BayesianModeling User Manual

Version 1.0 December 2011

Jorge Luis Bazán, PhD
Department of Sciences Pontifical Catholic University of Peru email: jlbazan@pucp.edu.pe Home Page: http://argos.pucp.edu.pe/~jlbazan/

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Index Introduction

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1. Binary Regression 1.1. Binary Regression Models 1.2. Binary Regression with Asymmetric Links 1.3. Bayesian Inference in Binary Regression 1.4. Application: Beetles data set 1.5. Use of the BayesianModeling 1.5.1 Generate the syntax of the model 1.5.2 Bayesian estimation using WinBUGS or OpenBugs 1.5.3 Bayesian estimation using WinBUGS or OpenBugs in R

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2. Item Response Theory 2.1. Item Response Theory Models 2.2. IRT models with asymmetric links 2.3. Bayesian Inference in IRT 2.4. Application: Math data set 2.5 Use of the BayesianModeling 2.5.1 Generate the syntax of the model 2.5.2 Bayesian Estimation using WinBUGS or OpenBugs 2.5.3 Bayesian Estimation using WinBUGS or OpenBugs in R

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3. References

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Introduction BayesianModeling is a java software development tool to generate syntax of several models of Binary Regression and Item Response Theory under a Bayesian approach using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Subsequently, the syntax can be executed in the programs OpenBUGS (Spiegelhalter, Thomas, Best, Lunn, 2007), WinBUGS (Spiegelhalter, Thomas, Best, Lunn, 2003) or in R program (R Development Core Team, 2004) through the libraries R2WinBUGS and R2OpenBUGS (Sturtz, Ligges and Gelman, 2005), BRugs (Thomas, et al, 2006) and rbugs. This application is for your personal use and must not be used for any commercial purpose whatsoever without my explicit written permission. The application is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind. In order appropriately to implement the different models mentioned in the application, you it must read in detail the literature suggested in the references and must be familiarized with the Bayesian Inference using MCMC. BayesianModeling is thought for practitioners that given a data set they wish to know the syntax of diverse Binary Regression or Item Response models in bugs code, Theory usually non available in diverse statistical programs including the program R. This program write two files: a bugs model file for each one of this models considering adequate priors, lists with sensible starting values and size of the data set and a data set file in rectangular format, both readable in WinBUGS or OpenBUGS. This basic application can be considered a different version of BRMUW (Bazán, 2010) which was developed as part of the projects DAI 3412, 4031 and 2009-0033 of Pontifical Catholic University of Peru with the purpose to disseminate models developed by the author. This application together with some models has been developed for three late years and throughout that time various people have collaborated in this project reason why I desire to express my gratefulness. Among them to the colleagues Oscar Millones, Christian Bayes and Miluska Osorio for theirs aid during the revision of the present version of the application and the user guide. I also am thankful to Martin Iberico, Margareth Sequeiros and Pedro Curich for the computational support in some of the stages of the project. Thank you very much to my family for its patience and support.

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Installation instructions can be found in the included README file. BayesianModeling can run smoothly in any operating systems, such as Windows, Mac OS, Linux, in which the Java Virtual Machine and Perl are supported.

Java: Java SE Runtime Environment 1.6 or later. Perl: Perl v5.10 or later. RAM: ≥ 512M The BayesianModeling package was introduced at the II Conbratri-2011

(http://187.45.202.74/conbratri/).

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1. Binary Regression 1.1. A Binary Regression Models Consider variables, assuming that a an intercept, is a assume that function (cdf). The inverse function a vector of independent dichotomous random and with probability , and

with probability

vector of covariates, where Moreover, denotes the

may equals , corresponding to design matrix with rows , and

vector of regression coefficients. Binary regression models where denotes a cumulative distribution

is typically called the link function and

is the linear predictor. Thus, a binary regression model is given by

When about

a cdf of a symmetric distribution, the response curve is has symmetric form . Examples are obtained when is in the class of the elliptical distributions as,

for example, standard normal, logistic, Student- , double exponential and Cauchy distributions. In the case that is the cdf of a standard normal distribution we obtain the probit link

and in the case that

is the cdf of a logistic distribution we obtain the logit link,

These links: probit and logit are implemented in BayesianModeling.

1.2. Asymmetric Links in Binary Regression As reported in the literature, symmetric links are not always appropriate for modeling this kind of data. Nagler (1994), Chen, Dey and Shao (1999) among others, showed the importance of appropriately choosing the link function and how sensitive is the inference if a symmetric link function is incorrectly used in the place of an asymmetric link. The problem appears when the probability of a given binary response approaches at a different rate than it approaches . Moreover, examples are listed in different

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for example. 6 . Collet. Information of how to implement the Bayesian estimation of the binary regression using the cloglog. Dey and Shao (1999. and normal distribution bivariate with parameters . and include the logit link as special case when the parameter these links see Prentice (1976) and Nagler (1994).textbooks (see. where the cdf of the Gumbel distribution is considered as defined by Where the cdf is completely specified and. 2001) are not available at the moment. Nevertheless Bayesian approach to binary regression models considering other links as the discussed by Bazán. For a review of Where . Prentice (1976). Chen. In BayesianModeling also are implemented three links that are based in the cdf of a skew normal distribution (see Azzalini. it is necessary to consider asymmetric links. respectively. probit and carries far estimates models of the Manual. 2003) reporting situations where an asymmetric link is more appropriate than a symmetric one. it does not depend on any unknown additional parameter and it does not include any particular case as a symmetrical link. it represents the distribution accumulated of a and . A very popular example of asymmetric link is the complementary log-log link or cloglog. 1985). this cdf can be represented in general by the following way: . In this case. Asymmetric links considered in BayesianModeling are those that are obtained considering other cdf like the following: these links are asymmetric logit and are known as scobit and power logit. probit and logit links in WinBUGS or OpenBUGS can be seeing in the Example Beetles: logistic. Bolfarine and Branco (2006 and 2010). . This link is considered in Bayesian Modeling. Nagler (1994).

