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02 April 2013

Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING – Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6

Automobiles & Parts
Banks
Beverages

Over Valued .........................................................................................6
Under Valued ..................................................................................6

Under Valued ..................................................................................6
Under Valued ....................................................7
Construction & Building Materials

Chemicals

Electronics & Electrical Equipment
Engineering & Machinery
Food & Drug Stores

Over Valued ..................................................7
Over Valued ................................................................8

Over Valued .......................................................................8
Under Valued ........................................................8

Food Producers & Processors
Under Valued ..............................................................................9
General Retail
Over Valued .........................................................................................9
Heath

Over Valued ..........................................................9
Over Valued ...............................................9

Household Goods & Textiles

Information Technology & Hardware
Under Valued ................................................................................... 10
Insurance
Over Valued ..................................................................... 10
Leisure & Hotels
Life Assurance

Over Valued .................................................................... 10
Under Valued ................................................................ 11

Media & Entertainment
Under Valued ...................................................................................... 11
Mining
Under Valued ................................................................................... 11
Oil & Gas
Personal Care & Household Products

Over Valued .......................................... 12
Over Valued ................................................ 12

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
Under Valued ............................................................................... 12
Real Estate
Under Valued ..................................................... 13
Software & Computer Services
Speciality & Other Finance
Support Services

Over Valued .......................................................... 13
Over Valued ..................................................................... 14

Over Valued ....................................................... 15
Telecommunication Services
Under
Valued
Transport
................................................................................... 15
Under
Valued
Utilities
....................................................................................... 15

DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17

©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

02 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 2 of 17

Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscriber’s personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a year’s data for 40 stocks within Intellisys’ stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%

120.0%

110.0%

110.0%

100.0%

100.0%

90.0%

90.0%

80.0%

80.0%

70.0%

70.0%

60.0%

60.0%

50.0%

50.0%

40.0%

40.0%

30.0%

30.0%

20.0%

20.0%
1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell

Trend

Source: Intellisys
©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

02 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 3 of 17

Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing ‘Target Indications’. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys’ architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant ‘Target’ is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the ‘Target’ as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that ‘Target Indication’ delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management team’s ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analyst’s approach to determining ‘target prices’ is to start with a modest range of
some 6 – 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the ‘intuitive’ result. Intellysis’
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from ‘falling in
love’ with a stock or becoming mesmerised by ‘management cults’.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscriber’s existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)

RISK WARNING – Ratings and Targets
Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions. If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other
equity investments, you should contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not be
suitable for everyone. The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise
and you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency,
fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them.
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

02 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 4 of 17

How to use the report
This daily report is typically available for download as a PDF from 7am - well in advance of the market’s
open - and is based upon previous day’s closing prices.
We have kept the report deliberately simple for quick reading and identification of the shares most likely to
be active as can be seen from the following:

Longer term action based
upon implied target price
Today’s action
Sector

Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics

Closing price

General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES

Company

Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25

12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50

12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Latest 12 month Hi/Lo for
the share price

LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell

Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29

Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31

ßeta measures a share’s
volatility/risk relative to
market (see below)

Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
ßeta <1.0

Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)

ßeta =1.0

Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)

ßeta >1.0

Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)

©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

02 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 5 of 17

Under Valued

Aerospace & Defence
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BAE SYSTEMS

394.30

270.90

394.30

Neutral

Buy

581

0.66

CHEMRING GROUP

260.10

217.00

414.70

Neutral

Buy

324

0.66

COBHAM

243.00

190.10

248.10

Neutral

Buy

289

0.83

MEGGITT

491.00

364.30

491.00

Sell

Sell

411

1.32

1130.00

781.16

1131.00

Neutral

Neutral

1109

1.07

ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS

Target

Beta

SMITHS GROUP

1257.00

979.50

1328.00

Neutral

Sell

1057

0.71

ULTRA ELECTRONICS HDG.

