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InternationalFinance DiscussionPapers Number 536 January 1996

**REGIME SWITCHINGIN THE DYNAMICRELATIONSHIPBETWEENTHE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE AND INNOVATIONSIN NONBORROWEDRESERVES
**

Chan Huh

NOTE: InternationalFinance DiscussionPapers are prelimimry materialscirculatedto stimulate discussionand critical comment. Referencesin publicationsto InternationalFinance Discussion Papers (other than an acknowledgment hat the writer has had access to unpublishedmaterial) should t be cleared with the author or authors.

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between changes in the finds rate and

**nonborrowedreserves within a reduced form framework that allows the relationship to have
**

WO distinct patterns over time. A regime switching model a la Hamilton (1989) is estimated.

**On average, CPI inflation has been significantly higher in the regime characterizedby large
**

and volatile changes in funds rate. Innovations in money growth are associatedwith a strong anticipated inflation effect in this high inflation regime, and a moderate liquidity effect in the low inflation regime. Furthermore, an identical money innovation generates a much bigger increase in the interest rate during a transition period from the low to high inflation regime than during a steady high inflation period. This accords well with economic intuition since the transition period is when the anticipated inflation effect initially gets incorporated into the interest rate. The converse also holds. That is, the liquidity effect becomes stronger when the economy leaves a high inflation regime period and enters a low inflation regime period.

.

. .

REGIME SWITCHING IN THE DYNAMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE AND INNOVATIONSIN NONBORROWEDRESERVES

Chan Huh]

Introduction Many recent studies document a great deal of instability in the observed strength of the liquidity effect--i.e., the negative dynamic relationship between nominal interest rates and monetary aggregates (e.g., Thornton, 1988, Leeper and Gordon, 1992). Along with the particular monetary aggregate used, the sample period emerges as a crucial factor in determining the strength of the estimated liquidity effect. Even in studies with affirmative findings, there is evidence suggesting instability in the relationship seen in empirical models of conventiOnal, as well as new, varieties. As a result, some researchers pay close attention to the sample period. For example, this concern could be a key reason why some limit the sample of their study to a short, particular period, rather than using a longer sample (e.g.,

Leeper and Gordon (1993)).2

1The author is an economistin the Divisionof InternationalFinance,FederalReserve Board,and the FederalReserve Bank of San Francisco. I would like to thank seminarparticipantsat the FederalReserve Bank of San Francisco,the Board of Governors,the Fall 1995System Conferenceon Macroeconomics, and the Bank of Korea, as well as John Judd, Ken Kas~ Glenn Rudebusch,Tom Sargent,MichaelBoldin, Philip Jefferson, and Jon Faust for helpful commentsand suggestions. Judy Kim providedable research assistance. Any remainingerrors are my own. The views expressedhere are those of the authorand do not necessarilyreflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Franciscoor the Board of Governorsof the Federal Reserve System. Please address correspondenceto: Chan Huh, Mail Stop #23, Divisionof InternationalFinance, Board of Governorsof the Federal Reserve System, Washington,DC 20551. Email: huhc@frb.gov,tel.:202-452-2296. 2 Mishkin (1981) finds instability in the coefficients of the model used in testing a negative relationship between the unanticipatedparts of the short-term interest rate and monetary aggregates. Thornton’s (1988) result suggestsheteroskedasticity.Eichenbaumand Christian (1992), and Christian (1994) offer a similar observationregardingthe “moneysupply”equationused to net out the anticipated componentof change in the monetaryaggregates. Pagan and Robertson(1994) document the presence 1

This study, therefore,focuses on the observationthat the sample period has a critical influenceon estimatesof the liquidityeffect. Applying the stochasticregime changingmodel developedby Hamilton(1989), I estimate a bivariateregressionequation of interest rates and reservesthat allows for potential systematicshifts in the relationshipacross differentperiods. This paper investigatesthe potential influenceof such regimes on measuresof the liquidity effect. Finding evidenceof a systematicand significantshifi in the relationship will offer an explanationof inconsistenciesseen in the empiricalliquidityeffect literature. Shifts in inflation momentum over time are conjectured to be an importantunderlying factor behind potential shifis in the interest rate-reserves relationship.3 The theoretical “

reason for deeming the inflation tendencyimportantis straightfonvard. From the Fisher effect, nominal interest rates partly reflect anticipatedinflation. Thus, the inflationary momentumshould influencethe extent to which the anticipatedinflation component dominatesmovements in observed nominal interest rates in response to changes in some monetaryaggregates.4 The federal tids rate (FYFF)and nonborrowedreserves (NBR) are used in this

of ARCH in the residualsof the equationsof the VAR system used to examine impulseresponsesfor the liquidityeffect. 3Shifis in inflationarymomentumcould arise due to several reasonsthat are not mutuallyexclusive. They are; (i) changes in the inflationarytendencyof monetarypolicy,(ii) inflationaryimpulsescoming from supply shocks, and (iii) changes in market participants’views of the inflationtrend. 4See,Fuerst (1992), Christian and Eichenbaum(1992), Coleman,Gilles, and Labadie(1992, 1994) for examplesof a flexible price generalequilibriummodelingapproachto the liquidityeffect. Theirs is a cash-in-advanceframeworkwith segmented(financialand goods)markets. A liquiditypremiumarises because money is valued differently in the financial market than in the goods market. LeRoy (1984) offers a model with a money-in-the-utilityfunction specification, in which the existence of a liquidity effect critically depends on the serial correlation properties of the exogenous money injections. A change in the current money supply will have different effects dependingon what is expected to follow in subsequent periods. 2

.

