Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report
Monday| April 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Special Margin in Soyabean Contract
Trading and Clearing members are hereby informed that in terms of Byelaws, Rules and Regulations of the Exchange, Special Margin (in Cash) of 10% on the Long side will be imposed in Soyabean May 2013, June 2013 & July 2013 expiry contracts with effect from beginning of day Tuesday, April 30, 2013. (Source: NCDEX)

Market Highlights (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on April 26, 2013
WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19287 5871 54.38 93 1454

-0.62 -0.76 0.51 -0.68 -0.56

1.42 1.53 0.65 5.67 4.18

3.11 4.07 -0.18 -3.47 -8.91

12.59 13.15 3.76 -11.05 -12.41

Special Margin in Yellow Soybean Meal Contract
Trading and Clearing members are hereby informed that in terms of Byelaws, Rules and Regulations of the Exchange, Special Margin (in Cash) of 10% on the Long side will be imposed in Yellow Soybean Meal May 2013, June 2013 & July 2013 expiry contracts with effect from beginning of day Tuesday, April 30, 2013. (Source: NCDEX)

.Source: Reuters

U.S. corn jumps over 2 pct to 1-wk high on weather forecast
Chicago corn futures rose more than 2% to one-week highs on Monday on forecasts for further unfavorable weather across U.S. Plains, which would further delay plantings. Wheat rose, drawing support from corn, while soybeans also edged higher for the third session, touching a 10-day peak. Chicago Board of Trade July corn futures, the most actively traded contract, had gained 1.61% to $6.29-3/4 a bushel by 0051 GMT, having hit a session peak of $6.32-1/2 a bushel, the highest since April 22. Corn fell 1.4% in the previous session when the grain came under pressure from profit-taking. "It is supposed to get cold later this week and that is going to lead to ongoing delays with plantings," said Luke Matthews, commodities strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. The U.S. National Weather Service said a strong showery cold front will hit U.S. Plains on Tuesday. Analysts said further rains will delay plantings, adding to concerns over potential yield losses. (Source: Reuters)

Centre’s wheat procurement up by 17.11 MT so far
With the arrivals of wheat picking up in key growing states of Punjab and Haryana, the Centre’s grain purchase has risen by 12.5% to 17.11 mt so far in 2013-14 marketing season that started this month. The wheat procurement stood at 15.21 mt in the same period corresponding year. Procurement of wheat, a major rabi crop, begins from April and continues till June. A sharp rise in arrival of the grain has increased the government’s procurement in Punjab and Madhya Pradesh, while it is lagging in Haryana as on April 26. Wheat arrival rose to 18.47 MT so far, as against 16.34 MT in the year-ago period. Wheat is being purchased at the support price of Rs 1,350 per quintal. Wheat purchase in Punjab has increased to 7.5 MT so far, as against 5.4 MT in the year-ago period, according to data by state-run Food Corporation of India (FCI), the nodal agency for procurement and distribution of foodgrains. In Madhya Pradesh, procurement has increased to 4.2 MT from 3.5 MT in the review period. However, the procurement of wheat in Haryana lagged behind at 4.7 MT as on April 26 due to poor arrival. The wheat buy in the state stood at 5.4 MT in the same period last year. (Source: Business Line)

Brazil coffee beans sales slow on possible gov't intervention
Sales of Brazilian coffee beans slowed on Friday amid expectations the government will raise the minimum coffee price at a monetary policy meeting next Monday, a move which could signal imminent state intervention to prop up prices. The "minimum price" is a misnomer since no such mandatory level exists for Brazilian coffee. Instead, it serves as a benchmark price which the government uses on rare occasions when it steps into the market to buy beans or boost credit lines. "It's not that there is no business at all but today is quiet," said trader Sergio Carvalhaes from the family-run Carvalhaes brokerage in the city of Santos, where Brazil's largest port is situated. (Source: Reuters)

