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Chuck Kazmierski Program Manager, Lucintel
www.acmashow.org February 21-23, 2012 Mandalay Bay Convention Center, Las Vegas, NV
• Executive Summary • Composites Market Analysis • Opportunity in Automotive Market • Growth Opportunities in 2012 and Beyond
• About Lucintel
Creating the Equation for Growth
• Global composite materials industry reached $19.6B in 2011, marking an annual increase of 8.2% from 2010, and driven by recovering of majority of markets • Market value of end use products made with composites was $55.6B in 2011
North American composites industry accelerated by ~ 9 % in 2011, Europe increased by ~ 8%
while Asia grew by ~ 7% in 2011
By 2017, composite materials industry is expected to reach $ 29.9B (~ 7% CAGR) while end products made with composite materials market value is expected to reach $85B
Global Automotive composite materials market was estimated to be around $ 2.8 B in 2011, and
is forecast to reach $ 4.3 B by 2017 @ CAGR of approx. 7%
Significant interest by Automotive OEMs in carbon fiber applications
Population growth, new infrastructure projects, urbanization, increase in middle class population, and the green movement will drive composites growth to new horizons in emerging economies.
Creating the Equation for Growth
Today’s Agenda • Executive Summary • Composites Market Analysis • Opportunity in Automotive Market • Growth Opportunities in 2012 and Beyond • Conclusions • About Lucintel Creating the Equation for Growth 4 .
00 10.4 B 14% Composites Penetration Compared to Competing Materials (Steel & Al) 0% – 25% 0% – 50% Pipe & tank Aerospace Marine Transportation 0.3 B $9.00 70.4 B 68% 10% 7% 4% 38% $1.8 B $23.00 20.00 90.00 US$ Billion Total Market Potentia ($ B) Composite Materials Market Size ($ B) Creating the Equation for Growth 5 .6% Performance Gap Price Gap Transportation Marine Aerospace Pipe & tank Construction Wind Energy Consumer Goods Consumer Goods Wind Energy Construction $0.6 B $3.5 B $2. have the lowest penetration Market Segment Composite Materials Market $2.00 80. including Transportation.00 60.4B $2.1 B $6.3 B $2.Composites Penetration in Various Market Segments – largest markets.8 B $85.00 30.8 B Structural Materials Market (Steel.2 B $37. Al & Composites) $77.4 B $0.00 40.8 B Composites Penetration 3.00 50.
0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Creating the Equation for Growth .0 Asia ROW 5000.0 GDP in $ Billion over the next 5 years North America Europe 15000.Regional Composites Market Trend: 2006-2011 Composites Shipment Trend (2006-2011) in Various Region in $ Million 7000 Key Insights • Composites industry has seen large Shipment in $ Million 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 North America Europe fluctuations in various markets during the last 5 years due to economic recession • Composites industry performed poorly Asia ROW 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 compared to GDP during the last 5 years.0 10000.0 20000. however the composites industry is forecast to grow at a higher rate than GDP GDP Trend (2006-2011) in Various Regions 25000.0 0.
their presence in composites manufacturing is also increasing GDP GDP BRIC nations Key Insights • Developing nations (defined as 40% 60% BRIC nations 11% BRIC) have substantially increased their participation in the global Developed Countries • Developing nations overall have 89% Developed Countries economy 2000 BRIC Nations 19% Composites Production BRIC Nations 37% Developed Countries 2011 taken a strong role in global composites production • Further BRIC increases are not a matter of whether they will happen.As developing countries play a larger role in the global economy. 81% 53% 63% Developed Countries but when and by how much Creating the Equation for Growth 7 .
Market potential in various countries in 2011 – developed countries have a much larger composite consumption per capita BRIC Mega Trends Composite Potential by Country (2011) Composite Volume Per Capita ($/Capita) (2011) 25 Rapid Growth United States 20 Rapid Urbanization Emerging Middle Class 15 UK Japan France Global Connectivity Increased OEM Production Potential Challenges 10 Italy China Germany 5 Brazil 0 Russia 0 -5 India -20000 20000 40000 60000 Rising Costs Asset Bubbles/Loose Credit GDP Per Capita US$ (2011) Note: Bubble size represents total composites consumption in respective countries Political Instability Creating the Equation for Growth 8 .
