<Show: NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT> <Date: April 5, 2013> <Time: 18:30:00> <Tran: 040501cb.

118> <Type: SHOW> <Head: NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for April 5, 2013, PBS> <Sect: News; International> <Byline: Susie Gharib, Tyler Mathisen, Hampton Pearson, John Harwood, Brian Shactman> <Guest: Michelle Girard, Peter Sorrentino, Christine Short> <Spec: Economy; Employment and Unemployment; Labor; Budget; Government; Policies; Politics; Business> <Time: 18:30:00>

ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and Susie Gharib, brought to you by --


SUSIE GHARIB, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Jobs jolt. An unexpectedly weak employment report raises doubts about the economy`s health and sends stocks and bond yields lower.

TYLER MATHISEN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Cuts coming. The president readies the budget proposal said to include controversial trims in Social Security and other entitlement programs.

GHARIB: And making his point. Meet the quirky entrepreneur who earns money sharpening pencils.

We have all that and more on this special jobs edition of NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.

Good evening, everyone.

A miserable March for jobs and, Tyler, what a nerve-wracking day for investors.

MATHISEN: It sure was, it was way worse earlier, and then ended on a bit of an up note.

But a huge disappointment. That`s how one investment strategist characterized the surprisingly weak jobs report.

The U.S. economy added just added 88,000 new jobs last month. That`s less than half as many as economists expected and less than third the pace in February. The employment rate dropped a tenth of a point to 7.6 percent, but only because so many people stopped looking for work.

The bleak report calls into question the health of the recovery, but investors didn`t wait for answers. They sold stocks and bought treasuries.

The Dow did bounce the day`s lows but finish down 41 points at 14,565 and change. The S&P gave up roughly seven points, 1553 the close there, and the NASDAQ was off 21 points.

As investors piled into bonds, the yield on the 10-year treasury closed at 1.71 percent. That`s its lowest close this year.

Hampton Pearson has our report.


HAMPTON PEARSON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voiceover): The downturn in the retail sector was one of the biggest drags on job growth. In March, 24,000 jobs were lost and in an industry that had seen job growth average 32,000 per month for the past six months. Leading economists point to the payroll tax hike and bad weather.

DIANE SWONK, MESIROW FINANCIAL CHIEF: We know same-store retail sales were very weak during the month of March with 20 to 30 degree below normal average temperatures. And where you saw the job losses in clothing and apparel, many retailers having to discount now spring apparel because they couldn`t sell that spring apparel.

PEARSON: In addition to the retail sector shedding 24,000 jobs, manufacturers cut 3,000, after adding 19,000 jobs in February. The financial services lost 2,000 workers.

The unemployment rate went down to 7.6 percent. But that`s because at least half a million people simply gave up looking for work. People like Debbie Graham -- she went back to school and got a degree in human development. But one year later, she`s not landed full-time employment, just lots of frustrating job interviews. >

DEBBIE GRAHAM, LOOKING FOR FULL TIME WORK: I called it a waiting game, because you go on interviews and you wait for them to call you. No call.

PEARSON: The Postal Service was the biggest government job cutter, losing some 12,000 employees. Economists say we`re just beginning to see the impact of the sequester, those across the board federal budget cuts.

JARED BERNSTEIN, CENTER ON BUDGET AND POLICY PRIORITIES: Some of the furloughs are going to start kicking in this month in April. So I think in coming months, you`ll see more of that. I think it`s actually exactly the wrong medicine for an economy that`s already too weak from a labor market perspective. But it probably is coming.

PEARSON (on camera): Even those with jobs are watching the spending, that`s because wage growth in the last 12 months is less than inflation -- another potential drag on consumer spending and an economic recovery still moving at a snail`s pace.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Hampton Pearson in Washington.


GHARIB: Joining us with more analysis on those job numbers, as well as the economy, Michelle Girard. She`s senior economist at RBS.

So, Michelle, what`s your take on this jobs report? Is this a temporary blip or is this the beginning of more bad news of people looking for work?

