India’s Energy Security Perspectives “Scenarios & Strategies”

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India

Contents • Introduction • Oil and Gas Scenario • Promoting Conservation and Efficiency • Technology Absorption • Challenges and Opportunities • Perspective

• Core Strategies

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India

Average Annual GDP & Population Growth : 2005-2030
7.5 6.5
GDP Population

Percent per Year

5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5
fr ic a ta te s as t ia ia a pa n K or ea e Eu ro p hi n In d us s E ra z B
Source: EIA, IEO2008 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India

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50 1.20 1.03 1. India .00 0.50 0.02 Billion People 1.38 1.50 2.55 2.Fuel for the rising Indian population 2.70 1.82 1.00 01 20 11 20 21 20 31 20 41 20 51 20 61 20 71 20 India's population reach 2 billion? It is a real possibility over the long term Source : Population Reference Bureau Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.93 1.00 1..

India .Growth in Electricity Sector 800 700 600 Billion KWH 500 400 300 200 100 0 -91 0 9 19 -01 0 0 20 -03 2 0 20 -04 3 0 20 -05 4 0 20 -06 5 0 20 -07 6 0 20 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd..

Prices – High & Volatile Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. India ..

Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2008 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.0 0. constitutes the largest part of this growth. India. the demand is stronger  Since 2003. China U. especially China.8% per year.S.3 1.Despite High Prices.  Non-OECD countries. world oil consumption has growth has averaged 1. and the Middle East. India .6 1.) Source: EIA.8 1.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (est.. Other (Includes India) 2.7 Total World Oil Consumption Growth Change from Prior Year (Million Barrels per Day) 1.

World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type 250 History Projections 33% 29% Natural Gas 24% Share of World Total 200 Quadrillion Btu 37% Liquids Coal 27% 150 100 23% Renewables 50 8% 6% 8% Nuclear 6% 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: EIA.. IEO2008 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. India .

World Liquids Consumption by Region 2030 North America Non-OECD Asia OECD Europe OECD Asia C/S America Middle East 2005 25 15 16 16 9 6 6 8 10 7 9 28 31 % Change 2005-2030 11% 102% 3% 7% 42% 62% 43% 47% Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia Africa 5 3 4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Source: EIA.. India . IEO2008 Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.

.5 Million bpd World needs One new Saudi Arabia every three years to offset the decline Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.3 Million bpd / 4% Per Annum Saudi production : 10.Worldwide Decline in Production Does it look like that top 10 International Oil Companies have already passed Peak production ??     Current Annual Oil Production in World : 85 Million bpd World’s Average Production Decline : 3. India .

51 41 170.54 100 105. India 20 01 -1 2 40 195.41 150 34 32 0 20 04 -0 5 20 05 -0 6 20 06 -0 7 20 07 -0 8 34 34 20 08 -0 9 20 09 -1 0 20 10 -1 1 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.48 50 89.49 ..37 42 150.58 95.06 42 120.Crude – Indigenous Production and Imports 250 History Projections Domestic 200 Imports MMT 86.

0 Oil Production Oil Consumption 120. India 20 06 .0 0.0 20.0 MMT 80.0 19 70 19 72 19 74 19 76 19 78 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 Source: BP Statistical Review 2007 • Oil production almost stagnated ~34 MMT • Oil consumption – more than 3 times of oil production • Huge supply demand gap • Crude oil import burden > 80 MMT ~ USD 64 Billion [Rs..India :Yawning Demand Supply Gap – “Oil” 140. 256.0 60.0 40.0 100.000 Crore] > 33% of total import Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.

. India .Deepwater Oil and Gas to show strong growth Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.

5 1.6 0.0 0.7 4.0 0.5 0 Oil Sands Ultra Heavy Gas to Liquids Coal to Liquids Biofuels Shale Oil Source: EIA..2 2005 2030 1 0.5 4 3.5 3 2. IEO2008 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.0 0.0 2.1 1.3 1. 2005 .1 0.30 Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day 4.5 0. India .Worldwide Unconventional Production.3 0.5 2 1.

Global Transportation sector dominates liquid fuel consumption 20 History Projections Transportation million barrels per day 15 10 5 Industrial Electric Power 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 Residential and Commercial 2010 2020 2030 Source : AEO 2008 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. India ..

