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THE REGENTS SCHOOL PATTAYA THAILAND

AMERICAN INTEREVENTION IN PAKISTAN: HOW FAR IS THE GEORGE W. BUSH ADMINISTRATION RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FAILED PROSPECTS OF PEACE AND STABILITY IN PAKISTAN? CANDIDATE NAME: LI CHUN HO CANDIDATE NUMBER: 001408-032 SESSION: MAY 2012 SUBJECT: POLITICS WORD COUNT: 3971

IB Politics Extended Essay Word count: 3971

Li Chun Ho (Alvin) Candidate Number: 001408-032

Abstract
American foreign policy towards Pakistan over the last 50 years has mainly seen Pakistan as an ally to sustain and reach American policy aims, notably the fall of Communism. Whether their relationship has affected Pakistans state of peace and stability is crucial in underlining if their diplomatic ties entirely rested on the ideological needs America cherishes and the financial and military needs Pakistan requires to defeat the growing radical Islamic extremism. To examine this hypothesis, the research question, American Intervention in Pakistan: How far is the George W. Bush administration responsible for the failed prospects of peace and stability in Pakistan? will be explored. The essay considers: -The dangers Al Qaeda pose to America and their significance; -The nature of Pakistani-American relations before 9/11; -The importance of Pakistans conflict with India and their nuclear capabilities before 9/11; -The problems between the army and the government of Pakistan that affects stability before 9/11; -How the Bush Administration responded to 9/11 and its plans for Pakistans role; -Effects of American intervention in Pakistan on its long term peace and stability outcomes; and -If alternatives with a lesser impact on peace and stability were attainable. The conclusions were reached by employing primary and secondary sources. Primary sources included speeches, interviews and memoirs of officials engaged in influencing Pakistani-American ties. Secondary sources were chiefly defined by monographs on American foreign policy towards Pakistan and Pakistans politics by native authors from both countries. The essay argues that Bushs Administration was largely responsible for the failed prospect of peace and stability in Pakistan, since the War on Terror was declared. This conclusion was the result of examining prior American government foreign policy which instigated a violent Pakistan, the change of governmental and military leaders in Pakistan who compromised security, and the Bush Administrations policy towards Pakistan. Word count: 300

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IB Politics Extended Essay Word count: 3971

Li Chun Ho (Alvin) Candidate Number: 001408-032

Contents
Title page ............................................................................................................................................ 1 Abstract ............................................................................................................................................... 2 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 4 Al Qaeda and their attacks on America .............................................................................................. 5 Pakistani and American ties prior to 9/11 ........................................................................................... 5 Pakistan, India and their nuclear capabilities prior to 9/11 ................................................................. 7 The Army and Government in Pakistan prior to 9/11 ......................................................................... 7 9/11, American response and plans for Pakistan ................................................................................ 8 Effects of American intervention in Pakistan during the War on Terror .......................................... 10 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................ 11 Bibliography ...................................................................................................................................... 13 Appendices........................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Appendix 1 ............................................................................................................................................ 15 Appendix 2: ........................................................................................................................................... 16 Appendix 3: ........................................................................................................................................... 16 Appendix 4: ........................................................................................................................................... 17

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IB Politics Extended Essay Word count: 3971

