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DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMIC STUDIES

LEADING ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDICATORS


Data last updated April 13th of 2009

The Fortnightly Follow up of the Leading Economic Activity Indicators


synthesizes the situation of the real, monetary, exchange, and fiscal sectors of the
Colombian economy. It will be send by e-mail every two weeks, and will be
available every Thursday of the corresponding week, in the National Planning
Department’s web page, where the series that were used for its construction can
also be downloaded.

Directorate of Economic Studies


National Planning Department
Bogotá, Colombia
REAL ACTIVITY LEADING INDICATORS
As of April 13th of 2009
Directorate of Economic Studies
National Planning Department

I 08 II 08 III 08 IV 08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09


GDP* CPI 7.7 7.2 6.5 6.1
4.11 3.93 2.88 -0.67 Annual Inflation (%)
Annual Real Growth PPI 9.0 6.2 6.2 6.8
Used Installed
78.20 78.49 78.22 76.41 ER Average 2249.56 2252.72 2510.60 2469.75
Capacity According to ANDI
Coffee price -NY Stock
Current Acount / GDP* -2.04 -1.88 -2.65 n.a. 109.97 116.81 113.76 111.28
Exchange-

Deficit (National Central


0.00 -0.10 -0.80 n.a. Oil Price -WTI- 41.37 41.49 39.04 47.96
Government) / GDP*
(*) Preliminary Data, ER: Representative Exchange Rate
Data in percentages. Sources: Dane, Confis, Central Bank. Calculus: DNP-DEE Source: Dane, Federación Nacional de Cafeteros and Bloomberg

Energy Demand
Consumers Confidence Index
Daily observations - Annual variation
40 15
Non regulated energy
30 10

20 5

%
0.3
10 0
Total energy
0 -5 -2.4
-1.6
-10 -10

May-03

May-04

May-05

May-06

May-07

May-08
Jan-03

Jan-04
Sep-03

Jan-05
Sep-04

Jan-06
Sep-05

Jan-07
Sep-06

Jan-08
Sep-07

Jan-09
Sep-08
May-03

May-04

May-05

May-06

May-07

May-08
Jan-03

Jan-04
Sep-03

Jan-05
Sep-04

Jan-06
Sep-05

Jan-07
Sep-06

Jan-08
Sep-07

Jan-09
Sep-08

Source: Fedesarrollo; data as of February of 2009 Source: XM, S.A E.S.P.; data as of February of 2009

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REAL ACTIVITY LEADING INDICATORS
As of April 13th of 2009
Directorate of Economic Studies
National Planning Department

Real Production of the Manufacturing Industry Orders and Inventories in the Industry
Year to date variation Balance*
30
0 20 Inventories
10
-2 13
0
-4 -10
-4.30
%

-20
-6 Andi 2009
-30
-40 Orders
-8 -45
-50
Dane 2009
-10 -60
-10.70

My

My

My

My

My

My
03 E

S
04 E

S
05 E

S
06 E

S
07 E

S
08 E

S
09 E
-12
J F M A M J J A S O N D (*) Data correspond to balance of entrpreneurs answers to qualitative questions.
Source: Fedesarrollo, EOE; data as of February of 2009
Source: Dane, Andi, Calculus: DNP-DEE

Industrial Exportations
Real Production of the Manufacturing Industry
Annual Variation
Annual variation 60
20
50 2008
15
40 2007
10 2007
30
5 2006
%20
%

0
10 3.25
-5 0
2008
-10 2009
-10
-15 -20
E F M A My J Jl A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Source: Dane. Calculus: DNP-DEE Source: Dane

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REAL ACTIVITY LEADING INDICATORS
As of April 13th of 2009
Directorate of Economic Studies
National Planning Department

Trucks Transit* According toTolls** Agrarian Producer Situation


Annual Variation Respect the same last year quarter - Balance*
30%
25% 2006
30
20%
15% 15
10% Total
5% 0
2007 -5.6
0% -12.5
-4.41% -15
-5% -16.1
-10% 2008 -30
-15% Agriculture
-20% -45
J F M A M J J A S O N D 00 I IV III II 03 I IV III II 06 I IV III II
(*) Trucks with 3 to 6 axes. (**) INVIAS permanent tolls and first generation Concessions. (*) Balance of the cualitative answers of the enterprise managers.
Source: Invías. Calculus: DNP-DEE Source: Cega; data as of second quarter of 2008

