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ANALYTICAL STUDY ON PRICE FLUCTUATION OF GOLD MARKET IN INTERNATIONAL WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO TOKYO INFO SOLUTION

PROJECT REPORT

Submitted by RAJ BALAN R Reg. No.: 710511631033 in partial fulfillment for the award of the degree of MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION IN (Finance & Marketing)
COIMBATORE INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY COIMBATORE - 641109.

June 2013

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COIMBATORE INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY

COIMBATORE - 641109.

Department of Management studies PROJECT WORK June 2013 This is to certify that the project entitled
ANALYTICAL STUDY ON PRICE FLUCTUATION OF GOLD MARKET IN INTERNATIONAL WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO TOKYO INFO SOLUTION

is the bonafide record of project work done by RAJ BALAN R Register No: 710511631033 of MBA (Finance & Marketing) during the year 2013.
--------------------Project Guide ----------------------Head of the Department

Submitted for the Project Viva-Voce examination held on ----------------------------------------Internal Examiner
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-----------------------External Examiner

DECLARATION
I affirm that the project work ANALYTICAL STUDY ON PRICE FLUCTUATION OF GOLD MARKET IN INTERNATIONAL WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO TOKYO INFO SOLUTION , Being

submitted in partial fulfillment for the award of MBA is the original work carried out by me. It has not formed the part of any other project work submitted for award of any degree or diploma, either in this or any other University.

RAJ BALAN R
(Reg. No.: 710511631033)

I certify that the declaration made above by the candidate is true

Ms. R. Ananthi Assistant Professor

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No. for we can really never forget the faith asserted in us by our esteemed Head of the Department Dr.R. I am very thankful for his incredible counseling and encouragement. I wish to place our profound sense of gratitude to our respected Director Dr.ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I wish to present my heartiest gratitude in the footsteps of my parents who have taken intense burden for my successful education career.) (Reg.K.Nagarajan for providing us with excellent facilities without which the project would never has been successful.Ananthi. for the support and valuable suggestions in completing this project without which this project would not have become true. Place: Date: (Raj Balan R. I would fail miserably in my duties if I do not maintain the service of her guidance Ms.T.Chinnaraju and our beloved Principal Dr.: 710511631033) 4 . The respect we shower would really be no match to describe in these words.Raju.A.N.

1 Introduction to the topic 1.2 suggestions 5.3 Objective of the study 1.LIST OF CONTENTS S.3 conclusion 6 BIBLIOGRAPHY PG.5 Limitations of the study 1.3 Methods of data collection 3.NO CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction 1.4 Scope of the study 3.1 Findings 5.2 Sampling 3.4 Statistical tools 4 5 DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION FINDINGS AND SUGGESTIONS 5.2 Gold Investment in India 2 3 4 REVIEW OF LITERATURE PROFILE OF THE STUDY AREA RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 3.NO 5 .

Calculation of seasonal indices by method of simple average for Gold.3 4.2 4.11 4.7 4. Calculation of seasonal indices by method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2009 Calculation of seasonal indices by method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2010 Calculation of seasonal indices by method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2011 Calculation of seasonal indices by method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2012 Calculation of seasonal indices by moving average method Calculation of Seasonal indices by method of least square for Gold PAGE NO 6 . Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2011.12 4.6 4. Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2010. Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2012.10 4.5 4.1 4.8 4.4 4. Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2009. Calculation of seasonal indices by method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2008.13 TABLE Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2008.9 4.NO 4.LIST OF TABLE S.

NO 4. Method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2008.7 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.5 4. Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2012. Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2009.1 4. Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2011.LIST OF CHARTS S.6 4. Method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2009 Method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2010 Method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2011 Method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2012 PAGE NO 7 .9 4.10 CHARTS Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2008.8 4. Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2010.

investment in internet industries. has increased substantially. although it is hard to segregate true investment from stocks held by the 16.000 or more gold dealers spread across India. which have proliferated from local refineries. Gold investment essentially was in 22 carat jewellery. This study will help the gold market to determine analysis price variations of investors. especially during the mid-1990s. It was also augmented in 1998 when over 40 tonnes (1. which was obtained by scheduled method. RESERVE BANK OF INDIA Since 1990.INTRODUCTION The study focus on “ANALYTICAL STUDY ON PRICE FLUCTUATION OF GOLD MARKET IN INTERNATIONAL WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO TOKYO INFO SOLUTION” an attempted made to evaluate the basic trading practices in gold market. GOLD INVESTMENT IN INDIA Until 1990. when the local rupee price increased steadily.2 million oz) in some years. There was physical investment in smuggled ten tola bars. GFMS estimate that investment has exceeded 100 tonnes (3. both imported ten tolas and locallymade small bars. 8 .3 million oz) of gold from bonds originally issued by the Reserve Bank of India were restituted to the public. Certainly gold has been used to conceal wealth. The study is based on secondary data. In the cities. In the rural areas 22 carat jewellery remains the basic investment. investment in small bars. but it was limited and often amounted to keeping a few bars ready to be made into jewellery for a family wedding. From a study determine price variation in gold market. and a wide range of consumer goods. however. gold has to compete with the stock market. the Gold Control Act forbade the private holding of gold bars in India.

INDIAN GOLD MARKET Indians have a huge fascination for gold. the amount of gold collected under this scheme (less than 10 tonnes or 0. To date. The banks can lend the gold to local fabricators or sell it in the Indian market or to local banks. Interest and any capital gains on the gold will be exempt from tax. India Gold Market looks poised to achieve greater heights given the fascination for gold in the country. Cutting Edge Automated Systems Will Make the Right. India consumes about 800 MT of gold which accounts to about 20% consumption of gold globally. More than 50% of this is used for making gold jewelry. religious and cultural life of Indians. Invest Today to Earn Maximum Interest from the Gold Market! Superior. and deposits must be for three to seven years.32 million) has fallen well short of the 100 tonnes (3. The State Bank of India was the first to accept deposits. so that metal bought illegally to hide wealth cannot be deposited. coins or jewellery against payment of interest.2 million) that was mentioned when it was launched. Benefits of investing • Earn interest within hours • Use the knowledge of experienced currency investors • No previous expertise required 9 . Gold plays a very important role in the social. Interest levels can be set by each bank. This is evident in the fact that India is the largest consumer as well as importer of gold in the world. However. the depositor has to declare the origin of the gold.THE GOLD DEPOSIT SCHEME The government announced a new initiative in its 1999/2000 budget to tap the hoard of private gold in India by permitting commercial ba nks to take gold deposits of bars.

79 billion was exported from the country. gems and jewelry worth US$ 17. During April 2008 to February 2009. making it the largest importer from the country. • To review the factors that affects the gold prices. • To calculate the Compound Growth Rate and then forecast for the year 2015. Hong Kong was the second largest importer with 25% followed by United States with 20%. • Data Analysis. The gem and jewelry industry accounts for more than 10% of India's total commodities exports. United Arab Emirates imported more than 30% of gems and jewelry from India. • To review whether international review of gold reserve (foreign exchange reserve) affects the gold prices or not.• Web-based – no download necessary • Advanced strategy management capabilities • Customise your portfolio to your preferred settings • 23 hour investments – make profits even when you are away from your computer SIZE OF INDIA GOLD MARKET The domestic India gold market is estimated to be more than US$15 billion and is expected to rise significantly in the coming years.Growth Rate • Growth rate chart • Price of gold and gold reserves Analysis GOLD CERTIFICATION IN INDIA: 10 . Objectives of gold fluctuation • To review the fluctuation in the gold prices.

