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:

Shailendra Kumar

II sem

Sch. No. 122110105

Department of

Architecture and

Planning

MANIT Bhopal

Submitted to:

Dr. C.K Verma

Department of Mathematics

(Applied Mathematics)

MANIT Bhopal

2013

REPORT ON

BINOMIAL PROBABILITY

METHOD

Subject:

Statistics & Demography [UD 122 ]

MAULANA AZAD NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF

TECHNOLOGY, BHOPAL

Contents:

1. Introduction:

1.1. What is statistics?

1.2. Why the need for statistics?

1.3. Terminology:

2. Probability tests

3. Laws of probability

4. Binomial probability method

5. General formulae for finding binomial probability

6. Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation of binomial

distribution

7. Problems on binomial probability distribution

8. Bibliography

1. Introduction:

1.1. What is statistics?

- A branch of mathematics that provides techniques to analyse

whether or not your data is significant (meaningful).

- Statistical applications are based on probability statements.

- Nothing is “proved” with statistics.

- Statistics are reported.

- Statistics report the probability that similar results would occur if

you repeated the experiment.

1.2. Why the need for statistics?

- Statistics are used to describe sample populations as estimators of

the corresponding population.

- Many times, finding complete information about a population is

costly and time consuming. We can use samples to represent a

population.

1.3. Terminology:

- Variable: It is a continuous data. Data values can be any real

number or Measured data.

- Continuous variables: type of numbers associated with measuring

or weighing; any value in a continuous interval of measurement.

Examples: Weight of students, height of plants, time to flowering

- Discrete variables: type of numbers that are counted or

categorical. Examples: Numbers of boys, girls, insects, plants

- Population: It includes all members of a group. Example: all 9th

grade students in America, Number of 9th grade students at SR, No

absolute number

- Sample: It is used to make inferences about large populations.

Samples are a selection of the population. Example: 6th period

Accelerated Biology

- Probability: It means likelihood. It is a measure or estimation of

how likely it is that something will happen or that a statement is

true.

- Parameters: Quantities that describe a population characteristic.

They are usually unknown and we wish to make statistical

inferences about parameters. Different to perimeters.

- Descriptive Statistics: Quantities and techniques used to describe

a sample characteristic or illustrate the sample data e.g. mean,

standard deviation, box-plot

2. Probability tests

- What to do when you are comparing two samples to each other and

you want to know if there is a significant difference between both

sample populations

- (example the control and the experimental setup)

- How do you know there is a difference

- How large is a “difference”?

- How do you know the “difference” was caused by a treatment and

not due to “normal” sampling variation or sampling bias?

3. Laws of probability:

- The results of one trial of a chance event do not affect the results of

later trials of the same event. p = 0.5 ( a coin always has a 50:50

chance of coming up heads)

- The chance that two or more independent events will occur

together is the product of their changes of occurring separately. (

one outcome has nothing to do with the other)

- The probability that either of two or more mutually exclusive

events will occur is the sum of their probabilities (only one can

happen at a time).

4. Binomial probability method

The binomial probability method offers a simple but very useful model.

A binomial method is characterized by trials which either end in success

(heads) or failure (tails). These are sometimes called Bernoulli trials .

Suppose we have n Bernoulli trials and p is the probability of success on

a trial. Then this is a binomial model if

1. The Bernoulli trials are independent of one another.

2. The probability of success, p, remains the same from trial to trial.

A binomial method is an experiment which satisfies these four

conditions:

1. A fixed number of trials

2. Each trial is independent of the others

3. There are only two outcomes

4. The probability of each outcome remains constant from trial to

trial.

Examples of binomial experiments

- Tossing a coin 20 times to see how many tails occur.

- Asking 200 people if they watch ABC news.

- Rolling a die to see if a 5 appears.

Examples which aren't binomial experiments

- Rolling a die until a 6 appears (not a fixed number of trials)

- Asking 20 people how old they are (not two outcomes)

- Drawing 5 cards from a deck for a poker hand (done without

replacement, so not independent)

5. General formulae for finding binomial probability

r n r

r

n

q p c r P

÷

= ) (

q=1-p = probability of failure

p = probability of success r =successes

out of n trials

1 .... ) 2 ( ) 1 ( !

