Market Outlook 

April 30, 2013

Dealer’s Diary

Domestic Indices

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

The Indian markets are expected to open in the green following strong start to SGX
Nifty and major Asian indices after better-than-expected reading on US housing
sales and amid speculation that central banks will continue the stimulation
measures.

BSE Sensex

0.5

Nifty

0.6

33

5,904

MID CAP

0.7

42

6,318

0.3

16

6,040

The US markets ended on a positive note on Monday with S&P 500 closing at a
record high as traders reacted positively to the latest batch of economic news. The
strength on Wall Street reflected a positive reaction a report from the National
Association of Realtors showing a bigger than expected rebound in pending home
sales in the month of March. The pending home sales index rose by 1.5% in March
2013 after falling by 1% in February 2013. A separate report from the Commerce
Department showed that personal spending climbed 0.2% in March 2013
following a 0.7% increase in February 2013.

BSE HC

(0.1)

(7)

8,618

BSE PSU

0.2

17

6,854

BANKEX

0.5

68 14,411

AUTO

0.5

57 10,906

METAL

Meanwhile in India, renewed hopes of an interest rate cut at the RBI's monetary
policy meet that is scheduled on May 3 helped stocks close higher on Monday.
Going ahead, release of economic data points is likely to remain in focus on
Tuesday, with traders likely to keep an eye on reports on home prices, consumer
confidence, and Chicago-area business activity.

Dow Jones

0.7

NASDAQ

0.8

28

3,307

FTSE

0.5

32

6,458

(0.3)

(42)

13,884

Hang Sang

0.1

33

22,581

Markets Today

Straits Times

0.4

13

3,362

The trend deciding level for the day is 19,367 / 5,897 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 19,449 – 19,511 / 5,926 – 5,947 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
19,367 / 5,897 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
19,305 – 19,222 / 5,876 – 5,847 levels.

Shanghai Com

(1.0)

(21)

2,178

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

INFY

1.8

0.7

$40.8

WIT

1.0

0.1

$7.7

Indices

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

0.2

0.1

$45.5

SENSEX

19,222

19,305

19,367

19,449

19,511

IBN

NIFTY

5,847

5,876

5,897

5,926

5,947

HDB

0.0

0.0

$42.2

News Analysis
„
„
„

SMALL CAP

101 19,388

(0.8)

(68)

8,569

OIL & GAS

0.5

48

8,739

BSE IT

1.0

58

5,673

(Pts)

(Close)

Global Indices

Nikkei

Indian ADR

Advances / Declines

Chg (%)

106 14,819

BSE

NSE

HMCL reaches on a wage settlement agreement with Gurgaon union
Result Review: Hindustan Unilever, Sterlite Industries, Bosch, Shree Cements,
Exide Industries, Bank of Maharashtra, Hexaware, KPIT
Result Preview: Godrej Consumer, Dabur, GSK Consumer, Marico, Sanofi
India, TVS Motor

Advances

1,289

753

Declines

1,070

588

131

111

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

BSE

2,359

NSE

9,598

Net Inflows (April 26, 2013)
` cr

Purch

Sales

Net

MTD

YTD

FII

3,367

3,064

303

4,754

59,504

349

492

(143)

(1,172)

(8,339)

MFs

FII Derivatives (April 29, 2013)
` cr

Purch

Sales

Net

Open Interest

Index Futures

870

863

7

10,138

Stock Futures

1,345

1,733

(388)

23,255

Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company

Losers

Price (`)

chg (%)

Coromandel Int.

200

8.3

IOB

Reliance Comm.

100

7.8

Jindal Steel

Hindustan Unilever

498

7.0

Indiabulls Real Est.

75

6.7

534

6.3

Siemens

www.angelbroking.com

Company

Price (`)

chg (%)

64

(5.1)

301

(4.2)

Bajaj Finance

1,215

(3.6)

Federal Bank

448

(3.0)

Exide Industries

135

(2.8)

Unchanged
Volumes (` cr)

Market Outlook
April 30, 2013

HMCL reaches on a wage settlement agreement with
Gurgaon union
According to media reports, Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) has finally arrived at a wage
settlement agreement with the Gurgaon union. While the entire terms of the
agreement are not fully disclosed, according to media sources, the company has
agreed to hike wages of permanent workers by `9,000 a month over a three year
period taking effect retrospectively from August 2012. According to the agreement,
in the first year, the workers will get a hike of `5,400 and the remaining `3,600
will to be divided equally over the next two years. Besides the wage hikes, the
management has also conceded to offer other benefits and bonuses to the
workforce.
The workers at the Gurgaon unit have been agitating for higher wages in a
peaceful manner since the past few months. As a mark of protest, the workers
have been sporting black arm-bands at the workplace and had also stopped
taking tea and snacks offered by the company. The company currently employs
around 1,200 permanent workers and 4,000 contract workers at its Gurgaon
facility. The Gurgaon facility accounts for ~30% of HMCL’s total annual installed
capacity of ~7mn units.
We see this as a positive development for HMCL as amicable solution to the
ongoing wage settlement dispute removes the uncertainty associated with the
disruption of operations at the plant. Further the impact of the wage settlement
agreement on company’s profitability is unlikely to be material as we expect a
marginal impact of 10-20bp on FY2014’s operating margins. We retain our
FY2014/15E earnings estimates for the company. At `1,649, the stock is trading
at 11.8x FY2015 earnings. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a
target price of `1,819.

Result Review
Hindustan Unilever (CMP: `465/ TP:-/ Upside:-)
HUL delivered healthy set of numbers for 4QFY2013. The company’s top-line and
bottom-line rose by 12.5% and 18.1% respectively. OPM stood at 13.7%, ahead of
our estimates of 13.4%. The most positive aspect of the result is the 6% yoy volume
growth posted by the company for the quarter. HUL managed to revive the volume
growth by passing on some benefits of reduction in raw material costs to
customers by way of price cuts and increased A&P expenditure. Soaps and
Detergents segment grew by 12.6% yoy, led by key brands such as Dove, Lux,
Lifebuoy, Rin and Surf. The high margin Personal Products segment rose by 12.1%.
Beverages segment rose by 18.3% yoy. We maintain our Neutral recommendation
on the stock.
Y/E
March

www.angelbroking.com

Sales
(` cr)

OPM

PAT

EPS

(%)

(` cr)

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/sales

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

28,974

13.5 3,663 16.9

74.3

29.4

18.7

26.0

3.5

FY2015E

32,970

13.5 3,913 18.1

58.3

27.5

14.0

22.6

3.1

Market Outlook
April 30, 2013

Sterlite Industries (CMP: `92/ TP: `98/ Upside: 7%)
Sterlite Industries (Sterlite) reported better than expected 4QFY2013 results
both on both top line and net profit front. Net sales increased 17.2% yoy to
`12,609cr above our estimate of `11,334cr. Net sales growth was driven by
increase in all the segments. Aluminium, Copper and Zinc segment revenues
grew 9.8%, 16.9% and 21.6% yoy to `953cr, `5783cr and `4,950cr,
respectively. On the operating front, Sterlite’s EBITDA grew 14.6% yoy at
`3,306cr and EBITDA margin was 26.2% (above our estimate of 23.1%)
mainly due to higher profitability from all the segments and hence, adjusted
net profit increased by 19.7% yoy to `2,041cr, which was above our estimate
of `1,522cr. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target
price of `98.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/sales

