marché du livre numérique en Grande Bretagne étude Nielsen .pdf | E Books | Business

UNDERSTANDING THE MIGRATION TO E-B00KS

CURRENT AND FUTURE TRENDS

David Walter 16 May 2013

Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

• Context
• Consumer Confidence and International Print Book Markets

• The UK e-book market
• E-book penetration and the rate of change • The value of the e-book and print book market • E-book pricing and the consequences for print book prices

2

CONTEXT

Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

4

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
Q1 2013 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index
160

140

120
120

111 94 93 Global average 90 79 75 70

100

93

80

60

47
Copyright ©2013 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

44

40

20

0

Base : All respondents n=28820
Consumer Confidence Survey – Q1 – 2013 Field Dates: February 17 to March 8, 2013 5

BOOKSCAN’S NINE INTERNATIONAL TERRITORIES
A combined total of over 1 billion sales were measured in 2012

Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

6

BOOKSCAN’S NINE INTERNATIONAL TERRITORIES
Only India showed year on year growth in 2012 – but the UK saw a shallow decline

-7.2% -10.3%

-3.4% -7.0%

-9.3%

Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

16.0%

-6.3% -8.8% -3.7%
7

BOOKSCAN’S NINE INTERNATIONAL TERRITORIES
Only India showed year on year growth in 2012 – but the UK saw a shallow decline

-7.2% -10.3%

-3.4% -7.0%

-9.3%

Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

?
-8.8%

16.0%

-6.3%

-3.7%
8

INTERNATIONAL SECTOR TRENDS
The Non-Fiction sector is seeing the sharpest declines in major territories
Year-on-year volume sales change across broad sectors

US

UK

ROI

Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

IT

AUS

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0% Total Fiction

-5.0% Non Fiction

0.0% Children's

5.0%

10.0%
9

THE UK E-BOOK MARKET

Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0% 23-Jan-11 20-Feb-11 20-Mar-11 17-Apr-11 15-May-11 12-Jun-11 10-Jul-11 07-Aug-11 04-Sep-11 02-Oct-11 30-Oct-11 27-Nov-11 7.1% 25-Dec-11 22-Jan-12 19-Feb-12 18-Mar-12 15-Apr-12 13-May-12 10-Jun-12 08-Jul-12 05-Aug-12 02-Sep-12 30-Sep-12 28-Oct-12 25-Nov-12 23-Dec-12 20-Jan-13 17.0% 16.1%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Nielsen Insight into the E-book Consumer Market: April 2013

Market penetration in percentage terms

Percentage of the UK population aged 13-79 that have bought an e-book: 2011-2013

DIGITAL CUMULATIVE PENETRATION

8.4%

11

Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

PERFORMANCE - TRENDED UK - eBooks
eBooks Total Books | 52 w/e

600

160,000

480

128,000 Sales (£000)

% Change

360

96,000

240

64,000

120

32,000

0

0

% Change

Latest Year

Previous Year

© Kantar Worldpanel

12

DIGITAL CUMULATIVE PENETRATION
E-book population increases per four-week period
Numbers of individuals aged 13-79 entering the e-book market: period-on-period growth in population number terms
700,000 621,000 600,000

500,000 423,000 400,000

300,000
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

Mean average line (287,000)

200,000

100,000 15-May-11 13-May-12 17-Apr-11 25-Dec-11 15-Apr-12 20-Mar-11 18-Mar-12 23-Dec-12 23-Jan-11 22-Jan-12 07-Aug-11 05-Aug-12 02-Oct-11 30-Oct-11 27-Nov-11 28-Oct-12 12-Jun-11 10-Jun-12 25-Nov-12 20-Feb-11 04-Sep-11 19-Feb-12 02-Sep-12 30-Sep-12 20-Jan-13
13

10-Jul-11

Nielsen Insight into the E-book Consumer Market: April 2013

08-Jul-12

Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

PRODUCTS - TRENDED UK - TOTAL BOOKS
Spend (£000) | Actual | TOTAL MARKET | Books-Adult Fiction | 52 w/e

