Ecological Risk-Based Decision-Making Model

Submission on the strategic review of the impacts of underground mining in the Wyong LGA

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Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION................................................................... 3 PROCESS ........................................................................... 3 STREAM RISK MATRIX.......................................................... 6 SWAMP/WETLAND RISK MATRIX............................................ 7 CONSEQUENCE TABLES........................................................ 8
STREAMS ...........................................................................................8 SWAMPS AND WETLANDS .........................................................................9

APPLICATION OF THE MODEL ...............................................10

WORKED EXAMPLE 1 - LONGWALL PANEL 50M FROM PERENNIAL RIVER ................... 10 WORKED EXAMPLE 2 - LONGWALL PANEL DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH STREAM ............... 12 WORKED EXAMPLE 3 - LONGWALL PANEL 280M AWAY FROM STREAM ..................... 14

DEFINITIONS .....................................................................16

Submission on the strategic review of the impacts of underground mining in the Wyong LGA

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Introduction
DECC has developed an Ecological Risk-Based Decision-Making Model, in consultation with subsidence and risk assessment experts, as a proposed means for protecting high value natural features from subsidence impacts. Note: The model will require further development and is presented here as a conceptual framework rather than a finished product. Following is a: a description of the process a risk matrix for streams and swamps risk matrix consequence tables definitions of all terms used example application of the model on current longwall mining project areas.

Process
Given the uncertainties in the current understanding of the impacts of subsidence to natural features, the model entails a qualitative risk assessment approach as outlined. At present, current data available is more amenable to a qualitative risk assessment. However, as the body of monitoring data grows, quantitative assessments may become preferred. It is intended that the model would be used by a risk assessment panel, with expertise in: water dependent ecosystems subsidence risk assessment

The model process involves: 1. the identification of natural features or ecological assets that have been identified as falling with the longwall mining project area Separate risk matrix tables have been developed for the following key types of natural feature or ecological asset: streams swamps/wetlands. 2. determining ecological value by assessing: hydrological character, habitat features and biodiversity values These criteria are set out in a dichotomous key to enable the user to determine an overall relative ranking of ecological value. Refer to the risk matrices presented below.

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3. the determination of the adverse consequence of impact (see Consequence Tables below) The determination of consequence is undertaken by assigning scores/values to the functional values of an ecological asset: hydrological character, habitat features and biodiversity values. 4. the determination of the likelihood of an impact with the adverse consequence stated Likelihood Rating is rated as: High = 3 Medium = 2 Low = 1 The likelihood will be a result of the assessment of: predicted subsidence tilt and strain upsidence and closure whether or not the longwall panel passes directly under a stream (or is within its angle of draw) distance the longwall is away from the feature being assessed. The determination of likelihood of subsidence should be as quantitative as possible given existing data and confidence levels. It is suggested that two models could be used in determining the likelihood to account for discrepancies between models used across the longwall mining industry. Model results should be peer reviewed by external subsidence experts for validation. Additionally, the model(s) used should be validated/confirmed by comparing results with all available data and case studies from previous mining.

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As a general rule, one or more of the following definitions can be applied in assigning likelihoods, based on data quality available.
Likelihood Quality of underpinning data available

High

Medium

Low

Subjective definition, where judgement is required due to lack of data and predictive capability. Statistical definition, where predictive modelling is possible using extrapolation from a database of experience. Empirical definition, where empirical evidence from the past is sufficiently sound so as to make assumptions about the future.

The stated adverse consequence is reasonably foreseeable and not unlikely to occur. Quantitative models predict that the stated adverse consequence has a significant ( 5%) chance of occurrence. Experience from similar scenarios has shown that the stated adverse consequence could have occurred at a significant frequency ( 5% of comparable observations where n 20).

The stated adverse consequence is possibly but unlikely to occur.

The stated adverse consequence is not reasonably foreseeable or impossible. Quantitative models predict that the stated adverse consequence is highly unlikely (< 0.5%) chance of occurrence. Experience from similar scenarios has shown that the stated adverse consequence could have not occurred previously and n 100.

Quantitative models predict that the stated adverse consequence has a possible ( 0.5% to 5%) chance of occurrence. Experience from similar scenarios has shown that the stated adverse consequence could have occurred ( 0.5% to 5% of comparable observations where where n 20).