Cupellation (Fire Assay Method) IS 2790 Guidelines for manufacture of 23. The festive and the wedding season in the country witnesses a heavy demand for gold. the gold consumption in the country during these times has not abetted. Both these factors determine the 11 . Gold alloys and Gold Jewelry/ Artefacts . Hallmarking of gold jewelry indicates the accurate finding out and official recording of the proportionate content of precious metals present in gold. The Bureau of Indian Standard or BIS was named by the Government as the lone agency in the country for providing hallmarking of gold jewelry under the provisions of the BIS Act.14 and 9 carat gold alloys IS 3095 Gold Solders for use in manufacture of Jewelry • • • FEATURES OF INDIAN GOLD MARKET: Though India is the leading consumer of gold in the world. Hallmark is the official mark used in several countries across the world as an assurance of purity or fineness of gold jewelry. the gold market in India is largely fragmented and unorganized. FACTORS AFFECTING INDIAN GOLD MARKET: The monsoons and the harvest of the country have a significant affect on the sale and purchase of gold in the country.21. Despite the global economic recession. Jewelry/Artefacts-Fineness and Marking IS 1418 Assaying of Gold in Gold Bullion. The marking is done either by laser marking machine or by punches. Due to the nonavailability of a benchmark price. 22.The government has taken steps to protect the public from buying adulterated gold. INDIAN STANDARDS ON GOLD AND GOLD ALLOY: • IS 1417 Grades of gold and gold alloys. Hallmarking of gold jewelry is one such step.18. the gold prices in India vary very much from region to region. 1986.

making them useful as infrared (radiant heat) shields in visors of heat-resistant suits.5 billion worth of gold and silver in first three quarters of FY12 itself. metals. because gold strongly reflects yellow and red. to control melting point or to create exotic colors (see below). However. These alloys can be produced to modify the hardness and other metallurgical properties. Purchasing gold and other precious metals on occasions like Akshaya Tritiya is considered to be auspicious. The transmitted light appears greenish blue. A government notification said customs and excise duties would be levied on the value of gold and silver instead of a fixed amount in January 2012. which is 53. RECENT HIKE IN EXCISE AND IMPORT DUTY: India is the largest importer of gold in the world. moisture and most corrosive reagents. it is unaffected by air. Gold is a good conductor of heat and electricity and reflects infrared radiation strongly. and in sunvisors for spacesuits.8% over the year-ago period. CHARACTERISTICS OF GOLD Gold is the most malleable and ductile of all metals. and is therefore well suited for use in coins and jewelry and as a protective coating on other. more reactive. 12 .amount of purchasing power that people will have. Gold readily creates alloys with many other metals. Such semi-transparent sheets also strongly reflect infrared light. which in turn decides on the amount of gold consumption and other consumptions as well. a single gram can be beaten into a sheet of 1 square meter. it is not chemically inert. India has imported $45. Chemically. Gold leaf can be beaten thin enough to become transparent. or an ounce into 300 square feet. The move is aimed at reducing the negative balance of payments position as gold and silver imports have grown tremendously in-spite of rise in its prices.

Gold ions in solution are readily reduced and precipitated out as gold medal by adding any other metal as the reducing agent. the density of lead is 11. with the outstanding total no more than 2. By comparison. COMPARE SUPPLY AND DEMAND STATISTICS WITH ESTIMATED LOANED GOLD LEVELS: According to the GFMS Gold Survey 2005 on levels of central bank loans in the gold market: “Since official lending peaked in 1999.700 tonnes (87 million)  Annual mine production has averaged roughly 2.” To put these levels of estimated gold loans in perspective.610 kg/m3.700 tonnes* (151 million ounces of gold) and 2.700 tonnes.300 kg. In addition.340 kg/m3.970 tonnes (95 million oz. in keeping with its resistance to corrosion (it is metal ions which confer taste to metals.500 tonnes in the last decade (80 million)  Net world investment in 2005 was 736 tonnes (23 million)  Official central bank sales in 2005 totaled 656 tonnes (21 million) 13 . we calculate that in 2005 official lending fell by a further 470 tonnes. the quantity provided to the market from central banks’ swaps and deposits has fallen sharply. osmium. The added metal is oxidized and dissolves allowing the gold to be displaced from solution and be recovered as a solid precipitate. compare the numbers of 4. a cubic meter weighing 19.970 tonnes by year end. Indeed. and that of the densest element. High quality pure metallic gold is tasteless and scentless. when according to our estimates it exceeded 4.) with other figures used by GFMS in calculating totals in the gold market:  Jewelry demand in 2005 was 2. is 22.Common oxidation states of gold include +1 (gold (I) or aurous compounds) and +3 (gold (III) or auric compounds). gold is very dense.

17s. The official U.K. and it remained effectively the same for two hundred years until 1914. YEAR 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 AVERAGE PRICE 383.75 per troy ounce. In 1972. set the gold price at L3. Also. The only exception was during the Napoleonic wars from 1797 to 1821.04 14 . Mint.11 271. the price was raised to $38 and then to $42.02 294. investment demand. as master of the U. GFMS estimates loan levels at one specific point in the year. 10d. Government gold price has changed only four times from 1792 to the present. essentially wiping out the usefulness of their own work in estimating loaned gold levels. HISTORICAL GOLD PRICES The price of gold remained remarkably stable for long periods of time. or jewelry demand. there is more loaned gold estimated to be in the market throughout the year than comes from annual mine production.79 387. per troy ounce in 1717. raised to $20.00 383.In other words. and $35 in 1934.77 384. and the market price for gold has been free to fluctuate since then as the table below shows.11 343. For example. GFMS is using a snapshot approach to explaining a gold loan market that changes on a daily basis. Sir Isaac Newton.51 362. A two-tiered pricing system was created in 1968.22 in 1973.81 331. then state that the target is a “constantly moving” one. yet the market does not reflect its impact because it is not accurately or completely reported.S. Starting at $19.24 278.67 in 1834.98 279.82 359.

571.995 being very pure.224.73 363.46 695.96 972. By 1961.35 1. it was becoming hard to maintain this 15 . The afternoon fixing was introduced in 1968 to provide a price when US markets are open.72 444.53 1. known as the millesimal fineness.00 per troy ounce ($1125.52 Like other precious metals. For a long period. it typically was a receipt redeemable for gold coin or bullion. when paper money was introduced. but in 1934 the dollar was devalued to $35. When it is alloyed with other metals the term carat or karat is used to indicate the purity of gold present. such as 0.38 409. originating in September 1919. In a monetary system known as the gold standard. The purity of a gold bar or coin can also be expressed as a decimal figure ranging from 0 to 1.56/kg). the United States government set the value of the US dollar so that one troy ounce was equal to $20. provides a daily benchmark price to the industry. Historically gold coinage was widely used as currency. but a procedure known as the Gold Fixing in London. a certain weight of gold was given the name of a unit of currency. gold is measured by troy weight and by grams.2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Price of the Gold 309.39 871.27/kg).74 603. The price of gold is determined through trading in the gold and derivatives markets.67 ($664. with 24 carats being pure gold and lower ratings proportionally less.

1968. and a two-tiered pricing scheme was established whereby gold was still used to settle international accounts at the old $35. as does the similarly laden U. from a high of $850/oz ($27. Bullion Depository at Fort Knox. On December 2. The largest gold depository in the world is that of the U. 2008 when a new maximum of $865. and a pool of US and European banks agreed to manipulate the market to prevent further currency devaluation against increased gold demand On March 17. Gold passed the important barrier of US$1200 per ounce to close at $1215.price. gold hit a new all-time high of $1432. Since 1968 the price of gold has ranged widely. 1999 (London Gold Fixing).300/kg) on January 21. 1980.900/kg).S. The period from 1999 to 2001 marked the "Brown Bottom" after a 20-year bear market.859 tonnes and demand to be 3. gold markets experienced renewed momentum upwards due to increased demand and a weakening US dollar.00 per troy ounce ($1. economic circumstances caused the collapse of the gold pool. In late 2009. In 2005 the World Gold Council estimated total global gold supply to be 3. 16 .35 per troy ounce was set.S.131/kg) on June 21. giving a surplus of 105 tonnes. based on investor concerns regarding ongoing unrest in North Africa as well as in the Middle East.90/oz ($8. 2009. to a low of $252.50/oz ($32. this two-tiered pricing system was abandoned in 1975 when the price of gold was left to find its free-market level. Prices increased rapidly from 1991.13/g) but the price of gold on the private market was allowed to fluctuate.57. Another record price was set on March 17. 2011. but the 1980 high was not exceeded until January 3. Central banks still hold historical gold reserves as a store of value although the level has generally been declining. Gold further rallied hitting new highs in May 2010 after the European Union debt crisis prompted further purchase of gold as a safe asset. On March 1. which holds about 3%of the gold ever mined. 2008 at $1023.754 tonnes. Federal Reserve Bank in New York.