600,000

Spend (£000) - Actual

400,000

200,000

Total Books

Hardback

Paperback

eBooks

© Kantar Worldpanel

17

UK 2012 VOLUME SALES
Volume sales proportions by format

Fiction

Non-Fiction
8.4%

27.0%

Children’s
6.5%

Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

physical books

e-books

19

UK 2012 VALUE SALES
Value sales proportions by format

Fiction
16.9%

Non-Fiction
3.9%

Children’s
4.7%
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

physical books

e-books

20

THE UK FICTION MARKET
E-books drive volume growth
Fiction – 52 week rolling volume sales

Millions
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

120 100 80 60 40 20

25-Dec-11

23-Dec-12

Physical Books

e-books
21

THE UK FICTION MARKET
E-books drive volume growth
Fiction – 52 week rolling volume sales

Millions

120 100 80 60 -15.0%

Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

40 20

25-Dec-11

23-Dec-12

Physical Books

e-books
22

THE UK FICTION MARKET
E-books drive volume growth
Fiction – 52 week rolling volume sales

Millions

120 100 80 60 -15.0%

Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

40 20

25-Dec-11

23-Dec-12

Physical Books

e-books
23

THE UK FICTION MARKET
E-books drive volume growth
Fiction – 52 week rolling volume sales

Millions

120 100 80 60 -15.0%

Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

40 20

25-Dec-11

23-Dec-12

Physical Books

e-books
24

THE UK FICTION MARKET
E-books drive volume growth
Fiction – 52 week rolling volume sales

Millions

120 100 80 60

2.4%

-15.0%

Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

40 20

25-Dec-11

23-Dec-12

Physical Books

e-books
25

THE UK FICTION MARKET
E-books drive volume growth – but don’t deliver revenue growth
Fiction – 52 week rolling value sales

Millions
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

£600 £500 £400 £300 £200 £100 £0
25-Dec-11 23-Dec-12

Physical Books

e-books
26

THE UK FICTION MARKET
E-books drive volume growth – but don’t deliver revenue growth
Fiction – 52 week rolling value sales

Millions

£600 £500 £400 £300 -13.4%

Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

£200 £100 £0
25-Dec-11 23-Dec-12

Physical Books

e-books
27

THE UK FICTION MARKET
E-books drive volume growth – but don’t deliver revenue growth
Fiction – 52 week rolling value sales

Millions

£600 £500 £400 £300 -13.4%

Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

£200 £100 £0
25-Dec-11 23-Dec-12

Physical Books

e-books
28

THE UK FICTION MARKET
E-books drive volume growth – but don’t deliver revenue growth
Fiction – 52 week rolling value sales

Millions

£600 £500 £400 £300 -13.4%

Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

£200 £100 £0
25-Dec-11 23-Dec-12

Physical Books

e-books
29

THE UK FICTION MARKET
E-books drive volume growth – but don’t deliver revenue growth
Fiction – 52 week rolling value sales

Millions

£600 £500 £400 £300

-3.6%

-13.4%

Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

£200 £100 £0
25-Dec-11 23-Dec-12

Physical Books

e-books
30

E-BOOK AND PHYSICAL BOOK SELLING PRICES
E-book prices have been driven down as penetration increases
Rolling 52-week average selling price

£7.00 £6.50 £6.00 £5.50 £5.00 £2.38 £3.21

£4.50
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

£4.00 £3.50 £3.00

Physical Books

ebooks
31

Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

KEY FINDINGS
From our international markets, including the US, Italy and the UK

• • • • •

Print book markets worldwide continue to see decline E-book sales data is not yet broadly available – consumer data helps to bridge this gap In the UK, the rapid growth in e-book adoption has slowed somewhat Christmas sees strong sales of e-readers, but not e-books as these are not easily giftable In the UK e-books have taken a substantial proportion of the Fiction market, delivering volume growth – but this is not matched by revenue growth Whilst e-books become increasingly significant for the Fiction market, the Non-Fiction and Children’s sectors have not kept up

E-book pricing is not only lower then physical books - it has been driven down as penetration has increased
32

david.walter@nielsen.com

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