Li Chun Ho (Alvin) Candidate Number: 001408-032

Introduction
For many years, diplomatic relations bridging Pakistan and the United States has been described as turbulent with weak predictability. During George W. Bushs presidency, the War on Terror in 2003 was steeply dependent on Pakistans logistical, geopolitical and army enthusiasm. This was because Al Qaeda enjoyed prominent presence in both Pakistan and Afghanistan. Although American intervention primarily aimed at eliminating the terrorist elements Al Qaeda and the Taliban cherished that would harm America, there were secondary reasons. They included reducing the threat insurgents and private Islamic armies presented towards undermining the security of Pakistans nuclear arsenal and other important military installations. Although peace and stability have common connotations, their significance in Pakistans context is interpreted differently. Peace can be defined as the privilege of enjoying life at any given point in a place without possible threats against human life because of the strong predictability of the future imposed by governmental norms and society.1 Time span is not considered as a factor. Stability, on the other hand, takes account of duration of time, and questions the possibility of a sudden change in events, from a time of peace to a declaration of emergency, and perhaps war. 2 It is likely to have peace in an unstable society, such as Pakistan. Although there was no formal declaration of a war in Pakistan during the War on Terror, the actions from the strong presence of Islamic armies and the Taliban have mitigated stability. This was attributed by their frequent skirmishes between the borders of Pakistan and India, especially prominent in Kashmir. Their threat to Pakistani nuclear security carries the perilous potential to strike the match instigating an unintended nuclear war. This definition may also connote with political stability, as military coups in the past were also candidates for threatening stability. In order to answer the question, American Intervention in Pakistan: How far is the George W. Bush administration responsible for the failed prospects of peace and stability in Pakistan? consideration must be given to the American policy executed by past administrations as well as the prior stability of Pakistan. The essay will explore: -The dangers Al Qaeda pose to America and their significance; -The nature of Pakistani-American relations before 9/11; -The importance of Pakistans conflict with India and their nuclear capabilities before 9/11; -The problems between the army and the government of Pakistan that affects stability before 9/11; -How the Bush Administration responded to 9/11 and its plans for Pakistans role; -Effects of American intervention in Pakistan on its long term peace and stability outcomes; and -If alternatives with a lesser impact on peace and stability were attainable. To argue justifiably whether the Bush administration was responsible for the failed prospects of peace, crucial decisions made by Presidents prior to Bush that affected the US-Pakistani relations will be considered. Word count: 465
1 2
Culture of Peace (2005) Definition of Culture of Peace [online]. Culture of Peace [cited 13 November, 2011]. Available from <http://www.culture-of-peace.info/copoj/definition.html> World Bank Group (no year) Political stability and absence of violence. World Bank: United States of America. Available from <http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/pdf/pv.pdf>
th

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IB Politics Extended Essay Word count: 3971

Li Chun Ho (Alvin) Candidate Number: 001408-032

Al Qaeda and their attacks on America


The primary objective of the War on Terror was the elimination of Al Qaeda, a prominent Islamic orientated terrorist group committed to waging a Jihad, or holy struggle.3 The group was based in Afghanistan, neighboring west of Pakistan. Although Al Qaeda embraces several ideologies, Islamic fundamentalism is best represented in Osama Bin Ladens writings, who founded and was chiefly responsible for its behavior. An extremist form of the fundamental values of Islam, Islamic fundamentalism attributes enemies who imposed negative impact on Muslims. These are economical, political and cultural collisions that undermine Muslims, the most oppressive including the dominance of oil in the Middle East, supporting the disintegration of Palestinians as an ethnic entity, stationing armed army installations in Middle Eastern countries and the diplomatic encouragement of economic sanctions against Iraq during the Gulf War, roles America substantially played in. It is argued that these interventions defined them as enemies of Islam by Al Qaedas default, also interpreted similarly by former CIA Intelligence officer Michael Scheuers contention, They hate us for what we do, not who we are.4 Often debated whether its initial momentum was encouraged by the writings of Sayyid Qutb, Al Qaeda has been indiscriminate to capacity, targeting individual journalists to governments and societies that undermine Islamic values. Bin Ladens success to manipulate Muslims in waging a jihad against the United States lies in introducing five other values to the religious five pillars of faith taught in Islamic religious schools. Those values were organization, listening, obeying, performing hijra (journey) and jihad for God. They all together called for the collective action to commit a jihad through sacrifice. This was openly expressed in February 1998 when bin Laden issued a fatwa, a religious ruling that ordered Muslims to indiscriminately target Americans: either civilians or government officials. Through persuasion and training, Al Qaeda repetitively organized their followers to commit large scaled attacks on anything representing American integrity worldwide. Although the September 11th, 2001 quadruple attacks on American soil was the massive short term flare that instigated the start of the War on Terror, the cause for retaliation had deeper roots stemming from the 1990s. Over 3,200 lives were lost from Al Qaedas orchestrated attacks of two truck bombs outside the American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in August 1998 and the horrific attacks on American soil on September the 11th. Word count: 389

