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Presentation of Key Findings from a National Survey on Immigration

April 10, 2013


Bill McInturff Elizabeth Harrington
VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

#13082

Floyd Ciruli
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Methodology
National Telephone Survey:
700 registered voters March 23-27, 2013 Margin of error = +3.7%
VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

Immigration Reform
VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

Immigration reform is a high priority for a plurality of voters.


Level of Priority of Immigration Reform by Party

Very High/High

Medium

Low

All Voters

While Congress is debating several important issues dealing with the federal budget and deficit, there is also significant debate on immigration reform. Thinking about all of the issues that Congress is facing, how high a priority should fixing our immigration system be compared with all the other issues?

VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

It is clear that Americans attitudes have shifted to be much more positive over time when it comes to the perceived impact of immigration on the United States.
Impact of Immigration on the U.S. -28% 64% 52% 53% 37% 43% -13% -16% -2% +8%

36%

39%

45%

48%

40%

November 2006

December 2007*

May 5-11, 2010*

May 20-23, 2010*

March 2013

Helps More Than Hurts


*Trend data from NBC-Wall Street Journal polls

Hurts More Than Helps

Would you say that immigration helps the United States more than it hurts it, or hurts the United States more than it helps it?

VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

A majority of Americans believe that illegal immigrants are here in the U.S. to make a better life for themselves and their families.
Top One or Two Reasons Voters Say Most Illegal Immigrants are in the U.S. Would you say that most illegal immigrants currently here in the United States are

Trying to make a better life for their family Hard working people Taking advantage of our welfare, health, and education systems Taking jobs away from American workers The next generation of the American dream Criminals escaping their own country

58% 33% 33% 19% 10% 5%


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Please tell me the one or two statements you agree with most. Would you say that most illegal immigrants are currently here in the United States to

VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

We tested eight immigration reform goals for Congress. Americans place the highest priority on the following three goals for Congress in reforming the immigration system today:
Importance of Immigration Goals (0-10 Scale) Mean Score % 8-10

Make sure all immigrants pay taxes Pass a long-term solution that fixes the immigration problem once and for all Come up with an immigration reform plan that can be supported by both Republicans and Democrats

8.9 82% 8.0 68% 7.9 65%


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Now, I am going to mention some possible goals that Congress might have for reforming the immigration system. For each goal, please indicate how high a priority you feel it should be. Use a scale from zero to ten, on which a ten means it should be the si ngle most important goal, a zero means it should not be an important goal, and five is in the middle. You many use any number from one to ten.

VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

Guest Worker Program


VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

Roughly seven out of ten voters say they favor Congress establishing a guest worker program that would give work permits to people who are already in the U.S. illegally if they pass a background check and have a job.
Strongly Favor

Do you favor or oppose Congress establishing a guest worker program that would give work permits to people who are already in the U.S. illegally, who pass a security background check, and have a job?

35%

69%
Total Oppose

Total Favor

31%
19%

Strongly Oppose

VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

Voters agree that a guest worker program is the best way to get control of our borders.

The best way to get control of our border is to have a system for handling guest workers. Without a guest worker program, we are just inviting more illegal border crossings.

71% 26%
10

Total Agree

Total Disagree

VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

We tested six specific components of a proposal to establish a guest worker program. Majorities of voters favor each component we tested.
Guest Worker Program Components Guest workers would have to pass a security background check and have a job. Guest workers would receive a work permit smart card that includes a photograph of the worker, employment information, and biometric data such as fingerprints. % Favor % Oppose

90%

9%

85% 14%

Guest workers would be able to renew their work permit without leaving the U.S.
The work permit smart card would be for a set period of time and have an expiration date.

83% 16% 81% 16%


76% 21%

This program is a way for non-citizens to legally live and work in the U.S. and provides no special treatment or advantage toward citizenship, which is a completely separate process. Guest workers would be able to switch employers without having to reapply for a new work permit.

59% 40%
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VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

And when asked overall as one proposal, nearly eight out of ten voters favor establishing this six part guest worker program.

Now, having heard all six different parts of this guest worker program, overall, would you favor or oppose the establishment of this guest worker program in its entirety?