3. Like a sector ETF. hitting a new all-time high of $1. track the performance of gold by including gold products like bullions in a trust that is used to cover the liabilities of the fund on an asneeded basis. 2. but used for many commodity ETFs as well. forwards. More Than Gold ETFs 17 .50 on August 23. This same construction strategy is not limited to gold ETFs. An example of gold ETN is DGP which tracks the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity index . 5. this type of gold ETF will track companies that heavily rely on gold as their core business.913. Gold ETFs That Contain Gold Futures Some types of gold ETFs are constructed differently to track the performance of gold. the nice thing is that there are both gold ETFs and gold ETNs. Gold Industry ETFs Another type of gold ETF consists of companies in the gold industry. Gold ETFs like IAU and GLD.Since April 2001 the gold price has more than quintupled in value against the US dollar. However. Gold ETNs While similar. there are differences between an ETF and an ETN. and options in order to emulate a gold index. GDX tracks the performance of the Amex Gold Miners Index which consists of companies in the gold mining industry. For example. so an investor has a choice if he or she prefers one over the other. 4. Gold ETF like DGL consists of derivatives like futures. 2011. Gold ETFs That Contain Gold Products The nice thing about gold ETFs is that you can invest in gold without actually buying gold doubloons and storing them in the attic safe. Types of gold ETF 1. prompting speculation that this long secular bear market has ended and a bull market has returned.Optimum Yield Gold Excess Return.

then there are types of gold ETFs than include multiple metal products. For example. a short gold ETF is uniquely constructed to inversely track the performance of a gold ETF index. So when you buy the ETF. Perfect for investors who want to short gold. 18 .There is no doubt that gold is a popular commodity and the most common precious metal. but has account or margin restrictions that prevent them from selling an ETF. A precious metal ETF like DBP. 6. So. if an investor is looking for exposure to more than one precious metal like silver or platinum. you earn a profit as the index drops in price. it may be time for gold investors to get started with exchange traded funds. when you purchase the GLL. With a nice selection of gold ETFs. it acts as if you sold the gold ETF. the Power Shares DB Precious Metals ETF may be a good fit for a portfolio looking for other precious metals tied to its gold investments. Short Gold ETFs Acting like an inverse ETF. an investor can reap the benefits of ETFs including the tax advantages. However.

48) and in puri district (13. A positive and non-significant growth rate is recorded this period. The rise in price is highest in balasoredistrict (15. marine fish landing in all the maritime districts have increased.05 indices per year respectively for bigger and smaller categories of investor. Thus. silver and bronze) by Mr. The price trend to rise continuously be 10.CHAPTER – II CONCEPTS AND REVIEW OF LITERATURE The growth rate of commodity market is positive and statistically highly significant”. dibakarnaik in the year 2006.58 indices and 8.this topic was done by mr. Mr. in commodity market there are plenty of unutilized resource (bronze) which are not tapped up fully due to inadequate investment. In 1998 Mr. The investor of the commodity need not feel that there is no generation of surplus in profit. Referred from the project titled An Economic Analysis of commodity market in India. The highest growth rate is recorded in balasore district (11.dr. Peter Alfred has done research on the following topic “Investor investment decision based on price fluctuation of the gold in gold market”. Particularly. The surplus generated in it would be far better than agriculture whose developed had started a century ago”.42) respectively for bigger and smaller categories of investor’s. Referred from research report A Comparative study between commodity(gold. parasuram has done project regarding “Higher fluctuating commodity in indian market” 19 .mantogotsi.01per cent) during the period.

poonamgupta student ofS. Some people have fear of stock market in their mind. various factor in the farm of sector can better manage their activities in an environment of unstable prices through gold markets.” “Volatility in Indian gold market”this was project title done by Mr. Referred from M. the market is efficient to any news and information.” “A study of commodity (gold) market in India” this was the topic done by Ms. BIBIN JOHNhe has finally stated that “Apart from increasing the stability of market. 20 .s Palanvidhi management student who had done a project regarding. “To know about satisfaction level of investors with their broking firm.” Mr.He has concluded that ‘the price of the gold fluctuated more widely than other commodities. People are not aware of the benefits of trading in gold so lots need to be done in this direction they generally prefers safe & risk less investment avenue. k.TRIVEDI KARTIK DINESHCHANDERA student of GUJARAT UNIVERSITY has done a project titled “WHAT MATTERS TO COMMODITY MARKET : IS IT SCALE OR IS GROWTH” he has concluded that “ Any fluctuation in foreign market has more effect on Indian stock market than that of domestic market and in the given volatile economic conditions. and can be used to lock –in prices instead of relying on uncertain price developments. With futures trading being introduced in most commodities it is not a good idea to have future trading without an effective guaranteeing mechanism. ‘the focus today gas to be on how the gold markets need to be organized. These markets serve a risk-shifting function. school of business management(Gujarat) In this project she has conclude that.

published an article “ Strong volume growth” state that “the Raw Material cost (as a percentage of sales net of stock adjustment) decrease from 72 % to 70 %.Barathsing has explained clearly in his project titled “A Final report on commodity market” Capital Market (February 2006).pay low margin to enjoy large exposure  Liquidity .“RECENT TRENDS IN GOLD MARKET” This topic was done by Mr.price risk management by risk mitigation  Speculation . the Indian economy is likely to continue to do well in the next 5 years. We do think that the economic is at the early stages of development and with infrastructure growth underway.ease of entry and exit of market 21 .ROHIT student of ICFAI Delhi. it increased the profit to the manufacturers in Two Wheeler industry”. In this project he has concluded “That Positive economic growth and strong foreign inflows were two of the many factor that have propelled the indianbourse in past three years (2009-2011). Objectives and benefits of commodity futures are as follows  Hedging .” People still considering that to invest in gold market is very risky and considering gold market for speculation rather than business purpose. staff cost from 4 % to 3 % and other expenditure from 10 % to 9 %. Meaning and Objectives of commodity futures A commodity futures contract is a contractual agreement between two parties to buy or sell a specified quantity and quality of commodity at a certain time in future at a certain price agreed at the time of entering into the contract on the commodity futures exchange. The whole industry is highly sensitive towards national and international’s environmental and political factors Mr.take advantage of favourable price movements  Leverage .

Difference between Cash and Future market Cash market is the market for buying and selling physical commodity at a negotiated price. Delivery of the commodity takes place during a future delivery period of the contract if the option of delivery is exercised. Price discovery . In commodity futures. Delivery of the commodity takes place immediately. Difference between Futures and Forward contract By Definition: Futures contract is an agreement between two parties to buy or sell a specified quantity and quality of asset at a certain time in future at a certain price agreed at the time of entering into the contract on the futures exchange. Futures market is the market for buying and selling standardized contract of the commodity at a pre-determined price. it is necessary to distinguish between investment commodities and consumption commodities. 22 . An investment commodity is generally held for investment purposes whereas consumption commodities are held mainly for consumption purposes. Gold and Silver can be classified as investment commodities whereas oil and steel can be classified as consumption commodities.for taking farming and business decisions  Price stabilization along with balancing demand and supply position  -Facilitates integrated price structure  Flexibility. certainty and transparency in purchasing commodities facilitate bank financing  Facilitates 'informed' lending by the banks The primary objectives for any futures exchange are effective price discovery and efficient price risk management.