Pakistani and American ties prior to 9/11


The decisions that the Carter and Reagan administration made in Pakistan perhaps shaped, if not dictated, the future paths of the Pakistani-American relationship. The Cold War between America and the Soviet Union had dramatically escalated by the time President Jimmy Carter took office, and the battle against Communism has spread to Afghanistan before his term ended. Pakistans geopolitical

CNN (2001) Transcript of President Bush's address - Page 4 CNN [online]. CNN [cited 13th November, 2011]. Available from <http://articles.cnn.com/2001-09-20/us/gen.bush.transcript_1_joint-session-nationalanthem-citizens/4?_s=PM:US>

N. Asthana., A. Nirmal (2009) Urban Terrorism: Myths And Realities. Pointer Publishers: India. Page 35

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IB Politics Extended Essay Word count: 3971

Li Chun Ho (Alvin) Candidate Number: 001408-032

advantage to the United States prompted President Carter to name Pakistan as the, frontline State in the global struggle against communism.5 Under the Reagan Doctrine, Pakistan received funds from the Central Intelligence Agency to end Soviet occupation in Afghanistan from 1979. The Reagan Doctrine funded anti-communist fighters to roll back the communists. Operation Cyclone was the biggest CIA funded operation, supplying $5.3 billion worth of army aid and training to facilitate Afghan mujahedeen in defeating Soviet troops. However, following successful Soviet withdrawal in 1988 by Pakistans part, and later the liberation of Muslim republic from the Soviet Union, supplies to Pakistan abruptly ended, leaving behind armed men prepared for future jihads, and in part contributed to the rise of the Taliban. Because Reagan was heavily affixed in defeating the Soviets, calls for Pakistan to end its nuclear weapons program that began in January 1972 or its assurances not to enrich uranium to weapons grade were fruitless in outcome and casual in manner. During the Clinton Administration, Pakistan helped America capture and extradite Islamists who followed bin Ladens fatwa against America, notably Mir Aimal Kansi, who killed two CIA employees, and Ramzi Yousef, who carried out the World Trade Center bombing, respectively in 1993. No help was ever returned to Pakistan for economical and political grounds. Perhaps the worst humiliation Pakistan faced was during an army reception between American General Ralston and Pakistani General Karamat on August 20th, 1998 where General Karamat, seen by America as representing Pakistans interests, was informed of a series of tomahawk strikes that would go over Pakistani airspace into Al Qaeda training camps in America in 10 minutes time.6 How agitated Pakistan was in being told under such short notice was intensified upon learning the missiles destroyed 2 Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence training camps, missing some of the Al Qaeda targets, further undermining the trust and respect between the two nations. It was also during this administration that America became harsher on the emerging nuclear weapons program that Pakistan was building. President Clinton established precautions against proliferation of nuclear weapons against the Soviet Union, treating Pakistan similarly with the threat to label Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism by 1992. President Clinton was keen for the United States Senate to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, whose outcome was sensitive towards nuclear proliferation between India and Pakistan. President Clintons assertion that, our national security people were convinced that, unlike the United States and the Soviet Union in the Cold War, India and Pakistan knew little about each others nuclear capabilities and policies for using them implies that the nuclear conflict between the two South Asian countries placed the world at greater peril compared the nuclear brinkmanship during the Cold War.7 Although a discussion with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on the ongoing Kashmir dispute with India in July 1999 yielded plans to de-escalate the tension was encouraging without nuclear warfare, Pakistans ties with America otherwise went dire. In October, an army coup ousted Prime Minister Sharif as head of state, replaced with General Pervez Musharraf. This drastic change to civilian

Library of Congress, Federal Research Division (2001) Afghanistan: a country study. Claitor's publishing division: United States of America.

