Friends, I want you to be the first to see our campaign's polling memo that details Joe Lhota's path

to victory in 2013. The memo, which you can find below, shows Joe is polling better than Mayor Bloomberg did at this point in 2001, and that as many as three candidates will split the Democrat vote in November. These are the perfect circumstances for Joe to win. But we won't be able to win unless we raise enough money to combat the career politicians and their special interest allies. Please help us ensure Joe is elected our next Mayor with a contribution today. Thanks, Kevin Tschirhart Political Director Joe Lhota for Mayor MEMORANDUM To: All Interested Parties From: Jake Menges and Kevin Tschirhart RE: Joe Lhota’s Path to Victory Date: April 29, 2013

Introduction
Recent public polling on the race for New York City Mayor indicates the circumstances are ideal for Joe Lhota to become the next Mayor. The current front runner, Christine Quinn, continues to see her popularity plummet. Meanwhile, three candidates are likely to split the Democratic vote in November. Moreover, Lhota is polling better than Mayor Michael Bloomberg did at this point of the campaign in 2001. Finally, the most recent public polls (Marist - April 17 & Quinnipiac - April 19), do not even bother testing George McDonald or John Catsimatidis, an indication they have only minimal support.

Quinn’s Quick Decline
The attacks from Quinn’s Democratic opponents have drastically hurt her poll numbers. She has lost 7 points in just two months. In February 2013, 37% of Democratic voters supported Quinn. Today, after two months of relentless attacks, only 30% of Democratic voters back Quinn, and just 26% support Quinn with former Rep. Anthony Weiner in the race.

* denotes when former Rep. Anthony Weiner is included in the poll (Source: November 21, January 16, & February 27 Quinnipiac Polls and February 14 & April 16 Marist Polls)

The Chaotic Democratic Race
Quinn still leads the race for the Democratic nomination. However, if Weiner were to enter the race, he would immediately garner 15% of the primary vote and throw the race into chaos. The Democratic primary would likely split along religious, ethnic

and racial lines – creating a divisive and ugly primary campaign on the Democratic side.

Quinn remains the Democratic front runner. However, if she wins the Democratic nomination, she will emerge from the primary a severely weakened candidate. Ultimately, less than 50% of Democrats will support her in the primary and New York Democrats will find themselves deeply divided over her candidacy.

Weiner’s Redemption?
Though Weiner’s public image has improved following his Twitter transgressions, New Yorkers remain unwilling to give him another chance to hold public office. Only 40% of New York City voters would consider voting for him, while an astounding 52% would not even consider voting for Weiner. A candidate with such limitations cannot win. Weiner may shake up the Democratic Primary, but he will not be New York’s next Mayor.

A Four Way Race
It remains likely New York City will see a four-way race for Mayor in November. Former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion has assured the Independence Party he will remain in the race. Meanwhile, the Working Families Party appears ready to endorse Bill de Blasio. With Lhota, this would result in four well-known candidates running for Mayor. Quinn, de Blasio and Carrion would split the Democratic vote, while Lhota would win Republican and Reagan Democrat votes. These are the perfect circumstances for Lhota to become New York’s next Mayor.

Historical Comparison
Lhota polls better than Bloomberg did at the same point of the campaign 12 years ago. In May 2001, Bloomberg trailed Public Advocate Mark Green 62-19. Lhota, meanwhile, trails Quinn 51-19. New York City has the proclivity to elect Republicans. Right now, Lhota is unknown to voters. As the campaign continues, voters will get to know Lhota, his experience and vision. As that happens, his numbers will increase substantially.

Conclusion
The chaos of the Democratic Primary, Quinn’s plummeting poll numbers, the likelihood of a four-way race in November, and the fact that Lhota’s poll numbers are better than Bloomberg’s were 12 years ago create the perfect conditions for Joe Lhota to become New York City’s next Mayor.

Paid for by Joe Lhota for Mayor, Inc. www.JoeLhotaforMayor.com

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