Today’s Agenda • Executive Summary • Composites Market Analysis • Opportunity in Automotive Market • Growth Opportunities in 2012 and Beyond • Conclusions • About Lucintel Creating the Equation for Growth 9 .
SMC GMT. Polyurethane SMC. SMC.) are cost effective in volume around 100K per annum due to low tooling cost • High cost of materials and lack of suitable manufacturing processes for high volume applications continue to be limiting factors for future growth • Carbon fiber usage will remain limited to high end & premium segment cars • Advent of lower cost carbon fiber could open a new era for composites in high-volume applications Bumper Beams Fenders Hoods Applications Chassis Roof Hood panels Front Bumper Leaf Spring Creating the Equation for Growth 10 . LWRT SFT LFT.8 B in 2011 • Glass-fiber-reinforced polymer composites (SMC.Composites in Automotive Body Panels/ Parts Interior Headliners Air Intake Manifold Front End Carriers Key Composites Materials Polyurethane. etc. Compression Molding Injection molding. Injection molding Injection molding Injection molding. RIM Compression Molding Compression Molding Key Insights • Global Automotive composites material market was worth $ 2. GMT. LCM Key Manufacturing Processes RIM. LCM SMC. Compression Molding.
8 Air Intake Manifold 2011 2017 Instrument Panel Drivers •Light Weight: GFRP reduces fabricated part weight by 2030% whereas CFRP can reduce by 40-60% •Excellent corrosion resistance •Superior fatigue strength •Styling & system cost saving Challenges • High material cost • Lack of efficient manufacturing process H= High.Weight savings. followed by the US •Emerging economies from APAC & ROW will substantially drive composites usage in automotive applications in the future •Global Automotive Composite Materials market is estimated to grow @ CAGR ~7% to 2017 4. fuel economy and other performance benefits will lead to the growth of composite consumption in Automotive applications Global Automotive Composite Materials Market (2011-17) in $B +7% Key Insight •EU has a significant share of composite usage in automotive applications. M= Medium. L= Low Creating the Equation for Growth 11 .3 2.
. .2 0. Average amount per car (lbs) 2000 600 77 35 Performance /Price ratio (Strength/$) 1. .7 1. Average amount per car (lbs) Creating the Equation for Growth . its relative performance – – + compares well to composites .5 Aluminum While taking into consideration the density of steel.1 0.Price Performance Comparison of Competing Materials for Automotive Applications + Natural Fiber Composites Performance/ Price Ratio Steel Glass Fiber Composites (FRP) Materials Steel Aluminum FRP Natural Fiber Comp.
08 0.15 0.15 Steel Aluminum FRP Natural Fiber Comp.36 1. but for equal volumes. while natural fiber composites have additional strong penetration potential Average amount per car (lbs) Creating the Equation for Growth . glass fiber Steel Aluminum – + – composites outperform steel and aluminum. ….Price Performance Comparison of Competing Materials for Automotive Applications + Natural Fiber Composites Performance/ Price Ratio Glass Fiber Composites (FRP) Materials Average amount per car (lbs) 2000 600 77 35 Performance /Price ratio (Specific strength/$) 0.
Better Acoustic Performance 38% Weight and 16% Cost Reductions Launch Year 2013 2012 Glass Composites 2011-12 Glass Composites 2010-11 Glass Composites Glass Composites 2010 2010 2009-10 2009-10 Glass Composites Glass Composites Fluid Filter Module Creating the Equation for Growth 14 . Trunk Lid Wheel Rims Instrument Panel. Stunning Look Light Weight & Fuel Economy Thermal Requirements for Cooling-System Components Weight Reduction Weight Saving . Better Acoustic Performance Weight Saving .Emerging applications will be a driving factor in the growth of Composites in the Automotive Market Application Roof Compartment Cover.Mercedes Composites Type Glass Composites Glass Composites Driver for Use of Composites Weight Reduction Light Weight. Inner Door Modules Engine-mounted Oil-filter Module Door Module air-intake manifold system air-intake manifold system OEM-Model BMW M6 Convertible Daimler Smart’s ThirdGeneration Electric Drive Land Rover – Evoque Chrysler Pentastar Engines Faurecia’s Jeep Liberty SUV General Motors V6 Engine Volkswagen Gasoline Engines Daimler AGT.
