Commodities Evening Update

Friday | April 26, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Day’s overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam – Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update
Friday | April 26, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.5 percent in today’s trading session. German Import Prices declined by 0.1 percent in the last month. US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.07 percent in today’s trade. European equities are trading lower ahead of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. Asian markets ended on a mixed note and US stock futures are trading in the red. German Import Prices declined by 0.1 percent in March as against a rise of 0.3 percent in February. Money Supply increased at slow pace of 2.6 percent in March from rise of 3.1 percent a month ago. Private Loans declined by 0.8 percent in the last month. Spot gold prices declined by 0.26 percent today on the back of rise in rise aversion in the global market sentiments. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned as a result of weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX). The yellow metal touched an intra-day low of $1458.79/oz and hovered around $1463.24/oz today till 4:30pm IST. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee prevented sharp fall in the prices on the MCX. Taking cues from fall in gold prices, weak global market sentiments along with downside in the base metals complex, Spot silver prices declined around 1.64 percent today. Weakness in the DX resrcited sharp fall in the prices. The white emtal touched an intra-day low of $23.87/oz and was trading around $23.93/oz till 4:30pm IST today. In the Indian markets depreciation in the Rupee cushioned sharp fall in the prices on the MCX. The base metals group declined today as a result of weak global market sentiments coupled with mixed LME invesntories. Weakness in DX cushioned sharp fall in the prices. In the Indian markets depreciation in the Rupee prevented sharp fall in the prices on the MCX. Copper, the leader of the base metals pack declined by 1.57 percent on account of increase in LME Copper inventories by 0.2 percent which stood at 619,600 tonnes. Further, weak global market sentiments also exerted downside pressure on the prices. Weakness in the DX cushioned sharp fall in the prices. In the Indian markets depreciation in the Rupee restricted sharp fall in the prices on the MCX. Nymex crude oil prices declined by 0.72 percent taking cues from expectations that rise in crude oil prices were excessive and will fall as technical correction is seen. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX. In the Indian markets depreciation in the Rupee prevented sharp fall in the prices on the MCX. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm – 26 April ’13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5899.75 19376.00 13978.98 1949.92 16620.28

5907.05 19384.95 13983.87 1951.86 16620.55

5860.50 19249.75 13852.20 1942.37 16472.77

5871.45 19286.72 13884.13 1944.56 16472.77

-0.76 -0.62 -0.30 -0.36 -0.76
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm – 26 April ’13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

82.90 1.3011 54.22

82.91 1.3047 54.405

82.61 1.2995 54.077

82.78 1.30 54.39

-0.07 -0.09 0.55
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm – 26 April ’13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Mar’13 MCX Gold – June’13 Spot Silver Comex Silver May’13 MCX Silver – May’13 Crude Oil Nymex – May ‘13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil* MCX Crude Oil April’ ’13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper April’13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - April’13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX April’13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX April’13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX April’13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl

1467.45 1467.40 27135.0 24.33 28.23 45399 93.24 103.20 5059 7192.50 387.30 1931.00 103.00 2069 111.45 15496 833.30 1939.75 103.35

1484.81 1480.00 27264.0 24.82 24.1 45461 93.51 103.24 5074 7258.00 387.70 1939.00 103.00 2075 111.80 15541 839.30 1946.00 103.80

1458.79 1467.40 27003.0 23.87 23.955 44867 92.83 102.56 5044 7070.00 384.20 1911.00 102.40 2052 111.10 15333 830.00 1924.00 103.20

1463.24 1472.90 27041.0 23.93 23.955 45174 92.97 102.74 5059 7087.25 388.90 1911.00 103.25 2055 111.75 15342 833.90 1926.25 103.70

-0.26 0.76 0.20 -1.64 -0.77 -0.88 -0.72 -0.65 0.04 -1.57 -1.20 -1.34 -0.97 -0.96 -0.89 -0.70 -0.40 -0.84 -0.48

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update
Friday | April 26, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade lower on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments. However, sharp downside in the prices will be cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX. Further, expectations of rise in US GDP and consumer sentiments data can prevent sharp fall in the prices or even reversal.

Technical Outook for evening session – 26 April ’13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)
Commodity Gold June'13 Spot Gold Silver May’13 Spot Silver Brent Crude April’13 Crude Oil April’13 Nymex Crude Oil May’13 Natural Gas May’13 LME Copper Copper April’13 Zinc April’13 Lead April’13 Aluminum April’13 Nickel April’13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 26801 1439 44100 23.45 5540 4990 91.6 223.3 7000 380 100.95 109.6 101.3 820 Support 1 26996 1454 44500 23.92 5573 5044 92.6 226.7 7060 383 101.7 110.4 102.5 827 CMP 27148 1466 44750 24.07 5602 5066 92.98 228.2 7087 384.4 102.2 110.7 103.2 831.7 Resistance1 27360 1482 45200 24.80 5630 5110 93.8 231.5 7200 389 103.7 112.5 104.3 840 Resistance 2 27540 1497 45500 25.27 5660 5142 94.4 234 7285 393 104.4 113.4 104.9 851

Important Events for Today
Indicator Tokyo Core CPI y/y Monetary Policy Statement BOJ Outlook Report BOJ Press Conference M3 Money Supply y/y Advance GDP q/q Advance GDP Price Index q/q Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment Country Japan Japan Japan Japan Europe US US US Time (IST) 5:00am 10:05am 11:30am 1:10pm 1:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:25pm Actual -0.3% 2.6% Forecast -0.4% 3.0% 3.1% 1.3% 73.3 Previous -0.5% 3.1% 0.4% 1.0% 72.3 Impact Medium High Medium High Medium High Medium Medium

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