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16 April 2013

Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING – Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6

Automobiles & Parts
Banks
Beverages

Over Valued .........................................................................................6
Under Valued ..................................................................................6

Under Valued ..................................................................................6
Under Valued ....................................................7
Construction & Building Materials

Chemicals

Electronics & Electrical Equipment
Engineering & Machinery
Food & Drug Stores

Under Valued ..................................................7
Over Valued ................................................................8

Over Valued .......................................................................8
Under Valued ........................................................8

Food Producers & Processors
Under Valued ..............................................................................9
General Retail
Over Valued .........................................................................................9
Heath

Over Valued ..........................................................9
Over Valued ...............................................9

Household Goods & Textiles

Information Technology & Hardware
Under Valued ................................................................................... 10
Insurance
Over Valued ..................................................................... 10
Leisure & Hotels
Life Assurance

Over Valued .................................................................... 10
Under Valued ................................................................ 11

Media & Entertainment
Under Valued ...................................................................................... 11
Mining
Under Valued ................................................................................... 11
Oil & Gas
Personal Care & Household Products

Over Valued .......................................... 12
Under Valued ................................................ 12

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
Under Valued ............................................................................... 12
Real Estate
Under Valued ..................................................... 13
Software & Computer Services
Speciality & Other Finance
Support Services

Over Valued .......................................................... 13
Over Valued ..................................................................... 14

Over Valued ....................................................... 15
Telecommunication Services
Under
Valued
Transport
................................................................................... 15
Under
Valued
Utilities
....................................................................................... 15

DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17

©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

16 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 2 of 17

Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscriber’s personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a year’s data for 40 stocks within Intellisys’ stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%

120.0%

110.0%

110.0%

100.0%

100.0%

90.0%

90.0%

80.0%

80.0%

70.0%

70.0%

60.0%

60.0%

50.0%

50.0%

40.0%

40.0%

30.0%

30.0%

20.0%

20.0%
1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell

Trend

Source: Intellisys
©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

16 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 3 of 17

Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing ‘Target Indications’. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys’ architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant ‘Target’ is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the ‘Target’ as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that ‘Target Indication’ delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management team’s ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analyst’s approach to determining ‘target prices’ is to start with a modest range of
some 6 – 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the ‘intuitive’ result. Intellysis’
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from ‘falling in
love’ with a stock or becoming mesmerised by ‘management cults’.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscriber’s existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)

RISK WARNING – Ratings and Targets
Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions. If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other
equity investments, you should contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not be
suitable for everyone. The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise
and you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency,
fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them.
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

16 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 4 of 17

How to use the report
This daily report is typically available for download as a PDF from 7am - well in advance of the market’s
open - and is based upon previous day’s closing prices.
We have kept the report deliberately simple for quick reading and identification of the shares most likely to
be active as can be seen from the following:

Longer term action based
upon implied target price
Today’s action
Sector

Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics

Closing price

General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES

Company

Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25

12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50

12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Latest 12 month Hi/Lo for
the share price

LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell

Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29

Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31

ßeta measures a share’s
volatility/risk relative to
market (see below)

Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
ßeta <1.0

Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)

ßeta =1.0

Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)

ßeta >1.0

Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)

©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

16 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 5 of 17

Under Valued

Aerospace & Defence
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BAE SYSTEMS

397.30

270.90

397.30

Neutral

Buy

582

0.66

CHEMRING GROUP

275.30

217.00

414.70

Neutral

Buy

329

0.66

COBHAM

241.10

190.10

248.10

Neutral

Buy

288

0.83

MEGGITT

485.90

364.30

494.20

Neutral

Sell

411

1.32

1131.00

788.92

1135.00

Neutral

Neutral

1086

1.08

ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS

Target

Beta

SMITHS GROUP

1254.00

979.50

1328.00

Neutral

Sell

1051

0.71

ULTRA ELECTRONICS HDG.

