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Obama will take on immigration reform this month . and advocates couldn't be happier. Think Progress Online. “Fixing . the word is out. and it's good news for anybody eager for lawmakers to tackle an issue that's troubled the country for years. “Obama to Introduce Immigration Reform Bill in 2013”) President Obama AT: Thumpers reiterated his call for comprehensive immigration reform during an interview on Meet The Press. Administration officials have hinted that Obama will “begin an all-out drive for comprehensive immigration reform. We just didn't know how soon.theatlanticwire. Obama is pushing CIR – it’s the top priority Volsky 12/30/12 (Igor.com/politics/2013/01/obamas-push-immigration-reform-starts-now/60525/ Everybody knew that Obama was going to tackle immigration reform in his second term.” Obama said.Obama is pushing for immigration reform – The Atlantic 1-1-13 (“Obama’s Push For Immigration Reform Starts Now”) http://www. claiming that our broken immigration is a top priority .” Cabinet secretaries and lawmakers from both parties are already holding initial meetings to iron out the details of the proposal and Obama will to push for a broad bill.its fast.No thumpers. as well as gun control. the effort will be a top goal in his second term. A fresh report from The Huffington Post's Elise Foley and Sam Stein quotes anonymous administration officials and Democratic aides in explaining that the president is going to move fast on immigration reform. The Obama administration’s “social media blitz” will start in January and is expected “to tap the same organizations and unions that helped get a record number of Latino voters to reelect the president. after Congress addresses the fiscal cliff. I will introduce legislation in the first year to get that done. Well. including seeking a path to citizenship” for 11 million undocumented immigrants.
huffingtonpost. not just on immigration reform but gun control laws as well. The official.” Obama told business leaders last month. That fight also left him politically bruised.Fiscal issues won’t drain momentum Foley and Stein 1/2/13 (Elise and Sam. An Obama administration official said the president plans to push for immigration reform this January. who have privately expressed fears that Obama's second term will be drowned out in seemingly unending showdowns between parties. “I want to send a very clear message to people here. We are not going to play that game next year.” he said.com/2013/01/02/obama-immigration-reform_n_2398507. an expiring continuing resolution to fund the government and a debt ceiling that will soon be hit. who spoke about legislative plans only on condition of anonymity. The White House plans to push forward quickly. we’ll get them. Obama won’t be drawn in The Washington Post 12/31/12 (After a Fiscal Cliff Deal. The timeframe is likely to be cheered by Democrats and immigration reform advocates alike. The just-completed fiscal cliff deal is giving way to a two-month deadline to resolve delayed sequestration cuts. What Next?) “I think if we insist on changes like that.html Despite a bruising fiscal cliff battle that managed to set the stage for an even more heated showdown that will likely take place in a matter of months. “Obama’s Immigration Reform Push To Begin This Month”) http://www. President Barack Obama is planning to move full steam ahead with the rest of his domestic policy agenda. said that coming standoffs over deficit reduction are unlikely to drain momentum from other priorities. Obama has insisted he will not get drawn into another negotiation over the debt ceiling like the one that resulted in the nation’s first bond downgrade and damaged consumer confidence in 2011 . if Democrats even agree to bargain. That is. .