1720.00

1424.00

1780.00

Neutral

Sell

1556

0.51

Unde r V a lue d

Automobiles & Parts
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

GKN

264.50

173.60

285.00

Neutral

Neutral

Target
255

2.00

INCHCAPE

502.50

305.20

530.00

Neutral

Neutral

500

1.48

LOOKERS

99.00

56.50

100.50

Neutral

Neutral

105

1.24

PENDRAGON

22.75

13.25

25.00

Neutral

Buy

34

1.12

Over Valued

Banks
Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BARCLAYS

291.15

150.55

327.35

Neutral

Sell

Target
51

Beta
1.93

HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50)

702.50

503.20

740.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1230

1.17
1.87

LLOYDS BANKING GROUP

48.69

25.29

55.68

Sell

Strong Buy

75

ROYAL BANK OF SCTL.GP.

275.50

196.60

367.80

Neutral

Sell

33

1.34

STANDARD CHARTERED

1703.50

1228.50

1837.50

Neutral

Sell

1094

1.70

Under Valued

Beverages
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

545.00

348.00

572.00

Neutral

Neutral

592

0.55

DIAGEO

2075.00

1477.00

2075.00

Neutral

Sell

1812

0.55

SABMILLER

3464.00

2348.50

3509.50

Neutral

Buy

4005

0.95

BARR (AG)

Beta

Under Valued

Chemicals
Stock

Target

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)

380.20

267.60

406.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

700

CARCLO

398.00

345.75

503.00

Neutral

Neutral

426

0.74

2743.00

2050.00

2743.00

Neutral

Sell

2187

1.04

CRODA INTERNATIONAL

Target

Beta
#NA

260.70

179.00

275.00

Neutral

Buy

367

1.00

JOHNSON MATTHEY

2300.00

2080.27

2573.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

12683

1.44

VICTREX

ELEMENTIS

1660.00

1185.00

1736.00

Neutral

Sell

1536

1.13

SYNTHOMER

214.80

127.40

248.00

Neutral

Neutral

227

1.16

ZOTEFOAMS

224.00

157.00

225.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

401

0.99

©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

02 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 6 of 17

Under Valued

Construction & Building Materials
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ALUMASC GROUP

90.00

61.50

104.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

246

0.51

BALFOUR BEATTY

234.80

234.00

320.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

1013

0.79

BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS

Target

Beta

274.10

114.00

274.10

Neutral

Strong Buy

468

1.50

BELLWAY

1297.00

660.00

1297.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1998

1.11

BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE)

2041.00

1177.00

2093.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3461

0.64

BOOT (HENRY)

174.00

115.50

174.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

357

0.83

BOVIS HOMES GROUP

741.50

399.30

751.00

Neutral

Sell

580

1.14

CARILLION

272.30

235.50

331.80

Buy

Strong Buy

828

1.10

CLARKE (T)

55.25

40.00

61.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

278

0.82

273.75

188.00

306.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

572

0.57

1452.00

1052.00

1540.00

Neutral

Sell

831

1.14

918.00

579.00

965.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1766

0.99

COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
GALLIFORD TRY
KELLER

815.00

348.25

830.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2110

1.25

1172.00

1095.00

1408.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3469

0.94

76.25

49.00

76.25

Neutral

Strong Buy

212

1.07

MARSHALLS

125.00

76.00

125.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

297

1.37

MORGAN SINDALL GROUP

555.00

508.00

695.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3431

0.86

KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR

NORCROS

16.50

9.25

16.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

36

1.11

1069.00

532.00

1069.00

Sell

Neutral

1172

1.15

REDROW

187.80

107.30

195.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

303

1.05

SIG

158.40

82.30

162.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

490

1.74

3.88

3.88

20.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

49

0.89

90.90

40.28

91.15

Neutral

Neutral

98

1.58

TRAVIS PERKINS

1454.00

906.50

1454.00

Sell

Strong Buy

2708

1.97

WOLSELEY

3273.00

2121.32

3337.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

5401

1.43

PERSIMMON

SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY

Over Valued

Electronics & Electrical Equipment
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

