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Property Intelligence Report

April 2013

Summary Notes

Home price growth continued in March, foreclosures continued to decrease, and sales slowed.
The economy provided mixed signals about the future direction of housing.
We discuss the effect of foreclosure decreases on home price growth.

March Housing Performance


Housing performance in March saw improvements in home prices and decreases in foreclosures in an
increasing number of counties. However, the worsening trend in sales from previous months continued.
While sales have declined over recent months, they are higher than prior year sales in most counties.

Home price growth was positive in 38 of the 42 reported counties over the last month.
Home price growth was positive in 36 of the 42 reported counties over the last quarter.
Home price growth was positive in 37 of the 42 reported counties over the year.
Sales increased in 10 of the 42 reported counties over the last month.
Sales increased in 6 of the 42 reported counties over the last quarter.
Sales increased in 28 of the 42 reported counties over the last year.
Foreclosures decreased in 28 of the 42 reported counties over the last month.
Foreclosures decreased in 30 of the 42 reported counties over the last quarter.
Foreclosures decreased in 29 of the 42 reported counties over the last year.

Housing Outlook
Economic recovery and job growth prospects were positive at the start of each of the last three years.
These signs of growth were followed by poor numbers in the spring and summer. The pattern appears
to be repeating in 2013 as employment grew by a dismal 88,000 jobs in March. Concerns about the
continued strength of the recovery and job security, tax increases, and uncertainty about domestic fiscal
issues are dampening economic growth and will eventually contribute to eventual reductions in demand
for housing.

Property Intelligence Report


April 2013

Factor
Demand
for Housing

Comment
The level of economic activity

Current Situation
The March employment report was
disappointing.
Employment rose by only 88,000 jobs.
Strict mortgage credit requirements
continue.

Supply of
Housing

The supply of housing for sale on the market

Housing starts and permits increased,


but given the recent low levels of
construction activity, these increases
are back toward a more normal level
of construction.

Uncertainty

Housing investors face heightened


uncertainty from national and international
sources. In the presence of uncertainty,
individuals have a difficult time valuing real
estate, dampening the activity of both
buyers and sellers.

Several factors lead to uncertainty


about the persistence of housing
market improvements.
The rate of job creation has been
unsteady.
Domestic fiscal issues, including the
resolution of the current budget
sequester and reaching the debt
ceiling again in the near future.
Longer term fiscal uncertainty remains
due to unsustainable deficit levels.
Euro Zone fiscal issues continue
unresolved.

The Effect of Foreclosure on Home Prices


The chart below compares home price growth in markets where foreclosures have been increasing for
the latest month, quarter, and year with home price growth in markets where foreclosures have been
decreasing over the same period. Its not surprising to note that decreasing foreclosures is correlated
with higher home price growth.

Property Intelligence Report


April 2013

Effect of Foreclosures on Home Price Growth


10%
Latest Month

Latest Quarter

Latest Year

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%
Increasing Foreclosures

Decreasing Foreclosures

Source: DataQuick

What is surprising is that the markets with decreasing foreclosures and elevated home price growth
include markets in California, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada that experienced the worst of the housing
downturn. Its interesting how quickly prices have started to recover in these markets. This pattern of
behavior is behind these home price patterns.
1.
2.
3.
4.

High levels of foreclosure sales attracted investors to purchase foreclosures at a discount.


Foreclosure inventories declined and foreclosure sales decreased.
Investors bid on a shrinking supply of properties.
Home prices rose.

While, to date, these markets have demonstrated tremendous resiliency, the next step is that investors
will move to other markets and the rate of home price growth for these markets will return to rates that
can be sustained by the underlying economies in these markets.