“ .

study. There is a long list of papersthat focus on these two variables (for example, Strongin (1989), Christian and Eichenbaum(1992), Christian, Eichenbaumand Evans (1994),and Hamilton (1994)). Here, however,I relax the usual single regime assumptionof the existing literature and insteadestimate reducedform equationsof interest rates and reserves akin to Mishkin (1982), adding the stochasticregimeshifting feature.5 Then, I ex~ine whetherthere

is a noticeablechange in extant findings of the empirical liquidity effect literature.b The

model is estimatedusing first difference monthly data for the 1963-1993 sample period. The ‘unanticipated’ rowth rate of NBR, as derived in Mishkin (1982), is used as the money g measure and it will be referredas unbr. Results indicatethat the regime switchingmodel fits the data better than a single regime model. The two disjoint sampleperiods, each best describedby the two regime specific models, differ in terms of averagechange in the interest rate and money growth,as well as the volatility of the rate changes. More importantly,the historicalCPI inflationrate has been significantlyhigher during periods dominated by a larger averagechange and more volatile regime. Based on this, the two regimes will be referred to as the high or low inflation regimes. The 1970sand early ’80sshow a greater concentrationof high inflation regimes.

‘Thus, this model might be regardedas a two-state version of the singleequation model of Mishkin (1982). There has been progress in empirical liquidity effect literature since early 1980 as shown, for example, in Pagan and Robertson(1995). However,the possibilityof a systematicchange in regimesas modelled in this paper has not been considered. Since this work is in the spirit of a preliminary investigationon the importanceof regime switching,a single equation framework is adopted. ‘Jefferson(1994)appliesa similarregimeswitchingframeworkto issuesof monetarypolicy.However, his focus is on assessing various qualitativeindexes of policy stance. For general applications see Hamilton (1989, 1994), Filardo (1994), Boldin (1992), Kim (1994), and Ammer and Brunner (1994).

3

Interestrate responsesto an innovationin money growth in the two regimes clearly diverge. The low inflation regime is associatedwith a more significantnegative short-run comovementbetweenthe interest rate and unbr (i.e., liquidity effect). In response to an

innovation in reserve growth, cumulative changes in the interest rate remain negative for ten months in the low inflation regime. In other words, in a regime of low inflation, the interest rate will remain below the level it was at before the initial period for at least ten months following a positive unbr shock.

In contrast, in a regime of high inflation the overall impact of a reserve innovation will be counteredquickly and will thus be more short-lived. For the same innovation,the interest rate rises sharply above the initial level within four months of the initial period. This appears to illustratean overwhelminganticipatedinflationeffect, in contrast to the modest

liquidity effect seen in low inflation periods. An examination of dynamic properties of the estimated model around regime switching periods indeed yields economically sensible results. It shows the interest rate rising

by a large amount as the economyenters a high inflation (regime)period afier being in a low inflationperiod for awhile. That is, the net increase in the rate following an innovationin money during such a transitionperiod is much bigger than that seen for a persistentlyhigh inflationsample period. This is intuitive because the transition period is when there is an increase in inflationarymomentumas the result of both a higher inflation expectationand inflation risk premia getting initially incorporatedinto interest rates. The converse holds, i.e., the interestrate falls by a large amount as the economyenters into a low inflation (regime)

period after being in

a

high inflationperiod for awhile.7This observationfurther suggeststhat

it is reasonableto associateidentifiedregime periods with high and low inflation. Such disparatedynamicresponsesof the interest rate across the two regimes could explain why studies using differentsample periodsfind positive, as well as negative, comovementpatternsbetweenmoney and interestrates. A relatively large concentrationof observationsfrom a particularregime could influencethe characteristicsof the liquidity effect. For example,Pagan and Robertson(1994) document such a disparity in impulse responsesof the funds rate to a nonborrowedreserve shock for different sample periods. They found that the size of the bounceback in the tids rate followingan initial negative responseto be much larger for the sample from 1974to 1993,comparedto that of the 1959 to 1993sample. In the shorter sample,the size of the bounce back was even larger than the initial fall in the rate. Characteristicsof the shorter sample might reflect those of high inflation regime observations,which make up a larger proportionof the fill sample in the post-1974period. Finally, the goal of the exercisesin this paper is to documentregime switches in data

rather than to examine why and how the regimes switch. However, this paper’s finding naturally raises a second set of questions. In that regard, any suggestion given here is speculative. For instance, one cannot interpret each regime as unambiguously capturing the

7 Consider hvo distinct histories. In the first, a low inflation regime prevails before and afier the reserve innovation. In the second history, the economy remains in a high inflation regime up to the innovationdate t, then switchesto and remains in a low inflationregime thereafter. It turns out that the magnitudeof the cumulativefall in the interestrate of history two is much largerthan that of historyone. This differencecan be thoughtof as an addedbenefit(deflationarybonus)when the regimeswitchesfrom a high to low inflationtype. Conversely,there seemsto be an inflationpenalty. That is, the interestrate increase associated with the low to high inflationregime switch is bigger than that associatedwith the scenario where a high inflation regime persists throughout.

5

monetarypolicy stance, i.e., shifis in the reserve supply curve. However,shifis in inflation momentumover time do appear to be an importantunderlyingfactor behind shifis in the interest rate-reservesrelationship. Further study, with a more elaborateidentificationscheme, might yield informativeresults. SectionsII and III offer a descriptionof the model and estimationresults. Dynamic responsesof the interest rate to an innovationin money growth for each regime are examined in SectionIV. SectionV offers a brief discussionof the findingsand Section VI concludes.

II. Model Specification The followingmodel representsan extension of the univariatemodel of Hamilton (1989),

(1) where

et -N(O, u(St)).