Retail Trade Sales* Commerce Sales


Annual Variation Balance *
25% 60
20% 40
15% 20
2007
10% 0
5%
-20
0% 2009 2008 -30
-40
-5%

May-03

May-04

May-05

May-06

May-07

May-08
Jan-03

Jan-04
Sep-03

Jan-05
Sep-04

Jan-06
Sep-05

Jan-07
Sep-06

Jan-08
Sep-07

Jan-09
Sep-08
-4.52%
-10%
J F M A M J J A S O N D
(*) Data correspond balance of merchants answers when asking how were sales compared to
(*). Total without fuels.
the same month of the previous year
Source: Dane, Cálculos: DNP-DEE
Source: Fenalco-Fedesarrollo; data as of February of 2009.

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REAL ACTIVITY LEADING INDICATORS
As of April 13th of 2009
Directorate of Economic Studies
National Planning Department

New Vehicles Sales* Construction Licenses*


Annual Variation Annual Variation
60% 70%
2007
50%
40%
30%
20% 2007
2009 10%
0% 2008
-10%
-20% -14.69% -30% -29.76%
2009 2008
-40% -50%
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
(*) Vehicles joined in Colombia. (*). National Total. 77 municipalities
Source: Colmotores, Calculus: DNP-DEE Source: Dane, Calculus: DNP-DEE

Heavy Construction Price Index Cement Dispatch


(Annual variation) (Annual variation)
13% 30%
2008 2007
11% 20%

9% 10%

7% 0% 2008
2007
5% -10%
2009
-20% -17.88%
3%
2009
1% -30%
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Source: ICAV, Calculus: DNP-DEE Source: ICPC

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REAL ACTIVITY LEADING INDICATORS
As of April 13th of 2009
Directorate of Economic Studies
National Planning Department

Unemployment Rate Occupied*


(Main Thirteen cities)* (Main Thirteen cities)**
16 9,000
15 2009 2009 2008
8,800
14 8,688
13.60 8,600
13
2008 8,400
% 12
8,200 2007
11
10 8,000
9 7,800
2007
8 7,600
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
(*) Bogotá, Barranquilla, Bucaramanga, Cali, Cartagena, Medellín, Manizales, Pasto, (*) Thousand people. (**) Bogotá, Barranquilla, Bucaramanga, Cali, Cartagena, Medellín,
Pereira, Cúcuta, Ibagué, Montería y Villavicencio Manizales, Pasto, Pereira, Cúcuta, Ibagué, Montería y Villavicencio
Source: Dane Source: Dane

Unemployment Rate Occupied*


(National Total) (National Total)
15 18,200
2009 17,731 2009 2008
14 17,800
13 12.48
17,400
12 2007
17,000
% 2008
11
16,600
10
16,200
9
2007 15,800
8
J F M A M J J A S O N D
J F M A M J J A S O N D
* Thousand people
Source: Dane Source: Dane

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EXTERNAL AND FINANCIAL LEADING INDICATORS
As of April 13th of 2009
Directorate of Economic Studies
National Planning Department

Central Government Deficit Trade Balance


Accumulated quarter % PIB (complete) (Thousand of millions of dollars FOB - Complete year)
Data as of January of 2009
1 0.3 44

Imports and Exports


-1.7 -0.6 0.0 -0.8
-0.5
-0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -2.6 -1.9 Imports
0 2
0.4
39

Trade Balance
-1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 1
34 37.04
-2 -1.3 -1.6 -1.5 0
% -2.2 -2,2% -2.1 29
-3 -2.7
-4 24 2.27 Balance
Trade -1
-5 19 0.21 -2
-4.8 37.25
-6 14 -3
I II III IV Exports
9 -4

Jan-96

Jan-97

Jan-98

Jan-99

Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008*
(*) Preliminary data.
Source: Confis, DNP-DIFP . Data for nominal GDP come from DANE.
Source: DANE, DIAN. Calculus DEE-DNP.

