Solar Market Insight Report 2012 Q3 | SEIA

Solar Market Insight Report 2012 Q3
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The quarterly SEIA/GTM Research U.S. Solar Market Insight™ report shows the major trends in the U.S. solar industry. Learn more about the U.S. Solar Market Insight Report ( .

1. Introduction
Despite some manufacturing plant closures and capacity reductions, the global solar industry remains in a state of heavy oversupply as the end of 2012 approaches. PV module manufacturing capacity will stand at roughly 70 GW[1] (#_ftn1) at year ’s end, while global demand is estimated at 31 GW. These manufacturing woes have coincided with (and, to an extent, fueled) booming solar demand in the U.S., where domestic PV installations more than doubled in 2010 and again in 2011. In 2012, we forecast a growth rate of 70 percent – still much higher than the 14 percent rate of expected global market growth. As the numbers throughout this report show, the U.S. solar market is still booming. Residential and commercial installations were strong in the third quarter of 2012, and many large utility solar projects are expected to come online in the fourth quarter. Still, the picture is not entirely rosy for all downstream players in the U.S. A number of currently expanding markets (e.g. Massachusetts) are headed for a downturn in 2013, while other historically booming markets (e.g. New Jersey) are midway through a correction period. Successful installers, developers, and EPCs will be able to navigate the choppy waters of these markets, but success will require a deep understanding of near-term market dynamics and other unique requirements needed to play in each territory. GTM Research forecasts that 3.2 GW of PV will be installed in 2012, up from 1.9 GW in 2011. Given this growth, U.S. share of global installations will rise to over 10% from 7% in 2011 and less than 5% in 2010. GTM Research also expects that at least 21 individual states will install over 10 MW of PV in 2012, up from only four in 2008. KEY FINDINGS

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2013 19:00 .org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-20.03.1 Q3 2012 State PV Installation Rankings 2 of 14 07.. leading to 70% annual installation growth in 2012 on 3.2 GW installed Concentrating Solar Power (CSP and CPV) All phases of BrightSource’s Ivanpah project are expected to come online in 2013 Abengoa’s Solana Generating Station is over 75% complete and expected to be online in summer 2013 SolarReserve continues PPA discussions with Tri-State and Xcel for its 200 MWac Saguache project in Colorado The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) unanimously approved an amended PPA for BrightSource’s Sonoran West project Figure 1.9 GW of PV operating in the U. from over 271. Photovoltaics (PV) PV installations totaled 684 MW in Q3 2012.S.000 installations We expect record installations in Q4. thanks primarily to growth in California and Massachusetts There is now a total of 5.Solar Market Insight Report 2012 Q3 | SEIA http://www. up 44% over Q3 2011[2] (#_ftn2) The residential market grew 12% over Q2 2012 and had its largest quarter in history The non-residential market grew 24% over Q2 2012..seia.

.1.03. continue to be the largest component of solar market growth in the U. as the utility market is simply too volatile 3 of 14 07. installed 684 MW in Q3 2012. This represents a 12% decline from Q2 2012 but 44% growth over Q3 2011. 2.Solar Market Insight Report 2012 Q3 | SEIA http://www. which convert sunlight directly to electricity.S. it is important to take the utility market out of the equation when seeking meaningful conclusions within quarterly installation figures. 2. Photovoltaics (PV) Photovoltaics (PV).2013 19:00 .. Installations The As always.seia.

relatively speaking. during which 792 MW of PV were installed. our forecast calls for 1..03.992 MW – more than the 2011 annual figure. Both the residential and non-residential markets grew over Q2 in more than half the states we track. In this context.. enormous. in order for the market to reach the 3. the U. with 20% quarterover-quarter growth in the distributed generation (DG) market.2 GW we forecast for the year. FIGURE 2. PV Installations by Market Segment.S. the largest quarter in the history of the 2011-Q3 2012 4 of 14 07.S.S. Meanwhile.2013 19:00 . market was Q4 2011.1: U.2 U. installed a total of 1.202 MW to be installed in the fourth quarter of this year.seia. Still.Solar Market Insight Report 2012 Q3 | SEIA http://www. Through the first three quarters of the year. and dependent on individual projects. Q1 2010 to Q3 2012 Figure 2. Q3 was quite strong. the fourth quarter will have to be. For context. PV Installations by Market Segment.