1295.00

920.00

1364.00

Neutral

Sell

784

0.78

DOMINO PRINTING SCIENCES

639.00

509.00

717.00

Neutral

Buy

862

1.18

E2V TECHNOLOGIES

120.00

105.50

149.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

251

1.30

INVENSYS

350.80

186.10

366.80

Neutral

Neutral

349

1.42

LAIRD

217.30

177.00

249.30

Neutral

Sell

83

2.12

OXFORD INSTRUMENTS

1655.00

1096.00

1752.00

Neutral

Sell

1199

1.01

RENISHAW

1838.00

1260.00

2081.00

Neutral

Buy

2427

1.26

SPECTRIS

2456.00

1427.00

2470.00

Neutral

Sell

2251

1.52

0.07

0.07

0.21

Buy

Strong Buy

0

0.84

TT ELECTRONICS

176.00

114.00

190.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

409

1.59

XAAR

425.00

185.00

425.00

Sell

Sell

236

1.11

DIALIGHT

BIOME TECHNOLOGIES

©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

Target

Beta

02 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 7 of 17

Over Valued

Engineering & Machinery
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP

84.25

54.25

91.75

Neutral

Buy

104

1.26

BODYCOTE

536.00

310.30

556.50

Neutral

Neutral

512

1.61

CASTINGS

342.00

277.75

358.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

710

0.99

VESUVIUS

352.60

263.19

402.10

Neutral

Buy

499

2.19

FENNER

389.00

329.30

456.50

Neutral

Buy

560

1.42

HALMA

518.00

373.10

531.50

Neutral

Sell

400

0.75

HILL & SMITH

446.00

297.00

480.00

Neutral

Sell

329

1.37

1295.00

776.00

1347.00

Neutral

Neutral

1410

1.40

IMI
METALRAX GROUP
MORGAN CRUCIBLE
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARCO

Target

Beta

3.13

2.93

8.87

Neutral

Neutral

3

0.85

282.40

220.30

333.90

Neutral

Strong Buy

552

1.82

2904.00

1859.00

3037.00

Neutral

Sell

2349

1.00

238.40

177.00

251.80

Neutral

Sell

224

1.65

38.00

35.40

104.11

Neutral

Buy

54

0.73

2687.00

1900.00

2728.00

Neutral

Sell

2331

0.84

VITEC GROUP

654.50

586.50

740.00

Neutral

Sell

597

1.39

WEIR GROUP

2263.00

1397.00

2474.00

Neutral

Sell

2065

1.39

Over Valued

Food & Drug Stores
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

GREGGS

476.80

449.00

526.00

Neutral

Buy

697

0.47

MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.

276.20

248.60

302.40

Neutral

Sell

206

0.39

SAINSBURY (J)

378.50

283.50

378.50

Neutral

Sell

231

0.58

TESCO

381.55

297.05

385.95

Neutral

Sell

290

0.69

66.00

18.88

78.75

Neutral

Sell

47

0.83

THORNTONS

Beta

Under Valued

Food Producers & Processors
Stock

Target

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

1901.00

1167.00

1902.00

Sell

Buy

2102

0.62

CRANSWICK

986.00

732.50

1023.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2081

0.49

DAIRY CREST

428.60

290.40

444.00

Neutral

Buy

491

0.92

DEVRO

351.00

278.00

380.00

Neutral

Buy

521

0.31

80.25

54.50

170.00

Neutral

Sell

-180

1.25

ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS

PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)