Colombian Stock Exchange Index Non Traditional Exportations


Data as of April 8th of 2009 Annual Growth 2007
49
12300
39
10300
29
8300
19 2006
6300
8158.4 % 9
4300 2008
-1
2300 2009
-11
300
-21 -12.6
May-04

May-06
Nov-01

Mar-05

Mar-07

Nov-08
Jul-01

Apr-02
Sep-02
Feb-03
Jul-03
Dec-03

Oct-04

Jul-05
Dec-05

Oct-06

Aug-07
Jan-08
Jun-08

Apr-09

-31
J F M A M J Jl A S O N D
Source: Supervalores. Daily Data. Source: DANE

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EXTERNAL AND FINANCIAL LEADING INDICATORS
As of April 13th of 2009
Directorate of Economic Studies
National Planning Department

Total Exports International Prices of Principal Exporting Products


Annual Growth Data as of April 13th of 2009
155 190
70

Cents US$ per pound


2007 135 170

US$ per barrel


50 115 Coffe 176.52 150
95 130
30
% 75 110
2006
10 55 90
2008 35 70
-10 Oil 52.24
2009 15 50
-6.7

Nov-03

Mar-06
Jan-00

Oct-00

Jul-01

Apr-02

Feb-03

Aug-04

Jun-05

Dec-06

Oct-07

Jul-08
-30 -13.2
E F M A M J Jl A S O N D
Source: Ecopetrol and Sisco - Comercial Management - National Cofee Federation.
Source: DANE

Exhange Rate (2001-2009) Real Exchange Rate Index (2000-2009)


Data as of April 8th of 2009 (Average) Data as of February of 2009

2900 144
139
Pesos per dollar

2700 $/U$2416.63 131.83


134
2500 129
2300 124
2100 119
114
1900 109
1700 104
May-07
Mar-02

Nov-03

Mar-08
Jan-01
Jun-01
Oct-01

Aug-02
Jan-03
Jun-03

Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Sep-05
Feb-06
Jul-06
Dec-06

Oct-07

Aug-08
Jan-09

Dec-00

Jun-01

Dec-01

Jun-02

Dec-02

Jun-03

Dec-03

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08
Source: Central Bank. Daily Data. Source: Central Bank. Monthly Data .

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EXTERNAL AND FINANCIAL LEADING INDICATORS
As of April 13th of 2009
Directorate of Economic Studies
National Planning Department

Total Imports Sovereign Debt Spreads Bonds Comparison


(Anual Growth) 900 Data as of April 2nd of 2009
800
45
700 Brasil

Puntos Básicos
35 600 Colombia
2006 500 EMBI+
25 400
%
300
15 2007
2008 200
5 100
2009 0
-4.1

nov-04
ene-04

jun-04

ago-05

dic-05

may-06

oct-06

feb-07

jul-07

dic-07

abr-08

sep-08

feb-09
mar-05
-5
E F M A M J Jl A S O N D
Source: DANE Source: Ministry of Finance and Public Credit. Daily Data.

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MONETARY AND FINANCIAL LEADING INDICATORS
As April 13th of 2009
Directorate of Economic Studies
National Planning Department

Monetary Base and M3+ Bonds Total Portfolio by Type of Credit


Annual Growth Annual Growth
35 60 8.83%
Base M3 19.06% 50 Commercial
30
40 Consumption 20.17%
25 30 Mortgage
20 20
10
15 0
-10 9.37%
10
15.49% -20
5 -30
0 -40
M

M
00 Jan

01 Jan

02 Jan

03 Jan

04 Jan

05 Jan

06 Jan

07 Jan

08 Jan

09 Jan
S

00 Jan

01 Jan

02 Jan

03 Jan

04 Jan

05 Jan

06 Jan

07 Jan

08 Jan

09 Jan
S

S
Source: Central Bank. As February of 2009 Source: Banking Superintendency. Calculus DNP-DEE. As february of 2009

Non-Performing Loan Indicator by Type of Credit February Real Interest Rates


of 2009 February of 2009
30 16.0000
Commercial Consumption Mortgage Lending 9.54%
25 12.0000
20
8.0000
15 4.45%
4.0000
10 8.08%
5 0.0000
Saving 2.36%
2.72%
0 -4.0000 M

M
00 Jan

01 Jan

02 Jan

03 Jan

04 Jan

05 Jan

06 Jan

07 Jan

08 Jan

09 Jan
S

S
00 Jan

01 Jan

02 Jan

03 Jan

04 Jan

05 Jan

06 Jan

07 Jan

08 Jan

09 Jan
Jl

Jl

Jl

Jl

Jl

Jl

Jl

Jl

Jl

Source: Banking Superintendency Source: Banking Superintendency and Central Bank

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MONETARY AND FINANCIAL LEADING INDICATORS
As April 13th of 2009
Directorate of Economic Studies
National Planning Department

