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INDIA 17 July 2009

Cement Sector
Earnings change

Underweight

Oversupply fear stays
 Demand concerns waning, but oversupply fears remain: The formation of a stable government is expected to boost infrastructure spending and reduce concerns on the demand front. However, oversupply fears still persist and all-India capacity utilization is expected to fall to 83% in FY10 and 76% in FY11.  Fall in cement realizations on a higher base: The fall in utilization would lead to a correction in prices from Q2FY10 onwards starting from the southern region. However, due to price hikes effected in central, eastern and northern regions during Q4FY09 and Q1FY10, price fall would be on a higher base.  Numbers revised; Earnings upgraded: We have revised our all-India cement price assumptions to Rs239/bag for FY10E and Rs223/bag for FY11E, from Rs215/bag and Rs200/bag earlier. We have upgraded aggregate earnings for FY10E and FY11E by 22.4% and 27.5%, respectively, for companies under our coverage.  Valuation drivers missing; Reiterate Underweight: Frontline cement companies trade at EV/ton of US$77US$135 on FY10E capacity vs replacement cost of US$75-90. With oversupply concerns expected to persist over FY10-12E and M&A triggers missing, we do not see valuation drivers that would value the sector above asset replacement cost. Reiterate Underweight.  Grasim is our top pick: Inline with earnings revision and expected stability in earnings, we have revised our target prices by valuing the companies on PE multiples. Grasim (Hold) is our top pick, given its expansion in the northern region.  Shree Cements downgraded to Hold, maintain Hold on UltraTech: We have downgraded Shree Cements to Hold (from Buy) as the stock looks fairly valued at current levels. OPIL has been downgraded to Hold due to oversupply concerns in its key markets. We reiterate Sell on ACC, Ambuja Cements and India Cements.  Centrum cement universe underperforms Nifty until Budget: Since our initiation (Nadir? Not Yet dated 19 March 2009), our cement universe has underperformed the Nifty by 12%, as projected. However, post Budget we saw overall 18% outperformance due to status quo on excise duty and demand generating measures.

Company Name ACC Ambuja Cements Grasim Industries Ultratech Cement India Cements Shree Cement Orient Paper & Industries Source: Centrum Research

CMP (Rs) 795 98 2,608 741 142 1304 49.5

Target Price (Rs) 684 83 2,590 688 114 1,358 56

Centrum cement index vs. Nifty
(%) 15 10 5 0 (5) (10) (15) (20) (25) 2-Jun-09 9-Jun-09 16-Jun-09 23-Jun-09 17-Mar-09 24-Mar-09 31-Mar-09 12-May-09 19-May-09 26-May-09 14-Apr-09 21-Apr-09 28-Apr-09 30-Jun-09 5-May-09 7-Apr-09 14-Jul-09 7-Jul-09 Centrum Cement Index Outperformance over Nifty Status quo on excise duty and increase in infraspend led to recent outperformance of cement

Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research

Rajan Kumar rajan.kumar@centrum.co.in +91 22 4215 9640

Summary valuations
M Cap Company ACC Ambuja Cem Grasim Ultratech India Cem Shree Cem OPIL Rating Sell Sell Hold Hold Sell Hold Hold (Rsbn) 149 149 239 92 40 45 9.5 CMP (Rs) 795 98 2,608 741 142 1,304 49.5 TP (Rs) 684 83 2,590 688 114 1,358 56 Upside (%) (13.9) (15.5) (0.7) (7.2) (19.3) 4.1 13.1 EPS (Rs) FY10E 76.3 8.3 259 85.8 17.6 181.3 11.2 FY11E 54.1 7.6 217 69.0 12.8 165.0 10.6 PE (x) FY10E 10.4 11.8 10.1 8.6 8.1 7.2 4.4 FY11E 14.7 12.8 12 10.7 11.1 7.9 4.7 EV/E (x) FY10E 5.8 6.8 5.1 5.1 4.7 5.2 3 FY11E 7.7 6.6 5.5 5.5 5.2 5 2.8 EV/Ton ($) FY10E 110 134 94 93 77 91 41 P/BV (x) FY10E 2.6 2.3 1.7 2 1.2 1.9 1.2 ROE (%) FY10E 27.7 20.6 18.7 26.1 15.6 29.4 29.4 FY11E 18.5 16.8 13.6 17.3 10.1 21.5 22.4

