60.0 .0 20.0 64.4 ..0 13.0 7.3 8.0 12. 66.3 5..2 71.6 1. ...0 84. .7 24.0 64.6 5.4 57.1 18.0 92. .7 6.0 . 69.0 82.0 23.9 8.. .0 .0 .0 48.8 48.0 1..0 59.0 33..9 . .0 84.4 87.9 15.0 70.0 58.7 23..9 18..5 3.0 8.5 69.0 23..7 0.0 79...9 59.0 88.0 50. .1 2.0 . .0 64.000 people) 2004– 2011b (% ages 25 and older) HDI rank 2011 (% ages 15–24) 2005–2011b (% ages 5–14) 2001– 2010b (%) 2012 (% satisfied) 2011 (% answering “yes”) Female Male 2001– 2001– 2010b 2010b 2007–2011b 2007–2011b 2007–2011b 2007–2011b 2007–2011b 2007–2011b Very high human development 1 Norway 2 Australia 3 United States 4 Netherlands 5 Germany 6 New Zealand 7 Ireland 7 Sweden 9 Switzerland 10 Japan 11 Canada 12 Korea.2 48....5 89.2 6..7 29. China (SAR) 13 Iceland 15 Denmark 16 Israel 17 Belgium 18 Austria 18 Singapore 20 France 21 Finland 21 Slovenia 23 Spain 24 Liechtenstein 25 Italy 26 Luxembourg 26 United Kingdom 28 Czech Republic 29 Greece 30 Brunei Darussalam 31 Cyprus 32 Malta 33 Andorra 33 Estonia 35 Slovakia 36 Qatar 37 Hungary 38 Barbados 39 Poland 40 Chile 41 Lithuania 41 United Arab Emirates 43 Portugal 44 Latvia 45 Argentina 46 Seychelles 47 Croatia High human development 48 Bahrain 49 Bahamas 50 Belarus 51 Uruguay 52 Montenegro 52 Palau 54 Kuwait 55 Russian Federation 65. 49.0 18.0 89.9 62.0 61. 65... 5. 48.5 89.1 7.0 58..9 1.6 83.0 29.0 88.8 57.0 78.9 28.. .4 54. . 3.3 .5 71.0 22..0 .3 39.2 88..0 26.7 8. .0 43.1 4.2 0. 21.0 . 73..0 7..0 .7 6..6 8. 81.2 6. .9 19.. 26.4 1..0 . 59.5 88.0 68.0 73..9 5.0 89.8 36.5 .3 91. 75. ..8 12..0 93.0 0.0 78..9 12.7 26.2 6.4 6.4 11.5 6.0 .0 83.2 19.0 59.2 61.9 48.0 90. .5 .9 2.2 17.8 10..6 6..4 82.4 .1 91.4 18. 6.9 70.0 75. 57... .0 49.. .0 69.0 11.0 ..4 4.0 24.0 79.4 92..8 ..9 .0 . .1 7. 3.. .8 0. .2 .7 .0 1.4 .. 5.5 .8 60. 8.. . .1 86.0 31. 75.6 0.2 0.6 27.4 3.0 ..7 85.0 38. 10.0 86.8 7.2 78.0 18.0 28.2 10. 30.0 . .0 45.8 93.0 .9 7.1 86.0 .0 21. 40. 36.0 89..2 .5 5. .9 89.0 78.0 .0 . .9 . 37...2 10.0 81.6 22.0 90.0 .. Republic of 13 Hong Kong.9 49.0 53.4 91.6 2..9 6. 86. 10.7 7.3 .0 48.1 81.8 23.0 24.0 86.0 11.0 36. 9.0 ..0 77. 8.

.5 73..9 84.1 10. ..8 15. . .0 85.0 52.0 81.2 22.2 70.0 74.7 .3 81. 65. 46. .. Islamic Republic of 77 Peru 78 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 78 Ukraine 80 Mauritius 81 Bosnia and Herzegovina 82 Azerbaijan 83 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 84 Oman 85 Brazil 85 Jamaica 87 Armenia 88 Saint Lucia 89 Ecuador 90 Turkey 91 Colombia 92 Sri Lanka 93 Algeria 94 Tunisia Medium human development 95 Tonga 96 Belize 96 Dominican Republic 96 Fiji 96 Samoa 100 Jordan 101 China 102 Turkmenistan 103 Thailand 104 Maldives 105 Suriname 106 Gabon 107 El Salvador 108 Bolivia.9 .0 . 46.0 15..2 2...4 25.3 81. 88.0 .2 5. ...0 .9 69. 51. 34..0 72. 81.6 .0 56.0 56..4 . .6 9.8 81.0 65. . 68.5 84.0 38.7 5..0 53.7 . 9.0 67..6 96. 41.2 ..0 .. 7.7 .3 74...0 . . ..3 .8 1.0 8.0 74. 66.0 75.7 18.0 ..5 .7 23.5 14. 78. 3. 49..2 13...4 21.5 1.3 1.0 77.0 49.0 52. 3.0 72.0 59. .8 6..0 82.4 58.1 Table 9  Social integration | 175 .0 21. 79.8 4.3 7.5 77.8 4. .. 80.6 .3 1.0 53. 7.3 14.3 62. 23. 54.8 .5 .0 .7 73. 10. .9 . . 29.0 . 2.0 45.. . 12.7 82.4 84. ..0 21.7 37.0 .0 2.8 3.0 . 12.3 83. 12.6 66..8 5..2 52.2 18.. .4 3..6 62.7 59.0 67. 10..5 . 1.... . 24.9 78.0 30.0 7.5 61.. 7. 85.4 .0 16.4 90..1 .0 77.0 42. 81.0 ....7 58. 4...3 ..0 59.6 71.5 95. 53..0 6.0 .6 4.0 .0 83.000 a community government of safety people) rate (% answering “yes”) (per 100.0 27....0 74. .4 62...0 92.8 35. 72.0 .5 .0 .8 5....0 80. .0 46..5 .2 .9 6..2 23. 43.7 67.0 5..4 23.0 .2 38..8 . 6.8 .0 14..0 28. .3 45.6 13. . .8 .. .0 26..2 81. 8.0 69. 18.8 0.0 .0 51...0 37.9 6. .. . 56. 25.0 4..3 11. 12.9 77. 8.5 26.9 5.. 39... ..0 .3 58.4 4. .2 . ....9 5. 79. 55..3 60.7 . ..7 11.1 77.3 . 40.0 7. 3. 91..7 4..0 4. 0.0 12.3 2.. . most satisfied) Trust in people Satisfaction Trust in Suicide rate with national Perception Homicide (per 100..0 14. 4.0 .6 76.Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World EMPLOYMENT.. .. . 21.0 68.0 69.0 2.9 82.7 21.1 .. . 33.. 66.7 ... 55.6 10.. 28.0 55.. 77.0 38...1 .0 9. 15.1 . 28.0 60. 9.0 49.0 10.0 48.0 38.. 47. . ..8 27. ..6 22..0 .9 5..9 24.8 85.0 47. 92..0 60.8 7.1 0.6 45. ..2 4...7 87. 0.5 2..5 5. 2. . .6 .0 3.0 18.0 5.1 37. .1 ..4 . 53. 59.0 ..0 49.0 ..1 1..0 . 44.0 .0 4.1 4.6 23.. 0..0 46.6 34.0 10.6 ...2 65.0 . 7.2 55.4 . 6.8 5... 41..0 9.. . .4 43.3 79. .. . 5. .0 .3 11. 67..7 77.4 .0 0.4 .8 60.8 22.6 3... ..7 56.0 .5 3.0 79.0 .9 1. 24.5 . 87..7 .0 80.7 9...0 .6 75.5 37.0 76.9 .6 15.0 .9 54..3 66.. 6. 16.0 ..5 31.. 53. 75..0 78..0 43.8 . 3.5 6. 59. .0 41.9 47.0 49. .8 ..9 16. .6 .7 28.6 22.2 43. 4..0 .0 74.0 8. 21..0 60. 71.0 46... 85. 6..6 1.0 .0 . 18.8 .0 78. 49.0 .4 68.2 73. 5. 19...3 1. 15.5 1.9 26..0 .9 8...2 5.3 46.0 5.0 5.0 . 0. 7.0 7.0 .0 .8 5.7 79.8 4.0 19.0 47.8 68.0 . 76.0 44.7 29.0 ..000 people) 2004– 2011b (% ages 25 and older) HDI rank 2011 (% ages 15–24) 2005–2011b (% ages 5–14) 2001– 2010b (%) 2012 (% satisfied) 2011 (% answering “yes”) Female Male 2001– 2001– 2010b 2010b 2007–2011b 2007–2011b 2007–2011b 2007–2011b 2007–2011b 2007–2011b 56 Romania 57 Bulgaria 57 Saudi Arabia 59 Cuba 59 Panama 61 Mexico 62 Costa Rica 63 Grenada 64 Libya 64 Malaysia 64 Serbia 67 Antigua and Barbuda 67 Trinidad and Tobago 69 Kazakhstan 70 Albania 71 Venezuela.8 . 5.0 83...1 70.0 1.5 85. ... 6. 76. 62.2 19.0 64.0 .8 1. .0 5.0 ...0 80.7 58.0 7. 42. 14.3 . 1.. 89.9 . 78..5 48.0 .0 1.9 74.... .. 15.2 1. .9 64. .. .. 54.0 6.4 67.0 70. 86.5 27.0 48.0 11.3 63.. 2..0 3..6 .0 17.. . 18. ..0 .4 87.9 89.0 41.7 . . 27.8 1. Bolivarian Republic of 72 Dominica 72 Georgia 72 Lebanon 72 Saint Kitts and Nevis 76 Iran. .8 9.9 .7 73. .0 .1 1.4 .8 .4 . 24..9 43. 11..0 51.8 80....0 22. .2 8.0 .. 33.0 17. Plurinational State of 108 Mongolia 110 Palestine. 9..2 64.0 20.1 74.0 .4 25..0 . 17.7 4.8 69....0 . ... 91.0 .. 26. ... VULNERABILITY AND EQUITY PERCEPTIONS OF INDIVIDUAL WELL-BEING PERCEPTIONS OF SOCIETY HUMAN SAFETY Overall loss in Human Satisfaction Development with Employment to population Youth Child Index due to Overall life freedom Satisfaction inequality satisfaction of choice ratio unemployment labour with job (0. 34..0 19.0 . 18.0 .5 .. 1.0 55..3 85.2 3.9 .3 75.1 .5 1.0 31.0 14. 5. .9 .0 29.1 97.7 ..1 5..2 6....2 0.7 5. 46...0 57..0 29.0 27..9 . 57. 15.0 7.0 29.0 44.8 1..0 10.0 27..0 53. 74.2 15. 1..7 68. 5..0 58..3 .3 22. 1.0 38.6 4.3 68. 27..6 13. State of 111 Paraguay 57.6 73. 5. 57...0 .6 .. 91.. 35. 4.5 72.0 ...5 2.0 36. . 75.0 67.....3 6.0 18.7 71.. .0 . 19.0 2.8 37. 62.6 17. 4.3 6.1 .0 7.0 . 1.0 86.0 13.3 33..9 2..9 41.0 .0 .0 15. least satisfied.0 9. 77.0 .5 4.0 77. 13.0 32. 86.7 5..0 45..1 22.3 .1 4. 5.5 68.8 . 66. .0 27.0 63. 65.0 .9 .3 60.5 11.0 81.7 ..5 74.7 .0 71.2 .6 77.. .0 4..0 42.5 1.0 3. .1 79..0 7.7 68.9 82.5 12..3 52.2 .0 2.8 44.9 0.. 15.9 65.6 .2 8.7 .0 .0 33.3 22.. 40.9 ..8 47.0 4..3 13.0 12..8 71...9 10.7 0.0 . 15.0 57. 58.9 93. .2 3. 2.5 4.0 67. 3.0 55.. .3 .3 25.2 4.. 74. 89.. 6.1 20.0 12. 61....0 47.0 10...2 .9 0..4 .0 .0 .0 .0 41.0 .5 .0 . . .9 ..8 11.4 3.1 ..9 9.. 64.0 56.3 1. .0 . .6 .7 5.0 . .9 66..3 ...0 .0 . 5..2 5.0 ..0 ...1 11.2 ..0 .9 46. .4 21.

70.5 .0 21... .0 12.0 ..6 4. . 58..1 30.. .0 85.1 76.8 ... 14.8 33.4 23. most satisfied) Trust in people Satisfaction Trust in Suicide rate with national Perception Homicide (per 100.0 75.8 80.7 13.8 73. ...1 2.8 .5 .4 72.0 77.0 .0 16... .0 26. 55.3 86. 0. 76...9 .0 68.0 61.0 ..0 .3 ..4 67.0 12.0 .0 21. .0 68.0 98..3 .2 77..0 ... 70.. ....2 13. .0 3.0 . 61. 51.6 .. 46.5 18..0 53.1 .4 80.0 10. Republic of 114 Philippines 114 Uzbekistan 116 Syrian Arab Republic 117 Micronesia.3 .5 . 4.0 .0 22.6 75.0 37.4 5.0 . .9 0..0 . . 9.0 .0 10..0 30.0 23. .6 4..0 1. .. 34..0 79...5 61.6 63.0 .0 55...8 56.7 14. 5.0 ...0 90.0 72. .9 ...0 31. . 2.0 54.0 40.5 .0 . .8 4....9 18.8 . ..6 5.0 13.4 57..1 1.0 . 74.0 77.1 4.8 3..8 44..4 66.2 57..2 65.0 47.0 29. 63.3 70..0 .3 91.5 32. 71. 24.. ....4 59. 79.0 37.0 54......1 50.3 41..0 74.8 54. 33.. . .0 78.0 73.7 5. 34..7 7.4 ..1 33.4 2....0 5.0 . .2 5. 7. . 56... .. .1 . 84. .0 .2 ..0 82.3 72. 65. 16.8 15. .0 32.0 52.3 .0 65. 0.5 . 55..0 13.3 ....0 69.8 3.3 44. 34. .1 . .7 27.0 21.8 4..0 29.0 42...2 61. .0 65.0 .9 68.5 27.4 .8 89. .1 .0 64..2 . 79.5 91.. .4 4..0 54.0 46.1 7.0 25..3 ...0 61. .6 85. 11. 39.8 92.. 9.. 27.0 16..7 .0 . .7 33.... 41.. .6 49.9 5.0 .0 ..8 20. .9 57..0 67..0 .0 21..0 .9 66.. 31.1 81..1 80.5 82.3 .3 38...0 64. 52.0 55..2 7.0 13.0 41.5 12. .0 4.6 1..4 74. 41. .2 .4 66.0 34.2 23. . .4 31.. 22.. .0 63. .0 92.0 .9 20.0 13. .9 43.8 67..0 43..1 47. .0 89.. .7 69. .. 62.1 2.3 90.0 47. 56. 49.. .0 2.9 70.7 .9 20..1 5.7 20. 4.000 a community government of safety people) rate (% answering “yes”) (per 100.0 .. 47.7 62.6 90.4 10..0 .3 0.4 70.0 15.0 . 7.. .9 30.4 .0 . 4. ..1 .9 74...0 31.0 3. 4.0 77..0 14...7 ..1 2. 3. 1.1 56. 176 | Human Development Report 2013 .0 74.8 19.0 . .. 81....6 10.. . 40.7 66. .4 30.0 11.4 ...4 3.2 82. . 4. ..2 33... .0 28.0 . 15.0 4.8 3.9 36.0 8.0 30.7 3.9 4. .0 .0 4. ..0 16.0 47.3 43. 4. VULNERABILITY AND EQUITY PERCEPTIONS OF INDIVIDUAL WELL-BEING PERCEPTIONS OF SOCIETY HUMAN SAFETY Overall loss in Human Satisfaction Development with Employment to population Youth Child Index due to Overall life freedom Satisfaction inequality satisfaction of choice ratio unemployment labour with job (0. . .0 7.0 35. .... 71.. 15. 27.0 88.4 33.1 4.0 50.table 9  Social integration EMPLOYMENT.0 .3 .3 40.8 19. .0 .8 .000 people) 2004– 2011b (% ages 25 and older) HDI rank 2011 (% ages 15–24) 2005–2011b (% ages 5–14) 2001– 2010b (%) 2012 (% satisfied) 2011 (% answering “yes”) Female Male 2001– 2001– 2010b 2010b 2007–2011b 2007–2011b 2007–2011b 2007–2011b 2007–2011b 2007–2011b 112 Egypt 113 Moldova.2 94.1 24.. 62.9 .0 ..8 45. .7 62...4 54.0 69.6 17.7 4.0 ..0 86.4 73.4 4.6 ...0 67.6 87.7 20. . 62. 63. . .1 87.1 15.1 2.3 50..1 .0 74.6 .3 40.6 2.0 . 44. 2. United Republic of 153 Nigeria 154 Senegal 155 Mauritania 156 Papua New Guinea 157 Nepal 158 Lesotho 159 Togo 160 Yemen 161 Haiti 161 Uganda 163 Zambia 164 Djibouti 165 Gambia 166 Benin 167 Rwanda 168 Côte d’Ivoire 51..0 28. ... 17. . 7..0 .1 .7 . 20. .2 .9 .9 78.1 56. 3. Federated States of 118 Guyana 119 Botswana 120 Honduras 121 Indonesia 121 Kiribati 121 South Africa 124 Vanuatu 125 Kyrgyzstan 125 Tajikistan 127 Viet Nam 128 Namibia 129 Nicaragua 130 Morocco 131 Iraq 132 Cape Verde 133 Guatemala 134 Timor-Leste 135 Ghana 136 Equatorial Guinea 136 India 138 Cambodia 138 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 140 Bhutan 141 Swaziland Low human development 142 Congo 143 Solomon Islands 144 Sao Tome and Principe 145 Kenya 146 Bangladesh 146 Pakistan 148 Angola 149 Myanmar 150 Cameroon 151 Madagascar 152 Tanzania. 45..0 . .0 46.6 92...0 25. .0 . 66..0 61.0 80.. 87.. . 63.8 0.0 69.1 80. .0 31.0 18. . .0 15. 71. .0 54.. . 46. .0 62. 26. ..6 . 33.0 35.0 5.2 .8 . 61.0 70..8 35.7 8.0 76..6 14.9 42. 13.1 17.4 . 58..0 . .7 3. . 2...0 3.9 15..0 9.. .. 20.0 .0 .1 . 82.0 .5 86. 16... .0 33.4 3. 68.6 36.0 70. 11.0 .0 28...2 35.7 18.8 65.0 61.8 . .0 67.0 58.5 84. .0 51. 38.0 26. . . 17.0 30...3 83.0 16. 10. .. 3.0 11. 86. .. 78.8 .9 38.1 5.5 5..0 .2 6.0 11.0 73...0 .7 36.2 ..8 9.2 5. 6.7 71.1 18..0 56..8 83... . 8..0 84.0 .. 19.1 11. .0 .0 17...0 58.3 67. .0 55. 85.3 .. . 43..8 5.0 58.0 20.0 95. 76..0 .9 15. 66. . .0 42.9 . 13.0 35.7 58. 36. 75. 0.0 5.0 .0 65....0 87.0 .0 60..0 28. 1. 56. . 33.0 .4 64.0 74.6 42.4 4. ....0 8. 5. .0 24.0 42.6 19.3 70.2 38.0 25..0 .3 25. 48.5 6.7 .0 .0 86.7 85.3 57.4 50..6 .0 26. 50.0 . .9 33.4 .7 52. 50. ..8 5..3 55. ......9 76. .5 3.0 92.9 74.7 51.. . ..0 76..7 1... least satisfied.4 . 75. ..8 81..0 23.9 5..9 .1 . ..7 76.0 ...0 39.6 86. .1 . 85.8 74...0 53. 30. 19. 69.6 93.6 .0 58. 80.1 62. 10.1 ..3 46. 13.8 62..0 9..0 . 68. 13. 0....3 4.0 82.0 .... .. .0 . .8 10..2 55.0 90..3 81. 5.2 ..0 . .7 84.. 10.. 82..9 79.0 ..0 ..4 14. 29.0 . 84. 17. 31.5 29.4 69..0 ....4 30.0 46.0 82. .0 45.0 62. .0 39. 74. 4.4 75..8 .2 19..9 69.0 56.0 67.2 8.0 76..0 34.6 27. ..6 1...0 . . 11.2 10. . .3 5.0 .0 34. .4 .. 7. 78.0 9....0 ..0 30.. .0 55. .0 .0 9.2 . . 35.9 4.0 . 46.6 38..0 80.0 72.0 43.0 86.... 6.0 ... 62.0 59.9 24.0 88.6 . 2.3 43..0 41.. 58.0 12.. .6 8.3 31...9 41.. . 4. 50..0 .0 24.7 78.4 52.3 55...

0 39.. 19..5 25.0 78. .0 82. 76. .0 56...3 77.. .0 65..0 18.8 61..6 12..0 3. .1 3.5 10.0 21..9 . .000 a community government of safety people) rate (% answering “yes”) (per 100.0 ... . .8 50. . .6 6..5 30. MAIN DATA SOURCES Columns 1 and 2: ILO (2012).1 35.3 . 10.0 21.2 74. .. 63.7 29.5 22.5 79.8 66..8 40.9 48... 73. . 30.6 .4 71. Column 4: Calculated based on HDI and Inequalityadjusted HDI values from tables 1 and 3. .6 .9 . ..2 72.4 89. least satisfied.. .0 25. .3 25.0 47.0 82.1 56.9 34. .0 83..8 ..7 5.0 31. “Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with your job?” Trust in people: Percentage of respondents answering “yes” to the Gallup World Poll question. 61. .0 29.0 39.9 49.0 55.5 58..9 78..5 .0 75.6 73...3 .. ... ..7 20..6 .9 .4 52.9 19.0 13. .. do you think that economic conditions in the city or area where you live.1 45.. ..0 72. 19. .. assuming that the higher the step the better you feel about your life.... . Democratic Republic of the 186 Niger Other countries or territories Korea..3 75.1 53. .0 38. during the reference week. ..9 ..0 59. .. .0 39..4 6.0 ..0 .0 .. 58.8 .0 90.3 6.1 13.. Suppose we say that the top of the ladder represents the best possible life for you.7 92. .0 19.4 4. “Generally speaking.. during the reference week. .4 65..5 42.9 4. 41. 31.5 31. . VULNERABILITY AND EQUITY PERCEPTIONS OF INDIVIDUAL WELL-BEING PERCEPTIONS OF SOCIETY HUMAN SAFETY Overall loss in Human Satisfaction Development with Employment to population Youth Child Index due to Overall life freedom Satisfaction inequality satisfaction of choice ratio unemployment labour with job (0. ..0 . ... .0 38.2 80.4 47. .8 .9 66. . divided by the total number of the reference population.8 8. 43...2 70.0 .9 65.3 73.8 .2 85.2 3. .3 64..9 4.9 .5 . .000 people) 2004– 2011b (% ages 25 and older) HDI rank 2011 (% ages 15–24) 2005–2011b (% ages 5–14) 2001– 2010b (%) 2012 (% satisfied) 2011 (% answering “yes”) Female Male 2001– 2001– 2010b 2010b 2007–2011b 2007–2011b 2007–2011b 2007–2011b 2007–2011b 2007–2011b 169 Comoros 170 Malawi 171 Sudan 172 Zimbabwe 173 Ethiopia 174 Liberia 175 Afghanistan 176 Guinea-Bissau 177 Sierra Leone 178 Burundi 178 Guinea 180 Central African Republic 181 Eritrea 182 Mali 183 Burkina Faso 184 Chad 185 Mozambique 186 Congo.3 17.. 72. .... 39... .. .0 32.1 53....5 4. are you satisfied or dissatisfied with your freedom to choose what you do with your life?” Satisfaction with job: Percentage of respondents answering “satisfied” to the Gallup World Poll question. . 54.0 ...4 8.. 4. Columns 5–11: Gallup (2012).. . . most satisfied) Trust in people Satisfaction Trust in Suicide rate with national Perception Homicide (per 100. 38..0 83.0 32.0 78..0 63.9 25.7 22.5 79..2 ..8 5...6 . . ...6 . .8 4.. 6. “Right now.4 63..6 . . ..1 64. 63. .... . . 2. 21... .. . . ..5 2...0 . . are getting better or getting worse?” Trust in national government: Percentage of respondents answering “yes” to the Gallup World Poll question.1 4.0 .0 88. .0 4...3 76. 80. 27.. 68.. did at least 14 hours of economic activity or at least 28 hours of household chores.. ..9 55. 29. .8 54..7 5. Column 3: UNICEF (2012).. . ..6 56.2 .0 4. 33...4 72.6 69..0 38.0 38. ..0 42..Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World EMPLOYMENT.4 41. .0 .0 . ..3 12. ... 38... . . 81. .. .1 60. . Overall life satisfaction: Average response to the Gallup World Poll Question: Please imagine a ladder. would you say that most people can be trusted or that you have to be careful in dealing with people?” Satisfaction with community: Percentage of respondents answering “yes” to the Gallup World Poll question.3 3.. 79..1 82.0 25.6 24.. 20.4 . expressed per 100.. .9 2.. . .. . . See Technical note 2 for details on how the Inequalityadjusted HDI is calculated.7 4.0 55.1 72. . did at least one hour of economic activity or at least 28 hours of household chores. . .0 43.8 78..... .1 2. . .5 4.8 21.2 3.5 22.4 21.2 52... . and the lower the step the worse you feel about it? Which step comes closest to the way you feel? Satisfaction with freedom of choice: Percentage of respondents answering “yes” to the Gallup World Poll question.. 6... Child labour: Percentage of children ages 5–11 who. . .0 .. ... .0 47.. DEFINITIONS Employment to population ratio: Percentage of the population ages 25 years or older that is employed..0 24. . b Data refer to the most recent year available during the period specified. .5 66.0 26. 29.6 .2 78..8 77.. ..0 30.. Youth unemployment: Percentage of the labour force population ages 15–24 that is not in paid employment or self-employed but is available for work and has taken steps to seek paid employment or self-employment.. 20.7 .0 82.0 85. ..8 .1 56.. . ...9 . ... ... ..0 66.4 .7 ... .0 62. 5. . .. 77. 62.4 79...0 31. .. Overall loss in Human Development Index (HDI) due to inequality: Loss in potential human development due to inequality.6 74. 36..0 15. 50. . ...0 .2 67...5 .4 4.. ..0 44... or children ages 12–14 who.5 29.5 .. 29.8 4.2 63. .5 77...8 20. . .4 20... 50...0 ..... .5 . . 24.0 40.. 34. ...2 ..0 12.000 people.0 63. .0 9.7 .0 68. 73...9 35..0 54. 75..4 67. .2 33.. 52. with steps numbered from zero at the bottom to ten at the top.0 3. “Do you feel safe walking alone at night in the city or area where you live?” Homicide rate: Number of intentional homicides—that is.. 35.5 .9 72.0 64. .2 68.0 77.0 48.6 ..0 . . ...5 29. . 52.0 49.8 4. .1 63. . ..4 88.0 54. .0 49. 53.0 48. .0 ... . . .. .0 77...0 62. calculated as the percentage difference between the HDI and Inequality-adjusted HDI. .1 82.. . 37. .2 14.0 79. 84..0 62.4 ..8 8. . 58..9 21. .. 12. ..9 76.1 32. 45.7 58... . . On which step of the ladder would you say you personally feel you stand at this time. 6.000 people.0 62. ..2 . “In this country. 66..1 56.. . Table 9  Social integration | 177 .0 .... . . 8. 4. .1 35.0 75... 85.. .7 3. . Suicide rate: Estimated total number of deaths from purposely self-inflicted injuries. . .. 71.9 69.4 4.0 . in the total population or of a given sex or age.0 .2 65.. . . .9 19.9 14.1 .6 14. .0 43...1 . .7 .2 . 49.. .0 86..4 14...0 84. .2 61. .. 5.4 57. as a whole..3 . ... Column 12: UNODC (2012)..9 47.4 63.3 .. 16...3 50. . .7 62.2 40. . 3. 71.0 26. 10. 28.2 ..7 39..2 36.3 59. .8 58.0 54.5 .0 89....9 72.. .8 72. . . do you have confidence in the national government?” Perception of safety: Percentage of respondents answering “yes” to the Gallup World Poll question.0 .0 ..1 . of Marshall Islands Monaco Nauru San Marino Somalia South Sudan Tuvalu Human Development Index groups Very high human development High human development Medium human development Low human development Regions Arab States East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Least developed countries Small island developing states World NOTES a Based on the Gallup survey question on overall satisfaction with city.2 14. Democratic People’s Rep..7 68. and the bottom of the ladder represents the worst possible life for you.0 33. ..5 77..4 71. 59.. . . . . ... .. 1..1 77. Columns 13 and 14: WHO (2012c)..6 .. .8 84. 0.... ..6 4..1 83.0 3. ..0 58. .8 15. . 53..2 23. .. .0 42. “In this country.0 35.0 75. 58.9 60.0 63.0 81. .8 61.9 5. .8 ..0 57. .0 15.. . . . unlawful deaths purposefully inflicted on a person by another person—expressed per 100.1 .0 22..

