Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| April 2, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam – Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report
Tuesday| April 2, 2013

Highlights
US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell by 2.9 pts to 51.3-level in last month. Japan’s Average Cash Earnings declined by 0.7 percent in February. India’s HSBC Markit Manufacturing PMI declined to 52-mark in March. US Construction Spending gained by 1.2 percent in February. Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of unfavorable economic data from the US indicating slowdown in the global economic growth. US Final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 0.3 points to 54.6-mark in March as against a rise of 54.9-level in February. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI fell by 2.9 points to 51.3-level in March from rise of 54.2-mark a month ago. Construction Spending gained by 1.2 percent in February as compared to decline of 2.1 percent in prior month. ISM Manufacturing Prices dropped by 7 points to 54.5-mark in March with respect to 61.5level a month earlier. India’s HSBC Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined by 2.2 points to 52-mark in March as against a rise of 54.2-level in February.

Market Highlights (% change)
Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE** KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr’13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar’13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne** CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5704.4 18864.8 14572.85 1562.2 15338.7 1996.0 58497.8 12135.0 97.07 1600.00 2791.30 7533.25 102.09 Prev. day 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 0.2 -2.1 -0.2 0.3 -1.3 -1.4 0.0

as on April 1, 2013 WoW 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.7 -2.0 0.9 5.9 -0.1 3.6 -0.3 -2.6 -1.3 0.6 MoM 0.1 -0.1 3.2 2.9 -1.3 -1.0 4.6 1.4 7.7 1.6 -1.9 -4.0 0.4 YoY 10.1 3.1 10.9 10.9 -4.0 2.8 -9.3 20.3 -5.6 -3.2 -12.7 -10.7 0.9

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.3 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments in the early part of the trade which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of unfavorable economic data from US coupled with US equities trading on a negative note. The currency touched an intra-day low of 82.81 and closed at 82.90 on Monday.

Source: Reuters th (** Prices as on 28 March as international markets closed on eve of Easter Monday & Indian currency market closed on account of banking closure)

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR April’13 Futures (NSE) ** US $ / INR April’13 Futures (MCX-SX) ** 82.90 54.16 54.68 54.67 Prev. day -0.3 0.2 -0.05 -0.05 WoW -0.1 0.2 0.65 0.64

as on April 1, 2013 MoM 0.7 1.4 -0.06 -0.06 YoY 4.3 -6.1 6.67 6.66

Dollar/INR
On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee appreciated marginally by 0.1 percent. The currency appreciated on account of selling of dollars from exporters and custodian banks. Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on the back of strength in the DX. The currency touched a weekly high of and closed at 54.28 against dollar on Thursday. For the month of March 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.9,124.30 crores ($1,675.48 million) as on 28th March 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.55,622.40 crores ($10,310.10 million) till 28th March 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments. Additionally, decline in manufacturing PMI which is at sixteen month low will add downside pressure on the currency. Weakness in the DX will cushion sharp fall In the Indian Rupee.

Technical Chart – USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR April’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for April 2, 2013 Support 54.55/54.40 Resistance 54.85/55.05

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Currencies Daily Report
Tuesday| April 2, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 0.2 percent in yesterday’s trade on the back of weakness in Dollar Index (DX). However, sharp rise in euro was capped on account of weak global market sentiments coupled with the worries over Cyprus deal. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.2867 and closed at 1.2847 against dollar on Monday. Outlook In today’s session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with worries over Cyprus bailout. Further, expectation of unfavorable economic data from euro zone may add downside pressure on the currency. Weakness in the DX will cushion sharp fall in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR April’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 69.70/69.40 70.30/70.60 valid for April 2, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR April ’13 Futures (NSE)** Euro / INR April’13 Futures (MCXSX)** 1.2847 69.86 70.0 70.0 Prev. day 0.2 0.1 -0.56 -0.56

as on April 1, 2013 WoW 0.0 0.0 -0.17 -0.20 MoM -1.4 2.2 -2.47 -2.41 YoY -3.7 -2.8 2.41 2.40

Source: Reuters (** Prices as on 26th March 2013 as markets were closed on eve of Holi festival)

Technical Chart – Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.17 percent in yesterday’s trade on the back weak Dollar Index. However, sharp appreciation in the currency was capped due to weak global market sentiments. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5241 and closed at 1.5227 against dollar on Monday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note today on the back of expectation of positive economic data from United Kingdom coupled with weakness in DX. However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped as a result of weak global market sentiments. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR April ’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for April 2, 2013 Support 82.60/82.40 Resistance 82.95/83.20

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR April’13 Futures (NSE)** GBP / INR April ’13 Futures (MCX-SX)** 1.5227 82.466 82.74 Prev. day 0.17 0.047 -0.20

as on April 1, 2013

WoW 0.4 0.07 0.14

MoM 0.7 0.03 -0.39

YoY -4.9 2.21 1.50

82.74

-0.21

0.15

-0.40

1.49

Source: Reuters (** Prices as on 26th March 2013 as markets were closed on eve of Holi festival)

Technical Chart – Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report
Tuesday| April 2, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated by 1 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of unfavorable manufacturing data from the country. Japan’s Monetary Base was at 19.8 percent in March as against a rise of 15 percent in February. Average Cash Earnings declined by 0.7 percent in February from earlier rise of 0.1 percent a month ago. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 93.16 and closed at 93.21 against dollar on Monday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, decline in average cash earnings data from the country will also exert downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR April ’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for April 2, 2013 Support 57.80/57.50 Resistance 58.30/58.60
Source: Telequote

as on April 1, 2013 Last 93.21 0.576 58.04 58.04 Prev day -1.0 0.24 0.09 0.11 WoW -1.0 0.70 1.60 1.62 MoM -0.3 -1.92 -2.23 -2.21 YoY 12.6 -6.01 -5.91 -5.89

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR April’13 Futures (NSE) ** JPY 100 / INR April’13 Futures (MCX-SX)**

Source: Reuters (** Prices as on 26th March 2013 as markets were closed on eve of Holi festival)

Technical Chart – JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on April 2, 2013
Indicator Average Cash Earnings y/y German Prelim CPI m/m Spanish Unemployment Change Halifax HPI m/m Spanish Manufacturing PMI Italian Manufacturing PMI Manufacturing PMI Net Lending to Individuals m/m Unemployment Rate Factory Orders m/m Country Japan Europe Europe UK Europe Europe UK UK Europe US Time (IST) 7:00am All Day 12:30pm 2 -4
nd th

Actual -0.7% -

Forecast -0.1% 0.4% 30.2K 0.2% 46.2 45.4 48.9 0.9B 12.0% 3.1%

Previous 0.1% 0.6% 59.4K 0.5% 46.8 45.8 47.9 0.6B 11.9% -2.0%

Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium

12:45pm 1:15pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 7:30pm

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