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

44,462

23.2 5,855 17.4

10.9

5.3

0.5

2.3

0.5

FY2015E

45,568

24.7 6,573 19.6

11.1

4.7

0.5

1.9

0.5

Bosch (CMP: `8,995/ TP: -/ Upside: -)
Bosch (BOS) reported better-than-expected results for 1QCY2013 led by
sequential expansion of 482bp in operating margins to 17.3% driven by a sharp
23.4% qoq decline in other expenditure. However, on a yoy basis the performance
was impacted due to the ongoing slowdown in the automotive industry.
For 1QCY2013, top-line posted a decline of 3.8% yoy to `2,207cr as medium and
heavy commercial vehicle and tractor segments of the automotive industry, the key
drivers of the company’s performance, witnessed a decline of 39% and 8.5% yoy
respectively. As a result, the diesel systems segment of the company posted a
decline of 13% yoy. While domestic sales declined 2.5% yoy, export sales posted a
decline of 9.5% yoy during the quarter. On the operating front, EBITDA margin
declined by a sharp 349bp yoy to 17.3% as employee and other expenditure as
percentage of sales surged 210bp and 180bp yoy respectively. However, on a
sequential basis, EBITDA margins improved 482bp led by lower other expenditure
which benefitted from the cost reduction initiatives undertaken by the company.
Hence, operating profit grew by a strong 43.5% qoq to `382cr, significantly higher
than our estimates of `258cr. Led by a strong sequential operating performance,
net profit posted a better-than-expected growth of 51% to `260cr. Nonetheless, it
declined 22.6% yoy largely due to contraction in operating margins.
While we are positive on the long term prospects of BOS due to its technological
leadership and strong and diversified product portfolio, we expect the near-term
environment to remain challenging given the continued slowdown in the domestic
automotive industry. Nevertheless, current valuations of 20.5x CY2014E earnings,
leaves limited room for any potential upside. Hence, we maintain our Neutral
rating on the stock.

www.angelbroking.com

Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

Dec.

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

EPS ROE
(`)

(%)

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

CY2013E

9,821

17.0 1,173 373.5 18.0 24.1

4.3

15.1

2.4

CY2014E

11,394

17.2 1,378 438.7 17.9 20.5

3.7

12.5

2.0

Market Outlook
April 30, 2013

Exide Industries (CMP: `135/ TP: `146/ Upside: 8%)
For 4QFY2013, Exide Industries’ (EXID) operating performance was slightly ahead
of our estimates led by expansion in EBITDA margins on account of the sustained
momentum in the four-wheeler (4W) replacement battery segment. The top-line for
the quarter grew broadly in-line with our estimates and stood at `1,541cr (6% yoy
and 5.3% qoq) led by continued traction in the 4W replacement battery segment.
However, sluggish demand in the 4W and 2W OEM battery segments restricted
further growth in the top-line. The growth in the industrial battery segment too
remained healthy led by pick-up in the home UPS battery segment. On the
operating front, EBITDA margins improved sharply by ~200bp qoq to 13.3%,
which was slightly ahead of our estimates of 12.5%. The margin expansion was
carried out purely due to the decline in other expenditure (7% qoq). As a
percentage of sales, other expenditure declined 190bp sequentially. The
raw-material and staff cost as percentage of sales however remained stable on a
sequential basis. Consequently, net profit surged 40.7% qoq (2.8% yoy) to `146cr
as against our estimates of `126cr. The net profit also benefitted from a sharp
jump of 148.8% qoq (105.9% yoy) in other income to `30cr. We shall revise our
estimates and release a detailed result note post our interaction with the
management during the earnings conference call. At `135 the stock is trading at
15.2x FY2015 earnings. Currently, we maintain our Accumulate rating on the
stock with a target price of `146.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

7,026

14.2

657

7.7

18.0

17.5

3.0

9.3

1.3

FY2015E

8,026

14.2

753

8.9

17.9

15.2

2.6

7.8

1.1

Bank of Maharashtra (CMP: `56 / TP: Under Review)
Bank of Maharashtra reported stellar performance during the quarter, registering
a bottom-line growth of 255.6% yoy, which was ahead of our expectation of
192.5% yoy growth. Strong NII growth (34.6% yoy, aided by similar growth in
advance), robust non-interest income performance (more than double on a yoy
basis) and flat provisioning expenses (on sequential improvement in asset quality
and also due to high base), resulted in stellar earnings performance for the bank.
Asset quality for the bank improved sequentially, as both Gross and net NPA levels
declined by 11.4% and 19.3% qoq, respectively. At CMP, the stock trades at 0.6x
FY2015x ABV. Post the recent surge in the stock, our target price has been
achieved and hence our rating and recommendation on the stock is currently
under review.
Y/E

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

4,289

2.9

826

11.6

79.3

0.6

15.7

4.8

0.7

FY2015E

4,670

2.8

922

13.1

89.4

0.6

15.6

4.3

0.6

March

Hexaware (CMP: `82 / TP:-/ Under review:- )
For 1QCY2013, Hexaware reported broadly in-line set of results with operating
margins coming ahead of expectations. The USD revenue came in at US$94mn,
up 1.8% qoq volume growth. In INR terms, revenue came in at `508cr, up 1.1%.
The company’s EBITDA margin grew by ~240bp (estimate 190bp) qoq to 19.3%

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 30, 2013

on account of considerable increase in utilization by ~550bp qoq to 70.3% and
offshore effort shift. PAT came in at `79cr, up 19.8% qoq.
Management has given 0-2% qoq USD revenue growth for 2QCY2013, which is
lower than the expectation of 1–3%. We maintain our accumulate rating on the
stock. The stock is currently under review and will be releasing a detailed result

update shortly.
Y/E

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

2,137

18.8

311

10.4

22.6

8.0

1.7

5.1

1.0

FY2015E

2,350

19.2

352

11.7

22.1

7.0

1.5

4.4

0.8

March

KPIT (CMP: `98 / TP:-/ Under review:- )
KPIT Cummins Infosystems (KPIT) reported its 4QFY2013 results which were
broadly in-line with our estimates on the revenue front but ahead on the operating
front. The dollar revenues came in at US$105.5mn, up 2% qoq. In INR terms,
revenues came in at `569cr, up 1.2% qoq. EBITDA margin of the company
expanded by 207bp qoq to 17.7%. For 4QFY2013, the company reported PAT of
`51cr, down ~15% qoq, while on a yoy basis the PAT grew 51.5%.
KPIT’s USD revenue for FY2013 grew by 33%, exceeding management gudance of
32% and much ahead of industry’s FY2013 growth rate.
For FY2014,
management has cited guidance of 14–16%, which is encouraging. We maintain
our buy rating on the stock. The stock is currently under review and will be
releasing a detailed result update shortly.
Y/E

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

2,458

15.5

241

13.1

20.9

7.5

1.5

3.9

0.6

FY2015E

2,729

15.2

267

14.5

18.8

6.8

1.2

3.0

0.5

March

Result Preview
Godrej Consumer (CMP: `856/ TP: -/ Upside: -)
Godrej Consumer is expected to declare its 4QFY2013 results today. We expect
the top-line to grow by 29.3% yoy to `1,711cr. OPM is expected to increase by
18bp yoy to 18.9%. Bottom-line is expected to increase by 27.2% yoy to `213cr.
We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.
Y/E
March

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

(` cr)

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/sales

(` cr)

(%)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

7,801

17.0

902 26.5

26.5

32.3

7.3

22.7

3.8

FY2015E

9,017

17.0 1,085 31.9

25.9

26.8

6.0

19.3

3.3

Dabur India (CMP: `147/ TP: -/ Upside: -)
Dabur is expected to declare its 4QFY2013 results today. We expect the top-line
to grow by 15.9% yoy to `1,581cr. OPM is expected to increase by 11bp yoy to
15.9%. Bottom-line is expected to increase by 18.5% yoy to `202cr. We maintain
our Neutral recommendation on the stock.

