ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS KAMLOOPS,BC,CANADA Summary
The Election Campaign Week 1: Roundabout Communications British Columbia Election Projection consists of the latest eight (6) public opinion polls for voter intentions in BC. These eight polls combine for a “sample” of 6,940. If this were an actual scientific opinion poll the Margin of Error would be +/- 1.2%, 19 times out of 20. Projection Highlights: • • • • 4 new polls BC NDP & BC Liberals both drop but spread between the two is widening. Riding changes Adding Bubble riding (5-10% gap) to Swing Ridings

We will continue with a new projection each week of the election campaign, dependient on polls being released each week. Regards, Chad Moats Owner

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

Projection Methodology Roundabout Communications compiles a “Poll of Polls” for the Electoral Projector. Most polling firms breakdown respondents by region. Therefore, Roundabout has divided our “Poll of Polls” into the following Regions of BC: • • • • Lower Mainland Vancouver Island Interior North

Below is a graph showing all the polls included with final date each poll was in the field and sample size. The bar indicates the weight of each poll out of one (1).

Value of each poll used in projection
Feb. 20,1013-Angus Reid 803

0.01 0.11 0.09 0.09 0.14 0.21 0.17 0.17 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 Value

March 12,2013 - Ipsos 1000 March 12,2013- Campaign Research March 19,2013 -Angus March 31,2013- Insight April 10, 2013-Ekos April 13, 2013- Angus April 14,2013-Ipsos 882 809 855 987 804 800

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

Each poll's “n” , or number of respondents/ sample size, is divided by the total number of respondents to get the Initial Weight for each poll in the projector. A Time Penalty is then assessed based on time elapsed since last day of most recent poll. A subjective amount that reduces the value of a single poll over time. Roundabout uses a 0.013 reduction of each poll's weighted value as a percentage of total “N” per week. Each week is counted back from the last day of the most recent poll and rounded to nearest week. The algorithm is: ▪ (Weight of Poll's “N” – Time Penalty ) x Weighting Factor= Real Weight This value is then applied to each poll for each regions results. Applying “Poll of Polls” to Constituency Projections. Each Regional “Poll of Polls” is applied to each constituency result from the 2009 Election. In the cases of Vancouver-Point Grey, Chilliwack-Hope and Port Moody-Coquitlam have all had by-elections. These results have been applied to the projection at a weight of 1/3, with 2009 results being weighted at 2/3. The reasoning for having by-election results weighted lower are due to a few factors that include lower voter turn out, poor track record of incumbent governments in by-elections. However, being the most recent results can not be completely ignored, and must be included in the projection. We feel 1/3 is reasonable. In the case of the four (4) Independent incumbent MLAs. A general rule is applied to Incumbent MLAs that are running again but have left there party since the 2009 election. There are currently 2 of those seeking to be re-elected as an Independent. They have been awarded 60% of their 2009 results as a member of their former party. This effects Abbotsford South and Cariboo North. A high profile former BC Liberal has announced his intentions to run in Abbottsford West. He has been given 10% of the BC Liberal 2009 vote total.

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

Bonuses One of our readers suggested that local bonuses for Star Candidates, Leaders and Incumbents could enhance constituency level projections. We've included in this month's projection. We are interested to here, your suggestions for others that may qualify for a bonus. • • Incumbent Bonus : +15% of projected total ◦ Applied to all incumbents. Party Leader Bonus: +25% ◦ Applied to Vancouver-Point Grey(Liberal),Vancouver-Kingsway (NDP),Langley(Conservative) and Victoria-Beacon Hill (Green) Star Candidate Bonus: +35% ◦ Applied to Langley(Conservative), Peace North (Independent) and Oak Bay-Gordon Head (Green) Projection Changes from March 2013 Province wide % changes

Provincial Results BC Liberal BC NDP BC Green BC Conservative IND Total

Seats Change Vote % Change 25 -2 29.9% -1.1% 56 +2 47.1% -0.5% 0 11.7% +0.9% 0 11.3% +0.7% 4 2.8% +0.3% 85

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

Regional changes

Northern BC Seats Change BC Liberal 1 -1 BC NDP 6 +1 BC Green 0 BC Conservative 0 IND 1 Total 8