.Transportation Energy – More for Light Vehicles 20 History Projections Light-Duty Vehicles quadrillion Btu 15 10 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 5 Air Rail 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Water 2030 Source : AEO 2008 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. India .

India .2030  2008 : 800 Million Cars Worldwide  Car and growing Oil Demand  No existing alternative to Oil as fuel  Demand Growth Transport Fuel :  OECD : + 27 %  Non OECD : + 111 % in Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.Transport Fuel Forecast ..

A-Star.Transport Fuel Demand Look 2014.. India . Ten Thousand New Buses for New Delhi Jazz. India to reach 4th Position in light Vehicle Market after US. C 70 – the upcoming cars Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. China & Japan Look 2010. Escudo. Cruse. Santa Fe. Ingenio. C 30. M 300.

28% Light Distillates Middle Distillates Heavy Ends 40 50 Source : MoPNG Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. 19% 33.77. India . 53% 22.87.What is driving the Indian Liquid demand ? Petroleum Products Bitumen Lubes LSHS Furnace Oil Diesel ATF SKO Naptha LPG 0 10 20 MMT 30 62.19..

Optimizing Fuel Consumption Sector wise total Energy Consumption 14% Sector wise Consumption of Petroleum Products 13% 14% 5% 4% 10% 49% 18% 22% Industry Transport Domestic Agriculture Others 51% Estimation of Energy Efficiency Scenario in India (Saving Potential): • • Total Energy Consumption Oil & Gas Consumption : 411 MMTOE : 168 MMTOE • • • Average Saving Potential Total Oil & Gas Saving Potential Money Equivalent : 22% : 37 MMTOE : Rs. 74.000 Crore Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. India ..

(~0.9 MMT) per annum. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. 1395 Crore per Annum.5 Lakhs (Year : 2004) 16828 Litres per day (CNG : 6979 Litres. Delhi (@ Current Fuel Prices) Annual Fuel Loss in Delhi 1. ( @ Current Fuel Prices) Annual Monetary Loss due to the Fuel Loss in Rs. the annual fuel loss is approx. 3.Fuel losses at Intersections Estimation of Fuel wasted by vehicles at cross sections/ junctions/ signals due to idling / congestion of traffic Daily Traffic Entering 12 Intersections in Delhi Fuel Loss at 12 Intersections in Delhi Fuel Loss in city of Delhi (600 Intersections) 17.27 MMT) Extrapolated to nine Metros. approx. Diesel : 121054 Lts & Petrol : 383378 Lts) Daily Monetary Loss due to the Fuel Loss in Delhi Rs. 6. Diesel : 2349 Litres & Petrol : 7500 Litres) 858967 Litres per day (CNG : 354534 Lts.97 Million Barrels petroleum products approx. 4506 Crore at current fuel prices. India .36 Million barrels (~ 0.. Rs.82 Crore per day.

2 3 1 57 6. India 48 55 74 62 7. .Natural Gas – Indigenous Production and LNG Import 120 8 .7 0 2 60 40 92 2.6 7 0 2 .7 2 3 100 Production LNG Imports 5 . 54 8.. Billion Cubic Metre 80 0 . 55 32 32 32 0 19 90 -9 1 20 00 -0 1 20 03 -0 4 20 04 -0 5 20 05 -0 6 20 06 -0 7 20 07 -0 8 18 29 32 32 20 20 08 -0 9 20 09 -1 0 20 10 -1 1 20 01 -1 2 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.

Kochi & Mangalore • RLNG 250 + MMSCMD • Reliance additions by 2011 . India .India: Upcoming Sources of Natural Gas •Major Contributors • ONGC moving ahead 110 + MMSCMD • 56 MMSCMD now (Offshore+Onshore) Now • G1 – GS15 : 2 MMSCMD by 2009 • Vashistha + S1 : 6 MMSCMD by 2011-12 • KG DWN 98/2 : 27 MMSCMD by 2013-14 • Mahanadi : 12 MMSCMD by 2013-14 • OIL • JV • LNG • Petronet LNG Capacity doubling to 12 MMMTPA • Import at Dabhol..12 • 40 MMSCMD by 2008 • 80 MMSCMD by 2009 • 120 MMSCMD by 2010 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.