 If .  If . For instance. 2001) that also is implemented in BayesianModeling. Branco and Bolfarine (2006) named as BBB skew probit. Another interesting case when mixture of the positive normal with H the cumulative distribution function of the logistic distribution it is considered as skew logistic or skew logit (see Chen. Dey and Shao. with being the function of density of the standard normal. named here as Standard skew probit. so we has negative asymmetry (positive). Bolfarine y Branco 2006 y 2010). obtain the asymmetric probit link proposed by Bazán. In these three links. the CDS skew probit considers a kind of mixes of normal where the measure of mix is the positive normal distribution with density function given by . the implemented links in the BayesianModeling are the following:  If . have for negative values (positive) of These three models can see also as belonging to the kind of mixes of eliptic distributions proposed by Basu and Mukhopadhyay (2000) given by: . with obtain the standard asymmetric probit link (Bazán. Bolfarine y Branco (2006 and 2010) and as especial cases of this general formulation. is the shape parameter that controls the asymmetry. 7 . Where is the cdf of a variable in and is an eliptic distribution. . obtains the asymmetric probit link proposed in Chen et al (1999) named as CDS skew probit.This links were proposed by Bazán.

For skew associated with the asymmetric link. Combining the likelihood function and the priori distributions we can obtain the posteriori distributions of the parameters of interest. cloglog. with the link: for Scobit and Power logit models is assumed ) and for skew probit models In addition is assumed independent priors as . the parameters of interest are assumed like random variables and so is need establishes a priori probability distributions that reflects our previous knowledge of its behavior. probit. Bayesian Estimation in Binary Regression Considering the distribution Bernoulli for the variable response. thus is assumed and this case is considered for with to be large. . we consider priors that they are vague proper priors with known distributions but variance big as well as independence between priors (see Nzoufras. In the Bayesian Inference. scobit and power logit links consider this likelihood function. In the present work. In Binary Regression models there is consensus about the prior specification for regression coefficients. For Power Logit and Scobit probit and skew logit The logit. where With as indicated above. In relation with the shape parameter associated ( and . For more details about the use of these software for Bayesian Inference and usual Binary regression 8 .1. Bayesian Inference is facilitated with the use of different MCMC methods implemented in WinBUGS or OpenBUGS software using a minimum programming.3. . however skew probit and skew logit links consider other versions of the likelihood function considering augmented versions that are discussed in the specific references of these models. the likelihood function is given by Where is the cdf of an asymmetric distribution indexed by the shape parameter . 2009).

and Spiegelhalter (1996). The Binary regression models implemented in BayesianModeling classified according to its links are: • Symmetric: probit. As example consider the group of data Beetles: logistic. 1996) or OpenBUGS (Spiegelhalter et al. DPpackage. also References to justify the model and the choices of priors are showed. 0 otherwise 9 . skew logit. The group of data is denominated as beetles. In contrast.models we suggest the book of Congdon (2005). Bayesian Inference for some traditional Binary models considering R packages as arm. In BayesianModeling. Application: Beetles data set The BayesianModeling program generates the necessary syntax for the Bayesian estimation of several models of binary regression. in the WinBUGS program (see Spiegelhalter et al.4. 2007). Also. Richardson. For this only is necessary to have a text file with the data. 1.txt that is found in this downloads of the program. probit and extreme value models of the WinBUGS. scobit. Congdon (2010) and Ntzoufras (2009). there is no program that generates codes for WinBUGS or OpenBUGS with exception of BRMUW (Bazán 2010) a previous version of this program in Spanish. In the columns normally appear the names of the variables in the first line and in the first column should appear the response variable. when a specific code is generated for a Binary regression model. BUGS codes for all Binary regression models presented here are facilitated using BayesianModeling. skew probit (CDS. using diverse methods MCMC. bayesm. LaplacesDemon. An introduction to MCMC methods is given in Gilks. • Asymmetric: cloglog. The variables used in beetles.txt are: y: 1 if the beetle died after 5 hours of being exposed to carbon disulfide. BBB and standard). for most of the models presented here. power logit. All codes for Binary regression models are established considering the likelihood function presented here and considering the priors suggested with the exception of the skew logit and skew probit models which use an augmented likelihood function version. However. generated from any statistics program or from Excel. logit. MCMCpack are available.

2001). . 1. Bolfarine y Branco (2010) 1. 1. More details in Bazán.8839 As an application example we consider the following model Where corresponds to the skew logit link (see Chen.5. . .6907 .1 Use of the BayesianModeling to generate the syntax of the model We will use the BayesianModeling to implement the model of binary regression with skew logit link for the data beetles. .x: concentration of carbon disulfide that a beetle was exposed The data file has the following structure y 1 1 . Use of BayesianModeling 1.txt described in the previous section.5.6907 1. To start using the program you must Open your data file before of choose the models for them. Go to File > Open 10 . 1 x 1. Dey and Shao.

Navigate to the directory that contains your dataset files. .2.csv.txt and . Select the data set file you want work. The program can open data file in ASCII format (. To select the model you want Click on Binary Regression button or Go to Models > Binary Regression 11 .dat) 3.

select the dependent variable and covariates variable you want. you must to indicate if will use all the data or only a part of them considering the options in Cases. select All. In the example.4. Click and drag the variables. In this case y and x respectively. Afterward. 5. 12 . Also. This will open the dialog box “Binary Regression Data”.