1648.00

1424.00

1745.00

Neutral

Sell

1545

0.50

Unde r V a lue d

Automobiles & Parts
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

GKN

266.00

173.60

285.00

Neutral

Neutral

Target
256

2.00

INCHCAPE

513.50

305.20

530.00

Neutral

Neutral

498

1.48

LOOKERS

95.25

56.50

100.50

Neutral

Neutral

105

1.24

PENDRAGON

22.25

13.25

25.00

Neutral

Buy

33

1.12

Over Valued

Banks
Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BARCLAYS

303.90

150.55

327.35

Neutral

Sell

Target
57

Beta
1.93

HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50)

692.00

503.20

740.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1215

1.17
1.87

LLOYDS BANKING GROUP

48.68

25.29

55.68

Sell

Strong Buy

76

ROYAL BANK OF SCTL.GP.

287.20

196.60

367.80

Neutral

Sell

43

1.34

STANDARD CHARTERED

1654.50

1228.50

1837.50

Neutral

Sell

1056

1.70

Under Valued

Beverages
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

555.00

348.00

572.00

Neutral

Neutral

593

0.55

DIAGEO

2001.50

1477.00

2085.00

Neutral

Sell

1776

0.55

SABMILLER

3445.50

2348.50

3552.50

Neutral

Buy

3951

0.95

BARR (AG)

Beta

Under Valued

Chemicals
Stock

Target

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)

280.00

240.00

406.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

646

CARCLO

384.75

345.75

503.00

Neutral

Neutral

389

0.74

2714.00

2094.00

2841.00

Neutral

Sell

2159

1.04

CRODA INTERNATIONAL

Target

Beta
#NA

258.90

179.00

275.00

Neutral

Buy

349

1.00

JOHNSON MATTHEY

2351.00

2080.27

2573.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

11681

1.44

VICTREX

ELEMENTIS

1586.00

1185.00

1736.00

Neutral

Sell

1470

1.13

SYNTHOMER

193.90

127.40

239.50

Neutral

Neutral

208

1.16

ZOTEFOAMS

220.50

157.00

225.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

372

0.99

©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

16 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 6 of 17

Under Valued

Construction & Building Materials
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ALUMASC GROUP

88.00

61.50

104.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

243

0.52

BALFOUR BEATTY

250.50

225.70

320.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

1006

0.79

BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS

Target

Beta

286.80

114.00

286.80

Sell

Strong Buy

463

1.50

BELLWAY

1321.00

660.00

1321.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1985

1.10

BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE)

2064.00

1177.00

2093.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3443

0.63

BOOT (HENRY)

170.00

115.50

175.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

354

0.83

BOVIS HOMES GROUP

729.50

399.30

751.00

Neutral

Sell

576

1.14

CARILLION

287.30

235.50

331.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

820

1.10

CLARKE (T)

54.00

40.00

61.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

276

0.82

287.00

188.00

306.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

580

0.56

1430.00

1052.00

1540.00

Neutral

Sell

834

1.14

932.00

579.00

965.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1754

0.99

COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
GALLIFORD TRY
KELLER

835.00

348.25

844.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2092

1.25

1196.00

1106.00

1408.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3471

0.94

69.75

49.00

76.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

210

1.07

MARSHALLS

123.50

76.00

127.25

Neutral

Strong Buy

294

1.37

MORGAN SINDALL GROUP

551.00

508.00

695.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3407

0.86

KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR

NORCROS

16.63

9.25

18.25

Neutral

Strong Buy

36

1.11

1098.00

532.00

1098.00

Neutral

Neutral

1164

1.15

REDROW

200.30

107.30

200.30

Neutral

Strong Buy

301

1.05

SIG

157.00

82.30

162.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

485

1.74

5.00

3.88

19.50

Sell

Strong Buy

50

0.89

90.85

40.28

93.50

Neutral

Neutral

97

1.58

TRAVIS PERKINS

1463.00

906.50

1465.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2689

1.97

WOLSELEY

3201.00

2121.32

3337.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

5356

1.43

PERSIMMON

SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY

Under Valued

Electronics & Electrical Equipment
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