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 30, 2013

Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/sales

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

7,183

16.8

942

5.4

43.9

27.2

10.6

21.3

3.6

FY2015E

8,340

16.8 1,102

6.3

39.9

23.2

8.2

18.2

3.1

GSK Consumer (CMP: `3,817/ TP: -/ Upside: -)
GSK Consumer is expected to declare its 1QCY2013 results tomorrow. We expect
the top-line to grow by 8.6% yoy to `883cr. OPM is expected to decline by 89bp
yoy to 19.0%. Bottom-line is expected to increase by 7.3% yoy to `142cr. We
maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/sales

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

CY2013E

3,617

16.1

507120.6

33.7

31.6

9.8

25.4

4.1

CY2014E

4,259

16.4

616146.4

33.4

26.1

7.9

20.7

3.4

Marico (CMP: `223/ TP: -/ Upside: -)
Marico is expected to declare its 4QFY2013 results today. We expect the top-line
to grow by 21.8% yoy to `1,118cr. OPM is expected to increase by 212bp yoy to
11.1%. Bottom-line is expected to increase by 44.5% yoy to `103cr. We maintain
our Neutral recommendation on the stock.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/sales

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

5,352

14.0

510

7.9

22.8

28.1

5.8

19.5

2.8

FY2015E

6,204

14.0

631

9.8

22.9

22.7

4.7

16.5

2.4

Sanofi India (CMP: `2502/ Target:-/ Upside: -)
Sanofi India for the, 1QCY2013 is expected to post a good set of numbers. The
top line will grow by 24.3% to `401cr. The OPM is expected to come to end the
period at 14.6%, a decline of 70bps. Inspite, of the same the adjusted Net Profit is
expected to grow by 25.0% yoy to end the period at `50.1cr, on back of top-line
growth. We recommend a neutral on the stock.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/sales

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

1,682

16.6

213 92.4

15.7

27.1

3.8

18.4

3.0

FY2015E

1,917

16.6

228 99.1

14.8

25.3

3.5

17.4

2.9

TVS Motor (CMP: `39/ TP: -/ Upside: -)
TVS Motor is scheduled to announce its 4QFY2013 results today. We expect the
company to report a healthy top-line growth of ~11% yoy to `1,800cr led by
~15% yoy growth in net average realization driven by higher share of threewheelers in the product-mix. The total volumes however declined 3.6% yoy during
the quarter on account of weak motorcycle (down 4% yoy) and scooter sales (down
16.8% yoy) amidst rising competition and moderating demand environment. We
expect the EBITDA margin to remain flat yoy at 6% as increase in other expenditure
is expected to be offset by easing raw-material expenses. Nevertheless, bottom-line
is expected to decline 8% yoy to `53cr due to higher tax outgo (tax rate expected to

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 30, 2013

be at 22% as against 8% in 4QFY2012). At the CMP of `39, the stock is trading at
6.8x FY2015E earnings. Currently, we have a Neutral rating on the stock.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/sales

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

7,714

6.1

228

4.8

16.5

8.1

1.3

2.8

0.2

FY2015E

8,532

6.3

274

5.8

17.5

6.8

1.1

2.2

0.1

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimates
Dabur India Consolidated (30/04/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
Net sales

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

1,566

1,364

14.7

1,631

(4.1)

16.5

275

(4.8)

EBITDA

261

224

EBITDA margin (%)

16.7

16.5

Net profit

199

171

16.8
16.8

211

(5.7)

Godrej Consumer Products Consolidated (30/04/2013)
Particulars (` cr)

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

1,694

1,323

28.0

1,691

0.2

EBITDA

310

250

24.0

285

8.8

EBITDA margin (%)

18.3

18.9

Net profit

209

193

8.5

172

21.4

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

483

335

44.3

455

6.2

Net sales

16.8

IDFC Consolidated (01/05/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

Bharti Airtel Consolidated (02/05/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

20,836

18,729

11.2

20,240

2.9

2.8

6,199

3.7

6,430

6,253

EBITDA margin (%)

30.9

33.4

Net profit

729

1,006

(27.5)

284

156.9

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

778

829

(6.2)

711

9.4

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

401

297

35.1

362

10.9

30.6

Canara Bank (02/05/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

Kotak Mahindra Bank (02/05/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 30, 2013

Economic and Political News
„
„
„
„

In-principle approval given for 12 NIMZs
India may have to continue coal imports till 2017: Government
India's GDP likely to improve to 5.7% in 2013: IMF
Overseas fundraising down 13% in 2012-13

Corporate News
„
„
„
„

CERC upholds NTPC's PPAs to supply 37,000 MW to 37 beneficiaries
Lanco settles legal dispute with Perdaman Chemicals
BP seeks $1.5 per mmBtu incentive for deepsea gas
Airtel launches flat roaming rates for African customers
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 30, 2013
Result Calendar
Date

Company

April 30, 2013

Dabur India, Godrej Consumer, Petronet LNG, Marico, Aventis, TVS Motor, Finolex Cables, Taj GVK

May 01, 2013

May 03, 2013

IDFC, GlaxoSmith Con
Bharti Airtel, Kotak Mah. Bank, Canara Bank, Oriental Bank, Andhra Bank, Syndicate Bank, Alembic Pharma,
Automotive Axle
Ambuja Cements, ACC, Titan Inds., Hind. Const., Honeywell Automation

May 04, 2013

Grasim Inds, Jaiprakash Asso., Gujarat Gas

May 02, 2013

May 05, 2013
May 06, 2013

Mundra Port, Adani Power, South Ind.Bank

May 07, 2013

GSK Pharma, Shriram Trans., Glenmark Pharma., ITNL, CEAT

May 08, 2013

HDFC, Ranbaxy, ABB, Corporation Bank

May 09, 2013

Asian Paints, Union Bank

May 10, 2013

NTPC, Cummins India, Central Bank, Ashok Leyland, Apollo Tyres, Punj Lloyd

May 13, 2013

Nestle, Amara Raja Batteries

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar
Date

Time

Country Event Description

Unit

Period

Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated

April 30, 2013
May 1, 2013

May 2, 2013
May 3, 2013

1:25PM

Germany Unemployment change (000's)