The one exception was New Jersey. Of this 10 Market Insight Report 2012 Q3 | SEIA http://www. residential installations have grown between 3% and 21% on a national . which makes the residential sector by far the most stable segment in the U.. where residential installations declined along with the rest of the market.seia. This is particularly impressive given that New Jersey (formerly the largest non-residential market in the country) dropped by 24 MW in Q3. After a weak Q2. Hawaii. We expect this to remain true in 2012. particularly in California. which is why our forecast for the utility market shows slowing growth in the out years. Residential PV installations continued to grow incrementally in Q3 2012. However. Figure 2. We expect this to have a meaningful impact on installations in 2015-2016.greentechmedia. new utility PPA procurement is down and developers are having a harder time finding buyers than they did even one year ago. The imbalance between completed and late-stage development projects will result in significant installation growth figures in the 2012-2014.. Q3 2012 5 of 14 07. Second-tier residential markets also generally had a strong quarter. States with notable growth in Q3 included California and Massachusetts.1 GWdc of utility PV projects operating in the U.S. There were 21 utility projects (or phases of projects) completed in Q3 2012 ranging in size from 300 kW to 115 MW. are available in the full report (http://www. As with other market segments.03. and Massachusetts. Third-party owned residential PV systems continue to far outnumber direct purchases by homeowners in mature markets.S. the non-residential market bounced back in Q3 2012 with 24% quarterly growth.4 MW in Q2 2012.2013 19:00 . up from 46. fully 3 GW comes from the ten largest projects in construction.3 State-Level Installations. Note: Historical and forecasted installation figures by state and by market segment. and Colorado. market. Arizona. the non-residential market tends to trend upward in the fourth quarter of each year as installers rush to complete projects within a calendar year. with expansion in Arizona. as well as stateby-state market analysis. In each of the last five quarters. as compared to 10 GW of projects with PPAs that are not yet operating.4 MW installed. California led the way in Q3 2012 with 52. Most notable among these were phases of some of the largest projects in development – Agua Caliente in Arizona and California Valley Solar Ranch in California. There are currently 2. all of which will be selling power to utilities in California.

.2013 19:00 .03. Q1 2011 – Q3 2012 6 of 14 Installed Price Figure 2. 2.4 Average Installed Price by Market Segment.2..Solar Market Insight Report 2012 Q3 | SEIA http://www.

18/W.56/W. This capacity-weighted number is heavily impacted by the volume of utility-scale solar installed in a given quarter.00/W range. average installed prices were down across the board. SREC states. helping installation figures rebound from a weak Q2 2012. installed costs declined by Within each market segment individually.4%. Massachusetts. installed prices fell by 30. For projects in excess of 100 kW. which has very low turn-key costs. from $3. Year-over-year. UTILITY system prices once again declined Q/Q. Year-over-year.60/W in Q2 2012 to $2.25/W-$2.45/W to $5.2013 19:00 . First Solar. which leaves limited margins for developers and installers. such as New Jersey and Massachusetts.Solar Market Insight Report 2012 Q3 | SEIA http://www. the national weighted-average system price rose by 3.3%.40/W in Q3 2012. from $4.45/W to $3. as the national average installed price dropped from $5. 7 of 14 07.31/W to $4. Year-over-year. and Colorado—and it was not uncommon for final installed prices to be in the $4.. Quarter-over-quarter.seia. California also experienced a significant price decrease. helped to drive down the overall national price. of which there was substantially more installed in Q2 2012 compared to Q3 2012.03. dropping from $2.21/W. Arizona.. brought a large majority of new utility capacity online in Q3. final project prices were consistently in the $2.7%. average installed costs declined by 19. New Jersey. It should be noted that prices reported in this section are weighted averages based on all systems that were completed in Q3 across all locations. RESIDENTIAL system prices fell 4. NON-RESIDENTIAL system prices fell 3. Year-over-year.4% from Q2 2012 to Q3 2012. installed costs declined by 15.75/W range. Installed prices came down in all major residential markets —California.0% Q/Q.