7 63.4 .5 237.8 405.0 4.1 157.0 .5 81.7 .271.0 12.1 5.7 57.1 7.4 64.1 14. .1 38.2 23.3 11..3 . 15.1 28.1 10..3 43.8 10. 12.8 75.. 20.9 6.9 21.. 50.0 .3 14.5 55.8 28.9 23.6 .2 12.9 9.6 157.4 52.7 411. 24.7 9.8 4. .0 5.5 3.5 64.8 4..7 68.0 20.5 1.8 41.4 12.3 12.0 74.8 29.8 4.8 29...0 178 | Human Development Report 2013 .7 36.7 12.2 19. 50.9 8.4 95.2 1.9 59.9 . 7.8 51. 48.7 30.3 54.0 77. .6 88.1 58...8 71.8 67.7 5.7 4.4 4.8 18.5 49.8 .9 5.7 73.0 4.6 .2 79.7 . 71.5 20.5 67.9 22..2 86. 446.1 0.8 34.9 .1 76.0 . .3 15.6 0.7 37.4 .5 31.6 9.7 7. .6 39.9 d .6 32.9 34..6 31. 34. 13.5 69.7 13.0 73.7 83.1 37.3 176. ..1 .8 16..7 .5 69.0 24.. .1 22..1 49.3 .4 4.6 .5 21..2 12...8 24. .8 592. 5.6 16.4 0.. .5 82.1 16..7 5...0 1.1 84...0 22.2 64.2 .9 48.0 22.0 7. .5 13.9 18. 6. 2.7 74.9 73.7 33. 14.5 28. .2 69..9 18. 11.6 425. .2 5.0 63.1 2.9 75.3 ..5 72.3 3.7 21.8 70.5 12..3 34.2 .4 .6 .6 11.8 26. 22.2 67.7 351..0 10..0 .1 8.7 13.4 5.9 .3 143.8 8.7 79. 14.5 .1 64.2 15.5 12.8 5.1 .3 5.6 692.5 48.10 International trade flows of goods and services TRADE OF GOODSa Exports of merchandise goods ($ billions) (% of GDP)c 2010 Imports of merchandise goods ($ billions) 2010 (% of GDP)c 2010 TRADE OF SERVICES Exports of services ($ billions) 2010 (% of GDP)c 2010 Imports of services ($ billions) 2010 (% of GDP)c 2010 COMPOSITION OF MERCHANDISE GOODS Share of merchandise exports Share of merchandise imports (%) (%) Agricultural exports 2010 Manufactured exports 2010 Agricultural imports 2010 Manufactured imports 2010 Parts and componentsb (% of manufactured exports) 2010 (% of manufactured imports) 2010 Table HDI rank 2010 Very high human development 1 Norway 2 Australia 3 United States 4 Netherlands 5 Germany 6 New Zealand 7 Ireland 7 Sweden 9 Switzerland 10 Japan 11 Canada 12 Korea.4 69..2 25.4 6.. .0 17.3 16.4 59.1 14.3 68..1 7.2 246.6 20.4 14.1 10.6 15.3 4.4 48.8 .2 60.4 20.7 73. 23. 36..3 315.0 66.7 .5 . .2 56.1 34.8 13.8 14.0 10..1 72.5 4.. 8.1 7.8 11.0 9.3 46.5 30.9 72.0 6. 43.1 11.6 12.1 9.9 49.7 44.0 19.7 10.4 30.0 10.7 70.8 19.8 26.9 440.6 0.7 13.7 97..121.2 14.4 64..5 .8 16..7 6.6 91.4 d 4..4 .1 44.0 87.5 487.. .2 76. 68.0 84.5 .9 30.4 68.7 19.3 .9 29.2 16.7 9.7 62. .8 16.9 20.5 6.1 19.5 75.6 32..1 78...6 37.4 2.0 13.9 96.7 23..2 75.1 24.3 3.2 0. 17.2 2.2 15.8 65.6 27.9 32.0 2..3 26.3 16. 23.0 10. 13. 0.5 84..0 .7 13.4 84..2 7.3 14.2 .3 60. 11.6 37.7 48. .6 7.7 .5 1.2 6.4 52.9 35..4 65.6 9.6 75.2 8.9 76.1 24.8 72.5 10. . 11.5 26..3 71.0 18.7 14..6 42..6 63.1 1..3 10.2 28.7 3. 21. .5 2..5 9.4 0.4 .1 14.1 ..2 46..9 38.2 19.0 65.3 8.2 86.5 76.1 9.4 68.3 3.8 28.7 .2 . .4 .5 30.8 441.3 0.1 65.6 11.8 29. 11.1 60.8 20.0 9.. 27.6 10.0 8.3 15. 2.9 144.7 56..7 63.3 168.9 47.1 6.5 87.7 37.0 85. 68.5 4.4 25..7 14. 61.1 187.8 5.1 15.9 70.8 13.0 28.5 402.2 20. 63.0 23.3 195.1 . 5. 5..4 28.3 8.3 17.3 1....8 3.5 .4 203.9 30.5 2.8 56.. 4.1 8.6 10.5 1.3 3. .1 32.1 . China (SAR) 13 Iceland 15 Denmark 16 Israel 17 Belgium 18 Austria 18 Singapore 20 France 21 Finland 21 Slovenia 23 Spain 24 Liechtenstein 25 Italy 26 Luxembourg 26 United Kingdom 28 Czech Republic 29 Greece 30 Brunei Darussalam 31 Cyprus 32 Malta 33 Andorra 33 Estonia 35 Slovakia 36 Qatar 37 Hungary 38 Barbados 39 Poland 40 Chile 41 Lithuania 41 United Arab Emirates 43 Portugal 44 Latvia 45 Argentina 46 Seychelles 47 Croatia High human development 48 Bahrain 49 Bahamas 50 Belarus 51 Uruguay 52 Montenegro 52 Palau 54 Kuwait 55 Russian Federation 56 Romania 57 Bulgaria 57 Saudi Arabia 130.2 50..5 9..6 38.6 21.2 6.2 30.4 38..7 3..9 310.9 38.4 559. .6 7.4 63. 2...0 25.0 40.6 466.4 17.7 49.2 8..8 .7 .6 1.6 9..2 2.4 11.2 .6 13. 3.6 11. . 24.4 .7 24. 51.2 74.0 29.5 35.8 159.1 87.5 59.5 13..6 9.9 36. 5.6 37.7 11.3 . 63.3 4.9 .9 8.6 .9 21.3 54.2 26.9 24.2 5.0 66.7 3.4 23.7 88.5 .0 73.. 4.7 37.7 .1 .9 25..5 12.1 37..0 2..3 27.0 9.8 .7 58.8 7..0 17.1 12.7 2.5 148.8 32.0 .7 26.9 31.0 .4 19.3 26. 8.6 6.2 18. 15.4 70...3 67.2 7.4 16.7 20.1 29.1 1.2 7. .0 5..9 0..7 45. 4.0 11.1 125.6 60.2 8..5 . 2..9 12.7 4.8 21.9 11.3 118.4 36.3 18.0 8.3 19.9 36.0 63.7 13.5 389.6 14.2 1.8 5.7 .7 49.6 245.5 9.0 26.3 46. 13.0 22.3 ..4 83..5 68.9 492. 15.4 106.3 55.7 128.6 11. .6 73.7 19.5 49..5 769.8 21.5 .2 9.4 49.6 141. 94.1 108.5 129.8 388..5 23.2 .. 73.8 124.4 d .1 50. . .6 22..4 87.9 4.8 81.3 67.7 41.3 6.1 .7 10.7 16.1 20..9 26. 110.3 38.6 . 24.6 7.2 38.1 16.4 26.. . 98.9 31.3 25.1 16.2 362.1 78..3 3.6 14.2 6.7 32.5 7.7 29..1 25.1 57.8 6.2 31.4 50.9 31.0 16.6 11.6 62..2 11.8 9.7 8. .7 21.7 18.9 47.8 11. 17.4 57.7 45.9 174. 18.9 1.9 26.0 5.066..0 61.9 23.0 22.1 43.1 78.5 206.8 10.5 0.3 12. 62.4 7.5 112.2 150.0 56.5 62. .4 5.5 59.8 9.2 12.0 . 67. 66.1 12.7 79.1 33.9 79.8 39.4 70. 6.7 59.6 16. .7 19.3 7. .966.7 70.3 13. 81.5 36. 2.1 1..8 .5 28.0 54.8 3.2 263.3 8. 14.8 18.2 13.5 544.1 17.1 d 11.5 11...4 8..1 43.3 9.5 29.9 6.9 1.5 32.2 68.1 16.6 5.3 56.5 22.0 50.2 14.0 14.1 67.9 24.. Republic of 13 Hong Kong.3 158.3 84.6 50. .7 14.1 17.9 96.4 237.5 27.7 25.3 25..2 19.4 66.1 10. 15.2 20.7 14. 6..3 19..8 1.9 180..6 42.5 1.5 39.8 2.0 74. 24.6 62. 0.6 . 2.2 5.9 .6 28.2 36...4 2. .2 56.3 400.9 50.2 .6 8.3 4.2 6.7 17.0 3.2 6.3 132.4 20. .5 8. 248.8 21..7 22.8 52.8 511.8 26.8 59.1 38.2 6.4 9.6 5..4 50.8 56.3 14.2 .7 .

9 8..4 21.3 96 Dominican Republic 4.6 23.7 21.8 31.5 40.0 16.0 .8 16.2 3. 73.5 26.4 3. 17.4 14.7 41. 89.. 16.8 .1 .8 16. 48.1 15.2 1.2 0.7 .1 60.7 74.9 1.7 10.3 0.1 11.4 8.3 2..7 5.2 .5 5.7 8...9 3. 31..2 .3 31.. 6. . 34..1 .3 53. 1. .5 19.7 5.5 62.5 ..1 18.4 0. 24.1 .0 6.0 69 Kazakhstan .3 .2 5.1 0.4 39. Bolivarian Republic of 67.4 1.3 .6 0.9 101 China 1.1 15.4 .2 7. 1.6 8.3 72 Saint Kitts and Nevis 0.5 73.6 31..6 58.0 3. 9.9 5.9 10.5 .. Table 10  International trade flows of goods and services | 179 ..5 0.6 .6 96 Samoa 0.8 78. .1 1.0 18.0 .4 87.4 20.1 10..6 15.8 ....9 17.3 37.8 73.7 56.4 48. 0..7 2.7 301.1 1.5 33.3 17...2 .5 7. 0.1 38.5 d 21.3 . . 5..6 13..7 21.8 7.7 3.2 71.6 . 1.8 .7 .3 28.2 12. 20. 110 Palestine.3 . 11.6 16.8 1..7 ..2 2..8 5.9 25. 15. 16. 59 Panama 0.4 42.0 108 Mongolia .4 d 111 Paraguay 4.9 9.6 39.0 0.1 21.3 23.6 185..3 44.4 44.. 54.2 8.5 .9 30.4 16. .4 .9 18.7 .4 13. 63.8 54.8 16.0 46. 38..1 8.4 5.3 15.8 76.9 59.9 15. 164.8 0.8 10.. 67. 6.6 8.. 3.3 7. 4.6 3.7 52.2 18.6 . 8.3 62 Costa Rica 9.7 97.8 5.8 77 Peru 35.4 14..3 6. 64 Malaysia 198.9 54.3 73.. 62...3 43.0 180.9 11.0 47.3 37..0 50.6 15.4 28.3 93 Algeria 57.8 ...1 .5 112 Egypt 26.1 94 Tunisia 16.2 9.2 72.0 91 Colombia 39.3 . 42.7 14.7 22..0 5.4 . 67 Antigua and Barbuda 0.0 93.0 22..7 26.2 0.7 .5 16.3 ..9 69.1 16.0 .8 9.6 .7 30.0 56.0 72.0 . 9.5 7. 2.7 15.0 .7 6. 116 Syrian Arab Republic 11.2 78 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 2.5 2.2 171. . 61.6 39.3 5.0 47.1 14. 31.8 2.0 .0 96 Belize 0. 1.0 13.1 17.8 31.0 63 Grenada .9 0.5 8...0 19.2 49.2 60.6 34. 34.7 38..8 96 Fiji 0. 2..0 16.3 ..5 0..0 0.3 25...4 Medium human development 95 Tonga 0.5 43. 92.0 96.5 9.Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World TRADE OF GOODSa Exports of merchandise goods ($ billions) HDI rank 2010 (% of GDP)c 2010 Imports of merchandise goods ($ billions) 2010 (% of GDP)c 2010 TRADE OF SERVICES Exports of services ($ billions) 2010 (% of GDP)c 2010 Imports of services ($ billions) 2010 (% of GDP)c 2010 COMPOSITION OF MERCHANDISE GOODS Share of merchandise exports Share of merchandise imports (%) (%) Agricultural exports 2010 Manufactured exports 2010 Agricultural imports 2010 Manufactured imports 2010 Parts and componentsb (% of manufactured exports) 2010 (% of manufactured imports) 2010 59 Cuba .7 .4 d 2.7 5..8 79... 45.. .7 . 64 Libya ....5 37.3 23.3 67.1 29.0 d 6.4 2...5 3.2 3.2 0.5 6. 12.5 71 Venezuela. 9.1 1...5 21.9 4.3 .5 54..7 17. 67.4 41..4 6.1 13.7 d 78 Ukraine 51. 65.3 18. 22..1 40.7 ..0 1.5 .0 68.3 .3 0. Plurinational State of 7..5 13.0 43.0 17.5 .3 2.6 1..3 1.3 13.8 0.3 193.5 13.0 58. 66.0 12.1 49.. 4.9 .3 .0 . 0.2 0.6 .5 114 Uzbekistan .4 4.8 60... 20.3 0.8 ..1 0.0 0.8 60..8 10.7 17.9 2.8 .9 28.0 106 Gabon 5.8 57.4 19.4 2. 4.1 .7 7.7 48.8 .6 21. 67.1 2. 22.6 77.7 d 0.9 20.7 17.0 27. .2 2.4 59. 66.3 28.1 78.3 23. 15.9 0..2 .4 1..0 84 Oman 31.5 74.6 0.8 1. State of 0.6 16.0 .1 .8 62.... 8..0 61.6 24.5 11.0 76 Iran.8 17. 9..6 57..4 8.6 47. 11..0 67 Trinidad and Tobago 10.3 20..2 . 17.8 82 Azerbaijan 21.0 72 Dominica 0. 47. 14.0 8.0 12.. 6.5 5..8 .1 3.6 32. 5..4 34.8 .1 18. 54.4 80 Mauritius 1. .9 61.577.. .2 88.8 8.3 83 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 0.289.1 ..0 0.5 0. 9.5 11.0 72 Georgia 1.0 0.5 .2 55.1 . Islamic Republic of 83.6 12.8 102 Turkmenistan .4 9.9 6.7 16.6 22.5 15.4 10. .5 31...5 16.5 ..5 . 2..6 3..1 4.5 48.0 1. Federated States of ..2 87 Armenia 0.5 7.9 7.6 30. .6 .9 15.5 ..9 0.5 90 Turkey 114. 0.1 0.3 12.9 .4 .9 16.2 6.9 28...3 .0 .8 4.0 37.8 14.9 3..6 12.4 5.1 20.8 2.6 0. 12...9 30.0 16. 70 Albania 1.9 0.2 13.1 ..2 0.9 4.6 1. 19. 61.6 10.2 1.7 61 Mexico 298.4 .5 .1 100 Jordan 5. 24.8 179.4 85 Jamaica 1.3 d .1 17.7 1.6 15.1 20..7 6. 1.7 9.5 62.4 4.6 0.8 31.4 36.8 82.5 81 Bosnia and Herzegovina 4.9 48.5 10.8 .7 20.0 d 27.8 25.8 64 Serbia . 13.4 54.9 21.9 114 Philippines 51.6 26.3 4..7 40.9 .1 18.3 73.1 28.4 5. 10.0 3.7 1.6 87.6 .1 21.3 . 6.2 4..1 .7 41. 22.2 2..7 5.4 2. 103 Thailand 195.6 6. Republic of 0..6 1.1 .7 20.4 9. .5 3..9 14.. .3 10.7 20.3 .6 .1 5. 40. 24. . . 6.3 26.5 17.. 0.7 2.8 9. 76.1 12.6 .0 58.2 0.7 25.0 .4 2.0 7.......3 54..2 40. 15..5 .8 4.1 25.6 .2 25.0 3...0 4.3 17...9 14.6 12.0 27.5 12.5 0.6 80.5 73. 3.1 . 0.9 21.4 27.. 0...9 16.1 105 Suriname 2.. 18.5 60.2 20. 71.8 .6 18.2 24. 11.2 3. 4.5 .2 21.4 27.5 21.0 18.6 22.8 30.8 78.9 62.6 85.2 31.3 11.8 23..5 9.0 18.8 46.0 d 60.8 52.9 74.9 .5 3. 6.4 117 Micronesia..7 35.9 11.4 .. 9.1 1. 38..0 . ...4 44.6 56.2 54.2 50. 7. 67.7 79.3 104 Maldives 0..5 25.7 15.6 15.. 13.5 3.7 19.8 24.5 3.4 . 2. 33.6 4.0 .3 30.6 85 Brazil 197..5 29. 10.0 63.0 .4 .2 27.0 66.2 90.3 17. .1 . .. 37.7 21.0 8..1 . .0 0.7 10. 50.2 11. 17.6 15.1 63. 34..5 .8 0.6 5.0 27.5 .6 17.4 10.9 . 13.1 7..1 19.. 12.5 35..2 2.7 70.4 72..2 63.5 80. 0.9 53.1 .2 5.2 2.6 18.0 18.8 10.9 3.9 1.5 11.9 25.. .1 8...6 1..9 11.5 17..8 2.3 54.1 1.7 .2 15.0 .2 .3 28.7 ..3 41.9 88 Saint Lucia .6 62.6 .1 18.. 89 Ecuador 17. 23.2 .3 60. .2 .1 22.1 18.3 0.7 13.5 6.1 45. . 11.4 18.9 1.3 60..4 66.3 13.8 . 14. 4.3 49. ..3 72 Lebanon 4.3 50. .5 108 Bolivia.1 .2 .6 9.6 6.9 15. .3 54. .1 15.4 13.5 12.4 d 107 El Salvador 4...2 72..8 0. 54. 12. 23...3 4.4 8. . 12.6 27.8 .5 31.1 54.8 7.9 11.7 18.3 113 Moldova. 0.5 d 0.3 17.4 11.5 92 Sri Lanka 8. .7 14..8 76. 43.7 4.9 11.4 2..