Trading place: Futures contract is entered on the centralized trading platform of the exchange. making counter party risk nil.Forward contract is an agreement entered between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a future date for an agreed price. which is called ‘Novation’. Forward contract is not traded on an exchange. valuation of open position is not calculated on a daily basis and there is no provision of ‘Mark-to-Market’ margin requirement. Size of the forward contract is customized as per the terms of agreement between the buyer and seller. Liquidity: Futures contract is more liquid as it is traded on the Exchange. Size of the contract: Futures contract is standardized in terms of quantity and quality as specified by the exchange. Valuation of open position and margin requirement: In case of futures contract. Forward contract is less liquid due to its customized nature and mutual trade. as it is not publicly disclosed. Contract price of forward contract is not transparent. Transparency in contract price: Contract price of futures contract is transparent as it is available on the centralized trading screen of the exchange. In forward contract. 23 . In case of forward contract. valuation of open position is calculated as per the official closing price on a daily basis and ‘Mark-to-Market’ margin requirement exists. Forward contract is OTC in nature. counter party risk is high due to decentralized nature of the transaction. Counter party risk: In futures contract the Clearing House becomes a counter party to each transaction.

Regulations: Futures contract is regulated by a government regulatory authority and the Exchange. 24 . Forward contract. or reverse cash and carry arbitrage opportunity. depending on the commodity futures contract specification. at designated delivery centres of the Exchange. Delivery in case of forward contract is carried out at delivery centre specified in customized bilateral agreement. Participants in Commodity derivatives: Hedgers: Hedgers are interested in transferring risk associated with transacting or carrying underlying physical asset. Settlement: Futures contract can be settled in cash or physical delivery. Arbitragers lock in profit when they spot cash and carry arbitrage opportunity. with the objective of correctly predicting the market movement. Delivery: Delivery tendered in case of futures contract should be of a standard quantity and quality as per contract specifications. Forward contract is generally settled by physical delivery.. is not regulated by any authority or exchange. Arbitragers: Arbitragers are interested in locking in a minimum risk profit by simultaneously entering into transactions in two or more markets. Commodity futures allow speculators to create high leveraged positions to undertake calculative risk. Speculators: Speculators are interested in making money by taking a view on future price movements.

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business partners. Overseas branches: United Kingdom. positioning our self to lead the next phase of growth for these industrial and financial markets’ sectors. we aim to be trusted as a corporate that respond to the diverse of stakeholders. With strong capabilities matched by high standards of professionalism.Medan. our shareholders enjoy our exceptional turnover and financial performance and our devoted staffs maintain the historical hallmark of our financial strengths and prudence. Philippines. Tokyo info solution is a financial market services and consultant and advisor of company. the INTER PAN PASIFIK HOLDING is Indonesia company. including shareholders. Semarang and Kendari. the pan pacific company is doing various services like India Tata company. VISION & MISSION To transform inter pan pacific holdings into one of Indonesia’s leading multi business and financial institution with international standards. Middle East. We have operation in all major financial centers as well as strong presence in South East Asia. Europe and America. and gives back something of value to the country. 2 lacks from each of its members. Taiwan. Bogor. customers. and employees. Bandung. India and Thailand. its free cost of providing to join INTER PAN PASIFIK holding and get a benefit. MEMBERSHIP PROFILE Tokyo info solution is one of the part of inter pan pacific holding. they have companies in twelve countries including India. As per SEBI norms CSE charges an initial deposit of Rs. British. Based on the volume of trade each member is to 26 . Solo. Offering our exceptional products and services.

Online trading. VISION To be forward in thinking and in action in the delivery of investment solutions to Tokyo Info Solutions Clients To be a truly active manager of innovative and thoughtful investment themes. They are allowed to appoint their assistants or sub-brokers based on the guidelines given by SEBI.contribute additional deposits. innovative & sustainable platform to the clients in which the interests of Tokyo Info solutions staff. Commodities. are truly aligned. Here no subscription charge by every trade they will charge such commission based on buy and sell. and institutional investors & corporate houses. targeting an investor base of non-institutional investors including high net-worth individuals. Tokyo Info Solutions offer its customers a wide range of equity related services including trade execution on BSE. Tokyo Info Solutions believes that it has the ability to recognize investment opportunities. To provide a positive and motivating workplace environment where the employees achieve intellectual. ABOUT TOKYO INFO SOLUTION Tokyo Info Solutions advises schemes. practical and overall career growth to be India's 27 . stakeholders stake-holders & investors & staff. which help raise capital and deploy the same in a manner designed to maximize long-term value. with a focus on adding value to their wealth to enhance exit valuations on behalf of investors to provide a long term. Investment advice. and Derivatives. etc. NSE. The Tokyo Info Solutions business attributes its success to constantly listening to investors and responding to their needs with innovative investor friendly products.

premier wealth management consultant & Advisory.  We are a professionally managed business house and are not aligned or bear allegiance to any corporate group. professional and straightforward. 28 . We take immense pride in the professional quality of our work. and deliver consistent superior returns to our investors.  We believe in upholding and creating world class standards of corporate governance. provide strategic and operational support to our business partners. the name ‘Tokyo Info Solutions’ was chosen as it symbolizes passing every conquered achievement and setting the next one as the new target With every fund closing beyond set benchmarks. To build a new wealth paradigm based on strategic and operational support to our business partners to be known for creating and managing innovative market leading products tailored to Indian markets & globally. Tokyo info solutions strives to reach & surpass the next milestone in wealth management excellence. TRAINING AND SERVICES  We are a group of professionals and believe in working in a manner that is ethical. MISSION Since each successful clients decision & every smiling investor only pushes the group to set newer & higher targets for achievement.

To ensure that the processes are monitored. The QMS is controlled by effective documentation and ongoing monitoring of Top Management. We are uncompromising in including the highest degree of honesty and integrity in all our actions. Professionalism. The Quality Management System (QMS) Established at Tokyo Info Solutions is laid on the concept of process methodology approach and accordingly all the process is identified. THE STATEMENT OF QUALITY POLICY MENTION BELOW: • Tokyo Info Solutions India Private Limited. Tokyo Info Solutions combines its human & technical resources in the most innovative manner. • With a view to meet all necessary Industry Standards & applicable Legal & Regulatory benchmarks. Independence and Trust. 29 . process quantifiers are established through Business Operating System. its affiliates & joint ventures strive to meet & exceed Customer Satisfaction across all their businesses. through a system of transparent dealing & information flow. in order to provide world class quality services in all areas of its operations and continually improving the effectiveness of the quality management system . measured and performance is analyzed.  We want to partner with professional individuals and organizations who we believe have the requisite experience & expertise in the sectors we invest in We base our entire work on the values of Integrity. Collaboration.

timing of trading. fixation. arbitration settlement of dispute WEALTH MANAGEMENT PHILOSOPHY As various sectors driven by consumer consumption continue to grow at a rapid pace.• Tokyo Info Solutions aims to achieve and sustain market leadership in the area of alternative asset investment advisory services. regulation of badla or carryover business. 1957. of margins. the byelaws of the exchange give guidelines on opening / closing of TOKYO INFO SOLUTION . which significantly enhances the chances of success of the portfolio companies and project Investment teams at Tokyo Info Solutions apply their experience in hands on way to ensure that investors’ interests and objectives are vigorously pursued in all situations. They are focused on 30 . (SCR) 1956. one government and three public representatives. The operations of any Stock Exchange can commerce only with the recognition of the central government under the securities contract regulation act. Tokyo info solutions strives to be a truly active manager of investments. The council of management appoints Executive Director and is an ex-office member of the council. The council of management is constituted with 13 members of whom 6 are elected from among the members of Tokyo info solution 2 persons nominated by EBI. The various regulations concerning the listing of companies and the trading related activities are provided under SCR rules. MANAGEMENT OF TOKYO INFO SOLUTION The policy level Management of Tokyo info solution is vested with the council of management. making of prices.

