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2013 4 16

0755-83515478

S1070510120004

0755-83881632
S1070112060024

1998-2004

30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%

()

Wind

http://www.cgws.com

1998-2004

1A
120

2.5

100

80
1.5
60
1
40
0.5

20

1.
2012

1998
-2004

1998

GDP 12% 6%
5 2012
GDP

2015
960 2011
1025.6
1997
801.3

21993-2004 GDP

32004 GDP
16

16

14

14

12

12

10

10

Mar-04
Jul-04
Nov-04
Mar-05
Jul-05
Nov-05
Mar-06
Jul-06
Nov-06
Mar-07
Jul-07
Nov-07
Mar-08
Jul-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Jul-09
Nov-09
Mar-10
Jul-10
Nov-10
Mar-11
Jul-11
Nov-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12

Mar-92
Sep-92
Mar-93
Sep-93
Mar-94
Sep-94
Mar-95
Sep-95
Mar-96
Sep-96
Mar-97
Sep-97
Mar-98
Sep-98
Mar-99
Sep-99
Mar-00
Sep-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04

41993-2004

52004
1400

900
800

1200

700
1000

600
500

800

400
600
300
400

200
100

200

0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

1995 28
1996
19
-21 2
2 2001
84

25 15 500
0.5
2012 3
2012 12

1998 2
34 57.5 27 222
2012 12
3 DBP 1.08 /

0.3 / DBP 260%


1998 312 228
2012 2200 1200
1

23 ,

1995

1996

19 -21 2

2
84

2001

25 15 500 0.5

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

,
2000

2.

1.
2.
3.

3.

1998
1998-2004

10

8
350

70000

35%

300

60000

40%

30%
250

50000

25%

200

20%

150

15%

40000
30000

10%

100

5%

20000
50

0%

10000
0

-5%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

4.
1998

2001 0.5 /

1998 2002

2003

2003 10% 20% 2001


22% 2009
14%
2

2003

9 2001 2009

10
40%

60000

35%
30%

50000

25%

30%
20%

40000
20%
30000
15%
20000
10%
10000

5%

0%
-10%
-20%
-30%

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

0%
1996

10%

5.

10

40%

93 2012
79.84 () 21.45
43.48 14.91
15%
90
15%
600
2012 11.2
1.8 2011 0.2
0.9 2011 8.5
14 700
560 84

2012 6702
2000 20% 400
1000
25% 250

GDP

1170

12
40%

18%
16%

35%

14%

30%

12%

25%

10%
20%
8%
15%

6%

4%

10%

Nov-12

Jul-12

Mar-12

Nov-11

Jul-11

Mar-11

Nov-10

Jul-10

Mar-10

Nov-09

Jul-09

Mar-09

Nov-08

Jul-08

Mar-08

Nov-07

Jul-07

Mar-07

Nov-06

Jul-06

0%

Mar-06

0%
-2%

Nov-05

5%

Jul-05

2%

-4%

13

14
50%

80%
69%

40%

70%
30%

59%
60%

20%
50%

44%

43%

40%

0%

30%

-10%
-20%

10%

-30%
Jan-03
Jun-03
Nov-03
Apr-04
Sep-04
Feb-05
Jul-05
Dec-05
May-06
Oct-06
Mar-07
Aug-07
Jan-08
Jun-08
Nov-08
Apr-09
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jul-10
Dec-10
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Aug-12
Jan-13

20%

0%
2009

2010

10%

2011

2012

15GDP
100%

16
40%

2%

3%

5%

7%

9%

8%

50%

49%

4%

4%

3%

3%
35%

90%
80%
70%

30%
57%

54%

53%

51%

49%

48%

49%

49%
25%

60%
20%

50%

15%

40%
30%
20%

10%
41%

43%

42%

42%

42%

44%

47%

48%

48%

48%
5%

10%
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13

0%
0%

1.

,
40%2.

10 3.

17

18
500000

1800

52

1600

1400

450000

400000
350000

1200
300000
1000
250000
800
200000
600
150000
400
100000
200
50000
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

10

0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6.

140
800
11 65 1200
13 9.23
65 45 13.3
3.5 490 6517
800 521

19

20

1,400

600

1,200

500

510

1,000

400

800
300
600
200

160

400

140

100
200
0

0
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012E

2011
3167 1 6.15
3.9 3.5
1.24
6756 ,
2009 26.7
2012
120 3 13
8.9 / 9.2 /

11

21/

22()
8,000

600

7,000
500
6,000
400
5,000
300

4,000

200

3,000

100

2,000
1,000

0
2007-01

2008-01

2009-01

2010-01

bloomberg

23

24/

2011-01

2012-01

30,000
720
25,000

710
700

20,000

690
15,000

680
670

10,000

660
5,000
650
0

640
630
620
2005

2006

2007

bloomberg

2008

2009

7.

1999 2012
12

1.
2.

1.

2.
3.

25

26
12%

45%
40%

10%

35%
8%

30%
25%

6%

20%
15%

4%

10%
2%

5%
0%

Mar-99
Sep-99
Mar-00
Sep-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12

Mar-99
Sep-99
Mar-00
Sep-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12

0%

264

272

120

65

173

33

16

4466

5.91%

6.09%

2.69%

1.46%

3.87%

0.74%

0.36%

100.00%

140

103

44

13

62

818

17.11%

12.59%

5.38%

1.59%

7.58%

0.73%

0.37%

100.00%

wind

13

Mar-01
Jul-01
Nov-01
Mar-02
Jul-02
Nov-02
Mar-03
Jul-03
Nov-03
Mar-04
Jul-04
Nov-04
Mar-05
Jul-05
Nov-05
Mar-06
Jul-06
Nov-06
Mar-07
Jul-07
Nov-07
Mar-08
Jul-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Jul-09
Nov-09
Mar-10
Jul-10
Nov-10
Mar-11
Jul-11
Nov-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Mar-13

27
50,000

45,000

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

14

2001

2012

: 6 15%;
6 5%-15%;
6 -5%-5%;
6 5%.
: 6 ;
6 ;
6 .

0755-8351623113760273833liux@cgws.com
0755-8351621713808859088wangt@cgws.com
0755-8351628718607195599chenfy@cgws.com
0755-8351520313826520778chensf@cgws.com

010-88366060-873013701166983zhaodong@cgws.com
010-88366060-886513911393598yangj@cgws.com
010-88366060-880718600345118wyuan@cgws.com
010-88366060-875018611670060lyany@cgws.com
010-88366060-876818600232070ayz@cgws.com
010-88366060-113318616891195liss@cgws.com

021-6168031418602109861xieyw@cgws.com
021-6168038915821566166chenyun@cgws.com
021-6168067015001991899yang_yang@cgws.com
021-6168067313795367644xujl@cgws.com

6008 16
518034 86-755-83516207
112 10
100044 86-10-88366686
1399 3
200135 021-61680357
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