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Given the Mean Annual Return of two investments (like Stocks and Bonds) and the annualized Volatility

(or Standard Deviation) of each and a degree of Correlation between the two
the Monte Carlo (MC) sheet picks random annual returns* for each, over the next umpteen years and,
assuming some split between the two investment types - like 75% of the former and 25% of the latter (and an annual rebalancing to maintain this split), sees how much would be in your portfolio
if you invest annually (this amount increasing annually with inflation)
and you give the spreadsheet some hoped-for Final Portfolio (starting at some Initial Portfolio)
and it does this hundreds of times to see what fraction of these iterations
would yield a Final portfolio less than $50K, or less than $100K or $500K
or even more than your hoped-for Final Portfolio :^)
(These amounts are the BreakPoints.)
See: http://home.golden.net/~pjponzo/Monte-Carlo.htm for "the Math"

Since it takes some time, you can ask for just ONE run (of umpteen hundred iterations you decide how may hundreds
or a collection of runs, using three different Stock/Bond splits and three different Investment Amounts
(that makes NINE scenarios, eh?).
There's also a chart of some sample portfolios.
The red graph on this chart is the deterministic portfolio evolution: it uses an Annualized Return
then sets both Standard Deviations to zero. The Monte Carlo simulations fluctuate about this graph.
P.S. The software needs the Average (or Mean) annual returns. If you know the Annualized returns, you
can Click a Button and get 'em changed to Average.
Note: the (random) returns are Log-normally distributed but you can also ask for a Normal distribution.
This spreadsheet began life as a child of Richard Pritz with help from Peter Van and Peter Ponzo.

alized Volatility

you decide how may hundreds)

e about this graph.


ed returns, you

a Normal distribution.

You'll want to know how often your Final Portolio was greater
than (for example) $100K or $200K or $300K, etc.
To allow you to do this, change the minimum amount in cell T2
and the increment in cell R5 like so:
The spreadsheet will calculate how often the Final Portfolio was
less than (for example) $100K, $200K, etc.
Neat, eh?

Okay, here's another variant:

A standard Monte Carlo simulation uses a fixed Mean Return and Standard Deviation and Distribution (Normal? Log-norm
over the 10, 20, 30, etc. years considered by the simulation

You don't like that?


Then how about selecting, for your Stock gain, at random, monthly gains from a collection of monthly gains of the S&P 50
from Jan, 1926 to May, 2001? (At last count, there's 905 of 'em and they live in column AI as "1+Monthly Return")
You like that? Remember, that includes the 1929 crash!!
You can put your own (1+MonthlyReturn) data in column AI. Just be sure to first delete the data that's there!
If you'd like to see the effect of that choice (where you don't assume some fixed Mean, Standard Deviation or Distribution,
but use real, live historical returns), then instead of typing N or L in cell B9, type S (for S&P, eh?).
The MC software will, when calculating an annual Stock gain, multiply together a dozen monthly selections
(at random, of course) from the collection of 905 S&P 500 gains (which live in column AI).
The annual Bond gain, however, will be the standard Log-normal distribution with your choice
of Mean and Standard Deviation.

P.S. For the past umpteen years (since 1926) appropriate, nominal (as opposed to inflation-adjusted) "annual" numbers ar
Average S&P Stock Return: 10.9% Standard Deviation: 20%
Bonds - 5 year U.S. treasuries: Average Return: 5.5% Standard Deviation: 6%
Correlation: 8%
See Richard's page for more data: http://www.geocities.com/snarkll/

d Distribution (Normal? Log-normal?)

of monthly gains of the S&P 500,


as "1+Monthly Return")

te the data that's there!

ndard Deviation or Distribution,

onthly selections

n-adjusted) "annual" numbers are:

Stocks Bonds ** If B2/C2 are Annualized Returns **

15%

$4,500,000
Bond: Gain=4.0% SD=8.0%
Inflation=2.0% Correlation=15.0%
$4,000,000

2.0%

Enter Inflation Rate (=Investment increase)

$3,500,000

Enter the number of Years to consider


Enter just the number of Hundreds

$3,000,000

$0

$1,500,000

$500,000

Probability Final portfolio exceeds $1,000,000 (after 30 years)

120%
100%
80%

65%
52%

60%
40%

71%

73%

77%

25%
50%

50%

40%

75%

25%

20%
0%
$10,000

79%

$12,000

Created by Richard Pritz with the assistance of Peter Vann & Peter Ponzo.