Moving from a pure financing model to an investing model. Continuous monitoring of operations & finances of portfolio companies. As it expands its investments platform. strengthening systems. investors. controls & corporate governance in line with best practices help in garnering returns even during recessionary time. fund managers at Tokyo Info Solutions work closely with investee companies to provide strategic/operational inputs in helping to grow the entity. which will benefit Tokyo Info Solution’s clients in the long term. Tokyo Info Solutions believes that its reputation & market position will lead to newer complementary investment strategies and opportunities across various sectors WEALTH MANAGEMENT NUTURING The differentiating aspect of Tokyo Info Solution’s investment management style is to build long term profitable returns on investments through Investment Nurturing. investments and strives to be the leader in corporate governance and communication transparency with all stakeholders. 31 .identifying new complementary investment strategies and opportunities across various sectors. Tokyo Info Solutions prides itself for the list and quality of clients. This unique combination is the basis for building market leading and sustainable businesses. Tokyo Info Solutions seeks to have a platform which investors within India and across the globe trust to deliver consistently high returns through a stringent selection process and a high quality nurturing team.

ORGANZATION STUCTURE OF TOKYO INFO SOLUTION DEPARTMENTS  Finance department  Administration department  Marketing department  Surveillance  Legal department  System department 32 .

Bangalore stock exchanges 3. The third Stock exchange in the state of Gujarat the Vadodara Stock Exchange Ltd was incorporated in 1990. when the Amsterdam Stock Exchange was set up. a second Stock Exchange by the name The Bengal Share& Stock Exchange Ltd. On 29 th April 1959. The Hyderabad Stock Exchange Ltd. The Lahore Stock Exchange was formed in the year 1934. Was established in the year 1937 and likewise once again in the year 1938. Ahmedabad stock exchange 2.INDUSTRY PROFILE The origin of the stock market relates back to the year 1494. one stock exchange was established in Northern India and one in Madras called ”The Madras Stock Exchange”. Was incorporated in the year 1944. In India it dates back to the 18 th century and era when the East India Company was a dominant Institution in India. was established in the year 1941. the Lahore Stock Exchange merged with it. it was reorganized as a company limited by guarantee under the name and style of madras Stock Exchange (MSE). In the year 1920. Bombay also witnessed a rival Stock Exchange formed in the name of Indian Stock Exchange ltd.P. The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) was founded in the year 1875. STOCK EXCHANGES IN INDIA 1. However in the year after the Punjab Stock Exchange Ltd came into existence. In Calcutta. Subsequently the Bangalore stock exchange was registered in the year 1957 and recognized in the year 1963. the U. The Madras Stock Exchange Association Pvt Ltd. About 150 brokers formed the Ahmedabad Shares and Stock Association on 15 June 1908. Bhubaneswar stock exchange 33 .

4. Bombay stock exchange 5. Calcutta stock exchange 6. Cochin stock exchange 7. Coimbatore stock exchange 8. Delhi stock exchange 9. Hyderabad stock exchange 10. Indore stock exchange 11. Kanpur stock exchange 12. Ludhiana stock exchange 13. Madras stock exchange 14. NSE 15. OTCEI

OVER THE COUNTER EXCHAGE OF INDIA Promoted by a consortium of leading Financial Institutions of India including Unit Trust of India (UTI), Industrial Credit & Investment Corporation of India (ICICI), Industrial Development Bank of India (IDBI), Industrial Financial Corporation of India (IFCI), Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) and others, OTCEI is a recognized stock Exchange under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956. It is set up to provide small and medium sized companies’ access to the capital markets and to investors a convenient mode of investments. It is ring less electronic national exchange listing an entirely new set of companies which companies will not be listed on other stock exchanges. The companies listed on any other exchanges cannot be listed on OTCEI. The OTCEI Exchange can list companies with issued capital from Rs. 30lakhs to Rs.25 cores.
34

THE BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE Nine Elected Directors ( one-third of which retire every year by rotation), and Executive Director, three Government Nominees, a Reserve Bank of India Nominee and five public representatives constitute the Governing Board of this Exchange which regulates the Exchange and decides its policies. A president, a Vice president and Hon. Treasurer are annually elected from among the elected Directors by the governing Board following the election of Directors. The Executive Director as the Chief Executive Officer is responsible for the day-to-day administration of the Exchange.

THE NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE (NSE) The National Stock Exchange considered as arrival exchange to the Bombay Stock Exchange is India’s leading Stock Exchange covering more than 160cities and towns across the country. It provides a modern fully computerized trading system designed to offer investors across the length and breadth of the country a safe and easy way to invest or liquidate investment in securities. It was incorporated in November 1992, recognized as a Stock Exchange in April 1993, went live for debt markets in June 1994 and commenced capital Market Operations in November 1994. Today it is the largest exchange in India with a network that trades 1400 equity stocks and 500 debt securities.

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CHAPTER - IV RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Research methodology explains how research is done scientifically. Research methodology considers the logic behind the methods used in the context of research and explains what particular technique has been used for the purpose of analysis.

Statement of the problem To analyze the price variations of the Gold in Commodity market for the particular time period. It is beneficial to the investor, when the investor invest in gold market.

NEED FOR STUDY  This study aims at investigating the current price trend in the gold market.  This study is aimed at helping the originations to reduce the risk of loss to customers by providing detailed information about the price variation in the market.  In the present scenario the volatility in the market has increased a lot investor requires a mechanism to protect themselves from various kinds of risk price fluctuation of gold and counterpart risk.  This study helps in providing the report on the price fluctuation of gold.

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2) To find out unexpected changes which have undesirable effects on gold market. SECONDARY OBJECTIVES: 1) To find out the fluctuations in supply and demand on either the international market in relation with price and or availability of gold. except Actionable Claims Money and Securities. SCOPE OF THE STUDY: A commodity may be defined as an article. 4) To find out the effectiveness of price and brokers interventions on gold. a product or material that is bought and sold. OBJECTIVES FOR THE STUDY: PRIMARY OBJECTIVE: To find out the price variations of gold in commodity market for the past five years. hassle free trading experience . the investors an easy. This in turn increases the savings and investments’ in the long run. This study may increase the volume traded in markets because of participation of Riskaverse people in greater numbers. It can be classified as every kind of movable property. Moreover it also helps in the discovery of future as well as current prices. This study offers. To provide adequate information regarding the market volatility to their clients so as to safeguard them from huge loss. 3) To measure the trend analysis and seasonal indices. Gold future are contracts in permitted gold entered in to through a recognized gold market and where the settlement is done at the maturity date either through delivery of the goods or by cash.whether trading is done daily or occasionally the originations can keep in 37 .

Some people have fear of stock market in their mind. 38 . Secondary data: Secondary data refers to the information or facts already collected. this research helps the organization in fulfilling those attitude. Altogether this study helps the organization to provide better customer satisfaction and build up better competitive strategy in the present market scenario. TYPES OF RESEARCH: ANALYTICAL RESEARCH The researcher has to use facts or information already available and analyze that fact to make a critical evaluation of the financial performance. this study will also be required for such things.touch with the customer by sending regular tips and update regarding the market situation. People are not aware of the benefits of trad ing in derivatives so lots need to be done in this direction they generally prefers safe & risk less investment avenue. Such data are collected with the objective of understanding the past status of any variable or the data collected and the reported by some source is accessed and used for the objective of a study. this study helps in transferring risk from risk aware people to risk oriented people. Particularly. Such data are collected. in gold market there are plenty of unutilized resources (Bronze) which are not tapped up fully due to inadequate investment. Every investor’s attitude regarding price are different. Tools for Data collection: In this study secondary data collection method has been used to collect data. In this project all the details and data’s are collected secondary data only. This study provides worth full reports to the investors so that one can take the right investment decisions regardless of their investing preferences.