03. Cell.S. Figure 2.5kW – 10kW sloped roof in California using a penetrating rail-based systemThis edition also marks the beginning of our coverage of pricing and market dynamics for PV balance of systems.3 Component Pricing Pricing for polysilicon and PV components remained soft in Q3 2012 due to the persistence of the global oversupply environment that the industry has faced since early 2011. Many manufacturers continue to obtain U.10/W. Blended polysilicon prices declined by 15% to $22/kg. Coupled with the U. Factory gate pricing for PV mounting structures differ heavily depending on market segment. Wafer. layout and project size.32/W.S.2013 19:00 .. 2.35/W.24/W to $0. we note that the values 8 of 14 07. Blended module ASPs for Q3 2012 were down to $0..S. For example. For simplicity. manufacturers reported costs for the third quarter for commercial systems anywhere between $0. the outcome of the trade dispute in Europe may have a greater impact on U.-bound cells via tolling from Taiwan with an estimated cost impact of less than $0. This does not necessarily prohibit Chinese manufacturers from pricing modules below their domestic competitors. supply than the U.75/W.seia.S.S. decision alone. Q4 2011-Q3 2012 Residential Rooftop – 7. and Module Prices. configuration.Solar Market Insight Report 2012 Q3 | SEIA http://www. As the International Trade Commission (ITC) has issued its final decision in the antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations against Chinese c-Si cell manufacturers.5 U. helping to drive down the average. GTM Research maintains that tariffs will not have a material impact on pricing in the U. a staggering 43% lower than Q3 2011 levels of $1. which can complicate an “average” cost. AD/CVD decision. starting with PV mounting structures.S.

2013 19:00 .6 U.. reported below reflect the mounting structure-only costs of the following system types: Commercial Rooftop – 100 kW – 500 kW flat roof ballasted system in California requiring no additional structural support Ground Mount Fixed Tilt – 1 MW – 5 MW fixed tilt ground mount system in California. Q3 2012 2. Figure 2.S.4. grounding requirements and additional structural support. not including foundation structures Ground Mount Tracking – 5 MW – 10 MW one-axis tracker in California not including foundation structures Even with these baselines. note that PV mounting structure purchasers should consider the full implied cost of individual manufacturers rather than relying on quotes versus the national average.seia. Mounting Structure Pricing by End Market and Quarter. Market Outlook 9 of 14 07.03..Solar Market Insight Report 2012 Q3 | SEIA Differences in racking materials and design have different implications for labor costs.

We anticipate a continued downturn in New Jersey and Colorado. while the California forecast calls for 60 MW in residential installations. Specifically. we will be adding forecasts by state. This quarter we have overhauled our installation forecasts. To be sure. while the residential and non-residential forecasts have been increased.7 PV Installation Forecast. by market segment. there is one significant revision within our market In the out years of the forecast (2015-2016) our estimate of utility PV installations has decreased. Instead of providing three demand scenarios as we have in the past.2013 19:00 .. Apart from the utility sector. albeit slightly lower. we are expecting to see 40 MW of non-residential installations in Massachusetts over that time frame. respectively. Q4 developments in Massachusetts and California are worth noting. We expect a similar. the fourth quarter has been by far the largest for PV installations in the U. However. But we do expect growth across all market segments. with 3. we now focus on providing a single forecast with significantly increased detail. fourth quarter bump in 2012 with 1. PV market growth has largely remained steady this quarter.S. In 2010 and 2011. we expect the distributed generation sector to regain some of the market share it has been losing beginning 10 of 14 07. Specifically.S.2 GW expected in 2012 growing to nearly 8 GW in 2016. as well as including rolling quarterly forecasts – all of which are available in the full report..03. but robust growth in Hawaii and Arizona.Solar Market Insight Report 2012 Q3 | SEIA http://www. the fourth quarter represented 41% and 42% of all annual installations. 2010-2016E Our overall forecast for U.seia. Figure 2. or 38% of the annual total. As a result. much of this forecast hinges on the timely completion of a number of utility-scale projects currently in the late stages of construction. Historically.202 MW installed.

greentechmedia. in 2015. there were significant developments within the market: All phases of BrightSource’s Ivanpah project are expected online in 2013 Abengoa’s Solana Generating Station is over 75% complete and expected online in summer 2013 PPA discussions continue with Tri-State and Xcel for the 200 MWac Saguache project in Colorado The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) unanimously approved an amended PPA for BrightSource’s Sonoran West project Figure 3. Concentrating Solar Power While there was no additional concentrating solar capacity installed in Q3 2012. 2008-2016E Note: Installation forecast by state available in the full report (http://www.2013 19:00 .com /research/ussmi) 3..03. Figure 2.Solar Market Insight Report 2012 Q3 | SEIA http://www.. if not earlier.seia.8 PV Market Segmentation.1 Select Concentrating Solar Project Development Highlights 11 of 14