Lending Interest Rate by Type of Credit Interbank Interest Rate


March 27th of 2009
17
38
15
33
Consumption 13
25.47% 7.00%
28 11
23 9
Ordinary
16.26% 7
18
5
13
Preferential 12.83% 3
8

Feb-00
Aug-00
Feb-01
Aug-01
Feb-02
Aug-02
Feb-03
Aug-03
Feb-04
Aug-04
Feb-05
Aug-05
Feb-06
Aug-06
Feb-07
Aug-07
Feb-08
Aug-08
Feb-09
Jan-00 Sep-01 Jun-03 Mar-05 Dec-06 Aug-08

Source: Central Bank. Source: Central Bank. As April 7th of 2009

TESs Yield Curve per Term of Maturity TESs Yield Curve per term of maturity
Secondary Market Primary Market
12
10.0
11
9.5
10
% 9.0
% 9 8.5
Mar-08
8 Feb-08 8.0
7 Mar-09 7.5
4 years 6 years 11 years
6 11-Feb-09 25-Feb-09 11-Mar-09
1 year (nov-10) 4 years (nov-13) 6 years (oct-15) 11 years (jul-20) 25-Mar-09 8-Apr-09
Source: Central Bank - SEN Source: Ministry of Finance and Public Credit

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Annual Variation Year to
Indicators D 09 J F M Date1
Coffee Affairs
Green Coffee -18.9% -37.6% -20.4% n.a. -30.1% Consultant Boureau

Minning
Per area national oil production (BPM) 6.3% 11.2% n.a. n.a. 11.2% Ecopetrol
Coal Exportations (Thousands of metric tons) 3,726 7,059 n.a. n.a. 7,059 Dane
Percentage variation (volume) -46.0% 24.3% n.a. n.a. 24.3% Dane
Millons of dolars FOB 594 611 n.a. n.a. 611 Dane

Industry
Real Production Index (Without threshing) -9.2% -10.7% n.a. n.a. -10.7% Dane
ANDI Year to date production (January) -4.3% Andi
Industry sales Index -9.7% -10.3% n.a. n.a. -10.3% Dane
Employ in the industry -4.7% -6.0% n.a. n.a. -6.0% Dane

Construction
Licenses Approved (77 towns) -27.7% n.a. n.a. n.a. -11.7% Dane
Cement Dispatch -4.6% -18.6% -17.9% n.a -18.3% ICPC
Heavy Construction Prices Index 8.7% 6.7% 4.6% n.a 0.7% Dane
House Prices Index 5.3% 4.4% 3.2% n.a 1.0% Dane

Commerce
Real Sales Value Index (Without fuel) -3.5% -4.5% n.a. n.a. -4.5% Dane
Vehicles sales -32.1% -20.4% -14.7% n.a. -13.4% Colmotores

Air transportation
Passengers National 0.4% -3.2% -6.6% n.a. 1.4%
International 2.8% 3.6% -1.8% n.a. 5.7% Aerocivil
Charge National -23.8% -29.5% -20.3% n.a. -12.0%
International -15.9% -14.9% -24.6% n.a. -4.5%

Road transportation as INVIAS permanent tolls and first


generation Concessions.
Category I Cars and Jeeps 2.8% n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.3%
Category II Buses y 2 axles trucks 0.4% n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.3%
Category III 3 and 4 axles trucks 3.0% n.a. n.a. n.a. 15.2% Invías
Categoría IV 5 axles trucks 5.8% n.a. n.a. n.a. -0.6%
Categoría V 6 axles trucks -16.0% n.a. n.a. n.a. -18.0%

Energy demand monthly serie 0.9% 1.1% 0.3% n.a. 0.7% XM. S.A
Nonregulated energy demand monthly serie -2.3% -2.0% -2.4% n.a. -2.2%

