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Peak Oil Dashboard: Page 1 Q1 2013

Created by Will Martin - Peakoilproof.com

Global Peak Oil Summary
This dashboard is designed to quickly summarize the global oil market over the past quarter. By keeping track of key quantitative indicators on a quarterly basis, this dashboard can help monitor the onset of peak oil.

Supply
The global rate of oil production is up slightly year-over-year. However, during the same period global net exports of oil declined. Global supermajor production continues to fall. Global supermajor operating profits also fell as the cost of drilling remained at record highs. Based on this data, we are likely still on the "bumpy plateau" of peak oil and have likely passed "peak oil exports."

Global Oil Production
year-over-year growth
-2%
-4% 0%

2%
4%

-6%
-8%

6%
8%

-10%

10%

Demand
Global oil consumption was up slightly year-over-year. Consumption fell in the US & EU, while consumption rose in Asia and most of the developing world. The economies of the developed world are shrinking on a relative basis to the global economy. Europe is officially in a double-dip recession. GDP growth remains strong in Asia and the developing world. In Q1 2013 China overtook the US as the world's largest oil importer the first time the top spot has changed hands in 41 years.

Real World GDP Growth
-2% -4% -6% -8% -10% 10% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Price
The price of crude oil fell nearly 10% year-over-year, but remained well above historical averages. Prices in futures and options markets seem to indicate a belief that oil prices will continue to fall, possibly due to slowing global economic growth. The global money supply rose 6% year-over-year as central banks pumped more money into their economies, but a falling velocity of money kept inflation from pushing up oil prices in real terms.

Crude Oil Price
Brent yoy change
-5% -10% -15% -20% <-25% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% >25%

Peak Oil Dashboard: Page 2 Q1 2013
Created by Will Martin - Peakoilproof.com

Oil Supply: Global Oil Production Rates
Summary: The global oil production rate is up slightly year-over-year. The growth rate of the production rate, however, has been declining for nearly 30 years and is well below its 1986 peak. Major improvments in production rates in the past year have occured in the United States, Canada, Russia, China and West Africa. US oil production increased dramatically due to shale fracking, helping to offset the decline in production from Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico. Lybia experienced major production rate gains as it ramped back up following the Arab Spring.

2001 1999

Peak Oil: 1970 '79 1970 2004 '93 1974

1970

800,000+ more BPD 600,000-800,000 more BPD 400,000-600,000 more BPD 200,000-400,000 more BPD 0-200,000 more BPD No Data 0-200,000 fewer BPD 200,000-400,000 fewer BPD 400,000-600,000 fewer BPD 600,000-800,000 fewer BPD 800,000+ fewer BPD Peak Oil: 1998

Global Oil Production Rate YOY Growth
-2%
-4% -6% -8% -10% 10% 0%

2%
4% 6% 8% Peak Growth Rate: 7% in 1986

page 1 of 1

Peak Oil Dashboard: Page 3 Q1 2013
Created by Will Martin - Peakoilproof.com

Oil Supply: Export Supply
The Top 10 Oil Exporting Countries Represent 81% of World Oil Export Supply - Net Exports Estimated Using Jeffrey Brown's Export Land Model Summary: Global oil exports remain relatively flat year-on-year but are still down about 3 MMBPD from their peak in 2004. Half of the top 10 oil exporting nations, which together represent 81% of global oil exports, are now experiencing 5-year net export rate declines. Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Venezuela, Norway and Libya are all seeing lower rates of net exports. This decline has been somewhat offset by huge increases in oil exports from Iraq and Canada. Total liquid production rates continue to decline for the Supermajors. Overall, global net oil exports do not appear to be responding to record-high oil prices, signaling that we may be on the "bumpy plateau" of peak oil.

Russia
5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR

Saudi Arabia
5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR

Iraq
5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR

United Arab Emirates
5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR

Kuwait
5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR

-2% -4% -6% -8% -10%

0%

2% 4% 6% -4% -6% -8%

-2%

0%

2% 4% 6% -4% -6% -8%

-2%

0%

2% 4% 6% -4% -6% -8%

-2%

0%

2% 4% 6% -4% -6% -8%

-2%

0%

2% 4% 6%

Peak Oil Sooner
10%

8%

Peak Oil Sooner
-10% 10%

8%

Peak Oil Sooner
-10% 10%

8%

Peak Oil Sooner
-10% 10%

8%

Peak Oil Sooner
-10% 10%

8%

Nigeria
5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR

Venezuela
5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR

Norway
5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR

Libya
5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR

Canada
5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR

-2% -4% -6% -8% -10%

0%

2% 4% 6% -4% -6% -8%

-2%

0%

2% 4% 6% -4% -6% -8%

-2%

0%

2% 4% 6% -4% -6% -8%

-2%

0%

2% 4% 6% -4% -6% -8%

-2%

0%

2% 4% 6%

Peak Oil Sooner
10%

8%

Peak Oil Sooner
-10% 10%

8%

Peak Oil Sooner
-10% 10%

8%

Peak Oil Sooner
-10% 10%

8%

Peak Oil Sooner
-10% 10%

8%

Global Net Oil Exports
For Top 19 Oil Exporting Nations

Supermajor Production Rate
BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, & Total