6 7

Weaver, M. (2010) Pakistan: Deep inside the World's Most Frightening State. Farrar Straus & Giroux: United States of America. Page 32-34 Clinton, B. (2004) My Life: Bill Clinton. 1st ed., Alfred A. Knopf: United States of America. Page 639

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IB Politics Extended Essay Word count: 3971

Li Chun Ho (Alvin) Candidate Number: 001408-032

control disregarded Americas democratic values and violated the Foreign Appropriations Act, prompting President Clinton to impose economic sanctions on Pakistan. The mood of the political climate imposed by the Clinton administration would continue to sour Pakistani-American relations up to the September 11th attacks. It is therefore suggested unreservedly Americas intervention from the Afghanistan War to imposing economic sanctions in Pakistan was largely unwelcomed by the Pakistan majority. Word count: 638

Pakistan, India and their nuclear capabilities prior to 9/11


As many believe that American officials did not properly understand the importance of Pakistans conflict with India, this has put their ties with Pakistan at a disadvantage. Kashmir, a predominant Muslim region north to both Pakistan and India has been the primary source of tension between the two countries since 1947. It is the second longest cease-fire mandated by the UN in the world along the, Line of Control border. The dispute began subsequent to the independence of India from British colonial rule, which instigated two wars out of many between India and Pakistan. What has complicatedly transformed the dispute from a territorial to a religious one was the rise of Islam in Pakistan, notably by the pressure exerted on Prime Minister Bhutto as well as the aftermath of the Afghanistan war, leaving behind uncountable Islamic armies. This is supported by a State Department officials assertion that, 40 percent of the militants fighting Indian troops in Kashmir are not Kashmiris: they are Pakistanis and Afghans.8 Together with the buildup of militants who, enraged by allegedly rigged 1987 presidential elections, escalated the tension has weakened Pakistans economic stance, which in turn expanded the black market economy dominant on the northwestern region of Pakistan, with a higher net worth compared to Pakistans official GDP. This black market created a stagnant effect on the economy and radicalized the use of arms such that it became rife. Due to the mounting insecurity Pakistan faced, Prime Minister Bhutto resorted to Weapons of Mass Destruction; a nuclear weapons program began in 1972, following Indias pursuit of the same weapon. The pairs successive nuclear testing in May 1998 gravely concerned the world of a nuclear brinkmanship. Americas foreign response to this sudden development only intensified anti-American sentiments in Pakistan and was testimony to the insensitiveness of American foreign policy. The Clinton administration initially imposed sanctions on both Pakistan and India, however they retracted the sanctions enforced on India shortly afterwards, by reinstating non-army aid through President Clintons executive power. Word count: 332

The Army and Government in Pakistan prior to 9/11


The separation of power between Pakistans army and the government was another assault on maintaining a proper strategy to scale down the threats a host of issues posed to the troubled nation. Pakistans army in is technically is ruled by a group of commanders, whose views may contradict those held by the Prime Minister, who possesses authority over military matters. However, the military commanders, notably General Pervez Musharraf, Chief of Army Staff, are responsible for executing his instructions. This meant there were no civilian controls over the army. Tensions and
8

Weaver, M. (2010) Pakistan: Deep inside the World's Most Frightening State. Farrar Straus & Giroux: United States of America. Page 31

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IB Politics Extended Essay Word count: 3971

Li Chun Ho (Alvin) Candidate Number: 001408-032

dislocation of communication between the two factions were first demonstrated during the administration of Nawaz Sharif on a visit to the United States in an attempt to resolve the land dispute pertaining to the Line of Control between the two countries. President Clinton had playe d the role of arbitrator between India and Pakistan over conflicting land disputes. General Musharraf recalled his agitation, upon learning Prime Minister Sharifs agreement to withdraw Pakistani troops from the Northwestern region of Pakistan, a decision the army was never discussed with, claiming that, the decisions taken in Washington were totally his.9 The growing disparity of strategy over India between the pair resulted in a coup attempted by Sharif to oust General Musharraf. This strain followed four previous coups during Pakistans independent years. The Generals long record of ruling Pakistan during its 62 independent years made him a powerful candidate to be approached in an effort to stop Pakistan from falling into complete chaos contributed by the divided military and various private Islamic armies. This failed, resulting in Musharraf taking stances which ultimately allowed him to assume presidential power in June 2001. This further stained US-Pakistani ties, with Americas frequent calls for democracy. However, this was not Americas primary concern. As emphasized by President Clinton, the manner in which nuclear weapons were controlled by Pakistan crucially affected global security. Upon General Musharrafs succession to presidential office, the Commander-in-Chief was no longer under civilian control, as was the case with Prime Minister Sharif, who never joined the army. By the end of Sharifs administration in October 1999, the Taliban were dominant in both Pakistan and Afghanistan, with a third of Northwestern Pakistan bordering the Line of Control border under Taliban control. More frustrating is the addition of up to 40 small Islamic armies, many whom contributed to the series of proxy wars against India and have factions in the Pakistani army. This created the fear of possible attacks to capture the 40 or so nuclear warheads spread around Pakistan, which was the similar scenario America feared with the Soviets during the Cold War, where Soviet officers might launch offensive strikes against America without Moscows consent. Accusations alleging Pakistans army and its ISI unit were assisting the Taliban stemming from the United States, has also been a tense issue between the two ruling factions of the country, an issue that would prove to have more futile results after the War on Terror had been declared. Word count: 497