$14,000

Percentage of Iterations

Run ONE: just 25% Stock, $10,000 Annual


Run all NINE Stock Percentages / Investments

18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%

16

14

$0

Number of Iterations vs Final Po

75% stock, $14,000 annual investment

<=$1200K

73% Final Portfolio


77%
79% > $1,000,000

12

50%
65%
71%

$1,000,000

Probability

<=$1000K

25%
40%
52%

$14,000

Average Portfolio

10

$12,000

Initial =

25%
50%
75%

$2,000,000

<=$600K

Stock Percentage

$10,000

$1,000,000

Annual Investment

Final Portfolio =

Deterministic Gain = 5.5%

$2,500,000

<=$400K

Change only the data in the boxes


Normal, Log-normal, S&P ?
L

30
10

<=$200K

Years =
Iterations/100 =

Annual Inflation =

Stock: Gain=8.0% SD=20.0%

Enter the Volatilities : Stocks & Bonds


8.0%
Enter the Correlation : Stocks & Bonds

Annual Standard Deviation = 20.0%


Correlation =

Sample Portfolios: (30-years worth) 75% stock, $14,000 annual investment


$5,000,000

4.0%

<=$800K

8.0%

<=$0K

Average Annual Return =

Final portfolio

Check Sum

rs worth) 75% stock, $14,000 annual investment

100.0%

Iterations =

Deterministic Gain = 5.5%


Average Portfolio

30

28

26

24

22

20

18

16

BreakPoint Increment = $200,000

100

BreakPoints

0.0%

$0

0.0%

$200,000

0.0%

$400,000

4.0%

$600,000

9.0%

$800,000

10.0%

$1,000,000

10

16.0%

$1,200,000

16

10.0%

$1,400,000

10

12.0%

$1,600,000

12

8.0%

$1,800,000

5.0%

$2,000,000

9.0%

$2,200,000

17.0%

Number of Iterations vs Final Portfolio


Final Portfolio in today's dollars: $552,071

Deterministic Gain = 5.5%

Current Stock Percentage

75.0%

Current Withdrawal Rate

$14,000

Annualized Stock Gain

6.1%

Annualized Bond Gain

3.7%

Mixed Annual Gain

5.5%

Sample Portfolios: (30-years worth) 75% stock, $14,000 annual investment

>$2200K

<=$2200K

<=$2000K

<=$1800K

<=$1600K

<=$1400K

<=$1200K

Number of Iterations vs Final Portfolio

Final portfolio

9
17

75% stock, $14,000 annual investment


Probability Final portfolio exceeds $1,000,000 (after 30 years)
Stock: Gain=8.0% SD=20.0% Bond: Gain=4.0% SD=8.0% Inflation=2.0% Correlation=15.0%