Both files are readable in WinBUGS or OpenBUGS. Two type of files are generated. In this case Skew Logit Model and Binary Regression Data. 13 . Here you must to select the models that will be used. Then. This will open the dialog box “Binary Regression Models”.6. click Models. 7. corresponding for the selected models and for data. in this example only select the model skew-logit and do click in OK.

14 . To generate new models for other data is recommended to restart the program and follow the steps presented.These two files will have to be saved with format txt. is to say Binary Regression Data.txt and Skew Logit Model.txt for its subsequent use.

Open the files with the syntax of the model and the previous generated data by the BayesianModeling in WinBUGS or OpenBUGS.1. Both files with txt format have to be opened in the WinBUGS or OpenBUGS program to make the correspondent analysis of inference.2 Bayesian estimation using WinBUGS or OpenBUGS As we have seen the BayesianModeling generates two files. 15 . one that contains the model of binary regression with the link selected and another that contains the data set. see Chapter 4 of Nzoufras (2009) 1. Here we detail the steps that must be followed to perform the Bayesian inference in WinBUGS. For details.5.

This will open the dialogue box “Specification Tool”.txt.2. 4. Click in Model > Specification having active the window of the file Skew Logit Model. Select the word model highlighting it with the cursor and do click in check model. 16 . 3. In the below left corner has to appear “model is syntactically correct” that indicates the syntax of the model is properly formulated.

Select in the file of the model the line under Data. list and do click in load data. In the below left corner appears “data loaded” indicating that the data have been read.5. 17 .

18 .txt select the names of the variables x and y and do click in load data. In the data file Binary Regression Data.6.

19 . Once specified the number of chains to generate (in this example 1 chain) do click in compile. The dialogue box “Specification tool” specifies the number of chains that want to generate in the box of text “num of chains”.7. In the left corner below has to appear “model compiled”.

In the left corner below has to appear “initial values generated. model initialized”. Then do click in gen inits. Select the line under Inits in the file of the model and do click in load inits. This generates the initial values for the Bayesian Estimation. 20 .8.

Do click in Model > Update 21 .9.

If you want to save the actual values for further analysis. In the text box Update Tool type the number of iterations that are required and afterwards does click in update. obtain a trace plots of the chains doing click in history button. this has to be done for each parameter.3 Bayesian Estimation using WinBUGS or OPENBUGS in R As we have seen in the previous section with the two files that generates the BayesianModeling can implement the Bayesian Estimation using WinBUGS or 22 . click on "coda" on the Sample Monitor Tool. 11. an estimation of the posterior density doing click in density button and other more statistics of the chains can be calculated using this dialogue box. 1.10. In addition.Then. 12.5.This will open the dialogue box “Update tool ”. by considering the dialogue box “Sample Monitor Tool”. Repeat the step 10 as necessary to generate more iterations. In the example is beta and delta. In the text box node type the name of the parameters and then do click in set. for this go to Inference > Samples. you can: calculate posterior statistics of the parameters doing click in stats button. you must to specify the parameters to be monitored. which will open the dialogue box “Sample monitor tool”.

In R. header=TRUE.0.0. na. 2005). installed previously. Ligges and Gelman.up[y[i]+1]) V[i] ~ dnorm(0.txt would remain as model { for(i in 1:n) { m[i] <. lo[2]<.txt.white=TRUE) 23 . Read the data (the file beetles. 2006) a collection of R functions that allow users to analyze graphical models using MCMC techniques. up[2]<-50.) } for (j in 1:k) { beta[j] ~ dnorm(0.1)I(0. sep="".".OpenBugs programs. et al.txt for this Example is in F:\MILUS\beetles. by example as modelbr. with the following commando: library(R2WinBUGS) 2. dec=".beta[1] + beta[2]*x[i] muz[i]<. load the library R2WinBUGS. Here we will need the file Beatles.strip. up[1]<. Then the file modelbr.-50.txt syntax of the model generated in the BayesianModeling.0.table("F:/MILUS/beetles. } To implement the Bayesian estimation in R we follow the following steps to use the library R2WinBUGS.read. 1.txt". We copy all the syntax before “Inits” and save it in a file.strings="NA".0E-3) } delta ~ dunif(-1.txt and the skewlogitModel.txt) datos <.m[i]+delta*sigma*V[i] zs[i]~dlogis(muz[i].1)I(lo[y[i]+1].1) lambda<-delta/sqrt(1-pow(delta.2)) lo[1]<. packages for Running WinBUGS and OpeBUGS from R respectively or BRugs (Thomas.2)) sigma<-1/sqrt(1-pow(delta. Also Bayesian estimation can be implemented by using R2WinBUGS or R2OpenBUGS (Sturtz.1.

n.3.program="WinBUGS") 6.5)} 5. Finally with the command bugs implements the Bayesian estimation. Create a program that generates the initials values typing: inits<-function(){list(beta=rep(0. Here will explain in brief the syntax of the command Bugs parameters. model. Create a list that contain the data and the information of the size of the data set typing: n=nrow(datos) k=ncol(datos) data<-c(as.txt".inits.save = is a vector with the names of the parameters of the model which simulations we wish to save.list(datos).k=k)) 4.file="F:/MILUS/modelbr.iter = is the number of the total iterations of each chain.chains=1. model. n.file = is the direction where finds the file of the model n. out<-bugs(data.burnin=4000.delta=0.to. If we type out in the line of commands of the R a summary of the simulation is obtained 24 . program = estimation is the program that will be used to implement the Bayesian With the following command the Bayesian estimation is implemented and the simulations are saved in the object out.parameters. n.k).burnin = is the number of iterations to be discharged as burn-in.to."lambda"). n. n.save=c("beta".chains = is the number of chains to be generated.iter=44000.list(n=n.