External sector
Exportations (FOB mill. Dollars) 2,963 2,461 n.a. n.a. 2,461
Percentage variation (millions of dollars) -6.7% -13.2% n.a. n.a. -13.2%
Thousands of metric tons 2,963 9,881 n.a. n.a. 9,881
Non traditional exportations (FOB mill. Dollars) 1,600 1,115 n.a. n.a. 1,115
Percentage variation (millions of dollars) 3.9% -12.6% n.a. n.a. -12.6%
Thousands of metric tons 792 587 n.a. n.a. 587
Exportations to United States (FOB mill. Dollars) 923 666 n.a. n.a. 666
Percentage variation (millions of dollars) -10.1% -34.2% n.a. n.a. -34.2%
Thousands of metric tons 3,133 3,169 n.a. n.a. 3,169 Dane
Exportations to Venezuela (FOB mill. Dollars) 662 386 n.a. n.a. 386
Percentage variation (millions of dollars) -1.3% -11.6% n.a. n.a. -11.6%
Thousands of metric tons 264 213 n.a. n.a. 213
Exportations to Ecuator (FOB mill. Dollars) 151 98 n.a. n.a. 98
Percentage variation (millions of dollars) 32.3% 1.6% n.a. n.a. 1.6%
Thousands of metric tons 100 69 n.a. n.a. 69
Exportationes to European Union (FOB mill. Dollars) 458 530 n.a. n.a. 530
Percentage variation (millions of dollars) -17.2% 28.7% n.a. n.a. 28.7%
Thousands of metric tons 1,721 3,882 n.a. n.a. 3,882
Importations (CIF mill. Dollars) 3,066 2,783 n.a. n.a. 2,783
Percentage variation (millions of dollars) 8.2% -5.2% n.a. n.a. -5.2%
Thousands of metric tons 1,759 1,353 n.a. n.a. 1,353
Consumption goods importations (CIF mill. Dollars) 643 497 n.a. n.a. 497
Percentage variation (millions of dollars) 13.1% -9.2% n.a. n.a. -9.2%
Thousands of metric tons 170 130 n.a. n.a. 130
Intermediate goods importations (CIF mill. Dollars) 1,166 982 n.a. n.a. 982
Percentage variation (millions of dollars) 2.6% -25.6% n.a. n.a. -25.6% Dane
Thousands of metric tons 1,375 1,016 n.a. n.a. 1,016
Capital goods importations (CIF mill. Dollars)2 1,152 1,176 n.a. n.a. 1,176
Percentage variation (millions of dollars) 9.4% 20.4% n.a. n.a. 20.4%
Thousands of metric tons 80 86 n.a. n.a. 86
Construction equipment importations (CIF mill. Dollars) 102 127 n.a. n.a. 127
Percentage variation (millions of dollars) 36.7% 39.4% n.a. n.a. 39.4%
Thousands of metric tons 133 122 n.a. n.a. 122

Commercial Balance. Goods. (FOB mill. Dollars) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 379 Dane
Percentage variation (millions of dollars) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -128% Dane
Net foreign investment (accumulated data) (Mill. Dollars) 10,009 1,062 1,733 n.a. Central Bank
Percentage variation (millions of dollars) 47.1% -13.4% -28.7% n.a. Central Bank
Total foreign investment (accumulated data) (Mill. Dollars) 8,537 722 1,192 n.a. Central Bank
Percentage variation (millions of dollars) 26.0% -37.9% -31.8% n.a. Central Bank

Interest rate (DTF to 90 days) 10.12% 9.69% 8.98% 8.17% Central Bank
EMBI Colombia 487.0 464.0 460.0 485.0 Finance Ministry
Real exchange rate 119.2 121.1 131.8 n.a. Central Bank

Occupied level Total National in thousands 17,685 17,063 17,731 n.a.


Unemployment rate Total National 10.6% 14.2% 12.5% n.a. Dane
Unemployment rate 13 Cities 10.9% 14.9% 13.6% n.a.