Years

Labels

<=$0K

Blanks

Table-Lookup Values: Mean


Deterministic
= 0, SD = 1Invest$
0.0025

-2.807

14,000

14,000

Sample Portfolios

<=$200K

0.0050

-2.576

29,053

14,280

<=$400K

0.0075

-2.432

45,223

<=$600K

0.0100

-2.326

<=$800K

0.0125

-2.241

<=$1000K

0.0150

<=$1200K

<=$1400K

S&P Gains

1.000

27,179

30,788

29,956

31,699

29,946

0.962

14,566

41,145

47,437

45,526

47,464

43,948

0.943

62,577

14,857

56,828

79,923

56,992

64,996

60,203

1.025

81,187

15,154

78,846

85,852

60,656

69,510

79,532

1.018

-2.170

101,127

15,457

100,098

125,505

94,264

117,174

96,575

1.046

0.0175

-2.108

122,477

15,766

115,718

165,155

117,756

120,365

126,038

1.048

0.0200

-2.054

145,322

16,082

107,114

213,631

108,129

144,796

152,451

1.025

<=$1600K

0.0225

-2.005

169,750

16,403

119,336

251,575

136,966

161,617

154,139

1.025

<=$1800K

0.0250

-1.960

195,855

16,731

148,065

271,824

158,460

265,625

201,444

0.972

10

<=$2000K

0.0275

-1.919

223,736

17,066

164,249

337,867

202,862

339,578

254,018

1.035

11

<=$2200K

0.0300

-1.881

253,497

17,407

159,865

341,767

217,465

362,877

246,612

1.020

12

>$2200K

0.0325

-1.845

285,251

17,755

192,514

267,891

314,876

321,380

286,181

0.981

13

0.0350

-1.812

319,113

18,110

223,281

378,874

360,488

349,420

306,282

1.054

14

0.0375

-1.780

355,207

18,473

276,153

418,964

510,241

457,135

297,831

1.009

15

0.0400

-1.751

393,663

18,842

331,628

578,339

542,385

626,467

253,094

1.020

16

0.0425

-1.722

434,620

19,219

381,861

661,326

640,206

631,183

387,430

1.061

17

0.0450

-1.695

478,223

19,603

411,694

842,524

713,289

624,060

316,357

0.993

18

0.0475

-1.670

524,626

19,995

406,920

1,052,271

786,045

633,522

351,641

1.067

19

0.0500

-1.645

573,991

20,395

383,530

1,339,021

1,011,912

710,765

383,899

1.052

20

0.0525

-1.621

626,490

20,803

460,824

1,593,491

927,616

763,479

479,672

1.045

21

0.0550

-1.598

682,303

21,219

448,129

2,178,518

910,741

786,923

521,234

0.950

22

0.0575

-1.576

741,624

21,644

442,151

2,480,008

1,072,803

826,454

547,371

1.072

23

0.0600

-1.555

804,652

22,077

471,642

2,751,317

905,452

1,069,488

697,723

1.028

24

0.0625

-1.534

871,603

22,518

456,460

2,572,475

797,346

1,238,788

715,252

0.996

25

0.0650

-1.514

942,701

22,968

377,488

2,231,458

723,874

1,523,669

968,364

0.988

26

0.0675

-1.495

1,018,185

23,428

306,151

3,650,110

885,013

1,529,977

1,107,004

1.110

27

0.0700

-1.476

1,098,305

23,896

341,213

3,247,040

1,010,942

1,630,474

1,029,902

1.035

28

0.0725

-1.457

1,183,327

24,374

412,601

3,132,688

1,279,809

1,762,678

1,156,191

1.020

29

0.0750

-1.440

1,273,532

24,862

456,780

3,789,628

1,757,530

2,400,051

1,288,481

0.962

30

0.0775

-1.422

1,369,215

25,359

502,333

4,409,626

1,499,184

2,296,823

1,223,287

1.014

31

0.0800

-1.405

1,470,688

25,866

32

0.0825

-1.388

1.026

33

0.0850