1 6. 29.9 .0 0.0 6.0 d 3..4 6. 0.4 6.7 .6 2. 5. 16.1 4.1 8.9 .9 21.2 ..2 6.0 . 6.3 13.2 8.0 32.2 ....1 58.3 12.4 .6 16.4 7.4 .4 0.4 . 14..4 0.4 21..2 0.. . 8. 3.2 d .2 22.2 d 5.2 .7 36.2 12.9 . 5.6 0.8 11.9 20.3 17.. 22. 65.2 0.9 .4 5..3 6.6 43.. 23.1 78.7 62.3 6..0 . 53. .2 35.2 5.1 0.. 18.6 d 6.4 2.4 1.5 5..9 .7 6..2 1.7 52.0 .5 .2 30.1 .7 .table 10  International trade flows of goods and services TRADE OF GOODSa Exports of merchandise goods ($ billions) HDI rank 2010 (% of GDP)c 2010 Imports of merchandise goods ($ billions) 2010 (% of GDP)c 2010 TRADE OF SERVICES Exports of services ($ billions) 2010 (% of GDP)c 2010 Imports of services ($ billions) 2010 (% of GDP)c 2010 COMPOSITION OF MERCHANDISE GOODS Share of merchandise exports Share of merchandise imports (%) (%) Agricultural exports 2010 Manufactured exports 2010 Agricultural imports 2010 Manufactured imports 2010 Parts and componentsb (% of manufactured exports) 2010 (% of manufactured imports) 2010 118 Guyana 119 Botswana 120 Honduras 121 Indonesia 121 Kiribati 121 South Africa 124 Vanuatu 125 Kyrgyzstan 125 Tajikistan 127 Viet Nam 128 Namibia 129 Nicaragua 130 Morocco 131 Iraq 132 Cape Verde 133 Guatemala 134 Timor-Leste 135 Ghana 136 Equatorial Guinea 136 India 138 Cambodia 138 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 140 Bhutan 141 Swaziland Low human development 142 Congo 143 Solomon Islands 144 Sao Tome and Principe 145 Kenya 146 Bangladesh 146 Pakistan 148 Angola 149 Myanmar 150 Cameroon 151 Madagascar 152 Tanzania.6 . . 1.8 57.. 7. 18.0 5.1 .8 8.0 .5 21.1 15. 86. 7.7 33.9 58.9 16.8 54. .5 42.5 31.9 .. ..8 2..8 66.5 .0 23.6 5.5 12.9 .3 ... 29. 8. ....5 44. 74..0 2... 27.9 0..2 35..8 8. 0.1 0.8 32..1 16.3 16.2 ..3 18.5 ..8 8.3 52..6 10.1 22.7 6.5 .1 6..2 .. 1.1 0.5 0. 50..0 27. 17.9 23.8 11.4 0..3 57.9 0.6 d 9.5 16.1 .3 16.1 75.2 0. 24..2 53.0 17. 22.8 .0 ..5 .2 .8 9.0 . 64.2 24.8 ..0 10.4 .5 17.2 .9 49. 22.7 20.. 0.5 65..1 1...0 18..4 96.4 38. 3. .3 27.6 .2 ..3 .3 17.4 .8 ..6 .5 1. 1. 48... 14..8 25.3 0. 12.2 116.8 1. 74. 0.1 . 17.5 22.1 ..6 d 157.1 .7 .. 36. 0.. 7.7 . 4.7 . 12. 27.9 0. 11.2 ..2 15..6 16. 0..9 4. 13.1 52.2 .3 0. 5..0 .4 . 0..0 d 3.1 .1 17..0 d .4 .7 20..1 .0 .2 1.7 10.2 0.1 1.7 0..2 38..5 69. 13.7 70.4 52.2 8.7 .5 7.1 .7 .4 .1 15.0 3. 81.3 13. 72. 1.6 .6 7.6 .0 4. 84.5 79.0 5. 67.6 36.1 32.3 d .9 86.2 .2 7..6 . 71..0 5.8 . 37.5 . 0....5 0.0 4. 5.7 19.4 1.3 36. 21.. 10.0 .7 6.8 67.2 3.9 46. 0.1 ... 17. United Republic of 153 Nigeria 154 Senegal 155 Mauritania 156 Papua New Guinea 157 Nepal 158 Lesotho 159 Togo 160 Yemen 161 Haiti 161 Uganda 163 Zambia 164 Djibouti 165 Gambia 166 Benin 167 Rwanda 168 Côte d’Ivoire 169 Comoros 170 Malawi 171 Sudan 172 Zimbabwe 173 Ethiopia 174 Liberia 175 Afghanistan 176 Guinea-Bissau 0.8 0. 7.3 2.2 ..0 4..0 23.3 18.0 64. 1. 79.3 . 350.. 35.2 2...8 2. 12.9 19.8 68. 61.5 14..5 8.7 .8 .1 d 7.3 30.1 1.4 3.6 .0 71.5 11.4 0.3 18.0 22.5 57. 0.2 0..4 32.7 92..1 13.6 . 18.0 84.2 .0 8.2 9. 14.2 46.2 .6 11.0 3.9 .0 .3 0. 220.5 8.9 29. 180 | Human Development Report 2013 .0 62.0 22.3 .9 3.5 34.8 35.8 17. 29.3 ..1 .3 1..1 11.4 1.7 .. 56..2 24.3 61..0 26.6 4. 3.7 20.4 0. 28..9 ..8 .0 4.. . .7 14...0 49..0 15.7 .7 7. 15.9 51...9 3. 1.4 4. 32.3 0.5 11.2 5. 0.6 60.3 .1 35.4 . 0.7 2.8 7. 3. 7.8 .1 .3 1..8 6.8 16.0 .6 60.8 0...4 44. 19...6 65..6 0.. .5 20.1 .8 .2 0.7 5. 0...1 1.7 .5 78... 11.0 .6 .5 8..0 8.8 14.7 .6 4. 72. 16... 2.7 2.7 5.. 15.7 61.5 15..2 16.2 7.7 7.1 0..7 .1 0.1 79..8 15..8 . 0.7 28.8 6..4 .8 17.8 . 6.2 d 38.7 15.9 43. 7.0 27.4 18.3 . 64.4 .8 1..5 3. 2.5 0.2 d 10.. 13..7 11.4 30..7 .4 2.2 20..1 29. 2.1 d .9 63.3 2. 14.1 14.7 13.1 .6 3.0 24.8 . 74.1 21.9 4.9 1.8 .9 79.9 21.9 2.0 .8 40.0 6..5 .6 ...0 44..6 . 0..6 .7 42.0 .8 59.8 37.. 10. 19..9 .4 0.4 .8 0.. 0.8 10.7 47.0 .4 ..7 28. 12... 0.2 .2 0.0 12.3 0. 0..8 .5 .1 d .0 .3 1..0 .8 0.8 3..1 .8 6. 68..2 59. 21.4 4. 10.3 9.0 6.0 4. 83.5 0.6 . 13...9 19.3 d ... 67..5 19.4 0.6 .6 42.6 .3 33. 28.9 . 54..7 2. 0..0 .3 18.5 86.1 0.4 2..4 11.7 .1 .8 14.8 22. 18.4 17.0 . 8. 18. 71..3 ..8 16.5 123.4 . 2.6 d 0..3 9.2 0.4 . 30.8 .8 . 19.3 26. 0. 17. 7. 44.5 51.1 7.4 14.9 48.. 43.0 0..4 5.8 .0 .4 52.7 17.. . 9.. 23.7 4. 23.0 5.2 d .1 d 0.. 2... 7..1 136. 0.8 .8 .3 84.7 .7 20.7 8.6 8..9 0.5 0.3 1.6 3.3 .7 5.2 39.1 .7 2... 23.2 8.3 25.0 47. 5.7 0.1 0.0 17..0 d 135..5 21. 14.9 . 0. 49. 5.9 22.9 17. 2.6 .. 5. 27.. 19..7 1.5 8..3 11.8 d 6.. 5. 19.2 .6 1..3 .4 .2 0.8 6. 57. 69.2 115.2 68.5 5.3 63. 30..2 1.9 35.. 9. 0.8 . 18...2 32.1 ...7 1..3 14.4 24. 60. ..4 .3 .0 .6 .1 ..8 ..7 82.7 ..9 18.6 4..9 7.. .3 28..4 ..1 9. 2.5 . 0.. 14.1 8..5 6.3 .7 10.4 .3 5..0 .. 5.9 30.8 0.4 14.9 29.2 .8 0.1 . 52.2 4.5 1..7 4.9 .0 27. 40.1 d 4. 44.3 1. 18. 5.3 .9 69.1 20.7 0.9 .0 31. 3.8 0.6 56.3 0. 22.6 46.4 0.9 18.1 13.6 11.6 ....5 33.7 0.2 2.7 30.2 6. 5.6 13.1 12. 0... 14.2 . 0. 18.6 . 0. 0.2 37.5 41....0 3. 15. 2.4 12..8 2.1 0.0 45.5 17.2 95.5 13.3 69... 4.9 0. 13.5 38.2 29.5 59. 81.4 6.0 d 2.4 29.7 31.7 16. 4...6 .7 .0 0..6 13.5 14.1 16.3 d 11.0 9. 17.8 1.9 .7 .9 .5 16.9 8.3 0.0 8.8 7. 23.2 d 0..1 2.5 14.

20.6 18. . . 69.682.. . 29.3 ..218.5 .4 . 16. 17.9 . ..9 5.. 70.. .7 . 37. ..9 18. . . . .. ..1 22. Democratic People’s Rep.. ..333.2 .1 29. .0 ..3 3..0 . Imports of services: Imports of a heterogeneous range of intangible products and activities that changes the conditions of the consuming units or facilitates the exchange of products or financial assets. 20.8 132.1 0.. they are concorded with the Standard International Trade Classification using concordance tables. .. 4.. .2 0..0 1.8 .1 . .8 12..5 335. 21. .8 23.5 3.088. 2. d Refers to 2009.4 4. Parts and components: Intermediate goods used as an input in the production of manufactures for final consumption. .... 11..0 28...5 9.. ..9 .3 151. 5.3 26. 5..6 ..8 .. 68.3 . . 9.8 5.. 13. ..3 44.4 . . 30.3 .7 3.7 ..4 12.3 8. . .6 16.7 2.0 . . ... 19. . ... 66.6 26..2 23..1 37. ...3 5.. 18. .3 7. b For methodology of classification of parts and components.1 6. 9.3 . 61..7 .3 .5 7....889. 9. 8....1 15..6 . . Table 10  International trade flows of goods and services | 181 ... . .. 17...1 32. .3 237.1 d 4.0 136. 0..4 71. .. . 14.. .Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World TRADE OF GOODSa Exports of merchandise goods ($ billions) HDI rank 2010 (% of GDP)c 2010 Imports of merchandise goods ($ billions) 2010 (% of GDP)c 2010 TRADE OF SERVICES Exports of services ($ billions) 2010 (% of GDP)c 2010 Imports of services ($ billions) 2010 (% of GDP)c 2010 COMPOSITION OF MERCHANDISE GOODS Share of merchandise exports Share of merchandise imports (%) (%) Agricultural exports 2010 Manufactured exports 2010 Agricultural imports 2010 Manufactured imports 2010 Parts and componentsb (% of manufactured exports) 2010 (% of manufactured imports) 2010 177 Sierra Leone 178 Burundi 178 Guinea 180 Central African Republic 181 Eritrea 182 Mali 183 Burkina Faso 184 Chad 185 Mozambique 186 Congo.7 7.. . .4 2..7 2. .3 246.4 10.2 4.. . .. .1 . .5 . .. .2 10.4 38.3 8.. .2 466.. ..9 21.8 27. . c GDP in current dollars is averaged for 2009 and 2010.. .. .6 23. ..6 2. . 10.9 .1 ..1 0.7 . 51. 12.. .0 24. see Athukorala (2012) and its discussion paper version cited therein. of Marshall Islands Monaco Nauru San Marino Somalia South Sudan Tuvalu Human Development Index groups Very high human development High human development Medium human development Low human development Regions Arab States East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Least developed countries Small island developing states World . .1 0.2 . .1 16..409.. 24....1 86...3 ... MAIN DATA SOURCES Columns 1.9 . . . ..0 .. 0.2 d . 2.9 367. 2. 232. .7 93.9 0..960... Agricultural or manufacured goods as share of merchandise imports: Imports of agricultural or manufactured goods.....1 .6 7.6 8.. . 8.6 59...4 0.. Exports of services: Exports of a heterogeneous range of intangible products and activities that changes the conditions of the consuming units or facilitates the exchange of products or financial assets..9 0...7 . 5... .5 8. DEFINITIONS Exports of merchandise goods: Goods that subtract from the stock of material resources of a country by leaving its economic territory.2 ......... . 18.. . . . 9. . Columns 5 and 7: UNCTAD (2012). 5.5 28. 76.0 66..2 23.0 . 6..0 1. 11. expressed as a percentage of total merchandise imports. .6 .9 . ..6 . 13. .6 4. . Democratic Republic of the 186 Niger Other countries or territories Korea. 1. 37.0 4. expressed as a percentage of manufactured exports or imports..2 ..2 0. .. .7 .289.432. .1 857..5 11. ....8 1. 30. .3 188.2 26.8 18. 2.7 . ..4 17.. . .7 .. 49. ..7 14. .8 .2 69..6 39..9 0.. 3.3 29.. 6.9 42.6 .7 31...2 .9 24. 20. 81...4 .9 ..9 ....4 . 15. 9.9 19. 2..7 11. 54. 28...7 120.3 15. . 0..5 11..2 27.0 426.0 .3 ..9 842. ..4 33.1 .5 NOTES a All data on merchandise trade are extracted at the six-digit level of the 1996 Harmonized System nomenclature.1 .0 . . 3..2 14.2 23.5 1.. .6 .. .. 31.. .....1 1. ..6 . . for definitional purposes.. .6 3.. 3.3 .0 6.1 . and 9–14: UNSD (2012b).1 ..1 30..8 12..3 76.4 3.. . .5 .2 210..4 . ..1 9. . . .9 70. .5 . .. . 43. .0 4..9 . Agricultural or manufacured goods as share of merchandise exports: Exports of agricultural or manufactured goods.5 . 3.6 15.0 . ..1 0.8 21..5 21.2 2.4 0.475. 10. .6 418.3 61.2 3...8 82. 0..4 1.0 .. 21.3 15..348.1 .. 0.9 21. 8..5 ... 12.6 . Columns 6 and 8: HDRO calculations based on UNCTAD (2012) and World Bank (2012a)...4 79. .. 3. .8 ... 3. . .641. 13.. 29.5 .226. 1. .769.6 38..2 14.. 251.2 28. .8 18.. . ... ... 66.6 33. .5 .9 ..4 ..6 2. 2..9 8. 6.... 0. .4 . 0. expressed as a percentage of total merchandise exports...7 2.0 44.... 29.8 8. ..2 .. 2.1 .0 ..5 30.1 . ....4 .2 2.3 11.9 446. 67.1 . 1.. 0.8 7. Columns 2 and 4: HDRO calculations based on UNSD (2012b) and World Bank (2012a).8 302. .. Imports of merchandise goods: Goods that add to the stock of material resources of a country by entering its economic territory.1 0. . .2 .3 . 67.0 13.. .... ..8 . 3. .6 546.. .0 10.8 ..4 . 21.5 49....8 .6 30.

..0 4.49 0..7 12.7 9.3 . –0.5 10.3 0. 64.15 4.8 –3.8 30.4 0.1 5.1 2.8 6. 120.0 1.0 –3..0 21.4 2.5 2.869 f 52. 0.2 1.575 6... .69 0..0 1.2 .15 0.3 8.5 –0..58 .1 2. .1 9.18 0..0 4.0 38.13 2.88 .2 –0.02 0.2 3. .1 .2 13..6 –0.7 116.86 0. 638.1 3.36 1..173 1.3 2.7 12.71 1.298 h 1. 47.189 4..1 1.0 26.3 –0. 0.0 70..8 4.4 86.4 10.3 117.4 4.18 0.87 0.1 18.5 542.2 4.6 24.1 .8 0.5 3.3 6.1 2.7 10.05 0. –0.2 46.791 10.626 849 28.8 140. –3...8 8.148 3.5 1.75 0. .4 –0. .6 2.16 .756 f 1.4 19.00 1. .9 22.5 3.7 0.0 171.0 12. .9 .10 1.97 0. 555. .4 13.1 23.3 e .5 3.2 192.5 7.9 1.9 0. 0.8 2.7 2.8 64.3 17.6 76.047 10.3 –0.088 84 207 22.20 0. 6. 0.00 10. .3 2..3 18.883 26. 255.8 3.885 59..120 1.0 6.5 6. 0..2 1. 112.611 16.1 6.0 2.1 96. 15.6 2.0 118.9 11.6 4.7 .59 e 0.. –7.8 –0.. 52.. –3.6 –0.05 6.325 175 9.4 10.5 13.97 0..9 6.2 –0.1 –42. 1. 0.0 3.3 2.1 .6 15.3 2.9 148.5 –0.1 15.5 4.5 173.2 44.20 0.0 0. .6 .1 0.8 –1.7 4.9 ..4 35.8 4.4 2.8 8.2 6.0 25.65 2.0 16... .8 28.02 1.4 6.16 e 1.767 5.798 20.097 8.15 0. .1 .085 1...43 0..3 –0.2 4.5 182.91 0.6 1.9 –0.5 16..1 . 82..09 0.185 15...1 68.1 4..00 4. 173.57 0.5 .213 8.18 0.5 50. .2 11.8 6.5 3. 47.295 8.3 132.2 1.2 524.6 1.5 93.72 0.18 0.. 0.2 –1.8 2.4 ..8 22.5 201. 0.. ..6 –0.0 5.4 107.8 2.9 2.7 22.7 21.510 532 12.1 0.8 3.2 4.6 17.2 1..6 8. 69..6 9.6 .. 1. 179.6 102.281 7.5 182.7 1. 810.86 .6 .. ..7 18.4 0.16 0.9 .766 1.6 7.1 .8 –1.1 –0.628 8.2 422.9 18. 2.0 0.3 0.8 11.5 90.26 0.6 0. 13. 14. .0 8.7 .2 1.4 2.04 0.4 10.98 0.9 1..677 52 43..8 –55..8 2. 0.8 27.3 .3 4.9 –1.29 0.7 0.3 8..3 5.2 7.4 1.60 1..66 0.2 .50 0.56 0.8 –4..6 .2 10.1 .4 13.2 9..6 . 205.0 0.0 19.1 .9 2.7 11.. 9.0 1.. 0.007 g 157 f 2.000 people) 2005/2010d HUMAN MOBILITY International inbound tourism (thousands) 2010 International telephone traffic (minutes per person) Incoming 2005–2010c Outgoing 2005–2010c (% of population) 2010 2010 HDI rank 2007–2011c Very high human development 1 Norway 2 Australia 3 United States 4 Netherlands 5 Germany 6 New Zealand 7 Ireland 7 Sweden 9 Switzerland 10 Japan 11 Canada 12 Korea.8 . 0.2 4.27 7.2 75.8 18.2 .803 7.34 0. .7 13.370 119 2.2 34. .3 3.9 .76 2.26 7.8 19.4 34.0 2.2 . assistance Private net inflows receiveda capital flows (% of GDP) (% of GNI) 2010 (% of GDP) 2007–2011c Migration Remittances (% of GDP) Inflows 2010 Outflows 2010 Total reserves Stock of minus gold emigrantsb (% of GDP) 2007–2011c Stock of Net migration immigrants rate (per 1.6 2.3 .9 7..935 1.744 2.1 22.2 –0.2 0.1 111..0 17.27 2.4 643.9 6.6 1.6 –1..7 25.68 0.4 0.3 7.4 . 182 | Human Development Report 2013 . China (SAR) 13 Iceland 15 Denmark 16 Israel 17 Belgium 18 Austria 18 Singapore 20 France 21 Finland 21 Slovenia 23 Spain 24 Liechtenstein 25 Italy 26 Luxembourg 26 United Kingdom 28 Czech Republic 29 Greece 30 Brunei Darussalam 31 Cyprus 32 Malta 33 Andorra 33 Estonia 35 Slovakia 36 Qatar 37 Hungary 38 Barbados 39 Poland 40 Chile 41 Lithuania 41 United Arab Emirates 43 Portugal 44 Latvia 45 Argentina 46 Seychelles 47 Croatia High human development 48 Bahrain 49 Bahamas 50 Belarus 51 Uruguay 52 Montenegro 52 Palau 54 Kuwait 55 Russian Federation 56 Romania 57 Bulgaria 57 Saudi Arabia 2.56 . 0.56 2.6 4.9 0.0 17.1 3..470 2.7 17.0 190.9 1.830 2..2 13.4 –2.4 17.8 7. 22.2 1.6 5.7 4. .0 2.373 5.332 1....2 2.4 34.3 0. 1....4 12. .7 15.6 17.0 8.6 7.3 1..1 –7.2 –9.7 224.62 0. 105.33 2.1 24.9 .92 .1 96.. 26.3 441.. ..9 2.2 .1 18.9 2.2 1..3 10.3 0.9 .7 13. –0. 0.5 3. .525.1 16.7 10.1 6.7 7.6 4. –0.22 0. 152.875 2.2 34..82 e 0.6 14.0 822.11 Table International capital flows and migration FINANCIAL FLOWS Foreign Net official direct development investment.5 –1.2 20.6 3.40 2.2 .4 6. . . Republic of 13 Hong Kong.5 0. 241.8 7.0 2.8 0.1 8..0 1.6 3. 237.9 12. 24.3 3...1 1.111 4.12 0. 0.1 7.35 0.83 ..2 10.99 0. 1.3 90. .1 183.7 1.8 12..5 10.9 13.5 0.1 18.3 4.. 0.7 1.08 . 6.353 1.5 0. –0.32 .1 –0... ..2 –0.2 3.8 3. 88.6 40.004 9..5 0.3 2. .19 0.3 0.5 3..2 8.8 1.670 1...1 36...8 11.6 30..8 6.35 2.99 1..4 2.4 0.08 ..48 . .5 0.7 10.1 –0.8 21..62 0..6 12.7 14. .4 23.85 0.34 . 0.1 0.1 38.4 27.5 409. .60 19.7 3..8 160. .8 .61 0.4 .161 77.35 0.492 7.8 8. .3 35.65 3.3 .67 .92 0.0 8...8 3.4 5..3 3. 447. .21 0.8 7.6 41.3 0. .951 8.2 10.0 –0.5 1..8 40.3 0.. 0.4 14.8 15.8 –0. 0.9 1.50 .5 147.4 3.6 99.7 10.1 .6 484. 22.3 . 0.446. .03 .2 1.1 16.6 10.4 144.6 –0..7 25. ..4 0.9 . –4.9 9.850 .1 106.0 4.1 1.0 708...4 214.507 7.5 –0.76 . 314.6 .7 2.5 . .33 0.4 –0.1 5.1 .9 –1.19 0.7 3..9 19.16 0.1 60..3 –0.4 111.34 0.5 3.72 0.3 .1 22.9 39.2 94.0 –0..3 18.5 1.49 0..2 .9 –1.0 .0 ..6 2.50 0.3 80.63 0.9 137.2 .17 1.3 233.5 10.866 9..3 14.1 .47 e 1.9 28.0 3. .67 0.7 4.126 6. 1.8 3.186 22.8 48.2 –1..33 0.9 4.

5 3.10 5.125 632 130 4.1 3. 0.1 –4.2 .6 80.2 2.54 4..1 46.3 –0.1 28.7 1.8 25.5 5.2 13..5 2.7 –3.8 12.2 40.0 20.8 19.0 –0.6 6. 2.260 2. . .3 2..0 7.4 0.6 –2..0 7.1 .9 .2 –9.3 1.2 1.21 1..6 0.7 0.8 4.5 4.1 29.8 1.9 38.8 9.06 2..0 15.1 10.6 55..7 2.7 40.04 0.3 3.5 –3.3 . 3.4 21.6 6.5 12.9 0.9 –0.8 74.2 23.5 1.52 0.3 2.6 318..9 23. Federated States of 0.7 1. 2...0 –0.0 –5.5 58.2 3..7 3.6 3..9 23.033 2.5 8..0 5..6 26. .6 23.3 11.5 6.2 0.1 4. 37..8 3.8 309.9 –6.0 4. 178.0 5.2 3.8 203..7 6..8 4. –3.. 20.7 3.. 252.6 .6 2..6 61.7 –2.54 0.2 .5 0.6 .6 0.6 5.9 1.7 0.4 4.03 .9 4.87 0.5 .9 2.2 6.7 9.7 11.0 .922 575 306 1.8 22.5 3.2 68.8 213.1 10.1 18.5 0...5 4.393 2.6 38.034 2.2 2.1 . .0 0..5 18.3 1..1 0.4 22. Plurinational State of 108 Mongolia 110 Palestine.5 2. 16.7 1.20 0.26 1. 104.1 7.3 11.5 12.43 9. 23.0 7.3 2.0 0. 5.7 62.6 0.1 10.0 7.8 –3.9 21..6 36.7 10.7 –1..75 0.1 .9 292.051 8 3.0 47.37 0.8 59.299 262 21.5 –2.1 21.4 7.9 –5.. .1 6. 175.912 6.5 28.7 0.62 4.7 .324 22.0 0.14 0.03 .7 39.9 16.4 17.03 e 0.15 0.8 6.4 16. .6 2.8 1.9 ..93 19.19 14. 0.4 3..8 2.7 0.6 26.2 0..6 2.1 4.8 11.. 0.78 . 2.1 e 0.8 15.. assistance Private net inflows receiveda capital flows (% of GDP) HDI rank 2007–2011c (% of GNI) 2010 (% of GDP) 2007–2011c Migration Remittances (% of GDP) Inflows 2010 Outflows 2010 Total reserves Stock of minus gold emigrantsb (% of GDP) 2007–2011c HUMAN MOBILITY International inbound tourism (thousands) 2010 International telephone traffic (minutes per person) Incoming 2005–2010c Outgoing 2005–2010c Stock of Net migration immigrants rate (per 1.1 4. 19. 0.4 2.13 1.1 9. 20.10 e .4 0.4 10.7 5.7 54.8 –0.0 37.7 2. .0 –0. Islamic Republic of 77 Peru 78 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 78 Ukraine 80 Mauritius 81 Bosnia and Herzegovina 82 Azerbaijan 83 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 84 Oman 85 Brazil 85 Jamaica 87 Armenia 88 Saint Lucia 89 Ecuador 90 Turkey 91 Colombia 92 Sri Lanka 93 Algeria 94 Tunisia Medium human development 95 Tonga 96 Belize 96 Dominican Republic 96 Fiji 96 Samoa 100 Jordan 101 China 102 Turkmenistan 103 Thailand 104 Maldives 105 Suriname 106 Gabon 107 El Salvador 108 Bolivia..03 e .3 1.1 7.25 0.4 . .2 0. 7.1 224.63 2.6 20. 85.1 0..0 1.8 0. 206.0 1.6 9.5 11.4 .9 4.2 0.7 3.3 .7 –0.2 9.3 8.5 –0.7 10.5 92..9 9.9 18. 223.2 4..0 14.2 1..5 52.58 0.4 198.903 45 239 4.9 4. 32.01 0.3 7.4 10.4 –16.7 –0.0 17.9 2. .67 0.5 3.8 200.1 2.5 6.0 1.3 40.5 –0.1 3.8 –17.7 2.4 1.3 2.6 –16.1 6.8 43.6 36.000 2.. 4.7 5.9 1.0 1.1 15.. .8 9.5 . 2.3 243.07 e 0.3 0. 6.5 5.0 0.8 .280 72 1.0 13. .2 0.7 3.7 21.3 0.1 1.9 0. 0.5 1.8 2.9 –9.9 .5 25.55 8.0 0..20 0.11 2.9 16.11 13. 28.8 –0.8 .46 .5 3. 17.04 1.10 0.2 –1.0 1.03 2.0 –1...20 0.78 0.38 6.3 .4 . 0. .3 5.8 .7 43.3 828.5 4.1 2.9 –1.3 629.04 5.3 23.1 15.43 0.168 92 2.1 1.0 34.8 125.19 .9 2.0 –0..5 18.6 –0.6 11.0 4. .147 654 1.50 10.4 0.25 4.0 0.1 14.0 10.6 0.4 –2..3 19..1 7.53 5.6 10.73 .0 .7 0.2 11.3 15.6 3.57 10.8 3. .9 28.0 8.1 3.2 5.4 3.12 1.0 1.65 0. 2.936 792 205 358 1.7 36.8 25.3 3.4 3. Bolivarian Republic of 72 Dominica 72 Georgia 72 Lebanon 72 Saint Kitts and Nevis 76 Iran.664 8 15.2 23.8 0.3 13.6 6..4 –4.4 0.0 –2.3 9.0 2. 140.1 –3.08 0.Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World FINANCIAL FLOWS Foreign Net official direct development investment.. Table 11  International capital flows and migration | 183 .89 .5 0.69 1.8 104.1 –0.5 0.47 .3 26.4 21.2 7. 47.4 8.1 2.53 2. .1 0.6 96.4 .3 67.6 39.1 –1.44 2.2 6.4 2..4 .6 .02 0.3 11.2 0.9 0.6 17.150 807 457 522 465 14.7 0.7 23.5 49.6 7.86 e 0..1 10.72 2.5 9.41 8.7 2. 0.60 1..65 4.8 1. 2. 8.4 6. 140.75 0.047 27.8 .0 7.26 4.0 8.6 19..11 0.5 . Republic of 114 Philippines 114 Uzbekistan 116 Syrian Arab Republic 117 Micronesia.7 5.6 0.4 –9.06 0.2 .6 0.2 0.4 17. 32.3 85.0 4.. 43..0 .5 –1.8 6. 7.0 0.2 .7 488.5 –7.0 0.546 26 32. State of 111 Paraguay 112 Egypt 113 Moldova.5 10.6 35..2 .6 2.577 e 683 230 413 3.4 174.93 .4 487.6 5.7 22.6 .8 .57 0.4 0.9 14.6 5.0 1. .3 7.68 6.0 13.7 –0.4 .. 0.6 4.1 .2 19.9 4.417 615 77 2.04 0.9 0.18 0.6 2.000 people) 2005/2010d (% of population) 2010 2010 59 Cuba 59 Panama 61 Mexico 62 Costa Rica 63 Grenada 64 Libya 64 Malaysia 64 Serbia 67 Antigua and Barbuda 67 Trinidad and Tobago 69 Kazakhstan 70 Albania 71 Venezuela.3 1.3 –2.5 10.9 17.507 1.4 1.7 57.9 6.2 2.3 0.1 3. 48.52 6.1 315.3 2.. .2 19.5 4.5 1..4 32.4 0. –0..2 –0.9 –6.20 9.100 114 34 h 24. 428.12 2.5 16.6 14.3 4.4 5.82 1.9 19.048 e 5..4 1.4 2.203 935 365 1.5 .3 0. 2.14 0.02 0.65 5..4 820.3 4.8 .05 9.6 243.0 1..4 5.4 3.2 3.2 .5 –5.38 1. 95.0 0.3 33.71 4.45 23..6 45. 0.9 1.9 0.7 20.2 1.2 .6 3.0 5.4 –3. 223.7 –9..67 3.4 43.3 45.1 172.78 24. –6.2 54.2 2..56 6..32 e 1.7 6.4 6.1 16. 108..03 0.3 0.9 16.1 16.5 1.. 2..1 0.86 2.33 1.73 ..75 0..5 0.0 45.4 1..5 0..36 .55 0.557 55.0 17.4 87.161 1.4 7.5 75.53 23.96 0.520 975 8.31 0.9 0. .4 2.33 11.7 65.6 6.85 ..1 247.5 3.7 0.9 3. 135.2 5.