.2013 19:00 .03.000 pylons and heliostats installed Units 2 & 3: More than 63. but no commitment CPUC voted to deny cost recovery for SCE PPA based on price and value comparison CPUC voted to deny cost recovery for SCE PPA due to transmission uncertainty and interference with nearby military training operations Rio Mesa 1 CA CSP 250 2015 Siberia 1 & 2 CA CSP 400 2016 12 of 14 07.000 helio stats installed Flooding damaged 35 sections of mirrors. creating ~$3M in damage and extended project timeline Solana Generating Station AZ CSP 280 2013 Ivanpah CA CSP 392 2013 Genesis Solar Energy Project-1 Crescent Dunes Solar Energy Project CA CSP 125 2013 NV CSP 110 2013 BATZ Energy selected to supply sandwich panels for heliostats Palen Solar CA CSP 500 2014 CEC approves ownership transfer to BrightSource Abengoa Mojave Solar (AMS) CA CSP 280 2014 Installation 30% complete Saguache CO CSP 200 2015 PPA discussions with Tri-State and pylons and 26.Solar Market Insight Report 2012 Q3 | SEIA http://www. more than 49. expected online Summer 2013 Unit 1: Successfully aimed first 3 heliostats at Unit 1 boiler. PROJECT STATETECHNOLOGY CAPACITY EXPECTED PROJECT STATUS UPDATE (MWAC) COMPLETION Installation 75% complete. on track to begin hydro-testing.seia.

org) ) at SEIA. Research Associate SEIA Policy and Research Division: Tom Kimbis. These data provide the backbone of this Solar Market InsightTM report.S.2013 19:00 . Solar Analyst Scott Burger. Sonoran West CA CSP 200 2017 ASU CPV Project AZ CPV 1 2012 SunPower C7 Project AZ CPV 6 2013 [1] (#_ftnref1) All capacity figures are reported in direct current (DC) unless otherwise stated [2] (#_ftnref2) To ensure the upmost accuracy. Research Shyam Mehta. Strategy and External Affairs Justin (mailto:mhanis@seia.S. online Q4. Solar Analyst Carolyn ) or Jamie Nolan (jnolan@seia.S. Senior Analyst MJ Shiao. manufacturing. Senior Research Manager 13 of 14 07. * All figures sourced are from GTM Research.S. Solar Analyst Nicole Litvak. * Media inquiries should be directed to Nick Rinaldi ( manufacturers..S. in which we identify and analyze trends in U. Solar Market Insight ) at GTM Research or to Monique Hanis (mhanis@seia.seia. AUTHORS GTM Research Solar Analysts: Shayle Kann. visit www. each quarter new data is added to the U. Each quarter. utilities. Solar Market InsightTM is a quarterly publication of the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA)® and GTM Research. will begin construction in first half of 2013. we hope that Solar Market InsightTM will provide an invaluable decision-making tool for installers. data. Solar Market Insight. solar market ( (mailto:jnolan@seia. Vice President. policymakers and advocates alike. charts or analysis from this Executive Summary should be attributed to the SEIA/GTM Research U. investors. suppliers. solar demand.Solar Market Insight Report 2012 Q3 | SEIA (http://www. thus reported figures may not match those of previous iterations U.gtmresearch. As the U. and pricing by state and market segment. We also use this analysis to look forward and forecast demand over the next five years. Vice President. and state agencies to collect granular data on photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power. we survey nearly 200 installers.. For more detail on methodology and sources. * References. PROJECT STATETECHNOLOGY CAPACITY EXPECTED PROJECT STATUS UPDATE (MWAC) COMPLETION CPUC unanimously approved amended PPA SunPower driving piers into ground PPA with Tucson Electric . Senior Analyst Andrew Krulewitz.

Solar Market Insight Report 2012 Q3 | SEIA http://www.seia. N. DC 20004 14 of 14 07. Research & Policy Analyst Shawn Rumery.03. Research Associate Tags Market Research/Policy or Economic Analysis Publisher Solar Energy Industries Association Solar Energy Industries Association 505 9th Street. Suite 800.2013 19:00 .W. Will Lent...

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