Finally.1 0.directory.directory is not NULL.0 DIC info (using the rule.1 -55. each with 44000 iterations (first 4000 discarded).2 3. The directory that contains the WinBUGS executable. 25 .2 -0.7 1024. n. the latter makes use of function openbugs and requires the CRAN package BRugs.7 986. it will be used as the default.0 1040.4 33.8 -1. 7.7 1035.2 38.5% 25% 50% 75% 97. pD = Dbar-Dhat) pD = -9.9 beta[2] 35.bugs.txt".5% beta[1] -62. Also you can specify the program to use.1 -67.3 0.6 31.2 0.4 -62.8 -64.3 15.sims = 1000 iterations saved mean sd 2.7 1. to greater details about the command bugs you can obtain help typing in the line of the commands the following ?bugs Note.7 deviance 1029. 1 chains. fit using WinBUGS.9 35.0 1044.3 and DIC = 1020. You can specify Bug.0 DIC is an estimate of expected predictive error (lower deviance is better).0 1.3 -60. either winbugs/WinBUGS or openbugs/OpenBUGS.thin = 40 n.> out Inference for Bugs model at "G:/MILUS/modelbr.2 36. If the global option R2WinBUGS.0 lambda 0.

   is the conditional probability given to respond correctly to item . defined by the following expressions: where  is the manifest variable which model the binary response of the person that answer to the item .  is the value of the latent variable or trait latent for the person . i. is called the item characteristic curve (ICC) and is a latent lineal predictor associated with the latent trait of the person the item parameters for the item . the to the different items are conditionally independent given the latent is one-dimensional latent.2. and some occasions it is interpreted as the latent ability of the person . because is a function strictly no decreasing of  .. Item Response Theory models Consider data collected of persons who have each given responses on different items of a test.e. A Two-Parameter Item Response Theory (IRT) model one-dimensional and binary is a system in which for each person latent variable model has a unidimensional monotone . to the discrimination and the difficulty of the item . The items have binary outcomes. for a person response variable  satisfies the property of latent monotonicity. it is. and Observations The Two-Parameter IRT model  satisfies the property of latent conditional independence. respectively. 26 .  are two parameters that represent. Item Response Theory 2. 1. the items are scored as 1 if correct and 0 if no.

This parametrización is very important from the computational point of view since it facilitates the computational time of convergence. When it used this parameterization. are not expected. with given the vector of latent variables can be and the vector of parameters of the items written as: The proof of this result is direct by considering the latent conditional independence. the previous parameter of difficulty can be obtained doing in the obtained result. 27 . is the same for each case and   Also is assumed that responses are independent between persons. The parameters of difficulty and of discrimination represent the location and inclination of the item. the conjoint density of the vector of multivariate responses . Values as parameter the line real. This model is known in the psychometric literature as normal ogive model which corresponds in the context of Generalize Linear Models. Generally. respectively. In The Two-Parameter IRT model. and . The first IRT binary model was introduced by Lord (1952) with an ICC given by being the cdf of a standard normal variable. this parameterization is preferred in the Bayesian Inference and also in BayesianModeling. being inclination of the ICC in the point and a proportional value to the is the point on where the ICC has its maximum slope. for a probit link function and empathizing this can be named as 2P model. . where is called the link function. The parametric space for the than by the usual take values in is arbitrary and to be the same as Another parameterization very common for the predictor linear latent is .

Birbaum (1968) considered a ICC given by . This model is known as the logistic model and empathizing the link is named here as 2L model. Again. in the language of the generalized linear models.parameters IRT get this item correct by chance. to a logit link function. and three-parameter IRT model. which depend basically of as it considers the ICC. where denotes the cdf of a logistic variable. Particular cases The IRT model admits diverse formulations. This is known as the . This induces. If model. when probit or logit links are considered we have 3P or 3L IRT model respectively. The version of three parameters for this model establishes that the probability that the person hit the item is given by: 28 . In its simplest version could take and consider an ICC of the form This is called of one-parameter IRT model and when probit or logit links are considered we have 1P or 1L IRT model respectively. the model is reduced to the two. The IRT model with logit link The IRT model with logit link or logistic model is probably the model more used in IRT. In a general way we could consider an ICC of the form Where the parameter indicates the probability that very low ability individuals will is the distribution function.On the other hand.

is knows as well as the Rasch model but it has own interpretations and derivations (see for example Fischer and Molenaar. As particular cases have The last model of a parameter. The skew normal ogive model The skew normal ogive model was proposed by Bazán et al (2006) assuming that the probability of success considering the abilities and the item parameters associates it given by: 29 . 1995). these models are symmetric IRT models. 2. news IRT models with asymmetric links are considered also in BayesianModeling which are presented in the next section. In addition. this is the case of the logistic and of normal ogive models. The BayesianModeling program allows implementing the code in WinBUGS for the models 1L. 1P. the asymmetric ICC are considered symmetrical. By considering this links. Bazán et al (2006) and Bolfarine and Bazán (2010) asymmetric ICC can be incorporated considering a new parameter of item that controls the shape of the curve. Then will show three of these models. However. IRT Models with asymmetric links In the traditional IRT models. 2P and 3P IRT models. 2L. as it has observed Samejima (2000). This asymmetry is necessary in many cases for a better modelization of answers with a low proportion of 0´s or 1's. 3L.where usually is assumed that although some authors consider also the value for approximating this model to the normal ogive model.2.