9/11, American response and plans for Pakistan


On September 11th, 2001 Al Qaeda Jihadists carried out a series of aviation-orientated attacks on key American symbols and federal government facilities, successfully causing the collapse of the World Trade Center Towers and partial structural collapse to the Pentagon, taking the lives of 2977 individuals, which devastated a wide majority of the American population and was the worst terrorist attack on American soil to date. Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda affiliates were quickly established as responsible for the attacks barely hours after the terrorist acts. President Bush called them, an act of war, promising not to,

Weaver, M. (2010) Pakistan: Deep inside the World's Most Frightening State. Farrar Straus & Giroux: United States of America. Page 31

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IB Politics Extended Essay Word count: 3971

Li Chun Ho (Alvin) Candidate Number: 001408-032

relent in waging this struggle for freedom and security for the American people .10 Secretary of State Colin Powell also warned, We have to make it clear to Pakistan and Afghanistan this is showtime.11 War is centrally defined as a direct conflict between two or more countries, when there is a clear link of intention. By suggesting the attacks were, an act of war, it would require the mounting of one since it encouraged war. However, Al Qaeda orchestrated the acts in the capacity of a terrorist organization with no enforcement from a specific country that is primarily hidden within Pakistan and Afghanistan. This gives American response against Al Qaeda two possible strategies; either generalize Pakistan and Afghanistan as equally guilty for sponsoring terrorism, or setting an alliance with them in defeating Al Qaeda. Colin Powells comments did not rule out the possibility of one of them, where show-time may suggest the era of stronger cooperation and willingness from the two countries to support Al Qaedas defeat, or to go to war against them. Americas initial position from the executive command was made clearer with Bushs further comments by the evening that, We will make no distinction between those who planned these acts and those who harbor them, 12 confirming the generalization of host terrorism states as terrorists themselves. This, however, proved to be a positive turning point in the US-Pakistani ties that arguably was not possible without the economically undeveloped status the country held. Following several addresses to the State of the Union, the Bush administration released the National Strategy for Combating Terrorism in February 2003 that defined the goals and objectives set by declaring a War on Terror. A number of these objectives were inter-correlated with mutual interests where one must be attained in order to reach the following ones. Out of the many, particular ones requiring Pakistan as a major ally were: -Locate terrorists and their organizations; -Destroy terrorists and their organizations; -End the state sponsorship of terrorism; and -Strengthen and sustain the international effort to fight terrorism.13 This series of objectives and goals shaped what became the, Bush Doctrine, a strategy against the War on Terror. With this, the Bush administration clearly expressed a much different policy approach than that adapted by predecessors, by breaking the traditional characteristics of American policy which was Isolationism and being a non-interventionist to affairs outside its sphere of influence of the Pacific Ocean which does not affect the values it cherishes, such as democracy. This dramatic turn was likely to affect Americas ties with Pakistan. What happened after 9/11 perhaps was the key turning point in Pakistani-American ties. Since these objectives required Pakistans support, both logistically and militarily, as early as the next day after
10

The History Place- Great Speeches Collection (no date) The History Place George W. Bush Speech to Congress Sept. 20, 2001 [online]. The History Place - Great Speeches Collection [Cited August 2nd, 2011]. <http://www.historyplace.com/speeches/gw-bush-9-11.htm>

11

Abbas, H. (2006) Inside Story of Musharraf-Mahmood Tussle [online]. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University [Cited November 13 th, 2011]. Available from <http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/1598/inside_story_of_musharrafmahmood_tussle.html>

12

Abbas, H. (2004) Pakistan's Drift into Extremism: Allah, the Army, and America's War on Terror. Yale University Press: United States of America. Page 217

13

The White House (2003) National Strategy for Combating Terrorism. The United States Federal Government: United States of America.

