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All Interested Parties John McLaughlin, McLaughlin & Associates Massachusetts Special Election Survey – Executive Summary June 7, 2013

This survey of political attitudes was conducted among 400 likely special election voters in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts on June 4th and 5th, 2013. This survey was organized and funded by John Jordan, a Republican donor and activist. Interview selection was random within predetermined election units. Eighty percent (n = 320) of the interviews were conducted via landline telephone by professional interviewers. Twenty percent (n=80) of the interviews were conducted on cell-phones. These samples were then combined and structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a statewide general election. The accuracy of the sample of 400 likely voters in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is within +/- 4.9%, at a 95% confidence interval. Survey Summary: The results of our survey show the new comer, Republican Gabriel Gomez, has stolen the momentum in the special election to be held on June 25th. Gomez and long time Democratic Congressman Ed Markey are in a statistical dead heat, with Gomez receiving 44.3%, Markey 45.3%, and 10.5% undecided.
“If the special election were held today, which one of the following best describes how you are likely to vote in the special election for United States Senate between (ROTATE) Gabriel Gomez, the Republican candidate and Ed Markey, the Democratic candidate?

COMBO GABRIEL GOMEZ Definitely Vote Gomez Probably Vote Gomez Lean Gomez COMBO ED MARKEY Definitely Vote Markey Probably Vote Markey Lean Markey UNDECIDED

TOTAL 44% 31% 10% 4% 45% 28% 11% 6% 11%

__________________________________________________________________ 919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447 566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, NY 10913 * Phone: 845-365-2000 * FAX: 845-365-2008

Ed Markey’s high unfavorable ratings are clearly impacting his ballot rating. With a one-to-one favorable to unfavorable rating, Ed Markey will have a difficult time increasing his ballot share. What’s more, the intensity lies with Markey’s unfavorable rating, as the plurality of voters, 29%, is “very unfavorable” to Markey. Opinion Ed Markey:
FAVORABLE Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable UNFAVORABLE Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable NEVER HEARD OF NO OPINION TOTAL 42% 18% 25% 42% 13% 29% 14% 2%

Conversely, nearly half of the voters, 48%, are favorable to Gabriel Gomez, and he receives a relatively low unfavorable rating of 27%. With a high favorable rating and low unfavorable rating, Gabriel Gomez is giving the voters a strong alternative to Ed Markey. Opinion Gabriel Gomez:
FAVORABLE Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable UNFAVORABLE Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable NEVER HEARD OF NO OPINION TOTAL 48% 21% 28% 27% 12% 15% 22% 3%

Conclusion: With less than 3 weeks to go to Election Day, Gabriel Gomez has the momentum in the race. Gomez’s high favorable ratings will be a strong asset over Markey’s high unfavorable ratings in this neck-and-neck race.

__________________________________________________________________ 919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447 566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, NY 10913 * Phone: 845-365-2000 * FAX: 845-365-2008

Demographics: Age
18 – 30 31 – 40 41 – 55 56 – 65 Over 65 TOTAL 10% 18% 23% 25% 19%

Party Registration
Republican Democrat Independent / Unenrolled DK/Refused TOTAL 17% 36% 45% 2%

Gender
Male Female TOTAL 47% 53%

Phone Usage
USE CELL PHONE MORE Only Use Cell Phone Mostly Use Cell Phone BOTH EQUALLY USE LANDLINE MORE Mostly Use Landline Only Use Landline TOTAL 31% 11% 20% 40% 26% 19% 7%

Race
White Hispanic African American Other DK/Refused TOTAL 69% 9% 6% 5% 12%

__________________________________________________________________ 919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447 566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, NY 10913 * Phone: 845-365-2000 * FAX: 845-365-2008

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