ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS KAMLOOPS,BC,CANADA Summary
The Election Campaign Week 3: Roundabout Communications British Columbia Election Projection consists of the latest eleven (11) public opinion polls for voter intentions in BC. These eight polls combine for a “sample” of 9,548. If this were an actual scientific opinion poll the Margin of Error would be +/- 1%, 19 times out of 20. Projection Highlights: • • • • Many new polls BC Liberals gain seats and popular vote Riding changes Large Changes in Bubble and Swing Ridings

Due to both the BC Conservative and Green parties not running full slates, their regional results have been weighted to reflect those changes. We will continue with a new projection each week of the election campaign, dependient on polls being released each week. Regards, Chad Moats Owner

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

Projection Methodology Roundabout Communications compiles a “Poll of Polls” for the Electoral Projector. Most polling firms breakdown respondents by region. Therefore, Roundabout has divided our “Poll of Polls” into the following Regions of BC: • • • • Lower Mainland Vancouver Island Interior North

Below is a graph showing all the polls included with final date each poll was in the field and sample size. The bar indicates the weight of each poll out of one (1).

Value of each poll used in projection
March 31,2013- Insight April 10, 2013-Ekos April 13, 2013- Angus April 14,2013- Ipsos April 23,2014 -Justason April 25,2013- Angus 855 987 804 800 600 812

0.03 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.13 0.14 0.12 0.11 0.13 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 Value

April 26,2013- Abacus 1042 April 30,2013- Forum 1055 May 2,2013- Insight May 2,2013- Angus 855 808

May 2,2013- Ipsos 1000

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

Each poll's “n” , or number of respondents/ sample size, is divided by the total number of respondents to get the Initial Weight for each poll in the projector. A Time Penalty is then assessed based on time elapsed since last day of most recent poll. A subjective amount that reduces the value of a single poll over time. Roundabout uses a 0.013 reduction of each poll's weighted value as a percentage of total “N” per week. Each week is counted back from the last day of the most recent poll and rounded to nearest week. The algorithm is: ▪ (Weight of Poll's “N” – Time Penalty ) x Weighting Factor= Real Weight This value is then applied to each poll for each poll's regional, where applicable, results. Applying “Poll of Polls” to Constituency Projections. Each Regional “Poll of Polls” is applied to each constituency result from the 2009 Election. In the cases of Vancouver-Point Grey, Chilliwack-Hope and Port Moody-Coquitlam have all had by-elections. These results have been applied to the projection at a weight of 1/3, with 2009 results being weighted at 2/3. The reasoning for having by-election results weighted lower are due to a few factors that include lower voter turn out, poor track record of incumbent governments in by-elections. However, being the most recent results can not be completely ignored, and must be included in the projection. We feel 1/3 is reasonable. In the case of the four (4) Independent incumbent MLAs. A general rule is applied to Incumbent MLAs that are running again but have left there party since the 2009 election. There are currently 2 of those seeking to be re-elected as an Independent. They have been awarded 60% of their 2009 results as a member of their former party. This effects Abbotsford South and Cariboo North. A high profile former BC Liberal has announced his intentions to run in Abbottsford West. He has been given 10% of the BC Liberal 2009 vote total.

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

Bonuses One of our readers suggested that local bonuses for Star Candidates, Leaders and Incumbents could enhance constituency level projections. We've included in this month's projection. We are interested to here, your suggestions for others that may qualify for a bonus. • • Incumbent Bonus : +15% of projected total ◦ Applied to all incumbents. Party Leader Bonus: +25% ◦ Applied to Vancouver-Point Grey(Liberal),Vancouver-Kingsway (NDP),Langley(Conservative) and Victoria-Beacon Hill (Green) Star Candidate Bonus: +35% ◦ Applied to Langley(Conservative), Peace North (Independent) and Oak Bay-Gordon Head (Green) Projection Changes from March 2013 Province wide % changes

Provincial Results BC Liberal BC NDP BC Green BC Conservative IND Total

Seats Change Vote % Change 28 +3 33.6% +3.7% 53 -3 46.7% -0.4% 0 10.1% -1.6% 0 9.6% -1.7% 4 2.9% +0.1% 85

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

Regional changes

Northern BC Seats Change Vote % Change Lower Mainland Seats Change Vote % Change 16 - 33.8% +3.5% BC Liberal 2 +1 30.7% +3.7% BC Liberal BC NDP 26 - 44.9% -0.6% BC NDP 5 -1 43.8% -2.1% 0 - 7.6% -2.0% BC Green 0 - 8.2% -2.1% BC Green - 8.6% +1.1% BC Conservative 0 - 12.6% +0.3% BC Conservative 0 IND 2 - 2.4% -0.1% IND 1 - 4.6% +0.1% Total 8 Total 44

Interior BC BC Liberal BC NDP BC Green BC Conservative IND Total

Seats Change Vote % Change 8 +2 35.8% +5.9% 9 -2 39.6% -0.5% 0 - 7.3% -4.3% 0 - 11.5% -2.1% 1 - 2.0% +0.1% 18