Agri-input makers see revival in demand on normal rain forecast
The prediction of a normal monsoon has raised the hopes for agri-input companies, especially fertiliser and pesticide makers, who are expecting a rebound in demand. “The monsoon forecast has been good and we believe there will be a pick-up in demand,” said Kapil Mehan, MD of Coromandel International Ltd, which reported an 8% drop in sales for fiscal 2013 over last year. Fertiliser makers such as IFFCO and Coromandel had faced a double-whammy last year as prices of the nonurea, potassic and phosphatic nutrients had shot up on spiralling global prices and poor offtake by farmers due to erratic monsoon. (Source Business
Line)

Egypt may be 65-70 pct self-sufficient in wheat this year -PM
Egypt may reach 65 to 70% self-sufficiency in wheat production this year because of an expected boost in the local harvest, the prime minister said on Saturday. Egypt usually imports around 10 mt of wheat a year but this year the state says it will buy only around 4 to 5 mt from abroad, hoping to get the rest from local production. More than two years of political turmoil since a popular uprising ousted President Hosni Mubarak have frightened away tourists and foreign investors, draining the foreign currency reserves used to pay for imports. Prime Minister Hisham Kandil said there were indications this year's crop could reach 9.5 mt, echoing predictions by other officials. "We may reach self-sufficiency this year of 65 to 70%," he told reporters in the canal city of Suez. The government would buy about 4.5 mt locally at a price of 400 Egyptian pounds ($58) per ardeb (150 kg), Kandil added. (Source: Reuters)

Good monsoon forecast improves cotton outlook
THE India Meteorological Depa¬rtment (IMD) has just come out with its monsoon forecast, saying the crucial southwest monsoon rains for the year 2013 would be normal at 98 per cent of the long period average (LPA). According to Cotton Advisory Board (CAB), production of cotton in India is expected to rise to 340 lakh bales (lb) for this cotton year (October to September) against 330 lb estimated by CAB in January. This production estimate is against a demand of about 28 million bales. The rise in production outlook is largely due to better crop prospects in the southern states, including Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Production in the northern states, including Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, is estimated at 60 lb, while in central zone, comprising Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, it’s pegged at at 179 lb. In the southern region, the output is seen higher at 95 lb, says Commodity Online. But there remains the issue of imports, expected to go up to 25 lb in January against the estimate of 20 lb, as some mills in southern states find it cheaper to bring in consignments from Africa and Australia. Imports were at 12 lb last year. (Source: Financial Chronicle)

U.S. drought story not drowned out by rain
Late winter storms and a cold, wet spring in the United States have delayed spring planting and eased worries about a repeat of last year’s epic drought, but experts caution that many of last year’s driest areas are still very dry. Nebraska and the southern Plains into Texas, which were ground zero for some of the worst-hit crop areas last year in the world’s largest food exporting nation, remain mostly in extreme to exceptional drought. Corn, wheat, and soybeans as well as cattle, poultry and hogs suffered in 2012 when irrigation water for crops dried up. (Source: Reuters)

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Commodities Daily Report
Monday| April 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures continued to decline last week on account of higher arrivals of the new crop, which have mounted pressure on the prices. Demand from stockists also remained dull. However, reports of lower yield in MP due to unseasonal rains supported prices at lower levels. The spot as well as the Futures settled 3.14% and 3.48% lower w-o-w. Chana prices have recovered significantly in the past couple of weeks as stockists have started building inventories to meet the demand for the entire season. Concerns over the yield in Madhya Pradesh, the largest chana producing state, due to unfavorable weather conditions was also supporting an upside in the prices. However, higher supplies of the new crop from the major producing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra is seen capping sharp gains in the physical markets.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 3462 3470 Prev day -0.43 -1.36

