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Beta Distribution

The uniform density of the beta distribution. and f(x) = 0 elsewhere is a special case

The beta distribution generally is used to model the behaviour of random variables whose values are restricted to intervals of finite length. It is also often used as a model for proportions, such as the proportion of time that a machine is in a state of being repaired.

Example 10 A gasoline wholesale distributor has bulk storage tanks that hold fixed supplies and are filled every Monday. Of interest to the wholesaler is the proportion of this supply that is sold during the week. Over many weeks of observation it was found that this proportion could be modeled by a beta distribution with Find the probability that the wholesaler will sell at least 90% of her stock in a given week.

Yuhaniz Ahmad

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SQQS1043 CHAPTER 2

Normal Distribution

The normal distribution is the most important and most commonly used among all of probability distributions. A large number of phenomena in the real world are normally distributed either exactly or approximately. The normal distribution or the normal curve is a bell-shaped (symmetric) curve. Its mean is denoted by while its standard deviation is denoted by .

The normal distribution is often referred to as the Gaussian distribution. Properties of Normal Distribution It is bell-shaped and symmetrical in appearance Its measures of central tendency (mean, median, mode) are all identical Its probability density function is determined by its mean and standard variance Its associated variable has a theoretically infinite range ( )

A plotted normal distribution will gives a bell-shaped curve which can be illustrated likes:

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SQQS1043 CHAPTER 2

The units for the standard normal distribution curve are denoted by z and called the z values or z scores. The z value or z score is actually the number of standard deviation that a particular x value is away from the mean. The area under a standard normal distribution curve is used to solve practical application problems such as Finding the probability of adult woman whose height is between 5 feet 4 inches and 5 feet 7 inches. There are two ways to calculate the probability of a normal random variable Through pdf of normal distribution Through the standard normal distribution table

Yuhaniz Ahmad

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SQQS1043 CHAPTER 2

Example 11 Find the probabilities that a random variable having the standard normal distribution will take on a value a) Less than 1.72

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SQQS1043 CHAPTER 2

Standard Normal Distribution

Any random variable having a normal distribution, simply perform the change of scale

Example 12 Suppose that the amount of cosmic radiation to which a person is exposed when flying by jet across the United States is a random variable having a normal distribution with a mean of 4.35 mrem and a standard deviation of 0.59 mrem. What is the probability that a person will be exposed to more than 5.20 mrem of cosmic radiation on such a flight?

Class Activity 4

1. A random variable has a normal distribution with . If the probability that the random variable will take on a value less than 82.5 is 0.8212, what is the probability that it will take on a value greater than 58.3?

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SQQS1043 CHAPTER 2

2. If the annual proportion of new restaurants that fail in a given city may be looked upon as a random variable having a beta distribution with and , find a) The mean of this distribution, that is, the annual proportion of new restaurants that can be expected to fail in the given city.

b) The probability that at least 25 percent of all new restaurants will fail in the given city in any one year.

The normal distribution is a good approximation to discrete distribution when it is bell shaped. Thus normal distribution can be used to approximate binomial and Poisson distributions. The normal distribution provides a close approximation to the binomial distribution with mean and variance when n, the number of trials, is very large and , the probability of a success on an individual trial, is close to 0.5.

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SQQS1043 CHAPTER 2

Normal Approximation to the Discrete Distributions (Continuity Correction Factor) Discrete (Binomial / Poisson) Normal

Example 13 A magazine reported that 6% of Malaysian drivers read the newspaper while driving. If 300 drivers are selected at random, find the probability that exactly 25 say they read the newspaper while driving.

Yuhaniz Ahmad

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SQQS1043 CHAPTER 2

Normal Approximation to the Poisson Distribution

As mentioned earlier, normal distribution can be used to estimate Poisson distribution but of course with continuity correction factor since normal random variable is continuous while Poisson random variable is discrete. If X is a Poisson random variable with parameter , then X can be approximated by a normal distribution with mean and variance when is large.

On average 20 customers bought petrol at a new 24-hour gas station in every 30 minutes. What is the probability that there are at least 60 customers in the next 2 hours?

Class Activity 5

1. Of the members of a bowling league, 10% are widowed. If 200 bowling league members are selected at random, find the probability that 10 or more will be widowed.

Yuhaniz Ahmad

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SQQS1043 CHAPTER 2

2. A cendol seller in Changlun knows that on average, 140 people bought his cendol daily (he sells from 11am to 6pm). Find the a) Probability that at least 15 people bought his cendol in one hour.

b) Probability that at most 28 people bought his cendol from 4pm to 6pm.

c) Mean and variance for the number of people who bought his cendol in three hours.

Yuhaniz Ahmad

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SQQS1043 CHAPTER 2

Functions of Random Variables

To perform a transformation of variable in the continuous cases, we shall assume that the function given by is differentiable and either increasing and decreasing for all values within the range of X for which , so the inverse function, given by , exists for all corresponding values of y and is differentiable except .

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SQQS1043 CHAPTER 2

Moment Generating Function Technique

As discrete case, moment generating functions can play an important role in determining the probability density of a function of random variables when the function is a linear combination of n independent random variables. The moment generating function of the sum of n independent random variables equals the product of their moment generating functions. (refer to Theorem 1.27) Example 17 If are independent random variables having exponential distributions with the same parameter , find the probability density of the random variable .

Class Activity 6

1. If n independent random variables have the same gamma distribution with the parameters and , find the moment generating function of their sum and, if possible, identify its distribution.

Yuhaniz Ahmad

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SQQS1043 CHAPTER 2

2. If the probability density of X is given by

and

, find

Yuhaniz Ahmad

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