Prices
CPI 7.7% 7.2% 6.5% 6.1% 1.9% Dane
CPI Foods 13.2% 12.2% 9.5% 8.8% 1.9% Dane
Basic Inflation* 4.1% 3.9% 4.2% n.a. 1.4% DNP calculation
PPI** 9.0% 6.2% 6.2% 6.8% 0.6% Dane

1/ From January of 2008 to the last updated month


2/ Without construction equipment importations
* Basic inflation excludes fuel, public services, foods and transport and communication services.
**As of January of 2007 the DANE elaborates the PPI in their totality, like part of the PLANIB. Base = December 2006
METHODOLOGICAL NOTE

In order to promote updated knowledge on the domestic economic performance, the Directorate of
Economic Studies (DEE) of the National Planning Department (DNP) presents the Fortnightly
Follow Up to certain Leading Economic Activity Indicators. Indicators were selected aiming at
presenting a reduced number of variables that synthesize the real, monetary, exchange and fiscal
sectors.
This follow up is divided in two sections: the first one corresponds to the leading indicators for the
real activity; the second one contains the information for the monetary, foreign, fiscal and financial
sectors.
Industry, trade and energy demand growth is presented in first place. In past decades the latter has
shown a very close relation with the behavior of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Likewise
indicators that relate with the economic activity in a less direct manner have been selected, such
indicators are air and land load transportation. Also the most important labor market indicators are
presented –at national level and for the main thirteen cities- as well as the indicators for the
construction sector.
Finally, the key monetary, external sector, fiscal and financial indicators are presented; together
they reflect the economy’s behavior.

General information summary charts

In these charts you will find information on:


Gross Domestic Product: Quarterly growth vs. the same quarter previous year. GDP data published
are preliminary and have been furnished by DANE.

Current Account / GDP: Current account data are taken from the balance of payments, updated
quarterly by the Central Bank. Data expressed in dollars are divided by the GDP converted to
Dollars through the quarter’s average nominal exchange rate. Data are preliminary until DANE sets
the final GDP values for the time period in question.

Deficit (Central Government) / GDP: The data resulting from the difference between income and
expenditure by the Central Government of Colombia (CNG) are divided by the entire year’s nominal
GDP to get the CNG´s deficit as a GDP proportion. Observations correspond to the deficit effective
cash operations are the only ones considered) accumulated during the respective year. Income and
expenses sum is taken from the information reported by Confis. Data are preliminary until DANE
sets the final GDP values for the time period in question.

Annual Inflation (CPI): Data conveys the annual growth rate of the Consumer Price Index furnished
by DANE.

Annual Inflation (PPI): Data conveys the annual growth rate of the Producer Price Index furnished
by the Central Bank.

RERI: The real exchange rate index compares the evolution of the Colombian exchange rate with
the currencies of a set of countries considering relative price variations (PPI), countries are weighed
by the trade volume (imports and exports) they maintain with Colombia.

NER: Data conveys the annual growth rate of the monthly average nominal exchange rate. Data
source is the Central Bank.
Unemployment Rate: Corresponds to the unemployed proportion, with regards to the economically
active population. Data come from DANE’s Continuous Household Survey. Data is presented at
national level and for the main 13 cities.

Occupied: Number of employed reported by DANE’s Continuos Household Survey. Information is


available at national level and for the main 13 cities.

Retail Trade Sales: Annual variation of the index for sales’ real value, not including fuels, reported
by DANE in the monthly retail trade sample.

Approved Construction Licenses: Annual variation in approved construction licenses for 77


municipalities that DANE reports in the construction licenses report.

Energy Demand: Annual variation in energy demand reported monthly by XM. S.A. E.S.P. This
energy demand is made up by: hydraulic, thermal generation, minor plants and other generation,
imports and unmet demand. Excludes exports.

Leading Indicators on Real Activity

Consumers Confidence Index


This index shows the balance of consumer’s qualitative answers about the families provided by
Fedesarrollo.

Real production of the Manufacturing Industry (year to date variation)

In this chart you will find the year to date growth rate for manufacturing production according
measurements by DANE and ANDI’S Joint Industrial Opinion Survey. In order to measure the
variable, DANE directly collects production value data from the different industry sub-sectors
through the Monthly Manufacturing Sample. This information is deflected to obtain real data used to
produce a weighed index named Industry’s Real Production Index. Based on this index, DNP’s DEE
calculates the year to date variation. With respect to ANDI’s variable, production is measured
through the Joint Industrial Opinion Survey that qualitatively asks whether the year to date
production is larger, smaller or equal to the one for previous years and by what percentage in
quantitative terms. Information is weighed in order to obtain the year to date growth rate for real
production. DNP’s DEE takes this growth directly to prepare the graph.

Real production of the Manufacturing Industry (annual variation)

This graph presents the annual variation for the monthly Real Production Index reported by DANE
in the monthly manufacturing sample. The graph presents this variable’s behavior for the past three
years.

