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social sciences



Engineering Systems










Imagine the EXCITEMENT of working at the frontiers of MACROSCOPIC ENGINEERING the domain of larger and larger and more and more COMPLEX SYSTEMS for ENERGY, the ENVIRONMENT, communications, HEALTH CARE, MANUFACTURING , and LOGISTICS.



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Charles Vest, President, National Academy of Engineering

Engineering Systems Division 02 12 24 32 38

Challenges Research Education Global Reach ESD 2020



What MIT is good for: a dose of reality-based hope that we can help address in a real way the most serious of the worlds great challenges.
Susan Hockeld, President, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Highways, electrication, computers, ber optics, the Internet, and health technologies are listed by the National Academy of Engineering as among the greatest achievements of the 20th century. Engineering advances produce better medicines, provide heat and air conditioning, enhance food production, supply a bounty of affordable products on store shelves, and speed emergency communicationsimproving the lives of billions of people throughout the world.

These benets, however, were not delivered by the technological achievements alone, but rather by complex, intertwined engineering systemssystems that integrate technology, people, and services.
Many of the new challenges involving these big, messy systems stem from the interactions of people, organizations, and technologyleading to emergent properties over time. Strains of growth materialize at the nexus of changing social norms, shifting regulations, and new enterprise architectures. Breakdowns make the headlines, pointing to the enormity of the analytical, management, and design challenges: Blackouts Cause North America Chaos (BBC, 2003); As More Toys Are Recalled, Trail Ends in China (The New York Times, 2007); Nine Thought Dead as Minneapolis Bridge Collapses (MSNBC, 2007), Report Finds a Heavy Toll from Medication Errors (The New York Times, 2006). Tackling engineering systems challenges requires an engineering problem-solving mind-set, as well as new framing and modeling methodologieswhat we call engineering systems approaches. These approaches combine perspectives from engineering, management, and social sciences to explore the fundamental structures underlying engineering systems and to frame and model problems so that they can be rigorously addressed.

The simplicity of the single windmill in Zaragoza, Spain, belies the complexity of achieving energy securityone of the four problem domains addressed by ESD researchers. Image courtesy of Acciona

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MIT Engineering Systems Division


Vision, mission, values

ESD Vision
The fundamental principles and properties of engineering systemsthe complex socio-technical constructs that are the foundation of modern societyare well-understood, so that these systems can be modeled, designed, and managed effectively.

ESD Mission
To solve previously intractable engineering systems problems by integrating approaches based on engineering, management, and social sciences, using new framing and modeling methodologies. To facilitate the beneficial application of engineering systems principles and properties by expanding the set of problems addressed by engineers. To position our graduates as tomorrows system thinkers and leaders in tackling societys challenges.

ESD Values
We are committed to scholarship that addresses significant global problems by investigating the many ways in which engineering systems behave and interact with each other. We develop and evaluate system-level solutions that are sustainable in terms of social equity, economic development, and environmental impact. We value and accept intellectual risk. This means tackling issues that appear, at least in part, to be nonquantifiable or vague. We have deep respect for all the disciplines we bring together and build upon, including engineering, social sciences, and management.

The MIT Engineering Systems Division works with faculty across the Institutein engineering, management, and the social sciencesto collaborate on research that takes a holistic approach to tackling complex problems. Image courtesy of Alex Budnitz

What is engineering systems?


A class of systems



Engineering systems are characterized by a high degree of technical complexity, social intricacy, and elaborate processes, aimed at fullling important functions in society.

An emerging eld of research and education


Engineering systems is an emerging eld of scholarship that seeks solutions to important, multifaceted socio-technical problems.1 Applying approaches from engineering, the social sciences, and management, engineering systems scholarship explores multiple stakeholder perspectives. Engineering systems research develops and employs multiple methodologies, and balances quantitative and qualitative arguments while maintaining scientic rigor.

ESD focuses on the following domains:

Critical Infrastructuresincluding the electrical grid from power generation to distribution to consumers to pricing and regulation, as well as transportation, information, defense and communications systems, taking into account all stakeholders. Extended Enterprisesincluding the design, manufacture, and distribution of products and services; accounting for trade regulations, customs, and relationships among suppliers, manufacturers, retailers, and carriers; and managing the global ows of goods, information, money, and knowledge. Energy and Sustainabilityincluding issues of energy production, distribution, and consumption; material resource availability and reuse; the balance between the environment and economic development; as well as the related energy and environmental policies. Health Care Deliveryencompassing the delivery of vital services for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of diseases and maintaining quality of life for all segments of the population.

ESD approaches include:

The Interface of Humans and Technology examining the ways in which human attitudes and behaviors affect the successful use of technologies, as well as design methodologies that explicitly account for the human interface. Uncertainty and Dynamicsincluding modeling the sources of uncertainty and dynamics of complex systems as well as the effects of uncertainty in each of our domain areas. Design and Implementationapplying life-cycle concepts to capture the value and cost ows over time, as well as analyzing enterprise architectures and developing change management processes that are required for successful implementation. Networks and Flowsrepresenting, analyzing, and designing systems as interdependent multilayered networks with multiple types of ows. Policy and Standardstaking into account the role of government policy, industry standards, and other factors, which traditionally have been taken as external constraints, but instead are treated as design variables by ESD researchers.
Related to systems engineering, which is an important profession and practice, engineering systems is a eld of scholarship that includes systems engineering as well as a broader set of disciplines. Engineering systems has an added focus on social, environmental, technological, and political contexts.


domains [
Energy & Sustainability

Critical Infrastructures Health Care Delivery


Humans & Technology Uncertainty & Dynamics Design & Implementation Networks & Flows Policy & Standards

social sciences

approaches [

Extended Enterprises

To assist the reader in recognizing the various connections across ESD, this graphic key highlights the domains and approaches relevant to individual projects.

1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1956









More than 70,000 bridges in the US are rated as deficient one of them is the Longfellow Bridge leading from Boston to MIT. Red Line trains were slowed to 10 mph going over the bridge, trucks were banned, and traffic was restricted to a single lane after federal officials found inspections lacking. Image courtesy of Yossi Sheffi

But there is an even greater challenge. Over the next 50 years, a billion more people will be demanding modern services, mainly in the cities of the developing world. The environmental loads and resource depletion resulting from developing infrastructures to meet these demands, along the 20th century model, are unsustainable. ESD has made a commitment to advancing research in critical infrastructures precisely because these problems are both important and challenging. The facets that distinguish ESD research in critical infrastructures include: cross-domain views; comparative architecture and the factors affecting them; new models that include both the technical and social complexities; and new, large-scale simulation techniques which allow the combination of quantitative and qualitative data.


Source: Congressional Budget Office

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Critical Infrastructures
Improving the effectiveness of national infrastructures, such as those providing electric power, transport, and communications, is an important challenge. As the graph below demonstrates, US investment in infrastructure has not kept up with increasing needs. In 2005, the American Society of Civil Engineers estimated that the United States would need to spend $1.6 trillion over a five-year period to bring its existing infrastructure up to an acceptable level of service. Furthermore, infrastructure comprises not only physical objects such as roads and airports, but also the complex systems that provide for security, defense, health, energy, communications, and the functioning of markets. Herein lies an important research and education challengedeveloping models and understanding the behavior of this system of systems to better provide the infrastructures society relies on.
US Infrastructure Investment
Percentage of gross domestic product
esd authors critical infrastructures

MIT Engineering Systems Division

research DOMAINS

Much of the work in critical infrastructure involves better management of existing facilities. Drawing on systems and control theory, optimization and economics, Professor Hamsa Balakrishnans research focuses on the development of mechanisms to allocate airport and airspace resources. Her work accounts for multiple stakeholders (airlines, passengers, pilots, controllers, and neighboring communities) and multiple objectives (minimize delays and environmental impact, maximize safety and system-wide performance). Shown: Planes at JFK Airport. Most airport delays in the US originate in the congested airports of New York and New Jersey. Marchant

2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4


Extended Enterprises
Teams designing the new Boeing 787 Dreamliner span the globe, working around the clock and across multiple time zones. An Intel chip crosses the Pacific Ocean six times as it goes from raw material to becoming a Dell computer component. A T-shirt starts in an Egyptian cotton field, is manufactured in the Far East, shipped to Los Angeles for packaging, and is eventually sold at a Wal-Mart in Pittsburgh.
bringing the 787 together
fixed trailing edge nagoya, japan
US boeing spirit vought ge goodrich canada boeing messier-dowty australia boeing
Courtesy of The Boeing Company

engine nacelles chula vista, ca center fuselage Grottaglie, italy forward fuselage nagoya, japan forward fuselage wichita, kansas cargo/access doors sweden wing/body fairing landing gear doors winnipeg, canada

wing nagoya, japan wing tips korea movable trailing edge australia tail fin fredrickson, washington horizontal stabilizer foggia, italy

japan kawasaki mitsubishi fuji korea kal-asd

europe messier-dowty rolls-royce latecoere alenia saab

passenger entry doors france aft fuselage charleston, sc

main landing gear wheel well nagoya, japan center wing box nagoya, japan landing gear gloucester, uk

esd authors
engines GE evendale, ohio rolls-royce derby, uk fixed and movable leading edge tulsa, oklahoma

extended enterprises

Maritime container traffic in US ports grew by over 300% between 1990 and 2005. The global supply chains that keep food in supermarket aisles, medical supplies at hospitals, clothes on store shelves, and parts on hand for manufacturing, demand global coordination and controls of mind-boggling complexity. Most of the supply chain costs, however, are being baked in when product design and engineering decisions are made. These decisions imply manufacturing locations and therefore determine procurement and distribution strategies and operations. Building flexibility into the product architecture (through modularity and parts commonality) as well as into operational processes (through risk pooling and postponement), has become a crucial component of product design and engineering. Todays engineer needs to design products for the full life cycle, including manufacture, procurement, distribution, service, upgrade, and disposal.
The most important logistics innovation enabling international trade was the adoption of the standard container more than 50 years ago. Todays enterprises comprise networks of engineering, manufacturing, logistics, retail, and other services, spanning the globe and requiring sophisticated supply chain processes. Ports, cargo ships, shipping lanes, human operators, and information systems form the backbone of this critical global infrastructure. Image courtesy of Alan Deveau, Airscapes Photography

The complexities of global supply chains, the interaction of corporate objectives with trade policies, currency fluctuations, and distributed product and process design, present an intricate set of engineering challenges that are central to ESD. They involve the optimization of these global networks under demand and supply uncertainties throughout many regulatory regimes and cultures.