MICHELLE GIRARD, RBS SENIOR ECONOMIST: Well, you know, I don`t think that the economy and certainly the labor market is as weak as these numbers would suggest. But I do think it suggests that we, you know, those great numbers we had seen around the turn of the year are probably not going to be, you know -- it`s not going to be the case we`re going to see the labor market performing a lot better this year than last year. It`s our view that we have seen this pattern, we get strong -- periods of stronger numbers and periods of softer numbers. It looks like that`s what we`re seeing.

The idea that we could have an upside breakout in growth or the labor market, I think this morning`s report really dashed that.

MATHISEN: How, Michelle, could so many of the analysts have gotten it so wrong? The consensus was 200,000 jobs.

GIRARD: My own forecast --


MATHISEN: You guys weren`t even halfway close.

GIRARD: My own forecast included, unfortunately, Tyler.

I`ll tell you, there was -- and this is what makes that March puzzling. And this is why I think you have to probably take it with a grain of salt and like what we like to do, look at the trends. The truth is Q1 average, the average jobs we saw in first quarter are not that much different that what we had seen over in the fourth quarter. I think that`s probably again more signal of the things being the same than different.

But I`ll tell you, like I was saying the number of people filing for unemployment benefits was down. We had some anecdotal evidence that firms are really hiring in March. I mean, there was reason to think that the labor market was as strong in March as it was in February. That`s why we had the numbers forecasting.

GHARIB: You know -- but, you know, Michelle, this headline is going to impact people. I`m talking about Americans because there`s been this perception that everything is coming up roses. Jobs have been up. Home prices have been up. Stocks have been up.

So what does this do to the feeling that wealth effect we talk about? Does this undermine confidence?

GIRARD: Yes. Susie, I think that`s exactly it. There was a feeling like, wow, maybe we`re finally getting the kind of growth that we have been waiting for, for so long, or getting the upward breakout and we can get better than, you know, 2.5 percent. The labor market will finally start to turn in the kind of performance we usually see in a recovery.

And that`s what this morning`s report I think said to me is that, you know, all of that hope I just think was probably unfounded. It really is going to continue to be a slow growth recovery whether we`re talking about the labor market or the economy. And I think in that sense, it is kind of a disappointment for those of us who were hoping something more was going on.

MATHISEN: What do you think happened in March? I mean, some of the other data that had come out in recent days had been very checkered, ups and downs and sort of softening. What did you think happened? And you just said -- you think there`s slow growth for the rest of the year. Put a number on that for me.

GIRARD: Well, first of all, the first quarter we`re looking at growth of close to 4 percent.

And, of course, this is the same pattern that we have seen for the last three years. We come into the year a lot of optimism. The data surprises on the strong side. First quarter numbers look really good and then it fades in the spring.

And the Fed was concerned about reading too much into the strength because they might get fooled again.

I don`t know why this pattern is so persistent, but that seems to be what`s happening is once again the numbers are going to moderate here and as we move over the next couple of months. And certainly the sequesters makes it more likely.

I think for the year, we`re probably going to see growth after that strong first quarter I mentioned of 4 percent, settled back into the kind of 2.5 percent range.

GHARIB: OK, Michelle, thank you so much.

GIRARD: Thank you.

GHARIB: Michelle Girard, senior economist at RBS.

And now, let`s turn and get a little bit of market reaction to those job numbers. Our market monitor guest tonight says the stock market is in a, quote, "corrective phase."

He`s Peter Sorrentino, senior portfolio manager of Huntington Asset Advisors.

So, Pete, how much of a correction and when does it happen? How long does it last?

PETER SORRENTINO, HUNTINGTON ASSET ADVISORS SR. PORTFOLIO MANAGER: Well, I think we could really begin grinding out throughout the course of the earnings season. You know, we`re now coming up into that window when we get surprises, both positive and negative.

And our view is that really the earnings growth started to slow in the latter half of last year, and that the market had really started to get ahead of itself. We think a lot of cash came back in that had gone out for tax purposes. And this was really just a flow-driven market. It really wasn`t the fundamentals making a difference here.

So we think we could be in for a 10 percent correction here. The market was getting perilously close to our full year target. And we still had three quarters left to go.