Here r denoteschanges in interest rate and unbr denotes unanticipatedgrowth in money. St is the regime index, indicatingwhat regime is in place in period t. Both the average level of ~ (i.e., ~~)~d its interaction with its own lags and monetary aggregates depend on the regime

in place at any given period t (i.e., P(S,)’S).The error terms are assumedto be from two

normal distributionswith zero means, and the varianceof each distributionis regime dependent(i.e., ~(s)’s). Thus, heteroskedasticityis a propertyof the model. The cument

regime S, is assumed to be unobservable, but agents can draw probabilistic inferences. That

6

**is, agents can calculate P(S1 given the histories of the observablevariablesr and unbr. Two )
**

types of regimes are posited, type H and type L. Switches between the two are assumed to be governed by the following two-state Markov process with constant transition probabilities;

prob(S, = L ISt-l = L) =p,

prob(Sl = H IS1-l = L) = 1 -p,

prob(S~ = H IS,-l = H) = q,

and

Prob(S, = L IS,-l = H) = 1 -q.

This regime switchingproperty is the main imovation of the model in this paper. The money variable (unbr) used in the estimationis the unanticipatedchange in money derived along the line of Mishkin (1982). That is,

unbrt = A nbrt - A nbrte

where

Anbrte = E( A nbrt Ixt_ ~) and

, x- ~= (A ip,-i, AcPi,-i, Art_i,Anbrt.i

~i = 1,2,3,....).

**To be specific, the anticipated monthly growth in NBR for each period is obtained by
**

7

regressingit on the informationset consisting of six lagged values of the growth rate of industrialproduction,CPI inflation,changes in the funds rate, and the growth rate of NBR.8

Figure 1 intuitivelydescribesthe reserve market situationthat is envisionedb}’the current two regime model.9 Supposethat the nonborrowedreserve supply is inelasticbut can shifi betweentwo levels, H and L. Also suppose that there are two distinct demands for the reservesof H and L. Over time, we will observe market clearingpairs of nonborrowed resemes and the tids rates as both the supply and demand are buffetedby respectiveshocks. Furthermore,the observeddata will likely form two distinct clusters. Supposethe two followingconditionsare met. First, each regime is sufficientlypersistentso that we will have a number of observations,contiguousin time. that are generatedunder similar circumstances. At the same time a shifi betweenthe two regimes occurs frequentlyenough so that we will have a reasonablenumber of observationsfor each regime period. Once these conditionsare met. the dichotomyschemeadopted here will fit the data better.

*Strictiyspeaking,this procedureinvolvesthe assumptionthat the contemporaneousmoney demand factors are not important. Nonetheless,the focus of the paper is to examinea divergencein the bivariate dynamicpatterns,or the liquidityeffect. Thus, for expositionalpurposesthis assumptionis retained. The current model will have a better chanceof capturingthe generaltendenciesof the interactionbetweenthe funds rate and the reserve at two distinct intersectionpoints if such shifis occur reasonablyfrequently.

i

**9Weare ignoring the borrowed component in total reserves for reasons of brevity.
**

8

111.Estimation Results

Two versions of (1) are estimatedusing the numericalmaximum likelihoodmethod describedin Hamilton (1994). The first specificationassumes that there is a distinct shifi in the averagerate of change in r across the two regimes, i.e., P,(H) > p,(L). However, no such

restriction of a distinct shifi is imposed on unbr. The second specification, shown below, imposes that both the timing of the regime shifi and the magnitude of average rates of changes in each regime be identical for r and unbr.

4

3

r, = V,(St)

+~ ~!(st) [r, _j - V(St-j)] j= 1

+ ~ ~~(st) j =0

(unbrt-i -

~(sr-i)]

+ Et(st) .

The models are estimatedusing first difference monthly data on FYFF, and urzbr, where both series are measuredby their monthlyaverages.]o Estimationresults are given in Tables 1 and 2 for models I (the first specification)and II (the second specification). Standarderrors of estimatedcoefficientsare given in parentheses. Before going further. we need to address the question of whether or not the two regime specificationversus a single regime alternativeis most appropriate.This is done by

‘“Thesample period is from 1963:1to 1993:12and the series were transformedas follows. First, ~ = 1og(1+ ~100)*100, then r,= (R-K.,)*1O. For nonbomowedresenes (’NBR), brt= log (NBVB&n ,)*100. The innovations(unbr’s) in NBR are derived by regressing nbr, on the variables shown in (2). The regression was run recursivelywith the starting date of 1959:6. This ensures that the estimationof (1) for period t does not involveany informationbeyond period t. This procedurecould give rise to a generatedregressor problem and hencethe standarderrors of the estimated coefficientscould understate the true extent of uncertainty. However, results do not change perceptibly when equation (1) was estimatedusingthe actualchangesin nonborrowedreservesinsteadof the unanticipatedmoneyof equation (2) (Huh (1995)). 9

using the likelihoodratio test of the two specificationsas suggestedby Garcia (1992).’1 This test overwhelminglyrejects the single regime null hypothesis.lz D

A negativecomovementpattern between r and unbr, (i.e., the liquidity effect) holds in both regimes. For model I (Table 1) the coefficients on contemporaneous money growth are significantly negative for both regimes. A negative contemporaneous comovement is more pronounced in regime L (significant at 1 percent) than in regime H (significant at 5 percent) for model I. In model 11,the contemporaneous coefficient is significant only in regime L (at

1 percent). A negativeeffect persists even afier one month in regime L, but not in regime H (i.e., ~’mis significantat 10 percent) for model I. A further discussionof the dynamic response of the interestrate to a change in money will be given later. Figure 2 plots the inferredprobabilitythat regime H was in place in any given month based on informationup to each period. This is based on model 1. Data generatedfrom the other specification(model II) does not differ much. Regime H seems to have been dominant during severalperiods. The most noticeable is the sample period from 1979 to 1982. The sample period of 1973-75is also prominent. Regime H has been in three additionalperiods, 1969-70.1984-85,and early 1987. To see if there is a systematiclink between inflationand each of the two regimes,

Figure 3 shows annual CPI inflation(a 7 month moving average of annualizedmonthly

‘lThesingle regimemodel is not identifiedunderthe null hypothesisand consequentlythe likelihood ratio has a non-standardChi-square distribution. For more discussion see Garcia (1992) and Hansen (1993). 12The difference in the likelihood functionvalues is large. For Model I, the likelihoodvalue for a single regime version was 714 compared with 594.7 from Table 1. This strongiy suggests that the four

lag specification is a very poor one for single regime models. For example, the value falls to 670 from 710 when 12 lags are included. .

