Period t

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Demand Dt
8,000
13,000
23,000
34,000
10,000
18,000
23,000
38,000
12,000
13,000
32,000
41,000

Historical Demand Data
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Series1 10 11 12 .

000 22.000 20.250 18.000 Dt = L + T*t 30.750 34.000 21.000 1 2 3 4 .125 12.000 13.000 10.000 25.000 24.000 22.000 5.500 38.Period t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Demand Dt Deseasonalized Demand 8.125 32.750 23.000 21.625 10.000 19.000 22.000 20.625 13.000 15.000 23.000 41.

Series1 5 6 7 8 .

SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.5033124 Observations 8 ANOVA df Regression Residual Total Intercept X Variable 1 1 6 7 SS 11523810 1030878 12554688 Coefficients Standard Error 18439 441 524 64 MS 11523810 171813 t Stat F 67 Significance F 0 0 0 Lower 95% 17360 367 P-value 42 8 .90420383 Standard Error 414.917888998 Adjusted R Square 0.958065237 R Square 0.

Upper 95% Lower 95.0% 19518 17360 19518 680 367 680 .0% Upper 95.

583 22.67 1.107 22.000 5.66 0.000 23.171 1.000 20.011 20.000 15.000 18.32 1.000 34.04 1.963 19.000 38.42 0.000 13 14 15 16 11910 17614 30787 44642 Estimated Seasonal Deseasonalized Demand Seasonal Factors Factor for corresponding Dt St seasons 18.631 23.47 0.000 41.000 12.679 24.55 1.487 20.683 1.472 0.83 1.000 13.000 25.000 0 1 .000 13.059 21.000 23.15 1.000 40.155 23.000 30.000 32.535 21.664 50.68 0.203 24.000 10.52 0.000 10.Period t Demand Dt 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 8.000 35.000 45.727 Forecast for next year 0.66 0.

Level Trend 18439 524 Series1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 .

333.000 Forecast 13 24500 14 24500 15 24500 16 24500 Mean Squared Error MADt MSEt 90.000 19500 4 34.000 24500 23750 -17.250.000 2 13.750 96.500 96.000 20000 19500 9.000 23750 21500 -10.333 8.750 16.500 10.000 22250 21250 -16.250 17.000 3 23.719 Estimate using Moving Average Method Forecast error is very fairly high and hence this is not correct 12.437.321.25*MADt .000 32.750 10 13.000 21500 22750 9.429 123.Period Demand Level Forecast Error Absolute Error t Lt Dt Ft Et At 1 8.500 5 10.587.417 7.643 9.500 5.750 1.750 9.750 8 38.750 7 23.500 8.468.000 21250 20000 2.500 11 32.250 9 12.000 47.125.050 8.500 9.563 9.000 22750 22250 10.226.250 10.148 is standard dev L0 = 1.250 12 41.500 94.333 98.000 2.000 6 18.000 21250 21250 -1.750 4.

MAPEt %Error is is not correct 95 11 8 44 85 75 33 42 TSt 95 53 38 39 49 53 50 49 1 2 2 -1 0 2 0 -2 .

000 23.383 21.093 88.486 34.808 86.083 198.000 20.436 2.217 -13.203 8.265 32.595 118.315 13.595 11.456 133.908 -3.544 20.217 19.093 3.000 21.065 Forecast 13 23.641 18.860 10.436 21.083 8.783 13.436 2.951 23.490 23.383 -11.226 10.675 128.278 13.490 14 15 16 23.595 11.000 21.527 114.000 20.000 19.544 -19.473 20.908 20.410.617 110.192 -2.000 20.490 Estimate using Simple Exponential Smoothing Method 12760.622.203 8.226 20.527.675 22.196.808 2.226 112.435.074 41.000 20.532 23.436 99.083 14.550 12.132.595 20.675 7.Period t 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Demand Level Forecast Error Absolute Error Mean Squared Error Lt Dt Ft Et At MSEt 22.675 7.203 22.340.490 21.000 21.000 22.456 19.000 20.714 38.226 10.824.000 20.031.203 108.490 23.5543 L0 = 1.783 114.083 14.979.25*MADt Standard deviation of forecasted demand error is fairly large relative to the size of th .936.473 -17.527 17.192 20.617 11.246.

208 %Error 176 59 13 41 116 14 12 46 85 63 36 47 MAPEt 176 118 83 72 81 70 62 60 62 63 60 59 TSt 1.046 8.95 1.125 9.00 2.00 2.64 2.659 10.247 9.15 2.925 9.38 moothing Method ly large relative to the size of the forecasted demand.879 8.777 7.284 9.25 0.083 10.58 -1.MADt 14.16 0.86 0.143 9.51 1. .03 -0.368 10.