1265.00

935.00

1364.00

Neutral

Sell

787

0.78

DOMINO PRINTING SCIENCES

649.00

509.00

717.00

Neutral

Buy

864

1.18

E2V TECHNOLOGIES

116.00

105.50

149.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

252

1.31

INVENSYS

358.30

186.10

366.80

Neutral

Neutral

352

1.42

LAIRD

217.40

177.00

249.30

Neutral

Sell

84

2.12

OXFORD INSTRUMENTS

1660.00

1096.00

1752.00

Neutral

Sell

1204

1.01

RENISHAW

1744.00

1260.00

2081.00

Neutral

Buy

2425

1.26

SPECTRIS

2351.00

1427.00

2470.00

Neutral

Neutral

2261

1.52

0.07

0.07

0.21

Neutral

Strong Buy

0

0.83

TT ELECTRONICS

167.00

114.00

190.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

414

1.59

XAAR

490.00

185.00

490.00

Sell

Sell

238

1.11

DIALIGHT

BIOME TECHNOLOGIES

©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

Target

Beta

16 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 7 of 17

Over Valued

Engineering & Machinery
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP

83.50

54.25

91.75

Neutral

Buy

95

1.26

BODYCOTE

516.00

310.30

556.50

Neutral

Neutral

508

1.61

CASTINGS

332.50

277.75

358.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

705

0.99

VESUVIUS

343.20

263.19

402.10

Neutral

Buy

499

2.19

FENNER

379.90

329.30

456.50

Neutral

Buy

552

1.42

HALMA

510.50

373.10

531.50

Neutral

Sell

399

0.76

HILL & SMITH

436.00

297.00

480.00

Neutral

Sell

323

1.37

1269.00

776.00

1347.00

Neutral

Buy

1414

1.40

IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARCO

Target

Beta

281.60

220.30

333.90

Neutral

Strong Buy

547

1.82

2809.00

1859.00

3037.00

Neutral

Sell

2582

0.99

252.70

177.00

252.70

Neutral

Sell

211

1.65

43.00

35.40

104.11

Neutral

Buy

47

0.73

2669.00

1900.00

2734.00

Neutral

Sell

2324

0.84

VITEC GROUP

632.00

586.50

740.00

Neutral

Sell

586

1.40

WEIR GROUP

2361.00

1397.00

2474.00

Neutral

Sell

2047

1.39

Over Valued

Food & Drug Stores
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

GREGGS

474.00

449.00

523.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

714

0.47

MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.

280.50

248.60

298.30

Neutral

Sell

203

0.39

SAINSBURY (J)

384.10

283.50

385.50

Neutral

Sell

226

0.58

TESCO

385.40

297.05

385.95

Neutral

Sell

288

0.69

76.00

18.88

78.75

Neutral

Sell

54

0.84

THORNTONS

Beta

Under Valued

Food Producers & Processors
Stock

Target

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS

1841.00

1167.00

1931.00

Neutral

Buy

2108

0.61

CRANSWICK

1057.00

732.50

1057.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2087

0.49

DAIRY CREST

439.60

290.40

444.00

Neutral

Buy

494

0.92

DEVRO

349.00

278.00

380.00

Neutral

Buy

521

0.31

73.25

54.50

170.00

Neutral

Sell

-182

1.25

PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)