5. Risk Rating: Given Risk = Likelihood x Consequence 6. the determination of the Management Measure to be employed: Prevent Impact, Minimise Impact and Proceed with Caution The Management Measure is determined by the Risk Rating score. The associated relationship between Management Measure and Risk Rating is demonstrated in the following table. Risk High Medium Low Risk Category Scores 65-90 35-65 10-35 Management Measure Prevent Impact Minimise Impact Proceed with Caution

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Stream Risk Matrix

Asset Hydrological Character Habitat Features Biodiversity Values Community Measure Ecological Value Consequence - Refer to Consequence Tables Likelihood of Impact Risk Rating Management Measure

stream

perennial

rock bars, pools, riffles and/or macrophyte beds that provide aquatic habitat

threatened species and/ iconic species or present or high diversity

no threatened species present no rock bars, pools, riffles or macrophyte beds that provide aquatic habitat

and

no iconic species or high diversity

threatened species and/ iconic species or present or high diversity

D eterm ine Likelihood Score (H igh, M edium , Low )

no threatened species present rock bars, pools, riffles and/or macrophyte beds that provide habitat

and

no iconic species or high diversity

Prevent Impact (High Risk Rating)

D eterm ine C onsequence (H igh, M edium , Low )

D eterm ine R isk R ating (H igh, M edium , Low )

intermittent

threatened species and/ iconic species or present or high diversity

no threatened species present no rock bars, pools, riffles or macrophyte beds that provide habitat

and

no iconic species or high diversity

Minimise Impact (Medium Risk Rating)

threatened species and/ iconic species or present or high diversity

no threatened species present rock bars, pools, riffles and/or macrophyte beds that provide habitat

and

no iconic species or high diversity

ephemeral

threatened species and/ iconic species or present or high diversity no threatened species present no iconic species or high diversity

Proceed with Caution (Low Risk Rating)

and

no rock bars, pools, riffles or macrophyte beds that provide habitat

threatened species and/ iconic species or present or high diversity

no threatened species present

and

no iconic species or high diversity

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Swamp/Wetland Risk Matrix

Asset Hydrological Character Habitat Features Biodiversity Values Community Measure migratory species habitat or high diversity no migratory species habitat, low diversity migratory species habitat or high diversity no migratory species habitat, low diversity Ecological Value Consequence Refer to Consequence Tables Likelihood of Impact Risk Rating Management Measure

wetlands and swamps

open water

large, or part of a system of wetlands

threatened and/ species present or

no threatened and species present

Prevent Impact (High Risk Rating)

Determ ine Consequence Score (High, M edium , Low)

Determ ine Consequence (High, M edium , Low)

Determ ine Risk Rating (High, M edium , Low)

small isolated wetland

threatened and/ species present or

no threatened and species present

swamp that feeds perennial stream

part of a significant cluster of swamps

iconic threatened and/ species habitat species or or present high diversity threatened iconic and/ species habitat species or or present high diversity

Minimise Impact (Medium Risk Rating)

isolated swamp

swamp that feeds intermittent or ephemeral stream

part of a significant cluster of swamps

threatened iconic and/ species habitat species or or present high diversity

Proceed with Caution (Low Risk Rating)

isolated swamp

threatened iconic and/ species habitat species or or present high diversity

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Consequence Tables
Streams
Table 1.1 Hydrological Character Stream Flow Severity Perennial Intermittent Ephemeral Rating 3 2 1 Duration of Potential Impact Permanent Year Month Day Rating 4 3 2 1 Severity Complete loss of surface flow Partial loss of surface flow No detectable loss Rating 3 2 1 Extent of Upstream Catchment Area Large Medium Small Rating 3 2 1 Total Rating

Table 1.2 Biodiversity Values Severity Complete loss of stream dependent species Partial loss of stream dependent species No detectable loss of stream dependent species Table 1.3 Habitat Features Severity Complete loss of habitat Partial loss of habitat No detectable loss of habitat Rating 3 2 1 Duration of Potential Impact Permanent Year Month Day Rating 4 3 2 1 Extent of Potential Impact Large reach/multiple habitats Medium reach/multiple habitats Small reach/1 habitat Rating 3 2 1 Total Rating Rating 3 2 1 Threatened Species Yes No Rating 2 1 Endemic to Region Yes No Rating 2 1 Total Rating