.

10

changesin CPI) along with the infemedprobabilityof regime H. There is a high degree of coherencebetween the actual high inflationperiods and regime H periods. With the exceptionof the 1984-85interval,each regime H period coincideswith a rising or peaking CPI inflation.

To be more specific,regime specific samplesare constructed based on whether P(S(t) = H), shown in Figure 2, is greater than 0.5 or not. The averageCPI inflation for periods belonging to regime L (290 out of the total 365 months) was 4.29 percent. On the other

hand, the average for the 75 months belongingto the type H regime was 8.31 percent. The standarderrors for each period are 2.2 (type L) and 3.2 (type H). Average growth in money divided into two subsamplesexhibitsa similar divergencein characteristics. Averagegrowth in nonbomowedreservesduring the regime H period is 2.8 times larger than in regime L. With regard to the variabilitymeasuredin terms of standarderrors of growth rates, it is 1.5 times more volatile in regime H than in regime L periods. Results also indicate that a larger average change in the interestrate is associated with a significantly larger variability. That is,

02(H) > az(L).

The estimates of the transitionprobabilities(p’sand q’s)suggest that the low inflation regime has been about 10 percentmore persistent.Overall,regime L has been more prevalent than regime H in the period between 1964-1993. The expected durations are 39 and 10 ] months for L and H regimes,respectively. 3

13Because model is specified in terms of changes in the interest rate, it is conceivablethat the the model might identi~ periods during which the interestrate is raised from 1 to 2 percent as belonging to the high inflation regime! This would be absurd based on historicalexperiencewhich suggeststhat such low fundsrates would be compatibleonly with very low inflation. However,it is also historicallythe case that the funds rate is not changed by a large amount during periods of low and stable inflation. For example,the ranges of change in the fundsrate (measuredin basis points)during regime L and H periods 11

IV. Dynamic Effect of Reserve Intervention on the Interest Rate 1. Regime Specific Responses A clearer divergencebetweenthe two regimes emergeswhen we examinetheir dynamic properties. The quantitative experiment involves tracing effects of equal reserve

interventions for each regime over time. We will use model I as the example. Due to the regime switching structure of the models, dynamic responses crucially depend on which regime is in place at period t, the period when the reserve imovation takes place.

Furthermore,in tracing these effects,we have to allow for the possibilityof regime switching over time. First, we assume that the economyhas been in the same regime for five months (period t-4 through period t) with no innovationin the money supply (~nb~i= O,i =t-4,..t-l).14 Then, we subject the economyto a one-time imovation in money (i.e., unbrt>O) trace out and paths of interest rate responses. Supposeregime H is in place in period t. Then there are two possible values for r in

are respectively[-70, 73] and [-265, 305]. These ranges do not incfudeextreme values at either ends. Two regimeperiodsare identifiedin the same way as in the text. For the sampleperiod used in the study, the hypotheticalcase of seeing a large change in the interest rate when inflation is low and stable does not exist. Furthermore, the size of rate change is only part of the properties used for regime

**determination.Thus,this potentialpitfallof the modelspecification doesnot posea problemfor the currentanalysis.
**

“T0 be more precise, the interest rate responses also depend upon the relevant past history of the regimes. Suppose thatweare in regimeH in period t when there is a surprise increase in nonborrowed reserves. The shape of the interest rate responses to this shock in future periods (i.e., t+l. t+2,...) will dependon how we arrived in periodt, or the past realizationsof the regimes. That is, the responseof the interestrate when S(t-4)=H, S(t-3)=H,S(t-2)=H. and S(t-1)=H will be differentfrom that when S(t-4)=H. S(t-3)=H, S(t-2)=L, and S(t-l)=L. For simplicity, this complicationwill not be considered. 12 . .

period t+l for each of the possible regimes, i.e., r~+[ S(t+l) = H I S(t) = H) and rl+,(S(t+l) ( = L I S(t) = H). Given that regime H is in period t, the probabilitiesfor each of the two values are q and l-q, respectively. Since the regime can shifi in each period, there are 2k distinct paths along which r responsecan evolve k periods hence. For each of these paths, we can assign probabilitiesconditionalon the regime of period t. Furthermore,we can determinethe most likely path by finding an outcomewith the highest probabilityof occurringin each period. For the estimated values of p and q and for k less than 31, the

most likely sequence of regimes over time is S(t) = S(t+l) = S(t+2) = .... = S(t+k) = H. This

**path has the largest probabilityof q kof all sequenceswith the length k when regime H is in
**

the initial period.15 Similarly, the most likely sequence of regimes over time is S(t) = S(t+l) = s(t+2) = .... = S(t+k) = L, when period t regime is L. This event has the largest conditional probability p ‘. Figure 4 shows the cumulative changes in r in response to a unbr shock for each case

**describedabove. The shock is assumed to be one-time, that is, growth in money is held to
**

zero before and afier period t. Its size is 2 x o~(H), i.e., two times the standard error of growth in nonbon-owed reserves in the historical regime H sample period. The standard error is 2.11 percent.

