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May 27, 2013

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MBA

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MBA

Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

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Manoj Lohatepanont, Sc.D. Chulalongkorn University

Outline

Deterministic Stochastic

Probability Distribution

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Queuing Theory

A mathematical study of queues Queue is a waiting line especially of persons or vehicles awaiting processing A queue forms when current demand for a service exceeds the current capacity to provide that service Help provide decision or guideline on system capacity

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It is often impossible to predict accurately when and how many customers will show up, and how long it will take to service each customer

E.g., checkout queues at supermarkets

Providing too much capacity costs money Providing too little capacity leads to long wait in queues, which in turn leads to other undesirable consequences

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Queuing theory itself does not directly provide optimal solution Rather, it provides vital information about various characteristics of the queue to decision makers

Average waiting time Average queue length

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Applications

Traffic analysis Industrial plants Retail stores Service-Oriented Industries Telephone switchboard Aircraft Takeoff/Landing Sequence Expressway Toll Plaza

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Queue

demand exceeds service capacity for a period of time the arrival time headway is less than the service time at a location

Telephone switchboard Car repair shop Non-Physical Queue

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Queuing System

Queuing System Server 2

Server 1

Queue

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Queuing System

Queue

Servers

Served Customers

Queuing System

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Input Source

Infinite (Unlimited)

The size of input source is relatively large Implicit assumption of most queuing models

Finite (Limited)

The size of input source is relatively small This assumption should be used when the rate at which

the input source generates new customers is significantly affected by the number of customers in the queuing system

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Arrival Process

Interarrival Time

1/ time/customer 20 min/customer

1/ 1/ Time 1/

customers/time unit 0.05 customers/min

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Queue

Queue Capacity

Infinite

Queue size can grow relatively large Implicit assumption of most queuing models

Finite

Queue size is limited by a relatively small number This assumption should be used when there is a relatively

small limit on how large the length of the queue can grow

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Queue Discipline

The order in which members of the queue are selected for service

Most common

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Servers

Number of Servers

One (s = 1) Multiple (s > 1) Elapsed time from the commencement of service to its completion for a customer

Service Time

1/ time/customer

10 min/customer

1/

1/ Time

1/

customers/time unit

0.1 customers/min

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Deterministic Queue

Suppose

1/ = 1.5 min

3

users

2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Time (min)

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If >

In deterministic case

4

users

3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Time (min)

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Probabilistic Queue

Queue can occur even when < in stochastic case because of randomness In fact, that < is one of the requirements for the study of queuing theory

For < , steady state can be achieved It is nave to set = . This could lead to very large queues! If >= , queue becomes excessively large and uncontrollable

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Steady State

If the queuing system is allowed to operate for a long time, it can be expected, under certain conditions, to reach an equilibrium or steady state Steady state means that the probability that you will observe a certain state of the system does not depend on the time at which you monitor the system

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Utilization

= s

where s is the number of servers

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Queuing Taxonomy

Interarrival Time Distribution (A), Service Time Distribution (B), and Number of Servers (m)

A/B/m

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Probability Distribution of

Interarrival Time (A) Service Time (B)

Common Distributions

D: Deterministic M: [Negative] Exponential Distribution Ek: kth-order Erlang Distribution Hk: kth-order Hyperexponential Distribution G: general Distribution

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M/M/1

For example, M/M/1 queuing system refers to the queuing system that has

Times between arrivals are exponentially distributed

Service times for customers are exponentially distributed

One server

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Exponential Distribution

Unsymmetrical distribution

2.5 2

=2

1.5 f(t) 1 0.5 0 0 1 2 t 3 4

E(T) = 1/ = 0.5

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f(t) = e-t

t >= 0

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Example

If the interarrival time is exponentially distributed and its mean interarrival time is 0.5 min (arrival rate = 2 customers/min)

Customers arrive on average every 0.5 minute ~2/3 of the customers arrive less than 0.5 minute apart ~1/3 of the customers arrive more than 0.5 minute apart

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The probability distribution of the remaining time until the next event (e.g., arrival) occurs is always the same, regardless of how much time has passed (i.e., it does not remember how much time has passed)

If the interarrival time of a bus is exponentially distributed, then this property implies that the probability that a bus will arrive in the next minute is the same no matter how long you have waited at the bus stop

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If the interarrival time is exponentially distributed with parameter , then the number of arrivals (e.g., customers) (X) in a specified length of time T has a Poisson distribution with parameter T

e-T(T)n Prob(X = n) = n!