as on April 27, 2013 % change WoW MoM -3.14 4.90 -3.48 3.37 YoY -6.26 -8.06

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX May contract

Demand supply scenario
Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. The Centre has hiked the MSP by 14 per cent to Rs 3,200 a quintal for chana and as part of its strategy to encourage farmers to grow more pulses to reduce import dependence. Chana sowing in the current season is 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. Acreage is up in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, MP and AP at 15.7 lakh ha, 12.53 lakh ha, 32.99 lakh ha and 7.33 lakh ha respectively. According to second advance Estimates released on 8 Feb 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down 3.3% compared to previous year. The target for 2012-13 pulses crop output was set at 18.24 million tonne during the year. However, drought conditions have hampered kharif pulses output, which has been only partially offset by Rabi pulses output, especially chana. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at 5.48 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates on the back of higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13. In its first advance estimates chana output was pegged at 7.9 mn tn. However, erratic weather in M.P. may lower the yield. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch).
th

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana May Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Apr 29, 2013 Resistance 3510-3555

3420-3445

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of February declined to 0.46 lakh metric tonnes compared to 2.31 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 2012–13 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Outlook
Chana is expected to trade with a negative bias today as increasing arrivals of the new crop may pressurize prices. However, any improvement in demand from stockists may restrict a major downside. Overall output in the current season is comparatively higher and thus no major upside is expected over a medium term.

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Commodities Daily Report
Monday| April 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar prices continued to remain under downside pressure last week as higher supplies have been seen offsetting the summer demand. Sugar prices in the domestic markets are seen consolidating at lower levels The May contract hit a fresh contract low of Rs. 2910. The spot as well as the futures settled 0.61% and 0.61% lower w-o-w. The Government has cleared the partial decontrol of sugar. According to this, the government will now have to buy sugar from the mills at open market prices. Also the release mechanism will be done away with, after September 2013. States will decide on the FRP of cane. Indian sugar mills produced 23 million tonnes of the sweetener between Oct. 1 and March 31, about 2 percent less than a year earlier. The Central Government has decided to make available quantity of 104 lakh tons of sugar, as non-levy quota for open market sale, for the 6 months of April, 2013 to September, 2013.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3021

as on April 27, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.10 -0.61 MoM -0.60 YoY 3.01

Rs/qtl

2921

0.21

-0.61

0.21

2.20

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMay'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE May '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 500.5 385.78

as on April 26, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.38 -0.29 -1.63 -3.39 MoM -2.59 -2.36 YoY -13.23 -18.57

Domestic Production and Exports
India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said last week. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30.8 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22. 5 mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have also declined significantly.

.Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX May contract

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said that the sugar output in 2013-14 may fall to around 24 mn tn against current year’s output of 24.5 mn tn. A severe drought in top sugar producing Maharashtra state has been affecting new plantation and is likely to affect on sugar production in the year starting from Oct. 1, 2013.

Global Sugar Updates
Sugar prices in the international markets traded on a flat note yesterday. Liffe sugar settled 0.38% higher while ICE Raw Sugar futures settled 0.29% lower on Friday. Surplus supply situation for the third consecutive year has led to a sharp downside in the prices. Improvement in the harvest in the South American region, especially Brazil, the world’s top producer has also pressurized the prices. The prices are trading around their 3 year lows. Heavy rain in the cane belt of top world sugar producer Brazil has slowed early progress of an expected record cane harvest. Brazil's sugar production will jump to a record level in the 2013/14 season just now starting, with a surge in cane output from an expanded planted area, favorable weather and efforts to renew old and less productive cane plants. Expectations of abundant supplies from the 2013-14 harvest in the other leading producers, such as Thailand, Mexico and the United States have kept prices under pressure. Sugar prices are trading around 2½ year lows.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar May NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Apr 29, 2013 Resistance 2935-2950

2895-2910

Outlook
Sugar is expected to trade with a negative bias in the intraday. Prices may consolidate at lower levels over the next few days. Supplies will continue to remain high as millers will release stocks to clear cane arrears. This will offset summer season demand and recovery in the international markets.