The responsesof changes in the interestrate in the two regimes clearly diverge. A

IsThis can be shown as fo[lows: Since both p and q are greater than 0.5, q k > q ‘-1(l-q). The former is the probability that regime H remains throughoutk periods starting in t. However, p is greater than

q accordingto the estimates shown in Table 3. Thus, it is possible that the probabilityassociated with the event that the regime is switched from H to L early on and the economy remains in regime L thereafter would be greater than that of the event of regime H remaining in place throughoutk periods. The mostly likely candidate is when the switch from H to L occurs in period t+l and regime L remains thereafter. The associated probability is (l-q) p ‘-l. It turns out that q k is greater than (l-q) p k” for k less than 31, for the estimated va[ues of p and q.

13

.

negative interest

rate response

lasts less than three months

in regime

H, then gets reversed.

The relative size of responses for each regime is misleading because they are not adjusted for estimation uncertainty. For example, confidence intervals constructed allowing for 1.5 times .

the standard error of each coefficient for the first two periods for regime H are [0.29, -10.06], [8.46, -9.30] and for regime L, [-0.02, -1.41] and [-0.41, -3.14] .16 That is. for regime H, the

**confidenceinterval for the responseof r in the initial period includes zero. On the other
**

hand, similar confidence bands of r for regime L do not include zero for at least two periods.

., Startingin the fourth month afier the initial shock, the interest rate starts nslng sharplyabove the initial level. That is, the cumulativechange in the interest rate turns positive. In contrast, the cumulativechanges in the interestrate remain negative for ten months in regime L. In other words, the interestrate will remain below the level it was at before the initial period for at least ten months followingthe unexpectedincreasein nonborrowedreserves. The duration of the liquidity effect is at least three times longer in the regime L period comparedto regime H. The overall impact of a reserve innovationwill be counteredquickly and thus will be more short-livedin regime H than in regime L. The fomer appears to illustratean overwhelminganticipatedinflationeffect. in contrast to the modest liquidityeffect seen in the low inflation periods. Thus, it is not surprisingthat studies using differentsample periods find both positive and negativecomovementpatterns between money and interestrates. This obsemationconfirmsa finding regardingthe impulse responsepattern between

‘bTheupper and lower bounds for regime S are calculated as follows: upper(S) = (zinbr) x (~O~(S)+1.5x s.e.(~O~(S)))+ v(S), and lower(S) = (unbr) x (~O~(S)- 1.5x s.e.(~O~(S)))+ P(S). The choice of the 5 YO confidencelevel criteria and the emor band constructionare somewhatarbitrary. This analysis is meant to be suggestive. 14

.

the funds rate and nonbonowed reservesby Pagan and Robertson(1994). In response to an innovationin reserves,the funds rate initiallyfalls, but is shortly followedby a bounce back. They find the size of this bounce back to be much larger for the sample from 1974 to 1993, comparedto that of the 1959 to 1993sample. Remarkably,the size of the bounce back is larger than the initial fall in the rate of the first sample.” A high bounce back is

a

distinct characteristicof regime H. Accordingto Figure 2,

the post-1974samplehas a high concentrationof observationsbelongingto the high inflation regime comparedto the earlier period. Thus, as a whole, the latter sample period would exhibit more regime H patterns than the 1959-1993sample. It is interestingto note that the reduced form equation could capturepropertiesidentifiedby a more fully specified multivariatesystemof equations once the potentialshifis in the regimesare allowed.

2. Dynamic Responses when Regimes Switch The quantitativeanalysis so far focuseson cases when one regime persists. Further examinationof dynamicresponsesof the interestrate in cases when regimes switch also yields interestingresults. Though this paper’sanaiysis does not explain why regime switches occur, it does offer an insight on what happenswhen the regime switchestake place. We then use this to see whether the estimatedmodel is economicallysensible. Supposethat the economyhas been in a low inflationregime,or regime L for awhile. Furthermore,the monetaryauthorityhas continuedto exploit a favorable‘liquidityeffect’

.

environmentby generatinga series of reserve innovationsas describedabove. As a

“Figures 4C, 4D, 8A, and 8B of Pagan and Robertson (1994). 15

consequence,a shifi from a low inflationto a high inflation regime takes place in period t+l and remainsthereafter. However,the reserve supply imovation is assumedto take place in period t as before. This scenariois representedby the sequence {S(t-4)= S(t-3) = .. = S(t) =

L, S(t+l) = s(t+2) = ....= H}, and will be referred to as the switch (LIH).

Figure 5 comparesthe resultingcumulativechanges in the funds rate to those cases when the regime remains in H and L throughout for the same unt)r~. The switch (LIH) is associatedwith the largest increasein the finds rate out of the three cases. It even surpasses the increasein the regime H case. Six months after the shock (i.e., in period t+7), the

cumulative increase in the interest rate in the switch (LIH) case is about three times larger

than that in the regime H case.

That

is, the rise in the interest rate in the period followinga

transition from regime L to H is even larger than the increase in the rate when regime H remains in place throughout.This extra increase in the rate can be thought of as an inflation penalty, or an added cost of enteringa high inflation regime. Symmetrically,we can considerthe case of switch (1-?IL). Suppose the economyhas been in a high inflationregime. or regime H, for awhile but the monetaryauthority has successfilly conveyedits intentionto restrain inflation in the fiture. As a consequence,a shifi from a high to low inflationregime takes place in period t+l and remains thereafter. This scenariois representedby the sequence {S(t-4)= S(t-3) = .. = S(t)= H, S(t+l) = S(t+2)

= ....= L}.