while potential 2016 presidential aspirant Sen.¶ That more moderate tone from the GOP is what the November election has wrought. a longtime immigration reform advocate. Republican polling group Resurgent Republic offered a searing critique of the GOP's political strategy of pumping up turnout among white voters. “Obama’s Immigration Reform Push To Begin This Month”) http://www. John McCain of Arizona and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina – has added freshman Sens. the lawmaker who co-wrote a 2005 comprehensive immigration reform measure with now Sen. Advocates have vowed to keep pushing for reform. For the next two decades. respectively. Nobody is talking about how [Arizona's controversial immigration law] should be the standard applied across the land. but lawmakers on both sides suddenly see an opportunity for what could be their most expansive achievement of 2013. By 2005.¶ Members of the House have seen movement." said Angela Kelley. "Trying to win a national election by gaining a larger and larger share of a smaller and smaller portion of the electorate is a losing political proposition. "If we wait until 2014.¶ And those numbers of minority voters are only going to grow. Bush's push for a new round of immigration reform. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) of Florida."¶ House Speaker John Boehner (R) of Ohio signaled a shift when he told ABC News a day after the election that "a comprehensive approach [to immigration] is long overdue. the Democratic aide said. though.¶ In a postelection analysis and poll of Latino voters. and I'm confident that the president. but they're going to have a serious day of reckoning next election cycle.¶ Two tea party superstars – Senators Rubio . a "Gang of Eight" – led by longtime immigration reformers Sen. " Nobody is talking about selfdeportation. too. Luis Gutierrez (D) of Illinois. U when Boehner broke the so-called "Hastert Rule" and allowed the fiscal cliff bill to come for a vote without support from a majority of his Republican conference.¶ Perhaps just as important. others.'" the Democratic aide said."¶ Between 2008 and 2012. 'You must do this . Michael Bennett (D) of Colorado and Mike Lee (R) of Utah.¶ Yet with Election 2012 highlighting the electoral consequences of America's changing demographics. How reforms might take shape could be a major point of contention between the parties. Nobody is talking about vetoing the DREAM Act. Given opposition to immigration reform by many Tea Party Republicans. Raúl Labrador (R) of Idaho.¶ While Resurgent Republic's poll showed that Hispanics aren't singularly focused on immigration issues. arguing that the election was seen as something of a mandate for fixing the immigration system and Republicans won't be able to forget their post-election promises to work on a bill." wrote conservative pollster Whit Ayres and Jennifer Korn. You need to get this off the table soon.huffingtonpost. it's going to be election time.¶ "We are having wonderful conversations. As part of their efforts. "In the end. the proof that Boehner is willing to bypass them on major legislation is a good sign. vice president for immigration policy and advocacy at the Center for American Progress. myself."¶ Recent weeks have seen a flurry of activity on Capitol Hill. In the Senate. in which the GOP brass wasn't on board. 71 percent of Latinos and 73 percent of Asian-Americans backed Mr. the head of the right-leaning Hispanic Leadership Network. Obama – up four percentage points and 11 percentage points from 2008. can find the common ground to take care of this issue once and for all. "If something is of such importance that the GOP establishment [is] telling Boehner. the speaker could break the Hastert Rule again. the next year appears to be ripe for compromise. the Republican Party has a serious problem. Immigration reform will pass – Obama is pushing. "One thing clearly has changed.¶ The shift in the political conversation has been so dramatic that even a pathway to citizenship for some of the estimated 12 million undocumented immigrants in the United States – long rejected out of hand by most Republicans and some Democrats – could be part of the deal. Chuck Schumer (D) of New York and Republican Sens. CSM ‘12-28 [Christian Science Monitor "Immigration reform likely to be at the top of Congress’ agenda in 2013" -www. Republican politicians who favor immigration reform see the issue as primary: The GOP's message of conservative family values.rawstory. "They can procrastinate as long as they want.000 Latino voters will turn 18 every month."¶ That's a departure from previous immigration-reform attempts.¶ While GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney won 60 percent of white voters. making reform not only possible but also likely. they plan to remind Republican members of Congress about their presidential nominee's defeat among Latino and Asian voters. while Asian and Latino voters expanded a percentage point each to 3 percent and 10 percent.html Lofgren expressed hope that immigration reform would be able to get past partisan gridlock .com/rs/2012/12/28/immigration-reform-likely-to-be-at-the-top-of-congress-agenda-in-2013/] The momentum of President Obama's resounding victory in November's election – with a big push from Latinos and other minority groups – has catapulted immigration policy to the top of Washington's 2013 agenda." Representative Gutierrez says. And you know how efficient we are here during election time.¶ The past only reinforces the potential difficulties ahead. so I would not be surprised if when it came down to it he puts up a bill that he just allows to go through with a combination of Democratic and Republican votes. is that several leading lawmakers with near-pristine conservative credentials are also involved. " He already did it with this fiscal issue. "We're going to have a lot of near-death experiences with this issue. Republicans felt betrayed when Democrats stripped the enforcement provisions from a bill that offered citizenship to some 3 million illegal immigrants. adding an additional New Hampshire of voters to the US each year into the 2030s. top of the agenda.