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9/11 important officials of the Pakistani government were invited to a discussion with CIA officials. The officials, prominently General Mahmood Ahmed was asked whether Pakistan would cooperate willingly with the United States, who asked for either a positive or negative response. General Mahmoods reply that Pakistan, along with General Musharraf, then President of Pakistan, was willing to cooperate was made for a number of reasons. Going against the United States would likely highly result in continued economic sanctions, the addition of Pakistan onto the terrorism sponsor states as well as possible diplomatic isolation from the West. These factors would further place Pakistan at a disadvantage in respect to its military position to India; due to the fact India might join the coalition with the United States. This possible scenario would further weaken Pakistan on the global stage. Following the generals unanimous willingness to cooperate, American officials presented the Pakistani government with a list of instructions requiring complete compliancy. The majority focused on undermining the central elements of terrorism in Pakistan. Some of the notable ones included refusing to supply fuel for the Taliban, preventing Pakistanis from becoming Taliban members and to end support with Afghanistan should it be determined that bin Laden is in Afghanistan. The Pakistani government was also urged on extinguishing public opinion that encouraged acts of terror. These proposals posed a significant dilemma for the Pakistani government in particular. Not only would the diplomatic ties with Afghanistan worsen, it was highly probable that government support for America would contribute to a rise of Anti-Americanism among Islamists. Word count: 810

Effects of American intervention in Pakistan during the War on Terror


Consistent American intervention in Pakistan worsened the search for the defeat of Al Qaeda, with journalist and writer Mary Weaver branding the War as a, war of contradictions and confusions.14 This declaration was made amid the military intervention America subjected Pakistan to, including predator drone strikes. Remotely manned by pilots in army bases, these drones are typically used for surveillance and elimination of militants and terrorists, with Hellfire missiles. Although this distances American soldiers from casualties, it has placed Pakistani civilians at higher risks as victims to the War on Terror. It created outrage from the Pakistani population, who opposed American intervention of this magnitude. This reached the heights of incompetency to the Pakistanis by January 2006, where a suspected American drone intending to strike a structure with Ayman al-Zawahiri, a senior high ranking Al Qaeda official, failed, and instead created great collateral damage that with the loss of 18 civilian lives.15 These attacks were carried out by the CIA, under instruction from President Bush. This was the last draw for Pakistani endurance, as the biggest Anti-American protest wave since the War on Terror began further generated greater American resentment. By the end of Bushs administration, one out of three drone strikes wouldve killed a chil d, with civilian casualties of 385775 losses.16 The Pakistani government, in an effort to quell a possible uprising of irate Pakistan
14
Weaver, M. (2010) Pakistan: Deep inside the World's Most Frightening State. Farrar Straus & Giroux: United States of America. Page 5

15

Hussain, Z. (2010) The Scorpion's Tail : The Relentless Rise of Islamic Militants in Pakistan-and How it

Threatens America. First Free Press: United States of America. Page 82-83

16

The Bureau of Investigating Journalism (2011) Drone War Exposed the complete picture of CIA strikes in Pakistan: TBIJ [online]. The Bureau of Investigating Journalism [Cited 25th of August, 2011]. < http://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/2011/08/10/most-complete-picture-yet-of-cia-dronestrikes/> Page 10 out of 17