40,000 35,000

12,000

10,000

30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000

Total Liquids Production Rate (Thousand BPD)

BP 8,000 Total 6,000 Shell

Thousand BPD

4,000 Chevron

Saudi Arabia

2,000

Russia
0 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12
0

ExxonMobil

2012

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Peak Oil Dashboard: Page 4 Q1 2013
Created by Will Martin - Peakoilproof.com

Oil Supply: Export Supply: News Summaries
The Top 10 Oil Exporting Countries Represent 81% of World Oil Export Supply - Net Exports Estimated Using Jeffrey Brown's Export Land Model - Summaries Come From Tom Whipple's Weekly "Peak Oil Review"

Russia
12000

Russia Q1 2013 News
Thousand Barrels Per Day

Saudi Arabia
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Aug-07 Apr-03 Oct-09 Jun-05 May-04 Nov-10 Dec-11 Sep-08 Jul-06 Jan-13

Saudi Arabia Q1 2013 News
Export cannibalization continues to grow in Saudi Arabia. The Saudis have 3 new refineries under construction that will net exports by 1.2 million BPD in 2017. Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi said that $100 a barrel oil was a “reasonable” rice and that "prices will stay at these current levels in the foreseeable future." Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz was placed second in line to the throne. Based on actuarial tables, the 88-year old King Abdullah has about a 15% chance of dying in the next year.

Thousand Barrels Per Day

10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Aug-07 Apr-03 Oct-09 Jun-05 May-04 Nov-10 Dec-11 Sep-08 Jul-06 Jan-13

Russian oil production reached a post-Soviet record level in Q1 2013. However, the ratings agency Fitch announced that Russian oil production would probably peak in the next few years. China passed Europe to become Russia’s number one oil market. The Russian government announced that Rosneft and Gazprom will receive licenses to drill offshore in the Russian Arctic.

Production Consumption

Net Exports

Production Consumption

Net Exports

Iraq
3500

Iraq Q1 2013 News
Thousand Barrels Per Day

United Arab Emirates
3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Apr-03 Mar-04 Feb-05 Jan-06 Dec-06 Nov-07 Oct-08 Sep-09 Aug-10 Jul-11 Jun-12

United Arab Emirates Q1 2013 News
Announced plans to raise oil production capacity by 200,000 bpd. Meanwhile the UAE opened the world’s largest solar plant, named Shams 1.

Thousand Barrels Per Day

3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 Apr-03 Mar-04 Feb-05 Jan-06 Dec-06 Nov-07 Oct-08 Sep-09 Aug-10 Jul-11 Jun-12

Chaos continued in many parts of the country with car bombs going off on an almost daily basis. Sunni protests grew in intensity, with many analysts believing that Southern Iraq is on the verge of a Sunni-Shiite civil war. A standoff between the main government and the autonomous Kurdish Northern government continued. Kurdistan began exporting oil directly to Turkey, bypassing the federal Iraqi government completely.

Production Consumption

Net Exports

Production Consumption

Net Exports

Kuwait
3000

Kuwait Q1 2013 News
Thousand Barrels Per Day

Nigeria
3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Apr-03 Mar-04 Feb-05 Jan-06 Dec-06 Nov-07 Oct-08 Sep-09 Aug-10 Jul-11 Jun-12

Nigeria Q1 2013 News
Nigeria’s oil production fell precipitously year-overyear, mostly as the result of vandalism and oil theft. Shell and other oil companies had to declare force majeure four times in Q1 as the result of oil theft. Crude oil theft is now such a serious problem in Nigeria that it costs the country $7 billion annually. Nigeria’s four main opposition parties formed a coalition, threatening President Goodluck Jonathan's hold on power.

Thousand Barrels Per Day

2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Apr-03 Mar-04 Feb-05 Jan-06 Dec-06 Nov-07 Oct-08 Sep-09 Aug-10 Jul-11 Jun-12

Kuwait also announced that it plans to spend $56 billion over the next 5 years to raise production by 650,000 bpd by 2020. The Kuwaiti central bank announced that its economy would likely grow at just 1.9% in 2013 – slowing oil export cannibalization.