7:30PM

US

Consumer Confidence

Thousands

Apr

13.00

2.00

S.A./ 1985=100

Apr

59.70

59.75

2:00PM

UK

6:30AM

China

PMI Manufacturing

Value

Apr

48.30

48.30

PMI Manufacturing

Value

Apr

50.90

50.70

11:30PM

US

FOMC rate decision

%

May 1

0.25

0.25

1:25PM

Germany PMI Manufacturing

5:15PM

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates

Value

Apr F

47.90

47.90

%

May 2

0.75

0.50

6:00PM

US

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

Thousands

Apr

88.00

145.00

6:00PM

US

Unnemployment rate

%

Apr

7.60

7.60

11:00AM

India

RBI Repo rate

%

May 3

7.50

7.25

11:00AM

India

RBI Cash Reserve ratio

%

May 3

4.00

4.00

11:00AM

India

RBI Reverse Repo rate

%

May 3

6.50

6.25

May 6, 2013

1:25PM

Germany PMI Services

Value

Apr F

49.20

--

May 8, 2013

4:29PM

China

Exports YoY%

% Change

Apr

10.00

--

May 9, 2013

2:00PM

UK

Industrial Production (YoY)

% Change

Mar

(2.20)

--

4:30PM

UK

BOE Announces rates

% Ratio

May 9

0.50

0.50

7:00AM

China

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

% Change

Apr

2.10

--

7:00AM

China

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

% Change

Apr

2.10

--

4:29PM

India

Exports YoY%

% Change

Apr

7.00

--

11:00AM

India

Industrial Production YoY

% Change

Mar

0.60

--

May 10, 2013

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Market Outlook
April 30, 2013

Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Exhibit 2: IIP trends
10.0
(%)

(%)
11.2

6.0
4.0

0.6

(0.1)

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

(2.8)

Mfg. PMI

58.0

7.5

(0.5)

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

(%)
7.6

(1.0)

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

7.6

(0.7)

(2.0)

Oct-12

(4.0)

(1.3)

Mar-12

3QFY13

2QFY13

1QFY13

4QFY12

3QFY12

2QFY12

1QFY12

4QFY11

3QFY11

2QFY11

1QFY11

4QFY10

3QFY10

2QFY10

(2.0)

Sep-12

5.3 5.5 5.3
4.5

7.5

2.4

2.0

Aug-12

6.0

Jul-12

5.7

2.5

2.0

Jun-12

6.5

8.0

Services PMI

8.1
7.3

7.2

7.3
6.6

56.0

6.8
6.0

54.0
52.0

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
(%)

48.0

Feb-12

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

50.0

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exports yoy growth

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
Repo rate

(%)
9.00

Imports yoy growth

30.0

Reverse Repo rate

CRR
7.50

8.00
15.0

7.00
6.50

6.00

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

www.angelbroking.com

4.00

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Mar-13

4.00

3.00

May-12

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

5.00

Apr-12

(30.0)

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

0.0

(15.0)

Feb-13

7.5

May-12

7.6

7.5

8.2

Apr-12

8.5

Source: CSO, Angel Research

9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0

8.4

8.0
9.2

9.0

1QFY10

12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0

Market Outlook
April 30, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( Č)

Price ( Č)

( Č cr )

Sales ( Č cr )
FY14E

OPM(%)

EPS ( Č)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis

Neutral

129

-

2,509

1,657

1,906

14.1

14.1

7.7

8.9

16.8

14.5

3.5

3.0

22.2

21.9

1.4

1.2

United Phosphorus

Buy

138

232

6,126

10,298

11,310

16.5

16.5

20.5

23.2

6.8

6.0

1.1

1.0

18.0

17.4

0.6

0.5

Amara Raja Batteries

Buy

265

326

4,532

3,418

3,892

15.1

14.9

19.8

21.7

13.4

12.2

3.2

2.6

27.1

23.7

1.3

1.2

Apollo Tyres

Accumulate

95

103

4,796

14,401

15,841

11.4

11.5

13.6

15.9

7.0

6.0

1.2

1.0

18.4

18.2

0.5

0.4

Ashok Leyland

Buy

23

27

5,987

13,833

16,192

9.6

9.7

2.0

2.7

11.4

8.5

1.9

1.7

12.1

15.2

0.5

0.4

Automotive Axle#

Accumulate

293

309

443

934

1,103

10.2

10.7

24.5

34.3

11.9

8.5

1.5

1.4

13.2

16.9

0.5

0.4

Bajaj Auto

Accumulate

1,897

2,014

54,891

22,552

25,498

18.6

18.6

117.9

134.3

16.1

14.1

5.8

4.7

40.2

36.6

2.0

1.7

Bharat Forge

Neutral

230

-

5,358

6,198

6,793

14.6

14.9

14.5

17.3

15.8

13.3

2.1

1.9

13.6

14.7

1.0

0.9

Bosch India*

Neutral

8,995

-

28,242

9,821

11,394

17.0

17.3

373.5

438.7

24.1

20.5

4.3

3.7

18.0

17.9

2.6

2.2

CEAT

Buy

108

155

369

5,403

6,057

8.3

8.3

36.4

41.3

3.0

2.6

0.4

0.4

15.3

16.6

0.2

0.2

Exide Industries

Accumulate

135

146

11,479

7,026

8,027

14.2

14.2

7.7

8.9

17.5

15.3

3.0

2.6

18.0

17.9

1.3

1.1

FAG Bearings*

Neutral

1,341

-

2,228

1,525

1,742

14.5

15.7

88.4

109.5

15.2

12.3

2.2

1.9

15.5

16.5

1.3

1.1

Hero Motocorp

Accumulate

1,649

1,819

32,921

25,274

27,658

14.1

13.8

106.8

140.0

15.4

11.8

5.5

4.3

38.8

41.1

1.1

1.0

JK Tyre

Buy

114

154

468

7,972

8,754

7.1

7.1

37.5

44.0

3.0

2.6

0.5

0.4

16.4

16.6

0.3

0.3

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate

903

1,006

55,427

44,550

50,260

11.4

11.7

59.6

68.3

15.2

13.2

3.1

2.6

22.3

21.6

1.0

0.8

1,681

1,847

48,557

48,455

55,723

11.2

10.9

107.8

123.2

15.6

13.7

2.4

2.0

16.2

16.0

0.8

0.7

Buy

189

222

11,131

28,442

31,493

7.5

7.8

12.5

14.8

15.1

12.8

3.7

3.0

27.5

25.8

0.5

0.5

Subros

Buy

26

30

154

1,479

1,685

10.0

9.9

5.5

7.5

4.7

3.4

0.5

0.5

11.1

13.7

0.4

0.3

Tata Motors

Accumulate

296

324

78,913 206,341 227,695

12.8

13.5

32.3

39.0

9.2

7.6

1.9

1.6

23.1

23.2

0.5

0.4

TVS Motor

Neutral

39

-

1,853

7,714

8,532

6.1

6.3

4.8

5.8

8.1

6.8

1.3

1.1

16.5

17.5

0.2

0.1

ABB*

Reduce

512

452

10,843

8,073

9,052

5.5

7.2

11.3

17.4

45.4

29.4

3.9

3.6

8.9

12.8

1.3

1.2

BGR Energy

Neutral

187

-

1,352

4,114

4,886

11.4

10.7

24.9

28.0

7.5

6.7

1.0

0.9

25.2

22.6

0.6

0.6

BHEL

Neutral

191

-

46,823

43,757

40,934

17.3

16.9

20.9

19.0

9.2

10.1

2.0

1.8

23.7

18.8

0.9

0.9

Blue Star

Buy

161

230

1,445

2,896

3,087

5.6

6.2

9.3

11.7

17.3

13.7

2.8

2.4

17.6

19.2

0.6

0.5

Crompton Greaves

Buy

92

117

5,927

13,790

15,095

6.4

7.4

6.9

9.4

13.4

9.9

1.5

1.4

11.7

14.5

0.5

0.4

Jyoti Structures

Accumulate

30

34

244

3,074

3,355

9.0

8.8

8.7

10.2

3.4

2.9

0.3

0.3

10.4

11.1

0.3

0.2

KEC International

Buy

53

67

1,369

7,750

8,631

6.8

7.0

7.7

9.2

6.9

5.8

1.0

0.9

20.8

20.8

0.3

0.3

Thermax

Neutral

573

-

6,828

5,931

6,592

9.6

9.7

31.0

34.3

18.5

16.7

3.2

2.8

18.6

17.9

1.0

0.9

1,244

1,361

23,346

12,182

13,435

21.0

22.4

78.7

98.8

15.8

12.6

2.9

2.6

19.0

21.4

1.6

1.4

Maruti

Accumulate

Motherson Sumi

Capital Goods

Cement
ACC

Accumulate

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 30, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( Č cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( Č)