Truck Transit According to Tolls

The graph illustrates annual volume growth rate for 3 to 6 axle trucks going through permanent
tollbooths of the National Roads Institute and first generation concession booths.

Energy Demand

This graphic shows the annual variation of the total energy demand, it is related with family’s energy
demand in the country, and non regulated energy demand, it makes referent to industrial
electricity. Daily data provided by XM. S.A. E.S.P.

Orders and Inventories in the Industry

Orders’ value is taken from qualitative question No. 6 of Fedesarrollo’s Opinion Poll. The graph
includes the answers’ balance (positive less negative answers) taken directly from the survey.
Inventories’ value is taken from qualitative question No. 3 of Fedesarrollo’s Opinion Poll. The graph
contains the balance of the answers, taken directly form the survey.

Industrial Exportations

In this graphic are shown the annual growth rates of industrial exportations in dollars, these are
made up by textils and apparels, chemicals, paper, non metallic minerals and its products, Basic
metal industry, wood and its products, and food industry exportations. Data provided for statistic
information from DANE.

Farming and Livestock Producer Situation

This graphic shows the balance of producer’s qualitative answers in farming and livestock sector,
about investment variables, production and factors that affect the productive development of theirs
activities.

Retail Trade Sales


In order to measure the retail trade variable, DANE conducts a survey and obtains the data both
quantitatively and nominally. After deflecting the information a weighed index is built. DNP’s DEE
calculates the index’s annual variations to prepare the retail trade growth graph. Starting in January
2000 DANE changed the survey’s structure. Therefore variations shown in the graph are not strictly
comparable.

Commerce Sales
Commerce annual sales value is taken from qualitative question No. 3 of Fenalco’s and
Fedesarrollo’s Trade Survey. The question identifies whether the sales registered are over or below
the sales for the same month in the previous year. The graph contains the balance for the answers,
taken directly from the survey.

New Vehicles´ Sales

This chart shows the annual variation for the number of new cars sold. Data are provided monthly
by Colmotores which consolidates new cars wholesales for the entire automotive sector.

Mortgage Bank approved Loans

This graphic shows the annual variation of the units of mortgage approved to the constructors and
individual agents. The performance of this variable for the last three years is shown.
Construction licenses

This graphic shows the annual variation of the approved units to build buildings and constructions in
77 country municipalities. The performance of this variable in the last three years is shown.

Cement Dispatch

In this graphic, the annual growth of the national cement consumption in tons is shown. Data belong
to statistic information provided for the ICPC.

Unemployment Rate
Reports monthly unemployment rate published by DANE according to the National Household
Survey nationwide and in 13 cities.

Occupied
Reports the number of monthly occupied, published by DANE according to the National Household
Survey nationwide and in 13 cities.

Indicators for the Monetary, External, Fiscal and Financial sectors

Central Government Deficit

Based on the Central Government’s data the fiscal deficit for every quarter is illustrated (considering
only real cash operations, not including accrual adjustments), accumulated as a GDP proportion
(full year). Each quarter presents the cumulative fiscal deficit during the respective year (sum of the
respective year’s quarters; Source: Confis). For year 2000 - 2001, results are based on preliminary
data on the Annual Gross Domestic Product by Areas of Activity - Deseasonalized Series, reported
by DANE, therefore are subject to changes made by DANE in this series. For year 2002, results are
based on Annual Gross Domestic Product data, of the Balance of Payments General Assumptions.

Colombian Stock Exchange Index

The Colombian Stock Exchange’s Index substitutes previous indexes for Bogotá Stock Exchange
(IBB), Medellín (IBOMED) and the Western Area (IBO). The integration process for the Bogotá,
Medellín and Western Stock Exchanges was performed in July 2001, to give way to the new and
sole Colombian Stock Exchange. The Exchange’s index is published by the Superintendency of
Securities.

Annual growth of Total Exports

This graph illustrates, since January 2001, with monthly data, the annual growth rate of the total
exports in current dollars. The total exports are composed by the Colombian traditional export
products (Coffee, Petroleum, Coal and Nickel) and the non-traditional exports including gold and
emeralds. The data corresponds to the statistical information supplied by the DANE.
Exchange Rate

This graph illustrates, since January 2000, the behavior of the market’s representative exchange
rate.