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Please refer to important disclosures/disclaimers inside

leading to fall in prices.3 30.3 90.3 FY10E 31.0 0.8 6.5 1.3 78.0 42. our all-India demandsupply model would remain almost same with utilization levels at 83% and 76 % in FY10 and FY11.3 71. in the southern region.0 10.0 2.5 3.0 (6.0 (5.0 0.0 5.1 FY11E 96.0 5.3 9.2 75. Exhibit 1: Our all-India demand-supply scenario indicate surplus scenario (mt) Capacity at Beginning of year Operative Capacity Capacity Addition During the Year Add On Capacity Effective Capacity Cement Production Production Consumption Growth assumption (%) Exports Capacity Utilization (%) Source: CMA.5 97.8 58. The northern.9 85.3 Source: CMA.4 0.3 0.6 South FY09E 62.0 33.1 6.2 85.6 0.8 31.4 17.8 25. we believe concerns over demand have eased. Centrum Research Estimates The northern and central regions are expected to have a relatively balanced demand-supply situation on account of high demand.3 97.9 28.0 68. we expect utilization levels to drop to 76% and 68% levels in FY10 and FY11.5 1.8 (3.2 83.1 FY08 28.0 24.4 East FY09E 29.1 75.1 36.3 FY08 25.6 1. However. Centrum Research Estimates FY06 155 152 6 2 155 142 145 136 12.0 99 FY09A 198 188 22 8 196 181 184 178 8.5 57.5 3.0 (5.5 4. The massive election-related spending in UP as well as profligate expenditure on monuments by the Mayawati government caused cement prices to rise in Uttar Pradesh. lower capacity addition and high level of consolidation which would translate into price discipline for a longer period.0 0.6 1.3 9.6 16.4 23.4 5.0 28.5 8.4 FY08 53. The oversupply in the southern region is also expected to disrupt the demand-supply dynamics and pricing in the western region.7) 69.7 5.1 7.4 8.1 FY11E 36.4) 99.9 5.Demand concerns abating.0 76 Exhibit 2: Regional demand-supply scenario (north-south divide accentuated) Zone wise demand-supply dynamics Zone (mt) Capacity at Beginning of year Operative Capacity Capacity Addition During the Year Add On Capacity Effective Capacity Production Consumption Growth assumption (%) Exports Net Transfer From other Zone Capacity Utilization (%) FY08 59.8 FY11E 39.9 34.9 0.0 2.6) 82. 2 Cement Sector .0 0.0 31.4 61. central and eastern regions look better-placed to sustain price discipline over a longer period due to higher utilization levels.7 32.0 98.9 106.7 34.0 2.6 60.9 0.4 33.2 31.0 (6.4 37.5 5. However.5 23.3 5.6 26.9 FY10E 79.0 (5.4 14.9 54. respectively.5 101.2 11.2 28.7 2. which would aid sustainability of prices.9 2.7 FY10E 78.0 10.0 West FY09E 31.7 54.4 38.2 9.7 0.1 31.0 5.3 7.4 61.0 1.1 34.7 3.3 29.0 (5.6 FY10E 32.5 11.4 7. respectively.7 6. Capacity utilization in the northern and central regions combined is estimated at around 89% and 82% in FY10 and FY11.4 0.2 5.2 9.2 39.2 92 FY07 161 158 7 4 162 155 158 149 10.5 0.0 96 FY08 168 162 30 8 170 168 170 164 9.1 4.1 67.0 83 FY11E 274 268 19 11 279 213 213 210 8.1 (5.1 1.0 100.1 2.3 8.5) 90.0 26.3 33.4 6.9 0.8 61.6 54.4 9.0 28.3 10.1) 94.9 59.0 2.8 27.2 14.6 North* FY09E 74. respectively.9 30.9 52.6 FY11E 102. but oversupply fears remain Post the formation of a stable government. However.0 9.0 0.5 80.5 0.0 8.6 8.4 57.0 63.0 2.7) 75.0 70.4 8.1 68.8 20.6) 89.2 65.7 94.0 8.4 7.7 4.1 92 FY10E 222 213 50 24 237 197 198 193 8. The southern region faces an adverse demand-supply-pricing scenario on account of lower growth in demand due to the high base.8 74.2 49. massive capacity addition and fragmentation.4 30.7 64.0) 98.5 4.7 5.8 84.8 76.4 31. we believe the industry would still feel the impact of oversupply in FY10 and FY11 as per our demand-supply model.2 94.2 9. Additional demand due to the 2010 Commonwealth Games in New Delhi and the freight corridor in North is expected to sustain high growth in the northern region.