¶ The task is momentous. entrepreneurship. Marco Rubio (R) of Florida leads his own initiative. white voters shrank two percentage points to 72 percent of the electorate. GOP on board. in a recent research memo. the issue had become so politically toxic to conservatives that they blocked President George W. 50. an immigration lawyer who thundered into Congress in the tea party wave of 2010. In 1986." says Rep.com/2013/01/02/obama-immigration-reform_n_2398507.-elect Jeff Flake (R) of Arizona. and individual freedom won't reach Latino voters unless the immigration question is solved. without worrying about a majority of the majority.¶ "It has to be in 2013. "And while that wall is there.¶ "This is like a wall that stops the other issues from getting through. It involves weighing the wishes of industries from agriculture to high-tech.¶ "Republicans have run out of persuadable white voters. often by championing hard-line policies on immigration issues that turn off key Asian and Hispanic voters. but I'm pretty confident it's never going to go completely to a flatline." Lofgren said. as well as the sensitivities of opening the door to immigrant workers at a time when unemployment remains high." says Rep." which offers a path to citizenship for some young undocumented immigrants." the aide continued. respectively." says Rep. immigration reform is going to depend very much on whether Speaker [John] Boehner wants to do it or not. a majority of whom support a fix to the immigration system.The GOP will get in line Foley and Stein 1/2/13 (Elise and Sam." Good news for immigration advocates may have come Tuesday night.
" says Hector Sanchez. Bob Goodlatte (R) of Virginia and Representative Labrador of Idaho can provide cover to conservative lawmakers from the party's right flank." says Rep. vow to take the fight to those who stand in immigration reform's way in 2013. "If they are not with us."¶ Obama has publicly vowed to make immigration reform an immediate priority in his second term.¶ Latino advocacy groups and labor unions. he's the guy who got the voters who care most intensely about this. emboldened by the community's growing electoral power. one way or another. both of whom knocked out establishment Republican figures to win their seats – are going to be key players in any reform.¶ "The fact that you're going to have strong conservative voices helping lead this debate is going to be critical to solving it instead of using it as a political wedge . for example.¶ Some Democrats on the Hill are extending a friendly hand to the GOP . she says." says Rep. a path to citizenship for some illegal immigrants.¶ But a recent poll by George Washington University and Politico found 62 percent of Americans support a proposal that would allow illegal immigrants to earn citizenship over a period of several years. which could begin just on the other side of the "fiscal cliff" negotiations. When the Congressional Hispanic Caucus – which is entirely Democratic – offered its vision for immigration reform.¶ "This comprehensive immigration reform for the Latino community is personal. Republicans "aren't going to get the credit" for pushing immigration through. it served up principles rather than a specific bill.¶ But Democrats also know they are in a position of power. The fact that we've come out in record numbers in 2012 was personal. Only this summer." says Bruce Morrison.¶ For that reason.¶ It's notable that both Labrador and Rubio believe in." says Maria Teresa Kumar." which is a guarantee only of more illegal immigration unless the nation's borders are firmly secured and stringent workplace verification systems are put in place."¶ The president. a move received by Republicans as attempting to maximize common ground. after he directed immigration officials to defer deportation of some young illegal immigrants.¶ In the House. has political pressure to pursue immigration reform. He has already come up short once on immigration-reform promises: In 2009. but they "can still get the blame if they block" it. with 40 percent strongly supporting such a measure. a leading immigration reform advocate.and Lee. he said that a comprehensive immigration solution would be a top priority. .¶ "The president says that his biggest failure in the first term was not moving forward with immigration reform. incoming chairman of the Republican Study Committee. "The Latino community decided to give him a second chance. too. executive director of the Labor Council for Latin American Advancement. the involvement of House Judiciary chairman Rep.¶ Some conservatives say any form of citizenship given to illegal immigrants – no matter the conditions attached to it – constitutes an "amnesty. was he seen as making good on promises to the Latino community. Steve Scalise (R) of Louisiana. they aren't going to win the presidency again. 2014 may not look pretty with them. And that's a calculation that members of Congress don't understand. even while they leave open just who can get on that path. Only 35 percent opposed it.¶ Yet his first term also saw record numbers of undocumented immigrants deported. Zoe Lofgren (D) of California. executive director of Voto Latino. the largest and most conservative caucus in the House.¶ "He's the one who has the mandate on this subject . a former Democratic congressman from Connecticut who was involved in immigration reform efforts in the 1980s and early '90s.¶ "You've got a realization on the part of GOP leadership not just in the House but in the Republican Party writ large that if they don't do something about it.