Production Consumption

Net Exports

Production Consumption

Net Exports

Venezuela
3500

Venezuela Q1 2013 News
Thousand Barrels Per Day

Norway
3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Apr-03 Mar-04 Feb-05 Jan-06 Dec-06 Nov-07 Oct-08 Sep-09 Aug-10 Jul-11 Jun-12

Norway Q1 2013 News
Oil production fell to a 25-year low. The state of Texas now produces more oil than the country of Norway. The oil ministry announced that it expects production to continue to decline in 2013.

Thousand Barrels Per Day

3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Apr-03 Mar-04 Feb-05 Jan-06 Dec-06 Nov-07 Oct-08 Sep-09 Aug-10 Jul-11 Jun-12

President Hugo Chávez died on March 5th, 2013. His successor, Nicolas Maduro, announced that he will maintain the oil industry policies of Chávez. Venezuela announced a major currency devaluation in Q1, stoking fears of higher inflation to come. Imports of gasoline from the United States hit a record high in Q1.

Production Consumption

Net Exports

Production Consumption

Net Exports

Libya
2000

Libya Q1 2013 News
Thousand Barrels Per Day

Canada
4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 Apr-03 Mar-04 Feb-05 Jan-06 Dec-06 Nov-07 Oct-08 Sep-09 Aug-10 Jul-11 Jun-12

Canada Q1 2013 News
Canadian oil production is up dramatically year-overyear.

Thousand Barrels Per Day

1500 1000 500 0 -500 Apr-03 Mar-04 Feb-05 Jan-06 Dec-06 Nov-07 Oct-08 Sep-09 Aug-10 Jul-11 Jun-12

Oil production hit 70% of its pre-Arab Spring levels. Bombings, kidnappings and assassinations continue to make the prospects of stability uncertain.

Production Consumption

Net Exports

Production Consumption

Net Exports

Peak Oil Dashboard: Page 5 Q1 2013
Created by Will Martin - Peakoilproof.com

Oil Supply: Production Costs and Operating Profits
Summary: Production costs continue to increase for oil drilling. Despite record-high oil prices, these increasing costs are resulting in declining profits for oil majors

US and Canada Total Drilling Rig Count
3,000 $70,000,000,000

Supermajor Quarterly Operating Profits

2,500

$60,000,000,000

$50,000,000,000 2,000 $40,000,000,000 1,500 $30,000,000,000 1,000

$20,000,000,000

500

$10,000,000,000

0 Nov-03 Jun-04 Nov-10 Oct-06 Feb-09 May-07 Aug-05 Sep-09 Jun-11 Jul-08 Aug-12 Mar-13 Jan-05

Mar-06

Dec-07

Apr-10

Apr-03

Jan-12

$0 Q1-2012

Q2-2012 ExxonMobil Chevron Shell

Q3-2012 Total BP

Q4-2012

US Capital Expenditure Spending per Barrel of Oil Produced
$160 $4,500,000 $4,000,000 $3,500,000 $120 $3,000,000 $100 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $60 $1,000,000 $40 $500,000 $0

US Cost Per Well Drilled

$140

$80

$20

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

$0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

US Nominal Cost per Crude Oil Well Drilled US Real Cost per Crude Oil/Natural Gas/Dry Well Drilled

Peak Oil Dashboard: Page 6 Q1 2013
Created by Will Martin - Peakoilproof.com

Oil Supply: Global Oil Consumption Rates
Summary: Global oil consumption is up slightly year-over-year. Most consumption gains came from China, India, Japan, Brazil & Thailand. Consumption in the United States and Europe fell over the same period.

2005 '98 2001 '98 Peak Oil Demand: 2005 1996

800,000+ more BPD 600,000-800,000 more BPD 400,000-600,000 more BPD 200,000-400,000 more BPD 0-200,000 more BPD No Data 0-200,000 fewer BPD 200,000-400,000 fewer BPD 400,000-600,000 fewer BPD 600,000-800,000 fewer BPD 800,000+ fewer BPD

Global Oil Consumption Rate YOY Growth
-2% 0% 2%

-4%
-6% -8% -10%

4%
6% 8% 10%

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Peak Oil Dashboard: Page 7 Q1 2013
Created by Will Martin - Peakoilproof.com

Oil Demand: World Relative GDP Growth Rates
Summary: The global economy grew slightly in real terms year-over-year. Most of this growth came from the developing world and in particular from Asia. The GDP of the developed world fell in relative terms, as measured by its share of total world GDP. Nearly all of Europe experienced negative real GDP growth yearover-year.