©

842.00

633.50

870.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

1564

0.70

2792.00

2005.00

2831.00

Neutral

Neutral

2791

0.57

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

16 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 8 of 17

Under Valued

General Retail
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS

28.63

20.50

29.50

Neutral

Buy

36

0.68

416.50

222.40

429.30

Neutral

Sell

367

0.53

1318.00

1000.00

1586.00

Neutral

Sell

980

1.27

620.50

585.00

728.50

Neutral

Sell

308

0.94

33.20

12.67

35.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

78

1.50

127.00

55.20

186.00

Neutral

Sell

-23

1.08
0.99

BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP

Target

Beta

29.88

19.50

44.63

Sell

Strong Buy

130

HALFORDS GROUP

334.50

189.00

356.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

530

0.67

JD SPORTS FASHION

727.50

606.50

841.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1678

0.52

46.25

38.00

65.15

Neutral

Strong Buy

258

1.24

KINGFISHER

297.20

254.10

305.70

Neutral

Buy

442

0.92

MARKS & SPENCER GROUP

400.40

312.20

400.40

Neutral

Buy

583

0.64

59.00

42.00

71.00

Buy

Buy

83

1.04

315.75

160.00

362.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1267

0.47

NEXT

4336.00

2896.00

4408.00

Neutral

Neutral

4122

0.66

TED BAKER

1324.00

830.00

1354.00

Neutral

Sell

661

0.55

66.75

32.13

68.00

Neutral

Sell

52

1.48

DARTY

MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE

TOPPS TILES

Over Valued

Heath
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BIOQUELL

147.00

124.00

160.00

Neutral

Sell

Target
118

0.45

CONSORT MEDICAL

795.00

584.00

831.50

Neutral

Sell

583

0.40

OPTOS

150.00

145.75

264.00

Neutral

Buy

167

1.20

SMITH & NEPHEW

754.00

580.00

768.50

Neutral

Sell

677

0.41

Over Valued

Household Goods & Textiles
Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

GAMES WORKSHOP

651.50

557.00

720.50

Neutral

Neutral

637

0.43

HEADLAM GROUP

340.00

263.00

355.00

Neutral

Sell

300

0.92

80.50

55.25

97.00

Neutral

Buy

105

0.75

HORNBY

Target

Over Valued

Information Technology & Hardware
Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ARM HOLDINGS

899.50

469.00

971.50

Neutral

Sell

537

0.74

CSR

500.00

194.60

500.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1248

1.16

FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES

Target

Beta

59.63

23.50

83.25

Neutral

Sell

48

0.90

458.60

383.50

705.00

Neutral

Neutral

495

1.09

SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS

130.20

129.40

174.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

636

0.94

WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS

179.00

165.75

230.00

Neutral

Sell

-472

0.91

©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

16 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 9 of 17

Under Valued

Insurance
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

1347.00

1019.00

1374.00

Neutral

Sell

-726

0.54

AMLIN

415.70

312.90

431.50

Neutral

Sell

-3085

0.46

BEAZLEY

215.00

132.50

219.10

Neutral

Strong Buy

2595

0.59

CATLIN GROUP

519.00

399.00

540.00

Neutral

Buy

761

0.29

HISCOX

544.50

379.26

574.05

Neutral

Strong Buy

2095

0.48

ADMIRAL GROUP

JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON

838.00

659.00

864.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

2919

0.31

RSA INSURANCE GROUP

110.90

97.65

136.30

Neutral

Strong Buy

1688

0.40

NOVAE GROUP

458.00

345.00

475.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

1907

0.47

Over Valued

Leisure & Hotels
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

2267.00

1942.00

2628.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3818

1.00

ENTERPRISE INNS

104.20

55.50

114.70

Neutral

Sell

79

1.59

TUI TRAVEL

313.20

158.00

330.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

770

0.99

FULLER SMITH 'A'

800.00

700.00

820.00

Neutral

Sell

645

0.38

GREENE KING

676.00

474.30

723.50

Neutral

Sell

606

0.91

LADBROKES

211.00

152.70

243.10

Neutral

Sell

179

0.93

1952.00

1396.63

2039.00

Neutral

Sell

1605

1.17

CARNIVAL

ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.

573.00

455.40

582.50

Neutral

Neutral

602

1.38

MITCHELLS & BUTLERS

330.00

217.40

350.10

Neutral

Sell

296

1.09

BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM.