2.5k million metric tons


G. Matos and L. Wagner, Consumption of Materials in the US, Annual Review of Energy and the Environment (1998)



ESD is working in a number of areas to better frame the problem of sustainability, to identify existing approaches that can be used to address issues, and to expand the set of relevant analytical methods and tools. For example, ESD researchers are making lifecycle assessments of alternative materials and manufacturing processes, examining techniques and strategies to mitigate resource scarcity and increase the use of secondary materials, and analyzing the prospects for different energy sources over the next half-century. ESD researchers are also assessing alternative transportation technologies and modeling the energy and environmental characteristics of electricity generation and transmission under alternative policy designs, carbon mitigation strategies, and electrical network architectures.






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Energy and Sustainability

Per capita energy consumption in the developing world has more than doubled over the last 40 yearsand yet the developed world is still consuming energy five times faster than that. And the increased consumption is not limited to energy alone, as shown in the figure below. As the population and the desire for higher living standards grow worldwide, demand for energy and natural resources will outstrip conventional supplies. As a billion more people strive to improve their living standards, the challenge lies in doing so without further affecting the global climate and depleting scarce resources. Alternative fuels, advanced materials, and improved industrial processes are all heralded as possible solutions, but the sustainability of each choice encompasses more than technology. Engineers need to expand the scope of their design considerations to incorporate infrastructure requirements, environmental considerations, and societal impact.
overall us consumption of non-fuel material

MIT Engineering Systems Division

research DOMAINS



Acciona Energy, the worlds largest developer of wind parks, is collaborating with ESD researchers at the Zaragoza Logistics Center to use systems modeling and analysis to guide largescale energy infrastructure development in Spain. Image courtesy of Acciona
esd authors energy and sustainability







Health Care Delivery

According to the World Health Organization, 100 million people are impoverished every year by paying out of pocket for health care. In the United States, about 15 percent of the population is Health Benefits-Age Profile uninsured and tens of thousands of Americans die each year from medical errors, according to the US Institute of Medicine. Furthermore, age 80+ | 11.53 the aging population in much of the developed world is consuming an ever-increasing share of health care outlays (see chart). age 7579 | 8.52 While innovative local initiatives have been shown to lower the medical error rates and the incidence of staph infections at specific hospitals, there are large-scale systems issues involving medical training, government regulations, and insurance incentives that are beyond the scope of local control.
age 0014 | 0.88 age 1519 | 0.82 age 2049 | 0.77 age 7074 | 5.02 age 6569 | 5.01 age 5064 | 1.00 (reference group)

Index of relative health care expenditure by age. (The 5064 age group is the reference at 1.00.) Figure taken from Hagist, Christian and Laurence Kotlikoff. Whos Going Broke? Comparing Healthcare Costs in Ten OECD Countries.

ESD researchers take a systems view to make health care delivery more efficient by applying inventory theory and process improvement methods to the operations of hospitals and their supply chains. Much of the work involves the analysis of trade-offs between risks and benefits of patient treatments; between costs and level of service; and between individual rights and societys goals. Such work involves not only technology development and implementation but also a deep understanding of the organizational and ethical issues, as well as the human behaviors involvedfrom the supplier, provider, insurer, and patient perspective.

AgeLab has developed a robotic pill pet to assist in medication compliance. Image courtesy of AgeLab

Multi-level decomposition of the stakeholders in a health care system

Regulator Supplier Patient Provider Interest Groups
esd authors health care delivery

The Lean Advancement Initiatives health care research uses Straussian Grounded Theory for iterative data collection regarding the structure of the US health care system. The figure depicts the multiple stakeholders in all the systems echelons while the research is focused on understanding the various players incentives. Courtesy of the Lean Advancement Initiative headed by Professor Deborah Nightingale



Flu Clinic Home Care Hospital Nursing Home

Primary Care Specialist Care Ancillary Services

Labs Operating Rooms

Pharmacy Inpatient Units Radiology Primary Care

Emergency Department

Cleaning Nurse

Psychologist Physician Student Resident

Supply Technician

Admin Staff

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The response of engineers and program managers during the 16 days that Columbia was in orbit raises important issues for educating and utilizing engineers, as well as questions about their responsibility to treat system-level issues with the same disciplinary respect and expertise with which they treat components.
Sheila Widnall, Institute Professor, MIT and Member of the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation Board

Just as nanotechnology is deepening our understanding of the very small, engineering systems is expanding our understanding of the very large and complex systems that involve technology, people, and processes.
Macro-level research brings with it a new and exciting set of scholarly challenges, not the least of which is the impossibility of conducting experiments in tightly controlled environments. ESD therefore partners with industry and governments to address problems that are realistic and important, as well as to simulate new approaches and to test theories in real organizations. Macroscopic systems all exhibit technical, managerial, and social complexity. ESD draws upon faculty members from engineering, management, and the social sciences to integrate their methodologies and develop solutions in each of its four domains of concentration. More than 50 faculty members and researchers, most holding dual or joint appointments with other MIT units, are devoted to teaching and research in engineering systems.

The following cross-cutting approaches are some of the lenses which ESD researchers apply to multiple domains: The Interface of Humans and Technology Uncertainty and Dynamics Design and Implementation Networks and Flows Policy and Standards
Not all approaches t neatly into these categories, but in all cases, ESD researchers bring an engineering mind-set to problems that do not lend themselves to purely quantitative approaches or purely technical solutions. They seek out fundamental principles that can be used to understand, design, and implement engineering systems.


ESD PhD students Brandon Owens and Blandine Antoine discuss a system dynamics model of the possible causal loops that may have led to the Columbia accident. The model was originally developed by Nicolas Dulac (A&A PhD 07) in Professor Nancy Levesons research group. Image courtesy of Alex Budnitz

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The Interface of Humans and Technology

The explosion of automated technology and the emergence of complex technological systems have greatly increased the need to support human interaction with these systems. Human errors in aviation, for example, currently account for almost 80 percent of accidents. A significant contributor is human interaction with the technology: pilots are often confused by automated mode changes. Complex technologiesfrom the Internet to global positioning systemsare now integral to everyday life, affecting decisions across ESDs four domains. Yet evermore-automated devices distance people from physical control of the action, which can change behaviors and affect safety. Technology can also put new demands on organizations, creating a need for restructuring. Research in ESD focuses on illuminating the complex relationship between designers, users, and technology to facilitate the design improvements and effective operation of complex systems. Recognizing that human interaction with complex technology has both individual and group elements, ESD is developing methodologies and investigating key questions ranging from system design, to human-in-the-loop modeling, to process interventions, to organizational structures.

MIT Engineering Systems Division


Virtual reality displays attempt to close the distance between humans and technology. Still, little is known about the cascading effects of automation on overall system performance and safety. Image courtesy of NASA

esd authors the interface of humans and technology

Advances in medical technology from magnetic resonance imaging to laser surgeryhave improved health care for millions, but the integration of new technologies with existing processes poses a continuing challenge. Image courtesy of Intuitive Surgical, Inc.

Humans & technology

Uncertainty & Dynamics

Humans & technology

Uncertainty & Dynamics

Design & implementation

Networks & Flows Policy & Standards

Design & implementation

Networks & Flows Policy & Standards

Driving Innovation in Aging and Human Technology Interaction

Understanding how older people learn, interact, and adopt technology is critical to moving inventions into everyday use. The Engineering Systems Divisions AgeLabin collaboration with colleagues in Aeronautics and Astronautics, Brain and Cognitive Sciences, and the Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratoryis working to design a car that enables older people to drive safely longer. The labs cherry red VW Beetle fixed-base simulator, Miss Daisy, is designed to help researchers explore how in-vehicle warnings, navigation, and entertainment systemsas well as basic innovations in communications are learned, adopted, and affect driving performance across the human lifespan. Miss Daisys on-the-road mirror image, Miss Rosie, is equipped with sensors and video systems to understand how strength, flexibility, and disease affect drivingincluding such basic tasks as backing up and parking. Recently, the AgeLab developed the AwareCara black Volvo SUV that integrates more than $1 million of sensors, software, and data analysis systems to understand how visual attention, health, physiological change, cognitive workload, and in-vehicle technologies affect driving performance. The research vision is to realize a vehicle that integrates three critical subsystems of safe drivingthe driver, the vehicle, and road conditions. One of the most sophisticated experimental vehicles at any university, the AwareCar senses the drivers performance and adapts its own performance to both the drivers needs and road conditions to achieve optimal safety and comfort.
ESD researchers use the AgeLabs fixed-base simulator, Miss Daisy (above) to test the effects of technology on driving performance of the elderly. Image courtesy of AgeLab The AgeLabs AwareCar (right) adapts to both the drivers needs and road conditions using an array of sensors and computers. Image courtesy of AgeLab

Real-Time Predictive Human Supervisory Control Models of Team Collaboration

Complex systems are typically managed by difficult-to-supervise teams of human controllers. Feedback about interactions between team members, as well as with the system, may not be observable, and such critical collaboration factors as team knowledge and shared cognition are difficult to assess in real time.