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Swamps and wetlands

Table 2.1 Hydrological Character Swamp/Wetland Type Swamp with Open Water Swamp without Open Water Rating 2 1 Duration of Potential Impact Permanent Year Month Day Rating 4 3 2 1 Severity Fracturing of underlying bedrock, desiccation, gullying and complete loss of wetland Fracturing of underlying bedrock, desiccation, gullying and partial loss of wetland No detectable loss Table 2.2 Biodiversity Values Severity Complete loss of swamp dependent species Partial loss of swamp dependent species No detectable loss of swamp dependent species 2 1 Table 2.3 Habitat Features Severity Complete loss of habitat Partial loss of habitat No detectable loss of habitat Rating 3 2 1 Duration Permanent Year Month Day Rating 4 3 2 1 Extent Large swamp/multiple habitats Medium swamp/multiple habitats Small swamp/fewer habitats Rating 3 2 1 Total Rating Rating 3 Yes No 2 1 Yes No 2 1 Threatened Species Rating Endemic to Region Rating Total Rating Rating 3 Extent of Swamp Large Medium Small 2 1 Rating 3 2 1 Total Rating

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Application of the model

Worked Example 1 - Longwall panel 50m from perennial river
Consequence to Hydrological Character see Consequence Table 1.1 Consequence Attribute Stream flow Duration Severity Extent Decision Perennial Month Partial loss Large Total Score Score 3 2 2 3 10

Consequence to Biodiversity see Consequence Table 1.2 Consequence Attribute Severity Threatened Species Endemic Decision No detectable loss Yes (Macquarie perch) Yes Total Score Score 1 2 2 5

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Consequence to Habitat (Geomorpholical features see Consequence Table 1.3 Consequence Attribute Severity Duration Extent Decision No detectable loss Month Small reach Total Score Consequence Score* * Consequence Score (Hydrological + Biodiversity + Habitat = 10+5+4=19) Dynamic Range: Maximum Overall Consequence Score = 30. Minimum Overall Consequence Score = 10 Score 1 2 1 4 19

Likelihood Rating - rated as: High = reasonably foreseeable or likely = 3 Medium = possible but unlikely = 2 Low = not reasonably foreseeable or impossible = 1 For this worked example (longwall panel 50m from river) The likelihood assigned was Medium, a score of 2. Given Risk = Likelihood x Consequence, the Risk Rating = 19 x 2 = 38 Dynamic Range: Maximum Overall Risk Rating Score = 90. Minimum Overall Risk Rating Score = 10. In this approach because the Risk Rating was assessed at 38 it would have fallen in Medium category, which leads to a Minimise Impact Management Measure.

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Worked Example 2 - Longwall panel directly underneath stream

Consequence to River connectivity see Consequence Table 1.1 Consequence Attribute Stream flow Duration Severity Extent Total Score Decision Perennial Permanent Complete loss Medium Score 3 4 3 2 12

Consequence to Biodiversity see Consequence Table 1.2 Consequence Attribute Severity Threatened Species Endemic Total Score Decision Complete loss Yes (Macquarie perch) Yes Score 3 2 2 7

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Consequence to Habitat (Geomorphological features see Consequence Table 1.3 Consequence Attribute Severity Duration Extent Total Score Consequence Score Likelihood For this worked example (longwall panel directly underneath a stream), likelihood is scored 3. Given Risk = Likelihood x Consequence, the Risk Rating = 27 x 3 = 81 In this approach because the overall risk rating was assessed at 81 it would have fallen in High Risk category and the Prevent Impact Management Measure. This would seem appropriate given that the longwall panel goes directly underneath a stream and is likely (on the basis of past case examples) to cause major damage. Decision Partial loss Permanent Medium reach Score 2 4 2 8 27

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Worked Example 3 - Longwall panel 280m away from stream

Consequence to River connectivity see Consequence Table 1.1 Consequence Attribute Stream flow Duration Severity Extent Total Score Decision Perennial Month Partial loss Large Score 3 2 2 3 10