if . studied in Bolfarine and Bazán (2010). Bolfarine and Branco. The LPE and RLPE models Logistic positive exponent (LPE) was proposed by Samejima (2000). 30 . the normal ogive model (2P) is obtained. These models. is the latent linear predictor denote the cdf of a skew normal distributions with function of density being the pdf of a standard normal variable. Main details about this model can be reviewed in Bazán et al (2006). In the first case. In this formulation the link considered is the BBB skew probit link (see Bazán. this characterize by And the second case by: These correspond to the cdf of the Scobit distribution and Burr of type II. named Reflection Logistic positive exponent (RLPE) was formulated by Bolfarine and Bazán (2010). For LPE model and for RLPE model and . When only difficulty parameter is considered we have the 1SP IRT model. On the other hand. Notice that if et al (2006) if of latent variable . Is because this behavior that has a quick growth for low values of the latent variable this parameter is interpreted as a penalization parameter for item. the probability of correct response .where and is a parameter of asymmetry. the probability of correct response has a slow growth for low values . respectively. evaluated in Depending that function of distribution specifies will have 2LPE or 2RLPE IRT models. assume that the probability of correct response considering the abilities and the item parameters associates it given by where is the cdf of the logistic distribution indexed by the parameter . 2010) and for this reason the model can be named also two-parameter skew probit or 2SP IRT model. but as indicated in Bazán . A reversal version.

we consider priors that they are vague proper priors with known distributions but variance big as well as independence between priors (see Nzoufras. Normal ogive (probit). the implementation of this procedure is not direct because it requires of a correct specification of the indicator variables. 3LPE and 3RLPE are another IRT models implemented in BayesianModeling. LPE and RLPE consider this likelihood function. Bayesian estimation in IRT Considering the distribution Bernoulli for the response variable. Branco and Bolfarine (2006). In traditional 31 . The Logistic (logit). 1RLPE. Branco and Bolfarine (2006). 2009). In the Bayesian Inference. Combining the likelihood function and the priori distributions we can obtain the posteriori distributions of the parameters of interest. In the present work. In WinBUGS. More details of this model can review in Bolfarine y Bazán (2010). the parameters of interest are assumed like random variables and so is need establishes a priori probability distributions that reflects our previous knowledge of its behavior. Thus.3.Note that but it holds that or or and y are asymmetric In both models can also interpret like a parameter of penalty or bonus of similar way to the case of the model of skew normal ogive model given by Bazán. however skew probit IRT consider other version of the likelihood function considering augmented version that is discussed in the specific references of this model. 2. the likelihood function for IRT model in the three-parameter IRT model is given by Where is the cdf of an asymmetric distribution indexed by the parameter associated with the asymmetric ICC. Main details can find in Bazán. 1LPE. Particular cases and extensions considering one-parameter or three-parameters are possible.

Fox (2010). Here is assumed independent priors as Where is a pdf of normal distribution and and . Fox (2010). For more details about the use of these softwares for Bayesian Inference we suggest the book of Congdon (2005). Congdon (2010) and Ntzoufras (2009). Richardson. Bazán. Dey and Zumbo (2004). and ) . there is no program that generates codes for WinBUGS or OpenBUGS. The IRT models implemented in BayesianModeling classified according to its links are: 32 . 2008a. However about item parameter there is several proposals. and ) .IRT models priors are discussed in Albert (1992). respectively. 2010) are available. Bayesian Inference for some traditional IRT models using R package (MCMCpack: Martin. However. Bazan. Sahu (2002). for most of the models presented here. 2008b. . with ( and . Patz and Junker (1999). IRTm2noHA: Sheng. This is facilitated using BayesianModeling. IRTmu2no: Sheng. 2011) and Matlab package: (IRTuno: Sheng. An introduction to MCMC methods is given in Gilks.( ). where . and Spiegelhalter (1996). thus is assumed for . In IRT models there is consensus about the prior specification for latent trait.For LPE and RLPE models . Also. Bolfarine and Leandro (2006). Johnson and Albert (1999). Rupp. Quinn and Park. correspond to the prior distributions of item parameters In the special case of size of small samples we suggested the use of the following prior specification with and ( and ) where correspond the positive normal or Half-normal distribution. For traditional IRT models Bugs codes are available by example in Curtis (2010). Valdivieso and Calderón (2010). ( .For Ogive skew normal model Bayesian Inference in IRT models is facilitated with the use of different methods MCMC implemented in WinBUGS or OpenBUGS software.

2RLPE. In BayesianModeling.minedu. also References to justify the model and the choices of priors are showed. consider a data set of 14 items from a Mathematical test developed by the Unity of Measurement of the Educative Quality of Peru for the National Evaluation of the sixth degree of 1998 which were applied to a sample of 131 students of sixth degree of high socioeconomic level.pe/umc/admin/images/publicaciones/boletines/Boletin13. 3L).gob. 2.4. Bolfarine and Leandro (2006). Application: Math data set The program BayesianModeling generates the syntaxes necessary for the Bayesian estimation of several models of the Item Response Theory. The released items are a sampling from a test that appears published in the following link: http://www2. RLPE (1RLPE. Branco and Bolfarine (2006) and Bazán. 2LPE. As an example. using diverse MCMC methods. for posterior use in WinBUGS (see Spiegelhalter et al 1996) or OpenBUGS (Spiegelhalter et al 2007) program. 3P). 3LPE). All codes for IRT models are established considering the likelihood function presented here and considering the priors suggested with the exception of the skew probit IRT models which use an augmented likelihood function version. usually appear the names of the items in the first line. skew probit (1SP. For this only is necessary to have a file of text with the data. when a specific code is generated for a IRT model. generated from any statistics program or from Excel. Number of item of Math data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 33 . 2P. 2SP).pdf In the table appears the identification corresponding to the number of item with the number in the UMEQ test. • Asymmetric: LPE (1LPE. In each column.• Symmetric: logistic (1L. 2L. probit (1P. These data have been used in Bazán. 3RLPE).