NASAs control room of the The goal of this project is to build models of International Space Station team behaviors able not only to recognize the exemplifies how human beings are current state of a team supervising automation increasingly required to work with in real time, but also to predict future states multiple layers of technology. of this team. Specifically, the team models Image courtesy of NASA are based upon the observation of behavioral patterns at both the individual and collective levels. A main contribution of this project will be to determine the robustness of the prediction of future team behaviors based on observing social patterns of collaboration. This project is therefore at the intersection between artificial intelligence and social sciences. Given the prevalence of team interaction with many complex systems such as air traffic control, disaster first response, and military command and control, this research is relevant to numerous high-risk critical systems.

Coughlin, J. and J. Pope, A Consumer-Centered Approach to Intelligent Home Services to Support Health, Wellness & Aging-in-Place, IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology, 27(4), 4752, July/August 2008. Coughlin, J., Disruptive Demographics, Design and the Future of Everyday Environments, Design Management Review, 18(2), 5359, Spring 2007. Boussemart, Y., & M.L. Cummings, Behavioral Recognition and Prediction of an Operator Supervising Multiple Heterogeneous Unmanned Vehicles, Humans Operating Unmanned Systems `08, September 34, 2008, Brest, France.

Critical Infrastructures

Health Care Delivery

Critical Infrastructures

Energy & Sustainability

Energy & Sustainability

Health Care Delivery

Extended Enterprises

Extended Enterprises

Iranian Revolution Iran / Iraq War US Price Controls


world price average us $24.98

2006 $/barrel

Yom Kippur War oil embargo

Suez Crisis



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Gulf War

PDVSA Strike Iraq War Asian Growth Weaker Dollar

median us & world $19.04

US Price Controls


average world $27.00

OPEC 10% Quota Increase Asian Econ Crisis Series of OPEC Cuts 4.2 Million Barrels 9/11

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Uncertainty and Dynamics

Globalization has opened up a wealth of opportunities for businesses to diversify, expand, and invent new products and services. But globalization has also increased the exposure of companies to a wide world of uncertaintydesign teams are geographically dispersed, long supply chains are subject to volatility, multiple actors introduce diverse requirements and expectations, and regulations change over time and from place to place. In addition, the rate of technological innovation means that long-lived products have to be designed to accommodate unknown future technologies. ESD research zeroes in on fundamental principles that can be applied to multiple industries and business models. Research into uncertainty and dynamics attempts to answer questions such as: 1.  What are the key sources of uncertainty in each particular engineering systems context? How can these uncertainties be modeled and 2.  quantified so that they can be taken into account during design, implementation, and management of the systems? 3.  How can both robust and flexible strategies be used to design systems in order to both mitigate downside risks and take advantage of upside opportunities? 4.  How can properties such as safety and resilience be maintained as systems change over time? The basic approaches to tackling uncertainty include building in robustness and flexibility. Improving planning for uncertaintyto minimize risk and maximize opportunitiesholds promise for all four of ESDs key research domains.

MIT Engineering Systems Division


Crude oil prices

us 1st purchase price (wellhead)

ESD risk management research looks both at catastrophic events, such as Hurricane Katrina (top), and uncertain fluctuations, such as those demonstrated by the price of oil shown in the chart above. Katrina image courtesy of US Coast Guard; chart adapted from WTRG Economics

esd authors uncertainty and dynamics

Critical Infrastructures

Energy & sustainability

Health Care Delivery

Humans & Technology

Humans & Technology

Uncertainty & dynamics Design & implementation

Networks & Flows

Uncertainty & dynamics

Design & Implementation Networks & Flows

Policy & standards

Policy & standards

New Approaches to Accident Modeling and System Safety

Current analytic risk approaches are based largely on the assumption that accidents and serious losses arise from a linear chain of directly related system component failures, human errors, or energy-related events. These traditional causality models do not adequately account for multiple indirect, non-linear, and feedback relationships among events. They also do not explain accidents that do not involve component failures but which instead are caused by dysfunctional component interactions. Each component functions individually within a standard or acceptable performance range or in the context of an appropriate objective, and yet together the component interactions lead to a loss. ESD researchers are developing new, powerful accident causality models and risk management techniques that can handle the complexity of todays technical and social systems. Using systems and control theory as the mathematical foundations and a causality model (called STAMP) that expands traditional models, the researchers are constructing computational models of the static (structural) and dynamic aspects of complex, socio-technical systems to provide information about potential risks. This new approach to risk analysis and management has been successfully demonstrated on technical systems such as building safety into the design of new NASA spacecraft and assessing the potential for an inadvertent launch in the new US missile defense system. At the social system level, it is being applied to such diverse applications as health care, space shuttle operations, pharmaceuticals, food safety, and corporate fraud. It is potentially applicable to any safety-critical, socio-technical infrastructure.

Uncertainty in Impacts of Global Climate Change

One of the most significant environmental challenges of the 21st century will be how to address the threat of global climate change. Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from human activities will require the development of new technologies and energy sources, at potentially high cost. This effort is complicated by the wide range of uncertainty in future climate projections.


(20902100) (20102000)


CCSP 750 STABILIZATION ccsp 550 stabilization


NO POLICY CCSP: Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1a




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Unless Congress Relaxes Hiring Constraints
Limits on Hiring





Transfers from Shuttle

37.5 75 112.5 150 0

A primary focus of the climate Probability distributions of temperature change over the 21st century under no climate policy, change research at MIT is to stabilization of CO2 at 750ppm, and stabilization characterize the uncertainty in at 550ppm. The probability of exceeding 4C future climate impacts. Using MITs warming under these policies are 80%, 60%, and Integrated Global System Model, 5%, respectively. From M. Webster, C. Forest, H. ESD researchers have performed Jacoby, S. Paltsev, R. Prinn, J. Reilly, M. Sarofim, a rigorous assessment of the most A. Schlosser, A. Sokolov, P. Stone. Long-term critical uncertain assumptions greenhouse gas stabilization and the risks of dangerous impacts. Working Paper, 2008. in the model. Using data where available and techniques to elicit expert judgment, the researchers have constructed probability density functions for the uncertain model parameters, and have used Monte Carlo simulation techniques for uncertainty propagation. Probability distributions of critical model outcomes, such as the future surface temperature of the earth, can then be compared between different greenhouse gas concentration stabilization paths. The results of this work provide information on how the risks of extreme climate impacts are reduced by limited greenhouse gas emissions. These probabilistic results are used by numerous government agencies, including the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Energy, and the Congressional Budget Office, as well as parties to international climate negotiations, to understand the level of mitigation effort needed to achieve climate objectives with a given level of confidence.

time (months)

Effects of hiring constraints on safety of NASA systems are one of the many social and political factors considered in the new framework for systems safety for NASAs Space Exploration Mission Directorate. National Academies of Science and Engineering (2006), Issues Affecting the Future of the US Space Science and Engineering Workforce: Interim Report, The National Academies Press, Washington, DC

Webster, M.D., C. Forest, J. Reilly, M. Babiker, D. Kicklighter, M. Mayer, R. Prinn, M. Sarofim, A. Sokolov, P. Stone, and C. Wang, Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change and Policy Response, Climatic Change, 61(3), 295320, 2003. Congressional Budget Office (2005), Uncertainty in Analyzing Climate Change: Policy Implications, January 2005.

Leveson, N., A New Accident Model for Engineering Safer Systems, Safety Science, 42(4), April 2004.

Critical Infrastructures

Energy & Sustainability

Health Care Delivery

Extended Enterprises

Extended Enterprises

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Adaptive OFAT is used by Cobasys engineers to improve the performance, reliability, robustness, and cost effectiveness of their energy storage systems. Image courtesy of Cobasys

Design and Implementation

Large engineering systems, such as those supporting communications, transportation, and electricity generation and distribution, account for much of the worlds economy. Considering that each one had to be designed for performance, economy, exibility, and resource sustainability, one could argue that system design is the single most important activity dening modern civilization.



Run a resolution III design on noise factors Change one factor b b a b c a c c Again, run a resolution III on noise factors. If there is an improvement, retain the change. Repeat the process. If the response gets worse, go back to the previous state. Stop after changing every control factor once.