-1.372

1.017

34

0.0875

-1.356

1.129

35

0.0900

-1.341

1.005

36

0.0925

-1.326

1.058

37

0.0950

-1.311

0.998

38

0.0975

-1.296

0.999

39

0.1000

-1.282

1.018

40

0.1025

-1.267

0.964

41

0.1050

-1.254

1.114

42

0.1075

-1.240

1.047

43

0.1100

-1.227

1.103

44

0.1125

-1.213

0.952

45

0.1150

-1.200

0.803

46

0.1175

-1.188

0.875

47

0.1200

-1.175

1.028

48

0.1225

-1.163

1.064

49

0.1250

-1.150

1.026

50

0.1275

-1.138

1.081

51

0.1300

-1.126

0.992

52

0.1325

-1.115

0.990

53

0.1350

-1.103

0.838

54

0.1375

-1.092

1.039

55

0.1400

-1.080

1.014

1.080

56

0.1425

-1.069

0.872

57

0.1450

-1.058

0.915

58

0.1475

-1.047

0.991

59

0.1500

-1.036

0.929

60

0.1525

-1.026

1.050

0.1550

-1.015

1.119

0.1575

-1.005

0.933

0.1600

-0.994

0.907

0.1625

-0.984

0.872

0.1650

-0.974

1.142

0.1675

-0.964

0.928

0.1700

-0.954

1.018

0.1725

-0.944

0.703

0.1750

-0.935

1.090

0.1775

-0.925

0.920

0.1800

-0.915

0.860

0.1825

-0.906

0.973

0.1850

-0.896

1.057

0.1875

-0.887

0.884

0.1900

-0.878

0.800

0.1925

-0.869

0.780

0.1950

-0.860

0.998

0.1975

-0.851

1.382

0.2000

-0.842

1.387

0.2025

-0.833

0.965

0.2050

-0.824

0.865

0.2075

-0.815

0.958

0.2100

-0.806

1.057

0.2125

-0.798

1.009

0.2150

-0.789

0.823

0.2175

-0.781

1.035

0.2200

-0.772

1.426

0.2225

-0.764

1.168

0.2250

-0.755

1.134

0.2275

-0.747

0.914

0.2300

-0.739

1.121

0.2325

-0.731

0.888

0.2350

-0.722

0.915

0.2375

-0.714

1.113

0.2400

-0.706

1.025

0.2425

-0.698

1.107

0.2450

-0.690

0.968

0.2475

-0.682

1.000

0.2500

-0.674

0.975

0.2525

-0.667

0.926

0.2550

-0.659

1.023

0.2575

-0.651

0.887

0.2600

-0.643

1.061

0.2625

-0.636

0.997

0.2650

-0.628

0.971

0.2675

-0.620

1.094

0.2700

-0.613

0.999

0.2725

-0.605

0.959

0.2750

-0.598

0.966

0.2775

-0.590

0.971

0.2800

-0.583

1.098

0.2825

-0.575

1.041

0.2850

-0.568

1.070

0.2875

-0.561

1.085

0.2900

-0.553

1.028

0.2925

-0.546

1.026

0.2950

-0.539

1.078

0.2975

-0.532

1.047

0.3000

-0.524

1.039

0.3025

-0.517

1.067

0.3050

-0.510

1.022

0.3075

-0.503

1.027

0.3100

-0.496

0.925

0.3125

-0.489

1.055

0.3150

-0.482

1.033

0.3175

-0.475

1.070

0.3200

-0.468

1.015

0.3225

-0.461

1.003

0.3250

-0.454

1.078

0.3275

-0.447

1.013

0.3300

-0.440

0.997

0.3325

-0.433

1.039

0.3350

-0.426

1.019

0.3375

-0.419

0.992

0.3400

-0.412

0.919

0.3425

-0.406

0.998

0.3450

-0.399

0.950

0.3475

-0.392

1.105

0.3500

-0.385

0.952

0.3525

-0.379

0.860

0.3550

-0.372

0.902

0.3575

-0.365

0.913

0.3600

-0.358

0.954

0.3625

-0.352

1.015

0.3650

-0.345

1.067

0.3675

-0.338

0.751

0.3700

-0.332

1.145

0.3725

-0.325

0.967

0.3750

-0.319

1.250

0.3775

-0.312

1.074

0.3800

-0.305

0.977

0.3825

-0.299

1.017

0.3850

-0.292

1.078

0.3875

-0.286

0.973

0.3900

-0.279

1.040

0.3925

-0.273

0.933

0.3950

-0.266

1.039

0.3975

-0.260

0.866

0.4000

-0.253

0.997

0.4025

