# Transport

Modelling
A brief note for urban Transport
Course,
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia

By
Riza Atiq Rahmat
2013

Transport modelling
Trip Generation

Trip Distribution

Modal Split

Trip Assignment

High density developments generate more trips than low density developments

1

Origin

Destination

Production and attraction

Destination 1

Origin

Destination 2

Destination 2

Trip Distribution

Mode 1

Origin

Modal Split

Origin

Mode 2

Destination

Mode 3

Destination

Trip Assignment

2

Trip Generation Model
Home-based

Trips

Non-home-based

To work
To go home
To school
To shopping centre

Percentage of Home-based Trips

City

Percentage

Year

85.8

1980

Johannesburg

84.1

1980

Kuala Lumpur

80.5

1985

High plot ratio zones generate more trips than low plot ratio

3

Percentage of Trip Purposes
City

Trip Purposes
Work

School

Private

Others

Chicago

37.5

4.0

9.7

41.7

7.1

Detroit

41.6

6.3

8.6

34.0

9.5

34.8

13.0

6.2

38.0

8.0

Johannesburg
(Blacks)
Johannesburg
(Whites)
Washington,
D.C.
Kuala Lumpur

51.3

35.6

2.4

8.2

2.5

30.7

20.4

7.0

35.0

6.9

43.1

9.4

9.6

26.7

11.2

29.2

21.2

6.3

26.5

16.8

Work Trip

4

f (Trip Production) =
Household income, household size,
Car ownership, number of working person in the
household ………….

Socio-economic

f (Trip Attraction) =
Land-use characteristic

Ti = 880 + 0.115Aoffice + 0.145Ashoppingc +
0.0367Amanufacturing

Linear Regression Model
5

Y
D7
D1

D5
D1

D2

D4

D6
D1

D1

D1

D1

D3
D1

X

The best line – the line that minimise D1
+ D2 + D3 + ... + D7

R2 = 1 - maximum correlation between Y and X
R2 = 0 - no correlation

t-statistic
Regression parameter
t =
Standard error of the parameter

6

Model development
1. Observe any relationship between parameters
Non-linear relationship could be linearised
Y = aX

log Y = log a + b log X

30
25
Log Y

Y

20

Y = abX

15
10
5
0
0

5

10

1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4

15

Log Y = Log a + X Log b
0

5

X

log (Y)

80
Y

Y = aXb

40
20
0
0

5

15

X

100

60

10

10

2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5

15

Log Y = Log a + b Log X

0

0.2

0.4

X

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

log (X)

2

5
4

Y = 1 / (a + bX)

1.5

Y

1/Y

3

1

2
0.5

1
0

1/Y = a + bX

0

0

2

4

6
X

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

X

7

2. Produce Correlation matrix
Car ownership
Car ownership
Household
income
Number of
houses
Number of
worker
Production

Household Number Number of Production
income
of houses worker

1
0.995135

1

-0.80885

-0.81603

-0.30011

-0.30901 0.240331

-0.81724

-0.82478

1
1

0.98193 0.409236

1

3. Compute each of the parameters of the
potential regression equations.
4. Check the following criteria:
(a) The model R2.
(b) Sign convention (- / +)
(c) Reasonable intercept
(d) Are the regression parameters statistically
significant?

8

Example
zo
Car
ne ownership
1
1.1

Household Number of
income
houses
3555
2350

Number of
workers
235

Daily
production
6655

2

1.2

4303

2587

358

7415

3

1.5

7101

2605

417

7598

4

1.7

9111

2498

512

7412

5

1.8

9502

2788

419

8112

6

1.5

7105

2358

235

6625

7

1.8

10052

1988

265

5730

8

2.1

12513

1058

158

3089

9

2.3

14217

1187

254

3588

10

2.7

19221

825

487

2950

11

1.2

4339

2687

987

8655

12

0.8

1305

2350

857

7546

13

0.7

1198

2879

125

7901

14

1.5

7211

1987

847

6612

15

2.1

12589

897

254

2798

16

0.8

1121

2987

748

9731

17

1.8

9083

1578

547

5012

18

1.9

11041

1278

389

4021

19

1.6

8151

1380

587

4525

20

1.9

11051

1089

457

3605

9

Correlation matrix
Car ownership
Car ownership
Household
income
Number of
houses
Number of
worker
Production

Household Number Number of Production
income
of houses worker

1
0.995135

1

-0.80885

-0.81603

-0.30011

-0.30901 0.240331

-0.81724

-0.82478

1
1

0.98193 0.409236

1

Commercial area attract trips in the morning and produce trip in the afternoon

10

Output Regression
Regression Statistics
Multiple R

0.99801829

R Square

0.996040507

Square
Standard Error

0.995574685
141.4405503

Observations

20

ANOVA
Df
Regression

SS
2

MS

85552805.7 42776403

Residual

17 340092.2977 20005.43

Total

19

Coefficients

F

Significance
F
2138.24 3.80133E-21

85892898

Standard
Error
101.229828

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95% Upper 95%

-1.0056

0.328709 -315.3730381 111.78009

Intercept

-101.796472

X Variable 1

2.719828956 0.045600893

59.6442

3.45E-21 2.623619347 2.8160386

X Variable 2

1.594915849 0.136378382 11.69478

1.49E-09 1.307182213 1.8826495

R2 = 0.9956 → The model is very good

t-test Number for Houses is 59.64, Number of workers is
11.69 and the intercept is -1.0056 at 95% confident limit.
t-test at degree of freedom 20 – 2 = 18 is 2.10 → the
intercept is not significant.
11

t-Distribution

12

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.997900286
R Square
0.995804981
0.940016369
Square
Standard
141.4846514
Error
Observations
20
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS

MS

F

Significance
F
2 85532575.68 42766288 2136.40 3.82911E-21
2
18 360322.3185 20017.91
20
85892898

Coefficients

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2

Standard
t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Error
0
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
2.685964254 0.030756216 87.33078 4.13E- 2.621347791 2.7505807
25
1.539715572 0.124882111 12.32935 3.26E- 1.277347791 1.8020834
10

Trip Production = 2.6859 HH
+ 1.5397 Number of workers

Residential area produces trips in the morning and attracts trips in the afternoon

13

Category analysis
Categorising land-use
Type of land-use

Daily production

Morning peak
production / hr
1.26

Semi-detached

1.46

16.37

Apartment

1.03

4.87

Low cost house

1.48

7.35

8.16

Source: Kementerian Kerja Raya

14

Trip Distribution Model
Tij

Destination
O
R
I
G
I
N

j

1

2

3

n

1
2
3

T11
T21
T31

T12
T22
T32

T13
T23
T33

n

Tn1

Tn2

Tn3

Tnn

Pn

Tij

A1

A2

A3

An

W

i

Tij = Pi
j

Tij = Aj
i

 W = T = Pi = Aj
i

j

i

j

15

( T11 + T12 + T13 + T14 + -- + T1n )
+ ( T21 + T22 + T23 + T24 + -- + T2n )
+ ( T31 + T32 + T33 + T34 + -- + T3n )
+ ….
+ ( Tn1 + Tn2 + Tn3 + Tn4 + -- + Tnn ) = W

or
P1 + P2 + P3 + P4 + P5 + ……. + Pn = W
or
A1 + A2 + A3 +A4 + A5 + ……….+ An = W

16

Matrix Balancing
Production Attraction
560
1250
750
530
1105
430
545
540
450
1200
1040
500
4450
4450

1
2
3
4
5
6

1
2
3
4
157
67
54
68
211
89
72
91
310 132 107 134
153
65
53
66
126
54
43
55
292 124 100 126
1250 530 430 540

5
6
151
63 560
202
84 750
298 124 1105
147
61 545
121
51 450
280 117 1040
1200 500 4450

Production

Attraction

1250 x 1040 / 4450 = 292

1250 x 450 / 4450 = 126
17

Gravity Model
m1 m2
F=G

D2

Pi Aj
Tij = K
f(Rij)

Traffic from one origin is distributed to all possible destinations

18

Gravity Model: Production Constrain

Tij = K
j

Pi  Aj
j

f(Rij)

Tij = Pi
1
Ki =
 Aj / f(Rij)
j

Aj / f(Rij)
Tij = Pi
 Aj / f(Rij)
j

19

Gravity Model: Attraction Constrain

1
Kj =

 Pi / f(Rij)
i

Pi / f(Rij)
Tij = Aj

 Pi / f(Rij)
i

Trips in on attraction are coming from all possible origins

20

Gravity Model : Double Constrain
Pi Aj
Tij = Ki Kj
f(Rij)
1
Ki =

 Kj Aj / f(Rij)
j

1
Kj =

 Ki Pi / f(Rij)
i

21

Example
Input : Trip Generation
Zone Production Attraction
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

1100000
650000
542000
498000
510000
250000
325000
3875000

2600000
250000
210000
320000
210000
135000
150000
3875000

Output 1 : O-D Matrix
Destination
1
1
2
3

Origin

738065
436129
363665

2

70968
41935
34968

3

59613
35226
29373

334142 32129 26988
5 342194 32903 27639
6 167742 16129 13548
7 218065 20968 17613
2600000 250000 210000
4

4

90839
53677
44759

5

59613
35226
29373

6

38323
22645
18883

7

42581 1100000
25161 650000
20981 542000

41125 26988 17350 19277 498000
42116 27639 17768 19742 510000
20645 13548
8710
9677 250000
26839 17613 11323 12581 325000
320000 210000 135000 150000 3875000

22

Output 2: Desire Line

Desire lines indicate future transport demand. The lines’ thickness
are scaled to the trip interchanges between O-D pairs. The lines are
very important to show visually where to propose future transport
facilities.

23

Modal Split Model
Decision Structure

All Trips
Choice

Non-motorised

Motorised trip
Choice

Public

Private
Choice

Choice

Bus

Rail based

M / Cycle

Car

Use public transport or private car
24

To choose: Walking or ride a vehicle
Distance
(m)
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
600
700
800
900
1000

Share of trips by
walking
0.95
0.92
0.88
0.83
0.77
0.7
0.61
0.5
0.39
0.27
0.17
0.09
0.06
0.04

Walking or bus
25

1

Share of trips by walking

0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0

200

400

600

800

1000

Distance (m)

Walking or boarding
the bus?