609 Level Trend Forecast Error Absolute Error Lt Tt Ft Et At 12.775 14.000 38.485 4.564 5.270 -11.000 23.301 1.018 1.555 15.469 11.469 11.000 32.515 -4.000 Forecast 13 14 15 16 31.000 10.007 16.993 -16.262 1.409 14.963 1.067 36.000 34. MAD is fa Standard deviation is = 1.000 18.847 26.137 137 137 26.000 41.775 27.469 21.Period t Demand Dt 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 8.015 1.007 20.526 35.307 27.445 1.549 13.008 1.25 X 8836 i.730 Estimate using Trend Corrected Exponential Smoothing Method Though tracking signal is within range and indicate better estimates.000 23.045 is still fairly large.645 21.875 17.513 27.314 13.563 23.594 1.775 14.445 16.485 30.847 15.000 13.298 1.830 24.847 15.570 1.217 27.566 21.985 33.443 1.541 29. .290 19.439 1.290 7.730 11.564 14.686 -13.123 1.564 5.967 23.322 1.445 1.710 -7.000 13.967 3. 11.967 3.314 26.e.000 12.438 13.

399 8.11 -0.841.267 83.564 3.624 6.701 81.395 107.577 8.045 is still fairly large.338 8.767 7.010.613.864 MADt 5.603.41 0.523.137.90 0.573 8.958. MAD is fairly large.04 .505 4.00 -0.788.079 113.981 8.00 2. MAPEt 70 40 37 40 55 49 42 41 52 58 54 52 TSt 1.639.523 28. i.836 102.369. 11.06 -2.Mean Squared Error MSEt 30.318 85.836 %Error 70 11 32 47 115 22 1 35 132 114 14 29 rrected Exponential Smoothing Method ge and indicate better estimates.146 94.15 -0.11 -1.e.096 16.22 1.732.355 7.348 105.957.705 69.554 7.58 -0.85 1.

481327197 R Square 0.951049 892.73647352 0.9 1480916667 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% 12015.15152 6565.015340286 0.SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.09714727 -2612.5701958 .012894 1.3 3.113127023 1137824009 113782400.830179424 0.0095994 1.154843457 Standard Error 10666.23167587 Adjusted R Square 0.88337 Observations 12 ANOVA df Regression Residual Total Intercept X Variable 1 1 10 11 SS MS F Significance F 343092657.608777 1548.113127023 -438.3 343092657.

Upper 95% Lower 95.472294 -438.91181 3536.0% Upper 95.91181 -2612.0% 26642.608777 26642.472294 .5701958 3536.

983 2.683 13.248 532 1.674 539 0.897 -103 10.862 514 0.951 951 13.000 19.682 1.34959 Tracking signal is within range as well as standard deviation.159 13.591 3.841 -1.845 -4.622 527 1.000 19.682 14.000 21.666 41.636 -364 12.555 514 0.000 24.25 X MAD = 1846.374 511 1.664 33.625 20.000 24.391 23.468 10.625 23.665 Standard Deviation = 1.125 22.911 514 0.758 -242 18.269 269 34.000 22.500 22.157 27.591 32.664 37.125 23.170 25.171 23.234 234 23. .284 284 Estimate using Trend Corrected Exponential Smoothing Method Forecast 13 14 15 16 11969 17624 30930 44778 0.273 540 0.155 41.000 21.983 38.750 21.173 1.000 18.750 19.439 524 8.467 9.359 512 0.860 511 1.697 16.Period t 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Demand Deseasonalize Level Trend Seasonal Factor Forecast Error D_bar Lt Dt Tt St Ft Et 18.250 20.000 22.772 531 1.085 526 1.473 0.609 -3.472 8.000 24.000 20.000 22.

829.289 3.47 3.552.07 7.84 4.95 3.15 8.586.08 -0.131 343.67 8.08 -2.87 -0.05 6.44 TSt 1.070.62 12.96 9.69 MAPEt 11.52 6.32 -0.703.434.97 0.00 2.29 6.80 1.466 2.79 3.30 2.519 479.42 18.17 0.760 2.951 4.88 6.099.Absolute Error Mean Squared Error At MSEt moothing Method 951 234 269 103 242 3391 2983 364 1159 3591 4155 284 903.599 260.376 4.00 3.66 27.173 MADt 951 592 485 389 360 865 1167 1067 1077 1329 1586 1477 %Error 11.99 0.992 3.60 0.343 219.88 1.84 12.75 .76 9.996 2.00 3.64 0.76 2.

Winter's model is most suitable.21 -1.208 Holt's Model 8.Comparison Forecasting Method MAD MAPE Moving Average 9.44 TS Range -1.47 .00 59.38 to 2.719 Simple Exponential Smoothing 10.52 to 2.15 to 2.15 -2.00 8.00 -2.836 Winter's Model 1.477 So.64 to 3. 49.00 52.

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