©

850.00

633.50

850.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1560

0.70

2784.00

2005.00

2784.00

Neutral

Neutral

2774

0.57

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

02 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 8 of 17

Under Valued

General Retail
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS

29.00

20.50

29.50

Neutral

Buy

33

0.69

408.00

222.40

429.30

Neutral

Sell

360

0.53

1329.00

1000.00

1586.00

Neutral

Sell

972

1.27

628.00

585.00

728.50

Neutral

Sell

280

0.94

33.79

12.67

35.00

Neutral

Neutral

36

1.50

6.50

2.76

9.30

Neutral

Sell

3

1.08

29.50

19.50

48.25

Sell

Strong Buy

110

0.98

HALFORDS GROUP

322.70

189.00

356.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

497

0.67

JD SPORTS FASHION

694.00

606.50

841.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1511

0.52

BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP

Target

Beta

43.00

38.00

70.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

82

1.24

KINGFISHER

287.80

254.10

313.80

Neutral

Buy

389

0.92

MARKS & SPENCER GROUP

390.00

312.20

398.80

Neutral

Buy

513

0.64

64.25

42.00

71.00

Neutral

Sell

60

1.04

315.00

152.00

362.00

Neutral

Neutral

330

0.46

NEXT

4366.00

2896.00

4366.00

Neutral

Sell

3691

0.66

TED BAKER

1300.00

810.50

1354.00

Neutral

Sell

652

0.55

63.50

32.13

68.00

Neutral

Sell

50

1.48

DARTY

MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE

TOPPS TILES

Over Valued

Heath
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BIOQUELL

146.00

122.50

160.00

Neutral

Sell

Target
116

0.45

CONSORT MEDICAL

778.00

584.00

831.50

Neutral

Sell

575

0.40

OPTOS

151.00

151.00

279.25

Buy

Neutral

166

1.21

SMITH & NEPHEW

760.00

580.00

760.00

Neutral

Sell

682

0.41

Over Valued

Household Goods & Textiles
Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

GAMES WORKSHOP

642.50

557.00

720.50

Neutral

Neutral

629

0.43

HEADLAM GROUP

348.25

263.00

355.00

Neutral

Sell

304

0.92

80.75

55.25

97.00

Neutral

Buy

107

0.75

HORNBY

Target

Over Valued

Information Technology & Hardware
Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ARM HOLDINGS

921.00

469.00

971.50

Neutral

Sell

569

0.74

CSR

482.30

194.60

492.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

1308

1.17

FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES

Target

Beta

65.00

23.50

83.25

Neutral

Sell

50

0.90

493.20

383.50

716.00

Neutral

Neutral

523

1.08

SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS

147.30

139.20

174.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

669

0.95

WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS

177.00

165.75

230.00

Neutral

Sell

-524

0.91

©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

02 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 9 of 17

Under Valued

Insurance
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

1332.00

1019.00

1359.00

Neutral

Sell

-736

0.54

AMLIN

423.50

312.90

431.50

Neutral

Sell

-3097

0.46

BEAZLEY

208.70

132.50

215.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

2609

0.59

CATLIN GROUP

521.00

399.00

540.00

Neutral

Buy

772

0.30

HISCOX

550.00

371.30

562.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2089

0.48

ADMIRAL GROUP

JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON

851.00

659.00

864.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

2934

0.31

RSA INSURANCE GROUP

116.40

97.65

136.30

Neutral

Strong Buy

1698

0.41

NOVAE GROUP

455.00

345.00

475.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

1924

0.47

Over Valued

Leisure & Hotels
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

2304.00

1900.00

2628.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3864

1.00

ENTERPRISE INNS

106.10

55.50

114.70

Neutral

Sell

82

1.59

TUI TRAVEL

325.60

158.00

330.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

781

0.99

FULLER SMITH 'A'

820.00

700.00

820.00

Neutral

Sell

653

0.38

GREENE KING

702.00

474.30

723.50

Neutral

Sell

616

0.90

LADBROKES

225.80

152.70

243.10

Neutral

Sell

181

0.94

2007.00

1396.63

2022.00

Neutral

Sell

1627

1.17

CARNIVAL

ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.

569.00

455.40

569.00

Neutral

Neutral

610

1.38

MITCHELLS & BUTLERS

326.00

217.40

350.10

Neutral

Sell

300

1.08

BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM.