I12 0 0 . . . in this case we consider the skew normal ogive model with parameters of difficulty and of discrimination.5. . 2. Use of the BayesianModeling We described the use of the BayesianModeling to implements the 2SP IRT model to the data of MathData. this is a two-parameter skew probit IRT model (2SP) . Branco and Bolfarine (2006). 1 I05 1 1 . . review Bazán. 0 I04 1 1 . 1 I14 1 1 . . . where skew normal cdf. .. is a parameter of penalty and denote the 2. 0 I06 0 1 . .Number of item in the UMEQ test 1 8 9 11 12 13 21 25 32 5 17 30 2 10 The data file can be found in the file zip of the program and has the following structure: I01 1 1 . Go to File > Open 34 ..dat described in the previous section. .5. 0 I13 0 1 . 1 I02 1 1 . . . . . . . ... 0 I07 1 1 .. .. 1 As an example of application we consider an IRT model with asymmetric link. . . For more details of this application. . 1 I03 0 1 . . .. 1 .. . .1 Generate the syntax of the model 1. . .

Open the file with the data set.2. Click Item Response Theory 35 . 3.

As well as to indicate if will use all the data or only a part of them. Then select the items that will be used. 36 .4. This will open the dialogue box “Item Response Data”. 5.

6.In our case will select all the variables as items and then click in All. Then click in Models to open the dialogue box “Item Response Theory”. 37 . in this example only select the 2SP model and click OK. Here have to select the models that will be used.

38 . (Item Response Data).2 Bayesian Estimation using WinBUGS or OpenBUGS For a appropriate analysis of Bayesian inference of the model generated make the following. This generates two data files: the file with the syntax of the model chosen in WinBUGS (Skew Probit 2SP Model) and another file with the syntax of the data. Both files in format txt have to be saved to be opened in the program WinBUGS or OpenBUGS to do the appropriate analysis of Bayesian inference.5. BayesianModeling generates two files. 2. one that contains the model of Binary regression with the link selected and another file that contains the data set.7.

39 . Having activated the window of Skew Probit 2SP Model. Open the files with the syntax of the model and of the data previously generated by the BayesianModeling in WinBUGS or OpenBUGS. This will open the dialogue box “Specification Tool”. txt. 2.1. click Model > Specification 3.

Select in the Skew Probit 2SP Model. the line under data and do click load data. highlighting the word model and click check model. In the left corner below has to appear “model is syntactically correct” that indicates that the syntax of the model has been properly formulated 5.4. In the left corner below appears “data loaded ” indicating that the data have been loaded. Select the model. 40 .txt file.

41 . In the data file select the list of the variables that are placed in the first row and click load data.6.

model initialized” 42 .7. 8. Then click gen inits. This generates the initial values for the Bayesian estimation. In the left corner below has to appears “initial values generated. In the dialogue box “Specification tool” indicate the number of chains that want to generate in the text box “num of chains”. In the left corner below has to appear “model compiled”. Once specified the number of chains to generate (in this example 1 chain) do click compile. Select the line under Inits in the file of the model and click load inits.

9. In the text box updates enter the number of iterations that requires and then click update. 43 . This will open the dialogue box “Update tool”. Click Model > Update 10.

Then should specify that parameters need the program save. 12. 11. 44 . can calculate posteriori statistics of the parameters clicking stats. for this go to Inference > Samples. an estimation of the posteriori density and others statistics of the chains can be calculated using this dialogue box. Repeat the step 10 generating more iterations that now have being saved by the WinBUGS or OpenBugs. a historical of the chains clicking history. In the text box node type the name of the parameter and then click set. which will open the dialogue box “Sample monitor tool”. this has to be done for each parameter.While the program does the iterations. in the left corner below will appear the following message “model is updating” until the iterations finish when the following message “4000 updates took 61 s” appears. In the dialogue box “Sample Monitor Tool”.

1 I14 1 1 . packages for Running WinBUGS and OpeBUGS from R respectively or BRugs (Thomas. . . 0 I13 0 1 . . In the example below implement the 2SP model.e. 1 I03 0 1 . . . . .dat (See section 2. the file called MathData. For this will need the original text file with the data in columns: I01 1 1 . . I12 0 0 . . .2.. 0 I05 0 1 . . Also Bayesian estimation can be implemented by using R2WinBUGS or R2OpenBUGS (Sturtz. 0 I06 1 1 .1) and the syntax of the model generated in BayesianModeling will have to copy only the syntax of the model. .5.. . . .5.. 1 I02 1 1 .3 Bayesian Estimation using WinBUGS or OPENBUGS in R As we have seen in the previous section with the two files that generates the BayesianModeling can implement the Bayesian Estimation using WinBUGS or OpenBugs programs. 2006) a collection of R functions that allow users to analyze graphical models using MCMC techniques. 0 1 1 .. Ligges and Gelman. . 1 . . 2005). . . 45 . . .. 1 I04 1 1 . 1 i. .. . et al. . .. ..