Roof Pillars. Stunning Look Light Weight 2012 Carbon Composites Carbon Composites 2012 2012 Creating the Equation for Growth 15 . Transmission Tunnel. and Mirror Covers Panels on Interior Door Front & Rear Fenders. Trunk Lid and Door Sills OEM-Model BMW i3 McLaren MP4-12C Spider BMW M6 Coupe Callaway Corvette RPO B2K Composites Type Carbon Composites Carbon Composites Carbon Composites Carbon Composites Driver for Use of Composites Light Weight Light Weight Light Weight Light Weight Launch Year 2013 2013 2012 2012 Lexus LFA Lamborghini Aventador LP700-4 LE-C Lamborghini Aventador LP700-4 Lamborghini Murcielago SP670-4 SV Twin Turbo Aston Martin V12 Zagato Carbon Composites Light Weight 2012 Carbon Composites Light Weight 2012 Carbon Composites Light Weight Light Weight. Side Skirts.Increased Interest in Carbon Fiber by Automotive OEMs will significantly drive the growth of the Composites Industry over the next 10 Years Application Composite Passenger Cell Car Roof Car Roof Body Aerodynamics Kit Cabin Frame. and Rear Floor Body Aerodynamics Kit Front and Rear Bumpers. Hood. Bumper Grilles. Floor Panel.
Joint ventures with Carbon Fiber Suppliers by Automotive OEM’s to drive innovation and fuel economy Carbon Fiber Supplier Company Year Type Description Carbon Fiber Supplier Company Year Type Description Carbon Fiber Supplier Toray Daimler 2011 Joint Venture Manufacturing of automotive CFRP parts SGL Carbon BMW 2010 Joint Venture Manufacturing of automotive CFRP parts SGL Carbon Company Year Type Description Carbon Fiber Supplier Company Year Type Description Volkswagen 2011 SGL Stake Acquisition VW bought 8% stake in SGL Carbon Toho Tenax General Motors 2011 Partnership Co-develop technology to improve fuel economy Creating the Equation for Growth 16 .
50 X current price Carbon Fiber Demand ($ M) @ 0.2 M lbs $506 M Other/Regular Cars Global Automotive Production in 2017 92 Million 1% 202.525 M Creating the Equation for Growth 17 .012 M 97 Million 305 M lbs $1.4 M lbs $1.Carbon Fiber Potential in 2017 at 50% current Carbon Fiber Price – Advent of Low Cost Carbon Fiber Would Open New Opportunities Global Automotive Production by Car Type in 2017 Expected Vehicle Production in 2017 Expected use of CF in Cars Carbon Fiber Demand (M lbs) @ 0.50 X current price Super Cars Super Luxury Cars Luxury Cars 6K 100% of cars 1.3 M lbs $7 M 600K 10% 4 Million 101.
Today’s Agenda • Executive Summary • Composites Market Analysis • Opportunity in Automotive Market • Growth Opportunities in 2012 and Beyond • Conclusions • About Lucintel Creating the Equation for Growth 18 .
2% in 2012 • Global composites end product market is expected to grow at 7. Shipment ($ mil) 4.284 851 Marine Wind energy Aerospace Pipe & tank Construction E&E consumer goods Others bounce back of automotive.642 3.000 29.145 798 2011 2017 Creating the Equation for Growth 19 .804 521 2. Europe to see moderate growth.000 5. construction.Global Composite Materials Market by Segment in 2017 Global composite materials distribution ($ mil) by market segments in 2017 Others Consumer goods E&E Key Insights • Lucintel forecasts global composite materials market to grow by 8.775 4.366 4.4% CAGR to 2017 Transportation 17% 7% 14% Marine 3% 3% 14% Wind energy 15% 12% Aerospace 16% Construction Pipe & tank Global composite materials shipment ($ mil) by market segments in 2017 30.689 591 1.432 3.000 15.318 2.956 3.650 2. electronics and consumer goods markets • Asia will drive future growth of composite materials to 2017.928 – Improved financing and availability of credit – Positive sign of healthy growth with gradual Transportation 4.056 20.631 4.000 0 19.000 25.322 2.000 10.398 2.