IB Politics Extended Essay Word count: 3971

Li Chun Ho (Alvin) Candidate Number: 001408-032

civilians, often attempted to cover up such incidents by shifting the blame to the ISI or itself, with little or no credibility at all. However, it was not only Americas default in military strategy that threatened stability. In late 2006, President Musharraf, with General Ali Jan Aurakzai recommended to Washington a change of tactics, where declared cease-fires with the Taliban could encourage early withdrawal for American soldiers in Afghanistan, as they were not permitted to be in Pakistani soil. Although this was initially agreed with President Bush, the strategy had mounting problems, as it encouraged the border transitioning of the Taliban between the borders of Afghanistan and Pakistan, with many deaths attributed by the retaliation that the Taliban sought against government informants. In addition, the Pakistani government, notably General Musharraf, had been reluctant in fighting the Taliban due to the geographical disadvantage of opening two fronts, one on the West to fight the Taliban while another one on the East against India. Pakistans position with India has also affected American contingency efforts in Pakistan. This is primarily due to the fear of an impending attack, which results in the tying up of a large number of Pakistani soldiers to be stationed near the Line of Control , overseeing the disputed region of Kashmir. In this respect, there was wide spread sentiment in Pakistan that America showed indifference towards Pakistans interests of security against India regarding nuclear brinkmanship. As early as 2002, the Bush Administration forcibly demanded that the army withdraw its troops from the Line of Control, to the Western frontier of Pakistan, facing the Taliban. A huge price was also given by the Bush administration to secure Pakistans nuclear arsenal with $100 million from possible sabotage and raids from the Taliban and the many private Islamic armies, for by 2001, Pakistan was estimated to possess around 40 to 60 nuclear warheads. Word count: 537

Conclusion
The comments of General Anthony Zinni, the peace envoy to the Middle East during the Bush administration generally summed up the belief that America has indeed pressured Pakistan into its current state through past administration policies, by saying, Through our sanctions, through our attitudes toward them, were forcing the Pakistani army inward17 Such a collapse was first constructed by the Reagans Doctrine that left capably armed men who were prepared for another jihad, which ultimately contributed to the Talibans rise. Whereupon, the Clinton Administration, in an effort to reduce nuclear proliferation and also the high risk of a possible seizure of nuclear weapons, imposed heavy sanctions, both economically and militarily on Pakistan. Therefore, without Reagans intervention in Pakistan, the peace and stability would not have had to be attempted to be regained during the War on Terror. This is because the War on Terror also included the Taliban in its wipe-out list. However, attention must also be paid to the stability of the government and the military of Pakistan. With 4 coups in 62 of its independent years that resulted in the absence of civilian control, the interests of the army became diverged, evidence of a disintegration that led to private radical Islamic armies. Taking the complex nature of this power struggle into account, it has made Pakistan difficult to fully benefit from American intervention. Therefore, it seems appropriate to suggest that while

17

Weaver, M. (2010) Pakistan: Deep inside the World's Most Frightening State. Farrar Straus & Giroux : United States of America. Page 35

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Bush may be held responsible for failed prospects of peace and stability with Pakistan, the Administrations responsibility also lies with Pakistans army and its unstable past political climate. Recognition that the nature of the sources collected are mainly on extreme sides of the spectrum, either from the American or Pakistani point of view must be given in order to reach a unbiased conclusion of the merits of the arguments given. Word count: 303

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Bibliography
Abbas, H. (2004) Pakistan's Drift into Extremism: Allah, the Army, and America's War on Terror. Yale University Press: United States of America. Abbas, H. (2006) Inside Story of Musharraf-Mahmood Tussle [online]. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University [Cited November 13th, 2011]. Available from <http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/1598/inside_story_of_musharrafmahmood_tussle.ht ml> Ali, T. (2009) The Duel: Pakistan on the Flight Path of American Power. Scribner: (country of publication unknown). Bush, G. and Dietrich, J. (2005) The George W. Bush foreign policy reader: presidential speeches and commentary. M.E. Sharpe Press: United States of America. Clinton, B. (2004) My Life: Bill Clinton. 1st ed., United States of America: Alfred A. Knopf. CNN (2001) Transcript of President Bush's address - Page 4 CNN [online]. CNN [cited 13th November, 2011]. Available from <http://articles.cnn.com/2001-0920/us/gen.bush.transcript_1_joint-session-national-anthem-citizens/4?_s=PM:US> Cohen, C. (2007) A perilous course: U.S. strategy and assistance to Pakistan. CSIS Press: United States of America. Culture of Peace (2005) Definition of Culture of Peace [online]. Culture of Peace [cited 13th November, 2011]. Available from <http://www.culture-of-peace.info/copoj/definition.html> Daalder, I. and Lindsay J. (2003) America unbound: the Bush revolution in foreign policy. Brookings Institution Press: United States of America. Greenstein, F. (2003) The George W. Bush presidency: an early assessment. JHU Press: United States of America. Hilali, A. (2005) US-Pakistan relationship: Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. MPG Books Ltd: Great Britain. Hussain, Z. (2010) The Scorpion's Tail : The Relentless Rise of Islamic Militants in Pakistan-and How it Threatens America. First Free Press: United States of America. Library of Congress, Federal Research Division (2001) Afghanistan: a country study. Claitor's publishing division: United States of America. Ministry of Defense, Government of Pakistan (2011) Defense Budget. Pakistan: Ministry of Defense, Government of Pakistan. Available from < http://202.83.164.27/wps/wcm/connect/24f83a80489082d5be1abf38079c81b5/National+and+Defe nce+Budget.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=24f83a80489082d5be1abf38079c81b5&CACHEID=24f83 a80489082d5be1abf38079c81b5> N. Asthana., A. Nirmal (2009) Urban Terrorism: Myths And Realities. Pointer Publishers: India. Page 13 out of 17

