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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| April 18, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report


Thursday| April 18, 2013

Highlights
UKs Claimant Count Change declined by 7,000 in the last month. Japans Consumer Confidence rose to 44.8-mark in month of March. UKs Unemployment Rate rose to 7.9 percent in February. Japans Trade Balance was at a deficit of 0.92 trillion Yen in March. Asian markets are trading lower taking cues from drop in US and European equities market on the concerns of slowdown in the global economic growth. Chinas Foreign Direct Investment rose by 1.4 percent in March from earlier decline of 1.4 percent in February.

Market Highlights (% change)


Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5688.7 18731.2 14618.59 1552.0 15383.8 1923.8 58497.8 13382.9 86.68 1382.20 2330.10 7044.75 102.09 Prev. day 0.0 -0.1 -0.9 -1.4 -1.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 -2.3 -0.3 -1.4 -3.8 0.0

as on April 17, 2013 WoW 2.3 1.7 -1.2 -0.6 -3.4 -0.6 4.1 -0.1 -8.4 -11.6 -15.7 -7.1 0.4 MoM -0.1 -0.8 0.7 -2.2 -3.9 -1.4 5.3 7.3 -6.8 -14.4 -19.0 -10.2 0.6 YoY 7.3 2.4 11.5 11.6 3.0 -1.4 -7.2 41.4 -16.8 -16.2 -26.4 -12.6 -0.7

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) gained by 1.2 percent in the yesterdays tr ading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, rise in the UKs unemployment rate data also supported an upside in the currency. Further, US equities traded on a weak note which also acted as a positive factor for the DX. The currency touched an intra-day high of 82.815 and closed at 82.79 on Wednesday.

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.4 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on account of dollar demand from oil companies and custodian banks. Further, weak domestic market sentiments also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of expectations for cut in the key rates by the central banks in the monetary policy to be announced on 3rd May 2013. Additionally, inflow of foreign funds also prevented sharp fall in the Indian Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day low of 54.24 and closed at 54.17 against dollar on Wednesday. For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.352.60 crores ($65.79 million) as on 17th April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.55,974.90 crores ($10,375.90 million) till 17 April 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, dollar demand from importers and custodian banks will also exert downside pressure on the currency. However, expectations of favorable trade balance data from the country can cushion sharp fall in the Indian Rupee. US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR April13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.79 54.17 54.26 54.26 Prev. day 1.2 -0.4 0.02 0.02 WoW 0.2 0.4 -0.72 -0.71

Source: Reuters

as on April 17, 2013 MoM -0.5 0.3 0.12 0.12 YoY 4.2 -5.2 4.43 4.41

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for April 18, 2013 Support 54.05/53.90 Resistance 54.40/54.60

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Currencies Daily Report


Thursday| April 18, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 1.1 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of strength in the DX coupled with weak global market sentiments. Further, European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member Jens Weidmann said that central bank may cut the interest rates if economic conditions demand for it. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.3000 and closed at 1.3028 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, comments from ECB official that central bank may slash interest rates if the economic conditions demand for it may add downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 70.90/70.65 71.40/71.70 valid for April 18, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR April 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3028 70.92 71.2 71.2 Prev. day -1.1 0.2 0.15 0.15

as on April 17, 2013 WoW -0.3 0.2 -0.45 -0.45 MoM 0.7 -0.7 0.89 0.64 YoY -0.7 -4.9 4.34 4.30

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.81 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, rise in unemployment rate added downside pressure. Additionally, Bank of Englands April meeting minutes showed that policymaker remained divided over the decision of further monetary stimulus kept the currency under pressure. UKs Claimant Count Change declined by 7,000 in March as against a fall of 5,300 in February. Unemployment Rate rose to 7.9 percent in February from earlier rise of 7.8 percent a month ago. Average Earnings Index increased by 0.8 percent in February as compared to rise of 1.2 percent in earlier month. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5215 and closed at 1.5236 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, rise in worries over UKs economic growth as the IMF slashed its growth forecast for the country may exert downside pressure on the currency. Additionally, expectation of decline in retail sales data from the country may act as a negative factor for the sterling pound. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for April 18, 2013 Support 82.40/82.14 Resistance 83.05/83.40
Source: Telequote Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR April13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR April 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5236 82.644 82.73 Prev. day -0.81 -0.638 -0.35

as on April 17, 2013

WoW -0.6 -1.09 -1.08

MoM 0.9 1.22 0.71

YoY -4.3 0.72 -0.11

82.72

-0.38

-1.12

0.70

-0.13

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

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Currencies Daily Report


Thursday| April 18, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.6 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments in the early part of the trade which lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Japans Consumer Confidence rose by 0.5 points to 44.8-mark in March as against a rise of 44.3-level in February. Trade Balance was at a deficit of 0.92 trillion Yen in March as against a previous deficit of 1.09 trillion Yen in February. The Yen touched an intra-day low of 98.43 and closed at 98.09 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, favorable trade balance data will also support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for April 18, 2013 Support 54.95/54.40 Resistance 55.80/56.20
Source: Telequote

as on April 17, 2013 Last 98.09 0.5531 55.57 55.58 Prev day 0.6 -0.27 0.12 0.14 WoW -1.7 1.12 1.17 1.16 MoM 2.2 -2.47 -1.58 -1.55 YoY 21.3 -12.90 -13.58 -13.59

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on April 18, 2013


Indicator Treasury Sec Lew Speaks Trade Balance Retail Sales m/m Spanish 10-y Bond Auction Unemployment Claims Philly Fed Manufacturing Index G20 Meetings FOMC Member Raskin Speaks Country US Japan UK Euro US US All US Time (IST) 1:30am 5:20am 2:00pm Tentative 6:00pm 7:30pm Day 1 9:30pm Actual -0.92T Forecast -0.92T -0.7% 349K 2.7 Previous -1.09T 2.1% 346K 2.0 Impact Medium Medium High High High High High Medium

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