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Commodities Daily Report
Monday| April 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean traded on a bullish note last week on account of
poor supplies in the domestic markets. However, IMD’s prediction of a normal monsoon led to a correction from higher levels towards the end of the week. An increase in the margin on the long side also pressurized prices towards the end of the week. The spot as well as the Futures settled 2.45% and 4.4% higher w-o-w. Special Margin (in Cash) of 10% on the Long side will be imposed in Soyabean May 2013, June 2013 & July 2013 expiry contracts with effect from beginning of day Tuesday, April 30, 2013. India’s soy meal exports in April are likely to fall to 200,000 tonnes, down 36 percent from a year ago, unless buying from Iran improves. Exports of Soybean meal during March, 2013 was 3,20,265 tonnes as compared to 4,61,892 tonnes in March, 2012 lower by 30.66% y-o-y.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 4096 3988 737.6 720.5 Prev day -1.87 -3.24 0.00 -0.08

as on April 27, 2013

WoW 2.45 4.40 1.54 2.10

MoM 9.75 6.85 6.75 3.83

YoY 17.80 12.34 -3.81 -7.58

Source: Reuters

International Markets
Soybean gained 0.51% on Friday on account of tight supplies of the old crop. Farmers are also holding back their stocks. Large South American crop coupled with forecasts for US weather to improve next week as well as Chinese soy imports data pressurized prices this week. Sentiments remain weak on account of smooth supplies from Brazil coupled with demand fears amid bird flu in China. Surge in soybean imports by China, the biggest buyer, may decline this year as feed consumption drops following a bird-flu outbreak. Data released by National Oilseed Processors Association showed the U.S. soybean crush rose marginally to 137.08 million bushels in March, in line with forecasts for a slight gain from 136.3 million bushels in February. Soy oil stocks edged lower to 2.765 billion lbs, versus 2.79 billion lbs in February. Brazil's government lowered its forecast for the 2012/13 soybean crop from 82.1mn tn to 81.9 mn tn.
International Prices Soybean- CBOTMay'13 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTMay'13 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1431 49.66

as on April 26, 2013 Prev day 0.51 -0.22 WoW 0.18 1.02 MoM -1.17 -2.28 YoY -3.41 -10.31

Source: Reuters

Crude Palm Oil

as on April 27, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.39 0.24 0.79 1.02

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia – Apr '13 Contract CPO-MCX- Apr '13 Futures

Last 2301 466

MoM -4.52 1.37

YoY -34.44 -25.03

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil as well as MCX CPO settled 2.1% and
1.02% higher on account of positive domestic edible oil markets. Indian government increased the base import price on crude soybean oil by US $1 per tons to US $1094. Besides, base import price on crude palm oil sets at US $ 827 and reduced base import price on palmolein crude as well as refined to US $ 864 per tons and US $867 per tons. Imports of all vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, fell 7.5 per cent to 896,714 tn in March, pulled down by the drop in palm oil imports. Palm oil imports dropped 12% to 708,262 tn in March. Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm oil producer, will set its crude palm oil export tax for May at 4.5 percent, unchanged from April. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products from April 1 to 25 increased 5.2% to 1,123,129 tonnes from 1,067,140 tonnes shipped during March 1 to 25.

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 3500 3490 Prev day 0.00 -0.88 WoW -0.82 -0.14

as on April 27, 2013 MoM 2.43 0.93
Source: Reuters

YoY -11.39 -12.71

Technical Chart –Soybean

NCDEX May contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard Futures traded on a mixed note
with a negative bias last week on account of higher arrivals and settled 0.14% lower w-o-w. Sowing of Mustard seed is up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Outlook
Soybean prices may trade with mixed sentiments today. Higher margins coupled with forecast of a normal monsoon may pressurize prices at higher levels. Weak meal export demand may also pressurize prices. However, poor supplies in the domestic markets may support prices. Soy oil and CPO may also trade higher tracking positive edible oil markets. However, comfortable stock levels may cap sharp upside.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil May NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX May Futures RM Seed NCDEX May Futures CPO MCX Apr Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Apr 29, 2013 Support 715-718 3875-3930 3450-3470 462-464 Resistance 723-726 4030-4085 3520-3550 469-472