143.60

91.90

162.60

Neutral

Sell

104

1.25

10.50

5.61

13.12

Neutral

Strong Buy

50

1.25

165.00

111.00

177.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

503

1.00
0.74

PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP

467.90

269.20

467.90

Neutral

Sell

317

WETHERSPOON (JD)

537.50

371.30

548.50

Neutral

Buy

737

0.68

WHITBREAD

2568.00

1786.00

2692.00

Neutral

Sell

1925

0.99

WILLIAM HILL

369.90

239.02

411.17

Neutral

Sell

260

0.86

MARSTON'S

141.50

94.40

143.00

Neutral

Sell

30

1.19

Over Valued

Life Assurance
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

AVIVA

296.20

255.30

388.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

1165

1.25

CHESNARA

235.00

155.25

235.00

Neutral

Buy

351

0.70

LEGAL & GENERAL

172.70

106.00

173.60

Neutral

Strong Buy

293

1.70

OLD MUTUAL

202.70

138.70

211.40

Neutral

Sell

172

1.57

PRUDENTIAL

1065.00

660.00

1155.00

Neutral

Sell

944

1.70

508.00

303.40

537.00

Neutral

Sell

425

0.85

ST.JAMES'S PLACE

©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

02 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 10 of 17

Under Valued

Media & Entertainment
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

BLOOMSBURY PBL.

115.00

102.00

146.50

Neutral

Sell

-537

0.35

BRITISH SKY BCAST.GROUP

883.00

635.50

899.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

1521

0.54

45.50

28.50

60.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

137

1.01

DAILY MAIL 'A'

709.50

363.50

722.00

Sell

Strong Buy

2947

1.12

EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR

966.50

672.50

966.50

Sell

Strong Buy

6523

0.98

INFORMA

526.50

340.00

528.00

Neutral

Sell

-65

1.53

ITE GROUP

272.90

180.00

289.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

213

1.44

ITV

129.40

69.45

132.30

Neutral

Strong Buy

1170

1.54
1.25

CENTAUR MEDIA

JOHNSTON PRESS

15.00

4.88

15.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

1540

1184.00

1111.00

1294.00

Neutral

Buy

282

0.63

75.00

36.25

82.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

2312

0.79

269.00

265.00

377.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

778

0.16

32.96

26.85

33.32

Neutral

Sell

-537

0.52

STV GROUP

126.75

81.50

146.88

Buy

Sell

242

0.78

ST.IVES

135.00

67.50

139.25

Neutral

Strong Buy

667

1.49

94.00

25.50

121.25

Neutral

Sell

-243

1.57

UBM

704.50

511.00

788.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1596

1.31

WILMINGTON GROUP

161.75

82.00

164.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1183

0.85

WPP

1049.00

743.00

1092.00

Neutral

Sell

-454

1.34

HIBU

0.38

0.26

4.15

Neutral

Strong Buy

719

1.06

PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS

TRINITY MIRROR

Under Valued

Mining
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

1692.00

1664.00

2412.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2869

1.75

ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP

238.00

221.25

320.00

Neutral

Buy

274

0.99

ANTOFAGASTA

984.00

984.00

1381.00

Neutral

Neutral

942

1.42

1915.00

1681.00

2236.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3423

1.45

ANGLO AMERICAN

BHP BILLITON

290.90

240.84

564.35

Neutral

Sell

41

2.04

RANDGOLD RESOURCES

LONMIN

5680.00

4596.00

7775.00

Neutral

Sell

2880

0.34

RIO TINTO

3085.00

2715.50

3757.00

Neutral

Buy

3437

1.51

4.88

3.75

22.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

165

0.89

832.50

1298.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2414

2.21

785.80

1205.00

Neutral

Sell

1012

1.87

COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
XSTRATA

1068.00

Under Valued

Oil & Gas
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

1129.00

1000.50

1481.00

Neutral

Neutral

1238

0.81

BP

459.90

391.95

475.90

Neutral

Strong Buy

1570

1.05

CAIRN ENERGY

273.50

248.20

349.00

Neutral

Sell

-42

1.32

BG GROUP

FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
©

7.95

7.74

12.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

14

0.91

888.50

688.00

954.00

Neutral

Sell

465

1.32
1.36

75.75

55.00

162.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

304

388.70

321.30

403.90

Buy

Sell

294

1.44

2185.00

2039.00

2366.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

11595

0.86

375.50

254.90

404.30

Buy

Sell

253

0.52

1231.00

1138.00

1557.00

Neutral

Sell

925

1.06

866.50

651.50

875.50

Neutral

Neutral

828

1.36

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

02 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 11 of 17

Over Valued

Personal Care & Household Products
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