Consequence to Biodiversity see Consequence Table 1.2 Consequence Attribute Severity Threatened Species Endemic Total Score Decision Partial loss Yes (Dragonfly) Yes Score 2 2 2 6

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Consequence to Habitat (Geomorphological features see Consequence Table 1.3 Consequence Attribute Decision Score

Severity Duration Extent Total Score Consequence Score

Partial loss Month Small reach

2 2 1 5 21

Likelihood For this worked example (longwall panel 280m from centre of a stream), the likelihood is scored 1. Given Risk = Likelihood x Consequence the Risk Rating = 21 x 1 = 21 In this approach because the overall risk rating was assessed at 21 it would have fallen in Low Risk category and the Proceed with Caution Management Measure. This would seem appropriate given that the longwall panel is 280m away from the stream and predicted impacts on the stream are low.

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Definitions
asset: consequences: AU ecologically important community, or a species. landscape feature, an ecological

The effect of subsidence impacts (loss of surface water, loss of swamp groundwater, pollution of water, etc.) to the asset being assessed, ranked numerically based on severity and persistence of impact. up to 24 hours A relative (high, medium or low) rating applied to sites based on the presence of endangered species or ecological communities, the presence of high biodiversity or iconic species, and the importance of the site as habitat for a range of species. A stream that flows only after rainfall. Within channel features such as rock bars, pools and riffles. Surface water flow throughout reaches of a stream that connects habitats and allows fish and invertebrate migration. A water flow regulation function. Examples are: rock bars creating pools upstream from the bar; and swamps storing rainwater for slow release as perennial flow to streams. A species that the community cares about, for example, Platypus. A stream that stops flowing during dry periods. These streams have connectivity during and for some time after rainfall. Areas of predicted high conservation value for forest faunal assemblages, endemic forest vertebrates or endemic invertebrates; spatially depicted as a merging of mapped assemblage hubs, assemblage hot spots and centres of endemism. > 1 km > 1 Ha The relative likelihood of an impact with the stated adverse consequence occurring, taking into account past knowledge and experience. This will be calculated by the amount of subsidence predicted applied to the susceptibility of the feature to subsidence impacts (for example, rock bars and swamp beds are particularly susceptible to fracturing if subsidence and/or upsidence exceeds certain thresholds). The measure that is required to be applied for each level of risk. 100m to 1km 200m2 to 1Ha To minimise any impact to an ecological asset, as low as is reasonably practicable. This may be achieved by a range of measures related to mine geometry and mining methods. 1 to 31 days

day: ecological value:

ephemeral stream: habitat features: hydrological character: hydrologic function: iconic species: intermittent stream: key habitats

large reach: large swamp/wetland: likelihood of impact:

management measure: medium reach: medium swamp/wetland: minimise impact:

month:

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multiple habitats: perennial stream:

Pools, riffles, macrophyte beds, cascades A stream that flows all year round except during drought. Note: the perenniality of a stream can be inferred by the macroinvertebrates present. More than 12 months (irreversible) To prevent impact to the asset that would affect its ecological values. For example, for a stream it would mean to prevent impact to flow connectivity, rock bars and pools, species diversity and/or threatened or iconic species. It may be achieved by a range of measures related to mine layout, mine geometry and mining methods. The management measure monitor means to proceed with mining while regularly monitoring for any impacts to the asset, and to have triggers and management measures in place in the event of an unintended or unpredicted impact being detected. The risk rating for an asset with particular features is calculated by multiplying the likelihood of impact by the ecological consequence . < 100m < 200m2 The term stream is used to encompass all flowing natural waters, regardless of size. Species that are listed as endangered, vulnerable or extinct on the Schedules of the Threatened Species Conservation Act 1995 and the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999. Those areas that are inundated or saturated by surface or ground water at a frequency and duration sufficient to support, and that under normal circumstances do support, a prevalence of flora and fauna typically adapted for life in saturated soil conditions. Wetlands generally include swamps, marshes, bogs and similar areas. 1 to 12 months

permanent: prevent impact:

proceed with caution:

risk rating: small reach: small swamp/wetland: stream: threatened species: wetland or swamp:

Year:

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