! )! (

!

x n x n nx n

r r n

n

C

r

n

÷ ÷ =

÷

=

6. Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation of binomial

The mean, variance, and standard deviation of a binomial distribution

are extremely easy to find.

7. Problems on binomial probability distribution

Q1. A coin is tossed four times, what is the probability of

getting.

1. No head

2. Exactly 1 head

3. Exactly 2 heads

4. At least 2 heads

5. At most 2 heads

SOL (i): By formula

Here,

r=0

p= probability of success=1/2

q= probability of failure=1/2

npq

npq

np

=

=

=

o

o

µ

2

n =

number

of trials

Probability

r n r

r

q p C r P

n

÷

= ) (

SOL (ii): By formula

Here,

r=1

p= probability of success=1/2

q= probability of failure=1/2

SOL (iii):

By formula

Here,

r=2

p= probability of success=1/2

q= probability of failure=1/2

4

1

)

16

1

(

! 3

! 3 4

)

2

1

( )

2

1

(

! 1 )! 1 4 (

! 4

)

2

1

( )

2

1

( ) 1 (

3 1

1 4 1

1

4

=

=

÷

=

=

÷

x

C P

16

1

)

2

1

( )

2

1

(

! 0 )! 0 4 (

! 4

)

2

1

( )

2

1

( ) 0 (

0 4 0

0 4 0

0

4

=

÷

=

=

÷

÷

C P

r n r

r

q p C r P

n

÷

= ) (

r n r

r

q p C r P

n

÷

= ) (

SOL (iv):

By formula

Here,

r=2+3+4

p= probability of success=1/2

q= probability of failure=1/2

8

3

)

16

1

(

! 2 ! 2

! 2 3 4

)

2

1

( )

2

1

(

! 2 )! 2 4 (

! 4

)

2

1

( )

2

1

( ) 2 (

2 2

2 4 2

2

4

=

=

÷

=

=

÷

x

x x

C P

r n r

r

q p C r P

n

÷

= ) (

16

11

)

16

1

(

! 4

! 4

)

16

1

(

! 3

! 3 4

8

3

)

2

1

( )

2

1

(

! 4 )! 4 4 (

! 4

)

2

1

( )

2

1

(

! 3 )! 3 4 (

! 4

8

3

)

2

1

( )

2

1

( )

2

1

( )

2

1

(

8

3

) 4 ( ) 3 ( ) 2 (

0 4 1 3

4 4 4

4

3 4 3

3

4 4

=

+ + =

÷

+

÷

+ =

+ + = + +

÷ ÷

x

C C P P P

SOL (v):

By formula

Here,

r=0+1+2 or 1-(iv)

p= probability of success=1/2

q= probability of failure=1/2

Q2. The mean and the variance of binomial distribution are

4 and 4/3.

i. Find the probability of two success

ii. The probability of more than two success

SOL:

Mean of binomial distribution=np=4

Variance of binomial distribution=npq=4/3

Putting the value of np in variance we get

4xq=4/3

Then q=1/3

So, p=1-q

i.e p=1-1/3

Therefore, p=2/3

And n=4/3pq

i.e n=6

r n r

r

q p C r P

n

÷

= ) (

16

15

)

16

11

( 1

) ( 1 ) 2 ( ) 1 ( ) 0 (

=

÷ =

÷ = + + iv P P P P

(i)

By formula

Here, r=2,

p= probability of success=2/3,

q= probability of failure=1/3

SOL (ii)

By formula

Here,

r=3+4+5+6

p= probability of success=2/3,

q= probability of failure=1/3

r n r

r

q p C r P

n

÷

= ) (

243

20

)

729

4

(

! 2 ! 4

! 4 5 6

)

81

1

)(

9

4

(

! 2 )! 2 6 (

! 6

)

3

1

( )

3

2

( ) 2 (

2 6 2

2

6

=

=

÷

=

=

÷

x

x x

C P

r n r

r

q p C r P

n

÷

= ) (

729

592

)

729

64

(

! 6 )! 6 6 (

! 6

)

3

1

)(

243

32

(

! 5 )! 5 6 (

! 6

)

9

1

)(

81

16

(

! 4 )! 4 6 (

! 6

)

27

1

)(

27

8

(

! 3 )! 3 6 (

! 6

)

3

1

( )

3

2

( )

3

1

( )

3

2

( )

3

1

( )

3

2

( )

3

1

( )

3

2

( ) 6 ( ) 5 ( ) 4 ( ) 3 (

6 6 6

6

6 5 6 5

5

6 4 6 4

4

6 3 6 3

3

6

=

÷

+

÷

+

÷

+

÷

=

+ + + = + + +

÷ ÷ ÷ ÷

C C C C P P P P

Q3. A test consists of 10 multiple choice questions with five choices

for each question. As an experiment, you GUESS on each and

every answer without even reading the questions.