MCBRIDE

118.75

102.70

146.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

262

PZ CUSSONS

403.40

297.20

415.60

Neutral

Sell

331

0.69

4718.00

3300.00

4812.00

Neutral

Neutral

4763

0.36

RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP

Target

0.83

Over Valued

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

0.44

0.37

3.88

Buy

Strong Buy

4

1.01

3299.50

2591.00

3299.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

6196

0.48

BTG

356.80

300.30

423.00

Neutral

Sell

187

0.62

DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS

749.50

418.33

770.00

Neutral

Buy

898

0.26

1538.50

1317.50

1538.50

Neutral

Sell

1003

0.49

OXFORD BIOMEDICA

1.55

1.55

5.80

Strong Buy

Buy

2

0.64

PHYTOPHARM

1.55

1.50

12.75

Buy

Sell

1

0.94

2004.00

1727.00

2153.00

Neutral

Sell

1217

0.65

ARK THERAPEUTICS GP.
ASTRAZENECA

GLAXOSMITHKLINE

SHIRE

Target

Beta

SKYEPHARMA

46.50

33.50

101.50

Neutral

Sell

-116

0.72

VERNALIS

22.75

21.63

27.38

Neutral

Strong Buy

48

0.89

Under Valued

Real Estate
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

BIG YELLOW GROUP

355.00

274.50

387.50

Neutral

Sell

-537

1.15

BRITISH LAND

543.50

467.10

585.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

1521

1.03

33.00

22.75

34.25

Sell

Strong Buy

137

0.82

865.00

595.00

865.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2947

0.69

DERWENT LONDON

2152.00

1689.00

2239.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

6523

1.21

DEVELOPMENT SECS.

150.50

121.75

176.00

Neutral

Sell

-65

0.97

GRAINGER

135.80

83.10

140.60

Neutral

Strong Buy

213

1.54

GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES

495.90

345.60

514.00

Sell

Strong Buy

1170

1.06
1.16

CAPITAL & REGIONAL
CLS HOLDINGS

HAMMERSON

491.90

404.50

525.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1540

HELICAL BAR

236.75

164.00

249.75

Neutral

Buy

282

0.75

LAND SECURITIES GROUP

829.00

704.00

849.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2312

1.15

INTU PROPERTIES

334.30

305.00

366.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

778

1.08

MCKAY SECURITIES

145.00

125.00

145.00

Neutral

Sell

-537

0.72

MUCKLOW (A & J) GROUP

372.00

311.25

390.00

Neutral

Sell

242

0.42

PRIMARY HEALTH PROPS.

331.00

312.00

364.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

667

0.35

67.00

32.50

70.00

Sell

Sell

-243

1.17
0.74

QUINTAIN ESTATES & DEV.
SAVILLS

543.00

300.80

599.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1596

SHAFTESBURY

581.50

482.20

597.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

1183

1.03

SEGRO

254.30

209.40

271.00

Neutral

Sell

-454

1.70

ST MODWEN PROPS.

257.50

145.50

280.20

Neutral

Strong Buy

719

1.55

TOWN CENTRE SECURITIES

200.00

147.00

215.00

Neutral

Sell

-13

1.04

UNITE GROUP

321.00

180.25

330.00

Neutral

Sell

33

1.75

1.38

1.00

3.00

Sell

Sell

-995

1.02

343.20

213.25

363.20

Neutral

Sell

0

1.02

WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP

©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

02 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 12 of 17

Under Valued

Software & Computer Services
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ANITE

125.70

111.00

162.00

Neutral

Neutral

123

0.76

2264.00

1469.00

2322.00

Neutral

Sell

1324

1.40

AVEVA GROUP

Target

Beta

COMPUTACENTER

540.00

292.40

543.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

1363

1.00

KOFAX

317.25

240.00

325.75

Neutral

Neutral

325

1.12

25.50

18.25

25.50

Neutral

Neutral

25

0.83

MICRO FOCUS INTL.