138.00

91.90

160.10

Neutral

Sell

98

1.25

10.75

5.61

13.12

Neutral

Strong Buy

48

1.25

163.10

111.00

177.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

497

1.00
0.74

PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP

470.90

269.20

470.90

Neutral

Sell

313

WETHERSPOON (JD)

545.50

371.30

548.50

Neutral

Buy

726

0.69

WHITBREAD

2466.00

1786.00

2692.00

Neutral

Sell

1901

0.99

WILLIAM HILL

395.20

239.02

411.17

Neutral

Sell

257

0.86

MARSTON'S

134.10

94.40

143.00

Neutral

Sell

27

1.20

Over Valued

Life Assurance
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

AVIVA

306.50

255.30

388.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

1153

1.24

CHESNARA

237.00

155.25

250.00

Neutral

Buy

351

0.70

LEGAL & GENERAL

171.60

106.00

175.70

Neutral

Strong Buy

290

1.70

OLD MUTUAL

202.90

138.70

211.40

Neutral

Sell

174

1.57

PRUDENTIAL

1081.00

660.00

1155.00

Neutral

Sell

947

1.70

492.50

303.40

537.00

Neutral

Sell

422

0.85

ST.JAMES'S PLACE

©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

16 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 10 of 17

Under Valued

Media & Entertainment
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

BLOOMSBURY PBL.

115.00

102.00

146.50

Neutral

Sell

-536

0.36

BRITISH SKY BCAST.GROUP

864.00

647.00

899.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

1533

0.54

44.00

28.50

60.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

137

1.01

DAILY MAIL 'A'

703.50

363.50

722.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2980

1.12

EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR

994.50

672.50

994.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

6573

0.98

INFORMA

513.50

340.00

537.00

Neutral

Sell

-63

1.53

ITE GROUP

276.50

180.00

289.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

218

1.44

ITV

126.70

69.45

132.30

Neutral

Strong Buy

1176

1.54
1.26

CENTAUR MEDIA

JOHNSTON PRESS

16.00

4.88

16.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1554

1155.00

1111.00

1294.00

Neutral

Buy

285

0.62

75.00

36.25

82.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

2334

0.79

274.00

265.00

377.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

788

0.15

33.18

26.85

33.32

Neutral

Sell

-537

0.52

STV GROUP

133.50

81.50

146.88

Neutral

Sell

247

0.78

ST.IVES

136.00

67.50

139.25

Neutral

Strong Buy

676

1.49

95.25

25.50

121.25

Neutral

Sell

-244

1.57

UBM

718.50

511.00

788.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1620

1.31

WILMINGTON GROUP

156.00

82.00

164.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1193

0.85

WPP

1080.00

743.00

1092.00

Neutral

Sell

-453

1.34

HIBU

0.39

0.26

3.91

Neutral

Strong Buy

726

1.07

PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS

TRINITY MIRROR

Under Valued

Mining
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

1671.00

1639.50

2412.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2873

1.75

232.00

221.25

320.00

Neutral

Buy

273

0.99

ANTOFAGASTA

1015.00

952.50

1381.00

Neutral

Sell

936

1.43

BHP BILLITON

1933.00

1681.00

2236.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3405

1.45

ANGLO AMERICAN
ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP

291.00

240.84

564.35

Neutral

Sell

28

2.03

RANDGOLD RESOURCES

LONMIN

5195.00

4596.00

7775.00

Neutral

Sell

2889

0.34

RIO TINTO

3140.00

2715.50

3757.00

Neutral

Neutral

3425

1.51

4.50

3.75

22.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

164

0.89

832.50

1298.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2379

2.21

785.80

1205.00

Neutral

Neutral

1010

1.88

COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
XSTRATA

1060.50

Under Valued

Oil & Gas
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

1124.00

1000.50

1451.00

Neutral

Buy

1238

0.81

BP

451.70

391.95

475.90

Neutral

Strong Buy

1572

1.05

CAIRN ENERGY

296.10

248.20

349.00

Neutral

Sell

-38

1.32

BG GROUP

FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
©

8.30

7.66

12.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

14

0.90

893.50

688.00

954.00

Neutral

Sell

465

1.32
1.36

72.50

55.00

148.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

304

397.80

321.30

401.20

Neutral

Sell

295

1.45

2182.50

2039.00

2366.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

11601

0.86

392.20

254.90

404.30

Neutral

Sell

254

0.52

1169.00

1138.00

1557.00

Neutral

Sell

916

1.05

865.50

651.50

879.50

Neutral

Neutral

824

1.36

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

16 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 11 of 17

Over Valued

Personal Care & Household Products
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