Composites Market Opportunity in 2012 – 2017: Aerospace & Wind Energy markets show highest growth potential Global Composites Market Opportunity 12% 10% Aerospace Wind energy CAGR (2012-2017) 8% Marine 6% Transportation Construction Consumer goods Pipe & tank 4% Others 2% E&E 0% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Composite Material Market Size (US$ million) 4000 4500 * Size of the bubble describes size of the market in Million lbs Creating the Equation for Growth 20 .
Relative Market Attractiveness by Region: Aerospace and Wind Energy Segments show most attractive markets for growth Market Segment Transportation Marine Aerospace Pipe & tank North America Europe Asia Rest of World Construction Wind Consumer Goods • • Attractiveness comparison is analyzed among different market segments of the same region Attractiveness is analyzed by taking different parameters such as current and future market potentials Medium Low High Low.Medium No Creating the Equation for Growth 21 .
098 46. cumulative installations grew by more than 30% over 2010 Forecast of cumulative wind capacity installation (MW) .2011-2017 +16% 112.US Wind Energy market improved in 2011.990 2011 2017 • Challenges as overall wind market in Current Scenario Slow growth in energy demand has a multiplier effect on new capacity projects which are 50% renewable • Solutions Demand to grow with renewed economic vigor with EIA forecasting 2% CAGR in next 5 years for overall demand in energy • • • Forecast 7% CAGR in natural gas prices in 5 yrs Texas is leading way to new connectivity Political support for renewable energy expected to remain • • • Fall of natural gas prices affecting wind competitiveness Connectivity issues impacting new projects Lack of robust long term federal targets for renewable energy continues to impact investor confidence and credit availability • State level RPS targets are main driver Creating the Equation for Growth 22 .
widely considered a leading – Indonesia economy in adopting wind energy. targeting 5.Why Wind: Even in highly developed wind markets such as Germany. penetration relative to potential is low. while larger markets such as the US have very low penetration levels Key Insights USA + • Both the US and China show strong China Russia potential and low current penetration • Russia has high potential but current Wind energy potential share of wind is <1 percent due to Brazil availability of alternate energy sources • PROFINA program is expected to drive Germany India Mexico South Africa wind power sector in Brazil. potential Creating the Equation for Growth 23 .000 MW installation by 2015 • Germany. is 30% + 15% – currently at 30% penetration Percentage of wind energy penetration vs.
need for higher strength-to-weight ratio material • Mixture of fiber glass and carbon fiber to improve the stiffness and tensile strength in the fiber direction Improved materials • Process: • Process improvement to reduce total production time • Lower Life cycle cost: • Improved reliability • Reduced manufacturing cost • Lower operation and maintenance cost Creating the Equation for Growth 24 . lower process and life cycle cost Design Current Focus areas for Wind blades • Design: • Improved Aerofoil design for better load distribution across the blade cross section area which increases reliability and performance Lower life cycle cost with increased power output • Improved Materials: Process • With increasing length.Wind Market Insights: increasing blade length requires better blade design. improved blade materials.
Composite End Products Market Potential Analysis in 2017 at Different Price Points Applications Residential FRP Wind Blade Auto Parts Composites Potential in 2017 Composites Part Price US$ 85 B @ current price level FRP Door FRP Grating FRP Window US $ 100 B @ 0.85x current price FRP Utility pole Swimming Pool US$ 260 B @ 0.7x current price Creating the Equation for Growth 25 .
Today’s Agenda • Executive Summary • Composites Market Analysis • Opportunity in Automotive Market • Growth Opportunities in 2012 and Beyond • Conclusions • About Lucintel Creating the Equation for Growth 26 .
led by accelerated BRIC growth Weight savings. .players must react accordingly New business models need to be developed to address fast changing complex world –Quarterly demand for composites shipments monitored by Lucintel show significant changes (up to 40% change Quarter by Quarter) in various market segments • • • Companies driven by innovation in developing nations will gain and maintain market share Innovations aimed at lowering cost of end products by 30% have potential to grow composites market by a factor of 3x Significant interest in carbon fiber applications in Automotive Market Creating the Equation for Growth . . .000 known applications Strong growth expected in the foreseeable future. fuel economy and other performance benefits will fuel the growth of composites consumption in Automotive • • • High cost of materials and lack of competitive manufacturing processes for high volume automotive applications continue to be limiting factors for future growth New reality in various emerging countries will change geo-political and geo-economical elements of market.Conclusions • • • Composites industry is sustainable with over 30.