What is the probability of getting exactly 6 questions correct on this

test?

SOL:

By formula

Here,

n=10

r=6

p= probability of success=1/5=0.2,

q= probability of failure=4/5=0.8

Q4. When rolling a die 100 times, what is the probability of

rolling a "4" exactly25 times?

SOL:

By formula

Here,

n=100

r=25

p= probability of success=1/6

q= probability of failure=5/6

r n r

r

q p C r P

n

÷

= ) (

006 . 0 005505024 . 0

) 4096 . 0 )( 000064 . 0 (

! 6 )! 6 10 (

! 10

) 8 . 0 ( ) 2 . 0 ( ) 6 (

6 10 6

6

10

~ =

÷

=

=

÷

C P

r n r

r

q p C r P

n

÷

= ) (

Q5. At a certain intersection, the light for eastbound traffic

is red for 15 seconds, yellow for 5 seconds, and green for 30

seconds. Find the probability that out of the next eight

eastbound cars that arrive randomly at the light, exactly

three will be stopped by a red light.

SOL:

By formula

Here,

n=8

r=3

p= probability of success=15/50

q= probability of failure=35/50

010 . 0 0098258819 . 0

)

6

5

( )

6

1

(

! 25 )! 25 100 (

! 100

)

6

5

( )

6

1

( ) 25 (

75 25

25 100 25

25

100

~ =

÷

=

=

÷

C P

r n r

r

q p C r P

n

÷

= ) (

254 . 0 25412184 . 0

)

50

35

( )

50

15

(

! 3 )! 3 8 (

! 8

)

50

35

( )

50

15

( ) 3 (

5 3

3 8 3

3

8

~ =

÷

=

=

÷

C P

Q6. The manufacturing sector contributes 17% of Canada's

gross domestic product. A customer orders 50 components

from a factory that has 99% quality production rate (99% of

the products are defect-free). Find the probability that:

i. none of the components in the order are defective.

ii. there are at least two defective products in the order.

SOL (i):

By formula

Here,

n=50

r=50

p= probability of success=0.99

q= probability of failure=0.01

SOL(ii):

By formula

Here,

n=50

r=0+1+2+3…+48

p= probability of success=0.99

q= probability of failure=0.01

r n r

r

q p C r P

n

÷

= ) (

605 . 0

) 01 . 0 ( ) 99 . 0 (

! 50 )! 50 50 (

! 50

) 01 . 0 ( ) 99 . 0 ( ) 50 (

0 50

50 50 50

50

50

=

÷

=

=

÷

C P

r n r

r

q p C r P

n

÷

= ) (

Q7. A baseball player comes to bat 4 times in a game. The

chance of a strike-out for this player is 30%. Find all possible

outcomes and their probabilities.

SOL(i):

By formula

Here,

n=4(number times to bat)

r=0, 1, 2, 3,4

p= probability of success=0.3

q= probability of failure=0.7

089 . 0

605 . 0 306 . 0 1

) 01 . 0 ( ) 99 . 0 ( ) 01 . 0 ( ) 99 . 0 ( 1

) 50 ( ) 49 ( 1

) 48 ( ..... ) 0 ( ) 2 (

0 50

50

50 1 49

49

50

=

÷ ÷ =

÷ ÷ =

÷ ÷ =

+ + =

C C

success p success p

success p success p f ailure P

r n r

r

q p C r P

n

÷

= ) (

Q8. A survey indicates that 41% of American women

consider reading as their favourite leisure time activity. You

randomly select four women and ask them if reading is their

favourite leisure-time activity. Find the probability that

i. exactly two of them respond yes

ii. at least two of them respond yes

iii. Fewer than two of them respond yes.