MCBRIDE

115.00

102.70

146.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

258

PZ CUSSONS

397.90

297.20

415.60

Neutral

Sell

325

0.69

4657.00

3300.00

4812.00

Neutral

Neutral

4702

0.36

RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP

Beta
0.83

Under Valued

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
Stock

Target

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

0.40

0.37

3.88

Buy

Sell

-0

1.01

3324.50

2591.00

3340.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

7411

0.47

BTG

354.80

300.30

423.00

Neutral

Sell

164

0.62

DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS

777.50

444.50

780.00

Neutral

Sell

727

0.26

1565.50

1317.50

1565.50

Neutral

Neutral

1610

0.49

OXFORD BIOMEDICA

1.63

1.55

5.80

Buy

Sell

0

0.65

PHYTOPHARM

1.30

1.30

12.75

Buy

Neutral

1

0.94

1962.00

1727.00

2153.00

Neutral

Sell

1340

0.65

ARK THERAPEUTICS GP.
ASTRAZENECA

GLAXOSMITHKLINE

SHIRE

Target

Beta

SKYEPHARMA

45.50

37.00

101.50

Neutral

Sell

-95

0.71

VERNALIS

22.50

21.63

27.38

Neutral

Strong Buy

35

0.90

Under Valued

Real Estate
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

BIG YELLOW GROUP

369.00

274.50

387.50

Neutral

Sell

-536

1.15

BRITISH LAND

580.50

470.10

585.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

1533

1.03

33.50

22.75

34.25

Sell

Strong Buy

137

0.82

856.00

595.00

870.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2980

0.69

DERWENT LONDON

2235.00

1689.00

2239.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

6573

1.20

DEVELOPMENT SECS.

153.75

121.75

175.00

Neutral

Sell

-63

0.97

GRAINGER

135.70

83.10

140.60

Neutral

Strong Buy

218

1.54

GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES

512.00

345.60

514.00

Sell

Strong Buy

1176

1.06
1.16

CAPITAL & REGIONAL
CLS HOLDINGS

HAMMERSON

510.50

404.50

525.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1554

HELICAL BAR

249.00

164.00

249.75

Neutral

Buy

285

0.75

LAND SECURITIES GROUP

858.50

704.00

858.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

2334

1.15

INTU PROPERTIES

340.90

305.00

366.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

788

1.08

MCKAY SECURITIES

142.00

126.00

145.00

Neutral

Sell

-537

0.72

MUCKLOW (A & J) GROUP

370.00

315.00

390.00

Neutral

Sell

247

0.41

PRIMARY HEALTH PROPS.

337.00

312.00

364.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

676

0.35

65.25

32.50

70.00

Sell

Sell

-244

1.17
0.74

QUINTAIN ESTATES & DEV.
SAVILLS

517.50

300.80

599.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1620

SHAFTESBURY

601.00

482.20

601.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1193

1.03

SEGRO

259.00

209.40

271.00

Neutral

Sell

-453

1.70

ST MODWEN PROPS.

268.50

145.50

280.20

Neutral

Strong Buy

726

1.55

TOWN CENTRE SECURITIES

200.00

147.00

215.00

Neutral

Sell

-10

1.05

UNITE GROUP

321.20

180.25

330.00

Neutral

Sell

34

1.75

1.38

1.00

2.75

Sell

Sell

-996

1.01

369.20

213.25

369.20

Neutral

Sell

0

1.02

WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP

©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

16 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 12 of 17

Under Valued

Software & Computer Services
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ANITE

122.00

111.00

162.00

Neutral

Neutral

120

0.76

2137.00

1469.00

2322.00

Neutral

Sell

1295

1.40

AVEVA GROUP

Target

Beta

COMPUTACENTER

567.00

292.40

567.00

Sell

Strong Buy

1328

1.01

KOFAX

314.25

240.00

325.75

Neutral

Neutral

318

1.12

25.25

18.25

25.50

Neutral

Sell

24

0.83

MICRO FOCUS INTL.