System design is a complex and diverse activity involving coordination of many professionals and corporate functions, including research and development, engineering, nance, manufacturing, marketing, and distribution and logistics. Design research in engineering systems explicitly takes into account within the design these functional needs as well as the need to plan for future uncertainties. A holistic design further incorporates implementation and enterprise adoption challenges, without which designs are just a theoretical exercise. ESD researchers work to improve the various processes associated with design and implementation, including requirements development, product architecture and design, program and project management, and new reliability/robustness/testing methods. ESD researchers also explore the process of implementing various designs and the change management process itself, as part of a series of projects dealing with the challenges of enterprise architecture.


b a c

Before ESD Associate Professor Daniel Frey began his research, the one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) method of testing designs was considered decient. For example, N. Logothetis and Henry P. Wynn, authors of Quality Through Design (Oxford University Press, 1995), proclaimed the nal demise of the simple one-factor-ata-time method. But Frey was able to denitively prove the utility of the method. As Karl T. Ulrich and Steven D. Eppinger later remarked in Product Design and Development (McGraw Hill, 2007), an adaptive one-factor-at-a-time approach has been shown to yield better performance optimization.





Energy & Sustainability

Health Care Delivery

Extended Enterprises

Humans & Technology

Humans & Technology


Networks & Flows Policy & Standards


Networks & Flows Policy & Standards

Real Options in System Design

Although designers often promote the idea of exibility, explicit consideration of exibility in system design represents a considerable departure from current engineering practice. The rationale for exibility in design is that, due to uncertainty, there is value in having the right, but not the obligation, in other words, an option, to react to future developments. This research focuses on the development of valuable exibility in designs. Conceptually and professionally, this work lies midway between standard engineering (which does not consider design exibility in any detail) and nancial real options analysis (which does not look at design). ESDs research team has developed a screening model approach to the core problem of identifying the system elements that should be exible in order to increase value. Screening models are mid-delity models that run much faster than standard detailed design models. They can be used to examine the performance of many designs across great ranges of scenarios, thus pinpointing system architectures that are the most attractive prospects for detailed design. Proper inclusion of exibility in system design can increase the expected value of projects by over 25%. ESD researchers work closely with industries ranging from aerospace and satellite communications, to automotive and energy, to health care, construction, and real estate to identify opportunities for exible designs.

Strategic Materials Decisions: Systems Insights to Improve Recyclability

The average per-capita consumption of materials in the United States exceeds a staggering 50 kg each day. While the average consumption of the rest of the world lags signicantly behind that of the United States, it is growing at twice the rate. As in other areas, the challenge is to accommodate this growth while preserving resource sustainability. Materials choices affect every aspect of the life cycle of every product, from materials production to manufacture to use, end-of-life, and materials recovery. The environmental effects of these choices are not only the energy consumption and emissions from product manufacture, but also the environmental consequences of the uses to which these products are put. Product and materials recycling can limit the environmental impacts of manufacturing processes, but its implementation has been largely opportunistic, rather than grounded in an appreciation of the interactions among materials science, production technology, materials markets, and product life cycles. Using simulation and stochastic optimization methods, ESD researchers have developed recycling strategies that include redesign of materials, products, recycler processes, recovery infrastructure, and policy. This work has shown that reframing production analyses around these broader interactions yields tools that can identify undervalued raw materials, rene batch-mixing decisions, characterize recycling-friendly alloy design, and guide strategic alloy choices. Additionally, the team discovered that probability-based models can identify operational improvements across many forms of production.

Deterministic inputs: 50% OOIP Bespoke facilities design Fixed oil/gas market price Baseline NPV TRADITIONAL PRACTICE Single number for NPV as a decision making criterion



Reservoir: STOOIP

Bespoke Design

Oil/gas price


NPV distribution RU + MU NEW PARADIGM Value-at-Riskand-Gain Curve (VARG) Expected NPV Maximal Gain Maximal Loss Initial CAPEX Value of Flexibility



Reservoir: STOOIP

+ Flexible staged Oil/gas price facilities + intelligent decision rules


u fa c t u r i n g S

NPV distribution + RU + MU + flexibility staged facility





Evaluation of the value of exibility in the design of upstream oil and gas exploration facilities begins with establishing a deterministic baseline design (1), followed by evaluation of the design under uncertainty (2), response under uncertainty with facility-level exibility (3) and response with increasingly sophisticated exibility strategies such as the tie-in of new elds over time (4). Courtesy of Professor Richard de Neufville

This work is currently extended to model how recycling system policy and architecture inuence recovery economics and effectiveness; the potential for technological solutions to mitigate the deterioration of secondary resources; and the role of recycling to manage volatility and scarcity in the larger materials system.

Wang, T. and R. de Neufville, Identication of Real Options in Projects, 16th Annual INCOSE International Symposium, Orlando, July 2006 (Prize for Best Paper at INCOSE International Symposium).

Gaustad, G., P. Li, and R. Kirchain, Modeling Methods for Managing Raw Material Compositional Uncertainty in Alloy Production, Resources, Conservation, and Recycling, 52(2), 180207, 2007.


Reclamation Losses

t L o ss e

Reservoir: STOOIP

+ Flexible facilities + intelligent decision rules + tie-back flexibility

Oil/gas price


NPV distribution + RU + MU + flexibility staged facility + tie-back options


The complete set of strategies to improve material recovery only emerge when considering the system as a whole. Figure courtesy of Professor Randolph Kirchain

Critical Infrastructures

Health Care Delivery

> > >

20 :: 21

Networks and Flows

The intermodal station in the vast logistics park in Zaragoza, Spain, is shown under construction in 2007. The rail, air, and road network in the park underlie the complex network of companies, processes, and flows serving as a hub for southwestern Europe. Image courtesy of the MIT-Zaragoza Program

MIT Engineering Systems Division

Networks and flows characterize all engineering systems:  Technicallyas power generation plants link to transformers, transmission lines, and consumers  Sociallyas contractual relationships, government policies, and cultural needs affect the flow of people, goods, and information  Manageriallyas links connect designers, suppliers, manufacturing plants, warehouses, distribution centers, and retail shops Network modeling has been used both for systems that resemble physical networks and as a powerful modeling tool to represent many other systems involving relationships between entities. For example, decisions over time and space can be represented by a graph structure, as can schedules and assignments. ESD research into networks and flows applies modern graph and network theory to complex systems, but does so in a way that allows a representation of the dynamics and uncertainties that are most relevant to engineering systems.


esd authors networks and flows

22 :: 23

Policy and Standards

Many modern engineering challenges require solving problems subject to political, legal, and regulatory constraints. The increased reliance of modern societies on engineering systems requires ESD researchers to consider many such constraints to be design variables. Rather than treating regulations and policies as given, ESD researchers investigate how they can be changed as part of the design process. Understanding the policysetting process is thus critical to translating insights gained from modeling and analysis into comprehensive solutionsones that include policy making, engage diverse constituencies, and incorporate implementation. For example, while the original development of the Internet standards was perceived as a technical problem, todays challenges involve industrial economics of the telecommunications industry, intellectual property law, privacy, and security. Technical standards and protocols are fundamental determinants of the scope of the technical systems, economic markets, and policy domains that are objects of study in ESD. Interoperability standards and protocols allow components of a system to work together, and standardized measures of performance allow for outsourcing of fabrication and assembly of the components of complex systems. ESD researchers are studying various policy-setting mechanisms and are involved in setting policy within their research areas. For example, the Program on Emerging Technologies explores how protocols and standard-setting can inuence both the technical and industrial trajectories of emerging technologies. The Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research integrates climate science with economic modeling to assess the effectiveness of ESD AUTHORS policy instruments needed in the face POLICY AND of greenhouse gas emissions. And the STANDARDS Materials Systems Laboratory seeks to couple product design and manufacturing choices with environmental and economic consequences to guide materials and process research toward more sustainable product development.


Many ESD students, mostly in the Technology and Policy Program, have interned at federal and state government agencies. Spears

The standardized bar code speeds transactions and simplies inventory tracking.

Health Care delivery

Energy & sustainability

Energy & Sustainability

Critical Infrastructures

Humans & technology Uncertainty & dynamics

Design & Implementation Networks & Flows

Extended Enterprises

Humans & Technology

Uncertainty & dynamics

Design & Implementation Networks & Flows

Policy & standards

Policy & standards

Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions for Flu Preparedness and Response

SARS and avian flu have raised awareness of the risk of pandemic flu, and billions of dollars are now being devoted to influenza research. However, little attention has focused on simple behavioral changes that can reduce the incidence of infection. This research merges probabilistic model building with social science and management principles, to show that simple, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) could significantly reduce the death toll of an epidemic. To depict the social contact behavior of a heterogeneous population susceptible to infection, the researchers developed a non-homogeneous probabilistic mixing model. They partitioned the population into subgroups, based on frequency of contacts and infection propensities, and then developed a difference equation model to depict the evolution of disease. This model showed that early exponential growth of the disease among those with frequent human contact may not be indicative of the general populations susceptibility, and social distancing may be effective in combating flu. Under reasonable assumptions, the model predicts that early and intense use of NPIs can reduceby as much as 20 to 40 percentflu infection and death rates. This research led to a two-day workshop on pandemic flu for representatives from 12 states, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the US Department of Homeland Security, and others. In recognition of this work, Professor Richard C. Larson has been invited to become a member of the Board on Health Sciences Policy of the Institute of Medicine of the National Academies.