Figure 6 compares the resulting cumulative changes in the fids rate to those cases when the regime remains in H and L throughout. The switch (HIL) is associatedwith the

**largest decrease in the rate out of the three cases. even surpassingthe fall in the regime L
**

q

16

case. Six months after the shock (i.e., in period t+7), the cumulative decrease in the interest rate associated with the switch (HIL) case is about 20 times that of the regime H case. That is, the magnitude of a fall in the interest rate in the period immediately following a transition from regime H to L is even larger than that of a decreasein the rate in the regime L period.

This can be thought of as a deflationbonus, or an added benefit of enteringthe low inflation regime. These dynamic propertiesof the estimatedmodel are indeedeconomicallysensible. An identicalimovation in money generatesa rising interestrate soonerduring high inflationaryperiods than during low inflationperiods. Furthermore,the precedinganalysis indicatesthat interest rate has to rise by a large amount as the economyenters into a high inflation(regime)period afier being in a low inflationperiod for awhile. That is, the net increasein the rate following an innovationin money during such a transitionperiod is much larger than the increase in the rate caused by the same money innovationwhen high inflation has been in place throughout. This is intuitive becauseboth a higher inflationexpectation and inflationrisk premia will be incorporatedinto interestrates for the first time during such a transitionperiod. The converseholds. That is, the interestrate falls by a large amount with the onset of a low inflationperiod afier a stretch of high inflation.

‘80ne could interpret this result in the following way, Suppose the economy has been in a low inflation regime for awhile. Agents would accumulate a large real balance as the low inflation environment is favorable for holding money. Suppose the economy unexpectedlyenters into a high inflation regime, which is expectedto persist for a while. Then, everyonewill try to reduce their real balance holdings.This will be possible only when there is a large run-up in price levels, perhaps more than what would be the case if the economyhad been in an inflationaryregime for the whole time. The deflationarycase can be explainedby the reverse of this scenario. That is, there will be a rush to build up real balanceswhen the economymoves into a low inflationregime from a high inflationone, causing price levels to fail.

.

V. Discussion

Two alternate interpretationsseem most plausible--eitherthe observed shifi relationshipsmainly representthose in the monetarypolicy stance, or they representshifis in what financialmarkets’perceivedas the prevailinginflation regime. Supposemovementsin the interestrate and nonborrowedreservesmostly representthe Fed’sactions. In this case, the two regimes can be readily understoodas capturingthe inflationarytendency of monetary policy. That is, the stance of monetarypolicy is a key determinantof a higher average inflationrate associatedwith regime H. Active intervention either to generate surprise

changes in the bds rate, or to counter reserve demand shocks, could account for the high

variability of regime H. Accordingly, the converse wilI be true for regime L. That is, both a

less inflationarymonetarypolicy stance and less active interventionto counter the reserve demand shocks describe the periodsbelongingto regime L. However,there seemsto be seeminglyobvious mismatchesif we take this interpretation. For example,Figure 2 indicatesthat the period from early 1979to the end of 1982was governed by regime H. Accordingto historicalevidence,substantialtighteningof monetarypolicy seemed to have started much sooner than, say, 1982. Allowing some lag time in pattern recognitioncould explain such a mismatch. The estimatedtiming of regimes is based on a very limited informationset. namely,histories of the interest rate changesand reseme imovations. Thus, for example,the model does not know that an increasein the volatility of the interest rate during the 1979-1982period was mainly due to a suspensionof interest rate smoothingpursuedby the Fed throughoutthe 1970s. Therefore,interpreting periods of regimes H and L to be capturingthe inflationarytendencyof monetarypolicy

18

warrantscaution. An alternativeinterpretationis that the two regimes might be capturingwhat financial markets perceivethe prevailinginflationregime to be. For example,the yield on 30-year Treasurybonds rose only graduallyuntil mid-1979,despite the fact that relativelyhigh inflationprevailedthroughoutthe precedingthree years. The implicit price deflator rarely went below 7 percentduring that period. This observationnotwithstanding,the public might not have been sure about how long the spell was going to last (Goodfriend(1993)). This could explain why Figure 2 does not identi~ the late 1970sas a high inflation regime period. On the other hand, there was a rapid run-up in the long rate in rnid-1983due to a serious ‘inflationscare’. 9 This set off the run-up in the fids rate to August 1984. The rise ’ in the model’sestimate of the probabilityof high inflationregime being in place in 1984 could be partly explainedby this chain of events. Observationsso far suggestthat we need more structureto understandthe nature of the regimes and their shifts. In particular,specifyingthe market for federal tids more explicitly should be usefil if we are going to attributethe observedchangesto those of the monetarypolicy stanceper se (Coleman,Gilles and Labadie (1994) and Hamilton(1994)). Also, an identificationschemeproposed in Leeperand Gordon (1995) that structurally distinguishesreserve supply and demand shocks might yield informativeresults. However,the fact remains that regime H periods have a significantlyhigher average inflationrate comparedto regime L periods. This suggests a weaker or narrowersecond

‘9Goodfriend (1983)definesthe ‘inflationscare’as a significantrise in long-ratesin the absenceof an aggressive funds rate tightening,thus mainly reflecting rising expected long-run inflation. 19

.

interpretatiOn. The two regimes represent two distinct environments, largely affected by the prevailing inflation trend.

