TO:  Interested  Parties   FROM:  Brock  McCleary,  Harper  Polling   DATE:  May  28,  2013   RE:  Key  Findings  from  the

 MN  Jobs  Coalition  Statewide  Survey     On  behalf  of  the  Minnesota  Jobs  Coalition,  Harper  Polling  conducted  a  survey  of   likely  voters  in  Minnesota.      Looking  ahead  to  next  year’s  gubernatorial  campaign,   41%  of  Minnesota  voters  say  Governor  Mark  Dayton  deserves  reelection.      47%   percent  would  prefer  to  give  someone  else  a  chance.       Dayton  Reelect   Deserves  Reelection  41%   Someone  New  47%   Not  Sure  11%     Both  men  (49%)  and  women  (46%)  prefer  to  give  someone  else  a  chance  rather   than  reelect  the  Governor.    Dayton’s  strongest  support  comes  from  those  66  years  of   age  and  older  who  support  his  reelection  at  55%.    Those  51-­‐to-­‐65  years  are  his   biggest  detractors  with  only  37%  saying  Dayton  deserves  reelection.     The  survey  found  Dayton  struggling  among  independent  voters.  A  majority,  52%  of   those  who  do  not  consider  themselves  a  Democrat  or  a  Republican,  prefer  someone   new  as  Governor.     Meanwhile,  a  majority  of  Minnesota  voters  give  a  thumbs-­‐down  to  the  job   performance  of  the  state  legislature.     State  Legislature  Job  Approval   Approve  30%   Disapprove  55%   Not  Sure  15%     Disapproval  of  the  legislature  is  highest  among  men,  with  57%  disapproving  of  the   legislature’s  performance.    Among  women,  53%  disapprove  of  the  job  being  done  by   the  legislature,  with  27%  approving  and  20%  not  sure.    Independent  voters   overwhelmingly  disapprove  at  62%.     With  state  legislative  elections  often  seen  as  a  referendum  on  the  sitting  Governor,   the  survey  asked  the  “motive”  generic  ballot  question.    When  voters  were  asked   whether  they  prefer  a  “Republican  who  will  be  a  check  and  balance  on  Governor   Dayton”  or  a  “Democrat  who  will  help  Governor  Dayton  pass  his  agenda”,   Republicans  hold  the  edge  though  they  fall  short  of  reaching  a  majority.          

  Republicans  do  best  among  male  voters,  with  46%  choosing  a  Republican  check  and   balance  and  36%  supporting  a  Democratic  ally  of  Dayton.  Forty-­‐one  percent  of   women  say  they  prefer  a  Republican  check  and  balance,  36%  say  they  prefer  a   Dayton  ally.     When  asked  about  Governor  Dayton’s  comments  that  legislators  are  underpaid  and   deserve  a  raise,  nearly  nine-­‐in-­‐ten  Minnesota  voters  disagreed.     Dayton  Pay  Raise  Statement   Support  4%   Oppose  89%   Not  Sure  7%     In  the  case  of  budget  deficits,  more  than  three-­‐quarters  of  voters  said  the  state   should  focus  more  on  cutting  spending  than  raising  taxes.     Cut  Spending  Or  Raise  Taxes  To  Solve  Deficit   Raise  Taxes  10%   Cut  Spending  78%   Not  Sure  12%     Minnesota  voters  strongly  oppose  raising  taxes  to  make  up  the  funding  shortfall  for   the  new  Minnesota  Vikings  stadium.     Raise  Taxes  For  Vikings  Stadium   Support  17%   Oppose  75%   Not  sure  8%     A  clear  majority  of  Minnesota  voters  oppose  plans  to  force  private  day  care  centers   into  a  union.     Unionization  of  Day  Care  Workers   Support  17%   Oppose  68%   Not  Sure  16%     A  majority  of  voters  opposed  the  budget  passed  by  the  legislature  and  Governor   Dayton  that  solved  a  $600  million  deficit  by  raising  taxes  by  $2  billion.        

State  Legislative  Motive  Generic  Ballot   Republican  Check  &  Balance  43%   Democrat  Ally  of  Dayton  36%   Not  Sure  20%  

  When  it  comes  to  raising  taxes,  more  than  half  of  voters  believe  higher  taxes  have  a   negative  impact  on  the  state’s  economy.     Impact  of  Raising  Taxes  on  State’s  Economy   Agree  54%   Disagree  35%   Not  Sure  11%       The  sample  size  for  the  survey  is  420  likely  Minnesota  voters  and  has  a  margin  of  error   of  +/-­‐  4.78%.  The  live  telephone  survey  was  conducted  on  May  22-­‐23,  2013  by  Harper   Polling  on  behalf  of  the  Minnesota  Jobs  Coalition.        

State  Budget  Approval   Support  24%   Oppose  61%   Not  Sure  14%  

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