685.50

426.17

706.00

Neutral

Buy

965

0.79

PHOENIX IT GROUP

131.00

131.00

231.75

Buy

Strong Buy

306

0.74

77.50

70.25

89.00

Neutral

Sell

-89

0.53

1900.00

1275.00

1970.00

Neutral

Neutral

2049

0.77

341.50

247.70

352.10

Neutral

Buy

409

0.72

INNOVATION GROUP

RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP

Over Valued

Speciality & Other Finance
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ABERDEEN ASSET MAN.

424.00

237.30

441.90

Neutral

Sell

175

BREWIN DOLPHIN

220.00

136.30

222.00

Neutral

Sell

127

0.72

10351.00

9250.00

11105.00

Neutral

Neutral

10535

0.83

CAMELLIA

Target

Beta
1.08

CHARLES STANLEY GROUP

385.00

247.50

385.00

Neutral

Sell

180

0.97

CHARLES TAYLOR

170.00

132.00

190.00

Neutral

Sell

109

0.69

CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP

1057.00

673.50

1107.00

Neutral

Sell

205

0.87

F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT

97.40

65.45

110.40

Neutral

Neutral

101

0.89

3.10

0.55

3.70

Sell

Strong Buy

27

0.68

HENDERSON GROUP

164.70

90.55

171.00

Neutral

Sell

52

1.44

ICAP

300.00

281.40

384.00

Neutral

Sell

208

1.07
1.68

HELPHIRE GROUP

INTERMEDIATE CAPITAL GP.

416.20

227.30

427.60

Neutral

Sell

223

INVESTEC

458.30

310.40

513.50

Neutral

Sell

101

1.55

1310.00

930.00

1411.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3898

1.12

LONDON STOCK EX.GROUP

104.30

63.25

115.40

Neutral

Sell

98

1.32

RATHBONE BROTHERS

MAN GROUP

1505.00

1151.00

1532.00

Neutral

Sell

1145

0.73

SCHRODERS

2212.00

1166.00

2212.00

Neutral

Sell

1304

1.31

SCHRODERS NV

1785.00

966.00

1785.00

Sell

Strong Buy

4235

1.27

©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

16 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 13 of 17

Over Valued

Support Services
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ACAL

220.00

157.75

242.50

Neutral

Buy

296

0.93

AGGREKO

1761.00

1557.00

2400.00

Neutral

Sell

1275

1.03

AMEC

1069.00

923.00

1172.00

Neutral

Neutral

1131

1.04

615.00

212.20

635.00

Neutral

Sell

312

1.62

1083.00

793.50

1106.00

Neutral

Sell

661

0.48

535.00

317.00

535.00

Neutral

Buy

798

0.78

1297.00

990.00

1320.00

Neutral

Sell

821

0.55

UK MAIL GROUP

445.00

214.00

445.00

Neutral

Neutral

444

0.38

CAPITA

878.50

602.00

913.50

Neutral

Sell

515

0.50

50.50

25.34

53.50

Neutral

Buy

68

0.78

COMPASS GROUP

821.00

616.00

852.50

Neutral

Sell

604

0.74

BERENDSEN

748.50

462.00

812.00

Neutral

Buy

971

1.04

DE LA RUE

959.00

891.50

1075.00

Neutral

Sell

602

#NA

ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL

COMMUNISIS

Target

Beta

DIGNITY

1328.00

803.50

1435.00

Neutral

Sell

768

0.21

DIPLOMA

556.50

417.00

627.50

Neutral

Sell

480

0.95

ELECTROCOMP.

244.70

195.20

265.00

Neutral

Buy

318

1.02

FILTRONA

709.00

428.00

744.00

Neutral

Sell

343

1.10

G4S

298.00

240.00

307.50

Neutral

Neutral

291

0.58

HAYS

101.20

66.40

101.20

Neutral

Buy

120

1.09

HOMESERVE

200.00

137.50

252.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

479

0.93

INTERSERVE

478.00

271.40

510.50

Neutral

Buy

687

1.27

3426.00

2406.00

3451.00

Neutral

Sell

1434

0.77

JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP

43.38

26.50

45.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

94

1.18

MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.