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Poisson Distribution

We can use Poisson distribution to verify our assumption of exponentially distributed interarrival time

By comparing the number of users that arrive for service during a specific period of time with the number that the Poisson distribution suggests

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Quantities of Interest

L = Expected number of users in the system Lq = Expected number of users in the queue W = Expected system occupancy time Wq = Expected waiting time in the queue

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Basic Characteristics

Utilization

= s

L = nPn

n =0

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Littles Law

John D.C. Little at MIT is generally credited with being the first to prove these steady-state relationships formally in 1961

L = W Lq = Wq

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M/M/1

Assumptions

Interarrival time is exponentially distributed Service time is exponentially distributed One Server FCFS

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M/M/1

Pn = (1 )

Therefore, the expected number of users in the system (at steady state) is

L = nPn = n(1 ) =

n n =0 n =0

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M/M/1

Once L is known all other quantities of interest can be computed from Littles Law and the following relationships

W = Wq + 1

L = Lq +

These equations are bridges between the two equations in Littles Law

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M/M/1

Results can be summarized as follows 1 W= L= 2 Wq = Lq = ( ) ( ) Note also that the probability that the system is idle is P0 = 1

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Example 1

At a small grocery store, customers arrive according to Poisson process with a mean of 15 customers per hour. The length of time it takes to checkout is exponentially distributed with mean equals 3 minutes.

M/M/1 = 15 customer/hr = 20 customer/hr

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Example 1

Compute

1 P0 = 1 0.25 = 0.75

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Example 1

P0 = 1 0.75 = 0.25

1 P = (1 0.75)0.75 = 0.1875 1

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Example 1

2 Lq = ( )

152 225 Lq = = = 2.25 20(20 15) 100

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Example 1

Suppose it costs the operator 3 Baht for each minute that a customer spends waiting in the queue. What is the average cost per customer?

Lq = Wq Lq 2.25 = = 0.15 hr / customer Wq = 15 Cost = 0.15 60 3 = 27 baht / customer

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Example 1

For an additional of 400 Baht per hour, the operator can decrease the average service time to 2 minutes. Is the additional expenditure worthwhile?

= 30 customer/hr

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Example 1

Alternative solution

BEFORE AFTER

Lq = 2.25

Cost = 2.25 60 3 = 405 baht / hr

Lq = 0.5

Cost = 0.5 60 3 = 90 baht / hr

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M/G/1

Assumptions

Interarrival time is exponentially distributed Service time is described only by - an average service time, and - a variance One Server FCFS

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M/G/1

Mean (1/) Variance (2)

2 2 + 2 Lq = 2 (1 )

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M/G/1

As in the previous case, all other quantities of interest can be calculated using Littles Law and the following relationships

1

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Example 2

Aircraft arrivals and departures at Bangkok International Airport can be approximated as a Poisson process at the average rate of 40 plane/hr. It takes the air traffic controller 1.2 min on average to land or dispatch an aircraft with variance equals to 1.96 min2. Assume FCFS queue discipline.

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Example 2

2 2 + 2 Lq = 2 (1 )

40 0.00054 + ( = 2 (1 40 50 )

2 40 50

= 3.78 plane

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Example 2

Lq = Wq

3.78 Wq = = = 0.094 hr / plane 40 Lq

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Example 2

It is estimated that it costs 81,000 baht per hour for an aircraft to wait in the queue. What is the total cost of aircraft waiting to land or takeoff at the airport?

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Example 2

Common mistakes

Lq = 3.78 plane

Cost = 0.094 81,000 = 7,650 baht / hr / plane Cost = 7,650 3.78 = 28,900 baht / hr 28,900 baht / hr << 306,000 baht / hr

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M/M/s

Assumptions

Interarrival time is exponentially distributed Service time is exponentially distributed There are s servers FCFS

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M/M/s

When there are s servers, all with the same service rate

s 1 ( ) n ( ) s + P0 = 1/ s! n =0 n !

s +1

1 1 s

( ) Lq = P0 2 ( s 1) ! ( s )

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M/M/s

As in the previous cases, all other quantities of interest can be calculated using Littles Law and the following relationships

W = Wq + 1

L = Lq +

= s

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Example 3

At a Burger Mary outlet, mean arrival rate of customers is 60 customers per hour and each takes on average 3 minutes to complete order. Arriving customers form one sneak queue in front of 4 cashiers. Assume interarrival and service times are exponentially distributed.

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Example 3

How would the average queue length and time in the system change if a fifth cashier is opened.

60 = = = 0.75 s 4 20

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s 1 ( ) n ( ) s P0 = 1/ + s! n =0 n ! 1 1 s 1 1 60 420

n 60 4 3 ( 60 ( 20 ) 20 ) = 1/ + 4! n =0 n ! = 1/ [13 + 3.375 4]

= 1/ 26.5 = 0.038

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s +1 ( ) Lq = P0 2 ( s 1) ! ( s ) 5 ( 60 20 ) = 0.038 60 2 3! ( 4 20 ) 243 = 0.038 6 1 = 1.53 customers

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s 1 ( ) n ( ) s + P0 = 1/ s! n =0 n ! 1 1 s

= 1/ 21.44 = 0.047

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s +1 ( ) Lq = P0 2 ( s 1) ! ( s ) 6 ( 60 20 ) = 0.047 60 2 4! ( 5 20 ) 729 = 0.047 24 4 = 0.35 customers

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S=4

Lq

S=5

Lq

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Balking

Occur when a customer arrives at a finite queue that is fully occupied Or when a customer decides not to join the queue because it is too long Occur when a customer leaves the system without being served Occur when a customer switches between queues thinking s/he will receive service faster by so doing

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Reneging

Jockeying

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Final Question

Supermarket Expressway Entrance Self Service Check-in at Airport (to a certain extent)

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