Vote % Change Lower Mainland Seats Change Vote % Change 16 - 30.3% -0.8% 27.0% -3.7% BC Liberal BC NDP 26 - 45.5% -1.3% 45.9% +3.7% BC Green 0 - 9.6% +1.1% 10.3% - 9.7% +0.8% 12.3% -0.1% BC Conservative 0 IND 2 - 2.5% +0.1% 4.5% +0.2% Total 44

Interior BC BC Liberal BC NDP BC Green BC Conservative IND Total

Seats Change Vote % Change 6 -1 29.9% -2.1% 11 +1 40.1% +1.1% 0 - 11.6% +0.6% 0 - 13.6% -0.2% 1 - 1.9% +0.1% 18

Vancouver Island Seats Change Vote % Change BC Liberal 2 - 23.7% -0.8% BC NDP 13 - 48.6% -1.6% BC Green 0 - 14.7% +0.4% BC Conservative 0 - 10.7% +1.3% IND 0 - 2.3% +0.7% Total 15

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

Constituency Level Results

Northern BC Nechako Lakes North Coast Peace River North Peace River South Prince George-Mackenzie Prince George-Valemount Skeena Stikine

BC Lib 34.5% 11.5% 22.6% 39.6% 32.6% 30.1% 12.9% 20.0%

BC NDP BC Green BC Con Ind 37.5% 10.6% 11.6% 62.3% 12.8% 9.8% 19.1% 0.0% 10.6% 43.5% 32.0% 12.1% 12.7% 41.8% 12.2% 9.8% 40.9% 11.4% 13.6% 59.2% 8.4% 16.2% 58.8% 8.8% 9.1%
BC BC NDP Green BC Con Ind 61.4% 9.7% 5.8% 36.3% 6.8% 15.5% 72.3% 12.4% 5.7% 61.0% 10.1% 11.9% 35.7% 13.3% 26.5% 27.8% 10.2% 16.8% 27.2% 10.5% 17.2% 33.9% 19.5% 15.2% 33.3% 14.8% 16.6% 33.5% 19.8% 14.0% 32.0% 11.5% 14.6% 51.1% 9.0% 6.5% 20.9% 0.0% 5.9% 42.6% 54.5% 9.5% 7.3% 44.3% 9.9% 7.6% 37.7% 10.4% 11.0% 47.0% 9.0% 22.0% 30.6% 13.0% 22.4%

Interior BC Columbia River-Revelstoke Kootenay East Kootenay West Nelson-Creston Boundary-Similkameen Kelowna-Lake Country Kelowna-Mission Penticton Shuswap Vernon-Monashee Westside-Kelowna Cariboo-Chilcotin Cariboo North Fraser-Nicola Kamloops-North Thompson Kamloops-South Thompson Chilliwack-Hope Chilliwack

BC Lib 21.3% 39.7% 6.9% 15.3% 22.7% 40.7% 42.5% 29.2% 31.9% 25.0% 41.9% 31.6% 28.9% 25.6% 34.7% 39.1% 17.9% 31.9%

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC
BC Liberal 39.4% 17.0% 27.6% 45.6% 38.7% 24.9% 27.0% 43.7% 20.0% 5.5% 7.2% 35.4% 33.6% 6.7% 46.5% 22.5% 23.7% 42.5% 43.2% 45.2% 24.9% 18.1% 29.6% 29.4% 41.3% 25.9% 15.9% 18.5% 30.2% 31.2% 37.5% 30.5% 12.6% 20.2% 16.1% 43.5% 2.1% 44.0% 50.8% 12.8% 33.4% 43.7% 52.0% 36.0% BC Conserv ative IND 9.5% 0.0% 41.2% 15.3% 11.5% 8.9% 14.2% 9.7% 9.5% 9.5% 13.9% 9.4% 9.4% 9.5% 9.5% 8.6% 8.9% 13.1% 0.0% 9.5% 8.9% 13.5% 8.8% 8.7% 9.5% 9.5% 9.0% 9.5% 9.5% 8.7% 18.6% 9.1% 11.8% 9.5% 8.7% 8.7% 7.5% 8.9% 8.6% 6.3% 9.5% 8.7% 12.9% 12.8% 11.7% 9.5% 56.7%