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Commodities Daily Report
Monday| April 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities h
Black Pepper
Pepper Futures traded on a mixed note last week and settled 0.44% lower on a weekly basis. Higher supplies of the Karnataka crop coupled with weak exports demand have pressurised prices. However, lower supplies as well as good demand for the Kerala crop supported prices at lower levels. Interstate traders, are actively buying the Kerala crop. Karnataka crop is trading at lower levels due inferior quality. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is weak due to price parity. Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about 8,000 tonnes. According to a circular issued by NCDEX on 09/02/2013, launch of June 2013 expiry contract in Pepper which is scheduled on February 11, 2013, has been postponed till further notice. The revised launch date will be announced in due course. Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $6,800/tn (C&F, New York). Vietnam’s Asta is quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn and Brazil Asta is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 35833 35345 % Change Prev day -0.08 0.11

as on April 27, 2013 WoW -0.76 -0.44 MoM -1.67 -0.30 YoY -6.00 -4.99

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Black Pepper

NCDEX May contract

Exports and Imports
India’s Apr-Jan 2012-13 pepper exports were reported at 11,550 tn, down 48% (Source: Factiva) while imports reported at 15,000 tonnes making India a net importer. (Source: Agriwatch) According to the latest IPC reports, Vietnam exported around 39,000 st tonnes of pepper in the 1 quarter of 2013. Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 9% in 2012 period to 62,458 tn as compared to 68,489 tn in 2011. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov 2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012, lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX May Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Apr 29, 2013 Support 34800-35050 Resistance 35500-35700

Production and Arrivals
The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 46 tonnes while off takes were reported at 45 tonnes on Friday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at 316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.05 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in 2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in 2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Harvesting of pepper in some regions in Kerala is already complete.

Outlook
Pepper Futures may trade on a mixed note today. Higher arrivals of the Karnataka crop coupled with weak overseas demand may pressurize prices from higher levels. However, good demand for the Kerala pepper coupled with low supplies may support prices at lower levels. Lack of stocks for delivery due to lock up of pepper in the NCDEX accredited warehouses may also support prices. No new contracts on the futures markets may keep traders away.

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Commodities Daily Report
Monday| April 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera May futures declined last week on account of higher supplies of the new crop in the domestic markets. Domestic as well as overseas demand was reported to be low. The spot as well as the futures settled 1.02% and 2.23% lower last week. Higher exports data coupled with fresh export enquiries as well as a pickup in the domestic demand had supported an upside in the prices earlier this month. Arrivals of the new crop are averaging around 35,000 bags/ day. New crop from Rajasthan has also entered the markets. Higher sowing as well as conducive weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region has increased output expectations. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3.352 lakh ha in 2013 compared with 3.719 lakh ha last year. According to the Rajasthan State Budget 201314, it has exempted jeera from VAT. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,400-2,425 tn (FOB Mumbai) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 8-9 lakh bags.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera Spot- NCDEX (Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 13363 12800 Prev day -0.24 -1.18

as on April 27, 2013 % Change WoW -1.02 -2.23 MoM 0.15 -1.67 YoY 4.78 4.26

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Jeera

NCDEX May contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports
Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 22,000 lakh bags on Friday. Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 38-40 lakh bags (55 kgs each), same as last year. Exports of Jeera between Apr 2012- Jan 2013 stood at 64,400 tn, an increase of up 86%. (Source: Factiva)
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day 0.00 -1.28

as on April 27, 2013 % Change

Outlook
Jeera Futures may trade with a negative bias today. Higher arrivals of the new crop may pressurize prices. However, improvement in overseas as well as domestic demand may support prices at lower levels. Overall trend remain positive for the Jeera prices as they are likely to stay firm as Syria & Turkey have stopped shipments.
Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures

Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 6598 6334

WoW -2.67 -3.62

MoM 2.87 -3.21

YoY 99.37 78.22

Turmeric
Turmeric futures traded with a negative bias last week on account of higher arrivals of the new crop. However, good domestic as well as overseas demand coupled with lower output supported prices at lower levels. Unseasonal rains in Andhra Pradesh have damaged about 9240 tonnes of turmeric. The spot as well as the Futures settled 2.67% and 3.62% lower w-o-w.