So we think this could basically play out. It could be a grinding correction. We could see this go out over the next two to three months.

GHARIB: All right. Let me ask you this. We saw a dramatic reversal in the Dow today. It was down as much as 170 points. It finally closed off, you know, 40 points. It seems like the stocks are still pretty resilient and the investors are kind of bullish.

SORRENTINO: Well, really, this is also a holiday week, too. And this is unfairly light volume. I think people are still phoning it in from the beach at this point.

No one wants to make huge bets in here because, again, we`re still coming into the earnings reporting season and if analysts have got it wrong, as they did on the employment estimate, then maybe corporate earnings rebounded sharply and that we see that the markets impact undervalued.

Our view is that`s not the case. But I don`t think anyone really wanted to bet big this week on which way it would fall on earnings season.

GHARIB: All right. Even though you think we`re in a corrective phase, you do see some buying opportunities and let`s go down the list of stock recommendations. Marathon petroleum is at the top of your list. This is MPC checker symbol, trading on the big board.

Now, looking at this stock chart here, it was like $34 last summer. And now, it`s up to $82. Does it still have room to grow?

SORRENTINO: Yes, absolutely. This is a company that was split out. We think it really captures the hydrocarbon renaissance.

North America is becoming a net exporter of refined hydrocarbon. Marathon is a great play to play that.

So, that`s a name that we think is not well-understood. We want to own it in here on any kind of a dip.

GHARIB: The other name you`re talking about is General Electric (NYSE:GE). The stock has been stuck in the $20 range for quite a while. Why do you like it?

SORRENTINO: One, they finished the divestitures that they talked about doing. Their balance sheet is in great shape.

They have right-sized G.E. Capital. We think that`s a potential upside in the health care sector now that we sort of have the Affordable Care Act in place. We`re grinding through that.

And you get a 3 percent plus dividend. So, you`re paid to wait, while this thing plays itself out. So, we like that story.

GHARIB: You have a tech stock on your list. We know tech stocks have not done well in this whole market rally, Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) Systems. And it got hit hard today. It was down 2 percent.

What is the attraction with Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO)?

SORRENTINO: Well, really, Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) has been refining their business. They have been getting out of their slow-growing business lines. They`ve been buying businesses that have growth potential. And if you talk to any businesses these days about where they`re spending, they`re spending for productivity gains and Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) has really continued to position itself in the forefront there.

So, as things move wireless, as more goes over the Internet, Cisco

(NASDAQ:CSCO) has tried to keep itself right in the sweet spot. We think that any rebound in business spending is really going to benefit Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) Systems.

GHARIB: All right. We have a half a minute left, let`s see if we can squeeze in Deere & Company. This is another one of the companies you`re recommending, DE ticker symbol trading on the NYSE.

What`s the story here?

SORRENTINO: We think that`s renaissance in agriculture in North America. And we think Deere is the great way to play that. More farm land is going into production. Farm incomes are up. Farmers are spending on productivity, they`re spending on equipment.

Deere is a great global story in that particular industry and we think that`s a great place to be.

GHARIB: You covered so many sectors, including agriculture. Thank you so much, Pete.

Do you have any disclosures to make?

SORRENTINO: Do not own any of those names personally, however we own all of them in our funds.

GHARIB: All right. Excellent. Have a great weekend.

Peter Sorrentino, senior portfolio manager of Huntington Asset Advisors.

MATHISEN: The Obama administration is set to release its budget proposal next week. And for first time, the president`s spending plan is said to include specific entitlement cuts, notably to Social Security.

John Harwood joins us from Washington now with more.

Tell us about what the president is likely to propose.

JOHN HARWOOD, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: What he`s doing, Tyler, is embodying the last offer he made to House Speaker Boehner when they were negotiating around the fiscal cliff in December into his formal budget proposal. So, for example, the so-called chained CPI (NYSE:CPY) adjustment, a reduction in the inflation escalator for Social Security payments is in his proposal. That will reduce future payments. It will also, because of the effect on tax brackets, cause some people`s taxes to go up to some degree.

So, this is a president trying to say to Republicans, see, I`m willing to compromise and all of the flak he`s been getting from the left today about that proposal only serves to underscore his argument. He`s hoping to convince them to come to the table with it.