Property Intelligence Report


March2013
Monthly Detail Report
Selected Counties
Single-Family
State
AZ
AZ
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CO
CT
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
GA
IL
IL
MA
MD
MI
MO
MO
NC
NV
NY
NY
OH
OH
OR
TN
TX
TX
UT
VA
WA

County
MARICOPA
PIMA
ALAMEDA
CONTRA COSTA
LOS ANGELES
ORANGE
RIVERSIDE
SACRAMENTO
SAN BERNARDINO
SAN DIEGO
SANTA CLARA
DENVER
FAIRFIELD
BROWARD
DUVAL
HILLSBOROUGH
LEE
MIAMI-DADE
ORANGE
PALM BEACH
PINELLAS
FULTON
COOK
DUPAGE
MIDDLESEX
MONTGOMERY
OAKLAND
JACKSON
ST. LOUIS
MECKLENBURG
CLARK
QUEENS
SUFFOLK
CUYAHOGA
FRANKLIN
MULTNOMAH
SHELBY
DALLAS
HARRIS
SALT LAKE
FAIRFAX
KING

Metro
Phoenix
Tuscon
Oakland
Richmond
Los Angeles
Orange
Riverside
Sacramento
San Bernardino
San Diego
San Jose
Denver
New York
Ft. Lauderdale
Jacksonville
Tampa
Ft. Myers
Miami
Orlando
Palm Beach
Clearwater
Atlanta
Chicago
Chicago
Boston
Washington, DC
Detroit
Kansas City
St. Louis
Charlotte
Las Vegas
New York
Long Island
Cleveland
Columbus
Portland
Memphis
Dallas
Houston
Salt Lake
Washington, DC
Seattle

Notes:
1. Source: DataQuick
2. Reported sales data do not include new construction.

Latest Month
1.46%
0.46%
0.65%
1.04%
0.69%
0.45%
0.43%
1.20%
0.93%
0.49%
1.34%
0.14%
-0.52%
0.61%
0.03%
0.27%
0.90%
0.37%
0.66%
1.03%
0.31%
0.02%
0.08%
-0.41%
0.15%
0.38%
0.94%
0.57%
0.57%
0.18%
0.90%
0.14%
0.04%
-0.19%
0.31%
0.71%
-0.08%
0.17%
0.17%
0.46%
0.11%
0.57%

Home Price Growth Rate


Latest Quarter
4.71%
1.19%
3.11%
2.74%
2.43%
1.82%
1.89%
3.58%
2.62%
1.91%
3.31%
-0.73%
-1.45%
1.73%
0.62%
0.84%
2.65%
1.45%
2.14%
1.91%
1.17%
-0.10%
0.05%
-1.31%
0.19%
1.25%
3.38%
1.28%
1.28%
0.48%
3.25%
0.17%
0.00%
-0.25%
0.81%
2.46%
-0.19%
0.24%
0.24%
1.62%
0.52%
1.77%

Latest Year
23.70%
8.00%
13.05%
13.59%
10.51%
8.69%
9.92%
16.82%
11.43%
10.41%
13.47%
0.86%
-6.31%
8.09%
4.56%
3.32%
11.76%
6.05%
8.81%
7.08%
6.00%
-0.64%
0.17%
-3.68%
1.31%
4.61%
15.26%
3.91%
3.91%
1.64%
14.83%
0.03%
0.40%
-2.78%
4.14%
8.41%
-2.12%
1.14%
1.14%
7.23%
3.27%
9.33%

Latest Month
-5.45%
6.29%
-0.84%
-25.26%
-32.00%
-39.17%
-36.38%
-37.47%
-33.66%
-12.93%
-41.03%
-35.19%
-39.58%
-6.84%
-40.03%
26.75%
47.89%
-6.68%
-22.14%
-14.46%
13.94%
0.00%
-14.03%
14.00%
293.33%
-6.67%
-4.14%
-28.19%
-45.88%
55.88%
-0.51%
-3.91%
-26.67%
23.47%
35.69%
34.48%
43.12%
-26.94%
-41.19%
12.09%
0.00%
-5.04%