the military's attempts to move to alternative energy are coming under new scrutiny. 12 (Annie." Catrina Rorke.many of whom hold vastly opposing views on national energy policy -. who leads the subcommittee with jurisdiction over military energy and environment issues. But as election-year politics ramp up and Republicans target the Obama administration for its clean energy programs. director of energy policy at the center-right American Action Forum. lawmakers were more concerned about where the solar panels being installed at military installations were made than with the policy behind the projects in the first place (E&E Daily. "New energy spending is new energy spending. The Pentagon's green push -. . 2011). “DEFENSE: Military's alt energy programs draw Republicans' ire. the department's most high-profile alternative energy advocate.won supporters from both sides of the aisle over the past year as leaders drew a clear line between the technologies and military might. which aims to educate Congress on military energy issues. 2/23/2012. They said that his priorities were misplaced. argued that spending on clean energy was taking money out of more important missions and hinted at a link between the Pentagon's green efforts and the prominence of former Silicon Valley clean-tech investors within the Obama administration. 2011).1 billion.” http://www. April 14.). you're the secretary of the Navy.net/public/Greenwire/2012/02/23/2 ) AT: Military Shields Suspicion is growing among Republican lawmakers that the Defense Department's efforts to move to renewable energy are more about politics than they are about saving lives and boosting security.DOD agent magnifies the link – perceived to be political manipulation and wasteful spending Snider. And at a subcommittee hearing with the Pentagon's top energy and environment officials last spring.including outfitting Marines and soldiers with solar gear. including "the strategic value of utilizing sustainable energy" (E&E Daily. as officials claim. "Obama is hiding new renewable energy bets at the Pentagon." The idea that the administration is using DOD as a more politically palatable vehicle for renewable energy investments is now reverberating across Capitol Hill. July 8. "You're not the secretary of the energy. At a budget hearing last week. testing aircraft and ships on biofuels and building renewable power plants at bases -." said Rep. no matter where it happens. took volley after volley from Republicans on the House Armed Services Committee. charging our Defense Department with major investments in 'low-emissions economic development' while cutting their budget by $5. Navy Secretary Ray Mabus. Randy Forbes (R-Va. E&E reporter. wrote in a blog post following the Obama administration's budget release last week.eenews.to last summer form the Defense Energy Security Caucus. Prime among the lawmakers' complaints was that the military is paying a higher price for some forms of alternative energy at a time when DOD proposes cutting weapons programs and reducing forces in order to meet budget mandates. Stories about how solar equipment allowed units in Afghanistan to carry fewer batteries and more ammunition helped prompt eight Republicans and 15 Democrats -. especially its investment in failed solar panel manufacturer Solyndra. even as Pentagon officials flatly deny the allegations.