MATHISEN: Will Republicans potentially go along with the idea that there`s a significant revenue raise here as a result of the fact that people as a result of what you just described, will be moving into higher tax brackets?

HARWOOD: Well, interestingly, Tyler, Republicans have made a point of principle, no more tax increases after the fiscal deal, but this is one set of tax increases that they do support. This is a Republican proposal which they pushed during the fiscal cliff talks.

The question is going to be, will they support additional revenue raisers which the Obama administration says are necessary for them to go further on entitlements. This should not be seen as Obama White House`s last offer on entitlement reductions. More to come if we get into real negotiations this spring.

GHARIB: John, address the whole timetable on this. I mean, why is this release of the president`s budget so late? We already have the House and the Senate that have passed their budgets. And are we really going to get a deal?

HARWOOD: Well, I don`t know if we`re going to get a deal. But on the time, this is part of the calculated decision by the White House to lower the temperature and part of doing that is for the president himself, who is a polarizing figure, to step away from the discussion. Let so-called regular order return, let the House do its budget which they have done, the Senate do their budget, which they`ve done, and now, the president`s trying to come in as peacemaker at the end. That`s why they delayed this budget.

MATHISEN: John Harwood on the North Lawn for us tonight -- thanks very much.

GHARIB: Also from Washington, following up on a story we told you about a few weeks ago. The Federal Aviation Administration says it will delay plans to close 149 air traffic control towers. Funding for the towers, including this one at Frederick, Maryland, airport, was cut because of the sequester.

The shut downs were originally scheduled to begin this Sunday. And now, the date is set for June 15th.

Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood says the delay will allow more time for communities and pilots to prepare for the changes.

For the list of closures, you can go to our Web site, NBR.com.

Now, LaHood said today that Boeing (NYSE:BA) has a, quote, "good plan" to fix the battery problem on its Dreamliner jets. But he still wants to make sure that the Boeing (NYSE:BA) 787s are safe before he gives the final OK to fly again. Boeing (NYSE:BA) conducted Dreamliner flight tests with the federal aviation officials on board to show them the new battery system is safe. Fifty Dreamliners had been grounded since January.

Now looking at the stock on a down market day as we have been telling you, shares were up nearly 1.5 percent.

MATHISEN: And coming up, earnings season kicks off next week. And we`re going to take a look at the likely leaders and the laggers.

But, first, take a look at how the international markets traded today.


MATHISEN: And to our "Market Focus" now.

The worst performer in the S&P 500 today was network gear maker F5 which warned that its revenues and earnings are going to be well below estimates. Now, F5 was down more than 19 percent and pulled other networking companies down with it. Juniper, Ciena, JDS Uniphase (NASDAQ:JDSU), all lower by as much as 3.6 percent. As you see there, about 3.53.

Drillers and energy explorers led the S&P gainers as the natural gas prices hit their highest level since August of 2011. Neighbors industries, the oil and gas driller, Cabot (NYSE:CBT) Oil & Gas, and WPX Energy were the top three. Nabors gained almost 6 percent, Cabot (NYSE:CBT) and WPX both gained more than 5 percent on the day.

GHARIB: Now, on a day with a lot of red ink in the market, one company having trouble of late was in the green. JCPenney, we`re talking about. The shares rose as the company rolls out its new home goods boutique in several hundreds stores. JCPenney shares up more than 2 percent today, to $15.42.

And then after the close, Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) said it`s reached a deal in principle with the Justice Department and AB InBev. Justice had filed suit, seeking concessions before allowing the merger to acquire all of Grupo Modelo from Constellation.

Constellation Brand shares rose after the news broke, gaining more than 3 percent. The stock had been down during the regular session.

Anheuser-Busch inBev also down on the day, but unchanged after hours.

MATHISEN: Well, the corporate earnings brigade kicks into gear next week.

Alcoa (NYSE:AA), as is traditional, will be the first Dow component to report. That`s on Monday. And, in fact, we will be interviewing CEO Klaus Kleinfeld after those results, right here on Monday`s broadcast.