Technical Chart – Turmeric

NCDEX May contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports
Arrivals in Erode mandi stood at 5,000 bags while Nizamabad remained closed on Friday. Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. There are reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags. Production in Nizamabad is expected around 12 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. It is estimated that next year’s carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011. Outlook Turmeric is expected to trade with a negative bias today. Weak exports data coupled with higher supplies of the fresh crop and huge carryover stocks may pressurize prices at higher levels. However, export demand coupled with demand from stockists may support prices at lower levels. Crop damage and output concerns may also support prices at lower levels.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX May Futures Turmeric NCDEX May Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for Apr 29, 2013
Support 12600-12700 6200-6270 Resistance 12950-13090 6430-6540

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Commodities Daily Report
Monday| April 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton recovered last week on account of short coverings and settled 2.64% and 2.28% higher w-o-w. Prices have declined due to weak demand as well as weak international prices while lower supplies in the domestic markets supported prices at lower levels. However, the overall sentiments remain weak as mills are avoiding buying as they expected CCI to offload stocks. Weak global market sentiments have also added downside pressure. The state-run Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has said that it would offload stocks in the open market to augment supplies. Cotton Corp of India has also sought permission to export 1 mn bales. Lower supplies in the domestic markets and rising cotton prices have caused concerns for textile industry, which is demanding government to direct CCI and NAFED to offload the cotton stock to domestic mills. India's imports of cotton this year could reach 1.5 mn bales, missing earlier estimates of more than 2 mn as the govt may to start selling its stockpiles. Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October 2012 until February 10, 2013 were down at 183.4 lakh bales, down from 189.27 lakh bales a year earlier.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 854 17940

as on April 27, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.29 2.64 0.90 2.28 MoM YoY -9.29 -16.80 2.28 5.04

NCDEX Kapas Apr Futures MCX Cotton Mar Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit USc/Lbs Last 82.25 90.8

as on April 26, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 1.13 -1.47 0.22 -1.04 MoM -6.58 -2.52 YoY -8.92 -8.84

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption
The Cotton Association of India CAI has estimated the cotton crop for the season 2012-13 at 35.1 million bales as against 37.3 million bales in 2011- 12. However, higher exports and domestic consumption can be met through revised higher opening stocks of 40 lakh bales and higher imports. After witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 80 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.

Global Cotton Updates
ICE recovered from lower levels on account of short coverings coupled with strong weekly U.S. export figures and settled 1.13% higher on Friday. Prices earlier this week as investors continued to liquidate their long positions and mills held off purchasing into the falling market. According to China Cotton Association, China will continue with its stockpiling policy this year which will boost imports. Exports were higher compared to previous week but lower compared to four week average. According to the USDA report, planting intentions for the 2013-14 season are said to be at a 4 year low. Also, there are expectations of good export demand from China. Reports of India and China releasing stocks from the state reserve led to a decline in the prices. China, the world’s largest consumer, is expected to sell about 3 mn tn of cotton this year from state reserves of around 10 mn tn. USDA has initially forecasted US Cotton acreage for 2013-14 season, at smallest in 20 yrs, however, with recent surge in prices, farmers may decide to plant more cotton. The planting intention data is schedule to be released on 28th march 2013.
Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX April contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
We expect Cotton prices to trade on a mixed note today. Weak global market sentiments coupled with lack of buying by mills in the domestic markets may pressurize prices. However, decline in supplies from farmers due to lower prices may support prices at lower levels. China will continue its stockpiling policy, may also support prices. US cotton planting intentions were reported at a 4 year low.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Futures Cotton MCX April Futures Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Apr 29, 2013 Support 840-850 17700-17820 Resistance 860-870 18020-18100

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