V. Conclusion

This paper examinedthe potential influenceof monetarypolicy regime changeson the liquidity effect in the context of a bivariatereduced form relationship. The stochasticregime switchingmodel is able to capture some statisticallyand economicallysignificantpatternsthat are distinct across the two posited regimes. Most significantis the identificationof each regime with high and low inflationperiods. It’salso shown that the divergencein the dynamic money-interestrate relationship across low and high inflationperiods can be quite significant. Examinationsof dynamic propertiesof the estimatedmodel indeed yield economicallysensible results. In general, a

high inflation regime is associated with a stronger anticipated inflation effect. Furthermore, results indicate that the interest rate has to rise by a large amount as the economy enters into a high inflation (regime) period afier being in a low inflation period for awhile. That is, the net increase in the rate following an innovation in money during such a transition period is

much larger than the increasein the rate caused by the same money innovationwhen high inflation has been in place throughout. This is intuitive because both a higher inflation expectationand inflationrisk premia will be incorporatedinto interest rates for the first time during such a transitionperiod. The conversealso holds. Given these findings,the potential regime shift warrantsmore attention in fiture empirical investigationsof the liquidityeffect. However,the reduced form nature of the analysis puts a limit on answering&her

20

structuralquestions. Incorporatingmore structurein the model specification,parallel to the recent developmentin the conventionalliquidity effect literature,might be necessaryfor strongeridentification.

21

References

3

Ammer, J., and A.D. Brunner,(1994), “U.S. MonetaryPolicy and Business Cycle Prediction Using a Switching-RegimeModel,”manuscript. Boldin (1992), “Using SwitchingModels to Study Business Cycle Asymmetries:1.Overview of Methodologyand Application,”Federal ReserveBank of New York ResearchPaperNo. 9211. Christian, L.J. (1994), “Comment”on ‘A Model of the Federal Funds Market,’by Coleman. Gilles and Labadie. manuscript. Christian, L.J., and M. Eichenbaum(1992), “Identificationand the Liquidity Effect of a MonetaryPolicy Shock,”in A. Cukierman,,Z. Hercowitz,and L. Leideman, eds., Business Cycles, Growth and Political Economy, Cambridge,MA. MIT Press, pp. 335-370.

and C. Evans (1994), “The Effect of MonetaryPolicy Shocks:

Evidencefrom’the Flow’of Funds,”NBER WorkingPaper 4699. Coleman,W. J., C. Gilles, and P. Labadie(1994), “A Model of the Federal Funds Market,” manuscript.

, and (1992), “The Liquidity Premium in AverageInterest Rates,” Journ;l of Monetary Economics, 30, pp.449-465.

**Filardo, A. J., (1994), “BusinessCycle Phases and Their TransitionDynamics.”JournaZ of
**

Business and Economic Statistics 12, pp.299-308.

Fuerst, T.S., (1992), “Liquidity, Loanable Funds, and Real Activity,” Journal of Monetary Economics 29, pp.3-24.

Garcia. R., (1992), “Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov SwitchingModels,”workingpaper, Universityof Montreal. Goodfriend,M., (1993), “InterestRate Policy and the Inflation Scare Problem: 1979-1992,” Economic Quarter@, Federal ReserveBank of Richmondvol. 79. Hamilton,J.D., (1994), “The Daily Market for Fed Funds,” Universityof Califomi< San Diego working paper.

, (1994),

**TimeSeries AnaZysis, Princeton,NJ. PrincetonUniversityPress.
**

22

, (1989), “A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time 57, Series and the Business Cycle,” Eeonometrica pp.357-384.

Hansen, B. E., (1993), “InferenceWhen a Nuisance Parameteris Not Identifiedunder the Null Hypothesis.”Universityof Rochester.Mimeo. Huh, C. G., (1995), “RegimeSwitchingin the DynamicRelationshipbetweenthe Federal Funds Rate and NonborrowedReserves,”working paper, Federal ReserveBank of San Francisco. Jefferson,P.N., (1994), “Qualitativeand QuantitativeInformationand the Stanceof Monetary Policy,”working paper, Universityof California,Berkeley.

Kim, C. (1994), “Linear Dynamic Models with Markov-Switching,” Joumal of Econometrics, 60, pp. 1-22. Leeper, E.M., and D. B. Gordon (1992), “In Search of Liquidity Effect,” Journal of Monetary

Econo?niCS

12, pp. 29-55.

, (1993), “The DynamicImpactsof Monetary Policy: An Exercisein

, and

TentativeIdentification,”working paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. LeRoy, S.F., (1984), “NominalPrices and Interest Rates in General Equilibrium:Money Shocks,”Journal of Business 57, pp. 177-195. Mishkin,F. S., (1992). “ISthe Fisher Effect for Real?,”Journal of Monetary Economics 30,

pp. 195-215.

**, (1982), “MonetaryPolicy and Short-termInterest Rates: An EfficientMarketsRational ExpectationsApproach,”JournaZ of Finance 37, pp.63-72.
**

Reichenstein, W., (1987), “The Impact of Money on Short-term Interest Rates,” Economic Inquiry 25, pp.67-82.

Pagan, A.R., and J.C. Robertson(1994), “Resolvingthe Liquidity Effect,” manuscript. Strongin,S., (1992), “The Identificationof MonetaryPolicy Disturbances:Explainingthe LiquidityPuzzle,”Federal ReserveBank of Chicago,WP 92-27. Thornton,D.L., (1988), “The Effect of MonetaryPolicy on Short-TermInterestRates”

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 70, pp.53-72.

23

Table 1. Results without Common Mean: Model I

4

3 P~(St) trt-j -

rt s ~r(St)

+~

j=1

P~(s~-j)l+ ~ b~(s~)‘nbrt-i + ct(sf)

i =0

Variable

Coefficients(S= L)

Coefficients(S= H)

P,

0.343 (0.33)

2.248 (1.35)**

p “m(s J

-0.211 (0.09)***

-1.426 (0.69) **

p ‘m(SJ

-0.137 (0.10)*

-0.105 (1.31)

p 2m (SJ

0.031(0.10)

0.175 (0.55)

p ‘m(SJ

-0.046 (0.13)

0.005 (0.19)

02

4.198(0.41)

74.249(12.88)

P

0.975(0.01)

q

0.906(0.04)

Log likelihood

-594.71

***, **, ~d * reswctively denotecases significantat 1, 5 and 10 percent level.

24

Table 2. Resu16 witi Common Mean: Model II

i

Variable

Coefficients (S = L)

Coefficients (S = H)

P,=

v.