negative 8% or more negative 6-8% negative 4-6% negative 2-4% negative 0-2% no data 0-1% growth 1-2% growth 2-3% growth 3-4% growth 4%+ growth

Real World GDP Growth Measured in USD
-2% -4% -6% -8% -10% 10% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Real World GDP Growth Measured in Oil
-2% 0% 2%

Real World GDP Growth Measured in Gold
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% -4% -6% -8% -10%

-4%
-6% -8% -10%

4%
6% 8% 10%

page 1 of 1

Peak Oil Dashboard: Page 8 Q1 2013
Created by Will Martin - Peakoilproof.com

Oil Demand: Global Oil Import Demand
The Top 5 Countries/Regions (US, EU, China, Japan & India) Represent 52% of World Oil Import Demand Summary: For the top oil importing countries, GDP continues to increase but at a slowing rate. Almost all of Europe is now in a recession. Some countries, such as Greece and Portugal are in a severe recession. The economies of the United States and Japan are both growing on a real basis but shrinking on a relative basis to the rest of the world. Economic growth remains robust in China and India, propping up global oil import demand, pushing the date of global peak oil closer.

China (#1 Oil Importer)
Real GDP Growth

United States (#2)
Real GDP Growth

European Union (#3)
Real GDP Growth

Japan (#4)
Real GDP Growth

India (#5)
Real GDP Growth

-2% -4% -6% -8% -10%

0%

2% 4% 6% -4% -6% -8%

-2%

0%

2% 4% 6% -4% -6% -8%

-2%

0%

2% 4% 6% -4% -6% -8%

-2%

0%

2% 4% 6% -4% -6% -8%

-2%

0%

2% 4% 6%

Peak Oil Sooner
10%

8%

Peak Oil Sooner
-10% 10%

8%

Peak Oil Sooner
-10% 10%

8%

Peak Oil Sooner
-10% 10%

8%

Peak Oil Sooner
-10% 10%

8%

China (#1 Oil Importer)
Real GDP Growth Relative to World

United States (#2)
Real GDP Growth Relative to World

European Union (#3)
Real GDP Growth Relative to World

Japan (#4)
Real GDP Growth Relative to World

India (#5)
Real GDP Growth Relative to World

-2% -4% -6% -8% -10%

0%

2% 4% 6% -4% -6% -8%

-2%

0%

2% 4% 6% -4% -6% -8%

-2%

0%

2% 4% 6% -4% -6% -8%

-2%

0%

2% 4% 6% -4% -6% -8%

-2%

0%

2% 4% 6%

Peak Oil Sooner
10%

8%

Peak Oil Sooner
-10% 10%

8%

Peak Oil Sooner
-10% 10%

8%

Peak Oil Sooner
-10% 10%

8%

Peak Oil Sooner
-10% 10%

8%

Global Real GDP
6.0% 5.0% 4.0% $18.50 $18.00

GDP Winners & Losers
Annual Real GDP Growth Rate

$17.50
$17.00

3.0% $16.50 2.0% $16.00

1.0%
$15.50 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 $15.00 $14.50 $14.00

Q1-13

Thailand Iraq China Philippines Indonesia Chile Malaysia India Venezuela, RB Mexico Australia World Russia South Africa Norway United States Turkey Hong Kong, China Taiwan Canada Slovak Republic South Korea Poland Brazil Sweden Argentina Singapore Japan Switzerland Romania Ireland Germany Bulgaria Austria United Kingdom France Belgium European Union W Europe Denmark Finland Netherlands Czech Republic Spain Hungary Croatia Italy Portugal Greece -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00%

Quarterly Real World GDP ($Trillion 2005)

Annual Growth Rate (line)

Peak Oil Dashboard: Page 9 Q1 2013
Created by Will Martin - Peakoilproof.com

Oil Demand: Global Oil Import Demand
Top 5 Countries/Regions (US, EU, China, Japan & India) Represent 52% of World Oil Import Demand - Summaries From Tom Whipple's Weekly "Peak Oil Review"

China Q1 2013 News
China overtook the US as the world’s largest net oil importer. The US had been the largest net oil importer since 1972. Car sales rose 20% year-over-year, but China’s economy grew at its slowest rate in 13 years as exports fell. China signed a major gas deal with Russia to import natural gas from Russian fields. Russia also announced that it would double its exports of oil to China. China awarded contracts to 16 companies to drill in China’s shale gas reserves, but not a single one has ever drilled a gas well before. Air pollution levels in Beijing went literally off the scale in Q1 2013. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao called for action to alleviate the pollution and tax minister Jia Chen announced that China would introduce a carbon tax. Not coincidentally, China’s coal consumption levels reached a record high. China now burns as much coal as the rest of the world combined. China continued to pull ahead as the world leader in renewable energy. Wind power overtook nuclear power in China, producing 2% more electricity overall. For 2013, China announced it will install more than 5 times more wind power than nuclear power and more than 3 times more solar power than nuclear power. China now installs three times more solar each year as the United States – accounting for a third of the total world solar panels installed each year.