CO2 Geological Storage Options

A multi-disciplinary team with expertise in systems analysis, economics, sequestration, law, and political science looked at the challenge of regulating carbon dioxide and storage. The research combined legal analysis of potential tort liability from seismicity that might be induced by carbon injection into geological formations and from contractual liability from carbon dioxide leakage from structures, with a technical review and assessment of sequestration options. The technical analysis concentrated on the storage of CO2 in deep saline formations and oil and gas fields, which are considered to be the most likely near-term geological storage options. Deep saline formations and oil and gas fields are believed to offer the largest capacity for geological storage and in many cases are in close proximity to large sources of CO2. The legal analysis of liability relied on conventional legal research methods to identify relevant statutes and cases and assess their implications for contractual and tort liability. The work was presented to staff members of the US Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources who were writing legislation to regulate sequestration risks. The team was also commissioned to write a briefing paper on liability issues for the International Risk Governance Council.

CO2 storage Liability proposal

Overview of geological storage options 1 Depleted oil and gas reservoirs 2 Use of CO2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery 3 Deep saline formations (a) offshore (b) onshore 4 Use of CO2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery
3b 3a 2


10,000 8,000 new infecteds 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

High activity middle activity low activity total activity

Sea level


Produced oil or gas Injected co2 stored co2


Infection spread within a community that reacts to previous days news only by proportionally scaling back the average number of contacts for all its members. Courtesy of Professor Richard Larson

The most promising CO2 storage options are in deep saline formations and oil and gas fields. The research combined technical storage systems analysis with market considerations, tort and contractual liability issues, and regulatory systems analysis. figure from: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage, Summary for Policy Makers and Technical Summary, IPCC, (2005)

Larson, R.C., Simple Models of Influenza Progression Within a Heterogeneous Population, Operations Research, 55(3), 399412, MayJune 2007. Nigmatulina, K.R. and R.C. Larson, Living with Influenza: Impacts of Government Imposed and Voluntarily Selected Interventions, to appear in European Journal of Operational Research, 2008. de Figueiredo, M., H. Herzog, P. Joskow, K. Oye, and D. Reiner, Regulating Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage: Legal, Regulatory and Organizational Issues, International Risk Governance Council, January 2007.

Critical Infrastructures

Health Care Delivery

Extended Enterprises

24 :: 25 MIT Engineering Systems Division


ESDs educational programs are the embodiment of MITs mens et manus philosophy, academically rigorous but also well-grounded in practice through ESDs unique set of partnerships with industry and government.
Steven R. Lerman, Provost and Executive Vice President for Academic Affairs, George Washington University; Former Dean for Graduate Education, MIT

ESD offers a doctoral degree and five1 masters programs. All programs share a common, holistic approach to engineering systems. ESD prepares engineers to lead in the real world, where clean answers are anomalies and challenging technical problems rarely have purely technical solutions.
For that reason, the division is strongly tied to organizations in industry and government. The vast majority of ESD students in the masters programs work on real problems in industry, while the thesis research of the PhD students typically involves methodological developments. All ESD programs focus on leadership, preparing students to be agents of change in academia, industry, and government. The PhD program is focused on academic and research leadership, while the masters programs are focused on industry and government leadership. What distinguishes each of the masters programs is its focus within the life cyclewhether students deal primarily with design, manufacture, operations, or policy issuesalthough in all cases  these boundaries are porous. All ESD students are expected to attain deep competencies outside their areas of concentration, and in particular are expected  to maintain and deepen their technical excellence. ESD by the numbers (2008) 441 graduate students 51 faculty members 117 ESD courses plus 8 under development

Program length (months)

Selectivity (%)1
363 29 565 23 26

Date Founded



1975 1988 1996 1998 2002

100 95 150 36 60

24+ 24 1324 9 3678

Image courtesy of Alex Budnitz

Ratio of students accepted to applied Ratio of matriculated students to accepted 3 Excluding internal dual degree applicants 4 SDM selectivity and yield percentages exclude certificate program students 5 Pre-selection made by partner companies prior to application


In addition to the four masters programs shown in the table, ESD offers a masters program for students who wish to pursue an independent advanced degree in engineering systems. The ESD SM is also an option for the engineering degree awarded to graduates of the Leaders for Global Operations Program.

Yield (%)2
80 82 90 78 74

Students enrolled


26 :: 27

ESD PhD Program

ESDs doctoral students are on the leading edge of the evolution of engineering systems approacheswellgrounded engineers committed to thinking imaginatively about ways to broaden engineerings scope to solve complex problems. ESD is dedicated to providing the tools they need to lead the wayin academia and in industry. Doctoral students in ESD face an ambitious undertaking. They must acquire a broad view of fundamental engineering systems thinking and deep knowledge of one or more domains of interest. In addition, they are required to develop thorough competence in certain established methodologies (such as operations research, economics, management concepts and methods, and social science methods). And, of course, each students dissertation is expected to make a seminal scholarly contribution to the field of engineering systems. This means uncovering principles and articulating the properties underlying such systems, thereby adding to the developing knowledge of engineering systems approaches.
phd student placement (20042008)

MIT Engineering Systems Division

Doctoral degree and projects
Clockwise from the top: ESD PhD 06 Konstantinos Kalligeros; ESD PhD 06 Ralph Hall and Prof. Joe Sussman; Prof. Annalisa Weigel and ESD PhD 06 Heidi Davidz

other 13%

industry 34%

government (inc. military) 17%


MITs engineering systems PhD is the program of choice in our field. An average of 15 candidates a year are enrolled in the program, which takes about five years to complete. Peers include Carnegie Mellon University (Engineering and Public Policy Department), Delft University of Technology (Technology, Policy, and Management Faculty), and Stanford University (Management, Science, and Engineering Department).

Humans & Technology Uncertainty & Dynamics Design & Implementation

Humans & Technology

Uncertainty & dynamics Design & implementation

Networks & Flows Policy & Standards

Networks & flows Policy & standards

Design for Location: Offshore Manufacturing and Technology Competitiveness

Prof. Fuchss research combines qualitative field research with engineering-based decision tools to provide insight into the global drivers of technological change. At MIT, she studied the impact of manufacturing location on technology development incentives and thereby the technology trajectory of firms. She looked at two cases of emerging technologies: advanced composites in automobiles and integrated components in optoelectronics. In both cases, her results show that when US firms shift production from the United States to such countries as China, the most advanced technologies developed in the United States no longer pay. Production characteristics are different abroad, and earlier technologies can be more cost-effective in countries like China. Among other issues, this leaves the most advanced technologies abandoned, and, at least in the case of the optoelectronics industry, creates a barrier to returning production to the United States.

Technology Infusion Analysis Under Uncertainty

Most new technologies only deliver value once they are infused into a parent system. While the literature on innovation is abundant, no rigorous methodologies have been available to evaluate the risks and opportunities of new technologies within a wider competitive and regulatory context. Dr. Smaling developed a technology infusion assessment methodology to quantify the potential performance benefits of new technologies using multi-objective Pareto analysis. The costs of infusing new technologies are determined by calculating the architectural invasiveness of each technology concept relative to a baseline Rudy Smaling, PhD 2005 system. The degree of invasiveness of different Chief Engineer, Hybrid system architectures is related to the amount Systems Architecture, of design change required to accommodate the Eaton Corporation new technology. This can be quantified with a component-based change Design Structure Matrix, DSM. Risks and opportunities are measured by weighing the future benefits and costs of a new technology against uncertain exogenous variables and scenarios such as gains that may be made by competing technologies and potential future regulatory actions. The technology infusion methodology was demonstrated for a hydrogen-enhanced combustion engine, where the effects of integrating a plasma fuel reformer into a vehicle were quantified in terms of fuel economy, NOx emissions, and vehicle add-on costs.

Erica Fuchs, PhD 2006 Assistant Professor, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University

With her research group at Carnegie Mellon, Prof. Fuchs continues to study technology and global competitiveness, including (1) the role of the US government in seeding and encouraging new technology trajectories, (2) the consequences of offshore outsourcing for knowledge flows and production-floor learning within firms, and (3) the resiliency of the US innovation ecosystem to external shocks, including a critical set of firms moving manufacturing offshore.

US Optoelectronic Device Manufacturing Capability

$1,200 unit production cost ($/eml) $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 0
Monolithic Base Case

relationship between technology development, technology infusion, and the societal impact of technology
Technology Development (Component Level) air, fuel Technology Infusion (System Level) DSM model H2 CO1 N2 Capital Investment (NRE) Economy Environment Regulations Competition uncertainty Vehicle add-on cost ($) uncertainty Vehicle Fleet

base case yield*

Discrete Device Base Case

discrete device base case monolithic base case

*yield refers to cummulative yeild of laser

3.9% 2.3%

Plasma Fuel Reformer energy

Technology Societal Impact (Super-system level)


3% 2%
Monolithic Yield Discrete Device Yield

Technology Infusion (Subsystem Level) CAD Model Engine Integration uncertainty Test Vehicle

4.5% 3% 10 20 30 40 50

annual production volume (000s)

Improved Emissions and Fuel Economy

US integrated device manufacturing yield has to be 40% higher in order to compensate for the cost advantage of manufacturing discrete devices in East Asia.

Fuchs, E., E. Bruce, R., Ram, and R. Kirchain, Process-Based Cost Modeling of Photonics Manufacture: The Cost-Competitiveness of Monolithic Integration of a 1550nm DFB Laser and an Electro-Absorptive Modulator on an InP Platform, Journal of Lightwave Technology, 24(8), 31753186, 2006. Fuchs, E., F. Field, R. Roth, and R. Kirchain, Strategic Materials Selection in the Automotive Body: Economic Opportunities for Polymer Composite Design, Composite Science and Technology, 68(9), 19892002, 2008.