79% 19%
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Total Favor

Total Oppose

VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

Voters in all regions of the country favor the guest worker program. Support is highest in the South and in Border States.
Favor/Oppose Six Part Guest Worker Program by Region/Border States +48% +63% 80% +67% +61% 79% +70% +58% 78%

73%

83%

83%

25%

17%

16%

18%

13%

20%

Northeast (21%)

Midwest (22%)

South (34%)

West (23%)

Border States Not Border States (20%) (80%)

Favor

Oppose

Now, having heard all six different parts of this guest worker program, overall, would you favor or oppose the establishment of this guest worker program in its entirety?

VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

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While support for this program is high among all ethnic groups, it is highest among Hispanics/Latinos.
Favor/Oppose Six Part Guest Worker Program by Ethnicity +57% +70% +75%

77%

85%

87%

20%

15%
African Americans (12%) Favor Oppose

12%
Hispanics/Latinos (10%)

Whites (74%)

Now, having heard all six different parts of this guest worker program, overall, would you favor or oppose the establishment of this guest worker program in its entirety?

VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

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Looking more closely at one part of the six part proposal: A guest worker program needs to be a separate process from citizenship. This is acceptable and supported across party.
This program is a way for non-citizens to legally live and work in the U.S. and provides no special treatment or advantage toward citizenship, which is a completely separate process.
Favor Oppose

All Voters

VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

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Supporting this finding, the largest difference of opinion by party happens in the discussion of citizenship.
Importance of Immigration Goals (0-10 Scale)

Mean Score

% 8-10

Ensure that immigrants who came to the U.S. illegally have the opportunity to eventually become legal American citizens if they choose

All Voters

Now, I am going to mention some possible goals that Congress might have for reforming the immigration system. For each goal, please indicate how high a priority you feel it should be. Use a scale from zero to ten, on which a ten means it should be the si ngle most important goal, a zero means it should not be an important goal, and five is in the middle. You many use any number from one to ten.

VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

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We tested some additional possible parts of a guest worker program:


Additional POSSIBLE Guest Worker Program Components The types of jobs available to guest workers would be determined by employers, not by the federal government. The guest worker program could be used for all employment sectors and types, ranging from manual labor or farming to engineering or hitech jobs. The spouse and children of guest workers would be able to come to the U.S. to join the worker. Parents, brothers, and sisters of guest workers would be able to come to the U.S. to join the worker. More Favorable Less Favorable No Difference

58% 14% 26%

49% 15% 35% 43% 33% 23%


21% 57% 22%
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Now, I would like to get your reaction to some additional possible parts of the guest worker program. For each one, please tell me whether this gives you a more favorable opinion of the program, a less favorable opinion of the program, or if it makes no difference about how you feel about the program one way or the other.

VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

When specifically asked about the number of guest worker permits made available, the majority of voters want employer demand and need to be the determining factor, not the federal government setting quotas.

Do you think the number of guest worker permits made available and distributed to non-citizens should be determined by
The federal government setting quotas on the number of jobs that can be filled by guest workers or Employer demand and need of guest workers to fill jobs that cannot be filled by American workers

27% 65%
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Federal Government

Employer Demand

VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

This point of view that a guest worker program should be driven by employer demand not by government quota is supported by some surprising audiences:

Employer Demand

Federal Government

Net Difference

Strong Democrats Union Household

Obama Voters
Liberals
VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

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Testing Arguments For/Against Guest Worker Program


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Top Support Arguments


Very Convincing Total Convincing

It is unacceptable to have twelve million immigrants in our country who are currently outside the system. This program would require illegal immigrants to register for legal work status and pay their taxes. We must be smart and tough to get our immigration system under control. We must require illegal immigrants to register for legal work status, pay their taxes, and pass security background checks to remain in this country. This program would do just that.

52% 83% 50% 84%


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VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

Top Oppose Arguments


Very Convincing Total Convincing

This program would allow the millions of illegal immigrants to stay in this country and bring millions more over by allowing their families to join them. This would mean higher costs for us because it would mean greater use of taxpayer services like our schools and hospitals.

32% 58% 31% 61%


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This program would leave the decision about who enters the country to private companies and large corporations who are more interested in hiring cheap labor than protecting our citizens. We cannot allow that to happen.

VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

In the end, overall support for the establishment of this guest worker program remains high.
Favor/Oppose Six Part Guest Worker Program

+60% 79%

+40%

69%

19%

29%

Initial Favor Oppose

Informed

Now, having heard more about this guest worker program, overall, would you favor or oppose the establishment of this six part guest worker program in its entirety?

VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

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There is majority support across party.


Informed Favor/Oppose Six Part Guest Worker Program by Party

Favor

Oppose

Net Difference

All Voters

Now, having heard more about this guest worker program, overall, would you favor or oppose the establishment of this six part guest worker program in its entirety?

VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

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After hearing a series of statements in support of and in opposition to the guest worker program, a majority of respondents would prefer this system be administered by private employment agencies.
Now, I am going to read you two statements about how the guest worker program could work. Please tell me which one you would prefer.
Private employment agencies would be responsible for distributing guest worker permits based on employer need each year which would help keep the economy growing. or An independent commission representing business and labor appointed by the federal government would be responsible for setting quotas on the number of jobs that can be filled by guest workers.

Private Employment Agencies

52% 42%
An Independent Commission

VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

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Take Aways
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Take Aways:
High priority: Republicans and Democrats see fixing the immigration system as a high priority. Solution: long-term and bipartisan: Voters want a long-term solution to fix the immigration problem once and for all and a plan that is supported by both parties. A guest worker program is necessary to control borders. Strong support for a guest worker program: Voters support a guest worker program with background checks and jobs69%. Marketplace, not government: Number of permits decided by employer demand and need65%; types of jobs decided by employer demand58%.
VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

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Appendix
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Demographics of Sample:
2012 Exit Poll Data* Krieble Survey

Age

18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Whites African Americans Hispanics/Latinos

19% 27% 38% 16% 72% 13% 10%

16% 28% 37% 18% 74% 12% 10%

Ethnicity

Party

Republicans Independents Democrats


Romney Obama Cell Phone Only

32% 29% 38%


47% 51% 33%

35% 18% 44%


40% 48% 25%
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2012 Ballot

*CNN exit poll data shown, except 2012 ballot is actual

VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

All of the Immigration Goals We Tested (0-10 Importance Scale)


Mean Score
Make sure all immigrants pay taxes Pass a long-term solution that fixes the immigration problem once and for all Come up with an immigration reform plan that can be supported by both Republicans and Democrats Provide employers with the technological ability to verify whether employees are legal Do more to secure the border to keep people from entering the country illegally Ensure that immigrants who came to the U.S. illegally have the opportunity to eventually become legal American citizens if they pay a fine, any back taxes, and pass a security background check* Establish a guest worker program that would give work permits to immigrants who pass a security background check and have a job

% 8-10

8.9 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.6

82% 68% 65% 63% 61%

7.1
7.1 6.2

54%
52% 39%
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Ensure that immigrants who came to the U.S. illegally have the opportunity to eventually become legal American citizens if they choose*
*Half-sampled

VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

Next Top Support Arguments


Very Convincing Total Convincing

This program would mean additional tax revenue for the government as more and more non-citizen workers and their employers would be paying taxes. This would help reduce the deficit and put greater revenue and dollars into our economy. This program would provide a way for undocumented workers to obtain legal work status. It would provide employers with an efficient and monitored way to make sure they are employing only legal immigrants who have passed security background checks. This guest worker program would provide no special treatment or advantage toward citizenship, which is a completely separate process.

42% 75% 41% 80%


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VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013

Next Top Oppose Arguments


Very Convincing Total Convincing

This program would place our national security at risk. Although non-citizens would receive security background checks, these background checks would not be strict or rigorous enough. Non-citizen workers would be run through the FBI database and the criminal database of their own country. This places too much trust in foreign governments to secure our borders.

27% 54% 27% 52%


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This program would do nothing to limit immigration into this country; in fact, it would encourage more immigrants to come here and take Americans jobs. When unemployment is this high and our economy continues to suffer, the American people just cannot afford this program.

VERNON K. KRIEBLE FOUNDATIONAPRIL 2013