United States Q1 2013 News
US oil production reached a 20-year high, hitting 7 million bpd for the first time since March 1993. Meanwhile, the US has almost certainly passed “peak oil demand.” US oil demand dropped to an 18-year low and us oil imports fell to their lowest level in 25 years. Gasoline consumption is at its lowest level since 2004. Obama’s State of the Union address specifically endorsed the McCain/Lieberman cap and trade bill; If climate change legislation is enacted, US oil demand would drop further. While shale oil production rose dramatically, all other forms of US oil fell. US Gulf of Mexico oil production continued to decline off its 2009 peak. Production from Alaska’s North Slope continues to fall from its 2002 peak and was down 8% year-over-year. Shell Oil gave up on the 2013 Arctic drilling season after its oil rig, the Kulluk, ran aground in Alaska. Worryingly, the Bakken shale oil boom in North Dakota may be slowing down, with the initial productivity of new wells dropping. Companies are shifting their focus to California’s Monterey shale, where they may face heavy environmentalist opposition. The Federal Reserve has keep interest rates near 0% for four years and has tripled its balance sheet by continuing pump $85 billion each month into the economy. Obama announced Ernest Moniz, a supporter of fracking, as his nomination for Secretary of Energy. Obama also announced Gina McCarthy, a former Mitt Romney aide, as his pick to

European Union Q1 2013 News
Europe was officially in a double-dip recession in Q1 2013, shrinking by 0.6%. Greece’s economy shrunk by 6.4% year-over-year. Unemployment in the Eurozone rose to 11.8% - the highest level since the Eurozone was created in 1999. Europe has passed “peak oil demand”, with oil demand now down 2 million BPD from 7 years ago. Cyprus announced a one-time bank levy on all Cypriot bank accounts on March 15th as part of a €10 billion bailout. A panicked bank run ensued and the government was forced to close all banks for 12 days. The government reopened its banks after it promised not to confiscate money from accounts smaller than €100,000. In Italy, the government will likely remain in political gridlock after parliamentary elections split three ways, leaving no party in a position to govern.

Japan Q1 2013 News
Japan remained in a recession, with its economy contracting for the third straight quarter. The escalating rhetoric between Japan and China over the Senkaku islands cooled when Japan’s new prime minister Shinzō Abe send a letter to Chinese president Xi Jinping, expressing his interest in a peaceful resolution. The new prime minister also announced he would approve the construction of new nuclear reactors – a complete 180 from former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who planned to shut down all Japanese nuclear power plants by 2040. Japan announced it would begin restarting its idled nuclear power plants by the end of 2013. In Q1 2013 Japanese scientists announced that they had successfully extracted natural gas from subsea methane hydrates.

India Q1 2013 News
India became the 4th largest oil consumer after China, the US and Russia. Meanwhile, India’s oil production rate fell 4% year-over-year. Amidst continued electricity shortages, Indian coal imports fell 11% year-over-year. In Q1 the Indian government announced that it would raise gasoline and diesel prices as it continues to slowly phase out fuel subsidies.

Peak Oil Dashboard: Page 10 Q1 2013
Created by Will Martin - Peakoilproof.com

Oil Prices
Summary: Global oil pries are down about 10% year-over-year. This 1-year and 2-year trend of declining oil prices has reversed the 5-year and 10-year trends of rising oil prices. Both Brent and WTI crude oil futures are in backwardation, indicating that traders expect the price of oil to fall in the future. This backwardation benefits investors who take long positions in futures ETFs (like DBO & OIL), as there is no negative “roll yield," like when oil is in congtango. The difference in expected payoffs from put and call options contracts also tell us that traders believe that a price drop is more likely than a price rise over the near term.