7bn monument spread over 43 acres) Exhibit 4: Work in progress for the 2010 New Delhi Commonwealth Games Source: Centrum Research Source: Centrum Research Price assumptions revised We have raised our cement price assumptions for FY10E and FY11E to Rs239/bag (earlier Rs215/bag) and Rs223/bag (Rs200/bag). northern and central regions and 12% aggregate fall by March 2010. our price decline assumptions are modest compared to the steep 20% price fall during FY02-03. Our new demand-supply pricing model assumes a staggered decline of 9% in prices from Q1FY10 levels in the eastern. However. Exhibit 5: Revised all-India and regional price assumptions (Rs/bag) Region North/Central East West South All India Old FY10E 207 207 207 234 215 FY11E 192 192 192 219 200 Revised FY10E 239 242 230 243 239 FY11E 224 227 215 226 223 Source: Centrum Research Estimates Exhibit 6: Our price decline assumptions are modest compared to historical precedent (Rs/50 Kg Bag) 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 May-92 May-93 May-94 May-95 May-96 May-97 May-98 May-99 May-00 May-01 May-02 May-03 May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 20% decline Average Cement Prices All India Source: Bloomberg.Exhibit 3: Kanshiram memorial in Lucknow (a Rs3. Centrum Research 3 Cement Sector . western.

415 3.5 19. Ending Source: Centrum Research Estimates FY10E 76.6 3.0 28. prices are likely to stay firm for longer period due to the high level of consolidation in these regions.2 8.0) (27.5% in FY10E and FY11E to factor in the hike in cement prices in the central.1) (8.2 6.173 2.4 (5.427 3.1) (5.3 7.2 2.0 12.3 8.0 28.2 FY11E 54.6 69. However.0 3. they were hiked by 13% and 19% to Rs249/bag and Rs254 /bag.6 6.9 6. we believe the sector would see an oversupply scenario during FY10-11 and utilization levels would come down to 83% and 76%.2) (9.0) (7.6 7.6) (9.0 (1.Exhibit 7: Revised realization assumptions Company Y/E March ACC # Gujarat Ambuja# Ultratech Grasim Shree India Cements OPIL Note: # Dec.6) (19.146 3.3 (1.6 FY10E 30.1 6.9 Earnings estimates upgraded We have raised aggregate earnings (sum of net profit of companies under coverage) estimates by 22.8 FY11E 6.0 Valuation triggers missing.2) (8. Average cement prices were hiked by 10% in the northern region between Jan 2009 and June 2009.4) 27.509 2.1 9. Hence. we do not see any valuation drivers that would value the sector above asset replacement cost.1 7.694 3.6 5. reiterate Underweight The outlook in terms of profit growth for Q1 and Q2 looks robust on account of cement prices sustaining at high levels till date and lower energy costs.7) FY11E (7.0 165.0 217. respectively. from 92% in FY09.334 3.5 FY11E 50. Ending Source: Centrum Research Estimates Net Realization (New) (Rs/ton) FY10E 3. As the sector is already valued above replacement cost and there is perceptible lack of M&A activities.7 9.8 21.5 17.3 15.8 259.9 (1. Further.6) Estimate change (%) FY10E 22.7) Revised By (%) FY10E 5. Over the same time.2) (0.2 6.5 4.6) (7. eastern and northern region during Q4FY09 and Q1FY10.8 10.1 24.5) (5.3 8.1 4.806 FY11E 3.0 25.0 181.1 22.6) (9.3 17.6) (16.139 2.6) (8.9) FY11E (29. respectively.609 3.4% and 27.3 85.2 12.0) 1. we maintain our Underweight stance on the sector.6 10. in the eastern and central regions. Exhibit 8: Revised estimates (EPS) Growth (YoY) (%) Y/E March (Rs) ACC # Ambuja Cements # Ultratech Cement Grasim Industries Shree Cement India Cements OPIL Note: # Dec.879 3.6 11.150 3. 4 Cement Sector . a hike in excise duty still remains a high probability event. The hikes started in UP where prices went up by over Rs60/bag as additional demand created by election-led expenditure and the huge expenses on building statues and memorials by the Mayawati government created a shortage.534 YoY Growth (%) FY10E 6.414 3. With higher demand expected in the northern and central regions.