The methodology for carrying out technology infusion analysis was subsequently adopted and refined at Xerox Corporation to assess new technologies for digital printing systems. This work received the Best Paper in Systems Engineering Award 2007 from the International Council on Systems Engineering.

Smaling, R. and O. de Weck, Assessing Risks and Opportunities of Technology Infusion in System Design, Systems Engineering, 10(1), 125, 2007 (Award for Best Paper in Systems Engineering from INCOSE).

Critical Infrastructures

Extended enterprises

Critical Infrastructures

Energy & Sustainability

Energy & Sustainability

Health Care Delivery

Health Care Delivery

Extended Enterprises

28 :: 29

Technology and Policy Program

The Technology and Policy Program (TPP) strives to develop leaders who can create, refine, and implement responsible policies that are informed not only by an understanding of technology and its instruments, but also by the broad social contexts that both shape and are shaped by technology. TPP seeks to equip students to be effective leaders in both the public and the private sectors. Students pursue a two-year course of study that includes classes in law, public policy, economics, and introductory policymaking and leadership. They also conduct funded research projects across all five of MITs schools. Roughly one-half of TPP students get hands-on policy experience through the TPP Summer Internship Program, which helps to place students in policy-making positions in governments, industry, and nongovernmental organizations.

MIT Engineering Systems Division

Recent thesis research:

For his thesis, Driving Segments Analysis for Energy and Environmental Impacts of Worsening Traffic, TPP 07 Wen Feng used sensitivity analysis to investigate the effects of altering vehicle choice, fuel consumption, and emissions. In his thesis, Introducing the Concept of Sustainable Transportation to the US DOT through the Reauthorization of TEA-21, TPP 03 Ralph Hall demonstrated the institutional complexity hindering the achievement of sustainable transportation in the United States.

masters programs

What TPP did was open my eyes to how you could engage problems in a socially relevant way, while backing up your approach with the rigor of analytical thinking.
Bryan Moser, SM TPP 89 CEO, Global Project Design The TPP thesis is a major research work. Students are expected to place a problem within its technical and social context, synthesize the technical and policy questions that arise from the problem, frame these questions for assessment and evaluation, conduct the analysis needed to gain insight into these key questions, and provide leadership on what can and ought to be done. TPPs almost 1,000 alumni include university professors, deans and chancellors, CEOs, CFOs, CTOs, officials with government ministries, agencies and NGOsand five Rhodes Scholars.
Bostons Central Artery/ Tunnel project (left) involved significant technological feats, complex project management, and significant political and policy considerations. Many TPP students have worked on urban transportation planning projects, emphasizing both the technology and the policy aspects. Over the years, Technology and Policy Program students have held internships in federal and state government, private industry, consulting firms, and numerous international organizations.

System Design and Management Program

The System Design and Management (SDM) Program offers a masters degree jointly awarded by the MIT School of Engineering and the MIT Sloan School of Management. Built on a foundation of core courses in system architecture, systems engineering, and system and project management, SDM focuses on improving the design of products and systems from both a technical and management perspective. Students learn to respond to user needs, allocate functionality, decompose systems, and define interfaces. They also learn to manage tasks to ensure the best use of resources, both human and financial, and to meet cost, performance, and schedule targets.
A system dynamics diagram of the rework cycle in a typical complex project Figure courtesy of Senior Lecturer James Lyneis

Recent thesis research:

SDM 06 Sorin Gramas thesis work, A Survey of Thin-Film Solar Photovoltaic Industry & Technologies, helped his team win honors in the 2007 MIT 100K entrepreneurial competition with a solar-powered microgenerating system assembled from common automotive parts. SDM 06 student Luis Maseda developed a model to help hospital administrators frame investment decisions for his thesis, Real Options Analysis of Flexibility in a Hospital Emergency Department Expansion Project, a Systems Approach.

Experience Dilution

Too Big to Manage


congestion & communication difficulties fatigue


workforce overtime

effort applied

Work More

Add People


rework generation

Haste Makes Waste
Work done

work intensity

progress original work to do

Work Faster or Slack Off

rework to do rework discovery

Undiscovered work

effort needed

time remaining known work remaining deadline

I work in an industry that is grappling daily with larger and more complex problems. The ability to step back and consider the big picture and all of the different interactionswith knowledge of both the technical and managerial concernsis priceless.
SDM students participate in a design challenge competition. Team members work together to creatively tackle a technical problem within a short time span. Image courtesy of Alex Budnitz

Sorin Grama, SDM 06, and a group of MIT students and local volunteers in front of a solar thermal system in Lesotho, Africa. The prototype system was built in 2007 as part of a World Bank-sponsored initiative.

Monica L. Giffin, SDM 06 Radar Systems Engineer, Raytheon

30 :: 31

Leaders for Global Operations Program

Leaders for Global Operations (LGO) students get two degrees: an MBA from the MIT Sloan School of Management and an SM from ESD or one of the other MIT engineering departments. LGO focuses on the broader definition of manufacturing, encompassing delivery and service. The program is founded upon the belief that manufacturing and operations excellence is the basis for the economic and social well-being of individuals and companies operating in global markets, and consequently for society as a whole.
Andrea Joness internship at Honeywell Aerospace in Phoenix, Arizona, is an example of the breadth of an LGO internship project. Jones, LGO 06, recognized that through enterprise-level optimization of supply chain, assembly, and test practices, Honeywell could improve its on-time delivery of quality engines to customers. She conducted a Lean Enterprise Self Assessment Tool (LESAT) survey to highlight opportunities to propel Honeywell to a culture of high performance.

MIT Engineering Systems Division

LGO students gain a solid background in engineering, operations management, information technology, teamwork, change management, and systems thinking. A defining feature of the program is its internship. LGO students spend 6.5 months on an internship at a partner company and use the experience as the basis for their LGO theses.

Recent thesis research:

LGO 07 Ken Merriam spent six months interning with the online retail giant Amazon for his thesis, Reducing Total Fulfillment Costs at Amazon E.U. through Network Design Optimization. His work enabled the company to minimize its U.K. transportation costs and provided the basis for optimizing the assignment of orders and inventory to multiple warehouses. While interning at Novartis, LGO 07 John Heiney utilized a series of deterministic and stochastic models to predict the impact of multiple operational changes on cost and cycle time in earlystage drug testing. His thesis, Optimization of Preclinical Profiling Operations in Drug Discovery, helped the company reduce materials spending by $500,000 per year, increase capacity, reduce cycle time, and improve customer value.

education masters programs

The tailored LGO leadership curriculum provided me with the foundation to bring to Boeing practical solutions to complex, real-world problems. LGOs advanced education has proven, over time, to be robust and enduring. I continue to leverage what I learned in my work today.
Patrick Shanahan, LGO 91   eneral Manager of The Boeing Companys G 787 Dreamliner project

A team of first-year students in ESDs Leaders for Global Operations Program plans its product development strategies during a simulation as part of its Lean Product Development Workshop. The workshop takes place during the programs first summer.

Supply Chain Management Program

The business of logisticsdesigning and coordinating the flow of products, information, money, and ideas through the supply chainis an enormous industry. The US logistics bill is now more than $1 trilliona bigger share of the GDP than that of Social Security, health care, or defense. The Supply Chain Management (SCM) Program was created to produce a new generation of supply chain management professionals able to revolutionize this massive industry. The program focuses on using engineering principles to solve global supply chain challenges, providing students with proficiency in problem-solving approaches, information technology systems, and change management leadership. Graduates of the SCM Program earn a Master of Engineering in Logistics (MLOG) degree.

Recent thesis research:

SCM 07 Joshua Merrill created a cross-enterprise network planning model capturing the risk involved in uncertainty in both supply and demand for his thesis, Risk in Premium Fruit and Vegetable Supply Chains. SCM 08 Allison Bennett and Yi Zhuan Chins thesis, 100% Container Scanning: Security Policy Implications for Global Supply Chains, quantified the impact of increased security procedures for incoming freight containers on US-based companies.

My SCM education has given me tools that allow for a deeper and more meaningful search for business solutions to drive the supply chain organization forward.
Randy Fike, SCM 05 Worldwide Supply Chain Strategy Manager, Lexmark

supply chain volatility amplification

Students in the SCM class of 2009 play the beer game (above) demonstrating the bullwhip effect in supply chainthe amplification of orders as one gets upstream and away from the consumer. Image courtesy of L. Barry Hetherington The graph (right) shows an instance of this amplification in the automotive machine tool industry.
80 60 40 20 0

% change year over year
















-20 -40 -60 -80


% change in gdp % change in vehicle production % change in machine tools orders

Anderson, E., C. Fine, and G. Parker, Upstream Volatility in the Supply Chain: The Machine Tool Industry as a Case Study, Production and Operations Management, 9(3), 239-261, Fall 2000.

Major Greg Holt (SCM 2005) wrote home on August 1, 2008, that among his many other current duties he conducts logistics analysis of traffic patterns to restore a healthy flow of goods between factories and markets, and is using the lessons of ESD.260 in Iraq. (Greg Holt served as a Special Forces officer in two combat tours in Afghanistan and Iraq from 2002 to 2004. He re-joined the Army after finishing his MLOG degree to serve a 3rd combat tour in Fallujah, Iraq.)