IB Politics Extended Essay Word count: 3971

Li Chun Ho (Alvin) Candidate Number: 001408-032

Sathasivam, K. (2005) Uneasy neighbors: India, Pakistan, and US foreign policy. TJ International: Great Britain. Schaffer, T. (2004) Pakistan's future and U.S. policy options: a report of the CSIS South Asia. CSIS Press: United States of America. The Bureau of Investigating Journalism (2011) Drone War Exposed the complete picture of CIA strikes in Pakistan: TBIJ [online]. The Bureau of Investigating Journalism [Cited 25th of August, 2011]. < http://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/2011/08/10/most-complete-picture-yet-of-cia-dronestrikes/> The Guardian UK (2011) US assistance to Pakistan 1948-2010 (millions, constant 2009 $US). Great Britain: The Guardian UK. Available from < http://www.guardian.co.uk/globaldevelopment/poverty-matters/2011/jul/11/us-aid-to-pakistan> The History Place- Great Speeches Collection (no date) The History Place George W. Bush Speech to Congress Sept. 20, 2001 [online]. The History Place - Great Speeches Collection [Cited August 2nd, 2011]. http://www.historyplace.com/speeches/gw-bush-9-11.htm The White House (2003) National Strategy for Combating Terrorism. The United States Federal Government: United States of America.

United Nations, Department of Peacekeeping Operations: Cartographic Section (2004)


Political map of countries surrounding Pakistan, 1:5,00,000. Place of publication not given: United Nations Department of Peacekeeping Operations: Cartographic Section. United States Government Accountability Office (2009) Afghanistan and Pakistan: Oversight of U. S. Interagency Efforts. GAO-09-1015T, GAO: United States of America. United States Institute of Peace (2005) U. S. -Pakistan Engagement: The War on Terrorism and Beyond. USIP: United States of America. Weaver, M. (2010) Pakistan: Deep inside the World's Most Frightening State. Farrar Straus & Giroux: United States of America. World Bank Group (no year) Political stability and absence of violence. World Bank: United States of America. Available from <http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/pdf/pv.pdf>

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IB Politics Extended Essay Word count: 3971

Li Chun Ho (Alvin) Candidate Number: 001408-032

Appendices: Appendix 1: Political map of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

Map courtesy of United Nations Department of Cartographic Section (2004).

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IB Politics Extended Essay Word count: 3971

Li Chun Ho (Alvin) Candidate Number: 001408-032

Appendix 2: The costs of American assistance to Pakistan (1948-2010).

Courtesy of The Guardian UK (2011).

Appendix 3: Spending of Pakistans National versus Defense Budget (2001-2012 projected)

Courtesy of the Pakistan Ministry of Finance (2011).


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IB Politics Extended Essay Word count: 3971

Li Chun Ho (Alvin) Candidate Number: 001408-032

Appendix 4: Nature of casualties resulted from CIA drone strikes in Pakistan (2004-2011)

Courtesy of The Bureau of Investigative Journalism (2011).


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