-0.247

1.073

0.4050

-0.240

0.939

0.4075

-0.234

1.111

0.4100

-0.228

0.935

0.4125

-0.221

1.167

0.4150

-0.215

0.988

0.4175

-0.208

0.960

0.4200

-0.202

1.027

0.4225

-0.196

0.966

0.4250

-0.189

1.013

0.4275

-0.183

1.012

0.4300

-0.176

0.998

0.4325

-0.170

0.771

0.4350

-0.164

1.081

0.4375

-0.157

1.034

0.4400

-0.151

1.035

0.4425

-0.145

1.012

0.4450

-0.138

1.042

0.4475

-0.132

0.968

0.4500

-0.126

1.001

0.4525

-0.119

0.954

0.4550

-0.113

0.994

0.4575

-0.107

1.007

0.4600

-0.100

0.939

0.4625

-0.094

1.018

0.4650

-0.088

1.058

0.4675

-0.082

1.058

0.4700

-0.075

1.001

0.4725

-0.069

0.993

0.4750

-0.063

0.934

0.4775

-0.056

0.972

0.4800

-0.050

0.959

0.4825

-0.044

1.016

0.4850

-0.038

0.984

0.4875

-0.031

0.935

0.4900

-0.025

0.960

0.4925

-0.019

1.080

0.4950

-0.013

1.022

0.4975

-0.006

1.034

0.5000

0.000

1.016

0.5025

0.006

1.029

0.5050

0.013

1.068

0.5075

0.019

0.998

0.5100

0.025

1.055

0.5125

0.031

1.074

0.5150

0.038

1.058

0.5175

0.044

1.055

0.5200

0.050

1.004

0.5225

0.056

1.055

0.5250

0.063

1.022

0.5275

0.069

0.947

0.5300

0.075

1.017

0.5325

0.082

1.026

0.5350

0.088

0.989

0.5375

0.094

0.935

0.5400

0.100

1.062

0.5425

0.107

1.017

0.5450

0.113

1.004

0.5475

0.119

1.020

0.5500

0.126

0.990

0.5525

0.132

1.051

0.5550

0.138

1.054

0.5575

0.145

0.981

0.5600

0.151

1.016

0.5625

0.157

0.999

0.5650

0.164

1.002

0.5675

0.170

1.013

0.5700

0.176

1.037

0.5725

0.183

1.016

0.5750

0.189

1.068

0.5775

0.196

0.956

0.5800

0.202

1.090

0.5825

0.208

1.020

0.5850

0.215

0.999

0.5875

0.221

0.982

0.5900

0.228

1.064

0.5925

0.234

1.044

0.5950

0.240

1.032

0.5975

0.247

1.040

0.6000

0.253

1.012

0.6025

0.260

1.071

0.6050

0.266

0.936

0.6075

0.273

1.048

0.6100

0.279

1.039

0.6125

0.286

1.029

0.6150

0.292

0.963

0.6175

0.299

0.976

0.6200

0.305

0.933

0.6225

0.312

0.900

0.6250

0.319

0.994

0.6275

0.325

0.997

0.6300

0.332

1.046

0.6325

0.338

1.026

0.6350

0.345

0.992

0.6375

0.352

0.985

0.6400

0.358

0.964

0.6425

0.365

1.001

0.6450

0.372

1.055

0.6475

0.379

1.038

0.6500

0.385

0.980

0.6525

0.392

0.989

0.6550

0.399

1.024

0.6575

0.406

0.983

0.6600

0.412

1.023

0.6625

0.419

0.962

0.6650

0.426

0.961

0.6675

0.433

1.079

0.6700

0.440

1.029

0.6725

0.447

1.088

0.6750

0.454

1.005

0.6775

0.461

0.949

0.6800

0.468

1.016

0.6825

0.475

0.972

0.6850

0.482

1.071

0.6875

0.489

0.904

0.6900

0.496

1.035

0.6925

0.503

1.004

0.6950

0.510

0.970

0.6975

0.517

1.033

0.7000

0.524

0.982

0.7025

0.532

0.974

0.7050

0.539

1.001

0.7075

0.546

1.065

0.7100

0.553

1.022

0.7125

0.561

1.026

0.7150

0.568

1.034

0.7175

0.575

1.018

0.7200

0.583

1.049

0.7225

0.590

1.020

0.7250

0.598

1.020

0.7275

0.605

1.007

0.7300

0.613

1.049

0.7325

0.620

1.051

0.7350

0.628

0.945

0.7375

0.636

1.012

0.7400

0.643

1.044

0.7425