9 .7 5..5 17.6 0.9 15. .9 1.0 –0.23 .4 24.8 ..6 5.8 1.. 40.4 13.3 15.7 24. 0. 14.. 24. 34. 9.4 7.3 4. .03 3. .5 13. . 0.8 2.3 .9 –0.399 1.6 11. 0..4 24.27 0.7 0.2 4.4 0.9 0. 26.1 6.7 1. 0.9 1.24 .7 86.7 –2.5 20.2 –0.7 .1 –0.3 13.1 –7.57 0.2 .5 5. ...2 9....2 –1.1 –0.8 3.3 2.8 0.3 –0.0 3.0 3. .02 3.1 . 41.2 7.6 –1. 21.3 4.5 .2 16.3 0. 5.4 1..0 7..0 1.8 26.2 11.776 2. 1.6 6..6 12.7 6.5 18.9 0.03 34.76 0.9 3.2 3.41 0.1 2..4 1. .5 .2 5.27 3.2 8.9 0.9 2.7 –1..6 .5 0. 30 103..2 7.239 330 .38 0.2 1.1 0. 0.0 21.1 1.0 .1 13.2 2.09 e 11.10 10.0 –2.9 –1. 20.4 0.50 0.0 9. 15 746 420 2.747 984 1.0 15.2 0.5 5..78 1.4 2..59 5.2 5.3 0.05 .9 6. 13.1 6.8 0.0 –5.48 7... 7.2 0.9 19.5 9.41 0.07 0.7 –2.0 11. .. 3.2 10.4 16.518 382 1.88 2.1 3.4 3.9 12.1 .3 0. .9 2.9 10.5 0.9 19.95 . 0. .42 .. 114 h 603 414 150 536 423 946 815 53 91 h 199 h 666 . 110..9 –0.4 –2.27 0.5 0.99 22. .4 5.8 0.6 7.71 .3 49.8 9.3 4..7 12.6 –5.8 15.8 1..20 0. 5...5 61.288 1.. .7 –14.7 2.4 –0. 0.47 .5 3.2 5.5 4.. 0.0 9.0 0.3 9. . 1......5 50.6 .6 14.1 1.. 0.5 11.34 1.5 4.9 45.8 14.3 .0 –8.01 0..0 1.76 2.1 6.1 1.4 10.3 5.6 1.42 .2 –5.7 1..8 18..9 –1..2 –1.9 3.9 32.9 0.04 0. 12. 3.2 6.7 10. 10.3 1.1 3.3 2.9 14.48 0. 4.6 0.7 0.0 –9...7 7.8 1..5 10.6 0.9 12. 28.5 52. .2 1.3 5. 34.08 0. 25. United Republic of 153 Nigeria 154 Senegal 155 Mauritania 156 Papua New Guinea 157 Nepal 158 Lesotho 159 Togo 160 Yemen 161 Haiti 161 Uganda 163 Zambia 164 Djibouti 165 Gambia 166 Benin 167 Rwanda 168 Côte d’Ivoire 169 Comoros 170 Malawi 171 Sudan 172 Zimbabwe 173 Ethiopia 174 Liberia 175 Afghanistan 176 Guinea-Bissau 11...4 0...52 10.9 22.1 12.8 1.29 ..66 34.7 1.8 1.074 97 1.3 139. .8 1..4 3.63 0.09 8.4 .9 2.8 1.5 .5 2.1 1.1 –3.2 0.0 –1. 2.1 –4.31 0.53 1.7 0.9 2.4 –0..876 40 803 .. 50..8 1.12 .1 .2 . .65 0. ..6 17..8 –2.4 0.93 26. .6 1..5 1.9 1.27 3.2 3..8 6.4 0.29 0.5 7.0 2.0 45.3 2.1 12.0 1.011 9.000 people) 2005/2010d (% of population) 2010 2010 118 Guyana 119 Botswana 120 Honduras 121 Indonesia 121 Kiribati 121 South Africa 124 Vanuatu 125 Kyrgyzstan 125 Tajikistan 127 Viet Nam 128 Namibia 129 Nicaragua 130 Morocco 131 Iraq 132 Cape Verde 133 Guatemala 134 Timor-Leste 135 Ghana 136 Equatorial Guinea 136 India 138 Cambodia 138 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 140 Bhutan 141 Swaziland Low human development 142 Congo 143 Solomon Islands 144 Sao Tome and Principe 145 Kenya 146 Bangladesh 146 Pakistan 148 Angola 149 Myanmar 150 Cameroon 151 Madagascar 152 Tanzania.9 .9 0.1 3.8 2.9 76.7 12..87 .5 1. 14. –0.8 –1.316 325 3.1 1. 2.3 6.2 16..10 .5 3.6 12..4 5.0 –4..9 1. 12. 23.1 –3.3 1. 40.67 17.7 11.3 3. ..5 –0.11 5.9 28.0 3.7 1..5 5..1 1.32 2.1 3. . ..09 0...5 25...4 10.1 11.2 6.9 0.0 .0 0.8 0.3 20.7 1.71 0..55 0.7 1.23 1.8 .81 5.1 .49 3.7 2. 2.0 0..5 3.9 23.4 3.9 15.9 –2.8 16.1 0..1 .0 –0.36 10. 10..5 0. .19 0. 0.. 0..12 0.3 0.6 56. 10.3 –1.1 –8.3 1.41 0. .1 38.4 .4 28.09 2.4 3. .6 ..38 6.5 5.3 2.003 5f 8.9 0.5 39..7 10.9 3.3 4.5 42.85 0.96 7.6 .6 –1.2 7.1 .9 13.2 1.0 5.8 . 209.3 2. 0.6 0..7 1.02 1.9 3.3 2.4 150 2.6 7.8 46.2 .8 4.9 .5 13.2 20.98 .0 16.2 2.8 13. 0.6 11.2 0.8 0.13 12.4 1.6 .4 0.3 0.2 .6 5.6 0.3 45.0 .2 5.4 2.7 23.0 –0.5 ..8 .2 28.8 2. 2.5 1.3 0..7 16.1 2.9 ..6 9.3 0.9 .6 2.1 9.8 12.2 1.30 0..60 39.4 43.07 0.7 14.01 0.1 6.5 .11 5.3 7.7 2.0 21.5 4.99 5.4 9.8 15..9 .8 5. 0. 23.4 6.. 2.6 2.87 .27 1.4 4. 3.2 2.16 21.3 12.9 1.9 4.4 14..6 4..2 2. .3 0.9 0.0 –1.8 4. 4.4 4.9 e 11..469 267 855 425 311 298 196 783 1. 96.670 27 868 85 21 8 1.4 16.4 2.. 184 | Human Development Report 2013 .2 –10.6 2. 5.4 6.4 5...0 6. .32 0.2 1. .19 15.414 875 .7 6.6 6..3 0.5 .4 1.2 32.9 –1.8 20.7 2.2 2. .8 1. 0.4 14.3 0.65 0.9 3.5 13.3 10.5 4..9 175.9 25.4 14.5 ...3 3.7 2.0 45.5 7.14 ..23 10.1 –1.3 0.10 h .0 .1 2.table 11  International capital flows and migration FINANCIAL FLOWS Foreign Net official direct development investment. assistance Private net inflows receiveda capital flows (% of GDP) HDI rank 2007–2011c (% of GNI) 2010 (% of GDP) 2007–2011c Migration Remittances (% of GDP) Inflows 2010 Outflows 2010 Total reserves Stock of minus gold emigrantsb (% of GDP) 2007–2011c HUMAN MOBILITY International inbound tourism (thousands) 2010 International telephone traffic (minutes per person) Incoming 2005–2010c Outgoing 2005–2010c Stock of Net migration immigrants rate (per 1.6 . .40 .4 1.4 13.7 9.5 5. 3.00 .17 .9 37.1 4.1 .2 11. .91 0..1 .4 21.2 9...6 6.9 –2. 2. 5.8 3.7 0.68 0.3 16.. 20.9 16. 0.0 –7.78 . 0. 114.4 5.8 26.6 5.7 3.2 0.. 1.8 0.21 3. .4 1.3 –3.5 0.76 3.0 2.8 1.145 896 7.7 .43 0.6 1. 0.3 .6 45..5 8.4 3.5 –3.6 5.5 .95 0...7 26.0 4.8 9..9 ..4 119.8 0..5 35. . 38.

0 0. 5.6 22.7 2. ..7 71.3 2.8 3.22 1. .13 0... . Column 7: HDRO calculations based on data from World Bank (2011) and UNDESA (2011). . . 7..141 16.2 0..46 3.6 2.7 .2 . International telephone traffic.. Remittances.0 2.8 2.3 6. inflows: Earnings and material resources transferred by international migrants or refugees to recipients in their country of origin or countries where they formerly resided.6 1.1 13.. Net migration rate: Ratio of the difference between the number of in-migrants and outmigrants from a country during a specified period to the average population during the period. 1.7 3. .. –0..000 people) 2005/2010d (% of population) 2010 2010 177 Sierra Leone 178 Burundi 178 Guinea 180 Central African Republic 181 Eritrea 182 Mali 183 Burkina Faso 184 Chad 185 Mozambique 186 Congo..4 . excursionists) at national borders. same-day visitors.3 12. 0.6 6.8 1... ..1 14.1 . reinvestment of earnings.. 6.2 5.. 0. .. Democratic Republic of the 186 Niger Other countries or territories Korea.6 2.224 53 66 .13 0. Total reserves minus gold: Sum of special drawing rights.6 4.6 43.6 12.. other long-term capital and short-term capital.. expressed as a percentage of GDP.0 . ..01 1. 45.. 0.1 12. 1.8 16. .. 0. Column 8: HDRO calculations based on data from World Bank (2011) and population data from World Bank (2012a).9 . MAIN DATA SOURCES Columns 1 and 3–6: World Bank (2012a).5 3.1 10.6 3. b Some values may exceed 100% (see Definitions). .4 17.29 ..0 5.8 8.7 19..2 9. . 3.23 0. ..9 18..1 .. f Refers to 2007.915 15. Columns 11 and 12: HDRO calculations based on incoming and outgoing total telephone traffic data from ITU (2012)..3 .7 4. ..6 2. .379 11. 26.3 0. 0.7 2.4 31. . . ..81 0. 1.5 . Column 10: UN WTO (2012). . 4.08 .3 .. 5 279 . .484 149..0 39 201 30 i 52 84 169 274 31 2.. .7 24. International telephone traffic.. 4. 5...2 2.. incoming: Effective (completed) telephone calls (fixed and mobile) originating outside a given country with a destination inside the country.4 3.3 101.4 9.31 0.4 2..008 30.. ...8 23.8 ... 49.8 0.7 .020 76.1 –0. ..9 0.4 29. 16..1 0.6 .4 –0. ..7 14. 0.12 0.6 –1. of Marshall Islands Monaco Nauru San Marino Somalia South Sudan Tuvalu Human Development Index groups Very high human development High human development Medium human development Low human development Regions Arab States East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Least developed countries Small island developing states World NOTES a A negative value refers to net official development assistance disbursed by donor countries. 1.1 3. .5 0..0 1.3 8.. .25 0.8 2.. Column 9: UNDESA (2011). .4 1.4 2...8 2..99 1.4 1.3 5.9 8.7 2.5 –6. 62..8 . The definition of immigrant varies across countries but generally includes the stock of foreign-born people or the stock of foreign people (according to citizenship) or the combination of the two..2 –0...4 10... .52 .92 .Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World FINANCIAL FLOWS Foreign Net official direct development investment. c Data refer to the most recent year available during the period specified.5 . .2 2.0 9.6 56. expressed in minutes of traffic per person.. . International inbound tourism: Arrivals of nonresident visitors (overnight visitors. .1 .5 –1. .0 –0.81 4.. Stock of immigrants: Ratio of the stock of immigrants into a country.2 2.. .071 163. Compensation of employees is the income of migrants who have lived in the host country for less than a year. .7 . 4.2 0...3 19. outflows: Current transfers by migrant workers and wages and salaries earned by nonresident workers. .76 .87 ... .4 –1...000 people.9 0.0 13. expressed as a percentage of the country’s population. ..31 0.5 .9 . ...0 15.63 1.....63 .618 19.53 19. ..2 6.0 6. Remittances.1 1.09 6..28 . d Data are average annual estimates for 2005–2010.4 1.9 .782 917. 4..7 14. 189. .7 2. outgoing: Effective (completed) telephone calls (fixed and mobile) originating in a given country with a destination outside the country.4 13. e Refers to 2009. to recipients in their country of origin...6 0. 2 534.... . . assistance Private net inflows receiveda capital flows (% of GDP) HDI rank 2007–2011c (% of GNI) 2010 (% of GDP) 2007–2011c Migration Remittances (% of GDP) Inflows 2010 Outflows 2010 Total reserves Stock of minus gold emigrantsb (% of GDP) 2007–2011c HUMAN MOBILITY International inbound tourism (thousands) 2010 International telephone traffic (minutes per person) Incoming 2005–2010c Outgoing 2005–2010c Stock of Net migration immigrants rate (per 1. .1 .. .1 22. .4 3..4 3. .3 1.77 1. ..9 8. .3 16.7 3.901 66.05 0. reserves of International Monetary Fund (IMF) members held by the IMF and holdings of foreign exchange under the control of monetary authorities..7 2. Private capital flows: Net foreign direct investment and portfolio investment. expressed as a percentage of GDP.. . DEFINITIONS Foreign direct investment.9 0.0 14. Remittances are classified as current private transfers from migrant workers resident in the host country for more than a year.50 1... .2 23.. 7...1 4. .5 .91 2.4 0. expressed as a percentage of GDP.9 1. .7 40. .. 0.2 7. . Table 11  International capital flows and migration | 185 .3 1. 5. excluding gold holdings.41 .3 0.6 1.60 1.1 5..9 3. .6 0.43 .7 1.6 .13 .8 5. . 90.. .0 36.5 1.5 0.7 12.. . .9 .. .9 2.7 1.1 –1. 1.2 21. Column 2: World Bank (2012a) and OECD–DAC (2012).7 2.. Net official development assistance received: Disbursements of loans made on concessional terms (net of repayments of principal) and grants by official agencies to promote economic development and welfare in countries and territories in part I of the Development Assistance Committee list of aid recipients..8 3.5 22.5 3. expressed as a percentage of the recipient country’s GNI.. . Democratic People’s Rep. . expressed as a percentage of the country’s population..8 –1. ...3 –0.. ..8 13.082 .2 . . .8 0.. .5 0.99 5.. h Refers to 2008.4 13.1 3.968 199. Migrants’ transfers are defined as the net worth of migrants who are expected to remain in the host country for more than one year that is transferred from one country to another at the time of migration.. .. .8 1. .5 –0.76 0.1 8...6 9. irrespective of their immigration status.4 –3.. Data are expressed as a share of GDP. Stock of emigrants: Ratio of the stock of emigrants from a country to the population (not to the sum of population and emigrants).8 . .2 2.2 .. 2.3 2.2 5.39 1. .5 .3 2.540 116.2 20.06 0.0 0.3 3..2 33..0 7.3 –1. 120 .. expressed per 1...15 3. .8 1.3 4. net inflows: Sum of equity capital.6 2.8 24. . tourists. 37. g Refers to 2006. 0.4 . 9.0 19.1 –0. . 1.3 –0. 13.4 0..4 1...6 –1... 0. 11.5 5. expressed in minutes of traffic per person.6 8.7 1. .0 1. The definition of emigrant varies across countries but generally refers to residents that left the country with the intention to remain abroad for more than a year.. ..1 11. .7 1. 1. –6.5 2.1 2. . .

8 33.8 1..091.1 24.8 56.7 14.3 162. 19. 2.5 . .0 .7 c 97.1 .0 .3 .9 74.8 1..5 168.4 8.6 129.2 86.. 1.3 4.3 752. 1.8 7..8 37.5 86.5 0.0 65.2 22.017...9 185.0 21.7 c 99.946. .1 185.4 9.7 c 99.9 33.9 63.9 81.849.4 0..6 177..9 52.6 . 212.3 0.7 c 99.0 2.1 77. 1.7 c 99.8 16.7 240. 26.647.759. .4 149. .9 177..1 .6 13.780.9 434.7 c 99.8 65.189..7 c 99.8 90.0 27..5 99.5 19.8 1.1 81.3 9.2 54.2 99.0 .7 .2 1.6 418.8 179.1 12.4 .7 71.8 2.3 19..2 27.9 53.9 34.390.7 c 99.4 894.7 23.4 73.0 46.6 24.1 3.0 556.794.3 .2 37.1 84.437.8 758.6 14.2 18.0 69.3 .7 15.7 4.7 c 99.1 92.005.8 42.7 99.7 2.9 .9 5.571. 99.6 24..7 68.8 .7 c 99.5 155.1 . 16.6 166.3 2.678.0 32.8 2..7 c 99... 3.7 c 99.3 1. .6 88.3 65. ..2 6.7 9.168.0 13.5 5.6 0.2 25.7 24.4 2.689.0 25.0 .5 23. 0.9 152.8 12.4 86. 89..601..3 18. 28.2 2.6 .2 995. China (SAR) 13 Iceland 15 Denmark 16 Israel 17 Belgium 18 Austria 18 Singapore 20 France 21 Finland 21 Slovenia 23 Spain 24 Liechtenstein 25 Italy 26 Luxembourg 26 United Kingdom 28 Czech Republic 29 Greece 30 Brunei Darussalam 31 Cyprus 32 Malta 33 Andorra 33 Estonia 35 Slovakia 36 Qatar 37 Hungary 38 Barbados 39 Poland 40 Chile 41 Lithuania 41 United Arab Emirates 43 Portugal 44 Latvia 45 Argentina 46 Seychelles 47 Croatia High human development 48 Bahrain 49 Bahamas 50 Belarus 51 Uruguay 52 Montenegro 52 Palau 54 Kuwait 55 Russian Federation 56 Romania 57 Bulgaria 57 Saudi Arabia 1. 100.6 38.1 31..2 60.6 20.2 1.5 160.334.7 707. .9 32.3 5.7 c 99.0 53. 0.1 131.3 14.1 1.7 c 98.5 13.. .7 1.9 164.2 172.7 93. 99.6 3.0 62.5 .4 9.0 55...0 63.4 .7 c 99.5 57.2 19. Republic of 13 Hong Kong.12 Table Innovation and technology RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT Graduates in science and engineeringa (% of total) 2002–2011b INNOVATION Patents granted to residents and nonresidents Royalty and licence fees receipts Electrification rate Personal computers TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION Fixed broadband Internet Internet users subscriptions (per 100 people) 2002–2009b 2010 2010 2010 Fixed and mobile telephone subscribers Expenditure (% of GDP) HDI rank 2005–2010b Researchers (per million people) 2002–2010b (per million people) ($ per capita) (% of population) 2005–2010b 2005–2011b 2009 Very high human development 1 Norway 2 Australia 3 United States 4 Netherlands 5 Germany 6 New Zealand 7 Ireland 7 Sweden 9 Switzerland 10 Japan 11 Canada 12 Korea.1 13.0 136.0 1..6 50.9 .1 96.3 80.5 34.7 74.6 25.8 95.2 3.6 7.2 88.2 .9 203. 2.6 14.6 152.7 c 99. 2.9 168.9 25.5 45.9 26.0 49.503.7 134..1 123.7 0.7 1.1 184.6 21.0 35.2 9.9 69.9 143.7 c 99.1 37. 0.1 15.7 29.7 c 99.3 19.4 147.0 41.3 232.8 2.5 354.. 151.323.0 653.4 20.7 21.2 142.5 21.0 21.7 c 99.0 28.1 .8 2..7 c 99.0 62.8 35.8 3.1 0.8 .428.1 31.586.8 5.9 105.5 0.5 286.9 34.6 7.2 107..6 0.7 2.5 71.0 181.2 79. .6 ..2 159.1 .2 19.8 20. 1. 26.. 1.1 81.2 27.. 98..9 3.7 c 99.5 199.. 0.0 3.9 562.3 139.1 50.8 . 13. 38. 5... 346. .0 186 | Human Development Report 2013 .9 2.6 69.5 42.8 78.0 3.1 96.1 1.6 91.6 13.5 59.0 4. 6.9 1.1 6. 137.4 0.2 77.319.1 5.7 c 99.5 5.1 4.8 1.5 21.7 172.4 149.5 20.7 c 99..4 3..0 10.4 10.7 c 99.8 1.5 7..7 c 99. .5 0.1 184.7 18.2 32.5 160.5 39.3 .7 72.5 574.7 c 99.5 0..7 c 99.3 71.4 135. 226..754.6 .8 3..5 186.0 51.258..8 .7 4.7 60.7 c 98.6 3.0 226. 36.7 82.7 3.7 1..7 30.3 75.0 43. 24.0 158.6 25.8 151..1 21. 6.9 24.428.0 82..6 20.1 320.4 .5 4.5 .0 15.7 1. 1..1 31.5 58.0 3.6 184.3 129..1 .6 58.9 60.7 c 99..210.4 90.541.3 157.0 74.1 55..5 14.759..3 28.2 90.3 24.9 183.5 19.2 122. ..5 19.0 62.490.0 12..5 68.5 0.7 c .7 99.2 162.7 c 100.307..5 36.1 165.931.0 126.7 c 99..9 13.0 40.1 16.7 c 99.6 117..7 157.2 1.8 166.3 43.3 33.045.6 20.5 0.6 5.0 4.8 35.7 c 99.3 80.7 c 99.7 25.2 65.3 .1 101.824. 3.2 31.3 52..2 27.6 28.5 154..5 7.6 65.8 2.3 .3 10.7 0.4 21. .7 151.7 0. .6 873.7 c 99.3 .6 367.8 1.8 21. 16. 26...8 890.4 40. . . 4.3 197.8 114.7 c 99.7 4.7 23.8 24.3 256.5 .7 126.8 60.6 81.7 387. 102. 127.1 .1 30.372.9 21.2 11..6 . . 78.7 .4 171. 15.2 30.690.597.6 3.1 31..2 2.7 c 99.. 18.1 5.7 15.7 2.3 2.7 .0 18..7 54.1 .3 82.5 149.7 148.3 18..7 c 99.. .8 80.7 67.5 83.0 99.9 0.7 94.6 10.0 28.2 619.0 53.1 47. 25.8 334. 59.9 8.834.2 29.817.5 32.7 139.8 211.7 4.3 1.9 14.7 11..4 120.0 .1 8.8 14.1 172..7 8.6 . 303..0 42.0 155.7 c 100.4 17.0 28.6 3.1 20.6 .4 0.5 4.2 17.0 99.7 20.2 171.1 81.3 63.2 70.8 1. 13.4 18.4 7.673.4 .9 29.2 169.6 52.8 174.8 .6 44.9 24.2 17.2 40.0 159.7 90.1 .3 2.9 21. 99.9 502.9 14.7 154.122.2 .3 0.6 .