Source and method of data collection The data utilized for the study was obtained through secondary data. SEASONAL INDICES Seasonal indices refer to such movements in a time series which are due to forces which a rhythmic in nature and which repeat themselves periodically in every season. METHOD OF LEAST SQUARE This is the best method of obtaining the trend values. We have used two methods of trend analysis METHOD OF MOVING AVERAGE Moving average is simple device of reducing fluctuations and obtaining trend values with a fair accuracy. • Method of moving average • Method of least square  Seasonal indices. 39 . The data was extracted from the Tokyo info solution trading reports. It provides a convenient basis for obtaining the line of best fit in series.6 TOOLS USED FOR ANALYSIS The major tools used in this analysis were  Trend analysis. 4. TREND ANALYSIS Trend analysis is used to find out the fluctuations or movements by nature by nature in order to predict the future.

4. 40 . Data only for 6 months has been analyzed.  It is difficult to know the future movements of gold market as only data for 6 month has been analyzed.7 Limitations of the study  The primary data collected is restricted only to Tokyo info solution.  The major limitation of the study is that the data‘s are mostly secondary in nature as it is taken from Tokyo info solution. The major limitation is that the gold market fluctuates according to the present world’s condition.  This was insufficient to cover the various area at stipulated time.  As the gold market fluctuates now and then the forecasting may not be correct for future. so cannot be analyzed accurately.  The major concern of research was the project duration which was only 6 month.

Interdependent. It is the task of interpretation to find out a link (or) a position of the study in the whole analytical framework.IV ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETAION OF DATA Analysis and interpretation are central steps in the research process. the meanings and implications of the study become clear. analysis and interpretation occupy the last stage of the research process they occupy the first stage since the necessary theoretical and practical knowledge of the future shape of the result is acquired much before the actual work is undertaken. Both are thus. Jahada and cook have defined it in the following words. chronologically. Analysis is not complete with out interpretation and interpretation cannot proceed without analysis. It is very important step in the total procedure of research. Interpretation is the search for the broader meaning of research findings. Through interpretation. 41 . Interpretation is by no means a Mechanical process it calls for a critical Examination of the results of one’s analysis in the light of all the limitations of his data gathering. Although. This search has two major aspects. interpretation leads to the establishment of explanatory concepts. there is the effort to establish continuity in social research through linking the results of one study with those of another secondly. it connects the findings with the established theories (or) the available stock of knowledge in a particular area of research.CHAPTER . The goal of analysis is to summaries the collected data in such a way that they provide answers to the question that triggered the research. First. “Scientific interpretation seeks for relationship between the data of a study and between the study findings and other scientific knowledge”. In fact Interpretation can be conceived of as a part of analysis.

4 0 844.30 917.20 988.90 1032.60 743.7 0 818.85 105.40 975.09 87.60 935.89 90.7 0 887.4 0 High 936.7 0 741.0 0 926.00 105.8 0 699.9 0 857.10 814.5 0 876.2 0 913.00 926.3 0 952.76 82.70 Fixed trend Moving trend 0 0 105.00 98.2 0 681.860 98.29 98.50 879.71 94.6 0 726.4 0 884.54 86.9 0 772.60 876.57 Close 926.8 0 862.00 42 .20 Low 833.70 924.17 95.70 914.00 972.4 0 893.67 95.2 0 915.76 99.9 0 878.64 108.9 0 736.5 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total AVG 0 925.74 101.88 94.96 95.60 886.30 112.75 89.50 890.9 0 973.60 830.55 1098.2 0 871.70 878.1: Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for gold Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2008 Date Open 1 833.58 1038.10 935.79 91.40 931.30 915.0 0 10542.TABLE 5.88 78.40 830.15 104.00 94.2 0 833.3 0 904.

43 .

1: Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2008 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 fixed trend moving trend INFERENCE: From the above table it is inferred that in fixed trend prices starts at 105.CHART NO 5. This shows a decreasing trend. On the other trend in moving average its starts at 105.00 and fluctuates but at last it close at 108.00. 44 .00 and fluctuates drastically at last it closes at 95.00. It is shows the volatility situation.

50 978.85 1007.71 112.24 118.25 45 .10 978.15 11813.50 Close 926.00 886.90 1179.50 917.62 105.35 986.05 971.90 926.42 Fixed trend 0 101.TABLE 5.50 1174.90 Moving trend 0 101.03 95.75 127.05 905.15 1098.90 889.20 1226.80 959.56 110.95 103.60 1041.00 932.20 883.13 1119.70 886.20 1005.60 980.10 918.70 942.10 1043.61 108.37 96.63 100.71 99.20 913.60 939.2: Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for gold Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2009 Date 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total AVG Open 884.20 High 929.00 989.70 880.30 925.15 930.71 112.92 102.50 1007.71 97.75 950.80 864.90 99.85 953.75 954.70 967.30 946.74 97.45 1044.85 1179.47 94.60 950.90 1070.00 984.70 105.68 102.40 924.15 1074.02 102.85 1023.85 93.80 1195.03 93.35 Low 801.

46 .There is a down trend in the last time period.71 and fluctuates drastically at last it closes at 118.2: Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2009 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Fixed trend 7 8 9 10 11 12 Moving trend INRERENCE: From the above table it is inferred that in fixed trend is starts at 101.13.CHART NO 5. On the other trend in moving average its starts at 101.71 and fluctuates but at last it close at 93.50. This shows a increasing trend.

00 Total AVG 47 .80 103.76 102.85 1249.75 1174.95 1418.15 1196.80 1236.10 1084.83 128.45 1213.52 99.00 1424.45 1157.20 14838.60 1117.30 1236.25 1113.30 1156.40 1130.85 102.24 109.3: Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for gold Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2010 Date 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Open High Low 1073.70 1387.25 Close 1078.85 1114.95 1111.30 1116.15 1247.80 10 1306.20 1179.40 95.35 1181.02 1096.90 1080.05 1180.45 1361.52 1276.85 1161.90 1044.45 115.05 11 1359.00 1242.65 1325.73 105.33 1128.TABLE NO 5.60 1177.22 94.65 1356.57 Fixed trend 0 103.25 1215.49 115.27 125.00 1243.80 1181.38 112.52 103.34 Moving trend 0 103.13 106.90 1265.00 1431.80 1370.25 12 1386.95 102.30 1144.95 1249.72 121.25 1315.19 109.50 1305.73 104.80 1385.15 102.02 105.53 131.00 1242.75 1247.

3: Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2010 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Fixed trend Moving trend INRERENCE: From the above table it is referred that in fixed trend is starts at 103.CHART NO 5.33. On the other trend in moving average its starts at 103.52 and fluctuates drastically at last it closes at 131. This shows a increasing trend. 48 .52.52 and fluctuates but at last it close at 102.

65 1522.45 115.87 121.00 1535.60 High 1423.05 1572.00 1609.90 1562.41 109.TABLE 5.65 1412.50 1762.68 131.80 1752.80 1567.92 136.59 121.10 1410.55 1538.52 1119.55 1613.65 1478.05 93.10 1823.95 1748.95 1432.35 1490.47 108.30 1622.20 1500.64 101.85 1920.86 89.27 88.05 1632.71 Moving trend 0 105.80 1624.60 1569.95 1380.35 1564.38 98.88 101.4 Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for gold Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2011 Fixed Date 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total AVG Open 1420.70 1418.29 112.50 1713.38 117.52 112.35 97.42 trend 0 105.25 1576.30 1802.99 105.95 1824.60 1595.06 117.95 Low 1308.05 1324.50 1430.65 1714.45 1410.49 109.70 1332.81 128.80 1499.10 1745.25 49 .30 1532.90 18869.65 1666.10 1447.88 107.55 Close 1332.40 1623.45 1911.33 1316.50 1462.45 1558.