Lower Mainland BC Abbotsford-Mission Abbotsford South Abbotsford West Fort Langley-Aldergrove Langley Maple Ridge-Mission Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows Surrey-Cloverdale Surrey-Fleetwood Surrey-Green Timbers Surrey-Newton Surrey-Panorama Surrey-Tynehead Surrey-Whalley Surrey-White Rock Delta North Delta South Richmond Centre Richmond East Richmond-Steveston Burnaby-Deer Lake Burnaby-Edmonds Burnaby-Lougheed Burnaby North Coquitlam-Burke Mountain Coquitlam-Maillardville New Westminster Port Coquitlam Port Moody-Coquitlam Vancouver-Fairview Vancouver-False Creek Vancouver-Fraserview Vancouver-Hastings Vancouver-Kensington Vancouver-Kingsway Vancouver-Langara Vancouver-Mount Pleasant Vancouver-Point Grey Vancouver-Quilchena Vancouver-West End North Vancouver-Lonsdale North Vancouver-Seymour West Vancouver-Capilano West Vancouver-Sea to Sky

NDP 37.4% 30.7% 35.3% 33.0% 36.2% 51.5% 51.8% 34.7% 55.2% 77.3% 73.6% 44.6% 48.0% 73.7% 30.3% 55.1% 17.7% 33.9% 35.2% 30.4% 56.9% 60.0% 49.5% 50.2% 38.1% 52.6% 61.0% 62.7% 43.8% 45.0% 32.5% 50.2% 63.4% 60.6% 68.1% 37.6% 71.4% 39.2% 26.1% 64.4% 40.1% 30.4% 18.2% 27.9%

Green 12.0% 7.5% 8.7% 9.5% 9.4% 10.5% 8.5% 10.5% 9.3% 6.2% 7.8% 8.9% 7.3% 9.5% 10.9% 7.6% 0.0% 10.1% 9.0% 9.3% 7.9% 9.0% 9.7% 9.3% 8.5% 8.1% 12.0% 7.2% 5.7% 12.0% 16.0% 7.7% 12.1% 9.0% 5.7% 8.4% 15.6% 8.4% 11.9% 11.0% 11.0% 11.6% 9.7% 25.0%

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

Vancouver Island Alberni-Pacific Rim Comox Valley Cowichan Valley Nanaimo Nanaimo-North Cowichan North Island Parksville-Qualicum Esquimalt-Royal Roads Juan de Fuca Oak Bay-Gordon Head Saanich North and the Islands Saanich South Victoria-Beacon Hill Victoria-Swan Lake Powell River-Sunshine Coast

BC Liberal 18.0% 7.1% 22.1% 22.2% 21.6% 25.1% 39.1% 16.7% 20.2% 35.7% 32.6% 31.0% 12.9% 13.1% 28.6%

NDP 56.9% 62.1% 45.8% 51.1% 51.9% 49.6% 32.1% 50.5% 54.8% 34.9% 38.2% 44.7% 52.3% 58.1% 55.9%

BC Green Conservative 11.9% 10.4% 17.1% 10.3% 16.1% 13.9% 13.5% 10.4% 13.3% 10.4% 11.8% 10.5% 15.0% 11.2% 20.7% 10.5% 13.0% 10.4% 17.7% 10.2% 16.3% 11.2% 11.3% 10.5% 21.7% 10.3% 16.1% 10.3% 5.3% 9.3%