Global Crude Oil Price
Brent year-over-year % change

US Gasoline Price
US Mogas year-over-year % change

Brent Put Option Payoffs
CAGR of Returns

Brent Call Payoffs
CAGR of Returns

Brent Straddle Payoffs
CAGR of Returns

Jun-14 -5% -10% -15% -20% <-25% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% >25% -10% -15% -20% <-25% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% >25% Dec-15

Dec-14 Dec-16

Jun-14 Dec-15

Dec-14 Dec-16

Jun-14 Dec-15

Dec-14 Dec-16

100%

100%

100%

90%
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

90%
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% $100.00 $100.00 $110.00 $120.00 $130.00 $140.00 $150.00 $50.00 $60.00 $70.00 $80.00 $90.00

90%
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10%

-9.7% Brent Futures
$100
$95 $90 $85 $80

-3.1% WTI Futures
$100
$95 $90 $85

0% -10%

Backwardation

$80

Backwardation

Brent Crude Oil Price
10-Year $150.00 $140.00 $130.00 $120.00 $110.00 Linear (10-Year) Linear (5-Year) Linear (1-Year)

WTI Crude Oil Implied Volatility Surface

16.00%
Implied Volatility (%) 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00%

$100.00 $90.00 $80.00 $70.00 $60.00 $50.00

$105

$40.00 $30.00 $20.00 $10.00 $0.00 Aug-03 Aug-04 Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Apr-14

$110

$100

6.00% $95 $90 2.5 1.0 $80

3.5

4.5

$85

Strike Prices

1.5

$150.00

$100.00

$125.00

$50.00

$75.00

Peak Oil Dashboard: Page 11 Q1 2013
Created by Will Martin - Peakoilproof.com

Oil Demand: Money Supply Growth Rates
Summary: While supply and demand fundamentals affect the real price of oil, currency fluctuations affect its nominal price. The money supply for most countries continues to grow at unprecidented rates as central banks attempt to prop up their economies. For countries in the midst of severe recessions, such as Portugal and Ireland, the money supply is shrinking significanty. The global money supply is up over 6% year-over-year. This increase in money supply, however, has not resulted in severe inflation, as the velocity of money continues to shrink by over 3% per year.

negative 8% or more negative 6-8% negative 4-6% negative 2-4% negative 0-2% no data 0-5% growth 5-10% growth 10-25% growth 25-50% growth 50%+ growth

World Money Supply YOY Growth Rate
-2%
-4% -6% -8% -10% 10% 0%

Velocity of Money USD YOY Change
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% -4% -6% -8% -10%

2%
4% 6% 8%

page 1 of 1

Peak Oil Dashboard: Page 12 Q1 2013
Created by Will Martin - Peakoilproof.com

Peak Oil Proof Portfolio Investments
Summary: The Peak Oil Proof Portfolio rose in value year-over-year but underperformed the overall equity market. This could be expected as the global oil production rate has not yet peaked. The biggest winners were timber, health care, global real estate. The biggest losers were clean energy, commodities and precious metals. Outside of the portfolio, railroads, car sharing and bitcoins all has dramatic gains.

S&P 500
yoy return

Peak Oil Proof Portfolio
yoy return

Relative Performance
P.O.P. Portfolio vs. S&P 500 yoy

Oil
IXC yoy return

Clean Energy
ICLN yoy return

Null Hypothesis (H0)

-5% -10% -15% -20% <-25%

5% 10% 15% 20% >25% -10% -15% -20%

-5%

5% 10% 15% 20% >25%

-5% -10% -15%

0%

P.O.P. Hypothesis (H1)

0%

0%

5% 10% 15%

-5% -10% -15% -20% <-25%

0%

5% 10% 15% 20% >25% -10% -15% -20%

-5%

0%

5% 10% 15%

P.O.P. Hypoth.

-20% <-25% >25%

20%

P.O.P. Hypoth.

P.O.P. Hypoth.

20% >25%

<-25%

<-25%

1-Year: 12%

5-Year CAGR: 2%

1-Year: 4%

5-Year CAGR: 0%

1-Year: 4%

5-Year CAGR: -2%

1-Year: -10%

5-Year CAGR: -31%

Natural Resources
MXI yoy return

Timber
WOOD yoy return

Agriculture
VEGI yoy return

Water
PIO yoy return

Industrials
EXI yoy return

-5% -10% -15% -20% <-25%

0%

5% 10% 15% -10% -15% -20%

-5%

0%

5% 10% 15% -10% -15% -20%

-5%

0%

5% 10% 15% -10% -15% -20%

-5%

0%

5% 10% 15% -10% -15% -20%

-5%

0%

5% 10% 15%

P.O.P. Hypoth.

20% >25%

P.O.P. Hypoth.

20% >25%

P.O.P. Hypoth.

20% >25%

P.O.P. Hypoth.

20% >25%

P.O.P. Hypoth.