50 .89 and fluctuates but at last it close at 89.CHART NO 5. On the other trend in moving average its starts at 105.52.89 and fluctuates drastically at last it closes at 117. It shows that volatility situation. This shows a decreasing trend.4: Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2011 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Moving trend 9 10 11 12 Fixed trend INRERENCE: From the above table it is referred that in fixed trend is starts at 105.33.

6 0 1787.5: Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for gold Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2012 Date 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total AVG Open 1569.87 97.03 98.74 93.6 0 1669.99 98.5 0 1723.4 5 1672.47 100.4 5 20104.2 0 Low 1567.6 0 1683.22 51 .5 5 1613.33 99.81 104.4 5 1584.0 0 1686.60 1614.9 0 1713.72 88.4 5 1635.97 104.75 102.58 95.36 Close 1738.Table no 5.06 1096.1 0 1692.34 91.76 91.10 1598.1 5 1640.8 0 High 1747.2 5 1671.75 1668.74 89.40 1665.7 5 1770.40 1720.7 5 1690.0 5 1685.45 1713.8 5 1664.7 0 1598.10 1696.84 Moving trend 0 97.6 0 1627.4 0 1698.97 92.62 98.8 5 1544.85 1675.8 0 1629.4 0 1695.70 Fixed trend 0 97.4 5 1559.59 97.10 1560.33 102.9 5 1719.83 97.40 1664.10 1691.3 5 1795.9 5 1612.2 0 1526.01 99.98 95.4 0 1790.0 5 1737.6 5 1554.75 1773.7 5 1754.4 0 1725.62 95.40 1056.

5: Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2012 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Fixed trend Moving trend INFERENCE From the above table its referred that in fixed trend is starts at 97.CHART NO 5. And fluctuates but at last it close at 97. This shows a decreasing trend.22.62and fluctuates drastically at last it closes at 95. It shows that there is a volatility situation.62.84. 52 . On the other trend in moving average its starts at 97.

48 Seasonal indices 69.57 1572.AVG=(∑AVG/5)= 1269.58 984.48 Seasonal indices = (AVG/G.98 Seasonal deviations 390.40 6347.72 AVG 878.60 15233.38 1269.41 123.00 14838.90 11813. The deviation of market is high during last week of every month.06 32.AVG)*100 Seasonal deviation=(G.05 20104. the gold is starts low in first year of every month and gradually increases.91 -302.6 Calculation of seasonal indices by method of simple average for Gold Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ∑AVG G.86 131.90 285.42 1236.94 -405.55 97.42 1675. At the last year of every month the market for gold goes to the peak position.21 77.TABLE 5. 53 .93 CALCULAIONS G.80 18869.AVG – AVG) INFERENCE: From the above table it is inferred that.AVG Total 10542.85 76168.

40 2416.90 2764.70 3moving total Centered month average 937.70 924.50 879.60 876.80 805.70 914.40 830.10 814.57 810.60 743.00 2725.20 2417.80 2669.70 878.60 886.00 908.00 972.97 921.Table 5.60 889.70 2432.80 2623.40 805.97 896.50 2678.30 54 .30 915.50 892.93 874.77 3 2813.90 2688.7 Calculation of seasonal indices by method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2008 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 926.

55 . This shows a decreasing trend.6: Method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2008 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1 0 937.97 921.97 and fluctuates drastically at last it closes at 805.97 896 908.77.CHART NO 5.5 892.57 810.8 805.77 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 3-D Colum n1 INFERENCE From the above table it’s referred that in three month moving average is starts at 937.6 889.93 874.4 805.

10 3003.15 56 .15 1107.50 917.30 2782.70 942.62 953.90 926.8 Calculation of seasonal indices by method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2009 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 926.70 1001.50 2831.97 915.20 3231.85 953.90 2746.85 2859.57 930.10 978.Table 5.45 3322.7 1077.50 2912.75 950.45 1044.70 886.17 943.83 970.43 927.38 3 2786.85 1179.50 1007.15 3moving total Centered month average 928.70 2791.15 1098.

17 943. This shows a decreasing trend.97 915.43 927.62 953.83 970.57 930.7 1077.15 1107.38 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 INFERENCE From the above table it’s referred that in three month moving average is starts at 928.7 1001. 57 .CHART NO 5.97 and fluctuates drastically at last it closes at 1107.38.7: Method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2009 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 1 0 2 928.

58 1136.9 Calculation of seasonal indices by method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2010 Centered month average 1102.08 1350.65 1356.25 1113.98 3 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1078.55 1211.25 4050.40 4160.30 1168.90 3505.80 1370.95 58 .00 3735.65 3634.80 1385.05 1180.95 1418.33 1245.30 1116.20 1304.Table 5.75 3408.50 1211.73 1223.60 3912.45 1213.13 1386.30 3635.20 1179.20 3670.15 1247.20 3moving total 3307.00 1242.

This shows a decreasing trend.98.731223.98 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 3-D Colum n1 INFERENCE From the above table it’s referred that in three month moving average is starts at 1102.08 1386.CHART NO 5.8: Method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2010 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 1 0 2 3 1102.13 1245.3 1350.33 1168.58 1211.2 1304.55 1136.58 and fluctuates drastically at last it closes at 1386. 59 .51211.

07 1690.65 5022.02 1720.38 1554.55 1538.47 1511.35 1564.15 4662.23 1534.02 1694.70 4947.98 1468.50 1430.30 3 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1332.23 1649.70 4603.65 1714.80 1624.80 1499.90 3moving total 4172.40 4533.90 1562.30 1622.22 1674.05 5160.Table 5.10 1823.10 1745.95 4405.10 1410.10 Calculation of seasonal indices by method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2011 Centered month average 1390.05 5082.90 60 .20 5070.

23 1554.CHART NO 5.02 1694. This shows a decreasing trend.3 1534.98 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 3-D Colum n1 INFERENCE From the above table it’s referred that in three month moving average is starts at 1390.9: Method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2011 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 1 1720.98 and fluctuates drastically at last it closes at 1674. 61 .07 1511.30.22 1674.23 1468.38 1649.47 1390.02 1690.

10 1560.11 Calculation of seasonal indices by method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2012 Centered month average 1701.60 1614.60 4822.10 1598.40 1720.40 1664.75 1699.80 4904.08 1676.45 5079.25 5099.75 1773.60 1590.55 62 .10 1691.87 1607.30 1630.82 1693.08 1728.80 4772.75 1668.25 5028.93 1634.45 1713.10 1696.25 5185.70 3moving total 5103.Table 5.53 1735.60 5207.85 3 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1738.90 4892.40 1665.

63 .93 1693.08 and fluctuates drastically at last it closes at 1699.CHART NO 5.82 1630.3 1735.10: Method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2012 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 1 1701.85. This shows a decreasing trend.75 1590.08 1728.871607.85 1634.6 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 3-D C olum n1 INFERENCE From the above table it’s referred that in three month moving average is starts at 1701.53 1699.08 1676.

91 1391.57 5285.82 -332.51 9755.AVG=(∑AVG/5)= 1057.AVG)*100 Seasonal deviation=(G.91 97.89 12340.93 76.72 -266.AVG Total 8743.99 1028. 64 .09 Seasonal indices 68.46 244.TABLE5.38 15886.48 CALCULAIONS G. At the last year of every month the market increases except September and December.63 812.AVG – AVG) INFERENCE: From the above table it is inferred that. first year of every month the market for gold begins low and fluctuates in next year also.37 1323.64 Seasonal deviations 328.47 1057.10 28.92 16698.12 Calculation of seasonal indices by moving average method Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ∑AVG G.24 131.81 AVG 728.09 Seasonal indices = (AVG/G.28 125.