.6 125.198.. ..1 2.6 32.1 25. .1 0.7 7.. .1 7.9 12.0 7..2 .8 2.353.4 19.9 23.6 11..8 135.3 74. 0.9 157.9 .9 3..4 77. 0. .4 .9 23. .5 190.7 3.1 96.0 56.3 0.4 . 3.8 21. Federated States of 0. 0. .4 85.4 .2 135.9 .5 .6 .4 794.7 67..4 26. 59.1 78.1 80.5 . ..8 77..8 182.1 .4 1.4 9..8 36.2 117..9 20.2 25. .2 13.. 25.6 2..5 17. .7 .6 1.0 13..0 15.4 .3 6.0 2... 1..9 3.1 .9 5.6 .1 .7 232...5 67.4 45.2 3.3 178.0 140..4 . . Islamic Republic of 77 Peru 78 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 78 Ukraine 80 Mauritius 81 Bosnia and Herzegovina 82 Azerbaijan 83 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 84 Oman 85 Brazil 85 Jamaica 87 Armenia 88 Saint Lucia 89 Ecuador 90 Turkey 91 Colombia 92 Sri Lanka 93 Algeria 94 Tunisia Medium human development 95 Tonga 96 Belize 96 Dominican Republic 96 Fiji 96 Samoa 100 Jordan 101 China 102 Turkmenistan 103 Thailand 104 Maldives 105 Suriname 106 Gabon 107 El Salvador 108 Bolivia.4 0.4 2.7 117.6 12. 111...2 .0 6..0 2.3 99. .1 3..0 65.8 24.. ..9 .8 9.. .7 10.4 2.3 43. .3 22. .. ..5 33.6 0.. 8.3 ..6 39.1 140.0 46.... ..0 39. 99.5 0.1 12.6 82.1 9. 2.0 2.0 10.2 21.7 113. . 0. ..9 3.3 .9 . 44.6 .3 104.0 4.6 20. .5 15..5 14.1 .8 4. 97..5 7.6 1.7 27.2 9.....0 40.2 .2 25.8 .6 1..6 14.2 .2 15.7 99.3 99. .9 99.3 110.. 99.6 107.9 47.7 16..4 1.0 4.5 10.3 92.8 3.. 146. 0. .2 .2 89.9 40.0 191.. ..1 .0 0...0 12. 0.0 114...4 0. .3 . .7 52.6 2. 95. . ..2 15....4 11. 364..5 92.8 5.7 26..6 0.7 . ...7 0. 1.9 14.8 1.3 22.7 .. . 6.1 203..5 80.2 1.6 1.3 2.6 28.0 76.6 6.3 178. 26.. .0 88..7 15.6 145.1 .4 5.7 5.3 1.1 0.4 Table 12  Innovation and technology | 187 .3 31.4 20. 5.6 4.7 152.3 19.4 8.2 .4 0.4 98. .6 20..3 5.3 0.7 ..3 100.9 0.. .. 60.0 .0 36.. 24.3 121. 144. 99.2 .8 10.7 5.3 51.3 2.0 . 63.862.9 .3 11... 1..2 6.5 111.2 0.7 ..7 85.8 8.2 6..1 4..6 6. . 0. . 0.8 0.0 121.... ..6 99.7 40.1 .6 10.0 35.4 .3 . 34. ..8 4.0 .7 2.5 . Plurinational State of 108 Mongolia 110 Palestine. 0. .4 100.6 13.5 44.8 1. .9 34...5 .. .. 4..4 45.8 123.2 26. .5 12...0 34. 99.9 36.7 86.6 6.2 18.0 12.8 1. .6 . 98..4 5. . 471. 99.0 19.9 144..8 7... . 0.0 22.0 16. .7 0. 0. ..8 175..2 0... 11.9 9.1 6.8 99. 0..6 5.8 5... 30..3 .3 . 0.6 . . .3 0.5 1....9 .9 44.5 6.060.4 .7 10.7 .0 1..2 200...5 144.1 8..9 9. .0 4... 12.4 25...9 42. Bolivarian Republic of 72 Dominica 72 Georgia 72 Lebanon 72 Saint Kitts and Nevis 76 Iran.9 127..2 5.8 .. 76. 36. 0. . 89.3 347. .1 .4 ... 93.2 .1 1.0 12.8 11..9 108. 0. 17.4 .5 33. 120.. .6 4.7 127...2 0.3 7.8 420..3 .7 .7 . 9.6 7.3 31..6 171..6 100.6 1.9 0.2 . 750..0 1.. 16.2 163.. 16.. . 38... .5 86. .8 .0 12.3 .1 36..1 2.. Republic of 114 Philippines 114 Uzbekistan 116 Syrian Arab Republic 117 Micronesia.1 803. 99. .. 0.. .6 163.7 109..4 13.9 . ..9 19.0 .1 99.. 99.. 21. .7 20..8 20..7 17.7 .0 98.7 1. 28... 98.6 .2 0.8 0.8 98..8 7. .1 11. 0.2 1.1 1.3 170.6 1.9 80.5 36.5 6.4 1..0 0. 99. .0 0.1 .1 .. .0 0. 4.. . 12.9 12.8 .1 .5 1. .7 43.4 107..2 8. 97.6 185.7 .6 13.. 0.5 ..2 .4 .. 15. .3 18.2 46.. ..1 .5 4.2 3...1 2... 23. 0... 3..7 3.0 3.3 13.1 9. 7.5 7.0 .3 117.6 76.2 111. 92.1 16.2 6.5 0.6 48.. .3 . .7 .0 0.6 1.0 11.2 109. ..0 .2 36.1 29.4 10..0 124.0 . 37.4 0.9 0.Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT Graduates in science and engineeringa (% of total) 2002–2011b INNOVATION Patents granted to residents and nonresidents Royalty and licence fees receipts Electrification rate Personal computers TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION Fixed broadband Internet Internet users subscriptions (per 100 people) 2002–2009b 2010 2010 2010 Fixed and mobile telephone subscribers Expenditure (% of GDP) HDI rank 2005–2010b Researchers (per million people) 2002–2010b (per million people) ($ per capita) (% of population) 2005–2010b 2005–2011b 2009 59 Cuba 59 Panama 61 Mexico 62 Costa Rica 63 Grenada 64 Libya 64 Malaysia 64 Serbia 67 Antigua and Barbuda 67 Trinidad and Tobago 69 Kazakhstan 70 Albania 71 Venezuela. 0.1 . . 197.8 4.3 26.4 .8 26.2 28.2 96. 0. 0.5 6..0 40. .7 31.0 .9 . . 62.3 257.5 82. 695.7 23..1 143. ..8 7...0 38.2 0. . .8 96.. . 315.. State of 111 Paraguay 112 Egypt 113 Moldova.1 .8 7.5 0.5 .9 116. 92.3 . . ..2 73. 106. 96. .6 9.

8 79.2 0. 0.8 20. . 395.5 6.0 64.8 ..3 . . .1 4.0 . 0. 2.3 2. .8 59...0 2.8 69.8 10.8 . .. .0 0.0 0.2 10.6 25.9 ...7 . ..2 ..0 86. 0. 29.5 41.1 0. 29.. 0. 1. .4 70.0 0. 115.. 0..0 .7 0. .6 59. .3 0. 0.5 10.0 105...0 0.0 0.. .9 1.4 0. 0.2 7.9 . .. . 17. .5 1.2 0. . . .. 25.. 9. 2.0 7.9 1.8 7.3 0.. 62.6 46.4 .2 55.3 9..2 121.0 0.5 .0 .0 3.. . 161.7 .4 ..2 . 0.6 0. . .0 12.9 1.9 107..2 9. 11. .2 39.9 41.5 3..3 .9 73..8 ...0 ..4 0.2 66. 75.. 0..3 1. 7.1 . 4. 0. .7 .0 .1 48. . . .2 ..5 39.0 6.0 . 16...5 34.. 93.3 .. .4 29.2 1.4 0. ... 14.3 .0 0.1 0. . 34.. .7 .5 0.1 2. . 0..0 .0 .5 . .0 73.5 0....0 18.3 7.1 0....1 5.4 12.1 0.9 47..3 0. 97.0 0.4 .3 8.5 22.1 2.. . ..0 19. 12.7 2...3 2. ..5 12.7 88...1 1.6 34..9 89. . 0... 0.4 1.8 91.0 24.1 6.1 .5 4. . .5 ..4 1. 21. .2 .6 1..4 9.8 62. 20.0 0.1 0.0 20...3 60.....2 0. .... ..9 3..9 69.2 . 0.0 11.9 ..0 .4 26. 9. 0. 2.2 0...5 .3 .7 0.9 6.7 19.8 14.1 0.. 1.0 62. 58..7 16..5 39..1 .. . 0.0 . .0 3.1 . 0..5 9. 0. 0.1 .0 49.0 0.9 4.0 0.4 12.3 4. 16.3 38. .....4 . .0 18..4 .6 .2 1.. .8 . 0.8 37. . .9 81..6 133.....5 .0 49.7 21.5 . . .1 ..7 1... .0 0. 47. .0 0. ..9 70..5 136... 23.. .7 23...1 .6 .. 46.8 ... .7 7..7 .. 135. .0 1.0 0.0 0..1 9.1 13...8 .2 0. 45.. .8 22.5 30..6 .6 38.6 1.3 8..0 60.. 37..1 97.1 . 43.2 . ....6 33..0 1..5 0.9 2.6 0.table 12  Innovation and technology RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT Graduates in science and engineeringa (% of total) 2002–2011b INNOVATION Patents granted to residents and nonresidents Royalty and licence fees receipts Electrification rate Personal computers TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION Fixed broadband Internet Internet users subscriptions (per 100 people) 2002–2009b 2010 2010 2010 Fixed and mobile telephone subscribers Expenditure (% of GDP) HDI rank 2005–2010b Researchers (per million people) 2002–2010b (per million people) ($ per capita) (% of population) 2005–2010b 2005–2011b 2009 118 Guyana 119 Botswana 120 Honduras 121 Indonesia 121 Kiribati 121 South Africa 124 Vanuatu 125 Kyrgyzstan 125 Tajikistan 127 Viet Nam 128 Namibia 129 Nicaragua 130 Morocco 131 Iraq 132 Cape Verde 133 Guatemala 134 Timor-Leste 135 Ghana 136 Equatorial Guinea 136 India 138 Cambodia 138 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 140 Bhutan 141 Swaziland Low human development 142 Congo 143 Solomon Islands 144 Sao Tome and Principe 145 Kenya 146 Bangladesh 146 Pakistan 148 Angola 149 Myanmar 150 Cameroon 151 Madagascar 152 Tanzania..1 0. 38.6 16..6 0.3 81.0 48..0 0. 89.5 2.4 64.. ...2 0. .5 14. 4. 2. .0 28... 11..1 8.. . . ..4 .1 . .0 53.3 188 | Human Development Report 2013 ..9 50.0 .8 5.2 0.3 0. .2 .3 0...9 5.. .1 .0 39.7 0.3 9...0 13...2 3.1 .3 . . .2 50.2 3..2 .7 3. .3 .6 5. 0.4 0..0 . 46..5 .. . 56.4 ..2 0. 18. 0.3 44. .7 1.3 .0 .8 0. ..1 0.6 42.....3 .0 5.0 10.0 . .4 0...4 13. .6 111..5 0.. .4 .0 .0 0.0 .0 .6 9.2 26.8 20.4 2.2 .5 0. 0. . .0 0.1 0..0 0. ....4 40. 43. .0 1.6 94.2 13..2 43.2 .5 0.0 .. .1 109.8 0. 10. 24.. 0..2 3...4 .2 1..8 .9 .9 .. .1 4.. .. .4 6...3 0..7 1.5 132...3 0. 1.5 33.8 17. ... .9 3...7 11.6 0.3 0.2 4. 0. . .6 11.9 0.1 .. . .8 .. 0. ..4 1.0 1.8 25...2 57. 75. 0..7 196. 80. .. 20.0 .4 2.0 0..2 0.4 39.0 3. . . .9 6.. 12. .0 5..2 21.0 ..1 0.8 77.1 . 5.. . 15.6 .8 1.9 29.. .1 0.5 0.6 .9 ... .5 46...0 72. 3.. 0..9 0.0 0.. .5 . .5 17. United Republic of 153 Nigeria 154 Senegal 155 Mauritania 156 Papua New Guinea 157 Nepal 158 Lesotho 159 Togo 160 Yemen 161 Haiti 161 Uganda 163 Zambia 164 Djibouti 165 Gambia 166 Benin 167 Rwanda 168 Côte d’Ivoire 169 Comoros 170 Malawi 171 Sudan 172 Zimbabwe 173 Ethiopia 174 Liberia 175 Afghanistan 176 Guinea-Bissau 177 Sierra Leone . 16..3 64.5 0. .4 .0 1..3 21..2 0. 0.5 10.4 0. 0. 661.8 0. .6 0.. 15. 11..6 384.9 9..5 9.9 0.4 124.1 66..0 0. 0. . .3 7.0 55.1 41. . 0. .4 16..0 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 27.5 38..4 42.4 15.. .0 13.4 0. 0..0 2.3 .8 . .5 47. .2 0. 24.5 0.0 35. 4. 0.2 . 1....6 6. .. 106.0 18. 0.8 0.7 72.4 0..

.1 . 7. .7 1.5 84. . Internet users: People with access to the worldwide network.. 566. . .9 8.. .. 99.2 133. Graduates in science and engineering: People who have successfully completed the final year of a level or sublevel of education in science and engineering.. .1 8.0 . . .5 42... through licensing agreements. .8 10. 210.0 .7 99.1 2.. . .. Patents granted to residents and nonresidents: Number of exclusive rights granted for an invention. . 0.. .0 116.2 63. . nonfinancial assets and proprietary rights (such as patents. .4 0. 308.6 49. .4 11. Columns 8 and 9: ITU (2012). .2 .0 0..8 5. methods or systems and in the management of the projects ..9 ..6 0.. . .. 11..2 0. .7 5.5 0. .. ... .1 . 23. industrial processes and franchises) and for the use. Column 10: HDRO calculations based on data on cellular subscribers and telephone lines from ITU (2012) and population data from UNDESA (2011).6 12. .7 . 8.0 .3 31.6 . . . .. ..8 20. 12.4 70. .1 40. expressed as a percentage of total population. expressed per 100 people. .5 0.1 2. . 258. .2 0. . Postgraduate doctoral students (ISCED97 level 6) engaged in research and development are included...2 7. . .0 . .. 78.. .0 0.. 93..8 .0 . 37.2 150.3 5.8 . ..1 6.1 0.6 1. 23...0 0. Table 12  Innovation and technology | 189 ... 26.. . 32.7 95. . 0.. 0. ......4 47.3 18.0 6. at speeds equal to or greater than 256 kilobits per second... . 0. 41. .7 64. .0 0....1 .2 . products. .. Democratic Republic of the 186 Niger Other countries or territories Korea. ...... 93..0 0.6 14. Personal computers: Number of self-contained computers designed for use by a single individual. . . .4 . . . 1.....7 27. expressed per 100 people.. It includes electricity sold commercially (both on-grid and off-grid) and self-generated electricity but not unauthorized connections. . which is a product or a process that provides a new way of doing something or offers a new technical solution to a problem..8 ... .... expressed per 100 people.. Royalty and licence fee receipts: Payments and receipts between residents and nonresidents for the authorized use of intangible..2 . copyrights.6 .7 4.. It covers basic research.. 1..1 1.. in one or both directions.1 . MAIN DATA SOURCES Columns 1 and 2: World Bank (2012a)... .0 . . .1 ..1 34.. 25.. .0 .0 0.6 1. 3.3 4...0 0... . ..4 0.....8 35..9 32.2 35. .. expressed per 100 people Fixed and mobile telephone subscribers: Sum of telephone lines and mobile subscribers. ...0 ... Column 6: IEA (2012).... 14..7 58.1 .7 11..6 0.6 15. .5 62. of produced originals of prototypes (such as films and manuscripts). . 0.7 14. .0 ...0 . . .. 7. 20.. .. .7 0.5 24.. . .2 10.7 30. . 0.3 13... .8 . Researchers in research and development: Professionals engaged in the conception or creation of new knowledge. . .. .. trademarks. .. applied research and experimental development. 99.0 .0 25. expressed per 1 million people. . processes.4 2..3 1. b Data refer to the most recent year available during the period specified.4 1. . .4 . Column 4: HDRO calculation based on data from WIPO (2012) and population data from UNDESA (2011).4 34.3 .. .0 .7 0...8 .. Column 7: World Bank (2012c).2 1.1 2. ..6 . ..9 ... Column 3: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2012).9 . nonproduced.2 ...2 0.3 . . 15..... . .9 0..0 72. .. 86... Electrification rate: Number of people with access to electricity.. Democratic People’s Rep..8 . 9.6 .1 4. . . . 2..0 2.8 43... .4 4.. 0.. . ..5 . .0 0.. 7. . . .. . . 8... 9..9 0. .3 26.... .. .0 0.5 10. . c In the absence of data on electrification rate. ....8 18.. .5 7.. DEFINITIONS Research and development expenditure: Current and capital expenditures (both public and private) on creative work undertaken systematically to increase knowledge and the use of knowledge for new applications. 141. 0.0 7. . . .948. Fixed broadband Internet subscriptions: Broadband high-speed access to the public Internet (a TCP/IP connection).6 4.0 0.9 153.. of Marshall Islands Monaco Nauru San Marino Somalia South Sudan Tuvalu Human Development Index groups Very high human development High human development Medium human development Low human development Regions Arab States East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Least developed countries Small island developing states World NOTES a Includes graduates in manufacturing and construction. Column 5: HDRO calculations based on data on royalty and licence fee receipts from World Bank (2012b).7 45. 3.. ..2 29.1 0.854.. . . ....2 .2 concerned. 0.3 12.Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT Graduates in science and engineeringa (% of total) 2002–2011b INNOVATION Patents granted to residents and nonresidents Royalty and licence fees receipts Electrification rate Personal computers TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION Fixed broadband Internet Internet users subscriptions (per 100 people) 2002–2009b 2010 2010 2010 Fixed and mobile telephone subscribers Expenditure (% of GDP) HDI rank 2005–2010b Researchers (per million people) 2002–2010b (per million people) ($ per capita) (% of population) 2005–2010b 2005–2011b 2009 178 Burundi 178 Guinea 180 Central African Republic 181 Eritrea 182 Mali 183 Burkina Faso 184 Chad 185 Mozambique 186 Congo. 1..0 . 3.2 0.6 92..9 . .0 1. .2 3. . 144.3 22..0 .... ..7% is assumed...7 0.

13

Table

Environment
PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY EMISSIONS Carbon dioxide Total Per capita Greenhouse gas Natural resource Per capita depletion (tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) 2005 NATURAL RESOURCES IMPACTS

Fossil fuels Renewables

Forest area

Number of Population deaths due living on Fresh water Endangered Agricultural to natural degraded disasters land withdrawals species land (% of total renewable water resources) 2003–2012a (annual average per million people) 2005/2011

(% of total) HDI rank 2009 2009

(average annual % (megatonnes) (tonnes) growth) 2008 2008 1970/2008

(% of (% of GNI) land area) (% change) 2010 2010 1990/2010

(% of all species) 2011

(% of land area) 2009

(%) 2010

Very high human development 1 Norway 2 Australia 3 United States 4 Netherlands 5 Germany 6 New Zealand 7 Ireland 7 Sweden 9 Switzerland 10 Japan 11 Canada 12 Korea, Republic of 13 Hong Kong, China (SAR) 13 Iceland 15 Denmark 16 Israel 17 Belgium 18 Austria 18 Singapore 20 France 21 Finland 21 Slovenia 23 Spain 24 Liechtenstein 25 Italy 26 Luxembourg 26 United Kingdom 28 Czech Republic 29 Greece 30 Brunei Darussalam 31 Cyprus 32 Malta 33 Andorra 33 Estonia 35 Slovakia 36 Qatar 37 Hungary 38 Barbados 39 Poland 40 Chile 41 Lithuania 41 United Arab Emirates 43 Portugal 44 Latvia 45 Argentina 46 Seychelles 47 Croatia High human development 48 Bahrain 49 Bahamas 50 Belarus 51 Uruguay 52 Montenegro 52 Palau 54 Kuwait 55 Russian Federation 56 Romania 57 Bulgaria

58.8 94.4 84.1 93.1 79.5 63.7 95.0 32.7 53.3 81.0 74.9 .. 95.1 15.7 80.4 96.5 73.6 70.2 99.8 51.0 54.0 69.3 79.9 .. 87.5 88.8 87.3 79.6 92.4 100.0 95.7 99.9 .. 84.8 69.5 100.0 74.2 .. 92.8 74.5 55.8 100.0 78.0 59.5 89.4 .. 83.4 99.9 .. 92.5 60.3 .. .. 100.0 90.2 76.3 73.1

43.3 5.6 5.4 4.0 8.7 36.1 4.5 34.8 17.7 3.3 16.9 .. 0.4 84.2 17.4 5.0 3.9 27.8 0.1 7.7 23.8 12.7 9.6 .. 9.7 3.1 3.2 5.8 6.4 0.0 3.9 0.1 .. 15.1 7.3 0.0 7.4 .. 6.7 25.1 10.4 0.0 19.7 37.1 7.0 .. 10.9 0.0 .. 5.0 37.1 .. .. 0.0 2.8 15.3 6.2

50 399 5,461 174 787 33 44 49 40 1,208 544 509 39 2 46 38 105 68 32 377 57 17 329 .. 445 11 523 117 98 11 9 3 1 18 38 68 55 1 316 73 15 155 56 8 192 1 23 22 2 63 8 2 0 77 1,709 95 51

10.5 18.6 18.0 10.6 9.6 7.8 9.9 5.3 5.3 9.5 16.3 10.5 5.5 7.0 8.4 5.2 9.8 8.1 6.7 5.9 10.6 8.5 7.2 .. 7.4 21.5 8.5 11.2 8.7 27.5 7.9 6.2 6.5 13.6 6.9 49.1 5.4 5.0 8.3 4.4 4.5 25.0 5.3 3.3 4.8 7.8 5.3 21.4 6.5 6.5 2.5 3.1 10.5 30.1 12.0 4.4 6.6

1.0 1.2 –0.4 –0.1 .. 1.1 1.1 –2.0 –0.6 0.7 0.1 4.9 2.6 0.1 –1.1 –0.2 –0.7 0.5 –0.7 –1.0 0.5 .. 2.0 .. 0.8 –1.7 –0.8 .. 3.1 –2.3 2.8 2.8 .. .. .. –0.9 –0.6 2.7 –0.3 1.4 .. –2.5 2.9 .. 0.9 7.3 .. 1.5 –2.2 .. 0.5 .. –0.3 –0.3 .. –0.8 –0.2

5.8 9.6 3.7 2.4 1.9 10.0 5.8 2.1 1.2 1.0 4.7 1.2 0.5 3.3 2.9 1.1 1.8 1.9 1.4 2.3 3.4 2.6 1.7 .. 1.4 3.5 1.8 2.1 1.4 17.9 1.3 0.9 .. 2.3 1.4 18.0 1.6 .. 2.7 1.6 2.5 6.2 1.8 2.3 3.9 .. 1.5 4.3 .. 2.4 8.1 .. .. 6.3 4.9 1.7 2.0

10.2 6.5 0.9 0.8 0.1 .. 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 .. 0.1 0.0 1.3 0.5 0.3 .. 0.0 .. .. 1.6 0.4 .. 0.5 .. 1.4 12.4 0.6 .. 0.1 0.5 4.9 0.0 0.9 .. .. 1.0 0.6 .. .. .. 14.3 1.6 2.0

33.1 19.4 33.2 10.8 31.8 30.9 10.7 68.7 31.0 68.5 34.1 63.0 .. 0.3 12.8 7.1 22.4 47.1 3.3 29.0 72.9 62.2 36.4 43.1 31.1 33.5 11.9 34.4 30.3 72.1 18.7 1.1 35.6 52.3 40.2 0.0 22.6 19.4 30.5 21.7 34.5 3.8 38.1 53.8 10.7 88.5 34.3 0.7 51.5 41.6 10.0 40.4 87.6 0.4 49.4 28.6 36.1

10.2 –3.4 2.6 5.8 3.1 7.1 58.9 3.4 7.7 0.1 0.0 –2.3 .. 243.7 22.3 16.7 0.1 2.9 0.0 9.8 1.2 5.5 31.5 6.2 20.5 1.1 10.3 1.1 18.3 –8.0 7.5 0.0 0.0 6.1 0.6 0.0 12.7 0.0 5.1 6.3 11.1 29.5 3.9 5.7 –15.5 0.0 3.8 143.5 0.0 10.9 89.6 0.0 5.6 81.2 0.0 3.2 18.0

0.8 4.6 15.6 11.7 21.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 4.9 20.9 1.6 36.5 .. 0.1 10.8 101.9 34.0 4.7 31.7 15.0 1.5 3.0 29.0 .. 23.7 1.9 8.8 14.8 12.7 1.1 19.3 71.3 .. 14.0 1.4 455.2 5.4 76.1 19.4 1.2 9.6 2,032.0 12.3 1.2 4.0 .. 0.6 219.8 .. 7.5 2.6 .. .. 2,465.0 1.5 3.2 28.7