Foreclosure Growth Rate


Latest Quarter
-35.10%
-33.95%
-31.79%
-36.89%
-38.64%
-41.85%
-48.86%
-42.37%
-41.99%
-31.64%
-37.84%
-44.44%
-40.82%
-14.34%
-39.95%
124.03%
41.91%
-7.07%
10.60%
-17.88%
10.59%
-21.51%
-4.88%
-5.00%
321.43%
12.00%
-4.14%
-17.69%
-45.88%
15.22%
-13.72%
0.66%
-26.67%
6.09%
-15.03%
-29.09%
15.84%
-37.62%
-36.77%
-0.97%
0.00%
48.31%

Latest Year
-48.36%
-15.08%
-55.81%
-56.04%
-50.00%
-59.63%
-59.96%
-56.13%
-54.00%
-48.31%
-68.06%
-41.99%
-3.33%
-14.17%
15.10%
13.78%
5.46%
15.80%
-18.93%
-27.74%
40.30%
-31.30%
11.11%
20.42%
321.43%
-56.92%
-23.22%
-26.44%
-36.11%
20.45%
-10.14%
-58.12%
266.67%
102.81%
84.52%
-62.86%
-6.40%
-45.85%
-42.15%
-47.69%
-49.09%
44.26%

Latest Month
-2.77%
0.98%
-35.85%
-2.83%
-42.97%
-44.24%
-16.32%
-33.05%
-14.73%
-2.67%
-60.23%
-46.92%
-13.05%
-31.05%
-20.88%
-13.66%
9.67%
-9.47%
0.23%
7.62%
-5.85%
0.00%
-18.41%
-31.73%
46.58%
-40.79%
-65.14%
-19.03%
-25.43%
-78.60%
0.00%
-8.91%
3.28%
-25.24%
-20.09%
-25.43%
8.15%
-18.73%
-9.52%
-23.78%
0.00%
-33.42%

Sales Growth Rate


Latest Quarter
-17.79%
-20.29%
-47.03%
-31.62%
-20.23%
-21.60%
-14.63%
-23.85%
-19.12%
-22.79%
-36.43%
-33.64%
-6.86%
-1.98%
-17.27%
0.56%
-1.80%
-8.46%
13.07%
2.08%
-13.56%
-4.75%
-15.50%
-34.59%
23.36%
-24.25%
-38.77%
0.00%
-20.27%
-51.40%
-16.58%
-6.26%
4.01%
-32.51%
-34.79%
-21.22%
-12.95%
-17.91%
-19.39%
-25.32%
-58.96%
-42.12%

Latest Year
-14.66%
0.73%
-5.08%
-12.18%
-3.85%
0.90%
-17.49%
-16.32%
-14.49%
-3.14%
-15.45%
0.13%
14.57%
13.87%
18.05%
16.55%
-1.07%
16.51%
9.53%
14.04%
24.54%
21.78%
21.03%
14.32%
27.83%
10.87%
-13.08%
9.29%
10.60%
-36.18%
28.67%
-31.95%
31.99%
8.46%
17.39%
5.39%
13.12%
5.93%
13.21%
-6.41%
16.05%
9.60%

Property Intelligence Report


March2013
Monthly Detail Report
Selected Counties
Single-Family
State
AZ
AZ
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CO
CT
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
GA
IL
IL
MA
MD
MI
MO
MO
NC
NV
NY
NY
OH
OH
OR
TN
TX
TX
UT
VA
WA

County
MARICOPA
PIMA
ALAMEDA
CONTRA COSTA
LOS ANGELES
ORANGE
RIVERSIDE
SACRAMENTO
SAN BERNARDINO
SAN DIEGO
SANTA CLARA
DENVER
FAIRFIELD
BROWARD
DUVAL
HILLSBOROUGH
LEE
MIAMI-DADE
ORANGE
PALM BEACH
PINELLAS
FULTON
COOK
DUPAGE
MIDDLESEX
MONTGOMERY
OAKLAND
JACKSON
ST. LOUIS
MECKLENBURG
CLARK
QUEENS
SUFFOLK
CUYAHOGA
FRANKLIN
MULTNOMAH
SHELBY
DALLAS
HARRIS
SALT LAKE
FAIRFAX
KING