47 4 1147.93 16 1239. 65 .52 -1625.13: Calculation of Seasonal indices by method of least square for Gold Mon th 2008 2009 2010 Price(Y) 728.25 1056.37 Deviations (X) -2 -1 0 1 2 Deviations* 2(X) -4 -2 0 2 4 XY -2914.91 2012 1391.84 INFERENCE: From the table it inferred that gold market shows on increasing trend in the consecutive year.99 1028.98 0 2647.TABLE5.41 964.82 5566.57 N=5 ∑Y=5280 .09 B=∑XY/∑X2 = 91.60 (X)2 16 4 0 Trend( Yc) 872.77 2 ∑(X )= 40 Trend (YC)=a+bx Calculations: A=∑Y/N = 1056.28 ∑XY=367 3.63 812.09 2011 1323. This shows that the market is healthy.

This shows that the market is unhealthy. The findings are here under. 66 .  Incase if the base year is taken from the previous year (moving trend) there is a high fluctuation in the market and also shown a stable. it is found that for gold market begins low in the first week of every month and fluctuates in next two weeks.  When seasonal indices is calculated by simple average method. but overall it shown positive sign.  According to moving average method. it is found that at the first week if every month the market starts low and increased in the second week of every month and there will be some variations in the third week but at the last week of every month the market stays stable. it shows more volatility in the market.V FINDINGS: This chapter gives detailed finding which are drawn from result analysis with the help of statistical tools that are used for the purpose of getting result. This occurs when the indices is calculated by link relative method.CHAPTER .  It is found that for gold market starts low in first of every month and increases highly in the second week.  When the base year is taken fixed for trend analysis.  According to least square table it inferred that gold market shows on decreasing trend in the consecutive year. but finally closed at high position in the last week of every month. but it fluctuates in the last two week of every month.

 The company (Tokyo Info Solutions) can analyze the market periodically and can provide tips for the investor. This might help them to acquire more investors. 67 .  It is better to invest in Gold as they have worldwide demand and the price increases every now and then in reality. This market always goes in an increasing trend despite of all the economic crises. except commodity market (Gold market).  Investors can buy Gold (commodities) during the first week of every month and can sell Gold at the last week of every month. I would like to give following recommendations.  It is always better to invest in Gold as they mostly show an increasing trend.  In today’s world’s economic condition all the stock markets are facing slowdown. This is subject to change according to the present world’s economic situation.  In the company website there is column called daily tips. but it is not updates regularly.SUGGESTION & RECOMMENDATION: After this study. which can help to the investors and the company in general. if the updates regularly it will be helpful for investors in taking investment decisions and also helps the organization to meet competition and investor expansion.

According to me the awareness towards Gold market is very less. there is a fluctuation in the market but it is not in huge way. On the other hand if there is any fluctuation in foreign market. In the end it always showed a positive sign. it has more effect on Indian stock market than that of domestic market. 68 . it will generate more revenue despite of all the risks involved in it. Finally I conclude that investing in Gold market with proper knowledge and analysis.CONCLUSION To conclude that. it will be attracting much more investors. As the Gold rates are fixed according to US dollar so the volatility of these prices will be more as and then according to exchange rate of our country towards US. But in country like India where there is a lot of demand for Gold market. The individual. if proper measures are taken to remove this hindrance. According the analysis done for past six months. People still considering that to invest in gold market is very risky. Moreover they consider that commodity market for speculation rather than business purpose. the company and the government can generate more revenue out of this. the investors can invest in this market as it mostly shows an increasing trend. Gold market have a crucial role to play in price risk management process.

30 917.9 0 772.2 0 913.40 975.5 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0 925.0 0 926.8 0 862.9 0 736.90 1032.00 972.2 0 681.9 0 857.4 0 893.3 0 952.70 914.9 0 973.10 935.6 0 726.4 0 844.4 0 High 936.5 0 876.40 830.7 0 741.60 743.7 0 818.8 0 699.50 879.4 0 884.3 0 904.70 924.00 926.2 0 871.2 0 915.20 Low 833.70 878.60 935.60 830.10 814.20 988.50 890.60 876.0 0 Close 926.ANNEXURE DATA 2008 Date Open 1 833.7 0 887.40 931.30 915.60 886.70 69 .2 0 833.

35 Low 801.85 1007.40 924.30 925.50 978.20 913.15 930.60 980.20 1005.75 954.70 880.90 1070.45 1044.85 1023.00 989.75 950.50 Close 926.90 1179.80 864.90 889.20 883.60 1041.80 1195.70 942.50 917.2009 Date 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Open 884.60 950.10 978.15 70 .80 959.15 1098.85 1179.90 926.05 971.70 967.00 886.00 932.30 946.35 986.10 918.60 939.20 High 929.85 953.05 905.50 1007.10 1043.15 1074.20 1226.70 886.

85 1249.90 1265.25 1315.25 Close 1078.85 1114.05 1180.00 1431.35 1181.80 1385.95 1111.25 1386.30 1116.00 1242.50 1305.2010 Date 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Open High Low 1073.45 1361.00 1243.75 1247.25 1215.65 1356.90 1044.15 1196.65 1325.75 1174.25 1113.10 1084.20 1096.90 1080.45 1157.30 1236.95 1249.00 71 .30 1156.80 1370.60 1177.15 1247.40 1130.05 1359.85 1161.95 1418.70 1387.20 1179.00 1242.00 1424.80 1181.60 1117.30 1144.45 1213.80 1306.

95 Low 1308.55 1613.10 1823.50 1762.60 1595.95 1380.30 1532.65 1666.45 1410.70 1332.30 1802.25 1576.2011 Date 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Open 1420.65 1412.40 1623.65 1478.10 1745.55 1538.80 1567.65 1714.30 1622.95 1432.95 1748.00 1609.10 1447.50 1462.00 1535.95 1824.70 1418.80 1624.60 1569.90 1562.05 1632.35 1490.60 High 1423.85 1920.80 1499.50 1430.45 1558.45 1911.10 1410.80 1752.05 1324.55 Close 1332.90 72 .20 1500.65 1522.50 1713.35 1564.

4 0 1725.7 5 1754.4 5 Close 1738.9 5 1719.8 5 1544.4 0 1790.2012 Date 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Open 1569.5 0 1723.5 5 1613.6 0 1669.0 5 1685.40 1720.10 1598.4 5 1635.9 0 1713.2 5 1671.75 1773.8 5 1664.0 0 1686.3 5 1795.9 5 1612.10 1560.2 0 Low 1567.4 5 1559.4 0 1695.10 1691.10 1696.4 5 1584.8 0 1629.6 0 1627.8 0 High 1747.7 5 1770.75 1668.70 73 .4 0 1698.45 1713.6 0 1683.40 1664.1 5 1640.0 5 1737.1 0 1692.60 1614.2 0 1526.6 5 1554.4 5 1672.7 0 1598.40 1665.6 0 1787.7 5 1690.

 Prasanna Chandra.  Trading Commodities and Financial Futures: A Step by Step guide to Mastering the Market.  The Complete booklet to investing rights in shares. New Delhi. 74 .articles.e.P.Gupta. unpublished materials .  Business Statistics.. Macmillan India ltd.P. New Delhi. Dr.. “Statistics for Business and Economics”.. published (or) unpublished consulted in the preparation of the report during the course of research books periodicals . Tata McGraw Hill. (Second) Research Methodologies. Pearson Education. records. Wiley Eastern Ltd. 3rd Edition by George Kleinman. Sharma.  Punithavathi pandian. 2 nd edition. films radio or television. Methods and techniques.K. vikas publisher..  Honda R.  C. list of written sources. government documents. Dr. Mumbai.Gupta. either. broadcasts. Educational Publisher New Delhi. lectures.SP.BIBLIOGRAPHY A bibliography mean’s booklists i. Kothari. 2001. (Second) Investment Analysis And Portfolio Management.pamphlets. 2nd and 4th edition 2005.Manmohan.K. J.  Dr. “Business Statistics & Operations Research”. National Stock Exchange Ltd. “Security analysis and portfolio management” 1st edition 2002.R. interviews etc.