Meantime, analysts have a tepid view of earnings season overall. They say results among S&P 500 firms will edge up about two-thirds of a percent compared to a year ago. That`s all.

However, our next guest has a more upbeat outlook. She`s Christine Short and she`s with S&P Capital IQ.

Good evening, Christine, and welcome.

You think that earnings might go up something on the order overall of 4 percent. What do you see that the rest of the crowd doesn`t?

CHRISTINE SHORT, S&P CAPITAL IQ: Well, I think, you know, anyone who`s followed earnings season, we really start the season before Alcoa (NYSE:AA) with a conservative estimate from analysts. We looked over the past eight quarters and found that on average from the week before Alcoa (NYSE:AA) reports to the time that earnings season is through, we see estimates go up by about 3.8 percent.

So if historical trends are upheld, we can expect see between 4 percent to 5 percent growth.

MATHISEN: And yet, that is relatively slow. Where will the standouts be? It won`t be the cyclicals, will it?

SHORT: Well, we`re looking at a couple of leaders this quarter. One being telecom, up 9.5 percent is what analysts currently expect. And not too much of the story. There`s only eight companies within telecom.

Really what`s happening is Sprint and Nextel had such a terrible year in 2012, they`re expected to do a little bit better in the first quarter. We`re seeing MetroPCS doing well, as AT&T (NYSE:T) and Verizon (NYSE:VZ).

I think the real story is consumer discretionary. They`re expected to be up 8.2 percent.

And similar to the fourth quarter, we are seeing the strength in the household durables, really the home builders there. So Lennar (NYSE:LEN) kicks it off a couple of weeks ago. They beat estimates and they also reported growth of 225 percent when they reported. We are expecting Pulte Homes and D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) to follow suit.

We are also seeing strength in the textiles and luxury goods sector.

So, a lot of the retailers are really expecting to pull through in post year-over-year growth.

MATHISEN: As you look at those consumer discretionary you just mentioned, one of the sort of subcategories within there is the home builders. So, does that sort of skew the numbers in a way that overstates how good those numbers might be?

SHORT: I think almost every industry within consumer discretionary is expecting some year over year growth. So, no negative industries. But certainly home builders expecting 40 percent growth. And as I mentioned, textiles and luxury growth are expecting 50 percent growth.

So, they`re heavily weighted, so that is bringing the overall sector higher. But all over, all the industries within consumer discretionary are looking pretty strong at this point for the first quarter.

MATHISEN: You know, the fourth quarter of 2012 was pretty soggy, frankly. Are -- is that going to show up in the numbers that some of the industrials, the materials companies report this quarter when we get underway?

SHORT: Well, analysts think so, especially for the industrials. They`re expected to be the biggest lagger, down about 2.5 percent is what the current estimate is. And again, like I said, same story with the fourth quarter. We`re really seeing weakness within machinery. That sector -- that industry expected to be negative year over year.

You know, if you look at some of the numbers, Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) last quarter did pretty poorly and they`re expected to be down about 40 percent in the first quarter. That followed by air freight and logistics. We saw FedEx (NYSE:FDX) come out with some pretty poor numbers a couple of weeks ago, missing estimates by 15 cents.

So we`re expecting air freight and logistics to be down year over year. Industrials being, you know, one of the biggest laggers.

Our second biggest lagger is energy -- really, that just have to do with year over year energy costs, although they`re quite high right now. In the year ago quarter, they were higher. So, it`s difficult to compare to first quarter of 2012.

MATHISEN: Christine, have a great weekend. Thanks for being with us.

SHORT: Thank you. You, too.

MATHISEN: Christine Short of S&P Capital IQ.

GHARIB: And coming up next, the first in our series on entrepreneurs and their bright ideas. We`ll introduce you to this man who started his own business sharpening pencils.

But, first, a look at how commodities, treasuries, and currencies did today.


MATHISEN: And, finally, on this jobs day, we begin a weekly series we`re calling "Bright Ideas" -- stories about entrepreneurs who often turn the simplest of ideas into moneymakers. And tonight, it`s all about positioning.