Metro
Phoenix
Tuscon
Oakland
Richmond
Los Angeles
Orange
Riverside
Sacramento
San Bernardino
San Diego
San Jose
Denver
New York
Ft. Lauderdale
Jacksonville
Tampa
Ft. Myers
Miami
Orlando
Palm Beach
Clearwater
Atlanta
Chicago
Chicago
Boston
Washington, DC
Detroit
Kansas City
St. Louis
Charlotte
Las Vegas
New York
Long Island
Cleveland
Columbus
Portland
Memphis
Dallas
Houston
Salt Lake
Washington, DC
Seattle

Notes:
1. Source: DataQuick
2. Reported sales data do not include new construction.

Current Month
126
111
118
116
156
147
117
106
133
129
141
119
109
122
110
113
112
130
111
117
117
127
96
104
121
149
84
96
96
112
91
134
134
86
95
139
88
121
121
112
156
134

Home Price Indices (Feb 2002 = 100)


Previous Month
Prior Quarter
125
121
111
110
117
114
115
113
155
152
146
144
116
115
104
102
132
130
128
126
139
137
118
119
110
111
121
120
110
110
113
112
111
110
129
128
110
109
116
115
117
116
127
128
96
96
105
106
121
121
148
147
83
82
95
94
95
94
112
111
90
88
134
134
134
134
86
86
95
95
138
136
88
88
121
121
121
121
112
110
156
156
134
132

Prior Year
102
103
104
102
141
135
106
90
120
117
124
118
117
113
106
109
101
122
102
110
110
128
96
108
120
142
73
92
92
110
79
134
134
88
92
128
90
120
120
105
151
123

Current Month
1041
321
118
142
597
132
404
272
402
229
46
105
29
436
442
578
386
447
334
349
376
281
760
171
59
28
324
242
230
53
195
614
11
505
441
39
395
320
564
102
28
264

Foreclosures
Previous Month
1101
302
119
190
878
217
635
435
606
263
78
162
48
468
737
456
261
479
429
408
330
281
884
150
15
30
338
337
425
34
196
639
15
409
325
29
276
438
959
91
28
278

Prior Quarter
1604
486
173
225
973
227
790
472
693
335
74
189
49
509
736
258
272
481
302
425
340
358
799
180
14
25
338
294
425
46
226
610
15
476
519
55
341
513
892
103
28
178

Prior Year
2016
378
267
323
1194
327
1009
620
874
443
144
181
30
508
384
508
366
386
412
483
268
409
684
142
14
65
422
329
360
44
217
1466
3
249
239
105
422
591
975
195
55
183

Current Month
6065
916
756
849
4010
1528
2433
1437
1874
1833
699
520
567
1736
958
1259
1292
1447
1327
1510
1094
1074
2021
542
657
782
895
883
1113
500
1104
3009
335
840
876
586
933
1975
3678
820
541
1194

Sales
Previous Month
6233
907
1027
873
5733
2204
2830
1912
2150
1882
1120
764
641
2275
1158
1431
1167
1584
1324
1395
1158
1074
2393
714
351
1101
1478
1051
1396
893
1104
3277
324
1052
1052
735
857
2345
4028
1015
541
1593

Prior Quarter
7174
1100
1239
1125
5170
2004
2847
1893
2285
2262
1107
777
611
1781
1158
1251
1313
1581
1154
1481
1251
1125
2392
789
575
1049
1468
883
1396
959
1287
3214
322
1182
1242
742
1044
2395
4459
1077
860
1865

Prior Year
7117
908
819
986
4209
1510
2931
1746
2205
1904
870
519
478
1489
749
1052
1306
1186
1217
1302
787
829
1518
429
497
668
1087
801
965
847
735
4036
232
740
660
546
796
1833
3089
889
403
1015