0.651

1.059

0.7450

0.659

1.009

0.7475

0.667

1.017

0.7500

0.674

1.051

0.7525

0.682

1.064

0.7550

0.690

1.016

0.7575

0.698

0.984

0.7600

0.706

1.051

0.7625

0.714

0.970

0.7650

0.722

0.977

0.7675

0.731

1.071

0.7700

0.739

1.048

0.7725

0.747

1.001

0.7750

0.755

0.990

0.7775

0.764

1.010

0.7800

0.772

1.042

0.7825

0.781

1.018

0.7850

0.789

0.972

0.7875

0.798

1.050

0.7900

0.806

0.960

0.7925

0.815

1.034

0.7950

0.824

1.049

0.7975

0.833

1.020

0.8000

0.842

0.993

0.8025

0.851

0.982

0.8050

0.860

1.002

0.8075

0.869

1.057

0.8100

0.878

1.038

0.8125

0.887

0.995

0.8150

0.896

0.989

0.8175

0.906

0.979

0.8200

0.915

0.976

0.8225

0.925

1.008

0.8250

0.935

0.987

0.8275

0.944

1.027

0.8300

0.954

0.950

0.8325

0.964

1.003

0.8350

0.974

1.054

0.8375

0.984

1.020

0.8400

0.994

1.005

0.8425

1.005

1.054

0.8450

1.015

1.011

0.8475

1.026

1.033

0.8500

1.036

1.052

0.8525

1.047

1.042

0.8550

1.058

1.003

0.8575

1.069

1.059

0.8600

1.080

0.973

0.8625

1.092

1.085

0.8650

1.103

0.983

0.8675

1.115

1.091

0.8700

1.126

1.053

0.8725

1.138

1.020

0.8750

1.150

1.010

0.8775

1.163

0.997

0.8800

1.175

1.040

0.8825

1.188

1.006

0.8850

1.200

1.084

0.8875

1.213

1.062

0.8900

1.227

0.998

0.8925

1.240

1.013

0.8950

1.254

0.972

0.8975

1.267

1.083

0.9000

1.282

1.002

0.9025

1.296

0.965

0.9050

1.311

1.041

0.9075

1.326

1.071

0.9100

1.341

1.000

0.9125

1.356

0.941

0.9150

1.372

1.041

0.9175

1.388

1.053

0.9200

1.405

0.967

0.9225

1.422

0.956

0.9250

1.440

1.007

0.9275

1.457

0.995

0.9300

1.476

1.037

0.9325

1.495

0.960

0.9350

1.514

0.974

0.9375

1.534

1.022

0.9400

1.555

1.039

0.9425

1.576

1.044

0.9450

1.598

1.000

0.9475

1.621

1.013

0.9500

1.645

0.950

0.9525

1.670

0.940

0.9550

1.695

0.970

0.9575

1.722

1.023

0.9600

1.751

0.961

0.9625

1.780

1.045

0.9650

1.812

0.986

0.9675

1.845

1.033

0.9700

1.881

1.034

0.9725

1.919

1.021

0.9750

1.960

1.028

0.9775

2.005

1.045

0.9800

2.054

1.018

0.9825

2.108

1.050

0.9850

2.170

1.027

0.9875

2.241

1.028

0.9900

2.326

1.054

0.9925

2.432

1.005

0.9950

2.576

1.005

0.9975

2.807

1.002
1.040
1.024
0.998
1.036
0.990
0.956
1.013
1.019
1.029
0.930
1.015

0.988
0.984
1.033
1.021
0.977
1.032
0.941
0.999
1.047
1.048
1.065
1.032
1.027
1.005
1.024
0.973
1.034
1.024
0.982
1.030
1.045
1.005
0.963
1.021
0.995
0.939
0.919
0.920
1.065
1.021
0.954
1.006
1.109
1.015
1.051
0.976
1.037
1.050
1.019
0.981
0.998
1.054
0.990
1.034
0.995
1.026
1.028
1.015
1.017
1.008
1.016
1.018
1.020
0.988
1.030
1.010
1.001
1.006
1.035

1.003
0.987
1.036
0.997
0.953
1.015
1.027
1.033
1.029
0.997
1.011
1.006
0.987
0.980
1.022
0.951
0.985
0.988
0.928
0.995
1.049
1.010
1.000
1.080
1.007
1.041
1.044
0.952
1.019
1.047
0.993
1.034
0.972
1.007
1.028
0.958
0.974
1.011
1.083
1.016
1.011
0.983
1.016
1.040
1.009
1.053
0.960
0.993
0.957
1.036
1.023
1.003
0.946
0.941
1.045
0.976
1.046
0.970
0.982