6.9 18.5 19.9 5.4 10.5 20.4 7.3 4.9 6.6 13.7 7.2 9.5 8.3 8.4 6.3 11.2 5.5 11.6 13.7 12.8 4.4 11.8 17.7 1.1 13.5 2.8 10.1 5.0 16.3 8.4 7.7 6.8 3.7 3.5 5.2 7.3 8.0 8.7 5.7 9.9 4.1 7.7 17.0 4.6 9.0 16.1 14.3 7.2 10.0 4.2 10.8 10.5 11.4 7.4 10.2 9.4 9.3

3.3 53.2 44.1 56.8 48.4 43.6 60.8 7.5 38.1 12.6 7.4 19.1 .. 22.8 62.1 24.1 45.0 38.4 1.0 53.4 7.6 23.2 55.5 40.6 47.3 50.6 71.6 54.9 63.6 2.2 13.5 29.1 38.3 22.0 40.1 5.6 63.9 44.2 53.0 21.2 42.9 6.8 40.3 29.5 51.3 6.5 23.2 10.3 1.4 44.0 84.6 38.2 10.9 8.5 13.2 58.8 46.3

0 3 1 12 12 0 0 0 14 1 0 1 0 .. 0 1 20 4 .. 33 0 15 33 .. 33 33 1 5 1 .. 0 .. .. 0 2 .. 7 0 3 1 1 .. 26 4 0 0 18 .. 3 0 1 0 .. .. 40 3 1

.. 9.0 1.0 5.0 8.0 5.0 .. .. .. .. 3.0 3.0 .. .. 9.0 13.0 10.0 3.0 .. 4.0 .. 8.0 1.0 .. 2.0 .. 3.0 4.0 1.0 .. 11.0 .. .. 5.0 9.0 .. 17.0 .. 13.0 1.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 .. 18.0 .. .. 5.0 6.0 8.0 .. 1.0 3.0 13.0 8.0

190

| Human Development Report 2013

Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World

PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY

EMISSIONS Carbon dioxide Total Per capita Greenhouse gas Natural resource Per capita depletion (tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) 2005

NATURAL RESOURCES

IMPACTS

Fossil fuels Renewables

Forest area

Number of Population deaths due living on Fresh water Endangered Agricultural to natural degraded disasters land withdrawals species land (% of total renewable water resources) 2003–2012a (annual average per million people) 2005/2011

(% of total) HDI rank 2009 2009

(average annual % (megatonnes) (tonnes) growth) 2008 2008 1970/2008

(% of (% of GNI) land area) (% change) 2010 2010 1990/2010

(% of all species) 2011

(% of land area) 2009

(%) 2010

57 Saudi Arabia 59 Cuba 59 Panama 61 Mexico 62 Costa Rica 63 Grenada 64 Libya 64 Malaysia 64 Serbia 67 Antigua and Barbuda 67 Trinidad and Tobago 69 Kazakhstan 70 Albania 71 Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of 72 Dominica 72 Georgia 72 Lebanon 72 Saint Kitts and Nevis 76 Iran, Islamic Republic of 77 Peru 78 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 78 Ukraine 80 Mauritius 81 Bosnia and Herzegovina 82 Azerbaijan 83 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 84 Oman 85 Brazil 85 Jamaica 87 Armenia 88 Saint Lucia 89 Ecuador 90 Turkey 91 Colombia 92 Sri Lanka 93 Algeria 94 Tunisia Medium human development 95 Tonga 96 Belize 96 Dominican Republic 96 Fiji 96 Samoa 100 Jordan 101 China 102 Turkmenistan 103 Thailand 104 Maldives 105 Suriname 106 Gabon 107 El Salvador 108 Bolivia, Plurinational State of 108 Mongolia 110 Palestine, State of 111 Paraguay 112 Egypt 113 Moldova, Republic of 114 Philippines 114 Uzbekistan

100.0 84.1 78.6 88.9 44.7 .. 99.2 94.7 92.4 .. 99.9 99.0 54.0 87.7 .. 68.0 95.9 .. 99.5 73.5 84.3 80.0 .. 92.2 98.2 .. 100.0 51.3 83.7 68.4 .. 86.7 89.9 75.2 45.3 99.8 85.7 .. .. 76.6 .. .. 98.0 87.4 100.7 79.4 .. .. 33.9 37.8 79.1 96.4 .. 28.5 96.3 91.3 57.0 98.4

0.0 15.9 21.5 9.6 55.3 .. 0.8 5.3 8.1 .. 0.1 1.1 38.8 12.4 .. 33.3 2.6 .. 0.5 26.5 11.3 1.6 .. 12.1 1.7 .. 0.0 45.8 16.3 6.7 .. 12.4 10.2 25.1 54.7 0.2 14.2 .. .. 23.4 .. .. 1.8 11.9 0.0 20.5 .. .. 66.1 62.0 20.9 3.2 .. 153.2 3.8 3.1 43.0 1.6

434 31 7 476 8 0 58 208 50 0 50 237 4 170 0 5 17 0 538 41 12 324 4 31 47 0 46 393 12 6 0 27 284 68 12 111 25 0 0 22 1 0 21 7,032 48 286 1 2 2 6 13 11 2 4 210 5 83 125

16.6 2.8 2.0 4.3 1.8 2.4 9.5 7.6 6.8 5.1 37.4 15.1 1.3 6.1 1.9 1.2 4.1 4.9 7.4 1.4 5.8 7.0 3.1 8.3 5.4 1.8 17.3 2.1 4.5 1.8 2.3 1.9 4.0 1.5 0.6 3.2 2.4 1.7 1.3 2.2 1.5 0.9 3.7 5.3 9.7 4.2 3.0 4.7 1.7 1.0 1.3 4.1 0.5 0.7 2.7 1.3 0.9 4.6

2.0 0.7 0.9 1.8 2.5 4.4 –1.4 4.7 .. –0.8 3.7 .. –0.8 –0.4 4.4 .. 2.5 .. 2.2 0.1 .. .. 4.4 .. .. 4.7 11.1 2.0 1.4 .. 3.4 2.6 3.2 0.3 1.8 2.9 3.2 4.6 0.7 3.1 1.0 3.9 3.4 4.7 .. 6.3 .. 0.2 –2.2 2.6 2.2 1.6 .. 2.1 4.0 .. 0.7 ..

2.5 1.4 1.4 1.7 0.9 .. 2.7 2.4 2.3 .. 7.8 4.3 1.1 3.0 .. 1.4 0.4 .. 2.1 0.9 1.0 2.1 .. 1.2 4.7 .. 7.1 4.0 0.7 1.3 .. 1.7 1.4 1.8 0.6 1.8 1.0 .. .. 0.9 .. .. 0.5 1.5 6.7 1.6 .. .. 6.4 0.8 4.9 3.7 .. 4.1 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.9

.. .. 0.0 5.7 0.1 .. .. 6.9 .. .. 32.0 23.4 2.5 12.4 0.0 0.6 0.0 .. .. 8.1 5.9 3.7 0.0 .. 34.5 0.0 .. 3.4 0.6 1.0 .. 12.9 0.4 7.8 0.3 18.1 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 5.1 .. 2.4 0.0 .. 33.1 0.4 12.3 32.3 .. 0.0 7.1 0.2 2.1 19.2

0.5 26.1 43.7 33.3 51.0 50.0 0.1 62.3 31.0 22.3 44.1 1.2 28.3 52.5 59.5 39.5 13.4 42.3 6.8 53.1 39.2 16.8 17.3 42.7 11.3 68.5 0.0 62.4 31.1 9.3 77.0 35.6 14.7 54.5 28.8 0.6 6.5 12.5 61.1 40.8 55.5 60.4 1.1 21.9 8.8 37.1 3.0 94.6 85.4 13.9 52.7 7.0 1.5 44.3 0.1 11.7 25.7 7.7

0.0 39.5 –14.3 –7.8 1.6 0.0 0.0 –8.6 17.3 –4.9 –5.9 –3.3 –1.6 –11.1 –10.7 –1.3 4.5 0.0 0.0 –3.1 9.4 4.7 –9.8 –1.1 0.0 5.5 0.0 –9.6 –2.2 –24.5 7.3 –28.6 17.1 –3.2 –20.9 –10.5 56.5 0.0 –12.2 0.0 6.4 31.5 0.0 31.6 0.0 –3.0 0.0 –0.1 0.0 –23.9 –8.9 –13.1 1.0 –16.9 59.1 21.0 16.7 7.6

943.3 19.8 0.3 17.5 2.4 .. 718.0 2.3 .. 3.3 6.0 28.9 4.4 0.7 .. 2.6 28.1 .. 67.7 1.0 16.1 27.6 26.4 0.9 35.2 .. 86.6 0.7 6.2 36.4 .. 3.6 18.8 0.6 24.5 52.7 61.7 .. 0.8 16.6 0.3 .. 99.4 19.5 100.8 13.1 15.7 0.5 0.1 5.5 0.3 1.4 49.9 0.1 119.0 16.4 17.0 118.3

8.8 18.1 7.2 17.3 8.0 10.5 8.7 15.4 7.2 8.3 6.8 8.4 12.7 8.3 8.6 9.3 10.0 8.6 8.8 8.4 13.3 8.2 15.2 9.8 8.2 9.0 8.5 10.0 15.2 7.9 9.4 12.7 15.3 11.5 17.8 12.2 11.2 8.5 6.4 16.1 13.1 10.8 9.1 12.1 8.4 12.5 9.1 3.5 5.9 3.8 4.7 6.4 6.2 3.9 8.9 6.7 16.8 7.9

80.7 62.5 30.0 52.9 35.3 36.8 8.8 24.0 57.8 29.5 10.5 77.2 44.0 24.3 32.7 36.1 67.3 21.2 29.8 16.8 40.2 71.2 48.3 41.7 57.6 25.6 5.9 31.3 41.5 61.6 18.0 30.3 50.6 38.3 41.6 17.4 63.0 43.1 6.7 51.1 22.9 23.7 11.5 56.2 69.4 38.7 26.7 0.5 19.9 74.5 34.1 74.5 61.0 52.6 3.7 75.2 40.1 62.6

1 0 2 1 2 38 .. 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 15 0 0 .. 1 6 1 2 1 0 0 0 5 1 3 0 6 1 0 4 2 4 0 0 13 9 8 5 0 1 .. 2 0 2 0 7 5 4 0 0 0 1 9 0

4.0 17.0 4.0 4.0 1.0 .. 8.0 1.0 19.0 .. .. 24.0 6.0 2.0 .. 2.0 1.0 .. 25.0 1.0 7.0 6.0 .. 6.0 4.0 .. 6.0 8.0 3.0 10.0 .. 2.0 5.0 2.0 21.0 29.0 37.0 .. 1.0 7.0 .. .. 22.0 9.0 11.0 17.0 .. .. .. 6.0 2.0 31.0 .. 1.0 25.0 22.0 2.0 27.0

Table 13  Environment | 191

table 13 Environment

PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY

EMISSIONS Carbon dioxide Total Per capita Greenhouse gas Natural resource Per capita depletion (tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) 2005

NATURAL RESOURCES

IMPACTS

Fossil fuels Renewables

Forest area

Number of Population deaths due living on Fresh water Endangered Agricultural to natural degraded disasters land withdrawals species land (% of total renewable water resources) 2003–2012a (annual average per million people) 2005/2011

(% of total) HDI rank 2009 2009

(average annual % (megatonnes) (tonnes) growth) 2008 2008 1970/2008

(% of (% of GNI) land area) (% change) 2010 2010 1990/2010

(% of all species) 2011

(% of land area) 2009

(%) 2010

116 Syrian Arab Republic 117 Micronesia, Federated States of 118 Guyana 119 Botswana 120 Honduras 121 Indonesia 121 Kiribati 121 South Africa 124 Vanuatu 125 Kyrgyzstan 125 Tajikistan 127 Viet Nam 128 Namibia 129 Nicaragua 130 Morocco 131 Iraq 132 Cape Verde 133 Guatemala 134 Timor-Leste 135 Ghana 136 Equatorial Guinea 136 India 138 Cambodia 138 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 140 Bhutan 141 Swaziland Low human development 142 Congo 143 Solomon Islands 144 Sao Tome and Principe 145 Kenya 146 Bangladesh 146 Pakistan 148 Angola 149 Myanmar 150 Cameroon 151 Madagascar 152 Tanzania, United Republic of 153 Nigeria 154 Senegal 155 Mauritania 156 Papua New Guinea 157 Nepal 158 Lesotho 159 Togo 160 Yemen 161 Haiti 161 Uganda 163 Zambia 164 Djibouti 165 Gambia 166 Benin 167 Rwanda 168 Côte d’Ivoire 169 Comoros 170 Malawi 171 Sudan 172 Zimbabwe 173 Ethiopia 174 Liberia

99.3 .. .. 64.3 50.3 65.6 .. 87.8 .. 72.5 41.2 56.2 70.5 44.7 92.5 97.6 .. 46.1 .. 24.3 .. 73.0 27.8 .. .. .. 44.2 .. .. 16.8 69.8 61.8 37.6 27.7 30.9 .. 11.1 14.7 57.8 .. .. 11.1 .. 14.4 98.7 28.1 .. 7.6 .. .. 40.4 .. 23.5 .. .. 30.2 25.7 7.1 ..

0.7 .. .. 23.6 49.8 34.4 .. 10.0 .. 28.4 58.6 43.3 19.2 55.3 4.9 0.9 .. 53.9 .. 76.2 .. 26.1 70.8 .. .. .. 53.1 .. .. 83.2 30.2 37.4 62.4 72.3 69.1 .. 88.9 85.3 41.8 .. .. 88.5 .. 83.4 1.3 71.9 .. 92.2 .. .. 57.4 .. 76.9 .. .. 69.8 69.4 92.9 ..

72 0 2 5 9 406 0 436 0 6 3 127 4 4 48 103 0 12 0 9 5 1,743 5 2 1 1 2 0 0 10 47 163 24 13 5 2 6 96 5 2 2 4 .. 1 23 2 4 2 1 0 4 1 7 0 1 14 9 7 1

3.6 0.6 2.0 2.5 1.2 1.7 0.3 8.9 0.4 1.2 0.5 1.5 1.8 0.8 1.5 3.4 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.4 7.3 1.5 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 .. 0.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.2

3.3 .. –0.2 .. 2.2 4.7 –1.0 0.7 –0.4 .. .. 2.2 .. 0.7 3.1 0.9 4.2 1.9 .. 0.5 11.3 3.8 1.8 0.5 12.4 0.7 0.4 1.1 3.7 0.0 .. 2.3 2.1 1.1 3.0 –1.1 0.4 1.4 0.7 1.2 0.3 5.0 .. 1.7 2.5 3.0 –0.6 –4.6 –0.9 2.3 4.3 4.0 –0.5 1.0 –0.4 0.1 –2.0 1.2 –4.6

0.9 .. .. 4.1 1.2 1.5 .. 1.9 .. 1.0 0.9 1.3 4.4 1.7 0.5 0.7 .. 1.1 .. 0.6 .. 0.7 1.9 .. .. .. 2.7 .. .. 0.9 0.7 1.1 5.1 2.2 1.6 .. 1.4 1.1 1.0 .. .. 1.0 .. 0.8 0.5 0.6 .. 3.8 .. .. 0.9 .. 1.0 .. .. 3.0 1.3 1.1 ..

11.9 .. 6.0 3.4 0.5 6.6 .. 6.1 0.0 6.9 0.8 9.4 0.7 1.6 1.6 45.7 0.1 1.7 .. 8.0 49.4 4.4 0.1 8.3 3.6 0.1 59.6 15.6 0.8 1.1 2.3 2.8 35.1 .. 4.8 1.0 3.2 22.0 0.8 34.3 22.2 2.5 1.0 3.4 14.5 .. 4.5 18.9 .. 0.8 0.3 3.1 3.9 1.1 1.8 12.9 2.7 4.2 6.4

2.7 91.7 77.2 20.0 46.4 52.1 15.0 7.6 36.1 5.0 2.9 44.5 8.9 25.7 11.5 1.9 21.1 33.7 49.9 21.7 58.0 23.0 57.2 68.2 69.1 32.7 65.6 79.1 28.1 6.1 11.1 2.2 46.9 48.3 42.1 21.6 37.7 9.9 44.0 0.2 63.4 25.4 1.4 5.3 1.0 3.7 15.2 66.5 0.2 48.0 41.2 17.6 32.7 1.6 34.4 29.4 40.4 11.2 44.9

32.0 0.9 0.0 –17.3 –36.2 –20.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0 0.5 47.4 –16.8 –31.0 1.6 2.6 47.3 –23.0 –23.2 –33.7 –12.6 7.0 –22.0 –9.0 7.1 19.3 –1.4 –4.8 0.0 –6.5 –3.5 –33.2 –4.1 –19.0 –18.1 –8.3 –19.4 –47.5 –9.4 –41.7 –8.9 –24.5 10.0 –58.1 0.0 –12.9 –37.1 –6.3 0.0 8.6 –20.8 36.8 1.8 –75.0 –16.9 –8.4 –29.5 –18.6 –12.2

99.8 .. 0.7 1.6 1.2 5.6 .. 25.0 .. 43.7 74.8 9.3 1.7 0.7 43.4 87.3 6.8 2.6 .. 1.8 0.1 39.8 0.5 1.3 0.4 23.1 0.0 .. 0.3 8.9 2.9 79.5 0.4 2.8 0.3 4.4 5.4 3.6 5.7 14.0 0.0 4.7 1.7 1.2 168.6 8.6 0.5 1.7 6.3 0.9 0.5 1.6 1.7 0.8 5.6 57.6 21.0 4.6 0.1

10.9 13.7 3.8 2.0 8.3 14.3 12.4 14.1 12.0 5.9 6.4 12.1 5.6 4.8 15.2 8.2 12.5 9.3 5.2 5.7 6.4 14.0 12.1 10.5 6.8 2.7 4.4 14.8 14.9 8.4 8.6 8.6 4.6 7.9 10.9 21.0 12.3 6.6 6.9 8.1 11.4 6.1 3.0 4.2 9.3 19.4 7.6 3.3 8.2 4.9 4.5 5.7 6.7 11.7 8.6 4.8 3.3 6.7 8.4

75.7 31.4 8.5 45.6 28.5 29.6 42.0 81.7 15.3 55.4 33.9 33.1 47.1 42.8 67.3 20.1 21.8 41.0 25.2 68.1 10.9 60.5 31.5 10.2 13.2 71.0 30.9 3.0 58.3 48.1 70.3 34.1 46.8 19.0 19.8 70.2 40.1 81.8 49.4 38.5 2.5 29.6 77.0 62.1 44.4 66.8 69.9 31.5 73.4 66.5 29.8 81.1 63.8 83.3 59.1 57.5 42.4 35.0 27.1

1 45 4 0 4 2 0 1 0 2 3 3 7 7 1 0 0 14 1 1 .. 2 1 0 1 0 0 4 .. 2 6 3 2 287 0 5 0 0 0 1 4 6 0 1 2 65 2 1 6 1 1 1 0 0 4 1 0 2 0

33.0 .. .. 22.0 15.0 3.0 .. 17.0 .. 10.0 10.0 8.0 28.0 14.0 39.0 5.0 .. 9.0 .. 1.0 .. 10.0 39.0 4.0 .. .. .. .. .. 31.0 11.0 4.0 3.0 19.0 15.0 .. 25.0 12.0 16.0 24.0 .. 2.0 64.0 5.0 32.0 15.0 23.0 5.0 8.0 18.0 2.0 10.0 1.0 .. 19.0 40.0 29.0 72.0 ..

192

| Human Development Report 2013

Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World

PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY

EMISSIONS Carbon dioxide Total Per capita Greenhouse gas Natural resource Per capita depletion (tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) 2005

NATURAL RESOURCES

IMPACTS

Fossil fuels Renewables

Forest area

Number of Population deaths due living on Fresh water Endangered Agricultural to natural degraded disasters land withdrawals species land (% of total renewable water resources) 2003–2012a (annual average per million people) 2005/2011

(% of total) HDI rank 2009 2009

(average annual % (megatonnes) (tonnes) growth) 2008 2008 1970/2008

(% of (% of GNI) land area) (% change) 2010 2010 1990/2010

(% of all species) 2011

(% of land area) 2009

(%) 2010

175 Afghanistan 176 Guinea-Bissau 177 Sierra Leone 178 Burundi 178 Guinea 180 Central African Republic 181 Eritrea 182 Mali 183 Burkina Faso 184 Chad 185 Mozambique 186 Congo, Democratic Republic of the 186 Niger Other countries or territories Korea, Democratic People’s Rep. of Marshall Islands Monaco Nauru San Marino Somalia South Sudan Tuvalu Human Development Index groups Very high human development High human development Medium human development Low human development Regions Arab States East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Least developed countries Small island developing states World
NOTE a Data refer to the most recent year available during the period specified. DEFINITIONS Fossil fuels: Percentage of total energy supply that comes from natural resources formed from biomass in the geological past (such as coal, oil and natural gas). Renewables: Percentage of total energy supply that comes from constantly replenished natural processes, including solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, hydropower and ocean resources and some waste. Nuclear energy is not included. Carbon dioxide emissions: Human-originated carbon dioxide emissions stemming from the burning of fossil fuels, gas flaring and the production of cement, including carbon dioxide emitted by forest biomass through depletion of forest areas. Carbon dioxide emissions per capita: Carbon dioxide emissions divided by midyear population. Greenhouse gas emissions per capita: Emissions from methane, nitrous oxide and other greenhouse gases, including hydrofluorocarbons,

.. .. .. .. .. .. 22.6 .. .. .. 7.7 3.7 .. 81.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 81.0 86.7 .. .. 96.7 .. 88.3 72.6 76.7 .. .. .. 80.7

.. .. .. .. .. .. 77.4 .. .. .. 96.7 96.6 .. 0.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 7.5 9.5 .. .. 3.1 .. 4.7 26.3 22.6 .. .. .. 13.1

1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 2 3 1 78 0 .. .. .. 1 .. .. 12,643 5,765 10,877 473 1,509 8,255 3,723 1,637 2,509 670 191 137 29,837

0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3.2 1.9 .. 3.9 .. 0.1 .. .. 11.4 5.8 3.2 0.4 4.6 4.3 7.9 2.9 1.5 0.9 0.2 2.7 4.5

–4.4 1.4 –0.9 0.6 –0.7 –1.6 .. 0.5 4.2 0.8 –2.9 –2.8 0.5 .. .. .. .. .. 0.5 .. .. –0.2 1.0 3.8 0.5 1.1 4.5 .. 1.2 3.2 0.4 –0.5 1.4 0.4

.. .. .. .. .. .. 0.8 .. .. .. 1.1 1.9 .. 1.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 2.7 2.8 .. .. 1.5 .. 3.0 2.7 0.8 .. .. .. 1.7

2.6 0.5 2.1 12.7 14.3 0.0 0.0 9.8 4.3 29.0 3.3 13.7 2.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 0.9 .. 5.3 9.5 .. .. 7.3 5.7 4.0 11.6 9.0 .. 3.3

2.1 71.9 38.1 6.7 26.6 36.3 15.2 10.2 20.6 9.2 49.6 68.0 1.0 47.1 70.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 .. 33.3 29.1 38.0 24.6 28.8 7.1 29.4 38.5 47.2 14.5 28.4 29.6 63.1 31.1

0.0 –8.8 –12.6 –40.5 –9.9 –2.6 –5.5 –11.2 –17.5 –12.1 –10.0 –3.9 –38.1 –30.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 –18.5 .. 0.0 1.1 –4.1 1.3 –10.6 –7.8 2.1 0.7 –8.9 2.4 –10.2 –9.4 –3.5 –3.3

35.6 0.6 0.3 2.3 0.7 0.0 9.2 6.5 7.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 7.0 11.2 .. .. .. .. 22.4 .. .. 8.2 2.8 16.4 4.4 87.4 .. 5.8 1.5 28.6 1.6 2.8 .. 7.3

5.8 5.7 6.5 4.5 7.3 1.6 7.4 2.8 2.7 3.7 7.0 6.4 3.6 8.6 11.0 6.8 12.1 0.0 6.8 .. 13.0 13.6 11.4 12.8 7.6 9.4 12.5 9.6 11.5 12.5 7.5 7.6 14.9 11.7

58.1 58.0 47.7 83.7 58.0 8.4 75.2 33.7 43.7 39.2 62.7 9.9 34.6 24.1 72.2 .. 20.0 16.7 70.2 .. 60.0 42.6 26.5 60.9 45.8 63.1 44.9 20.5 37.5 33.9 54.7 47.1 3.3 38.6

11 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 5 0 .. .. .. 2 .. .. 8 7 2 14 1 9 13 3 2 1 20 16 6

11.0 1.0 .. 19.0 1.0 .. 59.0 60.0 73.0 45.0 2.0 .. 25.0 3.0 .. .. .. .. 26.0 .. .. .. 8.4 .. 20.2 24.9 .. 8.5 5.4 10.1 25.0 26.0 .. 10.6

per fluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride, divided by midyear population. Carbon dioxide emissions are not included. Natural resource depletion: Monetary expression of energy, mineral and forest depletion, expressed as a percentage of total gross national income (GNI). Forest area: Land spanning more than 0.5 hectare with trees taller than 5 metres and a canopy cover of more than 10%, or trees able to reach these thresholds in situ. It excludes land predominantly under agricultural or urban land use, tree stands in agricultural production systems (for example, in fruit plantations and agroforestry systems) and trees in urban parks and gardens. Areas under reforestation that have not yet reached but are expected to reach a canopy cover of 10% and a tree height of 5 meters are included, as are temporarily unstocked areas, resulting from human intervention or natural causes, which are expected to regenerate. Fresh water withdrawals: Total fresh water withdrawn in a given year, expressed as a percentage of total renewable water resources. Endangered species: Percentage of animal species (including mammals, birds, reptiles,

amphibians, fish and invertebrates) classified as critically endangered, endangered or vulnerable by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. Agricultural land: The sum of areas under arable land (land under temporary agricultural crops; multiple-cropped areas are counted only once), temporary meadows for mowing or pasture, land under market and kitchen gardens and land temporarily fallow (less than five years), expressed as a percentage of total land. Abandoned land resulting from shifting cultivation is excluded. Number of deaths due to natural disasters: Number of people confirmed as dead and missing and presumed dead as a result of a natural disaster. Natural disasters are classified as climatological, hydrological and meteorological disasters, which include drought, extreme temperature, flood, mass movement, wet storm and wildfire. Population living on degraded land: Percentage of the population living on severely or very severely degraded land. Land degradation estimates consider biomass, soil health, water quantity and biodiversity and range in severity.