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( Č)

Price ( Č)

( Č cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Cement
Ambuja Cements

Neutral

186

-

28,641

10,681

11,991

25.0

25.5

10.8

12.8

17.1

14.6

3.0

2.7

18.1

19.4

2.2

1.8

India Cements

Neutral

83

-

2,548

4,777

5,276

17.3

17.1

8.8

10.9

9.4

7.7

0.7

0.7

7.5

8.8

0.9

0.8

J K Lakshmi Cement

Buy

98

143

1,156

2,313

2,728

19.8

20.7

16.6

23.1

5.9

4.3

0.8

0.7

13.6

16.5

1.1

0.8

Madras Cements

Neutral

241

-

5,727

4,293

4,855

27.4

28.6

21.8

28.2

11.1

8.5

2.0

1.7

19.6

21.3

1.8

1.5

Shree Cement^

Neutral

4,411

-

15,366

6,706

7,751

28.7

27.7

338.2

375.5

13.0

11.8

3.3

2.7

28.5

25.2

1.6

1.2

UltraTech Cement

Neutral

1,920

-

52,637

21,947

25,049

23.8

23.8

106.1

119.8

18.1

16.0

3.0

2.6

17.7

17.3

2.5

2.1

190

272

1,000

2,013

2,293

22.5

22.5

26.0

24.4

7.3

7.8

0.8

0.7

11.7

9.9

2.1

1.9

12

-

217

2,281

2,492

5.9

6.9

0.7

2.0

17.3

5.9

0.4

0.4

2.3

6.5

0.4

0.3

Construction
Ashoka Buildcon

Buy

Consolidated Co

Neutral

IRB Infra

Buy

117

167

3,890

4,152

4,624

44.4

45.0

17.0

17.2

6.9

6.8

1.1

0.9

16.2

14.6

3.3

3.4

ITNL

Buy

173

230

3,360

7,177

7,772

27.4

28.9

29.4

32.4

5.9

5.3

0.9

0.8

16.5

15.9

2.6

2.7

IVRCL Infra

Buy

20

35

626

6,287

6,836

8.5

8.5

2.3

3.0

8.7

6.7

0.3

0.3

3.4

4.2

0.5

0.5

Jaiprakash Asso.

Buy

77

95

17,098

14,914

15,699

26.2

26.4

4.2

4.4

18.4

17.7

1.2

1.1

6.8

6.6

2.5

2.4

Larsen & Toubro

Buy

1,530

1,795

94,190

69,586

79,247

11.2

11.1

75.1

84.9

20.4

18.0

2.9

2.5

15.2

15.0

1.5

1.4

Nagarjuna Const.

Buy

32

45

819

6,576

7,264

8.2

8.3

4.1

4.8

7.8

6.7

0.3

0.3

4.2

4.7

0.5

0.5

Punj Lloyd

Neutral

53

-

1,750

1,338

1,542

10.2

10.2

3.0

4.8

17.8

11.1

0.6

0.6

3.4

5.2

5.5

5.3

Sadbhav Engg.

Buy

115

153

1,737

2,511

2,736

10.6

10.6

7.3

7.8

15.9

14.8

2.0

1.8

13.3

12.7

0.9

0.8

Simplex Infra

Buy

117

164

579

6,824

7,563

9.2

9.4

18.0

23.4

6.5

5.0

0.4

0.4

6.9

8.3

0.5

0.4

Unity Infra

Buy

31

45

232

2,455

2,734

13.4

13.0

14.6

14.9

2.2

2.1

0.3

0.2

12.3

11.3

0.5

0.5

136

155

6,808

7,137

7,907

2.9

2.8

32.3

36.0

4.2

3.8

0.6

0.5

14.2

14.2

-

-

92

-

5,151

5,285

5,937

3.0

2.9

21.2

23.4

4.3

3.9

0.6

0.6

13.4

13.4

-

-

Financials
Allahabad Bank

Accumulate

Andhra Bank

Neutral

Axis Bank

Buy

1,474

1,737

68,991

19,055

22,710

3.3

3.2

130.7

152.3

11.3

9.7

1.8

1.6

17.2

17.6

-

-

Bank of Baroda

Buy

699

815

29,433

16,318

18,682

2.4

2.4

121.4

144.6

5.8

4.8

0.8

0.7

15.2

16.0

-

-

Bank of India

Accumulate

328

360

19,543

14,284

16,295

2.3

2.3

55.9

68.4

5.9

4.8

0.8

0.7

13.9

15.2

-

-

Bank of Maharashtra

Neutral

56

-

3,724

4,289

4,670

2.9

2.8

11.6

13.1

4.9

4.3

0.7

0.6

15.7

15.6

-

-

Canara Bank

Accumulate

422

461

18,708

11,673

13,208

2.3

2.3

74.8

85.8

5.6

4.9

0.8

0.7

13.7

14.1

-

-

Central Bank

Neutral

70

-

7,343

8,079

9,086

2.6

2.6

14.9

18.0

4.7

3.9

0.7

0.6

12.2

13.3

-

-

Corporation Bank

Buy

379

453

5,792

5,397

5,973

2.2

2.2

96.3

105.9

3.9

3.6

0.6

0.5

14.6

14.4

-

-

Dena Bank

Accumulate

93

101

3,252

3,334

3,700

2.7

2.7

23.6

26.5

3.9

3.5

0.6

0.5

15.5

15.3

-

-

Federal Bank

Neutral

448

-

7,664

2,916

3,389

3.3

3.3

50.1

59.4

8.9

7.6

1.1

1.0

12.8

13.7

-

-

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 30, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( Č)

Price ( Č)

( Č cr )

Sales ( Č cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( Č)