Vancouver Island Seats Change Vote % Change BC Liberal 2 - 25.0% +1.4% BC NDP 13 - 48.6% BC Green 0 - 17.1% +2.4% BC Conservative 0 - 7.6% -3.1% IND 0 - 1.6% -0.7% Total 15

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

Constituency Level Results

Northern BC Nechako Lakes North Coast Peace River North Peace River South Prince George-Mackenzie Prince George-Valemount Skeena Stikine

BC Lib 35.2% 15.2% 25.2% 47.2% 33.2% 36.7% 16.9% 21.7%

BC NDP BC Green BC Con Ind 32.8% 14.2% 12.0% 62.0% 18.4% 0.0% 16.0% 0.0% 11.5% 42.6% 32.6% 0.0% 15.6% 36.6% 16.0% 10.4% 42.1% 0.0% 16.3% 60.4% 0.0% 18.7% 53.3% 12.7% 8.6%
BC BC NDP Green BC Con Ind 56.1% 10.9% 6.8% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% 83.3% 0.0% 0.0% 63.6% 12.9% 0.0% 42.6% 19.5% 0.0% 24.0% 11.3% 17.2% 26.5% 0.0% 19.8% 37.2% 0.0% 19.8% 29.1% 15.8% 17.1% 29.2% 20.4% 14.5% 30.0% 0.0% 17.3% 49.3% 11.0% 0.0% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 44.1% 49.5% 10.6% 8.2% 44.5% 0.0% 9.5% 37.6% 0.0% 13.3% 46.3% 0.0% 24.9% 28.2% 13.8% 22.1%

Interior BC Columbia River-Revelstoke Kootenay East Kootenay West Nelson-Creston Boundary-Similkameen Kelowna-Lake Country Kelowna-Mission Penticton Shuswap Vernon-Monashee Westside-Kelowna Cariboo-Chilcotin Cariboo North Fraser-Nicola Kamloops-North Thompson Kamloops-South Thompson Chilliwack-Hope Chilliwack

BC Lib 24.0% 54.9% 12.7% 20.9% 34.5% 42.7% 50.2% 39.6% 34.1% 28.0% 50.1% 37.0% 34.1% 28.0% 41.6% 46.3% 23.5% 33.4%

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC
BC Liberal 41.2% 21.2% 29.9% 47.2% 40.0% 27.5% 32.8% 49.8% 22.4% 8.4% 10.5% 37.2% 37.8% 10.2% 48.1% 24.9% 26.7% 44.1% 44.9% 46.9% 30.2% 22.8% 35.7% 31.5% 43.1% 31.7% 18.5% 22.2% 38.7% 37.5% 45.4% 32.5% 16.8% 22.4% 18.2% 45.3% 5.4% 45.6% 58.8% 17.1% 35.6% 45.5% 58.2% 37.9% BC Conserv ative IND 11.3% 0.0% 43.5% 16.7% 11.5% 10.6% 16.7% 11.5% 0.0% 12.4% 15.6% 11.2% 12.0% 11.3% 12.0% 11.1% 10.5% 14.8% 0.0% 11.3% 10.6% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 10.6% 0.0% 11.3% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 10.4% 9.0% 10.6% 0.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 14.3% 14.5% 11.3% 54.6%

Lower Mainland BC Abbotsford-Mission Abbotsford South Abbotsford West Fort Langley-Aldergrove Langley Maple Ridge-Mission Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows Surrey-Cloverdale Surrey-Fleetwood Surrey-Green Timbers Surrey-Newton Surrey-Panorama Surrey-Tynehead Surrey-Whalley Surrey-White Rock Delta North Delta South Richmond Centre Richmond East Richmond-Steveston Burnaby-Deer Lake Burnaby-Edmonds Burnaby-Lougheed Burnaby North Coquitlam-Burke Mountain Coquitlam-Maillardville New Westminster Port Coquitlam Port Moody-Coquitlam Vancouver-Fairview Vancouver-False Creek Vancouver-Fraserview Vancouver-Hastings Vancouver-Kensington Vancouver-Kingsway Vancouver-Langara Vancouver-Mount Pleasant Vancouver-Point Grey Vancouver-Quilchena Vancouver-West End North Vancouver-Lonsdale North Vancouver-Seymour West Vancouver-Capilano West Vancouver-Sea to Sky

NDP 35.3% 31.2% 32.9% 31.0% 33.7% 48.5% 55.3% 35.9% 52.3% 73.7% 75.0% 44.2% 48.3% 76.9% 28.4% 52.3% 16.7% 31.9% 33.1% 28.4% 60.5% 63.8% 52.8% 47.6% 35.9% 56.2% 57.9% 63.6% 52.8% 47.6% 35.2% 47.5% 67.5% 57.7% 65.4% 35.4% 76.0% 37.3% 27.4% 68.5% 37.8% 28.4% 18.3% 26.1%