685.50

426.17

702.00

Neutral

Buy

983

0.79

PHOENIX IT GROUP

144.50

135.00

231.75

Buy

Strong Buy

316

0.74

79.00

70.25

89.00

Neutral

Sell

-90

0.52

1945.00

1275.00

1970.00

Neutral

Neutral

2099

0.77

342.70

247.70

352.10

Neutral

Buy

419

0.72

INNOVATION GROUP

RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP

Over Valued

Speciality & Other Finance
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ABERDEEN ASSET MAN.

429.20

237.30

441.90

Neutral

Sell

164

BREWIN DOLPHIN

206.50

136.30

222.00

Neutral

Sell

121

0.71

10700.00

9250.00

11105.00

Neutral

Sell

9726

0.83
0.97

CAMELLIA

Target

Beta
1.09

CHARLES STANLEY GROUP

375.00

247.50

377.50

Neutral

Sell

167

CHARLES TAYLOR

182.50

132.00

190.00

Neutral

Sell

96

0.68

CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP

1052.00

673.50

1107.00

Neutral

Sell

155

0.87

F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT

104.40

64.75

110.40

Neutral

Neutral

100

0.89

3.17

0.55

3.70

Sell

Strong Buy

28

0.68

HENDERSON GROUP

159.30

90.55

171.00

Neutral

Sell

47

1.44

ICAP

290.40

281.40

396.50

Buy

Sell

190

1.07
1.68

HELPHIRE GROUP

INTERMEDIATE CAPITAL GP.

423.10

227.30

426.60

Neutral

Sell

197

INVESTEC

459.00

310.40

513.50

Neutral

Sell

79

1.55

1306.00

930.00

1411.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3855

1.12

LONDON STOCK EX.GROUP

89.15

63.25

134.80

Neutral

Neutral

91

1.32

RATHBONE BROTHERS

MAN GROUP

1459.00

1151.00

1532.00

Neutral

Sell

1102

0.74

SCHRODERS

2108.00

1166.00

2160.00

Neutral

Sell

1235

1.31

SCHRODERS NV

1726.00

966.00

1729.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

4143

1.27

©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

02 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 13 of 17

Over Valued

Support Services
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ACAL

235.50

157.75

242.50

Neutral

Buy

293

0.93

AGGREKO

1782.00

1557.00

2400.00

Neutral

Sell

1290

1.04

AMEC

1056.00

923.00

1172.00

Neutral

Neutral

1132

1.04

586.50

212.20

594.00

Neutral

Sell

316

1.61

1088.00

793.50

1106.00

Neutral

Sell

662

0.48

530.00

317.00

530.00

Sell

Strong Buy

801

0.77

1295.00

990.00

1320.00

Neutral

Sell

820

0.55

UK MAIL GROUP

379.00

214.00

380.00

Neutral

Buy

443

0.38

CAPITA

899.00

602.00

912.00

Neutral

Sell

520

0.50

51.00

25.34

53.50

Neutral

Buy

67

0.78

COMPASS GROUP

840.50

616.00

846.00

Neutral

Sell

604

0.74

BERENDSEN

785.00

462.00

785.00

Sell

Buy

977

1.04

DE LA RUE

976.00

885.50

1075.00

Neutral

Sell

601

#NA

ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL

COMMUNISIS

Target

Beta

DIGNITY

1420.00

803.50

1435.00

Neutral

Sell

796

0.21

DIPLOMA

560.50

417.00

627.50

Neutral

Sell

484

0.95

ELECTROCOMP.

251.00

195.20

265.00

Neutral

Buy

319

1.03

FILTRONA

728.00

428.00

728.00

Sell

Sell

345

1.10

G4S

291.40

240.00

307.50

Neutral

Neutral

291

0.58

96.45

66.40

100.00

Neutral

Buy

121

1.10

HOMESERVE

200.50

137.50

252.50

Buy

Strong Buy

486

0.93

INTERSERVE

499.30

270.10

502.50

Neutral

Buy

690

1.27

3393.00

2406.00

3440.00

Neutral

Sell

1445

0.78

JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP

43.38

26.50

44.63

Neutral

Strong Buy

94

1.17

MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.