Adani. Essar. GAIL Commissioning Commissioned Planned by 2011 Being Revived 5 5 Hazira Mundra Mangalore 2.5 (Being expanded to 3.6) Shell & Total GSPC. HPCL ONGC Commissioned Planned by 2013 Planned 2011-12 5 1.25 Enmore 5 IOC Planned  LNG Imports in India to triple in the XIth Five Year Plan Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.India’s LNG Supply Outlook Source PLL Dahej PLL Kochi Dabhol Capacity MMTPA 5 (Planned for Expansion to 10) Owners Petronet LNG Petronet LNG NTPC. India ..

. India . another 7 expected in 2010-12  Production to Grow by 86% by 2016 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.Global LNG Trade  99 LNG Carriers to be delivered in 2008 -09 & 32 ordered for 2010-12  5 Liquefaction Plants to come on line in 2009.

.Global Gas Trade Evolvement Present Future (Source: CRISIL Report on Natural Gas: Annual Review) Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. India .

boosted production and added new reserves.0 80 70 • Percentage BOPD 15. Implementation spanning over seven years.Impact of Technology – Shaping Future of Mumbai High • 450000 EORP-MHS & MHN L-II APP MH a “Matured field” Several rounds of during last 32 years.. expansion of surface facilities and drilling of infill wells. reversed declining trend. inputs 500000 25. 5.0 20 10 0.0 0 80-81 82-83 84-85 86-87 88-89 90-91 92-93 94-95 96-97 98-99 00-01 02-03 04-05 06-07 08-09 10-11 12-13 14-15 16-17 18-19 20-21 22-23 24-25 26-27 Year 40% Rec plan Revised FR % recovery Water Cut % 28-29 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.Com parative Production Profile Revised decline under Existing Plan Vs.00 0.00 Mar-92 Mar-96 Mar-00 Mar-04 Mar-08 100 90 Mum bai High .0 20.00 PPM Proj.0 40 30 5. CRMP-I & II • % OIIP Recovered MH North Phase-I & MH South Phase-I Oil (bopd) 15.0 60 50 10.00 Gas Lift 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 Mar-76 Mar-80 Mar-84 Mar-88 MH Ph-II MH Ph-IIIB MH Ph-IVA MH Ph-IVB Addl A1 in MHN 20. India . 40 % recovery Plan 25. Redevelopment program of installation of new platforms.00 • • Major redevelopment program launched 2000-2001.00 MH Ph-III 10.

India .Technology Induction “Increasing Recovery ..Arresting Decline” • • • • • • • • • • • Q Marine Seismic Geo-Steering Electromagnetic Sea Bed Logging Stim Gun Stimulation Coil Tubing Assisted Stimulation Tubing Disappearing Smart Plug Smart Unmanned platform Compact Cyclonic Degasser Virtual Metering Intelligent Auto Gas Lifts Semi Intelligent Segmented Completion • Under Balanced Drilling Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.

000+ Crores • Attracting investment from global players – directly and in partnerships (PI/ JV) • Taping domestic capital markets 78 Overall investment in Oil & Gas sector in the next 10 years ~ $80-100 bn Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. Total 2.Challenges & Opportunities : Investments Planned Oil and Gas Sector Investment (2007-2017) ($ Bn) Incremental Investment (Optimistic Case) Base Case Proposed Investment XIth Plan (PSU): 30 8 35 5 10 20 E&P Transmission Distribution Refining Total CAPEX 18 5 5 – ONGC 82672 Crore – OVL 58674 Crore – OIL 10176 Crore – IOCL 45215 Crore – HPCL 32285 Crore – BPCL 12553 Crore – GAIL 12159 Crore …etc. India .69..

• 84% growth in Non OECD countries like India and China.Perspective • World Wide energy Consumption projected to grow by 50% by 2030.. • Crude Oil prices expected to remain high • New Sources available mainly in harsh environments Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. India .

.Perspective • Technologies to push recoveries from aging fields • Look for acreages abroad • Huge Infrastructure Growth supported by Institutions • Increased R&D efforts for alternatives Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. India .

Some Core Strategies for India • Moderate the demand through improved efficiency • Expand and Diversify supplies from non conventional sources • Partnering Global Energy Security • Fast Track Technology Initiatives to improve recovery and explore harsh environments Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. India ..

the next stop for India Population   Oil. India . why not ? Thanks Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd..

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