26

1
P =
1+De

( Distance)

Calibration:
( 1 – P)/P = D e( Distance)
ln [ (1-P)/P ] = ln D +  Distance

Y = mX + C

Linear regression analysis

27

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.989694148
R Square
0.979494507
0.977785716
Square
Standard
0.292947102
Error
Observations
14
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
1 49.1916 49.1916
12 1.02981 0.08582
13 50.2215

Coefficients
Intercept
X Variable 1

Standar t Stat
d Error
2.920840037 0.14545 20.0808
-5.722665616 0.23902 -23.9418
4

ln D = 2.920840037
D = 18.5569

F
573.2091

P-value
1.33E-10
1.69E-11

Significance F
1.69E-11

Lower 95%

Upper
95%
2.603922 3.237758
-6.24345 -5.20188

 = -5.72266562

1
P =

1 + 18.5569 e(-5.72266562 Distance)

28

Stated preference Survey
Methods for measuring non-market benefits
Recall revealed preference

Guide line

Minimize non-response
Personal interviews
Pretest for interviewer effects etc.
Referendum format
Remind of substitute commodities
Include & explain non-response option

29

Travel between Bangi and Putrajaya
If there is an LRT service between Bangi and Putrajaya
If LRT ticket is RM 2.90 for the journey and certain
reduction in travel time if a traveller shift from bus to the
proposed LRT:
Bus fare LRT fare Reduction in
% of bus
travel time passengers shift to
LRT
1
1.60
2.90
0
4.3%
2
1.60
2.90
5
6.9%
3
1.60
2.90
10
10.9%
4
1.60
2.90
15
16.7%
5
1.60
2.90
20
24.9%
6
1.60
2.90
25
35.3%
7
1.60
2.90
30
51.0%
8
1.60
2.90
40
75.0%
If reduction in travel time is 20 minutes and the proposed
LRT fare as follows:
Bus fare LRT fare Reduction in
% of bus
travel time passengers shift to
LRT
1
1.60
2.00
20
26.1%
2
1.60
2.25
20
25.9%
3
1.60
2.50
20
25.8%
4
1.60
2.75
20
25.6%
5
1.60
3.00
20
25.4%
6
1.60
3.25
20
25.3%
7
1.60
3.50
20
25.1%
8
1.60
3.75
20
25.0%
1
P =

1 + D e( Cost +  Time)
30

(1-P)/P

ln((1-P)/P) Fare

Reduction of
differences travel time
3.09790129
1.30
0

1

22.15

2

13.46 2.599770506

1.30

5

3

8.18 2.101639722

1.30

10

4

4.97 1.603508939

1.30

15

5

3.02 1.105378155

1.30

20

6

1.84 0.607247371

1.30

25

7

0.96 -0.040005335

1.30

30

8

0.33 -1.098612289

1.30

40

1

2.83 1.040989873

0.40

20

2

2.86 1.049455984

0.65

20

3

2.88 1.057922096

0.90

20

4

2.90 1.066388207

1.15

20

5

2.93 1.074854319

1.40

20

6

2.95 1.083320431

1.65

20

7

2.98 1.091786542

1.90

20

8

3.00 1.100252654

2.15

20

X1

X2

31

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.999739
R Square
0.999479
Square
0.999399
Standard Error
0.010826
Observations
16
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2

2
13
15

SS
MS
F
2.922473 1.46123629 12468.41
0.001524 0.00011720
2.923996

Standard
Coefficients
Error
1.741845 0.010741
0.145515 0.006679
-0.04766 0.000305

t Stat
162.17302
21.788274
-156.33184

P-value
7.02E-23
1.29E-11
1.13E-22

Significance
F
4.57E-22

Lower 95%
1.718641
0.131087
-0.04832

Upper
Lower
Upper
95%
95.0%
95.0%
1.765048 1.718641 1.765048
0.159943 0.131087 0.159943
-0.047 -0.04832
-0.047

 = 0.145515 ,  = -0.04766
D = eksp(1.741845) = 5.707863.

1
P =

1 + D e( Cost +  Time)

32

Travel time value

1
P =

1 + D e( Cost +  Time)

Cost and time are two different dimensions

/ is considered a Transformation Factor to
convert time into monitory value.

33

Trip Assignment
Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3
Zone 5

Zone 4

Zone 1
Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

Zone 5

200

150

300

350

250

50

120

180

220

Zone 2

450

Zone 3

550

600

Zone 4

290

310

420

Zone 5

370

410

530

70
610

34

Minimum path tree for zone 1

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3
Zone 5

Zone 4
Minimum path tree
from zone 1 to all
other zones.

35

Volume = 200+150+300+350= 1000

Zon
1

Zone 2

Volume =
200+150+300=
350
Volume =
200
Volume = 150+300
= 450

Volume =
350

Zone 3

Zone 5
Volume =
300

Zone 4

Volume =
150

36