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Financials
HDFC

Neutral

864

-

133,596

8,928

10,684

3.7

3.7

38.4

45.3

22.5

19.1

4.9

4.3

32.5

32.4

-

-

HDFC Bank

Neutral

694

-

165,182

27,682

33,916

4.6

4.6

35.3

42.7

19.7

16.3

3.9

3.3

21.3

21.8

-

-

ICICI Bank

Accumulate

1,152

1,306

132,935

26,371

31,618

3.0

3.0

84.1

96.7

13.7

11.9

1.8

1.7

15.8

16.5

-

-

IDBI Bank

Accumulate

90

96

11,948

9,309

10,541

2.1

2.2

20.1

23.4

4.5

3.8

0.6

0.5

12.8

13.5

-

-

Indian Bank

Buy

165

200

7,085

6,276

6,968

3.1

3.1

38.3

42.3

4.3

3.9

0.6

0.6

15.2

14.9

-

-

IOB

Buy

64

78

5,886

8,205

9,048

2.6

2.5

16.4

20.3

3.9

3.1

0.5

0.4

11.6

13.1

-

-

J & K Bank

Neutral

1,321

-

6,404

3,032

3,118

3.8

3.5

218.1

200.9

6.1

6.6

1.1

1.0

19.9

16.0

-

-

LIC Housing Finance

Neutral

252

-

12,725

2,127

2,498

2.2

2.2

25.1

28.2

10.1

8.9

1.7

1.5

18.3

17.9

-

-

Oriental Bank

Neutral

272

-

7,923

6,791

7,478

2.7

2.7

56.7

63.4

4.8

4.3

0.6

0.6

12.9

13.1

-

-

Punjab Natl.Bank

Accumulate

784

889

27,709

21,161

24,166

3.3

3.3

153.4

176.4

5.1

4.4

0.8

0.7

16.1

16.3

-

-

South Ind.Bank

Neutral

24

-

3,192

1,826

2,081

3.0

2.9

4.0

4.5

5.9

5.3

1.0

0.9

17.6

17.1

-

-

St Bk of India

Accumulate

2,272

2,567

155,443

67,091

76,746

3.2

3.1

241.2

280.4

9.4

8.1

1.5

1.3

16.5

17.0

-

-

Syndicate Bank

Accumulate

118

130

7,088

7,340

8,212

2.9

2.8

26.4

28.7

4.5

4.1

0.7

0.6

15.8

15.2

-

-

UCO Bank

Neutral

69

-

5,186

6,126

6,665

2.6

2.5

12.2

14.4

5.7

4.8

0.9

0.7

11.8

12.6

-

-

Union Bank

Accumulate

246

264

14,657

11,226

12,769

2.7

2.7

41.0

47.8

6.0

5.1

0.9

0.7

14.8

15.4

-

-

United Bank

Accumulate

60

68

2,244

3,597

4,008

2.6

2.7

16.0

20.8

3.8

2.9

0.5

0.4

12.5

14.7

-

-

Vijaya Bank

Neutral

53

-

2,641

2,600

2,946

2.0

2.1

9.7

11.0

5.5

4.9

0.6

0.6

11.4

11.7

-

-

Yes Bank

Neutral

504

-

18,084

4,390

5,411

2.8

2.8

41.6

47.9

12.1

10.5

2.6

2.1

23.2

22.1

-

-

Asian Paints

Neutral

4,701

-

45,094

13,319

15,805

15.7

15.7

143.8

170.2

32.7

27.6

10.2

8.1

35.1

32.7

3.3

2.8

Britannia

Neutral

564

-

6,747

6,417

7,446

5.1

5.5

20.3

25.2

27.9

22.4

9.5

7.5

37.4

37.3

1.0

0.8

Colgate

Neutral

1,390

-

18,902

3,588

4,130

21.1

21.6

44.7

51.9

31.1

26.8

28.0

20.8

100.0

89.1

5.1

4.4

Dabur India

Neutral

147

-

25,612

7,183

8,340

16.8

16.8

5.4

6.3

27.2

23.2

10.6

8.2

43.9

39.9

3.5

3.0

GlaxoSmith Con*

Neutral

3,817

-

16,051

3,617

4,260

16.1

16.4

120.6

146.4

31.6

26.1

9.8

7.9

33.8

33.4

4.1

3.4

Godrej Consumer

Neutral

856

-

29,125

7,801

9,017

17.0

17.0

26.5

31.9

32.3

26.8

7.3

6.0

26.5

25.9

3.9

3.3

HUL

Neutral

498

-

107,605

28,974

32,970

13.5

13.5

17.0

18.1

29.4

27.5

18.7

14.0

74.3

58.3

3.5

3.0

ITC

Neutral

324

-

256,296

33,506

39,067

36.8

37.0

11.1

13.0

29.3

25.0

9.5

7.7

35.5

34.1

7.3

6.2

Marico

Neutral

223

-

14,366

5,352

6,204

14.0

14.0

7.9

9.8

28.1

22.8

5.8

4.7

22.8

22.9

2.7

2.2

Nestle*

Neutral

4,720

-

45,509

9,739

11,307

21.5

22.2

131.6

159.9

35.9

29.5

18.1

13.0

58.8

69.5

4.6

3.9

Tata Global

Neutral

144

-

8,920

7,998

8,798

9.7

9.8

7.9

8.7

18.3

16.6

2.2

2.1

9.6

9.8

1.0

0.9

FMCG

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 30, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( Č cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( Č)

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( Č)

Price ( Č)