Total Imports

This graphic shows the annual growth of total imports in current dollars. Total Imports are
composed by consumer goods (remain and non remain consumer goods), intermediate goods and
raw materials (fuels, lubricants and similar products, farming goods and industrial goods) and
capital goods (construction materials, farming, industry and transport materials). Data provided by
DANE statistic information.

Trade Balance

This graph shows, month by month, full year’s value of exports and imports (sum for the last 12
months), from January 1996 until the last available date. Furthermore, the shaded area
corresponds to the evolution of the Trade Balance (full year) resulting from the difference between
exports and imports (Source: DANE and DIAN).

Non-Traditional Exports

This graph illustrates, since January of 2001, with monthly data, the annual growth rate of the
nontraditional exports in current dollars. The non-traditional exports (including gold and emeralds)
are composed by the exports of the different industrial sectors and those of the agricultural sector,
different from coffee (Flowers, Banana and other agricultural products). The data corresponds to the
statistical information supplied by the DANE.

International Prices of Principal Exporting Products

This graph shows oil’s daily WTI (World Texas International) quote stated in dollars per barrel; as
well as the external daily coffee price in dollar cents per pound (Source: Ecopetrol and Federación
Nacional de Cafeteros).

Real Exchange Rate Index

This graph illustrates, since January 2000, the behavior of the real exchange rate index. This index
compares the evolution of Colombia’s exchange rate with the currencies of a set of countries taking
into account variation in relative prices (PPI); countries are weighed by their trade volume (imports
and exports) with Colombia. The real exchange rate index is obtained monthly from the Central
Bank.

Sovereign Debt Spreads Bonds Comparison

This graph shows the daily quote spreads for Colombia’s Sovereign Debt Index vs Argentina, Brazil
and the Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (EMBI +). Each of these indexes is built based on the
most representative sovereign debt bonds for each country, on the amounts of issues and on their
liquidity. The Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (EMBI +) measures total returns for all external
debt instruments of emerging countries. Daily data are presented starting March 2000 (Source:
Ministry of Finance).
Monetary Base and M3 + Bonds (annual growth rate)

Data from the Economic Studies Assistant Management Office of the Central Bank was used to
prepare this graph. Annual growth is calculated using the variation existing between the reference
month in year t and the same month in year t-1. Clarifying note for M3 or M3+Bonds series: as of
the week of November 24th, 2000, financial system bonds are included in the group of liabilities
subject to reserves requirements, therefore the aggregate until today called M3+Bonds, will be now
called M3.

Total Portfolio per Type of Credit (annual growth rates)

Presents annual growth rates on total portfolio and the Non-performing loans indicator for
commercial, Consumer and Mortgage loans. The latter is calculated as the past due portfolio/total
portfolio ratio. Data reported by the Banking Superintendency.

Interbank Interest Rate

Illustrates daily evolution of interbank rate since January 2000 until current month, reported by the
Central Bank.

TESs Yield Curve per Term of Maturity (Secondary Market)

Comparative presentation of TESs (peso denominated sovereign debt) yields for 1, 2, 3, 5, 7 and
10 years, according to the rates at which they were traded in the secondary market through the
Central Bank’s ENS (Electronic Negotiation System). These monthly rates are calculated as the
average of daily observations registered by ENS, for the last month elapsed, previous month and
previous year. (Source: Central Bank).

Real Interest Rates

Illustrates the evolution of the real saving and lending interest rates, monthly since 1999. Inflation
data used in the calculation corresponds to CPI inflation reported by DANE. Lending rate
corresponds to the Active Rate reported by the Central Bank, estimated as a weighed average rate
(by amount) of the following loan types: Consumer, Regular, Preferential and Treasury (considers
only one fifth of the amounts for this loan type). Saving rate corresponds to the rate reported by the
Banking Superintendency, estimated as a weighed average rate of 90-day term CDs.

TESs Yield Curve per Term of Maturity (Primary Market)

Comparative presentation of TESs yields for 1, 2, 3, 5, 7 and 10 years, according to cut off rates for
the last auction, next to last auction, and an auction conducted some 12 months before the most
recent one. (Source: Ministry of Finance).

The reader must pay special attention to the double scale used in several graphs. The
corresponding variable appears in front of each scale.

Figures used to build the charts may be consulted at the DNP’s web page www.dnp.gov.co

Comments and suggestions at the DNP’s web page www.dnp.gov.co