5..0 .0.0.0.0.5. #Available in http://www.0.5.0.5.up[y[i.0.0.5.1.5.0.5.0.j]+1]) V[i.5. 0.1) } #items priors for (j in 1:k) { # usual priors #Bazan et al (2006) # difficulty (-intercept) with prior similar to bilog b[j] ~ dnorm(0.0.) # difficulty centred in zero bc[j] <.5.5.5.5.0.0.5.5.0. 0.5.0.5.5.0.0.5.5.0.5.0.5.0.0.5.0.5.5.0.b[j] .5.5.5.0.5) # discrimination a[j] ~ dnorm(1.0.0.5.0.0.0.0.0.0.2)I(0.0.0.5. 58(170-171).5.5.0.0.5.0.0. #Estadística.5. & Bolfarine (2006).0.0.1.5.5.b=c(0. Leandro.0.5.5.0.0.0.0.0.0.5.5.0.5.0.5. 861-892.5.0.0.0.ime.0.0.5.5.0.0.1.0.0.1) preczs[j]<. J.0.0. (2006).1.5.0.5.5.1.0.0.5.0.5. 0.5.1.5.0.5.0.0.5.j]<-a[j]*theta[i]-b[j] muz[i.0.5.0.0.0.0.0.0.5.0.0.0.5.5.theta=c(0.5.j].0.5.0.0.0. Sensitivity analysis of #prior specification for the probit-normal IRT model: an empirical study.0).0.. Bolfarine.5.0.5.0.5.j] ~ dnorm(muz[i.5.5.br/~jbazan/download/bazanestadistica.0.5.0.0.5.0.0.5.1-delta^2)I(-50.0.5.0.0.5.0. This should copy the syntax before “data” and save it in a file.5.5. 0.0.0.0.0.0.5.0.0.5.txt.5.0.0.0.5.0.0.5.5.0.0.5.0 ## Zs*|y=0~N(-delta*V+m.j]-delta[j]*V[i.0).0.0.j] Zs[i.usp.0.5.5.0.0.0.5.5.5.0.5.0.j]+1].1-delta^2)I(0.5.0.0.0.5.mean(b[]) #Bazan et al 2006 delta[j] ~ dunif(-1.0.0.5.5.0.0.0.5.0.0.0.0.0. lo[2]<.0.) } } #abilities priors for (i in 1:n) { theta[i]~dnorm(0.txt would remain 46 .0.0.1)I(0. 1.pdf #Bazán.0.1. Branco.0.0.5. Then the file modelirt.model{ for (i in 1:n) { for (j in 1:k) { m[i.0.5.0.5.5. D. J. k=14) #load your data in other file Inits list(a=c(1.5.5.5.0.1.0) up[1]<.50) mu<-mean(theta[]) du<-sd(theta[]) } } data list(n=131.5.0.0.5.delta=c(0.0.5.0.0.5.5.0.0.5.0. 0. R.0.0).0.5.0.1. A.5.preczs[j])I(lo[y[i.1.j]<-m[i.1/(1-pow(delta[j].0. #Bayesian Analysis.0. for this example modelirt.5.5)) #Bazán.0.0. M.0.5.5.0.5.0.0.0.5.0.0. 0.-50.j] ~ dnorm(0.0.5.0.5.5.5.0. Journal of the Inter-American Statistical Institute.0.5.5.0..0.0. H.1.5.0.0.0.5.5.0. 1742.0.5.0.0. 0. up[2]<-50 ## Zs*|y=1~N(-delta*V+m. L.0.0.0.0.0.5.5.5.5.0.0.5.5.5.0.5.5.5.2)) lambda[j]<-delta[j]*sqrt(preczs[j]) } lo[1]<.0.0.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.1.5. A skew item response model.

1) preczs[j]<.b[j] .1) } #items priors for (j in 1:k) { # usual priors #Bazan et al (2006) # difficulty (-intercept) with prior similar to bilog b[j] ~ dnorm(0. download the library R2WinBUGS with the following command: library(R2WinBUGS) 2.j]<-m[i.j]+1]) V[i.j] ~ dnorm(0.2)I(0.strip.j] Zs[i.preczs[j])I(lo[y[i.5) # discrimination a[j] ~ dnorm(1.n=131.model{ for (i in 1:n) { for (j in 1:k) { m[i.) } } #abilities priors for (i in 1:n) { theta[i]~dnorm(0.0. header=TRUE. to implement the Bayesian estimation in R will follow the next steps to use the library R2WinBUGS.j] ~ dnorm(muz[i.strings="NA".1)I(0.0 ## Zs*|y=0~N(-delta*V+m.dat".j]+1].matrix(datos). 1.-50.0. Create a list that contain the data and the information of the number of persons and items using the following command n=nrow(datos) k=ncol(datos) data<-list(y=as. Read the data (the MathData.50) mu<-mean(theta[]) du<-sd(theta[]) } } Then.j]<-a[j]*theta[i]-b[j] muz[i.) # difficulty centred in zero bc[j] <. Remember to install it previously. In R.1/(1-pow(delta[j].1-delta^2)I(0.white=TRUE) 3. lo[2]<.j].up[y[i.". na.dat file for this example is placed in the folder F:\MILUS\MathData.0) up[1]<.table("F:/MILUS/MathData. up[2]<-50 ## Zs*|y=1~N(-delta*V+m. dec=".2)) lambda[j]<-delta[j]*sqrt(preczs[j]) } lo[1]<.k=14) 47 . sep="".j]-delta[j]*V[i.dat) datos <.mean(b[]) #Bazan et al 2006 delta[j] ~ dunif(-1.1-delta^2)I(-50.read.