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

Projection Analysis The Election Campaign Week 1: Roundabout Communications British Columbia Election Projection's results has produced some small changes. Both major parties (BC NDP and BC Liberals) have lost some ground to the smaller parties. The BC Liberal lose more then BC NDP increasing the spread between the two main parties. Once again we have our “Swing Ridings” (trailing by 5% or <) and have added “Bubble Ridings” (trailing by 5%-10%). These are the individual constituencies that can make or break an election. They can turn a complete blow out into a slim loss, or a small victory into a rout. Here's our Regional Snapshot, a quick look at the changes, momentum and swings in each of the four regions of BC. As always, we will have a list of all the close races by region at the end. Regional Snapshot Northern BC BC NDP gain nearly 4% at the expense of the BC Liberals. Nechako Lakes changes hands to BC NDP but remains close. Peace River North still looks certain to elect an Independent. BC Interior The BC Liberals drop 2% and BC NDP gains 1%. BC Liberal support remains strong in the Okanagan. Shuswap returns to BC NDP from BC Liberal. Lower Mainland Both main parties grab lose ground from the last projection. BC Liberal strength is in pockets around the Lower Mainland mostly Richmond, North Shore and South Vancouver. Abbotsford appears to headed to a BC Liberal wipe out from the 2009 sweep. Vancouver Island The Island is solidly BC NDP with the exception of one Liberal stronghold and a tight NDP vs Liberal race. Oak Bay-Gordon Head is one of the closest contests in this election. Greens and Conservatives make gains.

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

Roundabout Communications BC Election 2013 Swing Ridings
BC NDP Swing Ridings (Trail by 5% or less) There are a number of constituencies in which the BC NDP are barely trailing the BC Liberals. A small uptick in overall voter intentions could make this election a landslide victory akin to the one faced by the BC NDP, twelve years ago. The BC NDP swing ridings as determined by Roundabout Communications are: • • • • • • • • • Kamloops-South Thompson (-1.4%) Oak Bay-Gordon Head (-0.8 %) Kootenay East (-3.4 %) Langley (-2.5 %) Abbotsford-Mission (-2.0 %) Chilliwack (-1.3 %) Vancouver-False Creek (-5.0 %) Vancouver-Point Grey (-4.8 %) Coquitlam-Burke Mountain (-3.2 %)

The BC NDP trails by 5% or less in all of these nine seats. If the NDP manages to swing all of them, and hold there own close races. A solid victory becomes a rout. BC NDP Bubble Ridings (Trail by 5-10%) • • • • • • Peace River South (-7.6%) Surrey-Cloverdale (-9 %) Richmond East (-8 %) Vancouver-Langara (-5.9%) West Vancouver- Sea to Sky (- 8.1%) Parksville-Qualicum (-7 %)

These six constituencies represent former BC Liberal safe seats. If these further trend towards the BC NDP, BC could witness the reverse of 2001.

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC BC Liberal Swing Ridings (Trail by 5% or less) As with the BC NDP, the BC Liberals are very competitive in a number of constituencies. Closing the overall gap with the BC NDP could turn a rout into a respectable showing and possibly their leader's may keep her job. The BC Liberal swing ridings as determined by Roundabout Communications are: • Nechako Lakes (-3 %) • Shuswap (-1.4 %) • Penticton (-4.7 %) BC Liberal Bubble Ridings (Trail by 5-10%) • • • • • • • Prince George-Mackenzie (-9.2 %) Vernon-Monashee (-8.5 %) Kamloops-North Thompson (-9.6 %) Abbotsford West (-7.7%) Surrey-Panorama (-9.2 %) North Vancouver-Lonsdale (-6.7 %) Saanich North & Islands (-5.6 %)

If these ten seats move to the BC Liberals, the election will be much closer then currently anticipated. BC Conservative Swing Ridings (Trail by 5% or less) Due to not running a full slate in 20099 the BC Conservative party is difficult to project Currently there are no BC Conservative Swing Ridings BC Liberal Bubble Ridings (Trail by 5-10%) • • Boundary-Similkameen (-9.2 %) Chilliwack (-9.5 %)

These are the two seats with the best chance of electing a BC Conservative MLA.

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

BC Green Swing Ridings (Trail by 5% or less) There are no BC Green Swing Ridings. BC Green Bubble Ridings (Trail by 5-10%) The BC Green party does not trail in any riding by 10% or less. Close Races by Region • • • • North: Nechako Lakes Interior: Shuswap, Vernon-Monshee, Chilliwack and Penticton Lower Mainland: Vancouver-False Creek, Abbotsford-Mission, Langley, Vancouver-Point Grey and Coquitlam-Burke Mountain Vancouver Island: Oak Bay-Gordon Head

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

For Further Information Contact: Chad Moats,Owner
roundaboutcommunications@gmail.com

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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

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