SOL (i):

By formula

Here,

n=4

r=2

p= probability of success=0.49

q= probability of failure=0.51

SOL (ii):

By formula

Here,

n=4

r=2,3,4

p= probability of success=0.49

35109366 . ) 3481 )(. 1681 (. 6

) 3481 )(. 1681 (.

4

24

) 59 . 0 ( ) 41 . 0 (

! 2 )! 2 4 (

! 4

) 59 . 0 ( ) 41 . 0 ( ) 2 (

2 4 2

2 4 2

2 4

= =

=

÷

=

=

÷

÷

C P

r n r

r

q p C r P

n

÷

= ) (

r n r

r

q p C r P

n

÷

= ) (

q= probability of failure=0.51

SOL (iii):

By formula

Here,

n=4

r=0, 1

p= probability of success=0.49

q= probability of failure=0.51

542 . 0

028258 162653 . 351093 .

) 4 ( ) 3 ( ) 2 ( ) 2 (

~

+ + =

+ + = > P P P x P

028258 . 0 ) 59 . 0 ( ) 41 . 0 ( ) 4 (

162653 . 0 ) 59 . 0 ( ) 41 . 0 ( ) 3 (

351093 . ) 59 . 0 ( ) 41 . 0 ( ) 2 (

4 4 4

4 4

3 4 3

3 4

2 4 2

2 4

= =

= =

= =

÷

÷

÷

C P

C P

C P

458 . 0

336822 . 121174 ..

) 1 ( ) 0 ( ) 2 (

~

+ =

+ = < P P x P

336822 . 0 ) 59 . 0 ( ) 41 . 0 ( ) 1 (

121174 . 0 ) 59 . 0 ( ) 41 . 0 ( ) 0 (

1 4 1

1 4

0 4 0

0 4

= =

= =

÷

÷

C P

C P

r n r

r

q p C r P

n

÷

= ) (

Q9. 65% of American households subscribe to cable TV.

You randomly select six households and ask each if they

subscribe to cable TV. Construct a probability distribution

for the random variable, x. Then graph the distribution.

SOL:

By formula

Here,

n=6

r=0, 1, 2 , 3, 4, 5, 6

p= probability of success=0.65

q= probability of failure=0.35

x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

P(x) 0.002 0.020 0.095 0.235 0.328 0.244 0.075

075 . 0 ) 35 . 0 ( ) 65 . 0 ( ) 6 (

244 . 0 ) 35 . 0 ( ) 65 . 0 ( ) 5 (

328 . 0 ) 35 . 0 ( ) 65 . 0 ( ) 4 (

235 . 0 ) 35 . 0 ( ) 65 . 0 ( ) 3 (

095 . 0 ) 35 . 0 ( ) 65 . 0 ( ) 2 (

020 . 0 ) 35 . 0 ( ) 65 . 0 ( ) 1 (

002 . 0 ) 35 . 0 ( ) 65 . 0 ( ) 0 (

6 6 6

6 6

5 6 5

5 6

4 6 4

4 6

3 6 3

3 6

2 6 2

2 6

1 6 1

1 6

0 6 0

0 6

= =

= =

= =

= =

= =

= =

= =

÷

÷

÷

÷

÷

÷

÷

C P

C P

C P

C P

C P

C P

C P

r n r

r

q p C r P

n

÷

= ) (

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

P(x)

Q10. A six sided die is rolled 3 times. Find the probability of

rolling exactly one 6.

SOL:

By formula

Here,

n=3

r=1

p= probability of success=1/6

q= probability of failure=5/6

347 . 0

72

25

)

36

25

)(

6

1

( 3

)

6

5

)(

6

1

( 3

)

6

5

( )

6

1

(

! 1 )! 1 3 (

! 3

) 1 (

2

1 3 1

1 3 1

1

3

~ =

=

=

÷

=

=

÷

÷

q p C P

r n r

r

q p C r P

n

÷

= ) (

8. Bibliography

1. https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/independent-

dependent-probability

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability

3. http://people.richland.edu/james/lecture/m170/ch06-bin.html

4. http://www.mathwords.com/b/binomial_probability_formula.htm

5. http://www.stats.gla.ac.uk/steps/glossary/probability_distributions.

html#binodistn

6. http://www.stat.wmich.edu/s160/book/node33.html

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