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TESTS OF HYPOTHESES AND SIGNIFICANCE

STATISTICAL DECISIONS
To make decisions about populations on the basis of sample information Hypothesis Null Hypothesis vs Alternative Hypothesis (1) Need to make assumption or guesses about the result may be true or not true, which is called statistical hypotheses. (2) If there is no difference, or correct as it claims, then the hypothesis called, null hypothesis, denoted by H0. (3) If it is differ from what its claim, or null hypothesis, denoted by H 1. (4) Procedures which enable us to decide whether to accept or reject hypotheses or to determine whether observed samples differ significantly from expected results are called tests of hypotheses, test of significance, or rules of decision. (5) Error(s) may be happened when choice is make as follows : Type I error Reject a hypothesis when it should be accepted Type II error Receive a hypothesis when it should be rejected. (6) The maximum probability with which we would be willing to risk a Type I error is called the level of significance of the test. For example, for a 0.05 or 5% level of significance, there are about 5 chances in 100 that we would reject the hypothesis when it should be accepted, or we can say, we are 95% confident that we have made the right decision. (7) (8) Formula used to test involve normal distribution : Z = (X - ) / (/ n) for n > 30

Two tail test for : H0 = 0 verses H1 0 and One tails test for : H0 = 0 verses H1 > 0 or H1 < 0 The set of Z scores outside the certain range constitutes what is called the critical region or region of rejection of the hypothesis or the region of significance. The set of Z scores inside the certain range could then be called the region of acceptance of the hypothesis or the region of nonsignificance. To determine differences / variations, we use Two tails test; however, to make comparison, we will use one tail test, either negative side for H1 < 0 or positive side for H1 > 0. (9) Z Test for Differences in Two Means Formula:
Z= ( X 1 X 2 ) ( 1 2 )
2 12 2 + n1 n2

CLASSROOM EXERCISE TESTS OF HYPOTHESIS Question 1 The mean lifetime of a sample of 100 fluorescent light bulbs produced by a company is computed to be 1570 hours with a standard deviation of 120 hours. If is the mean lifetime of all the bulbs produced by the company, test the hypothesis = 1600 hours against the alternative hypothesis 1600 hours, using a level of significance of (a) 0.05 and (b) 0.01 Test the hypothesis = 1600 hours against the alternative hypothesis < 1600 hours, using a level of significance of (a) 0.05 and (b) 0.01 Question 2 Given that the sample average of 10 persons, x, is 63.7kgs, and standard deviation, s, is 9.3kgs. Please justify the suppliers claim, at 0.05 level, that he can fulfil the needs of the users by providing a lift that is capable to carry the load of 620kgs, for standard weight of 10 persons at one time. Question 3 The breaking strengths of cables produced by a manufacturer have mean 815kgs and standard deviation 45kgs. By a new technique in the manufacturing process it is claimed that the breaking strength can be increased. To test this claim a sample of 50 cables is tested and it is found that the mean breaking strength is 840kgs. Can we support the claim at 0.01 level of significance? Another 100 cables are tested and the mean obtained is 838kgs with standard deviation 36kgs. Please comment whether there are any difference between this two sample at 0.01 level of significance.

(Theory Ask in Exam) Summary - application of statistical techniques for quality and safety issues Statistics is a mathematical method to do analysis from a number of sample in order to ensure whether the sample outcome is able fulfill the specific requirement. By using hypothesis testing, one can compare the actual result from the sample test with the standard claim, in order to make decide whether to accept or reject the offer. This is important when it come to make decision for building construction, especially from the safety and quality perspectives, which will have significant impact on the useful life and safety of the building.