0.259 (0.18) *

14.25 (3.14) ***

p ‘m(s,)

-0.229 (0.09) ***

-0.004 (0.10)

~ ‘m(s ,)

-0.115 (0.10)

0.539 (0.36)

p 2m(s J

0.023 (0.09)

-0.310 (0,48)

B ‘In(s t)

0.042 (0.08)

0.658 (0.35) **

02

4.40 (0.46)

75.75 (14.84)

P

0.983 (0.01)

q

0.925 (0.03)

Log likelihood

-595.04

*****9 **7 ~d * respectively denote cases significant at 1, 5 and 10 percent level.
**

25

Figure 1: Supply and Demand for Nonborrowed Reserves, ~o Regime World

d

FYFF

Y % x

x Y

x

v

Demand(H)

x

supply (H)

Supply(L)

26

.

**Figure 2: Inferred Probability, Prob[S(t)=H It,t-l,...]
**

1.0

PROB . —

I

0.8

0.6

0.4

.

0.2

0.0

u

I

I

r

I

I

I

I

1

64

69

74

79

84

89

**Figure 3: CPI Inflation and Inferred Probability (right scale)
**

3.5

PROB ----

1.0

3.0 2.5 2.0 0.6 1.5 1.0

.

0.8

0.4

.

0.5 0.0 -0.5

0.2

64

70

0.0 76 27 82 88

i

\

\

n

\ \ \ \ \ \

z

\ \ \ \ \ \

.

\

0

\ \ \ \ \

u)

\ \ \ \

\

\

\

a

\ \ \ \ \ \

\

\

\

\

\

\

\

\

\

\

\

\

\

\

\

\ < \

I I

I

I

x

w

I

I

I

I

I

8

0

,

28

**Figure5: CumulativeEffectof One-timeReserveInnovationon FYFF; S(t)=H
**

Regime Switching Case: S(t)= L, S(t+l)= ... = H

200

150

100

50

0

-50

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

**Figure 6: CumulativeEffectof One-timeReservehnovation on FYFF;S(t)=L
**

Regime Switching Case: S(t)= H, S(t+l)= ... = L

150 100 50 0 -50 -1oo

.

**-150 -200 -250
**

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun 59

Jul

**International Finance Discussion Papers IFDP m
**

1996 uthor(~

536

Regime Switching in the Dynamic Relationship

Chan Huh

betweenthe Federal Funds Rate and Innovationsin NonborrowedReserves 535 534 533 The Risks and Implicationsof ExternalFinancial Shocks: Lessons from Mexico CurrencyCrashes in EmergingMarkets: An EmpiricalTreatment RegionalPatterns in the Law of One Price: The Roles of Geographyvs. Currencies

Edwin M. Truman Jeffrey A. Frankel Andrew K. Rose Charles Engel John H. Rogers

532 531 530 529 528 527 526

AggregateProductivityand the Productivity of Aggregates A Century of Trade Elasticitiesfor Canada, Japan, and the United States ModeliingInflationin Australia Hyperinflationand Stabilisation: Cagan Revisited On the Inverseof the CovarianceMatrix in Portfolio Analysis InternationalComparisonsof the Levels of Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing Uncertainty,InstrumentChoice, and the Uniqueness of Nash Equilibrium: Macroeconomic and MacroeconomicExamples TargetingInflation in the 1990s: Recent Challenges

**Susanto Basu John G. Femald Jaime Marquez Gordon de Brouwer
**

Neil R. Ericsson

Marcus Miller Lei Zhang Guy V.G. Stevens Peter Hooper ElizabethVrankovich Dale W. Henderson Ning S. Zhu

525

RichardT. Freeman

Jonathan L. Willis

Please address requests for copies to InternationalFinance DiscussionPapers, Division of InternationalFina~ce,Stop 24; Board of Governorsof the Federal Rese~e System, Washington,DC 20551.

30

**International Finance Discussion Papers IFDP * Titl~
**

1995

Author(s)

524 523 522 521 520 519 518 517

Economic Development and Intergenerational Economic Mobility

Murat F. Iyigun

Murat F. Iyigun

Human Capital Accumulation,Fertility and Growth: A Re-Analysis Excess Returnsand Risk at the Long End of the

Treasury Market: An EGARCH-M Approach The Money TransmissionMechanismin Mexico

Allan D. Brunner David P. Simon Martina Copelman Alejandro M. Werner John Ammer Allan D. Brunner Prakash Loungani Nathan Sheets Hali J. Edison William R. Melick Vivek Ghosal Prakash Loungani Jon Faust Ralph Tryon Prakash Loungani Phillip Swagel Nathan Sheets Allan D. Brunner Steven B. Kamin Vivek Ghosal Prakash Loungani Enrique G. Mendoza Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti Patrick Asea

When is MonetaryPolicy Effective? Central Bank Independence,Inflationand Growth in TransitionEconomies AlternativeApproachesto Real ExchangeRates and Real Interest Rates: Three Up and Three Down Product market competitionand the impact of price uncertaintyon investment: some evidence from U.S. manufacturingindustries Block DistributedMethodsfor Solving Multi-countryEconometricModels Supply-sidesources of inflation: evidence from OECD countries

Capital Flight from the Countries in Transition: Some Theory and EmpiricalEvidence

516 515 514 513

Bank Lendingand EconomicActivity in Japan: Did “FinancialFactors”Contributeto the Recent Downturn? Evidenceon Nominal Wage RigidityFrom a Panel of U.S. ManufacturingIndustries Do Taxes Matter for Long-RunGrowth?: Harberger’s SupemeutralityConjecture

512 511

31

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