MAIN DATA SOURCES Columns 1 and 2: HDRO calculations based on data on total primary energy supply from IEA (2012). Columns 3 and 4: World Bank (2012a). Columns 5 and 7: HDRO calculations based on data from World Bank (2012a). Column 6: HDRO calculations based on data from World Bank (2012a) and UNDESA (2011). Columns 8 and 9: HDRO calculations based on data on forest and total land area from FAO (2012). Column 10: FAO (2011). Column 11: IUCN (2012). Column 12: HDRO calculations based on data from FAO (2012). Column 13: CRED EM-DAT (2012) and UNDESA (2011). Column 14: FAO (2012).

Table 13  Environment | 193

7 50.2 39.4 68.7 0. 1.6 47.05 1.0 1.7 3.7 36.06 1.7 2.1 30.1 1.8 39.8 32.8 1.2 2.6 92.2 –0.5 39.1 85.2 2.1 75.7 1.1 1.6 0.4 5.05 1.2 96.2 4.8 2.9 38.1 1.9 0.6 e 1.7 53.5 .5 33.7 46.5 1.6 67.0 41.0 70.6 3.5 .4 8.2 40.7 e 1.7 1..4 1.6 30.1 .5 3.8 91.9 32.4 70.4 27.05 1..6 1.5 1.4 1.1 4..2 5.3 39.7 47.05 1.8 11.6 1.7 49. 50.3 53.9 20.7 1.6 .0 2.1 1.5 49.1 50.7 44.0 40.3 0.1 120.5 g 1.1 86.7 1.2 30.05 1.6 0.7 71. 1. 49..04 1.06 1.3 1.1 1.8 73.9 50.6 100.0 36.4 1.6 30.6 9.1 .6 1.6 e 27.8 10.1 0.3 38.04 1.8 0.5 50.6 5.05 1.c Urban (% of total) 2000 2012 2000 Median age (years) 2010 Total dependency ratio (per 100 people ages 15–64) 2000 2012 Total fertility rate (births per woman) 2000 2012a.9 –0. 41.2 97.10 1.5 41.3 63.3 37.3 28.0 92.1 1.0 1.1 2.1 .8 54.0 2.2 2.4 41.8 1.6 .5 0.2 0.0 47.7 21.8 0.. 1.4 2.7 79.3 1.2 1.9 –0.06 1. 41.1 0.1 0.5 38.2 50.. 40.3 58.0 47.05 1.0 32.4 .5 0..06 .05 1.0 48.06 1.8 34.06 1. 1.4 35.2 38.1 1.5 1.5 .6 33.3 f 0.05 1.5 5.3 8.5 5.3 36.5 62.7 10.9 36.4 1.9 f 315.3 –0.9 1.7 47.6 65.3 32.0 52..5 5.5 47.0 1.2 0.07 1.6 38.06 1.3 0.6 79.9 9.2 1.07 1.4 7.6 34.9 0.9 60.3 30.9 34.8 1.4 0.06 1.9 39. 47.9 ..1 91.2 37.3 1.7 89.2 79.7 48.8 g 0.5 7.06 1.1 0.5 53.06 1.9 142.0 46.6 51.05 1.05 1.7 2.05 1.04 1.2 41.9 33.4 38. 28..6 39.1 98.3 5.4 –0.06 1.1 –0.5 75.0 1.9 18.4 61.3 38.5 70.4 0.05 1.0 0. 1.7 –0.3 2.6 2.9 0.4 –0.0 86.7 41.06 1.3 1.06 1.4 .0 58.1 1.1 2.3 31.05 1.3 5.06 1. 39. 28.5 38.1 88.5 1.2 8.05 194 | Human Development Report 2013 .1 46..5 11.9 3.7 40.7 85.05 1.8 55. China (SAR) 13 Iceland 15 Denmark 16 Israel 17 Belgium 18 Austria 18 Singapore 20 France 21 Finland 21 Slovenia 23 Spain 24 Liechtenstein 25 Italy 26 Luxembourg 26 United Kingdom 28 Czech Republic 29 Greece 30 Brunei Darussalam 31 Cyprus 32 Malta 33 Andorra 33 Estonia 35 Slovakia 36 Qatar 37 Hungary 38 Barbados 39 Poland 40 Chile 41 Lithuania 41 United Arab Emirates 43 Portugal 44 Latvia 45 Argentina 46 Seychelles 47 Croatia High human development 48 Bahrain 49 Bahamas 50 Belarus 51 Uruguay 52 Montenegro 52 Palau 54 Kuwait 55 Russian Federation 56 Romania 57 Bulgaria 57 Saudi Arabia 59 Cuba 59 Panama 5.9 1.1 –0.4 28.1 65.8 38.5 1.3 62.7 0.7 17.06 1.1 38.07 1.2 41.2 0.4 2.1 4.06 1.9 50.06 1.6 41.4 1.9 59.8 50. 48.8 36.6 41.6 0.05 1.04 1.7 1.0 1.0 68. 37.06 1.6 69..0 0.06 1.3 f 1. 1..2 0.3 1.5 45.6 6. Republic of 13 Hong Kong. 1.9 1.7 20.1 91.0 1.4 38.0 0.7 92.7 82.5 1.4 0.05 1.5 92.5 76.06 1.0 91. 2.1 84.05 1.1 87.8 73.5 0.2 1.8 31.8 40.6 0.2 37..9 69.4 9.7 59.8 100.7 36.4 38.7 1.0 51.5 .3 17.2 44.0 37.8 79.1 37.2 –0.9 31.2 54.0 37.6 0.8 8.6 7.2 1.2 .8 49.4 1.07 1.0 59.1 .7 0.3 50.6 51.4 –0.1 1.6 –0.2 1.3 1.5 45.9 .3 36.8 77. 1.1 41.3 1.1 73.6 0.5 .7 1.3 1. 1.4 28.1 67.5 54.1 37.0 0.9 0.4 2.9 60.4 56.3 25.1 10.3 79.06 1.4 46.7 98.1 1.0 4.7 39.7 0.3 8.04 1.0 86.2 68.7 2.8 1.3 0.3 78.3 47.9 40.1 90.4 0.0 40.9 9.5 1.6 88.2 83.4 42.6 0.06 1.4 1.9 0.10 1.4 44.06 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 6.2 1.2 . 43.8 37.5 2.3 3.4 0. 53.c Sex ratio at birthb (male to female births) 2000d 2012c HDI rank 2012 2030 Very high human development 1 Norway 2 Australia 3 United States 4 Netherlands 5 Germany 6 New Zealand 7 Ireland 7 Sweden 9 Switzerland 10 Japan 11 Canada 12 Korea..3 0.5 2.5 2.6 1.3 37.4 83.6 0.9 1.06 1.7 1.4 0..7 35.9 0.4 1.1 52.7 69.06 1.2 55.6 49.8 .8 50.5 2.3 1.8 46.05 1.1 –0.2 1.0 g 0.4 82.0 –0.3 1.7 1.9 44.3 10.1 10.1 36.1 52.4 1.4 .1 76.05 1. 42.3 5.6 1.5 0. 1.7 84.0 4.9 0.7 61.07 1.0 –0.5 1.3 36.4 2.6 1.6 41.4 55.06 1.5 1.1 39.6 .1 1.03 1.06 1.1 0.6 83.4 –0.6 51.8 24.4 1.1 61...3 49. 1.3 0.4 1.4 –0.05 1.9 42.5 67.4 0.6 39.0 40.9 1.05 1. 1.6 35.9 80.3 68.05 1.5 56.5 100.7 76.4 1.1 49.3 –0.06 1.8 0.8 59.9 1.9 82.3 39.08 .8 48.5 2.06 1.1 46.07 1.8 1...06 1.6 0.8 2.5 3.5 39.06 1.05 1.4 92.5 4.4 9.4 34.7 39.06 1.1 0.0 52.0 80.3 38.0 6.9 1.5 1.3 33.04 1.5 1.8 11.3 37.0 32.9 34.4 50.06 1.4 27.8 45.6 11.6 g 0.8 16.8 f 361.3 15.9 28.06 1.06 1.3 1.06 1.7 .7 95.9 97.05 1.7 38..3 54.6 2.3 0.9 67.3 48.0 1.5 2.4 2.07 1.06 1.05 1.8 49.3 .2 0.6 46.1 0.05 1.08 .7 2.4 73.2 0.8 0.5 1.5 85.4 55.0 2.8 87.05 1.7 72.7 54.8 19.9 35.7 46.0 61.06 1.5 32.9 100.07 1.1 27.06 1.9 1.3 47.4 1.2 1.9 47.4 28.3 1.8 75.2 47.0 1.7 39.1 0.3 61.3 0.1 50.1 1.07 1.06 1.8 0.3 2.9 29.0 e 22.1 41.7 42.8 3.9 38.06 .9 40.4 2.7 82.6 14.2 40.4 53.8 83..05 1.6 0.1 0.2 1.1 1.9 2.0 61.7 37.1 38.4 1.3 49.3 0.6 .3 54.0 1.8 78.0 1.5 10.3 44.1 27.2 0.5 45.7 126.4 20.4 82.06 1.6 1.8 2..06 1.04 .2 –0.5 75.1 35.4 67.1 –0...2 49.0 41.7 74.9 38.2 39.1 39.9 41.4 43.6 7.06 1.6 45.5 30.8 89.0 73.06 1..0 4.2 2.7 40.7 51.5 1.4 0.3 2.2 1..6 51.5 79.3 54.3 48..5 34.7 1.06 1.6 53.1 1.5 5.06 .3 64.3 49.1 53.4 0.2 1.06 1.4 10.6 54. 2.2 84.4 –0.3 1.04 . 48.0 0.2 34.05 1.7 11.3 2. 1. 39.8 76.2 46.4 8.6 48.5 0.06 1.5 85.0 136.06 1.8 43.6 25.8 35.5 –0.4 5.07 1.2 3.4 85..3 74.05 1.2 36.03 1.06 1.0 93.8 38.03 1.3 2.1 0.3 46.5 85..3 2.7 73.5 0.5 60.3 42.0 98.8 37.6 63.7 2.9 37.0 60.9 79.4 3.4 44.9 1..03 1.06 ..4 69.06 1.3 .4 0.6 1.0 39. 1.7 0.4 2.0 68.9 36.14 Table Population trends Population Totala (millions) Annual growth (%) 2000/2005 2010/2015a.3 46.4 46.2 0.0 76.05 1.6 74.

5 2. 1.5 44.6 52.8 3.6 59.0 47.2 63.7 19.5 23.7 12.1 1.6 21.8 2..9 0.2 76.8 23.07 1.0 60.4 42.3 1..0 54.8 21.05 1.6 106 Gabon 1.3 62.5 10.3 46.3 26.9 –1.7 1.3 52..4 0.5 4.4 77.5 77.1 108 Bolivia.5 93.0 1.Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World Population Totala (millions) HDI rank 2012 2030 2000/2005 Annual growth (%) 2010/2015a.7 19.8 48.3 0.5 58.05 1.06 1.1 1.3 1.7 79.6 85 Brazil 198.6 2..7 91 Colombia 47.2 20.8 57.3 –0.8 83 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 0.0 0.8 .1 36.1 2.9 40.7 22.7 1.05 1.7 73.1 0.8 46.05 .8 64.1 2.0 67.0 1.4 20.2 1.8 66.1 39.2 0.6 56.6 30.9 23.7 53.06 1.4 96 Dominican Republic 10.9 46.5 3.03 1.4 2.0 1.2 0..5 61. Islamic Republic of 75. 37..8 68.9 10.8 46.07 1.8 48.0 2.5 30.5 38.4 69.5 43. 47..1 i.0 44.08 1.2 2. 1.1 16.2 0.6 2.0 2.2 1.3 120 Honduras 7.9 2. 30.1 0.5 74.06 1.4 2.7 2.1 23.3 3.2 1.0 32.3 24.8 64.0 67.05 1.1 27.1 0.2 24.7 65.6 4.8 2.06 1.4 44.1 0.6 .3 51.0 74.5 43.2 1.2 1.9 61.4 1.6 62.4 2.1 26.4 101 China 1.0 73.9 2.2 57.3 64 Serbia 9.5 58.05 1.1 10.1 43.1 1.0 78 Ukraine 44.0 51.1 2.8 58.9 21.1 0.7 29.4 32.05 1.6 2.5 1.2 66.5 .1 76 Iran.05 1.7 46.1 96 Belize 0.4 35.0 21.2 56.05 1.6 3.17 1.7 53.3 29.05 1. 1.7 2.06 1.1 0.7 27.05 1.1 24.7 35.5 37.2 38.1 2.3 1.4 10.3 1.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.9 0.1 15. Plurinational State of 10.6 .9 18.2 12.5 8.9 23.6 35.05 1.3 0.05 1.8 62.3 3. 1.5 27.8 –0.9 0.6 –0.4 1. 1.3 0.8 79.2 2.5 7.05 1.7 1.08 1.2 94 Tunisia Medium human development 95 Tonga 0.4 51.0 55.05 1.1 64.05 1.5 23.4 0.9 49.5 80 Mauritius 1.9 2.05 1.8 –0.9 41.03 1.8 0.6 1.0 37.5 –0.1 72 Georgia 4.1 72.6 19.9 1.0 53.3 2.4 20.8 3.5 34.6 48.05 1.07 1.9 55.4 2.0 26.7 112 Egypt 84.6 3.1 63.5 75.5 0.1 55.07 1.5 54.3 28.5 1.7 121 Indonesia 244.7 72 Saint Kitts and Nevis 0.06 1.6 24.2 2.4 24.6 1.7 1.3 46. 26.1 114 Philippines 96.6 47.05 1.393.9 3.6 23.1 68.8 21.5 126.0 .3 0.0 96 Samoa 0.9 98.1 2.7 2.3 71 Venezuela.1 19.9 26.0 2.5 3.7 24..1 27.4 3.5 28.04 1.3 1.6 0.9 62.7 4.08 1.1 2.4 1.0 1.3 1.2 5.2 46.6 2.2 69.6 81.4 67.4 116 Syrian Arab Republic 21.8 1.6 2.3 2.5 86.5 70..9 1.05 1.1 18.9 1.05 1.3 0.9 92 Sri Lanka 21. 52.8 .2 89 Ecuador 14.4 62.2 45.1 56.2 2.5 86.5 65.4 26.4 0.4 29.8 87 Armenia 3.3 2.1 3.1 2.7 28.8 56.3 0.3 2.05 1.0 59.5 1.6 1.3 42.1 h 1.5 1.353.4 48.2 42.05 Table 14  Population trends | 195 .j 1.0 60.06 1.5 71.3 4.2 73.4 67.05 1.4 41.0 48.05 1.05 1.7 26.6 27.8 25.03 1.21 1.5 3. 38.9 22.8 22.9 70 Albania 3.5 1.1 41.9 1.3 7.4 45.9 55.2 1.7 .6 3.05 1..3 114 Uzbekistan 28.4 0. 1.3 1.03 1.2 65.2 52.05 1.3 20.0 32.8 55.9 117 Micronesia.5 59. Federated States of 0.0 51.1 2.05 1.06 1. 1.9 87.7 0.7 19.14 1.6 66.07 1.05 .6 48.0 53.2 0.1 64 Libya 6.05 1.0 18.1 107 El Salvador 6.03 1.6 h 1.8 51.0 0.0 2.2 78.2 57. 34.05 1.6 0.9 0.9 3..1 84 Oman 2.0 1.6 1.8 23.05 1.4 32.0 32.8 62.2 18.7 2.0 55.7 1.04 1. 27.1 84.1 96 Fiji 0.5 24.2 52. Republic of 3.2 28.9 49.7 72.4 1.4 65.6 2.2 24.4 81 Bosnia and Herzegovina 3.4 69 Kazakhstan 16.0 32..8 16.06 1.2 1.1 1.3 104 Maldives 0.8 1..c Sex ratio at birthb (male to female births) 2000d 2012c 61 Mexico 116.4 21.j 1.05 .1 86.4 .6 2.8 35.7 3.0 2.3 70.1 88 Saint Lucia 0.1 4.0 –0. 44.6 48.04 1..06 1.0 106.4 57.0 35.9 83.3 2.0 22.1 –0.7 .03 1.7 89.2 77.5 110 Palestine.3 0. Bolivarian Republic of 29.4 1.0 79. 1.07 1.9 31.4 2.6 3.1 0.6 15.4 62 Costa Rica 4.3 29.1 20.5 1.4 23.4 2.3 64.1 62.8 2.15 1.7 43.0 34.8 0.6 62.05 1.05 1.05 1.6 86.5 1.j 5.7 28.9 52.5 0.4 39.0 1.1 118 Guyana 0.3 20.1 25.1 62.6 84.6 2.04 1.3 2..05 1.05 1.9 73.0 30.6 2.4 1.7 61.2 2.2 21. 38.5 65.2 21.1 1.05 1.8 47.03 1.0 37.8 55.2 3.7 2.6 59.9 1.3 64.4 3.9 37.0 72 Dominica 0.2 3.3 .07 1.3 3.5 50..7 84.1 3.18 1.3 1.8 21.4 2.11 1.2 102 Turkmenistan 103 Thailand 69.4 29.06 1.6 3.4 0.7 66.8 2.7 63 Grenada 0.8 53.06 1.4 18.3 1.8 h 9.5 54.05 1.1 25.7 1.1 58.7 2.3 64.9 2.06 1.9 90 Turkey 74.8 0.05 1.j 1.0 1.08 .3 1.08 1.4 25.0 0.8 63.9 4.05 1.8 25.07 1.4 25.5 0.7 20.8 111 Paraguay 6.3 2.7 1.2 6.0 60.1 0.3 1.9 3.1 ..0 20.1 1.05 1.0 2.9 1.8 64 Malaysia 29.7 1.3 3.8 35.6 1.8 30.2 23.0 1.3 52.5 0.05 1.7 72.9 45.9 66.7 69.5 0.05 1.2 0.03 1.4 2.08 .06 1.1 1.7 3. 65.05 1.6 59.7 59.7 21.1 53.4 .1 27.4 24.5 1.5 0.0 25.3 67.0 0.0 69.6 35.8 72 Lebanon 4.7 60.2 21.2 71.7 41.2 51.9 0.05 1.1 33.7 25.8 29.4 i.8 1.5 74. 1.3 2.1 50.0 52.6 28.5 44.7 78.0 78.5 1.7 54.7 67.8 22.6 i.6 83.3 6.2 78.8 14.2 13.7 51.4 220.7 64.9 19.1 1.9 20..1 60.1 93 Algeria 36.9 j 45.8 71.2 1.05 1.4 77 Peru 29.5 h 67 Antigua and Barbuda 0.05 1..7 47.9 37.9 25.3 32.1 4.1 2.9 17.2 –1.05 1.05 1.1 0.3 2.05 1.4 49.0 72.03 1.6 1.8 39.8 5.2 2.3 1.6 81.11 1.6 .3 48.6 75.7 –0.4 105 Suriname 0.6 43.5 2.6 24.9 50.8 1.2 22.8 1.1 2.9 2.6 2.6 45.4 18.08 1.9 47.9 21.03 1.5 78 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 2. 2.3 42.1 42.9 80.0 0.4 23.6 1.9 22.2 –0.7 34.05 1.06 1.6 i.9 73..4 24.7 8.4 25.6 2.1 1.c Urban (% of total) 2000 2012 2000 Median age (years) 2010 Total dependency ratio (per 100 people ages 15–64) 2000 2012 Total fertility rate (births per woman) 2000 2012a.05 1.3 52.5 82 Azerbaijan 9.2 2.8 44.2 78.3 37.5 2.7 28.3 1.9 27.03 1..1 .. State of 4.9 56.06 1.5 85 Jamaica 2.0 27.5 113 Moldova.05 1.04 1.3 .05 1.9 67.18 1. 1.1 67 Trinidad and Tobago 1.7 3.2 2.05 .5 56.08 1.6 40.4 .4 108 Mongolia 2.5 22.8 27.7 66.8 2. 20.4 1.9 39.5 23.5 42.1 135.6 1.8 2.2 2. 1.5 51.2 100 Jordan 6.8 119 Botswana 2..7 1.1 27.9 0..04 1.8 45.0 0.3 21.9 76.03 1.5 2.7 74.0 25.1 .0 2.8 279.7 .4 4.1 48.

table 14  Population trends

Population Totala (millions) HDI rank 2012 2030 2000/2005 Annual growth (%) 2010/2015a,c Urban (% of total) 2000 2012 2000 Median age (years) 2010 Total dependency ratio (per 100 people ages 15–64) 2000 2012 Total fertility rate (births per woman) 2000 2012a,c Sex ratio at birthb (male to female births) 2000d 2012c

121 Kiribati 121 South Africa 124 Vanuatu 125 Kyrgyzstan 125 Tajikistan 127 Viet Nam 128 Namibia 129 Nicaragua 130 Morocco 131 Iraq 132 Cape Verde 133 Guatemala 134 Timor-Leste 135 Ghana 136 Equatorial Guinea 136 India 138 Cambodia 138 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 140 Bhutan 141 Swaziland Low human development 142 Congo 143 Solomon Islands 144 Sao Tome and Principe 145 Kenya 146 Bangladesh 146 Pakistan 148 Angola 149 Myanmar 150 Cameroon 151 Madagascar 152 Tanzania, United Republic of 153 Nigeria 154 Senegal 155 Mauritania 156 Papua New Guinea 157 Nepal 158 Lesotho 159 Togo 160 Yemen 161 Haiti 161 Uganda 163 Zambia 164 Djibouti 165 Gambia 166 Benin 167 Rwanda 168 Côte d’Ivoire 169 Comoros 170 Malawi 171 Sudan 172 Zimbabwe 173 Ethiopia 174 Liberia 175 Afghanistan 176 Guinea-Bissau 177 Sierra Leone 178 Burundi 178 Guinea 180 Central African Republic 181 Eritrea 182 Mali

0.1 50.7 0.3 5.4 7.1 89.7 2.4 6.0 32.6 33.7 0.5 15.1 1.2 25.5 0.7 1,258.4 14.5 6.4 0.8 1.2 4.2 0.6 0.2 42.7 152.4 180.0 20.2 48.7 20.5 21.9 47.7 166.6 13.1 3.6 7.2 31.0 2.2 6.3 25.6 10.3 35.6 13.9 0.9 1.8 9.4 11.3 20.6 0.8 15.9 35.0 13.0 86.5 4.2 33.4 1.6 6.1 8.7 10.5 4.6 5.6 16.3

0.1 54.7 0.4 6.7 9.0 101.5 3.0 7.2 37.5 55.3 0.6 22.7 2.0 36.5 1.1 1,523.5 17.4 7.8 0.9 1.5 6.2 0.8 0.2 65.9 181.9 234.4 30.8 54.3 28.8 35.3 81.9 257.8 20.0 5.2 10.2 39.9 2.6 8.7 41.3 12.5 59.8 24.5 1.3 2.8 14.6 17.6 29.8 1.2 28.2 50.8 17.6 118.5 6.5 53.3 2.3 8.5 11.4 15.9 6.4 8.4 26.8

1.8 1.3 2.6 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.9 1.3 1.1 2.7 1.6 2.5 3.9 2.4 3.1 1.6 1.4 1.6 2.9 0.8 2.4 2.8 1.6 2.6 1.6 1.9 3.4 0.6 2.3 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.0 2.4 3.1 1.6 3.2 2.3 2.0 3.0 3.2 2.6 1.7 2.7 2.7 2.3 0.1 2.5 2.2 3.8 2.0 4.4 2.6 1.6 1.6 4.0 3.1

1.5 0.5 2.4 1.1 1.5 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.0 3.1 0.9 2.5 2.9 2.3 2.7 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4 2.2 2.5 2.0 2.7 1.3 1.8 2.7 0.8 2.1 2.8 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.0 2.0 3.0 1.3 3.1 3.0 1.9 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.2 2.5 3.2 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.6 3.1 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.5 2.0 2.9 3.0

43.0 56.9 21.7 35.3 26.5 24.4 32.4 54.7 53.3 67.8 53.4 45.1 24.3 44.0 38.8 27.7 18.6 22.0 25.4 22.6 58.7 15.8 53.4 19.9 23.6 33.1 49.0 27.2 45.5 27.1 22.3 42.4 40.3 40.0 13.2 13.4 20.0 32.9 26.3 35.6 12.1 34.8 76.5 48.8 38.3 13.8 43.5 28.1 14.6 32.5 33.8 14.7 44.3 20.6 35.9 35.8 8.2 31.0 37.6 17.6 28.1