3 0.7 a[7] 0.2 0.theta=rep(n.3 0. out<bugs(data.3 0.0 a[6] 0. n.7 a[13] 0. inits <. each with 24000 iterations (first 4000 discarded).7 a[9] 0.2 0. n.4 0.5 0.2 0.save = is a vector with the names of the parameters of the model which simulations want to store.6 1. fit using WinBUGS. program="WinBUGS") 6.4 0. n.3 0. n.file = is the name of the file where the model is saved.inits.3 0.burnin = is the number of iterations that will be discharged as burn-in.2 0."delta"). 1 chains.6 a[3] 0.2 0.5 0.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 a[11] 1.3 0.5% a[1] 0.0 0.8 0.4 0.thin = 20 n.6 1.3 0.8 1. model.1 48 . Create a program that will generate initial values.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0.k).4 0.to.6 0.3 0.file="F:/MILUS/modelirt.9 0.7 0.burnin=4000.6 1.5 a[8] 0.1 0.txt".5))} 5.9 a[4] 0.to.3 1.3 0.1 0.1 1.6 0.9 a[14] 0.5 a[10] 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.chains=1."b".0 1.k).0 1.k).4.iter = is the number of total iterations of each chain.3 0.save=c("a".4 0.5 0. n.chains = is the number of chains that will be generated.burnin = is the number of iterations that will be discharged as burn-in.6 a[5] 0.sims = 1000 iterations saved mean sd 2.2 0. model.6 2.delta=rep(0.5 0.4 0. program = is the program that will be used to implement the Bayesian inference n.0 a[2] 0.3 0.9 1. If type out in the line of commands of R obtain a summary of the simulation > out Inference for Bugs model at "F:/MILUS/modelirt.2 0.6 1.4 a[12] 0.2 0.b=rep(0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.iter=24000.4 0. Finally the command bugs implements the Bayesian estimation. n.3 0. Then the following command implements the Bayesian estimation and the simulations are stored in the object out.2 0.0 0.9 0.6 0.parameters.3 0.1 0.3 0. Here will explain in brief the syntax of the command bugs parameters. n.4 0.2 0.0 0.txt".2 0.8 1.function(){ list(a=rep(1.1 0.1 1.2 0.

5 -1.3 -1.1 0.4 0. Note that for now we just asked for monitoring the parameters a.9 delta[3] 0.0 0.3 0.8 -0.1 0.9 -0.3 -2.7 0. it will be used as the default.0 b[7] -1. pD = Dbar-Dhat) pD = -52.1 0.5 0.1 0.4 -1.4 -1.3 0.0 3963.5 -0.3 0.4 -1.0 -0.5 -0.7 0.1 0.4 0.7 -0.0 0.9 -0.9 delta[13] 0.5 -1.5 -0.9 -0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.8 -1.9 3814.1 0.6 -1.2 0.1 0.5 b[12] 0.bugs.3 0.4 -1.3 0.5 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 3865. If the global option R2WinBUGS.8 -0.7 -1.5 b[5] -1.7 -3.0 -1.7 b[4] -1.5 -2.4 0.0 0.2 -0.9 -0. execution may be delayed! 49 .9 delta[9] -0.9 delta[6] 0.6 -1.9 0.6 -0.6 -1.2 0.0 0.9 -1.7 -1. either winbugs/WinBUGS or openbugs/OpenBUGS. In addition. Also you can specify the program to use. But if it requires could ask for .0 0.3 0.4 -0.1 0.0 b[14] -1.6 -0.9 -0.4 0.3 0.5 -0.9 -0.6 -2.6 0.1 0.4 -0.5 -0.7 0.8 delta[10] -0. Finally.0 0.9 delta[8] -0.0 0.5 -0.8 -0.7 -0.4 0.8 66.4 1.8 1.9 deviance 3855.2 -0.7 DIC is an estimate of expected predictive error (lower deviance is better).directory is not NULL.3 -1.0 b[3] 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.7 -2.5 0.5 -0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 1.0 and DIC = 3803.1 b[6] 0. You can specify Bug.1 -1.3 0.2 b[9] -0.9 0.0 0.4 -0.1 0. b and delta.5 b[8] -1.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 -0.1 0.4 -0.9 -1.5 -0.6 0.2 0.b[1] -0.9 0.9 -0.9 -0.6 -1.6 -2.9 -0.1 -0.2 0. 7.9 -0.0 b[2] -0.6 -2.3 0.5 -0.0 0. The directory that contains the WinBUGS executable.5 -0.5 delta[1] 0.6 0.0 b[13] -0. because of the large number of parameters in IRT models.5 -0.5 -1.4 -0.6 -2.0 delta[7] -0.5 -0.4 -1.4 -1.2 -0.2 0.4 0. for more details in the command bugs can consult Help writing in the line of commands ?bugs Note.0 0.0 DIC info (using the rule.9 -0.2 -0.0 delta[14] -0.directory.6 0.1 0.5 0.3 -1.9 0.6 -1.3 -1.2 0.3 -1. the latter makes use of function openbugs and requires the CRAN package BRugs.7 -1.9 delta[5] -0.5 -0.5 -1.9 delta[4] -0.0 3904.4 0.0 -0.9 delta[12] 0.2 0.0 delta[2] -0.4 -1.4 0.6 1.9 -0.8 -0.9 delta[11] -0.3 3703.4 0.5 1.2 b[10] -1.0 b[11] -1.1 0.

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