Today’s Agenda • Executive Summary • Composites Market Analysis • Opportunity in Automotive Market • Growth Opportunities in 2012 and Beyond • Conclusions • About Lucintel Creating the Equation for Growth 28 .
About Lucintel Lucintel is the leading global management consulting & market research firm.5-minute movie on Lucintel solutions. Visit http://www.com/imovie/ for a short 3.lucintel. Creating the Equation for Growth 29 . Lucintel has been creating measurable value for over 10 years and for more than thousands of clients in 70 + countries worldwide. Lucintel creates your equation for growth and is committed to actionable results that deliver significant value and long term growth to our clients.
+1-972-636-5056 for further detail or to discuss your project opportunity. USA Email: roy. contact Lucintel at helpdesk@Lucintel. Sales (Market Report).firstname.lastname@example.org@lucintel.com Tel: +1-210-878-7693 (Office) Alan Clark VP. UK Email: alan. Steve Parker VP. Sales (Consulting).com Tel :+44 (0) 7875 708825 Nigel Odea Business Development Manager.email@example.com@lucintel. USA Email: steve. UK Email: nigel.Reach Lucintel For your future business information requirements and cutting edge consulting solutions.com Cell: +1-214-213-2491 Roy Almaguer Global Sales Manager.com Cell: +44 (0) 207 558 8798 Creating the Equation for Growth 30 .com or Tel.
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Lucintel has published +100 multi-client market reports & conducted hundreds of consulting projects across multiple markets Market Reports Aerospace Transportation Marine Opportunity Screening Construction Partner Search and Evaluation Renewable Energy Recreational Composite Materials M&A Consulting Strategic Growth Consulting Benchmarking Market Entry Strategy Creating the Equation for Growth 32 .
. with Project Teams with an appropriate mix between technical and business expertise for results that drive the bottom line Senior level consultants and analysts PhDs and MBAs Masters level engineers Scientists and Industry experts Past projects ranging from start up to multi-national Fortune 500 companies. .. Creating the Equation for Growth 33 .
Deep industry knowledge and insight Quality.Time Savings Cost Savings Neutral Third Party Position for better market info access and interpretation Continuous networking with whole value chain including customers. suppliers and competitors Access to vital. Incomparable data accuracy and integrity Creating the Equation for Growth 34 .Lucintel’s Unique Capability for Your Project Lucintel offers following benefits for your project: • • • • • No Learning Curve . hard to find insights through detailed primary and secondary research and analysis. Accuracy & Depth Speed to Market .
Lucintel has an extensive toolkit to address key strategic questions for increasing your company’s profitability and market presence Key Questions • Is market space / opportunity of current product offerings sufficiently robust? • Market is focus for many: how can my company profitably differentiate? Market Entry Opportunity Screening Voice of Customer Market Opportunities Plant Optimizatio n Product Benchmark • Based on our core skills. where should we focus? • Should we build or buy? Is build even an option? • What game changer actions exist and/or is a more incremental approach best? • What is the order sequence of market entry segments / products? M&A Procureme nt Optimizatio n Creating the Equation for Growth 35 .
Clients around the world value our services Creating the Equation for Growth 36 .
” Genaro Gutierrez. PhD. V. Carlyle. Dow Chemical. Lucintel helped us better align our products with the needs of the market. Airbus. both from a commercial and technology standpoint. here are a few glowing statements from our customers: “We found great value in Lucintel’s work. Managing Partner Creating the Equation for Growth 37 . Manager – Dow Chemical “We bought the Lucintel market report because it is the best report about our industry…a complete and appropriate analysis.P.“ Cesare Andrenacci. Stahlin “Lucintel has its finger on the pulse of the market and drives deep Strategic Insight” Andy Schmidt. MacQuarie Partners. Henkel.Here is What Our Customers Say: From our work with demanding customers like 3M. – Ferretti Group “The insights we gained from Lucintel’s work helped us with our future business plan…a wonderful professional job…” Mike Jackson. Business Dev.
THANK YOU! Creating the Equation for Growth 38 .
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