31.25

21.25

39.38

Neutral

Strong Buy

55

0.71

MENZIES (JOHN)

714.50

542.00

789.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1304

1.43

MICHAEL PAGE INTL.

421.80

341.40

485.00

Neutral

Sell

319

1.41

MITIE GROUP

280.80

253.90

300.80

Neutral

Buy

341

0.55

91.50

91.50

160.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

239

0.35

PAYPOINT

887.50

605.00

901.00

Neutral

Sell

688

0.70

PREMIER FARNELL

223.10

153.20

236.30

Neutral

Buy

284

1.32

REGUS

158.70

82.65

163.30

Neutral

Sell

107

1.45

RENTOKIL INITIAL

100.20

69.40

100.20

Neutral

Sell

56

1.25

REXAM

527.50

394.28

527.50

Neutral

Buy

633

0.91

HAYS

INTERTEK GROUP

OFFICE2OFFICE

RICARDO

420.00

304.50

431.00

Neutral

Buy

469

0.85

ROBERT WALTERS

223.00

176.25

264.63

Neutral

Buy

309

1.23

RPC GROUP

397.50

348.30

477.00

Neutral

Buy

533

0.78

RPS GROUP

267.30

197.00

272.40

Neutral

Sell

246

1.50

SERCO GROUP

627.00

509.50

634.00

Neutral

Sell

577

0.59

SHANKS GROUP

78.50

75.80

98.95

Neutral

Strong Buy

168

1.46

SPEEDY HIRE

48.75

22.25

48.75

Sell

Neutral

52

1.25

147.00

70.00

149.00

Neutral

Sell

51

0.55

57.00

39.50

59.00

Neutral

Neutral

61

0.92

343.00

234.75

354.88

Neutral

Strong Buy

620

0.86

74.50

42.00

75.00

Sell

Strong Buy

182

0.78

TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG

©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

02 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 14 of 17

Over Valued

Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

278.00

200.70

281.00

Neutral

Buy

310

41.94

27.28

42.63

Neutral

Strong Buy

78

0.69

702.50

390.80

702.50

Neutral

Sell

586

0.53

Beta
0.90

81.20

67.00

85.20

Neutral

Buy

119

1.24

1001.00

677.00

1017.00

Neutral

Sell

663

0.11

186.60

154.45

191.25

Neutral

Sell

158

0.54

Under Valued

Transport
Stock

Target

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BBA AVIATION

257.50

178.00

267.40

Neutral

Sell

193

BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS.

395.00

309.50

425.00

Neutral

Buy

444

0.98

CLARKSON

1555.00

1150.00

1555.00

Sell

Sell

1441

0.81

EASYJET

1080.00

471.00

1080.00

Neutral

Sell

652

0.74

201.10

175.70

260.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

542

0.90

FISHER(JAMES)& SONS

1035.00

535.00

1045.00

Neutral

Sell

382

0.77

GO-AHEAD GROUP

1471.00

1086.00

1513.00

Neutral

Buy

1807

0.89

FIRST GROUP

Target

Beta
1.29

NATIONAL EXPRESS

204.90

164.50

240.90

Neutral

Buy

243

1.33

NORTHGATE

312.75

159.60

350.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

589

1.40

STAGECOACH GROUP

310.60

230.40

319.60

Neutral

Buy

355

0.89

43.75

31.00

78.50

Neutral

Sell

-43

0.90

WINCANTON

Under Valued

Utilities
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

CENTRICA

367.70

306.30

367.70

Neutral

Buy

489

0.46

NATIONAL GRID

765.00

630.50

765.00

Neutral

Neutral

839

0.49

PENNON GROUP

623.00

598.00

796.00

Neutral

Buy

779

0.58

SSE

1484.00

1294.00

1488.00

Neutral

Buy

1746

0.42

SEVERN TRENT

1712.00

1507.00

1796.00

Neutral

Sell

1511

0.34

708.50

594.00

747.50

Neutral

Sell

668

0.50

UNITED UTILITIES GROUP

©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

Target

Beta

02 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

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