32 :: 33 MIT Engineering Systems Division

Global Reach

The Engineering Systems Division forges partnerships with industries, governments, and academic institutions throughout the world, developing communities of researchers and educators focused on systems challenges of global importance.
Subra Suresh, Director, National Science Foundation; Former Dean of the School of Engineering, MIT

10 9 8

11 12 1

2 3 4

Cambridge, USA ESD Headquarters at MIT

Many of the ideas being explored and the methods being developed within the Engineering Systems Division are designed to be put to use in systems that span the globe.
Expanding the reach of engineering systems by working with industry, government, and international organizations is central to the mission of the Engineering Systems Division. Large-scale problems require large-scale experiments, and ESD is utilizing large-scale projects that employ whole communities of academics, industry experts, and government partners to integrate research with education. Rather than confining research to the classical laboratory within the university, many ESD researchers laboratory is the real world, and their research is performed in the very environments that their ideas and solutions are designed to influence.

10 9 8

11 12 1

2 3 4

Lisbon, Portugal MIT Portugal +5hrs

10 9 8

11 12 1

2 3 4

Zaragoza, Spain MIT-Zaragoza International Logistics Program +6hrs

10 9 8

11 12 1

2 3 4

Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates Masdar Initiative +8hrs

10 9 8

11 12 1

2 3 4

Shanghai, China LFM China +12hrs

10 9 8

11 12 1

2 3 4

Bogot, Colombia The Center for Latin-American Logistics -1hr

34 :: 35

Global Supply Chain and Logistics Excellence Network

The Global Supply Chain and Logistics Excellence (SCALE) Network is an international alliance of three leading research and education centers founded and organized by the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. Members are dedicated to sustainable global economic growth through the development of supply chain and logistics knowledge, technology, and processesand to their dissemination though education and training.

MIT Engineering Systems Division

Member centers:
The MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics in Cambridge, MA. Widely recognized as an international leader in transportation, logistics, and supply chain management research and education, the center manages the Supply Chain Exchange, a consortium of more than 50 partner companies. The center also helps coordinate the extensive transportation and logistics research and educational offerings conducted throughout MIT. The Zaragoza Logistics Center (ZLC) is home of the MIT-Zaragoza International Logistics Program in Zaragoza, Spain. This research and education partnership, launched in 2003, brings academia, industry, and government together to experiment with new logistics processes, concepts, and technologies. It is in the process of moving into the center of PLAZA, the largest logistics park in Europe, home to more than 300 logistics and distribution installations, using these companies as a living laboratory. In 2006, the ZLC was designated by the Spanish government as its national Center of Excellence in Logistics. The Center for Latin-American Logistics Innovation in Bogot, Colombia. Founded in 2008, this center, which is housed in LOGyCA, is the focal point of a network of Latin American universities engaged in supply chain management education and research. Current projects center on critical infrastructure, urban transportation, and operational risk managementbalancing a global perspective with Latin-American needs. Less than six months after its founding, the CLI was designated by the Colombian government as its Logistics Center of Excellence. The $36 million SCALE program involves dozens of European and LatinAmerican universities, more than 15 supporting companies in Spain and six in Colombia, and more than 20 public agencies and NGOs. The Zaragoza program involves more than 20 faculty members locally, while dozens of faculty members across Latin America are involved in the Colombia program.

The MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics

Global Reach
scale network

The Center for Latin-American Logistics Innovation Degrees Offered   MIT-CLI Supplemental Master Certificate in International Logistics and Supply Chain Management  MIT-CLI Supplemental PhD Certificate in International Logistics and Supply Chain Management

Faculty, researchers, students, and affiliated companies from all three centers pool their expertise and share in learning through joint projects, student exchanges, faculty visits and multi-continent corporate events. Together the centers collaborate on the development of tools and processes that help retailers, manufacturers, suppliers, and carriers thrive in an increasingly complex and competitive business environmentand in a sustainable fashion.
The LOGyCA campus contains several demonstrations of using advanced information technologies in logistics application, including several simulated store formats, a hospital and a warehouse. Pictured: an RFIDenabled simulated supermarket where alternative software solutions can be tested. Courtesy of LOGyCA

The Zaragoza Logistics Center will be situated in the PLAZA logistics park (far left) in Zaragoza, embodying the university within the laboratory concept. Zaragoza University (left).

The MIT-Zaragoza International Logistics Program Degrees Offered  MIT-Zaragoza Master of Logistics & Supply Chain Management (ZLOG)  MIT-Zaragoza PhD in Logistics and Supply Chain Management  Master de Logistica (MdL)

MLOG students (below) visit the Barcelona port as part of the annual student exchange with the Zaragoza Logistics Center.

SCALE Projects:
Culture of Risk This effort explores how the concepts of risk, as well as business continuity planning and risk management differ across the globe. One major question of this research is whether the risk management culture of a multi-national company dominates that of the local culture where a facility is located. The project consists of research teams in four continents (North America, Latin America, Europe, and Asia) interviewing corporations and developing models to understand how risk is measured, monitored, and managed. Health Care Delivery in Emerging Markets This set of projects, based out of the Zaragoza Logistics Center in Spain, is determining the best way for drugs to be distributed within emerging markets. The key issue is to understand how the supply chain needs to be designed (including the set of proper incentives) in order to maximize the number of patients reached. A series of controlled experiments testing different incentive schemes and supply chain designs are being run in Ghana, Zambia, and Uganda. Critical Infrastructures Infrastructure developments in emerging economies do not necessarily need to follow the same path as in Western nations. Cell phone adoption within Africa is the quintessential example of new technology leapfrogging older technologies in emerging markets. This project examines how innovation in logistics and transportation infrastructure differs across various geographies and conditions. Research teams in the US, South America, and Europe are examining how the development and location of transportation links, logistics parks, and related I/T infrastructure can shape local economic development. Luis Gutirrez

Courtesy of PhD student Irene Ferreira

36 :: 37

MIT Portugal
The MIT Portugal Program is a $40 million international collaboration in which MIT and government, academia, and industry in Portugal work together to develop education and research programs related to engineering systems. It aims to demonstrate that a strategic investment in science, technology, and higher education can have a positive, lasting impact on a nations economy by addressing key societal issues through education and research in the emerging field of engineering systems. The program involves more than 50 MIT faculty members and 180 faculty and researchers in seven Portuguese universities, and has already attracted more than 20 supporting companies.

MIT Engineering Systems Division

The programs four initial focus areas all employ engineering systems approaches:
Bioengineering Systems Understanding the key performance drivers of the biotechnology/bioengineering sector is critical to Portugal, which has targeted this sector as an economic development priority. In addition to promoting technological innovation, MIT Portugal researchers are developing measurement tools to assess innovation in bioengineering and to determine how technological advances translate into competitive advantage. Engineering Design and Advanced Manufacturing Researchers are developing methodologies that support decision making in dynamic supply networks in order to increase flexibility and achieve high levels of global network efficiency. Companies in the automotive industry have been used as pilot case studies, and specific logistic and operations management problems have been selected to demonstrate the potential of the approaches in practice. Sustainable Energy Systems MIT and participating Portuguese universities are developing a new generation of energy professionals focused on the engineering systems aspects of energy systems design. Collaborative research involving industry and governments is grouped into three areas: energy planning (including economics), sustainable built environment, and smart energy networks.

Global Reach
mit portugal

Degrees Offered  PhD programs in:  Bioengineering Systems  Engineering Design and Advanced ManufacturingLeaders for Technical Industries  Sustainable Energy Systems  Transportation Systems  Masters/Advanced Postgraduate programs in:  Complex Transport Infrastructure Systems (Transportation Systems)  Sustainable Energy Systems  Technology Management Enterprise (Engineering Design and Advanced Manufacturing)

Transportation Systems MIT is working together with Portuguese universities to develop a cadre of transportation researchers and professionals in Portugal who are trained at the system level in the design and management of a technologyintensive, intermodal transportation system. The approach combines traditional engineering courses with insights into management and finance, as well as policy and regulation.

The Engineering Systems Anchor Program consists of a set of projects and educational initiatives that creates linkages and synergies between the four tracks of the MIT Portugal Program.

The MIT Portugal Program will promote a new research and education agenda on engineering systems, involving consortia of Portuguese universities and giving emphasis to large-scale systems that not only have critical technological components, but also have significant enterprise and socio-technical-level interactions, in a way that will promote new engineering research in Europe.
Manuel Heitor Secretary of State for Science, Technology, and Higher Education Government of Portugal (2006) MIT-Portugal

P r o gram

Determinants and measurements of innovation in bioengineering: A cross-national study of successful and unsuccessful efforts to create an innovation scorecard. The research developed a web-based tool to serve as repository of the data collected during the course of the project. This tool will also allow data to be retrieved and displayed according to the metrics developed.

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A n c h o r

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Remote islands face unique challenges in meeting growing energy needs while minimizing environmental impact as energy costs skyrocket. With the cooperation of local energy companies, government, and residents, MIT Portugal researchers are working to develop and implement an energy strategy on the remote Portuguese islands of the Azores that seeks to meet a majority of the islands energy needs with local resources. Research on robust, cost-effective and implementable energy strategies for the Azores will serve as a model for other regions. CityMotion: Using real time data feeds, this project aims to improve the public transportation system performance in major Portuguese cities. The data feeds are based on cell phone usage, GPS data, roadside RFID readers, and a variety of sensors. A pilot application will provide users with timely data to plan trips through the city using multiple modes of public transportation.