No doubt White House planners regard delaying the trans-border section of the Keystone XL pipeline and approving the Gulf of Mexico portion as a stroke of savvy realpolitik. stoked by Republicans but shared by some Democrats." said. Shoulda. Empirics disprove winners win. it is probably not beyond the capacity of even the mildly educated to understand that the administration has shown little appetite to reregula te Wall Street and has AT: Winners Win done its part to inflate the fear premium through confrontational policies in the Persian Gulf . Edwards. a former adviser in the Clinton White House and the Senate."¶ "Effective leaders. some Democrats added. And as for the president’s claims that gasoline prices are determined byforces beyond the government’s control (speculation and unrest in the Middle East)."¶ The challenge for Mr. broaden the base. some of which had to be spent early on to push the economic stimulus bill through Congress with no Republican help. Obama's presidency is titled "Overreach.com/2012/11/12/us/politics/legacy-at-stake-obama-plans-broader-push-for-budget-deal.¶ Democrats said the White House's strategy of focusing both inside and outside of Washington was smart. Healthcare reform was eventually enacted." "We can lower the rates.html) Lesson 2: Political capital is not necessarily a renewable resource. since Mr." he added. mobile.¶ "This election is the second chance to be what he promised in 2008. Duberstein. Obama's meeting with labor leaders on Tuesday. which has raised about $40 million to urge lawmakers and their constituents to support a plan that combines spending cuts with new revenue. but only after an exhausting battle that eroded public support. A quick victory on healthcare reform would renew Obama’s political capital. it holds risks as well as potential rewards. “Coulda. Obama is to use his postelection leverage to persuade Republicans . was seen as an issue that the public cared about on a personal level. Even as voters re-elected Mr. Woulda: Lessons from Senate Climate Fail. Boehner persuade Republicans . but one has to wonder whether Democratic-leaning voters really are as gullible as this scheme implies."¶ The budget showdown is an opportunity. whose book on Mr. and was expected to unite Democrats from all regions.nrdc. but make sure you get out of Washington while you are doing that. President Obama has accrued no political capital from his energy policy from either the left or the right by the end of his first term. http://switchboard. dismissed such criticisms as shallow and generally wrong. Republican of Georgia and a leader of House conservatives. Edwards III. But like many." said Kenneth M. not a particularly strong leader. they've learned a lot. "exploit opportunities rather than create them.It’s empirical – energy policy is NEVER a win for Obama Eisler ’12 (4/2/12 (Matthew." Mr. a leading scholar of the presidency at Texas A & M University who is currently teaching at Oxford University. Winners win is wrong now. Romney.nytimes. NYTimes. drained political capital and created the Tea Party movement. a legislative naïf who does little to nurture personal relationships with potential allies . Public support for healthcare reform is slowly rebounding as some of the early benefits kick in and people realize that the forecasted Armageddon is not happening.xml That story line. close the loopholes.' "¶ For now. Obama is scheduled to leave next weekend on a diplomatic trip to Asia. Obama Is Ready to Go Beyond Beltway. Well. Yet Mr. I think. rather than recognizing that 'we've got to figure out ways to work together and it's not just what I want. and then there would be more success and more success. White House officials and Congressional leaders reassured environmentalists with their theory that success breeds success.org/blogs/dlashof/coulda_shoulda_woulda_lessons.AND Obama thinks its wrong so it can never be a win Calmes 11-12-12 (Jackie. Healthcare reform was popular. who voted for Mr.D.in short. a Reagan White House chief of staff. Obama. "He didn't understand the limits of what he could do. I’m sure this seemed energy and climate like a good idea at the time. Obama in 2008 and later expressed disappointment." said Representative Tom Price. holds that Mr. because it could quickly wane as Republicans look to the 2014 midterm elections. comprehensive way) and cheap fossil fuels (but not in ways benefiting American motorists in an election year). "And that was very naïve. those who said in surveys afterward that strong leadership was the most important quality for a president overwhelmingly chose Mr. . But this is occurring too slowly to rebuild Obama’s political capital in time to help push climate legislation across the finish line. In Debt Talks. "You want to avoid getting sucked into the Beltway inside-baseball games. and that is to break the gridlock in Washington. from the Energy and Resources Group at UC-Berkeley (Dan. partly because his December calendar is full of the traditional holiday parties.¶ Some of the business leaders the president will meet with on Wednesday are members of the new Fix the Debt coalition.” NRDC Switchboard Blog. at least. Edwards said. Research Fellow at the Center for Contemporary History and Policy at the Chemical Heritage Foundation”) Conservatives take President Obama’s rhetoric at face value. Obama is too passive and deferential to Congress. on "Fox News Sunday." said Joel Johnson. "You can still work toward solutions. That session will follow Mr.or to help Speaker John A. Ph. Progressives see the president as disingenuous ."¶ "They thought they could continuously create opportunities and they would succeed. very silly. when he had huge majorities in the House and Senate. "We can increase revenue without increasing the tax rates on anybody in this country. Committed both to alternative energy (but not in a rational. Perhaps the most fateful decision the Obama administration made early on was to move healthcare reform before legislation. Republican lawmakers say they may be open to raising the tax bill for some earners.that a tax compromise is in their party's political interest since most Americans favor compromise and higher taxes on the wealthy to reduce annual deficits. 2012. Travel plans are still sketchy. when the opposition typically takes seats from the president's party in Congress. and we'd build this advancing-tide theory of legislation . "But it seems like this is a replay of 2009 and 2010.¶ His first trip outside Washington to engage the public will come after Thanksgiving."¶ The president must use his leverage soon.¶ George C. and it’s too slow to matter Lashof 10 – director of the National Resource Defense Council's climate center.