32.00

21.25

39.38

Neutral

Strong Buy

55

0.72

MENZIES (JOHN)

733.50

542.00

789.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1298

1.43

MICHAEL PAGE INTL.

408.00

341.40

453.00

Neutral

Sell

316

1.41

MITIE GROUP

272.70

253.90

300.80

Neutral

Buy

341

0.55

91.00

91.00

160.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

239

0.34

PAYPOINT

900.00

605.00

912.50

Neutral

Sell

682

0.70

PREMIER FARNELL

212.00

153.20

236.30

Neutral

Buy

278

1.32

REGUS

169.00

82.65

169.00

Neutral

Sell

107

1.44

RENTOKIL INITIAL

100.40

69.40

100.70

Neutral

Sell

56

1.24

REXAM

525.50

394.28

547.50

Neutral

Buy

630

0.91

INTERTEK GROUP

OFFICE2OFFICE

RICARDO

420.00

304.50

431.00

Neutral

Buy

467

0.85

ROBERT WALTERS

225.62

176.25

264.63

Neutral

Buy

310

1.23

RPC GROUP

387.40

348.30

477.00

Neutral

Buy

533

0.77

RPS GROUP

255.30

197.00

274.20

Neutral

Neutral

246

1.50

SERCO GROUP

620.50

509.50

635.50

Neutral

Sell

577

0.59

SHANKS GROUP

76.50

74.50

98.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

168

1.46

SPEEDY HIRE

50.00

22.25

50.00

Sell

Neutral

52

1.25

147.00

71.25

149.00

Neutral

Sell

51

0.56

56.50

39.50

59.00

Neutral

Neutral

61

0.92

332.00

234.75

354.88

Neutral

Strong Buy

616

0.86

74.50

42.00

75.00

Sell

Strong Buy

179

0.79

TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG

©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

16 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 14 of 17

Over Valued

Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

279.50

200.70

281.70

Neutral

Buy

324

42.50

27.28

42.81

Neutral

Strong Buy

81

0.69

687.50

390.80

710.50

Neutral

Sell

588

0.53

Beta
0.90

82.50

67.00

85.20

Neutral

Strong Buy

126

1.24

1128.00

677.00

1128.00

Sell

Sell

709

0.11

189.80

154.45

192.00

Neutral

Sell

162

0.54

Under Valued

Transport
Stock

Target

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BBA AVIATION

253.70

178.00

269.00

Neutral

Sell

196

BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS.

390.00

309.50

425.00

Neutral

Buy

450

0.99

CLARKSON

1580.00

1150.00

1585.00

Sell

Sell

1462

0.81

EASYJET

1108.00

480.10

1128.00

Neutral

Sell

659

0.74

217.90

175.70

260.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

544

0.90

FISHER(JAMES)& SONS

1045.00

535.00

1055.00

Neutral

Sell

386

0.77

GO-AHEAD GROUP

1533.00

1086.00

1533.00

Neutral

Buy

1810

0.89

FIRST GROUP

Target

Beta
1.30

NATIONAL EXPRESS

203.30

164.50

230.70

Neutral

Buy

245

1.34

NORTHGATE

314.00

159.60

350.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

602

1.41

STAGECOACH GROUP

300.20

230.40

319.60

Neutral

Buy

350

0.90

58.75

31.00

78.50

Sell

Sell

-40

0.90

WINCANTON

Under Valued

Utilities
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

CENTRICA

376.40

306.30

378.10

Neutral

Buy

499

0.46

NATIONAL GRID

786.50

641.00

787.00

Neutral

Neutral

856

0.49

PENNON GROUP

656.50

598.00

796.00

Neutral

Buy

796

0.58

SSE

1529.00

1294.00

1535.00

Neutral

Buy

1793

0.42

SEVERN TRENT

1703.00

1513.00

1796.00

Neutral

Sell

1543

0.34

719.50

594.00

747.50

Neutral

Neutral

684

0.50

UNITED UTILITIES GROUP

©

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

Target

Beta

16 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

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