We maintain Hold on UltraTech. Ambuja Cements at 10x CY09E. Centrum Research 5 Cement Sector . We maintain our Sell rating on ACC and Ambuja Cements due to expensive valuations.0 8.0 6.7 1.5 5. OPIL has been downgraded to Hold due to oversupply concerns in its key markets. Exhibit 10: Centrum cement index vs.9 0.7 5.0 5. inline with our earnings and RoE revisions. Grasim Industries (Hold) is our top pick as we believe it would benefit due to the expansion in the structurally robust northern region.8 4.0 1. giving appropriate discount on account of their regional presence.5x FY10E.0 EV/EBIDTA (x) 4. Exhibit 9: Revised target prices and implied multiples Company Target price (Rs) Revised ACC # Ambuja Cements # Grasim Industries Ultratech Cement India Cements Shree Cement OPIL Note: # Dec.5 7.9 5.1 4.Target prices revised Given the relatively high visibility of earnings post easing of demand-side concerns.0 10.3 EV/ton ($) 94 113 93 87 65 95 46 PE (x) 9. Nifty (%) 15 10 5 0 (5) (10) (15) (20) (25) 14-Apr-09 21-Apr-09 17-Mar-09 24-Mar-09 31-Mar-09 28-Apr-09 7-Apr-09 5-May-09 12-May-09 19-May-09 26-May-09 2-Jun-09 9-Jun-09 16-Jun-09 23-Jun-09 30-Jun-09 7-Jul-09 14-Jul-09 Centrum Cement Index Outperformance over Nifty Status quo on excise duty and increase in infraspend led to recent outperformance of cement Source: Bloomberg.5x FY10E and OPIL at 5x FY10E. We have valued UltraTech at 8x FY10E. Ending Source: Centrum Research Estimates 684 83 2590 688 114 1358 56 Earlier 503 65 1.9 2.474 542 83 1. India Cement is a Sell for its exposure to challenging southern market. However proposals in the Budget like increased thrust on the Bharat Nirman and JNNURM schemes and maintaining the 8% excise duty on cement against street expectation of 4% hike led to the Centrum Cement Index outperforming the Nifty by 18% post budget.9 1. India Cements at 6.3 Centrum cement universe underperformed till Budget The Centrum Cement Index underperformed the Nifty by 12% until 6 July 2009 (the day the Budget was presented) since our initiation with underweight rating on 19 March 2009. we have revised our target prices by valuing Grasim at 10x FY10E. Our current valuations criteria results in higher implied P/BV multiple and EV/tonne. We have downgraded Shree Cements to Hold (from Buy) as the stock looks fairly valued at current levels.2 1.004 41 Implied multiple at revised target price P/BV (x) 2.4 3.0 10. Shree Cements at 7. and ACC at 9x CY09E.

Centrum Research Our positive stance on AV Birla Group is substantiated by significant outperformance of Grasim and UltraTech (both AV Birla Group companies) over Ambuja Cements and ACC of the Holcim group. Exhibit 12: AV Birla group companies vs Holcim group companies AV Birla Vs Holcim (since initiation) Centrum Index Nifty 53.3 Centrum Index Nifty 53.0 Ambuja ACC Return (%) 0 10 20 30 40 46.0 79.5 India Cements 45.5 59.Shree Cements.0 50 60 70 80 90 Source: Bloomberg. India Cement Shree Cement Vs India Cements (since initiation) 59.0 Return (%) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Source: Bloomberg.3 Ultratech Grasim 54. Centrum Research 6 Cement Sector .0 Shree Cements 116. which was the top pick at the time of our initiation.0 43. outperformed the Nifty by 62% and peer India Cements by 71 % Exhibit 11: Shree Cements vs.

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