( Č cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

IT
HCL Tech^

Buy

701

863

48,812

28,633

32,216

21.5

20.7

57.3

61.7

12.2

11.4

2.9

2.4

24.0

21.5

1.5

1.3

Hexaware*

Buy

82

105

2,458

2,137

2,350

18.8

19.2

10.4

11.7

8.0

7.0

1.8

1.5

22.6

22.1

1.0

0.9

Infosys

Accumulate

2,229

2,465

128,000

43,338

47,244

27.5

27.7

169.4

182.6

13.2

12.2

2.7

2.4

20.8

19.3

2.3

2.0

Infotech Enterprises

Accumulate

171

196

1,914

1,994

2,039

18.1

18.5

20.2

21.8

8.5

7.9

1.2

1.0

13.8

13.1

0.5

0.4

KPIT Cummins

Buy

98

130

1,887

2,458

2,729

15.5

15.2

13.1

14.5

7.5

6.8

1.5

1.2

20.9

18.8

0.7

0.5

Mahindra Satyam

Buy

108

143

12,668

8,456

9,385

19.3

19.1

10.6

11.9

10.2

9.1

2.3

1.8

22.4

20.1

1.1

0.9

Mindtree

Accumulate

805

926

3,345

2,587

2,823

19.4

19.4

87.2

92.6

9.2

8.7

2.0

1.6

21.8

18.8

1.0

0.8

Mphasis&

Accumulate

374

395

7,858

6,096

6,646

17.6

17.4

38.1

41.6

9.8

9.0

1.4

1.2

14.2

13.7

0.8

0.6

NIIT

Buy

24

30

396

1,144

1,267

9.0

9.1

4.3

5.4

5.6

4.5

0.6

0.5

10.3

12.0

0.1

0.1

Persistent

Buy

520

602

2,080

1,433

1,591

24.7

24.6

55.5

60.2

9.4

8.6

1.7

1.5

18.4

16.8

1.1

0.8

TCS

Buy

1,371

1,585

268,276

71,833

81,893

28.4

28.0

78.5

88.0

17.5

15.6

5.3

4.4

30.2

27.9

3.5

3.0

Tech Mahindra

Buy

945

1,230

12,105

7,699

8,315

19.3

18.1

107.0

115.0

8.8

8.2

1.9

1.6

21.7

19.1

1.6

1.4

Wipro

Accumulate

342

385

84,208

40,173

43,697

20.4

20.6

26.2

28.5

13.1

12.0

2.6

2.2

19.7

18.4

1.6

1.3

D B Corp

Buy

234

272

4,292

1,787

1,974

25.4

26.4

14.5

16.9

16.1

13.9

3.4

2.9

22.4

22.2

2.3

2.0

HT Media

Accumulate

104

117

2,448

2,205

2,380

15.1

15.6

8.0

9.1

13.0

11.5

1.4

1.2

11.2

11.4

0.7

0.6

Jagran Prakashan

Buy

93

121

3,075

1,698

1,908

23.9

24.5

7.4

8.4

12.6

11.1

3.2

2.8

26.7

26.8

1.9

1.7

PVR

Neutral

338

-

1,337

1,343

1,521

18.8

18.9

18.3

22.9

18.4

14.8

1.7

1.9

10.6

12.3

1.0

0.9

Sun TV Network

Neutral

421

-

16,607

2,293

2,571

68.7

68.7

19.3

22.7

21.8

18.6

5.3

4.7

26.1

27.3

6.7

5.8

Bhushan Steel

Neutral

457

-

10,340

13,794

17,335

30.7

34.8

48.9

83.6

9.3

5.5

1.0

0.8

11.2

16.7

2.4

1.9

Coal India

Accumulate

314

345

198,050

72,174

76,311

33.3

28.4

28.4

30.9

11.0

10.2

3.0

2.6

37.6

36.2

1.9

1.7

Electrosteel Castings

Buy

17

26

585

2,074

2,176

10.4

11.3

1.9

2.3

8.9

7.4

0.1

0.1

3.7

4.3

0.5

0.2

GMDC

Buy

153

213

4,865

1,944

2,317

49.9

51.7

20.8

25.6

7.4

6.0

1.6

1.3

24.3

24.6

2.0

1.5

Hind. Zinc

Buy

119

145

50,429

12,358

13,659

51.4

51.6

16.0

17.6

7.4

6.8

1.4

1.2

19.4

18.4

1.8

1.3

Hindalco

Neutral

99

-

18,916

88,987

94,163

9.2

9.7

13.8

15.9

7.2

6.2

0.5

0.5

7.6

8.1

0.6

0.5

JSW Steel

Neutral

699

-

15,605

39,524

42,064

17.1

16.9

71.8

86.3

9.7

8.1

0.8

0.8

8.6

9.6

0.7

0.6

MOIL

Accumulate

225

243

3,778

954

1,062

45.5

47.4

26.1

29.1

8.6

7.7

1.2

1.1

15.1

15.2

1.5

1.1

Monnet Ispat

Buy

199

291

1,267

2,883

3,181

21.7

23.6

40.3

57.7

4.9

3.5

0.5

0.4

10.1

13.0

1.3

1.1

Nalco

Neutral

36

-

9,162

8,187

8,416

14.5

14.7

3.2

3.3

11.1

10.9

0.7

0.7

6.8

6.7

0.6

0.6

NMDC

Buy

124

179

49,004

10,329

12,540

73.8

75.0

16.6

19.0

7.4

6.5

1.4

1.2

20.6

20.2

2.6

2.0

Media

Metals & Mining

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 30, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( Č cr )

( Č)

Price ( Č)

( Č cr )

FY14E

FY15E

63

-

25,896

53,685

155

163

13,471

3,742

30,834

45,864

OPM(%)

EPS ( Č)