Research Associate – Secure World Foundation and Senior Space Writer – Space. CleanTech. the mission will finally have a home.SPS links Obama has to push and it spends capital David 8 (Leonard. Hugely unpopular—no institutional advocate and expense problems make it toxic Day 8 (Dwayne A. But the military wants to dramatically lower the cost of delivering fuel to distant locations. . this is not to insult the fine work conducted by those who produced the NSSO space solar power study. "I think the Air Force has a legitimate stake in starting it. he added. Although NASA has a bad public record for cost overruns. coupled with an idealistic impression of its management compared to NASA. They all know that the economic case for space solar power is abysmal. at least at present. it's a home run kind of situation. But there does not appear. The other is an institutional avatar—one of the persistent policy challenges for SSP has been the fact that responsibility for it supposedly “falls through the cracks” because neither NASA nor the Department of Energy wants responsibility." Mankins explained. But the scale of this project is going to be enormous.. Peter Teets. which could possibly change the cost-benefit ratio." Teets told Space News.thespacereview. The military savior also theoretically solves some other problems for SSP advocates. “Knights in Shining Armor”. Virginia. Space activists tend to have little understanding of military space. expensive new program to be started. Distinguished Chair of the Eisenhower Center for Space and Defense Studies. and smart moves in terms of development cycles to bring clean energy from space to the Earth." Teets said. “Space-Based Solar Power .com/article/1147/1) If all this is true. Program Officer – Space Studies Board of the National Research Council. 5-15. they fail to realize that the military space program is currently in no better shape. Again. the DoD’s less-public record is far worse. produced by an organization that has no clout.. and military space has a bad reputation in Congress.aspx? ArticleId=69) Overall. President of Artemis Innovation Management Solutions.Harvesting Energy from Space”. who knows? It's going to take the President and a lot of political will to go forward with this. than NASA. that there are any fundamental physical barriers.. The Space Review. The majority of large military space acquisition programs have experienced major problems. "It's a noble effort. For instance. in many cases cost growth in excess of 100%. One is the need for deep pockets to foot the immense development costs. in Ashburn." said John Mankins. If the military takes on the SSP challenge. New knowledge and new systems concepts are needed in order to enable space based solar power.com/article. "But if we can find a way with continued technology development . The best estimates are that SSP will cost at least three times the cost per kilowatt hour of even relatively expensive nuclear power. "There's a whole range of science and technology challenges to be pursued. http://www. But it is nonsensical for members of the space activist community to claim that “the military supports space solar power” based solely on a study that had no money.. They accomplished an impressive amount of work without any actual resources. and in many cases worse shape. But there’s also another factor at work: naïveté.. LLC. whom many space activists have come to despise. http://www. why is the space activist community so excited about the NSSO study? That is not hard to understand. including closure on a business case for the idea.azocleantech. This could create a new agency . There remain uncertainties in SBSP." he told attendees of the meeting.com. pushing forward on SBSP "is a complex problem and one that lends itself to a wide variety of competing solutions. 6-9. said that SBSP must be economically viable with those economics probably not there today. which would never allow such a big.