20% >25%

<-25%

<-25%

<-25%

<-25%

1-Year: -3%

5-Year CAGR: -5%

1-Year: 24%

5-Year CAGR: 2%

1-Year: 10%

5-Year CAGR: 2%

1-Year: 9%

5-Year CAGR: -2%

1-Year: 13%

5-Year CAGR: 1%

Health Care
IXJ yoy return

Emerging Market Retail
EMDI yoy return

Media
PBS yoy return

Telecommunications
IXP yoy return

Utilities
JXI yoy return

-5% -10% -15% -20% <-25%

0%

5% 10% 15% 20% >25% -10% -15% -20%

-5%

0%

5% 10% 15% -10% -15% -20%

-5%

0%

5% 10% 15% -10% -15% -20%

-5%

0%

5% 10% 15% -10% -15% -20%

-5%

0%

5% 10% 15%

P.O.P. Hypoth.

P.O.P. Hypoth.

20% >25%

P.O.P. Hypoth.

20% >25%

P.O.P. Hypoth.

20% >25%

P.O.P. Hypoth.

20% >25%

<-25%

<-25%

<-25%

<-25%

1-Year: 25%

5-Year CAGR: 9%

1-Year: -3%

5-Year CAGR: -1%

1-Year: 0%

5-Year CAGR: -17%

1-Year: 10%

5-Year CAGR: 2%

1-Year: 6%

5-Year CAGR: -4%

Technology
IXN yoy return

US Zero-Coupon Bonds
ZROZ yoy return

Intl. Bonds
LEMB yoy return

Intl. TIPS Bonds
ITIP yoy return

Intl. Real Estate
VNQI yoy return

-5% -10% -15% -20% <-25%

0%

5% 10% 15% 20% >25% -10% -15%

-5%

0%

5% 10% 15% -10% -15% -20%

-5%

0%

5% 10% 15% 20% >25% -10% -15% -20%

-5%

0%

5% 10% 15% 20% >25% -10% -15% -20%

-5%

0%

5% 10% 15% 20% >25%

P.O.P. Hypoth.

Hedge
-20% <-25% 20% >25%

Hedge

P.O.P. Hypoth.

P.O.P. Hypoth.

<-25%

<-25%

<-25%

1-Year: 1%

5-Year CAGR: 4%

1-Year: 4%

5-Year CAGR: 9%

1-Year: 6%

5-Year CAGR: 2%

1-Year: 4%

5-Year CAGR: 1%

1-Year: 24%

5-Year CAGR: 5%

Commodities
GSG yoy return

Physical Gold and Silver
50/50 GLD/SLV yoy return

Railroads
UNP, NSC, CNI, GSH, CSX yoy return

Carsharing
CAR & HTZ yoy return

Bitcoins
yoy return

-5% -10% -15% -20% <-25%

0%

5% 10% 15% -10% -15% -20%

-5%

0%

5% 10% 15% -10% -15% -20%

-5%

0%

5% 10% 15% 20% >25% -10% -15% -20%

-5%

0%

5% 10% 15% -10% -15% -20%

-5%

0%

5% 10% 15%

P.O.P. Hypoth.

20% >25%

P.O.P. Hypoth.

20% >25%

P.O.P. Hypoth.

P.O.P. Hypoth.

20% >25%

P.O.P. Hypoth.

20% >25%

<-25%

<-25%

<-25%

<-25%

1-Year: -5%

5-Year CAGR: -12%

1-Year: -7%

5-Year CAGR: 11%

1-Year: 20%

5-Year CAGR: 9%

1-Year: 76%

5-Year CAGR: 17%

1-Year: 1925%

5-Year CAGR: 341%

Airlines
FAA yoy return

Trucking
JBHT, ODFL, LSTR, CHRW yoy return

Gasoline Toys
HZO, WGO, BX yoy return

Tires
GT yoy return

-5% -10% -15% -20% <-25%

0%

5% 10% 15% -10% -15% -20%

-5%

0%

5% 10% 15% -10% -15% -20%

-5%

0%

5% 10% 15% -10% -15% -20%

-5%

0%

5% 10% 15%

POP Hypoth.

20% >25%

POP Hypoth.

20% >25%

POP Hypoth.

20% >25%

POP Hypoth.