FY14E

FY15E

64,183

9.3

12.2

4,426

32.9

32.8

46,970

23.8

25.3

29,370 141,775 151,672

10.5

11.4

FY14E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

5.5

8.3

11.5

7.6

0.6

0.6

31.3

31.2

5.0

5.0

0.7

0.6

18.8

20.9

4.9

4.4

0.5

0.5

35.3

51.7

8.6

5.9

0.6

0.6

FY14E

EV/Sales(x)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

5.4

7.7

0.8

0.8

14.8

12.9

4.3

3.6

11.7

11.8

0.6

0.5

7.6

10.3

0.5

0.5

Metals & Mining
SAIL

Neutral

Sesa Goa

Accumulate

Sterlite Inds

Accumulate

92

98

Tata Steel

Buy

302

430

Sarda

Buy

105

153

375

1,494

1,568

19.1

20.3

31.3

36.5

3.3

2.9

0.4

0.3

11.8

12.4

0.6

0.5

Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas

Buy

36

48

484

2,668

2,834

10.0

10.1

4.6

5.2

7.8

7.0

0.2

0.2

3.2

3.4

0.5

0.4

Buy

88

118

290

2,425

2,552

13.7

14.8

33.5

45.3

2.6

2.0

0.3

0.2

11.2

13.1

0.5

0.4

Cairn India

Accumulate

307

345

58,654

16,482

16,228

69.4

53.3

53.3

49.6

5.8

6.2

0.9

0.8

16.5

13.6

2.2

1.9

GAIL

Neutral

351

-

44,511

55,815

63,013

15.3

15.2

35.9

41.5

9.8

8.5

1.6

1.4

17.0

17.1

0.7

0.5

ONGC

Accumulate

329

354

281,305 157,962 175,367

35.1

36.2

34.3

39.3

9.6

8.4

1.7

1.5

18.2

18.6

1.5

1.4

Reliance Industries

Neutral

793

-

255,956 380,031 407,721

9.9

69.3

69.3

78.0

11.4

10.2

1.1

1.0

11.5

11.7

0.6

0.6

Gujarat Gas*

Neutral

248

-

3,179

3,707

3,850

11.7

12.4

23.7

25.7

10.5

9.7

2.9

2.5

29.6

28.2

0.7

0.7

Indraprastha Gas

Neutral

311

-

4,358

3,700

4,218

23.4

22.8

26.6

30.4

11.7

10.2

2.4

2.0

22.6

21.7

1.3

1.0

Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals

Buy

138

174

10,384

41,362

40,852

5.8

6.5

15.6

17.4

8.9

8.0

2.0

1.7

24.1

22.5

0.3

0.3

68

-

3,812

1,079

983

91.8

91.9

8.8

7.8

7.7

8.7

1.3

1.2

17.8

14.1

3.3

3.5

Alembic Pharma

Accumulate

113

122

2,130

1,714

1,976

17.1

19.0

9.5

12.2

11.9

9.3

3.2

2.4

30.2

29.8

1.3

1.1

Aurobindo Pharma

Buy

192

264

5,591

6,279

7,033

16.0

16.0

15.2

19.2

12.6

10.0

1.7

1.4

19.2

18.0

1.4

1.2

Aventis*

Neutral

2,502

-

5,761

1,682

1,917

16.6

16.6

92.4

99.1

27.1

25.2

3.8

3.8

15.7

14.8

3.1

2.5

Cadila Healthcare

Buy

774

962

15,850

7,386

8,863

18.0

18.0

39.5

48.1

19.6

16.1

4.4

3.6

24.8

24.7

2.4

2.0

Cipla

Accumulate

408

463

32,723

9,130

10,543

24.8

23.0

21.6

23.2

18.9

17.6

3.1

2.7

17.6

16.2

3.3

2.7

Dr Reddy's

Neutral

1,993

-

33,828

11,662

13,101

21.0

20.8

92.9

103.9

21.5

19.2

4.1

3.5

20.8

19.6

3.1

2.7

Dishman Pharma

Buy

GSK Pharma*

Neutral

Indoco Remedies

Neutral

69

206

554

1,536

1,739

20.2

20.9

15.4

20.6

4.5

3.3

0.5

0.4

11.6

13.7

1.0

0.8

2,219

-

18,793

2,993

3,319

30.4

30.2

78.1

86.7

28.4

25.6

8.6

7.7

31.6

31.9

5.5

4.8

Buy

64

90

587

784

902

15.2

15.2

7.8

9.0

8.2

7.1

1.2

1.0

15.6

15.8

1.0

0.8

Ipca labs

Buy

517

676

6,518

3,474

4,168

21.0

21.0

37.3

45.1

13.9

11.5

3.3

2.6

26.4

25.3

2.0

1.7

Lupin

Buy

686

792

30,699

11,564

13,847

21.1

21.1

32.8

39.6

20.9

17.3

4.8

3.9

25.7

24.7

2.7

2.2

Ranbaxy*

Neutral

457

-

19,327

11,400

12,060

12.5

12.5

21.6

22.5

21.2

20.3

4.0

3.5

20.6

18.5

1.6

1.5

Sun Pharma

Reduce

942

888

97,355

12,563

14,698

42.6

42.6

29.8

35.5

31.6

26.5

5.6

4.7

19.2

19.3

7.1

5.9

72

78

1,086

1,535

1,570

31.9

31.6

13.1

14.1

5.5

5.1

0.7

0.6

12.4

12.2

1.0

0.8

Power
GIPCL

Accumulate

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 30, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( Č cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( Č)

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( Č)

Price ( Č)

( Č cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Neutral

156

-

128,629

81,951

92,264

24.1

24.3

13.6

14.9

11.5

10.5

1.4

1.3

13.0

13.1

2.3

2.1

DLF

Buy

242

288

41,033

9,699

12,010

37.0

36.9

6.0

8.4

40.5

28.7

1.5

1.4

3.8

5.1

5.6

4.6

MLIFE

Accumulate

415

446

1,695

888

1,002

26.7

25.9

36.3

40.6

11.5

10.2

1.2

1.1

10.8

11.0

2.1

1.9

Bharti Airtel

Neutral

318

-

120,799

86,933

96,121

30.2

31.2

10.3

15.7

31.0

20.3

2.2

2.0

7.0

9.7

2.1

1.8

Idea Cellular

Neutral

126

-

41,734

24,959

27,232

27.1

27.5

3.7

4.7

33.9

26.8

2.7

2.5

8.1

9.2

2.1

1.9

Rcom

Neutral

100

-

20,702

22,221

24,253

32.0

32.2

4.3

6.4

23.1

15.6

0.6

0.5

2.4

3.4

2.5

2.1

11.8

12.4

71.2

83.0

19.6

16.8

3.9

3.4

21.6

21.5

1.3

1.0

Power
NTPC
Real Estate

Telecom

Others
Abbott India*

Buy

1,396

1,659

2,967

1,863

2,081

Bajaj Electricals

Buy

175

237

1,750

3,929

4,480

7.4

7.7

15.5

19.7

11.3

8.9

2.0

1.7

17.4

18.7

0.5

0.4

Cera Sanitaryware

Buy

452

620

572

596

743

16.2

16.1

45.0

56.3

10.0

8.0

2.5

1.9

27.8

26.9

1.0

0.8

Cravatex

Buy

319

566

82

308

351

7.0

7.0

39.6

47.2

8.1

6.8

1.8

1.4

21.8

21.0

0.3

0.3

Finolex Cables

Buy

54

68

820

2,559

2,893

9.8

9.8

9.8

11.3

5.5

4.7

0.8

0.7

14.1

14.1

0.3

0.2

Force Motors

Buy

383

570

499

2,299

2,621

4.7

4.9

46.3

57.0

8.3

6.7

0.4

0.4

5.0

5.8

0.1

0.1

Goodyear India*

Buy

277

352

638

1,453

1,560

9.4

9.8

38.4

41.4

7.2

6.7

1.5

1.3

22.9

20.8

0.3

0.2

Hitachi

Buy

133

177

361

1,053

1,169

6.3

7.1

13.8

17.7

9.6

7.5

1.4

1.2

15.0

16.7

0.4

0.3

Honeywell Automation* Buy

2,410

2,842

2,131

2,117

2,491

8.1

7.8

137.9

157.9

17.5

15.3

2.6

2.3

16.0

15.8

0.9

0.8

IFB Agro

Accumulate

173

198

155

495

651

12.7

12.9

29.3

39.5

5.9

4.4

0.8

0.7

15.4

17.6

0.4

0.3

ITD Cementation

Buy

178

238

205

1,430

1,573

12.1

12.2

21.8

30.6

8.2

5.8

0.5

0.5

6.1

8.0

0.6

0.6

Jyothy Laboratories

Neutral

174

-

2,813

979

1,164

14.9

15.1

6.0

7.7

29.0

22.6

3.6

3.3

12.9

15.1

3.0

2.5

MRF

Accumulate

13,668

14,416

5,797

11,799

12,587

14.1

13.5 1,792.4 1,802.0

7.6

7.6

1.6

1.3

23.5

19.2

0.6

0.5

Page Industries

Neutral

3,549

-

3,959

1,047

1,281

19.6

19.8

127.3

158.1

27.9

22.5

13.3

9.7

54.9

50.0

3.9

3.2

Relaxo Footwears

Buy

609

786

731

1,148

1,360

11.7

11.9

55.5

71.4

11.0

8.5

2.6

2.0

26.3

26.2

0.8

0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills

Buy

241

312

226

1,157

1,320

11.9

12.0

66.6

77.9

3.6

3.1

0.6

0.5

18.3

18.2

0.4

0.4

S. Kumars Nationwide

Neutral

7

-

220

6,765

7,393

18.1

18.0

6.4

7.5

1.2

1.0

0.1

0.1

6.1

6.7

0.6

0.6

Styrolution ABS India*

Buy

487

744

856

1,069

1,223

9.7

9.7

40.0

46.5

12.2

10.5

1.7

1.5

15.1

15.3

0.8

0.7

TAJ GVK

Buy

64

108

401

300

319

35.8

36.2

7.9

9.1

8.1

7.0

1.1

1.0

13.9

14.4

1.6

1.4

Tata Sponge Iron

Buy

295

371

454

814

849

17.0

17.6

64.6

69.2

4.6

4.3

0.6

0.6

14.5

13.8

0.2

-

TTK Healthcare

Accumulate

482

553

375

435

516

6.2

7.1

24.3

33.3

19.9

14.5

3.3

2.8

17.6

20.8

0.7

0.6

Tree House

Neutral

268

-

964

150

192

52.7

52.5

12.8

16.2

20.9

16.5

2.1

1.8

10.0

11.1

6.0

4.6

TVS Srichakra

Buy

196

226

150

1,591

1,739

7.1

7.4

39.4

56.5

5.0

3.5

1.0

0.8

20.6

25.0

0.3

0.3

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 30, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( Č cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( Č)

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( Č)

Price ( Č)

( Č cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

2,078

-

27,177

11,886

13,491

14.4

14.0

50.9

74.5

40.8

27.9

3.4

3.0

10.6

11.4

2.6

2.3

361

439

733

600

638

20.1

19.4

35.7

36.6

10.1

9.9

1.8

1.6

19.4

17.1

1.0

0.9

Others
United Spirits

Neutral

Vesuvius India*

Buy

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on April 29, 2013

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
April 30, 2013

www.angelbroking.com

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