44.0 62.4 25.2 35.4 26.5 31.7 39.0 57.8 57.4 66.4 63.4 50.2 28.7 52.6 39.6 31.6 20.1 35.4 36.4 21.2 64.1 20.9 63.4 24.4 28.9 36.5 60.0 33.2 52.7 33.2 27.2 50.3 42.8 41.7 12.5 17.3 28.3 38.5 32.9 54.8 16.0 39.6 77.1 57.9 45.6 19.4 52.0 28.1 15.8 33.3 39.1 17.2 48.5 23.8 44.6 39.6 11.2 35.9 39.3 21.8 35.6

.. 22.9 18.9 22.5 18.5 23.8 19.5 18.9 22.6 18.0 18.5 17.7 15.3 19.1 19.5 22.7 18.1 18.6 19.4 17.2 18.9 18.8 17.8 17.4 20.8 19.0 16.1 24.7 18.2 17.4 17.4 18.1 17.0 18.4 19.6 19.2 18.6 18.0 15.5 19.1 15.6 17.1 18.9 16.9 17.1 16.9 18.7 18.5 17.0 18.6 k 18.2 17.0 17.9 15.9 18.2 18.5 16.7 17.7 18.7 17.1 16.3

.. 24.9 20.6 23.8 20.4 28.2 21.2 22.1 26.3 18.3 22.8 18.9 16.6 20.5 20.3 25.1 22.9 21.5 24.6 19.5 19.6 19.9 19.3 18.5 24.2 21.7 16.6 28.2 19.3 18.2 17.5 18.5 17.8 19.8 20.4 21.4 20.3 19.7 17.4 21.5 15.7 16.7 21.4 17.8 17.9 18.7 19.2 18.9 16.9 19.7 k 19.3 18.7 18.2 16.6 19.0 18.4 20.2 18.3 19.4 19.0 16.3

.. 59.6 81.3 67.9 84.9 60.5 77.6 80.4 62.0 89.5 88.9 92.4 106.8 79.9 85.9 63.8 80.5 85.0 79.2 90.8 82.7 80.6 88.3 89.0 70.4 82.8 100.5 55.2 86.3 93.8 91.0 86.4 92.1 83.0 74.7 80.5 84.1 86.4 105.6 79.2 106.0 93.2 78.8 92.1 94.5 92.4 81.6 79.2 95.6 83.7 k 82.3 95.7 85.9 101.3 86.7 80.2 96.5 90.7 85.1 89.7 98.8

.. 52.9 70.0 51.9 65.3 40.9 64.8 61.2 49.2 84.3 55.8 82.4 93.0 73.0 72.0 53.8 53.2 58.4 49.7 69.4 79.3 74.1 75.8 82.1 53.0 63.4 93.9 43.0 78.3 83.7 92.6 86.1 84.3 73.1 70.3 64.1 69.1 73.6 86.4 65.5 103.1 99.0 62.8 83.8 86.9 84.2 79.3 82.8 96.3 76.0 k 71.6 77.3 86.0 92.6 79.7 80.8 67.7 85.0 78.0 78.9 97.3

.. 2.9 4.4 2.7 4.0 2.0 4.0 3.3 2.7 5.3 3.7 4.8 7.1 4.7 5.8 3.1 3.8 4.2 3.7 4.2 4.9 4.7 4.6 5.0 3.1 4.5 6.8 2.4 5.0 5.5 5.7 5.9 5.5 5.2 4.5 4.1 4.1 5.1 6.5 4.3 6.9 6.1 4.8 5.6 6.0 5.8 5.2 5.3 6.1 5.5 k 3.9 6.1 5.8 7.7 5.8 5.7 5.8 6.0 5.4 5.4 6.8

.. 2.4 3.8 2.6 3.2 1.8 3.1 2.5 2.2 4.6 2.3 3.9 6.0 4.0 5.0 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.3 3.2 4.5 4.1 3.5 4.6 2.2 3.2 5.2 2.0 4.3 4.5 5.5 5.5 4.7 4.4 3.8 2.6 3.1 3.9 5.0 3.2 6.0 6.3 3.6 4.7 5.1 5.3 4.3 4.8 6.0 .. 3.1 3.9 5.1 6.0 4.9 4.8 4.1 5.1 4.5 4.3 6.2

.. 1.03 1.07 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.03 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.03 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.03 1.08 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.09 1.03 1.03 1.05 1.05 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.03 1.06 1.03 1.05 1.08 1.05 1.03 1.02 1.05 1.05 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.03 1.04 1.01 1.02 1.05 1.03 1.05 k 1.02 1.03 1.06 1.06 1.03 1.02 1.03 1.06 1.03 1.03 1.05

.. 1.03 1.07 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.03 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.03 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.03 1.08 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.09 1.03 1.03 1.05 1.05 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.06 1.03 1.05 1.08 1.05 1.03 1.02 1.05 1.05 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.03 1.04 1.01 1.02 1.05 1.03 1.05 k 1.02 1.03 1.06 1.06 1.03 1.02 1.03 1.06 1.03 1.03 1.05

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Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South Human Progress in a Diverse World

Population Totala (millions) HDI rank 2012 2030 2000/2005 Annual growth (%) 2010/2015a,c Urban (% of total) 2000 2012 2000 Median age (years) 2010 Total dependency ratio (per 100 people ages 15–64) 2000 2012 Total fertility rate (births per woman) 2000 2012a,c Sex ratio at birthb (male to female births) 2000d 2012c

183 Burkina Faso 184 Chad 185 Mozambique 186 Congo, Democratic Republic of the 186 Niger Other countries or territories Korea, Democratic People’s Rep. of Marshall Islands Monaco Nauru San Marino Somalia South Sudan Tuvalu Human Development Index groups Very high human development High human development Medium human development Low human development Regions Arab States East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Least developed countries Small island developing states World

17.5 11.8 24.5 69.6 16.6 24.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8 10.7 0.0 1,134.3 1,039.2 3,520.5 1,280.7 357.3 1,991.4 481.6 597.7 1,753.0 852.5 870.4 T 53.8

29.1 18.4 35.9 106.0 30.8 26.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.4 16.1 0.0 1,216.9 1,150.1 4,017.4 1,845.3 480.8 2,135.3 491.3 696.0 2,141.8 1,284.0 1,256.8 T 63.8

2.9 3.5 2.6 2.9 3.5 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.3 2.4 2.8 l 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 2.3 2.2 0.8 0.0 1.3 1.6 2.5 2.2 T 1.3 1.2 T

3.0 2.6 2.2 2.6 3.5 0.4 1.6 0.0 0.6 0.6 2.6 3.2 l 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 2.2 2.0 0.6 0.2 1.1 1.4 2.5 2.2 T 1.1 1.2 T

17.8 21.5 29.1 29.3 16.2 59.4 68.4 100.0 100.0 93.4 33.2 16.5 46.0 77.0 70.1 34.8 28.6 53.2 36.7 63.2 75.3 29.0 32.0 24.3 T 48.2 46.7 T

27.4 21.9 31.4 34.8 18.1 60.4 72.2 100.0 100.0 94.1 38.2 18.2 51.0 81.2 74.1 43.7 33.6 57.2 49.7 64.8 79.3 32.9 37.0 28.9 T 52.6 52.6 T

16.5 16.9 17.9 16.0 15.8 29.9 .. .. .. .. 18.0 .. .. 36.8 27.6 25.6 18.4 20.6 28.1 32.9 24.4 22.0 17.8 18.3 T 24.0 26.7 T

17.1 17.1 17.8 16.7 15.5 32.9 .. .. .. .. 17.5 .. .. 39.3 30.4 28.9 19.8 23.3 32.3 34.9 27.5 24.6 18.5 19.7 T 26.6 29.2 T

95.3 96.2 88.8 102.6 102.3 49.5 .. .. .. .. 88.3 .. .. 49.1 54.7 56.8 85.2 72.3 50.8 49.5 60.3 66.7 88.6 85.5 T 64.6 59.0 T

90.5 92.6 89.1 94.0 104.8 47.0 .. .. .. .. 91.0 .. .. 50.3 46.4 47.0 75.5 59.7 40.9 43.4 52.1 54.6 83.4 75.5 T 57.3 52.0 T

6.3 6.6 5.7 6.9 7.5 2.1 .. .. .. .. 6.5 .. .. 1.6 2.2 2.5 5.1 3.9 2.0 1.6 2.6 3.3 5.6 5.1 T 3.1 2.7 T

5.8 5.8 4.8 5.5 7.0 2.0 .. .. .. .. 6.3 .. .. 1.8 1.9 2.1 4.2 3.0 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.6 4.8 4.1 T 2.7 2.5 T

1.05 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.05 1.05 .. .. .. .. 1.03 .. .. 1.05 1.05 1.10 1.04 1.05 1.14 1.06 1.05 1.07 1.04 1.04 T 1.06 1.07 T

1.05 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.05 1.05 .. .. .. .. 1.03 .. .. 1.06 1.05 1.10 1.04 1.05 1.12 1.06 1.05 1.07 1.04 1.04 T 1.06 1.07 T

7,052.1 T 8,321.3 T

NOTES a Projections based on medium-fertility variant. b The natural sex ratio at birth is commonly assumed and empirically confirmed to be 105 male births to 100 female births. c Data are annual average of projected values for 2010–2015. d Data are average annual estimates for 2000–2005. e Includes Svalbard and Jan Mayen Islands. f Includes Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Norfolk Island. g Includes Canary Islands, Ceuta and Melilla. h Includes Kosovo.

i Includes Taiwan, China, and excludes Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and Macao Special Administrative Region. j Excludes Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and Macao Special Administrative Region. k Estimates are for Sudan only and do not include South Sudan. l HDRO calculations based on population data from UNDESA (2012b). T Aggregate from original data source. DEFINITIONS Population: De facto population in a country, area or region as of 1 July.

Annual population growth rate: Average annual exponential growth rate for the period specified. Urban population: De facto population living in areas classified as urban according to the criteria used by each area or country as of 1 July. Median age: Age that divides the population distribution into two equal parts—that is, 50% of the population is above that age and 50% is below it. Total dependency ratio: Ratio of the sum of the population ages 0–14 and ages 65 and older to the population ages 15–64. Total fertility rate: Number of children that would be born to each woman if she were to live to the

end of her child-bearing years and bear children at each age in accordance with prevailing age-specific fertility rates. Sex ratio at birth: Number of male births per female birth. MAIN DATA SOURCES Columns 1, 2, 13 and 14: UNDESA (2012b). Columns 3, 4 and 7–12: UNDESA (2011). Columns 5 and 6: UNDESA (2012a).

Table 14  Population trends | 197

Regions
Arab States (20 countries or territories)

Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, State of Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen
East Asia and the Pacific (24 countries)

Cambodia, China, Fiji, Indonesia, Kiribati, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nauru, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Viet Nam
Europe and Central Asia1 (31 countries)

Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Republic of Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Tajikistan, The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan
Latin America and the Caribbean (33 countries)

Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Plurinational State of Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela
South Asia (9 countries)

Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Islamic Republic of Iran, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka
Sub-Saharan Africa (46 countries)

Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, South Africa, South Sudan, Swaziland, United Republic of Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

Note: Countries included in aggregates for Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States follow UN classifications, which are available at www.unohrlls.org. 1. The former socialist countries of Europe and Central Asia that have undergone a political and economic transformation since 1989–1991 as well as Cyprus, Malta and Turkey.

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Statistical references
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by sex. so the approach must be adjusted to correct for these effects. technological and environmental submodels for 183 countries interacting in the global system. The procedure for each country can be summarized as follows: • A baseline population distribution by five-year age group cohorts. energy. • Mortality rates specific to each age cohort. Instead. on which assumptions for the future can be based.and education-specific net migrants are added to or removed from the population. are much more readily available than robust data on the microprocess of educational inheritance. strong links exist between education level and mortality. The International Futures Model is a large-scale. sociopolitical. are applied to the education groups. The projection aims to yield a dataset with the population distributed by five-year age groups (from ages 15–20 to ages 100 and older). • Age.Technical appendix: explanatory note for projections exercise This technical appendix summarizes the two projection models discussed in chapter 4. sex and education level is derived for 2000. In reality. long-term. with their populations disaggregated by age. see Pardee Center for International Futures (2013) and the University of Denver Korbel School website (www. fertility and migration behaviour. including income. But this educational inheritance mechanism is not explicitly modelled here. | Human Development Report 2013 . assumptions regarding transition rates and their future development are statistically derived from the aggregate behaviour of education systems in the past. sex and education group and to each period are applied. However. Given that the size of a birth cohort as it ages over time can change only through mortality and migration. and the above steps are repeated for the next five-year time step. health. It is based on the premise that trends in population growth are affected by improvements in education quality and quantity. even though it is not formally part of the model. The model was used in the 2011 Human Development Report to project long-term environmental trend scenarios and evaluate their impact on human development. economic. The size of a birth cohort depends on the education level of women of childbearing age. integrated global modelling system that incorporates demographic. sex. Lutz and KC (2013) Model for demography. education. where a negative relationship is traditionally observed. social change (instability and risk) and environmental sustainability. sex and education level is noted. agricultural. Pardee Center for International Futures (2013) Model for prospects of human development and policy scenarios This Report uses the International Futures Model for long-term human development projections based on closely interacting policy-related issues. For more detailed information on how the model was developed.and sex-specific education transition rates are applied. sex and education group and to each period. specific to each age. based on a comprehensive literature review and modelling exercises using past data. education and human development The Lutz and KC (2013) Model is used to project demographic trends through to 2050.ifs. • For each five-year time step. differential survival rates.du. cohorts move to the next fiveyear age group. • Fertility rates. are applied to determine the size of the new 0–5 age group. This Report employs a dataset covering 120 countries. the likelihood of an individual transitioning from one education level to the next highest strongly depends on the education level of his or her parents. gender. In projecting these cohorts forward. poverty. Lutz and KC’s multistate population modelling approach was developed in the 1970s at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria and is well accepted among technical demographers. Such an approach appears preferable because data on 200 the aggregate growth patterns of education systems. the proportion of women ages 50–54 without any formal education in 2005 can be derived directly from the proportion of women ages 45–49 without any formal education in 2000. • The new population distribution by age. and by four education levels over 50 years from 2000 (the base year) to 2050 in five-year intervals. sex and education level. • Age-. In the projections presented here the migration assumptions correspond to those used in the UN population projections. Since this expansion is partly the result of the inheritance mechanism—the fact that many parents desire that their children reach an education level at least as high as their own—inheritance is implicitly reflected in the projection. The idea behind the projection is straightforward: with a baseline year of 2000 (the latest year for which internationally comparable data are available for most countries) and assuming that education level remains invariant after a certain age. education. health. infrastructural.edu/introduction). these proportions would be constant only if no individual moved up to the primary education category after age 15 and if mortality and migration did not differ by education level.

Social capital and governance Probability of internal conflict Government revenues and corruption Democracy and inclusion 8. Infrastructure capital Infrastructure access 6. The agricultural and energy models are partial equilibrium systems at the physical level. Human capital Education participation targets and education spending Health spending targets and targets on selected health risk factors 5. • An education model representing formal education across primary. Foreign investment Foreign direct investment Portfolio flows 10. Primarily international levers 7. intergovernmental transfers and technology upgrade). Knowledge capital Research and development Source: Adapted from Pardee Center for International Futures (2013). Table A1 Twelve clusters of policy intervention levers for comparative analysis Primarily domestic levers 1.Core features of the model pertinent to human development analysis include: • A production function that sets parameters of productivity in four major categories: human resources. There are also models for international politics (focusing on trade. with an extensive health model to compute mortality (and morbidity) across 13 cause categories. infrastructure (focusing on level of access to major infrastructure systems) and the environment (focusing on resource use. including corruption levels and regime types. such as water and land. social capital. Intergovernmental transfers Foreign aid Flows from international financial institutions 12. Domestic transfers Transfers to unskilled households 4. physical capital and knowledge. secondary (separating lower and upper secondary levels) and tertiary levels. The definition of “aggressive but reasonable” builds on the analysis of the Pardee Center for International Futures series Patterns of Potential Human Progress and relies on cross-sectional functions relating the target variable to development level and using the function itself or some number of standard deviations above it. It does not assume that exact equilibrium will exist in any given year. • A health model drawing on both the World Health Organization’s Global Burden of Disease project for major causes of death and disability and the Comparative Risk Assessment approach on relative risk to represent key drivers of health such as malnutrition. foreign investment. obesity and smoking. Household transfers Remittances 11. which combines interventions in a dozen clusters of policy initiatives (see table A1) and analyses their impact relative to the forecasts under the base case scenario. Savings and investment Savings and investment rates 3. • A sociopolitical model representing fiscal policy through taxing and spending decisions and other governance variables. and carbon production). Technology Technology upgrade Technical appendix | 201 . • A population model containing 22 age-sex cohorts in a structure representing changes in fertility rates. Demographics Fertility rates Female labour force participation rates 2. • An equilibrium-seeking economic model across six sectors. it uses inventories as buffer stocks and to provide price signals so that the model converges to equilibrium over time. The projection identifies aggressive but reasonable policy interventions to construct an accelerated progress scenario. The cost of inaction is the difference in outcomes between the two scenarios. and their dynamics shape the financial sector representations in the economic model. Trade Trade barriers Export promotion 9. rather.

20% increase in economic freedom on Fraser Institute scale.5% level of truly universal goals. The global targets are a combination of normative targets (such as aspirational targets from the Millennium Development Goals) and.2% increase in technologically based productivity growth a. The capacity dimension is operationalized as the governments’ ability to mobilize revenue (up to 30% of GDP) and to use it effectively (looking especially to lower levels of corruption). 97. 20% improvement in Transparency International scale governance effectiveness on the World Bank scale.The base case scenario The base case scenario implies continuity with historical patterns (including development policies pursued in recent decades). Table A2 Targets for appropriate magnitudes of intervention. among others. c. the model’s complex dynamics—including a wide range of nonlinear relationships—provide a structure that can also generate nonlinear future patterns that differ considerably from historical trajectories. Regional specific targets are available in Pardee Center for International Futures (2013). 202 | Human Development Report 2013 . resources and policy ambition increase substantially compared with the base case. water and sanitation. Table A2 lists choices and targets for appropriate (aggressive but reasonable) magnitudes of intervention in poverty reduction. and 0. and information and communication technology. The accelerated progress scenario Under the accelerated progress scenario.5% of GDP • 30% increase in foreign direct investment • 50% increase in portfolio investment flows • 20% increase in expenditure on research and development • 50% increase in migration • Rural population living more than 2 kilometres from an all-season road reduced by half or to below 10% (whichever comes first) • Universal access to electricity • Elimination of solid fuels as the primary source for heating and cooking in the home • Corruption reduced and governance effectiveness and regulatory quality increased globally to one standard error above typical values for each country’s GDP per capita • Measures of democracy and gender empowerment increased to one standard error above typical values for each country’s GDP per capita • Probability of internal conflict reduced to 0 • 10% increase (about 3 percentage points of GDP) in government revenue in non–Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries • 20% improvement in infrastructure • Universal access to an improved source of water and sanitation (after having been halved from 1990 levels by 2015) • Universal access to mobile telephone and broadband service • 50% increase in renewable energy production Over 10 years Over 20 years Over 30 years Over 40 years Infrastructurea Governanceb Regional and domestic levelsc • For developing countries: 20% increase • 30% decrease in corruption on the in health spending. The security dimension is operationalized with two generally complementary measures of the probability of domestic conflict and of the vulnerability to conflict. Governance is conceptualized in three dimensions—security. infrastructure and governance. capacity and inclusion. b. Changes are relative to the underlying values for each country in the base case scenario and therefore take into account different national starting points and patterns. The inclusion dimension is operationalized as the democratic character of institutions and also as broader inclusiveness. as represented by the Human Development Report’s Gender Empowerment Measure. considering the possibility of goal fulfilment by all countries. relative to the base case scenario Policy area Global level Poverty reduction • Doubling of lending by international financial institutions • Foreign aid donations from developed countries increased to at least 0. However. Includes transportation. energy.

State of Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Qatar Romania Russian Federation Rwanda Saint Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Samoa Sao Tome and Principe Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Seychelles Sierra Leone Singapore Slovakia Slovenia Solomon Islands South Africa Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Suriname Swaziland Sweden Switzerland Syrian Arab Republic Tajikistan Tanzania. Republic of Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Lao People's Democratic Republic Latvia Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Maldives Mali Malta Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Micronesia. Bolivarian Republic of Viet Nam Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe 1 84 146 52 110 59 156 111 77 114 39 43 36 56 55 167 72 88 83 96 144 57 154 64 46 177 18 35 21 143 121 23 92 171 105 141 7 9 116 125 152 103 78 134 159 95 67 94 90 102 161 78 41 26 3 51 114 124 71 127 160 163 172 1 –2 1 –2 –1 –1 –1 –1 1 1 1 1 –2 –1 –1 1 2 –2 –2 –1 –1 –3 –2 –1 2 1 1 –1 Note: Positive or negative values in the rightmost column indicate the number of positions upward or downward in the country’s ranking over 2011–2012 using consistent data and methodology. Democratic Republic of the Costa Rica Côte d'Ivoire Croatia Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Djibouti Dominica Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Estonia Ethiopia Fiji Finland France Gabon Gambia 175 70 93 33 148 67 45 87 2 18 82 49 48 146 38 50 17 96 166 140 108 81 119 85 30 57 183 178 138 150 11 132 180 184 40 101 91 169 142 186 62 168 47 59 31 28 15 164 72 96 89 112 107 136 181 33 173 96 21 20 106 165 1 1 –1 2 –1 2 1 –1 –1 –1 –1 –1 –1 –1 –1 1 1 1 –1 –1 –1 –1 –1 –1 –1 Georgia Germany Ghana Greece Grenada Guatemala Guinea Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti Honduras Hong Kong. . Federated States of Moldova. Republic of Mongolia Montenegro Morocco Mozambique Myanmar Namibia Nepal Netherlands New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria 72 5 135 29 63 133 178 176 118 161 120 13 37 13 136 121 76 131 7 16 25 85 10 100 69 145 121 12 54 125 138 44 72 158 174 64 24 41 26 151 170 64 104 182 32 155 80 61 117 113 108 52 130 185 149 128 157 4 6 129 186 153 1 1 2 –2 –1 1 1 –1 –1 1 2 23 1 1 –1 –1 –2 3 –2 1 1 1 1 –1 –1 3 Norway Oman Pakistan Palau Palestine.Countries and HDI ranks in 2012 and change in rank from 2011 to 2012 Afghanistan Albania Algeria Andorra Angola Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Armenia Australia Austria Azerbaijan Bahamas Bahrain Bangladesh Barbados Belarus Belgium Belize Benin Bhutan Bolivia. a blank indicates no change. United Republic of Thailand The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Timor-Leste Togo Tonga Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Uganda Ukraine United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United States Uruguay Uzbekistan Vanuatu Venezuela. China (SAR) Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Iran. Islamic Republic of Iraq Ireland Israel Italy Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Kiribati Korea. Plurinational State of Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana Brazil Brunei Darussalam Bulgaria Burkina Faso Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Canada Cape Verde Central African Republic Chad Chile China Colombia Comoros Congo Congo.

South Africa. lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty in the process. Thailand. fairly and effectively. Mexico.”  —Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen. Resilient nations. which is why New York will continue to learn from the best practices of other cities and countries. They are also becoming more interconnected and interdependent. India is reshaping its future with new entrepreneurial creativity and social policy innovation.” —New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. and demonstrates how much can be learned from the experiences of fast development progress in so many countries in the South. and through that advancing fairness and justice in the world. But the “Rise of the South” is a much larger phenomenon.”  —UNDP Administrator Helen Clark. The 2013 Human Development Report identifies more than 40 developing countries that have done better than expected in human development in recent decades. from the Introduction . with their progress accelerating markedly over the past 10 years. “The Report refreshes our understanding of the current state of global development. Yet they share important characteristics and face many of the same challenges. Each of these countries has its own unique history and has chosen its own distinct development pathway. driven by the fast-rising new powers of the developing world.org Empowered lives. Turkey and other developing countries are becoming leading actors on the world stage. from chapter 3 “A close look at the diverse pathways that successful developing countries have pursued enriches the menu of policy options for all countries and regions.”  —Report lead author Khalid Malik. and in appreciating the importance of reflection and dialogue.United Nations Development Programme One United Nations Plaza New York. The 2013 Human Development Report analyses the causes and consequences of the continuing “Rise of the South” and identifies policies rooted in this new reality that could promote greater progress throughout the world for decades to come. Indonesia. the Report charts a course for people in all regions to face shared human development challenges together.undp. With fresh analytical insights and clear proposals for policy reforms. as they share ideas through new communications channels and seek greater accountability from governments and international institutions. And people throughout the developing world are increasingly demanding to be heard. from the Foreword “The human development approach is a major advance in the difficult exercise of understanding the successes and deprivations of human lives. USD 30 ISBN 978-92-1-126340-4 The 21st century is witnessing a profound shift in global dynamics. from chapter 1 “No one has a monopoly on good ideas. The Report calls for far better representation of the South in global governance systems and points to potential new sources of financing within the South for essential public goods. Brazil is raising its living standards by expanding international relationships and antipoverty programmes that are emulated worldwide. China has overtaken Japan as the world’s second biggest economy. NY 10017 www.