Image courtesy of MIT Portugal Rui Vale Sousa

Image Courtesy of MIT Portugal

Lightweight materials in automotive body component: Three Portuguese universities, MIT, INTELI, and industrial affiliates teamed up to develop an evaluation methodology for alternative materials in engineering applications that incorporates performance, cost, and environmental impact perspectives. Christine Balderas

38 :: 39 MIT Engineering Systems Division

ESD 2020

The years between the present and 2020 offer engineering the opportunity to strengthen its leadership role in society and to define an engineering career as one of the most influential and valuable in society and one that is attractive for the best and the brightest.
The Engineer of 2020: Visions of Engineering in the New Century (NAE, 2004)

The Engineering Systems Division has taken up the gauntletworking to prepare engineers not only as technical experts but as effective leaders who can guide industry, government, and other organizations in the development and application of technologies to tackle societys challenges.
Managing the entry of more than a billion people into the middle class while mitigating the impact on resource availability and the environment; improving health care provision in all parts of the world; providing affordable goods everywhere on the planet; and offering mobility and accessibility for human activities are just some of the challenges facing the global community in the 21st century. As the world attens, ESD is at the forefront, providing the tools and framing the analyses that can improve many of the engineering systems that elevate the human condition.

As part of its mission, ESD is working with other universities to advance the engineering systems discipline. In 2004, ESD founded the Council of Engineering Systems Universities (CESUN), which now has 50 member universities around the world. CESUN provides mechanisms for academic cooperation on an institutional level as well as for the joint furtherance of engineering systems as a discipline.

Book Series
In conjunction with the MIT Press, ESD has launched an engineering systems book series. The series has an editorial board chaired by Joel Moses of MIT and includes Richard de Neufville (MIT), Manuel Hector (IST, Lisbon), Granger Morgan (CMU), Elisabeth Pat-Cornell (Stanford), and William Rouse (Georgia Tech). The rst books in the series are likely to be: Nancy Leveson System Safety Richard de Neufville and Stefan Scholtes Engineering Design with Real Options Olivier de Weck and Edward Crawley Principles and Methods for System Design and Management

The Masdar Institute of Science and Technology was established in 2006, in partnership with MIT, as part of an ambitious project to build the worlds greenest city. Abu Dhabis Masdar City aims to be the worlds rst zero-carbon, zero-waste, car-free city. This $42 million MIT project involves over 50 faculty members, and has already effected the hiring of 25 faculty members (eight of whom have PhDs from MIT) at the Masdar Institute. Picture shows an architects rendering of a street in Masdar City. With permission from Foster + Partners.

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Engineering Systems The Fundamentals of a Developing Field

Engineering systems differ fundamentally from purely physical, chemical, or biological systems in that their underlying structures, behaviors, and evolutionary patterns are not encoded in a DNA-like substance that can be sequenced, analyzed, and replicated in a laboratory. Difficult-to-quantify human conduct is woven into the very fabric of engineering systems. Consequently, ESD uses an expanded set of tools to understand and simulate the behavior of such systems and ultimately predict their performance. The nature of many ESD projects is such that small-scale laboratory experiments are not meaningful or helpful to the researchers. These ingnieurs sans labos work closely with industry and government using the world as their laboratory; there are more than 100 companies working closely with the various ESD programs. Such a style of research and education is one of the hallmarks of ESD. Engineering systems approaches require, in many cases, methods that are beyond the state-of-the-art due to size and complexity. In these cases, domain knowledge is used to facilitate the solution methodfor example by restricting the feasible region through innovative cuts or applying domain-valid problem decompositions. We cannot yet articulate the Kirchhoffs laws or the second law in thermodynamics that are applicable to all engineering systems. We can, however, make general statements that apply to most systems. For example, one cannot improve on a set of optimal solutions by adding constraints to a problems feasible region; and, by and large, statements about aggregate sets of random variables are at least as accurate as the same statements made about disaggregate subsets. And Littles law in queuing theory may be an example of a universal systems principle. Beyond this, systems researchers have made significant progress in articulating phenomena or effects that occur in complex engineering systemssuch as the bullwhip effect in supply chains, the coalescence of change networks in highly coupled technical systems, the feedback loops underlying complex systems safety, the principles of real options-oriented design for uncertainty, and the recovery dynamics of enterprises subjected to major disruptions. A number of these effects have been well-described and observed in practice, but their onset and mitigation are not yet fully understood since they are clearly rooted in the systems architecture as much as in the organizational culture and incentives of the various stakeholders. Going forward, our understanding of engineering systems will continue to grow as we discover and describe principles and propertiesequipping engineers to address significant global problems and build a sustainable future.

MIT Engineering Systems Division


ESD 2020

team esd
Shown is a 2008 social network of ESD faculty and teaching staff. Each node represents a faculty member; two individuals are connected by a link if they served together on one or more of the 46 past or 62 present ESD doctoral committees (starting in 2004). Note that the network is fully connected with an edge to node ratio of 3:1, suggesting a high level of faculty collaboration in the development of the field of engineering systems. School of Engineering S  loan School of Management S  chool of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, School of Science

ESD Faculty and Teaching Staff

Professor Emeritus Thomas J. Allen, PhD Professor George E. Apostolakis, PhD Assistant Professor Hamsa Balakrishnan, PhD Professor Cynthia Barnhart, PhD Senior Lecturer Chris Caplice, PhD Professor John Stephen Carroll, PhD Professor Joel P. Clark, ScD Senior Lecturer Joseph F. Coughlin, PhD Professor Edward F. Crawley, ScD Associate Professor M.L. Cummings, PhD Professor Michael A. Cusumano, PhD Professor Richard de Neufville, PhD Associate Professor Olivier L. de Weck, PhD Professor Thomas W. Eagar, PhD Professor Steven D. Eppinger, ScD Associate Professor John Fernandez Senior Lecturer Frank R. Field, III, PhD Professor Charles H. Fine, PhD Senior Lecturer Stan Neil Finkelstein, MD Associate Professor Daniel Frey, PhD Lecturer Jarrod Goentzel, PhD Assistant Professor Marta Gonzlez, PhD Professor Stephen C. Graves, PhD Senior Lecturer Patrick Hale Professor Robert J. Hansman Jr., PhD Professor David E. Hardt, PhD Professor Daniel E. Hastings, PhD Professor Thomas Anton Kochan, PhD Professor Paul A. Lagac, PhD Professor Richard Charles Larson, PhD Professor Donald Lessard, PhD Professor Nancy G. Leveson, PhD Professor Seth Lloyd, PhD Professor Stuart E. Madnick, PhD Professor of the Practice Christopher L. Magee, PhD Professor David H. Marks, PhD Professor David A. Mindell, PhD Professor Sanjoy K. Mitter, PhD Professor Fred Moavenzadeh, PhD Professor Ernest J. Moniz, PhD Institute Professor Joel Moses, PhD Professor Dava Newman, PhD Professor of the Practice Deborah J. Nightingale, PhD Associate Professor Kenneth A. Oye, PhD Senior Lecturer Donna H. Rhodes, PhD Professor Daniel Roos, PhD Senior Lecturer Donald B. Rosenfield, PhD Professor Warren P. Seering, PhD Assistant Professor Noelle Eckley Selin, PhD Professor Yossi Sheffi, PhD Professor David Simchi-Levi, PhD Professor Anthony Sinskey, ScD Professor John Sterman, PhD Professor Joseph M. Sussman, PhD Assistant Professor Jessika Trancik, PhD Professor James M. Utterback, PhD Professor Eric A. von Hippel, PhD Professor David Wallace, PhD Assistant Professor Mort David Webster, PhD Assistant Professor Annalisa L. Weigel, PhD Professor Roy E. Welsch, PhD Senior Lecturer Daniel E. Whitney, PhD Institute Professor Sheila E. Widnall, ScD Associate Professor John R. Williams, PhD Assistant Professor Maria Yang, PhD Assistant Professor Christopher Zegras, PhD

Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineering Systems Division web: email:

1948 1954 1961 1971

Norbert Wiener publishes Cybernetics

Henry M. Paynter establishes one of the rst systems courses

Jay Forrester publishes Industrial Dynamics

Alfred H. Keil establishes the Center for Policy Alternatives

1973 1975 1985 1988

Center for Transportation Studies is founded

Technology and Policy Program is founded

Center for Technology, Policy, and Industrial Development is formed

The Leaders for Manufacturing Program is launched

1989 1991 1993 1996

MIT Commission on Industrial Productivity publishes Made in America

Technology, Management, and Policy Program (TMP) PhD is founded

The School of Engineering publishes Engineering with a Big E

The Eagar Committee recommends the creation of ESD

1996 1998 1998 2000

MITs System Design and Management Program is founded

Master of Engineering in Logistics Program is founded

The Engineering Systems Division is founded

First tenured dual faculty hired by ESD

2004 2004 2008

ESD Doctoral Program is established, incorporating the TMP

Council of Engineering Systems Universities is launched

Two dual junior faculty tenured at ESD



Impact CO released Energy used

Amount 2.47

Units Lbs.

Savings over virgin coated paper 12% 19%

Cert no. SW-COC-002514

21,428 BTU 71% non-renewable 29% renewable 2.87 10.67 Lbs. Gallons

Wood used Water used

30% 18%

Based on the Environmental Defense Fund Paper Calculator; veried by Utopia.