As Brian Shactman tells us, if you can convince your customer your product is good, really good, they might just pay for it. Even a well- sharpened pencil.


DAVID REES, ARTISANAL PENCIL SHARPENER: You want to do it with the knife?


REES: That`s good, that`s a good sign.

SHACTMAN (voice-over): Sharp wit and sharp pencils have been very good to David Rees.

REES: I made $20,000 sharpening pencils last year.

SHACTMAN: Lucrative hobby, part time job, run like a business. Sound crazy? Listen closely, there are methods and a little bit of madness.

REES: I was a professional cartoonist, which is like an amazing job, and I was really lucky to have it. But once it became my actual job it couldn`t become fun and then I kind of stop liking it and that`s why I quit it.

SHACTMAN: In 2010, he took a temp job knocking on doors for the U.S. Census Bureaus. His kit included a pencil and a little pink sharpener.

(on camera): You don`t use this anymore?

REES: No. That`s kind of like there for historical purposes.

SHACTMAN (voice-over): When Rees realized he liked sharpening pencils, he had an idea.

REESE: I thought that people would send me their pencils, I would sharpen them and they would use them and they would get dull again, and they`d send them back to me, I would re-sharpen them. You know, over the life of the pencil, I made like $200, $300.

SHACTMAN: Soon after, he launched Artisanalpencilsharpening.com.

Fifteen dollars per pencil, including shipping, the shavings, and a signed certificate.

But it wasn`t long before Rees had to erase his business plan.

(on camera): Don`t you find it oddly I guess ironic that most people buy these and don`t use them?

REES: Yes. I mean, frankly, it has been a -- it was a complete refutation of my original business model. They just keep them in the display tube as like a novelty item or a little strange little art work.

SHACTMAN (voice-over): But he sold about 1,600 pencils in three years.

(on camera): Is it disappointing that that`s the case?

REES: It`s just a shift and it made sense to me. It wasn`t I did a good job with sharpening the pencil or I made it really sharp. The real value that I added was, I was the guy that people paid to sharpen a pencil. It becomes like very conceptual. It`s like a snake eating its own tail.

You can see the scalloped edges.

SHACTMAN (voice-over): Rees is even particular about his pencils. Remember these? Rees says Generals are the last number 2s made in America, Jersey City, New Jersey.

He`ll overanalyze the simple act of sharpening a pencil. A point he makes in his book and in his teachings.

(on camera): I am enjoying it. I don`t know really why.

REES: That`s what everyone always says, because you have to be mindful of this weird thing that you have done without thinking about it. You`re trying to achieve some certain aesthetic ideal you have in mind, you know?

SHACTMAN (voice-over): Handmade simplicity, an idea Rees got at home in New York`s Hudson Valley where lots of people sell food and wine that they call artisanal.

REES: I felt, well, I have to -- I have to call it artisanal because that`s like a marketing decision. Like that`s how you convince people now to spend $40 on a jar of pickles or whatever.

SHACTMAN: These days, Rees is charging almost as much, $35 a pencil.

(on camera): This is what I love about my job.

REES: You`re living in a dream land.

SHACTMAN: Seriously. This is my pencil.

(voice-over): For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Brian Shactman, Beacon, New York.


GHARIB: I love that story. I`m told that business has been booming, that he`s been raising his price -- raising his prices to push nuisance (ph) away.

MATHISEN: Twenty thousand dollars he made sharpening pencils?

GHARIB: Sharpening pencils.

MATHISEN: Those are some nice pencils.

GHARIB: Simple ideas, Tyler.

MATHISEN: Oh, man!

GHARIB: Can you make big money?

That`s NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for tonight. I`m Susie Gharib. Have a fabulous weekend, everyone.

You, too, Tyler.

MATHISEN: And, you, too, Susie.

Thanks for joining us this evening. I`m Tyler Mathisen.

We`ll see you right back here on Monday. And remember to check in with us all weekend on NBR.com.


Nightly Business Report transcripts and video are available on-line post broadcast at http://nbr.com. The program is transcribed by CQRC Transcriptions, LLC. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Nightly Business Report, or CNBC, Inc. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. (c) 2013 CNBC, Inc.

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