Green 10.6% 0.0% 7.3% 8.2% 8.1% 9.0% 8.1% 0.0% 7.9% 5.0% 0.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 6.3% 0.0% 8.7% 7.7% 8.0% 7.5% 8.6% 9.4% 7.9% 7.2% 7.6% 10.5% 0.0% 6.3% 11.8% 16.7% 6.4% 12.0% 7.8% 4.7% 7.1% 15.8% 7.4% 11.8% 10.8% 9.6% 10.2% 0.0% 23.1%

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

Vancouver Island Alberni-Pacific Rim Comox Valley Cowichan Valley Nanaimo Nanaimo-North Cowichan North Island Parksville-Qualicum Esquimalt-Royal Roads Juan de Fuca Oak Bay-Gordon Head Saanich North and the Islands Saanich South Victoria-Beacon Hill Victoria-Swan Lake Powell River-Sunshine Coast

BC Liberal 21.3% 7.7% 21.8% 21.9% 21.3% 29.2% 46.4% 18.9% 22.6% 34.1% 35.8% 30.1% 14.6% 15.1% 28.7%

NDP 62.9% 57.7% 42.4% 47.4% 48.2% 54.7% 36.4% 52.9% 57.4% 31.8% 40.0% 41.4% 54.0% 60.8% 56.1%

Green 0.0% 20.8% 19.9% 17.4% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 27.3% 19.1% 22.5% 23.1% 15.4% 29.2% 22.4% 14.3%

BC Conservative 13.4% 11.2% 14.6% 11.4% 11.4% 13.5% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

Projection Analysis The Election Campaign Week 3: Roundabout Communications British Columbia Election Projection's results has produced some small but effective BC Liberal surge. The results is a tighter race in most regions. Once again we have our “Swing Ridings” (trailing by 5% or <) and have added “Bubble Ridings” (trailing by 5%-10%). These are the individual constituencies that can make or break an election., and the BC Liberals are currently winning the contest. Here's our Regional Snapshot, a quick look at the changes, momentum and swings in each of the four regions of BC. Regional Snapshot Northern BC A complete switch from last projection, BC Liberals up and Nechako Lakes returns to their column. Peace River North still looks certain to elect an Independent. BC Interior Biggest gains by BC Liberals in all regions, mostly at expense of minor parties. All previous losses recouped and turning previous BC NDP safe seat into swing ridings Lower Mainland Mainly status quo in Lower Mainland, BC Liberals make some gains in popular vote and expense of BC Green Party, but no seats change hands. Vancouver Island The Island is solidly BC NDP with the exception of one Liberal stronghold and a tight NDP vs Liberal race. Oak Bay-Gordon Head is one of the closest contests in this election. Greens make huge gains and vault into second place in most ridings. Although still out of reach of an MLA.

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

Roundabout Communications BC Election 2013 Swing Ridings
BC NDP Swing Ridings (Trail by 5% or less) The tightening in the polls, as wiped out the majority of NDP swing seats. The BC NDP swing ridings as determined by Roundabout Communications are: • • • Oak Bay-Gordon Head (-2.3 %) Nechako Lakes (-2.4 %) Penticton (-2.4 %)

The BC NDP trails by 5% or less in these three seats. BC NDP Bubble Ridings (Trail by 5-10%) • • • • • • • • Vancouver-Langara (-9.9%) Parksville-Qualicum (-10 %) Kamloops-South Thompson (-8.7%) Chilliwack (-5.2 %) Abbotsford-Mission (-5.9 %) Langley (-6.3%) Coquitlam-Burke Mountain (-7.2 %) Vancouver-Point Grey (-8.3 %)

These eight constituencies represent former BC Liberal safe seats. If current trend towards the BC Liberals continues BC , this election will be closer then expected at the outset.

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC BC Liberal Swing Ridings (Trail by 5% or less) The BC Liberals have managed to secure a all there swing seats. Closing the overall gap with the BC NDP turning a predicted rout into a respectable showing and possibly their leader may keep her job. The BC Liberal swing ridings as determined by Roundabout Communications are: • Saanich North & Islands (-4.2 %) • Abbotsford West (-3%) • Surrey-Panorama (-5 %) • North Vancouver-Lonsdale (-2.2 %) • Kamloops-North Thompson (-2.9%) • Vernon-Monashee (-1.2 %) • Prince George-Mackenzie (-3.4 %) BC Liberal Bubble Ridings (Trail by 5-10%) • • Prince George-Valemount (-5.4 %) Boundary-Similkameen (-8.1 %)

The BC Liberals Liberals have managed to move all bubble ridings into swing ridings and have moved all swing ridings into their column. Winning may not be in the cards but a strong Liberal opposition is looking more likely then even two weeks ago. BC Conservative Swing Ridings (Trail by 5% or less) Due to not running a full slate in 20099 the BC Conservative party is difficult to project Currently there are no BC Conservative Swing or Bubble Ridings Please visit our website for BC Conservatives best chances to win,place or show. BC Green Swing Ridings (Trail by 5% or less) There are no BC Green Swing Ridings, or Bubble Ridings. Please visit our website for BC Green Party best chances to win,place or show.

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

For Further Information Contact: Chad Moats,Owner
roundaboutcommunications@gmail.com

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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

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