This logic finds empirical support in vote-switching studies that indicate that presidents do direct lobbying efforts at these pivotal voters. these studies came to remarkably similar conclusions: individual presidents did not seem to matter very much in explaining legislators' voting behavior or lawmaking outcomes (but see Lockerbie and Borrelli 1989. n. these results indicate that Neustadt's "president-centered" perspective is incorrect (Bond and Fleisher 1990. Matthew Beckman shows that in addition to these pivotal voters. 197. David Brady and Craig Volden look at vote switching by members of Congress in successive Congresses on nearly identical legislation and also conclude that presidents do influence the votes of at least some legislators (1998. Neustadt writes from the president's perspective. But it is also that case that scholars often misconstrue Neustadt's analytic perspective. Dan Wood summarized. one could then presumably see how much of the unexplained variance might be attributed to presidents. In one of the most concerted efforts to model how bargaining takes place at the individual level. Shull and Shaw 1999). In fact. Presidential Studies Quarterly 39 no4 736-70) Small wonder. including party strength in Congress. 12. and various control variables related to time in office and political and economic context. the aggregate results reinforce Neustadt's recurring refrain that presidents are weak and that.” Sullivan concludes (1991. 1991). at critical junctures during the lawmaking sequence. With the baseline established. "[S]tudies that compare presidential success to some baseline fail to find evidence that perceptions of skill have systematic effects" (2008. Keith Krehbiel analyzes successive votes by legislators in the context of a presidential veto and finds "modest support for the sometimes doubted stylized fact of presidential power as persuasion" (1998. working under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt. "at the margins. and with positive legislative results. ‘9 (Matthew Dickinson. members of Congress run the risk that the president will call their bluff and turn elsewhere for the necessary votes." his case studies in PP also suggest that. the skill to bargain successfully becomes a foundation for presidential power even within the context of electorally determined opportunities. and the Future of Presidency Research. however. when dealing with Congress. 212). the president's electoral support and/or popular approval. Edwards 2000. But how? Scholars often argue that a president's most direct means of influence is to directly lobby certain members of Congress. Spatial models of legislative voting suggest that these lobbying efforts are most effective when presidents target the median. then. often through quid pro quo exchanges. Sullivan theorizes that presidents can reduce members of Congress's penchant for strategic bluffing and increase the likelihood of a legislative outcome closer to the president's preference. 184). 221-23).). 97-106). Nonetheless. within this limited bound. “Hence. his description of what presidents must do to influence policy making does not mean that he believes presidents are the dominant influence on that process. a president's power is "comparably limited" (Neustadt 1990. that initial efforts to find evidence of presidential power centered on explaining legislative outcomes in Congress. In his study of presidential lobbying on key votes on important domestic legislation during the 83rd (1953-54) through 108th (2003-04) Congresses. Sullivan shows that in a bargaining game with incomplete information regarding the preferences of the president and members of Congress.d. Terry Sullivan examines presidential archives containing administrative headcounts to identify instances in which members of Congress switched positions during legislative debate. . 125-36). presidents do strive to influence legislative outcomes. from initially opposing the president to supporting him in the final roll call (Sullivan 1988. He taught previously at Harvard University. Dickinson ‘9 ( poli sci prof middlebury.153-54). The misinterpretation of the findings as they relate to PP stems in part from scholars' difficulty in defining and operationalizing presidential influence (Cameron 2000b. where he also received his Ph. Similarly. after first establishing a baseline model that explained these outcomes on other factors. Fleisher. see also Bond. 1188). and whether individual presidents did better or worse than the model predicted. We All Want a Revolution: Neustadt. as George Edwards (1989) puts it. 127. In threatening to withhold support. New Institutionalism. These outcomes depend in part on legislators' success in bartering their potential support for the president's policy for additional concessions from the president. presidents also lobby leaders in both congressional parties in order to control what legislative alternatives make it onto the congressional agenda (more on this later)..Dickinson DICKINSON CONCLUDES NEG – prefer this evidence because it’s from a peer reviewed journal and isn’t just a random blog post." however. if Neustadt clearly recognizes that a president's influence in Congress is exercised mostly. and Krutz 1996. Dietz 2002. members of Congress's ideology. but without adopting a president-centered explanation of power. veto. As Richard Fleisher.D. 1990. By capitalizing on members' uncertainty regarding whether their support is necessary to form a winning coalition. and B. 105-6. Edwards 1989. Jon Bond. professor of political science at Middlebury College. there are a number of possible bargaining outcomes for a given distribution of legislative and presidential policy preferences. however. they often tried to estimate it indirectly. Because scholars found it difficult to directly and systematically measure presidential influence or "skill. These lobbying efforts are correlated with a greater likelihood that a president's legislative preferences will come to a vote (Beckmann 2008. To some scholars. Despite differences in modeling assumptions and measurements. and filibuster "pivots" within Congress.
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