0.926
1.059
1.003
0.911
0.945
0.952
1.075
1.051
1.035
0.990
1.054
1.058
1.042
1.014
1.038
1.038
0.963
1.002
0.960
1.041
0.994
0.960
1.003
1.088
1.019
1.030
1.007
1.006
1.022
0.980
1.004
1.039
0.996
1.011
1.051
1.013
0.984
0.967
1.000
0.961
0.986
0.995
1.039
0.968
1.042
1.000
0.892
1.018
0.992
1.002
0.978
0.963
0.973
0.987
0.924
0.917
0.883
1.166
0.955

0.982
1.125
1.067
1.024
1.049
1.051
1.046
0.934
0.986
0.967
1.064
1.031
0.990
1.120
0.994
1.033
0.990
0.993
1.043
0.993
1.001
1.025
0.979
0.999
1.054
0.951
0.985
0.988
1.001
0.985
1.048
0.985
0.987
1.000
0.959
1.037
1.005
0.940
0.984
1.028
1.087
1.014
0.985
1.056
1.034
0.995
0.911
1.026
1.017
1.042
0.972
1.058
1.004
0.983
1.041
1.011
1.061
1.003
0.934

1.051
1.019
1.061
1.003
0.901
1.043
1.056
1.030
1.068
1.013
1.028
1.019
1.110
0.969
0.956
1.021
1.038
0.979
1.006
0.992
1.001
0.945
0.950
1.053
1.044
0.974
0.984
0.949
0.994
1.041
0.971
0.983
0.979
1.127
1.011
1.113
1.044
1.017
1.035
1.026
1.037
1.076
0.995
1.038
0.969
1.017
1.014
0.987
1.023
0.994
0.994
0.967
1.017
1.007
0.947
1.022
0.986
1.113
1.000

1.003
0.990
1.025
1.077
1.014
1.002
0.997
1.062
1.016
0.997
0.994
0.968
1.045
1.072
1.047
1.004
1.076
1.055
0.988
1.055
1.017
0.943
1.075
0.918
1.056
1.026
0.974
1.134
1.041
1.027
0.991
1.010
1.050
1.050
1.039
0.978
0.785
0.918
1.074
1.043
1.047
0.970
1.011
1.008
1.046
0.996
0.967
1.042
1.027
0.986
1.018
1.072
0.975
1.024
1.052
1.040
0.995
1.090
1.019

0.996
0.977
1.021
1.024
0.933
1.013
1.026
0.975
1.098
0.993
0.997
0.910
0.951
0.996
1.064
1.027
1.044
1.072
1.024
1.003
1.043
0.954
1.047
1.024
0.984
1.013
0.960
1.114
0.981
1.013
0.980
1.029
1.005
0.986
1.040
0.980
1.012
1.004
1.034
1.013
1.007
1.014
1.022
0.976
1.027
1.003
0.995
1.038
0.993
1.020
0.991
1.012
1.034
0.973
0.957
1.013
1.016
0.975
1.033

1.041
0.976
1.023
0.963
1.015
1.026
1.039
1.030
1.029
1.040
1.024
1.033
1.003
1.042
0.997
1.044
1.019
1.034
1.010
1.010
1.015
1.026
1.004
0.956
1.021
1.056
1.027
1.076
0.980
1.062
1.008
0.958
1.060
1.061
1.045
1.079
0.944
1.055
0.967
1.046
1.017
1.011
1.072
1.051
1.010
0.983
1.041
0.989
0.855
1.064
1.081
1.061
1.058
1.042
0.969
1.040
1.039
0.976
1.056

0.969
0.995
0.973
1.063
1.020
1.059
0.950
0.981
1.098
0.970
0.980
1.025
0.984
1.062
0.947
0.996
0.921
1.005
1.036
0.909
0.937
1.078
1.007

S&P data
905

Average of 1000 Portfolio simulations


14,000

1.0

29,334

Cumulative
Normal
Distribution

46,163
63,069
82,173

0.9
0.8
0.7

103,721

0.6

124,225

0.5

150,465

0.4

175,976

0.3

203,929

0.2

236,718

0.1

268,590
305,086
345,768
394,786
441,150
482,595
529,714
574,648
646,124
714,046
776,366
855,378
929,972
1,005,318
1,080,232
1,206,018
1,304,793
1,442,655
1,564,033
1,649,561

Table-Lookup Values:
Mean = 0, SD = 1

0.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0