20% >25%

<-25%

<-25%

<-25%

1-Year: 45%

5-Year CAGR: 16%

1-Year: 17%

5-Year CAGR: 11%

1-Year: 54%

5-Year CAGR: 8%

1-Year: 13%

5-Year CAGR: -14%

Peak Oil Dashboard: Data Notes Q1 2013
Created by Will Martin - Peakoilproof.com

About: I created this dashboard to keep track of the key quantitative indicators of peak oil. Oil is a finite resource and peak oil will happen eventually. Because some experts, such as the Energy Watch Group, believe that peak oil is happening right now, I want to keep track of these indicators on a real-time basis. I designed this dashboard to be mostly automated, in order to allow me to easily update it on a quarterly basis. All of the information contained herein is publically available; I use no private data. Page 1 Notes: This is simply a summary of the other pages

Page 2 Notes: "Oil Production" is the monthly total wellhead oil production rate. Wellhead production data comes from the Oil Market Intelligence report published by Energy Intelligence Group. Data was pulled into Microsoft Excel using Haver Analytics Data Link Express (DLX).

Page 3 Notes: "Net Oil Exports" is the monthly total wellhead oil production rate minus the monthly petroleum consumption rate for each country/region. Wellhead production data comes from the Oil Market Intelligence report published by Energy Intelligence Group. Country/region petroleum consumption data comes from the annual Oil & Gas Journal from Pennwell Publishing. The annual oil consumption rate is extrapolated forward using the prior 5-Year compound annual growth rate of consumption (CAGR) and converted into a monthly rate. Data was pulled into Microsoft Excel using Haver Analytics Data Link Express (DLX). Supermajor oil production rate data comes from 10-K annual reports published on the Securities and Exchange Commission Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, and Retrieval (EDGAR) system.

Page 4 Notes: Thank you to Jeffrey Brown for creating the "Export Land Model" that allows us to estimate current net exports of oil producing nations instead of waiting for the EIA to release their estimates 2 years after they happen. "Net Oil Exports" is the monthly total wellhead oil production rate minus the monthly petroleum consumption rate for each country/region. Wellhead production data comes from the Oil Market Intelligence report published by Energy Intelligence Group. Country/region petroleum consumption data comes from the annual Oil & Gas Journal from Pennwell Publishing. The annual oil consumption rate is extrapolated forward using the prior 5-Year compound annual growth rate of consumption (CAGR) and converted into a monthly rate. Data was pulled into Microsoft Excel using Haver Analytics Data Link Express (DLX).

Page 5 Notes: Drilling rig count data comes from Baker Hughes. Sumermajor quaterly operating profits come from comes from 10-Q quarterly reports published on the Securities and Exchange Commission Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, and Retrieval (EDGAR) system. US capital expenditure per barrel is derived from total US capital expenditure in the petrolium industry divided by the total US crude oil production. Data for capital expenditure, oil production, nominal cost per well and real cost per well come from the Oil & Gas Journal Annual Forecast & Review. Data was pulled into Microsoft Excel using Haver Analytics Data Link Express (DLX). Page 6 Notes: "Oil Production" is the monthly total "Oil Product Demand" for each country. Demand data comes from the Oil Market Intelligence report published by Energy Intelligence Group. Data was pulled into Microsoft Excel using Haver Analytics Data Link Express (DLX).

Page 7 Notes: Quarterly GDP data comes from Oxford Economics' global macroeconomic database. Relative GDP growth of each country is caculated as the change in the real (2005 US$ Prices & PPP Exchange Rate) GDP of a country as a percentage of total GDP. Data was pulled into Microsoft Excel using Haver Analytics Data Link Express (DLX). Thank you to Mark McHug (http://acrossthestreetnet.wordpress.com/) for giving me the idea to measure GDP growth of countries relative to one another as well as measuring global GDP growth USD as well as in oil barrels and ounces of gold. Page 8 Notes: "Real GDP" is country/region Gross Domestic Product at 2005 US Dollar prices and current Purchasing Power Parity exchange rates. Data comes from Oxford Economics and was pulled into Microsoft Excel using Haver Analytics Data Link Express (DLX).

Page 9 Notes: Summaries come from Tom Whipple's "Peak Oil Review" published weekly by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas USA (ASPO-USA): http://aspousa.org/category/peakoil-review/

Page 10 Notes: Data for crude oil prices and US gasoline prices comes from the Oil & Gas Journal. Data for Brent and WTI crude oil futures comes from IntercontinentalExchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, respectivly. Data for Brent call and put options comes from barchart.com. Data for the WTI implied volitility surface comes from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Page 11 Notes: Data for the money supply of each country comes from Haver Analytics. M3 money supply was used wherever possible. In countries that do not publish M3 data (such as the United States) M2 money supply is used instead. All money supplies are converted to USD using current exchange rates. Velocity of money comes from the US Federal Reserve.

Page 11 Notes: Stock price data comes from Yahoo Finance. All data is adjusted for dividends and splits.